WEBVTT - Cliff Notes: The Perfect Investing Plan with Ian Dunlap

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<v Speaker 1>Earners, what's going on?

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<v Speaker 2>You are now locked in the cliff Notes, the number

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<v Speaker 2>one place for investment strategies, tips and advice. Make sure

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<v Speaker 2>you have your notepads ready, but more importantly, make sure

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<v Speaker 2>you're ready to execute on the information. All right, So, earners,

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<v Speaker 2>the time has come, eylu Grad School is here, and

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<v Speaker 2>you know how.

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<v Speaker 1>We bringing it.

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<v Speaker 2>Over one hundred past webinars, weekly webinars from industry experts,

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<v Speaker 1>But yeah, shout out to al the.

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<v Speaker 3>Top performing assets of so silver took the lead. It

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<v Speaker 3>drew down thirty four percent at one point and went

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<v Speaker 3>up one hundred and twenty seven. I know everybody was

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<v Speaker 3>so happy about gold. Gold had a lower draw down

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<v Speaker 3>but also had a lower return. Then small cap stocks

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<v Speaker 3>took off like crazy, and then crude had a nice

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<v Speaker 3>bounce off of that low.

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<v Speaker 1>That happened.

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<v Speaker 3>But if you look at the bond market, the bond

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<v Speaker 3>market is a hedge. Didn't draw down that much, but

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<v Speaker 3>it didn't grow that much, right, so a lot of

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<v Speaker 3>you were asking about how to include bonds into it.

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<v Speaker 3>It's not going to give you the best game. It's

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<v Speaker 3>going to give you a decent a decent hedge. However,

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<v Speaker 3>so we can see the returns here if you want

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<v Speaker 3>to screenshot this Silver forty seven percent. Small cap was

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<v Speaker 3>eighteen percent, Canadian stocks two point eight, corporate bonds nine

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<v Speaker 3>point seven. Once again to Tech two index, very simple formula,

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<v Speaker 3>uh Tech performing the best in twenty twenty, hands down,

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<v Speaker 3>So you can see information technology on average was at

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<v Speaker 3>eighty nine percent assuming discretion Earia was second. Third was communication.

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<v Speaker 3>This mix will not change. I know some of your wondering.

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<v Speaker 3>Will engine energy turn around in twenty twenty one to

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<v Speaker 3>twenty two, They're going to be at the bottom of

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<v Speaker 3>the barrel. Financials may bump up this year, more so

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<v Speaker 3>probably in twenty twenty three if interest rates go up,

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<v Speaker 3>but until then tech will be the dominant leader. Now,

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<v Speaker 3>let's look at currencies. The Swiss frank only drew down

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<v Speaker 3>two point one percent, so it only lost two point

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<v Speaker 3>one percent of its value. I want you to go

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<v Speaker 3>look at the correlation for how they handle COVID versus

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<v Speaker 3>other countries, and the Chinese wand only lost two point

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<v Speaker 3>nine percent, so the Australian dollar lost more twenty one

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<v Speaker 3>point five and the rebounded well. But we want to

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<v Speaker 3>put our money into things that have lowest draw down.

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<v Speaker 3>Big gains are great, but not everyone is able to

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<v Speaker 3>sit through a drawdown of fifty percent of forty five percent.

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<v Speaker 3>The first thing you need to look at at any

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<v Speaker 3>asset is what's the highest draw down over a ten

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<v Speaker 3>year period that asset has. That wild tell you how

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<v Speaker 3>much safety you have in it. The biggest win is

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<v Speaker 3>of twenty twenty Novavak. I don't think it would be

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<v Speaker 3>that great this year, but it had a hell of

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<v Speaker 3>a run. Tesla. Of course, Tessa is going to be

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<v Speaker 3>to the moon. Maderna solid zone. Of course, Bitcoin on

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<v Speaker 3>overshot is happy because he didn't sell all his coins

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<v Speaker 3>and there was a bunch of IPOs, and I think

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<v Speaker 3>that the SPAC thing is done, even though there's maybe

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<v Speaker 3>one or two companies that have done a decent job

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<v Speaker 3>with him and the biggest losers Carnival. I hope they're

