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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just mount that action.

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Speaker 1: All right.

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Speaker 3: Here we go from the test were throwing in song

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Speaker 3: spect I'm saying it's a cash to stop.

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Speaker 2: That's all we see most gamble is when they go

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Speaker 2: to gamble, they go to win. God, that's incredible.

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Speaker 3: Being bank small banks, I like to make money.

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Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate kaba you want to

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Speaker 2: pass and we are under way.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I am your host,

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Speaker 3: Evan Abrams, and I am joined as always by the one,

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Speaker 3: the only, Brandon Anderson for some best bets for Super

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Speaker 3: Bowl fifty nine.

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Speaker 2: We have made it.

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Speaker 3: Brandon, what's going on?

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Speaker 1: Talk to me, man, I mean, this is it. This

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Speaker 1: is the one, one game one best bets. Give me

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Speaker 1: a two minute showing around here thing. I got thirty

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Speaker 1: three best bets. Literally, they're all coming at you. We're

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Speaker 1: excited for Super Bowl parties watching the game. I know

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Speaker 1: we got to watch this one already a couple of

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Speaker 1: years ago, and I know people seem not excited about it.

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Speaker 2: I'm excited.

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Speaker 1: These are two really good teams. This ifsing matchup. There's

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Speaker 1: a lot to talk about today.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, a ton to talk about. But first first, we're

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Speaker 3: going to get the two trends that I really like

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Speaker 3: here that I think set up this game nicely, and

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Speaker 3: then we're going to roll into Brandon's best bets, But

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Speaker 3: first talk about the game. Some trends kind of set

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Speaker 3: up the stage here a little bit, so I'll start

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Speaker 3: off here brand and then you can kind of react.

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Speaker 3: And I thought this one was just kind of fascinating

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Speaker 3: because because Mahomes has trailed at the half in all

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Speaker 3: four of his Super Bowls. But initially, I think this

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Speaker 3: stat is actually pertinent, especially to this season. So when

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Speaker 3: the Chiefs lead early, they're tough to beat. So Casey

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Speaker 3: is actually sixty four and seven straight up ninety percent

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Speaker 3: since twenty eighteen leading after the first quarter, best win

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Speaker 3: percentage of any team in the NFL. Not too much

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Speaker 3: of a shocker. I mean, they have the best win percentage.

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Speaker 3: They win every game anyway, So now telling you something

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Speaker 3: you don't know. But over the last three seasons, they

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Speaker 3: are twenty nine to oh straight up when leading after

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Speaker 3: the first quarter. Their last loss actually came against the

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Speaker 3: Bengals twenty twenty two Conference championship game. Same stat. Eagles

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Speaker 3: are twenty to ten under Sirianni after leading after the

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Speaker 3: first quarter. But twenty nine to zero is just fancy

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Speaker 3: and I love it when it's zero, so I had

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Speaker 3: to bring it up, and then I'll give you the

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Speaker 3: second one. Here. We've heard a trillion Patrick Mahomes stats.

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Speaker 3: I feel like this one is just interesting because of

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Speaker 3: the defense that he's going against. And this is strictly

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Speaker 3: from Bett Labs, which is also a nice little plug.

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Speaker 3: But Mahomes has faced a pass defense allowing two hundred

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Speaker 3: yards or less twenty six times in his career. He

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Speaker 3: is twenty three and three straight up in those games.

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Speaker 3: He's won twelve straight straight up, obviously, and he's actually

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Speaker 3: twelve and oh straight up in November or later in

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Speaker 3: that spot, which to me is actually way more impressive

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Speaker 3: and important because when we talk about defense, is two

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Speaker 3: hundred yards to less, like those are mature defenses at

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Speaker 3: November or later allowing two hundred yards or list versus

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Speaker 3: a team two or three games into September. So any

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Speaker 3: thoughts off of that before I go into two or

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Speaker 3: three topics that I'll let you kind of chime in

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Speaker 3: on before we get into your best bets.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, Patrick Mahomes is the grim Reaper at

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Speaker 1: this plan right, like the meme where it's just like

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Speaker 1: standing by each door and it's like the names of

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Speaker 1: the AFC teams, the names of the NFC Super Bowl teams,

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Speaker 1: and just Patrick Mahomes coming for another guy here. I

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Speaker 1: think two of the first quarter things especially interesting because

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Speaker 1: we talked about this a lot all season long. The

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Speaker 1: Eagles worst quarter all season has been the first quarter.

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Speaker 1: They were a team that took into i think week

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Speaker 1: thirteen or something to score in the first quarter, and

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Speaker 1: they did get a little better late, but that still

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Speaker 1: is a lot of data that did not go out

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Speaker 1: for them defensively. Also, the first quarter has been their

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Speaker 1: worst quarter, so it's very interesting. The last time these

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Speaker 1: teams played, I really like Eagles first half in part

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Speaker 1: because if the Eagles were going to have a good shot,

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Speaker 1: they needed to get on the front foot. They were

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Speaker 1: really good first team two years ago. This year there's

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Speaker 1: still a pretty good first half ATS team, but it's

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Speaker 1: not been the first quarter. It's been big second quarters,

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Speaker 1: which has been the case with both the seasons. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: it is really interesting to see. Okay, you know it's

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Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. Folks are gonna play the coin tops.

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Speaker 1: They're gonna play who gets the ball first? All the

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Speaker 1: first touchdown bets? Well, will the Eagles perhaps want the

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Speaker 1: ball first? And maybe you want to try to get

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Speaker 1: on the board and get out to an early lead,

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Speaker 1: be able to control the script a little bit more.

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Speaker 1: Is that a thing that they would do? And can

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Speaker 1: they get a bit of an early lead? I have

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Speaker 1: just to give a full of spoiler here, a spoiler

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Speaker 1: at tease. My last bet of thirty three bets on

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Speaker 1: the entire podcast today will come right back to the

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Speaker 1: stat at the very end today.

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Speaker 3: All right, Well, before we get to you a thousand bets,

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Speaker 3: let's just go through these three questions. So these are

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Speaker 3: just fun questions off the game. So I want you

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Speaker 3: to pick the player that makes the play that impacts

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Speaker 3: the game that isn't a top stud. Who will we

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Speaker 3: be talking about on Monday morning. I'll let you go first.

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Speaker 2: So I'm gonna give you three names here.

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Speaker 1: Two of them are negative names because the two guys

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Speaker 1: I'm worried about are offensive linemen. I'm a little worried

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Speaker 1: about on the Eagles. Landon Dickerson, really good player, but

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Speaker 1: clearly not healthy, and it's going to play. We know

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Speaker 1: that he's basically I think he had to quote where

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Speaker 1: he said he had to come off a stretcher if

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Speaker 1: he was going to not finish the game. But he

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Speaker 1: didn't get to play a lot of the last game.

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Speaker 1: And the Eagles offensive line is the key strength that

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Speaker 1: opens everything up. And if he goes out, now you're

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Speaker 1: like moving the center around possibly and now your snap

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Speaker 1: count is off. Like that can really mess up a

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Speaker 1: lot of things, especially with Chris Jones, the star on

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Speaker 1: the other side, right across from the middle, so him

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Speaker 1: on that side. The other side Chiefs left guard Mike

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Speaker 1: kell Yendo, the name that you really don't want to

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Speaker 1: hear about because he's effectively the left tackle solution kind

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Speaker 1: of because we finally moved Joe Tooney from left guard

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Speaker 1: to left tackle. But then that solved that problem somewhat.

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Speaker 1: He's been fine. He's been pretty good over there, nothing great,

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Speaker 1: but much better than their options. But now you have

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Speaker 1: a left guard problem. And frankly, Tray Smith the right

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Speaker 1: guard has been not quite as good as he usually

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Speaker 1: has been.

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Speaker 2: And now you have Jalen Carter on the other side.

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Speaker 2: So you have those two stud d tackles.

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Speaker 1: We know those names, but will we hear names of

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Speaker 1: offensive linemen. You don't want to hear those That usually

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Speaker 1: means a mistake or a penalty or something like that.

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Speaker 1: And then the other one too a positive name. This

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Speaker 1: is just a gut feeling. I just really like Leo Chanal,

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Speaker 1: the linebacker. Young guy for the Chiefs, just seems to

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Speaker 1: show up in the right spot or make the big play.

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Speaker 1: And I know he's not even lesser out there a

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Speaker 1: ton of the snaps, but I just kind of have

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Speaker 1: my eye on him on this team. He seems to

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Speaker 1: be of an X factor for me.

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Speaker 2: Who do you like?

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Speaker 3: Kelly Endo is definitely the negative side. If I would

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Speaker 3: have taken that side, that would have been my pick.

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Speaker 3: I can't cheat because if I was cheating, I'd say

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Speaker 3: DeVonta Smith and he's not an option. So some JP

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Speaker 3: run somemo JP run to me is an interesting pass

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Speaker 3: back factor in this game when Casey's trying to figure

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Speaker 3: it out. I'll take this from mister Gollant or can

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Speaker 3: friend who works for us at the Action Network. And

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Speaker 3: each of the Chiefs three Super Bowl wins, four Chiefs

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Speaker 3: one in each game has scored plus five hundred or higher. Now,

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Speaker 3: it could be a bunch of people. I just think

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Speaker 3: p Ryan's an interesting one. All right, Next question, what's

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Speaker 3: the first thing you dove into for the matchup on

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Speaker 3: Sunday night? Honestly, this is just something I was curious, like,

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Speaker 3: what was the first thing you saw Eagles? If you

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Speaker 3: saw Chiefs? What did you want to know right off

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Speaker 3: the bat?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I think the main thing is the

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Speaker 1: thing that we kind of all know, So no real

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Speaker 1: surprise here, But how does that Chiefs run defense stack up?

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Speaker 1: How much can they slow down Saquon Barkley that offensive line?

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Speaker 1: Obviously they're going to get theirs. The Eagles are going

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Speaker 1: to run the ball. Saquon's going to get some yardage.

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Speaker 1: We'll get to all that stuff in a while. But

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Speaker 1: can the Chiefs not get rid of it? They're not

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Speaker 1: going to get rid of the run game, but can

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Speaker 1: they limit it? Can they make Jalen Hurts have to

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Speaker 1: go Hurts versus Mahomes? To me, how much could the

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Speaker 1: Chiefs slow down the run game was the key thing

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Speaker 1: I looked at, and I have pretty big angle coming

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Speaker 1: up for that one. What was your first matchup you

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Speaker 1: looked at?

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Speaker 3: I mean, not even matchup, I mean, to me, most

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Speaker 3: the way I took this question was. I just really

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Speaker 3: looked at the roster changes between the two Super Bowls,

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Speaker 3: so like when I wanted to grade out each player

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Speaker 3: and kind of update them based off of this game.

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Speaker 3: I literally on Sunday night just took both of their

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Speaker 3: rosters in two separate columns and started doing some color

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Speaker 3: coding to just be like, Okay, who's the difference, So like,

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Speaker 3: what can I feel like matters in the first matchup

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Speaker 3: that kind of doesn't matter here or vice versa. So

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Speaker 3: that that that was the way I at least attacked

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Speaker 3: it on Sunday night before our pod. In terms of

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Speaker 3: the matchup, it's Chiefs offensive line. I think it's the

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Speaker 3: biggest thing in the game. I mean, Mahomes and we'll

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Speaker 3: talk about this more. It gets the ball out super quick.

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Speaker 3: It could negate some of their issues, which has for

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Speaker 3: a while. But to me, that's the biggest matchup, all right.

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Speaker 3: And then just for a fun one best and worst

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Speaker 3: super Bowl snack and food, I'll let you go first

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Speaker 3: and then I'll follow up before we get.

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Speaker 2: To the gat.

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Speaker 1: Now we're talking, I got super Bowl snacks. My favorite

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Speaker 1: is I make like a cheesy, cheesy bean dep sort

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Speaker 1: of thing with chips, like like a nacho sort of thing,

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Speaker 1: like the hormale chili, the belveted cheese that hole makes,

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Speaker 1: throwing some some tomatoes, that sort of stuff. So I

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Speaker 1: love that and otherwise just kind of the classic stuff,

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Speaker 1: you know, good slice of pizza, nachos, any of that

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Speaker 1: sort of thing. Worst Super Bowl snack like, to me, conceptually,

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Speaker 1: the worst snack is the one that was one too many,

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Speaker 1: like whether it's either you've got a dietary restriction something

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Speaker 1: or other and you're like, well, just no, no, no,

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Speaker 1: You're gonna watch the game, like you can't be feeling

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Speaker 1: crappy by the end of the game. This is we

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Speaker 1: know it's gonna come down close late based on the

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Speaker 1: line and everything else. So to me, the worst snack

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Speaker 1: is the one that's gonna give you some issues and

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Speaker 1: send you to the restroom when you need to be

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Speaker 1: watching the game and the commercials later.

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Speaker 3: I love that you had to kind of break it

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Speaker 3: down like that, because that's just how you break down bets.

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Speaker 3: It's is the exact same thing. My winners are boneless

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Speaker 3: wings and pigs in a blanket. I think they're awesome

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Speaker 3: and fun. And PJ Walsh, who obviously works here and

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Speaker 3: rights for us. The Action Network tweeted this out. I

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Speaker 3: told him congratulations because he was right. The worst snack

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Speaker 3: is double decks. I'm sorry, I just absolutely don't see it.

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Speaker 3: Consistency for me is key and food. Show me a

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Speaker 3: cracker or something like, put it on something. It's just

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Speaker 3: it's not for me. The stage is set for Super

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Speaker 3: Bowl fifty nine and the many prop bets to come.

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Speaker 3: episodes with Chris Raybond, Sean Kerner, Nick Giffin, and Moore.

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Speaker 2: Go back in the.

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Speaker 3: Podcast feed and check those out. Plus, we've got a

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Speaker 3: great bonus episode on Deck where Chadmilman will be speaking

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Speaker 3: with the head of trading at Caesars. That'll be available

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Speaker 3: on Friday right here on the Action Network podcast, So

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Speaker 3: please keep an eye out for that. Got so much

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Speaker 3: fun content from us. But let's get let's get rolling

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Speaker 3: into this. It's best bets time. This is your best bet,

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Speaker 3: so time to get your best bets on the game.

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Speaker 3: I want you to kick it off, but first I

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Speaker 3: want to tell you this. If you want to tail

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Speaker 3: some of these bets, we have quick slip links in

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Speaker 3: the podcast and video description for you. So go to

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Speaker 3: Actionnework dot com slash bet now. I'll say that again,

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Speaker 3: Actionnework dot Com slash bet now, and it lists, literally

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Speaker 3: with hyperlinks, all of Brandon Betts, Brandon's bets and everybody

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Speaker 3: who makes bets on a daily basis. So great utility,

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Speaker 3: great resource. Actionnework dot Com slash bet now. So let's

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Speaker 3: start it off. Give me your best bet either on

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Speaker 3: the game or total. You know, set the table for us. Brandon,

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Speaker 3: I like the Chiefs.

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Speaker 1: I got the Chiefs. Sure you knew we're headed that direction.

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Speaker 1: You probably knew we're headed that direction. This based on

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Speaker 1: how I've backed Patrick Mahomes in the past. So to me,

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Speaker 1: we kind of talked about already. What was the first

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Speaker 1: matchup I looked at, and to me, at Philadelphia's offense

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Speaker 1: on the field is the first matchup because that right now,

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Speaker 1: I think is the weakest unit of the four offense defenses.

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Speaker 1: On the other side, okay, we kind of know what

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Speaker 1: Fangio is probably gonna do. Is gonna take away the

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Speaker 1: deep ball, is gonna take away the middle of the field,

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Speaker 1: force you to play short.

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Speaker 2: That's pretty much what the Chiefs want to do. Anyways,

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Speaker 2: I think we're.

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Speaker 1: Getting a pretty past heavy script, lots of worthy in

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Speaker 1: the flats, lots of Travis Kelcey underneath. We'll get to

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Speaker 1: some of that stuff in my props later. To me,

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Speaker 1: the Philly offense is what I'm looking at, especially because

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Speaker 1: this team, even though we're now twenty games into the season,

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Speaker 1: for them, only played four games all year against a

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Speaker 1: top twelve DVOA defense. That is a very untested offense

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Speaker 1: and an offense that we've not totally trusted at times

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Speaker 1: in the playoffs, mostly because of Jalen Hurts. So I

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Speaker 1: mentioned the run game. I started there Kansas City run defense,

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Speaker 1: though it has gotten a little bit worse late in

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Speaker 1: the season. On the year, top eight yards per carry,

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Speaker 1: yards per game, yards before contact, top three yards after contact,

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Speaker 1: and importantly top three explosive run rate allowed. Defensively, both

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Speaker 1: of these run defense are really good. The Eagles run

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Speaker 1: defense is great. The Chiefs aren't going to run the ball.

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Speaker 1: That's like not even part of the story here. Mahomes

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Speaker 1: will pass whatever doesn't matter. Explosives matter a lot for

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Speaker 1: this Eagles team. Even as good as Saguon Barkley has

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Speaker 1: been in the playoffs. You don't get to just take

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Speaker 1: away two or three of the carries each game. Those

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Speaker 1: carries count. But if you take those two or three away,

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Speaker 1: suddenly as yards per carries, like yeah, three yards of

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Speaker 1: carry twenty times plus a forty to sixty to eighty Okay,

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Speaker 1: turns out that works pretty well. But if you can

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Speaker 1: take away those forty sixteen eighty or maybe cut them

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Speaker 1: down to tens and twelves, now all those other carries

305
00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:10,520
Speaker 1: are actually not very successful plays. Like talk about EPA

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Speaker 1: versus success rate. That's a big difference here. The Chiefs

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Speaker 1: have not allowed a one hundred yard rusher eighteen playoff

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Speaker 1: games in a row. They did not allow a running

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Speaker 1: back hundred yard rusher all you're only Lamar Jackson did

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Speaker 1: it back in Week one.

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Speaker 2: So if the Eagles can't just play Eagles.

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Speaker 1: Offense and run the ball and win the way they

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Speaker 1: have against a better defense, now it shifts to Mahomes

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Speaker 1: versus Hurts, And that's the way we're going to frame

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Speaker 1: it because it's quarterbacks.

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Speaker 2: That's what we have to do.

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Speaker 1: But to me, now it shifts to Steve Spagnello versus

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Speaker 1: Hurts where you had the extra week of prep. Spagnello

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Speaker 1: has been so good for his career in these one

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Speaker 1: off games, even back before all this, back with the Giants,

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Speaker 1: the one off games over there now here with extra

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Speaker 1: toun of prep four her. It's a guy that typically

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Speaker 1: rolls to his right. That's gonna matter in this game.

