Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here,
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Speaker 4: But enough with that, let's get to the show.
Speaker 5: Welcome to Counterpoints. You've probably already noticed that Ryan Grimm
Speaker 5: has new hair. Of course, I'm kidding, it's Crystal Crystal
Speaker 5: is here. Ryan's in New York for meetings with his
Speaker 5: intercept team, Crystal Ball.
Speaker 3: Thank you so much for joining Counterpoints.
Speaker 5: I'm really looking forward to having conversations with you on
Speaker 5: some of these incredibly difficult topics that continue to dominate
Speaker 5: the news cycle.
Speaker 1: It is not an understatement to say this is perhaps
Speaker 1: one of the most consequential moments in recent memory, both
Speaker 1: in terms of American politics and global politics. Really on
Speaker 1: the edge of a very precarious, dangerous, and horrible situation.
Speaker 4: Honestly, so, I'm not even going to preview the whole show.
Speaker 1: I can normally do I'm just going to jump in
Speaker 1: because we have President Biden on the ground in Israel
Speaker 1: this morning, arriving just after a horrific Palestinians would say
Speaker 1: attack from Israel. Israel would say it's the Palestinian's fault
Speaker 1: on a hospital.
Speaker 4: I'm going to get into.
Speaker 1: All of this that has left a mass of human
Speaker 1: carnage and devastation in Gaza. I'm going to take you
Speaker 1: through what both sides are saying, what I think about it,
Speaker 1: will go through all of the details, but first I
Speaker 1: wanted to start with what President Biden is saying on
Speaker 1: the ground, expressing belief in Israel's side of affairs for
Speaker 1: what happened with this hospital.
Speaker 6: Let's take a listen, deeply said in an outrage by
Speaker 6: the explosion as a hospital in Kazi yesterday, and based
Speaker 6: on what I've seen, it appears as though it was
Speaker 6: done by the team, not you. But there's a lot
Speaker 6: of people out there not sure. So we've got a
Speaker 6: lot We've going to overcome a lot of things.
Speaker 1: This explosion has already upended President Biden's trip, leading to
Speaker 1: canceled meetings. I'll get to that in a moment, but first,
Speaker 1: the specifics of what happened at that hospital as best
Speaker 1: we can know. And let me just say at the
Speaker 1: forefront ear that Israeli government has a track record of lying.
Speaker 1: Certainly Hamas and Islamic Jihad also have a track record
Speaker 1: of lying. Journalists are not able to get into Gaza
Speaker 1: to independently verify what's going on on the ground. So
Speaker 1: take all of that into account as you're analyzing what
Speaker 1: happened here.
Speaker 4: So, first of all, what we do know. A massive blast.
Speaker 1: Rocked a hospital, actually a Christian hospital in Gaza City.
Speaker 1: It was packed with wounded, those who have been wounded
Speaker 1: in this war. It was also packed with people who
Speaker 1: have been displaced who were seeking shelter there. And we
Speaker 1: are seeing images of a massive civilian to the Gaza
Speaker 1: Health Ministry says hundreds of individuals. You know, the exact
Speaker 1: death toll has also not been independently verified. Let's take
Speaker 1: a look at video that has been verified by news
Speaker 1: agencies of what this blast looked like at the hospital.
Speaker 7: Take a look, you'll.
Speaker 1: Strings so the images they're quite stunning, and the videos
Speaker 1: that have come out afterwards, including a press conference that
Speaker 1: was given at the hospital by some of the doctors
Speaker 1: and staff there, amid The wounded and the dead are
Speaker 1: just beyond words in terms of the horror here. So
Speaker 1: the reports from the Palestinian side, you know, obviously Gaza
Speaker 1: has been under severe attack from Israeli bombs. They of
Speaker 1: course are indicating this was an Israeli bomb, that this
Speaker 1: hospital had been told to evacuate, among other hospitals as well,
Speaker 1: and that they had been directly targeted by an Israeli attack.
Speaker 1: On israel side, they're saying, no, no, this was a
Speaker 1: failed rocket launch attempted to be launched by Islamic Jihad
Speaker 1: that broke into pieces, fell on this hospital and it
Speaker 1: is actually the Palestinians and Islamic Jihad's fault that this occurred.
Speaker 1: Let me show you a few things here. So first
Speaker 1: of all, the initial IDF response, which is part of
Speaker 1: what called into question their side of the story. The
Speaker 1: Israeli Defense Forces, they initially posted what they claimed was
Speaker 1: a video put this up on the screen that on
Speaker 1: the one side, you see this video that they posted.
Speaker 1: They said from the analysis of the operational systems of
Speaker 1: the IDF and enemy rocket barrage was carried out towards Israel,
Speaker 1: which passed through the vicinity of the hospital when it
Speaker 1: was hit. According to intelligence information from several sources we
Speaker 1: had the Islamic Jihad terrorist organization is responsible for the
Speaker 1: failed shooting that hit the hospital. Well, they got called
Speaker 1: out for sharing a video that had time stamps that
Speaker 1: did not correspond to when this explosion occurred, so they
Speaker 1: had to repost this tweet minus the video, which of
Speaker 1: course fueled a lot of skepticism of their account. Also
Speaker 1: the fact that they've been caught lying about some of
Speaker 1: these things in the past. MSNBC reporting on all of
Speaker 1: this and trying to parse through what is very difficult
Speaker 1: to figure out fog of war type of situation, I
Speaker 1: thought they did a good job of expressing why they
Speaker 1: would have skepticism of the Israeli account.
Speaker 4: Let's take a listen to that.
Speaker 8: Well, this is an absolutely classic fog of war situation,
Speaker 8: and we should be really clear NBC News is not
Speaker 8: able to get into Gaza right now. Is Raeli border
Speaker 8: is sealed, the Egyptian border is sealed. Our teams are
Speaker 8: not able to get there and to verify this directly.
Speaker 8: We should also say that the Israeli military at this
Speaker 8: point is not providing any evidence to back up its claims.
Speaker 8: That this was a Palestinian Islamic Jahad rocket. They are
Speaker 8: citing intelligence that they have not yet made public. We
Speaker 8: should also say that this kind of death toll is
Speaker 8: not what you normally associate with Palestinian rockets. These rockets
Speaker 8: are dangerous, they are deadly. They do not tend to
Speaker 8: kill hundreds of people in a single strike.
Speaker 1: So he's referring there to the fact that the rockets,
Speaker 1: both from Hamas and Islamic Jihad are mostly scrapped together
Speaker 1: actually from remnants of Israeli rockets missiles. They do damage,
Speaker 1: they killed, but they don't typically have carnage in the
Speaker 1: hundreds of people. So that's kind of the Palestinian side.
Speaker 1: They say, of course it was Israel. We've been under bombardent,
Speaker 1: they've warned hospitals to evacuate. This amount of carnage is
Speaker 1: inconsistent with anything that Hamas or Islamic Jihad could do.
Speaker 4: Okay, that's the Palestinian side.
Speaker 1: On the Israeli side, that MSNBC reporter at the time,
Speaker 1: he says, israelized and offered any evidence to support their
Speaker 1: story that it was an old Islamic Jihad rocket. Failed
Speaker 1: failed rocket attempt, piece of which broke off and hit
Speaker 1: this hospital. Since then, they have provided what they claim
Speaker 1: to be evidence, both visual drone footage that they say
Speaker 1: shows an impact that is inconsistent with what their Jadam
Speaker 1: missiles would create, the level of crater that those missiles
Speaker 1: would create.
Speaker 4: That's one piece.
Speaker 1: The other thing that they have shared is what they
Speaker 1: claim is a conversation between Hamas militants that are assigning
Speaker 1: blame to Islamic jihad so Emily. You know, one thing
Speaker 1: that we know is really clear is the response throughout
Speaker 1: the region has been one of absolute fury, chaos and anger.
Speaker 4: We can put this up on the screen.
Speaker 1: This is some images yesterday from Romala where you have
Speaker 1: clashes between Palestinians and between police there. There have been
Speaker 1: protests throughout the region, large scale protests throughout the region.
Speaker 4: You have had protests in.
Speaker 1: Front of both Israeli and American embassies in parts of
Speaker 1: the region. And you already have as I mentioned, Biden's
Speaker 1: trip really you know, sort of sent into chaos here
Speaker 1: as a result of what occurred at this hospital. He
Speaker 1: had originally planned to meet with a variety of leaders
Speaker 1: Arab leaders in Jordan in Amman, Jordan.
Speaker 4: As part of this of this trip.
Speaker 1: That trip has been canceled, that meeting, that summit between
Speaker 1: him and those four Arab leaders including Egypt, Palestinian Authority
Speaker 1: and Jordan, those that has been canceled out of anger
Speaker 1: at this explosion. So let me go ahead based on
Speaker 1: all of that. Lane gets you in here for your
Speaker 1: initial reaction.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, no matter what it looks like, the
Speaker 5: death toll is in the hundreds. The Gaza Health Ministry
Speaker 5: is saying that more than five hundred people were killed.
Speaker 5: American media is saying likely hundreds were killed. It's impossible
Speaker 5: to have a clear number right now. But the bottom
Speaker 5: line is you can see in footage from the hospital,
Speaker 5: the carnage, you can see the children, you can see
Speaker 5: the suffering. And this is happening as humanitarian groups as
Speaker 5: the United States and Israel are encouraging people to leave Gaza,
Speaker 5: and when people are congregating at a hospital thinking that
Speaker 5: it's one of the safer places they could be, because
Speaker 5: you know, it's a hospital less likely to be hit,
Speaker 5: even Israel. And there's conflicting information on this. It's another
Speaker 5: kind of interesting point here. Israel maintains that Hamas stores
Speaker 5: munitions under hospitals that Hamas stores munitions and areas that
Speaker 5: are residential, in areas that are really blending the civilian
Speaker 5: population with the military population.
Speaker 3: Israel also said yesterday.
Speaker 5: Though we don't bomb hospitals, we have a bombed hospitals,
Speaker 5: and so people then reasonably, we're congregating at the hospital,
Speaker 5: so conflicting information even in that argument or even within
Speaker 5: that point. But people thought that, you know, in the
Speaker 5: absence of a clear passing through Rafa, for example, they could,
Speaker 5: you know, maybe the safest place they would be as
Speaker 5: at a hospital. A hospital was bombed. And now they're
Speaker 5: still trying. The United States and Israel are still encouraging
Speaker 5: people to leave Gaza. And so just imagine you're one
Speaker 5: of those people right now with children, and you're thinking,
Speaker 5: what do I do? Hamas is telling you to stay.
Speaker 5: Hamas is telling you to stay in your home. They're
Speaker 5: saying things like, we have a couple of options. You
Speaker 5: can you can fight, or you can die in your
Speaker 5: home as a martyr. So this is the information you're
Speaker 5: getting from Hamas. You just want your family to be safe.
Speaker 5: You just want your children to be safe. People who
Speaker 5: were gathering at a hospital were then caught up in
Speaker 5: this horrific carnage of the strike, and nobody has any idea,
Speaker 5: nobody has any clear information.
Speaker 3: As to what happened.
Speaker 5: So my big takeaway right now, Crystal, is basically that
Speaker 5: I'm thinking of the evacuation efforts, the humanitarian efforts. That's
Speaker 5: really scary because nobody has any like incentive, clear incentive
Speaker 5: when they don't know if they're going to be hit
Speaker 5: in safer areas. They don't know, you know, what could
Speaker 5: come next, even at a hospital.
Speaker 1: Well, the problem is there no are no safe areas,
Speaker 1: you know, even after Israel told more than a million
Speaker 1: people to evacuate Gaza, Northern Gaza and Gaza City, which
Speaker 1: is a virtual impossibility. I mean many and many people
Speaker 1: don't have cars, they have nowhere to go. It's not
Speaker 1: like southern Gaza has been safe. It has also been bombed.
