1 00:00:01,480 --> 00:00:04,760 Speaker 1: We've heard for years now how the aging population is 2 00:00:04,880 --> 00:00:09,560 Speaker 1: increasingly straining public programs for seniors like social Security and 3 00:00:09,720 --> 00:00:13,440 Speaker 1: medicare here in the US. Around the world, political fights 4 00:00:13,440 --> 00:00:17,040 Speaker 1: and protests have broken out in response to this urgent question, 5 00:00:17,440 --> 00:00:20,120 Speaker 1: how do you pay to care for so many retired people? 6 00:00:20,239 --> 00:00:23,520 Speaker 1: At the same time, the US Census Bureau tells us 7 00:00:23,520 --> 00:00:27,120 Speaker 1: that just seven years from now, people over sixty five 8 00:00:27,200 --> 00:00:31,120 Speaker 1: will outnumber those under eighteen. It's even got a name 9 00:00:31,160 --> 00:00:34,040 Speaker 1: in the public policy world. They call it the twenty 10 00:00:34,159 --> 00:00:38,040 Speaker 1: thirty problem. And while Washington drags its feed over what 11 00:00:38,200 --> 00:00:43,360 Speaker 1: to do, some companies are seeing opportunity. Bloomberg reporter Priya 12 00:00:43,479 --> 00:00:47,280 Speaker 1: onon rights in BusinessWeek about a tech startup called Papa 13 00:00:47,400 --> 00:00:50,519 Speaker 1: that's looking to fill some of the void. It provides 14 00:00:50,560 --> 00:00:54,040 Speaker 1: household services to seniors so they can stay independent. 15 00:00:54,560 --> 00:00:57,600 Speaker 2: Loneliness is a huge issue in this country, especially among 16 00:00:57,680 --> 00:01:00,960 Speaker 2: the elderly, and the company he has said that this 17 00:01:01,080 --> 00:01:03,360 Speaker 2: is also a companionship option. 18 00:01:03,680 --> 00:01:04,920 Speaker 3: Someone can request to. 19 00:01:04,880 --> 00:01:07,280 Speaker 2: Have a pal come to their house just to chat 20 00:01:07,400 --> 00:01:08,440 Speaker 2: even but. 21 00:01:08,480 --> 00:01:11,880 Speaker 1: The company is learning just how difficult that can be, 22 00:01:12,840 --> 00:01:16,760 Speaker 1: and later in the show, health economist Jonathan Skinner he'll 23 00:01:16,760 --> 00:01:18,880 Speaker 1: tell us what it will take to meet the needs 24 00:01:18,920 --> 00:01:21,320 Speaker 1: of all those retiring baby boomers. 25 00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:25,319 Speaker 4: A society can only hope to have this many people 26 00:01:25,640 --> 00:01:28,640 Speaker 4: surviving to be eighty five or ninety and ninety five 27 00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:35,320 Speaker 4: and living rewarding lives as retirees. The problem comes when 28 00:01:35,760 --> 00:01:41,600 Speaker 4: they require assistance, and for many people who are older, 29 00:01:42,040 --> 00:01:48,560 Speaker 4: their needs aren't being met by the current insurance programs. 30 00:01:53,120 --> 00:01:56,960 Speaker 1: I'm Wescasova today on the Big Take the hard realities 31 00:01:57,040 --> 00:02:09,480 Speaker 1: of the aging economy. You've written a story about this 32 00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:13,280 Speaker 1: company called Papa Ink, which you describe as a family 33 00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:17,320 Speaker 1: on demand task rabbit for seniors. Can you tell us 34 00:02:17,360 --> 00:02:19,240 Speaker 1: more about this company what they do. 35 00:02:19,880 --> 00:02:22,920 Speaker 2: Papa is a startup that is essentially a gig economy 36 00:02:23,000 --> 00:02:26,960 Speaker 2: version of home assistance. They sometimes describe themselves as family 37 00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:31,320 Speaker 2: on demand, so customers, seniors or family members of them 38 00:02:31,639 --> 00:02:34,440 Speaker 2: can hire contractors from Papa's network to come to their home, 39 00:02:34,560 --> 00:02:37,840 Speaker 2: hang out and chat, do household chores, take them to 40 00:02:38,040 --> 00:02:42,280 Speaker 2: doctor's appointments, essentially anything that doesn't involve some of the 41 00:02:42,320 --> 00:02:46,000 Speaker 2: more traditional and intimate work done by nurses, such as 42 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:49,480 Speaker 2: bathing people helping them use the bathroom, and they call 43 00:02:49,520 --> 00:02:52,480 Speaker 2: the customers in this case Papa's and the contractors are 44 00:02:52,480 --> 00:02:55,000 Speaker 2: called pals, hence the name the company PAPA. 45 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:58,400 Speaker 1: Part of the idea here is to enable older people 46 00:02:58,480 --> 00:03:02,160 Speaker 1: to stay more independents stay in their homes for longer, since, 47 00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:05,840 Speaker 1: as we know, eldercare in America is a pretty complicated thing. 48 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:09,519 Speaker 2: That's right, and loneliness is a huge issue in this country, 49 00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:12,680 Speaker 2: especially among the elderly. The Surgeon General has talked about 50 00:03:12,720 --> 00:03:16,480 Speaker 2: this before, and the company has said that this is 51 00:03:16,560 --> 00:03:20,800 Speaker 2: also a companionship option. Someone can request to have a 52 00:03:20,840 --> 00:03:23,959 Speaker 2: pal come to their house just to chat. Even Andrew Parker, 53 00:03:24,040 --> 00:03:27,000 Speaker 2: the CEO of PAPA, who declined to sit for an 54 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:29,400 Speaker 2: interview for our story, often says that he started the 55 00:03:29,440 --> 00:03:32,000 Speaker 2: company after hiring a college student to help entertain his 56 00:03:32,000 --> 00:03:34,560 Speaker 2: grandfather and that it was an AHA kind of moment 57 00:03:34,639 --> 00:03:35,680 Speaker 2: for him. 58 00:03:36,280 --> 00:03:38,520 Speaker 1: And so how is this paid for? 59 00:03:39,080 --> 00:03:42,600 Speaker 2: PAPA contracts with Medicare Advantage and Medicaid health plans as 60 00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:45,280 Speaker 2: well as a number of large employer based health plans. 