1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,520 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast 5 00:00:15,560 --> 00:00:18,479 Speaker 1: called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:21,880 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. Right now, let's get 7 00:00:21,880 --> 00:00:25,000 Speaker 1: some more color on the jobs data that we had 8 00:00:25,160 --> 00:00:29,200 Speaker 1: this morning. Data Peterson, chief Economists and centered leader of Economy, 9 00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:32,240 Speaker 1: Strategy and Finance at the conference board, joins us Danta. 10 00:00:32,320 --> 00:00:36,440 Speaker 1: What was your takeaway from the jobs data that we 11 00:00:36,520 --> 00:00:42,080 Speaker 1: received this morning. Well, yes, you know, the apparels print 12 00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:45,440 Speaker 1: undershot market expectations, but I still think it's a good number, 13 00:00:45,960 --> 00:00:49,520 Speaker 1: especially given the spread of omicron. And honestly, I think, 14 00:00:49,600 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 1: you know, the you know, roughly half a million job 15 00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:55,160 Speaker 1: games that folks who are anticipating may have been a 16 00:00:55,200 --> 00:00:58,080 Speaker 1: bit aggressive. Let's look back at December. We had many 17 00:00:58,160 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 1: people who were getting sick, um, many in person services 18 00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:05,080 Speaker 1: activities are getting canceled, and so it didn't really seem 19 00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:08,520 Speaker 1: like the greatest environment for big payroll additions. And I 20 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:11,720 Speaker 1: would say that you know, any continued gains in labor 21 00:01:11,760 --> 00:01:15,600 Speaker 1: market indicator should be viewed constructively by the FEDS and 22 00:01:16,000 --> 00:01:19,080 Speaker 1: UH positive for the FED. Do you continue on its 23 00:01:19,120 --> 00:01:23,080 Speaker 1: path of of finishing up que paper probably by March 24 00:01:23,240 --> 00:01:27,320 Speaker 1: and adding rather raising interest rates three or four times 25 00:01:27,319 --> 00:01:31,280 Speaker 1: this year? How are you thinking about the unemployment rate 26 00:01:31,760 --> 00:01:35,280 Speaker 1: that continues to check lower, and then the labor force 27 00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:38,440 Speaker 1: participation rate. It was interesting that we heard comments from 28 00:01:38,600 --> 00:01:42,440 Speaker 1: Bullard yesterday saying that pre pandemic levels are no longer 29 00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:46,399 Speaker 1: an appropriate benchmark as we're thinking about some of these 30 00:01:46,520 --> 00:01:52,320 Speaker 1: job industries that we've been following. Sure, you know, the 31 00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:54,880 Speaker 1: unemployment rate is really collapsed. It's now at three point 32 00:01:54,960 --> 00:01:57,000 Speaker 1: nine percent. It's getting very close to three and a 33 00:01:57,040 --> 00:02:00,600 Speaker 1: half percent, which is where we were before the pandemic. 34 00:02:01,040 --> 00:02:03,480 Speaker 1: When you look at the participation rate, I would have 35 00:02:03,520 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 1: to agree with UM President Bullard that maybe we shouldn't 36 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:10,959 Speaker 1: be looking at the pre pandemic level. UH. Since then, 37 00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:13,480 Speaker 1: we've had a wave of retirements, many of those folks 38 00:02:13,480 --> 00:02:16,120 Speaker 1: to probably not clean back to the labor market, and 39 00:02:16,200 --> 00:02:19,720 Speaker 1: so that's going to depress UH the participation rate. We 40 00:02:19,800 --> 00:02:22,119 Speaker 1: also are still in the midst of this pandemic. Many 41 00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:25,800 Speaker 1: people are still afraid of getting infected. There's still childcare 42 00:02:25,880 --> 00:02:29,240 Speaker 1: issues you have, you know, over a hundred thousand childcare 43 00:02:29,280 --> 00:02:32,519 Speaker 1: workers that are still missing. I would suggest that with 44 00:02:32,560 --> 00:02:35,359 Speaker 1: all of that, we have to take the participation rate 45 00:02:35,400 --> 00:02:39,080 Speaker 1: with a grade of salt. So how do you think 46 00:02:39,160 --> 00:02:42,359 Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve is going to part the data that 47 00:02:42,400 --> 00:02:46,280 Speaker 1: they saw this morning. I think that they're going to 48 00:02:46,680 --> 00:02:51,120 Speaker 1: say that we are either very close to or we 49 00:02:51,200 --> 00:02:54,560 Speaker 1: have achieved full employment. Um. Look at the games that 50 00:02:54,639 --> 00:02:59,440 Speaker 1: we've seen just the sinse of the pandemic. Um we 51 00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:02,760 Speaker 1: have roughly, uh, you know, four million people let's say, 52 00:03:02,800 --> 00:03:06,400 Speaker 1: that are still missing from payrolls compared to twenty one million, 53 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:10,000 Speaker 1: which is where we were at the beginning of the pandemic. UM. 54 00:03:10,120 --> 00:03:12,519 Speaker 1: And I think also when you look at the details 55 00:03:12,560 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 1: of the report, we had gains everywhere except for retail 56 00:03:15,960 --> 00:03:19,919 Speaker 1: and I think tempa employment and so we didn't see 57 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:23,160 Speaker 1: big gains in leisure and hospitality, which makes sense given 58 00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:26,119 Speaker 1: the fact that in person services are still being affected 59 00:03:26,480 --> 00:03:29,640 Speaker 1: by the pandemic, which we're still in. So I would 60 00:03:29,639 --> 00:03:32,240 Speaker 1: imagine that again with the labor market, the set is 61 00:03:32,280 --> 00:03:35,160 Speaker 1: probably okay with these numbers, and that their concerns are 62 