Speaker 1: People have also been dying there. They just hit rough
Speaker 1: a crossing once again. So if you are a Palestinian
Speaker 1: and Gaza right now, you know Israel has we know,
Speaker 1: has hit mosques, schools, marketplaces, level department buildings, leveled private
Speaker 1: homes in just this bombing campaign.
Speaker 4: And they may say, oh.
Speaker 1: We don't target hospitals, but putting this hospital.
Speaker 4: Aside, we know in the past they.
Speaker 1: Have and so to claim that they don't ever hit
Speaker 1: medical facilities, and even in this engage they've also hit
Speaker 1: medical facilities is a historical I mean again, there are
Speaker 1: no journalists on the ground to independently verify what happened.
Speaker 1: So keep that in mind. Keep in mind that a
Speaker 1: mass lies and israelize. And I'll give you an example,
Speaker 1: you know, for those who who aren't aware of a
Speaker 1: recent case in which the Israeli government and the IDF
Speaker 1: in particular, we're caught completely fabricating a story something we
Speaker 1: covered here on Breaking Points in the shooting death of
Speaker 1: shrin Abu Akhle, who was a you know, actually an
Speaker 1: American citizen and a journalist who covers was covering what
Speaker 1: was happening in parts of Palestine. And they, originally, the
Speaker 1: IDEF originally said, oh, she was caught in the crossfire
Speaker 1: and was actually Palestinian militants who killed her, and they
Speaker 1: even shared a video that they purported to argue proved
Speaker 1: their case. And it was only months later that they
Speaker 1: were forced, after a lot of journalistic investigation, to admit
Speaker 1: that it was actually IDF bullets that killed Scharine So
Speaker 1: that's why, just for me, you know, personally, based on
Speaker 1: their track record, there is basically no evidence that they
Speaker 1: could offer that I would be convinced by.
Speaker 4: I also am not going to be convinced by.
Speaker 1: Anything that Hamas or Islamic Jahad is saying on the
Speaker 1: ground either. The reason I think it is more likely
Speaker 1: that it was likely and Israeli strike is you know,
Speaker 1: I'm fairly persuaded by the fact that Hamas and Islamic
Speaker 1: Jahad rockets there is no track record of them inflicting
Speaker 1: this level of damage anywhere, not in Gaza, not you know,
Speaker 1: when they're targeting Israelis on the Israeli side of the border.
Speaker 1: So when you add that to the fact that you
Speaker 1: have initially have the idea of putting out a tweet
Speaker 1: that they had to retract and take back because the
Speaker 1: evidence was, you know, was not accurate, and you just
Speaker 1: look at the fact that you know, Gaza is obviously
Speaker 1: being bombed daily by many Israeli bombs, that seems to
Speaker 1: me the most likely case. But in some ways, Emily,
Speaker 1: we were talking a little bit about this, like I
Speaker 1: don't want to say it doesn't matter, but you have
Speaker 1: two sides that are not going to be convinced of
Speaker 1: whatever evidence is offered by the other. The Arab world
Speaker 1: has already erupted, Biden's you know, travel to the region
Speaker 1: already completely upended. You're going to have Israelis thinking one thing,
Speaker 1: You're gonna have Palestinians thinking another thing. You have Americans
Speaker 1: thinking different things. So that's where things stand. I think
Speaker 1: the one thing that we can say is there is
Speaker 1: an awful, horrific, unimaginable amount of carnage and chaos that
Speaker 1: is resulting from this war, which is, you know, just.
Speaker 4: It blows.
Speaker 1: There are no words to describe how awful it is
Speaker 1: what is happening on the ground.
Speaker 5: There such an enormous amount of suffering and such a
Speaker 5: small amount of time. And I think that's probably the
Speaker 5: bleakest part, Crystal, is that there's no end in sight.
Speaker 5: And the final point I want to make before we
Speaker 5: move on, is just about Twitter punditry or Twitter analysis,
Speaker 5: because there are some people, I mean, you wouldn't even
Speaker 5: know if they're doing punditry or analysis, and it does
Speaker 5: remind me of the horrific I twenty four report that
Speaker 5: turned out to be imprecise. Last week, breaking points covered
Speaker 5: a Counterpoints covered it about the alleged forty beheaded babies,
Speaker 5: and then Twitter devolves into the spiral of trying to
Speaker 5: figure out how many babies, whether there were any babies,
Speaker 5: and it becomes in and of itself the sort of
Speaker 5: rhetorical proxy war over you know, media coverage, and once
Speaker 5: again we had that happening, had that happening yesterday, and
Speaker 5: it is I mean, first of all, for Israel to
Speaker 5: be involved in that, I thought was just to be
Speaker 5: putting out videos that you then have to retract. They
Speaker 5: had a spokesman saying things that were, you know, completely
Speaker 5: contrary to where.
Speaker 3: They ended up going down.
Speaker 5: Again, the MSNBC clip was right, fog of war understandable.
Speaker 3: All of that is understandable.
Speaker 5: But for the government actually to be involved in that,
Speaker 5: I thought was really unfortunate and should be a lesson because.
Speaker 3: This is such a powder keg.
Speaker 5: When you have everyone analyzing back and forth on Twitter,
Speaker 5: you don't know if they're professional analysis. Even though they
Speaker 5: are professional analysis. I saw some people who definitely are
Speaker 5: experts in this question of rockets and this question of
Speaker 5: what that might look like. Even geolocators, they're still doing
Speaker 5: it from thousands of miles away and trying to piece
Speaker 5: together this puzzle without crystal. Again, as you mentioned, any
Speaker 5: journalists on the ground with any independent media footage or
Speaker 5: you know, independent media footage that people feel comfortable with
Speaker 5: that we can compare independent media footage to other independent
Speaker 5: media footage or reports.
Speaker 3: All of that stuff.
Speaker 5: There's nobody on the ground, and so we've people thousands
Speaker 5: of miles away spotting off on Twitter, sometimes helpfully, but
Speaker 5: you really have no idea what their credentials and expertise are.
Speaker 5: And all of this is a global powder keg. Even
Speaker 5: the sort of social media conversation led people to swamping embassies,
Speaker 5: and so social media can push people to could push
Speaker 5: certain things over the edge, and we saw a little
Speaker 5: bit of that with the nord Stream pipeline too. It's
Speaker 5: these are really scary times, and I think we've been
Speaker 5: lucky so far that we haven't seen sort of a
Speaker 5: false or confusing social media narrative spill over into serious violence.
Speaker 1: I think that's a really important point. I will say
Speaker 1: Elon stewardship of Twitter has not helped because you have
Speaker 1: all these accounts now with check marks that you have
Speaker 1: no idea if this is a credible sort of source.
Speaker 1: If it's not a credible source, people are giving themselves
Speaker 1: names like you know, definitive Israeli news outlet, and it's
Speaker 1: just some random person who's you know, propagandas who saying
Speaker 1: whatever they want. So it is very, very very difficult
Speaker 1: to sift through and understand what is happening when, especially
Speaker 1: in Gaza, when you do not have independent journalists who
Speaker 1: are able to get in and verify anything that is
Speaker 1: going on there. And I think that's a perfect segue
Speaker 1: into the President's visit there. He's already given a press conference,
Speaker 1: joint press conference with Natan Yahoo. Obviously, you know the
Speaker 1: specter of an American president in Israel right after this
Speaker 1: horrific hospital bobbing at a time. Also when even you know,
Speaker 1: if you accept the Israeli side of what happened there,
Speaker 1: you have, you know, the all of Gaza under complete siege,
Speaker 1: you have a complete humanitarian crisis. The whole area is
Speaker 1: running out of water. There are reports of hospital workers
Speaker 1: having to drink ivy fluids down of bags. There are
Speaker 1: reports of people there who are ha going to drink
Speaker 1: sea water, which obviously is going to make you very sick.
Speaker 4: You cannot do that.
Speaker 1: The other hospitals in the area. The main hospital is
Speaker 1: running out of electricity. You have a whole all of
Speaker 1: Gaza has been has had their electricity shut down. The
Speaker 1: one power plan it long ago ran on a fuel.
Speaker 1: These hospitals are operating on generators. Those are running out
Speaker 1: of fuel now as well. So the situation is as
Speaker 1: dire from a humanitarian perspective as it could possibly be.
Speaker 1: As Biden is there standing next to net and Yahoo.
Speaker 1: And to give you a sense of why I say
Speaker 1: this moment is so fraught and so dangerous and so consequential,
Speaker 1: listen to how Prime Minister net and Yahoo is talking
Speaker 1: about these events and how he sees them as a
Speaker 1: sort of existential civilizational battle.
Speaker 4: Take a listen.
Speaker 9: Tamas are the new Nazis. Tamas is isis in some
Speaker 9: instances worse than Isis. And just as the world united
Speaker 9: to defeat the Nazis, just as the world united to
Speaker 9: defeat Isis, the world has to stand united behind Israel
Speaker 9: to defeat Tamas. This is a part of an access
Speaker 9: of evil of Iran and Rizbala and Ramas. Their goal,
Speaker 9: open goal is to eradicate the state of Israel. The
Speaker 9: open goal of Ramas is to kill as many Jews
Speaker 9: as they could. And the only difference is they would
Speaker 9: have killed every last one of us, murdered every last
Speaker 9: one of us if they could. They just don't have
Speaker 9: the capacity. But they murdered an extraordinary thirteen hundred civilians,
Speaker 9: which in American terms is like many, many, many nine elevens.
Speaker 9: So obviously we must take action to defeat Ramas and
Speaker 9: to ensure that this doesn't happen again. But this is
Speaker 9: not only our battle, it is our common battle, the
Speaker 9: battle of civilization against barbarism. And if it's not stopped here,
Speaker 9: the savagery will reach you very soon and reach the
Speaker 9: entire world.
Speaker 1: I find those words chilling because he's mixing together World
Speaker 1: War two analogies, nine to eleven, War on Terror analogies,
Speaker 1: a rock war, I mean axis of evil, saying this
Speaker 1: is our common fight, this is existential, it's a civilizational struggle.
Speaker 4: Those are words that could help to fuel.
Speaker 1: A broader conflagration, and obviously the region right now an
Speaker 1: absolute powder keg Emily, I.
Speaker 5: Think it's really important we talk about our own government's
Speaker 5: plans as it pertains to Hesblah, because Yahoo mentioned Hesbelah.
Speaker 5: Let's put this next element up on the screen. This
Speaker 5: is from Axios. This is a story that says the
Speaker 5: White House has been discussing the possibility of using military
Speaker 5: force if Hesbela joins the war in Gaza and attacks
Speaker 5: Israel with its huge arsenal of rockets. Three US officials
Speaker 5: and one is Raelly official with knowledge of the situation
Speaker 5: tell Axios there's a lot in this story have been
Speaker 5: so just.
Speaker 3: Like take that.
Speaker 5: Think about that for just a second. That this is,
Speaker 5: to Chrystal's point, fraud. It's a powder keg, and the
Speaker 5: White House is now discussing potential military involvement in this conflict.
Speaker 5: We pay about a fifth of Israel's military budget every year,
Speaker 5: but direct American military involvement. Joe Biden is with NETANYAHUU
Speaker 5: right now on the plane. John Kirby, obviously spokesman, said
Speaker 5: that Biden was there to also quote ask some tough questions.
Speaker 3: I believe is how John Kirby put it.