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<v Speaker 3>able to rebound because if not, there's a lot of

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<v Speaker 3>people that are going to lose their jobs and never

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<v Speaker 3>be able to recover. Energy stocks, Air Canada crew and

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<v Speaker 3>then the Footsie one hundred. So a lot of you

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<v Speaker 3>are looking for international exposure. I could argue that Silicon

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<v Speaker 3>Valley has the best talent from most nations that have

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<v Speaker 3>been drafted here. The international exposure that you need for

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<v Speaker 3>most global corporations are going to be domestic based. So

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<v Speaker 3>I need you to type in chat, what is the

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<v Speaker 3>return you want to get this year? Because this year

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<v Speaker 3>is not going to be like last, so the probability

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<v Speaker 3>of getting one hundred percent return in the year is

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<v Speaker 3>going to be a lot lower. I want you to

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<v Speaker 3>set the baseline for what you want to get in

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<v Speaker 3>terms of return and be happy with that, and anything

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<v Speaker 3>above that is extra. For those of you who started

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<v Speaker 3>last year, I'm sorry, you're not gonna get sixty percent

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<v Speaker 3>on accident. This year, you'll be able to squeeze out

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<v Speaker 3>twenty five. You came in at a great time, but

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<v Speaker 3>I want us to be realistic. We're going to be

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<v Speaker 3>more on the tech side, maybe twenty to twenty eight

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<v Speaker 3>percent opposed to sixty and seventy and chart time. So

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<v Speaker 3>every week I'm going to go over the same and

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<v Speaker 3>I was going to give a new way to get

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<v Speaker 3>into the market. I'm actually a why the hell unch y'all?

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<v Speaker 3>Using the two hunred day moving average?

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<v Speaker 1>Ask him again, man, why can you.

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<v Speaker 3>Explain I because some people might be new, this might

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<v Speaker 3>be their first time ever watching market Monday. Can you

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<v Speaker 3>just explain what the two hundred day moving average is?

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<v Speaker 3>It takes a last two hundred days or collection of

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<v Speaker 3>data and then it marks off on this line where

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<v Speaker 3>the average is. So, if you're looking for an easy

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<v Speaker 3>and simple way to consistently get in, this is Microsoft

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<v Speaker 3>and it went down today. So if you look at

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<v Speaker 3>a daily chart, depending on what time horizon you look over,

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<v Speaker 3>Microsoft came down exactly to the spot and bounced up.

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<v Speaker 3>You can see the high few days prior with twenty seven.

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<v Speaker 3>This is around two thirteen. Give it about four or

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<v Speaker 3>five weeks you'll be able. So for those of you

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<v Speaker 3>who are like, hey, you guys never tell us how

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<v Speaker 3>to get get in, even though we gave five ways

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<v Speaker 3>last year, I'm going to focus on the two hundred

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<v Speaker 3>day moving average. And this is also a place where

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<v Speaker 3>you can start to load the boat. Load the boat.

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<v Speaker 3>This is where a lot of technicians, prop firms, hedge funds,

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<v Speaker 3>fund of fund managers are looking to get in. So

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<v Speaker 3>it's a universally respected indicator because it's not new, because

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<v Speaker 3>it's not sexy, and only nine people in Nova scotiad

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<v Speaker 3>know about it, and then somebody from Atlanta flew back

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<v Speaker 3>and dropped it to everybody in midtown. It's not valued

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<v Speaker 3>as much, but you need a system that's super easy

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<v Speaker 3>that you can use over and over again, and it's

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<v Speaker 3>an easy way to buy. So when we drop down

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<v Speaker 3>to and this is only for quality companies, only for quality.

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<v Speaker 3>So if you.