61 00:03:45,760 --> 00:03:48,680 Speaker 2: The papas who actually using the surface often don't have 62 00:03:48,720 --> 00:03:50,520 Speaker 2: to pay anything and they can use it for a 63 00:03:50,560 --> 00:03:53,560 Speaker 2: certain number of hours per year through their health insurance plan. 64 00:03:53,840 --> 00:03:55,640 Speaker 2: So the business model is a little bit different from 65 00:03:55,720 --> 00:03:57,800 Speaker 2: Uber and lyft in that case where you're not necessarily 66 00:03:57,840 --> 00:04:01,640 Speaker 2: as a user paying per ride per food delivery, you 67 00:04:01,720 --> 00:04:04,000 Speaker 2: instead have a certain number of hours per year through 68 00:04:04,000 --> 00:04:05,160 Speaker 2: your health insurance plan. 69 00:04:06,160 --> 00:04:07,800 Speaker 1: And how does PAPA make money. 70 00:04:08,200 --> 00:04:11,200 Speaker 2: Papa makes money by contracting with these health insurance plans, 71 00:04:11,680 --> 00:04:15,400 Speaker 2: some of which receive government subsidy because they're Medicare advantage 72 00:04:15,440 --> 00:04:15,920 Speaker 2: in Medicaid. 73 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:19,800 Speaker 1: So you mentioned at the beginning that this is a startup, 74 00:04:19,920 --> 00:04:24,640 Speaker 1: and they have gotten some pretty big investment in the company. 75 00:04:25,200 --> 00:04:25,640 Speaker 3: That's right. 76 00:04:25,720 --> 00:04:29,719 Speaker 2: Papa has raised hundreds of millions from large investors, including 77 00:04:29,760 --> 00:04:33,719 Speaker 2: soft Bank and Tiger Global, Alexis o'hannian, who is the 78 00:04:33,720 --> 00:04:36,159 Speaker 2: co founder of Reddit but better known as the husband 79 00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:39,080 Speaker 2: of Serena Williams. And the company was last valued by 80 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:42,160 Speaker 2: investors at one point four billion in twenty and twenty one. 81 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:44,799 Speaker 2: During the pandemic, when I think a lot of people 82 00:04:44,839 --> 00:04:48,080 Speaker 2: in this country, the idea of helping people be less 83 00:04:48,120 --> 00:04:50,520 Speaker 2: lonely became prominent in everyone's mind. 84 00:04:51,160 --> 00:04:53,960 Speaker 1: Who are the people who are providing the service, the 85 00:04:53,960 --> 00:04:56,880 Speaker 1: ones that they call the pals who go to older 86 00:04:56,920 --> 00:04:58,800 Speaker 1: people's homes and help them out. 87 00:04:59,279 --> 00:05:00,760 Speaker 3: They're independent contractors. 88 00:05:00,839 --> 00:05:04,279 Speaker 2: And Papa actually has a couple of bullet points on 89 00:05:04,320 --> 00:05:07,839 Speaker 2: their website that they list for who is eligible to 90 00:05:08,040 --> 00:05:10,640 Speaker 2: sign up to become a PAL if you're twenty one 91 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:14,360 Speaker 2: or older, have US work authorization, can communicate in English, 92 00:05:14,440 --> 00:05:17,159 Speaker 2: and can pass a background check. But it's gigwork, so 93 00:05:17,240 --> 00:05:20,799 Speaker 2: the training is not very extensive, though the company says 94 00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:24,800 Speaker 2: it does offer an array of optional training options that 95 00:05:24,920 --> 00:05:27,800 Speaker 2: it sends to pals over email and other methods, and 96 00:05:27,880 --> 00:05:30,200 Speaker 2: makes available in the app if someone wishes to go 97 00:05:30,320 --> 00:05:33,080 Speaker 2: through and learn more about how to be a better 98 00:05:33,560 --> 00:05:36,320 Speaker 2: pal to the person they're visiting at home. 99 00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:39,880 Speaker 1: So there's no special training required to become a PAL. 100 00:05:40,440 --> 00:05:43,560 Speaker 1: It's sort of like being an instantcart delivery person in 101 00:05:43,600 --> 00:05:45,600 Speaker 1: the sense that almost anyone can sign up. 102 00:05:46,080 --> 00:05:49,840 Speaker 2: Federal requirements stipulate that if you're a Medicare eligible home 103 00:05:49,880 --> 00:05:52,600 Speaker 2: health aid, you need to complete at least seventy five 104 00:05:52,640 --> 00:05:56,560 Speaker 2: hours of classroom supervision and practical training. But popas service 105 00:05:56,640 --> 00:05:59,800 Speaker 2: is stripped down. It doesn't offer the clinical elements of homecare, 106 00:06:00,040 --> 00:06:02,279 Speaker 2: so it's not subject to that seventy five hour rule. 107 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:05,919 Speaker 2: It's required training for pals is a short video that 108 00:06:05,960 --> 00:06:09,440 Speaker 2: stresses the importance of avoiding physical contact with clients. The 109 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:12,360 Speaker 2: company told us that they've added more voluntary training over 110 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:15,560 Speaker 2: the past year, and that they send pals emails containing 111 00:06:15,760 --> 00:06:19,039 Speaker 2: an average of six links with additional optional training content, 112 00:06:19,320 --> 00:06:21,719 Speaker 2: along with a quarterly newsletter that includes a link to 113 00:06:21,720 --> 00:06:23,080 Speaker 2: safety related materials. 114 00:06:23,279 --> 00:06:25,240 Speaker 3: These are supplementary and. 115 00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:28,240 Speaker 1: So beyond that, is there any sort of vetting process 116 00:06:28,240 --> 00:06:30,680 Speaker 1: of people who sign up to go to people's homes. 117 00:06:31,120 --> 00:06:33,960 Speaker 2: The company says it performs background checks and that it 118 00:06:34,040 --> 00:06:38,200 Speaker 2: also requires pals to acknowledge patient privacy rules, But they 119 00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:40,680 Speaker 2: also say that the average person does not require training 120 00:06:40,720 --> 00:06:43,279 Speaker 2: to support their grandparents, parents, or elderly neighbors. 121 00:06:44,279 --> 00:06:46,720 Speaker 1: How's it working out? You talked to quite a few 122 00:06:46,760 --> 00:06:49,360 Speaker 1: people who use the service. What do they say about it? 123 00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:53,400 Speaker 2: America has a huge shortage of healthcare workers and caregivers, 124 00:06:53,440 --> 00:06:57,240 Speaker 2: so for many people, Papa is a lifesaver. Manuela Lopez 125 00:06:57,400 --> 00:07:00,000 Speaker 2: is a seventy two year old retiree in Grand Rapids, Michigan, 126 00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:03,159 Speaker 2: who I spoke with, and she also called Papa a 127 00:07:03,200 --> 00:07:06,960 Speaker 2: life saver. She's a diabetic and amputee and she uses 128 00:07:07,000 --> 00:07:10,400 Speaker 2: PAPA for help getting to the supermarket and to doctor's appointments. 