1 00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:04,040 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney, alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,920 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets Podcast 5 00:00:15,640 --> 00:00:18,479 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:22,680 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. I want to talk 7 00:00:22,680 --> 00:00:25,360 Speaker 1: about banks here. We've got banks earnings are gonna be 8 00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:27,920 Speaker 1: kicking off this earning season in a few days, and 9 00:00:28,240 --> 00:00:31,760 Speaker 1: can be really interested to hear what these banks CEOs 10 00:00:31,840 --> 00:00:34,560 Speaker 1: talk about or how they phrase their business outlook in 11 00:00:34,680 --> 00:00:37,320 Speaker 1: term of a rising interest rate environment. Dave Ellison, he's 12 00:00:37,320 --> 00:00:39,840 Speaker 1: a portfolio manager at the Hennessey Large and Small Cap 13 00:00:40,159 --> 00:00:42,440 Speaker 1: Financial Funds Day, thanks so much for joining us here. 14 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:45,840 Speaker 1: We got that inflation print today kind of in line 15 00:00:45,840 --> 00:00:48,880 Speaker 1: with expectations. We have rates rising both on the short 16 00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:51,360 Speaker 1: end and a little bit now even on the longer end. 17 00:00:52,159 --> 00:00:55,280 Speaker 1: How do you expect the banks to kind of talk 18 00:00:55,360 --> 00:00:57,840 Speaker 1: about their business, you know, when we get these earnings 19 00:00:57,880 --> 00:01:01,360 Speaker 1: calls over the next week or two. Well, I think 20 00:01:01,400 --> 00:01:05,400 Speaker 1: the anyway, good morning, But to everyone, I think when 21 00:01:05,400 --> 00:01:07,960 Speaker 1: it comes to the banks, I mean, they're you know, 22 00:01:08,000 --> 00:01:11,319 Speaker 1: not much different happened in the fourth quarter that happened 23 00:01:11,319 --> 00:01:14,600 Speaker 1: in the third quarter or the second quarter. So the 24 00:01:14,720 --> 00:01:16,800 Speaker 1: erneys are gonna be good. Credit is going to be fine. 25 00:01:16,959 --> 00:01:19,840 Speaker 1: I think the story is going to be that loan 26 00:01:19,920 --> 00:01:23,399 Speaker 1: demand is getting better and that's going to drive I 27 00:01:23,440 --> 00:01:26,119 Speaker 1: think the narrative for you know, the rest of the year. 28 00:01:26,560 --> 00:01:30,759 Speaker 1: Rates are a factor, but you know again, they FED 29 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:33,800 Speaker 1: hasn't moved rate yet, and rates take a while to 30 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:37,200 Speaker 1: bleed into the margins or the erne's of these companies, 31 00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:39,759 Speaker 1: So the impact of a rise in rates this year 32 00:01:39,840 --> 00:01:43,480 Speaker 1: really won't impact us until the fourth quarter of next 33 00:01:43,560 --> 00:01:45,200 Speaker 1: year or beyond. And I don't think they're going to 34 00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:48,279 Speaker 1: go up enough to really make a difference to the 35 00:01:48,320 --> 00:01:52,640 Speaker 1: demand for credit. So, uh, you know, the most important 36 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:55,360 Speaker 1: thing here is loan growth. And if the FED is 37 00:01:55,400 --> 00:01:57,960 Speaker 1: going to back off growing their balance sheet and actually 38 00:01:58,000 --> 00:02:01,480 Speaker 1: shrink it, then the bands have an opportunity to fill 39 00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:04,160 Speaker 1: in that hole at the bank that the FED has 40 00:02:04,200 --> 00:02:07,320 Speaker 1: been filling for many years now by providing all of 41 00:02:07,320 --> 00:02:11,240 Speaker 1: this credit and liquidity and start to use their excess liquidity, 42 00:02:11,280 --> 00:02:15,360 Speaker 1: which will drive earnings higher. Will they make any money 43 00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:18,160 Speaker 1: on that? I mean, if there's no net interest margin 44 00:02:18,240 --> 00:02:22,160 Speaker 1: out there, what's the point. Well, I think it's you know, 45 00:02:22,280 --> 00:02:24,760 Speaker 1: there is a decent margin out there now. You know, 46 00:02:24,800 --> 00:02:26,920 Speaker 1: they're not lending at the ten year rate. You know, 47 00:02:27,040 --> 00:02:28,960 Speaker 1: most loans are going on at two and a half 48 00:02:29,000 --> 00:02:32,720 Speaker 1: to three and a half percent. Yeah, the cost of 49 00:02:32,760 --> 00:02:37,000 Speaker 1: funds is not you know, at forty or fifty basis points, 50 00:02:37,000 --> 00:02:40,720 Speaker 1: it's more like zero or close to it. So, um, 51 00:02:40,760 --> 00:02:43,400 Speaker 1: so you can make you know that the profitability of 52 00:02:43,400 --> 00:02:47,119 Speaker 1: the industry is very good here. It's not bad by 53 00:02:47,160 --> 00:02:49,520 Speaker 1: any means that. Having been in this business since the 54 00:02:49,560 --> 00:02:52,320 Speaker 1: early eighties, believe me, things are really good right now. 55 00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:56,160 Speaker 1: Uh JP Morgan's making a billion dollars a month after 56 00:02:56,320 --> 00:02:59,160 Speaker 1: tax I think they're doing fine. The issue is how 57 00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:00,840 Speaker 1: do they grow that and