00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:37,720 Speaker 1: still going to remain squarely on inflation. If you look 63 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:40,280 Speaker 1: at average hourly wages, they were up seven percent of 64 00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:43,560 Speaker 1: the last nine months. That's that's really outstanding. And when 65 00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:46,760 Speaker 1: we look at the CPI and the pc deflator, those 66 00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:49,160 Speaker 1: measures continue to climb, and I think that's going to 67 00:03:49,200 --> 00:03:52,240 Speaker 1: be the focus for the said Dana. I am curious 68 00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:54,640 Speaker 1: though we had a Federal Reserve a few years ago 69 00:03:54,840 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 1: saying that they're going to let inflation run hot because 70 00:03:57,320 --> 00:04:01,720 Speaker 1: they're really focused on this new definition of full employment 71 00:04:01,920 --> 00:04:05,480 Speaker 1: and we're seeing the unemployment rate for Black Americans actually 72 00:04:05,600 --> 00:04:09,280 Speaker 1: rising now to seven point one percent, it's being led 73 00:04:09,320 --> 00:04:13,600 Speaker 1: by black women. Is the Fed sort of backtracking on 74 00:04:13,760 --> 00:04:17,680 Speaker 1: that shift that it made a few years ago because 75 00:04:17,760 --> 00:04:21,360 Speaker 1: inflation is turning out to be a bigger issue than 76 00:04:21,400 --> 00:04:25,480 Speaker 1: we thought. I don't think so. If we think about 77 00:04:25,640 --> 00:04:31,120 Speaker 1: the statements from policymakers, said policymakers over the last months, UM, 78 00:04:31,240 --> 00:04:34,159 Speaker 1: they're some of them are of the opinion that we've 79 00:04:34,200 --> 00:04:38,039 Speaker 1: already achieved the inflation target. Right, We're we're notably above 80 00:04:38,080 --> 00:04:42,320 Speaker 1: the inflation target. And that um given the fact that again, 81 00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:44,800 Speaker 1: if we are very close to full employment, or we've 82 00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:48,760 Speaker 1: achieved full employment, and many metrics for other demographic groups, 83 00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:52,080 Speaker 1: even women, that participation rate picked up, and certainly for 84 00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:55,960 Speaker 1: Hispanic women UM and Hispanic males and black mails with 85 00:04:56,160 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 1: the data are better that we're still very consistent with 86 00:05:00,080 --> 00:05:04,200 Speaker 1: that revised UH mandate regarding the labor market and inflation. 87 00:05:04,680 --> 00:05:07,680 Speaker 1: And again we're kind of beyond in terms of inflation, 88 00:05:07,760 --> 00:05:10,000 Speaker 1: and so it makes sense that the FED should be 89 00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:14,400 Speaker 1: focused on that right now and should look to adjust 90 00:05:14,400 --> 00:05:20,520 Speaker 1: policy accordingly. Dania, are you concerned at all about wage inflation? 91 00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:22,200 Speaker 1: We saw the year of a year gains a little 92 00:05:22,200 --> 00:05:24,839 Speaker 1: bit better than expected, up four point seven percent. Is 93 00:05:24,880 --> 00:05:29,159 Speaker 1: that a concern for you, Yes, it definitely is. It 94 00:05:29,240 --> 00:05:31,760 Speaker 1: certainly does reflect the fact that we have these severe 95 00:05:31,839 --> 00:05:35,359 Speaker 1: labor shortages. And these severe labor shortages are a slection 96 00:05:35,440 --> 00:05:38,080 Speaker 1: of a number of factors, some of them directly related 97 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:41,280 Speaker 1: to the pandemic, others because we have an aging demographic 98 00:05:41,680 --> 00:05:44,039 Speaker 1: and labor shortages are probably not going to go away 99 00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:46,440 Speaker 1: even after the pandemic is over, and so we have 100 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:48,719 Speaker 1: to be very careful. Certainly, the FED has to look 101 00:05:48,760 --> 00:05:53,760 Speaker 1: at the interaction between rising wages and rising inflation. UM. 102 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:58,920 Speaker 1: The last time we that I remember, uh share Palal 103 00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:02,280 Speaker 1: said that the FED didn't oddsy um a wage price 104 00:06:02,360 --> 00:06:05,360 Speaker 1: spiral developing, but that certainly is a risk, and that 105 00:06:05,400 --> 00:06:09,920 Speaker 1: would certainly factor into how extensively the FED looks to 106 00:06:10,040 --> 00:06:14,160 Speaker 1: tighten policy. On that note, when we are rating the 107 00:06:15,200 --> 00:06:20,040 Speaker 1: investment outlooks inflation, the risk of a policy error our 108 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:23,479 Speaker 1: top of mind, with many more mentions than even the 109 00:06:23,560 --> 00:06:26,840 Speaker 1: COVID vary in. And so I am curious when you 110 00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:30,800 Speaker 1: think you know what is the risk of a policy error, 111 00:06:30,800 --> 00:06:34,000 Speaker 1: and and when do you think that that risk will 112 00:06:34,040 --> 00:06:37,599 Speaker 1: be behind us? Sure, I guess you know there could 113 00:06:37,600 --> 00:06:40,640 Speaker 1: be a number of different policy errors. The key one 114 00:06:40,880 --> 00:06:43,719 Speaker 1: is you know they're the FED weight too late. And certainly, 115 00:06:44,120 --> 00:06:49,400 Speaker 1: as you mentioned the revised policy in terms of inflation 116 00:06:49,440 --> 00:06:54,120 Speaker 1: and labor markets, know the FED is consistent. And certainly 117 00:06:54,200 --> 00:06:57,040 Speaker 1: if they were going to allow UH inflation to run 118 00:06:57,080 --> 00:06:59,080 Speaker 1: a little hot, they've done that. If they were going 119 00:06:59,120 --> 00:07:02,039 Speaker 1: to allow more patients for seeing the labor markets improve, 120 00:07:02,120 --> 00:07:06,000 Speaker 1: they've done that as well. So