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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along
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Speaker 2: this morning. The President ramping gun pressure on other countries,
Speaker 2: demanding support for escorting vessels through the strain of for merge.
Speaker 2: Trump threatening NATO with a quote very bad future and
Speaker 2: to delay his summit would shine of President Jiji pink
Speaker 2: nom and rule. The former senior US Intelligence official and
Speaker 2: senior advisor at csis non welcome back to the program.
Speaker 2: We seen reports over the past few days of moving
Speaker 2: additional assets into the region and what does the next
Speaker 2: phase of this conflict look like?
Speaker 3: Good morning.
Speaker 4: The United States is not preparing for a greater involvement.
Speaker 4: It would lead to boots on the ground, but the
Speaker 4: commitment of the United States does remain focused on a
Speaker 4: coercive approach to this. There is no sign of a
Speaker 4: diplomatic engagement in the near term. So you basically have
Speaker 4: a situation where the United States approaches to beat down
Speaker 4: Iran's missile and drone capacity, to hit the regime on
Speaker 4: its police, its interior forces, and the hopes that this
Speaker 4: might provoke some sort of unrest to open the Strait
Speaker 4: of Hormuz. And at the same time the regime regime
Speaker 4: is trying to outlast this by striking economic targets that
Speaker 4: echo into the world economy to put pressure on the
Speaker 4: United States. Each side is trying to outlast the other.
Speaker 5: Norm when it comes to Carg Island, how significant was
Speaker 5: that hit over the weekend from the President.
Speaker 4: Well, the United States certainly destroyed every military site on
Speaker 4: the island, and the island is indeed the primary artery
Speaker 4: for Iran's outlet of oil. It has no secondary outlet
Speaker 4: of any any consequence. The port of Jask, which Iran
Speaker 4: has attempted to open in the Gulf of Oman, has
Speaker 4: a very modest output, but the the Harg Island appears
Speaker 4: to be operational for all of its oil output capacity.
Speaker 4: I think there are a couple of ships that burst
Speaker 4: very quickly after the U. S military operation, and I
Speaker 4: think that's consistent. But the President was trying to do
Speaker 4: trying to message the Iranians, Look, we can touch you
Speaker 4: here if we wish. We're going to touch the military elements,
Speaker 4: but we can take this farther. Why don't you win
Speaker 4: the conflict. I don't think it changed the Iranian position,
Speaker 4: but it certainly sent a message in.
Speaker 5: Terms of the military strike on carg Island. What does
Speaker 5: this mean for the operational capacity of the IRGC, Well.
Speaker 4: It doesn't really touch the IRGC's capacity per se. The
Speaker 4: iergy c's capacity is derived from its missiles, it's derived
Speaker 4: from its drones, and it's derived from its internal military
Speaker 4: placements that suppress the people. So it's got plenty of
Speaker 4: capacity that doesn't rely upon of the economy, doesn't rely
Speaker 4: upon the banking capacity. It's accessible reserve, so it's not
Speaker 4: a money issue that keeps the iergacy going at present.
Speaker 6: What role do you think the ground trips would play
Speaker 6: You mentioned it does seem like there could be a
Speaker 6: preparation to send a special unit of marines over potentially
Speaker 6: even to carg Island. Do you understand or have an
Speaker 6: understanding of what that would look like.
Speaker 4: I think that's very unlikely at present. The US commander's
Speaker 4: first option at this point would not be to create
Speaker 4: a force protection problem for himself. His goals to create
Speaker 4: a force protection problem for the Iranians. This unit, although
Speaker 4: capable certainly of ground operations, probably would have its first
Speaker 4: goal to improve counter drone operations and improve protection capacity
Speaker 4: for units. Although some ground operations could conceivably be part
Speaker 4: of its mission, it's a relatively small force for such
Speaker 4: an activity, Norman.
Speaker 6: Are you seeing an off ramp evolving here?
Speaker 4: Not? At present, the conflict will likely continue for some
Speaker 4: weeks on each side. But this said, the United States
Speaker 4: and Israel have absolutely eroded Iran's missile and drone capacity
Speaker 4: to a far, far greater agree than Iran ever anticipated.
Speaker 3: And the golf partners, particularly the.