Speaker 5: And this is also something that Chrystal You're going to
Speaker 5: talk about later in the show, is to kind of
Speaker 5: divide the line, the fine line that Biden himself has
Speaker 5: to walk on some of these questions, and maybe that's
Speaker 5: what he's trying to do with that, but obviously the
Speaker 5: timing with the hospital air strike. I mean, here's more
Speaker 5: from this Axios, this Axios story. They say one of
Speaker 5: the legal justifications for the US using force in case
Speaker 5: of a Hesbala attack would be to protect tens of
Speaker 5: thousands of American citizens who live in Israel. They're quoting
Speaker 5: Jonathan Lord of the Center for New American Security. He says,
Speaker 5: undercommonly held understandings of Article two of the Constitution, the
Speaker 5: President can enter US forces into hostilities to protect Americans abroad. Now,
Speaker 5: more from the Axios report. First of all, I just
Speaker 5: want to say the fact that we've been talking like
Speaker 5: that again, to borrow your word, Crystal, is chilling. Two
Speaker 5: US officials, according to Axios, said Secretary of State Blinket
Speaker 5: told Arab leaders in the region with whom he'd met
Speaker 5: in recent days, the US is quote not fooling around
Speaker 5: by sending so many military assets to the region in
Speaker 5: support of Israel. Okay, Crystal, A lot going on there,
Speaker 5: but obviously the potential for Hesbili's involvement we've seen flare
Speaker 5: up so far, and that's part of again this conversation
Speaker 5: about how fragile this environment is right now, and how
Speaker 5: quickly something can explode into a The reason I continue
Speaker 5: to think about World War one is because you have
Speaker 5: an assassination, right You have like there's a situation, and
Speaker 5: maybe people didn't see it that way at the time,
Speaker 5: but you have a domino effect essentially, and you never
Speaker 5: really know when the domino effect has happened until afterwards
Speaker 5: and you can look back and see all the other
Speaker 5: dominoes had fallen. But you know, the Hesbola involvement, which
Speaker 5: would certainly coalesce these different coalitions and even clearer terms.
Speaker 5: When you have the United States talking like this, you
Speaker 5: have Israel talking like that, you've put in Chi talking
Speaker 5: the way that they're talking, Hamas talking the way that
Speaker 5: they're talking. Things are really really in a bad situation
Speaker 5: right now.
Speaker 4: I mean it's really frightening. It genuinely is.
Speaker 1: And I thought doctor Parsi a few days ago laid out,
Speaker 1: you know, exactly the nightmare scenario of even if and
Speaker 1: this is a big gift, by the way, even if
Speaker 1: the US, Israel, aroan Hezbola don't really want a broader war,
Speaker 1: you could still end up in a broader war.
Speaker 4: And we are already moving along that chain.
Speaker 1: Of US scalation, where with this hospital air strike and
Speaker 1: the images of the women and babies that were killed there,
Speaker 1: the human carminate carnage, you already have this massive swell
Speaker 1: of just sheer anger and outrage across the region. And
Speaker 1: that's what undercut and forced the cancelation of Biden's summit
Speaker 1: with four different Arab leaders that was supposed to happen
Speaker 1: in Jordan, including Mahmudabas of the Palestinian authority. So those
Speaker 1: attempts at diplomacy whatever, you know, however half baked or
Speaker 1: unlikely to succeed they were, Those are debt. You have
Speaker 1: Hesbula worried about, you know, their credibility, and they see.
Speaker 4: This also as an existential fight.
Speaker 1: So far, it seems like they've calculated that they can
Speaker 1: do just enough to show their solidarity with the Palestinians
Speaker 1: without igniting this broader conflict. They're going to be under
Speaker 1: a lot of pressure to do a lot more, and
Speaker 1: they're going to be motivated to do a lot more.
Speaker 1: How does Israel respond to that? Now we have these
Speaker 1: reports that the White House has been actively discussing the
Speaker 1: possibility of using military force if Hesbela does get involved
Speaker 1: and open up this second front in the war. And
Speaker 1: I want everybody to understand what you were saying there, Emily.
Speaker 1: It's important to underscore this. They're not going to go
Speaker 1: to the American people and ask us if we want
Speaker 1: to get involved in a broader war. They're already laying
Speaker 1: out their legal justification for how they could put us
Speaker 1: in this war without ever taking it to the United
Speaker 1: States Congress, let alone the American people.
Speaker 3: It's in the Access report.
Speaker 4: That's exactly right. They's how much of an edge we
Speaker 4: are on right now?
Speaker 5: Yeah, they say this is from the expert accesses quoting.
Speaker 5: If Biden were to make that decision, he'd need to
Speaker 5: notify Congress within forty eight hours under the War Power
Speaker 5: Resolutions Act of nineteen seventy three, that would give Biden
Speaker 5: sixty days to act before Congress has approval. These military
Speaker 5: force would be required. And that's if they go that route.
Speaker 5: We've seen them not go that route before and essentially
Speaker 5: never authorize these types of conflicts. But again, you under
Speaker 5: the War Powers Resolution of nineteen seventy three, he can
Speaker 5: get involved in a conflict that would have years long implications, ramifications,
Speaker 5: and the fact that this isn't outrageous in the Axios report,
Speaker 5: that it isn't something that is treated like it's outrageous.
Speaker 5: And the Axious report tells you exactly where we are
Speaker 5: as a country that's just sort of casual that he
Speaker 5: can take this to Congress within sixty days of getting
Speaker 5: involved in the conflict and then it'll all be fine,
Speaker 5: It'll be constitutional because to your point, Crystal, he could
Speaker 5: get us involved in this and in fact, the signs
Speaker 5: are let's put the next element up in the on
Speaker 5: the screen and no breaking points covered this. Yesterday, the
Speaker 5: Pentagon has ordered two thousand more US troops to be
Speaker 5: ready to deploy to the Middle East. If deployed, they
Speaker 5: would likely not serve in combat roles, but would provide
Speaker 5: advice and medical support to Israeli forces. Official set and
Speaker 5: this news got overshadowed yesterday in the wake of the
Speaker 5: hospital strike. We can put this up. This is the
Speaker 5: next element before This is a press release from Scentcom.
Speaker 5: Centcom Commander arrives in Israel. General Michael Eric Carilla, Commander
Speaker 5: US Central Command, has arrived in Tel Aviv, Israel, to
Speaker 5: conduct high level meetings with Israel's military leadership, including their
Speaker 5: Chief of Defense to gain a clear understanding of Israel's
Speaker 5: defense requirements. Now, again this is worth remembering. The Access
Speaker 5: story did point this out to there are thousands of
Speaker 5: American citizens that live in Israel. We do have strategic
Speaker 5: interests in Israel. All of that is true. There are
Speaker 5: American lives to protect. There are humanitarian reasons to care
Speaker 5: about what's happening, both in Israel in the wake of
Speaker 5: Hamasa's brutal attack and in Gaza as people try to
Speaker 5: evacuate or try to decipher what they should do based
Speaker 5: on what Hamas is telling them to do. Absolutely, thousands
Speaker 5: of American lives on the line. You want to deter
Speaker 5: people from taking action. So that's where you have Lincoln's
Speaker 5: kind of laughable quote where the US, he said, the
Speaker 5: US is not fooling around by putting troops and warships
Speaker 5: and stuff in the region or resources in the region.
Speaker 5: So the tough talk has a strategic purpose, of course,
Speaker 5: but there's obviously also the risk that the tough talk
Speaker 5: amplifies tensions artificially in order to sound tough, and then
Speaker 5: you have to put your money where your mouth is
Speaker 5: in a way that ultimately is not a strategic benefit
Speaker 5: or something that's constitutional or something that the country wants
Speaker 5: at all, and pulling crystal shows most Americans have no
Speaker 5: interest in a military conflict over Palestine at this moment.
Speaker 4: There's so much to say here.
Speaker 1: I mean, the original intent I believe of Biden's trip
Speaker 1: to the region, which occurred before the course of this
Speaker 1: hospital air strike, was to try to act as a deterrent,
Speaker 1: try to talk to the parties involved, try to dissuade.
Speaker 1: I mean, this is what behind the scenes, the White
Speaker 1: House is telling reporters at all kinds of news outlets
Speaker 1: that they're trying to dissuade any of the other actors
Speaker 1: in the region, be It Hesbla, be It Iran, not
Speaker 1: to up the tensions. So the idea by sending these
Speaker 1: two carriers strike groups, and by Biden b Lincoln being
Speaker 1: in the region, Biden traveling to the region, was to
Speaker 1: try to have a deterrent effect on these other actors. Now,
Speaker 1: with the context of this hospital bombing, Biden's trip actively
Speaker 1: exacerbates and in a way of course, fuel on the
Speaker 1: fire of the rage that we already see overflowing in
Speaker 1: this region. And that's why, you know, it's so consequential
Speaker 1: that this meeting that he had planned in Jordan was
Speaker 1: was canceled after the other leaders.
Speaker 4: We can't be part of this.
Speaker 1: Now, there's no way we can talk to you about
Speaker 1: any potential diplomacy.
Speaker 4: Now.
Speaker 1: The other thing that I really think it's important for
Speaker 1: people to bear in minds here in terms of interpreting
Speaker 1: Netnyahu's action in the context in which he's making speeches
Speaker 1: saying access of evil, god forsaken term, you know, comparing
Speaker 1: to Nazis, comparing to Isis, comparing to nine to eleven,
Speaker 1: saying this is a civilizational struggle. Is he is fighting
Speaker 1: for his political life. The majority of Israeli's want him gone.
Speaker 1: They say, after the war is over, we want you out.
Speaker 1: He was already an extraordinary, controversial, divisive figure amongst the
Speaker 1: Israeli public before the dramatic intelligence and military failures that
Speaker 1: you contributed to the massive horrific death toll of Israeli
Speaker 1: civilians in this Hamas attack. You have some ninety plus
Speaker 1: percent who blame him in part for those failures. So
Speaker 1: he is very committed to holding on to power in
Speaker 1: whatever way he possibly can. So this sort of extremely
Speaker 1: belicose rhetoric, I believe he's hoping will trigger this sort
Speaker 1: of rally around the flag effect so that he can
Speaker 1: hold on to power.
Speaker 4: So it adds a level.
Speaker 1: Of additional danger to the situation that you have a
Speaker 1: politician here desperate to hold on to power, who was
Speaker 1: making these decisions and upping the ante with both his
Speaker 1: rhetoric and with his actions. And you have another thing
Speaker 1: I don't want to lose sight off here, and then
Speaker 1: we can move on to what I think we always
Speaker 1: have to keep at the forefront, which is the human beings,
Speaker 1: the innocent human beings who are caught up in the
Speaker 1: horror of this conflict.
Speaker 4: But the other thing to keep.
Speaker 1: In mind here is that net Yahoo and Israeli government
Speaker 1: have admitted they have no plan for the day after.
Speaker 1: Like going in and bombing the hell out of Gaza
Speaker 1: is easy for the Israeli military. It's no problem. They
Speaker 1: can do that all day long, you know, with our
Speaker 1: support and our weaponry and all that they've invested and
Speaker 1: all the reservists that they've called up.
Speaker 4: That is no problem.
Speaker 1: Once you've taken out Hamas, which is both you know,
Speaker 1: military and political leadership, what then, who runs Gaza? Are
Speaker 1: you going to reoccupy who's going to fill that vacuum,
Speaker 1: and they have acknowledged emily that they have no plan
Speaker 1: for that. I mean, it is very like reminiscent of
Speaker 1: Iraq and how we went in with you know, guns
Speaker 1: blazing and mission accomplished.
Speaker 4: Hey, that was the easy part.
Speaker 1: What comes next, of course, I mean we never should
Speaker 1: have been there in the first place. That goes without saying,
Speaker 1: but that's one of the things that the Biden administration
Speaker 1: has been questioning. You know, you mentioned that Biden was saying,
Speaker 1: We're going to ask some tough questions as a friend,
Speaker 1: but they're also unwilling to use any points of real
Speaker 1: like leverage to try to, you know, get at some
Speaker 1: sort of a plan for what this is going to
Speaker 1: look like and what comes next. And that just adds
Speaker 1: to the overall chaos, volatility, and danger of the situation.
