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Speaker 1: On this episode of news World. The election cycle is

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Speaker 1: clearly beginning, and this Monday, January fifteenth, the Iowa Caucus

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Speaker 1: kicks it all off, a historic pattern that has been

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Speaker 1: around for a while, and then of course is followed

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Speaker 1: by the New Hampshire primary, and then it's going to

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Speaker 1: be wild and willy for a brief period of time.

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Speaker 1: I thought it'd be fun to share with you some

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Speaker 1: thinking about it. I've been involved in the Iowa caucus

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Speaker 1: a number of times. I ran, of course, to myself

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Speaker 1: for president in Clinton. I spent a lot of time

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Speaker 1: in Iowa. Cliston went to college at Lutheran College in Decorah, Iowa.

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Speaker 1: We have many friends from that state. But in addition,

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Speaker 1: I was campaigning in the late eighties for Jack Kemp

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Speaker 1: in Iowa and have a long relationship with former Speaker

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Speaker 1: of the houseland Upmeyer and many of the Iowa Republicans.

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Speaker 1: So I feel very comfortable sharing with you a little

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Speaker 1: bit about the Iowa caucus. The important thing to remember

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Speaker 1: about a caucus is you have to actually go somewhere

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Speaker 1: and stay. In a primary, you vote and it's over,

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Speaker 1: takes three minutes, five minutes, ten minutes. In a caucus

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Speaker 1: everybody gathers at a living room or a fire department,

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Speaker 1: or a church or a school cafeteria. I think there

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Speaker 1: are about nineteen hundred sites in Iowa Monday night. And

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Speaker 1: if you get together and you actually group up so

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Speaker 1: that there will be a sort of a Haley group,

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Speaker 1: and there will be a Dasadus group and a Ramaswami

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Speaker 1: group and a Trump group, and then each side gets

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Speaker 1: to make a pittch So the campaign's. One of the

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Speaker 1: big challenges we had when we ran in twenty twelve

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Speaker 1: was you have to find a spokesperson in every one

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Speaker 1: of those precincts who will get up and say, I

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Speaker 1: am for my candidate. Here's why I am for my candidate.

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Speaker 1: So that's the beginning of the process. Now Iowa is

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Speaker 1: evolving politically because the world's evolving. In the old days,

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Speaker 1: Iowan's liked presidential candidates to drop by for coffee, and

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Speaker 1: if you went by somebody's place about three times, they'd

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Speaker 1: begin to consider you. That gradually became more and more unwildy.

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Speaker 1: Trump basically campaigns in large sessions. He doesn't campaign the

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Speaker 1: way Iowan's historically used to, but he is so popular

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Speaker 1: and has such huge name id. That doesn't matter much

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Speaker 1: when Obama upset everything by defeating Hillary Clinton. In Iowa,

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Speaker 1: he had a huge number of offices and a very

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Speaker 1: large number of paid staff, because again you have to

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Speaker 1: identify everybody in a precinct, get them to turn out,

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Speaker 1: make sure it's all organized. Trump's probably the best organized

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Speaker 1: for Iowa. I would say that Dessantus is the second

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Speaker 1: best organized, but Dessantus seems to be collapsing. And I

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Speaker 1: would say that Haley is probably the least organized of

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Speaker 1: the top three, but she has momentum psychologically, and Iowa

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Speaker 1: has a tradition of shifting very rapidly. Governor Dean was

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Speaker 1: ahead and all of a sudden, John Kerry borrowed money

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Speaker 1: from his wife, poured it all in, and he surged

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Speaker 1: and he won the primary in two thousand and four

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Speaker 1: in a huge upset. So these things can change almost overnight.

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Speaker 1: In the twenty twelve caucus I was involved in, I

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Speaker 1: was the front runner until about three weeks out. Because

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Speaker 1: Romney figured out I was the front runner, he poured

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Speaker 1: advertising attacking me. But in the process Rick Santorum came

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Speaker 1: along and Santorum actually won by just thirty four votes.