Speaker 4: United Arab Emirates in Saudi Arabia, have done an absolutely
Speaker 4: spectacular job of defense, as well as Bahrain, Kuwait and
Speaker 4: the Qataris. And I think you're seeing that years of
Speaker 4: investment of training, equipment, and the leadership of these programs
Speaker 4: has done spectacular work. And indeed Fujera's ability to put
Speaker 4: itself back online demonstrates just the redundancy of the systems
Speaker 4: and the leadership of the Amorti oil program under individuals
Speaker 4: such as doctor sultanage Job, where it's really coming to
Speaker 4: the forefront of keeping the world's economic programs going but normal.
Speaker 5: At what point do the Gold allies have to go
Speaker 5: to the White House and say enough is Enough's a
Speaker 5: lot of reporting over the week about Mohammed bin Salman
Speaker 5: urging harsh action against Iran, But at one point do
Speaker 5: they say this is just too harsh Right now in
Speaker 5: our economies, I.
Speaker 4: Don't see that happening yet. Now, certainly there's going to
Speaker 4: be an economic blow. Remember these countries derive their economic
Speaker 4: gains from tourism, from transit. Dubai Airport was hit today
Speaker 4: by a drone. That's a single drone attack. That's obviously
Speaker 4: a messaging attack by the Iranians. It's meant to disrupt,
Speaker 4: it's not meant to cause massive damage. So that economic
Speaker 4: blow is there. But these countries at the same time
Speaker 4: have shown tremendous resilience. So you're looking get it up.
Speaker 4: Going to Abu Dhabi in Dubai and Saudi Arabia. They've
Speaker 4: shown tremendous capacity to keep their economies going during all
Speaker 4: of this. Expatriates are generally quite comfortable in these environments
Speaker 4: by many many reports.
Speaker 2: Stay with us. More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this.
Speaker 2: We begin this hour with stocks pushing higher on the
Speaker 2: S and P five hundred by about seven tenths of
Speaker 2: one percent. Stephen Parker of JP Morgan Private Bank with
Speaker 2: a seventy four hundred to seventy six hundred year end
Speaker 2: SMP target and right in the following, we've not changed
Speaker 2: our base case forecast for growth, but acknowledge increasing downside
Speaker 2: risk the longer energy prices remain elevated. Stephen joins us
Speaker 2: now for more. Stephen, good morning, morning. It's going to
Speaker 2: see it. So let's talk about what we've seen so far.
Speaker 2: Five percent move on stocks, sixty bases points of widening
Speaker 2: on high yield spreads from the ties of the year
Speaker 2: so far. Is that a sign of resilience or complacency?
Speaker 1: You know, I do you think the markets are probably
Speaker 1: a bit complacent given the move that we've seen in
Speaker 1: energy markets. We've always said to clients, so when it
Speaker 1: comes to geopolitics, geopolitics rarely have long term impacts on markets,
Speaker 1: but we have to acknowledge that, particularly when energy is
Speaker 1: at the center of the storm here, they can certainly
Speaker 1: have a bigger impact on markets in the short term.
Speaker 1: You mentioned the pullback that we've seen in the US.
Speaker 1: We've seen a bigger impact in international markets, particularly in
Speaker 1: places like Europe and Asia who are more exposed and
Speaker 1: more at risk to these higher prices. But there does
Speaker 1: seem to be a bit of complacency in markets.
Speaker 2: Where do you see that complacency concentrated at the moment.
Speaker 1: Well, I think the investors are just looking at the
Speaker 1: fact that the expectations for energy prices are to recover
Speaker 1: and be back around eighty dollars in the not too
Speaker 1: distant future, and in that sort of world, then we
Speaker 1: can get back to the fundamental story around US equity
Speaker 1: markets and double digit earnings growth, which is what we expect.
Speaker 1: The challenge is if we end up in a situation
Speaker 1: where we're looking at triple digit oil not just for
Speaker 1: the next month or two, but for the next three
Speaker 1: to six months, then you have to start asking yourself
Speaker 1: about the outlook for growth and the outlook for inflation.
Speaker 6: Are people more accurately pricing. In that perspective. Internationally, you
Speaker 6: talked about the hit to international markets.
Speaker 3: Well, I think you're.
Speaker 1: Seeing two things. One, places like Europe and Asia are
Speaker 1: more exposed to higher prices in the near term, and
Speaker 1: the risks of those prices remaining higher are there for
Speaker 1: a longer time period. The US is buffered by a
Speaker 1: greater percense of energy independence. I think you're also seeing
Speaker 1: a bit of a flight to safety of flight to quality.