Speaker 5: And the sad thing is that they're not wrong that
Speaker 5: there are these coalescing forces of let's say, extremism in
Speaker 5: the region that do believe, in some cases in terrorism
Speaker 5: as sort of a righteous way to clap back at
Speaker 5: Western imperialism, western colonialism, which has been very real in
Speaker 5: their region for a long time. And so it's not
Speaker 5: that it's entirely untrue that they are these coalescing forces
Speaker 5: that wish America, that wish the West harm.
Speaker 3: But when you talk.
Speaker 5: Like that and have absolutely no plan for what steps
Speaker 5: into the power vacuum, I mean, just now we're talking
Speaker 5: about a hospital strike that potentially was committed by Palestinian
Speaker 5: Islamic jihad is one of the potential actors implicated in
Speaker 5: the strike. Hamas is not the only group, and that's
Speaker 5: why Israel obviously in some cases was funneling resources to
Speaker 5: Hamas over the years because they thought it was a
Speaker 5: better alternative if we empower Hamas kind of covertly. We've
Speaker 5: seen the West make that mistake time and time and again,
Speaker 5: not just Israel. Yeah, but if we empower this one group,
Speaker 5: it'll help, you know, stabilize things, et cetera, et cetera,
Speaker 5: And you end up just creating a Frankenstein monster. And
Speaker 5: so when you have no plan as to what happens
Speaker 5: when there's a part There's a story on Al Jazeer's
Speaker 5: homepage this morning asking if Gaza is Israel stalin grod
Speaker 5: But it's you know, you can look at Aleppo, you
Speaker 5: can look at Palujah. What happens in those power vacuums.
Speaker 5: When people are engaged in urban warfare in basically blast
Speaker 5: zones that have just been you know, taken off the
Speaker 5: face of the earth, but people are hiding in different places.
Speaker 5: These are recipes for even more extremism to fester. And
Speaker 5: so I would, you know, be very curious to hear
Speaker 5: what the plan is, but obviously we know that there
Speaker 5: really isn't one at the moment.
Speaker 3: Let's move on Crystal too.
Speaker 5: As you said, the hostage situation, the human cost of
Speaker 5: this conflict that should always be kept at the forefront
Speaker 5: of this. The hostages are also sadly very much a
Speaker 5: political question because they're at the center of the conflict
Speaker 5: over you know, when humanitary and aid is going to
Speaker 5: be applied. There at the center of the conversation between
Speaker 5: the US and Israel about whether Israel should you know,
Speaker 5: lift some parts of the blockade, should allow Gosins Palestinians
Speaker 5: to have certain things water, all of that. It is
Speaker 5: just another horrific part of this that again feels like
Speaker 5: it gets worse by the hour, by the day.
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's exactly right.
Speaker 1: And as you said, Emily, you know, these are innocent
Speaker 1: human beings who are now being used as pawns. Hamas
Speaker 1: intentionally took them to use them as human sacrificial bargaining chips.
Speaker 4: It's horrific. They should be released immediately.
Speaker 1: Richard engel Over at MSNBC spoke with someone from Hamas
Speaker 1: and they indicated that they will only release these hostages
Speaker 1: if Israel stops the bombing.
Speaker 4: Let's take a listen to what he had to say.
Speaker 10: So I spoke to a short while ago a senior
Speaker 10: Hamas official inside Gods, and I asked for claireification. I said,
Speaker 10: are you still willing to release foreign hostages and what
Speaker 10: do you mean that you would do it if the
Speaker 10: field conditions are right? And he said that not only
Speaker 10: are they willing to release all foreign host foreign hostages
Speaker 10: meaning even Israelis who have second passports, but also all
Speaker 10: Israeli civilians if the bombing stop. That's what they mean,
Speaker 10: if the bombing stop. He said that all of the
Speaker 10: civilian hostages, Israeli and foreigner could be released. He said
Speaker 10: in one hour that it would be easy. I pressed
Speaker 10: him out and I said, well, why don't you just
Speaker 10: release them now? If you want to release these hostages,
Speaker 10: just take them to the border of Gaza and let
Speaker 10: them go, take them to a safe place, put them
Speaker 10: in a car, and let them go. He said it
Speaker 10: was impossible. He said it was impossible because Israel is
Speaker 10: bombing everywhere that there is no safe place.
Speaker 4: So there you go. So that's the Hama's line.
Speaker 1: I keep in mind this was before the hospital bombing,
Speaker 1: so you know the Hudos, how that has impacted their
Speaker 1: comments or what they would say at this point on
Speaker 1: the Israeli side, we can put this up on the screen.
Speaker 1: They're saying they will only they're also using these hostages
Speaker 1: in a sense.
Speaker 4: They said they.
Speaker 1: Will only allow humanitarian aid in uh to benefit, you know,
Speaker 1: innocent civilians in Gaza if the hostages are released. So
Speaker 1: they're holding humanitarian aid hostage until these hostages are released.
Speaker 1: So you know, there these are innocent people who were
Speaker 1: taken by Hamas, who are not being used as these
Speaker 1: political pawns. It's an incredibly obviously horrific emotional fraud issue,
Speaker 1: not only for the families of the hostages, some of
Speaker 1: whom are American by the way, but also for Israeli
Speaker 1: society overall. It has emerged as a real dividing line
Speaker 1: in terms of Israelis and the.
Speaker 4: Approach that they're seeking.
Speaker 1: I'll also say, Emily, there was a comment from perhaps
Speaker 1: the most extreme member of Netanyahu's cabinet, which is the
Speaker 1: most extreme government and Israeli history, the National Security Minister
Speaker 1: Itamar Ben Gavier wrote on social media after the hospital
Speaker 1: bowling that hundreds of tons of explosives should enter the
Speaker 1: region instead of aid to the besieged. Gaza's trip, as
Speaker 1: long as there are no Israeli captives left in the
Speaker 1: hands of Palestinian groups.
Speaker 4: So that's where we are.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I was glad you mentioned that because I was
Speaker 5: going to mention that too, And I think that's probably
Speaker 5: something that Joe Biden part of the reason that the
Speaker 5: United States, let's put the political reasons aside, part of
Speaker 5: the reason the United States wanted a presence there, And
Speaker 5: you know, I continue to think it's kind of a
Speaker 5: strange decision for him to actually take the trip. But
Speaker 5: I still think part of those conversations is about the
Speaker 5: Ben Gavier position, because the United States knows it is
Speaker 5: not a tenable position for the US. Again, we mentioned
Speaker 5: this earlier in the show. They give about twenty twenty
Speaker 5: percent of the aid from Americans military aid from Americans
Speaker 5: ends up that's about twenty percent of the Israeli military
Speaker 5: budget every single year, so they know it's not a
Speaker 5: tenable position for them to support Israel while humanitarian aid
Speaker 5: is being basically left out. I mean, this is another
Speaker 5: entirely horrific scene unfolding in Egypt at the Rafa crossing,
Speaker 5: where you have humanitarian aid that is actually piling up
Speaker 5: on the other side of the crossing, gosins that need
Speaker 5: the humanitarian aid, and just there has not been a
Speaker 5: solution to finding a way to get a to b
Speaker 5: whether gosins come across into Egypt, whether the Humanian humanitarian
Speaker 5: aid is brought into Egypt. You have the Bengavir people
Speaker 5: who say the only thing that should be coming through
Speaker 5: is military resources, no humanitarian aid until the hostages are released.
Speaker 5: That is, in some ways the saddest part is that
Speaker 5: for so many people, the help is right there, but
Speaker 5: we have not worked out a diplomatic solution for the
Speaker 5: help to get to them. And so I think, yeah,
Speaker 5: part of the reason Biden is in the area right now,
Speaker 5: and that Blink who was made to wait like eight
Speaker 5: hours by MBS for a meeting the other day, Biden's
Speaker 5: meeting with.
Speaker 3: Jordan, as we mentioned, was canceled. Not going well.
Speaker 5: This diplomacy is not going well for the United States.
Speaker 5: The sort of in person push for diplomacy not going well.
Speaker 5: But part of the reason that they're doing it is
Speaker 5: certainly because that question of humanitarian aid and hostage timing
Speaker 5: is absolutely crucial to getting support for Israel for the
Speaker 5: United States on the world stage, continuing to convince people
Speaker 5: that's sort of the righteous cause as the weeks go on.
Speaker 5: You know, you had unity in the wake of Hamas's barbaric,
Speaker 5: horrific attack. Maintaining international unity in the weeks after when
Speaker 5: you're actually engaged in a war is more difficult. And
Speaker 5: I think the hostages are the negotiations over the hostages
Speaker 5: have become one of the most important, sadly pawns in
Speaker 5: their negotiating right now.
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's humiliating for the US too. I mean,
Speaker 1: we've had Jake Sullivan and Biden talking about, oh, we
Speaker 1: want to get this aid in and we're working on
Speaker 1: a solution. They even told American citizens that they would
Speaker 1: be able to have safe crossing into Egypt. They showed
Speaker 1: up at this border. The border is still closed. In fact,
Speaker 1: the border is still being bombed by Israel as of
Speaker 1: I believe yesterday or two days ago. So, you know,
Speaker 1: for the Biden administration, the United States government supposedly this
Speaker 1: powerful actor to put on these promises of like, oh, yeah,
Speaker 1: we're going to work this down, and it's already been
Speaker 1: worked down. You can show up at the border and
Speaker 1: then have absolutely nothing happened. It just shows our sort
Speaker 1: of complete impotence in the situation, which I don't think is.
Speaker 1: You know, if we were willing to actually use the
Speaker 1: incredible leverage we have in the situation, we wouldn't be
Speaker 1: so impotent, but we're not willing to. And Soccer and
Speaker 1: I have talked about how it's very reminiscent of how
Speaker 1: in Ukraine we also have adopted thisly impotent posture where
Speaker 1: it's like, well, we don't really want Zelenski using weapons
Speaker 1: in Russia, but we're not really going to do anything
Speaker 1: about it either.
Speaker 4: What are you going to do?
Speaker 1: It's a very similar dynamic here. If they actually wanted
Speaker 1: to get humanitarian aid in believe me, they have a
Speaker 1: lot of leverage in the situation and they could make
Speaker 1: it happen. But it has clearly not been the top priority.
Speaker 1: And just to remind people like Palestinians are not al Hamas.
Speaker 1: Almost a majority of people in Gaza, Palestinians and Gaza
Speaker 1: are children. You have hundreds of American citizens who are
Speaker 1: trapped in Gaza right now, which obviously should be a
Speaker 1: priority for an American president, so they are running out
Speaker 1: in addition to the incredible bombing campaign and the horrors
Speaker 1: of that very limited food, water.
Speaker 4: No electricity.
Speaker 1: It is a true humanitarian catastrophe that we are witnessing
Speaker 1: right now with seemingly no end in sight. Emily, I
Speaker 1: think that's maybe a good segue into because there's not
Speaker 1: just international news here. We also have like signs of
Speaker 1: complete failure in chaos here at home, as the House
Speaker 1: continues to go without any sort of speaker, at no
Speaker 1: real end in sight for that situation either.
Speaker 5: Yeah, and you're gonna want to stick around for this
Speaker 5: full block because Crystal towards the end of it has
Speaker 5: added some comic relief that I think is desperately needed
Speaker 5: right now as House Republicans and their conference are flailing
Speaker 5: to replace Kevin McCarthy who was ousted about two weeks
Speaker 5: ago now yesterday, we can put the first element up
Speaker 5: on the screen here, Jim Jordan, chairman of the House
Speaker 5: Judiciary Committee, failed to be elected speaker on the first ballot. Now,
Speaker 5: this was among jordan allies and my own sources expected.
Speaker 5: They did not expect him to succeed on the first ballot. Now,
Speaker 5: this is c SPAN reminding you, if you can't see it,
Speaker 5: if you're listening, that you need two hundred and seventeen
Speaker 5: votes to win the gabble. So there's been conversations about
Speaker 5: Republicans striking a deal with Hakim Jeffreys and sort of
Speaker 5: centrist Democrats to get a centrist Republican speaker. All of
Speaker 5: that has always been sort of pie in the sky.
