1 00:00:01,200 --> 00:00:07,440 Speaker 1: The volume callin Coward Podcast presented by FanDuel Sports Book. 2 00:00:07,520 --> 00:00:09,639 Speaker 1: No better place to bet the action than on FanDuel 3 00:00:09,680 --> 00:00:12,920 Speaker 1: Sports Book during the football season. There's a lot of reasons. 4 00:00:13,240 --> 00:00:17,239 Speaker 1: It's America's number one sports book. Incredibly easy to use, 5 00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:21,759 Speaker 1: super safe, totally secure, super fast payouts in as quick 6 00:00:21,760 --> 00:00:24,720 Speaker 1: as two hours. You're not going to get that anywhere. Also, 7 00:00:24,840 --> 00:00:28,640 Speaker 1: same game parlay bets, live betting. It's the best. Hey, 8 00:00:28,680 --> 00:00:31,600 Speaker 1: if you're new, just download the FanDuel Sports Book app. 9 00:00:31,640 --> 00:00:34,159 Speaker 1: I did it in fifteen seconds. Get started now sign up. 10 00:00:34,600 --> 00:00:37,159 Speaker 1: Please use the promo code Colin so they know we 11 00:00:37,200 --> 00:00:40,600 Speaker 1: sent you. Please use the promo code Collins c O 12 00:00:40,760 --> 00:00:52,040 Speaker 1: l I in FanDuel sports Book App. Sign Up. Hi, everybody, 13 00:00:52,040 --> 00:00:56,600 Speaker 1: Welcome to our Thanksgiving podcast. Chad Milman Sharper Square from 14 00:00:56,640 --> 00:00:59,280 Speaker 1: the Action Network in ten minutes. But first, Fate questions 15 00:00:59,320 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 1: real answer, you know the deal? I want to talk 16 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:05,120 Speaker 1: about stuff and don't want to wait for you to 17 00:01:05,200 --> 00:01:08,679 Speaker 1: ask me. Dear Colin, has your view of Bill Belichick 18 00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:11,880 Speaker 1: changed this season based on what he's pulled off. The 19 00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:16,520 Speaker 1: only thing, and it's just another layer of his excellence, 20 00:01:16,920 --> 00:01:20,200 Speaker 1: is that the smartest people I know, none of them 21 00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:25,680 Speaker 1: are stubborn. I've never met a truly successful person that's stubborn. 22 00:01:26,200 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 1: They know when to change, when to listen, when to talk, 23 00:01:29,280 --> 00:01:33,680 Speaker 1: and when to consult others. Belichick did two things he'd 24 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:37,479 Speaker 1: never done before. Spent a fortune in free agency three 25 00:01:37,600 --> 00:01:41,440 Speaker 1: hundred million dollars, and he also handed over the draft 26 00:01:41,600 --> 00:01:46,120 Speaker 1: weekend to a scouting department because after several years of 27 00:01:46,240 --> 00:01:51,440 Speaker 1: skill player whiffs, he pivoted. And what did it get him? 28 00:01:51,560 --> 00:01:53,720 Speaker 1: Well in the first round Mac Jones a seventy one 29 00:01:54,080 --> 00:01:57,640 Speaker 1: completion percentage, one hundred and two passer rating in his 30 00:01:57,720 --> 00:02:02,040 Speaker 1: last five games. It got him Romandra Stevenson seventy seven 31 00:02:02,080 --> 00:02:04,880 Speaker 1: yards rushing per game in his last three games. And 32 00:02:04,960 --> 00:02:08,320 Speaker 1: it got him defensive tackle Christian Barmore from Alabama twenty 33 00:02:08,320 --> 00:02:12,120 Speaker 1: six tackles and becoming a real influencer creating a pass 34 00:02:12,200 --> 00:02:15,320 Speaker 1: rush on the inside of the D line. Smart people, 35 00:02:15,440 --> 00:02:20,320 Speaker 1: truly successful people are never stubborn. Dear Colin, what's been 36 00:02:20,360 --> 00:02:24,000 Speaker 1: the biggest disappointment for you in the NFL this year? Well, 37 00:02:24,280 --> 00:02:27,720 Speaker 1: the one team I completely whipped on was the Seattle Seahawks. 38 00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:30,560 Speaker 1: I try never to be a homer, but they'd won 39 00:02:30,639 --> 00:02:33,400 Speaker 1: ten eleven and twelve games. I did not see them 40 00:02:33,440 --> 00:02:36,400 Speaker 1: bottoming out this quickly, and Russell Wilson had never been 41 00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:39,920 Speaker 1: hurt before. But one of the things that concerns me 42 00:02:39,919 --> 00:02:42,560 Speaker 1: with the New York Jets, Robert sal is a defensive coach, 43 00:02:42,960 --> 00:02:46,680 Speaker 1: and the defense is getting progressively worse. What worries me 44 00:02:46,960 --> 00:02:50,000 Speaker 1: about the Seahawks is Pete Carroll's a defensive coach, and 45 00:02:50,040 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 1: the defense in the last four years is getting progressively worse. 46 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:57,040 Speaker 1: In a division with three offensive coaches. He's out schemed 47 00:02:57,280 --> 00:03:01,160 Speaker 1: and outdated. I think if I own the Seahawks, I'd 48 00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:05,600 Speaker 1: fire Pete Carroll, I'd keep Russell Wilson, I'd move Bobby Wagner, 49 00:03:05,880 --> 00:03:09,640 Speaker 1: I'd probably move Jamal Adams. The Seahawks are in a freefall. 50 00:03:09,919 --> 00:03:12,919 Speaker 1: It's been a house of cards for years. I had 51 00:03:13,120 --> 00:03:17,440 Speaker 1: no idea it would blow over this quickly. Dear Colin, 52 00:03:17,520 --> 00:03:20,240 Speaker 1: what do you make of James Franklin signing with Penn 53 00:03:20,240 --> 00:03:24,959 Speaker 1: State for ten years in Melt Tucker staying at Michigan State. Well, 54 00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:30,959 Speaker 1: both were eyed by USC. The downside to Silicon Valley 55 00:03:30,960 --> 00:03:34,760 Speaker 1: for anybody that lives Denver West is that real estate 56 00:03:34,840 --> 00:03:38,200 Speaker 1: has exploded. Now in many instances that's great because if 57 00:03:38,200 --> 00:03:41,520 Speaker 1: you own a home and it has skyrocketed. I just 58 00:03:41,600 --> 00:03:44,360 Speaker 1: had the good fortune of selling a home in Park City, Utah. 59 00:03:44,960 --> 00:03:49,600 Speaker 1: It went way over asking price. The downside in Los Angeles, though, 60 00:03:49,960 --> 00:03:53,320 Speaker 1: for USC and UCLA, a head coach is going to 61 00:03:53,360 --> 00:03:56,400 Speaker 1: make seven