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Speaker 1: But one of the things which changed history, I think

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Speaker 1: was the Iowa state chairman was committed to Romney and

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Speaker 1: reported early that Romney had won, and so coming into

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Speaker 1: New Hampshire it was Romney the victor, Whereas if they

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Speaker 1: had been honest and accurate, he would have reported that

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Speaker 1: Santorum had won and Romney come in second. That might

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Speaker 1: well have changed the entire outcome in New Hampshire. Four

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Speaker 1: years later, Trump was doing pretty well, but Ted Cruz

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Speaker 1: came from behind beat Trump by about three percent. Now,

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Speaker 1: given the way that Cruise campaign, which was very normal

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Speaker 1: for Iowa, hands on, face to face, you go from

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Speaker 1: pizza place to pizza place, you drop by churches, you

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Speaker 1: go to stores, you visit people's homes, Cruz was doing

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Speaker 1: the traditional things, and Cruz had very good micro targeting.

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Speaker 1: For example, they figured out that they were about eight

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Speaker 1: hundred people in Iowa who really wanted Iowa to have

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Speaker 1: a ability to purchase fireworks, and so Cruz literally sent

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Speaker 1: an email to those people the day of the Iowa

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Speaker 1: Caucus committing to help them get the right to by

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Speaker 1: fireworks in Iowa. That little group voted for Cruise. Then

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Speaker 1: Cruiser sort of pieced together just enough to beat Trump

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Speaker 1: by a narrow margin, but of course Trump then went

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Speaker 1: on to become the party's nominie. Anyway, there are people

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Speaker 1: who lost Iowa but went on to win. Ronald Reagan

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Speaker 1: lost in nineteen eighty he'd been told by his campaign

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Speaker 1: manager that he didn't need to go there, that was

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Speaker 1: all locked up. He lost, i came back to win

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Speaker 1: in New Hampshire. George H. W. Bush lost in nineteen

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Speaker 1: eighty eight and came back to win in New Hampshire.

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump, who had lost by a narrow margin, came

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Speaker 1: back to win. So Iowa doesn't automatically define who's going

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Speaker 1: to win. But Iowa does attract attentions the first big test,

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Speaker 1: and it's the first place where people who love politics

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Speaker 1: get to see how people are responding. The Iowa Party

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Speaker 1: actually runs the caucus, So in Iowa, the Republican Party

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Speaker 1: runs the caucus done by ceas good ballot. They're very

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Speaker 1: good at it, they're very efficient. The Democrats have a

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Speaker 1: very different approach. And the Democrats, of course have worked

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Speaker 1: very hard this year with Joe Biden to make sure

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Speaker 1: that nobody's running anywhere. So the Democrats really will not

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Speaker 1: have much of a game but the Republicans are going

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Speaker 1: to have I think even though current projection is it

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Speaker 1: could be as bad as minus twenty five if you

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Speaker 1: count windshill. Midwesterners are used to really cold weather, so

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Speaker 1: what would be stunning to most of the country just

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Speaker 1: becomes a normal problem in midwinter. But I think it

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Speaker 1: will be particularly hard on Haley because she's the least organized,

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Speaker 1: and I think when weather gets bad enough, having somebody

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Speaker 1: who calls you and says, now you are coming to

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Speaker 1: the caucus, aren't you is a big deal. The caucuses

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Speaker 1: are only open on a partisan basis. That is, you

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Speaker 1: can go to the Republican caucus if you are a

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Speaker 1: registered Republican. You can go to the Democratic caucus if

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Speaker 1: you're a registered Democrat, but you can't switch over. Independents

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Speaker 1: can't participate. This is particularly important because Trump, like George W. Bush,

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Speaker 1: is enormously strong among Republicans. Now New Hampshire is very different.

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Speaker 1: The fact is, in New Hampshire people who are not

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Speaker 1: registered by party, and there are more people not registered

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Speaker 1: by party than registered as either Democrat or Republican. Those

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Speaker 1: folks can vote in either primary, so you end up

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Speaker 1: at for example, in the year two thousand, you ended

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Speaker 1: up with John McCain winning in New Hampshire because he

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Speaker 1: carried the independence and the unaffiliated while losing the Republicans.

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Speaker 1: That could happen this year Trump clearly if you look

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Speaker 1: at the polling numbers, Trump is clearly beating Haley among Republicans,

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Speaker 1: but he's also losing to Haley in New Hampshire among

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Speaker 1: independents and among Democrats who re registered as independent for

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Speaker 1: the purpose of voting against Trump. So it would not

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Speaker 1: shock me to see Halley do well. The latest poll

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Speaker 1: in Iowa showed that Haley is now in second place,

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Speaker 1: a distant second place. Trump's at fifty four percent in

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Speaker 1: a field of four candidates, and fifty four percent would

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Speaker 1: be the first time ever that a Republican candidate got

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Speaker 1: a majority in a primary like this. So Trump will

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Speaker 1: almost certainly come out of Iowa as the big winner.