Speaker 5: But that's because you can get to seventeen theoretically with
Speaker 5: some math that either includes keeping Republicans fully together and
Speaker 5: only losing four votes. Jim Jordan can only afford to
Speaker 5: lose four votes. He lost twenty yesterday, he said. His
Speaker 5: team said, as his spokesman yesterday said, you know, basically,
Speaker 5: the House needs a speaker right now, and was pushing
Speaker 5: for there to be more votes yesterday. So it was
Speaker 5: possible yesterday that we would have seen a marathon voting
Speaker 5: session like we saw in January when Kevin McCarthy went
Speaker 5: through fifteen ballots in a very short period of time.
Speaker 3: That did not happen.
Speaker 5: Instead, they could vote on Jordan again around eleven am.
Speaker 5: Today we can put the next element up on the screen. So,
Speaker 5: as Crystal pointed out, any other week, this would be
Speaker 5: you know what we call the a block in the business,
Speaker 5: this would be the headline that the House continues to
Speaker 5: not have a speaker. The top candidate is you know,
Speaker 5: you can see there he's still falling short of the
Speaker 5: amount of votes that he needs, despite having now a
Speaker 5: whole weekend of campaign. Now look at on the screen
Speaker 5: there are Republicans still voting for Kevin McCarthy for Speaker
Speaker 5: of the House. He got six votes yesterday he didn't
Speaker 5: ask for them. Steve Scalise got seven votes. He also
Speaker 5: wasn't asking for them. Tom Emmer, he's taken himself out
Speaker 5: of the running. He got a vote. Lezeldon, who is
Speaker 5: kind of a new name here, got three votes.
Speaker 3: But look at that.
Speaker 5: I mean, you still have six people voting for McCarthy
Speaker 5: and seven people for Scalise. So prior candidates. And now
Speaker 5: it gets even more interesting because Nuke Gingrich and John
Speaker 5: Bayner have both suggested that the Speaker pro tem Patrick
Speaker 5: McHenry of North Carolina be made temporary speaker, And it
Speaker 5: kind of seems crystal like that's exactly where this is headed.
Speaker 5: That you agree to disagree and have the disagreeable candidate.
Speaker 5: And if that is the case, By the way, I
Speaker 5: don't think most Americans care that much whether or not
Speaker 5: you know who, whether or not the Speaker of the
Speaker 5: House is temporary or if he's permanent. It makes Republicans
Speaker 5: look ridiculous. I think most people are on the same
Speaker 5: page about that. But we already all know the House
Speaker 5: of Representatives is utterly broken, So I'm not sure that
Speaker 5: this is like weighing heavily on the American consciousness. As
Speaker 5: embarrassing and silly as it is, they weren't doing much anyway,
Speaker 5: to be clear. But all that is to say, Matt
Speaker 5: Gates ousted Kevin McCarthy, and if he first of all
Speaker 5: he supported Scalisee as a replacement, but if he ends
Speaker 5: up with McHenry as a replacement, you have both of
Speaker 5: those options. Scalise and McHenry, but especially McHenry, are from
Speaker 5: the perspective of like an anti establishment House Freedomcaucus guy
Speaker 5: like Gates, much worse than McCarthy. McCarthy had spent years
Speaker 5: working with the Freedom Caucus to tell them, I'm listening
Speaker 5: to you. I mean to give you as much as
Speaker 5: I can possibly give you if you continue to support me.
Speaker 3: He was sympathetic to them.
Speaker 5: He was radicalized in some He even kind of told
Speaker 5: me this by the first impeachment that was a really
Speaker 5: big deal for some establishment Republicans like Kevin McCarthy, who
Speaker 5: started to say, maybe I should empower Jim Jordan, maybe
Speaker 5: I should make him, maybe I should start an impeachment inquiry.
Speaker 5: You would never have gotten that out of Patrick McHenry.
Speaker 5: You probably wouldn't have gotten that out of Steve Scalice either,
Speaker 5: So crystal incredibly embarrassing for the Republicans.
Speaker 3: They might vote.
Speaker 5: They might just throw their hands up in the air
Speaker 5: at this point and say, let's agree to disagree and
Speaker 5: let Patrick McHenry continue to do his thing and his
Speaker 5: bow tie.
Speaker 7: See.
Speaker 1: I always thought that that was a real possibility, just
Speaker 1: because I know that the status quo in DC like,
Speaker 1: if they can avoid doing something and making a decision,
Speaker 1: that's normally what happens. So I always thought that that
Speaker 1: was a real possibility that they because immediately the moment
Speaker 1: that this you know, Israel Gaza war began and there
Speaker 1: was this new push almost over you know, almost everybody
Speaker 1: in the House wants to rush more aid to Israel.
Speaker 1: There's a few dissenters were to talk about that in
Speaker 1: just a minute. But I thought, okay. Immediately there were
Speaker 1: all these articles that came out that were like, well,
Speaker 1: I know we said the temporary Speaker can't really do anything,
Speaker 1: but maybe.
Speaker 4: We're going to change our mind on that.
Speaker 1: Maybe we can figure out a way that the temporary
Speaker 1: Speaker can get Israel their aid and get Ukraine their aid.
Speaker 1: And when I saw those machinations happening, I was like, oh,
Speaker 1: this is probably where they're going to end up. They're
Speaker 1: just going to decide we're not going to come to
Speaker 1: an agreement. No one can get the requisite number of votes. Actually,
Speaker 1: Kevin McCarthy had more votes when he was you know,
Speaker 1: in this last go round than Jim Jordan does now.
Speaker 1: So maybe they're just going to fall back on the
Speaker 1: status quo and default to McHenry and you know, make
Speaker 1: that work for them.
Speaker 4: Another piece that I wonder what.
Speaker 1: You think is going to happen in the vote today, Like,
Speaker 1: do you think there's any chance that Jim Jordan can
Speaker 1: actually get across the finish line. I don't have a
Speaker 1: good feel for what the demand or concerns about Jordan are,
Speaker 1: which predominantly come from sort of the more quote unquote
Speaker 1: moderate parts of the Republican caucus, Like is there something
Speaker 1: that he could promise them that would bring them on
Speaker 1: board or do they just feel like, you know, you're
Speaker 1: two partisan, you're too combative, you're too closely associated with
Speaker 1: Trump and all those like election lize nonsense.
Speaker 4: What is the real? What is the rub here with
Speaker 4: regard to Jim Jordan.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think actually the fact that we don't know
Speaker 5: what any of those negotiating chips are publicly, I think
Speaker 5: it's because they're not there.
Speaker 3: And I think that's why there are you.
Speaker 5: Know, we've talked about, you know, how many people are
Speaker 5: never scalised, but how many people are are never Jordan.
Speaker 5: How many Centrists are never Jordan. I think that number
Speaker 5: is pretty high. And essentially, I think there's some resignation
Speaker 5: on both sides understanding that there's basically nothing you can do,
Speaker 5: and that's why Jim Jordan over the weekend. According to
Speaker 5: some sort of centrist Republicans, they say he really pissed
Speaker 5: them off by turning to this new tactic, which was
Speaker 5: a pressure campaign, where as the New York Times put it,
Speaker 5: unleashing the rage of the party's base voters, which is
Speaker 5: in the House of Representatives a really ridiculous and stupid
Speaker 5: thing to say, because they're supposed to represent the party's
Speaker 5: base voter. So for the New York Times to be like, oh,
Speaker 5: that's kind of icky, I thought was sort of telling.
Speaker 5: But all that is to say, there's really nothing from
Speaker 5: my perspective, and that's why Jim Jordan. I've said this
Speaker 5: a couple of times over the past couple of weeks,
Speaker 5: and Crystal, you remember how huge, how towering a figure
Speaker 5: Jim Jordan has been in the kind of conservative movement.
Speaker 5: Even from like so the outside, you can see like
Speaker 5: Jim Jordan is really like an icon to the grassroots
Speaker 5: of the conservative movement. It's a kind of a fantasy
Speaker 5: draft pick. Really, like this is like if you could,
Speaker 5: if you could pick number one in the draft and
Speaker 5: as a speaker of the House, people would pick Jim Jordan.
Speaker 5: And the conservative movement is not at all used to,
Speaker 5: and I know the sense ridiculous people on the left
Speaker 5: is not at all used to seeing that. In the
Speaker 5: House of Representatives, it's John Bayner, it's Paul Ryan, it's
Speaker 5: Kevin McCarthy. You kind of try to work with people,
Speaker 5: but it's never someone who they feel like is really
Speaker 5: their own is like died in the.
Speaker 4: War, Paul Ryan.
Speaker 1: I know people feel different about him now, but during
Speaker 1: the Tea Party era, he was like conservative Pino poster
Speaker 1: boy dude.
Speaker 10: He was, but he.
Speaker 5: He was although people in the conservative movement like didn't
Speaker 5: feel like he was a fellow traveler, even though he
Speaker 5: kind of was a familiar figure. He wasn't like the
Speaker 5: guy who was giving those like fire up speeches at
Speaker 5: sea pack like Jim Jordan.
Speaker 3: He always sort of seemed like he was the sort
Speaker 3: of like.
Speaker 5: A nerdy, cold guy who would you give you budget figures,
Speaker 5: but he wasn't there like in the trenches, yeah, talking
Speaker 5: to activists. So all that is to say, like Jordan
Speaker 5: is that like he is absolutely the model version of that.
Speaker 5: And so that's why there are never Jordan centrist Republicans.
Speaker 5: They don't want to vote for Jim Jordan, knowing that
Speaker 5: he might be just throwing well, I shouldn't say might
Speaker 5: will be throwing bombs every single day. You're constantly getting
Speaker 5: media attention for impeachment stuff, for mortar stuff, and putting
Speaker 5: them in uncomfortable situations. From their perspective, that's not a
Speaker 5: tenable situation, and their districts to have on their record
Speaker 5: that they voted for that. So I don't I don't
Speaker 5: think there's a path for Jordan. Frankly, I kind of
Speaker 5: wish there was a path for Jordan, but I just
Speaker 5: don't think there is.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think Jordan in some ways is the perfect
Speaker 1: emblem of like where the Republican base is right now,
Speaker 1: because he's closely associated with these like you know, bombastic
Speaker 1: pable news, theatrics and getting and really leading the charge
Speaker 1: on like you know, the ben Ghazi hearings and the
Speaker 1: weaponization of government and these like you know, inquiries, partisan
Speaker 1: inquiries into the other side. But also at the same time,
Speaker 1: during his entire time in Congress, like sixteen years, he's
Speaker 1: never actually passed any legislation. But it's to me, again,
Speaker 1: this is perfect. He's like he's got the vibes. He's
Speaker 1: backed up Trump whenever Trump needed backup. He's in there,
Speaker 1: he's mixing it up. He's like got the right affect
Speaker 1: that the basis looking for. And he also was a
Speaker 1: real pioneer in terms of using you.
Speaker 4: Know, like uh, I think didn't was.
Speaker 1: A banner that called him like a legislative terrorist or
Speaker 1: government of terrorsts or something like that, because he's so
Speaker 1: closely associated with all of these like debt sealing type
Speaker 1: hostage taking situations, which at times have been very effective
Speaker 1: in terms of if you, you know, are a conservative
Speaker 1: and you really care about like the budget deficit and
Speaker 1: you want to cut social spending or whatever.
Speaker 4: His you know, I think.
Speaker 1: All of this sucks, but his tactics have been effective
Speaker 1: at times, and that has really radicalized in a sense,
Speaker 1: the way that the House Republican Caucus in particular operates.
Speaker 4: So he's been at the forefront of all of that.
