WEBVTT - Will October Prove To Be 'Uptober' for Crypto?

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Crypto, a daily Bloomberg I Heard podcast,

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<v Speaker 1>and I'm a Donna Hark, a crypto reporter for Bloomberg News.

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<v Speaker 1>In Today for Stacy Marie Ishmael, It's Monday, October. Hey,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm just the Wonderrett from the Bloomberg Crypto podcast team.

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<v Speaker 1>For the last five years, September has been a bad

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<v Speaker 1>month for crypto prices, but October, the month of ghoules,

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<v Speaker 1>gablins and pumpkin spite lattes, has in the past been

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<v Speaker 1>a more hopeful time for bitcoin enthusiasts. Crypto advocates have

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<v Speaker 1>been optimistic that this year will be the same. In

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<v Speaker 1>this episode, guest host and Bloomberg reporter vil Donna Harrick,

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<v Speaker 1>Bitcoin actually has been less volatile by some measures than

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<v Speaker 1>stocks have been. Just the moves in the stock market

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<v Speaker 1>have been crazy. Keeping me up is joined by Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>reporter Hannah Miller. A lot of the sell off happened

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<v Speaker 1>earlier this year is part of why you know October

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<v Speaker 1>could be maybe a decent month for crypto to better

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<v Speaker 1>understand the dynamics at play during the not so spooky

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<v Speaker 1>month of October. Oh you look good, O'm my gosh,

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<v Speaker 1>she looks you look good. Thank you Bush. Okay, right

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<v Speaker 1>off the bat, I'd love to start with a very

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<v Speaker 1>bad joke, which is that October is a scary month. Right,

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<v Speaker 1>we have Halloween, we have ghouls and goblins and whatever else,

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<v Speaker 1>But actually it tends to be a not so scary

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<v Speaker 1>time for bitcoin, and I'm hoping that you can out

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<v Speaker 1>for us why that might be. Yeah. Well, historically October

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<v Speaker 1>has been called October in crypto because we've seen in

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<v Speaker 1>the past that bitcoin and ethereum have actually performed pretty

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<v Speaker 1>well and have had price increases. I think investors are

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<v Speaker 1>kind of waiting to see if that'll be the case

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<v Speaker 1>with this October, despite us being in the middle of

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<v Speaker 1>a cold crypto winter. I love the meme October, and

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<v Speaker 1>I remember writing about it the last couple of years,

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<v Speaker 1>and I'm so happy that you brought it up. But

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<v Speaker 1>just to take a big step back, so we've had

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<v Speaker 1>this really big down draft this year. Both August and

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<v Speaker 1>September were very bad months for cryptocurrencies, and I'm hoping

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<v Speaker 1>you can just lay out the foundation for us for

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<v Speaker 1>what it is exactly that's been happening in crypto markets

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<v Speaker 1>that's been pushing prices lower. Yeah, there's been a lot

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<v Speaker 1>going on this past year. We saw really the market

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<v Speaker 1>take a sharp downturn in the spring after big players

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<v Speaker 1>lapsed within the industry. So I'm thinking, you know, disgraced

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<v Speaker 1>crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital. I'm talking about Celsius

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<v Speaker 1>and Voyager, which are both crypto lending platforms that have

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<v Speaker 1>had to file for bankruptcy. And it's really just brought

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<v Speaker 1>prices down enormously. Oh and not to mention the whole

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<v Speaker 1>collapse of the terra ecosystem. You can forget it, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>Oh yeah, I can't forget that. So really all of

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<v Speaker 1>these things have helped tank crypto prices. And then the

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<v Speaker 1>other big one also being the Fed and everything that's

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<v Speaker 1>been happening with interest rates and how it's impacting. Is

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<v Speaker 1>the Fed going to change its rate path because the

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<v Speaker 1>markets are nervous inflation? Inflation, inflation, It's fair to say