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Speaker 1: My hunch is as of today that DeSantis will probably

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Speaker 1: come in third, which will be a devastating result for him.

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Speaker 1: I think the weather will play some role. I think

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Speaker 1: de Santis probably I'm not saying this with any sense

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Speaker 1: of certainty, but probably has a better turnout mechanism than Haley,

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Speaker 1: and that might help him some, but at least as

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Speaker 1: of the most recent poll, she's now significantly ahead of

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Speaker 1: him to be in second place, but it's a very

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Speaker 1: very distant second place to Donald J. Trump. The key

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Speaker 1: thing to look at in Iowa is does Trump break

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Speaker 1: fifty percent. Trump could win in the forties and the

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Speaker 1: story would be that he didn't do as well as

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Speaker 1: he could have. But if he breaks fifty percent, that

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Speaker 1: is going to be a very significant number and will

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Speaker 1: propel him towards New Hampshire with a strong sense of opportunity.

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Speaker 1: The challenge for Trump is, as I said, in New Hampshire,

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Speaker 1: you have an open primary where independence can vote. And

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Speaker 1: the fact is in every pole I've seen Haley wins independence,

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Speaker 1: Trump wins Republicans, and depending on how many independents vote,

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Speaker 1: she could end up doing well. Plus she has the

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Speaker 1: current governor Sanunu, the former Senator Sanunu, and the former

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Speaker 1: governor Sanunu, the entire family actively working against Trump and

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Speaker 1: for her, and so we'll have to see what effect

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Speaker 1: that'll have in Hampshire. By the way, according to five

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Speaker 1: thirty eight, which is a major election site, as of

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Speaker 1: January tenth, Trump in Iowa is at fifty two point

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Speaker 1: three percent, Haley's at seventeen point one, Desatus is at

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Speaker 1: fifteen point seven, and Ramaswami the six point three. So

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Speaker 1: Trump has consistently been very, very strong. The big deal

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Speaker 1: in Iowa will be the famous Iowa poll done for

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Speaker 1: the Des Moines Register. It is widely regarded as the

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Speaker 1: gold standard, not always totally accurate, but often setting a

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Speaker 1: sense of momentum. It'll come out Saturday night, being the

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Speaker 1: Sunday Morning Des Moin paper. If it shows that Haley

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Speaker 1: has clearly passed a Santus, that will be a very

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Speaker 1: big blow and might well force the Santus out of

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Speaker 1: the race even before he gets to New Hampshire. Suffolk

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Speaker 1: University just did a poll on January eleventh, and they

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Speaker 1: show again that Trump is totally dominant, but it finds

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Speaker 1: that Nikki Haley's begin to open up a clear lead. Suffolk.

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Speaker 1: Trump is at fifty four percent, followed by Haley at

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Speaker 1: twenty percent. Notice that that means she has jumped about

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Speaker 1: three points. But more importantly, DeSantis is at thirteen, which

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Speaker 1: means he's dropped almost three points, and ramaswamis at six. Ramaswami,

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Speaker 1: by the way, takes all of his vote from Trump.

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Speaker 1: If Ramaswami was not in the race, Trump would have

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Speaker 1: six percent more none of his vote go to either

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Speaker 1: Desanis or Haley. In terms of what matters to people

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Speaker 1: in Iowa, among Republicans, eighty one percent say the economy

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Speaker 1: and inflation, eighty percent say immigration and border security, seventy

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Speaker 1: two percent say government spending in deficit, fifty seven percent

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Speaker 1: the Israel Hamas War, fifty percent relation with China, forty

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Speaker 1: one percent abortion restrictions, and thirty three percent the Russia

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Speaker 1: Ukraine War. So it turns out the Republicans now have

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Speaker 1: the largest lead on the economy that they have had

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Speaker 1: since the question started being asked in nineteen ninety one.

