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Speaker 1: An army of fools is no match for one guided tongue. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 1: you used to always tell me that I did not

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Speaker 1: know she was talking about college football until recently. Blake

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Speaker 1: kick his live. We are jam packed high atop a

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Speaker 1: bustling and very distracted and scatterbrained downtown Nashville, Tennessee, Sunday Night,

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Speaker 1: December seventeenth. The Year of our Lord twenty twenty three

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Speaker 1: is Chip Kelly. One of us? Was he one of us?

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Speaker 1: All along? I tried to tell you, and now I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna let him tell you, so you don't have to

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Speaker 1: trust me. I've got college football playoff predictions tonight. Rose Bowl.

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Speaker 1: We're picking the game tonight. Sugar Bowl, We're picking the

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Speaker 1: game tonight. It's that time of year. Producer Jesse and

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Speaker 1: director Colin and I look extra forward to the time

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Speaker 1: of year where we take your bold predictions from the

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Speaker 1: summer and then we bring them right back out for

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Speaker 1: the world to see in December, because for at least

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Speaker 1: a few minutes, it takes the heat off us and

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Speaker 1: it puts the heat or the shine on you. And

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Speaker 1: I've got a healthy amount of both at the end

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Speaker 1: of tonight's show, because some of you crashed and burned

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Speaker 1: fantastically and some of you really hit the nail on

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Speaker 1: the head. I got portal intel. We are less than

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Speaker 1: twenty four or forty eight seventy two hours from National

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Speaker 1: Signing Day or Early Signing Day, and we have got scoop,

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Speaker 1: we have got potential flips going down. So it is

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Speaker 1: a jam packed show. Do not go anywhere they are

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Speaker 1: watching us. And when NATCHI Washington, Duncanville, Texas, Preston, Idaho, Bradenton,

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Speaker 1: and Pensacola, Florida tuned in tonight, rob A Noodle Express

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Speaker 1: cranked back up yesterday. I don't know what else tell you.

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Speaker 1: If you're not already, you need to be following at

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Speaker 1: Lake Kick Josh, Twitter and Instagram, that's where those were posted.

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Speaker 1: I don't like putting the bowl picks out if I

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Speaker 1: haven't already picked them immediately until right before kickoff. So

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Speaker 1: they're not always going to be on the show. I

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Speaker 1: should have told you that, I guess so at Lake Josh,

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Speaker 1: make sure you're following, because we were on five of

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Speaker 1: them yesterday. I've got several more still in the bag

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Speaker 1: that we have not unveiled quite yet. All right, let's

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Speaker 1: get down to business. Normally, if it was playoff prediction night,

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Speaker 1: you would think I would lead the show with it,

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Speaker 1: and you'd be right. But not always. Friends, We're flexible.

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Speaker 1: We have an accordion type show around here, and so

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Speaker 1: we can expand or contract as needed. How messed up

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Speaker 1: is college football right now? Well, a little bit, in fact,

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Speaker 1: very severely. We've talked about that, you and I time

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Speaker 1: or ten, but I don't want to be the person

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Speaker 1: who paints with a broad negative brush. We love the sport,

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Speaker 1: as I have preached to you many times. Saturdays in

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Speaker 1: the fall still feel the exact same, the old rush.

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Speaker 1: You get on third and two, fourth and one, tied

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Speaker 1: up seventeen, they're on your opponent's thirty seven yard line.

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Speaker 1: Game hangs in the balance. No one really cares about

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Speaker 1: the transfer, portal ANDIL at that moment, so as long

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Speaker 1: as it still feels the same, we still got college football.

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Speaker 1: It's a long way from the sport going off the

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Speaker 1: cliff by stretch. However, that doesn't mean if we love

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Speaker 1: the sport that we can't call things out for what

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Speaker 1: they are. The college football calendar right now is garbage.

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Speaker 1: The way that nil and portal are working together is

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Speaker 1: not the way that they were intended, nor were they

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Speaker 1: ever going to be that for anyone with half a

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Speaker 1: brain on their shoulders. And so a lot of what

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Speaker 1: we're getting was both unintended and easy to see coming.

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Speaker 1: But we are where we are, Okay, I'm not going

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Speaker 1: to rehash that. We did a whole two or three

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Speaker 1: segments on that over the past year, including one last week. Well,

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Speaker 1: who cares what I think, right, I just wear the

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Speaker 1: same two or three white T shirts every week and

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Speaker 1: talking to microphone. But college football coaches have to live

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Speaker 1: this stuff every day. Players have to live this every day,

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Speaker 1: and so when they speak up about it, which is

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Speaker 1: too rare for my taste, but when they speak up

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Speaker 1: about it and they make a whole heck of a

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Speaker 1: lot of sense, we want to feature it on the show.

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Speaker 1: So Chip Kelly and the UCLA Bruins were in a

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Speaker 1: bowl game this week and they won. Congratulations. And before that,

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Speaker 1: Chip Kelly stepped to the microphone. And it's an interesting

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Speaker 1: time of year because you still have a game to

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Speaker 1: get ready for, but you also are reflecting and you

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Speaker 1: get asked some bigger picture questions. And so every coach

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Speaker 1: is being asked right now? What do you think about

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Speaker 1: the calendar? What do you think about the state of

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Speaker 1: college football? And some of them are very guarded about it.

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Speaker 1: Some of them are just wide open about it. But

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Speaker 1: maybe they're younger or they cannot articulate how aggravated they

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Speaker 1: are internally enough. But then you have other guys who

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Speaker 1: have a ton on their resume, and they've been around

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Speaker 1: the block a time or two, and they've seen the

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Speaker 1: game in all different kinds of iterations, and they're smart.

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Speaker 1: They're sharper than the decision makers themselves are, and they've

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Speaker 1: forgotten more about football than the decision makers. No one

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Speaker 1: of them is Chip Kelly, and so someone asked him,

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Speaker 1: what do you think about the sport right now? I'm

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Speaker 1: going to play you a couple of pieces of sound,

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Speaker 1: and I want you to consider how wild it is

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Speaker 1: that the entire college football world, known for being at

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Speaker 1: each other's throats, came together over about two or two

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Speaker 1: and a half minutes worth of Chip Kelly just sounding

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Speaker 1: off on college football. Here's the first cut. What is

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Speaker 1: the biggest issue that you might have right now, whether

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Speaker 1: it be realignment and il transfer portal, and what would

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Speaker 1: your plan maybe be to try to solve it.

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Speaker 2: I think they're all a problem, and I think we

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Speaker 2: need to have a conference commissioner. I think football should

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Speaker 2: be separate from the other sports. Just the fact that

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Speaker 2: our school is leaving to go to the Big Ten

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Speaker 2: in football, our softball team should be playing Arizona and softball.

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Speaker 2: Our basketball team should be playing Arizona and basketball. But

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Speaker 2: because football left. And they'll say, well, how do you

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Speaker 2: do that? Well, Notre Dame's independent in football and they're

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Speaker 2: in a conference and everything else. I think we should

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Speaker 2: all be independent in football.

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Speaker 1: Okay, I'll just say it because no one else wants

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Speaker 1: to say it. Obviously he's talking about me for commissioner.

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Speaker 1: But aside from that, whoever the commissioner is. Yeah, Like,

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Speaker 1: that's one of the most dull moments in college football

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Speaker 1: when you hear someone state it properly. How stupid is

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Speaker 1: it that the University of Washington softball team is about

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Speaker 1: to play in Pascadaway, New Jersey in a conference game.

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Speaker 1: It's ludicrous? But why Washington football is doing it? So

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Speaker 1: every sport under the UDUB umbrella has to do it

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Speaker 1: because we're all one athletic department. Well, if the term

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Speaker 1: student athlete has been laughable for a while because it's

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Speaker 1: in the reverse order that it should be. Athlete student

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Speaker 1: is the order it's always been, and well it's always

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Speaker 1: been in our lifetimes at least if that has long

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Speaker 1: since been figured out by everyone in the room again

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Speaker 1: with an IQ above room temperature, then it's not too

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Speaker 1: big a stretch to start to ask ourselves what about

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Speaker 1: this whole model. Who says that UCLA football or Georgia

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Speaker 1: football has to exist under the same university umbrella, under

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Speaker 1: the same parameter that UCLA or Georgia soccer do men's

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Speaker 1: and women's Who says that, well, somebody somewhere, so we

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Speaker 1: just go along with it. Now, I meanwhile, have a

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Speaker 1: sport at Penn State that turns about ninety nine percent

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Speaker 1: of the revenue for the athletic department. But by all means,

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Speaker 1: let's treat it the same as baseball. Let's not. Let's

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Speaker 1: not because we're not idiots, that's why. So that's the

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Speaker 1: first thing Chip Kelly said. Then he went on to

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Speaker 1: talk about a scheduling model and getting television networks and

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Speaker 1: getting big money people but also big brain people to

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Speaker 1: the same table, and understanding the greater good of college

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Speaker 1: football is really what should be served here instead of

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Speaker 1: the greater good of a university or the greater good

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Speaker 1: of a conference. No one thinks like that, of course

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Speaker 1: in college football, because college football doesn't exist. College football

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Speaker 1: doesn't exist. The sport exists, Saturdays in the fall exist.

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Speaker 1: You and I love it. I wouldn't be here if

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Speaker 1: it wasn't for the sport. But college football as an

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Speaker 1: entity isn't a thing. National Football League is, National Basketball

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Speaker 1: Association is. I know where their league offices are right now.

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Speaker 1: I could fly to New York City. Not interested in

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Speaker 1: doing it tonight, but I could fly up there and

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Speaker 1: I could go knock on the door and get security

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Speaker 1: to drag me away. Where is college football? Where's it located?

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Speaker 1: Where is the commissioner of this sport? Who runs this sport?

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Speaker 1: Of course those things don't exist, and so no one's

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Speaker 1: looking out for the greater good of the sport. Chip

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Speaker 1: Kelly's kind of hitting on that, But you know what

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Speaker 1: he also talked about. He also talked about the key to,

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Speaker 1: in my opinion, solving a ton of the issues that

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Speaker 1: currently exist, from your calendar to the inadequacy and inequity

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Speaker 1: in nil and transfer portal and how discombobulated that is

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Speaker 1: to everything in between. And he did it with this SoundBite,

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Speaker 1: and I would do this, and I think this needs

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Speaker 1: to be done.

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Speaker 2: That money now needs to be shared with the student athletes,

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Speaker 2: and there needs to be revenue sharing. The players should

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Speaker 2: get paid, and you can get rid of NLI and

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Speaker 2: the school should be paying the players because the players

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Speaker 2: are what the product is and the fact that they

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Speaker 2: don't get paid is really the biggest travesty.

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Speaker 1: Now, someone is going to come along and say, well,

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Speaker 1: I can't do that. Now. We're talking about a lot

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Speaker 1: of money there. We sure our friends, we're talking about

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Speaker 1: a ton of money. But I had stats and info

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Speaker 1: run the numbers, so I didn't have to. I'm just

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Speaker 1: gonna throw a number out there. Okay. I don't think

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Speaker 1: in the revenue sharing world, every scholarship football player in

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Speaker 1: a conference is going to make fifty grand a year,

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Speaker 1: but let's just say they do, because I think that

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Speaker 1: is a very very hearty number for a for a

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Speaker 1: left tackle at the University of I don't know Missouri

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Speaker 1: to be making, so let's just say they do. That's

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Speaker 1: a lot of money to distribute around there. Yet we

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Speaker 1: can't afford to do that. The heck you can't. It's

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Speaker 1: part of my language, of course, the heck you can't.

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Speaker 1: I look and I say, what if fifty thousand dollars

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Speaker 1: per scholarship football player was the revenue sharing number that

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Speaker 1: we arrived at, probably goes well above and beyond the

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Speaker 1: value of most of those players. The few superstar players notwithstanding,

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Speaker 1: college football players themselves are not worth that much money

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Speaker 1: per year in value. I don't deny you guys work hard.

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Speaker 1: I'm saying, in your overall value, you're not worth that much.

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Speaker 1: But hey, let's give it to you anyway. Let's go

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Speaker 1: fifty grand per year. Josh, that's a ton of money.

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Speaker 1: Is it really to you? And I? It is to

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Speaker 1: you and I. That's a ton of money. Multiply it

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Speaker 1: by eighty five. You don't have to. I did it

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Speaker 1: for Yes, four point twenty five million dollars per team

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Speaker 1: per year in payroll. That's half of what most of

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Speaker 1: your coaches are making per year. You're telling me you

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Speaker 1: can't afford to do that, especially if you reside in

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Speaker 1: a conference like the SEC. Forget about the university. Let's

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Speaker 1: just go every scholarship football player in the SEC. I

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Speaker 1: got sixteen schools down there. Starting this year, that would

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Speaker 1: be sixty eight million dollars to pay every scholarship football

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Speaker 1: player in that conference fifty grand a year. The SEC

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Speaker 1: just signed a new deal with ESPN where they get

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Speaker 1: three hundred million per year just in media rights dollars.

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Speaker 1: You can't afford to do it, I'd argue you can't

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Speaker 1: afford not to do it in the future because with

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Speaker 1: that inevitably comes employment and collective bargaining, and that scares

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Speaker 1: a lot of people. And I understand if you just

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Speaker 1: arrived from the past, if you teleport it here from

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Speaker 1: two thousand and three, it's terrifying. It's where you are now.

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Speaker 1: That's where you are. There's no going back. And it

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Speaker 1: doesn't have to be dirty and disgusting and messy either,

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Speaker 1: because when you get to that at least it's structured.

