1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:07,840 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:07,840 --> 00:00:12,840 Speaker 2: Martha Gimble, executive director at the Yell Budget Lab, and Martha, 3 00:00:12,960 --> 00:00:15,040 Speaker 2: I want to get back to terrorists because it's been 4 00:00:15,080 --> 00:00:17,919 Speaker 2: pushed completely aside. We'll get to the war and oil 5 00:00:18,520 --> 00:00:22,439 Speaker 2: in a moment. What is your run rate now of terrorists? 6 00:00:22,520 --> 00:00:26,840 Speaker 2: Do do? I believe you're back to nineteen thirty nine 7 00:00:27,160 --> 00:00:29,880 Speaker 2: on the tariff impact, so. 8 00:00:29,920 --> 00:00:34,240 Speaker 1: It's about nineteen forty three, but you know, nineteen thirty 9 00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:37,000 Speaker 1: nine nineteen forty three, what's a couple of tariff rates 10 00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:39,400 Speaker 1: between friends at this point right? It's high? I think 11 00:00:39,520 --> 00:00:40,400 Speaker 1: is the real point? 12 00:00:40,840 --> 00:00:46,040 Speaker 2: What do we say about the impact on our listeners 13 00:00:46,040 --> 00:00:50,720 Speaker 2: and viewers distracted by five dollars a gallon gas? 14 00:00:51,600 --> 00:00:55,560 Speaker 1: I mean, you're still going to see continually rising prices. 15 00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:57,280 Speaker 1: You know. One of the things that we've been talking 16 00:00:57,360 --> 00:01:00,760 Speaker 1: about is trying to figure out how much of tariffs 17 00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:04,600 Speaker 1: have actually been passed through already. I think the sort 18 00:01:04,600 --> 00:01:07,520 Speaker 1: of back of the envelope easiest number to kind of 19 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:10,360 Speaker 1: fixate on is around fifty percent. It's not exact, but 20 00:01:10,600 --> 00:01:14,360 Speaker 1: gives you an idea, and so you know, you still 21 00:01:14,520 --> 00:01:18,080 Speaker 1: have costs that are waiting to hit the consumer again 22 00:01:18,120 --> 00:01:20,520 Speaker 1: at the same time that you're obviously seeing a lot 23 00:01:20,520 --> 00:01:23,360 Speaker 1: of pressure from energy prices. By the way, Tom, I 24 00:01:23,400 --> 00:01:25,080 Speaker 1: just wanted to you know, you were talking about the 25 00:01:25,120 --> 00:01:28,560 Speaker 1: team just as a measure of the dedication of the team. 26 00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:32,520 Speaker 1: The team was up late last night like incorporating new 27 00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:35,679 Speaker 1: ways of how they realized metal tariffs impact dary. So 28 00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:37,440 Speaker 1: I do just want to say, you know, this is 29 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:39,840 Speaker 1: a team that is always iterating, always trying to make 30 00:01:39,840 --> 00:01:41,520 Speaker 1: sure they're doing this exactly right, and I just want 31 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:42,960 Speaker 1: to give them a huge, huge shout out. 32 00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:44,039 Speaker 2: Martha. 33 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:46,759 Speaker 3: What's the given that we have a one year kind 34 00:01:46,800 --> 00:01:51,440 Speaker 3: of perspective here, what's kind of the layout of who 35 00:01:51,480 --> 00:01:54,960 Speaker 3: really bore these tariff expenses, whether it be the exporter, 36 00:01:55,440 --> 00:01:59,760 Speaker 3: the importer, companies, consumers. How's that shacking out now? 37 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 1: So at this point it's probably, you know, partially consumers. 38 00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:07,440 Speaker 1: You know, prices, for instance, for durable goods do look 39 00:02:07,520 --> 00:02:11,600 Speaker 1: like they've been affected. You've also seen companies trying to 40 00:02:11,680 --> 00:02:15,200 Speaker 1: hold on right because there's been so much uncertainty about 41 00:02:15,200 --> 00:02:18,640 Speaker 1: these tariffs, and companies don't like raising prices if they 42 00:02:18,639 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 1: don't have to write make consumers mad, and so you 43 00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:24,760 Speaker 1: know they've been trying to hold on, but at some 44 00:02:24,760 --> 00:02:26,760 Speaker 1: point the economic pressures become too much and then they 45 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:27,919 Speaker 1: have to raise prices. 46 00:02:28,680 --> 00:02:33,359 Speaker 3: So where do we think we go from here? Give 47 00:02:33,440 --> 00:02:37,040 Speaker 3: us a sense of how constructive or how adamant that 48 00:02:37,160 --> 00:02:43,040 Speaker 3: administration is in terms of imposing these tars. Have they 49 00:02:43,080 --> 00:02:44,600 Speaker 3: been really on top of it? 50 00:02:44,639 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 2: Do you think? 