Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Countries across Africa are scrambling to negotiate with the US
Speaker 2: after President Trump suspended the reciprocal tariffs for ninety days.
Speaker 3: Nothing's over yet, but we have a tremendous amount of
Speaker 3: spirit from other countries. We have many other countries, as
Speaker 3: you know, many more than seventy five, and they all
Speaker 3: want to come. Somebody had to do what we did,
Speaker 3: and I did a ninety day pause for the people
Speaker 3: that didn't retaliate.
Speaker 2: The Southern African Kingdom of Lisutu was facing a fifty
Speaker 2: percent terraff before the reprise, and the government is soon
Speaker 2: to be in negotiations with the US to stop the
Speaker 2: crippling tariff from returning, warning of a crisis. If the
Speaker 2: negotiations fail.
Speaker 4: We will be terribly affected. We are going to have
Speaker 4: file liquidity issues. Symptoms of that foreign talency have about
Speaker 4: six months came up, which is a comfortable about that
Speaker 4: situation will change.
Speaker 2: On this week's Next Africa podcast, we look at what
Speaker 2: the fallout has been from these tariffs and what nations
Speaker 2: like Lisutu can hope to get from negotiating with the US.
Speaker 2: I'm Jennifer Zabasanja and this is the Next Africa Podcast,
Speaker 2: bringing you one story each week from the continent driving
Speaker 2: the future of global growth with the context only Bloomberg
Speaker 2: can provide. Joining me to discuss this today is economist
Speaker 2: Martin van Dusberg, head of economics at Cape Peninsula University
Speaker 2: of Technology. Martin, thank you so much for joining us.
Speaker 2: So to start today, Martin, let's hear from someone who
Speaker 2: is deeply involved in the negotiations. One of the countries,
Speaker 2: as we mentioned, facing some of the highest tariffs under
Speaker 2: President Trump's trade policies is Lisutu. Earlier this week we
Speaker 2: were able to have on the show Lisutu's Trade Minister,
Speaker 2: Morheti Sdile, and we talked to him about the ongoing
Speaker 2: negotiations and whether he's clear or not on what the
Speaker 2: US actually wants lest you to to do. Let's just
Speaker 2: take a listen very quickly and we'll talk to you after.
Speaker 4: They should be in a position to advise us what
Speaker 4: else they find it difficult for themselves to establish in Lesutu.
Speaker 4: It could be anything really, For instance, that there's been
Speaker 4: some suggestions that we should be by hertain things from
Speaker 4: them in terms of greens. We die quite a lot
Speaker 4: in South Africa and it's fair affordable and let to
Speaker 4: keep that market. But we have to understand if there
Speaker 4: is any problem for them accessing the market that could
Speaker 4: be nontally related.
Speaker 2: And I wonder Minister, when you and the rest of
Speaker 2: the government there the country heard about this fifty percent
Speaker 2: tire of initial did you run the numbers? How could
Speaker 2: that potentially affect the economy if in fact it does
Speaker 2: stay after the pause.
Speaker 1: Yes, we have run the numbers.
Speaker 4: Directly On the fire line is the twelve thousand jobs
Speaker 4: that we have here, which is going to now at
Speaker 4: the know the day translated to feather forty thousand jobs.
Speaker 4: That depends on the twelve thousand, we will be terribly affected.
Speaker 4: We are going to have liquidity issues in terms of
Speaker 4: foreign turrency. We have about six months cover, which is
Speaker 4: very comfortable, but that situation will change.
Speaker 2: Martin, thank you so much for joining us. You can
Speaker 2: hear Minister Chadilla's frustration there when we were speaking earlier
Speaker 2: this week. Maybe you can start us off by explaining
Speaker 2: why SU two faced such high tariffs from the Trump administration,
Speaker 2: especially considering how it pales in comparison to some of
Speaker 2: these other countries that are also facing tariffs.
Speaker 1: It's a difficult question to answer because Trump's decision making
Speaker 1: has been fairly erratic, to say the least in terms
Speaker 1: of across the born tariffs and then specific tariffs and
Speaker 1: so on. But in essence, what I see from the
Speaker 1: Trump tariff reshim if we can call it, that is,
Speaker 1: and he defends it in saying that he wants to
Speaker 1: produce as much more goods in America, and textiles is
Speaker 1: one of the areas that he has seen can be produced,
Speaker 1: and I think it comes really from there. So if
Speaker 1: you look at the Suitu textile industry, that is predominantly
Speaker 1: what is being exported to the United States, and yeah,
Speaker 1: fifty percent would make it obviously totally unachievable. If I
Speaker 1: can jump straight into the way I've been following Trump
Speaker 1: quite closely with this and what I say following to
Speaker 1: understand because of the impact in all the different economies
Speaker 1: and what could come out of this is potentially I
Speaker 1: think minerals. One of Nasuta's biggest driving industries is diamond binding.
