WEBVTT - Introducing: On the Job, Season 7

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<v Speaker 1>Hey, they're brain stuff listeners. This is not your normal episode.

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<v Speaker 1>We've teamed up with the long running podcast On the

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<v Speaker 1>Job to bring you a few samples of what they do,

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<v Speaker 1>which is engaged with professionals from all kinds of businesses

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<v Speaker 1>about what they do, from teaching to butchery to cybersecurity.

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<v Speaker 1>Through these stories, the team tries to help explain and

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<v Speaker 1>explore different aspects of what's going on in our economy.

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<v Speaker 1>They're sponsoring us to run these samples, and I think

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<v Speaker 1>it's a good fit because you may notice that I

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<v Speaker 1>don't do many episodes about economics here. There's a reason

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<v Speaker 1>for that, Like, if you want an explainer on quantum physics,

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<v Speaker 1>I've got you, But economics is pretty much a mystery

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<v Speaker 1>to me. The first episode of their seventh season just dropped,

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<v Speaker 1>so we're sharing it today. Will feature some previews of

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<v Speaker 1>future episodes in the future, though, if you want to

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<v Speaker 1>hear more or explore their previous seasons, you can find

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<v Speaker 1>On the Job from Express Employment Services wherever you get

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<v Speaker 1>your pot podcasts.

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<v Speaker 2>Welcome to On the Job, as you might be noticing

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<v Speaker 2>if you're a longtime listener, I am not Otis Gray.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Avery Thompson, who you may remember hearing way back

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<v Speaker 2>in season three when I told my story a brush

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<v Speaker 2>with fame. Well, I'm back again and I'm excited to

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<v Speaker 2>take the wheel for our whole. New season of On

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<v Speaker 2>the Job are seventh in fact, so over the next

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<v Speaker 2>eight episodes, I'll be speaking with folks who have finally

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<v Speaker 2>folded up those pandemic sweatpants and are back out there

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<v Speaker 2>doing what they love and keeping America moving forward. This season,

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<v Speaker 2>On the Job is on the move, so come along

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<v Speaker 2>for the ride. It's become a bit of a tradition

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<v Speaker 2>here at On the Job to start the season by

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<v Speaker 2>speaking with an economist, someone who can help us understand

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<v Speaker 2>the current state of our labor market. So to kick

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<v Speaker 2>things off, I gave a call to Raleigh, North Carolina

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<v Speaker 2>to speak with doctor Michael L. Walden, Professor Emeritus of

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<v Speaker 2>North Carolina State University and veteran economist with over forty

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<v Speaker 2>years of expertise. But before you go thinking oh no,

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<v Speaker 2>an economist, hit the fast forward button. You'll be relieved

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<v Speaker 2>to know that I chose a person that understands your

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<v Speaker 2>apprehension and has made it his life's work to help

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<v Speaker 2>people get over that econ phobia.

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<v Speaker 3>Economics is really common sense, and I've made it my

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<v Speaker 3>life's purpose to explain things in ways that people can understand.

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<v Speaker 3>And my wife always teased me, I'll probably expire at

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<v Speaker 3>some meeting where I'm talking, and I'll just slip off

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<v Speaker 3>the podium and go on go to the next level,

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<v Speaker 3>because I do love talking about and explain the economics

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<v Speaker 3>to people.

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<v Speaker 2>You'll move onto that big economic forum in the sky.

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<v Speaker 3>That's right.

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<v Speaker 2>That's right. And more than just being helpful, Doctor Walden

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<v Speaker 2>actually thinks economics can be thrilling.

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<v Speaker 3>Literally, I've written with my wife what we call three

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<v Speaker 3>economic thrillers. Now don't lack because that's usually reaction. I

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<v Speaker 3>get it because people think thrilling economy that they shouldn't

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<v Speaker 3>go together. But I was motivated to that by quite frankly,

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<v Speaker 3>economists use a lot of really boring textbooks, and I

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<v Speaker 3>felt sorry for my students, and I thought if I

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<v Speaker 3>could write something that would teach them economics but would

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<v Speaker 3>be exciting to read. So over the course of several years,

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<v Speaker 3>my wife and I actually wrote three one on macroeconomics,

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<v Speaker 3>one on microeconomics, and one on the financial system, and

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<v Speaker 3>students love them.

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<v Speaker 2>So if you're looking for an exciting summer read. We'll

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<v Speaker 2>have links to doctor Walden's books in the show notes.