how do they get their 58 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:05,120 Speaker 1: multiple up? And actually, you know, for people that invest 59 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:07,360 Speaker 1: in these names, you know what makes them go hired 60 00:03:07,360 --> 00:03:10,400 Speaker 1: and it's going to be long growth and so yeah, 61 00:03:10,680 --> 00:03:12,040 Speaker 1: that's kind of where I wanted to go to. I mean, 62 00:03:12,080 --> 00:03:14,720 Speaker 1: if I have a rising interest rate in environment, steepening 63 00:03:14,840 --> 00:03:19,399 Speaker 1: yielder presumably um as we go through the year here, um, 64 00:03:19,440 --> 00:03:21,240 Speaker 1: do I want to own the big money center banks 65 00:03:21,240 --> 00:03:24,160 Speaker 1: and JP Morgan's, the b of A's the cities or 66 00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:28,600 Speaker 1: or maybe the regionals. How how do you think about that? Well, 67 00:03:28,680 --> 00:03:32,040 Speaker 1: I I think you know. My view is the bigger 68 00:03:32,040 --> 00:03:35,720 Speaker 1: banks are the place to be in general because they 69 00:03:35,720 --> 00:03:38,720 Speaker 1: have the profits, they have the in a sense, the 70 00:03:38,760 --> 00:03:43,200 Speaker 1: Fang network effect, and they can make investments in technology 71 00:03:43,320 --> 00:03:47,360 Speaker 1: and stay ahead of this sort of PayPal square or 72 00:03:47,400 --> 00:03:51,960 Speaker 1: now Block, you know, movement against them in terms of 73 00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:55,600 Speaker 1: taking share. So I you know, I favor the bigger 74 00:03:55,640 --> 00:03:58,760 Speaker 1: banks because I think they have the opportunity to to 75 00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:03,520 Speaker 1: grow loans, to the investments, to stay relevant against this 76 00:04:03,760 --> 00:04:07,080 Speaker 1: massive move of tech names trying to get into this 77 00:04:07,200 --> 00:04:10,120 Speaker 1: business and and take away the low hanging sort of 78 00:04:10,200 --> 00:04:14,720 Speaker 1: high profitable fruit that's out there. Do you I mean, 79 00:04:15,120 --> 00:04:18,200 Speaker 1: if they go out there and buy the technology that 80 00:04:18,279 --> 00:04:21,640 Speaker 1: they can't build or don't want to embark on, do 81 00:04:21,720 --> 00:04:24,520 Speaker 1: you then try and pick those names before they get 82 00:04:24,920 --> 00:04:29,360 Speaker 1: um taken up by the banks. I don't think that's 83 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:32,080 Speaker 1: gonna happen as much. I think a lot of the companies. Again, 84 00:04:32,120 --> 00:04:35,200 Speaker 1: what I'm hearing from the bigger banks is they're going 85 00:04:35,279 --> 00:04:38,360 Speaker 1: to build it in house. Uh. They have the ability 86 00:04:38,440 --> 00:04:41,400 Speaker 1: to hire the people, they have the money, and uh, 87 00:04:41,720 --> 00:04:43,880 Speaker 1: you know, I think they have Again, they have the 88 00:04:43,920 --> 00:04:46,719 Speaker 1: network effect to test it and see what works. So 89 00:04:47,360 --> 00:04:49,839 Speaker 1: I think this idea that Bank America or JP Morgan 90 00:04:49,920 --> 00:04:52,280 Speaker 1: is going to buy PayPal, and somebody's going to buy Block, 91 00:04:52,400 --> 00:04:54,920 Speaker 1: and somebody's going to buy a firm, and somebody's going 92 00:04:54,960 --> 00:04:58,240 Speaker 1: to buy whatever other you know, I just don't think 93 00:04:58,279 --> 00:05:01,760 Speaker 1: that's going to happen. The value ations are too high 94 00:05:01,839 --> 00:05:05,799 Speaker 1: and and the regulatory structure just doesn't allow these guys 95 00:05:05,839 --> 00:05:08,640 Speaker 1: to do that anymore. So again, it's going to be 96 00:05:08,720 --> 00:05:13,680 Speaker 1: a build, make it work for themselves, retain customers, build 97 00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:16,520 Speaker 1: a good mobile platform, make it better, make it better 98 00:05:16,560 --> 00:05:20,359 Speaker 1: than Square, PayPal or some of these other guys, and 99 00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:22,919 Speaker 1: and just you know, go for it and try to 100 00:05:22,960 --> 00:05:25,040 Speaker 1: get the customers back. And I think they have the 101 00:05:25,080 --> 00:05:29,479 Speaker 1: ability to do that. So Dave, on the bigger banks, 102 00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:33,039 Speaker 1: do you prefer the ones that have a big capital 103 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:38,359 Speaker 1: market slash investment banking franchise like a JP Morgan um 104 00:05:38,520 --> 00:05:43,359 Speaker 1: or maybe more of a retail commercial corporate bank presence 105 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:47,000 Speaker 1: like a Wacovia. Well, I think you can own and 106 00:05:47,040 --> 00:05:50,839 Speaker 1: I own all of those names. Uh, for that reason, 107 00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:53,880 Speaker 1: I think I think the most interesting story now or 108 00:05:53,920 --> 00:05:56,960 Speaker 1: the two most interesting stories are Bank America in terms 109 00:05:56,960 --> 00:06:00,680 Speaker 1: of their ability to you know, play the retail benefits 110 00:06:00,720 --> 00:06:03,080 Speaker 1: of the growth in loans, and then of course have 111 00:06:03,200 --> 00:06:07,800 Speaker 1: some exposure to the very profitable capital markets business now. 112 00:06:07,839 --> 00:06:10,159 Speaker 1: But I think the other one is City Corps. Everybody's 113 00:06:10,200 --> 00:06:14,080 Speaker 1: talking about Wells Fargo now, and everybody loves well Fargo, 114 00:06:14,200 --> 00:06:17,720 Speaker 1: but I think City Corps is in a significant transition. 