WEBVTT - The View From Caracas: How the ‘Power Game’ Is Reshaping Venezuela

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

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<v Speaker 2>Hi David, Hey Sarah.

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<v Speaker 3>Nice to see you in the studio.

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<v Speaker 2>And it's good to be here with you.

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<v Speaker 3>And we're never here.

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<v Speaker 2>We're never here. At the same time, we're like ships

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<v Speaker 2>in the night.

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<v Speaker 3>And so rarely are okay, But now we're not ships

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<v Speaker 3>in the night anymore. We've made it into the studio together. Yes, so, David.

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<v Speaker 3>Ever since the US launched a major military operation in

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<v Speaker 3>Venezuela in January, and even before that, we've been talking

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<v Speaker 3>a lot about it on the show.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I am fascinated by this story, in part because

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<v Speaker 2>I used to live in South America. I lived in

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<v Speaker 2>Bolivia when that country was going through a political transition.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm very eager to see sort of what will come

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<v Speaker 2>of this effort the US made to shake things up

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<v Speaker 2>change the circumstances of Venezuela.

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<v Speaker 3>And today we're going to hear a brand new conversation

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<v Speaker 3>you had this week about the state of play in Venezuela.

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<v Speaker 3>And it's also airing on this new show that you're

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<v Speaker 3>about to launch at Bloomberg. Yes.

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<v Speaker 2>So that new show is called Bloomberg this weekend, and

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<v Speaker 2>it's going to debut on Bloomberg TV and Bloomberg Radio

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<v Speaker 2>on Saturday. You can also stream it online. I'm going

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<v Speaker 2>to host it with Christina Raffini and Lisa Matteo.

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<v Speaker 3>Kivigir, You're doing a show during the week and during

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<v Speaker 3>the weekend. When do you sleep.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm trying to figure this out, but rest assured I'm

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<v Speaker 2>not going anywhere. I will be here on the big tag.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, your first get was a great get. Tell us

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<v Speaker 3>about this guest who's coming on the show.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. I sat down with Phil Gunsen, who is a

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<v Speaker 2>bit of a rarity. He's covered Latin America for the

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<v Speaker 2>better part of four decades, and he's focused on one

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<v Speaker 2>country in particular.

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<v Speaker 1>What it says on my business card is that I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Crisis Group's senior Analyst for the Andes Region. But in

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<v Speaker 1>practice that means that I focus on Venezuela. Venezuela keeps

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<v Speaker 1>me busy. I've lived in Caracas for nearly twenty seven

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<v Speaker 1>years now.

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<v Speaker 2>Phil moved there in nineteen ninety nine, so he was

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<v Speaker 2>there when ugu Chavas came to power. He was there

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<v Speaker 2>when uguchav Has died, he was there when Nicholas Mudua

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<v Speaker 2>became the president of Venezuela.

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<v Speaker 3>Was he there when the US went in and captured Nicholas.

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<v Speaker 2>He was there, and he told me his house is

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<v Speaker 2>pretty close to the military base for Maduro was taken

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<v Speaker 2>by US forces.

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<v Speaker 1>This is the point where I embarrassingly have to admit

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<v Speaker 1>that I slept all the way you did, I mean

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<v Speaker 1>the attack Venezuelan time the bombs and rockets started falling

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<v Speaker 1>about two in the morning, I was fast asleep.

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<v Speaker 3>Wow.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, that chaos didn't wake him up, but his phone

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<v Speaker 2>eventually did. And since then Phil has been really focused

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<v Speaker 2>on how the US is engaging with Venezuela. Today, he

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<v Speaker 2>and I talked a lot about that, and we dug

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<v Speaker 2>into really how uncertain the country's future is.

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<v Speaker 1>As we like to say in Crisis Group, a transition

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<v Speaker 1>is a process, not an event.