129 00:07:10,840 --> 00:07:12,760 Speaker 2: And she said she can't just walk out the door 130 00:07:12,800 --> 00:07:15,800 Speaker 2: by herself, and papa's service has been a game changer, 131 00:07:16,320 --> 00:07:18,640 Speaker 2: and so for many people looking for help. You know, 132 00:07:18,680 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 2: they might need some help around the house, they might 133 00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:22,560 Speaker 2: need support to be able to get to the doctor, 134 00:07:22,560 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 2: but they don't necessarily need help going to the bathroom 135 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:29,120 Speaker 2: or taking a shower. PAPA is there to support this 136 00:07:29,280 --> 00:07:33,040 Speaker 2: huge shortage of healthcare workers and caregivers in America. 137 00:07:33,120 --> 00:07:35,320 Speaker 3: I spoke with a number of folks who. 138 00:07:35,200 --> 00:07:38,080 Speaker 2: Said that PAPA was a solution they relied upon for 139 00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:41,240 Speaker 2: their family members when they didn't know where else to 140 00:07:41,280 --> 00:07:44,080 Speaker 2: go for support and being a caregiver, you know, if 141 00:07:44,160 --> 00:07:48,680 Speaker 2: you're supporting a parent yourself, having another caregiver available is 142 00:07:49,000 --> 00:07:50,760 Speaker 2: tremendously helpful to many people. 143 00:07:51,320 --> 00:07:55,040 Speaker 1: And yet Pria you also found that the company is 144 00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:59,600 Speaker 1: facing some pretty big challenges in matching up people with 145 00:07:59,680 --> 00:08:00,480 Speaker 1: the customers. 146 00:08:01,160 --> 00:08:01,720 Speaker 3: That's right. 147 00:08:01,920 --> 00:08:05,320 Speaker 2: We reviewed more than one thousand confidential complaints logged by 148 00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:08,520 Speaker 2: PAPA over the last four years and found dozens of 149 00:08:08,520 --> 00:08:11,760 Speaker 2: allegations of sexual harassment and assault, as well as an 150 00:08:11,920 --> 00:08:16,200 Speaker 2: allegation of unlawful imprisonment. These were complaints filed by both 151 00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:19,120 Speaker 2: the company's workers and members with the company. 152 00:08:19,520 --> 00:08:19,720 Speaker 5: Now. 153 00:08:19,760 --> 00:08:23,240 Speaker 2: The company says that less than one percent of its 154 00:08:23,280 --> 00:08:26,600 Speaker 2: complaints are safety related, and they also added that they, 155 00:08:27,080 --> 00:08:29,440 Speaker 2: and I'm going to quote directly, we know any failure 156 00:08:29,480 --> 00:08:32,360 Speaker 2: in protecting the safety of our members and pals is unacceptable. 157 00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:34,800 Speaker 2: And they said that whenever you're connecting people, there's a 158 00:08:34,880 --> 00:08:37,280 Speaker 2: chance something can go wrong, and they're committed to doing 159 00:08:37,320 --> 00:08:40,280 Speaker 2: everything they can to try to ensure that never happens again. 160 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:43,439 Speaker 1: And peer, what are some examples of some of the 161 00:08:43,440 --> 00:08:49,000 Speaker 1: things that both the customers and the service providers encounter. 162 00:08:49,679 --> 00:08:52,719 Speaker 2: Pals of filed complaints alleging that clients have tried to 163 00:08:52,800 --> 00:08:56,160 Speaker 2: kiss or fondle them, or that their residences were covered 164 00:08:56,160 --> 00:08:59,480 Speaker 2: in feces or infested with cockroaches, are in one case, 165 00:08:59,520 --> 00:09:03,520 Speaker 2: home to an alligator. Other times it's the pals who 166 00:09:03,600 --> 00:09:08,400 Speaker 2: have been accused of stealing or harassing their clients or 167 00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:11,360 Speaker 2: getting naked in their home. The more than thousand complaints 168 00:09:11,440 --> 00:09:13,800 Speaker 2: we reviewed were from records that we obtained, but there's 169 00:09:13,840 --> 00:09:18,080 Speaker 2: also a court case going on In Minnesota. Middle aged 170 00:09:18,120 --> 00:09:20,360 Speaker 2: man was sent to a seventy year old woman's house 171 00:09:20,440 --> 00:09:24,400 Speaker 2: earlier this year. He arrived the woman gets around using 172 00:09:24,440 --> 00:09:27,280 Speaker 2: a walker or power chair. He helped her get to 173 00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:29,600 Speaker 2: a couple of stores, and then when they returned to 174 00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:34,720 Speaker 2: her home, he allegedly raped her and there's a criminal 175 00:09:34,800 --> 00:09:38,480 Speaker 2: complaint against him. PAPA is featured throughout the criminal complaint, 176 00:09:38,920 --> 00:09:41,599 Speaker 2: though it's not named in the case as a defendant. 177 00:09:41,880 --> 00:09:45,160 Speaker 2: The company said in a statement that it's CEO, Andrew Parker, 178 00:09:45,320 --> 00:09:47,880 Speaker 2: has had several conversations with a member and offered her 179 00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:50,440 Speaker 2: all the help and support they can, and that the 180 00:09:50,480 --> 00:09:53,080 Speaker 2: CEO and the woman who is a victim in this 181 00:09:53,120 --> 00:09:56,600 Speaker 2: case have become, they said, quite important in each other's lives. 182 00:09:57,160 --> 00:09:59,960 Speaker 2: Papa also said it removed the contractor from its platform 183 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:02,320 Speaker 2: and that's conducting an internal review of its trust and 184 00:10:02,360 --> 00:10:06,680 Speaker 2: safety practices after this devastating incident, and it also said 185 00:10:06,679 --> 00:10:09,520 Speaker 2: that it has added a two person manual review of 186 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:12,839 Speaker 2: his background check data to its screening process because its 187 00:10:12,880 --> 00:10:16,240 Speaker 2: system did not flag a prior conviction that this man 188 00:10:16,400 --> 00:10:20,400 Speaker 2: had for domestic assault before being sent to this woman's home. 189 00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:24,760 Speaker 1: And the person accused in the case, Martin Jermaine Blue Senior, 190 00:10:25,080 --> 00:10:28,320 Speaker 1: has said the encounter was consensual and denied the state's 191 00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:32,719 Speaker 1: charges of criminal sexual conduct, kidnapping, and assault with a 192 00:10:32,800 --> 00:10:36,120 Speaker 1: dangerous weapon. He's being held on a two hundred thousand 193 00:10:36,120 --> 00:10:39,920 Speaker 1: dollars bound pending trial. A lawyer for Blue didn't respond 194 00:10:39,960 --> 00:10:43,000 Speaker 1: to requests for comment for The BusinessWeek's story. 