uh. The the issue 121 00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:10,160 Speaker 1: now is how do they calibrate um the paper, how 122 00:07:10,160 --> 00:07:12,400 Speaker 1: do they calibrate interest rate hikes, and how do they 123 00:07:12,440 --> 00:07:16,080 Speaker 1: calibrate potentially running off the balance sheet? And so I 124 00:07:16,120 --> 00:07:19,960 Speaker 1: think those are the big risks out there, and certainly, uh, 125 00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:22,240 Speaker 1: we're going to see those risks over the course of 126 00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:25,880 Speaker 1: this year and potentially over the course of next year. Dana, 127 00:07:25,920 --> 00:07:28,360 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. Really appreciate getting 128 00:07:28,400 --> 00:07:31,680 Speaker 1: your thoughts on this job to day Dana Peterson, she's 129 00:07:31,680 --> 00:07:35,400 Speaker 1: a chief economist and Center Leader of Economy, Strategy and 130 00:07:35,440 --> 00:07:42,440 Speaker 1: Finance at the conference Board. All right, let's go to 131 00:07:42,440 --> 00:07:45,160 Speaker 1: Tom Giblehill, founder and CEO of the Last Sound Network. Tom, 132 00:07:45,200 --> 00:07:47,520 Speaker 1: I know you're talking to employers out there every day. 133 00:07:47,720 --> 00:07:50,160 Speaker 1: What are you seeing in the market. I mean, I 134 00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:52,840 Speaker 1: think the numbers, you know, really speak for themselves. People 135 00:07:52,840 --> 00:07:56,480 Speaker 1: get really focused on the glossy of oh, we've only 136 00:07:56,520 --> 00:08:00,680 Speaker 1: added two thousand jobs in December, unemployment up to under 137 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:06,920 Speaker 1: four wages year over year increased almost five Those are 138 00:08:07,040 --> 00:08:13,240 Speaker 1: unheard of numbers in spite of a global pandemic and 139 00:08:13,280 --> 00:08:17,480 Speaker 1: the fact that if unemployment drops so low, there aren't 140 00:08:17,480 --> 00:08:20,280 Speaker 1: people to fill the jobs. And we're still adding two 141 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:23,560 Speaker 1: hundred thousand jobs. This is not a bad sign. This 142 00:08:23,680 --> 00:08:27,320 Speaker 1: is a good month. And Tom, it's interesting when you 143 00:08:27,400 --> 00:08:31,720 Speaker 1: also talk about this week we got the job opening survey, 144 00:08:32,040 --> 00:08:35,640 Speaker 1: the quit rates and another record high. How is the 145 00:08:35,679 --> 00:08:40,440 Speaker 1: great labor shortage. What do you see? Well, the real 146 00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:45,920 Speaker 1: the problem with the labor shortage is COVID, period, pure 147 00:08:45,960 --> 00:08:49,920 Speaker 1: and simple, is that we've got a situation that no 148 00:08:49,960 --> 00:08:53,040 Speaker 1: one has ever experienced before. It's been going on for 149 00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:56,160 Speaker 1: two years. People have been working remotely, and you have 150 00:08:56,400 --> 00:09:02,120 Speaker 1: people due to fear due to childcare, due to school closures. Right, 151 00:09:02,280 --> 00:09:05,360 Speaker 1: I'm in Chicago right now, the Chicago public school system 152 00:09:05,400 --> 00:09:09,160 Speaker 1: is all doing remote remote school Right. We've got this challenge. 153 00:09:09,200 --> 00:09:13,959 Speaker 1: So we're never gonna have um until COVID gets quote 154 00:09:14,000 --> 00:09:19,320 Speaker 1: unquote under control, whatever that may mean, a real accurate view. 155 00:09:19,600 --> 00:09:22,760 Speaker 1: We can't compare things to pre COVID because it's not 156 00:09:22,840 --> 00:09:26,880 Speaker 1: pre COVID, and people are trying to find that common denominator. 157 00:09:27,040 --> 00:09:31,000 Speaker 1: There isn't one. So to the I don't know the 158 00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:33,600 Speaker 1: four or five folks that have millillion folks I'm sorry 159 00:09:33,640 --> 00:09:36,800 Speaker 1: that have left the workforce, have they really left the 160 00:09:36,880 --> 00:09:40,959 Speaker 1: workforce permanently? Well, No, Number one, I don't think it's permanently. 161 00:09:41,360 --> 00:09:44,120 Speaker 1: Number two, I think what data we haven't gotten. And 162 00:09:44,240 --> 00:09:47,880 Speaker 1: my my belief is, and this is purely a belief, 163 00:09:48,280 --> 00:09:50,640 Speaker 1: is that the majority of those people come from two 164 00:09:50,720 --> 00:09:54,880 Speaker 1: income households. So you've got people that we're working in 165 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:57,680 Speaker 1: in some capacity, and when you look at that, because 166 00:09:57,720 --> 00:10:00,960 Speaker 1: wages have increased so much, there's house is making more 167 00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:04,680 Speaker 1: money and they don't need that delta between what the 168 00:10:04,679 --> 00:10:08,600 Speaker 1: spouses compensation is increased in the cost of daycare and 169 00:10:08,640 --> 00:10:11,120 Speaker 1: how little they were making. That's why they're pulling out 170 00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:14,480 Speaker 1: of the workforce. So I think you're seeing that it's 171 00:10:14,520 --> 00:10:18,680 Speaker 1: a variety of reasons they will come back. Inflation hasn't 172 00:10:18,679 --> 00:10:22,080 Speaker 1: even started to really hit yet, and we'll see what 173 00:10:22,160 --> 00:10:24,880 Speaker 1: happens with the strand. I mean, I think that the 174 00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:28,360 Speaker 1: real great equalizer with COVID has been this latest strand 175 00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:31,680 Speaker 1: because we're seeing a lot more cases reported, but not 176 00:10:31,800 --> 00:10:35,000 Speaker 1: as many hospitalizations, not as many bets, and people are 177 00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:36,800 Speaker 1: starting to get sick of it. And I think comes 178 00:10:36,800 --> 00:10:39,880 Speaker 1: spring and summer, you're gonna see labor numbers really hop 179 00:10:39,960 --> 00:10:42,360 Speaker 1: up on people coming back into the workforce to take 180 00:10:42,400 --> 00:10:45,560 Speaker 