Speaker 1: Hey, they're brain stuff listeners. This is not your normal episode.
Speaker 1: We've teamed up with the long running podcast On the
Speaker 1: Job to bring you a few samples of what they do,
Speaker 1: which is engaged with professionals from all kinds of businesses
Speaker 1: about what they do, from teaching to butchery to cybersecurity.
Speaker 1: Through these stories, the team tries to help explain and
Speaker 1: explore different aspects of what's going on in our economy.
Speaker 1: They're sponsoring us to run these samples, and I think
Speaker 1: it's a good fit because you may notice that I
Speaker 1: don't do many episodes about economics here. There's a reason
Speaker 1: for that, Like, if you want an explainer on quantum physics,
Speaker 1: I've got you, But economics is pretty much a mystery
Speaker 1: to me. The first episode of their seventh season just dropped,
Speaker 1: so we're sharing it today. Will feature some previews of
Speaker 1: future episodes in the future, though, if you want to
Speaker 1: hear more or explore their previous seasons, you can find
Speaker 1: On the Job from Express Employment Services wherever you get
Speaker 1: your pot podcasts.
Speaker 2: Welcome to On the Job, as you might be noticing
Speaker 2: if you're a longtime listener, I am not Otis Gray.
Speaker 2: I'm Avery Thompson, who you may remember hearing way back
Speaker 2: in season three when I told my story a brush
Speaker 2: with fame. Well, I'm back again and I'm excited to
Speaker 2: take the wheel for our whole. New season of On
Speaker 2: the Job are seventh in fact, so over the next
Speaker 2: eight episodes, I'll be speaking with folks who have finally
Speaker 2: folded up those pandemic sweatpants and are back out there
Speaker 2: doing what they love and keeping America moving forward. This season,
Speaker 2: On the Job is on the move, so come along
Speaker 2: for the ride. It's become a bit of a tradition
Speaker 2: here at On the Job to start the season by
Speaker 2: speaking with an economist, someone who can help us understand
Speaker 2: the current state of our labor market. So to kick
Speaker 2: things off, I gave a call to Raleigh, North Carolina
Speaker 2: to speak with doctor Michael L. Walden, Professor Emeritus of
Speaker 2: North Carolina State University and veteran economist with over forty
Speaker 2: years of expertise. But before you go thinking oh no,
Speaker 2: an economist, hit the fast forward button. You'll be relieved
Speaker 2: to know that I chose a person that understands your
Speaker 2: apprehension and has made it his life's work to help
Speaker 2: people get over that econ phobia.
Speaker 3: Economics is really common sense, and I've made it my
Speaker 3: life's purpose to explain things in ways that people can understand.
Speaker 3: And my wife always teased me, I'll probably expire at
Speaker 3: some meeting where I'm talking, and I'll just slip off
Speaker 3: the podium and go on go to the next level,
Speaker 3: because I do love talking about and explain the economics
Speaker 3: to people.
Speaker 2: You'll move onto that big economic forum in the sky.
Speaker 3: That's right.
Speaker 2: That's right. And more than just being helpful, Doctor Walden
Speaker 2: actually thinks economics can be thrilling.
Speaker 3: Literally, I've written with my wife what we call three
Speaker 3: economic thrillers. Now don't lack because that's usually reaction. I
Speaker 3: get it because people think thrilling economy that they shouldn't
Speaker 3: go together. But I was motivated to that by quite frankly,
Speaker 3: economists use a lot of really boring textbooks, and I
Speaker 3: felt sorry for my students, and I thought if I
Speaker 3: could write something that would teach them economics but would
Speaker 3: be exciting to read. So over the course of several years,
Speaker 3: my wife and I actually wrote three one on macroeconomics,
Speaker 3: one on microeconomics, and one on the financial system, and
Speaker 3: students love them.
Speaker 2: So if you're looking for an exciting summer read. We'll
Speaker 2: have links to doctor Walden's books in the show notes.
Speaker 2: In the meanwhile, I asked them to explain the current
Speaker 2: state of our nation's economic affairs, doctor Walden as the
Speaker 2: hard hitting journalist that I am. I just did a
Speaker 2: quick Google search, and I see that the unemployment rate
Speaker 2: is three point four percent. That's pretty darn low, isn't it.
Speaker 3: It's I think, actually a forty or fifty year low.
Speaker 3: It's been amazing. In fact, we had a pretty rip
Speaker 3: roaring economy prior to the pandemic, and of course the
Speaker 3: pandemic hit, and we economists knew that that was going
Speaker 3: to cause a recession, and it did. We had an
Speaker 3: unemployment rate in March, I believe March or April of
Speaker 3: twenty twenty fourteen percent, highest since the so called Great
Speaker 3: Depression of the nineteen thirties. But once we began to
Speaker 3: open up, which happened at the end of May, and
Speaker 3: once we the federal government started pushing stimulus money in,
Speaker 3: the economy began to quickly recover, and actually we got
Speaker 3: back to pre levels of at least production within another quarter,
Speaker 3: and we've been growing since and we're actually now in
Speaker 3: an economy that's beyond where it was pre pandemic in
Speaker 3: terms of production, also in terms of employment.