51 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:48,280 Speaker 1: I mean? I think you know at the moment, we 52 00:02:48,360 --> 00:02:50,639 Speaker 1: have these kind of temporary tariffs in place while they 53 00:02:50,639 --> 00:02:53,680 Speaker 1: figure out the new legal authorities they're going to be using. 54 00:02:54,320 --> 00:02:56,639 Speaker 1: I think one thing that's really hard is that at 55 00:02:56,639 --> 00:02:58,560 Speaker 1: this point, I think we have a pretty good sense 56 00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:00,800 Speaker 1: of what the headline tariff number is going to be. 57 00:03:00,960 --> 00:03:04,320 Speaker 1: You know, let's call it somewhere between eleven and fifteen percent. 58 00:03:05,040 --> 00:03:08,080 Speaker 1: But if you're a business that actually doesn't help you 59 00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:10,280 Speaker 1: very much, you don't need to know what the headline 60 00:03:10,320 --> 00:03:13,000 Speaker 1: You know, you and I care. You need to know 61 00:03:13,040 --> 00:03:15,480 Speaker 1: what the effect of tariff rate is for your industry, 62 00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:18,440 Speaker 1: for your products, and there we just have know certainty 63 00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:20,200 Speaker 1: and or we don't know which products are going to 64 00:03:20,240 --> 00:03:20,720 Speaker 1: be targeting. 65 00:03:20,840 --> 00:03:23,760 Speaker 2: To get all McKinley on, you and the President would 66 00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:27,720 Speaker 2: say this, you estimate we're raising nine zero zero, just 67 00:03:27,840 --> 00:03:32,400 Speaker 2: under a trillion dollars out X number of years. By 68 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:36,880 Speaker 2: all of this, with the war, with the massive Pentagon budget, 69 00:03:37,960 --> 00:03:41,440 Speaker 2: are we addicted whether we agree or disagree with tariffs, 70 00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:45,080 Speaker 2: are we now addicted to that tax cash flow? 71 00:03:46,520 --> 00:03:48,440 Speaker 1: I mean, I think you're asking the question that a 72 00:03:48,440 --> 00:03:51,800 Speaker 1: lot of people are starting to kind of whisper to themselves. Right, 73 00:03:51,880 --> 00:03:57,839 Speaker 1: It's really really hard to raise taxes in DC. Economists 74 00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:01,880 Speaker 1: would tell you raise literally any tax except for tariffs. Right. 75 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:05,880 Speaker 1: They're really inefficient, they have really high economic costs. At 76 00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:08,240 Speaker 1: the same time, it seems to be the only tax 77 00:04:08,320 --> 00:04:09,600 Speaker 1: that were able to raise. 78 00:04:10,040 --> 00:04:13,760 Speaker 2: Well. De Paul's good question before given all the distractions, folks, 79 00:04:13,800 --> 00:04:16,160 Speaker 2: the screen that I'm seeing here, I just saw the 80 00:04:16,200 --> 00:04:19,560 Speaker 2: House will not vote on the DHS thing. Ed Ludlow 81 00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:23,039 Speaker 2: just sent me how the Orion mission is going to 82 00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:26,640 Speaker 2: go from seventeen thousand miles per hour to twenty four 83 00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:28,920 Speaker 2: thousand miles per hour. We're going to have Ludlow one 84 00:04:28,960 --> 00:04:32,000 Speaker 2: at nine o'clock hour. I mean, all these distractions, Martha, 85 00:04:32,480 --> 00:04:35,799 Speaker 2: what on a baseball sense, think Ron Darling at Yale 86 00:04:35,920 --> 00:04:39,760 Speaker 2: years ago. On a baseball sense, Martha Gimbal, where are 87 00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:42,920 Speaker 2: we in the tariff impact? Are we like I think 88 00:04:42,960 --> 00:04:45,119 Speaker 2: there's a feeling we're in the ninth inning. I don't 89 00:04:45,120 --> 00:04:47,479 Speaker 2: buy it. Where are we in the tariff effect? 90 00:04:48,400 --> 00:04:50,880 Speaker 1: We're not even at the seventh inning stretch, you know, 91 00:04:51,080 --> 00:04:53,800 Speaker 1: we're you know, only just starting to get there. You 92 00:04:53,880 --> 00:04:58,600 Speaker 1: have to remember, Smoot Holly took years to you know, 93 00:04:58,760 --> 00:05:03,000 Speaker 1: fully incorporate and this is it's not the case that 94 00:05:03,040 --> 00:05:06,599 Speaker 1: you raise tariffs and the effects of those are fully 95 00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:10,120 Speaker 1: incorporated the next day, especially when those tariffs have been 96 00:05:10,160 --> 00:05:13,280 Speaker 1: so uncertain as these have been. I'll get it, No, 97 00:05:13,440 --> 00:05:14,160 Speaker 1: you have no idea what. 98 00:05:14,560 --> 00:05:17,360 Speaker 2: I'll get it out on LinkedIn and Twitter as well. 99 00:05:17,360 --> 00:05:19,560 Speaker 2: It's the budget lab. But yeah, I can't say enough 100 00:05:19,600 --> 00:05:23,000 Speaker 2: about the clarity and this sickness of it. Martha Gimble 101 00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:23,880 Speaker 2: there with a great team.