WEBVTT - Introducing: The Bloomberg Daybreak Podcast

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<v Speaker 1>This is Tom Keane introducing you to the Bloomberg Daybreak podcast.

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<v Speaker 1>Every day, Nathan Hager, Karen Moscow, and Michael Barr bring

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<v Speaker 1>you a roundup of the top stories. It's all on

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<v Speaker 1>the Daybreak podcast feed by six am each morning, and today,

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<v Speaker 1>for our Bloomberg Surveillance audience, we bring you a sample

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<v Speaker 1>of the show.

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<v Speaker 2>Good morning, I'm Amy Morris and I'm Karen Moscow. Here

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<v Speaker 2>are the stories we're following today.

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<v Speaker 3>We begin with oil rising to start the new year,

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<v Speaker 3>Iran sending a warship to the Red Sea in an

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<v Speaker 3>escalation of tensions in the region. The show of force

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<v Speaker 3>comes after the US Navy destroyed three Hoothy boats which

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<v Speaker 3>we're attempting to board a container on New Year's Day.

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<v Speaker 3>Elizabeth Kendall is a Middle East specialist from Cambridge University

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<v Speaker 3>and says the two are clearly interlinked.

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<v Speaker 4>Aaron is puppeteering Hamas, the Hoosy's and other movements like

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<v Speaker 4>Hisbula in the Middle East, and the Housy slogan indeed

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<v Speaker 4>includes the words death to Israel and a curss on

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<v Speaker 4>the Jews, so it's very much aligned with Hamas's more

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<v Speaker 4>militant and extreme war.

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<v Speaker 3>Win Cambridge University's Elizabeth Kendall checking oil right now. Niemex

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<v Speaker 3>crude oil up more than two percent or a dollar

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<v Speaker 3>forty nine, now trading at seventy three dollars and thirteen

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<v Speaker 3>cents a barrel.

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<v Speaker 2>Care Well, Amy oil isn't the only thing on the

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<v Speaker 2>move this morning. We're also seeing Bitcoin on the rise,

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<v Speaker 2>following through on last year's massive rally, and we get

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<v Speaker 2>more from Bloomberg Markets reporter Joe Easton.

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<v Speaker 5>It is up another four percent at the moment, at

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<v Speaker 5>the highest level since April sixth, above forty five thousand

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<v Speaker 5>dollars for the first time in two years. This is

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<v Speaker 5>due to the expectation of the direct investment from this ETF,

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<v Speaker 5>so that is boosting sentiment and a lot of positivity.

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<v Speaker 5>People looking for more technical levels for that one to

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<v Speaker 5>keep going higher.

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<v Speaker 2>And Bloomberg's Joe Easton says Bitcoin has risen over twenty

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<v Speaker 2>percent since has started December, as that January tenth deadline

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<v Speaker 2>for the Security Exchange Commission to give its blessing for

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<v Speaker 2>a spot Bitcoin ETF draws closer. Checking bitcoin right now,

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<v Speaker 2>it's at forty five seven hundred dollars.

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<v Speaker 3>Over in Europe, stocks are also hired to kick off

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<v Speaker 3>the new trading year. Let's get the latest from Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 3>Daybreak Europe banker Stephen Carrol.

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<v Speaker 6>Stephen, good morning, Amy and Karen. The tensions in the

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<v Speaker 6>Red Sea are playing into the market narrative in Europe today.

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<v Speaker 6>Shares and the shipping giant Maersk have risen after it

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<v Speaker 6>stopped using that key trade route for forty eight hours

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<v Speaker 6>following the weekend attack on one of its vessels. Higher

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<v Speaker 6>oil prices are also helping to lift oil majors, making

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<v Speaker 6>energy one of the best performing sectors on the Stock

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<v Speaker 6>six hundred. More broadly, it's the Spanish and Italian markets

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<v Speaker 6>which are out performing, boosted by a rise in bank

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<v Speaker 6>shares in London. Stephen Carroll Bloomberg Radio, All.