million dollars, right a Chip Kelly or whoever 62 00:03:56,560 --> 00:04:01,440 Speaker 1: USC hires. But what do you pay the assist Mel 63 00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 1: Tucker can offer a much greater quality of life to 64 00:04:05,200 --> 00:04:09,520 Speaker 1: his assistance and coordinators in East Lansing. Similarly, James Franklin 65 00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:12,920 Speaker 1: can in rural Pennsylvania. I think a lot of these 66 00:04:12,960 --> 00:04:17,640 Speaker 1: coaches look at USC and the Silicon Valley explosion of 67 00:04:17,720 --> 00:04:21,479 Speaker 1: housing prices in Los Angeles, and I'm not sure UCLA 68 00:04:21,560 --> 00:04:26,680 Speaker 1: or USC can put together elite staffs. I mean, ask yourself, 69 00:04:27,080 --> 00:04:30,520 Speaker 1: an offensive coordinator at USC or UCLA. Let's just take 70 00:04:30,520 --> 00:04:33,400 Speaker 1: the Trojans. Maybe makes a million a year. You know, 71 00:04:34,040 --> 00:04:35,839 Speaker 1: that qualifies for about a three and a half million 72 00:04:35,839 --> 00:04:40,400 Speaker 1: dollars home. That is not a nice home in the 73 00:04:40,480 --> 00:04:44,039 Speaker 1: kind of neighborhoods a top coordinator wants to live in. 74 00:04:44,080 --> 00:04:47,719 Speaker 1: I know that sounds ridiculous, that's the reality of Los Angeles. 75 00:04:48,400 --> 00:04:52,520 Speaker 1: So I think James Franklin, Mel Tucker Luke Farrell. I 76 00:04:52,560 --> 00:04:55,440 Speaker 1: think they look at USC and think we can't put 77 00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:58,680 Speaker 1: together an elite staff. I don't want my special team's 78 00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:02,719 Speaker 1: coach living an hour away. Dear Colin. The Houston Rockets 79 00:05:02,720 --> 00:05:04,680 Speaker 1: have gone from one of the winningest teams in the 80 00:05:04,760 --> 00:05:07,320 Speaker 1: NBA to the worst. What lesson is to be learned? 81 00:05:07,839 --> 00:05:10,320 Speaker 1: I was told this years ago by an NBA executive. 82 00:05:10,440 --> 00:05:12,880 Speaker 1: It's not about having a superstar, It's about having the 83 00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:18,200 Speaker 1: right superstar. Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant, Michael Jordan. They played 84 00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:22,000 Speaker 1: on both ends. Shack and Kobe in their prime, Lebron 85 00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 1: in his prime, d Wade in his prime. James Harden 86 00:05:26,360 --> 00:05:30,280 Speaker 1: is a lot like Carmelo Anthony, offensively gifted, but mailed 87 00:05:30,279 --> 00:05:34,239 Speaker 1: it in on the defensive side. I think that sends 88 00:05:34,320 --> 00:05:37,360 Speaker 1: a really bad message to the rest of the locker room. 89 00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:42,720 Speaker 1: When your greatest superstar, your greatest player, is your best player, 90 00:05:43,160 --> 00:05:45,159 Speaker 1: or at least your best offensive player and a top 91 00:05:45,200 --> 00:05:47,920 Speaker 1: two or three defensive player. That is so good for 92 00:05:48,040 --> 00:05:50,479 Speaker 1: messaging in a locker room. When he's putting that kind 93 00:05:50,480 --> 00:05:52,840 Speaker 1: of effort on the defensive end. Now everybody knows. As 94 00:05:52,839 --> 00:05:55,160 Speaker 1: a player gets into his tenth twelve fifteenth year, he 95 00:05:55,200 --> 00:05:57,800 Speaker 1: will no longer be quick enough, nimble enough, twitchy enough 96 00:05:57,839 --> 00:06:00,720 Speaker 1: to be a great defender. But James Harden was never 97 00:06:00,760 --> 00:06:03,760 Speaker 1: a one. He doesn't have the commitment on the defensive end, 98 00:06:04,040 --> 00:06:07,080 Speaker 1: and he's a little bit of a flaky personality. The 99 00:06:07,200 --> 00:06:13,320 Speaker 1: other thing with great all time players Bird, Magic, Shack, Wade, Duncan, 100 00:06:13,839 --> 00:06:17,960 Speaker 1: they tend to make others better. Harden was great himself, 101 00:06:18,480 --> 00:06:21,800 Speaker 1: rarely made others better. So it's not just about having 102 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:25,320 Speaker 1: a superstar. Carmela was a superstar, Westbrook was a superstar. 103 00:06:25,400 --> 00:06:29,000 Speaker 1: Harden is a superstar. Neither committed on the defensive end. 104 00:06:29,080 --> 00:06:35,760 Speaker 1: It's about having the right superstar. Alright. I bring in 105 00:06:35,800 --> 00:06:39,039 Speaker 1: my buddy Chat Milman, Chief Content Officer, Action Network. I 106 00:06:39,120 --> 00:06:42,720 Speaker 1: had another winning week. My Blazing five, three and two 107 00:06:42,960 --> 00:06:45,920 Speaker 1: took a lot of dogs. I find myself this week 108 00:06:46,240 --> 00:06:50,040 Speaker 1: once again enticed by dogs and my theory has It 109 00:06:50,080 --> 00:06:52,279 Speaker 1: took me about eight to nine weeks to figure this out, 110 00:06:52,320 --> 00:06:54,120 Speaker 1: But I think the top and the bottom of the 111 00:06:54,200 --> 00:06:57,039 Speaker 1: league are small, and I think there's about thirteen to 112 00:06:57,120 --> 00:07:01,560 Speaker 1: fifteen teams that are all based on who's healthier can 113 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:05,799 Speaker 1: beat each other all year. Packers Vikings a great example. 114 00:07:05,839 --> 00:07:08,160 Speaker 1: I think Green Bay's as good as anybody in this league. 