1: advantage of the economy and make money. Tom Another big 181 00:10:45,640 --> 00:10:47,960 Speaker 1: theme that I've noticed from most of the people that 182 00:10:48,040 --> 00:10:52,240 Speaker 1: we speak with is that the seasonal worker, they're trying 183 00:10:52,280 --> 00:10:54,839 Speaker 1: to hold onto them and make them permanent because there 184 00:10:54,920 --> 00:10:57,720 Speaker 1: is such a labor shortage. Are you seeing that where 185 00:10:57,880 --> 00:11:03,920 Speaker 1: the temporary and the seasonal work curs, they're being held onto. Yeah, 186 00:11:03,920 --> 00:11:06,439 Speaker 1: there's no doubt about it. Is that because what we're 187 00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:10,960 Speaker 1: seeing is is UH instead of seasonal spikes, we're seeing 188 00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:15,079 Speaker 1: this current economic boom, and that means that the economy 189 00:11:15,120 --> 00:11:19,319 Speaker 1: continues to grow and companies continue to have record profits. 190 00:11:19,640 --> 00:11:22,960 Speaker 1: We're seeing even in numbers of privately held companies increase 191 00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:26,360 Speaker 1: and companies can't get enough people, so they've brought people 192 00:11:26,400 --> 00:11:29,240 Speaker 1: on its seasonal and they're trying to convert those people 193 00:11:29,280 --> 00:11:32,040 Speaker 1: to permanent jobs. We're seeing our attempt to perm numbers 194 00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:35,959 Speaker 1: people who are temporary and get converted onto permanent payrolls 195 00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:39,560 Speaker 1: of of our client organizations increase as companies are trying 196 00:11:39,600 --> 00:11:42,400 Speaker 1: to do that. Hey, Tom, thanks so much for joining us. 197 00:11:42,400 --> 00:11:45,600 Speaker 1: We always appreciate getting your perspective when we talk about 198 00:11:45,600 --> 00:11:48,719 Speaker 1: the labor market and jobs numbers. UH. Tom Gibble, he's 199 00:11:48,720 --> 00:11:53,120 Speaker 1: a founder and CEO of LASAL Network National Staffing Recruiting 200 00:11:53,400 --> 00:11:57,400 Speaker 1: UH firm focus attempt Workers, contract staffing as well as 201 00:11:57,440 --> 00:12:02,960 Speaker 1: direct hires. Markets here trading off of the SMP off 202 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:06,440 Speaker 1: about a half a percent. NASTAC once again leading the 203 00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:10,160 Speaker 1: way lower. Let's get more color on the jobs market 204 00:12:10,160 --> 00:12:15,080 Speaker 1: with Johnny Bailey, chief workforce Analysts at employee Bridge. Genie, 205 00:12:15,080 --> 00:12:18,480 Speaker 1: what was your sorry, Joanie, what was your takeaway from 206 00:12:18,600 --> 00:12:22,720 Speaker 1: the job's number we saw this morning? Well, good morning 207 00:12:22,760 --> 00:12:25,320 Speaker 1: and thanks for having me on. You know, today's report 208 00:12:25,520 --> 00:12:29,520 Speaker 1: was a bit of a surprise. I think the headline 209 00:12:29,600 --> 00:12:32,560 Speaker 1: number was very disappointing to only see a hundred and 210 00:12:32,600 --> 00:12:38,319 Speaker 1: ninety nine thousand jobs created UM. But digging into the report, 211 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:42,320 Speaker 1: I will say there is a lot of good news there. 212 00:12:42,360 --> 00:12:46,760 Speaker 1: There was job growth in many of the sectors. UM. 213 00:12:46,760 --> 00:12:49,760 Speaker 1: We did see fifty three thousand jobs come back and 214 00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:56,880 Speaker 1: leisure and hospitality. We saw jobs created in construction and manufacturing, UM, 215 00:12:56,880 --> 00:13:02,280 Speaker 1: certainly in retail and healthcare air. However, the job growth 216 00:13:02,440 --> 00:13:05,960 Speaker 1: was not as robust as we thought it was going 217 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:10,000 Speaker 1: to be, so UM still moving in the right direction, 218 00:13:10,640 --> 00:13:14,160 Speaker 1: but you know we're not. The labor market still hasn't 219 00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:17,640 Speaker 1: really recovered from the pandemic, and certainly we're seeing that 220 00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:22,160 Speaker 1: in these numbers. When we talk about a labor market, 221 00:13:22,280 --> 00:13:26,520 Speaker 1: and from your perspective, a lot of maybe structural shifts 222 00:13:26,520 --> 00:13:28,959 Speaker 1: that have undergone. We've heard from a few FED presidents 223 00:13:29,000 --> 00:13:32,800 Speaker 1: that looking at pre pandemic levels of employment or labor 224 00:13:32,800 --> 00:13:37,160 Speaker 1: force participation is no longer appropriate from your perspective, how 225 00:13:37,160 --> 00:13:39,640 Speaker 1: are you thinking about those who are looking for jobs 226 00:13:39,640 --> 00:13:41,959 Speaker 1: those who are not, and if there has been sort 227 00:13:42,000 --> 00:13:44,360 Speaker 1: of a structural shift where we're not going back to 228 00:13:44,400 --> 00:13:49,240 Speaker 1: the way things were before. Yeah, things are definitely different, 229 00:13:49,440 --> 00:13:53,559 Speaker 1: and certainly one of the biggest challenges we have as 230 00:13:53,559 --> 00:13:58,440 Speaker 1: a US economy right now is labor participation. It is 231 00:13:58,480 --> 00:14:01,720 Speaker 1: the biggest challenge we're seeing for businesses. They are struggling 232 00:14:01,760 --> 00:14:05,720 Speaker 1: to find workers and we just don't have enough people 233 00:14:06,200 --> 00:14:10,640 Speaker 1: participating in the workforce. It does seem that, you know, 234 00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:14,680 Speaker 1: many unemployed aren't searching for work right now. Um. And 235 00:14:14,760 --> 00:14:17,520 Speaker 1: that could be still for a few reasons. It could 236 00:14:17,559 --> 00:14:23,040 Speaker 1: certainly be COVID concerns, it could be family care issues, um. 237 00:14:23,120 --> 00:14:24,720 Speaker 1: And some of them they just have a little bit 238 00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:28,000 Speaker 1: more of a financial cushion and they're just not you know, 239 00:14:28,120 --> 00:14:31,400 Speaker 1: coming back to work yet. But the jobs are out there. 