Speaker 1: So in a certain way, he is the perfect emblem
Speaker 1: of that caucus. But you know, it appears like there
Speaker 1: are just just enough people that are like, I don't
Speaker 1: want to be the party that is, you know, the
Speaker 1: party of Trump and the part of party of Jim
Speaker 1: Jordan and his antics and his you know, extremism on
Speaker 1: issues from the budget to also abortion and social issues
Speaker 1: as well. They're worried about their seats in Congress, and
Speaker 1: so that may be enough to derail him. But listen,
Speaker 1: this thing is a long way from over. I don't
Speaker 1: think anyone really knows how it is going to end.
Speaker 1: As I said, I've always thought there was a real
Speaker 1: chance they just sort of like give up and end
Speaker 1: up with mckenry just hanging out there in the slot.
Speaker 1: And it does also make it appear like Matt Gates's
Speaker 1: beef was mostly personal with McCarthy, because if that's what.
Speaker 4: Ends up happening, then he didn't.
Speaker 1: He actually lost a lot in this exchange because they
Speaker 1: had much more sway and had this you know, original
Speaker 1: deal that he made with McCarthy that he got, you know,
Speaker 1: a good bit out of that. He'll no longer have
Speaker 1: those sort of chips he can play going forward.
Speaker 11: Well.
Speaker 5: And this is an argument actually that Jordan has again
Speaker 5: sort of not pioneered, kind of embraced and led, is
Speaker 5: the idea that the House of Representatives is broken. So
Speaker 5: hell yeah, we're going to do an impeachment inquiry because
Speaker 5: Democrats broke it. And I think Matt Gates's best argument
Speaker 5: in his favor is that that's all he did. But
Speaker 5: I think the real he used that as a pretense,
Speaker 5: right to say, we're draining the swamp. The swamp is
Speaker 5: going to consume everything anyway, so let's just throw everything
Speaker 5: into disarray and chaos. It's better than when the House
Speaker 5: is working smoothly. I think it was likely a pretense
Speaker 5: for you know, a personal a grievance. We should mention
Speaker 5: there's a bill being introduced today that would, as Axios
Speaker 5: puts it, temporarily empower McHenry to oversee the passage of legislation.
Speaker 5: So it's possible that they could resign themselves to this
Speaker 5: limbo today that that could just become very clear by
Speaker 5: the end of the day.
Speaker 3: We don't yet know, but.
Speaker 5: It's it's certainly one thing we want to mention here.
Speaker 5: Let's let's roll the tape up of one Democrat floating
Speaker 5: just a delicious suggestion for House Republicans.
Speaker 11: I could see President George W. Bush serving as as
Speaker 11: Speaker of the House. He could come back in, you know,
Speaker 11: And obviously I'm not a real fan of how the
Speaker 11: Iraq War went, but I would think that any reasonable
Speaker 11: Republican would be somebody that Democrats could work with if
Speaker 11: it was part of a system where you didn't have
Speaker 11: five of the most extreme Republicans blocking important legislation.
Speaker 1: You just said a name that I didn't even know
Speaker 1: was in this speaker realm, and that was former President
Speaker 1: George W.
Speaker 11: Bush.
Speaker 4: Is that someone you would support? And b where are
Speaker 4: we in this fight? Is there?
Speaker 7: Are we close to a resolution?
Speaker 11: George W. Bush? I pick him as a traditional Republican
Speaker 11: who isn't doing anything right now. Mitt Romney also comes
Speaker 11: to mind, but he's got Senate seat to fill for
Speaker 11: a while.
Speaker 5: Christ So can I say this is exactly what fuels
Speaker 5: Matt Gates. This pisses people off so much because the
Speaker 5: never Jordan votes are the people that would be like.
Speaker 3: Oh, hey, George W.
Speaker 7: Busch, Oh, okay, yeah, I hear you.
Speaker 5: That's Brad Sherman, Democrat Brad Sherman who suggested that.
Speaker 3: But good comic relief to your point, Chris.
Speaker 1: Thank god George W. Bush is not going to be
Speaker 1: Speaker of the House. It's not a serious proposal, but
Speaker 1: it is very revealing all the way. He can just
Speaker 1: be like, yeah, the Iraq War, it wasn't my cup
Speaker 1: and Seve, but that thought water under the bridge all
Speaker 1: the like torture and war crimes and Getmo and the
Speaker 1: rocky civilians who were.
Speaker 4: Killed and our own men and women.
Speaker 1: And the treasure and the chaos in the Middle East
Speaker 1: and helping it spark isis you know, boys will be boys.
Speaker 1: I guess it's all good. He's the reasonable republicanist. Like
Speaker 1: nothing has made me more insane in the Trump era
Speaker 1: than the rehabilitation of George W. Bush specifically, but all
Speaker 1: of the neo Ki Nicole Wallace over on MSNBC and
Speaker 1: all these like resistance.
Speaker 4: Heroes who all they have to.
Speaker 1: Do is be like, I don't like Trump, and we're like, okay,
Speaker 1: we forgive you for the war crimes. It's fine, don't
Speaker 1: worry about it. Let's all link arms. You're reasonable. That
Speaker 1: is the thing that I hate the most about Donald
Speaker 1: Trump and our politics, because the divide becomes about nothing
Speaker 1: other than him.
Speaker 4: No policy, like the history has wiped.
Speaker 1: Clean, all of our memories are rased. No like forward
Speaker 1: looking policy. I mean, that's the other thing. That's another
Speaker 1: reason why I think Jim Jordan is so perfect is
Speaker 1: because like he has never passed any legislation, and in
Speaker 1: the Trump era, that is like exactly emblematic of where
Speaker 1: we all are that it doesn't have to do with
Speaker 1: policy and delivering for the American people. Is just like
Speaker 1: what do you think about the person of Donald Trump specifically?
Speaker 1: And so since George W. Bush is seen as being
Speaker 1: on the other side, on the correct side of the
Speaker 1: Trump divide, then all of the horrors of his presidency
Speaker 1: are immediately forgiven because he has the right answer on
Speaker 1: one question that apparently matters in American politics.
Speaker 5: Which is, yeah, this question of like civility and decency,
Speaker 5: which doesn't write exactly so war crimes out the window.
Speaker 5: But if he's civil and decent and his friends with Michelle.
Speaker 3: Obama, he is one of the good ones.
Speaker 5: Meanwhile, again, like whatever you think of Matt Gates, he
Speaker 5: is as anti war as a Republican possibly could get.
Speaker 5: Although I don't know where he stands on just bombing
Speaker 5: the shit out of Mexico.
Speaker 3: That's a different question.
Speaker 1: Yet I wouldn't take the I would not label him
Speaker 1: anti war, but as a Republican, he didn't make some
Speaker 1: he did make some good noises about stock trading ban
Speaker 1: I'll give him credit on that one.
Speaker 4: But that's going to anti war.
Speaker 5: And again, like as a Republican can get that's probably
Speaker 5: as anti war and you you'll ever find a Republican.
Speaker 5: So it's it's it's more of a standard of Republican
Speaker 5: anti anti war candidates. But to the point that is
Speaker 5: what really fuels people like Matt Gates is when you
Speaker 5: have that like the warmongerers being the ones that are
Speaker 5: depicted by the left and the centrist right as the
Speaker 5: decent and civil ones. And that's why they come in
Speaker 5: and say, all right, well, I'm blowing Congress up because
Speaker 5: you people suck, And they have a point, speaking though Crystal,
Speaker 5: of just throwing Congress into chaos and disarray. Everything isn't
Speaker 5: quite neat and unified on the Democratic side either at
Speaker 5: the moment. What's happening on the left, on the left
Speaker 5: side of the chamber.
Speaker 1: Yeah, so you know, you've had some and this is
Speaker 1: unusual in American history, you have had some voices of
Speaker 1: dissent from the idea that we will back Israel no
Speaker 1: matter what. Now, in my opinion, no country should be
Speaker 1: given a no matter what blank check, but in particular Israel,
Speaker 1: given their record, I mean even just looking at how
Speaker 1: they're prosecuting this current war, and you know, committing what
Speaker 1: the UN is describing as violations of international law or
Speaker 1: war crimes, specifically with the complete siege. And so even
Speaker 1: before this latest hospital airstrike, which is obviously up the
Speaker 1: emotional level just an infinite amount, you had a little
Speaker 1: bit of dissenting voices, and you had a huge crackdown
Speaker 1: from the White House describing you know, just calls for
Speaker 1: like a ceasefire as repugnant. But now with the civilians
Speaker 1: killed at this hospital, the emotions are so much higher.
Speaker 1: And so the tenor of the discussion between this you know,
Speaker 1: handful of or left members of Congress, the tenor of
Speaker 1: the discussion between them and Joe Biden has significantly changed,
Speaker 1: has gone and put Rashida to Leeb's comments here up
Speaker 1: on the screen. Rashida to Leib, Palestinian American who's been
Speaker 1: one of the you know, I think uh leading voices
Speaker 1: in terms of a different approach on Israel. She says,
Speaker 1: Israel just bombed the Baptist hospital, killing five hundred Palestinians, doctors' children, patients,
Speaker 1: Just like that, Potus, this is what happens when you
Speaker 1: refuse to facilitate a sea and help de escalate your war.
Speaker 1: Destruction only approach has opened my eyes and many Palestinian
Speaker 1: Americans and Muslim Americans like me, we will remember where
Speaker 1: you stood. You had ilhan Omar also tweeting, let's put
Speaker 1: this up on the screen. Bombing a hospital is among
Speaker 1: the gravest of war crimes. The IDF reportedly blowing up
Speaker 1: one of the few places the injured and wounded con
Speaker 1: sik medical treatment and shelter during a war is horrific.
Speaker 1: Potus needs to push for an immediate cease fire to
Speaker 1: end this slaughter. This comes on the heel. Let's put
Speaker 1: this up on the screen. From Ryan's outlet from the intercept.
Speaker 1: On Monday, before the hospital bombing, you had thirteen Democrats
Speaker 1: in the House, led by Corey Bush Rashieta to leave,
Speaker 1: Andre Carson, summer Lee and Dhlia Ramirez introduced a resolution
Speaker 1: urging them Biden administration to call for an immediate de
Speaker 1: escalation and ceasefire in Israel and Occupied Palestine and to
Speaker 1: send humanitarian aid to Gaza. And you also did have
Speaker 1: Bernie Sanders seeming yesterday to call for a cease fire,
Speaker 1: saying these unspeakable crimes must stop now. The bombs and
Speaker 1: missiles from both sides must end. Massive humanitarian aid must
Speaker 1: be rushed to Gaza, and the hostages must be returned
Speaker 1: to their families. So, you know, I think this marks
Speaker 1: a dramatic shift, even though this is just a few
Speaker 1: voices in the Democratic caucus in where the Democratic Party
Speaker 1: has usually been I mean support like undie, unequivocal, unconditional
Speaker 1: support for Israel has long been a bedrock of bipartisan
Speaker 1: policy between Republicans and Democrats. You've had huge money efforts
Speaker 1: that Ryan has covered very closely to.
Speaker 4: Try to make sure enforce.
Speaker 1: Discipline on that question of we will always stand with
Speaker 1: Israel no matter what they do, no matter what comes.
Speaker 1: With huge amounts of American dollars in aid. There has
Speaker 1: been big money efforts to make sure that any candidates
Speaker 1: who deviate from that are of including Summer Lee by
Speaker 1: the way, who's on this resolution, that they get crushed
Speaker 1: in primaries, that they're defeated at the ballot box. And still,
Speaker 1: because you have a much different view of this conflict
Speaker 1: between Israel and Palestine among young Democrats in particular, a
Speaker 1: majority of whom sympathize in general outside of this current
Speaker 1: conflict with Palestinians, you have some of that starting to
Speaker 1: creep in. And I mean, Emily, I'll tell you from
Speaker 1: my personal perspective, I will never forget the fact that
Speaker 1: just calls for a ceasefire from the White House, Kareem
Speaker 1: Jean Pierre called those calls repugnant and shameful. And now
Speaker 1: we see, you know, whoever's side of the story you
Speaker 1: believe with regard to the hospital, now we see just
Speaker 1: the horrors of continuing this bombing campaign with no end
Speaker 1: in sight, the human toll here. And you called a ceasefire,
Speaker 1: calls for a ceasefire and diplomacy, you call them repugnant.