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Speaker 1: At least it's collectively bargained. And when you get to

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Speaker 1: that world, you know what else it means. It means governance,

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Speaker 1: and it means with the give, there is some take,

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Speaker 1: and the take is your NIL as it currently exists

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Speaker 1: is gone. NIL would still exist, but it wouldn't exist

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Speaker 1: as the recruiting inducement it is now. When kids are

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Speaker 1: getting paid that much money, your NIL would probably revert

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Speaker 1: in many ways to what NIL is supposed to be,

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Speaker 1: which is the folks whose names truly move the needle

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Speaker 1: are going to get serial endorsements and drink endorsement mints

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Speaker 1: and car dealership endorsements. That'll exist, but that's what NIL

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Speaker 1: is supposed to be. Anyway, what NIL is currently is illegal,

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Speaker 1: but it doesn't matter because there's no one policing the thing.

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Speaker 1: So leagues and in the future perhaps a college football office. Also,

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Speaker 1: if you enter into this kind of structure where we

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Speaker 1: are giving you a cut of this television and media

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Speaker 1: rights revenue in return, because it's collectively bargained, they get

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Speaker 1: to put that scholarship down on the table and say,

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Speaker 1: when you sign this, there's new language on here. It's

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Speaker 1: been collectively bargained. There's new language here. You're not going

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Speaker 1: in the portal whenever you feel like it. You're not

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Speaker 1: transferring out of here whenever you feel like it. Therefore,

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Speaker 1: your position coach doesn't have to be recruiting his own

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Speaker 1: position room in early November. That's not the way that

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Speaker 1: a real operational sport in the classical sense, is supposed

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Speaker 1: to work. But college football works that way now because

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Speaker 1: it's not operational and functional in the way it should be.

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Speaker 1: I wish a lot of coaches would follow Chip Kelly's lead.

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Speaker 1: And if, if not all of you feel equipped to

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Speaker 1: do it, that's okay. Why don't more of you do

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Speaker 1: what Chip Kelly did? Man Like every one of you

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Speaker 1: have complaints behind the scenes. I don't talk to a

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Speaker 1: single coach who says, well, I love the way things

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Speaker 1: are right now. If you don't talk, someone else is

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Speaker 1: going to. I would argue the absence of real, sharp,

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Speaker 1: football minded people speaking up has probably in many ways

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Speaker 1: contributed to getting us to where we are right now

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Speaker 1: to begin with, because if you don't fill that void,

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Speaker 1: somebody of lesser intelligence and smaller intellect is going to

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Speaker 1: And sometimes those people love to hear themselves talk, and

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Speaker 1: if there's a little power vacuum in the room, they'll

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Speaker 1: be happy to fill it. You're you're the ones who

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Speaker 1: have to actually work This schedule right now doesn't rub

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Speaker 1: you the wrong way enough to speak up about it.

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Speaker 1: What's going to happen is the commissioner college Football going

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Speaker 1: to come down on you. The league off is going

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Speaker 1: to come down on you. Do you think chip Kelly

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Speaker 1: got in trouble for this. Chip Kelly, if anything's getting

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Speaker 1: pats on the back for that. And by the way,

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Speaker 1: I don't know if you've recalli braded you're thinking on

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Speaker 1: this yet, you probably are still of the mentality that

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Speaker 1: Chip Kelly packed twelve head coach just spoke up. That

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Speaker 1: is big ten head coach Chip Kelly in the future,

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Speaker 1: you know, starting next year. That is a big ten.

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Speaker 1: So a race that logo behind his head there, that's

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Speaker 1: a big ten logo. That's the multi billion dollar question

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Speaker 1: in the room, isn't it. Would the Big ten ever

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Speaker 1: go for something like that? Would the SEC ever go

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Speaker 1: for something like that? If if status quo is maintained, No,

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Speaker 1: they don't have any reason to. The thinking for the

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Speaker 1: past billion years in this sport up until present day

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Speaker 1: has been self interest. Now, the NFL doesn't operate like that,

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Speaker 1: but the NFL was built from the inside out. There

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Speaker 1: is nothing the owner of the Cleveland Browns gets to

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Speaker 1: do of any substantial value that doesn't first have to

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Speaker 1: pass through the filter of what's best for the National

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Speaker 1: Football League. Conference commissioners do the opposite all the time.

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Speaker 1: University ad sometimes do it all the time. Coaches can

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Speaker 1: do it all the time because we don't run things

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Speaker 1: in this sport through a filter like that, and it

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Speaker 1: is time that we did so again. I would encourage

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Speaker 1: I know a lot of you listen. I appreciate you

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Speaker 1: guys for doing it. Chip Kelly ought not be the

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Speaker 1: last head coach who speaks out on this. He's not

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Speaker 1: the first. Harball spoke on it, save and spoken on

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Speaker 1: it like a lot of them have spoken on it.

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Speaker 1: But chip Kelly had his entire proposal. Chip Kelly was

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Speaker 1: at a campaign rally. He laid out his entire platform.

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Speaker 1: I know he's not the only one capable of doing that.

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Speaker 1: And there's a reason why the entire college football media ecosystem,

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Speaker 1: over the span of twenty four hours, kind of galvanized

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Speaker 1: around this. It's because everyone's been waiting for it. I

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Speaker 1: mean people who type for a living or talk for

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Speaker 1: a living man folks like that, including me, I talk

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Speaker 1: all day. There's power when you do it. There's a

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Speaker 1: whole lot more power when you do it than when

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Speaker 1: someone like me does it, because you actually live the

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Speaker 1: life I don't have. I have to live with the consequences.

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Speaker 1: If anything, I benefit from a lot of the mess

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Speaker 1: right now, because there are also cracks in which there

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Speaker 1: are opportunities to scale and build platforms like this. Now,

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Speaker 1: that's not going to go away. But I'm not nearly

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Speaker 1: as hurt by this stuff as you guys are. I

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Speaker 1: don't run the risk of being fired because I can't

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Speaker 1: build a roster, because to do so ethically would put

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Speaker 1: me ten miles behind the eight ball cause others aren't

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Speaker 1: doing it. I don't run that risk. You do so

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Speaker 1: if you want a more sustainable future, if you want

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Speaker 1: a more sustainable calendar, if you want some guardrails, if

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Speaker 1: you want an idea that the rules of your game

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Speaker 1: are going to be the same over a five year period,

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Speaker 1: for once in your coaching lives, do what Chip Kelly did.

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Speaker 1: Speak up and have an informed opinion. When you open

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Speaker 1: your mouth, folks, listen, I promise you, folks listen. And

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Speaker 1: contrary to popular belief, all of that matters. Nothing is

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Speaker 1: etched and stone right now. Let me remind you, guys,

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Speaker 1: we don't even have a playoff signed off on two

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Speaker 1: years from now. Do you realize that? Sure, we're going

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Speaker 1: to twelve this year and next year. So those two years,

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Speaker 1: people just keep thinking, are the starting point, and we'll

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Speaker 1: work off that and build off of it. No, you won't,

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Speaker 1: not necessarily. There is a blank sheet of paper in

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Speaker 1: the year twenty twenty six. I guess and beyond as

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Speaker 1: to how the future of this sport looks. Nobody knows.

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Speaker 1: It has to be agreed upon. I know that there

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Speaker 1: may be one school of thought that indicates or suggests

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Speaker 1: any kind of change like that would take years and

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Speaker 1: years and years. Hey, what if this is the absolute

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Speaker 1: best time to speak up? Because the years and years

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Speaker 1: and years aren't even decided right now. No one knows

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Speaker 1: the structure of this sport. If I asked you to

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Speaker 1: bet your life what conference is Florida State University in

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Speaker 1: five years from now, would you feel comfortable doing that?

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't. Clemson, I wouldn't. Virginia Tech I wouldn't. And

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Speaker 1: so if I ask you the same thing in twenty

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Speaker 1: eighteen about Texas and Oklahoma, most of us would be

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Speaker 1: dead because we would have bet our lives that they're

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Speaker 1: not going anywhere. They're going to be in the Big twelve.

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Speaker 1: What are you talking about? What kind of question is that?

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Speaker 1: And then all of a sudden they weren't, And so

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Speaker 1: things unexpected happen all the time. None of this stuff

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Speaker 1: is etchton Stone, and the people, if there are things

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Speaker 1: that tend to be etchton Stone, the people that have

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Speaker 1: the power to break the tablet are more than willing

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Speaker 1: to if a better idea is presented to them. You

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Speaker 1: just got to have the better ideas. Let's move it on.

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Speaker 1: Really happy. Chip Kelly said what he said, Chip Kelly

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Speaker 1: is one of us. I hope more of us speak up.

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Speaker 1: Transfer portal absolutely on fire, Ole Miss, absolutely on fire.

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Speaker 1: Some are saying the transfer portal is brought to you

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Speaker 1: by old Miss right now, and if you look at

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Speaker 1: the results, it's kind of hard to disagree. They got

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Speaker 1: the number one portal class in the country nine commits,

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Speaker 1: seven of them on defense. Lane Kiffin noted, defensive Mastermind

364
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Speaker 1: is putting on a transfer portal. Clint. They're in Oxford, Mississippi.

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Speaker 1: They are currently tied nationally with Colorado, I believe for

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Speaker 1: the most four star commits. They landed Juice Wells today,

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Speaker 1: the wide receiver out of South Carolina. That was expected,

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Speaker 1: but you still celebrate it when it happens. They are

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Speaker 1: the current crystal Ball favorite in many people, including my mind.

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Speaker 1: For Walter Nolan, that's a number one overall player in

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Speaker 1: the portal. You can tell. You can tell folks are

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Speaker 1: uncomfortable about this because there are a lot of people saying, Oh,

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Speaker 1: this is not a big deal. Oh man, you can't

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Speaker 1: portal your way to success. Well, you can supplementally portal

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Speaker 1: your way to success. Florida State just did it. Florida

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Speaker 1: State has no intention of building their team via the portal.

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Speaker 1: Mike Norvell knew what it took to jump start his

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Speaker 1: talent roster. But what you can do is you can

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Speaker 1: build through recruiting and supplement via the portal. And some

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Speaker 1: schools are gonna need to balance that percentage more so

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Speaker 1: than others. Ole Miss is in a current situation where

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Speaker 1: they have the most workable schedule in the SEC next

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Speaker 1: year out of perceived contenders, and they're in a situation

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Speaker 1: where they've got a lot of the pieces they already need.

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Speaker 1: They're not rebuilding their team, but what they are doing

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Speaker 1: is they're putting cherries on top of a number of

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Speaker 1: portions of that team. There's no guarantee that it coalesces

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Speaker 1: in jails as you hope it would. No, there's never

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Speaker 1: that guarantee, But I will guarantee you one thing. If

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Speaker 1: they didn't go get all these players that have no

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Speaker 1: shot at winning the SEC or going to the SEC championship.

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Speaker 1: So they're in much better position for having these players

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Speaker 1: than they would have been without. I don't know that

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Speaker 1: that's controversial, but you still have some folks out there

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Speaker 1: who just don't want to see Ole Miss succeed. I've

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Speaker 1: been blamed as having been one of those people in

397
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Speaker 1: the past, no, which had not been that. I've just

398
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Speaker 1: doubted that they could. And while I will still maintain

399
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Speaker 1: some skepticism, what they're doing is very significant right now,

400
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Speaker 1: very significant, and they got some big time players coming

401
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Speaker 1: back to that wide receiver stable is going to be

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Speaker 1: one of the best in the country next year. And

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Speaker 1: with Jackson Dart throwing the football to him and adding

404
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Speaker 1: players like this, I mean, if they land Walter Nolan

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Speaker 1: as well, you've got some big time pieces there. You've

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Speaker 1: got some pieces a lot of other contending teams would

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Speaker 1: want to have. Kyle McCord is headed to Syracuse. Kyle

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Speaker 1: McCord Ohio State starting quarterback Kyle McCord is headed to Syracuse.

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Speaker 1: Fran Brown, I don't know if a bunch of you

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Speaker 1: have been paying attention to this. So George's dB coach

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Speaker 1: Fran Brown got the head coaching position at Syracuse and

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Speaker 1: he's made a lot of noise. I mean, he's brought

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Speaker 1: in in addition to Kyle McCord, they brought in another

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Speaker 1: kid from Georgia. They've brought in obviously, well, kylem accord's

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Speaker 1: not from Georgia, Kmic course in Ohio state. They brought

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Speaker 1: into guys from Georgia. They're the crystal Ball favorite for

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Speaker 1: an edge kid from A and M. So that's the

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00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:54,919
Speaker 1: part of the country he's familiar with, and it's a

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00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:57,600
Speaker 1: team to watch in recruiting as well. I don't know

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Speaker 1: that they're gonna make overwhelming tsunami type waves this Wednesday.

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Speaker 1: It wouldn't be a shocker at all to see the

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Speaker 1: name Syracuse come out of nowhere for a kid or two.