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<v Speaker 2>In the meanwhile, I asked them to explain the current

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<v Speaker 2>state of our nation's economic affairs, doctor Walden as the

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<v Speaker 2>hard hitting journalist that I am. I just did a

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<v Speaker 2>quick Google search, and I see that the unemployment rate

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<v Speaker 2>is three point four percent. That's pretty darn low, isn't it.

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<v Speaker 3>It's I think, actually a forty or fifty year low.

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<v Speaker 3>It's been amazing. In fact, we had a pretty rip

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<v Speaker 3>roaring economy prior to the pandemic, and of course the

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<v Speaker 3>pandemic hit, and we economists knew that that was going

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<v Speaker 3>to cause a recession, and it did. We had an

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<v Speaker 3>unemployment rate in March, I believe March or April of

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<v Speaker 3>twenty twenty fourteen percent, highest since the so called Great

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<v Speaker 3>Depression of the nineteen thirties. But once we began to

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<v Speaker 3>open up, which happened at the end of May, and

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<v Speaker 3>once we the federal government started pushing stimulus money in,

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<v Speaker 3>the economy began to quickly recover, and actually we got

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<v Speaker 3>back to pre levels of at least production within another quarter,

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<v Speaker 3>and we've been growing since and we're actually now in

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<v Speaker 3>an economy that's beyond where it was pre pandemic in

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<v Speaker 3>terms of production, also in terms of employment.

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<v Speaker 2>I think we can all agree that a low unemployment

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<v Speaker 2>rate is a good thing, but I have to admit

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<v Speaker 2>that I didn't entirely understand what that looked like out

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<v Speaker 2>in our job market. With the unemployment rate being three

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<v Speaker 2>point four, does that mean that there are no jobs

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<v Speaker 2>available for someone looking or are there lots of jobs

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<v Speaker 2>that we just can't keep filled? Oh?

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<v Speaker 3>No, there right now. A lot of people heard this

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<v Speaker 3>and recently that there were two jobs available for every

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<v Speaker 3>person unemployed. It's actually gotten a little better. Is about

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<v Speaker 3>one point seven jobs available for every person unemployed now.

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<v Speaker 3>Pre pandemic, which was more normal, it was only one

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<v Speaker 3>point two jobs available for every person employed. So yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>there are still signs out there and businesses saying please apply.

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<v Speaker 2>But doctor Walden explained the types of jobs that are

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<v Speaker 2>widely available are different from those that we might have

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<v Speaker 2>seen one or two years ago, because as the world

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<v Speaker 2>returns to some sort of post pandemic normal Americans are

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<v Speaker 2>once again craving community. We want to hang out at

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<v Speaker 2>bars and restaurants again, or maybe take that long overdue

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<v Speaker 2>vacation and therefore the jobs market. Those now hiring signs

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<v Speaker 2>we're seeing all over town reflect the shift in consumer behavior.

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<v Speaker 3>If you look at the latest job of report we

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<v Speaker 3>had for the nation, which came out January, it was

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<v Speaker 3>a very robust report. What we saw is a lot

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<v Speaker 3>of people taking restaurant jobs and personal service jobs, exactly

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<v Speaker 3>the opposite of what happened after the pandemic. And I

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<v Speaker 3>think what's happened here is the tech sector is slowing down.

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<v Speaker 3>So I think that this makes sense to me that

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<v Speaker 3>as a tech sector shed some people, those people, maybe

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<v Speaker 3>some of them are saying, well, I've got to go

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<v Speaker 3>back at least for a while, and maybe those jobs

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<v Speaker 3>that I left.

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<v Speaker 2>Despite the very favorable labor market with nearly two jobs

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<v Speaker 2>available for every job seeker, doctor Wildon suggests that we

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<v Speaker 2>shouldn't get too comfortable employers have a special trick up

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<v Speaker 2>their sleeve to combat this labor shortage, that we should

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<v Speaker 2>all be careful about.

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<v Speaker 3>One thing we're going to see more of to deal

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<v Speaker 3>broadly with the labor shortage is something that we actually

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<v Speaker 3>feared a decade ago, and that is technology.

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<v Speaker 2>In other words, robots, well also automation and AI but yes,

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<v Speaker 2>also robots.

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<v Speaker 3>But I think some of those technologies have been developed,

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<v Speaker 3>they may hit at just the right time.

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<v Speaker 2>And it's no longer just factory jobs and other repetitive

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<v Speaker 2>tasks that are at risk of being replaced.