Speaker 1: You banned State Department officials, according to a memo that
Speaker 1: having to Post reported on, from talking about a ceasefire,
Speaker 1: for calling to an end to bloodshed, calling for to
Speaker 1: restore calm. They were are diplomats, were banned from even
Speaker 1: using those words. That is something that I will never
Speaker 1: forget and clearly has been zeered into the consciousness of
Speaker 1: a few of these dissident members of Congress.
Speaker 3: You know, this is a really interesting block to do.
Speaker 5: After our last conversation in the previous block about how
Speaker 5: Republicans are in disarray at the moment, and in the
Speaker 5: belt Way, you know, and I think rightfully, to some
Speaker 5: degree that's treated as kind of an embarrassment, and they
Speaker 5: sort of right flank the House Freedom Caucus guys are
Speaker 5: are being blamed for the chaos, when you know, in reality,
Speaker 5: I think a lot of that blame goes to the establishment,
Speaker 5: which is utterly unmoving in some cases and unwilling to
Speaker 5: work with people, although it wasn't true of Kevin McCarthy Chrystal.
Speaker 5: I've had this conversation with Ryan a few times. I'm
Speaker 5: curious what you think too about the Squad sort of
Speaker 5: taking a page out of the Freedom Caucus book and
Speaker 5: really starting to push the party's leadership in the House
Speaker 5: side a lot harder. Is this something you think that
Speaker 5: could especially because it's unfolding in the context of the
Speaker 5: speakership battle with their Republican colleagues. Is this something you
Speaker 5: think could trigger maybe a more permanent or a more
Speaker 5: serious now that Nancy Pelosi is out. This is one
Speaker 5: of the big dividing lines post Pelosi with Hi King
Speaker 5: Jeffries a more serious divorce between leadership and squad members.
Speaker 1: I doubt it, I mean real, just because I mean
Speaker 1: King Jeffrey's point is an interesting one because Nancy Pelosi
Speaker 1: is very effective at enforcing loyalty and massive fundraiser, you know,
Speaker 1: able to deliver dollars to struggling campaigns. Clearly was very
Speaker 1: effective at getting the aocs of the world in line
Speaker 1: with her agenda and buying into you know what, you'll
Speaker 1: get more with what are they saying.
Speaker 4: More with honey than vinegar? Yeah, exactly. She clearly got
Speaker 4: them to buy into that.
Speaker 1: And so any you know, from AOC originally protesting outside
Speaker 1: of her office to then admitting that she had changed
Speaker 1: her governing philosophy and she was working more the inside game.
Speaker 4: That was very effective.
Speaker 1: Will Kim jefferiesby as effective and enforcing that kind of
Speaker 1: like loyalty and discipline hard to say, but I really
Speaker 1: think the big enforcer of loyalty and discipline is Donald Trump,
Speaker 1: you know, because when it comes down to it and
Speaker 1: I listen, I also.
Speaker 4: Don't want Trump reelected.
Speaker 1: So I'm actually sympathetic to this view of like, well,
Speaker 1: if you are you know, if you dissent, if you're
Speaker 1: criticizing Joe Biden from the left, if you're you know,
Speaker 1: making a big fuss about whatever you're just providing.
Speaker 4: Succer to the Republicans.
Speaker 1: You're helping to re elect Donald Trump, and he's a
Speaker 1: million times worse than Joe Biden. So that's why I'm
Speaker 1: skeptical that as long as Donald Trump is hanging out
Speaker 1: there over everyone's heads, that the fundamental dynamics of the
Speaker 1: political situation the Democratic Party are going to change.
Speaker 4: And we saw this. I don't know if you've got a.
Speaker 1: Chance to watch the results of the focus group that
Speaker 1: we did with Democratic base voters down around Atlanta, and
Speaker 1: when they were talking about Joe Biden, you know, they're like, oh,
Speaker 1: we like it. They have affection for him, they're concerned
Speaker 1: about his age. They don't see him as super competent.
Speaker 1: You know, if somebody use the term like frail, he
Speaker 1: seems soft.
Speaker 4: You know he's not.
Speaker 1: If you're watching the videos of him in Israel, it's
Speaker 1: not an impressive site in terms of.
Speaker 4: His verbal articulation or forcefulness.
Speaker 1: But ultimately they're like, yeah, of course we're going to
Speaker 1: vote for him, and we don't even really want him
Speaker 1: to be challenged in the primary, because yeah, we might
Speaker 1: like other options, but we really want is him to
Speaker 1: step aside because we're worried that a messy democratic process
Speaker 1: may you know, help enable Donald Trump back into the
Speaker 1: White House. Now, I think I understand why they believe that.
Speaker 4: I think that that.
Speaker 1: Is bullshit that you know, the media has persuaded them of,
Speaker 1: because we've seen very you know, very thetriolic primaries on
Speaker 1: the Republican side in twenty sixteen on the Democratic side
Speaker 1: between Hillary and Obama, and those candidates came out better
Speaker 1: and ended up winning the White House.
Speaker 4: So I don't think that that is accurate.
Speaker 1: But that's the Donald Trump is shaping the views of
Speaker 1: Democratic based voters and is very much shaping the views
Speaker 1: of Democrats in Congress as well. So while you see
Speaker 1: in this particular moment, and especially with you know, il
Speaker 1: Han and with Rashida Talib, who still has family in
Speaker 1: you know that she's not allowed to visit, by the way,
Speaker 1: in the occupied territories, it's very visceral, it's very emotional.
Speaker 1: They're sort of breaking that layer of decorum that is
Speaker 1: typically on under their like laying over their even like
Speaker 1: veiled criticisms of the administration. But I don't think that
Speaker 1: that will last. I don't think it will lead to
Speaker 1: a real shift towards sort of freedom Caucus tactics because
Speaker 1: the fundamental dynamics remain the same that Donald Trump is
Speaker 1: the biggest threat, and ultimately they'll do what they need
Speaker 1: to do to be loyal Democratic soldiers to try to
Speaker 1: make sure that he doesn't assent to the White House again.
Speaker 5: This is actually so interesting because my understanding has always
Speaker 5: been that Nancy Pelosi was the wrangler and was just
Speaker 5: very very good at persuading people like AOC to the
Speaker 5: point that you mentioned, and I actually wonder how much
Speaker 5: Nancy Pelosi is still helping Hakim Jeffreyes sort of make
Speaker 5: that argument and make that pitch in the Lower Chamber
Speaker 5: because that's a I mean, that's sort of been baked
Speaker 5: into their identity now thanks to Pelosi, Like they look
Speaker 5: at what the Republicans are doing, and even people in
Speaker 5: the squad who, by the way, I mean the disagreement
Speaker 5: between Rashida Talib and the Josh Gottheimer types of people
Speaker 5: when they're or as Richie Torres like that. They can
Speaker 5: have disagreements over Medicare for all, etcetera, etcetera. This disagreement
Speaker 5: over calls for a cease fire and over questions as
Speaker 5: it pertains to Israel and Palestine has already gotten really ugly,
Speaker 5: and for understandable reasons, and will I mean it's so
Speaker 5: deep and personal that, you know, for them to maintain
Speaker 5: unity in the face of that deep personal disagreement is
Speaker 5: I mean, that's a feat for democratic leadership. That's you know,
Speaker 5: in some ways, a testament to how well they've sold
Speaker 5: the squad. This argument that if you sort of stay coalesced.
Speaker 3: And in line, you will get more wins down.
Speaker 5: The road, I think that's a reasonable argument, although I
Speaker 5: don't think it is the most reasonable argument.
Speaker 3: I don't think it's the winning argument.
Speaker 5: I actually think the Freedom Caucus has proved that Congress
Speaker 5: isn't really doing anything anyway. I mean, they've punted almost
Speaker 5: all of their duties to the executive branch. And you know,
Speaker 5: actually representing the voters who sent you to Congress, whether
Speaker 5: you're in the Bronx or you're in you know, rural Tennessee,
Speaker 5: uh is what you're there to do. And you know,
Speaker 5: if anything, the Hakeem Jefferies and U Nancy Pelosi's are
Speaker 5: standing in the way of that and the interest of
Speaker 5: serving San Francisco and you know, other places. So it's
Speaker 5: it is kind of fascinating those dynamics are, but we'll
Speaker 5: have to see how how it turns out this time.
Speaker 3: I think you're right. I would put my money where
Speaker 3: you're putting your money.
Speaker 1: Well, I mean, think this last comment on this, think
Speaker 1: of even just this issue. So even if you know
Speaker 1: you are very sympathetic not to Hamas but to Palestinians
Speaker 1: and their you know, righteous fight for self determination, and
Speaker 1: that's where your predominant sympathies lie.
Speaker 4: Well, if your choice is.
Speaker 1: Between Trump and Biden, you know, even on this issue,
Speaker 1: even as phorrent as I found, you know, the idea
Speaker 1: of a ceasefire being shot as repugnant isn't even as
Speaker 1: abhorn as I find that, there's no doubt that you'd
Speaker 1: rather have Biden on this issue if you are in
Speaker 1: favor of Palestinian statehood and Palestinian human rights. I mean,
Speaker 1: Trump gave Netanyahu everything he wanted. Now it's fair to
Speaker 1: say also Biden didn't really roll any of that back,
Speaker 1: but he hasn't actively gone and exacerbated the situation.
Speaker 4: Just like greenlit settlements.
Speaker 1: There is at least some talk of like caring about
Speaker 1: the human beings in Palestine, even if it is you know,
Speaker 1: even if it is much less, further, much further down
Speaker 1: the priority list than backing up Israel. So even on
Speaker 1: this one issue, you know, if you put it to
Speaker 1: Rashida's to leave an ilhan Omar, Okay, well, here are
Speaker 1: your two choices. Here what you put like, there's no
Speaker 1: doubt who they'd be on the side of. So that's
Speaker 1: why I think that it doesn't fundamentally shift the dynamics,
Speaker 1: even as emotions are understandably incredibly incredibly high and raw
Speaker 1: and fraud right at the moment.
Speaker 3: So all of this news is unfolding here in Washington,
Speaker 3: d C. And over in the Middle East.
Speaker 5: In Beijing, there is the third annual Belt in Road
Speaker 5: Summit taking place. This is on the tenth anniversary to
Speaker 5: celebrate commemorate the tenth anniversary of the Belt and Rolled initiative,
Speaker 5: which I think has been argued persuasively so that it
Speaker 5: is sort of neo colonial exercise. But we can get
Speaker 5: into that maybe, Crystal. The point is we could put
Speaker 5: the first element up on the screen that Putin and
Speaker 5: Shijinping are meeting today. They met briefly yesterday. We're going
Speaker 5: to put some video of that up on the screen.
Speaker 5: You'll see it rolling as we're talking here. They are,
Speaker 5: so they did a handshake public handshake for the cameras yesterday.
Speaker 5: You can see this rolling on the screen. They are
Speaker 5: then going to have a meeting today. Xi Jinping is
Speaker 5: delivering the keynote address today. He met with Victor Orbon
Speaker 5: yesterday some other world leaders. This is actually Putin's second
Speaker 5: visit outside of Russia since he was indicted by the
Speaker 5: International Criminal Court in March, so his travel is actually
Speaker 5: limited right now because of the war in Ukraine and
Speaker 5: Russian alleged Russian war crimes. He is being treated by
Speaker 5: Kremlin news sources right now as like the guest of
Speaker 5: honor at Xijin Pang's summit. They're showing it, as the
Speaker 5: Washington Post described, kind of his clout on full display
Speaker 5: in the summit, that he is being treated as one
Speaker 5: of the great world leaders by Hijin Ping and being
Speaker 5: honored by Sujin Ping. They of course had what they
Speaker 5: established what they call the no limits friendship. I think
Speaker 5: that was last year that they formally they kind of
Speaker 5: formalized that question of a no limits friendship. They've been
Speaker 5: referring to each other as old friends over the course
Speaker 5: of the summit.