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Speaker 1: Probably not steal any kid from Alabama, but I mean

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Speaker 1: there may be some Tier two or Tier three battles

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Speaker 1: where Syracuse makes some noise. But Colm Accord obviously an

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00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:20,919
Speaker 1: instant upgrade up there. Texas is doing big things on

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Speaker 1: all fronts right now. They have landed Matthew Golden. That's

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Speaker 1: the number four wide receiver in the portal. He was

429
00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:30,120
Speaker 1: out of Houston looking to have sort of an ad

430
00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:33,560
Speaker 1: Mitchell vibe about him. Texas is another program that is

431
00:22:34,200 --> 00:22:37,199
Speaker 1: building through recruiting. Had an argument that was one of

432
00:22:37,240 --> 00:22:40,000
Speaker 1: the dumbest arguments I have had all month, and that's

433
00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:45,000
Speaker 1: saying something yesterday where a guy told me team I

434
00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:47,720
Speaker 1: mean this actually came out of someone's Twitter mouth, teams

435
00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:51,840
Speaker 1: like Colorado and Texas. That's where you should end the

436
00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:54,800
Speaker 1: sentence because there is no comparison between those two. But

437
00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:57,800
Speaker 1: they're talking about teams, teams building through the portal. I

438
00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:01,520
Speaker 1: was told teams like Colorado and Texas. I hit up

439
00:23:01,520 --> 00:23:03,880
Speaker 1: Trey Scott because I thought I was going crazy. I said,

440
00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:07,720
Speaker 1: how many starters from technically that Texas has right now

441
00:23:07,720 --> 00:23:09,280
Speaker 1: from the portal. It was like three or four of them,

442
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:13,639
Speaker 1: and entire lines of scrimmage have been built organically. And

443
00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:16,000
Speaker 1: Texas will continue to do that. And what they will

444
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:19,960
Speaker 1: do is they will sprinkle because they can. They can

445
00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:22,520
Speaker 1: sprinkle guys like ad Mitchell from Georgia last year or

446
00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:25,440
Speaker 1: Matthew Golden this year, six foot hundred and ninety pounds,

447
00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:29,000
Speaker 1: he's a former four star and he is going to

448
00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:31,679
Speaker 1: fit very nicely in that offense. They are the crystal

449
00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:35,080
Speaker 1: Ball favorite for Andrew Maccuba. That's the number one safety

450
00:23:35,080 --> 00:23:37,680
Speaker 1: in the portal right now. He's out of Clemson a

451
00:23:37,800 --> 00:23:39,920
Speaker 1: rumor a couple of years ago, twenty twenty one All

452
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:45,280
Speaker 1: acc and a freshman All American. So again, this is

453
00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:48,639
Speaker 1: not a situation at least with the Texases of the

454
00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:52,040
Speaker 1: world where they are they're dependent, like they're in a

455
00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:54,840
Speaker 1: situation like South Carolina was where if they don't go

456
00:23:54,880 --> 00:23:58,640
Speaker 1: get those running backs, they don't have running backs. Texas

457
00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:02,960
Speaker 1: is okay, it's just that the extra added juice maybe

458
00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:06,120
Speaker 1: that it's going to take to win in the SEC

459
00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:08,880
Speaker 1: and make a playoff or make an SEC championship game,

460
00:24:09,480 --> 00:24:11,879
Speaker 1: same thing BAM has done. That's where you go to

461
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:13,479
Speaker 1: the portal. I mean BAM. A couple of years ago,

462
00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:17,120
Speaker 1: Jameson Williams had done virtually nothing at Ohio State, came

463
00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:20,000
Speaker 1: in best receiver on their team because they had opportunity

464
00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:22,399
Speaker 1: to offer him that Ohio State didn't have because their

465
00:24:22,400 --> 00:24:26,879
Speaker 1: position group was to load him. Speaking of Jamison, I

466
00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:30,520
Speaker 1: would hope for Penn State's sake that that comp holds

467
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 1: true here because Julian Fleming is crystal bald to Penn State.

468
00:24:35,240 --> 00:24:39,960
Speaker 1: I should pause because it comes to my attention some

469
00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:41,880
Speaker 1: of you may not know what that means. The crystal

470
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:44,719
Speaker 1: ball is a feature at twenty four to seven sports

471
00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:48,880
Speaker 1: where various experts and insiders they can basically predict what

472
00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:51,200
Speaker 1: they are hearing and what they think is going to happen.

473
00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:55,239
Speaker 1: It's a pretty accurate tool, a predictive tool, not one

474
00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:58,800
Speaker 1: hundred percent, not fool proof because you're dealing with people

475
00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:03,800
Speaker 1: who change their minds. But Julian Fleming. Fleming is from Pennsylvania,

476
00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:06,000
Speaker 1: originally committed to Ohio State. He was a number one

477
00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:10,440
Speaker 1: receiver in the twenty twenty class and so he's he's

478
00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 1: been at Ohio State. He never broke out and had

479
00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:17,480
Speaker 1: twenty six catches this year in twelve games. So nothing

480
00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:21,639
Speaker 1: overly special, but has the potential and as a feature receiver,

481
00:25:21,680 --> 00:25:24,240
Speaker 1: which he would be at Penn State and a veteran

482
00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:27,280
Speaker 1: leader in a room that needs it at Penn State

483
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:30,560
Speaker 1: read between the lines there. He would probably have that

484
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:33,639
Speaker 1: opportunity with a quarterback who still I think has a

485
00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:36,760
Speaker 1: ton of upside and Drew Aller that Penn State wide

486
00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:40,000
Speaker 1: receiver room kind of liked that South Carolina running back room.

487
00:25:40,119 --> 00:25:42,960
Speaker 1: They need impact guys like this. They don't have them

488
00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:46,560
Speaker 1: right now. Lambert Smith was their leading receiver this year

489
00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:49,280
Speaker 1: and had six hundred and seventy three so that is

490
00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:53,639
Speaker 1: badly needed. The transfer portal is there. It feels like

491
00:25:53,640 --> 00:25:55,960
Speaker 1: there are five million kids in that thing right now.

492
00:25:56,200 --> 00:25:59,520
Speaker 1: So just stay tuned and remember we've got national signing.

493
00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:02,560
Speaker 1: They come in up this Wednesday, and coaching staffs are

494
00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:05,280
Speaker 1: trying to handle both of those things at the same time. Again,

495
00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:13,639
Speaker 1: isn't our calendar great? Academy sports and outdoors would never

496
00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:16,320
Speaker 1: have such a thing happen. You know what they've been doing.

497
00:26:16,480 --> 00:26:20,000
Speaker 1: I don't know how they arranged this, and I don't

498
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:23,320
Speaker 1: really care, but Carson Beck announced that he's coming back

499
00:26:23,359 --> 00:26:26,280
Speaker 1: to Georgia for his senior year and he was randomly

500
00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:29,720
Speaker 1: just like at an academy. While he did it, he's

501
00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:33,560
Speaker 1: tossing the football around, which again is discouraged, but I

502
00:26:33,560 --> 00:26:35,880
Speaker 1: think they have an exemption. If you are a starting

503
00:26:35,920 --> 00:26:39,400
Speaker 1: Power five quarterback. They trust your accuracy enough to where

504
00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:41,640
Speaker 1: you can go in their stores and you can toss

505
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:45,600
Speaker 1: the pig around. You can chuck it around. It's okay,

506
00:26:45,840 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 1: just if you're not one of those. Just take it

507
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:50,040
Speaker 1: in the parking lot, buy it, take it in the

508
00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:52,000
Speaker 1: parking lot, get some big leak two in the checkout line.

509
00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:54,720
Speaker 1: Taking the parking lot. Academy dot com is a very

510
00:26:54,760 --> 00:26:57,320
Speaker 1: important website for you to know you're wrapping up your

511
00:26:57,359 --> 00:27:00,679
Speaker 1: Christmas shopping. I wish you all the best. Maybe you

512
00:27:00,680 --> 00:27:03,119
Speaker 1: can't get to one in person Academy dot com. Now

513
00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:04,520
Speaker 1: I ask for those of you who can get there

514
00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:08,040
Speaker 1: in person, go to Academy Sports and Outdoors. I was

515
00:27:08,160 --> 00:27:15,960
Speaker 1: watching a movie with someone the other night. I think

516
00:27:16,000 --> 00:27:17,720
Speaker 1: you know who I'm talking about if you follow me

517
00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:21,160
Speaker 1: close enough on the GRAM, and the following sentence came

518
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:26,919
Speaker 1: out of this person's mouth. Hogwarts is so magical this

519
00:27:27,040 --> 00:27:30,359
Speaker 1: time of year. Now, as we all know, that's not

520
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:34,600
Speaker 1: a real place. But Academy is a real place. And

521
00:27:34,760 --> 00:27:38,919
Speaker 1: Academy is so magical this time of year. And I

522
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:42,000
Speaker 1: don't need you to believe me. That's what's great about it. Guys,

523
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:45,680
Speaker 1: go find out for yourself and you'd be shocked at

524
00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:48,560
Speaker 1: the variety in that place. I got a lot of

525
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:50,560
Speaker 1: compliments on the viewer email, by the way, that we

526
00:27:50,600 --> 00:27:53,919
Speaker 1: read the other night from our buddy out in Colorado

527
00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:56,880
Speaker 1: that made his way to an academy for the first time. Hey,

528
00:27:57,240 --> 00:27:59,399
Speaker 1: no one ever sends me disappointed emails. Let me just

529
00:27:59,400 --> 00:28:02,919
Speaker 1: say that I need to turn my phone over right now.

530
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:04,600
Speaker 1: It's what I need to do. You know what we

531
00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:07,760
Speaker 1: need to do. Actually, we need to predict the college

532
00:28:07,800 --> 00:28:11,359
Speaker 1: football playoff. It's that time. We are twenty eight minutes

533
00:28:11,359 --> 00:28:14,240
Speaker 1: into the show. Perhaps I have, as Memal would say,

534
00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:16,840
Speaker 1: beat around the bush a little bit too long. Pull

535
00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:19,720
Speaker 1: out the sling blade no longer. I got to take

536
00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:22,040
Speaker 1: a sit from the chalice, and I'm just gonna put

537
00:28:22,040 --> 00:28:25,160
Speaker 1: myself out there. I will be ridiculed because we are

538
00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:28,840
Speaker 1: dealing with four fan bases who, at various points I

539
00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:31,480
Speaker 1: have picked against this year, and they will come after

540
00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:34,399
Speaker 1: you in the comments no matter how sound your logic is.

541
00:28:34,440 --> 00:28:37,080
Speaker 1: But it is a mathematical certainty. Two of you are

542
00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:40,360
Speaker 1: about to lose on New Year's Day. I'm just trying

543
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:42,440
Speaker 1: to figure out which one of you are going down.

544
00:28:44,880 --> 00:28:48,600
Speaker 1: And with that ultratury and positive intro, here we go,

545
00:28:49,520 --> 00:28:53,760
Speaker 1: Washington versus Texas. It is the Sugar Bowl. It is Monday,

546
00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:58,320
Speaker 1: January first, eight, forty five pm from the Superdome in

547
00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:01,640
Speaker 1: New Orleans, Louisiana. Curren't FanDuel numbers. Let's check them out.

548
00:29:01,680 --> 00:29:05,320
Speaker 1: Texas minus four and a half the total in the

549
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:07,880
Speaker 1: low sixties here sixty three and a half. Did you

550
00:29:07,960 --> 00:29:10,840
Speaker 1: notice the public knee jerk reaction when this game was announced?

551
00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:13,120
Speaker 1: Maybe you fell victim to it. I know I did.

552
00:29:13,800 --> 00:29:18,040
Speaker 1: They announced Washington versus Texas, in my mind said oh Texas, Texas.

553
00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:22,040
Speaker 1: Probably you know, And then you think about it a

554
00:29:22,040 --> 00:29:24,200
Speaker 1: little more. Maybe you dive into some of the stat

555
00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:29,200
Speaker 1: profiles and you say, uh, oh, matchup issues here for Texas.

556
00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:34,120
Speaker 1: And then if you're really brave, you dive deep, deep, deep,

557
00:29:34,200 --> 00:29:38,920
Speaker 1: and you go, hmmm, maybe that stat profile is not

558
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:43,560
Speaker 1: as it appears. And then only just the pure psychopaths

559
00:29:43,560 --> 00:29:46,160
Speaker 1: amongst us dive into the fourth tier, and that is

560
00:29:46,160 --> 00:29:48,960
Speaker 1: is it an angel demon situation on each shoulder? Where

561
00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:51,560
Speaker 1: I had it figured out originally? And then my evil

562
00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:54,120
Speaker 1: subconscious is trying to mislead me to where I pick

563
00:29:54,120 --> 00:29:56,640
Speaker 1: against Washington for like the ninth time this year. And

564
00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:58,760
Speaker 1: that's a dark, dark place to be. You look in

565
00:29:58,800 --> 00:30:00,480
Speaker 1: the mirror in the bathroom in the morning, you don't

566
00:30:00,560 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 1: like the person looking back at you. So here's what

567
00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:05,120
Speaker 1: I'm going to try and do. I'm going to try

568
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:08,360
Speaker 1: and figure out how Washington, with the number one passing

569
00:30:08,400 --> 00:30:11,440
Speaker 1: offense in the country fares against Texas with the number

570
00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:14,160
Speaker 1: ninety six passing defense in the country. And I can

571
00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:17,240
Speaker 1: hear you right now yelling not too good, Josh, not

572
00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 1: too good. Don't overthink the room. Well, allow me to

573
00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:24,120
Speaker 1: overthink the room for a second, because on the other side,

574
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:27,240
Speaker 1: Texas has got the number four run defense, Washington number

575
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:30,720
Speaker 1: one hundred running the ball in the country. So those

576
00:30:30,800 --> 00:30:33,760
Speaker 1: numbers would indicate to you Washington could throw the ball

577
00:30:33,760 --> 00:30:37,000
Speaker 1: all down Texas, and even though Washington may not be

578
00:30:37,080 --> 00:30:40,000
Speaker 1: able to run it, it doesn't really matter because they

579
00:30:40,040 --> 00:30:43,240
Speaker 1: can do. The first thing is that how football works

580
00:30:43,720 --> 00:30:48,120
Speaker 1: in my experience most of the time, No, in my experience,

581
00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:51,840
Speaker 1: and watching Texas a little bit closer this year, a

582
00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:54,440
Speaker 1: lot of that has come because teams have been playing

583
00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:56,560
Speaker 1: catch up against Texas. A lot of it's come when

584
00:30:56,600 --> 00:30:58,840
Speaker 1: they're up two to three scores and teams have no

585
00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:01,720
Speaker 1: choice but to pass the ball, and those stat profiles

586
00:31:01,760 --> 00:31:04,560
Speaker 1: and those box scores have become a little bit tilted.