240 00:14:31,480 --> 00:14:35,320 Speaker 1: We have over ten million, there's ten point six million 241 00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:40,720 Speaker 1: open job postings and to only create, you know, close 242 00:14:40,800 --> 00:14:44,760 Speaker 1: to two thousand jobs for the month of December really 243 00:14:44,840 --> 00:14:48,240 Speaker 1: points to that disconnect, right. It's that true supply and 244 00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:51,600 Speaker 1: demand issue. The demand is there, and we just we 245 00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:54,520 Speaker 1: don't have a supply of people that are willing to 246 00:14:54,560 --> 00:14:57,960 Speaker 1: participate in the workforce. So we need to encourage people 247 00:14:57,960 --> 00:15:01,240 Speaker 1: to get back to work. UM. That's one thing we're 248 00:15:01,280 --> 00:15:06,080 Speaker 1: seeing declining rates, certainly for females and the workforce. UM. 249 00:15:06,120 --> 00:15:09,040 Speaker 1: We're seeing that, you know, more of the baby boomers 250 00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:12,600 Speaker 1: that maybe stopped working during the pandemic are not coming 251 00:15:12,640 --> 00:15:15,640 Speaker 1: back to work. So UM, we need to figure out 252 00:15:15,680 --> 00:15:21,200 Speaker 1: ways to get more people participating in the workforce and UM. Otherwise, 253 00:15:21,400 --> 00:15:25,000 Speaker 1: you know, I think businesses are going to really see 254 00:15:25,040 --> 00:15:27,520 Speaker 1: the impact in their earnings and they're not going to 255 00:15:27,560 --> 00:15:31,360 Speaker 1: be able to produce their products and deliver their services UM, 256 00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:34,480 Speaker 1: certainly in the future, and that's going to impact earnings. 257 00:15:34,480 --> 00:15:38,400 Speaker 1: In Q two and Q three of this year, Johnny 258 00:15:38,440 --> 00:15:41,880 Speaker 1: talked us about immigration and how that may be impacting 259 00:15:42,360 --> 00:15:46,720 Speaker 1: the participation rate in the job's fulfillment issue, particting on 260 00:15:46,760 --> 00:15:49,120 Speaker 1: the lower end of the economic scale. We've had obviously 261 00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:53,120 Speaker 1: a containmant in immigration, legal and illegal immigration. Is that 262 00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:56,240 Speaker 1: an issue that needs to be addressed, is that one 263 00:15:56,280 --> 00:16:00,440 Speaker 1: of the causes. It certainly is a con earn and 264 00:16:00,520 --> 00:16:05,000 Speaker 1: a challenge. UM. With all the immigration UM and illegal 265 00:16:05,080 --> 00:16:09,960 Speaker 1: immigration that we are seeing, you know, many of those 266 00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:14,360 Speaker 1: people will obviously becoming you know over and looking for work, 267 00:16:14,560 --> 00:16:18,560 Speaker 1: and they usually end up finding those jobs, right that 268 00:16:18,840 --> 00:16:25,120 Speaker 1: those you know, manual labor um you know, hourly jobs, 269 00:16:25,120 --> 00:16:27,840 Speaker 1: but they're not you know, they're working for employers that 270 00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:33,960 Speaker 1: aren't following the guidelines of you know, paying people legally 271 00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:37,360 Speaker 1: in the country. UM. There's so there's so many issues 272 00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:42,120 Speaker 1: with that. Certainly on the lower hourly UM wage scale. 273 00:16:42,200 --> 00:16:46,280 Speaker 1: We see that that will impact of course legal workers 274 00:16:46,480 --> 00:16:50,880 Speaker 1: in the US where UM, they may not be getting 275 00:16:50,880 --> 00:16:53,320 Speaker 1: those jobs because those jobs are going to the illegal 276 00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:57,160 Speaker 1: workers and they're taking the jobs form less money. So 277 00:16:57,520 --> 00:17:03,640 Speaker 1: that can certainly impact those hourly wages UM. And you 278 00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:05,280 Speaker 1: know the one thing I you know, I can tell 279 00:17:05,320 --> 00:17:09,679 Speaker 1: you from Employee Bridge, we we place you know, eighty 280 00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:14,280 Speaker 1: thousand to ninety workers on a weekly basis, and many 281 00:17:14,320 --> 00:17:19,480 Speaker 1: of them are in manufacturing and logistics UM and hourly positions. 282 00:17:19,520 --> 00:17:23,159 Speaker 1: And of course we follow all the guidelines and you know, 283 00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:27,159 Speaker 1: make sure that there's a nine documentation UM. But we 284 00:17:27,320 --> 00:17:30,480 Speaker 1: see that there are companies out there that aren't following that. 285 00:17:30,600 --> 00:17:33,800 Speaker 1: You can really get yourself into into some trouble and 286 00:17:33,840 --> 00:17:39,320 Speaker 1: some difficulty, um, but we need to get them. We 287 00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:42,880 Speaker 1: need to get immigration addressed and make sure that even 288 00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:44,960 Speaker 1: the people that are here, you know, what are we 289 00:17:45,000 --> 00:17:47,679 Speaker 1: going to do about making sure that they are working 290 00:17:47,720 --> 00:17:51,440 Speaker 1: also in safe environments? And how do we do that legally? 