195 00:10:45,440 --> 00:10:45,680 Speaker 5: Prea. 196 00:10:45,800 --> 00:10:51,119 Speaker 1: Since PAPA is covered by insurance companies and covered by Medicare, 197 00:10:51,960 --> 00:10:55,880 Speaker 1: what do they have to say about the things you're reporting? 198 00:10:56,800 --> 00:11:00,600 Speaker 2: The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services said the agency 199 00:11:00,679 --> 00:11:05,120 Speaker 2: has been reviewing complaints and grievances that allegedly involve Papa's service, 200 00:11:05,559 --> 00:11:08,600 Speaker 2: and they said that most complaints revolve around customer service, 201 00:11:08,640 --> 00:11:12,320 Speaker 2: but they're also aware of the allegations we described in 202 00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:15,360 Speaker 2: our story and serious concerns, and that they continue to 203 00:11:15,440 --> 00:11:18,920 Speaker 2: monitor complaints against PAPA. And they also added that if 204 00:11:19,080 --> 00:11:22,199 Speaker 2: a Medicare advantage plan were contracted with a partner that 205 00:11:22,240 --> 00:11:25,000 Speaker 2: they think isn't up to par with CMS standards, they 206 00:11:25,040 --> 00:11:28,720 Speaker 2: have meaningful ways to discourage a plan from using a service. 207 00:11:29,440 --> 00:11:32,480 Speaker 1: And what about the investors who have put a lot 208 00:11:32,480 --> 00:11:34,080 Speaker 1: of money behind this company. 209 00:11:34,640 --> 00:11:37,240 Speaker 2: We reached out to a number of investors for this story, 210 00:11:37,280 --> 00:11:40,840 Speaker 2: including SoftBank, Tiger Global, Lexis Ohanian, and they all declined 211 00:11:40,840 --> 00:11:41,240 Speaker 2: to comment. 212 00:11:41,920 --> 00:11:43,720 Speaker 1: So where do you think it goes from here? What 213 00:11:43,840 --> 00:11:44,880 Speaker 1: happens to Papa? 214 00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:48,840 Speaker 2: I'm interested in seeing whether health Plans re up contracts 215 00:11:48,880 --> 00:11:52,080 Speaker 2: with PAPA for next year. It'll also be interesting to 216 00:11:52,120 --> 00:11:55,240 Speaker 2: see what families think about this, I think, I mean, 217 00:11:55,679 --> 00:11:58,000 Speaker 2: I would like to hear from families that have hired 218 00:11:58,000 --> 00:12:00,719 Speaker 2: PAPA for their relatives. I spoke with a number of 219 00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:03,640 Speaker 2: families for the story, but I'm interested in hearing from 220 00:12:03,720 --> 00:12:06,120 Speaker 2: more about what they make of the precautions that the 221 00:12:06,120 --> 00:12:09,119 Speaker 2: company takes and whether they feel those are sufficient. 222 00:12:09,880 --> 00:12:11,600 Speaker 1: Priya, thanks for coming on the show. 223 00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:12,719 Speaker 3: Thanks for having me. 224 00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:18,439 Speaker 1: After the break. What the economics of aging tells us 225 00:12:18,480 --> 00:12:28,720 Speaker 1: about how to care for seniors. So now we've heard 226 00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:32,679 Speaker 1: about some of the challenges of helping seniors age gracefully, 227 00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:35,200 Speaker 1: and you can be sure many other companies will be 228 00:12:35,240 --> 00:12:38,240 Speaker 1: stepping up to figure out how to provide services to 229 00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:42,480 Speaker 1: older people. But that still leaves the big question, what 230 00:12:42,640 --> 00:12:46,320 Speaker 1: about the social programs intended to care for older Americans? 231 00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:49,240 Speaker 1: As we know, there is not a lot of political 232 00:12:49,320 --> 00:12:52,320 Speaker 1: appetite in Washington to tell the truth about the coming 233 00:12:52,440 --> 00:12:56,120 Speaker 1: costs of senior care. So will people ultimately have to 234 00:12:56,120 --> 00:12:59,360 Speaker 1: pay more or will they receive less? I put that 235 00:12:59,480 --> 00:13:03,520 Speaker 1: question to Jonathan Skinner. He's a research professor in economics 236 00:13:03,520 --> 00:13:07,280 Speaker 1: at Dartmouth, and he leads several projects funded by the 237 00:13:07,400 --> 00:13:09,080 Speaker 1: National Institute on Aging. 238 00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:12,880 Speaker 4: I don't think we're ready, and I think that the 239 00:13:12,920 --> 00:13:16,679 Speaker 4: impact of baby boomers is going to become strongest in 240 00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:20,439 Speaker 4: the next ten or fifteen years. The good thing is 241 00:13:20,480 --> 00:13:25,760 Speaker 4: that as people age currently that they're often in better health. 242 00:13:25,800 --> 00:13:28,719 Speaker 4: That is, people who are sixty five or seventy are 243 00:13:28,840 --> 00:13:32,679 Speaker 4: typically more active. Some of them are even working, they 244 00:13:33,040 --> 00:13:38,600 Speaker 4: are traveling. Whereas the problem comes when people turn eighty 245 00:13:38,679 --> 00:13:42,160 Speaker 4: five or ninety and they really do require a lot 246 00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:43,200 Speaker 4: of help. 247 00:13:44,160 --> 00:13:47,720 Speaker 1: And this question of people living longer. A couple generations ago, 248 00:13:47,760 --> 00:13:50,600 Speaker 1: we wouldn't be talking about so many people living to 249 00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:55,439 Speaker 1: be eighty five, let alone ninety five. What's involved in that, 250 00:13:55,720 --> 00:13:58,440 Speaker 1: in trying to take care of that many people. 