Speaker 1: You're seeing it in the rally and the dollar. You're
Speaker 1: also seeing it in the recent out performance of tech.
Speaker 1: Not too long ago, we were talking about tech being
Speaker 1: under pressure, the rotation into more cyclical parts of the market.
Speaker 1: I think investors are looking at this environment and saying
Speaker 1: the long term structural fundamentals, the earnings growth, the upgrades
Speaker 1: that we're seeing in the tech sector, and that's bringing
Speaker 1: money back into the US and supporting US equity markets.
Speaker 6: Do you think this has materially shifted the narrative that
Speaker 6: took hold in the first two months of the year,
Speaker 6: which is diversify outside of the United States, diversify outside
Speaker 6: of tech. Has that pulled it full circle and actually
Speaker 6: caused the leadership to come from the United States and
Speaker 6: from big tech.
Speaker 1: I think perhaps in the near term, but I do
Speaker 1: think that longer term there is still that diversification story.
Speaker 1: In particular, we think there are interesting opportunities in emerging
Speaker 1: markets who have been hit the hardest in this recent
Speaker 1: move higher in oil prices. But still there's a really
Speaker 1: interesting story, particularly in Asia around the tech story. There
Speaker 1: the hardware sector. We've seen massive earnings upgrades in places
Speaker 1: like Taiwan, Korea, India. We think that story continues, and
Speaker 1: we're looking to build a shopping list with our clients
Speaker 1: to say, if this volatility continues, what are we thinking
Speaker 1: about adding emerging markets would be sparely in that bucket at.
Speaker 2: The top of a shopping list over at Newberger Berman
Speaker 2: just on the program months ago. The bond market, they
Speaker 2: believe all roadally to lower bondiards here even if you
Speaker 2: fix this crisis over in the Middle East, lower bonyards,
Speaker 2: if you don't lower bond yards, because if you don't,
Speaker 2: ultimately it's going to hit growth and yield to the
Speaker 2: long end of the curve, are going to roll over.
Speaker 2: Is there an opening kit in the bond market?
Speaker 1: You know, our view of around rates is that we're
Speaker 1: probably more rangebound. We came into this year a little
Speaker 1: bit more conservative than the market. We thought we would
Speaker 1: see one cut from the FED. That's still our base
Speaker 1: case view. The challenge is going to be this push
Speaker 1: and pull between potential for lower growth and potential for
Speaker 1: higher inflation. That's why it's going to be in interesting
Speaker 1: to listen to what we hear from the Fed this
Speaker 1: week as they try to set the narrative, as they
Speaker 1: try to guide markets in terms of which one they're
Speaker 1: going to prioritize. I still think that there's room potentially
Speaker 1: for another cut, but we don't think necessarily that rates
Speaker 1: are going to move meaningfully lower from here.
Speaker 5: How do they guide the market in this moment when
Speaker 5: in the past, when we saw energy price spikes, they
Speaker 5: just called it transitory and they were wrong.
Speaker 1: Well, I think what's going to be interesting is to
Speaker 1: listen to their comments on not just energy markets, because
Speaker 1: I think those are more difficult to prognosticate, not just
Speaker 1: for us, but also for the FED. I think it's
Speaker 1: going to be interesting to listen to what they say
Speaker 1: about labor markets. Obviously, recent data has been a bit
Speaker 1: weaker than what we would like to see. The question
Speaker 1: is going to be about not just sort of the
Speaker 1: demand for labor, but the supply of labor, and if
Speaker 1: they indicate that that is front and foremost at the
Speaker 1: top of their mind, that could indicate that they're willing
Speaker 1: to let inflation run a little bit hotter at the
Speaker 1: expense of supporting labor markets.