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Speaker 1: I think they have a twenty one point lead now

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Speaker 1: when asked about which party does a better job with

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Speaker 1: the economy. Now, when you come out of Iowa, you

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Speaker 1: then go straight to New Hampshire, which on Tuesday, January

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Speaker 1: twenty third will hold its primary. New Hampshire is one

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Speaker 1: of the earliest primary states for president. They began local

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Speaker 1: and state elections primaries in nineteen ten and put in

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Speaker 1: a presidential primary in nineteen sixteen. Primaries were considered a

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Speaker 1: great progressive reform when they first came along, because they

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Speaker 1: took power away from the machine and gave it back

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Speaker 1: to the people. For a long time, New Hampshire was

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Speaker 1: not the first primary, but in nineteen twenty, following a

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Speaker 1: huge snowstorm, it became the first in the country, and

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Speaker 1: it has been the first in the country ever since

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Speaker 1: nineteen twenty. Normally, they only had ballots for delegates to

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Speaker 1: the party. Conventional they didn't have the name on you

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Speaker 1: named your delegates. People knew the delegate was for you,

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Speaker 1: but they were voting for the delegate. In nineteen fifty two,

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Speaker 1: they added that the delegate would actually have a ballot

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Speaker 1: for the presidential candidate, with their names listed separately. And

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Speaker 1: starting in nineteen fifty two, when Eisenhower had a tremendous run,

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Speaker 1: the New Hampshire primary began to really have an impact.

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Speaker 1: It really became a popular place to look at. The

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Speaker 1: news media could get there from New York and it's

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Speaker 1: a real primary. That is, people can go and vote.

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Speaker 1: They have a much bigger turnout percentage wise than you

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Speaker 1: do in a caucus. And there was a sense that

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Speaker 1: New Hampshire was the beginning that sort of if Iowa

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Speaker 1: was the appetizer. New Hampshire was the first course in

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Speaker 1: dealing with presidential campaigns, and in New Hampshire there are

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Speaker 1: two party's ballots, one for the Democrats, one for the Republicans.

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Speaker 1: But again as part of the Bidens strategy, he is

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Speaker 1: not on the ballot, and they've really worked hard to

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Speaker 1: not have anybody pay attention to the Democratic primary. By example,

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Speaker 1: I think they probably Biden was vividly aware of this.

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Speaker 1: In nineteen sixty eight, Senator Jean McCarthy, who is a

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Speaker 1: liberal Democrat, ran against Lyndon Johnson, the President, basically on

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Speaker 1: the Vietnam War issue, got a surprisingly high percent of

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Speaker 1: the vote, didn't win, but had a very high percent,

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Speaker 1: and shortly thereafter Johnson withdrew from the presidential campaign. There

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Speaker 1: is a certain danger. Pat Buchanan did very well in

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Speaker 1: New Hampshire taking on President George H. W. Bush in

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Speaker 1: nineteen ninety two, so New Hampshire has had a role.

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Speaker 1: Incumbent presidents have to recognize it. If people are unhappy,

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Speaker 1: New Hampshire is one of the first places where they

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Speaker 1: get to show up and indicate how unhappy they are.

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Speaker 1: The Democrats are working very hard to minimize anybody running

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Speaker 1: against Biden, and initially Biden did not file. He's not

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Speaker 1: on the ballot, But because there are people on the ballot,

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Speaker 1: the Biden team now is organizing a write in campaign.

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Speaker 1: It'll be interesting to see how well they do at

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Speaker 1: getting people to write in Joe Biden's name. There will

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Speaker 1: be debates, and I participate in a number of these.

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Speaker 1: I ran in twenty twelve, and they'll have a debate

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Speaker 1: at send Ansom College on January eighteenth and at New

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Speaker 1: England College on January twenty first, this on the Republican side,

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Speaker 1: and maybe down to you know, with Chris Christie having

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Speaker 1: now dropped out, you don't quite know what Ramaswami's going

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Speaker 1: to do if he comes in at six percent in Iowa.

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Speaker 1: You don't quite know what Dusantus will do if he

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Speaker 1: comes in third in Iowa. You could get it could

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Speaker 1: be only two people available, Trump and Nicky Haley. And

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Speaker 1: I'll be curious to see whether not Trump would even

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Speaker 1: show up. So far, he has very successfully avoided the

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Speaker 1: debates and it has not hurt him at all. Now

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Speaker 1: we do have polling data from New Hampshire. Emerson College

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Speaker 1: did a poll on January eleventh, they show Trump leading

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Speaker 1: with forty four percent, followed by Nicki Haley at twenty eight.