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<v Speaker 2>Right, Stephen, thank you all. Back here in the US,

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<v Speaker 2>Wall Street returns to a holiday shortened week to kick

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<v Speaker 2>off the new trading year, and we get a look

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<v Speaker 2>ahead from Bloomberg Shirley Pillett.

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<v Speaker 7>The S and P five hundred index sits within striking

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<v Speaker 7>distance of its first in two two years, but a

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<v Speaker 7>key challenge for markets is the outlook for the economy

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<v Speaker 7>and corporate earnings. Michael Binger is the president of Gradient Investments.

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<v Speaker 8>The economy I think is very resilient. Jobs are driving

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<v Speaker 8>that corporate profits are supposed to grow about ten eleven percent.

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<v Speaker 8>And valuations, I mean they're not really cheap, but they're

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<v Speaker 8>not super expensive either in the markets right now.

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<v Speaker 7>Among this week's earnings reports Constellation Brands and Walgreens Boots

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<v Speaker 7>Alliance in New York. Charlie Pellett Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 3>Thank you, Charlie. In twenty twenty three, some of Wall

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<v Speaker 3>Street's biggest names got it wrong with their predictions for

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<v Speaker 3>how markets would perform. So will they fare better? In

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<v Speaker 3>twenty twenty four, Bloomberg has compiled more than six hundred

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<v Speaker 3>and fifty calls from strategists in Today's Big Take. Sam

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<v Speaker 3>Potter is a senior Markets editor for Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 9>Most strategists on Wall Street see the interest rate tykes

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<v Speaker 9>of the past eighteen months to two years finally start

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<v Speaker 9>to bite economies generally around the world, stock slow, and

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<v Speaker 9>that will kind of pre a central bank pivot roundabout

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<v Speaker 9>mik Ye.

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<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg Senior Markets editor Sam Potter adds that strategists see

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<v Speaker 3>the main risks to the markets inflation and the US election.

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<v Speaker 2>Well In Corporate News Amy China's BYD may have just

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<v Speaker 2>overtaken Tesla as the world leader in EV sales. It's

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<v Speaker 2>still more than five hundred and twenty six thousand fully

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<v Speaker 2>electric vehicles in the fourth quarter. Bloomberg's John lewis more

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<v Speaker 2>from Beijing.

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<v Speaker 10>When Byda Tesla, it'll do two things. I think that's

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<v Speaker 10>going to put this company into the consciousness of people

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<v Speaker 10>around the world in a way that that company has

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<v Speaker 10>not had ever before. The number two thing it does

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<v Speaker 10>is it really underscores how dominant a position China not

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<v Speaker 10>only as a market, but as a country with lots

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<v Speaker 10>of companies producing electric vehicles, how dominant a position China

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<v Speaker 10>has in that industry now.

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<v Speaker 2>And Bloombergs John Luisa's Tesla is estimated to have delivered

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<v Speaker 2>over four hundred and eighty three thousand in the fourth

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<v Speaker 2>quarter alone.

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<v Speaker 3>Speaking of China, resident Xi Jinping has pledged to strengthen

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<v Speaker 3>his country's economic recovery after a tough year. Bloomberg's Jenny

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<v Speaker 3>Marsh has more from Hong Kong.

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<v Speaker 11>This is Chi Jinping's new Yar's Eve speech, and he

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<v Speaker 11>normally uses it to sort trumpet the achievements his nation's

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<v Speaker 11>major in the year, and I think this speech really

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<v Speaker 11>stood out for how candid he was being about these problems.

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<v Speaker 11>It's the first time he's acknowledged that the struggles that

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<v Speaker 11>twenty twenty three have brought. It also sort of underplayed

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<v Speaker 11>in some ways the problems that are still lying ahead

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<v Speaker 11>in twenty twenty four for the economy, and he didn't

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<v Speaker 11>really have any sort of quick fixes for that.