251 00:13:58,640 --> 00:14:00,800 Speaker 5: Well, I view this as great news. 252 00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:04,480 Speaker 4: A society can only hope to have this many people 253 00:14:04,840 --> 00:14:07,840 Speaker 4: surviving to be eighty five or ninety and ninety five 254 00:14:07,880 --> 00:14:14,680 Speaker 4: and living rewarding lives as retirees. The problem comes when 255 00:14:15,320 --> 00:14:21,320 Speaker 4: they require assistance, and for many people who are older, 256 00:14:21,920 --> 00:14:28,760 Speaker 4: their needs aren't being met by the current insurance programs. Medicare, 257 00:14:29,400 --> 00:14:33,960 Speaker 4: for example, does not cover many things that older people 258 00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:35,720 Speaker 4: will need to require. 259 00:14:36,080 --> 00:14:38,760 Speaker 1: So Ashley, let's talk about the details of that. Because 260 00:14:39,280 --> 00:14:44,440 Speaker 1: medicare social Security, these programs that are specifically in place 261 00:14:44,520 --> 00:14:47,800 Speaker 1: for retired people, for older people, they were made for 262 00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:50,760 Speaker 1: another time. Can you talk about what the assumptions were 263 00:14:50,800 --> 00:14:53,720 Speaker 1: when these programs were put in place versus what the 264 00:14:53,800 --> 00:14:54,800 Speaker 1: needs are today. 265 00:14:55,120 --> 00:14:59,440 Speaker 4: That's a great question and it requires I could spend 266 00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:02,520 Speaker 4: a few hours talking about that, but let me start 267 00:15:02,560 --> 00:15:03,400 Speaker 4: with each one. 268 00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:03,840 Speaker 5: In turn. 269 00:15:04,280 --> 00:15:11,320 Speaker 4: Social Security certainly is flexible. It's a wonderful annuity, meaning 270 00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:14,800 Speaker 4: that it pays an amount until you die, so you 271 00:15:14,800 --> 00:15:17,480 Speaker 4: don't have to worry about running out of Social Security 272 00:15:17,920 --> 00:15:21,600 Speaker 4: for an individual. It also has a unique characteristic in 273 00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:24,560 Speaker 4: that it adjusts for inflation, so as inflation goes up, 274 00:15:25,000 --> 00:15:25,720 Speaker 4: you get more. 275 00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:27,680 Speaker 5: So it's a great system. 276 00:15:27,920 --> 00:15:31,200 Speaker 4: The problem is that it is very sensitive to baby 277 00:15:31,200 --> 00:15:34,280 Speaker 4: booms and baby busts, and so it's scheduled to start 278 00:15:34,360 --> 00:15:37,720 Speaker 4: running out of money in a decade or so. The 279 00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:41,400 Speaker 4: good news there is that I think that's fixable in 280 00:15:41,440 --> 00:15:44,720 Speaker 4: the sense that what we'll see is maybe a reduced 281 00:15:44,840 --> 00:15:48,240 Speaker 4: cost of living adjustments for people with higher incomes, maybe 282 00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:50,800 Speaker 4: slightly higher taxes. So I think that there are a 283 00:15:50,920 --> 00:15:56,600 Speaker 4: variety of ways that it could be fixed, assuming that 284 00:15:56,720 --> 00:15:59,960 Speaker 4: Congress bites the bullet and goes and does it. 285 00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:02,640 Speaker 5: Medicare is more difficult. 286 00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:07,480 Speaker 4: It was designed in nineteen sixty six to basically take 287 00:16:07,480 --> 00:16:10,000 Speaker 4: care of people who need hospital care and need to 288 00:16:10,040 --> 00:16:13,760 Speaker 4: see a doctor. It at the time didn't take into 289 00:16:13,840 --> 00:16:17,160 Speaker 4: account drugs, which it does now, which is great with 290 00:16:17,200 --> 00:16:21,640 Speaker 4: the prescription drug party, but it still is very limited 291 00:16:21,720 --> 00:16:24,760 Speaker 4: in the sense that it'll only cover a nursing home 292 00:16:25,360 --> 00:16:29,280 Speaker 4: if it's for rehabilitation purposes. It'll only cover home healthcare 293 00:16:29,440 --> 00:16:32,280 Speaker 4: if it's rehabilitation. That is, it has sort of a 294 00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:37,040 Speaker 4: natural ending. The alternative is Medicaid. 295 00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:39,040 Speaker 5: Which is for people who are either very sick or. 296 00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:44,200 Speaker 4: Are poor, and that generally doesn't pay as well, so 297 00:16:44,280 --> 00:16:46,680 Speaker 4: you can't always get into as nice a nursing home. 298 00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:50,320 Speaker 4: The problem are the people who are in between. You know, 299 00:16:50,440 --> 00:16:55,840 Speaker 4: they're taking care of their spouse. They realize that they 300 00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:58,640 Speaker 4: they're getting older too. They can't really take care of 301 00:16:58,680 --> 00:17:01,200 Speaker 4: the spouse the way they'd liked. They go to their 302 00:17:01,240 --> 00:17:04,960 Speaker 4: doctor to ask for help, and there's really nothing to 303 00:17:05,080 --> 00:17:08,960 Speaker 4: cover except for out of pocket payments for a private nurse. 304 00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:14,080 Speaker 4: And for many many Americans, that's just not feasible, and 305 00:17:14,160 --> 00:17:18,560 Speaker 4: so that's what I worry about, is that people are 306 00:17:18,560 --> 00:17:21,399 Speaker 4: trying to age in place. They don't want to go 307 00:17:21,440 --> 00:17:23,000 Speaker 4: to a nursing home, they don't want to give up 308 00:17:23,040 --> 00:17:25,760 Speaker 4: their independence, but they need help and it's not there. 309 00:17:27,400 --> 00:17:32,040 Speaker 1: And I guess another big challenge facing Medicaid in particular 310 00:17:32,440 --> 00:17:34,720 Speaker 1: is that at the time it was started, the assumptions 311 00:17:34,760 --> 00:17:36,920 Speaker 1: of how long people were going to live were much shorter, 312 00:17:37,119 --> 00:17:39,399 Speaker 1: and so when they did the calculations of what the 313 00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:42,640 Speaker 1: program were going to cost, they weren't taking into account 314 00:17:42,760 --> 00:17:45,960 Speaker 1: lots and lots of people living into their nineties. 