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<v Speaker 2>Find this episode is brought to you by P and

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<v Speaker 4>An illegal alien from Guatemala charged with raping a child

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<v Speaker 4>in Massachusetts. An MS thirteen gang member from Al Salvador

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<v Speaker 4>accused of murdering a Texas. Man of Venezuelan charged with

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<v Speaker 4>filming and selling child pornography in Michigan. These are just

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<v Speaker 4>some of the heinous migrant criminals caught because of President

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<v Speaker 4>Donald J. Trump's leadership. I'm Christy nom the United States

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<v Speaker 4>Secretary of Homeland Security. Under President Trump, attempted illegal border

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<v Speaker 4>crossings are at the lowest levels ever recorded, and over

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<v Speaker 4>one hundred thousand illegal aliens have been arrested. If you

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<v Speaker 4>are here illegally, your next you will be fined nearly

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<v Speaker 4>one thousand dollars a day, imprisoned and deported, you will

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<v Speaker 4>never return. But if you register using our CBP home

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<v Speaker 4>app and leave now, you could be allowed to return legally.

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<v Speaker 4>Do what's right. Leave now. Under President Trump America's laws,

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<v Speaker 4>border and families will be protected.

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<v Speaker 1>Spots about the United States Department at Homeland Security piece.

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<v Speaker 3>Hey, it doesn't apply to that because it's going to

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<v Speaker 3>burn through the two hundred. But a good company is

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<v Speaker 3>gonna come down around this area, maybe float a little

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<v Speaker 3>bit lower in three or four weeks, start to go up.

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<v Speaker 3>This is the perfect investment plan for twenty twenty one.

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<v Speaker 3>Write this down and I can hear y'all on YouTube

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<v Speaker 3>on a replay four long term positions for the year.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm gonna be real. I've talked to at least six

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<v Speaker 3>or seven hundred people that missed out on some great

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<v Speaker 3>companies because they were switching company. Oh. I like tests,

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<v Speaker 3>but I'm gonna get out of it and I'm gonna

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<v Speaker 3>get in iniol. I'm not mad at it. But whatever

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<v Speaker 3>you pick, I want you to marry the positions that

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<v Speaker 3>you have type and chat. Marry the positions now. If

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<v Speaker 3>you're wrong and the company's no good or the thesis

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<v Speaker 3>changes great. But if you have a great company, hold

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<v Speaker 3>on to it. Hold on to it. Like I said,

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<v Speaker 3>it's like having a star basketball player. I'm not trading

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<v Speaker 3>Michael Jordan for anything. Do not care?

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<v Speaker 1>Do not care.

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<v Speaker 3>Number Two twelve swing trades on the year, so that

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<v Speaker 3>whether that's futures, any other assets or derivatives, I want

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<v Speaker 3>you to take twelve. That's one per month. You should

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<v Speaker 3>know what the games that will come from that. And

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<v Speaker 3>then for short term investing, I want you to do

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<v Speaker 3>twenty four. This is not apply to the Snipers or

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<v Speaker 3>anybody in Alpha, but for everyone else. If you're looking

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<v Speaker 3>at futures, you can do twenty four trades and hit

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<v Speaker 3>a ridiculous return and be okay, okay, key point here.

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<v Speaker 3>I only want you to take trades that you know

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<v Speaker 3>will not lose. And here's how to know if it

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<v Speaker 3>won't lose. If you have to ask someone, Hey man,

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<v Speaker 3>Hey Troy, you think if I get in right here?

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<v Speaker 3>If I have to ask, it's not good. Your intuition

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<v Speaker 3>is already telling you. And then also when you take

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<v Speaker 3>a Saturday and go through the entire market, map out

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<v Speaker 3>where you want to get in those same bizones on

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<v Speaker 3>a macro level. Once you pare it down to your

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<v Speaker 3>entre daytime frames, they're gonna line up and you're gonna

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<v Speaker 3>have a chance to take a trade there as well,

0:10:58.559 --> 0:11:01.760
<v Speaker 3>and be okay. These are the top ten lessons to

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<v Speaker 3>improve your performance with trading. Number one, keep your losses small.

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<v Speaker 3>Your win should be ten times bigger than your losses.

0:11:10.000 --> 0:11:13.000
<v Speaker 3>Easy risk reward. You want to risk one to make ten.

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<v Speaker 3>Number two, don't chase a move. If you miss it,

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<v Speaker 3>let it go. Kudos to the snipers. You've seen me

0:11:17.800 --> 0:11:20.280
<v Speaker 3>do this, Send a text, miss my move and be

0:11:20.360 --> 0:11:21.160
<v Speaker 3>frustrated as hell.