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<v Speaker 3>Bloomberg Jenny Marsh says China's entering a pivotal period as

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<v Speaker 3>policymakers try to boost growth, stabilize a crisis in the

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<v Speaker 3>property market, and prevent deflation. Beijing is expected to target

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<v Speaker 3>a growth goal of around five percent again in twenty

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<v Speaker 3>twenty four.

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<v Speaker 2>Meanwhile, Amy the Biden administration has won another battle and

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<v Speaker 2>its effort to try and slow Shina from building its

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<v Speaker 2>own semiconductor industry. We get more with a Bloomberg sed.

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<v Speaker 12>Baxter ASML Holding is council shipments of some of its

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<v Speaker 12>machines to China at the Biden request. This week's before

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<v Speaker 12>the export bands on the high end chip making came

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<v Speaker 12>into effect, the Dutch manufacturer had licenses to ship three

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<v Speaker 12>top of the line deep ultraviolet lithography machines, but before

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<v Speaker 12>the deadline, it decided to cancel the orders. The US

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<v Speaker 12>and allies have been trying to block access to the technology.

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<v Speaker 12>Ed Baxter, Bloomberg Radio, Thank.

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<v Speaker 3>You care in time now for a look at some

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<v Speaker 3>of the other stories making news in New York and

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<v Speaker 3>around the world. And for that we're joined by Bloomberg's

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<v Speaker 3>Michael bar Good morning, Michael.

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<v Speaker 13>Good morning Amy. The death toll has now climbed to

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<v Speaker 13>forty eight after a magnitude seven point six earthquakes struck Japan.

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<v Speaker 13>The quake hit off the Noto Peninsula on Japan's northwest coast.

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<v Speaker 13>This man at Tokyo resident and US national, was visiting

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<v Speaker 13>to Yama when the quake hit.

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<v Speaker 14>First. I just started very slowly, and everybody kind of

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<v Speaker 14>left it off, you know, they thought, ah, this is

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<v Speaker 14>this is kind of humorous, you know, on New Year's Day.

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<v Speaker 14>And then again it is just a violid shape.

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<v Speaker 13>The tremor was followed by hundreds of aftershocks. A plane

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<v Speaker 13>is on fire right now on the runway of Tokyo's

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<v Speaker 13>Hanada Airport. Authority say a large burst of fire erupted

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<v Speaker 13>from the side of a japan Airlines plane as a

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<v Speaker 13>taxied on the runway. All of the three hundred and

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<v Speaker 13>seventy nine passengers and crew were said to be safely evacuated.

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<v Speaker 13>Israel Supreme Court struck down a key component of Prime

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<v Speaker 13>Minister Benjamin et Yahoo's contentious judicious overhaul before the October

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<v Speaker 13>seventh of mass attack into southern Israel. The planned overhaul

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<v Speaker 13>sparked months of mass protests threatened to trigger a constitutional

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<v Speaker 13>crisis between the judicial and legislative branches of government. The

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<v Speaker 13>FBI's Joint Terrorism Task Force is assisting police in Rochester,

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<v Speaker 13>New York, to investigate a car crash that killed two

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<v Speaker 13>people and injured five others outside of performing Arts theater

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<v Speaker 13>in the early hours of New Year's Day. The crash

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<v Speaker 13>happened in front of the Kodak Center. It became a

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<v Speaker 13>large scene due to a fire which had erupted as

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<v Speaker 13>a result of the crash, and police also say several

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<v Speaker 13>gas cans were found in and around the striking vehicle.

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<v Speaker 13>Rochester Mayor Maalik Evans.

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<v Speaker 15>I want to offer my condolences to those families, those

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<v Speaker 15>individuals that lost their lives, and I asked the community

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<v Speaker 15>to pay prey not only for those that have lost

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<v Speaker 15>their lives, but also those that are injured.