587
00:31:04,960 --> 00:31:07,200
Speaker 1: It's not that the yards don't count, it's not that

588
00:31:07,200 --> 00:31:10,240
Speaker 1: the points they gave up don't count. It's just if

589
00:31:10,320 --> 00:31:13,480
Speaker 1: I have them in a one possession back and forth

590
00:31:13,520 --> 00:31:16,880
Speaker 1: affair either way against Washington on New Year's Day in

591
00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:20,480
Speaker 1: the Superdome, do those numbers hold up? I guess it's

592
00:31:20,480 --> 00:31:22,520
Speaker 1: what I'm trying to figure out. I'm not so sure

593
00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:24,000
Speaker 1: that's the way it works. But you know what, on

594
00:31:24,040 --> 00:31:26,400
Speaker 1: the other side, I'm not so sure they're gonna shut

595
00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:29,720
Speaker 1: Washington down running the ball. Now. These are the kinds

596
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:32,280
Speaker 1: of sentences that were not coming out of our collective

597
00:31:32,320 --> 00:31:36,960
Speaker 1: mouths about two months ago. But then Washington all of

598
00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:40,320
Speaker 1: a sudden figured out, wait a second, we're gonna run

599
00:31:40,320 --> 00:31:42,800
Speaker 1: the ball half decent. I know what the numbers say,

600
00:31:42,880 --> 00:31:45,160
Speaker 1: Like I know if Texas top five run defense and

601
00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:48,360
Speaker 1: Washington's and the triple digits, I know those numbers suggest

602
00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:52,360
Speaker 1: they shouldn't be able to run the ball effectively. Washington's

603
00:31:52,400 --> 00:31:57,360
Speaker 1: no joke. Washington's no joke up front. Physically, they're no joke. Now,

604
00:31:57,400 --> 00:31:59,760
Speaker 1: Texas isn't either defensively, That's why they have that kind

605
00:31:59,760 --> 00:32:03,680
Speaker 1: of number they do. Washington has not seen a player

606
00:32:03,720 --> 00:32:06,440
Speaker 1: like Sweat all year in the middle of an interior

607
00:32:06,480 --> 00:32:09,440
Speaker 1: defensive line. I will grant you all that. I am

608
00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:13,160
Speaker 1: just telling you I don't expect to turn this game

609
00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:19,560
Speaker 1: on and see Texas swarming and overwhelming Washington physically at

610
00:32:19,560 --> 00:32:23,160
Speaker 1: the line of scrimmage defense versus offense. They may win it.

611
00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:27,680
Speaker 1: They it may be stalemate to slight Texas win. I

612
00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:30,880
Speaker 1: know too well, because I have learned the hard way.

613
00:32:31,200 --> 00:32:35,240
Speaker 1: You're not overwhelming Washington there, and they can manufacture run

614
00:32:35,320 --> 00:32:38,600
Speaker 1: on the perimeter through the air. They will have I

615
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:42,160
Speaker 1: think enough success running to where they can maintain, if

616
00:32:42,200 --> 00:32:45,800
Speaker 1: not outright balance, at least the illusion of balance. Now

617
00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:48,120
Speaker 1: on our show, we don't believe in balance as being

618
00:32:48,120 --> 00:32:51,320
Speaker 1: a statistical thing. We just think balance is if the

619
00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:54,280
Speaker 1: other guy has to respect your ability to run the

620
00:32:54,280 --> 00:32:56,520
Speaker 1: ball and pass the ball, you're as balanced as you

621
00:32:56,560 --> 00:32:59,160
Speaker 1: need to be. At that point, stat sheet doesn't matter.

622
00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:02,440
Speaker 1: Washington just needs chain movers. That's what they need. They

623
00:33:02,520 --> 00:33:05,520
Speaker 1: need to move the chains on third down. They against

624
00:33:05,640 --> 00:33:08,600
Speaker 1: Washington have put on two clinics this year. They were

625
00:33:08,640 --> 00:33:12,840
Speaker 1: fifteen of twenty six combined on third down against Oregon

626
00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:15,680
Speaker 1: in the two games that they won. They were seventeen

627
00:33:15,720 --> 00:33:19,560
Speaker 1: of thirty against Oregon on third and fourth downs, and

628
00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:21,920
Speaker 1: those were the two biggest games they played all year.

629
00:33:23,280 --> 00:33:25,440
Speaker 1: Here's that stat sheet again. I might as well pop

630
00:33:25,480 --> 00:33:29,280
Speaker 1: the paper. Texas. They look like they have the remedy

631
00:33:29,280 --> 00:33:35,040
Speaker 1: for it. Number two defense in the country on third down. Now,

632
00:33:35,400 --> 00:33:38,160
Speaker 1: I was out at the PAC twelve championship game and

633
00:33:38,440 --> 00:33:42,440
Speaker 1: paper you know this stuff here indicated that Oregon should

634
00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:46,280
Speaker 1: have an overwhelming edge on both third down and on

635
00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:50,080
Speaker 1: the ground, and they had edges in neither category. Did

636
00:33:50,120 --> 00:33:52,800
Speaker 1: that mean the paper was lying to me? No, the

637
00:33:52,840 --> 00:33:56,680
Speaker 1: paper just says what it says the stats. Stats don't lie,

638
00:33:57,080 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 1: but they can very badly mislead you. Stats don't lie

639
00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:02,880
Speaker 1: because stats are just showing you what has happened. Where

640
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:05,800
Speaker 1: they lie to you is if you assume they always

641
00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:09,359
Speaker 1: predict the future. And that's where Washington's won games and

642
00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:12,480
Speaker 1: made some people, your boy included, look foolish in the process.

643
00:34:13,040 --> 00:34:15,239
Speaker 1: So just because that's the way it's happened this year

644
00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:17,240
Speaker 1: doesn't mean that's the way it does have to happen

645
00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:22,279
Speaker 1: on one night in early twenty twenty four. Red zone

646
00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:26,279
Speaker 1: is always huge. We always check that, especially in these

647
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:29,560
Speaker 1: big time games where you don't have major edges, so

648
00:34:29,600 --> 00:34:34,000
Speaker 1: you're looking for incremental edges here or there. Texas, you

649
00:34:34,080 --> 00:34:36,680
Speaker 1: know what they need to avoid. They need to avoid

650
00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:39,480
Speaker 1: that Oklahoma day in the red zone. Remember the Red

651
00:34:39,560 --> 00:34:43,200
Speaker 1: River shoot out. This year, Texas out does Oklahoma. It

652
00:34:43,239 --> 00:34:45,160
Speaker 1: felt like in a few areas, but they get in

653
00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:49,160
Speaker 1: the red zone a bunch and they don't score. Oh oh,

654
00:34:49,239 --> 00:34:53,040
Speaker 1: the paper has something to say, mind you, Washington one

655
00:34:53,120 --> 00:34:56,719
Speaker 1: hundred and nineteenth defense in the country in red zone

656
00:34:56,760 --> 00:35:00,239
Speaker 1: touchdown ratio. So look at that the paper. My as

657
00:35:00,239 --> 00:35:03,680
Speaker 1: well be burnt orange. The paper is screaming Texas right now.

658
00:35:04,280 --> 00:35:07,360
Speaker 1: Here's what the paper doesn't know. I don't know this either.

659
00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:10,759
Speaker 1: Who's gonna handle this moment better? No one's got experience.

660
00:35:11,560 --> 00:35:13,919
Speaker 1: I mean, Sark's been there with Alabama, but his team

661
00:35:13,960 --> 00:35:16,160
Speaker 1: doesn't have experience in this. Kaylin de Bor's got his

662
00:35:16,239 --> 00:35:20,520
Speaker 1: guys going into an extremely hostile environment. Probably seventy five

663
00:35:20,680 --> 00:35:25,280
Speaker 1: twenty five Texas if they're lucky, If Washington's lucky, that'll

664
00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:27,920
Speaker 1: be the edge it maybe eighty twenty eighty five point fifteen.

665
00:35:28,640 --> 00:35:33,200
Speaker 1: Hat tip Alaskan Airlines for adding flights to New Orleans.

666
00:35:33,200 --> 00:35:36,360
Speaker 1: I criticized them two weeks ago. They came through. I

667
00:35:36,400 --> 00:35:39,799
Speaker 1: can't help but take partial credit for that. Some of

668
00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:42,520
Speaker 1: you don't realize I'm being sarcastic there when I say that,

669
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:44,759
Speaker 1: So let me let me remind you I'm being sarcastic.

670
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:46,840
Speaker 1: But it's gonna be a tough ticket, man. It's just

671
00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:49,680
Speaker 1: it's it's New Orleans and Houston. That's where the semi

672
00:35:49,719 --> 00:35:51,839
Speaker 1: final and final is. It couldn't have set up any

673
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:55,320
Speaker 1: better if you're a Texas Longhorn fan. But having said that,

674
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:57,520
Speaker 1: that doesn't mean anything. If you come out of the

675
00:35:57,560 --> 00:36:00,000
Speaker 1: gates stumbling in Washington gets a ten zero lead on you,

676
00:36:00,200 --> 00:36:03,960
Speaker 1: it doesn't matter. And so who handles the moment, Because

677
00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:06,799
Speaker 1: if Texas gets the ten zero lead and they start

678
00:36:06,840 --> 00:36:09,400
Speaker 1: leveraging that home crowd, then it matters a whole lot.

679
00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:12,279
Speaker 1: I don't know who to expect handling that moment better.

680
00:36:12,280 --> 00:36:15,000
Speaker 1: I could see Texas playing as tight as a snare drum.

681
00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:18,960
Speaker 1: I could also see him. I could see him just

682
00:36:19,040 --> 00:36:20,840
Speaker 1: jumping out to an early lead like they did against

683
00:36:20,840 --> 00:36:24,680
Speaker 1: Oklahoma State. Actually, you scratch that. That's the first and

684
00:36:24,760 --> 00:36:27,120
Speaker 1: last time you'll hear me compare Washington and Oklahoma State

685
00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:29,200
Speaker 1: on the show tonight. But I could see him starting

686
00:36:29,200 --> 00:36:31,560
Speaker 1: off fast. I don't know what to expect there. I

687
00:36:31,560 --> 00:36:33,759
Speaker 1: think the game will eventually settle in and that's where

688
00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:35,920
Speaker 1: I think you need to forget about any illusions you

689
00:36:36,000 --> 00:36:40,120
Speaker 1: have in your mind of Texas just out athleting Washington.

690
00:36:40,640 --> 00:36:43,480
Speaker 1: I know what the team talent composite rating says, I

691
00:36:43,520 --> 00:36:47,479
Speaker 1: know what the recruiting rankings say. I know Washington too.

692
00:36:48,239 --> 00:36:51,000
Speaker 1: You're not gonna badly out athlete them. You won't make

693
00:36:51,040 --> 00:36:53,000
Speaker 1: them look foolish. You may beat them, you may beat

694
00:36:53,080 --> 00:36:55,520
Speaker 1: them by ten or fourteen points, but you're not running

695
00:36:55,520 --> 00:36:59,279
Speaker 1: circles around them. You're not gonna overwhelm them. You're gonna

696
00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:02,880
Speaker 1: do good to just beat them. So getting rid of

697
00:37:02,920 --> 00:37:07,640
Speaker 1: that illusion, have you found enough margins on the edges

698
00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:10,560
Speaker 1: of these different points of interest in the game? Have

699
00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:12,200
Speaker 1: you found enough? Let's take a look at what the

700
00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:14,800
Speaker 1: odds makers say. It's FanDuel right now minus four and

701
00:37:14,840 --> 00:37:18,600
Speaker 1: a half in favor of Texas. Our model not shockingly

702
00:37:19,239 --> 00:37:22,120
Speaker 1: has Texas as a bigger favorite Texas minus six. Now,

703
00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:27,399
Speaker 1: I'm gonna say something here that is probably not the

704
00:37:27,440 --> 00:37:29,760
Speaker 1: wisest of words to come out of my mouth, given

705
00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:33,120
Speaker 1: how short the JP pole has been on Washington all year.

706
00:37:33,160 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 1: But I do want you to know I did the

707
00:37:36,120 --> 00:37:40,480
Speaker 1: manual adjustment heading into playoffs, so we manually adjusted Washington

708
00:37:40,640 --> 00:37:43,560
Speaker 1: and add it in a couple of different categories. So

709
00:37:44,040 --> 00:37:49,080
Speaker 1: this is a revamp number model still leans Texas when

710
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:52,160
Speaker 1: in doubt, I will go with the model, and it

711
00:37:52,200 --> 00:37:55,440
Speaker 1: has not fared well with Washington games this year. Readily

712
00:37:55,520 --> 00:37:59,240
Speaker 1: admit that, but I didn't find any reason to flip

713
00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:03,120
Speaker 1: it myself. So in absence of that, I'm gonna take

714
00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:06,360
Speaker 1: Texas to win. I have no confidence whatsoever on the

715
00:38:06,400 --> 00:38:09,000
Speaker 1: spread I will take them to cover. There will be

716
00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:11,600
Speaker 1: no money wagered on this game from me. I will

717
00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:14,160
Speaker 1: just sit back and watch. I'm gonna take Texas to win.

718
00:38:14,640 --> 00:38:16,600
Speaker 1: What I think will happen is they'll be wild swings

719
00:38:16,600 --> 00:38:19,120
Speaker 1: of emotion, But I think second half game will be

720
00:38:19,160 --> 00:38:21,799
Speaker 1: in the balance either way, and I think Texas is

721
00:38:21,880 --> 00:38:24,399
Speaker 1: just a little bit better team to where they win

722
00:38:24,400 --> 00:38:28,080
Speaker 1: it in the end, not overwhelmingly. Don't expect anything like

723
00:38:28,160 --> 00:38:31,480
Speaker 1: that really competitive game. I'm gonna take Texas to win it, though,

724
00:38:33,120 --> 00:38:36,560
Speaker 1: of course he is, says my friends in the Pacific Northwest.