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Speaker 1: The Chiefs defense pass defense has been actually pretty bad

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Speaker 1: on the left side on the season, but I think

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Speaker 1: that rolling to the right a lot by pattern sets

327
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Speaker 1: up a protection there and it can set up targeted

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Speaker 1: attacks on the blitz from Spagnolo. Hurts win of pressure

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Speaker 1: this season bottom six of all quarterbacks in success rate

330
00:15:19,120 --> 00:15:22,200
Speaker 1: EPA yards for sackra Like he has not done well

331
00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:25,560
Speaker 1: against pressure, he's not done well against the blitz. He

332
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Speaker 1: also has been great this season against man. The Chiefs

333
00:15:28,880 --> 00:15:32,960
Speaker 1: typically play more man coverage, Trent McDuffie especially, but I

334
00:15:33,160 --> 00:15:35,560
Speaker 1: think given more time to prep, I think we're gonna

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00:15:35,560 --> 00:15:38,040
Speaker 1: see a little more zone here because Hurts is below

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00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:41,080
Speaker 1: average against the zone, and we're gonna see Spags kind

337
00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:43,920
Speaker 1: of mixing things up, throwing things at Jalen Hurts, saying

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Speaker 1: you know what, if Jalen Hurts beats Patrick Mahomes, I

339
00:15:47,760 --> 00:15:49,840
Speaker 1: can live with that. If that's how we lose the

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl, I can live with that outcome. And I

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Speaker 1: think the Eagles we've only seen since their bye week

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Speaker 1: back in I think Week five, they've only trailed for

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Speaker 1: four minutes in the fourth quarter at any point of

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00:16:02,320 --> 00:16:05,480
Speaker 1: that entire stretch. What happens when they're trailing here, what

345
00:16:05,600 --> 00:16:07,280
Speaker 1: happens in a negative game script?

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Speaker 2: And it comes down to this.

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Speaker 1: For me, even if it's close late, either Patrick has

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Speaker 1: the ball and I like the Chiefs or Jalen Hurts

349
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Speaker 1: has the ball, and I like the Chiefs, And we've

350
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Speaker 1: talked about this on the Favorites pod. We are on together,

351
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Speaker 1: like could you bet Eagles first half or Egals first

352
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Speaker 1: fifty eight minutes or something like that while the game

353
00:16:27,920 --> 00:16:30,520
Speaker 1: is sixty or more if it goes over time And

354
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Speaker 1: I'm just gonna like Mahomes at the end if it

355
00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:35,360
Speaker 1: needs to, and I'm not necessarily sure it's going to

356
00:16:35,440 --> 00:16:37,400
Speaker 1: need to at the end. Some of the stats, some

357
00:16:37,480 --> 00:16:40,000
Speaker 1: of these are even in your article. Mahomes as a

358
00:16:40,040 --> 00:16:42,680
Speaker 1: three point favorite or worse in his career twenty eight

359
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Speaker 1: nine and one against the spread, seventy six percent cover

360
00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:48,680
Speaker 1: rate when it's under three in the playoffs, eight and

361
00:16:48,800 --> 00:16:52,920
Speaker 1: oh ats and straight up just invincible in the spot,

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00:16:53,080 --> 00:16:56,080
Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts not so good away from home in the playoffs.

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Speaker 1: And you read with thirteen days of rest or more

364
00:16:59,680 --> 00:17:02,440
Speaker 1: with you either Mahomes or Donovan McNabb twenty nine.

365
00:17:02,280 --> 00:17:04,080
Speaker 2: And three for his career.

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Speaker 1: And then I know some books have Chiefs minus one,

367
00:17:08,520 --> 00:17:10,960
Speaker 1: some have Chiefs minus one and a half. Obviously, get

368
00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:13,159
Speaker 1: the best number that you can. But you have the

369
00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:15,399
Speaker 1: stat in your articles super Bowl winners when the spread

370
00:17:15,480 --> 00:17:18,280
Speaker 1: is four or less twenty three to zero against the spread,

371
00:17:18,440 --> 00:17:20,960
Speaker 1: So I don't think you fret about the extra half

372
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Speaker 1: a point here. You just take the Chiefs Chiefs minus

373
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Speaker 1: one one and a half if you need to. There's

374
00:17:25,680 --> 00:17:28,159
Speaker 1: a quick stup for that one and a little bonus

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Speaker 1: Chiefs angle.

376
00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:29,000
Speaker 3: Here.

377
00:17:29,680 --> 00:17:31,600
Speaker 1: My favorite new way to bet the Chiefs. We did

378
00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:34,040
Speaker 1: this in the Bills game last time. Chiefs to win

379
00:17:34,119 --> 00:17:38,160
Speaker 1: from behind. It's plus one seventy five. Mahomes, we've seen

380
00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:40,600
Speaker 1: all the stats. We know you'll need the stats in

381
00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:45,000
Speaker 1: the fourth quarter when he's trailing late. Man just invincible.

382
00:17:45,080 --> 00:17:49,880
Speaker 1: There nine games in the playoffs, six wins, two overtime losses.

383
00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:52,600
Speaker 1: He scored on thirteen out of fourteen drives in that spot.

384
00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:56,920
Speaker 1: Mahomes has played twenty playoff games. He has a comeback

385
00:17:57,080 --> 00:18:00,360
Speaker 1: win in half of them. So take out the three

386
00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:02,760
Speaker 1: losses when you don't get credit for the win obviously.

387
00:18:03,400 --> 00:18:06,520
Speaker 1: Ten of seventeen mahomes playoff wins have been come from

388
00:18:06,560 --> 00:18:10,200
Speaker 1: behind wins fifty nine percent, including all three Super Bowls.

389
00:18:10,640 --> 00:18:13,840
Speaker 1: Chiefs to win from behind plus one seventy five. You're

390
00:18:13,880 --> 00:18:15,679
Speaker 1: not gonna get the one live in game even if

391
00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:17,399
Speaker 1: they fall behind they're not giving us a plus one

392
00:18:17,440 --> 00:18:20,280
Speaker 1: seventy five unless he's down like ten fourteen points. So

393
00:18:20,800 --> 00:18:23,520
Speaker 1: give me the Chiefs, give me Patrick Mahomes, give me

394
00:18:23,520 --> 00:18:25,679
Speaker 1: the Chiefs to win from behind plus one seventy five.

395
00:18:26,400 --> 00:18:29,000
Speaker 3: All right, So I'll attack this a few different ways.

396
00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:32,080
Speaker 3: A lot of us at the Action Network liked Philly

397
00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:35,159
Speaker 3: first half, which was plus one and a half a

398
00:18:35,240 --> 00:18:37,879
Speaker 3: little while ago, now actually down to a half. And

399
00:18:37,960 --> 00:18:40,920
Speaker 3: there's even one book that's actually made Philly the favorite

400
00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:43,199
Speaker 3: in the first half and kind of kept them as

401
00:18:43,200 --> 00:18:46,359
Speaker 3: the underdog for the full game, which says literally so

402
00:18:46,600 --> 00:18:48,800
Speaker 3: much about the fifty eight minute line you just said

403
00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:51,520
Speaker 3: in terms of the money line. But I'll take another

404
00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:54,040
Speaker 3: angle at this, and I'll be honest, I did sprinkle

405
00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:57,400
Speaker 3: on the other side, but come from behind angle is good.

406
00:18:57,800 --> 00:19:00,880
Speaker 3: So I took Casey first half Philly f game. It's

407
00:19:00,880 --> 00:19:04,760
Speaker 3: about eight to one. I could completely understand taking the

408
00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:06,640
Speaker 3: other side of it, which would be Philly first half,

409
00:19:06,760 --> 00:19:09,440
Speaker 3: Casey full game, that's like six to one. But the

410
00:19:09,560 --> 00:19:12,200
Speaker 3: case for my bet, which would be Mahomes has trailed

411
00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:14,359
Speaker 3: again at the half and all four Super Bowls, I

412
00:19:14,480 --> 00:19:16,040
Speaker 3: kind of feel like that's a little bit of noise.

413
00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:18,840
Speaker 3: I mean, he's led at the half in eight straight

414
00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:22,920
Speaker 3: games this year. To me, the comeback and all those

415
00:19:23,000 --> 00:19:25,200
Speaker 3: half games which he's had to do, this is a

416
00:19:25,280 --> 00:19:27,679
Speaker 3: bit of a different team. I also feel like Philly

417
00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:29,720
Speaker 3: is a bit of a different game. I feel like

418
00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:32,000
Speaker 3: one point this way, three points that way. I feel

419
00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:35,440
Speaker 3: like Casey could easily be up a small margin in

420
00:19:35,480 --> 00:19:39,160
Speaker 3: this game. And it's also not like Philly and this team.

421
00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:42,000
Speaker 3: The important parts of this team hasn't been haven't been

422
00:19:42,040 --> 00:19:44,480
Speaker 3: to the super Bowl before, and haven't experienced this, which

423
00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:47,000
Speaker 3: you know, I think says a lot about poison this one.

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00:19:47,920 --> 00:19:51,040
Speaker 3: So I will stick with that bet. And I also

425
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Speaker 3: will say this when Philly's trailing, which actually in total

426
00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:57,640
Speaker 3: plays this year is less than Kansas City, they run

427
00:19:57,760 --> 00:20:01,000
Speaker 3: no huddle at the second highest rate the Commanders, which

428
00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:04,080
Speaker 3: literally was a machine gun offense, and they run the

429
00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:06,760
Speaker 3: ball at the highest rate in the NFL. So to me,

430
00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:09,080
Speaker 3: getting back into the game if you're down a few

431
00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:11,640
Speaker 3: points isn't going to be difficult. And it's also gonna

432
00:20:11,640 --> 00:20:14,320
Speaker 3: bleed clock, which I kind of think helps this, which

433
00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:16,840
Speaker 3: less time back and forth. So that was my bet

434
00:20:16,920 --> 00:20:19,560
Speaker 3: on the situation. I think it's a really fifty to

435
00:20:19,560 --> 00:20:22,440
Speaker 3: fifty spot, but I do feel like you're kind of

436
00:20:22,480 --> 00:20:24,960
Speaker 3: getting going to get a back and forth game and

437
00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:28,160
Speaker 3: maybe even a slower start. So that's my found there

438
00:20:28,240 --> 00:20:29,720
Speaker 3: before Yeah, you go, Yeah.

439
00:20:29,880 --> 00:20:31,640
Speaker 1: I think when it is a fifty to fifty game

440
00:20:31,840 --> 00:20:33,360
Speaker 1: like this, and you see this for me, a lot

441
00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:36,080
Speaker 1: of times, when the line is minus one minus two

442
00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:38,800
Speaker 1: is somewhere in this range, it's it's a good spot

443
00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:41,080
Speaker 1: to maybe get creative with your bet. And that's why

444
00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:43,119
Speaker 1: I don't mind. I think that's why I like probably

445
00:20:43,200 --> 00:20:45,320
Speaker 1: better the Chiefs to win from behind plus one seventy

446
00:20:45,359 --> 00:20:48,040
Speaker 1: five more than the minus one because it's like, Okay,

447
00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:50,879
Speaker 1: how can I sacrifice some house? If the Chiefs just

448
00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:53,040
Speaker 1: dominate all the way, I'm gonna lose that one because

449
00:20:53,080 --> 00:20:56,120
Speaker 1: they never trailed in that game. But historically the Chiefs

450
00:20:56,160 --> 00:20:58,080
Speaker 1: are trailing a lot in these games. Heck, they could

451
00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:00,760
Speaker 1: just trail on the very first possession, give up a

452
00:21:00,840 --> 00:21:03,400
Speaker 1: field goal, and then come out and blow the doors

453
00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:05,400
Speaker 1: off after that and you still win the bat That's

454
00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:07,439
Speaker 1: how they've won some of these quote come from behind win.

455
00:21:07,680 --> 00:21:10,639
Speaker 1: So I think when it is this close, when we

456
00:21:10,720 --> 00:21:12,720
Speaker 1: all agree it's this close, and when the books agree,

457
00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:17,080
Speaker 1: it's this close finding a way to do the halftime

458
00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:19,240
Speaker 1: full time bet or did they come from behind or

459
00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:21,560
Speaker 1: something with the juiced odds and there, I think makes sense.

460
00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:24,480
Speaker 1: I don't have a total play on this game. I

461
00:21:24,560 --> 00:21:27,480
Speaker 1: would lean under just because of what you said. I

462
00:21:27,560 --> 00:21:29,359
Speaker 1: think this is gonna be a fast super Bowl. I

463
00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:32,560
Speaker 1: think we're gonna get ten play drives, fourteen play drives,

464
00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:36,280
Speaker 1: like long running drives, long short passing drives in the

465
00:21:36,359 --> 00:21:39,359
Speaker 1: Chiefs case. I think both of these teams could really

466
00:21:39,480 --> 00:21:41,639
Speaker 1: chew the clock up if the offenses kind of get

467
00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:45,240
Speaker 1: moving some fourth down conversions so we get those long drives.

468
00:21:45,840 --> 00:21:49,200
Speaker 1: To me, that makes me think under, even though that

469
00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:51,360
Speaker 1: there's not really a strong trend to play on either

470
00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:53,880
Speaker 1: side here that I spotted. Did you end up having

471
00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:55,639
Speaker 1: a total play on this game or a lean at all?

472
00:21:56,440 --> 00:21:58,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean initially forty nine and a half was tasty.

473
00:21:58,880 --> 00:22:00,400
Speaker 3: Down to forty eight and a half, I think we're

474
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:03,000
Speaker 3: just right in range. I mean we did a final

475
00:22:03,119 --> 00:22:05,480
Speaker 3: score prediction, which the article will come out, and maybe

476
00:22:05,520 --> 00:22:08,280
Speaker 3: I'm giving away my pick, but I said Philly twenty

477
00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:10,760
Speaker 3: five twenty two, like I feel like it'll be in

478
00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:13,879
Speaker 3: that range. I think the two point conversion is something

479
00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:17,720
Speaker 3: that is almost automatic from the Philly side, especially fourth downs,

480
00:22:17,760 --> 00:22:19,600
Speaker 3: like all sorts of variance, which is why I picked

481
00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:20,320
Speaker 3: a weird score.

482
00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:21,639
Speaker 2: But I agree with you.

483
00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:26,200
Speaker 3: I mean, I think slower starts, longer drives. Maybe I

484
00:22:26,320 --> 00:22:28,000
Speaker 3: was looking for this prop, how about half time to

485
00:22:28,080 --> 00:22:30,040
Speaker 3: be longer than the game itself? Half of a joke,

486
00:22:30,160 --> 00:22:32,679
Speaker 3: but I mean that's kind of the direction I think

487
00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:35,639
Speaker 3: we're headed here. But let's keep going here. So rushing

488
00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:38,600
Speaker 3: props in your line here, and I'm just going to

489
00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:40,880
Speaker 3: quote it before I toss it to you, is why

490
00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:43,760
Speaker 3: the books have the rushing props all wrong. So take

491
00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:44,240
Speaker 3: it from there.

492
00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:46,959
Speaker 1: Yeah, So I think this ends up being a lot

493
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:49,600
Speaker 1: more of a passing game than folks are expecting right now.

494
00:22:50,280 --> 00:22:52,320
Speaker 1: I think the run props end up very wrong if

495
00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:55,560
Speaker 1: I'm right about that. Sakuon's lines obviously are basically their

496
00:22:55,600 --> 00:22:58,560
Speaker 1: expectation for Sakuon right now is twenty two carries for

497
00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:01,800
Speaker 1: one hundred and thirteen yards. That's a really big game,

498
00:23:02,080 --> 00:23:04,480
Speaker 1: Like you talked about that with just running backs hitting

499
00:23:04,480 --> 00:23:06,359
Speaker 1: one hundred yards in the Super Bowl and when we

500
00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:09,960
Speaker 1: did this podcast before and frankly against the Chiefs, they're

501
00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:12,400
Speaker 1: the third lowest yards per game to running backs, only

502
00:23:12,520 --> 00:23:15,119
Speaker 1: seventy yards a game two running backs on the season.

503
00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:17,840
Speaker 1: They did not allow a sixty yard running back until

504
00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:21,280
Speaker 1: Week thirteen this season, they only had four all season.

505
00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:24,520
Speaker 1: They did not allow any running back more than sixteen

506
00:23:24,600 --> 00:23:27,440
Speaker 1: carries all season until Mixon did it in the playoffs.

507
00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:30,040
Speaker 1: He only was at eighteen, So that rushing attempts line

508
00:23:30,119 --> 00:23:32,719
Speaker 1: is still like three four attempts above they've ever had

509
00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:36,000
Speaker 1: all season. And I just think too, you can do

510
00:23:36,240 --> 00:23:39,640
Speaker 1: like run blitz, you can cater your defense toward We're

511
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:41,560
Speaker 1: not going to let you beat us just by running

512
00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:44,159
Speaker 1: the football. And I just have to expect Spags is

513
00:23:44,200 --> 00:23:46,680
Speaker 1: going to find a way to say, Jalen, You're gonna

514
00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:49,399
Speaker 1: have to do some plays yourself, either as a runner

515
00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:51,320
Speaker 1: somewhat or at least as a passer.

516
00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:54,080
Speaker 2: And I think Chiefs are't gonna run much either.

517
00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:56,119
Speaker 1: I said that either you can bet no player to

518
00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:58,960
Speaker 1: have one hundred rushing yards plus two ten. That's basically

519
00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:01,199
Speaker 1: just a Saquon faise, Like nobody else is hitting one

520
00:24:01,280 --> 00:24:03,480
Speaker 1: hundred yards. But you're getting a little bit better juice

521
00:24:03,520 --> 00:24:05,600
Speaker 1: on that one. But to me, and this leads into

522
00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:08,520
Speaker 1: my first bet here, So I was like, Okay, I

523
00:24:08,640 --> 00:24:11,240
Speaker 1: kind of like Saquons under on the attempts. I kind

524
00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:12,920
Speaker 1: of like underund the yards.

525
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:13,879
Speaker 2: But why is it?

526
00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:16,680
Speaker 1: Like, what do I think specifically is not going to

527
00:24:16,760 --> 00:24:20,239
Speaker 1: happen here? And I ended up shockingly, I don't even

528
00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:22,280
Speaker 1: know if I played this type of prop all season.

529
00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:25,479
Speaker 1: I have three longest rush props here to give out,

530
00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:27,639
Speaker 1: so I'm gonna give one, and I think you actually

531
00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:29,320
Speaker 1: have an angle on al at your respond, and I'll

532
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:32,560
Speaker 1: go to the other two. So I like Saquons under

533
00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:35,199
Speaker 1: on the longest rush under twenty five and a half and.

534
00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:36,040
Speaker 2: Is still out there.

535
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:40,560
Speaker 1: The Chiefs this season only allowed six rushes all year

536
00:24:41,119 --> 00:24:44,000
Speaker 1: over twenty five and a half yards. They only allowed

537
00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:47,720
Speaker 1: two over twenty eight, so that's you know, that doesn't count.

538
00:24:47,720 --> 00:24:49,520
Speaker 1: If you hit a twenty seven, we're still over here.

539
00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 1: But just showing like they are not giving up these

540
00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:55,480
Speaker 1: huge along plays. Of those six long runs, twenty six

541
00:24:55,640 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 1: or more. Three of them were quarterbacks, so they're not

542
00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:03,000
Speaker 1: allowing he huge running back runs. Saquon is eating on

543
00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:06,040
Speaker 1: these long runs, but he has so far the season

544
00:25:06,119 --> 00:25:08,359
Speaker 1: thirteen runs over this number. So it's like, oh, they

545
00:25:08,720 --> 00:25:10,959
Speaker 1: thirteen out of twenty. That's pretty good. I actually take

546
00:25:10,960 --> 00:25:11,440
Speaker 1: the over No.