115 00:07:08,200 --> 00:07:11,000 Speaker 1: The Vikings maybe the twelfth best team. Because you're at home, 116 00:07:11,040 --> 00:07:13,440 Speaker 1: you're healthier, and you can beat them. So let me 117 00:07:13,440 --> 00:07:17,920 Speaker 1: start with this one of the games I really like 118 00:07:18,040 --> 00:07:21,320 Speaker 1: this week, Rams plus one and a half at Green Bay. So, 119 00:07:21,480 --> 00:07:24,360 Speaker 1: first of all, the fact that the Packers were able 120 00:07:24,440 --> 00:07:27,840 Speaker 1: to beat Arizona missing eleven starters and compete with Minnesota 121 00:07:27,920 --> 00:07:31,840 Speaker 1: when they're tight ends out for the year. Aaron Jones 122 00:07:31,920 --> 00:07:34,640 Speaker 1: is out their number three receiver, they're left tackle, they 123 00:07:34,720 --> 00:07:37,480 Speaker 1: lost their center in the offseason, they're best corner, they're 124 00:07:37,480 --> 00:07:41,200 Speaker 1: best linebacker, and now I get Sean McVay, who's never 125 00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:45,160 Speaker 1: lost leading at half. With ten days seven days of 126 00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:48,400 Speaker 1: extra practice with OBJ, I've been told they're going to 127 00:07:48,520 --> 00:07:51,600 Speaker 1: use a lot of stuff beyond the eleven personnel. They're 128 00:07:51,640 --> 00:07:53,960 Speaker 1: going to catch the Packers a little off guard. Aaron 129 00:07:54,080 --> 00:07:57,400 Speaker 1: Rodgers isn't healthy. I like the Rams plus one and 130 00:07:57,480 --> 00:08:03,800 Speaker 1: a half Sharper square A couple of things. First, you 131 00:08:03,840 --> 00:08:07,040 Speaker 1: went three and two, I went four and one. So 132 00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:11,040 Speaker 1: I'm trying to figure out which which piece of advice 133 00:08:11,080 --> 00:08:13,960 Speaker 1: that I give you that you decided you didn't need 134 00:08:14,000 --> 00:08:17,480 Speaker 1: to take otherwise we could have both been the best 135 00:08:17,480 --> 00:08:23,680 Speaker 1: betters in America. Well, you talked me out of Dallas, 136 00:08:23,800 --> 00:08:26,480 Speaker 1: Kansas City for Blazing five, so I love Dallas. You 137 00:08:26,560 --> 00:08:29,280 Speaker 1: talked me out of it. Okay, I did a same 138 00:08:29,320 --> 00:08:31,440 Speaker 1: game parlay for FanDuel, but I didn't put it in 139 00:08:31,520 --> 00:08:35,480 Speaker 1: my very prestigious Blazing five. You also talked me in 140 00:08:35,520 --> 00:08:39,480 Speaker 1: two Steelers against the Chargers, so I came in with 141 00:08:39,520 --> 00:08:41,839 Speaker 1: about four picks I liked. I flipped on that one, 142 00:08:41,880 --> 00:08:45,320 Speaker 1: so you didn't do any negative. You know, I always 143 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:47,600 Speaker 1: bring in eight to nine picks. Yeah, I come in 144 00:08:47,640 --> 00:08:49,440 Speaker 1: with usually two to three I really like, and then 145 00:08:49,440 --> 00:08:51,960 Speaker 1: I can be talked into other things. So you talked 146 00:08:51,960 --> 00:08:54,640 Speaker 1: me out of two losses. I just want to be 147 00:08:54,640 --> 00:08:59,040 Speaker 1: helpful and that that Steelers game. You know, the right 148 00:08:59,040 --> 00:09:01,120 Speaker 1: side is the winning side, as I always like to say. 149 00:09:01,160 --> 00:09:04,720 Speaker 1: But man, that one was one where you don't know 150 00:09:04,760 --> 00:09:06,760 Speaker 1: how you got there. You just happy to catch the check. 151 00:09:07,120 --> 00:09:12,080 Speaker 1: As for the Rams, the Rams were the sharp side 152 00:09:12,280 --> 00:09:16,920 Speaker 1: because this line opened at three and it is moved 153 00:09:17,040 --> 00:09:19,640 Speaker 1: to Rams minus one, which tells you everything you need 154 00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:23,160 Speaker 1: to know about how this game started. The one thing 155 00:09:23,240 --> 00:09:25,719 Speaker 1: I am thinking about, and we've talked about this last week. 156 00:09:25,720 --> 00:09:28,199 Speaker 1: I remember we talked about the syndicate last week. I 157 00:09:28,240 --> 00:09:32,200 Speaker 1: am wary that there is a syndicate out there that 158 00:09:32,360 --> 00:09:36,439 Speaker 1: is betting down the Rams, because they do believe that 159 00:09:36,440 --> 00:09:39,760 Speaker 1: that is where the public is ultimately going to want 160 00:09:39,760 --> 00:09:42,080 Speaker 1: to bet, and they're going to want to get a 161 00:09:42,120 --> 00:09:45,400 Speaker 1: better number on the Packers. So I'm a little bit 162 00:09:45,480 --> 00:09:48,560 Speaker 1: skeptical that the sharp move is really a sharp move 163 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:51,200 Speaker 1: in favor of the Rams versus just wanting to get 164 00:09:51,200 --> 00:09:55,880 Speaker 1: the Packers at home closer to pick. Who do you like? 165 00:09:57,559 --> 00:10:00,640 Speaker 1: If it's a closer to pick. If it's minus one, 166 00:10:00,679 --> 00:10:06,000 Speaker 1: then I like the Packers, all right, fair enough? I 167 00:10:06,120 --> 00:10:12,880 Speaker 1: like Washington plus two at home against Seattle. Sometimes people 168 00:10:12,960 --> 00:10:16,680 Speaker 1: don't want to admit things, but they're just true. And 169 00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:20,199 Speaker 1: Seattle needs to be in a rebuild. It's a bad secondary, 170 00:10:20,360 --> 00:10:23,880 Speaker 1: it's a battle line, it's a marginal running back crew. 171 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:27,920 Speaker 1: They're not dynamic at tight end. Seattle is not good 172 00:10:28,679 --> 00:10:31,080 Speaker 1: and they're the fourth place team in their division for 173 00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:35,080 Speaker 1: a reason. They have an outdated head coach, They've whipped 174 00:10:35,080 --> 00:10:37,400 Speaker 1: on several draft picks. They can't get a first round 175 00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:39,520 Speaker 1: draft pick right, and they gave up too much for 176 00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:43,520 Speaker 1: Jamal Adams. We are viewing Seattle off ten eleven, twelve 177 00:10:43,559 --> 00:10:46,640 Speaker 1: win seasons as an elite team. They have to blow 178 00:10:46,679 --> 00:10:50,560 Speaker 1: this up. They should trade Bobby Wagner, maybe moved Dwayne 179 00:10:50,559 --> 00:10:53,920 Speaker 1: Brown Washington at home getting points to me is the 180 00:10:53,960 --> 00:10:58,760 Speaker 1: sharp side. Sharper square sharp side. The wise guys are 181 00:10:58,920 --> 00:11:02,119 Speaker 1: absolutely with you. This has been actually a pretty aggressive 182 00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:06,839 Speaker 1: move from the professionals. In the first forty eight hours 183 00:11:06,880 --> 00:11:10,440 Speaker 1: since the line was posted. Started at Seattle minus two 184 00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:14,520 Speaker 1: and a half. Now you actually there are some places 185 00:11:14,920 --> 00:11:19,440 Speaker 1: where you can get Seattle plus one. All the money 186 00:11:19,679 --> 00:11:22,560 Speaker 1: has been coming in on the Washington football team, and 187 00:11:22,640 --> 00:11:24,439 Speaker 1: a lot of times you will not see this kind 188 00:11:24,480 --> 00:11:26,400 Speaker 1: of move. You won't see this kind of reaction from 189 00:11:26,400 --> 00:11:29,480 Speaker 1: professional betters in which they are betting a team like 190 00:11:29,520 --> 00:11:32,800 Speaker 1: the Washington football team that had to win as an 191 00:11:32,880 --> 00:11:38,240 Speaker 1: underdog against a team that had just lost in Seattle. 