115 00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:22,000 Speaker 1: That is, you know again, they made that sale yesterday. 116 00:06:22,600 --> 00:06:24,960 Speaker 1: The stock is very cheap, They've got tons of capital, 117 00:06:25,040 --> 00:06:28,440 Speaker 1: they're very profitable, and I think the question is what 118 00:06:28,600 --> 00:06:30,320 Speaker 1: is that company going to look like in a couple 119 00:06:30,320 --> 00:06:34,279 Speaker 1: of years, And I suspect it's, you know, it's it's 120 00:06:33,800 --> 00:06:36,680 Speaker 1: the company will look better and the stock will be 121 00:06:37,000 --> 00:06:39,880 Speaker 1: appreciably higher than it is now relative to book value 122 00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:42,320 Speaker 1: and earnings. Dave, great to get your picks and your 123 00:06:42,360 --> 00:06:44,440 Speaker 1: take on the industry. Thanks so much for joining us. 124 00:06:44,480 --> 00:06:47,480 Speaker 1: Dave Ellison there um from Hennessy Large and Small Cat 125 00:06:47,600 --> 00:06:54,640 Speaker 1: Financial Funds. Let's bring an Alex jail Off right now, 126 00:06:54,680 --> 00:06:58,599 Speaker 1: co head of investment Strategies at Bernstein Private Wealth Management, 127 00:06:58,600 --> 00:07:00,440 Speaker 1: and I got a lot of talk about with you. Alex. 128 00:07:00,480 --> 00:07:03,440 Speaker 1: First off, I was pretty excited about. Bernstein is one 129 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:07,320 Speaker 1: of the banks that's overweight UM energy stocks and they're 130 00:07:07,320 --> 00:07:11,160 Speaker 1: just trading at a huge discount, especially the European energy 131 00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:15,000 Speaker 1: producers trading at I think a discount to the stock 132 00:07:15,080 --> 00:07:19,120 Speaker 1: six hundred and forward earnings are so much higher UM 133 00:07:19,120 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 1: than the benchmark index. Do you like oil producers too? Well, 134 00:07:23,520 --> 00:07:24,760 Speaker 1: first of all, let me just go back to the 135 00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:28,720 Speaker 1: beer conversation. I will see your Pilsner in Prague and 136 00:07:28,760 --> 00:07:30,800 Speaker 1: I will raise you a Guinness in Dublin, which I 137 00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:33,640 Speaker 1: I still think is the just the number one beer experience. 138 00:07:33,680 --> 00:07:37,320 Speaker 1: I mean, I love, I do love Guinness, especially the 139 00:07:37,400 --> 00:07:40,360 Speaker 1: extra cold, which I think is four degrees colder than 140 00:07:40,400 --> 00:07:42,520 Speaker 1: the typical task. And it is different in Dublin than 141 00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:45,920 Speaker 1: and it's different, it's a million times. Look, it's a 142 00:07:45,920 --> 00:07:47,880 Speaker 1: good segue to talk about what's going on in Europe, 143 00:07:47,920 --> 00:07:50,720 Speaker 1: and you mentioned energy producers. If you want to find 144 00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:53,920 Speaker 1: the intersection of what's cheap today, and look, you have 145 00:07:54,000 --> 00:07:58,280 Speaker 1: to look hard to find anything that has a reasonable valuation. 146 00:07:59,000 --> 00:08:03,760 Speaker 1: Europe is exceptionally attractive today on a valuation basis, and 147 00:08:03,800 --> 00:08:06,200 Speaker 1: there's a dynamic that's going on within Europe that we 148 00:08:06,280 --> 00:08:09,520 Speaker 1: think is very interesting it's around dividends. There's been a 149 00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:11,800 Speaker 1: lot of dividend cuts that have occurred in the midst 150 00:08:11,800 --> 00:08:14,280 Speaker 1: of the pandemic, and our view is in the first 151 00:08:14,360 --> 00:08:17,560 Speaker 1: quarter and second quarter of twenty two, you get reinstatement 152 00:08:18,320 --> 00:08:20,240 Speaker 1: and you get a pickup in dividends. So some of 153 00:08:20,280 --> 00:08:24,000 Speaker 1: the energy story revolves around dividends. But I would say, 154 00:08:24,120 --> 00:08:28,280 Speaker 1: more broadly, European dividend reinstatement and increase. That's that's a 155 00:08:28,360 --> 00:08:32,599 Speaker 1: trade in itself. So Alex, just generally speaking geographically, you 156 00:08:32,800 --> 00:08:37,440 Speaker 1: like Europe more so than the US, well more so 157 00:08:37,520 --> 00:08:40,000 Speaker 1: than the US is is a little bit more than 158 00:08:40,040 --> 00:08:42,680 Speaker 1: what I would say, because what the US is clearly 159 00:08:43,320 --> 00:08:47,920 Speaker 1: the most powerful economy. UH. Even with the inflation readings 160 00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:51,920 Speaker 1: that we've seen today, there is real strength. There's a 161 00:08:52,080 --> 00:08:55,960 Speaker 1: strong view that will have good growth this year, higher 162 00:08:56,000 --> 00:08:58,240 Speaker 1: growth in the first half than the second half, but 163 00:08:58,360 --> 00:09:02,360 Speaker 1: good solid growth throughout the year UH, and that inflation 164 00:09:02,520 --> 00:09:07,120 Speaker 1: as it comes down, that will allow consumers UH to 165 00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:10,880 