547
00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:11,720
Speaker 3: No. No.

548
00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:16,679
Speaker 1: Ten of those thirteen came against the Rams, the Commanders,

549
00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:22,240
Speaker 1: the Giants end of less three really bad run defenses,

550
00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:26,080
Speaker 1: and frankly, we knew he'd kill the Giants. We saw

551
00:25:26,160 --> 00:25:29,480
Speaker 1: hard knocks right, and we saw the Washington We saw

552
00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:32,240
Speaker 1: him get big games game after game. We saw the Rams,

553
00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:35,120
Speaker 1: he had multiple teams against them, had big games. Other

554
00:25:35,240 --> 00:25:38,360
Speaker 1: than those three opponents, he went over this longest rush

555
00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:41,680
Speaker 1: only three times the entire season. He's under this number

556
00:25:41,800 --> 00:25:45,119
Speaker 1: eight of the last thirteen games. So to me, I

557
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:48,920
Speaker 1: would lean under on the attempts because I think that

558
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:51,399
Speaker 1: the Chiefs are ahead and the Eagles are going to

559
00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:53,360
Speaker 1: have to try to pass a little bit. I'd lead

560
00:25:53,520 --> 00:25:55,440
Speaker 1: under on the yards, but I lean under the yards

561
00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:57,480
Speaker 1: because I just don't think he's going to have that

562
00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:01,320
Speaker 1: breakaway seventy yard touchdown this game. To me, I think,

563
00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:04,359
Speaker 1: if you're the Chiefs defense, if you say we're not

564
00:26:04,520 --> 00:26:07,280
Speaker 1: giving you that play of this game, easier said than done.

565
00:26:07,640 --> 00:26:09,560
Speaker 1: But if you can take away those one or two

566
00:26:09,720 --> 00:26:13,400
Speaker 1: huge plays and force Jalen Hurts to matriculate and beat

567
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:16,080
Speaker 1: you that way, you're gonna feel really good. About your chances.

568
00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:18,480
Speaker 1: So I'm leading with us because to me, that sort

569
00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:21,240
Speaker 1: of dictates how I thought about the whole game. Under

570
00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:23,880
Speaker 1: on longest rush, I think you might feel otherwise, where

571
00:26:23,880 --> 00:26:25,400
Speaker 1: are you out on this one? Well?

572
00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 3: No, I mean the two angles I took and I

573
00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:30,040
Speaker 3: use these both on the Favorites pod earlier. And this

574
00:26:30,280 --> 00:26:32,480
Speaker 3: was a strictly a prop from bet through six' five

575
00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:34,920
Speaker 3: that was out there that was sque to have the

576
00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:37,600
Speaker 3: longest rush in the. Game it opened like even it's

577
00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:39,359
Speaker 3: up to like minus one fifty right now if you

578
00:26:39,440 --> 00:26:41,800
Speaker 3: compare to other, books which is like minus three, hundred

579
00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:45,720
Speaker 3: and they're staying, STRONG i still feel like there's that's

580
00:26:45,800 --> 00:26:48,679
Speaker 3: more than, likely not more than likely to, hit especially

581
00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:51,080
Speaker 3: when you consider And i'll talk about this in a little,

582
00:26:51,119 --> 00:26:55,960
Speaker 3: bit But casey's rush offense is very very like small.

583
00:26:56,080 --> 00:26:57,600
Speaker 2: Chucks, yeah so they're.

584
00:26:57,440 --> 00:27:00,119
Speaker 3: Not really going to get in that second level and.

585
00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:02,440
Speaker 3: Field and then on the other, SIDE i mean, Again

586
00:27:02,760 --> 00:27:07,400
Speaker 3: saquon is you, know It's Saquon hurts or mahomes other

587
00:27:07,520 --> 00:27:10,240
Speaker 3: than that to break down that. Market so that's one

588
00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:13,040
Speaker 3: prop the PROP i actually, like which is a huge

589
00:27:13,080 --> 00:27:15,320
Speaker 3: gulp before you say it Is saquon under fifty eight

590
00:27:15,359 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 3: and a half rushing yards in the first, half and

591
00:27:18,400 --> 00:27:21,120
Speaker 3: this kind of goes into two different levels. Here level

592
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:23,680
Speaker 3: one would BE i found this. Interesting first half the,

593
00:27:23,720 --> 00:27:26,720
Speaker 3: season he has eleven rushes of thirteen plus. Yards four

594
00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 3: of those eleven came Versus, Washington SO i, mean when

595
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:33,680
Speaker 3: you think about just those games he, EXPLODED i think

596
00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:37,000
Speaker 3: otherwise there's lots of options for him to go under that.

597
00:27:37,119 --> 00:27:39,440
Speaker 3: Mark and then as a Better i'm kind of just

598
00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:42,359
Speaker 3: telling you where my mindset. Is he in the second

599
00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:43,879
Speaker 3: half the, season he has the most carries in THE,

600
00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:47,000
Speaker 3: nfl the most rushing, yards and the most ten plus yard.

601
00:27:47,080 --> 00:27:50,200
Speaker 3: Runs so If i'm right and that rushing total does

602
00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:52,680
Speaker 3: go under and he you, know gets bottled, up let's

603
00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:54,280
Speaker 3: just call it a little bit in the first. Half

604
00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:56,920
Speaker 3: i'm actually gonna look at the live over for his

605
00:27:57,119 --> 00:28:00,240
Speaker 3: BECAUSE i do feel like second half he has the

606
00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:02,639
Speaker 3: ability to do some of those. Things And i'm literally

607
00:28:02,760 --> 00:28:06,000
Speaker 3: not looking into this more than he is an absolute

608
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:08,399
Speaker 3: firecracker in the second. Half so If i've cashed my

609
00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:11,080
Speaker 3: first half, BET i do feel like there is an option.

610
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:13,800
Speaker 3: There maybe even the longest rush you know that loses your,

611
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 3: bet but that's kind of Where i'm at With. SAQUON

612
00:28:16,600 --> 00:28:18,960
Speaker 3: i Know i'm threading a needle here playing two pianos

613
00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:21,240
Speaker 3: next to each, other but that's that's kind of where

614
00:28:21,240 --> 00:28:21,720
Speaker 3: my head's. At.

615
00:28:22,320 --> 00:28:23,760
Speaker 1: Yeah, NO i think that that makes a lot of

616
00:28:23,800 --> 00:28:26,200
Speaker 1: sense TO i doubt we can play longest rush.

617
00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:27,320
Speaker 2: LIVE i don't know that.

618
00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:29,720
Speaker 1: That's a problem market that stays, open BUT i think

619
00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:32,399
Speaker 1: playing the first half under. Definitely we've seen him have

620
00:28:32,520 --> 00:28:35,520
Speaker 1: these explosive big runs in the second, half AND i.

621
00:28:35,520 --> 00:28:38,360
Speaker 2: Think especially if you like The eagles as you, do having.

622
00:28:38,200 --> 00:28:39,960
Speaker 1: Them running the ball more in the second half gives

623
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:42,400
Speaker 1: you more chances at the big run against probably what

624
00:28:42,600 --> 00:28:43,680
Speaker 1: is a more and more tire.

625
00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:45,000
Speaker 2: Defense so it makes.

626
00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:49,120
Speaker 1: Sense, eventually you stopped him ten, times you stopped them fifteen.

627
00:28:49,200 --> 00:28:51,959
Speaker 2: Times all it took was one mistackle and that guy

628
00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:54,400
Speaker 2: has gone down the. Sideline you get your over in

629
00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:55,440
Speaker 2: the second half the live.

630
00:28:55,520 --> 00:28:57,240
Speaker 1: Over if you got, it you get the over on

631
00:28:57,360 --> 00:29:00,880
Speaker 1: the longest. Run SO i think he gets the long.

632
00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:03,120
Speaker 1: RUN i think that the script goes the other. Direction

633
00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:06,560
Speaker 1: SO i ended up looking at who can get the longest,

634
00:29:06,640 --> 00:29:09,240
Speaker 1: run AND i actually think it's one of the quarterbacks

635
00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:12,800
Speaker 1: in this. Game So i'm gonna play over longest rush

636
00:29:12,920 --> 00:29:15,400
Speaker 1: for Both mahomes And. Hurts you can get quick slips

637
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:16,800
Speaker 1: for all three of these longest rush in.

638
00:29:16,840 --> 00:29:17,800
Speaker 2: There let me start With.

639
00:29:17,880 --> 00:29:20,760
Speaker 1: MAHOMES i actually almost made this the hot read way

640
00:29:20,800 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 1: back like two weeks. Ago on the night that these games,

641
00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:25,720
Speaker 1: finished we talked About Dallas. Goddard we're not gonna mention

642
00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:26,120
Speaker 1: him much.

643
00:29:26,160 --> 00:29:28,880
Speaker 2: Today we love that. Prop we got. It it moved

644
00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:30,880
Speaker 2: up like eight. Yards it's not playable.

645
00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:34,120
Speaker 1: Now Patrick mahomes as a runner has always been good

646
00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:35,600
Speaker 1: in the, playoffs especially The Super.

647
00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:36,160
Speaker 2: Bowl Four Super.

648
00:29:36,160 --> 00:29:39,280
Speaker 1: Bowls he's a rushed for twenty nine thirty three forty

649
00:29:39,320 --> 00:29:41,480
Speaker 1: four sixty six yards average forty.

650
00:29:41,240 --> 00:29:44,040
Speaker 2: Three game AND i was, like, Okay Patrick mahomes rushing.

651
00:29:44,120 --> 00:29:44,760
Speaker 2: Escalator here we.

652
00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:47,840
Speaker 1: Go, well the book's run to. It the line was

653
00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:49,720
Speaker 1: already like twenty eight and a. Half now it's above,

654
00:29:49,800 --> 00:29:53,720
Speaker 1: thirty and that line already kind of lost a lot of.

655
00:29:53,800 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 1: VALUE i think it's boosted a little. Bit in, ADDITION

656
00:29:56,800 --> 00:29:59,720
Speaker 1: i looked for both these quarterbacks after rushing. Over but,

657
00:29:59,800 --> 00:30:02,040
Speaker 1: YEAH i alays have the threat of, like, oh there

658
00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:03,880
Speaker 1: went minus eight yards at the end of the, game

659
00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:06,200
Speaker 1: because we melt out The Super bowl AND i lost the.

660
00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:08,560
Speaker 1: Prop we literally had to happen With Patrick mahomes and

661
00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:11,320
Speaker 1: one of the Previous Super bowl. Wins so why DO

662
00:30:11,440 --> 00:30:13,280
Speaker 1: i Like mahomes and why DO i like the longest? Rush,

663
00:30:13,560 --> 00:30:15,440
Speaker 1: well we don't need to hit the over on rushing.

664
00:30:15,560 --> 00:30:18,120
Speaker 1: Yards he's actually hit the longest rush prop and a

665
00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:20,440
Speaker 1: few playoff, games even when he only ends up with

666
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:22,800
Speaker 1: like seventeen yards and goes under on the, total we

667
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:26,360
Speaker 1: seed one good. Play and to, me both angles here

668
00:30:26,480 --> 00:30:30,280
Speaker 1: for quarterbacks are. Scrambles Patrick mahomes in the playoffs has

669
00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:33,200
Speaker 1: gone up from under six percent scrambler rate to almost fourteen,

670
00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:36,200
Speaker 1: percent more than double scramble right in the. Playoffs and

671
00:30:36,320 --> 00:30:38,400
Speaker 1: we see that he is not going to do those.

672
00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:40,680
Speaker 1: Sneaks we know that it's too. Risky he's not gonna

673
00:30:40,680 --> 00:30:43,120
Speaker 1: put his health on the. Line but, man when the

674
00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:46,200
Speaker 1: defense has their back turned and That fangio defense with his,

675
00:30:46,280 --> 00:30:49,280
Speaker 1: zone they're gonna have that Sometimes mahomes can just take

676
00:30:49,320 --> 00:30:53,080
Speaker 1: off and make a. Play The eagles also only allowed

677
00:30:53,160 --> 00:30:55,800
Speaker 1: more than twenty rushing yards to a quarterback four times all,

678
00:30:55,880 --> 00:30:58,120
Speaker 1: season AND i think that was Like lamar once And

679
00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:01,080
Speaker 1: Jane daniels. Twice SO i don't necessarily need the whole.

680
00:31:01,120 --> 00:31:04,600
Speaker 1: Thing But, mahomes when he's Played fangio last five, games

681
00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:06,880
Speaker 1: has started to run a little bit. More he has

682
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:10,200
Speaker 1: eight double digit yard runs in the last five games Against,

683
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:13,720
Speaker 1: fangio and in playoff. Games he has eight straight playoff

684
00:31:13,720 --> 00:31:17,120
Speaker 1: games with at least an eleven yard, run including against

685
00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:19,640
Speaker 1: The eagles a fourteen and a twenty, six one of

686
00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:21,720
Speaker 1: those really important late in the. Game if you, remember

687
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:25,160
Speaker 1: so we don't get by with ten or. Eleven it's

688
00:31:25,240 --> 00:31:27,280
Speaker 1: over eleven and a, half it's, twelve thirteen and a.

689
00:31:27,320 --> 00:31:28,960
Speaker 1: Half at some, books you want to obviously get the

690
00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:32,120
Speaker 1: best number you. Can but in the Four Super bowls in,

691
00:31:32,240 --> 00:31:36,600
Speaker 1: Particular patrickholmes has at least two double digit runs.

692
00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:38,000
Speaker 2: In all four of The Super.

693
00:31:38,040 --> 00:31:40,840
Speaker 1: Bowls he's going over this longest rush three of the,

694
00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:43,000
Speaker 1: four and in the one he, missed he had a

695
00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:45,280
Speaker 1: ten to ten and, eleven so we were right there on.

696
00:31:45,400 --> 00:31:47,280
Speaker 1: IT i just think he's going to be out and.

697
00:31:47,320 --> 00:31:50,920
Speaker 1: Scrambling you can play a twenty plus run at plus three.

698
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:54,240
Speaker 1: Hundred he's hit that in six of his last twelve playoff.

699
00:31:54,240 --> 00:31:56,160
Speaker 1: Games he's hit that in three of the last five Against.

700
00:31:56,200 --> 00:31:59,400
Speaker 1: FANGIO i think that's really what probably this line ends

701
00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:02,480
Speaker 1: up looking more like what it should. Be So mahomes

702
00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:04,840
Speaker 1: on the longest rush and Then Jalen hurts a little

703
00:32:04,840 --> 00:32:06,800
Speaker 1: bit faster on this. One The chiefs are just not

704
00:32:06,920 --> 00:32:10,240
Speaker 1: good against scrambles And. Mahomes i'm, Sorry hurts is going

705
00:32:10,320 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 1: to be scrambling a. Lot The chiefs allowed forty one

706
00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:15,680
Speaker 1: runs of ten yards or more this, year but seventeen

707
00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:18,680
Speaker 1: of those forty one percent were by. Quarterbacks hurts has

708
00:32:18,680 --> 00:32:21,160
Speaker 1: had a ten yard run thirteen of eighteen games this.

709
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:25,000
Speaker 1: Season he's at an eleven yard runner longer eleven straight

710
00:32:25,080 --> 00:32:28,200
Speaker 1: games outside of Two washington. Games for whatever, Reason washington

711
00:32:28,200 --> 00:32:31,160
Speaker 1: doesn't let him, scramble but everyone else. DOES i just

712
00:32:31,240 --> 00:32:34,280
Speaker 1: think he also gets either a designed run or scramble

713
00:32:34,760 --> 00:32:36,840
Speaker 1: over eleven and a half. Yards the numbers back that.

714
00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:40,280
Speaker 1: Up twenty yards are more for him plus two. Fifty

715
00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:43,040
Speaker 1: he's at a twenty one yard rush eight of eighteen

716
00:32:43,120 --> 00:32:46,000
Speaker 1: games this, season including four of the last. Six SO

717
00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 1: i think both these guys have a pretty good shot

718
00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:52,120
Speaker 1: at hitting a twenty yard run on. DraftKings it's like

719
00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:54,880
Speaker 1: they knew they made me a prop under the special

720
00:32:54,960 --> 00:32:58,440
Speaker 1: props called mobile. Quarterbacks both quarterbacks twenty yards a run

721
00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:01,160
Speaker 1: or longer ten to one. Odds sign me up for that,

722
00:33:01,280 --> 00:33:04,760
Speaker 1: one and then that bet you talked about longest run

723
00:33:04,840 --> 00:33:04,960
Speaker 1: of the.

724
00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:06,560
Speaker 2: Game add it all.

725
00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:09,560
Speaker 1: Up IF i don't think It's, saquon THEN i do

726
00:33:09,720 --> 00:33:12,760
Speaker 1: think it's gotta be somebody. Else mahomes is eleven to

727
00:33:12,840 --> 00:33:15,360
Speaker 1: one for longest rush at one. Book hurts is ten

728
00:33:15,400 --> 00:33:17,800
Speaker 1: to one at another. Book i'm gonna play them. Both

729
00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:19,680
Speaker 1: gives me basically a plus four to seventy.

730
00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:21,080
Speaker 2: FIVE i love.

731
00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:23,719
Speaker 1: THIS i think that the books have the whole running thing.

732
00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:27,800
Speaker 1: Wrong saquan Under hurts And mahomes over on the longest,

733
00:33:27,920 --> 00:33:29,800
Speaker 1: rush and then some of those creative escalators.

734
00:33:29,840 --> 00:33:30,000
Speaker 2: Too.

735
00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:33,560
Speaker 3: Yeah the only Add i'll have there is a little

736
00:33:33,600 --> 00:33:36,640
Speaker 3: bit of a prop that it's all over the, place

737
00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:39,960
Speaker 3: But hurts five plus rush yards in each. QUARTER i

738
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:42,400
Speaker 3: just think pressure is gonna be the key. There So

739
00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:45,440
Speaker 3: hurts nine point five percent, sack, Right obviously that's a,

740
00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:48,720
Speaker 3: sack but sacks can turn into scrambles very, quickly so

741
00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:51,200
Speaker 3: almost one point five percent higher than any season his.

742
00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 3: Career and then you just look at percent of dropbacks under,

743
00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:56,480
Speaker 3: pressure and this Season hurts is over forty, percent like

744
00:33:56,640 --> 00:34:00,520
Speaker 3: he was last, season and mahomes three percent lower thirty two,

745
00:34:00,600 --> 00:34:02,960
Speaker 3: Percent SO i feel Like hurtz kind of has the

746
00:34:03,000 --> 00:34:04,800
Speaker 3: advantage on the. Scramble SO i kind of like that

747
00:34:04,920 --> 00:34:08,480
Speaker 3: prop six to one is WHERE i found. IT i

748
00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:10,600
Speaker 3: have some touchdown, stuff But i'm gonna save, It so

749
00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:14,960
Speaker 3: let's just keep going. Here Xavier worthy is the key

750
00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:18,000
Speaker 3: to The chiefs. ATTACK i think there's some interesting things

751
00:34:18,280 --> 00:34:20,560
Speaker 3: About worthy in this, game but you're taking a completely

752
00:34:20,640 --> 00:34:22,680
Speaker 3: different angle on. It so Attack. Worthy.