192 00:11:38,320 --> 00:11:41,880 Speaker 1: It's a natural spot to fade the Washington football team. 193 00:11:42,080 --> 00:11:44,120 Speaker 1: Fade what you think is going to be the overreaction, 194 00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:46,920 Speaker 1: But the truth is everything you just said. You're seeing 195 00:11:46,920 --> 00:11:49,360 Speaker 1: a team in Washington that is starting to play better. 196 00:11:49,400 --> 00:11:51,280 Speaker 1: You know, Taylor Heineke, There was a story about a 197 00:11:51,320 --> 00:11:56,000 Speaker 1: month ago where the Washington football team was looking like 198 00:11:56,080 --> 00:11:58,960 Speaker 1: they were struggling, and the coaches in Taylor Heineke sat 199 00:11:58,960 --> 00:12:00,960 Speaker 1: down and they basically said, you're not playing like you 200 00:12:01,400 --> 00:12:04,320 Speaker 1: you're playing too conservative. You're plan like you're trying to 201 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:07,200 Speaker 1: control the game, your plan like you're afraid to lose 202 00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:09,200 Speaker 1: a game instead of winning the game. And since then 203 00:12:09,559 --> 00:12:11,760 Speaker 1: he's been much more aggressive. He's been playing more like 204 00:12:11,800 --> 00:12:14,720 Speaker 1: a backyard type of ball player that he is. The 205 00:12:14,800 --> 00:12:17,880 Speaker 1: team has overall been playing better. The defense, the front line, 206 00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:20,280 Speaker 1: even at the front four, even without Chase Young, has 207 00:12:20,320 --> 00:12:25,040 Speaker 1: been playing better. But really this is about Seattle rust. 208 00:12:25,240 --> 00:12:28,199 Speaker 1: He just doesn't look right. The ball is in as sharp, 209 00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:31,679 Speaker 1: the passes are falling a receiver's feet. This is as 210 00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:33,480 Speaker 1: much about what's happening on the field than it is 211 00:12:33,520 --> 00:12:37,840 Speaker 1: about sort of the numbers the bookmakers are posting. The 212 00:12:37,920 --> 00:12:40,880 Speaker 1: other game I like is Broncos plus one and a 213 00:12:40,880 --> 00:12:45,959 Speaker 1: half at home against the Chargers. So what we're seeing 214 00:12:45,960 --> 00:12:50,080 Speaker 1: with the Chargers over the last two years is a 215 00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:53,360 Speaker 1: quarterback that's Andrew Luck but not as reckless, who is 216 00:12:53,440 --> 00:12:57,079 Speaker 1: overcoming last year a really bad old line and this 217 00:12:57,200 --> 00:13:01,600 Speaker 1: year regrettable special teams and a soft rush defense. Is 218 00:13:01,640 --> 00:13:05,600 Speaker 1: that we have to be honest about what the Chargers are. 219 00:13:06,600 --> 00:13:09,560 Speaker 1: They're a pretty average team with a rookie coach, with 220 00:13:09,720 --> 00:13:13,679 Speaker 1: a stupendous left tackle and quarterback in some nice weapons, 221 00:13:13,720 --> 00:13:18,640 Speaker 1: But I think Denver's got a better overall roster altitude 222 00:13:19,000 --> 00:13:22,720 Speaker 1: at home getting points. This is the play for me, 223 00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:25,120 Speaker 1: one of my favorite of the week, Sharper Square, I 224 00:13:25,160 --> 00:13:29,319 Speaker 1: like the Broncos. This is how sharp you're getting. This 225 00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:33,040 Speaker 1: is the Wise guys favorite play of the week. To 226 00:13:33,080 --> 00:13:36,120 Speaker 1: the point where Simon Hunter, who's the professional better I 227 00:13:36,200 --> 00:13:39,440 Speaker 1: co host the Favorites with He told me in the 228 00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:42,760 Speaker 1: podcast we recorded today his phone was blown up at 229 00:13:42,800 --> 00:13:45,080 Speaker 1: two o'clock in the morning when lines were first starting 230 00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:48,840 Speaker 1: to come out East Coast time. Are you betting the 231 00:13:48,840 --> 00:13:50,480 Speaker 1: Broncos plus two and a half? Are you betting the 232 00:13:50,520 --> 00:13:52,720 Speaker 1: Broncos plus two and a half? Like he was worried 233 00:13:52,720 --> 00:13:55,600 Speaker 1: that he wasn't going to get there in time. And 234 00:13:55,679 --> 00:13:58,240 Speaker 1: it's not just because you know, the Wise guys tend 235 00:13:58,280 --> 00:14:01,840 Speaker 1: to like short home dogs in these visional matchups. It's 236 00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:04,640 Speaker 1: really because they've been doing what you just described as 237 00:14:04,679 --> 00:14:07,520 Speaker 1: fading the Chargers for the past couple of weeks. They 238 00:14:07,559 --> 00:14:10,920 Speaker 1: realized and we've talked about this that Ravens game that 239 00:14:10,960 --> 00:14:13,960 Speaker 1: the Charters had, that was a telltale sign, and that 240 00:14:14,040 --> 00:14:15,920 Speaker 1: was a game in which the wise guys came in 241 00:14:16,320 --> 00:14:18,600 Speaker 1: hard on the Ravens. And the reason why I go 242 00:14:18,679 --> 00:14:21,200 Speaker 1: back a few weeks for a lot of these games. 