315 00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:51,080 Speaker 4: That's exactly right, I think again, it's good news that 316 00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:53,800 Speaker 4: lots of people are living into their nineties, but both 317 00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:58,800 Speaker 4: higher health care costs and more people being covered it 318 00:17:58,920 --> 00:18:01,440 Speaker 4: means that, you know, in some way cases, people can 319 00:18:01,600 --> 00:18:04,280 Speaker 4: be receiving Medicare for as long as they paid in. 320 00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:06,679 Speaker 5: If they live to a ripe old age. 321 00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:12,600 Speaker 4: So that's definitely a problem, a more intractable problem than 322 00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:16,520 Speaker 4: Social Security for the federal government because there's no sort 323 00:18:16,520 --> 00:18:20,240 Speaker 4: of simple fix for Medicare, and that's. 324 00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:22,080 Speaker 1: Something that we talked about quite a lot. You know, 325 00:18:22,119 --> 00:18:24,600 Speaker 1: you can make those adjustments as you describe them to 326 00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:27,160 Speaker 1: social Security. Maybe some people who have more will get 327 00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:29,880 Speaker 1: a little bit less. You can eke out some more 328 00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:32,919 Speaker 1: years out of the system. But where does the money 329 00:18:32,920 --> 00:18:37,399 Speaker 1: come for expanding medicare as It will absolutely certainly have 330 00:18:37,480 --> 00:18:37,959 Speaker 1: to happen. 331 00:18:38,359 --> 00:18:39,959 Speaker 5: That is a really tough question. 332 00:18:40,840 --> 00:18:44,320 Speaker 4: Where will more money come from Medicare? I mean, they 333 00:18:44,359 --> 00:18:47,720 Speaker 4: are trying to increase the Part B premiums that's what 334 00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:52,359 Speaker 4: you pay when you retire, and they're trying to increase those, 335 00:18:52,400 --> 00:18:55,280 Speaker 4: but there's limits on how much they can spend. 336 00:18:56,240 --> 00:18:57,480 Speaker 5: I personally think. 337 00:18:57,280 --> 00:19:01,119 Speaker 4: That there are a lot of ways to save and expenditures. 338 00:19:01,800 --> 00:19:04,119 Speaker 4: I think there's a fair amount of waste in the 339 00:19:04,119 --> 00:19:10,119 Speaker 4: Medicare program, but I don't see it being politically popular. 340 00:19:11,119 --> 00:19:14,159 Speaker 4: In order to really change the system, you're going to 341 00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:18,040 Speaker 4: have to make a lot of people unhappy. There's an 342 00:19:18,040 --> 00:19:20,720 Speaker 4: old sort of saying that we try to remind ourselves 343 00:19:20,800 --> 00:19:23,200 Speaker 4: of when whatever we get involved with policy, is that 344 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:27,560 Speaker 4: when we talk about cutting Medicare costs, each dollar of 345 00:19:27,640 --> 00:19:31,879 Speaker 4: cost is somebody else's revenue, and they don't like having 346 00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:35,119 Speaker 4: their revenue cut because it's their livelihood. And so it 347 00:19:35,280 --> 00:19:39,639 Speaker 4: becomes very difficult to make changes in the policy world. 348 00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:43,200 Speaker 1: And just recently, we all saw this drama in Washington 349 00:19:43,440 --> 00:19:47,600 Speaker 1: over whether to raise the debt ceiling narrowly escaped a 350 00:19:47,760 --> 00:19:52,159 Speaker 1: disaster yet again. But these sorts of programs what to 351 00:19:52,240 --> 00:19:55,600 Speaker 1: spend government money on, we're front end center. What does 352 00:19:56,040 --> 00:20:00,880 Speaker 1: that sort of political argument over who gets what mean 353 00:20:01,160 --> 00:20:04,119 Speaker 1: for this aging population and all the money that it's 354 00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:05,640 Speaker 1: going to need to support it. 355 00:20:05,640 --> 00:20:09,760 Speaker 4: It makes me worried not so much about the current generation, 356 00:20:10,960 --> 00:20:15,160 Speaker 4: but about the people who expect to get medicare fifteen 357 00:20:15,240 --> 00:20:19,480 Speaker 4: years from now, because what's going on now is that 358 00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:22,040 Speaker 4: everybody's made a promise we're not going to touch Medicare, 359 00:20:22,080 --> 00:20:24,720 Speaker 4: we're not going to touch Social Security, but instead we'll 360 00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:28,679 Speaker 4: just keep expanding the debt and we'll basically fund this 361 00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:34,000 Speaker 4: stuff using deficit spending implicitly, and at some point that's 362 00:20:34,040 --> 00:20:37,160 Speaker 4: not going to work so well, and at that point 363 00:20:37,280 --> 00:20:41,600 Speaker 4: there will be or there could be, some serious cutbacks 364 00:20:41,680 --> 00:20:46,240 Speaker 4: in terms of what's offered to different people. What worries 365 00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:50,160 Speaker 4: me is that politicians will come up with the idea 366 00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:53,959 Speaker 4: of just cutting reimbursement rates as a way to shave 367 00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:58,240 Speaker 4: the amount that Medicare spends. And that's a pretty inefficient 368 00:20:58,320 --> 00:21:01,560 Speaker 4: way to cut back on spending because you end up 369 00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:05,760 Speaker 4: basically with care where the doctors just can't really afford 370 00:21:05,880 --> 00:21:07,359 Speaker 4: to provide that kind of care. 371 00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:13,080 Speaker 1: Well, another statistic that speaks directly to what you're saying 372 00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:17,040 Speaker 1: is that millennials now have surpassed baby boomers as the 373 00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:20,679 Speaker 1: largest living adult population. So this problem is only going 374 00:21:20,720 --> 00:21:23,399 Speaker 1: to get worse. As you say down the line, like 375 00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:25,280 Speaker 1: the thing we're looking at with the baby boomers is 376 00:21:25,359 --> 00:21:27,160 Speaker 1: just kind of a preview of what's to come. 377 00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:28,000 Speaker 5: I think that's right. 