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<v Speaker 1>inflation dominated the discussion at the last FED meeting. The

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<v Speaker 1>Fed has been raising rates that is spooking investors when

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<v Speaker 1>it comes to risky assets like crypto like stocks. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>I think we're waiting to see whether more rate raises

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<v Speaker 1>are on the horizon. Did you mean to make a

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<v Speaker 1>Halloween joke when you said spooky? I did. Thank you

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<v Speaker 1>for touching that. So when you're talking to people, because

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<v Speaker 1>basically our jobs are talking to people figuring out what's

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<v Speaker 1>going on with markets, what's going on with the industry,

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<v Speaker 1>what are they telling you about the potential for crypto

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<v Speaker 1>prices to recover anytime soon. Yeah, so a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>the investors I speak with are really you know, buckling

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<v Speaker 1>up for the long haul. They do believe this crypto

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<v Speaker 1>winter is going to be a bit of a long one,

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<v Speaker 1>but they do believe that prices will eventually come up.

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<v Speaker 1>These are investors who've poured a lot of money not

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<v Speaker 1>only into cryptocurrencies and digital assets, but have also backed

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<v Speaker 1>major startups in the industry. So they're really pinning their

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<v Speaker 1>hopes on the fact that crypto prices will eventually rise

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<v Speaker 1>once again. And you know, these are true believers. These

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<v Speaker 1>are people who see value and importance in digital currencies

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<v Speaker 1>and how they can change how we interact with money

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<v Speaker 1>and you know, do transactions with each other. So those

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<v Speaker 1>are some of the narratives that we had been hearing

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<v Speaker 1>about crypto, where you hear the bitcoin is an inflation hedge,

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<v Speaker 1>for instance, or maybe a place to park your money

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<v Speaker 1>for turbulent times. I remember writing those stories a couple

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<v Speaker 1>of years ago, and those narratives really haven't been playing

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<v Speaker 1>out recently, right, Yeah, we I think we've seen really

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<v Speaker 1>a decorrelation when it comes to rising inflation and demand

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<v Speaker 1>for bitcoin. You know, the comparison of bitcoin too. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>digital gold has been so dominant over the past few years.

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<v Speaker 1>But really when inflation has become more rampant in the

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<v Speaker 1>past year or so, that hasn't caused bitcoin prices to spike.

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<v Speaker 1>And just to go back to what you were just

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<v Speaker 1>saying about the sort of hopefulness of the proponents who

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<v Speaker 1>are really sort of waiting and seeing what prices might

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<v Speaker 1>do going forward, and they're hoping that things have recovered

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<v Speaker 1>to where they were before and even above that. But

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<v Speaker 1>I'm just wondering about you know, the last couple of years,

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<v Speaker 1>I remember writing about these huge price targets that people

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<v Speaker 1>had for bitcoin, different strategists on wall streets also saying

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<v Speaker 1>it could reach a hundred thousand or two hundred fifty

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<v Speaker 1>thousand dollars per coin, and we're not seeing as much

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<v Speaker 1>of that right now either, right, So what has sentiment

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<v Speaker 1>been like, Yeah, I think people have had a reality check.

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<v Speaker 1>You know that there are still a lot of unresolved

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<v Speaker 1>issues with crypto. I mean we can see that with

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<v Speaker 1>what happened with Tera Celsius Voyager three A C. There's

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<v Speaker 1>also just the looming specter of regulation. There's a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of uncertainty that's happening here, and I think investors are

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<v Speaker 1>getting more realistic about how this space is growing. But

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<v Speaker 1>that also means greater regulatory scrutiny, that there are going

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<v Speaker 1>to be actions taken to rain the space in We

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<v Speaker 1>started out talking about October and it potentially being a

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<v Speaker 1>much better month than the last couple of months. But

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<v Speaker 1>if we are looking ahead or even through the remainder

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<v Speaker 1>of the year, is there something that people you speak

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<v Speaker 1>with are telling you about a potential catalyst for prices

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<v Speaker 1>to actually start to stabilize and rally. Yeah. I think

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<v Speaker 1>more institutional adoption will help things. I think like a

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<v Speaker 1>big partnership between a major tech or financial company and

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<v Speaker 1>a major crypto company could help things along. And you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we are expecting clearer regulations and I think once more

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<v Speaker 1>clarity comes out around that, that will help things stabilize.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, people will know what they're dealing with, what

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<v Speaker 1>companies are going to be dealing with on the horizon.

