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Speaker 1: This is Tom Keane introducing you to the Bloomberg Daybreak podcast.

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Speaker 1: Every day, Nathan Hager, Karen Moscow, and Michael Barr bring

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Speaker 1: you a roundup of the top stories. It's all on

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Speaker 1: the Daybreak podcast feed by six am each morning, and today,

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Speaker 1: for our Bloomberg Surveillance audience, we bring you a sample

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Speaker 1: of the show.

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Speaker 2: Good morning, I'm Amy Morris and I'm Karen Moscow. Here

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Speaker 2: are the stories we're following today.

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Speaker 3: We begin with oil rising to start the new year,

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Speaker 3: Iran sending a warship to the Red Sea in an

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Speaker 3: escalation of tensions in the region. The show of force

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Speaker 3: comes after the US Navy destroyed three Hoothy boats which

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Speaker 3: we're attempting to board a container on New Year's Day.

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Speaker 3: Elizabeth Kendall is a Middle East specialist from Cambridge University

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Speaker 3: and says the two are clearly interlinked.

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Speaker 4: Aaron is puppeteering Hamas, the Hoosy's and other movements like

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Speaker 4: Hisbula in the Middle East, and the Housy slogan indeed

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Speaker 4: includes the words death to Israel and a curss on

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Speaker 4: the Jews, so it's very much aligned with Hamas's more

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Speaker 4: militant and extreme war.

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Speaker 3: Win Cambridge University's Elizabeth Kendall checking oil right now. Niemex

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Speaker 3: crude oil up more than two percent or a dollar

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Speaker 3: forty nine, now trading at seventy three dollars and thirteen

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Speaker 3: cents a barrel.

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Speaker 2: Care Well, Amy oil isn't the only thing on the

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Speaker 2: move this morning. We're also seeing Bitcoin on the rise,

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Speaker 2: following through on last year's massive rally, and we get

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Speaker 2: more from Bloomberg Markets reporter Joe Easton.

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Speaker 5: It is up another four percent at the moment, at

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Speaker 5: the highest level since April sixth, above forty five thousand

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Speaker 5: dollars for the first time in two years. This is

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Speaker 5: due to the expectation of the direct investment from this ETF,

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Speaker 5: so that is boosting sentiment and a lot of positivity.

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Speaker 5: People looking for more technical levels for that one to

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Speaker 5: keep going higher.

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Speaker 2: And Bloomberg's Joe Easton says Bitcoin has risen over twenty

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Speaker 2: percent since has started December, as that January tenth deadline

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Speaker 2: for the Security Exchange Commission to give its blessing for

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Speaker 2: a spot Bitcoin ETF draws closer. Checking bitcoin right now,

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Speaker 2: it's at forty five seven hundred dollars.

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Speaker 3: Over in Europe, stocks are also hired to kick off

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Speaker 3: the new trading year. Let's get the latest from Bloomberg

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Speaker 3: Daybreak Europe banker Stephen Carrol.

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Speaker 6: Stephen, good morning, Amy and Karen. The tensions in the

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Speaker 6: Red Sea are playing into the market narrative in Europe today.

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Speaker 6: Shares and the shipping giant Maersk have risen after it

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Speaker 6: stopped using that key trade route for forty eight hours

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Speaker 6: following the weekend attack on one of its vessels. Higher

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Speaker 6: oil prices are also helping to lift oil majors, making

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Speaker 6: energy one of the best performing sectors on the Stock

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Speaker 6: six hundred. More broadly, it's the Spanish and Italian markets

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Speaker 6: which are out performing, boosted by a rise in bank

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Speaker 6: shares in London. Stephen Carroll Bloomberg Radio, All.

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Speaker 2: Right, Stephen, thank you all. Back here in the US,

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Speaker 2: Wall Street returns to a holiday shortened week to kick

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Speaker 2: off the new trading year, and we get a look

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Speaker 2: ahead from Bloomberg Shirley Pillett.

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Speaker 7: The S and P five hundred index sits within striking

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Speaker 7: distance of its first in two two years, but a

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Speaker 7: key challenge for markets is the outlook for the economy

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Speaker 7: and corporate earnings. Michael Binger is the president of Gradient Investments.

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Speaker 8: The economy I think is very resilient. Jobs are driving

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Speaker 8: that corporate profits are supposed to grow about ten eleven percent.

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Speaker 8: And valuations, I mean they're not really cheap, but they're

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Speaker 8: not super expensive either in the markets right now.

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Speaker 7: Among this week's earnings reports Constellation Brands and Walgreens Boots

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Speaker 7: Alliance in New York. Charlie Pellett Bloomberg Radio.

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Speaker 3: Thank you, Charlie. In twenty twenty three, some of Wall

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Speaker 3: Street's biggest names got it wrong with their predictions for

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Speaker 3: how markets would perform. So will they fare better? In

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty four, Bloomberg has compiled more than six hundred

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Speaker 3: and fifty calls from strategists in Today's Big Take. Sam

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Speaker 3: Potter is a senior Markets editor for Bloomberg.

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Speaker 9: Most strategists on Wall Street see the interest rate tykes

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Speaker 9: of the past eighteen months to two years finally start

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Speaker 9: to bite economies generally around the world, stock slow, and

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Speaker 9: that will kind of pre a central bank pivot roundabout

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Speaker 9: mik Ye.

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg Senior Markets editor Sam Potter adds that strategists see

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Speaker 3: the main risks to the markets inflation and the US election.

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Speaker 2: Well In Corporate News Amy China's BYD may have just

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Speaker 2: overtaken Tesla as the world leader in EV sales. It's

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Speaker 2: still more than five hundred and twenty six thousand fully

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Speaker 2: electric vehicles in the fourth quarter. Bloomberg's John lewis more

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Speaker 2: from Beijing.

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Speaker 10: When Byda Tesla, it'll do two things. I think that's

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Speaker 10: going to put this company into the consciousness of people

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Speaker 10: around the world in a way that that company has

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Speaker 10: not had ever before. The number two thing it does

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Speaker 10: is it really underscores how dominant a position China not

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Speaker 10: only as a market, but as a country with lots

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Speaker 10: of companies producing electric vehicles, how dominant a position China

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Speaker 10: has in that industry now.

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Speaker 2: And Bloombergs John Luisa's Tesla is estimated to have delivered

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Speaker 2: over four hundred and eighty three thousand in the fourth

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Speaker 2: quarter alone.

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Speaker 3: Speaking of China, resident Xi Jinping has pledged to strengthen

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Speaker 3: his country's economic recovery after a tough year. Bloomberg's Jenny

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Speaker 3: Marsh has more from Hong Kong.

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Speaker 11: This is Chi Jinping's new Yar's Eve speech, and he

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Speaker 11: normally uses it to sort trumpet the achievements his nation's

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Speaker 11: major in the year, and I think this speech really

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Speaker 11: stood out for how candid he was being about these problems.

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Speaker 11: It's the first time he's acknowledged that the struggles that

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Speaker 11: twenty twenty three have brought. It also sort of underplayed

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Speaker 11: in some ways the problems that are still lying ahead

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Speaker 11: in twenty twenty four for the economy, and he didn't

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Speaker 11: really have any sort of quick fixes for that.

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg Jenny Marsh says China's entering a pivotal period as

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Speaker 3: policymakers try to boost growth, stabilize a crisis in the

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Speaker 3: property market, and prevent deflation. Beijing is expected to target

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Speaker 3: a growth goal of around five percent again in twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty four.

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Speaker 2: Meanwhile, Amy the Biden administration has won another battle and

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Speaker 2: its effort to try and slow Shina from building its

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Speaker 2: own semiconductor industry. We get more with a Bloomberg sed.

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Speaker 12: Baxter ASML Holding is council shipments of some of its

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Speaker 12: machines to China at the Biden request. This week's before

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Speaker 12: the export bands on the high end chip making came

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Speaker 12: into effect, the Dutch manufacturer had licenses to ship three

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Speaker 12: top of the line deep ultraviolet lithography machines, but before

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Speaker 12: the deadline, it decided to cancel the orders. The US

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Speaker 12: and allies have been trying to block access to the technology.

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Speaker 12: Ed Baxter, Bloomberg Radio, Thank.

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Speaker 3: You care in time now for a look at some

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Speaker 3: of the other stories making news in New York and

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Speaker 3: around the world. And for that we're joined by Bloomberg's

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Speaker 3: Michael bar Good morning, Michael.

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Speaker 13: Good morning Amy. The death toll has now climbed to

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Speaker 13: forty eight after a magnitude seven point six earthquakes struck Japan.

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Speaker 13: The quake hit off the Noto Peninsula on Japan's northwest coast.

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Speaker 13: This man at Tokyo resident and US national, was visiting

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Speaker 13: to Yama when the quake hit.

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Speaker 14: First. I just started very slowly, and everybody kind of

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Speaker 14: left it off, you know, they thought, ah, this is

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Speaker 14: this is kind of humorous, you know, on New Year's Day.

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Speaker 14: And then again it is just a violid shape.

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Speaker 13: The tremor was followed by hundreds of aftershocks. A plane

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Speaker 13: is on fire right now on the runway of Tokyo's

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Speaker 13: Hanada Airport. Authority say a large burst of fire erupted

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Speaker 13: from the side of a japan Airlines plane as a

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Speaker 13: taxied on the runway. All of the three hundred and

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Speaker 13: seventy nine passengers and crew were said to be safely evacuated.

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Speaker 13: Israel Supreme Court struck down a key component of Prime

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Speaker 13: Minister Benjamin et Yahoo's contentious judicious overhaul before the October

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Speaker 13: seventh of mass attack into southern Israel. The planned overhaul

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Speaker 13: sparked months of mass protests threatened to trigger a constitutional

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Speaker 13: crisis between the judicial and legislative branches of government. The

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Speaker 13: FBI's Joint Terrorism Task Force is assisting police in Rochester,

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Speaker 13: New York, to investigate a car crash that killed two

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Speaker 13: people and injured five others outside of performing Arts theater

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Speaker 13: in the early hours of New Year's Day. The crash

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Speaker 13: happened in front of the Kodak Center. It became a

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Speaker 13: large scene due to a fire which had erupted as

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Speaker 13: a result of the crash, and police also say several

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Speaker 13: gas cans were found in and around the striking vehicle.

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Speaker 13: Rochester Mayor Maalik Evans.

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Speaker 15: I want to offer my condolences to those families, those

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Speaker 15: individuals that lost their lives, and I asked the community

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Speaker 15: to pay prey not only for those that have lost

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Speaker 15: their lives, but also those that are injured.

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Speaker 13: Terrorism investigators are trying to determine if this was just

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Speaker 13: a car accident or something far worse. New York City's

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Speaker 13: effort to stop migrant buses has resulted in the buses

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Speaker 13: arriving instead in neighboring New Jersey. Over the weekend, buses

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Speaker 13: from Texas and Louisiana began dropping off asylum seekers at

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Speaker 13: several New Jersey transit stations. From there, the asylum seekers

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Speaker 13: are believed to have taken trains to New York City. Edison,

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Speaker 13: New Jersey, Mayor Sam Joshi says the buses are a

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Speaker 13: major risk to health and security.

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Speaker 8: The solution for me, as the mayor of Edison, is

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Speaker 8: not to punt it off to another mayor.

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Speaker 13: Global news twenty four hours a day and whenever you

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Speaker 13: want it with Bloomberg News Now. I'm Michael Barr, and

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Speaker 13: this is Bloomberg Jamie.

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Speaker 3: All right, Thank you, Michael, and we do bring you

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Speaker 3: news throughout the day here on Bloomberg Radio. And now

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Speaker 3: you can get the news on demand whenever you want it.

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Speaker 3: Subscribe to Bloomberg News Now to get the latest headlines

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Speaker 3: at the click of a button. Get informed on your schedule.

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Speaker 3: You can listen and subscribe to Bloomberg News Now on

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Speaker 3: the Bloomberg Business app, Bloomberg dot com, plus Apple, Spotify,

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Speaker 3: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Time Now with

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Speaker 3: the Sports Report, brought to you by Tri State Audi.

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Speaker 3: For that, we bring in John stash Hour.

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Speaker 16: Thanks Amy Kevil of terrific gains of the college football

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Speaker 16: playoff Semifinals overtime at the Rose Ball after Michigan tie

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Speaker 16: to Alabama the late touchdown in OT Wolverines had the

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Speaker 16: ball first.

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Speaker 7: The shotgun Laul McGain. This tiny palsison, he's.

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Speaker 5: Got the first out of more cons by the five

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Speaker 5: porl spix's way across.

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Speaker 3: The goal line, touch down Michigan seven.

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Speaker 16: Touchdown run ESPN the call Michigan had stop babacb Jalen

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Speaker 16: Milroe on a fourth down and won twenty seven to

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Speaker 16: twenty JJ McCarthy through three TD passes. And then came

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Speaker 16: the Sugar Bowl, where Washington never trailed. At a thirteen

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Speaker 16: point lead midway through the fourth quartern, Texas rallied had

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Speaker 16: four chances to take the lead the final fifteen seconds,

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Speaker 16: but ended the game with three incompletions on the Husky

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Speaker 16: survive thirty seven thirty one. Their QB, Michael Pennix Junior

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Speaker 16: threw for four hundred and thirty yards. Championship game next

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Speaker 16: Monday in Houston. Both Michigan and Washington will go in

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Speaker 16: fourteen and oh if Yesta bawl all Oregon forty five

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Speaker 16: to six over a limitary vote next through five TD

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Speaker 16: passes sitters pull in Orlando, all Tennessee thirty five nothing

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Speaker 16: over Iowa LSU won to rely a quest in Tampa

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Speaker 16: thirty five to thirty one over Wisconsin. Nick's happy to

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Speaker 16: start the new year at the Garden after an O

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Speaker 16: one three road trip. They beat Minnesota won twelve one

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Speaker 16: oh six. Julius Randall port in third nine points. Og

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Speaker 16: On Andobi made his next debut. He played thirty five

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Speaker 16: minutes before foulding out. He scored seventeen. In Toronto.

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Speaker 4: R J.

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Speaker 16: Barrett and Emmanuel quickly debuted for their new team. Scored

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Speaker 16: nineteen and fourteen points in a Raptors win over Cleveland

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Speaker 16: Outdoor Hockey in Seattle, crowd of forty seven thousand to

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Speaker 16: see the Kraken shout out Vegas three nothing. John stash

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Speaker 16: Away with Bloomberg.

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Speaker 17: Sports from coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco,

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Speaker 17: Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on syriasxam, the Bloomberg Business

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Speaker 17: app in Bloomberg dot com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

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Speaker 12: Good morning.

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Speaker 3: I'm Amy Morris, and we are entering the first week

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Speaker 3: of trading for twenty twenty four. As we do, most

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Speaker 3: investment outlooks from major banks and advisors are predicting the

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Speaker 3: same middle of the road scenario for the coming year,

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Speaker 3: an economic slowdown, a central bank pivot, and a late

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Speaker 3: year rebound. We're joined by Dennis Gartman, University of Akron

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Speaker 3: and Dowmic chairman and former publisher of the Gartment Letter

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Speaker 3: to sort of set us straight on what we can

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Speaker 3: expect for the coming year. Now and Dennis, the dollar

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Speaker 3: closed out its worst year since twenty twenty, the S

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Speaker 3: and P five hundred rows nine straight weeks. Are these

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Speaker 3: trends bound to continue?

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Speaker 18: I have my doubts as to the latter trend will continue.

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Speaker 18: I think stocks are extremely overbought. Market has risen on

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Speaker 18: an anticipation of three four, five six cuts in the

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Speaker 18: overnight fed funds rate by the Federal Reserve Bank. I

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Speaker 18: have my doubts as to whether that will occur. I

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Speaker 18: think that the Fed is done raising the overnight FED

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Speaker 18: funds rate. Of that, there's no doubt. But whether they're

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Speaker 18: going to cut five or six times, I think is

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Speaker 18: very doubtful. I think we have to anticipate the fact

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Speaker 18: that the Federal will delay any change in the overnight

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Speaker 18: FED funds rate lower to later this year. There's too

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Speaker 18: much anticipation that the FEDERALI begin cutting in the overnight

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Speaker 18: funds rate by March. I think it'll be late in

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Speaker 18: the summer, maybe early into the autumn before it happens,

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Speaker 18: But we shall see. Time shall tell. I think stocks, however,

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Speaker 18: are aggressive overbought, have been for some while, and it

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Speaker 18: seems to me this looks very similar to what happened

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Speaker 18: in twenty twenty one twenty twenty two, when we reach

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Speaker 18: the higher the market on the opening day of twenty

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Speaker 18: twenty one and then ended up having a rather substantive

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Speaker 18: decline in prices. So time shall tell. We'll see. But

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Speaker 18: too much anticipation of too much easier possibilities on the

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Speaker 18: part of the Fed that I don't think are going

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Speaker 18: to happen.

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Speaker 3: Now we have a Job's report coming out on Friday.

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Speaker 3: What are you watching for in that and how that

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Speaker 3: might impact it?

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Speaker 18: Long ago, I quit anticipating the over the employment rates

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Speaker 18: because of the fact that we tend to see such

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Speaker 18: huge numbers of revisions from one month to the next.

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Speaker 18: But right now the market is anticipating an increase of

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Speaker 18: about one hundred and seventy five to one hundred and

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Speaker 18: eighty five thousand new jobs. We shall see if that

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Speaker 18: if that occurs, but it's one of the most radically

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Speaker 18: revised reports of the year. Every every month of the

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Speaker 18: revisions are forty to fifty thousand plus or minus. So

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Speaker 18: right now the market is inticipating one hundred and seventy

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Speaker 18: five to one hundred eighty five thousand times. She'll tell

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Speaker 18: Barkley is predicting the softest landing.

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Speaker 3: Vanguard JP Morgan expecting a mild recession. But you know

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Speaker 3: that's what everybody predicted for twenty twenty three as well.

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Speaker 3: What's the difference now.

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Speaker 18: I was one of the people that expected to see

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Speaker 18: a recession in twenty twenty three, and clearly we have

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Speaker 18: not had that. The market is now anticipating the softest,

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Speaker 18: the best of all kind of soft landings. Imaginable I

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Speaker 18: have my doubts as to whether that will occur, but

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Speaker 18: that's what the market anticipates, that's what the stock prices

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Speaker 18: have anticipated, and that's what the world generally anticipates. Whether

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Speaker 18: whether it happens or not is up for debate. I

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Speaker 18: have my doubts, seriously, though. We are overextended to the upside.

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Speaker 18: We were long overdue on a recession because of the

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Speaker 18: FEDS tightening monetary policy over the course of the past

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Speaker 18: several years, and there's always long and reasonable legs between

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Speaker 18: the monetary policy and economic activity. I think we'll be

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Speaker 18: recessionary before the end of the year, but I don't

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Speaker 18: think it'll be a substance of one. I think it'll

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Speaker 18: be a very quiet one. Time. However, again, as I've

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Speaker 18: said too many times already this morning, time shall tell Yeah.

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Speaker 3: I was about to ask you what kind of recession

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Speaker 3: you were looking for. You're expecting a softish landing.

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Speaker 18: Yeah, yes, I think it'll be a very soft one,

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Speaker 18: a very minor one. We've seen these types of recessions before,

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Speaker 18: but I think it'll be a very a very quiet

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Speaker 18: and not anything like we saw in seventy three seventy four,

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Speaker 18: not anything like we saw in eighty one eighty two,

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Speaker 18: not anything like we saw nine. But it'll be a

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Speaker 18: recession and it'll be a quiet increase in over in

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Speaker 18: the unemployment rate to probably four or five percent before

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Speaker 18: it's done.

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Speaker 3: What do you see with oil and gold in this

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Speaker 3: new year?

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Speaker 18: Gold is opening up very strongly right now, and I

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Speaker 18: think gold wants to go from the lower left to

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Speaker 18: the upper right. It's been a bull market for a while,

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Speaker 18: and I think gold wants to go higher. Clearly. It's

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Speaker 18: heading about twenty one thousand before the before too long.

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Speaker 18: I think it goes to twenty two or twenty three

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Speaker 18: thousand before the year out. I have been very bearish

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Speaker 18: on crude oil for a while because the term structure

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Speaker 18: has been overly overtly barished, with the front months leading

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Speaker 18: on the downside and failing to gain upon the back

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Speaker 18: months when the market when the market rallies. But now

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Speaker 18: all of a sudden, we're starting to see the term

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Speaker 18: structure beginning to change a little bit, and everybody's watching

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Speaker 18: what's happening in the Gulf of Suez. I think that's

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Speaker 18: only going to get worse, not better. And for the

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Speaker 18: first time in months, I'm actually not bearish of crude oil.

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Speaker 18: I'm starting to turn bullish of a time shall tell,

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Speaker 18: but this is the first time in months that I've

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Speaker 18: actually been have not been barish on the crude oil

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Speaker 18: market because of the changing nature of the term structure.

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Speaker 3: You are listening to Bloomberg Daybreak Today, your morning brief

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Speaker 3: on the stories making news from Wall Street to Washington

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Speaker 3: and beyond.

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Speaker 3: Listen coast to coast on the Bloomberg Business app, Sirius

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Speaker 3: Xmiheartradio app, and on Bloomberg dot Com. I'm Amy Morris and.

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Speaker 2: I'm Karen Moscow. Join us again tomorrow morning for all

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