Speaker 1: Luti has diamonds but based metals uranium. They've even got
Speaker 1: deposits of crude oil gas et cetera. These are not
Speaker 1: being exported to the United States at the moment. And
Speaker 1: I think wherever I have seen Trump, we even saw
Speaker 1: it with the Ukraine War. If we can go back there,
Speaker 1: you know, he said to Zelansky, We're we're gonna stop
Speaker 1: supporting you, and then all of a sudden, but hang on,
Speaker 1: you know, can we have your mineral rights? I honestly
Speaker 1: feel that what Trump is doing is is targeting different
Speaker 1: countries based on a what is the particular export that
Speaker 1: is coming from that country, what's the relationship with that country?
Speaker 1: Does that country have a strong tie with Russia, China
Speaker 1: and other allies which there use the word of enemies
Speaker 1: of what he sees as enemies of the United States.
Speaker 1: So it's more than just the textiles, it's where does
Speaker 1: the suit to fit in his biggest scheme of things.
Speaker 1: That's what I believe we need to look at.
Speaker 2: That means that you think that there is a bigger,
Speaker 2: wider plan with these triffs, Is that essentially what you're saying,
Speaker 2: I do.
Speaker 1: I think that he will negotiate the tariffs down with
Speaker 1: countries where he sees a future benefit to the United
Speaker 1: States or to the Donald Trump plan. And I think
Speaker 1: we're already starting to see that. So he immediately put
Speaker 1: on the ninety day moratorium or the ninety day suspension,
Speaker 1: and I think what that is His aim there is
Speaker 1: to give countries an opportunity to say, well, how do
Speaker 1: we deal with this? You know? Are we if we
Speaker 1: just go back with retaliatory tariffs, which we've seen, you know,
Speaker 1: then it's truly going to become a tariff for and
Speaker 1: then there's a no win situation, I think for both
Speaker 1: countries if we're looking at a two country situation. But
Speaker 1: I think what what he's looking for is for countries
Speaker 1: now to come back and say, well, let's see how
Speaker 1: we can be proactive together and almost a titch for
Speaker 1: tech types situation. So yeah, I'm being quite bold making
Speaker 1: that statement, and I don't think too many other economists
Speaker 1: have made that statement. But I if I just go back,
Speaker 1: and I'm going to repeat too much, but if we
Speaker 1: go back to the ways Delta is Ukraine, ways dealing
Speaker 1: with countries that have got strategic funerals and strategic inputs
Speaker 1: that America could use, those are the countries that I
Speaker 1: think is starting to frame here approach to.
Speaker 2: Stick with us Martin when we come back we'll talk
Speaker 2: more about what could be on the table in some
Speaker 2: of these negotiations. We'll be right back, Welcome back.
Speaker 4: Today.
Speaker 2: We're talking about the continued to fallout from President Trump's
Speaker 2: tariff plans as countries scramble to negotiate deals to avoid
Speaker 2: reciprocal tariffs. We are joined by economists Martin van Drusberg. So, Martin,
Speaker 2: we were touching on a few of the points earlier,
Speaker 2: or you were touching on a few of the points earlier,
Speaker 2: about what the suit could bring to the table if
Speaker 2: they do end up having these meetings with US officials.
Speaker 2: Another point that the Minister had brought attention to me too,
Speaker 2: was that there was a senior US official planning to
Speaker 2: make a trip to Pretoria in South Africa and potentially
Speaker 2: then they can have discussions. Can you touch on maybe
Speaker 2: the correlation between the Lisu Tou economy and the South
Speaker 2: African economy and maybe what could be put on the table,
Speaker 2: because you know, Lasuta's economy really depends a lot on
Speaker 2: South Africa correct one hundred percent.
Speaker 1: The currency is linked to the South African rand one
Speaker 1: for one, so they're very very dependent economic out South Africa.
Speaker 2: Are there things that both countries can maybe present that
Speaker 2: would be appealing for the US.
Speaker 1: I think we have to face their addit. Adult Trump
Speaker 1: is not happy with South Africa for a number of
Speaker 1: primarily the close association that South Africa has with Russia
Speaker 1: and with China and with other potentially other states, even Iran.