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<v Speaker 3>Well, I'm really excited to hear more. So here's my

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<v Speaker 3>co host, David Gura with Phil Gunson. Don't forget to

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<v Speaker 3>catch this and more on Bloomberg this weekend from seven

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<v Speaker 3>to ten am Eastern Time every Saturday and Sunday. I'll

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<v Speaker 3>be setting my alarm.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm David Gerra, and this is the big take from

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg News Today. On the show, my conversation with International

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<v Speaker 2>Crisis Group senior analyst Phil Gunson. We discussed how Venezuela

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<v Speaker 2>has changed and how it hasn't since the US captured

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<v Speaker 2>Diglas Maduro, and what could come next. Let's spend some

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<v Speaker 2>time talking about the events of January the third with

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<v Speaker 2>the US's Operation Absolute Resolve. Remind us what the run

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<v Speaker 2>up to that was like, with the weeks and months

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<v Speaker 2>leading up to that date were like and felt like

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<v Speaker 2>in Venezuela.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, it was very startling, I suppose because when

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<v Speaker 1>Trump came back to power in January of last year,

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<v Speaker 1>we and I think a lot of other analysts had

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<v Speaker 1>concluded that Trump's approach to Venezuela was going to be

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<v Speaker 1>rather less I fact. I mean, it was going to

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<v Speaker 1>be a pragmatic approach, not regime change, not maximum pressure

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<v Speaker 1>as we saw under Trump won and that was the

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<v Speaker 1>way he started out. And then August of last year

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<v Speaker 1>we began to see this immense military build up which

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<v Speaker 1>was framed as a counter narcotics operation, and to be honest,

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<v Speaker 1>I think you know, in in Crisis Group and elsewhere,

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<v Speaker 1>it was largely interpreted as a bluff. On the one hand,

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<v Speaker 1>it's saber rattling in order to persuade Maduda to leave,

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<v Speaker 1>because the consequences of not doing so would be severe.

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<v Speaker 1>On the assumption that that would be enough that there

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<v Speaker 1>wouldn't be any need to put, as they say, boots

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<v Speaker 1>on the ground, because clearly Trump was not willing to

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<v Speaker 1>do that, and so I think we, I think President

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<v Speaker 1>Maduda himself concluded, well, this is not going to really

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<v Speaker 1>come to anything. But the build up went on and

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<v Speaker 1>on and on, and you had the aircraft carrier, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the General r Ford deployed to the Caribbean, this massive,

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<v Speaker 1>massive build up to the point where we began to say, well,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, they just can't just sail away, and Maduro

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<v Speaker 1>showed no signs of leaving. It became very hard to

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<v Speaker 1>understand how this was going to end. When it did

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<v Speaker 1>conclude with January the third, it wasn't any of the

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<v Speaker 1>scenarios that we had really anticipated.

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<v Speaker 2>Could you describe the uncertainty of those hours that followed

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<v Speaker 2>for you and for others who live in Venezuela, just

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<v Speaker 2>wondering what would happen next? And did it feel like

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<v Speaker 2>a vacuum was opening up?

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<v Speaker 1>It was all really very quick, actually, I mean it

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<v Speaker 1>almost was too quick for us to properly work out

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<v Speaker 1>what we were feeling about. I mean, the first sensation is, well, okay,

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<v Speaker 1>it's obviously a US attack. It's not a complete surprise

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<v Speaker 1>because Trump had been threatening this repeatedly, pretty much every

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<v Speaker 1>weekend for weeks before that. We'd been expecting some kind

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<v Speaker 1>of attack, So in that sense, it wasn't totally shocking.

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<v Speaker 1>What was really shocking was suddenly to realize Maduro was

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<v Speaker 1>snatched along with his wife. What did that mean. But

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<v Speaker 1>by the time we got around to trying to work

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<v Speaker 1>out what that might mean, you know, there was already

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<v Speaker 1>press conference in Washington with Trump saying, you know, announcing

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<v Speaker 1>the operation, and that was in a way the biggest

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<v Speaker 1>surprise of the whole morning, which was Trump saying, well,

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<v Speaker 1>Mario Corina Machaala was a great lady, but unfortunately she

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't have the support in ven as weulla to be

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<v Speaker 1>installed as the government. So we're going to be dealing

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<v Speaker 1>with Delcia Rodriguez, who's Medua's vice president. That was probably

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<v Speaker 1>the most surprising thing in those few hours.

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<v Speaker 2>What is the state of political power in Venezuela today?

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<v Speaker 2>So Maduro is gone, he's in a jail, cell and

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<v Speaker 2>Brooklyn DLCI. Rodriguez is in power on an interim basis,

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<v Speaker 2>Maria Kramachado is somewhere. We don't know exactly where. Who

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<v Speaker 2>is in control? And how would you assess the longevity

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<v Speaker 2>of the kind of political moment that we're in.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that's probably the key issue. Obviously, we heard

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<v Speaker 1>from President Trump very soon after January third. I can't

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<v Speaker 1>remember it was on the same day, but within a

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<v Speaker 1>couple of days at least, he was saying, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the US is going to be running ven Azulla. We're

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<v Speaker 1>looking around and going where are they, you know, because

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<v Speaker 1>there's nobody here on the ground. There's not been an embassy.