753
00:34:23,120 --> 00:34:25,040
Speaker 1: Yeah worthy is a guy that we've been playing a

754
00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:27,759
Speaker 1: couple times on in these playoff best, bets playing those,

755
00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:29,520
Speaker 1: receptions and that's Where i'm kind of headed here.

756
00:34:29,560 --> 00:34:30,480
Speaker 2: Again so set the.

757
00:34:30,560 --> 00:34:34,359
Speaker 1: Stage fangio defense number one against the deep, ball number

758
00:34:34,400 --> 00:34:37,080
Speaker 1: one against middle of the. Field top five against running

759
00:34:37,120 --> 00:34:39,400
Speaker 1: backs in the passing. Game that's An Andy reid, specialty those,

760
00:34:39,440 --> 00:34:43,359
Speaker 1: screenplays top five against tight ends At Travis. Kelcey where

761
00:34:43,480 --> 00:34:46,200
Speaker 1: do you attack The eagles pass? Defense, well they play

762
00:34:46,239 --> 00:34:48,239
Speaker 1: a ton of, zone about two thirds of the snap bar.

763
00:34:48,360 --> 00:34:50,640
Speaker 1: Zone you're playing the safety, deep take away the deep.

764
00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:53,120
Speaker 2: Ball cover? Three how do you Beat cover?

765
00:34:53,280 --> 00:34:57,920
Speaker 1: Three horizontal stretch plays, speed That's Xavier? Worthy how do

766
00:34:57,960 --> 00:34:58,399
Speaker 1: you Beat cover?

767
00:34:58,480 --> 00:35:00,400
Speaker 2: Four and cover. Six The egles play more six to

768
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:01,600
Speaker 2: anyone in the. League how do you beat?

769
00:35:01,680 --> 00:35:02,360
Speaker 3: That in the?

770
00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:05,400
Speaker 1: Flats those, short little dump off passes right the line of,

771
00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:07,120
Speaker 1: Scrimmage who are they going to get the ball?

772
00:35:07,200 --> 00:35:08,240
Speaker 2: To Xavier?

773
00:35:08,280 --> 00:35:11,279
Speaker 1: Worthy he has ninety nine percent in THE nfl ON

774
00:35:11,440 --> 00:35:14,720
Speaker 1: epa in the. Flats sixty two of his seventy catches

775
00:35:14,760 --> 00:35:17,920
Speaker 1: this season either qualified as short or behind the line of,

776
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 1: scrimmage and he has over a NINETY pff grade in

777
00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:22,840
Speaker 1: both of. Those he's averaging seven and a half yards

778
00:35:22,880 --> 00:35:25,520
Speaker 1: after the catch on. Those just get the ball to

779
00:35:25,640 --> 00:35:27,920
Speaker 1: him on a punt, return, basically just put him out

780
00:35:27,960 --> 00:35:30,160
Speaker 1: on the. Side it turns into a run. Play let

781
00:35:30,239 --> 00:35:32,760
Speaker 1: him do his. Thing chiefs led the league this season

782
00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:35,560
Speaker 1: AN epa per play on quick, passes And worthy Cot

783
00:35:35,840 --> 00:35:38,640
Speaker 1: or had targeted almost a third of those times on quick.

784
00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:41,440
Speaker 2: PASSES a shocking name to bring up here in A

785
00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:41,919
Speaker 2: Super bowl.

786
00:35:41,960 --> 00:35:45,360
Speaker 1: Podcast Wandale, robinson The giants, RECEIVER i think is a

787
00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:50,040
Speaker 1: similar stylistic player To Xavier, worthy clearly. Worse when they

788
00:35:50,160 --> 00:35:52,719
Speaker 1: played The eagles this, year he had six catches in

789
00:35:52,840 --> 00:35:55,279
Speaker 1: one game ten catches in the other. GAME i think

790
00:35:55,320 --> 00:35:59,000
Speaker 1: that's a similar attacking the, flats attacking those short. Spaces

791
00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:02,680
Speaker 1: he out targets and out Received Molik neighbors both of those,

792
00:36:02,800 --> 00:36:04,200
Speaker 1: games even Though neighbors.

793
00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:04,400
Speaker 2: Played both of.

794
00:36:04,440 --> 00:36:08,560
Speaker 1: Those so we've talked about this With worthy before or

795
00:36:08,640 --> 00:36:12,320
Speaker 1: through week. Twelve they used him totally differently The chiefs

796
00:36:12,360 --> 00:36:14,520
Speaker 1: did than how they. Do and now his a dot

797
00:36:14,719 --> 00:36:16,560
Speaker 1: was twelve before, that it's below.

798
00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:16,919
Speaker 2: Six.

799
00:36:17,080 --> 00:36:21,240
Speaker 1: Now he was this tire weekill wannabe that wasn't, working

800
00:36:21,480 --> 00:36:23,680
Speaker 1: was barely getting even half the ball is. Caught now

801
00:36:24,200 --> 00:36:26,520
Speaker 1: he's playing a ton of. Snaps his snap.

802
00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:27,960
Speaker 2: Rays, up his target share is way.

803
00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:30,320
Speaker 1: Up his a dot is, down but he's catching everything

804
00:36:30,520 --> 00:36:32,600
Speaker 1: because it's all this easy. Stuff they're just getting in

805
00:36:32,640 --> 00:36:37,439
Speaker 1: the ball. Quickly since week, thirteen leads The chiefs in yards, routes, run,

806
00:36:37,680 --> 00:36:39,560
Speaker 1: receptions yards after the, catch first re.

807
00:36:39,719 --> 00:36:41,960
Speaker 2: Target let's just pick a. Stat he leads in all of.

808
00:36:42,000 --> 00:36:44,960
Speaker 2: Them so how are we playing? It last five?

809
00:36:45,000 --> 00:36:48,319
Speaker 1: Games if You're worthy six point four receptions a, game

810
00:36:48,680 --> 00:36:51,879
Speaker 1: he's averaging forty six yards after the catch on. Those,

811
00:36:52,400 --> 00:36:54,960
Speaker 1: well that's because they're pretty much all like zero yard.

812
00:36:55,040 --> 00:36:58,040
Speaker 1: Passes in four of the five, games he's at at

813
00:36:58,120 --> 00:37:02,040
Speaker 1: least six catches at least seventy five rushing and receiving

814
00:37:02,120 --> 00:37:06,040
Speaker 1: yards and a. Touchdown SO i want the volume play,

815
00:37:06,080 --> 00:37:09,239
Speaker 1: here not necessarily. YARDS i want receptions over five and

816
00:37:09,280 --> 00:37:12,319
Speaker 1: a half RECEPTIONS, xavi you're worthy plus one twenty quick

817
00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:14,840
Speaker 1: slip for that, one and of course on the escalator

818
00:37:15,200 --> 00:37:17,880
Speaker 1: seven catches for two twenty, five eight catches and more

819
00:37:17,960 --> 00:37:18,800
Speaker 1: plus four twenty.

820
00:37:18,880 --> 00:37:21,880
Speaker 2: FIVE i think that's a look for Just. Worthy you

821
00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:22,400
Speaker 2: get a lot of.

822
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:25,040
Speaker 1: LOOKS i like that if they're, AHEAD i ge if they're,

823
00:37:25,080 --> 00:37:27,279
Speaker 1: behind just get him some quick passes out let him

824
00:37:27,320 --> 00:37:31,120
Speaker 1: do his thing. Anytime touchdown plus one sixty. Five, again

825
00:37:31,200 --> 00:37:34,279
Speaker 1: he's scored for the last five games fifteen to one for.

826
00:37:34,400 --> 00:37:36,600
Speaker 1: Two if you like, that you might just end up

827
00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:39,279
Speaker 1: wanting to Play Xavier WORTHY. Mvp, instead we'll get back

828
00:37:39,280 --> 00:37:42,239
Speaker 1: TO mvp rushing. YARDS i know that one's been very.

829
00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:43,840
Speaker 1: Popular we've seen that pop up on a lot of

830
00:37:43,880 --> 00:37:46,480
Speaker 1: those most bet. PROPS i don't mind it over five

831
00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:48,520
Speaker 1: and a half rushing. YARDS i don't mind if you

832
00:37:48,560 --> 00:37:50,759
Speaker 1: want to combine that with the rushing. Receiving that's the

833
00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:52,759
Speaker 1: thing he's done over sixty.

834
00:37:52,480 --> 00:37:54,480
Speaker 2: Four and a. Half kind of a fun other.

835
00:37:54,600 --> 00:37:57,600
Speaker 1: Way last, One, UNWORTHY i actually looked At, okay what

836
00:37:57,680 --> 00:38:00,239
Speaker 1: about longest reception For worthy because he's so so what

837
00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:02,440
Speaker 1: if he just breaks the long? One, well so remember

838
00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:05,000
Speaker 1: against The, bills he had that twenty six yard catch

839
00:38:05,120 --> 00:38:07,200
Speaker 1: that was like not a, catch but they called it

840
00:38:07,280 --> 00:38:08,520
Speaker 1: a catch and they had to leave it a catch

841
00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:11,680
Speaker 1: on the. Field other than that, play he hasn't had

842
00:38:11,800 --> 00:38:14,560
Speaker 1: longer than a twenty one yard catch in seven. Games

843
00:38:15,040 --> 00:38:17,600
Speaker 1: the way they're using him, now it's ten, yards it's twelve,

844
00:38:17,640 --> 00:38:20,080
Speaker 1: yards fifteen, yards but he hasn't broken that long one.

845
00:38:20,160 --> 00:38:23,360
Speaker 1: Yet so a Little Nick giffen, here give me the

846
00:38:23,480 --> 00:38:27,520
Speaker 1: negative correlated prop over five and a half catches under

847
00:38:27,840 --> 00:38:30,200
Speaker 1: twenty one and a half on the longest, reception it's

848
00:38:30,280 --> 00:38:33,120
Speaker 1: plus four or. Eleven if we think the volume's, there

849
00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:36,080
Speaker 1: then naturally they have to price it so that he

850
00:38:36,200 --> 00:38:37,960
Speaker 1: might have a shot at a long. ONE i don't

851
00:38:37,960 --> 00:38:39,600
Speaker 1: think we're gonna get necessarily a long when The eagles

852
00:38:39,640 --> 00:38:41,319
Speaker 1: defense is too good to get the long. One they're

853
00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:43,560
Speaker 1: designed to not allow. That BUT i do think he

854
00:38:43,640 --> 00:38:45,879
Speaker 1: gets the, volume SO i like that one as. Well

855
00:38:45,960 --> 00:38:49,200
Speaker 1: But Xavier worthy escalator on the. RECEPTIONS i think this

856
00:38:49,320 --> 00:38:50,080
Speaker 1: is a big game for.

857
00:38:50,200 --> 00:38:54,160
Speaker 3: Him so a stat THAT i found. Unworthy that is

858
00:38:54,280 --> 00:38:57,280
Speaker 3: just it's just so. Perfect and this is From, stadhead

859
00:38:57,320 --> 00:39:01,120
Speaker 3: Which Pro Football reference great Tool worthy joins Only Deebo

860
00:39:01,239 --> 00:39:04,200
Speaker 3: samuel to have six hundred plus receiving yards and twenty

861
00:39:04,280 --> 00:39:06,919
Speaker 3: plus rush attempts during the regular season and make The Super.

862
00:39:06,960 --> 00:39:08,840
Speaker 3: Bowl SO i thought it was just very funny That

863
00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:11,680
Speaker 3: Kansas city basically Saw San francisco and went out and

864
00:39:11,760 --> 00:39:15,799
Speaker 3: found their own. Debo just a funny little antidote. There

865
00:39:15,960 --> 00:39:19,200
Speaker 3: the bet THAT i like, here And i'm actually splitting

866
00:39:19,280 --> 00:39:23,120
Speaker 3: this between two plus money, bets which would be catch

867
00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:27,640
Speaker 3: On casey's first. Drive worthy is plus one Twenty hollywood

868
00:39:27,719 --> 00:39:30,600
Speaker 3: is plus one. Eighty so Since hollywood came back in

869
00:39:30,680 --> 00:39:34,120
Speaker 3: the First houston, game both of, them one of them

870
00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:36,200
Speaker 3: have had a catch on their first, drive and in

871
00:39:36,280 --> 00:39:39,200
Speaker 3: two of those four games both of them did so

872
00:39:39,400 --> 00:39:41,719
Speaker 3: possible To AND i do think early in the, game,

873
00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:44,920
Speaker 3: listen could they give the ball To Cream hunt and

874
00:39:45,080 --> 00:39:47,160
Speaker 3: jam them up the middle for two yards and do

875
00:39:47,280 --> 00:39:49,480
Speaker 3: that two or three times and then punt, Maybe but

876
00:39:49,920 --> 00:39:51,600
Speaker 3: in my, opinion they're going to try to throw the

877
00:39:51,600 --> 00:39:53,120
Speaker 3: ball a little. BIT i think it's going to be short.

878
00:39:53,160 --> 00:39:56,080
Speaker 3: Throws BUT i do think why not on the opening

879
00:39:56,160 --> 00:39:58,640
Speaker 3: drive a get the ball To worthy some, way and

880
00:39:58,840 --> 00:40:02,560
Speaker 3: B hollywood's got fourth most routes or, No i'm, sorry the,

881
00:40:02,640 --> 00:40:05,800
Speaker 3: THIRD i believe most routes in that. Time so he

882
00:40:05,960 --> 00:40:08,800
Speaker 3: is really getting back into the game for, them and

883
00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:11,440
Speaker 3: he's you, know playing more Than, juju playing way more Than.

884
00:40:11,520 --> 00:40:14,400
Speaker 3: Hopkins SO i thought that was an interesting, one and

885
00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:16,560
Speaker 3: you kind of brought up the rushing. Aspect the other

886
00:40:16,640 --> 00:40:18,719
Speaker 3: ONE i was looking at AND i really wanted to bet,

887
00:40:18,760 --> 00:40:20,799
Speaker 3: it BUT i just can't get there was over one

888
00:40:20,840 --> 00:40:24,080
Speaker 3: and a half rush. Attempts it's plus money right. Now

889
00:40:24,520 --> 00:40:27,320
Speaker 3: obviously to, ME i Bet worthy over three and a

890
00:40:27,360 --> 00:40:29,400
Speaker 3: half rushing. Yards it's now up to five and a.

891
00:40:29,440 --> 00:40:31,600
Speaker 3: Half SO i didn't really want to go to that

892
00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:33,799
Speaker 3: direction BECAUSE i do feel like that's a little. Fair

893
00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:35,640
Speaker 3: SO i was trying to look at the, fact like

894
00:40:35,719 --> 00:40:38,680
Speaker 3: would they actually go back to him. Again it's the reason,

895
00:40:38,840 --> 00:40:40,920
Speaker 3: WHY i, Mean nick's kind of against. You he liked

896
00:40:40,920 --> 00:40:42,839
Speaker 3: the under five and a half receptions kind of looking

897
00:40:42,880 --> 00:40:45,000
Speaker 3: at the rush attempt is just another way to get

898
00:40:45,040 --> 00:40:46,759
Speaker 3: him the. Ball BUT i agree with. YOU i, MEAN

899
00:40:46,760 --> 00:40:48,759
Speaker 3: i think the screen. PASSES i think there's lots of

900
00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:51,239
Speaker 3: ways they're going to force the ball to. Him SO

901
00:40:52,280 --> 00:40:55,759
Speaker 3: i definitely feel the. Bet any thoughts there before we move.

902
00:40:55,680 --> 00:40:58,040
Speaker 1: On, YEAH i mean it's tricky too with the, attempts

903
00:40:58,280 --> 00:41:00,799
Speaker 1: which does tie into the reception that, Like there're gonna

904
00:41:00,800 --> 00:41:02,960
Speaker 1: be a couple of these plays where it's Like worthy

905
00:41:03,040 --> 00:41:05,200
Speaker 1: Is jets sweep across the. Middle it's, Like, okay did

906
00:41:05,239 --> 00:41:07,000
Speaker 1: he hand it off behind him or did he pitch

907
00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:09,239
Speaker 1: the ball forty? Yard is it a catch or a?

908
00:41:09,360 --> 00:41:11,960
Speaker 1: Carry this could be close on a couple of. THOSE

909
00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:15,239
Speaker 1: i know Because i've had The worthy receptions escalater and

910
00:41:15,560 --> 00:41:16,919
Speaker 1: we've had a couple of those Where i'm, Like, okay

911
00:41:17,320 --> 00:41:19,040
Speaker 1: was that a? Catcher you gotta check the box score

912
00:41:19,040 --> 00:41:21,240
Speaker 1: and make. SURE i think as far as the yards.

913
00:41:21,280 --> 00:41:23,839
Speaker 1: Go that's WHY i kind of like the rushing plus

914
00:41:23,960 --> 00:41:26,200
Speaker 1: receiving yards combo play if you can do, That, like,

915
00:41:26,239 --> 00:41:29,160
Speaker 1: okay just get the yards however you got. THERE i

916
00:41:29,360 --> 00:41:31,920
Speaker 1: was gonna say too about your first drive. One this

917
00:41:32,120 --> 00:41:34,439
Speaker 1: is not an Angle i've played, before BUT i thought

918
00:41:34,440 --> 00:41:36,759
Speaker 1: About Xavier' worthy first. CATCH i know that that's a

919
00:41:36,840 --> 00:41:39,279
Speaker 1: bet you can bet in The Super. BOWL i don't

920
00:41:39,360 --> 00:41:41,360
Speaker 1: have data for, it SO i can't make that an official,

921
00:41:41,440 --> 00:41:44,000
Speaker 1: pick but to me If i'm right that he's going

922
00:41:44,080 --> 00:41:46,080
Speaker 1: to be an important weapon attacking out in the flats

923
00:41:46,080 --> 00:41:48,719
Speaker 1: and just getting it out in the space. Horizontal isn't

924
00:41:48,760 --> 00:41:50,480
Speaker 1: that a thing you would do right away on the first,

925
00:41:50,520 --> 00:41:52,640
Speaker 1: play to try to stretch the defense out right. Away

926
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:54,480
Speaker 1: that makes a lot of sense to, Me, LIKE i,

927
00:41:54,600 --> 00:41:57,200
Speaker 1: know intrinsically it's, like, oh just throw the ball To

928
00:41:57,280 --> 00:41:59,080
Speaker 1: kelsey at first, play you, KNOW i get him the. Pass, like,

929
00:41:59,160 --> 00:42:01,360
Speaker 1: WELL i think you're trying to set stuff, up and

930
00:42:01,440 --> 00:42:03,680
Speaker 1: that's what The chiefs. DO i think it's setting it

931
00:42:03,760 --> 00:42:06,240
Speaker 1: up With Xavier worthy right away makes a lot of sense.