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<v Speaker 13>Terrorism investigators are trying to determine if this was just

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<v Speaker 13>a car accident or something far worse. New York City's

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<v Speaker 13>effort to stop migrant buses has resulted in the buses

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<v Speaker 13>arriving instead in neighboring New Jersey. Over the weekend, buses

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<v Speaker 13>from Texas and Louisiana began dropping off asylum seekers at

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<v Speaker 13>several New Jersey transit stations. From there, the asylum seekers

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<v Speaker 13>are believed to have taken trains to New York City. Edison,

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<v Speaker 13>New Jersey, Mayor Sam Joshi says the buses are a

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<v Speaker 13>major risk to health and security.

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<v Speaker 8>The solution for me, as the mayor of Edison, is

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<v Speaker 8>not to punt it off to another mayor.

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<v Speaker 13>Global news twenty four hours a day and whenever you

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<v Speaker 13>want it with Bloomberg News Now. I'm Michael Barr, and

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<v Speaker 13>this is Bloomberg Jamie.

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<v Speaker 3>All right, Thank you, Michael, and we do bring you

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<v Speaker 3>news throughout the day here on Bloomberg Radio. And now

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<v Speaker 3>you can get the news on demand whenever you want it.

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<v Speaker 3>Subscribe to Bloomberg News Now to get the latest headlines

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<v Speaker 3>at the click of a button. Get informed on your schedule.

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<v Speaker 3>You can listen and subscribe to Bloomberg News Now on

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<v Speaker 3>the Bloomberg Business app, Bloomberg dot com, plus Apple, Spotify,

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<v Speaker 3>and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Time Now with

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<v Speaker 3>the Sports Report, brought to you by Tri State Audi.

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<v Speaker 3>For that, we bring in John stash Hour.

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<v Speaker 16>Thanks Amy Kevil of terrific gains of the college football

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<v Speaker 16>playoff Semifinals overtime at the Rose Ball after Michigan tie

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<v Speaker 16>to Alabama the late touchdown in OT Wolverines had the

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<v Speaker 16>ball first.

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<v Speaker 7>The shotgun Laul McGain. This tiny palsison, he's.

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<v Speaker 5>Got the first out of more cons by the five

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<v Speaker 5>porl spix's way across.

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<v Speaker 3>The goal line, touch down Michigan seven.

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<v Speaker 16>Touchdown run ESPN the call Michigan had stop babacb Jalen

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<v Speaker 16>Milroe on a fourth down and won twenty seven to

0:10:15.280 --> 0:10:18.000
<v Speaker 16>twenty JJ McCarthy through three TD passes. And then came

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<v Speaker 16>the Sugar Bowl, where Washington never trailed. At a thirteen

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<v Speaker 16>point lead midway through the fourth quartern, Texas rallied had

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<v Speaker 16>four chances to take the lead the final fifteen seconds,

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<v Speaker 16>but ended the game with three incompletions on the Husky

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<v Speaker 16>survive thirty seven thirty one. Their QB, Michael Pennix Junior

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<v Speaker 16>threw for four hundred and thirty yards. Championship game next

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<v Speaker 16>Monday in Houston. Both Michigan and Washington will go in

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<v Speaker 16>fourteen and oh if Yesta bawl all Oregon forty five

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<v Speaker 16>to six over a limitary vote next through five TD

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<v Speaker 16>passes sitters pull in Orlando, all Tennessee thirty five nothing

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<v Speaker 16>over Iowa LSU won to rely a quest in Tampa

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<v Speaker 16>thirty five to thirty one over Wisconsin. Nick's happy to

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<v Speaker 16>start the new year at the Garden after an O

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<v Speaker 16>one three road trip. They beat Minnesota won twelve one

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<v Speaker 16>oh six. Julius Randall port in third nine points. Og

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<v Speaker 16>On Andobi made his next debut. He played thirty five

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<v Speaker 16>minutes before foulding out. He scored seventeen. In Toronto.

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<v Speaker 4>R J.