Speaker 1: continue to spend and companies to have expanded their margins 166 00:09:11,600 --> 00:09:14,480 Speaker 1: over the period. So the US continues to be the 167 00:09:14,520 --> 00:09:16,720 Speaker 1: market that we want to have the highest exposure to. 168 00:09:17,280 --> 00:09:21,880 Speaker 1: But look, we continue to maintain Uh, a pretty meaningful 169 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:26,240 Speaker 1: exposure to foreign markets. And we are circling in pencil, 170 00:09:26,520 --> 00:09:29,599 Speaker 1: but circling Europe as an opportunity for two and what 171 00:09:29,760 --> 00:09:32,480 Speaker 1: what what let's get back to the US. I wonder 172 00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:37,199 Speaker 1: what kind of industry groups you like here. Well, if 173 00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:39,560 Speaker 1: you look at the backdrop, you've got to start with rates. 174 00:09:40,040 --> 00:09:44,120 Speaker 1: And as rising rates is a big part of our forecast. 175 00:09:44,160 --> 00:09:47,640 Speaker 1: Not not dramatically higher. This isn't gonna be uh, something 176 00:09:47,679 --> 00:09:50,760 Speaker 1: that's going to overwhelm the market and the economy, but 177 00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:55,720 Speaker 1: rising rates very strong indicator for banks. So financials have 178 00:09:55,800 --> 00:09:58,120 Speaker 1: to be part of the program. If you think about 179 00:09:58,160 --> 00:10:01,560 Speaker 1: the mid cycle recover bree that we're in from an 180 00:10:01,559 --> 00:10:06,160 Speaker 1: economic perspective, cyclicals are interesting. Uh And and so there 181 00:10:06,160 --> 00:10:11,640 Speaker 1: there's continues to be a favoritism around quality and earnings 182 00:10:11,720 --> 00:10:16,640 Speaker 1: and cash flow generation with that cyclical tilt. But I'll 183 00:10:16,679 --> 00:10:19,800 Speaker 1: tell you it's no longer this discussion of which one 184 00:10:19,880 --> 00:10:22,079 Speaker 1: is going to win value or growth. I think that's 185 00:10:22,120 --> 00:10:25,880 Speaker 1: an outdated notion. And in fact, we'd look at companies 186 00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:30,120 Speaker 1: that generate reliable cash flows with great visibility into the 187 00:10:30,160 --> 00:10:33,360 Speaker 1: next few quarters, if not the next few years. So 188 00:10:33,720 --> 00:10:36,240 Speaker 1: it's it's a little bit of everything. It's a mixed bag. 189 00:10:36,280 --> 00:10:39,720 Speaker 1: We we favor balance over trying to make a style call. 190 00:10:40,240 --> 00:10:43,160 Speaker 1: But it's all coming back to cash flow, all right, Alex, 191 00:10:43,160 --> 00:10:44,719 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us, too short of 192 00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:47,040 Speaker 1: a visible. We'll touch based with you soon. Alex shall 193 00:10:47,040 --> 00:10:51,040 Speaker 1: off Cohed Investment Strategies, Bernstein Private Wealth and Management likes 194 00:10:51,040 --> 00:10:54,600 Speaker 1: his Guinness uh in Dublin, which is always makes him 195 00:10:54,600 --> 00:11:01,120 Speaker 1: a friend of this show. All right, let's talk about 196 00:11:01,120 --> 00:11:04,360 Speaker 1: five G. It's rolling out all things great. Everybody loves 197 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:06,160 Speaker 1: five gun. Be able to download a movie in like 198 00:11:06,280 --> 00:11:09,880 Speaker 1: a nanosecond. But apparently there's some problem with airlines and 199 00:11:09,960 --> 00:11:13,040 Speaker 1: planes and I know, the electronics and stuff like that. 200 00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:15,439 Speaker 1: Let's bring it in an extra because I really don't 201 00:11:15,520 --> 00:11:18,800 Speaker 1: understand that. Diana firtch got Wroth, adjunct professor at George 202 00:11:18,800 --> 00:11:22,800 Speaker 1: Washington University, joins us um. Diana, thanks so much for 203 00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:25,520 Speaker 1: taking the time. Can you explain the concerns that the 204 00:11:25,640 --> 00:11:31,160 Speaker 1: airlines have about five G? Yes, yes I can. And 205 00:11:31,240 --> 00:11:33,360 Speaker 1: before that, I just want to say the best way 206 00:11:33,400 --> 00:11:35,440 Speaker 1: not to have your car stolen is to have a 207 00:11:35,480 --> 00:11:38,760 Speaker 1: manual transmit. That's a great People can't buy them, most 208 00:11:38,760 --> 00:11:43,920 Speaker 1: people can't drive them. So the concerns are with these 209 00:11:43,960 --> 00:11:49,880 Speaker 1: devices called radio or radar altimeters, which are NAVIGA part 210 00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:53,480 Speaker 1: of the navigation systems of planes, and the new five 211 00:11:53,679 --> 00:11:59,560 Speaker 1: G deployment could interfere with these radio altimeters. So the 212 00:11:59,679 --> 00:12:03,360 Speaker 1: f a A, which is devoted to keeping aircraft and 213 00:12:03,400 --> 00:12:07,880 Speaker 1: passengers safe, wants to put in place safety measures such 214 00:12:07,920 --> 00:12:13,640 Speaker 1: as not having higher antennas or higher power around certain airports. 