932
00:42:06,880 --> 00:42:09,480
Speaker 3: Base of all the other bets we're. Giving you put

933
00:42:09,520 --> 00:42:12,719
Speaker 3: it on the. Board all, right let's move on. Here

934
00:42:12,880 --> 00:42:15,560
Speaker 3: and so this is gonna be defense making big plays

935
00:42:15,600 --> 00:42:17,279
Speaker 3: in The Super. BOWL i mean you talked about this

936
00:42:17,719 --> 00:42:20,239
Speaker 3: a ton on The favorites earlier this, week and to,

937
00:42:20,360 --> 00:42:23,200
Speaker 3: me it's kind of the storyline of Every Super, Bowl

938
00:42:23,440 --> 00:42:26,680
Speaker 3: like some guy makes a play at some. Point usually

939
00:42:26,719 --> 00:42:29,719
Speaker 3: it's a to sometimes it's a. Touchdown sometimes it's even two.

940
00:42:29,800 --> 00:42:32,520
Speaker 3: Interceptions like we've seen some weird things happen In Super,

941
00:42:32,560 --> 00:42:33,799
Speaker 3: bowls AND i think that's what you're banking.

942
00:42:33,880 --> 00:42:36,800
Speaker 1: On, YEAH i mean Super bowl is like small sample sized.

943
00:42:36,840 --> 00:42:39,839
Speaker 1: Theater and in a sport where there the oblong weird, shave,

944
00:42:39,920 --> 00:42:42,880
Speaker 1: football weird stuff. Happens and in a game where we

945
00:42:42,960 --> 00:42:46,560
Speaker 1: all think it's close all the, way one big play

946
00:42:46,719 --> 00:42:48,960
Speaker 1: one to wrong balance that turns into a touchdown the

947
00:42:49,000 --> 00:42:51,680
Speaker 1: other way from the, defense seven free points in a

948
00:42:51,760 --> 00:42:54,440
Speaker 1: game where the spread is one that can totally swing the,

949
00:42:54,520 --> 00:42:56,759
Speaker 1: game and it often. Has in The Super, bowl we've

950
00:42:56,800 --> 00:42:59,920
Speaker 1: seen twenty two defensive touchdowns and fifty Eight Super Bowl

951
00:43:00,360 --> 00:43:02,319
Speaker 1: we're at least one in nineteen of The Super.

952
00:43:02,320 --> 00:43:03,760
Speaker 2: Bowls that's almost one.

953
00:43:03,640 --> 00:43:06,160
Speaker 1: In every Three Super bowls we get a defensive. Touchdown

954
00:43:06,200 --> 00:43:08,560
Speaker 1: we just had one in The Eagles chiefs.

955
00:43:08,600 --> 00:43:09,080
Speaker 2: Game last.

956
00:43:09,120 --> 00:43:12,400
Speaker 1: Time Nick bolton picks up a Fumble Jalen hurts just

957
00:43:12,520 --> 00:43:15,160
Speaker 1: on a designed, run just frankly dropped the Ball Nick

958
00:43:15,200 --> 00:43:15,960
Speaker 1: bolton into the end.

959
00:43:16,040 --> 00:43:17,600
Speaker 2: Zone he almost had a second.

960
00:43:17,680 --> 00:43:20,560
Speaker 1: One he celebrated a second touchdown on a player where

961
00:43:20,560 --> 00:43:23,120
Speaker 1: he was kind of a screen bang bang. Play they

962
00:43:23,200 --> 00:43:25,480
Speaker 1: called it a, touchdown they reviewed, it took it off the.

963
00:43:25,520 --> 00:43:27,400
Speaker 1: BOARD i just watched the replay the other. Day that

964
00:43:27,520 --> 00:43:30,840
Speaker 1: was really, Close Like Nick bolton was a split second

965
00:43:30,880 --> 00:43:34,799
Speaker 1: away from two touchdowns and PROBABLY mvp to close out

966
00:43:34,800 --> 00:43:37,359
Speaker 1: the game at that. POINT i don't know what the reason.

967
00:43:37,440 --> 00:43:40,960
Speaker 1: Is is it defenses are over scouting and they're ready

968
00:43:41,000 --> 00:43:42,799
Speaker 1: to like shoot the gap where they know the play

969
00:43:42,800 --> 00:43:45,440
Speaker 1: a little. Better is it, desperation there's nothing left to,

970
00:43:45,520 --> 00:43:48,160
Speaker 1: lose so their quarterbacks thrown it up for grabs, late

971
00:43:48,760 --> 00:43:51,719
Speaker 1: whatever it, is we're getting more defensive touchdowns than we

972
00:43:51,760 --> 00:43:54,000
Speaker 1: typically what you should not get one every three games

973
00:43:54,200 --> 00:43:56,239
Speaker 1: for THE. NFL i think about a Typical sunday in THE,

974
00:43:56,360 --> 00:43:59,440
Speaker 1: nfl we don't get like five six defensive. Touchdowns most

975
00:43:59,440 --> 00:44:02,240
Speaker 1: we could get like one or two. Maybe Now chiefs

976
00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:04,080
Speaker 1: And eagles don't turn the ball over. Much that's like

977
00:44:04,120 --> 00:44:07,120
Speaker 1: the hallmark of both teams under one a. Game, yeah guess,

978
00:44:07,160 --> 00:44:09,000
Speaker 1: what that's the hallmark of all The Super bowl. Teams

979
00:44:09,160 --> 00:44:12,399
Speaker 1: so we're still getting these. Touchdowns so you can bet

980
00:44:12,560 --> 00:44:15,719
Speaker 1: defense or special teams touchdowns plus two to. SIXTY i

981
00:44:15,800 --> 00:44:18,160
Speaker 1: think we get a little more aggressive than. THAT i

982
00:44:18,520 --> 00:44:21,120
Speaker 1: actually said this wrong on the Favorite so special teams

983
00:44:21,320 --> 00:44:24,160
Speaker 1: we do have THIRTEEN i believe special teams touchdowns in

984
00:44:24,239 --> 00:44:27,279
Speaker 1: The Super bowl eight the last three. Decades so keep

985
00:44:27,320 --> 00:44:29,000
Speaker 1: an eye on your. Book it'll say.

986
00:44:29,120 --> 00:44:31,919
Speaker 2: Defense touchdown or d slash st.

987
00:44:32,160 --> 00:44:34,719
Speaker 1: Touchdown you'll want the special teams, HERE i think if

988
00:44:34,760 --> 00:44:36,800
Speaker 1: you can get if the price is pretty. Similar and

989
00:44:36,880 --> 00:44:39,920
Speaker 1: then here's the other thing to watch. For when the defense,

990
00:44:40,000 --> 00:44:43,720
Speaker 1: scores it almost always means that you. WIN i mentioned

991
00:44:43,760 --> 00:44:46,400
Speaker 1: twenty two defensive. Touchdowns only three of those came from

992
00:44:46,480 --> 00:44:50,359
Speaker 1: the losing. Team so at least one defensive touchdown by

993
00:44:50,400 --> 00:44:53,080
Speaker 1: the winner sixteen out of fifty Eight super bowls twenty eight.

994
00:44:53,120 --> 00:44:56,120
Speaker 1: Percent So i'm gonna play it both. WAYS i like The,

995
00:44:56,239 --> 00:44:59,040
Speaker 1: chiefs but if The chiefs, lose couldn't it be because

996
00:44:59,040 --> 00:45:00,719
Speaker 1: The eagles got a free set points on like a

997
00:45:00,760 --> 00:45:03,520
Speaker 1: fluke weird bounce player pick six or. Something, sure that's

998
00:45:03,560 --> 00:45:05,640
Speaker 1: a great easy way FROM i bet to be. Wrong

999
00:45:06,120 --> 00:45:10,600
Speaker 1: So chiefs to score defensive special teams touchdown in O,

1000
00:45:10,680 --> 00:45:13,279
Speaker 1: Wen i'll just tell you can play it At DraftKings

1001
00:45:13,400 --> 00:45:15,359
Speaker 1: because that's a good spot to get the special teams

1002
00:45:15,360 --> 00:45:18,200
Speaker 1: in there as. Well plus nine to. Fifty and if

1003
00:45:18,239 --> 00:45:21,400
Speaker 1: you want The eagles Side eagles touchdown defensive special teams

1004
00:45:21,640 --> 00:45:24,839
Speaker 1: and An eagles win plus one, Thousand i'm playing both

1005
00:45:24,880 --> 00:45:27,879
Speaker 1: of them because together we're at plus four thirty seven.

1006
00:45:27,920 --> 00:45:32,840
Speaker 1: Implied that's nineteen. Percent we're over almost thirty percent historically

1007
00:45:32,880 --> 00:45:35,200
Speaker 1: that this is going to, happen so quick slip for

1008
00:45:35,360 --> 00:45:39,879
Speaker 1: those defensive touchdown and if they do score, touchdown could

1009
00:45:40,080 --> 00:45:44,640
Speaker 1: a defender win THE? Mvp history says they. Could we've

1010
00:45:44,680 --> 00:45:48,719
Speaker 1: had Ten Super bowl MVPs from defensive. Players two of

1011
00:45:48,760 --> 00:45:51,960
Speaker 1: those were CO, mvp but that's fifteen and a half

1012
00:45:52,040 --> 00:45:54,880
Speaker 1: percent of All Super bowl MVPs have gone to a.

1013
00:45:55,000 --> 00:45:58,480
Speaker 1: Defense that's almost one in. Six so you can bet

1014
00:45:59,000 --> 00:46:01,960
Speaker 1: any defender in defensive player to WIN. Mvp don't pick

1015
00:46:02,000 --> 00:46:03,400
Speaker 1: the right, one just bet any of.

1016
00:46:03,440 --> 00:46:04,520
Speaker 2: Them fifteen to.

1017
00:46:04,680 --> 00:46:07,600
Speaker 1: One fifteen to one is way way better odds we

1018
00:46:07,640 --> 00:46:10,160
Speaker 1: should be getting compared to what history. Is and if

1019
00:46:10,200 --> 00:46:12,000
Speaker 1: you go at FanDuel right, now you can break it.

1020
00:46:12,080 --> 00:46:15,120
Speaker 1: Down you can bet by d, line by, linebacker or

1021
00:46:15,200 --> 00:46:17,640
Speaker 1: by defensive back if you, want you can play all

1022
00:46:17,680 --> 00:46:20,279
Speaker 1: three of. Those that's, everybody and you basically get like

1023
00:46:20,320 --> 00:46:22,759
Speaker 1: a plus almost two, thousand so an even better price

1024
00:46:22,840 --> 00:46:23,600
Speaker 1: than the plus fifteen.

1025
00:46:23,680 --> 00:46:27,640
Speaker 2: Hundred SO i love. This this to me is A

1026
00:46:28,120 --> 00:46:30,440
Speaker 2: i don't care who the teams. ARE i bet this.

1027
00:46:30,480 --> 00:46:33,200
Speaker 1: Prop Every Super, bowl Every Super. Bowl bet the defense

1028
00:46:33,320 --> 00:46:35,520
Speaker 1: is a score touchdown because the odds are never. Right

1029
00:46:36,239 --> 00:46:38,520
Speaker 1: and if you want to get, crazy and you KNOW

1030
00:46:38,640 --> 00:46:41,759
Speaker 1: i want to get crazy on THE. Mvp you look

1031
00:46:41,800 --> 00:46:43,960
Speaker 1: at the. List, okay who's gonna WIN. Mvp if it's a,

1032
00:46:44,000 --> 00:46:46,960
Speaker 1: Defender Chris jones is A Jalen. CARTER i don't think

1033
00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:48,759
Speaker 1: those are the right. Names those are the lesser odd.

1034
00:46:48,880 --> 00:46:51,320
Speaker 1: Names they have twelve and a half sacks combined on the.

1035
00:46:51,400 --> 00:46:53,520
Speaker 1: SEASON i don't think that's who. Wins it's not just,

1036
00:46:53,680 --> 00:46:56,720
Speaker 1: oh you were the best player defender Like Aaron donald

1037
00:46:57,000 --> 00:46:59,600
Speaker 1: just retired from A Super, bowl made the game winning

1038
00:46:59,680 --> 00:47:02,759
Speaker 1: play and still didn't win THE. Mvp that's not who

1039
00:47:02,800 --> 00:47:04,920
Speaker 1: we give it. To we give it to guys that

1040
00:47:05,120 --> 00:47:08,120
Speaker 1: make the big touchdown splash play. Right three of the

1041
00:47:08,200 --> 00:47:10,920
Speaker 1: last four defenders that WON mvp were. LINEBACKERS i think

1042
00:47:10,960 --> 00:47:13,600
Speaker 1: you want the guy in the middle of. Everything So Nick,

1043
00:47:13,680 --> 00:47:16,440
Speaker 1: bolton run it, back, baby four hundred to. One he

1044
00:47:16,520 --> 00:47:19,440
Speaker 1: probably almost won it last. Time the average eight and

1045
00:47:19,480 --> 00:47:21,719
Speaker 1: a half tackles a. Game this year he had eight

1046
00:47:21,800 --> 00:47:24,560
Speaker 1: tackles and THAT fulmbw recovery touchdown against The. Eagles he

1047
00:47:24,560 --> 00:47:26,399
Speaker 1: can get a sacker and reception every now and. THEN

1048
00:47:26,760 --> 00:47:29,000
Speaker 1: i like him four hundred to one for The Chiefs

1049
00:47:29,400 --> 00:47:31,680
Speaker 1: Nolan smith three hundred to one would be My eagles.

1050
00:47:31,760 --> 00:47:34,319
Speaker 1: Pick he's had four sacks in the playoffs. Already he's

1051
00:47:34,320 --> 00:47:36,560
Speaker 1: at least one sack five of the last six. Games

1052
00:47:36,920 --> 00:47:40,400
Speaker 1: chiefs tackles have not been. Great Even Drew twinkwell one

1053
00:47:40,480 --> 00:47:43,360
Speaker 1: hundred earth, sorry one thousand to, One he's second on

1054
00:47:43,400 --> 00:47:45,239
Speaker 1: The chiefs and. Tackles he's on the field like seventy

1055
00:47:45,280 --> 00:47:47,480
Speaker 1: five percent of the. Time just give me someone out

1056
00:47:47,520 --> 00:47:49,319
Speaker 1: on the field that might happen to be a. Play

1057
00:47:49,719 --> 00:47:52,000
Speaker 1: Malcolm smith won A Super BOWL mvp.

1058
00:47:51,960 --> 00:47:52,480
Speaker 2: Like a decade.

1059
00:47:52,480 --> 00:47:54,239
Speaker 1: AGO i don't even know who that. IS i had

1060
00:47:54,239 --> 00:47:56,800
Speaker 1: to look up what a Position Malcolm smith. Plays just

1061
00:47:56,880 --> 00:47:59,880
Speaker 1: give me some defender to possibly do something crazy in this.

1062
00:48:00,160 --> 00:48:02,759
Speaker 1: Game and you're bet on defensive touchdowns Every Super.

1063
00:48:02,800 --> 00:48:04,960
Speaker 3: Bowl, YEAH i like a lot of these. Things you

1064
00:48:05,040 --> 00:48:07,640
Speaker 3: AND i kind of on the same. Page we think

1065
00:48:08,280 --> 00:48:11,040
Speaker 3: very similarly in these. Ways But i'm looking with a

1066
00:48:11,160 --> 00:48:14,360
Speaker 3: defensive point of view at The chiefs pass rushers and,

1067
00:48:14,600 --> 00:48:17,879
Speaker 3: hurts pressure in sacks as like my angle to take.

1068
00:48:17,960 --> 00:48:24,480
Speaker 3: Here so Between Carl, Loftis Jones, bolton And. Omenayu i'm

1069
00:48:24,480 --> 00:48:26,440
Speaker 3: gonna say that, wrong but that's the Way i'm gonna say.

1070
00:48:26,480 --> 00:48:29,160
Speaker 3: IT i think they're interesting, options AND i think the

1071
00:48:29,200 --> 00:48:31,560
Speaker 3: Way i'm going to play. Them So FanDuel has a

1072
00:48:31,680 --> 00:48:34,759
Speaker 3: category called sack fumble and they kind of put them.

1073
00:48:34,800 --> 00:48:38,719
Speaker 3: Together So Carl, LOFTIS i think probably has the most

1074
00:48:39,520 --> 00:48:43,600
Speaker 3: chance percent probability value to. Me so he is sixty

1075
00:48:43,680 --> 00:48:46,400
Speaker 3: five to one to have a sack fumble recovery and

1076
00:48:46,560 --> 00:48:50,080
Speaker 3: twelve to one to have a sack. Fumble Chris jones

1077
00:48:50,080 --> 00:48:53,000
Speaker 3: is sixteen to one sack fumble Oman yahoo's thirteen to

1078
00:48:53,080 --> 00:48:55,879
Speaker 3: one and sixty five to. One those are just absolute long.

1079
00:48:55,920 --> 00:48:58,640
Speaker 3: Shots and in THE mvp, CATEGORY i think it Is.

1080
00:48:58,840 --> 00:49:02,359
Speaker 3: Carloftis he's About last TIME i, LOOKED i got him

1081
00:49:02,400 --> 00:49:03,839
Speaker 3: at two hundred to. ONE i think he was down

1082
00:49:03,880 --> 00:49:05,840
Speaker 3: to one hundred and eighty to. One but to, me

1083
00:49:06,440 --> 00:49:10,239
Speaker 3: the hurts pressure, angle AND i completely get that the

1084
00:49:10,480 --> 00:49:12,440
Speaker 3: fumble in the Last Super, bowl And i've said this

1085
00:49:12,520 --> 00:49:15,239
Speaker 3: before was completely like, Luck like it was a bit

1086
00:49:15,320 --> 00:49:18,919
Speaker 3: different than someone getting to him and forcing, it WHICH

1087
00:49:19,160 --> 00:49:21,919
Speaker 3: i think actually could happen here and is an option

1088
00:49:22,640 --> 00:49:26,960
Speaker 3: that was. Luck this is more statistical, Based SO i

1089
00:49:27,120 --> 00:49:29,759
Speaker 3: do feel like getting to him and causing some sort

1090
00:49:29,800 --> 00:49:32,200
Speaker 3: of turnover is completely on the.

1091
00:49:32,320 --> 00:49:33,719
Speaker 2: Table SO i like that.

1092
00:49:33,880 --> 00:49:38,120
Speaker 3: Bet and then the Reason i'm not attacking the corners

1093
00:49:38,200 --> 00:49:40,920
Speaker 3: like the McDuffie's or things like, that which you know

1094
00:49:41,080 --> 00:49:43,680
Speaker 3: a pick six can be the exact same. SCENARIO i

1095
00:49:43,760 --> 00:49:45,799
Speaker 3: found this a little surprised because It hurts only has

1096
00:49:45,920 --> 00:49:49,520
Speaker 3: five interceptions when trailing the last two. Seasons he's not

1097
00:49:49,600 --> 00:49:52,319
Speaker 3: a really good job at controlling the ball and making

1098
00:49:52,360 --> 00:49:54,600
Speaker 3: sure that he doesn't do that even in that. Scenario

1099
00:49:54,840 --> 00:49:58,040
Speaker 3: But holmes has, nine So cooper De gene things like.