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Speaker 1: She'd gained ten points since November. Well, Trump had lost five,

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Speaker 1: So it went from forty nine to eighteen to forty

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Speaker 1: five to twenty eight. And if I were Trump, that

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Speaker 1: would make me a little shaky. Christie had twelve percent

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Speaker 1: of the vote, and that I was told this morning

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Speaker 1: that with Christie dropping out of the race, about two

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Speaker 1: out of every three Christie voters will go to Nikki.

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Speaker 1: If that's true, then she would pick up eight points

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Speaker 1: out of Christie dropping out. Nasantas was already at seven

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Speaker 1: so in the poll done on January eleventh, the Santus

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Speaker 1: is already running fourth and Ramaswami was at four percent.

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Speaker 1: And it's kind of hard to understand what Ramaswami thinks

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Speaker 1: he's doing at this stage, but I think, you know,

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Speaker 1: he's getting a name idea, and he's getting his ideas out,

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Speaker 1: and he's a billionaire, so he didn't care. It doesn't

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Speaker 1: caust him any any great pressure to stay in. Haley

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Speaker 1: has jumped from four percent in August to twenty eight percent,

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Speaker 1: and I would say that she has a real opportunity

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Speaker 1: to overtake Trump. Ironically, she leads Trump thirty eight to

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Speaker 1: thirty five among people over seventy, leads among voters with

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Speaker 1: postgraduate degrees, which should not be a surprise. Trump's weakest

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Speaker 1: area is people who have lots of college degrees, and

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Speaker 1: she leads among independent voters. On the other hand, among

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Speaker 1: young Republicans, fifty four percent of the voters under thirty

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Speaker 1: support Trump. Among male Republican primary voters, he leads her

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Speaker 1: forty two thirty one. He actually leads her by twenty

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Speaker 1: points forty six to twenty six among women Republican primary voters.

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Speaker 1: She doesn't necessarily penetrate as much as you would think

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Speaker 1: she would with Republican women. In this particular survey of

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Speaker 1: the people who are for Chris Christie, over half named

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Speaker 1: sniky halis her second choice. Only two percent named Trump.

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Speaker 1: That's really pretty remarkable indication of how strongly anti Trump

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Speaker 1: the Chris Christie vote was and the Democratic primary, forty

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Speaker 1: nine percent of the voters planned to write in President Biden.

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Speaker 1: He should be okay, the Democratic congressman from Minnesota, Dean Phillips,

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Speaker 1: who's willing agains him is that sixteen percent, So Biden

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Speaker 1: should come out of this pretty well. The key issues

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Speaker 1: in New Hampshire are the economy, first, housing affordability, second,

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Speaker 1: threats to democracy third, which means that the Biden message

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Speaker 1: is penetrating to some extent. Then immigration is fourth, and

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Speaker 1: then health care and education, and finally abortion access so

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Speaker 1: not clearly as defined by abortion as a lot of

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Speaker 1: people in the media will tell you. I think that

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Speaker 1: it's pretty clear that you have a situation where for

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Speaker 1: the next few weeks, just to share numbers game is

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Speaker 1: going to matter. You end up first paying attention to

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Speaker 1: the numbers in Iowa. My hunches that'll be Trump and

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Speaker 1: probably Hailey getting a boost because the elite media and

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Speaker 1: the anti Trump money people are desperate to find some

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Speaker 1: way to try to stop Trump, and I think as

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Speaker 1: a result, you are very likely to see Hailey at

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Speaker 1: say twenty two percent, may be carried more as a

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Speaker 1: winner than Trump at fifty four percent, because the media

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Speaker 1: is so desperate to have an alternative to Trump. If

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Speaker 1: she then goes on to win New Hampshire, then her

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Speaker 1: media coverage will be amazing, and then it will be

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Speaker 1: a really interesting test. Because the third big test is

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Speaker 1: South Carolina. It is far enough away that you could

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Speaker 1: have a real campaign in South Carolina. All the evidence

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Speaker 1: right now is that Trump beats her badly and that

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Speaker 1: it's a Republican only primary, so she doesn't get the

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Speaker 1: advantage of having independence come and vote. This is, by

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Speaker 1: the way, exactly what happened in the year two thousand

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Speaker 1: and two thousand. John McCain, who was very attractive to

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Speaker 1: independent voters, ended up with a majority in New Hampshire,

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Speaker 1: and so he had real momentum coming out of New Hampshire.

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Speaker 1: The Bush people understood that when they got to South

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Speaker 1: Carolina that McCain, both by style and by being a

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Speaker 1: much more moderate Republican, would be much weaker than Bush.