291 00:17:51,480 --> 00:17:54,280 Speaker 1: It's it's certainly a big challenge talk to us about 292 00:17:54,600 --> 00:17:57,160 Speaker 1: some of the maybe the lower end wages, but really 293 00:17:57,160 --> 00:17:59,760 Speaker 1: pretty much all across the scale. For the first time, 294 00:17:59,800 --> 00:18:03,680 Speaker 1: so only in my lifetime, we're looking at inflation prints 295 00:18:03,720 --> 00:18:06,560 Speaker 1: of almost seven percent, and so a two or three 296 00:18:06,560 --> 00:18:11,080 Speaker 1: percent wage increase isn't cutting it. I'm still looking at 297 00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:16,320 Speaker 1: some pretty big negative real wages adjusted for inflation. Are 298 00:18:16,400 --> 00:18:19,160 Speaker 1: you seeing as we approach some of these big inflationary 299 00:18:19,280 --> 00:18:24,120 Speaker 1: numbers wages keeping up and and particularly on the lower end, 300 00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:30,000 Speaker 1: we are seeing wages move um a little bit more 301 00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:34,359 Speaker 1: aggressively than what's reported in the BLS numbers. When we 302 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:39,280 Speaker 1: look at, for example, our pro drivers business, we're seeing 303 00:18:39,320 --> 00:18:44,399 Speaker 1: that the driver's wages are up more like fifteen to 304 00:18:44,560 --> 00:18:49,480 Speaker 1: sixteen or seventeen percent on a year over year basis UM, 305 00:18:49,600 --> 00:18:52,120 Speaker 1: so much more than we're seeing in the in the 306 00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:54,040 Speaker 1: report that we saw today, which I think was about 307 00:18:54,040 --> 00:18:57,000 Speaker 1: four point seven percent for an hourly wage, you know, 308 00:18:57,200 --> 00:19:01,800 Speaker 1: just across the board, UM, manufact extreme and logistics the 309 00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:05,359 Speaker 1: same thing. It's it's more double digit growth over the 310 00:19:05,480 --> 00:19:09,160 Speaker 1: last year. UM. And that is just because the market 311 00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:14,159 Speaker 1: is so competitive. You know, employers cannot find workers and 312 00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:17,200 Speaker 1: they are being forced to have to pay more on 313 00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:23,040 Speaker 1: that hourly rate UM for you know, manufacturing logistics positions. 314 00:19:23,359 --> 00:19:25,960 Speaker 1: So we're seeing a bit more movement in those areas 315 00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:29,800 Speaker 1: than what is being reported from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 316 00:19:30,560 --> 00:19:33,720 Speaker 1: Johnny talked to us about the union worker. We've seen 317 00:19:34,240 --> 00:19:38,560 Speaker 1: some strikes, some successful strikes. UM. John Deer for example, 318 00:19:38,640 --> 00:19:42,199 Speaker 1: just just recently talked us about the union size of 319 00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:46,479 Speaker 1: the labor force. Are they getting more leverage visa via 320 00:19:46,480 --> 00:19:51,480 Speaker 1: the employer? You know, we we don't do a lot 321 00:19:51,520 --> 00:19:54,879 Speaker 1: of work with unions at Employed Bridge, so I'm not 322 00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:59,600 Speaker 1: your best experts certainly in that area, UM. But what 323 00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:03,840 Speaker 1: we do see is that, UM, certainly there is a need, 324 00:20:04,359 --> 00:20:07,439 Speaker 1: you know, in in certain parts of the country. And 325 00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:10,480 Speaker 1: when I look at even like the teachers unions of 326 00:20:10,480 --> 00:20:13,399 Speaker 1: of what they're looking for, UM, I think there is 327 00:20:13,440 --> 00:20:18,280 Speaker 1: certainly a place for unions UM, and really to protect 328 00:20:18,400 --> 00:20:22,440 Speaker 1: the rights of the workers. UM. We've seen it certainly 329 00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:27,399 Speaker 1: with airlines as well, But there's UM. Many of the 330 00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:32,160 Speaker 1: businesses that I'm dealing with UM are not driven by 331 00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:35,520 Speaker 1: the union worker, and so the employees are a little 332 00:20:35,520 --> 00:20:39,600 Speaker 1: bit more on their own UM. And you know, we 333 00:20:39,720 --> 00:20:45,159 Speaker 1: look certainly to employers to make sure they're offering the 334 00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:48,439 Speaker 1: right benefits to their workers, that they have environments to 335 00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:53,440 Speaker 1: retain them, that they're paying them competitively, and we feel 336 00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:56,680 Speaker 1: that they're really doing that. I think employers UM are 337 00:20:56,720 --> 00:21:00,359 Speaker 1: focused on employee retention right now. There there's con earns 338 00:21:00,480 --> 00:21:03,400 Speaker 1: right if that what we hear about the great resignation 339 00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:07,359 Speaker 1: and that so many people are quitting their jobs and 340 00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:11,000 Speaker 1: employers are smart, They're they're getting smarter about how do 341 00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:16,080 Speaker 1: they focus on strategies to retain their workers. So just 342 00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:19,320 Speaker 1: as unions are trying to do that, we certainly see 343 00:21:19,960 --> 00:21:23,680 Speaker 1: the private employers doing that as well. I am curious 344 00:21:23,720 --> 00:21:28,240 Speaker 1: the way that benefits have changed. The way that companies 345 00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:31,639 Speaker 1: are thinking about retaining talent has changed. I remember a 346 00:21:31,640 --> 00:21:36,480 Speaker 1: few years ago, free snacks or at ping pong table, right, 347 00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:39,359 Speaker 1: we're all the rage, and now it's like, no, I 348 00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:43,360 Speaker 1: just need flexibility to work from home and what has 349 00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:46,960 Speaker 1: that shift been, Like, what is the biggest ask right 350 00:21:46,960 --> 00:21:49,560 Speaker 1: now when it comes from what employees are sort of 351 00:21:49,640 --> 00:21:54,360 Speaker 1: asking for from their employers right I know, it's so 352 00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:56,719 Speaker 1: funny because I remember those days to where we were 353 00:21:56,720 --> 00:21:59,760 Speaker 1: talking about like bring your dog to work day or 354 