1100
00:49:58,120 --> 00:50:00,320
Speaker 3: THAT i don't, know but that's the Reason i'm not

1101
00:50:00,480 --> 00:50:04,520
Speaker 3: taking The chiefs corners in that. Situation and Then i'll

1102
00:50:04,600 --> 00:50:08,960
Speaker 3: just give you two other. Bets slay under tackles and

1103
00:50:09,000 --> 00:50:12,400
Speaker 3: assists a. Little i'm channeling My Sean curner right, now

1104
00:50:12,680 --> 00:50:14,880
Speaker 3: BUT i kind of like that. Bet against The, Rams

1105
00:50:14,920 --> 00:50:18,800
Speaker 3: sleigh was targeted fourteen, times which actually led to six tackle.

1106
00:50:18,840 --> 00:50:21,960
Speaker 3: Assists other than, that he's had three Versus Washington Green

1107
00:50:22,000 --> 00:50:24,880
Speaker 3: bay In, dallas and he's only had fifteen targets in

1108
00:50:24,920 --> 00:50:28,560
Speaker 3: those three games compared to that fourteen target. Game and

1109
00:50:28,600 --> 00:50:30,760
Speaker 3: then the other, one which is kind of a blanketed,

1110
00:50:30,800 --> 00:50:35,400
Speaker 3: statement BUT cbs and DB's are eighteen and eleven to

1111
00:50:35,520 --> 00:50:38,600
Speaker 3: the tackle and assist under Versus Kansas city this, year

1112
00:50:38,960 --> 00:50:41,439
Speaker 3: he just goes right up the. Middle they do things.

1113
00:50:41,520 --> 00:50:44,920
Speaker 3: Differently they always don't go to the same wide. Receiver to,

1114
00:50:45,040 --> 00:50:46,759
Speaker 3: ME i think there's a lot of options to get that.

1115
00:50:46,920 --> 00:50:48,800
Speaker 3: Under so that was the other BET i.

1116
00:50:49,000 --> 00:50:51,600
Speaker 1: Liked, YEAH i think that makes a lot of. Sense

1117
00:50:51,640 --> 00:50:53,239
Speaker 1: that's a lot of. Defense we'll get the defense some.

1118
00:50:53,440 --> 00:50:55,880
Speaker 1: Love let's go To Super BOWL. MVP i kind of

1119
00:50:55,920 --> 00:50:58,560
Speaker 1: mentioned the. DEFENDERS i like, Here i've got a whole

1120
00:50:58,680 --> 00:51:01,279
Speaker 1: article coming, up kind of rank one to. TEN i,

1121
00:51:01,400 --> 00:51:03,440
Speaker 1: think who are who are the MVPs you want to?

1122
00:51:03,480 --> 00:51:04,160
Speaker 2: Bet who do you want to?

1123
00:51:04,200 --> 00:51:07,080
Speaker 1: Avoid obviously you want to bet quarterbacks first and. Foremost

1124
00:51:07,120 --> 00:51:09,759
Speaker 1: at least we assume they're going to. Win quarterbacks of

1125
00:51:09,800 --> 00:51:12,840
Speaker 1: ONE mvp fifty seven percent of the. Time thirteen of

1126
00:51:12,880 --> 00:51:16,600
Speaker 1: the last eighteen MVPs have simply been the winning quarterbacks

1127
00:51:16,640 --> 00:51:17,560
Speaker 1: seventy two percent of the.

1128
00:51:17,600 --> 00:51:19,960
Speaker 2: Time i'm not breaking news. Here we know this is THE.

1129
00:51:20,080 --> 00:51:22,439
Speaker 2: Nfl you're gonna give it to the winning quarterback most

1130
00:51:22,440 --> 00:51:23,719
Speaker 2: of the. Time non.

1131
00:51:23,800 --> 00:51:29,480
Speaker 1: Quarterbacks last twenty five, years ten, defenders nine. Receivers, well

1132
00:51:29,480 --> 00:51:33,279
Speaker 1: there's no tight. Ends notable With kelsey and you, Know,

1133
00:51:33,440 --> 00:51:36,600
Speaker 1: GODDARD i suppose only seven running, backs none in the

1134
00:51:36,680 --> 00:51:39,239
Speaker 1: last twenty five, years have ONE mvp Twelve davis nineteen

1135
00:51:39,320 --> 00:51:42,239
Speaker 1: ninety eight the last. One and voters are actually instructed

1136
00:51:42,560 --> 00:51:44,600
Speaker 1: to give it to someone on the winning. Team so

1137
00:51:45,200 --> 00:51:47,520
Speaker 1: you want to pick someone from the winning, team you

1138
00:51:47,640 --> 00:51:49,480
Speaker 1: add some of the numbers up in your column of

1139
00:51:50,440 --> 00:51:53,080
Speaker 1: what are the odds for. MVPs five of the last

1140
00:51:53,120 --> 00:51:55,520
Speaker 1: eight MVPs were under plus two. Hundred, okay, well we

1141
00:51:55,600 --> 00:51:58,120
Speaker 1: only have one option for, that and only you should

1142
00:51:58,120 --> 00:51:59,800
Speaker 1: Bet Patrick. Mahomes So i'm gonna tell you why not

1143
00:52:00,040 --> 00:52:01,840
Speaker 1: Bet mahomes and why not to Bet saque?

1144
00:52:01,920 --> 00:52:02,880
Speaker 2: First Then i'll give you a couple of.

1145
00:52:02,920 --> 00:52:06,600
Speaker 1: Picks Now, Mahomes, well, okay that's gonna be a dumb

1146
00:52:06,640 --> 00:52:09,399
Speaker 1: looking pick BECAUSE i Think mahomes is overwhelmingly the most

1147
00:52:09,680 --> 00:52:13,919
Speaker 1: likely guy to WIN. Mvp, however plus one ten plus

1148
00:52:14,040 --> 00:52:15,640
Speaker 1: one oh five is about what you're looking at For

1149
00:52:15,680 --> 00:52:19,960
Speaker 1: Patrick mahomes to WIN, mvp and somebody like me who

1150
00:52:20,120 --> 00:52:22,319
Speaker 1: wants to sneak that extra juice in there and get

1151
00:52:22,360 --> 00:52:24,920
Speaker 1: a little, bit you, know give some outs. Away TYPICALLY

1152
00:52:24,960 --> 00:52:26,680
Speaker 1: i would look to be, like, okay, well how about.

1153
00:52:26,480 --> 00:52:28,760
Speaker 2: Just Playing mahomes rather than Just chiefs minus one minus

1154
00:52:28,800 --> 00:52:31,480
Speaker 2: one ten plus one. Ten how ABOUT i just do. That,

1155
00:52:31,680 --> 00:52:35,759
Speaker 2: well you have to Hit mahomes WINNING mvp Ina chiefs.

1156
00:52:35,560 --> 00:52:38,560
Speaker 1: Win about ninety percent of the time for that to

1157
00:52:38,640 --> 00:52:40,360
Speaker 1: come true on your bet for that to be the

1158
00:52:40,440 --> 00:52:44,040
Speaker 1: right value. Play and the reality is football is, random,

1159
00:52:44,120 --> 00:52:47,000
Speaker 1: man like. That the defenders do weird. Stuff Xavier worthy

1160
00:52:47,080 --> 00:52:49,359
Speaker 1: rips along, Play kelsey catches ten.

1161
00:52:49,440 --> 00:52:52,080
Speaker 2: PAS i don't know something. HAPPENS i went through game

1162
00:52:52,160 --> 00:52:52,719
Speaker 2: by game for the.

1163
00:52:52,800 --> 00:52:56,360
Speaker 1: Season mahomes probably WINS mvp in each game of the,

1164
00:52:56,440 --> 00:53:00,200
Speaker 1: season maybe fourteen or fifteen. Times that's a, lot but

1165
00:53:00,280 --> 00:53:02,600
Speaker 1: it's not ninety. Percent AND i don't think you can

1166
00:53:02,640 --> 00:53:04,439
Speaker 1: Bat mahomes at that. Percent AND i think you're getting

1167
00:53:04,480 --> 00:53:07,520
Speaker 1: too cute if you try. That saquon plus two to

1168
00:53:07,560 --> 00:53:10,319
Speaker 1: eighty you had in the. COLUMN i love the staff from.

1169
00:53:10,400 --> 00:53:14,120
Speaker 1: You since two thousand and, Three Saquon barkley is the

1170
00:53:14,280 --> 00:53:17,080
Speaker 1: first non quarterback to be top two in the. Odds

1171
00:53:17,480 --> 00:53:20,920
Speaker 1: that's a, crazy crazy. Stat saquon's odds are so. Short

1172
00:53:20,960 --> 00:53:24,360
Speaker 1: here created any other non quarterback that we've seen in

1173
00:53:24,400 --> 00:53:26,960
Speaker 1: any recent. Years, Now, look if you go through game by,

1174
00:53:27,000 --> 00:53:30,000
Speaker 1: GAME i get it With Mahomes barkley probably IS mvp

1175
00:53:30,320 --> 00:53:33,120
Speaker 1: like eight to ten, times INCLUDING i think all three

1176
00:53:33,160 --> 00:53:37,400
Speaker 1: playoff games so, far so that's more Than hurts spoiler.

1177
00:53:37,480 --> 00:53:41,719
Speaker 1: Alert but even still at plus two eighty if you

1178
00:53:41,800 --> 00:53:44,520
Speaker 1: do the, Math saquon has to BE mvp in over

1179
00:53:44,640 --> 00:53:47,600
Speaker 1: half of All philadelphia wins to be the right angle

1180
00:53:47,760 --> 00:53:51,120
Speaker 1: on The eagles, here and especially with the Way i'm

1181
00:53:51,160 --> 00:53:53,120
Speaker 1: looking at the run game here and thinking that the

1182
00:53:53,200 --> 00:53:56,279
Speaker 1: explosives may not be, THERE i just can't get. There

1183
00:53:56,320 --> 00:53:58,640
Speaker 1: even though you're, Like, okay if The eagles play how

1184
00:53:58,680 --> 00:54:01,000
Speaker 1: they want, to how who would WIN?

1185
00:54:01,120 --> 00:54:02,239
Speaker 2: Mvp, WELL i think that That's.

1186
00:54:02,280 --> 00:54:05,200
Speaker 1: Saquon but to, ME i don't know that The eagles

1187
00:54:05,200 --> 00:54:06,520
Speaker 1: are going to get to play how they want. To

1188
00:54:06,560 --> 00:54:09,759
Speaker 1: and that's WHY i actually love my Top Super BOWL

1189
00:54:09,840 --> 00:54:14,400
Speaker 1: mvp bet As Jalen hurts plus three eighty BECAUSE i

1190
00:54:14,520 --> 00:54:17,960
Speaker 1: Think hurts AS mvp is a great way to invest

1191
00:54:18,120 --> 00:54:20,840
Speaker 1: In philly sort of hedge Against Kansas city BECAUSE i

1192
00:54:20,960 --> 00:54:24,640
Speaker 1: think if The eagles, LOSE i think it's Because.

1193
00:54:24,440 --> 00:54:26,360
Speaker 2: Hurts was not good. Enough that's Why i'm picking The.

1194
00:54:26,440 --> 00:54:29,400
Speaker 1: Chiefs BUT i also could be wrong about, that and

1195
00:54:29,480 --> 00:54:32,200
Speaker 1: if The eagles, win it's probably Because hurts was good,

1196
00:54:32,280 --> 00:54:34,640
Speaker 1: enough and he did the. Thing he got the tush push,

1197
00:54:34,719 --> 00:54:38,600
Speaker 1: touchdowns he scrambled, some he got the. Passing Last Super,

1198
00:54:38,640 --> 00:54:41,879
Speaker 1: Bowl hurts was plus one. Forty you're getting the same

1199
00:54:42,000 --> 00:54:45,240
Speaker 1: dude at plus three eighty two years, later of, course Because.

1200
00:54:45,080 --> 00:54:45,920
Speaker 2: Saquan is there.

1201
00:54:46,000 --> 00:54:49,320
Speaker 1: Now but the winning quarterback in The Super bowl IS

1202
00:54:49,440 --> 00:54:51,399
Speaker 1: mvp seventy two percent of the time the last couple,

1203
00:54:51,480 --> 00:54:54,080
Speaker 1: decades he only has to BE mvp forty three percent

1204
00:54:54,160 --> 00:54:56,920
Speaker 1: of All eagles wins. Here to, me this is just

1205
00:54:57,040 --> 00:54:59,759
Speaker 1: a smart way to bety a long number on a

1206
00:55:00,080 --> 00:55:03,240
Speaker 1: orderback that we're kind of overlooking because Of Saquon. Barkley

1207
00:55:03,400 --> 00:55:05,759
Speaker 1: So i've got a couple other names to mention, Here

1208
00:55:06,160 --> 00:55:10,680
Speaker 1: but between those, three clearly It's. Mahomes Sequon hurts are

1209
00:55:10,719 --> 00:55:12,960
Speaker 1: the three guys way out ahead of the. Field to,

1210
00:55:13,080 --> 00:55:14,960
Speaker 1: me It's hurts or nobody in that. Group what do

1211
00:55:15,000 --> 00:55:15,560
Speaker 1: you make of those?

1212
00:55:15,640 --> 00:55:16,960
Speaker 2: Three, Yeah i'm with.

1213
00:55:17,040 --> 00:55:18,759
Speaker 3: YOU i hate to always agree with you, here BUT

1214
00:55:18,840 --> 00:55:22,120
Speaker 3: i look for different. Outs so Obviously mahomes is like

1215
00:55:22,600 --> 00:55:25,960
Speaker 3: the obvious option in a number of different. Ways but

1216
00:55:26,280 --> 00:55:28,800
Speaker 3: if you don't Think Kansas city's gonna, win he's not

1217
00:55:28,880 --> 00:55:31,080
Speaker 3: going to win the, award AND i look to say

1218
00:55:31,480 --> 00:55:36,319
Speaker 3: the tush push is just something that is. Predictable it's

1219
00:55:36,400 --> 00:55:38,840
Speaker 3: something that we Know. Philly it's like going forward on

1220
00:55:38,960 --> 00:55:42,360
Speaker 3: certain fourth downs with them going into these. GAMES i

1221
00:55:42,480 --> 00:55:45,759
Speaker 3: think we all look for, predictability something that we Know

1222
00:55:46,200 --> 00:55:48,040
Speaker 3: philly is going to. Do if they get in that,

1223
00:55:48,280 --> 00:55:52,359
Speaker 3: range they're going to use him and, honestly they're going

1224
00:55:52,400 --> 00:55:55,400
Speaker 3: to score a touchdown or two or. Three AND i

1225
00:55:55,480 --> 00:55:59,360
Speaker 3: think that really is a massive advantage To hurts that

1226
00:55:59,680 --> 00:56:02,759
Speaker 3: isn't there To, berkley AND i JUST i think it's

1227
00:56:03,200 --> 00:56:07,560
Speaker 3: really really obvious and also not being portrayed in the.

1228
00:56:07,600 --> 00:56:09,920
Speaker 3: Market SO i completely agree with, you AND i did

1229
00:56:10,000 --> 00:56:12,680
Speaker 3: look this up BECAUSE i was. Curious For hurts to

1230
00:56:12,719 --> 00:56:16,280
Speaker 3: win this, award he would have to be the quarterback

1231
00:56:16,280 --> 00:56:19,560
Speaker 3: who WINS mvp with worse odds than the other. Quarterback

1232
00:56:20,000 --> 00:56:22,880
Speaker 3: and the other times that has happened recently was twenty

1233
00:56:22,960 --> 00:56:28,520
Speaker 3: Twenty brady Over, mahomes twenty, Seventeen Nick foles Over, brady

1234
00:56:29,080 --> 00:56:32,440
Speaker 3: twenty Twelve, flacco and twenty Eleven. Eli so those are

1235
00:56:32,480 --> 00:56:37,760
Speaker 3: your examples recently of quarterbacks who weren't the lower odds

1236
00:56:37,880 --> 00:56:40,960
Speaker 3: quarterback the other one to win the. Award SO i

1237
00:56:41,120 --> 00:56:43,520
Speaker 3: do feel like it's, possible and, honestly there is a

1238
00:56:43,560 --> 00:56:47,719
Speaker 3: play set up for him to win. It and then

1239
00:56:47,760 --> 00:56:50,319
Speaker 3: the other, you why don't you go on for your

1240
00:56:50,360 --> 00:56:53,399
Speaker 3: Other Super BOWL mvp picks and if you have, any

1241
00:56:53,400 --> 00:56:53,959
Speaker 3: AND i have, one.

1242
00:56:53,920 --> 00:56:56,520
Speaker 1: Yea, YEAH i just have one other. ONE i want

1243
00:56:56,560 --> 00:56:58,440
Speaker 1: to like The chiefs here because of COURSE i Like Xavier.

1244
00:56:58,520 --> 00:57:00,840
Speaker 1: WORTHY i went long on him, before or to, me

1245
00:57:01,200 --> 00:57:03,800
Speaker 1: the upside Of Xavier WORTHY mvp is could he score

1246
00:57:03,880 --> 00:57:07,440
Speaker 1: Without mahomes being? Involved because it's Either worthy Or kelsey

1247
00:57:07,440 --> 00:57:08,920
Speaker 1: here the names you look at for The, chiefs but

1248
00:57:09,000 --> 00:57:11,360
Speaker 1: anything they, Do mahomes did. Too And mahomes is A

1249
00:57:11,400 --> 00:57:13,799
Speaker 1: Mahomes and isn't it just gonna be? Him the last

1250
00:57:13,800 --> 00:57:16,760
Speaker 1: Time Travis kelcey would have WON mvp in A chiefs,

1251
00:57:16,840 --> 00:57:19,080
Speaker 1: GAME i literally looked back game by game through the.

1252
00:57:19,120 --> 00:57:21,440
Speaker 1: SCRIPT i think probably back in twenty twenty two we

1253
00:57:21,560 --> 00:57:24,000
Speaker 1: had three touchdowns in a. Game it's been that, long

1254
00:57:24,040 --> 00:57:26,600
Speaker 1: even though he's been so, good Because mahomes is just

1255
00:57:26,680 --> 00:57:29,560
Speaker 1: gonna WIN mvp usually With worthy at least maybe he

1256
00:57:29,640 --> 00:57:32,439
Speaker 1: gets a, run maybe a special teams or trick play

1257
00:57:32,560 --> 00:57:34,440
Speaker 1: that sort of. THING i get there a little bit

1258
00:57:34,480 --> 00:57:37,400
Speaker 1: easier to, me we've said this, before even before we

1259
00:57:37,480 --> 00:57:39,600
Speaker 1: got The Super bowl. Matchup if you want a long,

1260
00:57:39,640 --> 00:57:43,240
Speaker 1: shot non QUARTERBACK, mvp you like The eagles Because hurts

1261
00:57:43,360 --> 00:57:45,920
Speaker 1: is a little less, likely certainly a lot less likely

1262
00:57:45,960 --> 00:57:48,640
Speaker 1: Than mahomes to be the quarterback. WINNER i Like Devonte

1263
00:57:48,760 --> 00:57:51,360
Speaker 1: smith sixty six to. One i'm kind of running it.