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<v Speaker 16>Barrett and Emmanuel quickly debuted for their new team. Scored

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<v Speaker 16>nineteen and fourteen points in a Raptors win over Cleveland

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<v Speaker 16>Outdoor Hockey in Seattle, crowd of forty seven thousand to

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<v Speaker 16>see the Kraken shout out Vegas three nothing. John stash

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<v Speaker 16>Away with Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 17>Sports from coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco,

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<v Speaker 17>Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on syriasxam, the Bloomberg Business

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<v Speaker 17>app in Bloomberg dot com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

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<v Speaker 12>Good morning.

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<v Speaker 3>I'm Amy Morris, and we are entering the first week

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<v Speaker 3>of trading for twenty twenty four. As we do, most

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<v Speaker 3>investment outlooks from major banks and advisors are predicting the

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<v Speaker 3>same middle of the road scenario for the coming year,

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<v Speaker 3>an economic slowdown, a central bank pivot, and a late

0:11:55.600 --> 0:11:59.480
<v Speaker 3>year rebound. We're joined by Dennis Gartman, University of Akron

0:11:59.480 --> 0:12:02.280
<v Speaker 3>and Dowmic chairman and former publisher of the Gartment Letter

0:12:02.640 --> 0:12:04.160
<v Speaker 3>to sort of set us straight on what we can

0:12:04.200 --> 0:12:06.480
<v Speaker 3>expect for the coming year. Now and Dennis, the dollar

0:12:06.559 --> 0:12:09.240
<v Speaker 3>closed out its worst year since twenty twenty, the S

0:12:09.280 --> 0:12:12.200
<v Speaker 3>and P five hundred rows nine straight weeks. Are these

0:12:12.360 --> 0:12:14.760
<v Speaker 3>trends bound to continue?

0:12:15.360 --> 0:12:18.560
<v Speaker 18>I have my doubts as to the latter trend will continue.

0:12:18.840 --> 0:12:22.760
<v Speaker 18>I think stocks are extremely overbought. Market has risen on

0:12:22.800 --> 0:12:26.520
<v Speaker 18>an anticipation of three four, five six cuts in the

0:12:26.520 --> 0:12:29.320
<v Speaker 18>overnight fed funds rate by the Federal Reserve Bank. I

0:12:29.360 --> 0:12:31.720
<v Speaker 18>have my doubts as to whether that will occur. I

0:12:31.760 --> 0:12:33.960
<v Speaker 18>think that the Fed is done raising the overnight FED

0:12:33.960 --> 0:12:36.720
<v Speaker 18>funds rate. Of that, there's no doubt. But whether they're

0:12:36.720 --> 0:12:39.080
<v Speaker 18>going to cut five or six times, I think is

0:12:39.200 --> 0:12:41.760
<v Speaker 18>very doubtful. I think we have to anticipate the fact

0:12:41.760 --> 0:12:44.960
<v Speaker 18>that the Federal will delay any change in the overnight

0:12:45.000 --> 0:12:48.240
<v Speaker 18>FED funds rate lower to later this year. There's too

0:12:48.320 --> 0:12:50.880
<v Speaker 18>much anticipation that the FEDERALI begin cutting in the overnight

0:12:50.920 --> 0:12:52.959
<v Speaker 18>funds rate by March. I think it'll be late in

0:12:53.000 --> 0:12:56.280
<v Speaker 18>the summer, maybe early into the autumn before it happens,

0:12:56.720 --> 0:12:59.240
<v Speaker 18>But we shall see. Time shall tell. I think stocks, however,

0:12:59.320 --> 0:13:02.920
<v Speaker 18>are aggressive overbought, have been for some while, and it

0:13:02.960 --> 0:13:05.319
<v Speaker 18>seems to me this looks very similar to what happened

0:13:05.320 --> 0:13:07.840
<v Speaker 18>in twenty twenty one twenty twenty two, when we reach

0:13:07.920 --> 0:13:11.080
<v Speaker 18>the higher the market on the opening day of twenty

0:13:11.160 --> 0:13:14.359
<v Speaker 18>twenty one and then ended up having a rather substantive

0:13:14.400 --> 0:13:17.520
<v Speaker 18>decline in prices. So time shall tell. We'll see. But

0:13:17.559 --> 0:13:21.760
<v Speaker 18>too much anticipation of too much easier possibilities on the

0:13:21.760 --> 0:13:23.040
<v Speaker 18>part of the Fed that I don't think are going

0:13:23.120 --> 0:13:23.480
<v Speaker 18>to happen.