725
00:38:37,000 --> 00:38:41,919
Speaker 1: They're watching us in Call Lake, Oklahoma, Branson, Missouri, Vestavia Hills, Alabama,

726
00:38:42,320 --> 00:38:45,560
Speaker 1: and Valdosta, Georgia. Thank you guys so much for being

727
00:38:45,600 --> 00:38:50,000
Speaker 1: tuned in. If you're watching live, please remember to subscribe.

728
00:38:50,320 --> 00:38:53,120
Speaker 1: And if you're listening on podcasts, subscribe. You don't need

729
00:38:53,160 --> 00:38:55,840
Speaker 1: to get me anything for Christmas. All I want is

730
00:38:55,880 --> 00:38:58,400
Speaker 1: you to subscribe to the YouTube channel and the podcast

731
00:38:59,120 --> 00:39:01,400
Speaker 1: and you're done. You're done. After that, you only have

732
00:39:01,440 --> 00:39:04,200
Speaker 1: to wrap it. That's fine. Community. So thank you guys

733
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:06,880
Speaker 1: so much, because you've done that all year. I always

734
00:39:06,880 --> 00:39:08,480
Speaker 1: ask you, but I never thank you. Thank you for

735
00:39:08,560 --> 00:39:11,120
Speaker 1: doing that. Now, just get five of your friends to

736
00:39:11,120 --> 00:39:14,319
Speaker 1: do the same. Oh, here we go, Rose Bul. Let

737
00:39:14,320 --> 00:39:17,879
Speaker 1: me take one more ceremonial sip from dare I say

738
00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:25,600
Speaker 1: a rose colored liquid in the chalice? Oh? Story time,

739
00:39:26,239 --> 00:39:28,359
Speaker 1: it's gonna be a really quick story. I've never been

740
00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:30,400
Speaker 1: to the Rose Bowl game before. I've just been to

741
00:39:30,440 --> 00:39:34,120
Speaker 1: the Rose Bowl to watch games, but I've only been

742
00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:37,360
Speaker 1: in the stadium a few times. I've never been to

743
00:39:37,440 --> 00:39:40,560
Speaker 1: the Rose bul game. And we get to change that

744
00:39:41,200 --> 00:39:45,640
Speaker 1: in about fourteen or fifteen days, and I'm excited about it.

745
00:39:46,520 --> 00:39:50,520
Speaker 1: And it's the early game too. Okay, let's dive in.

746
00:39:50,600 --> 00:39:54,839
Speaker 1: Let's crank it up. The Rose Bowl New Year's Day

747
00:39:55,480 --> 00:40:00,520
Speaker 1: picturesque as you could possibly get. Michigan versus Alabama. Imagine

748
00:40:00,520 --> 00:40:03,719
Speaker 1: the blimp shot Colin Jesse. Imagine the Maze and Blue

749
00:40:03,800 --> 00:40:07,320
Speaker 1: juxtaposed to the Crimson, and we're just a little speck

750
00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:12,400
Speaker 1: there on the field somewhere. Awesome, unbelievable. You understand how

751
00:40:12,480 --> 00:40:15,320
Speaker 1: far away this game looked growing up in Harris County,

752
00:40:15,360 --> 00:40:17,839
Speaker 1: Georgia when I was a youth, and now we get

753
00:40:17,840 --> 00:40:21,600
Speaker 1: to be there. Amazing the Rose Bowls and Bamas fight song,

754
00:40:21,640 --> 00:40:24,880
Speaker 1: isn't I just realized that. Okay, so things have aligned

755
00:40:25,160 --> 00:40:27,920
Speaker 1: from this perspective. We will get no viewership on this

756
00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:31,000
Speaker 1: whatsoever in Tallahassee. And I understand it totally, totally, but

757
00:40:31,480 --> 00:40:34,879
Speaker 1: it should be a very very good game. I've looked

758
00:40:34,880 --> 00:40:37,440
Speaker 1: at this thing for about a week now. There is

759
00:40:37,520 --> 00:40:41,359
Speaker 1: no huge edge. Okay, in regular season week two, week three,

760
00:40:41,440 --> 00:40:43,439
Speaker 1: a lot of times you think, oh, we just haven't

761
00:40:43,480 --> 00:40:45,680
Speaker 1: learned enough about a team. There'll be a huge edge here,

762
00:40:45,840 --> 00:40:50,120
Speaker 1: huge edge there. There's no huge edge here. FanDuel line

763
00:40:50,160 --> 00:40:53,399
Speaker 1: is currently Michigan favored minus one and a half over

764
00:40:53,480 --> 00:40:56,840
Speaker 1: unders in the mid forties. So there's no huge edge.

765
00:40:57,239 --> 00:41:01,040
Speaker 1: There's no guarantee, there's no you know, promise that no

766
00:41:01,120 --> 00:41:04,759
Speaker 1: one will finish minus three turnovers and you'll have two

767
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:07,280
Speaker 1: special teams score. Of course that sort of thing could happen,

768
00:41:08,560 --> 00:41:10,960
Speaker 1: but that deviates from what the norm would be the

769
00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:13,000
Speaker 1: norm if we simulate this thing a one hundred times as

770
00:41:13,040 --> 00:41:16,080
Speaker 1: a whole bunch of really competitive games. So again, we're

771
00:41:16,080 --> 00:41:19,680
Speaker 1: looking for margins. We're looking for incremental edges that add

772
00:41:19,760 --> 00:41:23,360
Speaker 1: up to a win for someone. Now there's the prevailing theory.

773
00:41:23,440 --> 00:41:26,640
Speaker 1: The prevailing theory on Michigan from people outside of the

774
00:41:26,640 --> 00:41:30,600
Speaker 1: Big Ten is, yes, their defense is legit, but it's

775
00:41:30,600 --> 00:41:33,759
Speaker 1: a little bit inflated. They are top three defensively in

776
00:41:33,800 --> 00:41:37,239
Speaker 1: the country and points per game, yards per game, pass

777
00:41:37,320 --> 00:41:40,759
Speaker 1: yards per game, explosive plays allowed, and red zone and

778
00:41:40,840 --> 00:41:42,879
Speaker 1: I don't think I've ever talked to anyone this year

779
00:41:42,920 --> 00:41:45,000
Speaker 1: who doubts they're a legit unit. But there are a

780
00:41:45,000 --> 00:41:47,160
Speaker 1: lot of people who say, yeah. But I mean, I

781
00:41:47,239 --> 00:41:50,080
Speaker 1: wonder what they do if they faced multiple explosive offenses.

782
00:41:50,120 --> 00:41:52,719
Speaker 1: The most explosive quarterback they face, as yours, comm a

783
00:41:52,840 --> 00:41:55,360
Speaker 1: Cord who doesn't have the threat of mobility like Jalen

784
00:41:55,400 --> 00:41:58,680
Speaker 1: Milroe does. So Bama pops teams over the top constantly.

785
00:41:58,680 --> 00:42:01,120
Speaker 1: They do it against everyone. Ironically, the only team they

786
00:42:01,160 --> 00:42:03,120
Speaker 1: didn't do it against was Georgia, and they were still

787
00:42:03,120 --> 00:42:06,320
Speaker 1: efficient enough to win. But they've also got Jaln Milroe

788
00:42:06,320 --> 00:42:08,240
Speaker 1: with the ability to make you pay with his legs,

789
00:42:09,000 --> 00:42:10,600
Speaker 1: and they started to use that a whole lot more

790
00:42:10,600 --> 00:42:12,880
Speaker 1: around the midpoint of the season. And so it's one

791
00:42:12,920 --> 00:42:16,759
Speaker 1: of those great unanswerable questions until it against answered. Is

792
00:42:16,880 --> 00:42:20,800
Speaker 1: Michigan's stat profile just fully legitimate? And does it translate?

793
00:42:20,840 --> 00:42:22,719
Speaker 1: Does it meet the freeze point, as we like to say,

794
00:42:22,760 --> 00:42:26,480
Speaker 1: no matter what level of competition they're playing, or if

795
00:42:26,480 --> 00:42:29,520
Speaker 1: that level of competition ramps up, or conversely, if the

796
00:42:29,560 --> 00:42:33,920
Speaker 1: water pressure against the dam increases, might there be a

797
00:42:33,920 --> 00:42:39,279
Speaker 1: crack or two there that you didn't necessarily you weren't

798
00:42:39,280 --> 00:42:42,640
Speaker 1: fully aware of. Happens all the time in sports. You

799
00:42:42,760 --> 00:42:44,919
Speaker 1: just wonder about Michigan. I know a lot of people

800
00:42:45,000 --> 00:42:47,399
Speaker 1: outside of the Big Ten wondered about him. Well, good news,

801
00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:48,840
Speaker 1: they're going to play the game, so we get to

802
00:42:48,840 --> 00:42:54,640
Speaker 1: see it. JJ McCarthy. JJ McCarthy's probably the most interesting

803
00:42:54,640 --> 00:42:57,120
Speaker 1: player in this game. To me, Actually, I got a

804
00:42:57,160 --> 00:42:58,960
Speaker 1: lot of confidence in him. I got a lot of

805
00:42:58,960 --> 00:43:03,120
Speaker 1: faith in his ability. But I also don't think that

806
00:43:03,239 --> 00:43:05,680
Speaker 1: they needed to ask him to do a lot down

807
00:43:05,680 --> 00:43:09,760
Speaker 1: the stretch now, also, I don't think he's without flaw.

808
00:43:10,000 --> 00:43:12,879
Speaker 1: His game is not without flaw, and so he'll make

809
00:43:12,880 --> 00:43:15,120
Speaker 1: a mistake, he'll make an errant throw. But at the

810
00:43:15,160 --> 00:43:19,279
Speaker 1: same time, it's not a true freshman. And I've just

811
00:43:19,360 --> 00:43:22,319
Speaker 1: watched him his whole career and wondered when that big

812
00:43:22,360 --> 00:43:24,640
Speaker 1: moment comes, and make no mistake, this is it. The

813
00:43:24,680 --> 00:43:27,319
Speaker 1: Ohio State game was it, and this right here is

814
00:43:27,520 --> 00:43:30,560
Speaker 1: for sure it. And they have to ask him to

815
00:43:30,600 --> 00:43:33,919
Speaker 1: win a game because they're not necessarily doing a whole

816
00:43:33,920 --> 00:43:36,359
Speaker 1: lot else on the ground against Alabama. Is it going

817
00:43:36,400 --> 00:43:38,040
Speaker 1: to be there or his receiver is going to be

818
00:43:38,040 --> 00:43:40,960
Speaker 1: able to fight? There will be no easy catches here.

819
00:43:40,960 --> 00:43:43,320
Speaker 1: Are're gonna be a lot of contested balls, especially with

820
00:43:43,680 --> 00:43:47,160
Speaker 1: McKinstry and Terry and Arnold. And you've got a very

821
00:43:47,440 --> 00:43:52,200
Speaker 1: very good secondary, and for Alabama, a secondary where every

822
00:43:52,239 --> 00:43:54,560
Speaker 1: guy has settled into their role and a lot of

823
00:43:54,600 --> 00:43:56,640
Speaker 1: them know each other's roles. They've cross trained a lot

824
00:43:56,680 --> 00:44:02,080
Speaker 1: back there. So yards tough to come by, completions tough

825
00:44:02,120 --> 00:44:05,200
Speaker 1: to come by. That's why JJ McCarthy to me, is

826
00:44:05,360 --> 00:44:08,319
Speaker 1: maybe the most important player in this game. Because it's

827
00:44:08,360 --> 00:44:10,799
Speaker 1: not arm talent. You know, it's not how far can

828
00:44:10,880 --> 00:44:13,319
Speaker 1: you throw the ball. It's about seven or eight windows,

829
00:44:13,520 --> 00:44:15,440
Speaker 1: seven or eight needles. He's going to need a thread

830
00:44:15,719 --> 00:44:18,000
Speaker 1: over the course of a four quarter game, and he

831
00:44:18,040 --> 00:44:21,359
Speaker 1: cannot go six for eight or else they lose or

832
00:44:21,440 --> 00:44:26,280
Speaker 1: they run the risk of losing. Another thing that stood

833
00:44:26,280 --> 00:44:28,319
Speaker 1: out to me when I watched the SEC Championship game

834
00:44:28,360 --> 00:44:35,760
Speaker 1: with Alabama is they look Georgia fans. Notwithstanding, most folks

835
00:44:35,760 --> 00:44:38,120
Speaker 1: who watch the SEC Championship game will tell you Obama's

836
00:44:38,160 --> 00:44:42,880
Speaker 1: offensive line just dominated vast portions of the game, but

837
00:44:43,000 --> 00:44:46,640
Speaker 1: their yards per carry didn't reflect it. Their total yards

838
00:44:46,640 --> 00:44:49,359
Speaker 1: on the ground didn't reflect it, and it's almost like

839
00:44:49,400 --> 00:44:53,560
Speaker 1: you had two different things. See, normally the rushing statistics

840
00:44:54,040 --> 00:44:57,000
Speaker 1: fall closely in line with how your offensive line performed.

