WEBVTT - Tariffs, Trump, and the Stakes for Lesotho

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Countries across Africa are scrambling to negotiate with the US

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<v Speaker 2>after President Trump suspended the reciprocal tariffs for ninety days.

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<v Speaker 3>Nothing's over yet, but we have a tremendous amount of

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<v Speaker 3>spirit from other countries. We have many other countries, as

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<v Speaker 3>you know, many more than seventy five, and they all

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<v Speaker 3>want to come. Somebody had to do what we did,

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<v Speaker 3>and I did a ninety day pause for the people

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<v Speaker 3>that didn't retaliate.

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<v Speaker 2>The Southern African Kingdom of Lisutu was facing a fifty

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<v Speaker 2>percent terraff before the reprise, and the government is soon

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<v Speaker 2>to be in negotiations with the US to stop the

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<v Speaker 2>crippling tariff from returning, warning of a crisis. If the

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<v Speaker 2>negotiations fail.

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<v Speaker 4>We will be terribly affected. We are going to have

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<v Speaker 4>file liquidity issues. Symptoms of that foreign talency have about

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<v Speaker 4>six months came up, which is a comfortable about that

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<v Speaker 4>situation will change.

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<v Speaker 2>On this week's Next Africa podcast, we look at what

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<v Speaker 2>the fallout has been from these tariffs and what nations

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<v Speaker 2>like Lisutu can hope to get from negotiating with the US.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Jennifer Zabasanja and this is the Next Africa Podcast,

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<v Speaker 2>bringing you one story each week from the continent driving

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<v Speaker 2>the future of global growth with the context only Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 2>can provide. Joining me to discuss this today is economist

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<v Speaker 2>Martin van Dusberg, head of economics at Cape Peninsula University

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<v Speaker 2>of Technology. Martin, thank you so much for joining us.

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<v Speaker 2>So to start today, Martin, let's hear from someone who

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<v Speaker 2>is deeply involved in the negotiations. One of the countries,

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<v Speaker 2>as we mentioned, facing some of the highest tariffs under

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<v Speaker 2>President Trump's trade policies is Lisutu. Earlier this week we

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<v Speaker 2>were able to have on the show Lisutu's Trade Minister,

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<v Speaker 2>Morheti Sdile, and we talked to him about the ongoing

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<v Speaker 2>negotiations and whether he's clear or not on what the

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<v Speaker 2>US actually wants lest you to to do. Let's just

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<v Speaker 2>take a listen very quickly and we'll talk to you after.

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<v Speaker 4>They should be in a position to advise us what

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<v Speaker 4>else they find it difficult for themselves to establish in Lesutu.

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<v Speaker 4>It could be anything really, For instance, that there's been

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<v Speaker 4>some suggestions that we should be by hertain things from

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<v Speaker 4>them in terms of greens. We die quite a lot

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<v Speaker 4>in South Africa and it's fair affordable and let to

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<v Speaker 4>keep that market. But we have to understand if there

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<v Speaker 4>is any problem for them accessing the market that could

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<v Speaker 4>be nontally related.

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<v Speaker 2>And I wonder Minister, when you and the rest of

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<v Speaker 2>the government there the country heard about this fifty percent

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<v Speaker 2>tire of initial did you run the numbers? How could

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<v Speaker 2>that potentially affect the economy if in fact it does

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<v Speaker 2>stay after the pause.

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<v Speaker 1>Yes, we have run the numbers.

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<v Speaker 4>Directly On the fire line is the twelve thousand jobs

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<v Speaker 4>that we have here, which is going to now at

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<v Speaker 4>the know the day translated to feather forty thousand jobs.

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<v Speaker 4>That depends on the twelve thousand, we will be terribly affected.

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<v Speaker 4>We are going to have liquidity issues in terms of

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<v Speaker 4>foreign turrency. We have about six months cover, which is

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<v Speaker 4>very comfortable, but that situation will change.

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<v Speaker 2>Martin, thank you so much for joining us. You can

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<v Speaker 2>hear Minister Chadilla's frustration there when we were speaking earlier

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<v Speaker 2>this week. Maybe you can start us off by explaining

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<v Speaker 2>why SU two faced such high tariffs from the Trump administration,

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<v Speaker 2>especially considering how it pales in comparison to some of

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<v Speaker 2>these other countries that are also facing tariffs.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a difficult question to answer because Trump's decision making

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<v Speaker 1>has been fairly erratic, to say the least in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of across the born tariffs and then specific tariffs and

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<v Speaker 1>so on. But in essence, what I see from the

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<v Speaker 1>Trump tariff reshim if we can call it, that is,

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<v Speaker 1>and he defends it in saying that he wants to

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<v Speaker 1>produce as much more goods in America, and textiles is

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<v Speaker 1>one of the areas that he has seen can be produced,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think it comes really from there. So if

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<v Speaker 1>you look at the Suitu textile industry, that is predominantly

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<v Speaker 1>what is being exported to the United States, and yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>fifty percent would make it obviously totally unachievable. If I

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<v Speaker 1>can jump straight into the way I've been following Trump

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<v Speaker 1>quite closely with this and what I say following to

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<v Speaker 1>understand because of the impact in all the different economies

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<v Speaker 1>and what could come out of this is potentially I

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<v Speaker 1>think minerals. One of Nasuta's biggest driving industries is diamond binding.