00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:03,280 Speaker 1: are flip flops? You know that, UM, and the ping 355 00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:06,080 Speaker 1: pong tables and all that. You know, it's that has 356 00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:10,399 Speaker 1: definitely changed, and you're absolutely spot on. It's all about 357 00:22:10,720 --> 00:22:15,359 Speaker 1: work force flexibility. UM. People want to work from home. 358 00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:18,119 Speaker 1: They want to be in control a bit more of 359 00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:23,240 Speaker 1: their hours. UM. They like the hybrid modeled but where 360 00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:25,280 Speaker 1: maybe they're in the office for a few days and 361 00:22:25,320 --> 00:22:27,199 Speaker 1: then you can work from their home office for a 362 00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:31,640 Speaker 1: couple of days. So flexibility has risen to kind of 363 00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:34,840 Speaker 1: the top of the list. Of course, they're looking for 364 00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:40,520 Speaker 1: great pay um and health care benefits and paid time off, 365 00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:46,040 Speaker 1: but flexibility is one of the kind of hottest things 366 00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:49,200 Speaker 1: that an employer can offer right now to really retain 367 00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:52,439 Speaker 1: their employees. And I think that speaks to COVID and 368 00:22:52,480 --> 00:22:56,080 Speaker 1: what we've all gone through over the last few years. 369 00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:58,240 Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know about you guys that I 370 00:22:58,320 --> 00:23:00,000 Speaker 1: used to be in a role where I was trying 371 00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:04,159 Speaker 1: traveling at every single week, right, and COVID changed that, 372 00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:06,520 Speaker 1: and it's it's funny coming out of it. You're like, gosh, 373 00:23:06,520 --> 00:23:10,040 Speaker 1: I don't want to be on a plane every week anymore. 374 00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:12,480 Speaker 1: And you know in the hotel rooms, LEN have to 375 00:23:12,480 --> 00:23:14,760 Speaker 1: sleep in my own bed. So I think they're you know, 376 00:23:14,840 --> 00:23:17,720 Speaker 1: we've reprioritized what's important to us, and I think the 377 00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:21,639 Speaker 1: workers definitely looking for more flexibility. Hey, Johnny, thank you 378 00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:24,119 Speaker 1: so much for doing us. We really appreciate you taking 379 00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:27,560 Speaker 1: the time giving us your thoughts on today's labor force 380 00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:35,560 Speaker 1: and labor market. Joni Bailey, chief workforce analyst at employee Bridge. 381 00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:38,040 Speaker 1: I want to switch gears, Taylor, talk a little bit 382 00:23:38,040 --> 00:23:42,000 Speaker 1: about the real estate business, particularly kind of the commercial 383 00:23:42,200 --> 00:23:44,640 Speaker 1: real estate business. You walk the streets of New York. 384 00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:48,040 Speaker 1: There's people here, but they're just not going up into 385 00:23:48,080 --> 00:23:49,880 Speaker 1: the office buildings. I don't know how that plays out. 386 00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:55,159 Speaker 1: Aaron Jodgat, National director of Capital Markets Research at Collier's Joints, 387 00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:59,280 Speaker 1: is here. Aaron, as we begin two here, we're dealing 388 00:23:59,320 --> 00:24:02,520 Speaker 1: with this only pron very and hopefully we're approaching the 389 00:24:02,600 --> 00:24:06,320 Speaker 1: peak here. How are you thinking about the commercial real 390 00:24:06,480 --> 00:24:10,920 Speaker 1: estate business going forward, Well, thank you. Uh. The the 391 00:24:11,800 --> 00:24:15,160 Speaker 1: pandemic is certainly challenge and one of the biggest concerns 392 00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:18,520 Speaker 1: with investors um we We recently did a survey of 393 00:24:18,560 --> 00:24:21,919 Speaker 1: our clients across the globe and the return to office 394 00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:26,320 Speaker 1: and subsequent variant and and an omicron and in the 395 00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:29,320 Speaker 1: Lake with pandemic has been one of the biggest concerns. 396 00:24:29,640 --> 00:24:33,080 Speaker 1: Other areas that they're worried about our rising construction costs 397 00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:36,960 Speaker 1: and government policy and regulations, but they're very optimistic on 398 00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:42,840 Speaker 1: the economic outlook. Rent growth and market liquidity. Was a 399 00:24:42,880 --> 00:24:46,879 Speaker 1: record year for investment sales volume, and we expect to 400 00:24:46,960 --> 00:24:49,960 Speaker 1: be another very strong year. When are you hearing about 401 00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:52,040 Speaker 1: sort of this full return to office if we ever 402 00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:55,200 Speaker 1: get there? Are are people looking at still leasing out 403 00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:58,840 Speaker 1: the same commercial space? Are they leasing out more space 404 00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:01,760 Speaker 1: because we all need more room to socially distant or 405 00:25:01,880 --> 00:25:04,879 Speaker 1: is it a lower footprint because only half the office 406 00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:08,159 Speaker 1: is coming back. Well, it's a mix. So in some 407 00:25:08,200 --> 00:25:10,880 Speaker 1: cases you're going to see companies that are continuing to expand, 408 00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:15,280 Speaker 1: their getting record amounts of venture capital funding, so they 409 00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:17,719 Speaker 1: need to scale, they need to grow, they need more space. 