841
00:44:57,719 --> 00:45:02,520
Speaker 1: Sometimes there are outlier performances where your offensive line and

842
00:45:02,600 --> 00:45:05,200
Speaker 1: its performance all all of a sudden kind of detached

843
00:45:05,239 --> 00:45:09,080
Speaker 1: itself from what your rushing numbers were. And sometimes that's

844
00:45:09,160 --> 00:45:11,960
Speaker 1: just guys didn't hit a hole properly, or or someone

845
00:45:12,360 --> 00:45:14,520
Speaker 1: tripped and fell on what otherwise would have been a

846
00:45:14,560 --> 00:45:17,360
Speaker 1: fifty six yard gain, and it throws the entire stat

847
00:45:17,400 --> 00:45:21,960
Speaker 1: category into a blender. Jase McClellan was their starting running back,

848
00:45:22,000 --> 00:45:23,960
Speaker 1: and he was out for the SEC Championship game. Now

849
00:45:23,960 --> 00:45:26,480
Speaker 1: we assume that he'll be back for the College Football

850
00:45:26,480 --> 00:45:29,359
Speaker 1: playoff game. If they get the kind of performance they

851
00:45:29,360 --> 00:45:32,000
Speaker 1: did upfront on that offensive line, or anywhere close to

852
00:45:32,040 --> 00:45:35,759
Speaker 1: that against Michigan, I would assume they'll probably be able

853
00:45:35,760 --> 00:45:37,799
Speaker 1: to run the ball a little bit better than they

854
00:45:37,840 --> 00:45:40,520
Speaker 1: did against Georgia. Of course, you've got Jaylen Milroe as

855
00:45:40,560 --> 00:45:42,440
Speaker 1: being a big part of that too, But it'd be

856
00:45:42,440 --> 00:45:44,440
Speaker 1: interesting if they don't. It'd be interesting again if you

857
00:45:44,480 --> 00:45:46,960
Speaker 1: get to halftime and you think to yourself, Man, I

858
00:45:46,960 --> 00:45:48,960
Speaker 1: feel like Alabama's offensive line is kind of on the

859
00:45:48,960 --> 00:45:53,320
Speaker 1: line of scrimmage. Let's see two point eight yards per carry,

860
00:45:54,000 --> 00:45:58,319
Speaker 1: sixty three total yards. Huh, that makes no sense. Does

861
00:45:58,360 --> 00:46:02,240
Speaker 1: Michigan have the ability to force short fields against Alabama?

862
00:46:02,280 --> 00:46:05,920
Speaker 1: Because they've done it all year long. Michigan offensively is

863
00:46:06,000 --> 00:46:08,799
Speaker 1: not an overly special team rushing Jesse, I think you

864
00:46:08,800 --> 00:46:10,640
Speaker 1: told me they're in the sixties. I think that's what

865
00:46:10,640 --> 00:46:13,319
Speaker 1: our stat pack said. It's not a team that's lit

866
00:46:13,320 --> 00:46:16,000
Speaker 1: it up in any kind offensive stack category. They're a

867
00:46:16,040 --> 00:46:20,000
Speaker 1: football team that's been dominant and it is a complementary

868
00:46:20,080 --> 00:46:22,680
Speaker 1: team game and part of that is when your defense

869
00:46:22,719 --> 00:46:24,960
Speaker 1: has been as good as theirs, it gives an offense

870
00:46:25,000 --> 00:46:27,960
Speaker 1: really short fields to work with. That defense has been

871
00:46:28,040 --> 00:46:30,960
Speaker 1: key all season for him, and the two times I

872
00:46:31,000 --> 00:46:34,200
Speaker 1: watched him in person, Penn State defense own the game.

873
00:46:34,920 --> 00:46:38,080
Speaker 1: Ohio State forced to turn over early offense, turns it

874
00:46:38,120 --> 00:46:40,840
Speaker 1: into a short field score ends up being marginally the

875
00:46:40,840 --> 00:46:43,480
Speaker 1: difference in the game. Well, if they do that against Alabama,

876
00:46:43,520 --> 00:46:45,880
Speaker 1: that's how they beat Alabama. You can look at you

877
00:46:45,880 --> 00:46:48,440
Speaker 1: can look at these sheets all you want to and say, Ooh,

878
00:46:48,480 --> 00:46:51,600
Speaker 1: Alabama's got a little bit better athletes. I think Alabama's

879
00:46:51,600 --> 00:46:52,600
Speaker 1: going to be able to run the ball a little

880
00:46:52,600 --> 00:46:54,320
Speaker 1: bit better. I like Alabama a little bit better on

881
00:46:54,360 --> 00:46:57,960
Speaker 1: the perimeter. Well not if Michigan's average starting field position

882
00:46:58,040 --> 00:47:00,680
Speaker 1: is their forty five yard line, you don't, because that

883
00:47:00,719 --> 00:47:03,640
Speaker 1: means that defense has taken over and forced turnovers like

884
00:47:03,680 --> 00:47:07,520
Speaker 1: they've done all year. Now, conversely, that'd be my biggest

885
00:47:07,520 --> 00:47:10,399
Speaker 1: fear if I'm Bama. If I'm Michigan, my biggest fear

886
00:47:10,520 --> 00:47:13,719
Speaker 1: is what if they get pressure on my quarterback, which

887
00:47:13,800 --> 00:47:16,640
Speaker 1: I think they will, but we can't run the ball

888
00:47:16,640 --> 00:47:21,399
Speaker 1: effectively because that is a legitimate threat here Bama at

889
00:47:21,400 --> 00:47:24,200
Speaker 1: second half of the season has not only had pretty

890
00:47:24,239 --> 00:47:27,879
Speaker 1: good success against the run, they've had success with four

891
00:47:28,160 --> 00:47:30,600
Speaker 1: against the run. I mean, they've been dropping two safeties

892
00:47:30,640 --> 00:47:32,560
Speaker 1: back against a lot of these teams. Now, they used

893
00:47:32,560 --> 00:47:34,040
Speaker 1: to be able to play that way all the time,

894
00:47:34,360 --> 00:47:36,919
Speaker 1: and lately it hadn't been like that. But they've gotten

895
00:47:36,960 --> 00:47:40,160
Speaker 1: themselves improved enough at the linebacker position, and they're good

896
00:47:40,200 --> 00:47:43,400
Speaker 1: enough on the interior defensively where they can do that again.

897
00:47:44,000 --> 00:47:47,560
Speaker 1: And honestly, a too high look is not even necessarily

898
00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:50,480
Speaker 1: what you need against Michigan. But if they can afford

899
00:47:50,560 --> 00:47:53,560
Speaker 1: themselves the opportunity to do it, then all of a sudden,

900
00:47:53,719 --> 00:47:56,880
Speaker 1: that turnover concern shifts over towards the Michigan offensive side,

901
00:47:57,080 --> 00:47:58,560
Speaker 1: because you're not going to be able to stretch the

902
00:47:58,560 --> 00:48:00,840
Speaker 1: field against them, and if you score, you're gonna have

903
00:48:00,880 --> 00:48:02,760
Speaker 1: to do it in eight, nine, ten, to eleven play drives.

904
00:48:02,800 --> 00:48:04,800
Speaker 1: And it's just I don't think it's something that Michigan

905
00:48:04,880 --> 00:48:07,479
Speaker 1: is well suited to do. So one of two things

906
00:48:07,520 --> 00:48:10,080
Speaker 1: needs to happen. Either Michigan's gonna be able to need

907
00:48:10,120 --> 00:48:12,400
Speaker 1: to run the ball a whole lot better than on

908
00:48:12,480 --> 00:48:14,880
Speaker 1: average we've seen teams do it against Bama better than

909
00:48:14,920 --> 00:48:18,919
Speaker 1: Georgia did it against Alabama. Or Michigan defensively is gonna

910
00:48:18,920 --> 00:48:20,480
Speaker 1: have to set that team up with short field. It's

911
00:48:20,480 --> 00:48:23,680
Speaker 1: because those sustained drives I don't think are in Michigan's wheelhouse. Here,

912
00:48:23,920 --> 00:48:27,080
Speaker 1: Let's take a look at what the model thinks right now.

913
00:48:27,320 --> 00:48:30,000
Speaker 1: FanDuel has Michigan minus one and a half. We are

914
00:48:30,040 --> 00:48:33,200
Speaker 1: the total opposite. Our model has Bama minus one and

915
00:48:33,200 --> 00:48:35,879
Speaker 1: a half. So we think the wrong team is favored here.

916
00:48:36,719 --> 00:48:41,160
Speaker 1: And truthfully, I had a good feeling where I was

917
00:48:41,200 --> 00:48:45,160
Speaker 1: going on this at the SEC Championship game. I felt

918
00:48:45,200 --> 00:48:47,680
Speaker 1: like either one of those teams, if given three weeks

919
00:48:47,719 --> 00:48:50,080
Speaker 1: to get healthy, we're going to be the team that

920
00:48:50,120 --> 00:48:53,719
Speaker 1: I picked in this matchup. I assumed that we would

921
00:48:53,760 --> 00:48:57,360
Speaker 1: probably see this matchup at some point. I felt like

922
00:48:57,400 --> 00:48:59,640
Speaker 1: both of them matched up going against Michigan. Feel like

923
00:48:59,680 --> 00:49:02,480
Speaker 1: Bama matches up gett against them. So I've painted you

924
00:49:02,520 --> 00:49:05,200
Speaker 1: the path for a Michigan win wouldn't be shocking, but

925
00:49:05,280 --> 00:49:08,120
Speaker 1: the way I'm going in the game, statistically, the more

926
00:49:08,280 --> 00:49:11,960
Speaker 1: likely path to me is Alabama wins this, and of

927
00:49:12,000 --> 00:49:16,400
Speaker 1: course Alabama covers in the process. No huge edges, just

928
00:49:16,440 --> 00:49:19,120
Speaker 1: think they're that much better in the end, and so

929
00:49:20,040 --> 00:49:22,000
Speaker 1: that sets up Bama versus filling the blank for the

930
00:49:22,040 --> 00:49:26,160
Speaker 1: National Championship game. My pick tonight has been Texas. So

931
00:49:26,239 --> 00:49:29,080
Speaker 1: would we see Abama Texas free match perhaps, or maybe

932
00:49:29,120 --> 00:49:33,000
Speaker 1: we see Michigan Washington and I go over to That's

933
00:49:33,000 --> 00:49:36,600
Speaker 1: why we play the games, but I'm really really really

934
00:49:36,920 --> 00:49:40,040
Speaker 1: looking forward to that matchup. Hey, consider this before we

935
00:49:40,120 --> 00:49:42,319
Speaker 1: just cut this off. Well, the show's not done, but

936
00:49:42,360 --> 00:49:49,279
Speaker 1: the prediction almost is. Think about how weird this dynamic is.

937
00:49:50,160 --> 00:49:52,560
Speaker 1: Bama goes to the playoffs all the time. When's the

938
00:49:52,640 --> 00:49:55,319
Speaker 1: last time you saw them in a playoff game? And

939
00:49:55,400 --> 00:49:59,920
Speaker 1: they weren't the team the pressures on. There's an immense

940
00:50:00,040 --> 00:50:02,279
Speaker 1: pressure on Michigan and Jim Harbaugh in this game, Coase,

941
00:50:02,280 --> 00:50:04,759
Speaker 1: Harball's the one who hasn't gotten it done. Harball's the

942
00:50:04,800 --> 00:50:08,080
Speaker 1: one who hasn't gotten it done in bowl games. Harball's

943
00:50:08,080 --> 00:50:10,440
Speaker 1: the one who hadn't gotten it done in playoff games.

944
00:50:11,280 --> 00:50:13,400
Speaker 1: And this year is what it was all about. It

945
00:50:13,520 --> 00:50:17,120
Speaker 1: wasn't about the regular season. And look, internally, they had

946
00:50:17,120 --> 00:50:18,919
Speaker 1: a ton of confidence they were going to get past

947
00:50:18,960 --> 00:50:22,160
Speaker 1: Ohio State again. And they did. And as we knew

948
00:50:22,200 --> 00:50:24,560
Speaker 1: this year, the winner of that game was going to

949
00:50:24,560 --> 00:50:28,480
Speaker 1: be the Big Ten champion, and they were get to

950
00:50:28,520 --> 00:50:31,680
Speaker 1: the playoffs and win a playoff game at least get

951
00:50:31,719 --> 00:50:34,920
Speaker 1: to the national championship game, or the seasons of failure.

952
00:50:35,640 --> 00:50:38,600
Speaker 1: Every Michigan person knows that not a failure in the

953
00:50:38,600 --> 00:50:41,760
Speaker 1: classical sense of the word, but you have fallen short

954
00:50:41,920 --> 00:50:43,839
Speaker 1: of your preseason goals if you don't make it. Now,

955
00:50:44,080 --> 00:50:46,960
Speaker 1: take that and compare it to where Bama was in

956
00:50:47,000 --> 00:50:49,560
Speaker 1: Week two, where half their own fan base thought they

957
00:50:49,600 --> 00:50:51,600
Speaker 1: were going to lose three or four games. And here's

958
00:50:51,640 --> 00:50:55,719
Speaker 1: Nick Saban just dragging his team, kicking and screaming to

959
00:50:55,800 --> 00:50:59,160
Speaker 1: the SEC championship game and they win it, and they're

960
00:50:59,200 --> 00:51:01,319
Speaker 1: in the playoff and they're a one and a half

961
00:51:01,360 --> 00:51:05,600
Speaker 1: point dog. I think more pressures on Michigan. And I'm frankly,

962
00:51:05,640 --> 00:51:07,800
Speaker 1: I'm not sure I've ever said that about an Alabama

963
00:51:07,800 --> 00:51:11,080
Speaker 1: playoff game. So just an interesting little dynamic to keep

964
00:51:11,080 --> 00:51:12,680
Speaker 1: an eye on there. I don't know that that stuff

965
00:51:12,719 --> 00:51:15,560
Speaker 1: means a whole lot. Sometimes maybe it does mean something,

966
00:51:15,560 --> 00:51:18,440
Speaker 1: but just something to keep an eye on. We are

967
00:51:18,640 --> 00:51:23,160
Speaker 1: right now at seven point fifty one pm Central Time

968
00:51:23,280 --> 00:51:27,000
Speaker 1: on Sunday night, and the reason I say that is

969
00:51:27,080 --> 00:51:31,200
Speaker 1: because I'm gonna say some stuff here and it could

970
00:51:31,280 --> 00:51:35,000
Speaker 1: change by the stroke of midnight. So just take this

971
00:51:35,080 --> 00:51:39,080
Speaker 1: for what it is right now. National Signing Day is

972
00:51:39,120 --> 00:51:42,800
Speaker 1: this Wednesday, and National Signing Day has become really interesting.