243 00:14:21,200 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 1: Whenever we talk about these games is because there are 244 00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:28,720 Speaker 1: pivot points in a season where wise guys tend to understand, Okay, 245 00:14:28,760 --> 00:14:30,760 Speaker 1: this is the line of demarcation. This is when we 246 00:14:30,760 --> 00:14:33,720 Speaker 1: truly understand what is true about this team and what 247 00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:37,040 Speaker 1: has been sort of the fad that they've been riding, 248 00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:40,200 Speaker 1: and there's going to be the regression. Going into that game, 249 00:14:40,440 --> 00:14:43,359 Speaker 1: the Chargers were nearly perfect in third and fourth down conversions, 250 00:14:43,360 --> 00:14:45,240 Speaker 1: and that's how they were winning those games. That's what 251 00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:47,520 Speaker 1: made Justin Herbert look like a world beater, That's what 252 00:14:47,600 --> 00:14:50,920 Speaker 1: made Brandon Staley look so smart. In that game, they 253 00:14:50,960 --> 00:14:53,200 Speaker 1: crashed back down to earth in the third and fourth 254 00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:56,400 Speaker 1: down conversions, and then nothing has changed since then. They're 255 00:14:56,440 --> 00:14:59,320 Speaker 1: the same team that is struggling in those scenarios and 256 00:14:59,400 --> 00:15:02,240 Speaker 1: the media acrity of the roster is catching up to them. 257 00:15:02,320 --> 00:15:05,080 Speaker 1: We saw all that happen in their late game collapse 258 00:15:05,200 --> 00:15:06,840 Speaker 1: in that game of the Steelers which we both had 259 00:15:06,880 --> 00:15:10,040 Speaker 1: the Steelers plut six, but also their weakness plays to 260 00:15:10,040 --> 00:15:11,880 Speaker 1: the strength of the Broncos. You mentioned their roster, their 261 00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:14,920 Speaker 1: running game, two headed monster. In the running game, it's 262 00:15:15,000 --> 00:15:17,720 Speaker 1: really good. The past three weeks. It's averaged one hundred 263 00:15:17,720 --> 00:15:21,320 Speaker 1: and twenty rushing yards per game. They call a lot 264 00:15:21,320 --> 00:15:24,400 Speaker 1: of play action that doesn't play that plays well against 265 00:15:24,400 --> 00:15:28,120 Speaker 1: the Chargers secondary and mostly like Teddy Bridgewater, gets the 266 00:15:28,120 --> 00:15:31,200 Speaker 1: ball out fast, gets it out accurate. The one thing 267 00:15:31,280 --> 00:15:35,240 Speaker 1: the Chargers have a strength is Joey Bosa that that's 268 00:15:35,320 --> 00:15:38,080 Speaker 1: mitigated if you've got Teddy Bridgewater, who can get rid 269 00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:41,840 Speaker 1: of the ball so quickly. Also, like the Colts, plus 270 00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:43,880 Speaker 1: three now two and a half on Fandel against the 271 00:15:43,880 --> 00:15:48,560 Speaker 1: Buccaneers at home. So here's what's interesting about Tampa. They're 272 00:15:48,560 --> 00:15:51,040 Speaker 1: really the same team as last year. So last year 273 00:15:51,080 --> 00:15:54,320 Speaker 1: at this time they were seven and three, averaging twenty 274 00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:56,560 Speaker 1: nine point six points a game and giving up twenty two. 275 00:15:57,200 --> 00:15:59,360 Speaker 1: This year they're seven and three, averaging thirty a game 276 00:15:59,360 --> 00:16:02,680 Speaker 1: and giving up two. They're running backs last year were 277 00:16:02,720 --> 00:16:06,400 Speaker 1: thirty first and attempts now they're twenty ninth. Last year 278 00:16:06,880 --> 00:16:08,920 Speaker 1: their issue was they have a forty three year old 279 00:16:08,960 --> 00:16:12,400 Speaker 1: quarterback that's immobile and a shaky secondary still the issue. 280 00:16:12,800 --> 00:16:17,600 Speaker 1: You don't trust their special teams. We think unlike Kansas 281 00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:20,640 Speaker 1: City or Arizona or Green Bay, where there is a 282 00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:23,240 Speaker 1: next level for their offense to go if it's healthy. 283 00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:26,480 Speaker 1: This is what their offense is with a forty four 284 00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:31,160 Speaker 1: year old quarterback, pure pocket quarterback with a shaky secondary 285 00:16:31,160 --> 00:16:34,760 Speaker 1: in a passing league that doesn't run the ball. This 286 00:16:34,840 --> 00:16:38,040 Speaker 1: is what they are good at home when Tom's comfortable. 287 00:16:38,400 --> 00:16:41,760 Speaker 1: Average on the road the Colts, this is the season 288 00:16:42,120 --> 00:16:45,600 Speaker 1: they're at home getting points. And I'll say this about 289 00:16:45,640 --> 00:16:48,280 Speaker 1: Carson Wentz go to us last eight games, a lot 290 00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:54,240 Speaker 1: of multiple touchdown, no turnover games. I like the Colts here, sharper, square, sharp, 291 00:16:54,480 --> 00:16:57,240 Speaker 1: This is absolutely the sharp side. The Colts are the 292 00:16:57,240 --> 00:17:00,520 Speaker 1: public dogs against the Bills, and then they showed out. 293 00:17:00,640 --> 00:17:03,640 Speaker 1: It was exactly what everyone thought a lot of people 294 00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:05,919 Speaker 1: thought it would be. It's why everyone thought that line 295 00:17:06,240 --> 00:17:09,120 Speaker 1: with the Bills was so off at plus seven plus 296 00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:11,440 Speaker 1: seven and a half. But this line right now was 297 00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:14,040 Speaker 1: as high as it is with the opening at three, 298 00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:15,520 Speaker 1: and now it's down to two and a half, which 299 00:17:15,560 --> 00:17:18,359 Speaker 1: also tells you the money is coming in on the Colts. 300 00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:21,000 Speaker 1: It's because Tom Brady the Bucks one on Monday Night football, 301 00:17:21,080 --> 00:17:24,439 Speaker 1: and they made the Giants look more inept than usual. 