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<v Speaker 1>Is that something that we can expect to see more

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<v Speaker 1>of in the coming months even I think so yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean I think every day, you know, we see

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<v Speaker 1>some sort of action by the SEC or the CFTC

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<v Speaker 1>that gives us a pretty clear idea that they're wanting

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<v Speaker 1>to take control of the space and you know, flush

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<v Speaker 1>out bad actors. And I think some people within the

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<v Speaker 1>crypto industry welcome that, you know, they see this crypto

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<v Speaker 1>winter as a clean out that really the truly committed,

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<v Speaker 1>truly functional platforms are going to stay in and that

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<v Speaker 1>bad actors or you know, more fragile platforms are just

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<v Speaker 1>going to be flushed out. Up next, more with Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>reporter Hannah Miller on how bitcoin prices are faring this October.

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<v Speaker 1>We'll be right back. So, speaking of the truly committed,

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<v Speaker 1>we have a word for that in crypto. It's hoddlers, right,

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<v Speaker 1>people who are holding on for dear life. But I've

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<v Speaker 1>been reading a lot of notes recently that's basically say

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<v Speaker 1>these long term holders or hoddlers have been sitting on

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<v Speaker 1>their coins potentially waiting for the crypto winter to pass,

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<v Speaker 1>I suppose, or for things to even get a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit worse before they get better. And then at the

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<v Speaker 1>same time, the retail investor that had been involved over

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<v Speaker 1>the last couple of years during the pandemic has largely

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<v Speaker 1>gone missing. And I'm wondering if you can talk about this,

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<v Speaker 1>this trend of retail leaving the space and how much

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<v Speaker 1>actually maybe we need the retail investor to be coming

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<v Speaker 1>back in. Yeah. No, retailers are a bit frightened, you

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<v Speaker 1>know what's happening here. They're you know, pulling out. We

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<v Speaker 1>saw a really big sell off in the beginning of

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<v Speaker 1>the year, so there's hope that things will get better

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<v Speaker 1>and stabilize. But yeah, no, I do think that this

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<v Speaker 1>industry needs retail investors in order to get more mainstream

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<v Speaker 1>adoption and fulfill what many think is, you know, it's destiny,

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<v Speaker 1>which is that crypto is going to be, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>an incredible form of money, that it's going to give

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<v Speaker 1>people more financial freedom, and that it's going to be

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<v Speaker 1>an easier way to conduct transactions. Like Yeah, retail investors, Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>it's a huge question of how they're going to be

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<v Speaker 1>lowered back in and it's been very interesting. I've been

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<v Speaker 1>you know, looking at what projects are gaining funding, what

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<v Speaker 1>what's being invested in. And NFT gaming startups are like

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<v Speaker 1>a huge draw for for VC firms. Yeah, they see,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, n f T gaming is a way to

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<v Speaker 1>kind of bring your average consumer back into crypto. Everyone

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<v Speaker 1>loves virtual gaming. You know, it's a fun, easy thing.

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<v Speaker 1>It's a clear end product, unlike some complicated decentralized finance

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<v Speaker 1>platform the mechanics of which usterers might be leery of.