1264
00:57:51,480 --> 00:57:53,959
Speaker 1: Back this was the pick THAT i had two years,

1265
00:57:53,960 --> 00:57:55,640
Speaker 1: ago but it was thirty three to one, then so

1266
00:57:55,640 --> 00:57:59,240
Speaker 1: we're getting double the, value literally. Double SO i mentioned,

1267
00:57:59,280 --> 00:58:02,800
Speaker 1: Earlier hurts is awesome against, man not good against the.

1268
00:58:02,920 --> 00:58:05,240
Speaker 1: Zone The chiefs play a lot of. Man But i'm

1269
00:58:05,320 --> 00:58:07,920
Speaker 1: kind of zagging. HERE i Think spags plays more, zone

1270
00:58:08,280 --> 00:58:10,880
Speaker 1: and we've seen him do. That Because DeVante smith three

1271
00:58:10,960 --> 00:58:13,800
Speaker 1: games Against pagnello as ninety nine yards or more all

1272
00:58:13,880 --> 00:58:15,800
Speaker 1: three of the, games six catches are more all three

1273
00:58:15,840 --> 00:58:18,040
Speaker 1: of the. Games you bet one hundred, yard that's seven to.

1274
00:58:18,160 --> 00:58:20,520
Speaker 1: ONE i don't mind that just as a shorter. Way

1275
00:58:20,560 --> 00:58:22,200
Speaker 1: he could do that and still not be THE mvp

1276
00:58:22,560 --> 00:58:26,600
Speaker 1: he nearly did last. Time but to, me if my

1277
00:58:26,760 --> 00:58:29,919
Speaker 1: script basically Is eagles have to pass to be able

1278
00:58:29,960 --> 00:58:32,400
Speaker 1: to do, this and if it's a zone sort of,

1279
00:58:32,520 --> 00:58:35,240
Speaker 1: game we've done that all year LONG Aj brown Versus,

1280
00:58:35,400 --> 00:58:39,720
Speaker 1: Man DeVante Versus zone and the MVPs that come as

1281
00:58:39,720 --> 00:58:42,640
Speaker 1: a receiver is The Julian edelman's The Cooper. Cups these

1282
00:58:42,680 --> 00:58:44,880
Speaker 1: are the guys that get like seven eight nine catches

1283
00:58:44,920 --> 00:58:47,080
Speaker 1: and just chew up yardage and move the stick sall.

1284
00:58:47,160 --> 00:58:50,439
Speaker 1: Game to, me That's DeVante, smith not A J. BROWN

1285
00:58:50,480 --> 00:58:53,280
Speaker 1: Aj brown's the big. Play davante's the move the chains.

1286
00:58:53,320 --> 00:58:54,560
Speaker 2: Guys So i'll be.

1287
00:58:54,680 --> 00:58:57,240
Speaker 1: BETTING i mentioned the defender is just a little little

1288
00:58:57,320 --> 00:58:59,120
Speaker 1: nibble on those come on three hundred and four hundred and.

1289
00:58:59,120 --> 00:59:01,960
Speaker 1: One they're gonna lose just in, case BUT i Think

1290
00:59:02,320 --> 00:59:05,480
Speaker 1: Jalen hurts And DeVante i will play those even Though

1291
00:59:05,520 --> 00:59:07,240
Speaker 1: i'm on The chiefs because it's kind of a good

1292
00:59:07,320 --> 00:59:09,240
Speaker 1: way when you're betting thirty Three Super bowl.

1293
00:59:09,360 --> 00:59:10,680
Speaker 2: Bets some of them are gonna.

1294
00:59:10,720 --> 00:59:12,480
Speaker 1: Lose this to me is a way to kind of

1295
00:59:12,560 --> 00:59:15,120
Speaker 1: cover us all My chiefs positions if The eagles do

1296
00:59:15,200 --> 00:59:17,840
Speaker 1: come through in this. Way So DeVante is sixty six to,

1297
00:59:17,920 --> 00:59:20,040
Speaker 1: one you reacted As DeVante your name.

1298
00:59:20,120 --> 00:59:23,280
Speaker 3: Two, Yeah i'm sitting here shaking my head Because devanta

1299
00:59:23,400 --> 00:59:24,880
Speaker 3: is my long. Shot but the other THING i want

1300
00:59:24,920 --> 00:59:26,720
Speaker 3: to say, is And i'm gonna call it Out fandul

1301
00:59:26,800 --> 00:59:28,560
Speaker 3: right now has him in ninety five to. ONE i

1302
00:59:28,600 --> 00:59:30,520
Speaker 3: bet him at one hundred to one ON, Mvp so

1303
00:59:31,400 --> 00:59:34,080
Speaker 3: that is something to note definitely. There and you said

1304
00:59:34,120 --> 00:59:36,720
Speaker 3: everything On. Devanta the one Note i'll, say which Isn't devanta,

1305
00:59:36,800 --> 00:59:39,200
Speaker 3: specific BUT i just found it kind of. Interesting the

1306
00:59:39,320 --> 00:59:42,480
Speaker 3: last Two Turf Super bowls fifty six and fifty three

1307
00:59:42,960 --> 00:59:47,760
Speaker 3: both one buy wide receivers And. Edelman so maybe the,

1308
00:59:47,840 --> 00:59:51,320
Speaker 3: indoor maybe the fast, track maybe a little bit, more you,

1309
00:59:51,400 --> 00:59:53,600
Speaker 3: know receiving yards or something like. THAT i don't. Know

1310
00:59:53,800 --> 00:59:56,240
Speaker 3: it could be, nothing BUT i looked at my database

1311
00:59:56,280 --> 00:59:59,680
Speaker 3: and found that kind of. Interesting quick, notes quick. Hitters

1312
01:00:00,040 --> 01:00:02,360
Speaker 3: these are just quick. Bets this is everything that we

1313
01:00:02,480 --> 01:00:04,640
Speaker 3: didn't get. TO i know you've been with us for an,

1314
01:00:04,640 --> 01:00:07,120
Speaker 3: hour but this is the final leg here of the

1315
01:00:07,160 --> 01:00:09,640
Speaker 3: twenty twenty four to twenty five. Season So, BRANDON i

1316
01:00:09,680 --> 01:00:12,280
Speaker 3: will let you go. First just quick hit, it run through.

1317
01:00:12,320 --> 01:00:13,120
Speaker 3: It these are some other.

1318
01:00:13,160 --> 01:00:18,120
Speaker 2: Bets thunder see the, thunder lightning round the.

1319
01:00:18,400 --> 01:00:21,680
Speaker 1: Thunder, yeah a couple anytime touchdowns And i'll let you

1320
01:00:21,760 --> 01:00:24,160
Speaker 1: get so many time. Touchdowns Jalen. Hurts you just made

1321
01:00:24,160 --> 01:00:26,400
Speaker 1: the whole case for. Me minus one oh five minus

1322
01:00:26,480 --> 01:00:29,439
Speaker 1: won ten ridiculous. Number he is to, me the most

1323
01:00:29,560 --> 01:00:32,040
Speaker 1: likely touchdown score in this. Game he's at least one

1324
01:00:32,120 --> 01:00:35,160
Speaker 1: rushing touchdown twelve of seventeen full games this, season ten

1325
01:00:35,200 --> 01:00:35,720
Speaker 1: of those last.

1326
01:00:35,840 --> 01:00:37,840
Speaker 2: TWELVE i don't need to do the math for.

1327
01:00:37,960 --> 01:00:40,680
Speaker 1: You like clearly that should not be priced as basically

1328
01:00:40,720 --> 01:00:43,240
Speaker 1: a coin to flow peer From Mike. Clay Jalen hurts

1329
01:00:43,320 --> 01:00:45,960
Speaker 1: led the league and expected rushing touchdowns fourteen and a,

1330
01:00:46,000 --> 01:00:48,880
Speaker 1: half his third highest and most carries inside the. FIVE

1331
01:00:49,400 --> 01:00:51,280
Speaker 1: i think the line should be like minus two hundred

1332
01:00:51,360 --> 01:00:53,640
Speaker 1: or longer, shorter whichever way we do.

1333
01:00:53,720 --> 01:00:54,520
Speaker 2: It the line is off.

1334
01:00:54,600 --> 01:00:57,000
Speaker 1: Here The chiefs a lot of rushing touchdown the quarterback

1335
01:00:57,040 --> 01:01:00,240
Speaker 1: four straight, Games hurts at. Three last game he hit

1336
01:01:00,280 --> 01:01:01,560
Speaker 1: three in The Super bowl against The.

1337
01:01:01,640 --> 01:01:02,840
Speaker 2: Chiefs, also so.

1338
01:01:03,080 --> 01:01:05,880
Speaker 1: Give me the touchdown two or more touchdowns For jalen

1339
01:01:06,040 --> 01:01:08,600
Speaker 1: plus six twenty five quick slip for both of. Those

1340
01:01:09,040 --> 01:01:12,360
Speaker 1: Travis kelce touchdown he did not come through FOUR us

1341
01:01:12,400 --> 01:01:12,760
Speaker 1: against The.

1342
01:01:12,840 --> 01:01:16,000
Speaker 2: Bills My travis kelcey legacy escalater came out.

1343
01:01:16,080 --> 01:01:18,640
Speaker 1: Flat but if you're giving me plus one forty On

1344
01:01:18,760 --> 01:01:21,720
Speaker 1: Travis kelce to score, Touchdown i'm just taking. IT i

1345
01:01:21,840 --> 01:01:23,360
Speaker 1: just don't need to say much more than. That, like

1346
01:01:23,680 --> 01:01:26,400
Speaker 1: here are the numbers last five playoffs For Travis. Kelce

1347
01:01:26,840 --> 01:01:29,360
Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty two catches for fourteen hundred and

1348
01:01:29,400 --> 01:01:32,600
Speaker 1: seven yards and fourteen touchdowns seventy one yards are more

1349
01:01:32,640 --> 01:01:34,360
Speaker 1: all about one a touchdown in eleven of.

1350
01:01:34,480 --> 01:01:35,520
Speaker 2: Fifteen it's.

1351
01:01:35,640 --> 01:01:41,040
Speaker 1: Ridiculous nineteen touchdowns and twenty mahomes playoff games And i'm

1352
01:01:41,040 --> 01:01:43,680
Speaker 1: still going one more time. Here maybe this is the

1353
01:01:43,800 --> 01:01:44,520
Speaker 1: end of the, bet.

1354
01:01:44,800 --> 01:01:47,600
Speaker 2: But Travis kelce likes to get the First chiefs. Touchdown

1355
01:01:47,680 --> 01:01:48,120
Speaker 2: they just go to.

1356
01:01:48,200 --> 01:01:51,120
Speaker 1: Him early and including that's who scored the First chiefs

1357
01:01:51,200 --> 01:01:53,919
Speaker 1: touchdown in the Last Super bowl against The. Eagles he's

1358
01:01:54,000 --> 01:01:56,480
Speaker 1: done this in five of the last nine playoff games

1359
01:01:56,520 --> 01:01:59,080
Speaker 1: for The. Chiefs hope for two of this, year but

1360
01:01:59,200 --> 01:02:02,640
Speaker 1: plus four to twenty five on First chiefs, touchdown fourteen

1361
01:02:02,680 --> 01:02:05,360
Speaker 1: to one First chiefs touchdown and a win For Travis.

1362
01:02:05,440 --> 01:02:09,040
Speaker 1: Kelsey So hurts And, kelsey if it's a playoff, Game

1363
01:02:09,120 --> 01:02:11,440
Speaker 1: i'm probably playing those guys to score a. Touchdown you've

1364
01:02:11,480 --> 01:02:13,640
Speaker 1: heard that case from me over and over. AGAIN i

1365
01:02:13,760 --> 01:02:15,360
Speaker 1: have to believe you Like hurts because you made the

1366
01:02:15,400 --> 01:02:18,920
Speaker 1: touch push case. Here who are your touchdown bats hearts

1367
01:02:19,040 --> 01:02:19,200
Speaker 1: was on.

1368
01:02:19,320 --> 01:02:22,400
Speaker 3: It the two stats will give you seven rush attempts

1369
01:02:22,400 --> 01:02:24,840
Speaker 3: in the red zone in their last three games Versus Kansas.

1370
01:02:24,880 --> 01:02:27,000
Speaker 3: City so definitely gets the. Rock and then you look

1371
01:02:27,000 --> 01:02:29,960
Speaker 3: At Kansas city's defense twenty third and stuff rate twenty

1372
01:02:30,000 --> 01:02:32,600
Speaker 3: eighth in power success on. Defense they're just not going

1373
01:02:32,640 --> 01:02:35,920
Speaker 3: to stop anyone in that situation. Anyway so touchdown and

1374
01:02:35,960 --> 01:02:38,360
Speaker 3: Then Kareem. HUNT i like him to go one and.

1375
01:02:38,560 --> 01:02:40,600
Speaker 3: TWO i mean he's in a touchdown four straight. Games

1376
01:02:40,840 --> 01:02:42,920
Speaker 3: he's in a touchdown all six of his playoff. Games

1377
01:02:43,160 --> 01:02:45,680
Speaker 3: you look At casey carries inside the, Five hunt is,

1378
01:02:45,760 --> 01:02:48,800
Speaker 3: seventeen rest of The chiefs only have. Eleven he hasn't

1379
01:02:48,800 --> 01:02:51,520
Speaker 3: fumbled since twenty twenty. One he has a good story that,

1380
01:02:51,800 --> 01:02:54,280
Speaker 3: is you, know a little, questionable But Andy reied loves

1381
01:02:54,360 --> 01:02:57,040
Speaker 3: him and he's talked about getting, him you, know some

1382
01:02:57,240 --> 01:02:59,360
Speaker 3: love in this. GAME i think he's not gonna have

1383
01:02:59,440 --> 01:03:01,600
Speaker 3: the fantastic, game but he's gonna get a tonally carries

1384
01:03:01,680 --> 01:03:03,800
Speaker 3: inside that five yard line if they get. There so

1385
01:03:04,200 --> 01:03:05,560
Speaker 3: Cream hunt one and, Two.

1386
01:03:06,160 --> 01:03:06,600
Speaker 2: YEAH i like.

1387
01:03:06,640 --> 01:03:08,800
Speaker 1: THAT i Know Jill galant Likes Cream hunt as like

1388
01:03:08,880 --> 01:03:12,080
Speaker 1: the first, Touchdown Kaream hunt And Saguon barkley as first

1389
01:03:12,120 --> 01:03:14,560
Speaker 1: and second touchdown either. ORDER i think he's had the

1390
01:03:14,600 --> 01:03:17,080
Speaker 1: first touchdown both games Because i've been Having i've had

1391
01:03:17,120 --> 01:03:19,920
Speaker 1: The Travis kelce first Touchdown chiefs bet and keep getting

1392
01:03:19,920 --> 01:03:22,880
Speaker 1: any Does cream hunt, Instead SO i think that that checks.

1393
01:03:22,880 --> 01:03:25,240
Speaker 1: Out he's definitely finding the end. ZONE a couple of

1394
01:03:25,440 --> 01:03:29,360
Speaker 1: non brandony BETS i have for, you some bad juice,

1395
01:03:29,400 --> 01:03:30,920
Speaker 1: bets BUT i think are just a good kind of

1396
01:03:30,960 --> 01:03:34,400
Speaker 1: bank roll. Builders DeVante smith's receptions line is four and a.

1397
01:03:34,480 --> 01:03:38,240
Speaker 1: HALF i like four plus receptions at minus two thirty,

1398
01:03:38,280 --> 01:03:40,040
Speaker 1: five So i'm taking an all tier to go. Under

1399
01:03:40,160 --> 01:03:42,240
Speaker 1: not a usual play for, me but he's done that

1400
01:03:42,320 --> 01:03:44,760
Speaker 1: thirteen out of sixteen games this. SEASON i told you

1401
01:03:44,800 --> 01:03:46,320
Speaker 1: earlier about WHY i think he's gonna have a big,

1402
01:03:46,360 --> 01:03:49,280
Speaker 1: Game so Maybe i'm getting two cautious, here but thirteen

1403
01:03:49,320 --> 01:03:50,720
Speaker 1: out of sixteen is a very strong.

1404
01:03:50,840 --> 01:03:52,080
Speaker 2: Play he's the zone.

1405
01:03:52,120 --> 01:03:54,800
Speaker 1: Beater he's at at least four catches every playoff, game

1406
01:03:54,920 --> 01:03:57,120
Speaker 1: eight games in a. ROW i think that is a

1407
01:03:57,240 --> 01:04:00,320
Speaker 1: nice same game parlay edition if you want to add that,

1408
01:04:00,440 --> 01:04:02,400
Speaker 1: in just kind of boost the odds a little. Bit

1409
01:04:02,840 --> 01:04:05,040
Speaker 1: here's another one for, you minus six hundred on This

1410
01:04:05,480 --> 01:04:09,439
Speaker 1: what AM i? Doing eagles successful fourth down? Conversion come,

1411
01:04:09,480 --> 01:04:11,760
Speaker 1: on we all know The eagles are gonna convert a fourth.

1412
01:04:11,800 --> 01:04:14,360
Speaker 1: Down they did it in seventeen of twenty games this

1413
01:04:14,520 --> 01:04:17,120
Speaker 1: year eighty five percent hit. Rate the only three they

1414
01:04:17,200 --> 01:04:21,000
Speaker 1: didn't was Against, Jacksonville washington on A thursday night. Game

1415
01:04:21,040 --> 01:04:23,800
Speaker 1: they dominated In, carolina so in the games where they

1416
01:04:23,920 --> 01:04:26,400
Speaker 1: just didn't need, to they didn't have a fourth. Down,

1417
01:04:26,480 --> 01:04:28,520
Speaker 1: otherwise every single game we got.

1418
01:04:28,440 --> 01:04:29,880
Speaker 2: A push, push basically a fourth.

1419
01:04:29,920 --> 01:04:32,959
Speaker 1: Down so minus six hundred not a Bet i'm gonna

1420
01:04:32,960 --> 01:04:34,920
Speaker 1: give out, often BUT i like.

1421
01:04:35,040 --> 01:04:35,760
Speaker 2: It one.

1422
01:04:35,840 --> 01:04:39,240
Speaker 1: More here another one just if you gotta play the coin.

1423
01:04:39,360 --> 01:04:42,440
Speaker 1: Toss Per Anthony reinhart On, TWITTER i found.

1424
01:04:42,280 --> 01:04:42,960
Speaker 2: Some stats for.