0:13:24.080 --> 0:13:26.280
<v Speaker 3>Now we have a Job's report coming out on Friday.

0:13:26.280 --> 0:13:28.320
<v Speaker 3>What are you watching for in that and how that

0:13:28.400 --> 0:13:29.120
<v Speaker 3>might impact it?

0:13:30.240 --> 0:13:35.319
<v Speaker 18>Long ago, I quit anticipating the over the employment rates

0:13:35.400 --> 0:13:38.760
<v Speaker 18>because of the fact that we tend to see such

0:13:38.840 --> 0:13:41.679
<v Speaker 18>huge numbers of revisions from one month to the next.

0:13:41.679 --> 0:13:44.199
<v Speaker 18>But right now the market is anticipating an increase of

0:13:44.200 --> 0:13:45.839
<v Speaker 18>about one hundred and seventy five to one hundred and

0:13:45.840 --> 0:13:48.600
<v Speaker 18>eighty five thousand new jobs. We shall see if that

0:13:48.760 --> 0:13:52.320
<v Speaker 18>if that occurs, but it's one of the most radically

0:13:53.120 --> 0:13:55.720
<v Speaker 18>revised reports of the year. Every every month of the

0:13:55.880 --> 0:13:58.559
<v Speaker 18>revisions are forty to fifty thousand plus or minus. So

0:13:58.960 --> 0:14:00.960
<v Speaker 18>right now the market is inticipating one hundred and seventy

0:14:01.000 --> 0:14:03.000
<v Speaker 18>five to one hundred eighty five thousand times. She'll tell

0:14:03.720 --> 0:14:05.559
<v Speaker 18>Barkley is predicting the softest landing.

0:14:05.679 --> 0:14:09.720
<v Speaker 3>Vanguard JP Morgan expecting a mild recession. But you know

0:14:09.800 --> 0:14:12.480
<v Speaker 3>that's what everybody predicted for twenty twenty three as well.

0:14:12.520 --> 0:14:13.640
<v Speaker 3>What's the difference now.

0:14:15.320 --> 0:14:17.000
<v Speaker 18>I was one of the people that expected to see

0:14:17.000 --> 0:14:19.920
<v Speaker 18>a recession in twenty twenty three, and clearly we have

0:14:20.000 --> 0:14:23.560
<v Speaker 18>not had that. The market is now anticipating the softest,

0:14:23.640 --> 0:14:28.160
<v Speaker 18>the best of all kind of soft landings. Imaginable I

0:14:28.200 --> 0:14:30.080
<v Speaker 18>have my doubts as to whether that will occur, but

0:14:30.760 --> 0:14:33.360
<v Speaker 18>that's what the market anticipates, that's what the stock prices

0:14:33.400 --> 0:14:37.320
<v Speaker 18>have anticipated, and that's what the world generally anticipates. Whether

0:14:37.560 --> 0:14:39.800
<v Speaker 18>whether it happens or not is up for debate. I

0:14:39.840 --> 0:14:43.880
<v Speaker 18>have my doubts, seriously, though. We are overextended to the upside.

0:14:44.080 --> 0:14:46.920
<v Speaker 18>We were long overdue on a recession because of the

0:14:46.920 --> 0:14:49.240
<v Speaker 18>FEDS tightening monetary policy over the course of the past

0:14:49.280 --> 0:14:55.480
<v Speaker 18>several years, and there's always long and reasonable legs between

0:14:55.520 --> 0:15:00.560
<v Speaker 18>the monetary policy and economic activity. I think we'll be

0:15:00.680 --> 0:15:02.400
<v Speaker 18>recessionary before the end of the year, but I don't

0:15:02.440 --> 0:15:04.040
<v Speaker 18>think it'll be a substance of one. I think it'll

0:15:04.080 --> 0:15:06.440
<v Speaker 18>be a very quiet one. Time. However, again, as I've

0:15:06.440 --> 0:15:09.360
<v Speaker 18>said too many times already this morning, time shall tell Yeah.