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<v Speaker 1>Luti has diamonds but based metals uranium. They've even got

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<v Speaker 1>deposits of crude oil gas et cetera. These are not

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<v Speaker 1>being exported to the United States at the moment. And

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<v Speaker 1>I think wherever I have seen Trump, we even saw

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<v Speaker 1>it with the Ukraine War. If we can go back there,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, he said to Zelansky, We're we're gonna stop

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<v Speaker 1>supporting you, and then all of a sudden, but hang on,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, can we have your mineral rights? I honestly

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<v Speaker 1>feel that what Trump is doing is is targeting different

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<v Speaker 1>countries based on a what is the particular export that

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<v Speaker 1>is coming from that country, what's the relationship with that country?

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<v Speaker 1>Does that country have a strong tie with Russia, China

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<v Speaker 1>and other allies which there use the word of enemies

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<v Speaker 1>of what he sees as enemies of the United States.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's more than just the textiles, it's where does

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<v Speaker 1>the suit to fit in his biggest scheme of things.

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<v Speaker 1>That's what I believe we need to look at.

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<v Speaker 2>That means that you think that there is a bigger,

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<v Speaker 2>wider plan with these triffs, Is that essentially what you're saying,

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<v Speaker 2>I do.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that he will negotiate the tariffs down with

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<v Speaker 1>countries where he sees a future benefit to the United

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<v Speaker 1>States or to the Donald Trump plan. And I think

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<v Speaker 1>we're already starting to see that. So he immediately put

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<v Speaker 1>on the ninety day moratorium or the ninety day suspension,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think what that is His aim there is

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<v Speaker 1>to give countries an opportunity to say, well, how do

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<v Speaker 1>we deal with this? You know? Are we if we

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<v Speaker 1>just go back with retaliatory tariffs, which we've seen, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>then it's truly going to become a tariff for and

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<v Speaker 1>then there's a no win situation, I think for both

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<v Speaker 1>countries if we're looking at a two country situation. But

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<v Speaker 1>I think what what he's looking for is for countries

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<v Speaker 1>now to come back and say, well, let's see how

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<v Speaker 1>we can be proactive together and almost a titch for

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<v Speaker 1>tech types situation. So yeah, I'm being quite bold making

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<v Speaker 1>that statement, and I don't think too many other economists

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<v Speaker 1>have made that statement. But I if I just go back,

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<v Speaker 1>and I'm going to repeat too much, but if we

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<v Speaker 1>go back to the ways Delta is Ukraine, ways dealing

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<v Speaker 1>with countries that have got strategic funerals and strategic inputs

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<v Speaker 1>that America could use, those are the countries that I

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<v Speaker 1>think is starting to frame here approach to.

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<v Speaker 2>Stick with us Martin when we come back we'll talk

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<v Speaker 2>more about what could be on the table in some

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<v Speaker 2>of these negotiations. We'll be right back, Welcome back.

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<v Speaker 4>Today.

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<v Speaker 2>We're talking about the continued to fallout from President Trump's

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<v Speaker 2>tariff plans as countries scramble to negotiate deals to avoid

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<v Speaker 2>reciprocal tariffs. We are joined by economists Martin van Drusberg. So, Martin,

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<v Speaker 2>we were touching on a few of the points earlier,

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<v Speaker 2>or you were touching on a few of the points earlier,

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<v Speaker 2>about what the suit could bring to the table if

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<v Speaker 2>they do end up having these meetings with US officials.

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<v Speaker 2>Another point that the Minister had brought attention to me too,

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<v Speaker 2>was that there was a senior US official planning to

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<v Speaker 2>make a trip to Pretoria in South Africa and potentially

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<v Speaker 2>then they can have discussions. Can you touch on maybe

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<v Speaker 2>the correlation between the Lisu Tou economy and the South

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<v Speaker 2>African economy and maybe what could be put on the table,

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<v Speaker 2>because you know, Lasuta's economy really depends a lot on

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<v Speaker 2>South Africa correct one hundred percent.

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<v Speaker 1>The currency is linked to the South African rand one

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<v Speaker 1>for one, so they're very very dependent economic out South Africa.

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<v Speaker 2>Are there things that both countries can maybe present that

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<v Speaker 2>would be appealing for the US.

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<v Speaker 1>I think we have to face their addit. Adult Trump

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<v Speaker 1>is not happy with South Africa for a number of

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<v Speaker 1>primarily the close association that South Africa has with Russia

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<v Speaker 1>and with China and with other potentially other states, even Iran.

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<v Speaker 1>And let's just talk about that for a moment, because

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<v Speaker 1>this is important. Isn't the political aspects even South africa

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<v Speaker 1>stance on the Israeli Gaza conflict. So I believe that

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<v Speaker 1>the political relationship with South Africa is extremely weak. Now

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<v Speaker 1>Lasuit is economy, I won't say a hundred percent dependent

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<v Speaker 1>on South Africa, but it's closely linked South African economy.