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<v Speaker 1>It's interesting to see what's still you know, staying resilient

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<v Speaker 1>during this time. Can you actually talk a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>more about that, because even I can't picture what it

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<v Speaker 1>looks like. It's a n f T gaming platform, what

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<v Speaker 1>specifically does that mean? Yeah, so uh this kind of

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<v Speaker 1>bleeds into the metaverse of course, such a buzzword um

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<v Speaker 1>over the past year. But yeah, I know, like a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of startups out there are building virtual worlds. Some

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<v Speaker 1>of them are in blockchain, some of them aren't. Some

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<v Speaker 1>of them just incorporate blockchain elements like non funcible tokens.

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<v Speaker 1>But yeah, these are just like really exciting projects that

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<v Speaker 1>are happening here. And you know, there have been other

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<v Speaker 1>games in the past. I'm thinking of Acxie Infinity, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>which used n f T s, but that was definitely

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<v Speaker 1>a more decentralized, finance focused game. In my opinion, a

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<v Speaker 1>huge part of it was like making money. I think

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<v Speaker 1>some of these new games that are being built are

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<v Speaker 1>more focused on a play and earn model, So it's

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<v Speaker 1>like making money may not be the main objective. It

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<v Speaker 1>might be part of it. You can do a free

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<v Speaker 1>to play option. Yeah, people are excited about what these

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<v Speaker 1>virtual worlds are going to look like, and also the

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<v Speaker 1>advertising opportunities that could be present. You know, if you're

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<v Speaker 1>in a digital world, you might see digital ads around you,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think that's part of why investors are still

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<v Speaker 1>interested in n f T gaming deals. So this is

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<v Speaker 1>maybe one example of something that might help draw the

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<v Speaker 1>average investor, the retail investor, back into the space. Do

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<v Speaker 1>you think that prices need to start recovering first before

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<v Speaker 1>the average investor steps back in, or is it that

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<v Speaker 1>wants the retail cohort actually wades back into the space

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<v Speaker 1>that that actually will help propel prices higher. The chicken

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<v Speaker 1>or the egg, Oh yeah, that's that's that's a really

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<v Speaker 1>good question. It's a tough question, but yeah, I know,

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<v Speaker 1>I inc definitely retail investors need to come back in

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<v Speaker 1>to help boost prices. And something like you know a

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<v Speaker 1>game or you know, a new offering from a tech

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<v Speaker 1>company that uses crypto things like that that it's like

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<v Speaker 1>sort of a blend between a mainstream company and a

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<v Speaker 1>crypto native company. I think something like that could help

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<v Speaker 1>uh LAW investors back in, And I do think retail

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<v Speaker 1>investors are needed to boost prices. We were talking about

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<v Speaker 1>October and how potentially it can be a solid month

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<v Speaker 1>or a better month than the last couple that we've

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<v Speaker 1>had over the summer, and something funny has actually happened

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<v Speaker 1>in the first half of October four bitcoin. So typically

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<v Speaker 1>bitcoin and other other cryptocurrencies tend to be much more volatile.

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<v Speaker 1>They swing just to a greater extent than stocks do,

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<v Speaker 1>for instance, or many other asset classes. And bitcoin actually

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<v Speaker 1>has been less volatile by some measures then, and stocks

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<v Speaker 1>have been just the moves in the stock market have

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<v Speaker 1>been crazy, keeping me up late at night. But I'm

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<v Speaker 1>wondering how this can be. Can you explain this to us, like,

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<v Speaker 1>what is going on? Is it maybe the case that

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<v Speaker 1>we just saw so much of the selling already happened

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<v Speaker 1>in the first half of the year, and potentially does

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<v Speaker 1>that mean that the the end of the year could

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<v Speaker 1>be a bit better. I think what you said, like

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<v Speaker 1>that a lot of the sell off happened earlier this

0:14:25.680 --> 0:14:29.000
<v Speaker 1>year is part of why you know October could be

0:14:29.360 --> 0:14:37.920
<v Speaker 1>maybe a decent month for crypto. We still see stock struggling,