215 00:12:14,200 --> 00:12:17,680 Speaker 1: The problem is that while of companies such as A T, 216 00:12:17,720 --> 00:12:21,320 Speaker 1: T Arrizon and T Mobile paid a collective ninety four 217 00:12:21,559 --> 00:12:26,400 Speaker 1: billion dollars last year to roll out these high pot 218 00:12:26,520 --> 00:12:29,320 Speaker 1: five G systems, and they do not want to be 219 00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:33,079 Speaker 1: told that they should be dialing them back or lowering 220 00:12:33,120 --> 00:12:36,560 Speaker 1: the power or not having them close to airports. So 221 00:12:36,720 --> 00:12:39,520 Speaker 1: that's where the problem is. The f a A has 222 00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:44,240 Speaker 1: convinced these wild of companies to delay rolling out five 223 00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:47,360 Speaker 1: G for another couple of weeks, and then after that 224 00:12:47,480 --> 00:12:50,360 Speaker 1: we will have to see what happens. I mean, isn't 225 00:12:50,360 --> 00:12:54,000 Speaker 1: it kind of binary? Either it's dangerous or it's not. 226 00:12:54,280 --> 00:12:58,360 Speaker 1: Either there's a possibility that it ruins the altimeter sensors 227 00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:01,760 Speaker 1: and the plane crashes on land, or it doesn't, which 228 00:13:01,840 --> 00:13:08,200 Speaker 1: is it? So it's not exactly. Bine, Well, I mean 229 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:11,040 Speaker 1: it is binary, but the problem is that under certain 230 00:13:11,120 --> 00:13:15,640 Speaker 1: circumstances and in certain planes, it is dangerous, and in 231 00:13:15,720 --> 00:13:20,520 Speaker 1: other circumstances it isn't. So it's not all radar altimeters 232 00:13:20,520 --> 00:13:23,920 Speaker 1: that are affected. Some of them are more tied into 233 00:13:23,920 --> 00:13:26,880 Speaker 1: the plane's navigation systems than others. And it's not a 234 00:13:26,920 --> 00:13:30,000 Speaker 1: matter of old ones or new ones. Some of the 235 00:13:30,080 --> 00:13:33,040 Speaker 1: older ones cause fewer problems than the new ones because 236 00:13:33,040 --> 00:13:37,520 Speaker 1: the newer ones do automatic things such as affect the 237 00:13:37,559 --> 00:13:41,440 Speaker 1: planes landing gear, for example. So how how is this 238 00:13:41,480 --> 00:13:44,959 Speaker 1: going to play out here? Interesting and terrifying? It's interesting, terrifying, absolutely, 239 00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:48,000 Speaker 1: because it kind of feels binary. But it is this 240 00:13:48,120 --> 00:13:51,400 Speaker 1: something that the airlines can fix? Is this something that 241 00:13:51,480 --> 00:13:54,600 Speaker 1: the telecom companies need to adjust? Do we have to 242 00:13:54,679 --> 00:14:02,640 Speaker 1: work together? Is there? Uh? Well, this isn't going to 243 00:14:02,720 --> 00:14:07,120 Speaker 1: be fixed right away because, as the manufacturers of Boeing 244 00:14:07,160 --> 00:14:10,280 Speaker 1: and Airbus planes have said, you cannot just swap out 245 00:14:10,400 --> 00:14:13,839 Speaker 1: one radar altimeter for another, like you can swap an 246 00:14:13,880 --> 00:14:16,680 Speaker 1: easy pass out of your car and put another easy 247 00:14:16,720 --> 00:14:20,040 Speaker 1: pass in it. These take time to take out. The 248 00:14:20,120 --> 00:14:24,120 Speaker 1: f a A is committed to keeping passengers safe That 249 00:14:24,160 --> 00:14:27,680 Speaker 1: means if they think that there is two high five 250 00:14:27,760 --> 00:14:32,720 Speaker 1: G par at one airport, they will ask the plane 251 00:14:32,760 --> 00:14:37,360 Speaker 1: to be diverted to another airport, or they might cancel 252 00:14:37,680 --> 00:14:41,520 Speaker 1: that particular flight, which is going to wreck havoc with 253 00:14:41,920 --> 00:14:46,080 Speaker 1: airline flights. We already have problems with not enough crews 254 00:14:46,120 --> 00:14:51,160 Speaker 1: and existing delays. This is going to add more delays. Probably. 255 00:14:51,160 --> 00:14:54,240 Speaker 1: It has very high stand It has very high, very 256 00:14:54,320 --> 00:14:56,880 Speaker 1: very high standards, and the FA is going to make 257 00:14:56,880 --> 00:15:00,520 Speaker 1: sure that everyone is safe. Are they higher? Are they 258 00:15:00,600 --> 00:15:04,000 Speaker 1: higher than French standards? I mean, how does this work 259 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:09,040 Speaker 1: in other countries? Well, five G is already being deployed 260 00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:12,240 Speaker 1: in other countries, but the US air space is the 261 00:15:12,280 --> 00:15:15,480 Speaker 1: most complex in the world, and the f A holds 262 00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:20,720 Speaker 1: itself and our aviation sector to the highest safety standards. 263 00:15:20,800 --> 00:15:24,720 Speaker 1: In other countries, five G has lower power levels, It 264 00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:30,120 Speaker 1: has antenna's tilted downward to reduce potential interference to flights. 265 00:15:30,280 --> 00:15:33,920 Speaker 1: It has different placement of antenna's relative to air fields, 266 00:15:34,040 --> 00:15:37,840 Speaker 1: It has frequencies with a different proximity to frequencies used 267 00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:41,920 Speaker 1: by aviation equipment. And what the f A wants to 268 00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:46,040 Speaker 1: do is have mitigations on the five G spectrum rolled 269 00:15:46,040 --> 00:15:49,000 Speaker 1: out here, similar to in other countries. For example, a 270 00:15:49,040 --> 00:15:52,720 Speaker 1: month ago, Canada just put limits on its five G deployment. 