302 00:17:24,960 --> 00:17:26,960 Speaker 1: But as you pointed out, the Bucks office was not 303 00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:30,080 Speaker 1: the Buck's offense was not that great. It's just the 304 00:17:30,160 --> 00:17:34,760 Speaker 1: Giants were so bad they hired their offensive coordinator less 305 00:17:34,760 --> 00:17:38,479 Speaker 1: than twenty four hours after the game. That is a 306 00:17:38,480 --> 00:17:41,560 Speaker 1: telltile sign that whatever the Bucks were doing was not 307 00:17:41,720 --> 00:17:45,280 Speaker 1: nearly as good as the Giants were just playing bad. 308 00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:47,800 Speaker 1: Now the Colts, they have one of the best offensive 309 00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:51,320 Speaker 1: lines in football. They're playing healthy, healthy, like, and that 310 00:17:51,359 --> 00:17:54,080 Speaker 1: has been the problem with the Colts. In the first 311 00:17:54,080 --> 00:17:55,680 Speaker 1: five or six weeks of the year. They had this 312 00:17:55,840 --> 00:18:00,119 Speaker 1: dominant line of scrimmage strategy, not unlike the Patriots, they 313 00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:02,280 Speaker 1: didn't have all their weapons. So now they are healthy. 314 00:18:02,320 --> 00:18:05,040 Speaker 1: That's why you're seeing Jonathan Taylor become the dominant player 315 00:18:05,080 --> 00:18:08,440 Speaker 1: that he is. And they're playing against at home, like 316 00:18:08,480 --> 00:18:10,680 Speaker 1: you said, against a team that has really struggled on 317 00:18:10,720 --> 00:18:12,880 Speaker 1: the road. So yeah, if i can get a short 318 00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:14,919 Speaker 1: home dog in this spot with a good team. And 319 00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:17,119 Speaker 1: I'm not as sold on Carson Wentz. I still think 320 00:18:17,160 --> 00:18:19,840 Speaker 1: he's prone to the bone headed mistake. It just hasn't 321 00:18:19,880 --> 00:18:22,639 Speaker 1: hurt him the past few weeks, but I do like 322 00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:30,280 Speaker 1: everything else about this cult team and this number. This Thanksgiving. 323 00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:34,160 Speaker 1: FanDuel Sports Book is thankful for you. That's why they're 324 00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:36,919 Speaker 1: giving all customers up to one hundred dollars bonus on 325 00:18:37,000 --> 00:18:40,040 Speaker 1: same game parlays. That's cool. 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Okay, 351 00:19:57,880 --> 00:20:00,960 Speaker 1: I know this is not a sexy pick, but the 352 00:20:01,000 --> 00:20:07,719 Speaker 1: Dolphins in division has a pretty solvable offense. Right If 353 00:20:07,760 --> 00:20:09,600 Speaker 1: you see him twice a year, you're in New England, 354 00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:13,520 Speaker 1: you're the Jets, You're Buffalo. But twa can be more effective. 355 00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:16,160 Speaker 1: The numbers show if you don't see that regularly, they're 356 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:20,359 Speaker 1: at home getting points against Carolina. Cam still learning the offense. Now, 357 00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:25,199 Speaker 1: Miami is getting healthier on the perimeter. Now Tua no 358 00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:28,720 Speaker 1: longer has anything hovering over him. It's his team, win 359 00:20:28,840 --> 00:20:31,520 Speaker 1: or lose. It's his team, and unlike Daniel Jones, he's 360 00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:34,960 Speaker 1: an accurate deliverer distributor of the football. I think the 361 00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:39,320 Speaker 1: Dolphins feel like they're as good as they're going to be. 362 00:20:39,920 --> 00:20:42,679 Speaker 1: But it's good enough to be a home team getting 363 00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:46,600 Speaker 1: points against a Carolina team that let's be completely honest 364 00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:54,120 Speaker 1: about this really good front seven defensively, not necessarily special 365 00:20:54,160 --> 00:20:57,280 Speaker 1: anywhere else outside of one player, Christian McCaffrey. I like 366 00:20:57,400 --> 00:21:01,960 Speaker 1: Miami in the point Sharper square. What happened to I 367 00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:04,840 Speaker 1: want to enjoy my football. I don't want to bet 368 00:21:04,840 --> 00:21:07,960 Speaker 1: bead games. I don't want to bet bed teams. I'm 369 00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:10,840 Speaker 1: not saying it's a one of my favorite bets. I 370 00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:15,879 Speaker 1: just like the side it's like this is this is 371 00:21:15,960 --> 00:21:19,560 Speaker 1: not dissimilar from and I'm going to talk out of 372 00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:23,160 Speaker 1: both sides of my mouth here, because the initial sharp 373 00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:32,400 Speaker 1: side was Carolina. The number dropped. The Panthers opened as 374 00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:35,040 Speaker 1: four and a half point underdogs, it is now dropped 375 00:21:35,040 --> 00:21:36,760 Speaker 1: to one and a half. It told you that all 376 00:21:36,800 --> 00:21:39,200 Speaker 1: the money is coming in on the Panthers and it's 377 00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:41,960 Speaker 1: because their defense. You talk about sort of the Dolphins 378 00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:46,400 Speaker 1: being solvable in division, a little more challenging outside the division. 379 00:21:47,359 --> 00:21:50,359 Speaker 1: The Panthers defense, even after losing the Washington football team, 380 00:21:50,400 --> 00:21:52,800 Speaker 1: that was really a loss on Cam and his inability 381 00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:57,840 Speaker 1: to move the ball. This is about a the number 382 00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:00,240 Speaker 1: at four and a half, and it's also one of 383 00:22:00,240 --> 00:22:03,159 Speaker 1: those overreaction lines that got a little too inflated on 384 00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:05,160 Speaker 1: the side of the Dolphins because of what you're saying. 385 00:22:05,560 --> 00:22:08,080 Speaker 1: The Dolphins the last couple of weeks, they've been showing 386 00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:11,120 Speaker 1: out right, they've been a little bit better too. When 387 00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:13,800 Speaker 1: you look at his numbers, they're not dinking nunt numbers. 