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Speaker 1: In the Bush campaign plan, South Carolina was always the

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Speaker 1: firewall that would stop McCain, and South Carolina only allows

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Speaker 1: Republicans to vote, whereas New Hampshire allows Republicans and independents

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Speaker 1: to vote. McCain also carried Michigan, where independence could vote,

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Speaker 1: but anywhere that there was a closed primary of Republicans only,

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Speaker 1: George W. Bush was going to win by a big margin,

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Speaker 1: and that is precisely what happened. So the McCain campaign

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Speaker 1: had a brief moment of glory looked like it had

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Speaker 1: real momentum and then just got ground up by the

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Speaker 1: Bush team and in particular ended up losing South Carolina.

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Speaker 1: If you remember back in twenty sixteen, South Carolina was

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Speaker 1: an enormously important state for Trump. It's really the state

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Speaker 1: where he broke loose and where things began to happen

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Speaker 1: in a very, very big way. And I think that

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Speaker 1: the core of his strength in South Carolina is very

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Speaker 1: deep and very real. I would be very surprised to

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Speaker 1: see lose South Carolina under virtually any circumstance. Once you

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Speaker 1: get beyond South Carolina, there are a couple of possibilities here.

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Speaker 1: Trump wins Iowa, loses New Hampshire, ultimately wins in South Carolina.

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Speaker 1: That's one round. Trump wins New Hampshire, wins Iowa, and

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Speaker 1: barely wins New Hampshire, but does win it. If that happens,

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Speaker 1: he becomes at that point the nominee. If he wins

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Speaker 1: both Iowa and New Hampshire, it's over. On the other hand,

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Speaker 1: it could take an extra month if he loses New

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Speaker 1: Hampshire and has to go on to win in Nevada

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Speaker 1: and in South Carolina, and then on Super Tuesday, one

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Speaker 1: of the challenges that Haley has and the challenge that

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Speaker 1: Dessanta said, although he had a longer time period, he

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Speaker 1: had more money putting together a nationwide campaign. Something close

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Speaker 1: that I learned in twenty twelve that this is a

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Speaker 1: huge country and the one person who has been consistently

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Speaker 1: now since twenty fifteen, reaching across the country to Idaho

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Speaker 1: to Arizona, to Colorado, North Dakota. You name it is

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump. If you were just to measure the scale

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Speaker 1: of the political machine, it's astonishing. I was really reminded

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Speaker 1: of this twice once. It's not I'm invited to speak

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Speaker 1: to Club forty five, which is a group of pro

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Speaker 1: Trump activists in Palm Beach. They meet once a month.

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Speaker 1: They have forty five hundred members and they've been meeting

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Speaker 1: ever since twenty twenty. So you have this group of people,

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Speaker 1: this core group that's enormous. They get together just because

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Speaker 1: they're for Trump. They're not organized by anybody, that doesn't

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Speaker 1: cost any money. They have one meeting, they all get

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Speaker 1: to go together. They have a speaker. In that particular occasion,

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Speaker 1: it was me, and it's remarkable. Well, recently Clista and

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Speaker 1: I were at Luther College in Decorah, Iowa, a small

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Speaker 1: town up in the corner between Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa,

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Speaker 1: right on the edge of Iowa and Decora is a

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Speaker 1: town of about seven thousand. And we're walking down main

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Speaker 1: Street and there's a store that's Club forty five and

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Speaker 1: it had been organized locally, no campaign money, no organizational structure,

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Speaker 1: no directions from Mary Largo, just local pro Trump people.

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Speaker 1: As Vin Weber has said recently, because he has a

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Speaker 1: lake house up in northern Minnesota, every time he goes

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Speaker 1: back home, he sees Trump signs everywhere in rural Minnesota.

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Speaker 1: When he comes to Washington, he gets told by all

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Speaker 1: the people who disliked Trump that they're sure Trump's not

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Speaker 1: going to be the nominee. And he kind of wonders,

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Speaker 1: do they ever drive outside the Beltway? Do they have

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Speaker 1: any idea what it's like. And so I look at

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Speaker 1: all of that background, and here I have to give

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Speaker 1: credit to Mark Alpern, who I really enjoy and I

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Speaker 1: think that his Worldwide News is a remarkable daily newsletter

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Speaker 1: which I look forward to every single day. And I

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Speaker 1: would just say that Alprin has the insight of practical

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Speaker 1: politics that when you have this kind of organization, this

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Speaker 1: kind of volunteerism, this kind of energy all across the country.