Speaker 2: I think we can all agree that a low unemployment
Speaker 2: rate is a good thing, but I have to admit
Speaker 2: that I didn't entirely understand what that looked like out
Speaker 2: in our job market. With the unemployment rate being three
Speaker 2: point four, does that mean that there are no jobs
Speaker 2: available for someone looking or are there lots of jobs
Speaker 2: that we just can't keep filled? Oh?
Speaker 3: No, there right now. A lot of people heard this
Speaker 3: and recently that there were two jobs available for every
Speaker 3: person unemployed. It's actually gotten a little better. Is about
Speaker 3: one point seven jobs available for every person unemployed now.
Speaker 3: Pre pandemic, which was more normal, it was only one
Speaker 3: point two jobs available for every person employed. So yeah,
Speaker 3: there are still signs out there and businesses saying please apply.
Speaker 2: But doctor Walden explained the types of jobs that are
Speaker 2: widely available are different from those that we might have
Speaker 2: seen one or two years ago, because as the world
Speaker 2: returns to some sort of post pandemic normal Americans are
Speaker 2: once again craving community. We want to hang out at
Speaker 2: bars and restaurants again, or maybe take that long overdue
Speaker 2: vacation and therefore the jobs market. Those now hiring signs
Speaker 2: we're seeing all over town reflect the shift in consumer behavior.
Speaker 3: If you look at the latest job of report we
Speaker 3: had for the nation, which came out January, it was
Speaker 3: a very robust report. What we saw is a lot
Speaker 3: of people taking restaurant jobs and personal service jobs, exactly
Speaker 3: the opposite of what happened after the pandemic. And I
Speaker 3: think what's happened here is the tech sector is slowing down.
Speaker 3: So I think that this makes sense to me that
Speaker 3: as a tech sector shed some people, those people, maybe
Speaker 3: some of them are saying, well, I've got to go
Speaker 3: back at least for a while, and maybe those jobs
Speaker 3: that I left.
Speaker 2: Despite the very favorable labor market with nearly two jobs
Speaker 2: available for every job seeker, doctor Wildon suggests that we
Speaker 2: shouldn't get too comfortable employers have a special trick up
Speaker 2: their sleeve to combat this labor shortage, that we should
Speaker 2: all be careful about.
Speaker 3: One thing we're going to see more of to deal
Speaker 3: broadly with the labor shortage is something that we actually
Speaker 3: feared a decade ago, and that is technology.
Speaker 2: In other words, robots, well also automation and AI but yes,
Speaker 2: also robots.
Speaker 3: But I think some of those technologies have been developed,
Speaker 3: they may hit at just the right time.
Speaker 2: And it's no longer just factory jobs and other repetitive
Speaker 2: tasks that are at risk of being replaced.
Speaker 3: Especially now, for example, we're getting AI. AI is being
Speaker 3: developed and then there's some scary things about that, but
Speaker 3: that's going to influence people at more cognitive jobs. So
Speaker 3: I don't think we should get too set in thinking, oh,
Speaker 3: this labor shortage is going to go on. I do
Speaker 3: think eventually we're going to see a lot of this
Speaker 3: technology come in and be used by businesses. So I
Speaker 3: still think people need to worry about getting the skills
Speaker 3: that they need to get in order to get the
Speaker 3: job they want, and just don't be setting back and saying, oh,
Speaker 3: I can get a job anytime I want, because there's
Speaker 3: so many jobs deal I think eventually it'll change.
Speaker 2: So doctor Walden's advice, get that job now, Folks, strike
Speaker 2: while the iron's hot. We'll be right back.
Speaker 4: A strong work ethic takes pride in a job well done.
Speaker 4: This is the kind of person you need. Express employment
Speaker 4: professionals can help because in good times or bad, we
Speaker 4: understand how critical it is to manage your business for
Speaker 4: today with the right workforce. We offer hiring solutions to
Speaker 4: fit changing demands. Express knows Jobs. Get to know Express
Speaker 4: go to expresspros dot com to find a location near you.
Speaker 2: We're back speaking with economist doctor Michael L. Walden, who
Speaker 2: is just reflecting on the very strong post pandemic labor
Speaker 2: market we're enjoying. But doctor Walden also acknowledges that even
Speaker 2: in a blazing labor market that heavily favors the worker,
Speaker 2: sometimes landing that job is easier said than done.
Speaker 3: We are probably an era where what businesses want and
Speaker 3: the skills that are needed are changing more rapidly than
Speaker 3: any time before. And I think, what's going to happen.
Speaker 3: This is not me saying this. The kind of jobs
Speaker 3: that are going to be applied for people and the
Speaker 3: skills that are needed are going to change.