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<v Speaker 3>Especially now, for example, we're getting AI. AI is being

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<v Speaker 3>developed and then there's some scary things about that, but

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<v Speaker 3>that's going to influence people at more cognitive jobs. So

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<v Speaker 3>I don't think we should get too set in thinking, oh,

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<v Speaker 3>this labor shortage is going to go on. I do

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<v Speaker 3>think eventually we're going to see a lot of this

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<v Speaker 3>technology come in and be used by businesses. So I

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<v Speaker 3>still think people need to worry about getting the skills

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<v Speaker 3>that they need to get in order to get the

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<v Speaker 3>job they want, and just don't be setting back and saying, oh,

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<v Speaker 3>I can get a job anytime I want, because there's

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<v Speaker 3>so many jobs deal I think eventually it'll change.

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<v Speaker 2>So doctor Walden's advice, get that job now, Folks, strike

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<v Speaker 2>while the iron's hot. We'll be right back.

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<v Speaker 4>A strong work ethic takes pride in a job well done.

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<v Speaker 4>This is the kind of person you need. Express employment

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<v Speaker 4>professionals can help because in good times or bad, we

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<v Speaker 4>understand how critical it is to manage your business for

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<v Speaker 4>today with the right workforce. We offer hiring solutions to

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<v Speaker 4>fit changing demands. Express knows Jobs. Get to know Express

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<v Speaker 4>go to expresspros dot com to find a location near you.

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<v Speaker 2>We're back speaking with economist doctor Michael L. Walden, who

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<v Speaker 2>is just reflecting on the very strong post pandemic labor

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<v Speaker 2>market we're enjoying. But doctor Walden also acknowledges that even

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<v Speaker 2>in a blazing labor market that heavily favors the worker,

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<v Speaker 2>sometimes landing that job is easier said than done.

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<v Speaker 3>We are probably an era where what businesses want and

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<v Speaker 3>the skills that are needed are changing more rapidly than

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<v Speaker 3>any time before. And I think, what's going to happen.

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<v Speaker 3>This is not me saying this. The kind of jobs

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<v Speaker 3>that are going to be applied for people and the

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<v Speaker 3>skills that are needed are going to change.

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<v Speaker 2>What doctor Walden is talking about has already been playing

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<v Speaker 2>out far and wide. In just three decades. We've gone

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<v Speaker 2>from dial up modems to nearly every single job in

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<v Speaker 2>America requiring some level of computer proficiency. And we're not

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<v Speaker 2>just talking about office workers. Waitresses are taking our orders

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<v Speaker 2>on iPads, mechanics, are plugging our cars into diagnostic systems,

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<v Speaker 2>metal fabricators are using CNC machines and laser cutters. Even

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<v Speaker 2>our doctors are asking us to open wide, stick out

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<v Speaker 2>our tongues, and zoom in with our camera phones. And

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<v Speaker 2>while the adoption of these technologies has allowed for some

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<v Speaker 2>phenomenal advancements, it also poses some challenges to America's workforce.

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<v Speaker 3>And what I worry about is that we may very

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<v Speaker 3>well be looking down the road at the situation where

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<v Speaker 3>we have a large percentage of people who are say

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<v Speaker 3>middle aged, they've been working at their job for a

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<v Speaker 3>decade or two, they've got family to raise, et cetera,

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<v Speaker 3>who one day wake up and find their job's gone.

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<v Speaker 3>They may be taken over by technology, it may have

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<v Speaker 3>been changed in some way, and they need to get retrained,

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<v Speaker 3>and they don't have time to go to a four

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<v Speaker 3>year college spend four years retraining. So I think we

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<v Speaker 3>need to start looking at programs that get people retrained

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<v Speaker 3>in skills that are needed quickly. I think we need

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<v Speaker 3>to encourage businesses to set up their own training programs

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<v Speaker 3>for people. So I think I think the rapidity and

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<v Speaker 3>what skills are going to are going to change will

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<v Speaker 3>require a much more rapid and efficient educational system.

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<v Speaker 2>So to meet these swiftly changing times, we're going to

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<v Speaker 2>have to get clever about education and retraining. From the

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<v Speaker 2>returning popularity of trade schools to coding boot camps, Americans

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<v Speaker 2>are scrambling to stay ahead and take some agency in

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<v Speaker 2>their future career path. Now, of course, I wouldn't be

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<v Speaker 2>fulfilling my hosting duties here if I spoke to an

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<v Speaker 2>economist and didn't ask him to gaze into his crystal ball.