1425
01:04:43,120 --> 01:04:46,360
Speaker 1: You here's the Stats eagles to win the coin toss

1426
01:04:46,440 --> 01:04:49,160
Speaker 1: plus one. Hundred it's A, DraftKings Even juice don't be

1427
01:04:49,240 --> 01:04:51,120
Speaker 1: going minus one oh five somewhere on a coin.

1428
01:04:51,200 --> 01:04:51,640
Speaker 2: Toss come.

1429
01:04:51,680 --> 01:04:55,560
Speaker 1: ON Nfc east teams this year against NON Nfc east

1430
01:04:56,000 --> 01:04:59,360
Speaker 1: thirty one and thirteen winning the coin. Toss what's better

1431
01:04:59,520 --> 01:05:02,120
Speaker 1: data than? That every team in the division over five.

1432
01:05:02,240 --> 01:05:05,480
Speaker 1: Hundred in THE Afc, west every team's under five. Hundred

1433
01:05:05,520 --> 01:05:08,200
Speaker 1: they're the only division like that is the best division

1434
01:05:08,240 --> 01:05:10,600
Speaker 1: in football at coin toss is against the worst Division

1435
01:05:10,960 --> 01:05:14,080
Speaker 1: eagles coin tossed plus one. HUNDRED i got one more

1436
01:05:14,160 --> 01:05:15,800
Speaker 1: crazy long shot at the. End but do you have

1437
01:05:15,800 --> 01:05:17,000
Speaker 1: any other bets before we get to.

1438
01:05:17,120 --> 01:05:21,000
Speaker 3: It, Yeah i'll go quick. HERE i like one sack,

1439
01:05:21,080 --> 01:05:23,400
Speaker 3: bet case on the three way to have the most

1440
01:05:23,440 --> 01:05:25,360
Speaker 3: sacks in the. Game i've talked about a number of

1441
01:05:25,360 --> 01:05:27,680
Speaker 3: different ways why that's gonna. Happen but also on the other,

1442
01:05:27,840 --> 01:05:31,440
Speaker 3: Side mahomes's quick, RELEASE i just think there's more. Opportunities

1443
01:05:32,760 --> 01:05:35,520
Speaker 3: caseeing most punts on the three WAY i think is

1444
01:05:35,560 --> 01:05:38,560
Speaker 3: also really. Intriguing, also just think about, This philly is

1445
01:05:38,560 --> 01:05:41,000
Speaker 3: gonna be going far and fourth, down While Kansas CITY

1446
01:05:41,080 --> 01:05:42,720
Speaker 3: i think is more likely to punt in the. Game

1447
01:05:43,400 --> 01:05:46,600
Speaker 3: the other, direction caseing most field goals three, WAY i

1448
01:05:46,680 --> 01:05:49,520
Speaker 3: think is a great bet and also over two and

1449
01:05:49,560 --> 01:05:51,680
Speaker 3: a half field. Goals raybond talked about this on the.

1450
01:05:51,720 --> 01:05:54,280
Speaker 3: Pod But mahomes' struggles in the red ZONE i think

1451
01:05:54,320 --> 01:05:56,680
Speaker 3: will come out. Here philly kind of tightens up, There

1452
01:05:56,720 --> 01:06:00,320
Speaker 3: SO i do see see some field goal. Opportunities way

1453
01:06:00,320 --> 01:06:05,760
Speaker 3: to attack that Which FanDuel Has bucker field goal attempts

1454
01:06:05,960 --> 01:06:08,040
Speaker 3: instead of field goal makes and there isn't too much

1455
01:06:08,040 --> 01:06:10,280
Speaker 3: of a price, difference SO i do think that is

1456
01:06:10,360 --> 01:06:13,720
Speaker 3: something interesting to look. At raybaund likes. THIS i like it.

1457
01:06:13,800 --> 01:06:17,479
Speaker 3: Too casey under team yard team rushing. YARDS i found

1458
01:06:17,520 --> 01:06:20,320
Speaker 3: it at one seventeen and a. Half there's just again

1459
01:06:20,480 --> 01:06:24,840
Speaker 3: thirty first and second level yards last in open field,

1460
01:06:24,960 --> 01:06:27,320
Speaker 3: yards so they just don't get to that. Level and

1461
01:06:27,400 --> 01:06:29,600
Speaker 3: even if they're ahead and they're winning the, game still

1462
01:06:29,640 --> 01:06:31,600
Speaker 3: think it's gonna be tough to get. THERE i Took

1463
01:06:31,680 --> 01:06:34,400
Speaker 3: Noah gray under longest reception at ten and a. Half

1464
01:06:35,120 --> 01:06:38,040
Speaker 3: he's just getting much less. Snaps kerner likes under one

1465
01:06:38,080 --> 01:06:40,120
Speaker 3: and a half, receptions SO i do feel like a

1466
01:06:40,240 --> 01:06:42,040
Speaker 3: ten and a. Half that's also a good bet at

1467
01:06:42,120 --> 01:06:45,040
Speaker 3: HIS a dot in the last three games two point,

1468
01:06:45,280 --> 01:06:48,320
Speaker 3: eight which is, crazy and Then i'm gonna fire off

1469
01:06:48,320 --> 01:06:50,880
Speaker 3: a few Here eagles to have a rushing. Attempt eagles

1470
01:06:50,920 --> 01:06:53,400
Speaker 3: players have a rushing attempt under three and a. HALF

1471
01:06:53,760 --> 01:06:55,840
Speaker 3: i want to wait on gain well because that's kind

1472
01:06:55,880 --> 01:06:58,560
Speaker 3: of with the concussion what we're like looking at, There

1473
01:06:59,240 --> 01:07:01,880
Speaker 3: so game will. In i'm going to, pass AND i

1474
01:07:01,920 --> 01:07:04,320
Speaker 3: think the other play would be A goddart, rush WHICH

1475
01:07:04,360 --> 01:07:06,920
Speaker 3: i see as like two twenty five two thirty in some.

1476
01:07:07,120 --> 01:07:09,920
Speaker 3: Places eagles have been doing that a lot. LATELY i

1477
01:07:10,000 --> 01:07:11,960
Speaker 3: think this is intriguing AND i get your opinion on.

1478
01:07:12,040 --> 01:07:15,200
Speaker 3: This first turnover in the game is a turnover on,

1479
01:07:15,400 --> 01:07:18,520
Speaker 3: downs which is plus three. FIFTY i already kind of

1480
01:07:18,680 --> 01:07:21,960
Speaker 3: like no, interceptions fumble is kind of, lucky and no

1481
01:07:22,120 --> 01:07:25,919
Speaker 3: turnovers fourteen to. One SO i feel Like philly going

1482
01:07:25,960 --> 01:07:28,200
Speaker 3: for a fourth down and not getting it plus three

1483
01:07:28,280 --> 01:07:29,360
Speaker 3: fifty is an interesting.

1484
01:07:29,400 --> 01:07:31,040
Speaker 2: Option, YEAH i kind of like that.

1485
01:07:31,160 --> 01:07:33,520
Speaker 1: ONE i hadn't seen that one post it, anywhere but you,

1486
01:07:33,600 --> 01:07:36,000
Speaker 1: Know i'm betting the defense. Touchdowns but we talked about

1487
01:07:36,040 --> 01:07:37,760
Speaker 1: these are teams that don't turn it over all that.

1488
01:07:37,880 --> 01:07:40,480
Speaker 1: Much but we've said this. BEFORE i think turnover should.

1489
01:07:40,480 --> 01:07:42,680
Speaker 1: Count turnover on. Downs that should be a real stat

1490
01:07:42,720 --> 01:07:45,440
Speaker 1: that counts toward the turnover. Margin we know The eagles

1491
01:07:45,440 --> 01:07:47,680
Speaker 1: are going to go for on some fourth downs if

1492
01:07:47,720 --> 01:07:49,600
Speaker 1: one of these teams gets kind of between the forties

1493
01:07:49,680 --> 01:07:52,760
Speaker 1: early in the. Game these if we're right that this

1494
01:07:52,960 --> 01:07:57,360
Speaker 1: is a ten twelve fourteen play drives. POSSESSION a turnover

1495
01:07:57,480 --> 01:08:00,200
Speaker 1: on downs is just as damaging as interception or a

1496
01:08:00,240 --> 01:08:02,760
Speaker 1: fumble because you'll want to just give the ball away

1497
01:08:02,840 --> 01:08:03,400
Speaker 1: back to the other.

1498
01:08:03,480 --> 01:08:05,600
Speaker 2: Team you want to keep the, ball keep it.

1499
01:08:05,600 --> 01:08:08,040
Speaker 1: Out of the Other offensi's. Hands SO i do think

1500
01:08:08,040 --> 01:08:10,320
Speaker 1: we're going to get some fourth down conversions. Here fourth

1501
01:08:10,320 --> 01:08:13,720
Speaker 1: down attempts at Least eagles are more likely, convert BUT

1502
01:08:13,760 --> 01:08:16,000
Speaker 1: i know SOME i think on the. Favorites we talked

1503
01:08:16,040 --> 01:08:18,559
Speaker 1: about both teams that convert a fourth. DOWN i think

1504
01:08:18,600 --> 01:08:21,160
Speaker 1: that's a good play, Too BUT i think, yours especially

1505
01:08:21,200 --> 01:08:23,400
Speaker 1: at the juice for that to be the first quote,

1506
01:08:23,439 --> 01:08:27,400
Speaker 1: TURNOVER i like that. One my last bet is to,

1507
01:08:27,560 --> 01:08:30,160
Speaker 1: me we love to just kind of pull the exact does,

1508
01:08:30,240 --> 01:08:32,639
Speaker 1: right and so you can bet the exact score. Outcome

1509
01:08:32,920 --> 01:08:34,760
Speaker 1: that's a little too exact for, me like you're just

1510
01:08:34,840 --> 01:08:37,400
Speaker 1: throwing money at a lottery. Ticket here's my version of

1511
01:08:37,479 --> 01:08:39,040
Speaker 1: that THAT i think actually just a little more of

1512
01:08:39,080 --> 01:08:42,080
Speaker 1: a scripted. Bet it's a three part same game Parlay

1513
01:08:42,760 --> 01:08:48,000
Speaker 1: chiefs first, Quarter eagles Halftime chiefs money a. Lot so

1514
01:08:48,360 --> 01:08:50,880
Speaker 1: the script is The chiefs get their first quarter. Lead

1515
01:08:51,040 --> 01:08:52,840
Speaker 1: you have the stat at the top of the podcast

1516
01:08:53,160 --> 01:08:54,160
Speaker 1: how good they are when they get the.

1517
01:08:54,280 --> 01:08:56,120
Speaker 2: Lead but we talked about.

1518
01:08:56,120 --> 01:08:57,760
Speaker 1: It The eagles are not good in the first quarter

1519
01:08:57,880 --> 01:08:59,760
Speaker 1: on the, season but they're pretty good in the first.

1520
01:08:59,800 --> 01:09:02,800
Speaker 1: Half The chiefs all is twil at halftime in The Super.

1521
01:09:02,840 --> 01:09:04,600
Speaker 1: BOWL i know it's only, four it's all noise and,

1522
01:09:04,640 --> 01:09:07,640
Speaker 1: everything but we're doing narrative bet. Here chiefs haven't had

1523
01:09:07,680 --> 01:09:09,559
Speaker 1: a half any of their Four Super, bowls But mahomes

1524
01:09:09,920 --> 01:09:14,080
Speaker 1: always comes from. Behind So chiefs lead, early seven to,

1525
01:09:14,200 --> 01:09:16,479
Speaker 1: three three nothing and. Whatever maybe they're just like the

1526
01:09:16,560 --> 01:09:18,560
Speaker 1: clock ruins on the first. Quarter first quarter is kind of.

1527
01:09:18,640 --> 01:09:22,040
Speaker 1: Random eagles lead at the, Half chiefs win the. Game

1528
01:09:22,439 --> 01:09:25,720
Speaker 1: it's plus twenty four hundred At DraftKings twenty four to

1529
01:09:25,880 --> 01:09:28,000
Speaker 1: one for a script that feels like the game we

1530
01:09:28,120 --> 01:09:30,040
Speaker 1: kind of watch The chiefs play week after a. WEEK

1531
01:09:30,439 --> 01:09:32,559
Speaker 1: i don't need an exact. Score it's a little too

1532
01:09:32,640 --> 01:09:33,479
Speaker 1: crazy for me on that.

1533
01:09:33,600 --> 01:09:35,120
Speaker 2: One but, this to me is my.

1534
01:09:35,600 --> 01:09:38,240
Speaker 1: Narrative i'm just in on what's going to happen. Here

1535
01:09:38,320 --> 01:09:42,000
Speaker 1: twenty four to, One chiefs first, Quarter eagles, Halftime chiefs full.

1536
01:09:42,040 --> 01:09:43,640
Speaker 2: Time it's. It that's the last bet for.

1537
01:09:43,680 --> 01:09:46,479
Speaker 3: Me for The Super. BOWL i love. That i'm gonna

1538
01:09:46,479 --> 01:09:47,840
Speaker 3: bet that as soon AS i get off. Here all,

1539
01:09:47,920 --> 01:09:51,040
Speaker 3: Right so summarize your best. Bets we've probably been through

1540
01:09:51,040 --> 01:09:53,120
Speaker 3: at least one hundred, here BUT i want you to

1541
01:09:53,439 --> 01:09:55,360
Speaker 3: give the people if they've made it this, far WHICH

1542
01:09:55,400 --> 01:09:58,720
Speaker 3: i hope you, have give them your, best give them a.

1543
01:09:58,760 --> 01:10:02,280
Speaker 1: Summary, yeah OBVIOUSLY i like The, Chiefs So chiefs minus

1544
01:10:02,320 --> 01:10:04,120
Speaker 1: one one and a half and if you have, It

1545
01:10:04,360 --> 01:10:06,560
Speaker 1: chiefs to win from. Behind that's my favorite way to

1546
01:10:06,800 --> 01:10:09,080
Speaker 1: just play The chiefs plus one seventy five or somewhere

1547
01:10:09,080 --> 01:10:14,320
Speaker 1: in that. Range favorite Props saquon under on longest rush worthy,

1548
01:10:14,439 --> 01:10:17,760
Speaker 1: receptions escalator And Jalen hurts on the. Touchdown we went

1549
01:10:17,800 --> 01:10:20,599
Speaker 1: through all those favorite long. Shots you, Know i'm gonna

1550
01:10:20,640 --> 01:10:22,880
Speaker 1: love some of the long shots. HERE i love That

1551
01:10:23,080 --> 01:10:25,599
Speaker 1: Hurts mahomes longest rush of the game, Thing so any

1552
01:10:25,600 --> 01:10:28,840
Speaker 1: of those longest rushes for the, quarterbacks that to me

1553
01:10:29,040 --> 01:10:31,160
Speaker 1: is a key. Angle i'm watching all game AND i

1554
01:10:31,240 --> 01:10:34,120
Speaker 1: love those defensive. Touchdowns so out of all, stuff we,

1555
01:10:34,280 --> 01:10:37,120
Speaker 1: said those are my. Favorites but we're gonna go thirty

1556
01:10:37,160 --> 01:10:40,000
Speaker 1: three and oh, baby everything is. Hitting they literally can't.

1557
01:10:40,000 --> 01:10:41,960
Speaker 1: IT i gave out like five SUPER mdp. Bets it's,

1558
01:10:42,000 --> 01:10:45,040
Speaker 1: Fine we're gonna win some. Money we need some nacho,

1559
01:10:45,200 --> 01:10:47,600
Speaker 1: Cheese velveta and, whatever depth and we're gonna have a

1560
01:10:47,640 --> 01:10:48,599
Speaker 1: fun time On sunday.

1561
01:10:48,640 --> 01:10:52,240
Speaker 3: Night all, Right, well no deviled, eggs but other than,

1562
01:10:52,280 --> 01:10:54,160
Speaker 3: that we will move on. Here that'll do it for

1563
01:10:54,240 --> 01:10:57,439
Speaker 3: The Action network podcast For Super Bowl Best bets, Episode

1564
01:10:57,760 --> 01:11:00,639
Speaker 3: do not forget to download the free award Winning Action

1565
01:11:00,720 --> 01:11:02,960
Speaker 3: network app to see more from all of Our Action

1566
01:11:03,080 --> 01:11:06,080
Speaker 3: network contributors and. Experts plus you can track your own.

1567
01:11:06,200 --> 01:11:09,960
Speaker 3: Picks also check out The Action Network discord server chop

1568
01:11:10,040 --> 01:11:13,439
Speaker 3: it up with experts and fellow gamblers during these. Games Listen,

1569
01:11:13,560 --> 01:11:16,840
Speaker 3: Sean Nick giffin. Me everyone's gonna be in there during

1570
01:11:16,880 --> 01:11:19,479
Speaker 3: The Super. Bowl Plus nick's gonna have a halftime show

1571
01:11:19,880 --> 01:11:21,840
Speaker 3: as well during The Super bowl in the, discord so

1572
01:11:21,920 --> 01:11:23,639
Speaker 3: make sure you check it. Out there is a link

1573
01:11:23,720 --> 01:11:26,599
Speaker 3: to join in the description of this. Podcast, plus if

1574
01:11:26,640 --> 01:11:28,000
Speaker 3: you want to tell some of the bets that we

1575
01:11:28,080 --> 01:11:30,040
Speaker 3: gave out, today make sure to look for the quick

1576
01:11:30,120 --> 01:11:33,400
Speaker 3: slip link in the podcast and video description or go

1577
01:11:33,560 --> 01:11:38,240
Speaker 3: to actionnetwork dot com slash Bet. Now That's actionnework dot

1578
01:11:38,320 --> 01:11:41,720
Speaker 3: com slash Bet. Now we will be back me And

1579
01:11:41,800 --> 01:11:45,240
Speaker 3: Brandon sunday night for the final recap episode of the.

1580
01:11:45,320 --> 01:11:47,719
Speaker 3: Season we're gonna go over the game and we're also

1581
01:11:47,800 --> 01:11:50,400
Speaker 3: going to talk about some futures for next. Season we're

1582
01:11:50,400 --> 01:11:52,080
Speaker 3: gonna get a little bit of a look ahead From

1583
01:11:52,120 --> 01:11:54,679
Speaker 3: brandon on what he likes. There thank you for sticking

1584
01:11:54,760 --> 01:11:58,719
Speaker 3: with us and listening all season. Long enjoy The Super,

1585
01:11:58,760 --> 01:12:02,000
Speaker 3: bowl each your, snaw eat your good, food good luck with,

1586
01:12:02,080 --> 01:12:05,599
Speaker 3: everything bona, chance enjoy the, game and enjoy the. Weekend.

1587
01:12:05,640 --> 01:12:25,720
Speaker 3: Everybody Action network reminds you please gamble. Responsibly if you

1588
01:12:26,040 --> 01:12:28,760
Speaker 3: or someone you care about has a gambling, problem help

1589
01:12:28,880 --> 01:12:31,559
Speaker 3: is available twenty four to seven at one eight Hundred

1590
01:12:31,600 --> 01:12:32,000
Speaker 3: gambler