Speaker 3: And Krystal. We talked earlier in the show about you know.
Speaker 5: What I It keeps coming to my mind as just
Speaker 5: the phrase like nineteen thirteen, nineteen thirteen vibes. There's a
Speaker 5: lot of people talking about nineteen thirty vibes. Both of
Speaker 5: them have really criticized Israel in addition to their ally Iran.
Speaker 5: So you have Putin, you have Chijin Ping meeting as
Speaker 5: Joe Biden is in Israel. I mean that split screen
Speaker 5: in and of itself is just absolutely remarkable. You have
Speaker 5: Biden meeting in Tel Aviv with net and Yahoo. You
Speaker 5: have in Beijing Putin and Chijin Pang meeting with some
Speaker 5: other world leaders, and both of those sides are becoming
Speaker 5: more and more stark that question of who is with
Speaker 5: sort of Iran and Hezbollah, as this could potentially turn
Speaker 5: quickly into a military conflict based on the US saying
Speaker 5: they would seriously likely consider boots on the ground military involvement.
Speaker 5: They say, not combat, but military involvement if Hasbola were
Speaker 5: to launch a strike and all of this, I mean
Speaker 5: talk about fraud. Used that word earlier in the short Crystal,
Speaker 5: I think is absolutely perfect. It is such a fragile
Speaker 5: ge political ecosystem right now. So the split screen of
Speaker 5: them talking and projecting she Jimpang and Putin both projecting
Speaker 5: this idea sort of a new generation of world leadership.
Speaker 5: You know, that's America's time is at an end, is
Speaker 5: the line, and it is time for these new countries.
Speaker 5: And China really sees their form of it's this sort
Speaker 5: of authoritarian.
Speaker 3: Mercantile.
Speaker 5: I mean, it's just such a strange blend of different
Speaker 5: government governing philosophies. But they see it as socialism with
Speaker 5: Chinese characteristics, and they think it should kind of lead
Speaker 5: the world going forward.
Speaker 3: Now, all of their.
Speaker 5: Talks of peace and unity and a bright global future
Speaker 5: ring hollow given their own personal records of human rights abuses.
Speaker 3: That isn't to say anybody else is perfect.
Speaker 5: It is to say that them having this conversation when
Speaker 5: Vladimir Putin is implicated and She Jimping, by the way,
Speaker 5: is implication in all kinds of just grave human rights abuses,
Speaker 5: war crimes. I don't think they're really projecting the global leadership.
Speaker 5: They think they are crystal, but it is terrifying. The
Speaker 5: split screen is actually really terrifying because it shows how
Speaker 5: quickly everything can spill over into a literal world war,
Speaker 5: and that's not I actually don't think that's hyperbolic. Right
Speaker 5: now when you have the involvement of Iran and Hezbollah
Speaker 5: on the line with allies that are meeting to project
Speaker 5: their intertwinement and their allieship.
Speaker 1: Right now, American influence in the world is in tatters,
Speaker 1: and I really think it does begin with the Iraq
Speaker 1: War and the war on terror and what we did
Speaker 1: in response to nine to eleven, which you know, makes
Speaker 1: this moment even more horrific that it seems like none
Speaker 1: of those lessons from nine to eleven in our response
Speaker 1: seem to have been learned.
Speaker 5: Which was the goal of al Qaeda. It was the
Speaker 5: undercut American leadership on the global stage.
Speaker 1: Works like a charm, works like a friggin charm, and
Speaker 1: you know, and that's all our own idiot murderers leaders.
Speaker 1: But between the Ukraine war and now the Hamas attacks
Speaker 1: and Israel's assault on Gaza, you have an acceleration of
Speaker 1: the of the realization of a multi polar world. I mean,
Speaker 1: that's what's really come into focus.
Speaker 4: And it's really important to keep in mind.
Speaker 1: Obviously we're Americans and we're consuming American media and you know,
Speaker 1: getting fed like a very Western view of both the
Speaker 1: Ukraine War and of what's happening.
Speaker 4: In Israel right now.
Speaker 1: And you know, the American people overwhelmingly on the side
Speaker 1: of Israel.
Speaker 4: In fact, the American people seem to.
Speaker 1: Be more on the side of Netanyahu than the Israeli
Speaker 1: people even are at this point. So we have this
Speaker 1: particular perspective, and it could be easy to feel like
Speaker 1: that must be shared widely in the world, but it's
Speaker 1: actually not.
Speaker 4: The bulk of the world.
Speaker 1: Sees both of these conflicts very differently, very differently, and
Speaker 1: so that creates a very clear set of dividing lines
Speaker 1: that yes is you know, China and Russia foment this
Speaker 1: this partnership, and you know you see countries like India
Speaker 1: trying to figure out where they want to fit in this,
Speaker 1: and Africa and South America. I mean, there's just a
Speaker 1: very different view of the world that is held by
Speaker 1: the populations in these places, let alone, and you know,
Speaker 1: overwhelmingly in.
Speaker 4: The Middle East. So that's where we are right now.
Speaker 1: And you know, in some ways, as I said, both
Speaker 1: with the Ukraine War, now what's happening in Israel. I
Speaker 1: think America has adopted a posture of learned impotence, of
Speaker 1: unwillingness to use the the you know, incredible leverage of
Speaker 1: American dollars that we could use in the situation I want,
Speaker 1: if we actually wanted to, if we actually cared about
Speaker 1: affecting a particular outcome, we could use that leverage. But
Speaker 1: there seems to be this posture of like learned impotence
Speaker 1: on both sides. And you know, the one thing I
Speaker 1: will say on the other side of this is China's
Speaker 1: got a lot of problems right now with their own
Speaker 1: economic situation. Very hard to know exactly what the numbers are,
Speaker 1: what it looks like, and there have been many, you know,
Speaker 1: dire warnings about what's going to happen in China with
Speaker 1: their economic situation before that have never come to pass.
Speaker 4: But you have a huge real.
Speaker 1: Estate bubble, you've got demographic issues that you've got, you.
Speaker 4: Know, an economic downturn.
Speaker 1: Even the thought was after COVID and after zero COVID
Speaker 1: lockdown there that they'd have this explosion of growth that's
Speaker 1: been quite the opposite.
Speaker 4: So they do have their own issues as well.
Speaker 1: I don't want to pretend like they're this like you know,
Speaker 1: unstoppable giant that's continuing to move.
Speaker 4: Forward, et cetera.
Speaker 1: But I do think you see very clearly, very a
Speaker 1: different world and different power dynamics coming into play right now.
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's a that's a really important point, especially because
Speaker 5: as Chinese exports the United States are declining, and the
Speaker 5: Washington Post points this out too, they're finding an export
Speaker 5: market in Russia, and so that sort of economic partnership
Speaker 5: and that trade relationship is becoming really important. Also, Putin
Speaker 5: has you know, looked to China, Iran and North Korea
Speaker 5: for as the Post puts at drones or tailor shells,
Speaker 5: rockets and other weapons in his ongoing war against Ukraine.
Speaker 5: So their partnership they found, you know, sort of different
Speaker 5: benefits in it so far they already. But that is
Speaker 5: to say that they still have serious, serious problems of
Speaker 5: their own at home. Putin most recently is again the
Speaker 5: Post points this out, failed to broker piece and that
Speaker 5: horrific situation in Armenia and Azerbaijan. So it's not you know,
Speaker 5: it's it's certainly not all rosy for them either, not
Speaker 5: that it really ever would be, but that side by
Speaker 5: side is genuinely.
Speaker 3: You use this word early.
Speaker 5: Let's bring it full circle, chilling as we see things
Speaker 5: unfolding in the Middle East. And I do think it's important,
Speaker 5: uh to recognize that groups like Hesbulah and Hamas have
Speaker 5: this sort of philosophy of global terror. Their their idea
Speaker 5: is not just about Middle East the Middle East. Obviously
Speaker 5: they do have near term priorities in places like Palestine,
Speaker 5: for example, but we've seen that that global reach enacted.
Speaker 3: You know, more than more than a dozen times, you know,
Speaker 3: in the last twenty years.
Speaker 5: So it's it's a frightening reality when you combine that
Speaker 5: with nuclear powers like Russia and China.
Speaker 1: To be sure, I mean, Hamas has always focused on
Speaker 1: national self determination, so it's different from a like ISIS
Speaker 1: or al Qaeda in terms of their their aims and
Speaker 1: their end goals. But you know, when you go back
Speaker 1: and you listen to what we played earlier of Venet
Speaker 1: Yahoo talking up a civilizational conflict between what he describes
Speaker 1: as barbarians in the civilized war world. When you see
Speaker 1: some of the language that's coming out of a run,
Speaker 1: when you see some of the language coming from Hesbula,
Speaker 1: when you see, you know, these meetings high level meetings
Speaker 1: between Russia and China, you know, and you've got an
Speaker 1: American president in Israel as they are, you know, inflicting
Speaker 1: horror on Gaza civilians, Palestinian civilians. You know, the world
Speaker 1: is genuinely at a precipice and you know may come
Speaker 1: through it without a broader conflict, but that is far
Speaker 1: from certain as we sit and as we watch this
Speaker 1: right now. And you know the fact that that meeting
Speaker 1: in Jordan, where there was supposed to be some diplomacy
Speaker 1: between the US acting as best we can as a neutral,
Speaker 1: arbitrary even though we were far from anything approaching that
Speaker 1: with Arab leaders, that that was canceled, and you now
Speaker 1: have very hot and angry protests throughout the region. These
Speaker 1: are these are really troubling signs for what the future
Speaker 1: may help.
Speaker 4: So you know, we'll continue.
Speaker 1: To try to understand it as best we can and
Speaker 1: pars through the varying reports and a very difficult landscape,
Speaker 1: fog of war and all of that.
Speaker 4: And you know, emilyam.
Speaker 1: Grateful to be able to be with you today and
Speaker 1: to all of you guys out there, thank you for
Speaker 1: trusting us to try to sort through very challenging and
Speaker 1: complex situations as they're unfolding.
Speaker 5: Huge shout out to producers Mac and Griffin for all
Speaker 5: of their work on that too, Yeah, and sifting through
Speaker 5: so much footage trying to verify those things because we
Speaker 5: take seriously the responsibility of bringing you guys the best
Speaker 5: and the most accurate information that we possibly can.
Speaker 3: On that note, if you haven't subscribed, please do.
Speaker 5: You can watch the full show of Counterpoints early and
Speaker 5: you get it without any commercial interruptions, the full video.
Speaker 5: If you're not a podcast listener, you get all of it.
Speaker 5: If you're a subscriber, so make sure to do that.
Speaker 5: Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts, hit the notification button
Speaker 5: on YouTube. Crystal, you guys have just been doing incredible
Speaker 5: work throughout this whole conflict. Your coverage has just been
Speaker 5: excellent and you're so busy, so thank you so much
Speaker 5: for taking the time to join the show today.
Speaker 1: It was an honor to get to do it today,
Speaker 1: especially on such a consequential news day. And Sagar and
Speaker 1: I will be back in studio tomorrow with full coverage
Speaker 1: for you, and also we'll be watching what happens today
Speaker 1: if there's any breaking news that we need to do
Speaker 1: a quick video on so I will see you guys tomorrow.
Speaker 1: And oh, actually, Emily, we're going to have you in
Speaker 1: studio with us tomorrow, believe too, So we're gonna have
Speaker 1: a whole gang together for you guys.
Speaker 4: All right, we'll see you then