271 00:15:52,720 --> 00:15:55,360 Speaker 1: It said antenna's could not be pointed up, they have 272 00:15:55,480 --> 00:15:57,840 Speaker 1: to be pointed down, and they could not be in 273 00:15:57,920 --> 00:16:01,760 Speaker 1: certain waves of spectrum close to where the radar altimates are. 274 00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:04,600 Speaker 1: This was not a problem I wasn't that aware of. 275 00:16:04,680 --> 00:16:07,120 Speaker 1: But now I say, and now I gotta pay attention 276 00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:10,360 Speaker 1: another problem out there. Great Diana Firsch got Wroth acting 277 00:16:10,480 --> 00:16:16,040 Speaker 1: Professor George Washington University. She's been in government before that. Um. 278 00:16:16,120 --> 00:16:17,760 Speaker 1: She was the chief of Staff at the Council of 279 00:16:17,800 --> 00:16:21,120 Speaker 1: Economic Advisors at the White House, former Acting Assistant Secretary 280 00:16:21,160 --> 00:16:30,840 Speaker 1: for Economic Policy Department. Let's bring in right now, Oscar 281 00:16:30,920 --> 00:16:33,880 Speaker 1: de Bak. He is the CEO of d h l's 282 00:16:33,880 --> 00:16:39,480 Speaker 1: supply chain. Uh and man, the supply chain is incredibly important. 283 00:16:39,480 --> 00:16:43,440 Speaker 1: I don't think any of us realized until the pandemic 284 00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:47,440 Speaker 1: how key it is. I mean, it affects everything in 285 00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:52,440 Speaker 1: markets because this is what's behind inflation. And you know, 286 00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:56,000 Speaker 1: most importantly, it affects my ability to buy the car 287 00:16:56,080 --> 00:16:58,640 Speaker 1: that I want or the truck because they're just not 288 00:16:58,680 --> 00:17:01,360 Speaker 1: in the lots right now. UM. D h L however, 289 00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:04,960 Speaker 1: still gets you your stuff on time, which I know 290 00:17:05,080 --> 00:17:08,960 Speaker 1: because I use it constantly for shipping. It must be 291 00:17:09,040 --> 00:17:12,960 Speaker 1: hard Oscar. You know all these manufacturing companies are finding 292 00:17:12,960 --> 00:17:15,800 Speaker 1: it so difficult to get pieces and parts around the world. 293 00:17:16,680 --> 00:17:18,919 Speaker 1: How much has it affected your business? I mean, is 294 00:17:18,960 --> 00:17:23,840 Speaker 1: there you know, an average delay for DHL package of 295 00:17:23,880 --> 00:17:26,840 Speaker 1: a few hours compared to pre pandemic or is it 296 00:17:26,920 --> 00:17:31,520 Speaker 1: unchanged now? I think I think the timings we is unchanged. 297 00:17:31,720 --> 00:17:34,199 Speaker 1: We still are able to meet the timelines and to 298 00:17:34,280 --> 00:17:37,479 Speaker 1: meet the But the thing is, obviously the availability of products, 299 00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:40,399 Speaker 1: as as you already mentioned, can be an issue, and 300 00:17:41,200 --> 00:17:44,280 Speaker 1: we can help our customers there by by managing their 301 00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:47,000 Speaker 1: supply change looking at that time and make sure that 302 00:17:47,040 --> 00:17:48,879 Speaker 1: the forecasting has done in such a way that we 303 00:17:49,640 --> 00:17:55,639 Speaker 1: preepack earlier and and capacity earlier. Luckily, we can for 304 00:17:55,720 --> 00:17:59,960 Speaker 1: our customers buy capacity easier and that helps a bit 305 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:03,879 Speaker 1: obviously in today's very complex supply, but it's got to 306 00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:06,480 Speaker 1: cost a heck of a lot more. I moved to 307 00:18:06,600 --> 00:18:10,200 Speaker 1: Germany in two thousand sixteen. I brought a poor show 308 00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:12,800 Speaker 1: with me because it was pretty cheap. It was a 309 00:18:12,880 --> 00:18:16,200 Speaker 1: few grand. Now, when I moved back to New York 310 00:18:16,359 --> 00:18:21,800 Speaker 1: last week I had to sadly, heartbreakingly, tearfully leave my 311 00:18:21,880 --> 00:18:25,160 Speaker 1: nine eleven behind because it just doesn't make any sense 312 00:18:25,280 --> 00:18:27,639 Speaker 1: with the today's prices to ship it back. I might 313 00:18:27,640 --> 00:18:30,560 Speaker 1: as well just sell it in Berlin. How much are 314 00:18:30,600 --> 00:18:34,600 Speaker 1: you seeing in terms of price appreciation? Yeah, I know, 315 00:18:34,680 --> 00:18:36,280 Speaker 1: you obviously see it. And I think you could probably 316 00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:38,440 Speaker 1: sell the pores really well because of the scarcity of 317 00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:42,639 Speaker 1: coarse in Germany. But but yeah, no, that is it. 318 00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:46,679 Speaker 1: But you know, for effect, ocean freight prices depending on 319 00:18:46,680 --> 00:18:49,320 Speaker 1: the faith but have gone up four times, are fraid 320 00:18:49,400 --> 00:18:52,280 Speaker 1: and times. So it is. It is a situation that 321 00:18:52,520 --> 00:18:55,080 Speaker 1: we have at the moment. We're not yet out of that. UM. 322 00:18:55,720 --> 00:18:58,720 Speaker 1: I think that is something that gradually during the year 323 00:18:58,760 --> 00:19:02,119 Speaker 1: will well, we'll start to happen. But it will require 324 00:19:02,800 --> 00:19:05,840 Speaker 1: better planning, It will require a better use of data. 325 00:19:05,960 --> 00:19:08,360 Speaker 1: I think it will also. We for instance, made made 326 00:19:08,359 --> 00:19:13,680 Speaker 1: specific investments also in robotics, in data analytics, UM, because 327 00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:17,040 Speaker 1: the availability of people is a topic as well, and 328 00:19:17,840 --> 00:19:20,920 Speaker 1: so it's it's it's important that we made the investments 329 00:19:20,920 --> 00:19:23,600 Speaker 1: ahead of girth and that helped us for instance, now 330 00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:26,280 Speaker 1: in the in the last quarter in the US because 331 00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:28,560 Speaker 1: of the two thousand robots that we had there to 332 00:19:28,600 --> 00:19:31,240 Speaker 1: be able to actually still meet the demand in the 333 00:19:31,280 --> 00:19:36,400 Speaker 1: in fulfillment operations UM and still be able to UH 334 00:19:37,080 --> 00:19:41,240 Speaker 1: to attract people UM that we needed for those operations. Oscar, 335 00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:44,479 Speaker 1: does this call into question that the supply chain challenges 336 00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:48,040 Speaker 1: we have? Is this call intent question? Just in time 337 00:19:48,280 --> 00:19:51,639 Speaker 1: inventory that seemed to be, you know, a basic tenant 338 00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:54,800 Speaker 1: for much of the global trade over the last generation 339 00:19:54,960 --> 00:19:57,600 Speaker 1: or two. Is that now called in the question given 340 00:19:57,600 --> 00:20:01,040 Speaker 1: what we experienced over last year. Yeah, I would say so. 341 00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:05,080 Speaker 1: I think just in time is getting reinvented. UM. I 342 00:20:05,119 --> 00:20:07,160 Speaker 1: think what we've seen here is that just in time 343 00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:09,080 Speaker 1: when went a little bit over the top, and then 344 00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:13,200 Speaker 1: with the disruptions that we've had over over the past year, 345 00:20:13,240 --> 00:20:14,960 Speaker 1: you can clearly see that it now takes a long 346 00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:18,800 Speaker 1: time to resettle that. So the whole definition on how 347 00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:21,720 Speaker 1: much talk you take you need to keep, how close 348 00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:23,359 Speaker 1: to the customer you do, do you do you need 349 00:20:23,440 --> 00:20:26,040 Speaker 1: to steer to keep the stalk, how well do you 350 00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:29,119 Speaker 1: need to be able to forecast? That is at this 351 00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:33,080 Speaker 1: moment as we speak, changing and only if we start 352 00:20:33,200 --> 00:20:36,520 Speaker 1: to redefine just in time, then the ectual disruption of 353 00:20:36,520 --> 00:20:40,960 Speaker 1: supply change will gradually stop. What are you seeing in 354 00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:44,760 Speaker 1: terms of UH energy inputs? Paul and I are sitting here, 355 00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:50,119 Speaker 1: you know, jaws a gape watching Brent crude and imax 356 00:20:50,280 --> 00:20:53,560 Speaker 1: trade north of a D and I wonder how how 357 00:20:53,640 --> 00:21:01,320 Speaker 1: much longer that holds on? So so it can be 358 00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:03,840 Speaker 1: specific in the question. No, I mean we we've just 359 00:21:03,880 --> 00:21:07,439 Speaker 1: seen a massive run up in oil costs, and you 360 00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:09,399 Speaker 1: know this must be one of the biggest inputs when 361 00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:12,360 Speaker 1: you're trying to figure out um your budget for the year. 362 00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:16,000 Speaker 1: You've got your energy costs, you've got your labor um, 363 00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:20,080 Speaker 1: you've got the equipment that you rent, the boats and absolutely, 364 00:21:20,560 --> 00:21:24,720 Speaker 1: so what do you what do you think? So there's 365 00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:26,840 Speaker 1: a clear there's a clear as as you as you know, 366 00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:29,159 Speaker 1: there's a clear inflation, there's a clear coast increase that 367 00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:30,960 Speaker 1: that is happening at the moment, and I don't I 368 00:21:30,960 --> 00:21:33,399 Speaker 1: don't think it's going to go away. What is going 369 00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:36,720 Speaker 1: to be important is UH is still in this case 370 00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:38,919 Speaker 1: to help our customers to find ways on how we 371 00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:42,600 Speaker 1: can optimize supply change. But but the extreme invasion, labor cost, 372 00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:46,160 Speaker 1: energy cost, it is there as it's there to stay 373 00:21:46,200 --> 00:21:48,600 Speaker 1: for for for the coming period, and we need to 374 00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:50,679 Speaker 1: make sure that we find ways on how we be 375 00:21:50,760 --> 00:21:53,679 Speaker 1: more efficient in the way the way we manage our subbrojects. 