Speaker 2: What doctor Walden is talking about has already been playing
Speaker 2: out far and wide. In just three decades. We've gone
Speaker 2: from dial up modems to nearly every single job in
Speaker 2: America requiring some level of computer proficiency. And we're not
Speaker 2: just talking about office workers. Waitresses are taking our orders
Speaker 2: on iPads, mechanics, are plugging our cars into diagnostic systems,
Speaker 2: metal fabricators are using CNC machines and laser cutters. Even
Speaker 2: our doctors are asking us to open wide, stick out
Speaker 2: our tongues, and zoom in with our camera phones. And
Speaker 2: while the adoption of these technologies has allowed for some
Speaker 2: phenomenal advancements, it also poses some challenges to America's workforce.
Speaker 3: And what I worry about is that we may very
Speaker 3: well be looking down the road at the situation where
Speaker 3: we have a large percentage of people who are say
Speaker 3: middle aged, they've been working at their job for a
Speaker 3: decade or two, they've got family to raise, et cetera,
Speaker 3: who one day wake up and find their job's gone.
Speaker 3: They may be taken over by technology, it may have
Speaker 3: been changed in some way, and they need to get retrained,
Speaker 3: and they don't have time to go to a four
Speaker 3: year college spend four years retraining. So I think we
Speaker 3: need to start looking at programs that get people retrained
Speaker 3: in skills that are needed quickly. I think we need
Speaker 3: to encourage businesses to set up their own training programs
Speaker 3: for people. So I think I think the rapidity and
Speaker 3: what skills are going to are going to change will
Speaker 3: require a much more rapid and efficient educational system.
Speaker 2: So to meet these swiftly changing times, we're going to
Speaker 2: have to get clever about education and retraining. From the
Speaker 2: returning popularity of trade schools to coding boot camps, Americans
Speaker 2: are scrambling to stay ahead and take some agency in
Speaker 2: their future career path. Now, of course, I wouldn't be
Speaker 2: fulfilling my hosting duties here if I spoke to an
Speaker 2: economist and didn't ask him to gaze into his crystal ball.
Speaker 2: So I had doctor Walden with a question that seems
Speaker 2: to be on everyone's minds these days. Will we have
Speaker 2: a recession? And his response was.
Speaker 3: When I'm in the camp that I think we will
Speaker 3: toward the end of the year.
Speaker 2: But before you get too concerned, he added some very
Speaker 2: interesting caveats.
Speaker 3: So there's one idea that economists that have been batting
Speaker 3: around sort of in the background here is that if
Speaker 3: we get a recession, we may actually see businesses not
Speaker 3: layoff anyone, or maybe the layoff would be very minor
Speaker 3: because they can cut their labor costs by simply cutting
Speaker 3: the number of unfilled positions. So the forecast that I've seen,
Speaker 3: even in the worst case scenario is maybe the unemployment
Speaker 3: rate would go up to five percent and five percent
Speaker 3: unemployment now, No, I don't want anyone listening to think
Speaker 3: that I don't care about unemployed people. I do. My
Speaker 3: father working in construction, he was unemployed a couple times,
Speaker 3: always every year, and I remember living through that. But
Speaker 3: if five percent of unemployment when I was in graduate
Speaker 3: school fifty years ago, that was considered full employment. And
Speaker 3: so if we get to five percent employment and that's
Speaker 3: the worst during what I think will be an upcoming recession,
Speaker 3: that would be great. So fingers crossed. If we do
Speaker 3: have a recession, I think there'll be best case scenario,
Speaker 3: there'll be no negative impact on the job market. But
Speaker 3: if it's a normal situation, even minimal impact on the
Speaker 3: job market, and then we'll get back. And then the
Speaker 3: other thing, The other thing the companies are remembering is
Speaker 3: they had to work hard to get the people have
Speaker 3: because it's so competitive, and so a lot of companies
Speaker 3: are reluctant to let people go because they're worried they
Speaker 3: can't get them back when times get back to normal
Speaker 3: and the economy blooms again.
Speaker 2: Only time will tell how things play out, But I
Speaker 2: hope for everyone's sake that doctor Walden is right and
Speaker 2: things won't be as bad as some of these doomsday
Speaker 2: pundits have been predicting that this labor market will continue
Speaker 2: to roar. But then, just as we were wrapping up
Speaker 2: our interview, I noticed hanging in the background of his
Speaker 2: office a long row of baseball caps, all of them
Speaker 2: bearing the logo of the Cincinnati Reds. And if you
Speaker 2: know anything about the Cincinnati Reds, then you know you
Speaker 2: have to be an eternal optimist to keep rooting for them.
Speaker 3: My Reds had a horrible season last year. I think
Speaker 3: they lost one hundred and two games, But I'm always
Speaker 3: optimistic about a lot of young players, so I'm looking
Speaker 3: for good things from the Reds. Maybe not World Series,
Speaker 3: but at least being competitive.
Speaker 2: So maybe we should take doctor Waldon's positive economic outlook
Speaker 2: with a grain of salt. Or maybe he's completely right
Speaker 2: and we'll see the Reds in the playoffs. For on
Speaker 2: the job, I'm Avery Thompson. I'll see you down the road.