388 00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:15,920 Speaker 1: He's a little more accurate. He s throwing the ball 389 00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:21,560 Speaker 1: down field. The problem is they have zero physical presence 390 00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:23,680 Speaker 1: when it comes to the running game, and the Panthers 391 00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:26,160 Speaker 1: will be able to turn them into a one dimensional team. 392 00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:29,119 Speaker 1: I do think again, I said, I'm talking about at 393 00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:30,679 Speaker 1: both sides of my mouth, because this is just not 394 00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:34,240 Speaker 1: a game that I want to invest in now that 395 00:22:34,280 --> 00:22:36,080 Speaker 1: it's closer to one. Similar to what I said about 396 00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:39,439 Speaker 1: the Packers, I think you probably take the Dolphins. I 397 00:22:39,440 --> 00:22:43,280 Speaker 1: think the value in the Panthers is out all right, 398 00:22:43,320 --> 00:22:45,400 Speaker 1: I know I'm going all dogs. I have one more 399 00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:47,840 Speaker 1: dog I want to talk about. I'm not sold yet. 400 00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:50,840 Speaker 1: By the way, that's what professionals do. I get grief 401 00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:53,000 Speaker 1: all the time. All you do is pick dogs, blah 402 00:22:53,040 --> 00:22:58,520 Speaker 1: blah blah. But dogs are the way to go normally 403 00:22:59,240 --> 00:23:03,880 Speaker 1: because when public comes in, bookmakers over inflate the games 404 00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:06,359 Speaker 1: the side of the games where they think the public 405 00:23:06,440 --> 00:23:09,080 Speaker 1: is going to bet. And so that's why you always 406 00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:12,040 Speaker 1: find value on the underdogs, because the bookmakers know the 407 00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:14,040 Speaker 1: public is going to come in on the more popular teams. 408 00:23:14,320 --> 00:23:17,080 Speaker 1: So go with the dogs, do you man, don't feel 409 00:23:17,080 --> 00:23:19,520 Speaker 1: like you have to bet favorites just to even it out, 410 00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:24,160 Speaker 1: all right? I would take the Titans plus now six 411 00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:27,920 Speaker 1: on FanDuel. It's the best pass rush Mac Jones will 412 00:23:27,960 --> 00:23:30,479 Speaker 1: face in a month, and they don't have to blitz 413 00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:35,399 Speaker 1: to create the pass rush. Tannehill without Derrick Henry is 414 00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:38,920 Speaker 1: more prone to mistakes, but as I've often said, well 415 00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:44,840 Speaker 1: coached talented teams oft embarrassing losses virtually bounce back ninety 416 00:23:44,840 --> 00:23:49,080 Speaker 1: percent of the time. I think New England's overinflated. I 417 00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:51,480 Speaker 1: think this is an important game for Tennessee with the 418 00:23:51,560 --> 00:23:54,600 Speaker 1: Colts now coming back. I like the Titans and the 419 00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:58,080 Speaker 1: point Sharper square. It's sharp, and I'm sick. I'm sick 420 00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:02,240 Speaker 1: about it saying it. But sometimes betting means doing bad things. 421 00:24:02,320 --> 00:24:04,520 Speaker 1: It doesn't mean doing the popular thing. It means doing 422 00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:07,480 Speaker 1: the right thing. And for the past two weeks, you 423 00:24:07,560 --> 00:24:10,960 Speaker 1: and I on this show, we faded the Titans. We 424 00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:14,480 Speaker 1: have said they're overrated. Last week on the show, we 425 00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:17,560 Speaker 1: said the Texans outright bet them on the money line. 426 00:24:17,560 --> 00:24:21,119 Speaker 1: I hope you did. I did. It's really the over 427 00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:24,040 Speaker 1: inflation of the Titans that we were fading. Now is 428 00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:27,920 Speaker 1: the over inflation of the Patriots that we're fading. And 429 00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:30,919 Speaker 1: it feels really bad to bet a Titans team that 430 00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:34,240 Speaker 1: is coming off an outright loss at home to a 431 00:24:34,359 --> 00:24:40,160 Speaker 1: really bad team in the Texans, especially against Bill Belichick, 432 00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:43,760 Speaker 1: no matter the situation, because when it was Belichick and Brady, 433 00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:49,639 Speaker 1: those were those two were defining the odds in situational 434 00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:53,639 Speaker 1: play every single week, right anytime they were they are 435 00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:55,840 Speaker 1: a double digit favored on the road, doesn't matter, bet 436 00:24:55,840 --> 00:25:02,080 Speaker 1: the Patriots. But we now have to consider that with 437 00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:07,080 Speaker 1: all the bets coming in on New England, we have 438 00:25:07,200 --> 00:25:11,000 Speaker 1: to think about the Titans. As you said, they historically 439 00:25:11,560 --> 00:25:15,280 Speaker 1: play up to or down to their competition. They lost 440 00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:18,560 Speaker 1: to the Jets and the Texans. This year, they have 441 00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:22,480 Speaker 1: wins against the Rams, against Kansas City, against the Colts. 