376 00:21:53,840 --> 00:21:57,720 Speaker 1: What about labor cost oscar You know, um Jamie Diamond, 377 00:21:57,760 --> 00:22:00,639 Speaker 1: the CEO of JP Morgan the other day and he 378 00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:05,359 Speaker 1: has never seen such pressure upward pressure on wages. Are 379 00:22:05,359 --> 00:22:08,719 Speaker 1: you seeing the same thing? Yeah, we do. We do 380 00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:12,680 Speaker 1: see that because that um, labor be couse specifically in 381 00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:17,159 Speaker 1: the US, specifically North America, and labor couse increase is 382 00:22:17,200 --> 00:22:19,680 Speaker 1: substantial and it depends a little bit in which data 383 00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:22,400 Speaker 1: and which which with scarcity there is, but it can 384 00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:25,080 Speaker 1: we can go up to ten percent. So that is 385 00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:28,719 Speaker 1: definitely there at the moment, and that is obviously driving 386 00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:31,240 Speaker 1: part of the inflation um and that's not going to 387 00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:35,320 Speaker 1: go away. UM. I actually think that this, as with 388 00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:37,040 Speaker 1: many of the trends that we see at the moment, 389 00:22:37,080 --> 00:22:41,160 Speaker 1: those trends actually started already pre Corona, but during the 390 00:22:41,200 --> 00:22:44,320 Speaker 1: crisis that has actually accelerated it and now become even 391 00:22:44,359 --> 00:22:48,520 Speaker 1: more visible. But the fact that there is less label 392 00:22:48,760 --> 00:22:51,800 Speaker 1: labor available for for certain type of type of jobs 393 00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:55,040 Speaker 1: was already a signal that was there before, that's still 394 00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:57,240 Speaker 1: there today, and that drives actually the closed up and 395 00:22:57,280 --> 00:22:59,760 Speaker 1: that's why it's important, like what we have been doing 396 00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:03,680 Speaker 1: to make the investments in alternative ways in automation, in globotics, 397 00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,560 Speaker 1: because we need to be innovative in the way we 398 00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:13,000 Speaker 1: manage for install filming centers and by having for instance, 399 00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:18,000 Speaker 1: for Kift truck unmant for Kift trucks, by having picking robots. 400 00:23:18,160 --> 00:23:21,840 Speaker 1: Um then by having collaborative robotics meaning that people work 401 00:23:21,920 --> 00:23:24,959 Speaker 1: together with robots, not replace the work together with robots, 402 00:23:24,960 --> 00:23:29,240 Speaker 1: that actually helps tremendously in UH in solving the issue 403 00:23:29,240 --> 00:23:33,639 Speaker 1: of not only labor costs, but labor scarcity as well. Right, Hey, Oscar, 404 00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:36,080 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. Really appreciate getting your 405 00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:39,520 Speaker 1: perspective here on this global supply chain continues to be 406 00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:43,000 Speaker 1: a challenge for the global economy. Oscar Debak, CEO of 407 00:23:43,160 --> 00:23:47,159 Speaker 1: d h L managing their supply chain and certainly the 408 00:23:47,200 --> 00:23:49,240 Speaker 1: person that I'm sure he gets a lot of phone 409 00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:51,520 Speaker 1: calls from a lot of his customers saying where is 410 00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:54,879 Speaker 1: the stuff? Um, But it's really been extraordinary how the 411 00:23:54,920 --> 00:23:58,840 Speaker 1: global supply chains really been challenged here by the closure 412 00:23:59,000 --> 00:24:01,440 Speaker 1: of the Global account me back in twenty then the 413 00:24:01,560 --> 00:24:05,160 Speaker 1: rapid reopening and rapid re acceleration really kind of threw 414 00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:08,679 Speaker 1: that into disarray for many industries, and we see that 415 00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:13,119 Speaker 1: across the board. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. 416 00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:16,720 Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews with Apple Podcasts 417 00:24:16,840 --> 00:24:20,760 Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm 418 00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:25,000 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Matt Miller three. On false Sweeney, I'm 419 00:24:25,000 --> 00:24:27,640 Speaker 1: on Twitter at pt Sweeney Before the podcast. You can 420 00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:30,160 Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio.