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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast.

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Speaker 1: It is officially week is it seven or eight? Now?

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Speaker 1: I'm getting tripped up by our pre show conversation here Matt,

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Speaker 1: jets are born two? That makes it week seven? There

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Speaker 1: we go. I've already slipped that in Jets four two

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Speaker 1: by the way, just saying burn too or wins two losses.

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Speaker 1: But we are very excited here today, not just because

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Speaker 1: of that, but also because we have a very special

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Speaker 1: guest joining us, of course, as always the Oracle himself,

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Speaker 1: Matt Friedman, and joining us today the vice president of

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Speaker 1: Research and Development for Sumer Sports, Eric Eager. Eric, thank

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Speaker 1: you so much for joining us today. How are you doing.

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Speaker 2: I'm doing great.

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Speaker 3: The season's been, it's flown by so far, and I'm

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Speaker 3: really excited to get to chats and football with you guys.

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Speaker 1: We're excited to have you too. But let's start off

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Speaker 1: the bout talking about Sumer Sports. What exactly is it

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Speaker 1: that you guys are doing over there, and how is

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Speaker 1: it that really you're trying to change up the NFL landscape?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's it's a very cool collection of people.

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Speaker 3: I have the Suomer Sports Show with former Falcons, GM

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Speaker 3: and CEO of Sumer Sports Thomason Mitrof. A little bit

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Speaker 3: of a change up from my old podcast, the pf

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Speaker 3: A forecast where uh, you know, George sah Hurry and

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Speaker 3: I mostly talked about you know, gambling and things you know,

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Speaker 3: surrounding the league. Thomas and I are talking a little

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Speaker 3: bit about gambling, but a lot of talking about you know,

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Speaker 3: team building and things like that. You know, the the

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Speaker 3: PFF had grown so much, you know during my time

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Speaker 3: there that I was doing a lot of stuff internally

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Speaker 3: for teams, and then obviously I had the forward facing

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Speaker 3: part with with gambling and fantasy football and things like that,

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Speaker 3: both college and pro sumer. You know, a great group

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Speaker 3: of people, you know, we're we're working right now on

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Speaker 3: you know, basically looking at how to help roster optimization,

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Speaker 3: which is using a lot of the stuff that I

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Speaker 3: had worked on at pf F, you know, sort of indirectly,

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Speaker 3: and then a lot of the stuff that you know,

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Speaker 3: you know, really smart folks like Paul Saban worked on

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Speaker 3: at ESPN, Sean Clement worked on it, you know with

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Speaker 3: the Dolphins and the Ravens, and and and obviously Thomas's

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Speaker 3: subject matter expertise with the Patriots and the Falcons and

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Speaker 3: so forth. So right now, really working on some stuff

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Speaker 3: internally for teams in the future. You know, we'll do

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Speaker 3: some forward facing stuff in our first for a And there,

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Speaker 3: of course is the podcast, which you can subscribe to.

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Speaker 3: We're two episodes and we're going to record after this

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Speaker 3: the third episode. And and you know, I'm really excited

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Speaker 3: just to work with some really, really talented folks and

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Speaker 3: and continue some of the great things we did at PFF.

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Speaker 1: Now, I'm sure that some of it you can't really

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Speaker 1: talk about because it's the internal goings on between you

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Speaker 1: and some of the teams, But can you give us

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Speaker 1: any kind of hint as to what some of the

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Speaker 1: things are that teams are turning to you guys for.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's it's a little bit, it's it's

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Speaker 3: obviously a little bit under wraps, but you know, I

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Speaker 3: think you can all imagine, you know, they want to

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Speaker 3: understand player value. They want to understand, you know, what

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Speaker 3: a draft pick is worth, what you know a free

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Speaker 3: agent signing is worth. And then I think, you know,

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Speaker 3: which makes it different than what most people are working on.

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Speaker 3: You know, teams want to know that if I, if

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Speaker 3: I make this one pick, what are the downstream effects

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Speaker 3: of everything else we're trying to do as a team,

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Speaker 3: and so on and so forth. So you know, it's

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Speaker 3: kind of like a holistic approach, and you know, and

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Speaker 3: me specifically, whether it's stuff that I've I've built for

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Speaker 3: you know, you know, linebackers biting on play action, using

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Speaker 3: tracking data or PFF war and stuff like that. A

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Speaker 3: lot of that is compartmentalized in a vacuum kind of stuff,

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Speaker 3: which is tremendousness push football analytics forward. But I think

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Speaker 3: what's cool is like the next question, which is, how

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Speaker 3: do all these pieces fit together? If I, you know,

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Speaker 3: if I if I try to run this style of offense,

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Speaker 3: you know, how much more valuable is a guy like

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Speaker 3: Trent Williams Versus if I have an offense with Patrick

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Speaker 3: Mahomes and turnstyle left tackle, maybe you can still have

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Speaker 3: the second best EPA in football. So there are a

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Speaker 3: lot of just really cool, interconnected parts of football that

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Speaker 3: make this job, you know, pretty fun.

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Speaker 4: So Eric, by the way, I just want to say

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Speaker 4: I love the podcast that you did with George. I

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Speaker 4: wouldn't say I listened to like every episode from the

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Speaker 4: very beginning, because I think you guys maybe at one

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Speaker 4: point started in the middle of a season, and so

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Speaker 4: I think there were some early shows that I missed,

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Speaker 4: but I was a very loyal listener. So thank you

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Speaker 4: for everything you did for the the printing Press, not

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Speaker 4: not the syndicate out the former syndicate, but the printing Press.

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Speaker 4: It was it was a fantastic show. And I still

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Speaker 4: listen with with George and and Ben on it. But

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Speaker 4: you you are missed. You're missed on that show. But

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Speaker 4: it's great to have you on the show. But I

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Speaker 4: appreciate it, and it was a you know, four and

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Speaker 4: a half years. It's sort of like I said this,

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Speaker 4: why tweeted it out. But you know, George and I

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Speaker 4: remain great friends, and you know, he and I are

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Speaker 4: very different in a lot of ways.

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Speaker 3: So I feel like four and a half years. You know,

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Speaker 3: I took four years to get my college. We had

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Speaker 3: to four years to get a PhD. I spent longer

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Speaker 3: in the school. I feel like I got a degree

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Speaker 3: in being George's friend, which I don't know if you know,

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Speaker 3: this feels like a long time.

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Speaker 4: So, you know, one of the things that you guys

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Speaker 4: would always focus on you know, quarterbackvaluation, you know, because

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Speaker 4: as much as everything else matters, quarterback values the most.

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Speaker 2: Uh.

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Speaker 4: And there's a situation this week where there's a lot

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Speaker 4: of quarterbacks in flux. So looking at at Thursday Night football,

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Speaker 4: you know, there's the question whether Jameis Winston is coming

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Speaker 4: back or if Andy Dalton will start another game, and

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Speaker 4: then a number of other quarterbacks. Carson Wentz is out,

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Speaker 4: Dak Prescott, it looks like he's returning, tuatuga Iloa, it

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Speaker 4: looks like he's returning, Mac Jones he might be returning

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Speaker 4: this week. And so kind of big picture question, how

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Speaker 4: is it that you go about determining what a quarterback

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Speaker 4: is worth relative to the spread? But then of course

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Speaker 4: that takes his backup into account as well. But so

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Speaker 4: kind of the process of thinking about quarterback value in general,

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Speaker 4: and then the guys who are in question this week,

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Speaker 4: how is it that you value them?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, it's a great question because, like you know, when

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Speaker 3: we made a number at PFF, it was a combination

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Speaker 3: of a number of things. So we have the ELO

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Speaker 3: rating that we built, which you know, if you look

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Speaker 3: at our squares in sample, it will actually it'll track

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Speaker 3: with the Vegas number like at you know, our square

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Speaker 3: towo point seventy five point eight. So you can get

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Speaker 3: three quarters of the way to understanding the variants in

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Speaker 3: the in the Vegas spread just by looking at this

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Speaker 3: elo metric, which only is backward looking and is really

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Speaker 3: just like the anchor of all you know, power ratings,

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Speaker 3: and I think you know, even it's sort of mimicking

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Speaker 3: what a book maker who had like keeps power ratings

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Speaker 3: by themselves is doing, right, like, oh, this team's a

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Speaker 3: minus seven, this teams a minus three, and so you

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Speaker 3: add in home field or whatever, and you can start

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Speaker 3: with a number, but then of course from there you

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Speaker 3: have to refine. And we had you know, something called

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Speaker 3: opponent and adjusted grades, which took the play by playgrades

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Speaker 3: adjusted for how good the opponent is, because the raw

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Speaker 3: PFF grades that you see, you know, on the website

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Speaker 3: are not adjusted for opponents, so you have to adjust

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Speaker 3: for that. That was another model that came into the ensemble.

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Speaker 3: And then there was a quarterback only model that put

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Speaker 3: in there, and you know, basic all of those things

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Speaker 3: you would give different waitings because we've seen a number

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Speaker 3: of times like when you look at like Dak Prescott's

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Speaker 3: out on Sunday Night football against the Vikings last year,

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Speaker 3: and that number moves from minus two and a half

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Speaker 3: to minus four and a half. And I do think,

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Speaker 3: for example, that Dak's worth that many points even crossing three.

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Speaker 3: But at the same time, like, are you overreacting to

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Speaker 3: that was the initial minus two and a half including

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Speaker 3: the likelihood that you know, at least a small probability

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Speaker 3: that Dak Prescott coming off of a cafe in Entry

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Speaker 3: was going to miss that game. And right, so there,

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Speaker 3: you know, there were a number of games last year

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Speaker 3: where closing line value would be negative and the and

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Speaker 3: the team, you know, with colp McCoy starting, for example

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Speaker 3: for Arizona the winning twice, you'd have like just over

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Speaker 3: corrections in the market. So it's incredibly important to ensemble

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Speaker 3: because there are you know, just if you just focus

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Speaker 3: on one variable in football, you can often be led

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Speaker 3: astray because there's so many interconnected things that that cause

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Speaker 3: you know, a number to move. But you know, just

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Speaker 3: in and of itself, and you can go to PFF

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Speaker 3: and look at the Power Rankings page. We put like

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Speaker 3: what we thought the point spread value was for every

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Speaker 3: single quarterback up in the Power Rankings page. And that

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Speaker 3: generally speaking, will guide you a little bit. But basically,

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Speaker 3: we took pff war, how many wins you were worth,

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Speaker 3: you know, per one thousand snaps, because some guys get injured,

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Speaker 3: you know, you divide that number. Now, a win this

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Speaker 3: year is actually worth less than a win previous years

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Speaker 3: because scoring is at as low as it's been in

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Speaker 3: a long time. But generally speaking, you take like the

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Speaker 3: number of points a player was worth, or a number

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Speaker 3: of wins a player was worth per season, divide that

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Speaker 3: by forty or you know, for a normal season. That

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Speaker 3: would give you kind of an idea, and then you

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Speaker 3: would adjust based upon that. Because there are you know,

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Speaker 3: obvious I think places where like a place like pff

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Speaker 3: war would be wrong. Take for example, a Jimmy Garoppolo

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Speaker 3: type player, who I think is more than the sum

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Speaker 3: of the parts or less, you know. Or take a

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Speaker 3: guy like Patrick Mahomes, who I think if you take

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Speaker 3: him off that Kansas City team, you know, Andy Reid,

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Speaker 3: as he did with Matt Moore a couple of times,

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Speaker 3: you'd probably still get better than you'd think.

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Speaker 2: Weirdly, even though Patrick Holmes is probably the best quarterback

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Speaker 2: in the league.

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Speaker 3: So there are a number of different instances there where

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Speaker 3: you have to adjust manually, and you know the folks

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Speaker 3: still at PFF.

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Speaker 1: Do that, guys, real quick, I want to talk to

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Speaker 1: you about Sleeper. Sleeper is the fastest growing fantasy platform

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Speaker 1: today with millions of players. You probably already have a

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Speaker 1: fantasy league on there. My friends and I changed over

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Speaker 1: this year and I absolutely love it. It's a game

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Speaker 1: changing product unlike anything else in the industry, and now

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Speaker 1: you can win on Sleeper by playing their new over undergame.

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Speaker 1: It's super simple. First, in any sport, choose two or

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Speaker 1: more players that you like and pick the over under

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Speaker 1: for example rushing yards in a football game or number

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Speaker 1: of points in a basketball game. Then choose the amount

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Speaker 1: of money you want to enter into the contest. If

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Speaker 1: you pick correctly, you can win anywhere from two times

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Speaker 1: so over twenty times the money you put in. The

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Speaker 1: main reason I'm excited about over under on Sleeper is

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Speaker 1: that it's the only app where I can join my

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Speaker 1: friends contests and play together. It's got a built in

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Speaker 1: group chat where I can see and copy my group's

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Speaker 4: Okay, so some of the quarterbacks this week who are

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Speaker 4: in question, I'm wondering if so, say, like Dak Prescott

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Speaker 4: when he went out and we had a new quarterback,

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Speaker 4: Cooper Rush coming in for Week two, I adjusted projections

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Speaker 4: down for us internally by five points, and that was

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Speaker 4: I think a fairly standard adjustment that I was looking

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Speaker 4: at other places some of the adjustments that they made.

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Speaker 4: But someone like Dak Prescott, what do you think that

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Speaker 4: he is worth to the spread And some of the

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Speaker 4: other quarterbacks who might or might not be playing this week.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so we we had Dak at six points, we

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Speaker 3: might you know that, And you know, obviously the other

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Speaker 3: variable is how much Cooper Rush is worth over replacement.

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Speaker 3: I think you know we had Cooper Rush initially as

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Speaker 3: a replacement player, because you know, they cut him right

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Speaker 3: before the season and had him on the practice squad,

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Speaker 3: so he was almost the definition of that now executing

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Speaker 3: that offense.

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Speaker 2: I don't know.

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Speaker 3: I got a lot of flak this year for saying

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Speaker 3: Kellen Moore was a top five play caller, but it's

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Speaker 3: very clear that like he does shine at five and

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Speaker 3: one record with with Cooper Rush as as the quarterback.

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Speaker 3: So maybe you know, now say I would I would

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Speaker 3: say Dak Prescott is still six points above a replacement quarterback,

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Speaker 3: but maybe you know, to get to your five points,

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Speaker 3: I think Cooper Rush is maybe one point above what

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Speaker 3: we would perceive to be a practice squad quarterback to be.

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Speaker 3: To get you those five points, there's also the weirdnesses

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Speaker 3: of which numbers you're crossing. So you know last season

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Speaker 3: the big one was, you know, the Vikings were seven

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Speaker 3: point underdogs, you know, against Green Bay in lambeau Field

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Speaker 3: on that Sunday night, Kirkus gets COVID, they have to

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Speaker 3: go with Sean Mannion. That went from seven to thirteen.

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Speaker 3: But if you're crossing eight, nine, ten, eleven, twelve, thirteen,

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Speaker 3: that's not as valuable as crossing you know, seven, six

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Speaker 3: and three on your way to a pick them. Let's say,

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Speaker 3: so it does it does matter a little bit, like

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Speaker 3: where you're going from. But yeah, for somebody like Dak,

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Speaker 3: it's about you know, six points is where I would

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Speaker 3: put it. But it is telling Like if you look

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Speaker 3: at like, for example, Pinnacle right around Sunday that Thursday spread,

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Speaker 3: they're hanging a number right because they're basically saying the

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Speaker 3: difference between Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston is basically nothing.

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Speaker 2: I think with New England they hung a number up there.

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Speaker 3: They're basically saying Bailey Zappi and Mac Jones are about

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Speaker 3: the same.

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Speaker 2: And those are telling things.

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Speaker 3: And frankly that you know, when we take those anecdotes,

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Speaker 3: you don't get to see that many it that much.

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Speaker 3: We got to see Aaron Rodgers gone one game for

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Speaker 3: Jordan Love last year. We get to see Dak for

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Speaker 3: a few games. You sort of you sort of use

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Speaker 3: those as anecdotes.

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Speaker 1: Now there, I was gonna ask, actually ask you about

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Speaker 1: the Saints specifically and Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston, but

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Speaker 1: you already answered that. So how about instead we talk

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Speaker 1: about Bailey Zappy for a minute. Here is as much

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Speaker 1: as the Dak Prescott Cooper rush quarterback controversy that I

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Speaker 1: say with heavy air quotes, there was just Jerry Jones manufactured.

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Speaker 1: I feel like watching zap Be play for a couple

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Speaker 1: of games here, could there actually be something to this?

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Speaker 1: How much is he really not that a fall off

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Speaker 1: from mac Jones or is this really about one for

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Speaker 1: one so far?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the weird part is is this might

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Speaker 3: just be like a distribution aspect, Like I think when

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Speaker 3: you have a quarterback that's taken at fifteen, the ceiling

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Speaker 3: is just a lot higher and you have and maybe

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Speaker 3: the floor is, you know, low, We've seen like last

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Speaker 3: year's draft, the twenty twenty one draft, like the floor

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Speaker 3: for all these quarterbacks is incredibly low, including mac Jones.

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Speaker 3: With Zappy you probably have the same floor and maybe

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Speaker 3: not all that different of a median. But with Zappi

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Speaker 3: you probably have a lower ceiling. Now with mac Jones,

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Speaker 3: you weren't getting that ceiling with with Joe Judge and

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Speaker 3: Matt Patricia sort of tagged teaming the play calling, so

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Speaker 3: for all intents and purposes, like they're the same quarterback.

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Speaker 3: Even though I think when you think long term about

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Speaker 3: who should be the QB for this team, it's mac

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Speaker 3: Jones because whenever, you know, if he decides to figure

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Speaker 3: it out, or he does figure it out, and they

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Speaker 3: have the players around him, they can be a solid side.

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Speaker 3: I think with respect to this season, where they're running

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Speaker 3: the football a lot and you know their their their

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Speaker 3: kid gloving the offense, I don't really see much of

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Speaker 3: a distinction between Zappi, who is kind of like, I know,

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Speaker 3: like and I don't mean this in a bad way,

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Speaker 3: but he's kind of a Kyle Orton where like you

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Speaker 3: can put him in and he's not going to mess

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Speaker 3: things up if everything goes well. But you would much

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Speaker 3: rather you know, the Bears back in the day would

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Speaker 3: have rather had Grossman than Orton in there, even though

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Speaker 3: their averages were about the same. Grossman clearly had a

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Speaker 3: bigger upside that he never realized that that that I

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Speaker 3: think is kind of the same thing here, where you know,

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Speaker 3: Mac Jones isn't great, but if everything hits that draft

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Speaker 3: capital being the fifteenth pick, I think you'd prefer that

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Speaker 3: over a guy whose draft capital is much weaker.

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Speaker 1: How about this weekend's game in particular, because they're obviously

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Speaker 1: they're playing the Bears on Monday night. It's still up

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Speaker 1: in the air right now with the extra day. If

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Speaker 1: Mac Jones is going to be able to come in,

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Speaker 1: this line is sitting in eight. Do you see it

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Speaker 1: moving in any way once we get an affirmative one

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Speaker 1: way or the other. Again, also with Bill Belichick, we

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Speaker 1: might just not get an affirmative until someone walks out

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Speaker 1: on the field, right.

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Speaker 3: And the question is is, like all these things move

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Speaker 3: in certain directions. I think the narrative right now is that, like,

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Speaker 3: Bill Belichick is going to beat the heck out of

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Speaker 3: a young quarterback, right, And so you've seen that number

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Speaker 3: open around seven, it moved out to eight. And I

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Speaker 3: think almost all of that has to do with the

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Speaker 3: narratives associated with Belichick against young quarterbacks, Belichick against bad

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Speaker 3: offenses more so than it is Mac Jones.

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Speaker 2: Bailey is appy.

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Speaker 3: But I also think that there's probably a little bit

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Speaker 3: of trust in the process of Bill Belichick saying, look,

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Speaker 3: we don't know who the quarterback is, but we know

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Speaker 3: that the best coach of all time is going to

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Speaker 3: pick the better of the two guys. He's done it repeatedly,

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Speaker 3: so you know basically what they're probably putting in as

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Speaker 3: a placeholder. Is the quarterback for the Patriots on Monday

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Speaker 3: Night is going to be the better of the two

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Speaker 3: players at the time, and that's worth maybe a half

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Speaker 3: a point in New England's direction.

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Speaker 2: You know.

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Speaker 4: It's interesting. So you mentioned that this line had opened

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Speaker 4: maybe around seven, and we even look you know, further

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Speaker 4: back in the past and the preseason, that number was

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Speaker 4: six on the look ahead, it was six and a

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Speaker 4: half and then it's continued to move that direction. We've

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Speaker 4: also seen similar movement in that way with looking at

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Speaker 4: Tampa Bay and Carolina just a totally disgusting game. But

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Speaker 4: this number in the preseason or sorry, in the offseason

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Speaker 4: was around five and a half on the look ahead,

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Speaker 4: it was nine and a half. It opened on the

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Speaker 4: early line at ten, and now it's at eleven. And

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Speaker 4: there's just so much that has gone wrong with Tampa

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Speaker 4: Bay this year, but much more that has gone wrong

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Speaker 4: with Carolina. How is it that you are reading the

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Speaker 4: market movement over the past months that we've seen from

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Speaker 4: that original you know, off season number of five to

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Speaker 4: where we are now.

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Speaker 3: Well, I think everybody was sort of open to the

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Speaker 3: idea in the off season that Carolina was going to

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Speaker 3: have some sort of upgrade at quarterback over Sam Darnold.

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Speaker 3: And you know, when Baker Mayfield came in, we all

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Speaker 3: had we were saying, Okay, you know, he's injured last year,

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Speaker 3: the prior season, he wasn't great, but he you know,

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Speaker 3: I put him, you know, Mayfield at about a three

377
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Speaker 3: and a half points above replacement. Now, seeing as how

378
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Speaker 3: he's played, he's probably more like one or two points

379
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Speaker 3: above replacement. So you get a movement fundamentally in who

380
00:17:40,520 --> 00:17:44,040
Speaker 3: Mayfield was, right, and then from there you have Philip Locker,

381
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Speaker 3: who last week, you know, was basically a replacement level

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Speaker 3: quarterback not only in ability but also in what they

383
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Speaker 3: asked him to do, which is hardly anything. And so

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Speaker 3: I think you move a little bit more in that direction,

385
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Speaker 3: you lose Robbie Anderson. I also think you get some

386
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Speaker 3: downstream effects from what that looks like for Robbie Anderson

387
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Speaker 3: relative to the other teams as well. And then you

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Speaker 3: take a look at Tampa, and you know, Tampa sucked

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Speaker 3: them on Sunday, but they moved the football, okay, like

390
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Speaker 3: it wasn't like they were punting from their own twenty.

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Speaker 3: Every time they got some field goals, they got some

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Speaker 3: you know, you know, they they did move the ball, okay,

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Speaker 3: to a certain extent, they are getting healthier, and I think,

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Speaker 3: like you know, that that's really where it is.

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Speaker 2: And there's also a desperation factor.

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Speaker 3: They're five hundred in a in a division that we

397
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Speaker 3: all thought every team would stink, and Atlanta's sitting there

398
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Speaker 3: at three and three randomly, and also six and oh

399
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Speaker 3: against the spread. So I think that there's also like

400
00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:39,200
Speaker 3: a whether it's real or not, like a desperation move

401
00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:42,000
Speaker 3: as well in that number where Tampa's got to win

402
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Speaker 3: this football game to keep pace with Atlanta and also

403
00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:49,480
Speaker 3: with you know, everybody in the NFC but Philadelphia, So

404
00:18:49,960 --> 00:18:52,000
Speaker 3: that I think is also baked in there. I think

405
00:18:52,040 --> 00:18:54,560
Speaker 3: it's less about maybe the fundamentals and more about just

406
00:18:54,600 --> 00:18:57,280
Speaker 3: the spot for people bet betting Tampa.

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Speaker 4: Here, right, you don't actually sorry, I have I have

408
00:18:59,880 --> 00:19:02,320
Speaker 4: a follow up. This is this is a good question, Tom,

409
00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:04,800
Speaker 4: This is actually gonna be a good question. Okay, So

410
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Speaker 4: we're you mentioned the the kind of the desperation factor

411
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Speaker 4: that maybe has attached itself to Tampa Bay and has

412
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Speaker 4: helped drive the spread towards them, you know, off of

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Speaker 4: the key number of ten and I mean, who knows

414
00:19:18,920 --> 00:19:22,080
Speaker 4: by the time game time gets here. Uh, you know,

415
00:19:22,320 --> 00:19:25,040
Speaker 4: depending on who's starting for the Panthers, depending on whether

416
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Speaker 4: anyone else has been traded this, this number might be

417
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Speaker 4: closer to fourteen, right, Like that that is possible just

418
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Speaker 4: based on things that could unfold over the rest of

419
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Speaker 4: the week. Now, I you know, have done a historical

420
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Speaker 4: survey of different like different numbers, you know, like when

421
00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:44,680
Speaker 4: it makes sense to bet something on the spread versus

422
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Speaker 4: the money line. Now, obviously you would never say, like, Okay,

423
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Speaker 4: I'm going to put multiple units on a heavy favorite

424
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Speaker 4: to make up for the fact that I'm betting the

425
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Speaker 4: money line instead of the spread. But it seems as

426
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Speaker 4: if there are certain thresholds above which it is reasonable

427
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Speaker 4: to assume. I'm trying to think of the right way

428
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Speaker 4: of phrasing this. The odds that we normally see in

429
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Speaker 4: the market, like the correlated odds between money line and spread,

430
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Speaker 4: that those are not actually representative of what realistically happens

431
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Speaker 4: within a football game, at least based on historical data.

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Speaker 4: That teams who are maybe massive, massive favorites, they don't

433
00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:34,479
Speaker 4: always cover, obviously, but a lot of them win at

434
00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:37,639
Speaker 4: a higher rate than what you would expect based on

435
00:20:37,760 --> 00:20:42,400
Speaker 4: the implied odds of the money line and normally how

436
00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:45,879
Speaker 4: we think of those odds correlated to the spread. So

437
00:20:46,280 --> 00:20:50,639
Speaker 4: I guess I'm asking, does that kind of does that

438
00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:54,360
Speaker 4: align with some of your with some of your thoughts,

439
00:20:54,640 --> 00:20:57,320
Speaker 4: or do you think I'm totally wrong in thinking that

440
00:20:57,359 --> 00:20:59,959
Speaker 4: there are times when it actually makes sense, not like

441
00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:02,040
Speaker 4: to put a large amount of money, but like to

442
00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:05,240
Speaker 4: bet a unit instead of betting a unit on the

443
00:21:05,320 --> 00:21:08,399
Speaker 4: spread where there isn't any value, there actually is some

444
00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:10,560
Speaker 4: value on the money line.

445
00:21:11,200 --> 00:21:13,159
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think a lot of that ends up being

446
00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:16,639
Speaker 3: you know, lost in the wash when you think about like,

447
00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:18,920
Speaker 3: you know, let's say you want to, you know, take

448
00:21:18,960 --> 00:21:21,080
Speaker 3: a you know, whether or not you want to lay

449
00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:23,919
Speaker 3: minus three with a team, or take like minus one

450
00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:26,040
Speaker 3: fifty on the money line. I think, you know, I'm

451
00:21:26,080 --> 00:21:29,919
Speaker 3: somebody who you know, I'm fine with laying minus you know,

452
00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:32,879
Speaker 3: one fifty or so on a team, especially you know,

453
00:21:33,040 --> 00:21:35,199
Speaker 3: and I know this isn't about college football, but like

454
00:21:35,560 --> 00:21:37,159
Speaker 3: when I'm looking at a college game and I know

455
00:21:37,200 --> 00:21:40,160
Speaker 3: the points are just worthless, you know, I might lay.

456
00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:41,920
Speaker 3: I might be more likely to lay three in a

457
00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:43,640
Speaker 3: college game than I would be in an NFL game,

458
00:21:43,720 --> 00:21:45,959
Speaker 3: knowing how close the games are and how much more

459
00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:48,560
Speaker 3: the points are worth, you know, in an NFL game

460
00:21:48,640 --> 00:21:52,000
Speaker 3: versus a college game, but you could, you know it.

461
00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:54,600
Speaker 3: It also depends like if a game's you know, lined

462
00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:57,399
Speaker 3: minus ten or something, and you know the total is

463
00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:00,560
Speaker 3: in the thirties, like you it's a different handicap than

464
00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:02,920
Speaker 3: if the game's line minus ten and the totals in

465
00:22:02,960 --> 00:22:07,280
Speaker 3: the fifties and and so Yeah, there are certainly edge

466
00:22:07,280 --> 00:22:11,200
Speaker 3: cases there. I would say over a huge sample, you're

467
00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:14,119
Speaker 3: probably going to get the same return whether or not

468
00:22:14,200 --> 00:22:16,639
Speaker 3: you bet, you know, you lay the money line with

469
00:22:16,680 --> 00:22:21,120
Speaker 3: the team versus the points. But I think in certain circumstances,

470
00:22:21,200 --> 00:22:22,399
Speaker 3: you look at a game like this and it's like,

471
00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:24,520
Speaker 3: what are the incentives for the team. Is there a

472
00:22:24,600 --> 00:22:27,600
Speaker 3: huge incentive for Tampa Bay? After all, they proved won

473
00:22:27,600 --> 00:22:30,200
Speaker 3: a Super Bowl, you know, you know, got the two

474
00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:33,640
Speaker 3: seed last year, you know, Tom Brady being forty five,

475
00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:36,760
Speaker 3: like they do they really need to beat the crap

476
00:22:36,760 --> 00:22:38,879
Speaker 3: out of Carolina or do they just need to win

477
00:22:38,920 --> 00:22:39,640
Speaker 3: this football game?

478
00:22:39,680 --> 00:22:40,280
Speaker 2: I do think that.

479
00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:45,639
Speaker 3: There are certainly, you know, certainly situations that you know

480
00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:48,879
Speaker 3: are are important there. Kansas City, for example, in twenty twenty,

481
00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:51,359
Speaker 3: they went fourteen and one in games that mattered, and

482
00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:53,200
Speaker 3: they didn't cover a game for the last like seven

483
00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:54,960
Speaker 3: or eight games of the year. And in fact, they

484
00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:57,520
Speaker 3: won five road games that year against teams that won

485
00:22:57,560 --> 00:23:00,760
Speaker 3: ten games or more. So they were, you know, just

486
00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:02,920
Speaker 3: win baby. Like they got back door by the Saints

487
00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:05,000
Speaker 3: that year, they got back door by the Dolphins that year,

488
00:23:05,160 --> 00:23:08,440
Speaker 3: they got back doored I think by Tampa Bay when

489
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:12,360
Speaker 3: they actually won that game that year. So there are situations,

490
00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:14,720
Speaker 3: I think where you have to look at the incentives

491
00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:17,760
Speaker 3: and maybe this is one where Brady and the Bucks like, look,

492
00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:20,560
Speaker 3: they look horrible. It is a twenty one point win

493
00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:24,480
Speaker 3: against Carolina. Really gonna take our you know, make us

494
00:23:24,680 --> 00:23:27,440
Speaker 3: all that more confident in them? No, okay, so win

495
00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:29,159
Speaker 3: the game, right, that kind of thing. I don't know

496
00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:31,800
Speaker 3: if that is actually what goes into their mind, which

497
00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:34,439
Speaker 3: is why I think over the course of a big sample,

498
00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:35,359
Speaker 3: you're just better off.

499
00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:37,840
Speaker 2: If you like money lines, just bet money lines.

500
00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:39,920
Speaker 3: If you like spread, just bet spreads, and there are

501
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:41,600
Speaker 3: gonna be And you could look at places like bettsand

502
00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:43,760
Speaker 3: for this, or Fantasy Prost for this, where you know,

503
00:23:43,800 --> 00:23:46,560
Speaker 3: you just see like the misalignment right in, the best

504
00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:48,880
Speaker 3: available number might be a money line, and it might

505
00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 3: just be a dull book that hasn't moved yet, you know,

506
00:23:52,720 --> 00:23:54,960
Speaker 3: just take the best available price type of thing. But ye,

507
00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:58,119
Speaker 3: I think you have a point to a certain extent.

508
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:00,760
Speaker 1: And it is important to mention with APEC. Maybe not

509
00:24:00,800 --> 00:24:03,040
Speaker 1: when you get up to the fourteen level, but if

510
00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:05,119
Speaker 1: you're looking at a game that's say one and a

511
00:24:05,119 --> 00:24:08,640
Speaker 1: half two and a half, you can do the calculations

512
00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:12,919
Speaker 1: like there is a numerical value of three to minus

513
00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:14,840
Speaker 1: two and a half at minus one ten is the

514
00:24:14,880 --> 00:24:16,960
Speaker 1: equivalent to this price money line? And if you have

515
00:24:17,000 --> 00:24:18,879
Speaker 1: a better price than that on the money line, the

516
00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:21,359
Speaker 1: answer is take the money line. And if the price

517
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:23,159
Speaker 1: is better on the spread, obviously the answer is to

518
00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:25,080
Speaker 1: take the spread. That's that's how I like to look

519
00:24:25,080 --> 00:24:26,760
Speaker 1: at it with those smaller spreads, when I'm trying to

520
00:24:26,800 --> 00:24:28,600
Speaker 1: decide between money line and spread.

521
00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:33,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, absolutely, I think it's it really is about you know,

522
00:24:33,920 --> 00:24:36,320
Speaker 3: it really is about just maximizing profit, right, And I

523
00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:39,480
Speaker 3: think you know over time, you know, football is such

524
00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:42,399
Speaker 3: a small sample game that again you're looking Once you

525
00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:45,919
Speaker 3: enlarge the sample, obviously you can get statistical power with that,

526
00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:49,000
Speaker 3: but you're also going to ignore the very real things

527
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:50,879
Speaker 3: that are happening in a football team. Much like you

528
00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:52,719
Speaker 3: know with the twenty twenty Chiefs where it was just like,

529
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:55,280
Speaker 3: let's just get out of these games with w's let's

530
00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:58,320
Speaker 3: not worry if every single game is minus nine and

531
00:24:58,320 --> 00:24:58,680
Speaker 3: a half.

532
00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:01,119
Speaker 2: It's just like, you know, maybe that isn't a you know,

533
00:25:01,760 --> 00:25:02,360
Speaker 2: something to bet.

534
00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:04,480
Speaker 3: The other the other tool you have in the toolbox

535
00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:07,240
Speaker 3: as a better are also alts, right, So you know,

536
00:25:07,320 --> 00:25:09,040
Speaker 3: for example, if you want to if you want to

537
00:25:09,080 --> 00:25:10,800
Speaker 3: take down maybe you don't want to bet Tampa Bay

538
00:25:10,840 --> 00:25:12,480
Speaker 3: money line, but maybe you want to bet them minus

539
00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:14,000
Speaker 3: five and a half and just be like, you know,

540
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:17,320
Speaker 3: lay it, you know, lay a bigger price there, or

541
00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:19,959
Speaker 3: bet them minus nineteen and a half and get some

542
00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:20,880
Speaker 3: more like there.

543
00:25:20,920 --> 00:25:22,000
Speaker 2: There are certain situations.

544
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:23,960
Speaker 3: I remember last year when the when the Chiefs played

545
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:26,720
Speaker 3: the Raiders in Vegas on Sunday night, Like I just

546
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:28,200
Speaker 3: I was like, look, this is a minus two and

547
00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:30,160
Speaker 3: a half. I could totally see them losing this game.

548
00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:32,240
Speaker 3: But I do think if they win, they're going to

549
00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:34,359
Speaker 3: hit on all cylinders. So let's bet minus six and

550
00:25:34,359 --> 00:25:36,199
Speaker 3: a half at a big price at a big payoff,

551
00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:38,080
Speaker 3: Let's bet minus nine and a half at a big payoff,

552
00:25:38,560 --> 00:25:40,520
Speaker 3: and so on. So that's another tool that you have.

553
00:25:40,920 --> 00:25:42,800
Speaker 3: You know, you don't just have to bet the spread

554
00:25:42,880 --> 00:25:44,400
Speaker 3: as it's given to you at minus one ten.

555
00:25:45,400 --> 00:25:48,240
Speaker 1: That's very true, And I like the thought process there

556
00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:50,480
Speaker 1: because I've definitely had that same thought of saying, oh, hey,

557
00:25:50,520 --> 00:25:53,760
Speaker 1: this game seems pretty close, but in the same vein

558
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:55,760
Speaker 1: if they're gonna win it, they're gonna beat the brakes

559
00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 1: off of them, or they're going to lose it, so

560
00:25:57,359 --> 00:25:59,919
Speaker 1: let's bet it the other way. One game that is

561
00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:03,400
Speaker 1: very interesting this week though, especially after the market movement

562
00:26:03,480 --> 00:26:07,160
Speaker 1: from last night. The Jets and Denver moved from three

563
00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:09,040
Speaker 1: and a half in the look ahead, it's two and

564
00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:13,080
Speaker 1: a half now. It was three in most shops before

565
00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:16,879
Speaker 1: Denver played on Monday night. Here as a Jets fan especially,

566
00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:19,960
Speaker 1: this feels like the letdown spot has to be coming.

567
00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:21,640
Speaker 1: And now I believe in this team and I'm looking

568
00:26:21,640 --> 00:26:22,120
Speaker 1: at this game.

569
00:26:22,160 --> 00:26:22,439
Speaker 4: I was.

570
00:26:23,119 --> 00:26:26,000
Speaker 1: I understand the home field advantage Denver has just by

571
00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:30,520
Speaker 1: being in Denver, but this this Broncos team, they do

572
00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:33,440
Speaker 1: not look good right now, and it seems like every

573
00:26:33,440 --> 00:26:35,600
Speaker 1: week Russell Wilson is just having a bad game and

574
00:26:35,640 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 1: then coming around and saying, oh, I have this injury. Now,

575
00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:40,920
Speaker 1: what's going on in Denver? And do you think that

576
00:26:41,000 --> 00:26:45,000
Speaker 1: this line should maybe continue moving in the direction it

577
00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:46,000
Speaker 1: is towards the Jets.

578
00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:49,120
Speaker 3: It's so weird because this is just not a this

579
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:53,200
Speaker 3: is not an offense that is that is well posed

580
00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:56,160
Speaker 3: for Russell Wilson. So last season PFF with you know,

581
00:26:56,440 --> 00:26:59,239
Speaker 3: folks at PFF started charting like off ball stuff and

582
00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:01,800
Speaker 3: you could look at percentage of plays where at least

583
00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:05,040
Speaker 3: one wide receiver got opened. And last year the Seattle

584
00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:08,119
Speaker 3: Seahawks were a bottom five team in that metric, and

585
00:27:08,200 --> 00:27:10,760
Speaker 3: Russell Wilson was a top five player in terms of

586
00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:15,000
Speaker 3: hitting open receivers, meaning, you know, they weren't getting open

587
00:27:15,320 --> 00:27:17,679
Speaker 3: better than other teams, but Russell was able within that

588
00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:20,240
Speaker 3: offense to find the open guy. And so what was

589
00:27:20,280 --> 00:27:23,360
Speaker 3: really funny was Denver last season was the opposite. They

590
00:27:23,400 --> 00:27:26,280
Speaker 3: had a top five rate in terms of percentage of

591
00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:28,679
Speaker 3: plays where at least one receiver would get open, but

592
00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:31,480
Speaker 3: they were bottom you know, Bridgewater and Locke would throw

593
00:27:31,560 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 3: to contested guys a lot. So you're like, okay, this

594
00:27:33,400 --> 00:27:36,440
Speaker 3: is perfect Russell's really good at this, and you realize

595
00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:39,600
Speaker 3: that it's like, well, no, Russell, Wilson's not good at

596
00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:41,360
Speaker 3: throwing the ball in front of his face. Like he's

597
00:27:41,400 --> 00:27:43,200
Speaker 3: not good at throwing to the you know, to the

598
00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:45,399
Speaker 3: places where Jerry Judy gets open. We saw that a

599
00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:47,680
Speaker 3: few times yesterday where he just was not able to

600
00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:50,160
Speaker 3: let it rip. Maybe he's not physically able to, but whatever.

601
00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:52,760
Speaker 3: You come back and you look at the Jets, like,

602
00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:54,960
Speaker 3: what do they have. They have a corner who's able

603
00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:57,320
Speaker 3: to shut down one of the players on the other team.

604
00:27:57,520 --> 00:28:00,480
Speaker 3: So not only are the players that are used getting

605
00:28:00,480 --> 00:28:02,520
Speaker 3: open and the wrong spot is going to be less open,

606
00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:06,480
Speaker 3: but also Wilson is in addition sort of you know,

607
00:28:06,680 --> 00:28:10,160
Speaker 3: survivorship biasing that in that he's not even like finding

608
00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:12,600
Speaker 3: the guys who are getting open either. So you know,

609
00:28:12,640 --> 00:28:14,760
Speaker 3: the Jets aren't a great football team. I don't think

610
00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:17,560
Speaker 3: there are that many great football teams. But do I

611
00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:19,920
Speaker 3: think they match up? Okay, yeah, I think they match up. Okay,

612
00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:22,400
Speaker 3: I think that they're you know physically there with Reed

613
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:24,840
Speaker 3: and with and with Sauce, and you know, the safety

614
00:28:24,840 --> 00:28:27,719
Speaker 3: position has gotten better of the offseason. They got Moseley

615
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:30,240
Speaker 3: back who you know isn't a great linebacker, but can

616
00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:32,199
Speaker 3: really get people lined up. And then when you have

617
00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:34,879
Speaker 3: loss in and guys like you know, even you know

618
00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:37,640
Speaker 3: Lowson has been terrific so far, and they really missed

619
00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:40,280
Speaker 3: him last year. I think that they're going to struggle

620
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:42,240
Speaker 3: to score. The question is is like how much of

621
00:28:42,280 --> 00:28:45,960
Speaker 3: the Jets offense can they muster? Because last week was

622
00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:48,200
Speaker 3: all about you know, special teams and short fields and

623
00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:51,200
Speaker 3: stuff like that. Wilson hasn't been great, especially when under pressure.

624
00:28:51,200 --> 00:28:53,680
Speaker 3: I think his pass rating is like worse than just

625
00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 3: grounding the ball when under pressure this year. And Denver

626
00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:59,520
Speaker 3: can put heat on the quarterbacks. So if I'm looking

627
00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:01,000
Speaker 3: at this game, I do think it's more of like

628
00:29:01,040 --> 00:29:03,360
Speaker 3: a very low scoring coin flippy type of game where

629
00:29:03,560 --> 00:29:05,320
Speaker 3: points one, two, and three are worth a lot.

630
00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:08,160
Speaker 1: I saw a chart today and I'm trying to find

631
00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:10,040
Speaker 1: it on the Twitter version. I'm not having any luck.

632
00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:12,400
Speaker 3: Wilson was in like the bottom right corner where like

633
00:29:12,560 --> 00:29:14,960
Speaker 3: on on good play on plays he's not pressure, he's

634
00:29:15,000 --> 00:29:17,160
Speaker 3: generating a ton of e p A. On plays where

635
00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:19,719
Speaker 3: he's pressured, he's he's he's dumping a lot of EPA.

636
00:29:19,880 --> 00:29:24,440
Speaker 3: So if you're you know, Mike Lafleur, you know, you're

637
00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 3: you're really gonna have to dial up the bootlegs and

638
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:28,160
Speaker 3: the and that kind of thing.

639
00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:30,840
Speaker 2: But they have the players. I mean, Garrett Wilson was

640
00:29:30,840 --> 00:29:32,080
Speaker 2: a great draft pick. You know.

641
00:29:32,120 --> 00:29:34,600
Speaker 3: They the tight ends are okay for them as well.

642
00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:37,120
Speaker 3: And then obviously the running back position. Breise Hall is

643
00:29:37,120 --> 00:29:40,480
Speaker 3: playing better, you know, than than people even I think

644
00:29:40,520 --> 00:29:43,240
Speaker 3: believe he could. So there's meat on the bone for

645
00:29:43,280 --> 00:29:46,000
Speaker 3: the Jets offense. But you know, the twenty seven points

646
00:29:46,040 --> 00:29:49,440
Speaker 3: they scored in Lambeau I think are not necessarily reflective

647
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:50,760
Speaker 3: of how good they are offensively.

648
00:29:51,600 --> 00:29:55,000
Speaker 1: The Jets do have the favorites for both offensive and

649
00:29:55,040 --> 00:29:57,840
Speaker 1: defensive Rookie of the Year are both Jets. One on

650
00:29:57,880 --> 00:29:59,960
Speaker 1: Earth is going on right now. But Matt, what came?

651
00:30:00,080 --> 00:30:01,280
Speaker 1: Do you want to talk about next year?

652
00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:04,320
Speaker 4: Yeah? I want to ask Eric about Detroit in Dallas,

653
00:30:04,360 --> 00:30:07,760
Speaker 4: because you know, Eric is very much on the Restore

654
00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:11,680
Speaker 4: the War bandwagon. I am a Cowboys fan who hates

655
00:30:11,720 --> 00:30:15,440
Speaker 4: the Cowboys. The thing is, I'm looking at them. I

656
00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:19,560
Speaker 4: am incorporating the likelihood, I would say, of Dak returning

657
00:30:19,600 --> 00:30:23,080
Speaker 4: to action this week. I think in terms of power ratings,

658
00:30:23,200 --> 00:30:26,160
Speaker 4: they cleanly belong in the top eight in the league.

659
00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:27,920
Speaker 4: I have them higher than that. I actually have them

660
00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:31,360
Speaker 4: number four in my power ratings, and like, in my gut,

661
00:30:31,560 --> 00:30:34,880
Speaker 4: that feels aggressive, but they've got a really good defense

662
00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:37,680
Speaker 4: that last year I felt was a little bit fraudulent,

663
00:30:37,800 --> 00:30:40,680
Speaker 4: but this year has proven itself to be very real.

664
00:30:41,080 --> 00:30:44,680
Speaker 4: And now they have their starting quarterback returning, so I

665
00:30:44,720 --> 00:30:46,920
Speaker 4: think of them as a very good team. That said,

666
00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:49,800
Speaker 4: you know, entering the year, I was higher on the

667
00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:52,640
Speaker 4: Lions than I think a lot of people were. I

668
00:30:52,720 --> 00:30:56,480
Speaker 4: haven't moved them down really all that much in my

669
00:30:56,640 --> 00:31:00,560
Speaker 4: power ratings. You know, they had some injuries, know, there

670
00:31:00,600 --> 00:31:03,640
Speaker 4: have been things that haven't been great. Their defense is horrible,

671
00:31:04,120 --> 00:31:06,560
Speaker 4: but their offense is really good and they're coming off

672
00:31:06,560 --> 00:31:09,680
Speaker 4: of a bye. So I actually I do have the

673
00:31:09,720 --> 00:31:12,920
Speaker 4: Lions showing value in this spot. I think this line

674
00:31:12,920 --> 00:31:15,520
Speaker 4: should be five and a half. It's seven right now.

675
00:31:15,560 --> 00:31:18,640
Speaker 4: But you know, Eric, I'm curious your thoughts on this

676
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:23,280
Speaker 4: game specifically, and then you know, Dallas, how high are

677
00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:25,720
Speaker 4: you on this team given what we've seen out of

678
00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:29,480
Speaker 4: their defense and then specifically with Dak Prescott coming back.

679
00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:33,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, so let's look at the Lions on offense. You know,

680
00:31:33,160 --> 00:31:35,560
Speaker 3: they're struggling on the interior. Rag Now has been injured

681
00:31:35,720 --> 00:31:39,080
Speaker 3: by tie head surgery. Jonah Jackson. They're gonna get some

682
00:31:39,080 --> 00:31:40,840
Speaker 3: of those players back. They're gonna be healthy, right and

683
00:31:40,840 --> 00:31:43,720
Speaker 3: and Decker and Sewell are a good pair of tackles.

684
00:31:45,120 --> 00:31:49,000
Speaker 3: The the Dallas Cowboys, they run more stunts than any

685
00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:51,160
Speaker 3: team in the league, right and I think five percentage

686
00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:54,360
Speaker 3: points higher than anybody else, which is a ton that

687
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:57,800
Speaker 3: they pair that with Micah Parsons, who you know coming

688
00:31:57,800 --> 00:32:00,200
Speaker 3: off the edge as a Lawrence Taylor type player. So

689
00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:04,520
Speaker 3: I think Detroit is going to have to be very

690
00:32:04,560 --> 00:32:06,600
Speaker 3: sound on the offensive front. I do like that they're

691
00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:10,680
Speaker 3: getting healthier there because I think their skill positions are underrated.

692
00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:13,360
Speaker 3: I think Hawkinson is a very good tight end. Obviously.

693
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:15,240
Speaker 3: I'm on ross Nate Brown. When he missed time or

694
00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:18,240
Speaker 3: was banged up, that really hurt that offense. Chark has

695
00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:20,880
Speaker 3: missed time and that has hurt that offense. You know,

696
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:22,880
Speaker 3: with Josh Reynolds, and you know they're not gonna get

697
00:32:22,960 --> 00:32:25,680
Speaker 3: James Williams back. But DeAndre Swift has been I mean

698
00:32:25,880 --> 00:32:28,040
Speaker 3: Dendre Swift has averaged something like eight yards of carry

699
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:28,320
Speaker 3: this year.

700
00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:29,960
Speaker 2: In like five yards security after contact.

701
00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:33,200
Speaker 3: So I think that as long as they can protect Goff,

702
00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:37,640
Speaker 3: they should be okay on offense. I think if you're

703
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:39,960
Speaker 3: a Lions fan and you're and you're hoping for this bet,

704
00:32:40,000 --> 00:32:42,520
Speaker 3: what you hope is what you got out of Dallas

705
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 3: last year when Dak returned, which was a sputtering offense

706
00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:48,200
Speaker 3: right where Dak Prescott is simply you know, he's more

707
00:32:48,240 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 3: of a rhythm guy. He's not he doesn't have a

708
00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:52,600
Speaker 3: great arm, so he's got to be on time and

709
00:32:52,600 --> 00:32:55,240
Speaker 3: stuff like that. And in Week one against Tampa Bay,

710
00:32:55,440 --> 00:32:57,960
Speaker 3: they smothered him like he was you know, I think

711
00:32:58,000 --> 00:33:00,520
Speaker 3: Ceedee Lamb had like two catches on like twelve targets

712
00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:03,800
Speaker 3: or something crazy like that. And you know, they they

713
00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:06,080
Speaker 3: put the kid gloves on for Cooper Rush, they took

714
00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:07,520
Speaker 3: them off for Dak Prescott and.

715
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:09,760
Speaker 2: You know they went in Kansas City scored nine points.

716
00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:12,280
Speaker 3: They you know, they had a few games after Dak

717
00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:15,400
Speaker 3: came back from injury that were very underwhelming and it

718
00:33:15,520 --> 00:33:18,720
Speaker 3: culminated in a playoff loss where Dak was very underwhelming

719
00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:21,280
Speaker 3: and so well, I think Dak is a good quarterback,

720
00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:23,719
Speaker 3: and while I think long term he's a great addition

721
00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:26,640
Speaker 3: to this offense. They have to be careful this week

722
00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 3: not to look at a Lion's defense that you know

723
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:31,920
Speaker 3: has some good parts. Like I think Akuda has played

724
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:34,800
Speaker 3: really well this year. You know they aur Uwari is

725
00:33:34,800 --> 00:33:36,400
Speaker 3: probably going to be back in the lineup. He's a

726
00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:39,400
Speaker 3: guy that got interceptions last year, really struggled this year.

727
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:42,640
Speaker 3: Eight Hutchins is a guy where you know, Dallas's offensive

728
00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:44,680
Speaker 3: live without Tyron Smith, Like, are they going to be

729
00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:47,560
Speaker 3: able to protect there? I do agree with Detroit here.

730
00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:49,560
Speaker 3: I've been a little bit. You know, they should have

731
00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:52,760
Speaker 3: won in Minnesota. They should have probably beat the Seattle Seahawks,

732
00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:54,200
Speaker 3: Like I think that they're better than their one and

733
00:33:54,240 --> 00:33:56,280
Speaker 3: four records suggest. I don't know if they win this

734
00:33:56,280 --> 00:33:59,120
Speaker 3: one in Dallas, but I do think everybody's like, oh,

735
00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:01,360
Speaker 3: they're going to get Dak and the defense is amazing.

736
00:34:01,400 --> 00:34:03,840
Speaker 3: Both those things are true, but I don't necessarily know

737
00:34:03,920 --> 00:34:05,239
Speaker 3: if they work in concert right way.

738
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:08,160
Speaker 1: Guys, football season is here, and if you want to

739
00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:10,960
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748
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Speaker 1: action today, guys, enjoy the football season and let's cash

749
00:34:38,719 --> 00:34:43,040
Speaker 1: some tickets together. Now back to the show. How about

750
00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:45,399
Speaker 1: another game that's going to be pretty big up there

751
00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:48,400
Speaker 1: doesn't so much have the QB controversy behind it, but

752
00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:50,319
Speaker 1: I really want to get your thought on the San

753
00:34:50,360 --> 00:34:53,160
Speaker 1: Francisco forty nine ers with Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm.

754
00:34:53,160 --> 00:34:56,400
Speaker 1: There's clear improvement from when Trey Lance was starting. But

755
00:34:57,440 --> 00:35:00,360
Speaker 1: two and a half point three point dogs now it

756
00:35:00,560 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 1: at home to the Chiefs. Right now, until this goes

757
00:35:03,640 --> 00:35:05,200
Speaker 1: to three and a half, it's still my favorite bet

758
00:35:05,200 --> 00:35:07,240
Speaker 1: of the week on the Chiefs. What are you thinking

759
00:35:07,239 --> 00:35:07,920
Speaker 1: about this game?

760
00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:11,360
Speaker 2: Yeah? I mean Jimmy Garoppolo is the Ron Burgundy of quarterbacks.

761
00:35:11,400 --> 00:35:11,480
Speaker 3: Right.

762
00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:14,400
Speaker 2: He throws exactly what's called no matter what.

763
00:35:14,600 --> 00:35:16,920
Speaker 3: And that's why when you look at the graphs, right,

764
00:35:16,960 --> 00:35:20,839
Speaker 3: there was the graph of you know, completion percentage over

765
00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:24,520
Speaker 3: expected versus EPA. And you know, Jimmy's always off the

766
00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:27,320
Speaker 3: trend line because that offense generates a lot of EPA

767
00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:29,200
Speaker 3: when he throws the ball. But he's not good at

768
00:35:29,200 --> 00:35:32,800
Speaker 3: throwing the ball, meaning like they're just peppering the valuable

769
00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:34,759
Speaker 3: parts of the field and that you know that's going

770
00:35:34,800 --> 00:35:36,960
Speaker 3: to lead to a linebacker getting an interception, that's going

771
00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:39,279
Speaker 3: to lead to tipball, that's that's going to be a

772
00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:41,680
Speaker 3: turnover and stuff. But for the most part, you know,

773
00:35:41,719 --> 00:35:44,520
Speaker 3: they do do effective things on offense now. Weirdly, and

774
00:35:44,600 --> 00:35:46,360
Speaker 3: this was true back when these teams met in the

775
00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:51,319
Speaker 3: Super Bowl in twenty nineteen. The Niners offense running the

776
00:35:51,320 --> 00:35:55,200
Speaker 3: ball is not efficient. It is explosive, Like there's differences there.

777
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:58,080
Speaker 3: They can rip off seventy yard runs with the best

778
00:35:58,080 --> 00:36:00,480
Speaker 3: of them because they have speed at running back, and

779
00:36:00,560 --> 00:36:03,439
Speaker 3: the plays that work are great plays that you get

780
00:36:03,440 --> 00:36:05,759
Speaker 3: two linebackers in the same gap and all that, but

781
00:36:05,800 --> 00:36:08,040
Speaker 3: play for play, they're kind of bad running the ball.

782
00:36:08,480 --> 00:36:10,240
Speaker 3: And you know, when you look at the Chiefs defense

783
00:36:11,040 --> 00:36:13,839
Speaker 3: when they were at their worst, they were soft.

784
00:36:13,600 --> 00:36:15,719
Speaker 2: You know, in run defense. In addition to not being

785
00:36:15,719 --> 00:36:16,640
Speaker 2: able to cover anybody.

786
00:36:16,840 --> 00:36:19,799
Speaker 3: They've gotten rid of that with Chris Jones playing at

787
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:22,120
Speaker 3: top of his game, with Nick Bolton being a real

788
00:36:22,200 --> 00:36:24,680
Speaker 3: enforcer as a linebacker. They get Willy Gay back this week,

789
00:36:24,719 --> 00:36:27,319
Speaker 3: presumably from the suspension. I think the Chiefs are going

790
00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:30,319
Speaker 3: to match up well defensively with the Niners. They get

791
00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:32,480
Speaker 3: Trent McDuffie back too, which will be huge. I think

792
00:36:32,560 --> 00:36:35,320
Speaker 3: as far as covering players, they had poor Joshua Williams,

793
00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:38,600
Speaker 3: a Division two football player against guys last week against

794
00:36:38,640 --> 00:36:41,279
Speaker 3: the Bills, so I do like them matching up there.

795
00:36:41,560 --> 00:36:44,279
Speaker 3: I also think injuries to San Francisco's defense, they might

796
00:36:44,320 --> 00:36:47,719
Speaker 3: get guys back, but those guys are always subject to being,

797
00:36:47,800 --> 00:36:50,239
Speaker 3: you know, nicked up during games. Soft tissue stuff has

798
00:36:50,280 --> 00:36:52,680
Speaker 3: always hurt the Niners, which is why, you know, since

799
00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:56,120
Speaker 3: twenty eleven they've either made the NFC title game or

800
00:36:56,120 --> 00:36:58,600
Speaker 3: had ten or more losses every year but one. It's

801
00:36:58,640 --> 00:37:01,920
Speaker 3: because when everything hits, they're amazing, but when when things

802
00:37:01,960 --> 00:37:03,520
Speaker 3: don't hit, they can fall apart.

803
00:37:04,000 --> 00:37:05,040
Speaker 2: I do agree.

804
00:37:05,200 --> 00:37:07,880
Speaker 3: I think the all spreads for the Chiefs are a

805
00:37:07,880 --> 00:37:09,359
Speaker 3: good bet in this one. Like I think if they

806
00:37:09,360 --> 00:37:11,960
Speaker 3: win this game, it's gonna snowball out of San Francisco's way.

807
00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:15,160
Speaker 3: But I can't see San Francisco winning just because they

808
00:37:15,239 --> 00:37:17,160
Speaker 3: you know, when the right stuff hits for the Niners,

809
00:37:17,160 --> 00:37:17,799
Speaker 3: they're hard to beat.

810
00:37:18,840 --> 00:37:22,400
Speaker 4: I have a follow up question on Ungaroppolo here specifically,

811
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:25,840
Speaker 4: and it touches on kind of a larger question. So

812
00:37:26,239 --> 00:37:31,680
Speaker 4: Garoppolo slash Shanahan, but Garoppolo for his career, he's sixteen

813
00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:34,719
Speaker 4: and four against the spread as an underdog, just you know,

814
00:37:34,760 --> 00:37:39,200
Speaker 4: like general as an underdog now like Shanahan obviously you

815
00:37:39,239 --> 00:37:41,279
Speaker 4: know it's it's tied in with Shanahan. And I think

816
00:37:41,320 --> 00:37:44,480
Speaker 4: Shanahan's like a zig zag type of coach, Like you

817
00:37:44,560 --> 00:37:46,680
Speaker 4: bet on him as an underdog, you bet against him

818
00:37:46,719 --> 00:37:50,480
Speaker 4: when he's favored, and just like historically, like in terms

819
00:37:50,520 --> 00:37:53,080
Speaker 4: of trends, like that has been a profitable strategy. But

820
00:37:54,080 --> 00:37:56,920
Speaker 4: Garoppolo sixteen and four against the spread as an underdog,

821
00:37:57,520 --> 00:37:59,399
Speaker 4: do you put any stock in that? Or Like, when

822
00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:02,720
Speaker 4: you see something like that, does it make you think okay?

823
00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:04,600
Speaker 4: Like I kind of want to dig into the numbers,

824
00:38:04,680 --> 00:38:08,560
Speaker 4: like do they play a little bit differently when they

825
00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:11,480
Speaker 4: are underdogs versus when they're favored or when they have

826
00:38:11,560 --> 00:38:11,919
Speaker 4: a lead.

827
00:38:13,080 --> 00:38:13,840
Speaker 2: It's a great question.

828
00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:15,239
Speaker 3: One of the things that we try to do at

829
00:38:15,280 --> 00:38:17,479
Speaker 3: PFF when we were building out green Line was add

830
00:38:17,520 --> 00:38:19,640
Speaker 3: a new feature to every model every year. And one

831
00:38:19,680 --> 00:38:21,359
Speaker 3: of the things that we always found that we were

832
00:38:21,600 --> 00:38:24,560
Speaker 3: struggling capturing the rams and the forty nine ers against

833
00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:27,520
Speaker 3: the spread for the reasons you talked about. And one

834
00:38:27,520 --> 00:38:29,720
Speaker 3: thing that we built was this thing called scheme uniqueness,

835
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:32,319
Speaker 3: which is basically, take you know the way in which

836
00:38:32,320 --> 00:38:35,120
Speaker 3: teams operate, So how often they run twenty two personnel hoten,

837
00:38:35,120 --> 00:38:38,120
Speaker 3: they run under center, how often do they run screens,

838
00:38:38,160 --> 00:38:41,160
Speaker 3: and like basically anything you can think of, and look

839
00:38:41,160 --> 00:38:43,960
Speaker 3: at how different they are than the average offense. And

840
00:38:44,000 --> 00:38:48,280
Speaker 3: the Niners under Shanahan were like four standard deviations different

841
00:38:48,280 --> 00:38:50,560
Speaker 3: than everybody. After you look at all the principal components,

842
00:38:51,040 --> 00:38:53,360
Speaker 3: the McVeigh rams are about two. And so what we

843
00:38:53,480 --> 00:38:57,719
Speaker 3: found is like this signal is not as strong in

844
00:38:57,760 --> 00:38:59,759
Speaker 3: the markets as it should be. And so when I

845
00:38:59,800 --> 00:39:02,040
Speaker 3: look and again I don't work for PFF anymore, but

846
00:39:02,080 --> 00:39:04,240
Speaker 3: I certainly look at the model up but it's why

847
00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:07,280
Speaker 3: the Chiefs, when you look at you know, they're probably

848
00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:09,200
Speaker 3: what like seven points better than the average team on

849
00:39:09,239 --> 00:39:12,920
Speaker 3: a neutral The Niners are about three. You know, home

850
00:39:12,960 --> 00:39:15,480
Speaker 3: field advantage is not much in San Francisco, so you

851
00:39:15,520 --> 00:39:17,880
Speaker 3: would probably lean Chiefs if it was minus two and

852
00:39:17,920 --> 00:39:20,759
Speaker 3: a half. But there's always that little bit that that

853
00:39:20,840 --> 00:39:23,759
Speaker 3: and and why I don't think they show value on

854
00:39:24,160 --> 00:39:27,040
Speaker 3: you know, a traditional line this week is because there's

855
00:39:27,080 --> 00:39:29,759
Speaker 3: probably a half point just so for how hard it

856
00:39:29,840 --> 00:39:32,719
Speaker 3: is for a team for teams that are traditionally in nickel, right,

857
00:39:32,760 --> 00:39:36,960
Speaker 3: they're traditionally in five defensive backs. You can't play nickel

858
00:39:36,960 --> 00:39:39,000
Speaker 3: against the Niners, right, because they're gonna come at you

859
00:39:39,040 --> 00:39:41,680
Speaker 3: with Jews, check and and Kittle and some of the

860
00:39:41,719 --> 00:39:44,279
Speaker 3: other you know, uh, they're gonna put Trent Williams in

861
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:46,759
Speaker 3: motion when he's healthy. He's not healthy, but like, they're

862
00:39:46,760 --> 00:39:49,160
Speaker 3: gonna do stuff like that, and it's just worth a

863
00:39:49,160 --> 00:39:50,960
Speaker 3: little bit to the to the number. And we were

864
00:39:50,960 --> 00:39:53,680
Speaker 3: able to capture that with scheme uniqueness. And it's one

865
00:39:53,680 --> 00:39:56,280
Speaker 3: of the reasons why we're hardly ever, you know, against

866
00:39:56,280 --> 00:39:59,200
Speaker 3: the Rams, hardly ever against the Niners, because it's just

867
00:39:59,280 --> 00:40:02,920
Speaker 3: a tough cover for teams when you only have a

868
00:40:02,960 --> 00:40:05,400
Speaker 3: week to prepare for an offense and you're gonna be

869
00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:07,160
Speaker 3: playing in your four to three base that you only

870
00:40:07,160 --> 00:40:09,279
Speaker 3: play twenty five percent of the time, You're gonna be

871
00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:11,360
Speaker 3: in that fifty percent of the time against the Niners,

872
00:40:11,440 --> 00:40:13,560
Speaker 3: and it's just going to put players in conflict that

873
00:40:13,600 --> 00:40:15,280
Speaker 3: are normally not in conflict for a team.

874
00:40:16,560 --> 00:40:18,920
Speaker 1: Now, another game here that we I really want to

875
00:40:18,920 --> 00:40:20,719
Speaker 1: get on, not so much a game here as a

876
00:40:20,760 --> 00:40:23,319
Speaker 1: cluster of three teams. We have three five and one

877
00:40:23,360 --> 00:40:26,759
Speaker 1: teams in the league right now, the Bills, the Vikings,

878
00:40:26,760 --> 00:40:29,640
Speaker 1: and the Giants. One of these is very much not

879
00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:35,120
Speaker 1: like the other two. But ignoring the obvious answer, who

880
00:40:35,200 --> 00:40:38,000
Speaker 1: is the bigger fraud here? I mean, obviously Buffalo isn't

881
00:40:38,040 --> 00:40:40,600
Speaker 1: quite as good as the Vikings are Giants. But of

882
00:40:40,640 --> 00:40:43,080
Speaker 1: the Vikings and Giants, what is going on here? It

883
00:40:43,120 --> 00:40:45,359
Speaker 1: feels like the Vikings snuck up to five and one either.

884
00:40:46,320 --> 00:40:50,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say, look, I think the Vikings are

885
00:40:50,480 --> 00:40:53,640
Speaker 3: probably more real than the Giants are, because I actually

886
00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:56,360
Speaker 3: don't think the Vikings are playing that well, and I

887
00:40:56,440 --> 00:40:59,480
Speaker 3: think they have the potential to. Now, the last two years,

888
00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:02,440
Speaker 3: the Vikings started poorly one in three in twenty twenty one,

889
00:41:02,480 --> 00:41:05,440
Speaker 3: one in one in five in twenty twenty and then

890
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:08,040
Speaker 3: eventually they reached five hundred both seasons and that was

891
00:41:08,080 --> 00:41:11,440
Speaker 3: because you know, their quarterback Kirk Cousins went from playing poorly,

892
00:41:11,560 --> 00:41:14,600
Speaker 3: especially in twenty twenty, to playing well and that was

893
00:41:14,719 --> 00:41:17,200
Speaker 3: enough to buoy them. But there was always reinforcements. In

894
00:41:17,200 --> 00:41:20,640
Speaker 3: twenty twenty, Justin Jefferson said, you know, was not a starter,

895
00:41:20,800 --> 00:41:22,839
Speaker 3: was not really playing much. The first two years they

896
00:41:22,840 --> 00:41:26,960
Speaker 3: get Jefferson, they become a better team. In twenty twenty one,

897
00:41:27,040 --> 00:41:29,480
Speaker 3: Christian Dara saw their first round pick sat out the

898
00:41:29,480 --> 00:41:31,840
Speaker 3: first quarter of the season. He comes in, he's a

899
00:41:31,840 --> 00:41:34,240
Speaker 3: pretty damn good left tackle and that helped their offense.

900
00:41:34,880 --> 00:41:37,319
Speaker 3: The hard part I see with this Vikings team is, look,

901
00:41:37,400 --> 00:41:39,320
Speaker 3: they do need to play better. This is the worst

902
00:41:39,320 --> 00:41:42,160
Speaker 3: that Cousins has played since he's been in Minnesota Viking.

903
00:41:42,440 --> 00:41:45,359
Speaker 3: But there aren't reinforcements there. You know, Adam Feelen has

904
00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:47,120
Speaker 3: been playing the whole year and not been very good.

905
00:41:47,400 --> 00:41:50,400
Speaker 3: Dalvin Cook's been mostly fam and famine feast all season.

906
00:41:50,560 --> 00:41:54,719
Speaker 3: The offensive line is healthy. You know, maybe you could say, okay, well,

907
00:41:54,719 --> 00:41:57,480
Speaker 3: maybe he gets more comfortable in the O'Connell offense and

908
00:41:57,560 --> 00:42:00,320
Speaker 3: that's the boost this year. But the Calvary's not for

909
00:42:00,400 --> 00:42:02,759
Speaker 3: the Vikings and they haven't played that well. Here, so

910
00:42:03,120 --> 00:42:05,359
Speaker 3: they need to have played better, I think to maintain it.

911
00:42:05,760 --> 00:42:08,480
Speaker 3: The Giants are who they are. They've had injuries at

912
00:42:08,480 --> 00:42:12,799
Speaker 3: wide receiver. Maybe that'll improve. They've had, you know, they've

913
00:42:12,800 --> 00:42:15,120
Speaker 3: struggled on the offensive line, and they struggle at quarterback.

914
00:42:15,239 --> 00:42:16,080
Speaker 2: Maybe that will improve.

915
00:42:16,160 --> 00:42:19,680
Speaker 3: Defensively, they've had guys miss time, Leonard Williams for example,

916
00:42:19,680 --> 00:42:23,399
Speaker 3: miss time. And at the same time, though, you look

917
00:42:23,440 --> 00:42:25,759
Speaker 3: at that coaching staff and they're dialing things up, like

918
00:42:25,800 --> 00:42:28,799
Speaker 3: they blit seventy percent of the time against Baltimore and

919
00:42:28,840 --> 00:42:30,880
Speaker 3: that worked, and there's an edge there. I think the

920
00:42:30,960 --> 00:42:34,440
Speaker 3: Vikings are being very vanilla. They're being and they're not

921
00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:38,359
Speaker 3: playing particularly well. But if they improve at all with

922
00:42:38,440 --> 00:42:40,640
Speaker 3: their schedule, they should be good. I think the Giants

923
00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:42,560
Speaker 3: are kind of squeezing all the juice already out of

924
00:42:42,560 --> 00:42:44,759
Speaker 3: the orange and they're five and one and a kind

925
00:42:44,760 --> 00:42:46,600
Speaker 3: of a fake five and one, So I don't know

926
00:42:46,600 --> 00:42:48,600
Speaker 3: if they can improve at all. So I think they're

927
00:42:48,600 --> 00:42:51,560
Speaker 3: the bigger fraud in that way. But with the caveats saying,

928
00:42:51,560 --> 00:42:53,879
Speaker 3: I don't know if the Vikings can improve.

929
00:42:54,600 --> 00:42:57,320
Speaker 4: All right, one more question before we get to Thursday

930
00:42:57,400 --> 00:43:00,480
Speaker 4: night football here. So you know, Cincinnati a lot was

931
00:43:00,520 --> 00:43:02,000
Speaker 4: made of the fact that they went to the Super

932
00:43:02,000 --> 00:43:04,600
Speaker 4: Bowl last year, but a lot of sharp people, you know,

933
00:43:04,800 --> 00:43:08,400
Speaker 4: entered this year saying they could even improve as a team,

934
00:43:08,640 --> 00:43:12,319
Speaker 4: as an overall unit and still underperform, you know, kind

935
00:43:12,360 --> 00:43:16,960
Speaker 4: of general fan expectations. And then Atlanta, if I didn't

936
00:43:16,960 --> 00:43:20,520
Speaker 4: have them power rated as the worst team entering the league,

937
00:43:20,560 --> 00:43:24,759
Speaker 4: they were definitely in my bottom three. And you look

938
00:43:24,800 --> 00:43:28,320
Speaker 4: at this game between the two teams in Week seven

939
00:43:29,040 --> 00:43:32,879
Speaker 4: in the offseason. This number was ten a week ago

940
00:43:33,080 --> 00:43:35,720
Speaker 4: on the look ahead it was seven. It opened Sunday

941
00:43:35,800 --> 00:43:38,080
Speaker 4: night at six and a half, and now it is six.

942
00:43:38,680 --> 00:43:41,880
Speaker 4: So we have really seen these teams go in opposite

943
00:43:41,920 --> 00:43:45,800
Speaker 4: directions here. And I've been impressed, not so much by

944
00:43:46,080 --> 00:43:51,520
Speaker 4: what the Falcons are doing or like in with Arthur

945
00:43:51,600 --> 00:43:55,000
Speaker 4: Smith in general, but somehow this offense, even though I

946
00:43:55,000 --> 00:43:58,880
Speaker 4: don't think it's that good, it's been good enough. What

947
00:43:59,160 --> 00:44:01,560
Speaker 4: are you what are you see when you look at

948
00:44:01,600 --> 00:44:02,320
Speaker 4: these two teams.

949
00:44:03,120 --> 00:44:05,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Falcons are just run blocking a lot better

950
00:44:05,280 --> 00:44:07,719
Speaker 3: than what they had been before. Right, They could not

951
00:44:07,840 --> 00:44:10,080
Speaker 3: move the football very well last year and it was

952
00:44:10,080 --> 00:44:11,960
Speaker 3: all on Matt Ryan shoulders. And we've seen with the

953
00:44:11,960 --> 00:44:14,560
Speaker 3: Colts like how hard it is when you put everything

954
00:44:14,560 --> 00:44:17,000
Speaker 3: on that guy's shoulders to really have success. Right, he's

955
00:44:17,000 --> 00:44:19,359
Speaker 3: not at this point in time. He was an MVP

956
00:44:19,480 --> 00:44:21,600
Speaker 3: at one point, but he's not a guy that overcomes

957
00:44:22,000 --> 00:44:25,880
Speaker 3: you know, difficult situations. Now with Mariota, they're running the

958
00:44:25,880 --> 00:44:28,759
Speaker 3: football and early downs. He's part of that effectiveness. He's

959
00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:31,000
Speaker 3: not you know, he's not having to drop be in

960
00:44:31,040 --> 00:44:33,400
Speaker 3: the drop pack passing game that much. And you know,

961
00:44:33,480 --> 00:44:36,160
Speaker 3: to be honest, I think he's performing extremely well. You

962
00:44:36,520 --> 00:44:38,839
Speaker 3: had Drake London and obviously Kyle Pits. I know Kyle

963
00:44:38,840 --> 00:44:41,839
Speaker 3: Pits is very frustrating for the fantasy folks, but he's

964
00:44:41,880 --> 00:44:44,600
Speaker 3: a game changer as far as like moving the numbers.

965
00:44:44,640 --> 00:44:45,560
Speaker 2: On offense.

966
00:44:46,360 --> 00:44:49,960
Speaker 3: Cincinnati weirdly was playing before this week before Andy Dalton

967
00:44:49,960 --> 00:44:52,640
Speaker 3: carved them up, was playing very good defensively. It was

968
00:44:52,719 --> 00:44:55,400
Speaker 3: just on offense where you know, you know, all the

969
00:44:55,440 --> 00:44:58,360
Speaker 3: stuff that the analytics folks preached that, you know, sacks

970
00:44:58,360 --> 00:45:01,120
Speaker 3: are quarterback statistics, so you can and get Lyel Collins

971
00:45:01,200 --> 00:45:02,960
Speaker 3: all you want, but he's still going to struggle with that.

972
00:45:04,000 --> 00:45:06,239
Speaker 3: You know, they had struggled in that department. Now, last

973
00:45:06,239 --> 00:45:09,399
Speaker 3: week they only ran two plays from under center. They

974
00:45:09,400 --> 00:45:12,279
Speaker 3: got away. Like I live in Cincinnati, you know, I

975
00:45:12,360 --> 00:45:14,319
Speaker 3: go to a lot of Bengals games. Nothing takes the

976
00:45:14,360 --> 00:45:16,799
Speaker 3: air out of that stadium like them lining up under

977
00:45:16,800 --> 00:45:18,600
Speaker 3: center and handing the ball to Joe Mixon on first

978
00:45:18,600 --> 00:45:21,000
Speaker 3: and ten like nothing. And last week, you know, they

979
00:45:21,000 --> 00:45:23,000
Speaker 3: got away from that a little bit odd of necessity

980
00:45:23,040 --> 00:45:25,160
Speaker 3: to some degree, But also I think got a choice.

981
00:45:25,360 --> 00:45:28,040
Speaker 3: If they stick with that offense and you know, just

982
00:45:28,120 --> 00:45:30,520
Speaker 3: let Joe Burrow do his thing, and maybe Joe Burrow

983
00:45:30,640 --> 00:45:32,960
Speaker 3: learns to kind of avoid pressure, they can be good.

984
00:45:32,960 --> 00:45:34,920
Speaker 3: And I think the Falcons defense is nowhere close to

985
00:45:34,960 --> 00:45:37,040
Speaker 3: good enough to making them pay for some of his

986
00:45:37,160 --> 00:45:40,400
Speaker 3: bad habits. But make no mistake, the Falcons offense has

987
00:45:40,440 --> 00:45:42,239
Speaker 3: been good enough at moving the football to keep them

988
00:45:42,239 --> 00:45:44,120
Speaker 3: in games. Like I would not lay the points for

989
00:45:44,200 --> 00:45:47,560
Speaker 3: Cincinnati just because, you know, I just think that the

990
00:45:47,600 --> 00:45:49,600
Speaker 3: Falcons are too reliably good on offense.

991
00:45:50,920 --> 00:45:53,520
Speaker 1: Now, Thursday Night is of course coming up, which means

992
00:45:53,520 --> 00:45:55,880
Speaker 1: we have another terrible matchup on tap, but this one

993
00:45:56,280 --> 00:45:58,399
Speaker 1: at least we have some offenses that might be able

994
00:45:58,440 --> 00:46:00,839
Speaker 1: to do something interesting and give us a primetime game

995
00:46:00,920 --> 00:46:04,920
Speaker 1: actually worth watching this season. Plus, the Saints continue their

996
00:46:05,000 --> 00:46:07,360
Speaker 1: run for a bid at history is they take on

997
00:46:07,440 --> 00:46:09,840
Speaker 1: the Cardinals in Leg three of six of the Bird

998
00:46:09,880 --> 00:46:14,120
Speaker 1: Gauntlet this season. They've already gotten two legs down. Can

999
00:46:14,160 --> 00:46:16,640
Speaker 1: they continue this run here? They're one and a half

1000
00:46:16,719 --> 00:46:21,000
Speaker 1: point underdogs in this game in Arizona. But when you

1001
00:46:21,040 --> 00:46:23,920
Speaker 1: talk about scheme, Arizona and Cliff Kingsbury have simply not

1002
00:46:24,000 --> 00:46:27,399
Speaker 1: been doing nearly enough so far this season, and it's

1003
00:46:27,400 --> 00:46:30,440
Speaker 1: clearly impacting that team so far. They sit at two

1004
00:46:30,520 --> 00:46:32,719
Speaker 1: and four right now. What do you make of this

1005
00:46:32,840 --> 00:46:35,040
Speaker 1: Cardinals team? And what are you looking at for Sunday Night?

1006
00:46:35,040 --> 00:46:36,759
Speaker 1: Regardless of who the quarterback for the Saints is.

1007
00:46:37,600 --> 00:46:40,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, the Cardinals are a unique scheme. It's just bad, right, Like,

1008
00:46:40,440 --> 00:46:42,480
Speaker 3: that's the hard part about this whole thing is And

1009
00:46:42,719 --> 00:46:44,319
Speaker 3: they do a pretty good job if you look at

1010
00:46:44,320 --> 00:46:46,480
Speaker 3: like perfectly blocked runs like they do a really good

1011
00:46:46,560 --> 00:46:49,280
Speaker 3: job of actually not making mistakes. I think the quarterbacks

1012
00:46:49,360 --> 00:46:53,120
Speaker 3: being able to run helps them a lot. But the

1013
00:46:53,200 --> 00:46:56,560
Speaker 3: receiver position is just uninspiring. You look at Dorsch and

1014
00:46:58,280 --> 00:47:01,560
Speaker 3: Rondel Moore are two of the four shortest players not

1015
00:47:01,600 --> 00:47:04,319
Speaker 3: only physically but also an average step of target in

1016
00:47:04,400 --> 00:47:07,319
Speaker 3: the NFL among the wide receiver positions. So there's not

1017
00:47:07,400 --> 00:47:10,640
Speaker 3: an imagination there. Robby Anderson might help them, but you

1018
00:47:10,719 --> 00:47:12,759
Speaker 3: have to protect long enough for Robbie Anderson to get

1019
00:47:12,760 --> 00:47:14,640
Speaker 3: down the football field. And you know, even though the

1020
00:47:14,640 --> 00:47:17,120
Speaker 3: Saints have gotten old and kind of bad on defense,

1021
00:47:17,200 --> 00:47:19,400
Speaker 3: like they have guys that can get after the quarterback.

1022
00:47:19,880 --> 00:47:22,480
Speaker 3: And you know, Dalton's played really well. I think he's

1023
00:47:22,480 --> 00:47:25,120
Speaker 3: a top ten PFF graded quarterback. He's put you know,

1024
00:47:25,120 --> 00:47:27,799
Speaker 3: the Vikings on the ropes. He put the uh you know,

1025
00:47:27,920 --> 00:47:30,120
Speaker 3: he put the Bengals on the ropes last week as well.

1026
00:47:31,080 --> 00:47:33,319
Speaker 3: You know, for me, I think this is this is

1027
00:47:33,320 --> 00:47:36,600
Speaker 3: a pass. But if anything, it's a Saints you bet

1028
00:47:36,640 --> 00:47:39,480
Speaker 3: for me, and it's probably Saints first half. If you

1029
00:47:39,560 --> 00:47:41,920
Speaker 3: looked at you know, the Cardinals and how they've operated

1030
00:47:41,960 --> 00:47:44,440
Speaker 3: in the first half, it's been an absolute atrocity. So

1031
00:47:45,280 --> 00:47:49,480
Speaker 3: you know, first quarter under, first half, you know, the Saints.

1032
00:47:49,560 --> 00:47:51,080
Speaker 3: I think those are the only bets you can make.

1033
00:47:51,560 --> 00:47:54,000
Speaker 3: To me, honestly, if I'm and I had a ticket

1034
00:47:54,040 --> 00:47:57,960
Speaker 3: on Arizona against Vegas in Week two, like that is

1035
00:47:58,040 --> 00:48:00,720
Speaker 3: the only hope right as they get behind and so look, Kyler,

1036
00:48:00,719 --> 00:48:02,879
Speaker 3: you're on your own here, and he makes a ton

1037
00:48:02,920 --> 00:48:06,239
Speaker 3: of you know, basically low probability plays. That's the only

1038
00:48:06,280 --> 00:48:09,400
Speaker 3: way I think you can reliably trust Arizona. I was

1039
00:48:09,440 --> 00:48:11,319
Speaker 3: off them early in the season. I didn't think their

1040
00:48:11,320 --> 00:48:14,640
Speaker 3: defense was going to be any good. And they've kind of,

1041
00:48:14,760 --> 00:48:18,480
Speaker 3: you know, they've they've kind of fulfilled that. Even though

1042
00:48:18,560 --> 00:48:20,920
Speaker 3: Vance Joseph, in my opinion, is a good play caller, Like,

1043
00:48:21,120 --> 00:48:23,160
Speaker 3: they just don't have the talent on defense, and then

1044
00:48:23,200 --> 00:48:25,640
Speaker 3: on offense they're an absolute mess. So to me, it's

1045
00:48:25,760 --> 00:48:28,920
Speaker 3: it's New Orleans or nothing, and it's you know, first

1046
00:48:29,000 --> 00:48:31,880
Speaker 3: it's first half, first quarter unders for me because I

1047
00:48:31,920 --> 00:48:33,359
Speaker 3: just don't think that team comes out of the gate

1048
00:48:33,440 --> 00:48:34,000
Speaker 3: very fast.

1049
00:48:35,320 --> 00:48:37,560
Speaker 1: You know, there is one more question that I wanted

1050
00:48:37,560 --> 00:48:40,160
Speaker 1: to get to. I jumped ahead of myself with Thursday night,

1051
00:48:40,200 --> 00:48:42,719
Speaker 1: But circling back to the quarterbacks here, there's one guy

1052
00:48:42,719 --> 00:48:46,680
Speaker 1: that we have to discuss ninth year in the league,

1053
00:48:46,719 --> 00:48:50,200
Speaker 1: Gino Smith. All of a sudden second coming of Tom Brady.

1054
00:48:50,480 --> 00:48:54,200
Speaker 1: What's going on here with the stats? Is this sustainable

1055
00:48:54,200 --> 00:48:57,040
Speaker 1: for him for a full season? And where did this

1056
00:48:57,200 --> 00:48:59,640
Speaker 1: come from? Where there are signs we weren't reading.

1057
00:49:00,200 --> 00:49:02,440
Speaker 3: There weren't signs. I mean, he was terrible last year

1058
00:49:02,440 --> 00:49:04,799
Speaker 3: in relief of Russell Wilson. I know they covered two

1059
00:49:04,800 --> 00:49:06,400
Speaker 3: of the three games that he played, maybe it was

1060
00:49:06,400 --> 00:49:08,520
Speaker 3: all three. I can't I remember. Pittsburgh they covered and

1061
00:49:08,520 --> 00:49:14,040
Speaker 3: then Jacksonville they blew them out. Like look, I think

1062
00:49:14,040 --> 00:49:16,000
Speaker 3: that you look at quarterback problems around the league. You

1063
00:49:16,040 --> 00:49:19,520
Speaker 3: look at Rogers, you look at even like some of

1064
00:49:19,560 --> 00:49:22,960
Speaker 3: the stuff that Mahomes has struggled with, even as being

1065
00:49:22,960 --> 00:49:25,440
Speaker 3: the best quarterback in football, possibly other than Josh Allen.

1066
00:49:26,000 --> 00:49:28,800
Speaker 3: The thing that you know Smith does is he trusts

1067
00:49:28,840 --> 00:49:30,960
Speaker 3: the offense. He hits his back foot, he throws what's

1068
00:49:30,960 --> 00:49:33,560
Speaker 3: called he runs play action. He doesn't try to do

1069
00:49:33,600 --> 00:49:36,840
Speaker 3: too much. And when you pair that with athleticism that

1070
00:49:36,960 --> 00:49:38,800
Speaker 3: is pretty good in an arm that is above average

1071
00:49:38,800 --> 00:49:41,040
Speaker 3: in my opinion, like you can get good results. They

1072
00:49:41,120 --> 00:49:44,080
Speaker 3: got great receivers there. You know, they're probably very happy

1073
00:49:44,080 --> 00:49:48,080
Speaker 3: they kept k Metcalf, you know so. And the offensive

1074
00:49:48,080 --> 00:49:50,160
Speaker 3: line they got Abraham Lucas and Charles Cross in the

1075
00:49:50,200 --> 00:49:52,120
Speaker 3: draft and they're both they both looked very good. And

1076
00:49:52,160 --> 00:49:54,280
Speaker 3: that was you know, tackles they never gave Russell Wilson

1077
00:49:54,320 --> 00:49:57,400
Speaker 3: in the past. So I I you know, it sucks

1078
00:49:57,440 --> 00:50:00,080
Speaker 3: because unfortunately what's gonna happen is he's gonna get a

1079
00:50:00,160 --> 00:50:03,160
Speaker 3: big contract. There's no middle class quarterback contracts in the league.

1080
00:50:03,200 --> 00:50:05,200
Speaker 3: He's gonna get twenty he's gonna get thirty thirty five

1081
00:50:05,239 --> 00:50:06,920
Speaker 3: million a year, and it's not gonna be worth it.

1082
00:50:07,160 --> 00:50:09,400
Speaker 3: But right now I think he's a very plus player

1083
00:50:09,440 --> 00:50:13,000
Speaker 3: for this team. And it's because he's by hooker, by crook.

1084
00:50:13,040 --> 00:50:16,040
Speaker 3: He's learned the lesson of like, trust your offense because

1085
00:50:16,280 --> 00:50:18,600
Speaker 3: you know, there are very rarely, you know, cases where

1086
00:50:18,640 --> 00:50:21,040
Speaker 3: quarterbacks can go off script and be successful, and he's

1087
00:50:21,040 --> 00:50:23,600
Speaker 3: certainly not one of them. But in a league where

1088
00:50:23,640 --> 00:50:26,520
Speaker 3: a lot of quarterbacks are going off script and being unsuccessful,

1089
00:50:26,560 --> 00:50:28,399
Speaker 3: he can stand out and he has so far this year.

1090
00:50:29,280 --> 00:50:31,279
Speaker 1: Now, Matt, how about you for your Thursday night take

1091
00:50:31,400 --> 00:50:32,439
Speaker 1: circling it back here?

1092
00:50:33,280 --> 00:50:37,440
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean this is very cleanly for me going

1093
00:50:37,680 --> 00:50:41,319
Speaker 4: to the Saints. And you know, as Eric said, if

1094
00:50:41,320 --> 00:50:43,279
Speaker 4: you if you want to be on it on this game,

1095
00:50:43,360 --> 00:50:45,239
Speaker 4: I think it's it's Saints or nothing. I have this

1096
00:50:45,320 --> 00:50:47,399
Speaker 4: at a pick them, so, you know, not like a

1097
00:50:47,440 --> 00:50:49,760
Speaker 4: world of value the difference from one and a half

1098
00:50:49,800 --> 00:50:53,680
Speaker 4: to zero, But man, anytime I can bet against Cliff

1099
00:50:53,760 --> 00:50:56,520
Speaker 4: Kingsbury is a home favorite, I'm just I'm gonna do it.

1100
00:50:56,600 --> 00:50:59,120
Speaker 4: He's four and eleven against the spread in that spot,

1101
00:50:59,239 --> 00:51:02,560
Speaker 4: like he's very good as a road underdog, horrible as

1102
00:51:02,600 --> 00:51:07,680
Speaker 4: a home favorite. So I think that they're actually I

1103
00:51:07,719 --> 00:51:11,480
Speaker 4: think he actually does call a little bit differently, call

1104
00:51:11,560 --> 00:51:16,080
Speaker 4: the game differently when they have like a theoretical edge

1105
00:51:16,440 --> 00:51:19,400
Speaker 4: and they go even more conservative versus when they are

1106
00:51:19,480 --> 00:51:21,920
Speaker 4: underdogs and they get down and then it's just hey, Kyler,

1107
00:51:22,000 --> 00:51:24,960
Speaker 4: go do something. And so like when Cliff Kingsbury is

1108
00:51:25,000 --> 00:51:28,080
Speaker 4: doing less, I think that actually is more for the

1109
00:51:28,120 --> 00:51:31,320
Speaker 4: Cardinals offense, and this feels like a game where Cliff

1110
00:51:31,400 --> 00:51:33,359
Speaker 4: Kingsbury is probably going to be doing too much. So

1111
00:51:33,440 --> 00:51:36,279
Speaker 4: I will be very happily going against the Cardinals in

1112
00:51:36,320 --> 00:51:36,760
Speaker 4: this spot.

1113
00:51:37,800 --> 00:51:40,160
Speaker 1: Well, thank you so much for joining us today.

1114
00:51:40,320 --> 00:51:40,480
Speaker 3: Eric.

1115
00:51:40,520 --> 00:51:42,319
Speaker 1: Where can people find you in the great stuff you're

1116
00:51:42,360 --> 00:51:43,360
Speaker 1: doing around the internet.

1117
00:51:43,760 --> 00:51:46,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I'm at Twitter, Instagram, all that kind of stuff.

1118
00:51:46,640 --> 00:51:50,320
Speaker 3: At Eric Eager Underscore, I do do some tiktoks with

1119
00:51:50,920 --> 00:51:54,960
Speaker 3: picks and then my podcast, The Suomer Sports Show with

1120
00:51:55,120 --> 00:51:56,440
Speaker 3: Eric Eager and Thomas de Mittrov.

1121
00:51:57,520 --> 00:51:59,040
Speaker 2: It's supposed to be every single Wednesday.

1122
00:51:59,080 --> 00:52:01,000
Speaker 3: We have a lot of common flick so sometimes we'll

1123
00:52:01,040 --> 00:52:04,920
Speaker 3: go before then but you can find that on YouTube, Spotify, iTunes,

1124
00:52:04,960 --> 00:52:08,319
Speaker 3: all those places, but that's basically where you can find me.

1125
00:52:09,080 --> 00:52:11,520
Speaker 1: Matt actually also has a TikTok, but instead of sports

1126
00:52:11,520 --> 00:52:14,279
Speaker 1: betting content, he's just doing the latest trending dances. But

1127
00:52:14,560 --> 00:52:16,160
Speaker 1: if you guys want to find that, you can find

1128
00:52:16,160 --> 00:52:18,360
Speaker 1: that at Matt at the Oracle as well, and you

1129
00:52:18,400 --> 00:52:21,279
Speaker 1: can follow him on Twitter there of course. Eric, thank

1130
00:52:21,320 --> 00:52:24,760
Speaker 1: you so much for joining us here today. Guys, best

1131
00:52:24,760 --> 00:52:27,759
Speaker 1: of luck this week. We'll see you back here on

1132
00:52:27,840 --> 00:52:30,360
Speaker 1: Thursday to break down the weekend slate in full, but

1133
00:52:30,480 --> 00:52:33,080
Speaker 1: for now, good luck and let's catch those tickets