0:11:21.760 --> 0:11:22.160
<v Speaker 1>I get it.

0:11:22.640 --> 0:11:25.240
<v Speaker 3>But once you're if you want to get into a position,

0:11:25.320 --> 0:11:27.680
<v Speaker 3>let's say at two hundred and forty four bucks, once

0:11:27.760 --> 0:11:30.880
<v Speaker 3>it goes to two forty five, if you're trading it,

0:11:31.040 --> 0:11:34.200
<v Speaker 3>don't touch it. Don't get distracted and miss an excellent setup.

0:11:34.840 --> 0:11:37.559
<v Speaker 3>Do not trade against the market. The market can eat

0:11:37.640 --> 0:11:41.880
<v Speaker 3>can only go north or south. Even with range bound

0:11:41.960 --> 0:11:45.480
<v Speaker 3>people like, oh, well we're ranging and we're consolidating. Man,

0:11:45.840 --> 0:11:48.240
<v Speaker 3>the move is either slowed down because it's going to

0:11:48.280 --> 0:11:51.920
<v Speaker 3>explode to the upside or downside. That's why everybody, oh man,

0:11:51.920 --> 0:11:54.920
<v Speaker 3>Apple slowed down okay, and then we saw it took

0:11:55.000 --> 0:11:58.400
<v Speaker 3>off like crazy. There is build up. I need you

0:11:58.520 --> 0:12:01.840
<v Speaker 3>to know this. When the market is constricting or getting tight,

0:12:02.720 --> 0:12:05.280
<v Speaker 3>that is the time to set up your moves on

0:12:05.440 --> 0:12:07.480
<v Speaker 3>a large So if you're looking at a day chart

0:12:07.600 --> 0:12:10.040
<v Speaker 3>or something higher, a breakout move is going to come.

0:12:11.640 --> 0:12:13.480
<v Speaker 3>Have the patience to wait three or four weeks for

0:12:13.520 --> 0:12:16.520
<v Speaker 3>it to break in your favor. Everyone's talking about financial freedom,

0:12:17.640 --> 0:12:19.360
<v Speaker 3>but you can't wait four to five weeks. You're trying

0:12:19.400 --> 0:12:22.800
<v Speaker 3>to flip. Don't flip. The money will be there. Do

0:12:22.960 --> 0:12:26.120
<v Speaker 3>not trade when the volume is low. I'm begging you,

0:12:26.160 --> 0:12:28.040
<v Speaker 3>you're going to get your head chopped off, your account

0:12:28.040 --> 0:12:32.080
<v Speaker 3>cut in half, and maybe margin call. Wait until volume

0:12:32.160 --> 0:12:34.000
<v Speaker 3>is at a peak so your orders can get filled.

0:12:34.320 --> 0:12:36.559
<v Speaker 3>You can get exits on your trades if you have

0:12:36.600 --> 0:12:39.800
<v Speaker 3>a predetermined area that you want to get out, and

0:12:39.920 --> 0:12:42.360
<v Speaker 3>then that way you won't be sitting in a loss

0:12:42.400 --> 0:12:45.120
<v Speaker 3>potentially for three or four hours either. And then, do

0:12:45.280 --> 0:12:48.439
<v Speaker 3>not trade overtrade under any circumstances. If your plan is

0:12:48.480 --> 0:12:50.319
<v Speaker 3>to take twenty four in the year, take twenty four

0:12:51.280 --> 0:12:54.120
<v Speaker 3>number seven. Do not increase your position size or dollar

0:12:54.160 --> 0:12:56.480
<v Speaker 3>amount and a trade to try and recover. So let's

0:12:56.520 --> 0:13:01.040
<v Speaker 3>say you are trading twenty contracts features and you lost

0:13:01.240 --> 0:13:03.320
<v Speaker 3>seven grand I do not want you to go trade

0:13:03.360 --> 0:13:06.319
<v Speaker 3>forty contracts just try and make up for it, because

0:13:06.360 --> 0:13:09.640
<v Speaker 3>you already got the direction wrong. So if you wrecked

0:13:09.679 --> 0:13:11.959
<v Speaker 3>a camera, I can't put you in a ferrari and

0:13:12.000 --> 0:13:15.840
<v Speaker 3>then let you wreck that as well. Come back trade

0:13:15.880 --> 0:13:17.679
<v Speaker 3>the same size, and if you're doing a one to

0:13:17.800 --> 0:13:20.880
<v Speaker 3>ten risk of reward ratio, you don't need that many

0:13:20.920 --> 0:13:22.800
<v Speaker 3>trades to recover the loss and be back in profit.