442 00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:26,639 Speaker 1: I mean, it's disgusting, but the Titans are the sharp side. 443 00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:33,240 Speaker 1: I've been taking one big favorite every week. The one 444 00:25:33,280 --> 00:25:36,199 Speaker 1: that attracts me is the Dallas Cowboys. Minus seven to 445 00:25:36,200 --> 00:25:39,560 Speaker 1: seven and a half. So when you're not right, you 446 00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:41,960 Speaker 1: have to plan. A short week on the road is 447 00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:46,760 Speaker 1: not a place to get right. Henry Ruggs loss is 448 00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:50,680 Speaker 1: now a team that can't push the ball vertically. Last 449 00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:54,040 Speaker 1: three games, Derek Carr, four touchdowns, four picks. He's not right. 450 00:25:55,240 --> 00:25:57,640 Speaker 1: They were an inconsistent running team to begin with when 451 00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:00,439 Speaker 1: the interim coach. Now they lose half a day prep 452 00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:03,959 Speaker 1: going on the road. They've scored fifteen points on average 453 00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:06,600 Speaker 1: the last three games. Dallas will be a little healthier. 454 00:26:06,920 --> 00:26:11,280 Speaker 1: I would take Dallas and swallow the points sharper square. Yeah, 455 00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:14,200 Speaker 1: it's hard to say that taking seven points or laying 456 00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:19,280 Speaker 1: seven points is the sharp side. And I can tell 457 00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:23,040 Speaker 1: you there are professionals who will swallow the seven and 458 00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:27,119 Speaker 1: just they will take the Raiders the Cowboys out of 459 00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:29,399 Speaker 1: the sharp side here. A lot of it is what 460 00:26:29,440 --> 00:26:33,040 Speaker 1: you said about the Raiders, and Derek Carr has not 461 00:26:33,160 --> 00:26:35,159 Speaker 1: looked right. He was a different quarterback when he had 462 00:26:35,200 --> 00:26:39,560 Speaker 1: Henry Ruggs, and so this team really has come back 463 00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:43,280 Speaker 1: down to earth. Now the Cowboys are home, they're on Thanksgiving. 464 00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:47,679 Speaker 1: We never like to play decent sized favorites that the 465 00:26:47,720 --> 00:26:51,919 Speaker 1: public loves, is the axiom that we live by. But 466 00:26:52,040 --> 00:26:55,840 Speaker 1: here is a stat since two thousand and five on Thanksgiving, 467 00:26:56,600 --> 00:27:00,680 Speaker 1: public favorites, public favorites getting more than fifty seven percent 468 00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:04,600 Speaker 1: of the bets are twenty four and seven. So if 469 00:27:04,640 --> 00:27:09,000 Speaker 1: you're going to play a favorite, is that is adored 470 00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:11,600 Speaker 1: by the public, this is the day to do it. 471 00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:14,680 Speaker 1: And you give thanks that you finally get to bet 472 00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:18,800 Speaker 1: a favorite without any guilt. And finally the game I 473 00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:22,560 Speaker 1: haven't mentioned that you like? And why, well, there's a couple. 474 00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:27,000 Speaker 1: I still love the Texans. I'm going to ride that train. 475 00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:29,639 Speaker 1: I've loved him ever since Tyrod Taylor came back. We 476 00:27:29,680 --> 00:27:32,160 Speaker 1: didn't win against the Dolphins. He was a little bit 477 00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:37,000 Speaker 1: rusty spot on against the Titans, and look they're hosting 478 00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:38,800 Speaker 1: the Jets. This game was a two and a half. 479 00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:42,680 Speaker 1: He's just a quarterback who consistently wins, and he puts 480 00:27:42,680 --> 00:27:44,639 Speaker 1: his team in a position to win. We saw it 481 00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:46,000 Speaker 1: in the first game of the year. We saw it 482 00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:48,919 Speaker 1: when he came back against the Titans. The Jets do 483 00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:51,640 Speaker 1: not have that in any way, shape or form. Most 484 00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:54,880 Speaker 1: professionals are making the Texans about four point favorites. I'm 485 00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:56,920 Speaker 1: getting them at two and a half, so I liked 486 00:27:56,920 --> 00:28:00,359 Speaker 1: them here. I also with the news that t J. 487 00:28:00,520 --> 00:28:03,919 Speaker 1: Watt is likely to play, Mike Tomlin saying he expects 488 00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:07,439 Speaker 1: him to play on Sunday. I like the Steelers at 489 00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:09,920 Speaker 1: plus four and a half. This defense with him back 490 00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:14,680 Speaker 1: against a really terrible offensive line putting Joe Burrow in 491 00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:16,720 Speaker 1: bad spots. That that line feels a little bit too 492 00:28:16,800 --> 00:28:22,280 Speaker 1: high for introvision game that should be about three. Chad Millman, 493 00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:25,120 Speaker 1: have a happy Thanksgiving to you and the fam. YouTube 494 00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:28,199 Speaker 1: my friend. I hope you enjoy at The Volume Sports 495 00:28:28,320 --> 00:28:32,800 Speaker 1: YouTube channel, Twitter, Instagram, rate review, subscribe, We'll talk soon. 496 00:28:47,320 --> 00:28:48,040 Speaker 1: The Volume