Speaker 5: You mentioned semiconductor some of these companies you like. Have
Speaker 5: you thought about other issues with the strader form moves
Speaker 5: besides oil? A third of global helium gooes to shade
Speaker 5: removes that is needed when you make semi conductors.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean what we're seeing everyone is looking at
Speaker 1: the first order effects, which is higher energy prices, higher
Speaker 1: gasoline prices. But as you point out, Amory, there are
Speaker 1: long term, meaningful impacts around supply chains, broadly speaking, in
Speaker 1: different industries around the world. And the challenge is if
Speaker 1: these things get turned off, they don't just get turned
Speaker 1: on with a flip of the switch. One of the
Speaker 1: themes that we've been talking about a lot with clients
Speaker 1: is this idea of the shift from globalization to global fragmentation,
Speaker 1: and the idea that countries and companies are going to
Speaker 1: be more concerned about supply chain resiliency rather than supply
Speaker 1: chain efficiency. And so one of the areas of focus
Speaker 1: has been on this idea of national champions and strategic
Speaker 1: industries as the US, as Europe, as Asia look to
Speaker 1: develop these national champion companies in places like power and infrastructure,
Speaker 1: security and defense, and technology.
Speaker 2: I'm going to ask you a really unfair question. Surprise
Speaker 2: yourself and forgive me. Forgive me for doing this. But
Speaker 2: as I sit here and listen to this and you
Speaker 2: bring up chips and about geopolitics, a lot of this
Speaker 2: is scenario analysis, but I think it's a scenario that
Speaker 2: we need to explore. How would you react if China
Speaker 2: use this as an opportunity to go after Taiwan.
Speaker 1: I think that question is coming up more and more
Speaker 1: in our conversation.
Speaker 2: What do you say back to clients?
Speaker 1: I think we have to acknowledge that it is a
Speaker 1: significant risk, and I think that markets would react more
Speaker 1: aggressively to that type of news even than what we're
Speaker 1: seeing as it relates two energy prices. I do think
Speaker 1: at the end of the day, there is still an
Speaker 1: economic agreement amongst the world, and the impact that that
Speaker 1: might have on the economy probably reduces some of the
Speaker 1: risks there, but it's a risk that we need to acknowledge.
Speaker 1: And at the end of the day, when it comes
Speaker 1: to geopolitics, we don't manage portfolios around tail risks, and
Speaker 1: in the long run, that's a losing strategy. It's why
Speaker 1: we lean into diversification. It's why we think about global
Speaker 1: investing stocks and bonds, but also diversifiers in a portfolio
Speaker 1: related to higher inflation, which has been top of mind
Speaker 1: for our client.
Speaker 3: And that's the risk.
Speaker 2: It's because those supply chains diversified enough stay with us.
Speaker 2: More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this. Francisco at lunch
Speaker 2: of Bank for America writing this, Brent could well average
Speaker 2: one hundred dollars a barrel for the year if the
Speaker 2: war impacts oil balances significantly into the third quarter, and
Speaker 2: could average near one thirty if the disruptions extend into
Speaker 2: the fourth quarter. Francisco joins us now for more. Francisco,
Speaker 2: welcome to the program, sir. I want to start with
Speaker 2: a key assumption of yours in your research, we do
Speaker 2: not embed any permanent supply loss from this war. Francisco,
Speaker 2: why is that line so important?
Speaker 7: Thanks for having me, John, and great to see you again,
Speaker 7: it's very important because if we end up with some
Speaker 7: meaningful destruction of energy acids, we are going to have
Speaker 7: to We're going to see former points increasing very quickly
Speaker 7: in the curves in this curves that that mister Hassett
Speaker 7: was referring to his comments. So of course we've seen
Speaker 7: Hart Island, Iran's main oil loading terminal being struck over
Speaker 7: the weekend, and there was a clear point made that
Speaker 7: energy infrastructure was still intact even though military acids had
Speaker 7: been specifically targeted.
Speaker 3: So I think it's it's very important.
Speaker 7: But of course in wars, as you know, it's difficult
Speaker 7: to find sometimes a closure and and and you know
Speaker 7: we are we are always one step away from a
Speaker 7: major escalation on the energy side, and that's I think
Speaker 7: the fear the all market has.
Speaker 2: There are supply chain realities though that we could discuss
Speaker 2: right now. If you shut in production, how hard is
Speaker 2: it to restart it and get back production to where
Speaker 2: it was before?
Speaker 7: Well, I mean, I think I think there are some
Speaker 7: concerns around that, but again, most oil fields across the
Speaker 7: Middle East are are conventional, so I would expect a
Speaker 7: lot of the production to come back relatively quickly.
Speaker 3: Refineries are another point of concern.