973
00:51:42,960 --> 00:51:45,000
Speaker 1: Used to be in February and it still is. But

974
00:51:45,040 --> 00:51:47,239
Speaker 1: the early signing day is when a bulk of the

975
00:51:47,280 --> 00:51:49,640
Speaker 1: signings happen. To give you an idea of the landscape.

976
00:51:49,680 --> 00:51:53,920
Speaker 1: Right now, as of tonight Sunday night, ninety five percent

977
00:51:54,200 --> 00:51:58,400
Speaker 1: of the top two four seven is committed verbally. So

978
00:51:58,560 --> 00:52:02,440
Speaker 1: National Signing Day has not so much been about commitments.

979
00:52:02,719 --> 00:52:05,759
Speaker 1: Now it's about Flipmass Mary, Flipmas, as they say on

980
00:52:05,800 --> 00:52:09,240
Speaker 1: the streets, the recruiting streets. Who's gonna flip their commitment

981
00:52:09,440 --> 00:52:13,120
Speaker 1: at the eleventh hour. Dylan Riola, number two player overall

982
00:52:13,160 --> 00:52:16,319
Speaker 1: in the country, top quarterback in the country. Everybody's got

983
00:52:16,360 --> 00:52:18,719
Speaker 1: their eyes on him. He's been committed to Georgia for

984
00:52:18,760 --> 00:52:23,920
Speaker 1: a while. The late Crystal Ball momentum is with Nebraska,

985
00:52:25,320 --> 00:52:28,959
Speaker 1: We're nothing. It hasn't happened yet. Steve Wolfong put out

986
00:52:29,440 --> 00:52:34,240
Speaker 1: an update about three hours ago that said, Hey, I

987
00:52:34,239 --> 00:52:38,239
Speaker 1: I'm speaking as Wolffong. I still think he's going to Nebraska,

988
00:52:38,280 --> 00:52:41,840
Speaker 1: but he's in contact with the Georgia staff, so this

989
00:52:42,000 --> 00:52:43,799
Speaker 1: is not over. One way or another. It's not over,

990
00:52:43,840 --> 00:52:46,440
Speaker 1: and he's still committed to Georgia as of tonight. I

991
00:52:47,160 --> 00:52:51,520
Speaker 1: am based on what I'm hearing, I don't think Auburn's

992
00:52:51,560 --> 00:52:54,880
Speaker 1: gonna be quiet on National Signing Day at all. I

993
00:52:54,920 --> 00:52:57,279
Speaker 1: think that one way or another, they're about to make

994
00:52:57,320 --> 00:53:01,520
Speaker 1: some noise. Not with Riola necessarily. I'm just saying Auburn

995
00:53:01,520 --> 00:53:03,680
Speaker 1: has way too many needs and there's way too much

996
00:53:03,719 --> 00:53:06,960
Speaker 1: desperation down there, and they're way too good at recruiting

997
00:53:06,960 --> 00:53:09,560
Speaker 1: staff for them to just kind of be quiet and

998
00:53:09,600 --> 00:53:12,600
Speaker 1: sit idly by on signing day. Texas will not be

999
00:53:12,719 --> 00:53:16,520
Speaker 1: quiet on National signing Day. And that's a program that

1000
00:53:16,600 --> 00:53:20,680
Speaker 1: really is selling itself at this point. Nil top notch facilities,

1001
00:53:20,719 --> 00:53:23,120
Speaker 1: top notch momentum, everything they've got. They're in a playoff

1002
00:53:23,200 --> 00:53:26,520
Speaker 1: right now, so headed to the SEC as well. Those

1003
00:53:26,520 --> 00:53:29,279
Speaker 1: are two programs I'll have my eye on. You know,

1004
00:53:29,360 --> 00:53:32,440
Speaker 1: I'm watching the state of Florida, Okay, you know, I

1005
00:53:32,560 --> 00:53:35,360
Speaker 1: believe that is the key to competitive balance in college football,

1006
00:53:35,680 --> 00:53:39,359
Speaker 1: the in state schools recruiting well. Right now, Florida State

1007
00:53:39,440 --> 00:53:45,040
Speaker 1: is fourth, Florida is fifth, and Miami is ninth. Everybody's

1008
00:53:45,040 --> 00:53:47,480
Speaker 1: watching kJ Bolden at Florida State. He's the number one

1009
00:53:47,480 --> 00:53:50,320
Speaker 1: safety in the country out of Buford. Yet another Buford

1010
00:53:50,320 --> 00:53:53,920
Speaker 1: Wolf leaving the State of Georgia. He's been committed to FSU.

1011
00:53:54,600 --> 00:53:57,960
Speaker 1: Folks are still let's see now he's said all the

1012
00:53:58,040 --> 00:54:02,920
Speaker 1: right things. As recently as today, Auburn's lurking, Miami's lurking.

1013
00:54:03,400 --> 00:54:06,440
Speaker 1: So until you see the ink not only on the paper,

1014
00:54:06,480 --> 00:54:10,319
Speaker 1: but the ink is dry on the paper, just keep

1015
00:54:10,360 --> 00:54:12,160
Speaker 1: one eye open. I don't need to tell Florida State

1016
00:54:12,200 --> 00:54:15,000
Speaker 1: fans that they've been through you know, they've been through

1017
00:54:15,000 --> 00:54:17,799
Speaker 1: Travis Hunter in recent history, so they know they don't

1018
00:54:17,800 --> 00:54:20,000
Speaker 1: take any of this stuff for granted. Florida's class at

1019
00:54:20,040 --> 00:54:22,879
Speaker 1: number five feels very shaky, and that's the best way

1020
00:54:22,920 --> 00:54:25,560
Speaker 1: I can describe it. Right now, you see my fingers crossed.

1021
00:54:25,760 --> 00:54:28,239
Speaker 1: I'm pulling for you, guys, not against you, but things

1022
00:54:28,239 --> 00:54:32,200
Speaker 1: seem shaky right now. DJ Lagway, the quarterback, seems like

1023
00:54:32,239 --> 00:54:35,960
Speaker 1: he's pretty solidly in the fold. There's some other names

1024
00:54:36,000 --> 00:54:39,000
Speaker 1: I don't feel as confident about. Let's see, though, Let's see,

1025
00:54:39,080 --> 00:54:41,839
Speaker 1: you know, how quickly Billy Napier can tweet out that

1026
00:54:41,920 --> 00:54:44,720
Speaker 1: sunglasses smiley emoji and things can change for the better.

1027
00:54:45,160 --> 00:54:48,400
Speaker 1: I spoken into existence the other day. I am speaking

1028
00:54:48,400 --> 00:54:52,880
Speaker 1: it into existence again Napier's smiley face emoji. Maybe several

1029
00:54:53,080 --> 00:54:56,800
Speaker 1: between non National Signing Day. It's making it happen. Miami's

1030
00:54:56,800 --> 00:55:00,680
Speaker 1: at number nine right now. I would expect them to rise.

1031
00:55:01,680 --> 00:55:05,440
Speaker 1: Miami is hunting right now. As National Signing Day approaches,

1032
00:55:05,840 --> 00:55:09,279
Speaker 1: they will not be quiet the next seventy two to

1033
00:55:09,440 --> 00:55:11,360
Speaker 1: ninety six hours. How far how are we going to go?

1034
00:55:11,360 --> 00:55:13,680
Speaker 1: It's like an extended forecast. Are going to be very,

1035
00:55:13,760 --> 00:55:17,520
Speaker 1: very active, very volatile, and Miami is a team that

1036
00:55:17,600 --> 00:55:20,680
Speaker 1: kind of scares everyone cause the quieter they are, the

1037
00:55:20,760 --> 00:55:22,480
Speaker 1: more you think it may be your back that they're

1038
00:55:22,480 --> 00:55:26,360
Speaker 1: sneaking up behind. So one way or another, Miami will

1039
00:55:26,400 --> 00:55:28,640
Speaker 1: be a team that we talk about a lot on

1040
00:55:28,760 --> 00:55:31,680
Speaker 1: National Signing Day. I just don't know where the attack's

1041
00:55:31,680 --> 00:55:34,920
Speaker 1: gonna come quite yet. I would like to draw your

1042
00:55:34,960 --> 00:55:40,200
Speaker 1: attention to a little stat that we uncovered the SEC

1043
00:55:40,239 --> 00:55:43,839
Speaker 1: and the Big ten, the power too, as some are

1044
00:55:43,880 --> 00:55:47,799
Speaker 1: calling them in the future. It's an unpopular term, but

1045
00:55:47,880 --> 00:55:50,200
Speaker 1: it's just reality. You don't have to like it. I

1046
00:55:50,200 --> 00:55:53,799
Speaker 1: don't have to like it, but if you believe that

1047
00:55:53,960 --> 00:55:57,480
Speaker 1: talent acquisition is the name of the game, then you

1048
00:55:57,520 --> 00:56:00,920
Speaker 1: need to understand something. As we sit here tonight, I'm

1049
00:56:00,960 --> 00:56:03,560
Speaker 1: looking at the twenty four to seven sports team recruiting rankings.

1050
00:56:04,200 --> 00:56:07,160
Speaker 1: It is a bleak, bleak picture if you are not

1051
00:56:07,239 --> 00:56:10,799
Speaker 1: a Big two fan. Sixteen of the top twenty classes

1052
00:56:11,160 --> 00:56:14,680
Speaker 1: are Big ten or SEC programs, and I think it

1053
00:56:14,719 --> 00:56:17,839
Speaker 1: was like nineteen of the top twenty five. That's not

1054
00:56:17,920 --> 00:56:20,480
Speaker 1: going to change. If anything, more of the oxygen will

1055
00:56:20,520 --> 00:56:23,360
Speaker 1: be taken up by those two. The Big twelve's top

1056
00:56:23,400 --> 00:56:26,480
Speaker 1: class right now is Texas Tech at number twenty one.

1057
00:56:27,360 --> 00:56:30,480
Speaker 1: So like the Big Ten in the SEC have sixteen

1058
00:56:30,880 --> 00:56:33,120
Speaker 1: in the top twenty, a conference like the Big twelve

1059
00:56:33,120 --> 00:56:37,080
Speaker 1: doesn't have one. And it's not to dunk on these teams.

1060
00:56:37,120 --> 00:56:38,880
Speaker 1: Like I think Joey Maguire and his team, they had

1061
00:56:38,920 --> 00:56:41,000
Speaker 1: a really good Bowl game performance. They have a lot

1062
00:56:41,040 --> 00:56:45,239
Speaker 1: of momentum, Like it's an upward trending program. That's a

1063
00:56:45,280 --> 00:56:48,680
Speaker 1: really nice program. They're putting together a really nice class.

1064
00:56:49,160 --> 00:56:50,840
Speaker 1: I'm trying to paint you the picture and give you

1065
00:56:50,840 --> 00:56:55,200
Speaker 1: an idea of how wide that gap is between what

1066
00:56:55,239 --> 00:56:59,520
Speaker 1: we consider pretty good, nice and what like sixteen of

1067
00:56:59,560 --> 00:57:03,440
Speaker 1: the top twenty are doing and they're all in two conferences.

1068
00:57:04,719 --> 00:57:07,000
Speaker 1: Chip Kelly didn't want it this way, but it is

1069
00:57:07,040 --> 00:57:09,680
Speaker 1: this way. You know what you can do right now?

1070
00:57:10,160 --> 00:57:12,760
Speaker 1: You can go to FanDuel because they are the betting

1071
00:57:12,800 --> 00:57:15,840
Speaker 1: partner of this show, exclusive betting partner of this show

1072
00:57:15,920 --> 00:57:19,240
Speaker 1: every odds update that we provide as courtesy of FanDuel.

1073
00:57:19,440 --> 00:57:21,160
Speaker 1: But you know what I did. I hit him up

1074
00:57:21,160 --> 00:57:25,160
Speaker 1: over the weekend via email and I said, hey, how

1075
00:57:25,200 --> 00:57:28,280
Speaker 1: about some hypotheticals? They said, got you covered, and we

1076
00:57:28,440 --> 00:57:34,479
Speaker 1: have on FanDuel right now betable hypotheticals BHS, as Memo

1077
00:57:34,520 --> 00:57:37,920
Speaker 1: would call them. And what that means is you don't

1078
00:57:37,960 --> 00:57:41,520
Speaker 1: have to wait for the playoffs to happen. You can

1079
00:57:41,520 --> 00:57:44,640
Speaker 1: go and bet any combination. You can bet any matchup,

1080
00:57:44,960 --> 00:57:49,600
Speaker 1: hypothetical matchup that the National Championship game could be right now.

1081
00:57:50,320 --> 00:57:53,240
Speaker 1: I posted it on Twitter Saturday. I think, so if

1082
00:57:53,280 --> 00:57:56,320
Speaker 1: you think it's going to be Texas versus Alabama, you

1083
00:57:56,360 --> 00:57:57,880
Speaker 1: can go bet it. I can tell you what the

1084
00:57:57,880 --> 00:57:59,000
Speaker 1: line is. You want me to tell you what the

1085
00:57:59,000 --> 00:58:02,760
Speaker 1: line is? Now? According to FanDuel, Bama would be a

1086
00:58:02,760 --> 00:58:06,000
Speaker 1: two and a half point favorite against Texas. How can

1087
00:58:06,040 --> 00:58:08,080
Speaker 1: that be? By the way, didn't Texas beat them by

1088
00:58:08,160 --> 00:58:12,960
Speaker 1: double digits in Tuscaloosa. Well, you know how the odds

1089
00:58:12,960 --> 00:58:16,280
Speaker 1: making world differs from the rankings world. We've gone over

1090
00:58:16,320 --> 00:58:19,320
Speaker 1: that a lot. Maybe maybe you think it's gonna be

1091
00:58:19,760 --> 00:58:23,200
Speaker 1: Michigan versus Washington, whatever combination you think it's gonna be.