0:13:23.559 --> 0:13:23.960
<v Speaker 3>Number eight.

0:13:24.000 --> 0:13:24.400
<v Speaker 1>This is key.

0:13:24.480 --> 0:13:28.920
<v Speaker 3>Do not micromanager trades. Let them run once you secure profit.

0:13:29.160 --> 0:13:30.600
<v Speaker 3>So if you get in the trade and unlet's say

0:13:30.600 --> 0:13:33.880
<v Speaker 3>you're up ten percent and you lock in two percent,

0:13:34.559 --> 0:13:37.960
<v Speaker 3>let it run. If your target is forty percent, let

0:13:38.040 --> 0:13:40.880
<v Speaker 3>it go there. A lot of you are self sabotaging,

0:13:40.920 --> 0:13:43.079
<v Speaker 3>and we all do it and it takes time to

0:13:43.120 --> 0:13:46.120
<v Speaker 3>get over it. But a lot of people are self

0:13:46.120 --> 0:13:49.360
<v Speaker 3>sabotaging and cutting off winners when you could have let

0:13:49.640 --> 0:13:52.520
<v Speaker 3>certain stocks or trades run up thirty forty to fifty

0:13:52.600 --> 0:13:54.560
<v Speaker 3>eighty percent last year, and you cut them off at

0:13:54.559 --> 0:13:57.440
<v Speaker 3>ten percent. Know what your exit is before you enter

0:13:57.520 --> 0:13:59.719
<v Speaker 3>the trade. Number nine, do not trade if you're in

0:13:59.720 --> 0:14:02.000
<v Speaker 3>the bad. If you got into argument with your kids

0:14:02.600 --> 0:14:04.840
<v Speaker 3>and you made them breakfast and they spilled juice juice

0:14:04.840 --> 0:14:06.760
<v Speaker 3>all over your keyboard, don't trade that day. I'm telling

0:14:06.760 --> 0:14:09.120
<v Speaker 3>you got into a fight with your significant other, don't

0:14:09.160 --> 0:14:11.559
<v Speaker 3>do it. And number ten this is the most important.

0:14:11.760 --> 0:14:15.000
<v Speaker 3>Do not trade unless you know what your statistical edge

0:14:15.120 --> 0:14:17.800
<v Speaker 3>is in the market. You should know your win percentage,

0:14:18.120 --> 0:14:21.000
<v Speaker 3>your profit factor, the best time to trade, and the

0:14:21.120 --> 0:14:24.720
<v Speaker 3>best asset that you trade. Once again, your win percentage,

0:14:25.080 --> 0:14:28.960
<v Speaker 3>your profit factor, the asset that you trade the best,

0:14:29.080 --> 0:14:31.920
<v Speaker 3>and what time of day you trade that best. This

0:14:32.080 --> 0:14:35.440
<v Speaker 3>is an off emotion. This has to be hard data

0:14:36.280 --> 0:14:36.680
<v Speaker 3>and that's it.

0:14:36.920 --> 0:14:39.160
<v Speaker 2>To hear a more extended conversation, make sure to check

0:14:39.200 --> 0:14:42.440
<v Speaker 2>out our live YouTube show Market Monday's every Monday, eight

0:14:42.480 --> 0:14:45.800
<v Speaker 2>pm Easter Standard time seven pm Central, and check out

0:14:45.840 --> 0:14:49.480
<v Speaker 2>the Market Monday's podcast on iHeart, Spotify, Apple or wherever

0:14:49.520 --> 0:14:50.600
<v Speaker 2>you download your podcast.

0:14:50.720 --> 0:14:50.840
<v Speaker 5>Now.

0:14:53.200 --> 0:14:59.200
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