Speaker 7: We saw the Terran refinery, or at least the run
Speaker 7: refinery fuel depots being targeted. The refined itself is unclear
Speaker 7: what's its scarence status, but I think I think generally
Speaker 7: most assets should be able to come back within a
Speaker 7: month or two months and when the war ends. And
Speaker 7: now having settled that, another key assumption in our numbers
Speaker 7: is that Hormos is going to be reopening sometime soon
Speaker 7: to and record the majority of this traffic, which might
Speaker 7: also be maybe too far fretter an assumption. That's one
Speaker 7: very very important concern. Hormos, as you pointed out, is
Speaker 7: the joke point for a lot of the commodity flow
Speaker 7: in and out of the world.
Speaker 6: Francisco, do you have a day circled on the calendar
Speaker 6: this week to John's point earlier where you start to
Speaker 6: challenge some of your assumptions and shift to some of
Speaker 6: the one hundred and thirty dollar a barrel base cases.
Speaker 7: Well, look, I mean, we know the hoodies were able
Speaker 7: to disrupt traffic in Babblement that for about twenty eight months,
Speaker 7: so I wan't to remind everybody of that flows were
Speaker 7: down from nine million barrels a day to.
Speaker 3: Four point one four point two.
Speaker 7: Now, the difference between mavem Mon Devn and Hormosis that
Speaker 7: there's clear alternatives that allowed shippers to reroute. Those seventy
Speaker 7: vessels that used to cross, a lot of them rerouted
Speaker 7: through the cape. So also I think a big relief
Speaker 7: valve for Bible that here there's no clear rerouting. So
Speaker 7: I think I think the options are not great to
Speaker 7: reopen the strait pretty good in the line of all
Speaker 7: the capabilities that that Iran might have. And also, to
Speaker 7: be honest, this quickly becomes a bit of a guerrilla
Speaker 7: war like we saw in Yemen, and I think shippers
Speaker 7: themselves will will be very very costures not to take
Speaker 7: that route if there's risk of their vessels sending up
Speaker 7: in fire, and we've seen twenty of those already being attacker,
Speaker 7: so I think so it's a difficult time for shippers,
Speaker 7: for insurers.
Speaker 3: Everyone's kind of waiting for a resolution.
Speaker 7: But if it doesn't come up in the next few weeks,
Speaker 7: I mean I'm going to give it maybe until the.
Speaker 3: End of the month. Things can get very very complicated
Speaker 3: for weight prices.
Speaker 6: We had Jeff Curry of Carlisle on last week, and
Speaker 6: he was talking about how even if the straight up
Speaker 6: removes is opened this week or next week, there is
Speaker 6: going to be an extra risk premium placed not only
Speaker 6: on oil, but a whole bunch of different commodities, partly
Speaker 6: because there'll be nations that are stockpiling and kin to
Speaker 6: what China has done, and partly because people will understand
Speaker 6: that there is that risk of transporting goods on the seas.
Speaker 6: Do you agree with that thesis?
Speaker 7: Yeah, I think the war is going to it's going
Speaker 7: to transform the way we think about commodities more fundamentally.
Speaker 7: Remember in the nineteen nineties, Japan pushed for just in time,
Speaker 7: and in the twenty twenties it's been China's just in
Speaker 7: case strategy.
Speaker 3: Of inventory accumulation.
Speaker 7: So they've been building up huge oil reserves, and we've seen, obviously,
Speaker 7: in part because trade tensions, in part of it because
Speaker 7: of political slash military tensions, we've seen a big buildout
Speaker 7: in commodity inventories. I think this trend only speeds up
Speaker 7: once the war's over, and I think that provides support
Speaker 7: to long dated commodity prices.
Speaker 3: Sooner or later, and we'll.
Speaker 7: See I think a bit of a bit of a
Speaker 7: mad rush once we are out of the war, but again,
Speaker 7: we need to finish. We need to see this war
Speaker 7: coming out to an end, because if we don't, I
Speaker 7: think the risks of recession will grow by the week
Speaker 7: as we head into April, and definitely if we are
Speaker 7: still in the same place in.
Speaker 3: May looking into a third quarter.
Speaker 7: I've already mentioned we could see spikes t one hundred
Speaker 7: and sixty hours of barrel. If things keep going, we
Speaker 7: could see Brent breaking two hundred doors of barrel. I
Speaker 7: think it may take a longer to get there, but
Speaker 7: it's important to understand that.