1092
00:58:23,640 --> 00:58:26,040
Speaker 1: They've got it right now at FanDuel, so you can

1093
00:58:26,080 --> 00:58:27,800
Speaker 1: go check it out. I think Michigan was about a

1094
00:58:27,840 --> 00:58:32,120
Speaker 1: touchdown favorite against Washington, Bama minus six against Washington. I

1095
00:58:32,240 --> 00:58:34,320
Speaker 1: was Michigan by about a field goal a little over

1096
00:58:34,400 --> 00:58:37,520
Speaker 1: field goal against Texas. They're all there, so you can

1097
00:58:37,560 --> 00:58:39,240
Speaker 1: go bet them. Of course, if the game doesn't happen,

1098
00:58:39,280 --> 00:58:41,400
Speaker 1: you just get your money refunded. But if the game

1099
00:58:41,440 --> 00:58:44,760
Speaker 1: does happen, you got that bet locked in already. And

1100
00:58:45,640 --> 00:58:48,680
Speaker 1: here's where the strategy comes in. So let's say you

1101
00:58:48,800 --> 00:58:52,800
Speaker 1: think Texas is going to roll over Washington and you

1102
00:58:52,840 --> 00:58:57,160
Speaker 1: think Bama's gonna squeak by Michigan. You go bet Texas

1103
00:58:57,200 --> 00:58:59,720
Speaker 1: plus two and a half right now. And maybe you're thinking,

1104
00:59:00,040 --> 00:59:02,480
Speaker 1: if I get the results I believe I'm gonna get,

1105
00:59:02,680 --> 00:59:06,000
Speaker 1: maybe Texas is a pickham, maybe even a one point favorite,

1106
00:59:06,040 --> 00:59:07,720
Speaker 1: and I baked myself in two and a half or

1107
00:59:07,760 --> 00:59:10,240
Speaker 1: three points of value. There you play the game, however

1108
00:59:10,280 --> 00:59:12,400
Speaker 1: you want to play at friends, I'm just telling you

1109
00:59:12,440 --> 00:59:15,000
Speaker 1: go to FanDuel to do it. Must be twenty one

1110
00:59:15,280 --> 00:59:18,080
Speaker 1: or over and present in select states. FanDuel is offering

1111
00:59:18,160 --> 00:59:21,120
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1115
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Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or visitfanduel dot com backslash RG in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, Michigan,

1116
00:59:39,600 --> 00:59:44,400
Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Tennessee, and Virginia. Call one

1117
00:59:44,440 --> 00:59:47,840
Speaker 1: eight hundred, next step or text next step to five

1118
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Speaker 1: three three four to two in Arizona one eight eight

1119
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1120
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Speaker 1: CCPG dot org backslash chat in Connecticut one eight hundred

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Speaker 1: and nine with it in India one eight hundred five

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Speaker 1: two two forty seven hundred, or visit ks gambling heelp

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Speaker 1: dot com in Kansas one eight seven seven seven seven

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Speaker 1: oh stop in Louisiana. Visit MD Gamblinghelp dot org in Maryland,

1125
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Speaker 1: Visit one eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia.

1126
01:00:17,560 --> 01:00:20,280
Speaker 1: Or call one eight hundred five two two forty seven

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01:00:20,360 --> 01:00:24,760
Speaker 1: hundred in Wyoming. Hope is here. Visit gambling Heelpline MA

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Speaker 1: dot org or call eight hundred three two seven fifty

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Speaker 1: fifty for twenty four seven support in Massachusetts. Or call

1130
01:00:31,600 --> 01:00:34,960
Speaker 1: one eight seven seven eight hope dash n why or

1131
01:00:35,040 --> 01:00:38,480
Speaker 1: text hope in why in New York, AH. One of

1132
01:00:38,480 --> 01:00:43,320
Speaker 1: my favorite times of the year, Christmas. No bold predictions revisited.

1133
01:00:43,640 --> 01:00:47,120
Speaker 1: Not my bold predictions, Your bold predictions. I asked you

1134
01:00:47,160 --> 01:00:51,040
Speaker 1: in August, deliver them to me. Children. What is so

1135
01:00:51,200 --> 01:00:53,680
Speaker 1: bold but something you believe in enough that you would

1136
01:00:53,720 --> 01:00:55,960
Speaker 1: bet your own money on it. Here we go, Paper

1137
01:00:56,000 --> 01:00:59,000
Speaker 1: Pop got four big ones here. Oh the first one

1138
01:00:59,080 --> 01:01:01,880
Speaker 1: hurts not me, but it should hurt someone out there.

1139
01:01:03,200 --> 01:01:06,760
Speaker 1: Serb bart Or as he goes by on the socials

1140
01:01:06,840 --> 01:01:11,080
Speaker 1: at Playboy trojan Boy with an Eye, USC will go

1141
01:01:11,240 --> 01:01:18,200
Speaker 1: undefeated with a top thirty defense from Northridge, California. Another

1142
01:01:19,280 --> 01:01:23,160
Speaker 1: in a long line of failed predictions for the USC

1143
01:01:23,360 --> 01:01:27,000
Speaker 1: defense this year, so USC was not undefeated, and if

1144
01:01:27,000 --> 01:01:30,160
Speaker 1: you haven't watched the season, spoiler alert, USC went seven

1145
01:01:30,200 --> 01:01:34,600
Speaker 1: and five. Our buddy predicted USC to be top thirty. Defensively,

1146
01:01:35,680 --> 01:01:38,160
Speaker 1: USC had the one hundred and twenty third ranked defense

1147
01:01:38,200 --> 01:01:40,920
Speaker 1: in the country. Alex Grinch got fired mid season as

1148
01:01:40,920 --> 01:01:46,440
Speaker 1: the coordinator. Next up. This one was a mixed bag,

1149
01:01:47,040 --> 01:01:50,320
Speaker 1: but ultimately I kind of feel like this one was right.

1150
01:01:50,360 --> 01:01:54,720
Speaker 1: We got to go to college station Texas. Adam from Radford, Virginia.

1151
01:01:54,840 --> 01:01:57,120
Speaker 1: He checked in and he said, Texas A and M

1152
01:01:57,200 --> 01:02:00,720
Speaker 1: will win under six games and Jimbo will get fired

1153
01:02:00,800 --> 01:02:04,280
Speaker 1: at the end of the season. Now, they went seven

1154
01:02:04,320 --> 01:02:07,920
Speaker 1: and five, but Jimbo got the acts, so he was

1155
01:02:08,400 --> 01:02:13,360
Speaker 1: kind of right, I think, and they I don't know.

1156
01:02:13,440 --> 01:02:17,360
Speaker 1: I mean, they beat Abilene Christian, they beat Mississippi State,

1157
01:02:17,880 --> 01:02:20,960
Speaker 1: the South Carolina win on the back half of the season,

1158
01:02:21,680 --> 01:02:24,160
Speaker 1: but by and large, Texas A and M season was

1159
01:02:24,200 --> 01:02:26,560
Speaker 1: a failure. Six wins or seven wins, it didn't really

1160
01:02:26,560 --> 01:02:29,240
Speaker 1: matter because Jimbo was probably gonna need eight or more,

1161
01:02:29,920 --> 01:02:32,680
Speaker 1: maybe nine or more hoops amongst us knows, to keep

1162
01:02:32,680 --> 01:02:35,760
Speaker 1: his job. So Jimbo's out. I'm gonna call this prediction

1163
01:02:35,840 --> 01:02:38,360
Speaker 1: a hit, Jesse, I don't know. I'm gonna call it

1164
01:02:38,480 --> 01:02:43,479
Speaker 1: a win. Next up. This one was so close, Drew,

1165
01:02:44,320 --> 01:02:47,000
Speaker 1: one of our many viewers up in Anchorage, Alaska. Drew,

1166
01:02:47,040 --> 01:02:50,080
Speaker 1: we appreciate you being tuned in on what undoubtedly is

1167
01:02:50,080 --> 01:02:52,680
Speaker 1: a chilly night. I would imagine, he said, each Power

1168
01:02:52,760 --> 01:02:56,480
Speaker 1: five conference will have a new team win their conference

1169
01:02:56,520 --> 01:02:59,360
Speaker 1: that didn't win it last year. He was so close.

1170
01:03:00,120 --> 01:03:03,160
Speaker 1: This is like betting a parlay. You went four for five,

1171
01:03:03,400 --> 01:03:06,200
Speaker 1: which makes you a loser. Drew, You're not a loser,

1172
01:03:06,240 --> 01:03:09,680
Speaker 1: my friend. The prediction was a loser. Michigan screwed it

1173
01:03:09,760 --> 01:03:15,160
Speaker 1: up for everyone. Clemson new champion in the ACC, Kansas

1174
01:03:15,200 --> 01:03:18,600
Speaker 1: State new champion. Wait a second, I'm looking at last season.

1175
01:03:18,680 --> 01:03:21,760
Speaker 1: Texas was the new champion, Florida State was the new champion,

1176
01:03:22,080 --> 01:03:25,040
Speaker 1: Washington was a new champion, Bama a new champion. But

1177
01:03:25,200 --> 01:03:30,120
Speaker 1: that pesky Michigan Wolverine squad who will face Alabama in

1178
01:03:30,160 --> 01:03:33,720
Speaker 1: the Rose Bowl. Michigan got it done again. Not a

1179
01:03:33,880 --> 01:03:38,200
Speaker 1: loss to their name this year, and I'm told not

1180
01:03:38,280 --> 01:03:40,160
Speaker 1: many players even broke a sweat in the Big Ten

1181
01:03:40,280 --> 01:03:43,439
Speaker 1: championship game, So good for them. There's the undertaker handing

1182
01:03:43,480 --> 01:03:46,560
Speaker 1: the big twelve championship belt the quinn Ewers. I mean,

1183
01:03:46,600 --> 01:03:49,160
Speaker 1: one of the biggest wins for Takers is WrestleMania twenty

1184
01:03:49,160 --> 01:03:53,680
Speaker 1: five against my guy Shawn Michaels. This was so close,

1185
01:03:53,960 --> 01:03:58,000
Speaker 1: so close, But this is bold predictions, and it was

1186
01:03:58,040 --> 01:04:01,800
Speaker 1: bold and not quite there, but still very admirable. Now,

1187
01:04:02,240 --> 01:04:03,760
Speaker 1: this is the one that I wanted to get to.

1188
01:04:05,120 --> 01:04:08,920
Speaker 1: At Georgia Sports, fans said Texas will beat Bama by

1189
01:04:09,000 --> 01:04:15,480
Speaker 1: double digits, fueled by their elite offense. It happened. Texas

1190
01:04:15,480 --> 01:04:19,880
Speaker 1: went into Tuscaloosa and beat Alabama by double digits. And

1191
01:04:20,000 --> 01:04:24,800
Speaker 1: now we have fan duel with the audacity to install

1192
01:04:24,880 --> 01:04:27,440
Speaker 1: Alabama as a hypothetical two and a half point favorite

1193
01:04:27,440 --> 01:04:30,400
Speaker 1: against Texas if they played again. I was at this game, friends,

1194
01:04:30,640 --> 01:04:34,200
Speaker 1: This was no fluke. Now minus two. Turnovers had a

1195
01:04:34,240 --> 01:04:36,040
Speaker 1: lot to do with it. But turnovers are a part

1196
01:04:36,080 --> 01:04:39,040
Speaker 1: of the game every bit as much as do on

1197
01:04:39,120 --> 01:04:42,760
Speaker 1: the grass. And it was a different Bama team. I'll

1198
01:04:42,800 --> 01:04:45,720
Speaker 1: grant you that I would suggest maybe Texas is a

1199
01:04:45,760 --> 01:04:48,919
Speaker 1: better team now than they were then. But that night

1200
01:04:50,040 --> 01:04:53,080
Speaker 1: burned into my mind a thing that I've only seen

1201
01:04:53,160 --> 01:04:55,800
Speaker 1: that night. I've told you about this already, and that

1202
01:04:55,960 --> 01:05:00,000
Speaker 1: is the home fans at Bryant Denny Stadium filing out

1203
01:05:00,000 --> 01:05:03,640
Speaker 1: out midway through the fourth quarter in a game they

1204
01:05:03,640 --> 01:05:06,920
Speaker 1: were losing. I've only seen that happen in games they

1205
01:05:06,960 --> 01:05:10,640
Speaker 1: were winning comfortably. So bold predictions. Some were good, some

1206
01:05:10,680 --> 01:05:12,960
Speaker 1: were bad, but I think it's very important to hold

1207
01:05:13,080 --> 01:05:16,560
Speaker 1: all of ourselves accountable, and that is what we try

1208
01:05:16,560 --> 01:05:19,520
Speaker 1: and do this time of year. Thank you guys so

1209
01:05:19,680 --> 01:05:23,600
Speaker 1: much for watching the show tonight. Make sure you're following

1210
01:05:23,640 --> 01:05:27,400
Speaker 1: on the socials. I can't stress enough Bold best bets.

1211
01:05:27,480 --> 01:05:30,120
Speaker 1: Raman Noddle Express has not pulled into the station yet.

1212
01:05:30,960 --> 01:05:33,280
Speaker 1: At Lake Kick Josh Twitter and Instagram, make sure you're

1213
01:05:33,320 --> 01:05:36,000
Speaker 1: following for producer Jassey, director Colin. I'm Josh Pate. Take care,

1214
01:05:36,040 --> 01:05:44,600
Speaker 1: have a great start to your week, and God bless.

1215
01:05:50,200 --> 01:05:53,240
Speaker 1: Must be twenty one or over and present in select states.

1216
01:05:53,360 --> 01:05:56,320
Speaker 1: FanDuel is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an

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