410 00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:20,320 Speaker 1: We're seeing other groups that are finding a balance of 411 00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:23,439 Speaker 1: remote work as well as in office work. UM. And 412 00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:26,280 Speaker 1: it's really going to differ by industry and by market. 413 00:25:26,560 --> 00:25:28,240 Speaker 1: To a place like New York will have a different 414 00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:31,560 Speaker 1: experience than a market like Nashville. UM. So we will 415 00:25:31,600 --> 00:25:35,679 Speaker 1: see differences across markets. UM. But ultimately, today when you 416 00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:38,040 Speaker 1: look at the unemployment rate, you look at the challenges 417 00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:41,520 Speaker 1: for employers to hire, they need to be flexible. Um. 418 00:25:41,640 --> 00:25:44,280 Speaker 1: They can't easily make a mandate and say everyone back 419 00:25:44,280 --> 00:25:46,879 Speaker 1: in the office tomorrow, um or else they run the 420 00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:49,120 Speaker 1: risk of losing some of their very important talent. And 421 00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:53,040 Speaker 1: today it's very challenging to replace those valuable contributors to 422 00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:56,280 Speaker 1: your organization. All right here in New York. You know, 423 00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:59,160 Speaker 1: we've since almost the beginning of this pandemic, we've seen 424 00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:01,920 Speaker 1: a at least it's been reported in the press. Is 425 00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:06,640 Speaker 1: a just a major migration from New York to Florida 426 00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:10,560 Speaker 1: to a lesser extent Texas. Is that permanent? Is that 427 00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:13,560 Speaker 1: a thing? Is that was that temporary? How do you 428 00:26:13,560 --> 00:26:15,480 Speaker 1: guys think about that? When you look at the real 429 00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:19,080 Speaker 1: estate out there, Well, when you look at migration patterns 430 00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:22,600 Speaker 1: over time, they've generally favored the Southeast and the Southwest, 431 00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:25,880 Speaker 1: and a lot of that migration comes from the northeast UM, 432 00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:28,840 Speaker 1: so that that's not a new trend. That happens in Boston, 433 00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:32,919 Speaker 1: happens in New York, it happens across the northeast UM. 434 00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:37,359 Speaker 1: But what we've really seen is that increased population in 435 00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:41,120 Speaker 1: the southeast and southwest has been a magnet for capitals. 436 00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:45,120 Speaker 1: Not only are we seeing new construction, new activity, more 437 00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:48,240 Speaker 1: jobs in those areas, investors are are focusing on that, 438 00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:54,119 Speaker 1: particularly on the multi family side. Multi family drove of 439 00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:58,080 Speaker 1: all investment sales activity in the country a record high 440 00:26:58,240 --> 00:27:02,520 Speaker 1: for that absolutely esta owning share of activity, and it's 441 00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:06,480 Speaker 1: because of that migration, it's because of the rapid rank 442 00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:08,680 Speaker 1: growth that we're seeing there, and the occupancies across the 443 00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:11,760 Speaker 1: multi family have never been stronger UM. But places like 444 00:27:11,800 --> 00:27:15,119 Speaker 1: New York are are starting to see your recoveries, Boston 445 00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:17,240 Speaker 1: starting to see recoveries. You look at the most recent 446 00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:20,920 Speaker 1: census data UM and that the biggest challenge has been 447 00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:27,160 Speaker 1: local migration, so sort of um US based migration. International 448 00:27:27,240 --> 00:27:29,919 Speaker 1: migration is a is a strength for these markets, but 449 00:27:30,200 --> 00:27:33,480 Speaker 1: overall migration patterns have been lowered due to the pandemic 450 00:27:33,520 --> 00:27:36,040 Speaker 1: There hasn't been as much mobility nationally as well as 451 00:27:36,080 --> 00:27:39,920 Speaker 1: globally in the most recent two year periods. All right, Aaron, 452 00:27:39,960 --> 00:27:42,320 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. Really appreciate getting 453 00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:45,600 Speaker 1: your thoughts here. Aaron Jodka, National director of Capital Markets 454 00:27:45,600 --> 00:27:52,719 Speaker 1: Research at Collier's, Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. 455 00:27:53,119 --> 00:27:56,320 Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews of Apple podcasts 456 00:27:56,440 --> 00:28:00,360 Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm 457 00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:03,760 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three and on 458 00:28:03,880 --> 00:28:06,320 Speaker 1: false Sweeney. I'm on Twitter at p T Sweeney Before 459 00:28:06,359 --> 00:28:09,480 Speaker 1: the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.