Speaker 1: And let's just talk about that for a moment, because
Speaker 1: this is important. Isn't the political aspects even South africa
Speaker 1: stance on the Israeli Gaza conflict. So I believe that
Speaker 1: the political relationship with South Africa is extremely weak. Now
Speaker 1: Lasuit is economy, I won't say a hundred percent dependent
Speaker 1: on South Africa, but it's closely linked South African economy.
Speaker 1: How do we deal with that? You're one hundred percent right?
Speaker 1: So the minister yesterday saying, well, what can be done?
Speaker 1: We want to send a high delegation to have discussions.
Speaker 1: My view is that the discussions need to take place
Speaker 1: firstly at a very high level political point. If we
Speaker 1: bring it down to the most simplest form, what does
Speaker 1: South Africa have? What does Lasuit you have that it
Speaker 1: would offer to the United States for it to be
Speaker 1: beneficial to increase our trade Because even for US, for
Speaker 1: South Africa and for the city to find additional markets
Speaker 1: I said earlier, to diversify the export markets. This will
Speaker 1: also take time, however, and you I'm coming to the
Speaker 1: point of the dollarization or the potential weakening of the dollar,
Speaker 1: so this needs to take place. What can be done?
Speaker 1: I've mentioned some of the issues I think it revolves
Speaker 1: in both are. South Africa is rich in minerals. The
Speaker 1: suture is perhaps not as rich, but certainly very diamond rich.
Speaker 1: So I believe that there are other products which could
Speaker 1: be looked at, you know, which aren't currently being exported
Speaker 1: violent from the suity to the United States. Now what
Speaker 1: the suit is done, it's a matter of interest. The
Speaker 1: very important matter of interest is that it is driven
Speaker 1: its mining with a partnership with with private sector. So
Speaker 1: there could be I'm going as far as saying there
Speaker 1: could be private sector in from the United States into
Speaker 1: the lists economy. They could be And here's the the
Speaker 1: light at the end of the tunnel, if I could
Speaker 1: use that cliche.
Speaker 3: What is there?
Speaker 1: Where can we go with this? Well, I honestly believe
Speaker 1: there is a future both countries need and the and
Speaker 1: the region, the Southern African region, should I believe talk
Speaker 1: to the United States as a as a valuable training partner,
Speaker 1: and whether we agree with the Trump issues or not,
Speaker 1: that's not relevant. Right now is the president and these
Speaker 1: are the issues we've got to be faced with. You
Speaker 1: can't you can't deny that these tariffs are going to come,
Speaker 1: but they are ways to look at. How can we
Speaker 1: mitigate this, how can we alleviate this, and frankly, how
Speaker 1: can we work together. South Africa is in desperate need
Speaker 1: of foreign direct investment and through I believe high level negotiations,
Speaker 1: high higher level negotiations, political negotiations, with an economic founding model,
Speaker 1: we could look at the United States investing more in
Speaker 1: Southern African countries.
Speaker 2: Martin, thank you so much for joining us and for
Speaker 2: your analysis. Really appreciate you being on the show this week,
Speaker 2: and you can read all of our coverage on the
Speaker 2: US tariffs across Bloomberg platforms. Now here's some of the
Speaker 2: other stories from the region that we've been following this week.
Speaker 2: The government of Ghana has assumed control of Goldfields's Demang
Speaker 2: mine after the West African nation rejected an application to
Speaker 2: extend the company's lease. It aligns with the government's policy
Speaker 2: of moving away from the neo colonial practice of automatically
Speaker 2: renewing mining licenses in Ghana. In a statement, authority said
Speaker 2: this decision was taken on grounds including the failure to
Speaker 2: declare verifiable mineral reserves in the renewal application and the
Speaker 2: lack of budgetary allocation for exploration. And kenyep is seeking
Speaker 2: realistic targets in a new program with the International Monetary Fund,
Speaker 2: according to a top government official, following deadly protests over
Speaker 2: taxes and US President Donald Trump's trade levies. And Kenya
Speaker 2: is seeking realistic targets in a new program with the
Speaker 2: International Monetary Fund, according to a top government official, following
Speaker 2: deadly protests over taxes and US President Donald Trump's trade levies.
Speaker 2: The East African Nations government will start talks with the
Speaker 2: lender this spring and probably conclude a deal by November,
Speaker 2: according to the Prime Cabinet secretary. He declined to give
Speaker 2: details of potential terms of the program. You can follow
Speaker 2: these stories across Bloomberg, including the Next African Newsletter. Will
Speaker 2: put a link to it in the show notes. This
Speaker 2: program was produced by Adrian Bradley. Don't forget to follow
Speaker 2: and review the show wherever you usually get your podcasts.
Speaker 2: I'm Jennifer Zabasaja. Thanks as always for listening.