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Speaker 1: It is really hard to figure out how you're going

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Speaker 1: to beat that person. Now, that means that we are

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Speaker 1: almost certainly faced with Trump versus Biden in the general election.

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Speaker 1: I hear people, particularly Democrats, wish that somehow Biden wouldn't

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Speaker 1: run again. But I ask you, if you have the

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Speaker 1: White House, Air Force, one marine, one Camp David, and

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Speaker 1: the alternative is to retire and bicycle in Delaware, do

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Speaker 1: you really think Joe Biden is going to go home

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Speaker 1: without at least trying to get reelected. I don't so.

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Speaker 1: I think the odds are very high that the election

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Speaker 1: will be clear, certainly no later than mid to late March,

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Speaker 1: and that the two nominees will be Donald J. Trump

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Speaker 1: and Joe Biden. Which is kind of ironic because in

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Speaker 1: a theoretical world, probably seventy percent of the country would

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Speaker 1: like to have somebody else. But the fact is, the

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Speaker 1: way the business works, person who's on top of the

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Speaker 1: hill is very hard to knock off the hill. And

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Speaker 1: what you have is the top of the Republican hill

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Speaker 1: is occupied by Donald Trump. The top of the Democratic

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Speaker 1: hill is occupied by Joe Biden, and I don't see

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Speaker 1: anybody in either party capable of knocking off the person

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Speaker 1: who currently leads their party. So I think you will

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Speaker 1: see a general election, and you can already tell with

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Speaker 1: Trump that he is already moving towards talking about general

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Speaker 1: election issues. He's already talking about what he would do

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Speaker 1: to make America great again. He's already talking about big ideas.

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Speaker 1: I think they've now produced something like sixty or seventy

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Speaker 1: videos on specific issues of what Trump would like to

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Speaker 1: do moving forward. And it's very formidable to watch somebody

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Speaker 1: who started running in twenty fifteen, spent four years as

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Speaker 1: the incumbent president and has now spent over three years

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Speaker 1: thinking about lessons he learned and what he would do

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Speaker 1: differently and how he would lead the country. So I

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Speaker 1: think it's going to be an absolutely fascinating year. And

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Speaker 1: my hope is as things happen during the year, starting

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Speaker 1: with Iowa, where I'll do another podcast to report on

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Speaker 1: what's happened and what it means, and then again after

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Speaker 1: New Hampshire. But I hope to be able during the

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Speaker 1: course of the year to have a series of campaign

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Speaker 1: reports that sort of bring into context exactly what's happening

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Speaker 1: and what it means, not just for the presidency, but

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Speaker 1: you have huge opportunities in the House, huge opportunities in

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Speaker 1: the Senate. It's going to be as it always is, fascinating.

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Speaker 1: Tell people if you want to avoid boredom, then government

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Speaker 1: and politics is something you should do. It's always changing,

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Speaker 1: it's always different, it's always complicated. There are no real

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Speaker 1: experts except the American people, and anybody who tells you

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Speaker 1: that the polls are right doesn't understand. Until the people vote,

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Speaker 1: you don't really know, and the people can make up

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Speaker 1: their mind up to the last minute. So I'm always

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Speaker 1: very cautious about knowing the outcome until there is an outcome.

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Speaker 1: And I hope this is helpful and I look forward

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Speaker 1: to reporting to you more as we go forward. Thank

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Speaker 1: you for listening. Newts World is produced by Ginglish three

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Speaker 1: sixty and iHeartMedia. Our executive producer is Carnesie Sloan. Our

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00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:49,080
Speaker 1: researcher is Rachel Peterson. The artwork for the show was

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00:27:49,119 --> 00:27:52,080
Speaker 1: created by Steve Penley. Special thanks to the team at

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Speaker 1: Ginglish three sixty. If you've been enjoying Newtsworld, I hope

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00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:57,960
Speaker 1: you'll go to Apple podcasts and both rate us with

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Speaker 1: five stars and give us a review so others can

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Speaker 1: learn what it's all about. Right now, listeners of Newtsworm

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00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:08,960
Speaker 1: can sign up for a three freeweekly columns at ginglishfree

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Speaker 1: sixty dot com slash newsletter. I'm Newt Gingrich. This is

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Speaker 1: neutworl