0:15:09.400 --> 0:15:11.320
<v Speaker 3>I was about to ask you what kind of recession

0:15:11.360 --> 0:15:13.680
<v Speaker 3>you were looking for. You're expecting a softish landing.

0:15:14.080 --> 0:15:16.280
<v Speaker 18>Yeah, yes, I think it'll be a very soft one,

0:15:16.320 --> 0:15:20.080
<v Speaker 18>a very minor one. We've seen these types of recessions before,

0:15:20.120 --> 0:15:22.960
<v Speaker 18>but I think it'll be a very a very quiet

0:15:23.160 --> 0:15:26.840
<v Speaker 18>and not anything like we saw in seventy three seventy four,

0:15:26.920 --> 0:15:28.720
<v Speaker 18>not anything like we saw in eighty one eighty two,

0:15:29.560 --> 0:15:33.200
<v Speaker 18>not anything like we saw nine. But it'll be a

0:15:33.200 --> 0:15:36.120
<v Speaker 18>recession and it'll be a quiet increase in over in

0:15:36.160 --> 0:15:39.920
<v Speaker 18>the unemployment rate to probably four or five percent before

0:15:39.960 --> 0:15:40.480
<v Speaker 18>it's done.

0:15:40.640 --> 0:15:42.600
<v Speaker 3>What do you see with oil and gold in this

0:15:42.640 --> 0:15:43.040
<v Speaker 3>new year?

0:15:44.080 --> 0:15:46.920
<v Speaker 18>Gold is opening up very strongly right now, and I

0:15:46.920 --> 0:15:48.520
<v Speaker 18>think gold wants to go from the lower left to

0:15:48.520 --> 0:15:50.640
<v Speaker 18>the upper right. It's been a bull market for a while,

0:15:51.000 --> 0:15:52.840
<v Speaker 18>and I think gold wants to go higher. Clearly. It's

0:15:52.880 --> 0:15:57.520
<v Speaker 18>heading about twenty one thousand before the before too long.

0:15:57.560 --> 0:15:59.120
<v Speaker 18>I think it goes to twenty two or twenty three

0:15:59.120 --> 0:16:02.480
<v Speaker 18>thousand before the year out. I have been very bearish

0:16:02.560 --> 0:16:05.280
<v Speaker 18>on crude oil for a while because the term structure

0:16:05.280 --> 0:16:09.360
<v Speaker 18>has been overly overtly barished, with the front months leading

0:16:09.400 --> 0:16:12.880
<v Speaker 18>on the downside and failing to gain upon the back

0:16:12.960 --> 0:16:15.360
<v Speaker 18>months when the market when the market rallies. But now

0:16:15.400 --> 0:16:16.880
<v Speaker 18>all of a sudden, we're starting to see the term

0:16:16.880 --> 0:16:20.200
<v Speaker 18>structure beginning to change a little bit, and everybody's watching

0:16:20.200 --> 0:16:22.680
<v Speaker 18>what's happening in the Gulf of Suez. I think that's

0:16:22.680 --> 0:16:24.840
<v Speaker 18>only going to get worse, not better. And for the

0:16:24.880 --> 0:16:28.040
<v Speaker 18>first time in months, I'm actually not bearish of crude oil.

0:16:28.080 --> 0:16:30.120
<v Speaker 18>I'm starting to turn bullish of a time shall tell,

0:16:30.240 --> 0:16:32.200
<v Speaker 18>but this is the first time in months that I've

0:16:32.240 --> 0:16:35.400
<v Speaker 18>actually been have not been barish on the crude oil

0:16:35.440 --> 0:16:37.760
<v Speaker 18>market because of the changing nature of the term structure.

0:16:39.600 --> 0:16:42.880
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