Speaker 3: We don't have that much time, and.
Speaker 7: Obviously at US a little more instaly than all regions.
Speaker 7: But I think in particular Europe is very very exposed,
Speaker 7: as are many other Asian countries, particularly in Northeast Asian countries.
Speaker 5: Francisco, I know you that you track what is going
Speaker 5: on in terms of the OPEC countries, and we've learned
Speaker 5: this morning at Bloomberg that the UAE production has fallen
Speaker 5: to about two million barrels a day. It was closer
Speaker 5: to three point six in February. What other countries do
Speaker 5: you see production really falling off a cliff when it
Speaker 5: comes to the Gulf.
Speaker 7: Well, so it is known that the Iraq has been
Speaker 7: a curtailing output as Haskubai remember that, I mean, I
Speaker 7: mean we think probably about ten to eleven million barrels
Speaker 7: a day of production has been curtailed in the past
Speaker 7: two weeks, so it's about ten percent of the world supplies,
Speaker 7: about twenty percent.
Speaker 3: This will pass us through hormus.
Speaker 7: So we've seen about profunctional academy our health. The other
Speaker 7: big issue I think is refined petroleum products. Refineries have
Speaker 7: been shut down across the board. And the issue with refineries,
Speaker 7: as you know, we don't really have a strategy paternal
Speaker 7: reserve for petroleum products. We have it for crue oil,
Speaker 7: so it's a little bit in mislabeled. Real reserve is
Speaker 7: really so it's through the crudel oid reserve. So if
Speaker 7: we lose refining capacity, that impacts petrochemical units. You pointed
Speaker 7: out to weddings in India for LPGs like propane, and honestly,
Speaker 7: like it's the supply chain, there's locations that are building
Speaker 7: up in the background that are gigantic. I mean, remember
Speaker 7: one percent of energy is roughly one percent of GDP,
Speaker 7: So if you take out ten percentage points of oil,
Speaker 7: and oil is about a third of energy.
Speaker 3: Plus obviously we're losing on gas.
Speaker 7: We are looking at potentially seven or eight percentage points
Speaker 7: of energy sucked out the world's system right now, and
Speaker 7: that's going to have a big knockdown effect on GDP
Speaker 7: very soon if those if that disruption doesn't get resolved.
Speaker 5: I'm glad you brought up products because a lot of
Speaker 5: the conversations I had over the weekend was centered around
Speaker 5: jet fuel, diesel LPG. When it comes to these golf exports,
Speaker 5: are they having to start to pick and choose what
Speaker 5: they're going to export, what's the most important for the
Speaker 5: global economy.
Speaker 7: Well, we are seeing very little petroleum, very little in
Speaker 7: terms of patronu products flowing to the golf. I mean,
Speaker 7: my understanding is whatever's been flowing has been Iranian crude
Speaker 7: oil to tune of one point five to two million.
Speaker 3: Barrels a day.
Speaker 7: And again those those are crude vessels heading for China,
Speaker 7: which I think sets a very interesting next set of
Speaker 7: days with harg Island now being a bit in limbo.
Speaker 7: But also importantly, I think the petroleum products are already
Speaker 7: experiencing huge distress. Jet fuel prices are two hundred and
Speaker 7: fifty hours in barrel already, right, So we've seen that,
Speaker 7: and and we've seen in fact Dubai crewe oil over
Speaker 7: one hundred and fifty dollars a barrel. Again that's crude
Speaker 7: oil for the delivery in the Persian Gulf. And of
Speaker 7: course we know China has been curtailing, has actually banned
Speaker 7: the export of petroleum product fuels like gasoline, jet fuel,
Speaker 7: and diesel, which is in part exacerbating this problem. So
Speaker 7: I think the question is who else is going to
Speaker 7: do it? Who else is going to preserve or limit
Speaker 7: those petroleum product exports. And of course we know who
Speaker 7: is most dependent on those petroleum product exports. Number one
Speaker 7: exporting in the world petroleum products America seven million barrels
Speaker 7: a day. So not a bad time for US refiners,
Speaker 7: but obviously a point of concern as those petroleum fuels
Speaker 7: that are being exported also impact domestic prices for gasoline
Speaker 7: at home in America, So lots of question marks as
Speaker 7: countries go on to protect their own market.
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