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<v Speaker 2>So I had doctor Walden with a question that seems

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<v Speaker 2>to be on everyone's minds these days. Will we have

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<v Speaker 2>a recession? And his response was.

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<v Speaker 3>When I'm in the camp that I think we will

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<v Speaker 3>toward the end of the year.

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<v Speaker 2>But before you get too concerned, he added some very

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<v Speaker 2>interesting caveats.

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<v Speaker 3>So there's one idea that economists that have been batting

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<v Speaker 3>around sort of in the background here is that if

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<v Speaker 3>we get a recession, we may actually see businesses not

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<v Speaker 3>layoff anyone, or maybe the layoff would be very minor

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<v Speaker 3>because they can cut their labor costs by simply cutting

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<v Speaker 3>the number of unfilled positions. So the forecast that I've seen,

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<v Speaker 3>even in the worst case scenario is maybe the unemployment

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<v Speaker 3>rate would go up to five percent and five percent

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<v Speaker 3>unemployment now, No, I don't want anyone listening to think

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<v Speaker 3>that I don't care about unemployed people. I do. My

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<v Speaker 3>father working in construction, he was unemployed a couple times,

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<v Speaker 3>always every year, and I remember living through that. But

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<v Speaker 3>if five percent of unemployment when I was in graduate

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<v Speaker 3>school fifty years ago, that was considered full employment. And

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<v Speaker 3>so if we get to five percent employment and that's

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<v Speaker 3>the worst during what I think will be an upcoming recession,

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<v Speaker 3>that would be great. So fingers crossed. If we do

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<v Speaker 3>have a recession, I think there'll be best case scenario,

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<v Speaker 3>there'll be no negative impact on the job market. But

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<v Speaker 3>if it's a normal situation, even minimal impact on the

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<v Speaker 3>job market, and then we'll get back. And then the

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<v Speaker 3>other thing, The other thing the companies are remembering is

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<v Speaker 3>they had to work hard to get the people have

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<v Speaker 3>because it's so competitive, and so a lot of companies

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<v Speaker 3>are reluctant to let people go because they're worried they

0:13:06.480 --> 0:13:08.720
<v Speaker 3>can't get them back when times get back to normal

0:13:08.760 --> 0:13:10.480
<v Speaker 3>and the economy blooms again.

0:13:16.720 --> 0:13:19.640
<v Speaker 2>Only time will tell how things play out, But I

0:13:19.679 --> 0:13:22.840
<v Speaker 2>hope for everyone's sake that doctor Walden is right and

0:13:22.920 --> 0:13:25.440
<v Speaker 2>things won't be as bad as some of these doomsday

0:13:25.440 --> 0:13:29.440
<v Speaker 2>pundits have been predicting that this labor market will continue

0:13:29.520 --> 0:13:34.520
<v Speaker 2>to roar. But then, just as we were wrapping up

0:13:34.559 --> 0:13:38.080
<v Speaker 2>our interview, I noticed hanging in the background of his

0:13:38.160 --> 0:13:42.240
<v Speaker 2>office a long row of baseball caps, all of them

0:13:42.320 --> 0:13:46.400
<v Speaker 2>bearing the logo of the Cincinnati Reds. And if you

0:13:46.480 --> 0:13:50.040
<v Speaker 2>know anything about the Cincinnati Reds, then you know you

0:13:50.240 --> 0:13:53.400
<v Speaker 2>have to be an eternal optimist to keep rooting for them.

0:13:53.679 --> 0:13:56.400
<v Speaker 3>My Reds had a horrible season last year. I think

0:13:56.440 --> 0:13:59.120
<v Speaker 3>they lost one hundred and two games, But I'm always

0:13:59.200 --> 0:14:02.920
<v Speaker 3>optimistic about a lot of young players, so I'm looking

0:14:02.960 --> 0:14:05.360
<v Speaker 3>for good things from the Reds. Maybe not World Series,

0:14:05.360 --> 0:14:06.760
<v Speaker 3>but at least being competitive.

0:14:07.679 --> 0:14:12.080
<v Speaker 2>So maybe we should take doctor Waldon's positive economic outlook

0:14:12.600 --> 0:14:16.600
<v Speaker 2>with a grain of salt. Or maybe he's completely right

0:14:17.200 --> 0:14:21.080
<v Speaker 2>and we'll see the Reds in the playoffs. For on

0:14:21.160 --> 0:14:24.560
<v Speaker 2>the job, I'm Avery Thompson. I'll see you down the road.