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<v Speaker 1>How do we deal with that? You're one hundred percent right?

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<v Speaker 1>So the minister yesterday saying, well, what can be done?

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<v Speaker 1>We want to send a high delegation to have discussions.

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<v Speaker 1>My view is that the discussions need to take place

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<v Speaker 1>firstly at a very high level political point. If we

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<v Speaker 1>bring it down to the most simplest form, what does

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<v Speaker 1>South Africa have? What does Lasuit you have that it

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<v Speaker 1>would offer to the United States for it to be

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<v Speaker 1>beneficial to increase our trade Because even for US, for

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<v Speaker 1>South Africa and for the city to find additional markets

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<v Speaker 1>I said earlier, to diversify the export markets. This will

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<v Speaker 1>also take time, however, and you I'm coming to the

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<v Speaker 1>point of the dollarization or the potential weakening of the dollar,

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<v Speaker 1>so this needs to take place. What can be done?

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<v Speaker 1>I've mentioned some of the issues I think it revolves

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<v Speaker 1>in both are. South Africa is rich in minerals. The

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<v Speaker 1>suture is perhaps not as rich, but certainly very diamond rich.

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<v Speaker 1>So I believe that there are other products which could

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<v Speaker 1>be looked at, you know, which aren't currently being exported

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<v Speaker 1>violent from the suity to the United States. Now what

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<v Speaker 1>the suit is done, it's a matter of interest. The

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<v Speaker 1>very important matter of interest is that it is driven

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<v Speaker 1>its mining with a partnership with with private sector. So

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<v Speaker 1>there could be I'm going as far as saying there

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<v Speaker 1>could be private sector in from the United States into

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<v Speaker 1>the lists economy. They could be And here's the the

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<v Speaker 1>light at the end of the tunnel, if I could

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<v Speaker 1>use that cliche.

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<v Speaker 3>What is there?

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<v Speaker 1>Where can we go with this? Well, I honestly believe

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<v Speaker 1>there is a future both countries need and the and

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<v Speaker 1>the region, the Southern African region, should I believe talk

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<v Speaker 1>to the United States as a as a valuable training partner,

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<v Speaker 1>and whether we agree with the Trump issues or not,

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<v Speaker 1>that's not relevant. Right now is the president and these

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<v Speaker 1>are the issues we've got to be faced with. You

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<v Speaker 1>can't you can't deny that these tariffs are going to come,

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<v Speaker 1>but they are ways to look at. How can we

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<v Speaker 1>mitigate this, how can we alleviate this, and frankly, how

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<v Speaker 1>can we work together. South Africa is in desperate need

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<v Speaker 1>of foreign direct investment and through I believe high level negotiations,

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<v Speaker 1>high higher level negotiations, political negotiations, with an economic founding model,

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<v Speaker 1>we could look at the United States investing more in

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<v Speaker 1>Southern African countries.

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<v Speaker 2>Martin, thank you so much for joining us and for

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<v Speaker 2>your analysis. Really appreciate you being on the show this week,

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<v Speaker 2>and you can read all of our coverage on the

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<v Speaker 2>US tariffs across Bloomberg platforms. Now here's some of the

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<v Speaker 2>other stories from the region that we've been following this week.

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<v Speaker 2>The government of Ghana has assumed control of Goldfields's Demang

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<v Speaker 2>mine after the West African nation rejected an application to

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<v Speaker 2>extend the company's lease. It aligns with the government's policy

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<v Speaker 2>of moving away from the neo colonial practice of automatically

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<v Speaker 2>renewing mining licenses in Ghana. In a statement, authority said

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<v Speaker 2>this decision was taken on grounds including the failure to

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<v Speaker 2>declare verifiable mineral reserves in the renewal application and the

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<v Speaker 2>lack of budgetary allocation for exploration. And kenyep is seeking

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<v Speaker 2>realistic targets in a new program with the International Monetary Fund,

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<v Speaker 2>according to a top government official, following deadly protests over

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<v Speaker 2>taxes and US President Donald Trump's trade levies. And Kenya

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<v Speaker 2>is seeking realistic targets in a new program with the

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<v Speaker 2>International Monetary Fund, according to a top government official, following

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<v Speaker 2>deadly protests over taxes and US President Donald Trump's trade levies.

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<v Speaker 2>The East African Nations government will start talks with the

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<v Speaker 2>lender this spring and probably conclude a deal by November,

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<v Speaker 2>according to the Prime Cabinet secretary. He declined to give

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<v Speaker 2>details of potential terms of the program. You can follow

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<v Speaker 2>these stories across Bloomberg, including the Next African Newsletter. Will

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<v Speaker 2>put a link to it in the show notes. This

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<v Speaker 2>program was produced by Adrian Bradley. Don't forget to follow

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<v Speaker 2>and review the show wherever you usually get your podcasts.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Jennifer Zabasaja. Thanks as always for listening.