378 00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:30,639 Speaker 4: I think we have a stocked refrigerator and we've got 379 00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:33,600 Speaker 4: a bunch of people pulling stuff out of the refrigerator. 380 00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:35,360 Speaker 5: But when the next. 381 00:21:35,119 --> 00:21:37,520 Speaker 4: Group comes along, it's going to be like, huh, wait 382 00:21:37,560 --> 00:21:41,600 Speaker 4: a minute, they borrowed all this money. Now what are 383 00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:43,800 Speaker 4: we going to do? And that's what I worry about. 384 00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:46,359 Speaker 1: Just to throw another wrinkle into this, how did the 385 00:21:46,400 --> 00:21:50,720 Speaker 1: pandemic shape the landscape for care for seniors? 386 00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:53,680 Speaker 4: First of all, it was a disaster for people who 387 00:21:53,680 --> 00:21:58,320 Speaker 4: are in nursing homes. Some research we did suggest that 388 00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:04,960 Speaker 4: it wasn't simple COVID nineteen that caused excess mortality among say, 389 00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:09,919 Speaker 4: for example, people with dementia, but it was being shut up, 390 00:22:10,320 --> 00:22:13,680 Speaker 4: closed off being stuck in your room. That is, we 391 00:22:13,760 --> 00:22:17,480 Speaker 4: found even places there were very few COVID cases that 392 00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:22,360 Speaker 4: mortality was higher, particularly among people in nursing homes. 393 00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:23,399 Speaker 5: Sort of. 394 00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:26,760 Speaker 4: The sad thing is that now projections for Social Security 395 00:22:26,880 --> 00:22:30,119 Speaker 4: and Medicare have improved somewhat because so many people died 396 00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:35,600 Speaker 4: who were elderly. That is unfortunate, But I think that 397 00:22:35,920 --> 00:22:40,840 Speaker 4: the pandemic has also changed a lot of patterns in 398 00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:46,639 Speaker 4: how care is provided. It's increasingly expensive to hire a 399 00:22:46,720 --> 00:22:49,800 Speaker 4: competent person to work in a nursing home. 400 00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:51,280 Speaker 5: It's hard work in. 401 00:22:51,240 --> 00:22:53,480 Speaker 4: The longer term as there are more and more older 402 00:22:53,520 --> 00:22:56,000 Speaker 4: people that need to be taken care of. I think 403 00:22:56,080 --> 00:23:00,760 Speaker 4: that the cost structure of caregiving is going to go 404 00:23:00,920 --> 00:23:03,480 Speaker 4: up in ways that will surprise people. And I think 405 00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:07,760 Speaker 4: it may also change people's views about going into nursing homes. 406 00:23:07,800 --> 00:23:11,480 Speaker 4: That may cause some people to think twice given what 407 00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:16,840 Speaker 4: they observed, and perhaps cause them to remain in their 408 00:23:16,920 --> 00:23:20,679 Speaker 4: own home and try to have more independent living because 409 00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:22,960 Speaker 4: they saw what happened to their friends who were locked 410 00:23:23,000 --> 00:23:25,399 Speaker 4: down in a nursing home for like nine months. 411 00:23:26,640 --> 00:23:30,800 Speaker 1: When we come back, some possible solutions before the US 412 00:23:31,000 --> 00:23:42,439 Speaker 1: hits a senior care crisis. You know, we're talking about 413 00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:47,679 Speaker 1: the various government policy fixes institutions like nursing homes, but 414 00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:50,160 Speaker 1: is part of the problem just the way people live now. 415 00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:53,119 Speaker 1: It used to be that your parents would move in 416 00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:55,199 Speaker 1: with you, your grandparents would move in with you, and 417 00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:57,240 Speaker 1: you would care for them when they're aging. And now, 418 00:23:57,359 --> 00:24:01,600 Speaker 1: with our much more mobile population and families often living 419 00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:06,080 Speaker 1: far apart, has that changed the way older people are 420 00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:06,840 Speaker 1: just cared for. 421 00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:10,399 Speaker 4: Yes, But I think that change has started quite a 422 00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:14,359 Speaker 4: bit earlier. I think that the greater degree of migration 423 00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:19,560 Speaker 4: started really with baby boomers as children, so they were 424 00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:23,000 Speaker 4: moving around all over the country. They weren't exactly shall 425 00:24:23,040 --> 00:24:25,840 Speaker 4: we say, inviting their parents to come and live with them. 426 00:24:26,160 --> 00:24:28,840 Speaker 4: So I think some of that transition has occurred, and 427 00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:32,960 Speaker 4: there is much more emphasis on extended care facilities, on 428 00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:36,960 Speaker 4: places where there are a lot of older people living 429 00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:39,400 Speaker 4: but still doing kind of active things. 430 00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:43,280 Speaker 1: Like adult communities and places where you have independent living 431 00:24:43,320 --> 00:24:46,480 Speaker 1: but then can transition to greater levels of care as 432 00:24:46,520 --> 00:24:46,880 Speaker 1: you needed. 