0:14:37.920 --> 0:14:41.080
<v Speaker 1>we still see SMP five hundred struggling, we still see

0:14:41.120 --> 0:14:44.800
<v Speaker 1>tech companies having a difficult time during this month. But

0:14:45.440 --> 0:14:47.360
<v Speaker 1>I do think there's hope that that won't be the

0:14:47.440 --> 0:14:52.240
<v Speaker 1>case for bitcoin. Also fun fact, Stoshi Nakamoto, the creator

0:14:52.520 --> 0:14:56.840
<v Speaker 1>of bitcoin, who uses a pseudonym, published the Bitcoin White

0:14:56.840 --> 0:15:01.920
<v Speaker 1>Paper on October one, thousand and eight, Halloween. So I

0:15:01.960 --> 0:15:05.920
<v Speaker 1>think some diehards within this industry, some of the major hoddlers,

0:15:06.320 --> 0:15:09.600
<v Speaker 1>you know, they look to October as is an awesome

0:15:09.640 --> 0:15:14.200
<v Speaker 1>time and a great anniversary for the world's largest cryptocurrency

0:15:14.240 --> 0:15:16.440
<v Speaker 1>by market cap. What are you going to be doing

0:15:16.640 --> 0:15:21.160
<v Speaker 1>to celebrate bitquin's birthday? My birthday is actually very close

0:15:21.160 --> 0:15:25.400
<v Speaker 1>to Bitpoin's birthday. Happy birthday, thank you. So yeah, I

0:15:25.440 --> 0:15:28.320
<v Speaker 1>think I'm going to be traveling during that time and

0:15:28.360 --> 0:15:35.400
<v Speaker 1>throwing a joint party, I hope. Yeah, yeah, we're best friends. Well, Hannah,

0:15:35.400 --> 0:15:38.440
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much for joining us. All right, thank you.

0:15:40.200 --> 0:15:42.600
<v Speaker 1>You can find more of Hannah Miller's reporting on the

0:15:42.640 --> 0:15:46.280
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Terminal, on Bloomberg dot com and on Twitter. She's

0:15:46.560 --> 0:15:54.560
<v Speaker 1>at h G. Miller. On the next episode of Bloomberg Crypto,

0:15:54.920 --> 0:15:56.760
<v Speaker 1>we're going to get a behind the scenes look at

0:15:56.760 --> 0:15:59.880
<v Speaker 1>a very special project from Bloomberg business Week, who are

0:16:00.000 --> 0:16:04.800
<v Speaker 1>publishing an entire issue dedicated to one question, what is Crypto?

0:16:07.760 --> 0:16:10.880
<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Crypto, a daily podcast from Bloomberg and

0:16:10.920 --> 0:16:13.880
<v Speaker 1>I Heart Radio. For more shows from I Heart Radio,

0:16:14.120 --> 0:16:17.240
<v Speaker 1>visit the I Heart Radio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever

0:16:17.320 --> 0:16:20.840
<v Speaker 1>you get your podcasts. Send us your comments, questions, or

0:16:20.840 --> 0:16:23.880
<v Speaker 1>suggestions for the show to Crypto at Bloomberg dot net

0:16:24.440 --> 0:16:28.880
<v Speaker 1>or find us on Twitter. We're at Crypto. The supervising

0:16:28.920 --> 0:16:32.720
<v Speaker 1>producer of Bloomberg Crypto is Vicky Vergolina. Our senior producer

0:16:32.800 --> 0:16:37.080
<v Speaker 1>is Janet Babin. Our producer is Sharon Barriro. Associate producer

0:16:37.200 --> 0:16:41.360
<v Speaker 1>is Thy Butler. Desta wonder At is our engineer. Original

0:16:41.440 --> 0:16:45.920
<v Speaker 1>music by Leo Sidron. I'm Stacy Marie Schmal We'll be

0:16:45.920 --> 0:17:00.200
<v Speaker 1>back tomorrow,