433 00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:50,560 Speaker 4: Exactly, you started at one place and then you kind 434 00:24:50,560 --> 00:24:52,880 Speaker 4: of moved to the next place, and then you moved 435 00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:55,720 Speaker 4: to the nursing home. So it's much more integrated and 436 00:24:56,440 --> 00:25:00,560 Speaker 4: your friends can come and visit you. There is people 437 00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:03,560 Speaker 4: who can't afford to buy in. If you happen to 438 00:25:03,600 --> 00:25:06,120 Speaker 4: have bought a house, you're in pretty good shape because 439 00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:08,760 Speaker 4: you can probably sell your house for a profit And 440 00:25:08,960 --> 00:25:11,520 Speaker 4: baby boomers made a lot of money on their houses 441 00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:15,560 Speaker 4: and they could afford the don payment to move into 442 00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:19,960 Speaker 4: these facilities. But for people who rented all their life 443 00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:22,320 Speaker 4: or never you know, maybe they lost their house in 444 00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:26,400 Speaker 4: a divorce or something, they're stuck. And so I definitely 445 00:25:26,440 --> 00:25:32,320 Speaker 4: worry about inequality for people who are aging, because once 446 00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:34,880 Speaker 4: you've reached a certain age, you can't do much to. 447 00:25:35,440 --> 00:25:38,200 Speaker 5: Undo any past financial mistakes. 448 00:25:39,880 --> 00:25:44,719 Speaker 1: What are your thoughts about non medical companion services that 449 00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:47,160 Speaker 1: have grown up in the last decade that helps seniors 450 00:25:47,160 --> 00:25:51,040 Speaker 1: with household tasks and groceries. Is this is service that 451 00:25:51,720 --> 00:25:53,119 Speaker 1: is really important? Do you think that we're going to 452 00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:54,640 Speaker 1: start to see more and more of this. 453 00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:55,760 Speaker 5: I think yes. 454 00:25:56,600 --> 00:26:00,920 Speaker 4: I think there's an increasing recognition that people and remained 455 00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:04,240 Speaker 4: independent if they get a little bit of help, if 456 00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:07,920 Speaker 4: they get help with laundry or shopping or things like that. 457 00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:10,919 Speaker 4: I certainly think if they ever come up with autonomous 458 00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:14,600 Speaker 4: cars driving cars, that would be a huge boon to 459 00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:18,960 Speaker 4: the elderly population, just because driving is a huge problem 460 00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:23,480 Speaker 4: for people who are seeking to remain independent. But the 461 00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:27,200 Speaker 4: downside for millennials is that the longer people stay in 462 00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:31,320 Speaker 4: their house, the more difficult it is going to be 463 00:26:31,359 --> 00:26:33,400 Speaker 4: for the next generation to buy their own house. 464 00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:37,960 Speaker 1: So what is the solution here. We have an enormous 465 00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:41,120 Speaker 1: number of people, we have a certain lack of will 466 00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:45,200 Speaker 1: in Washington to address it. Something's going to give eventually. 467 00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:48,800 Speaker 1: As someone who's studied this for a long time, where 468 00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:50,520 Speaker 1: do you see it heading? 469 00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:54,320 Speaker 4: I think nothing will happen until there's a crisis. And 470 00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:59,160 Speaker 4: my concern is that the crisis will occur when there's 471 00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:05,120 Speaker 4: an economic downturn and interest rates are up and the 472 00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:11,760 Speaker 4: debt burden becomes nearly intolerable. Everything's fine now because basically 473 00:27:11,800 --> 00:27:15,199 Speaker 4: the government's credit cards don't have a limit, and you 474 00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:17,240 Speaker 4: can keep going and keep going and keep going. But 475 00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:20,080 Speaker 4: at some point things don't work out well. 476 00:27:21,280 --> 00:27:24,119 Speaker 1: Jonathan Skinner, thanks so much for talking with me today. 477 00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:27,639 Speaker 1: Thank you thanks for listening to us here at the 478 00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:30,840 Speaker 1: Big Take. It's a daily podcast from Bloomberg and iHeartRadio. 479 00:27:31,200 --> 00:27:35,600 Speaker 1: For more shows from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio, app, Apple podcasts, 480 00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:38,560 Speaker 1: or wherever you listen, and we'd love to hear from you. 481 00:27:38,640 --> 00:27:41,560 Speaker 1: Email us with questions or comments to Big Take at 482 00:27:41,600 --> 00:27:44,960 Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot net. The supervising producer of The Big Take 483 00:27:45,040 --> 00:27:48,560 Speaker 1: is Vicky Bergolina. Our senior producer and the producer of 484 00:27:48,600 --> 00:27:52,800 Speaker 1: this episode is Catherine Fink. Phil de Garcia is our engineer. 485 00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:57,240 Speaker 1: Original music by Leo Sidrin. I'm wes Kasova. We'll be 486 00:27:57,280 --> 00:27:59,280 Speaker 1: back tomorrow with another Big Take. 487 00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:06,480 Speaker 3: Pang Dam Pan Pan Panda Bombar