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<v Speaker 1>There is now they're in the reopened the embassy and

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<v Speaker 1>they're starting to establish a US diplomatic presence in Caracas.

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<v Speaker 1>But since twenty nineteen, there was no There were no

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<v Speaker 1>US diplomats in Venezuela. There certainly weren't boots on the ground,

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<v Speaker 1>there's no military occupation in Venezuela. So in what sense

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<v Speaker 1>is the US running Venezuela? And my immediate thought was

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<v Speaker 1>it seems to me the Venezuelan government is running Venea.

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<v Speaker 1>But of course then it becomes more complicated. Then you

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<v Speaker 1>have to work out, well, Okay, the US says that

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<v Speaker 1>they're going to be running Venezuela because if the Delcea

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<v Speaker 1>government doesn't do what they say, then there will be consequences.

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<v Speaker 1>And therefore, you know, this is kind of a neo

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<v Speaker 1>colonial sort of operation. But to try to run, especially

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<v Speaker 1>a country the size of Venezuela, country twice the size

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<v Speaker 1>of California, twice the size of Iraq, nearly thirty million

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<v Speaker 1>people topographically very difficult, politically, very difficult, full of guns

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<v Speaker 1>in one among the security forces and outside, How you're

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<v Speaker 1>going to do that? How are you going to run Venezuela.

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<v Speaker 1>So we're still working it out. As the honest answer

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<v Speaker 1>to that question, I think.

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<v Speaker 2>How do you think about the role that Delcia Rodriguez

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<v Speaker 2>is playing, the apparent closeness she has with the Trump administration,

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<v Speaker 2>the closeness that she had with Nicholas Maduro, the political

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<v Speaker 2>power that she's amassed as a result of her career

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<v Speaker 2>in Venezuela and politics, How she is navigating those those

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<v Speaker 2>two things.

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<v Speaker 1>De Elsie Rodriguez and her brother Jorge, who's the guy

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<v Speaker 1>who runs the National Assembly and is a key figure

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<v Speaker 1>in all of this. He was Maduro's key negotiator for

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<v Speaker 1>a very long time with the opposition and with the US.

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<v Speaker 1>These two, the Rodriguez siblings, are smart people. They're very adaptable,

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<v Speaker 1>They're very pragmatic. They're also very ideological. I mean they

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<v Speaker 1>know ideologically they come from the same segment, if you like,

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<v Speaker 1>of the ideological spectrum as President Madula himself. They come

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<v Speaker 1>from the far left. But they are adaptable, and I

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<v Speaker 1>think that's the key to what ELSEI is able to

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<v Speaker 1>do right now, because she turned on a dime, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, and of course she has maintained the discourse,

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<v Speaker 1>the narrative for internal purposes about this being a socialist revolution,

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<v Speaker 1>anti imperialist and all the rest of it, whilst doing

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<v Speaker 1>her best to comply with what Trump needs. That's not

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<v Speaker 1>an easy thing to do. I think if anybody can

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<v Speaker 1>do it, she can, and she's demonstrated that so far.

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<v Speaker 1>This is a power game. It's about staying in power,

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<v Speaker 1>and in particular, I think what divides so called moderates

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<v Speaker 1>from so called hardliners is whether or not they perceive

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<v Speaker 1>a future for themselves under some form of political transition.

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<v Speaker 1>I think the Rodriguez siblings can imagine. I don't think

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<v Speaker 1>they want it, but I think they can imagine surviving

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<v Speaker 1>a transition. But a lot of the people with guns

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<v Speaker 1>cannot imagine that, and for them it's an existential issue.

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<v Speaker 1>And so it's a case of day by day figuring

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<v Speaker 1>out where the boundaries are. But then, of course, apart

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<v Speaker 1>from that, the opposition is divided, and that I think

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<v Speaker 1>is one of the key obstacles that might lie in

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<v Speaker 1>the path of some form of political settlement, some form

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<v Speaker 1>of transition.

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<v Speaker 2>So what could us involvement in Venezuela tell us about

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<v Speaker 2>Trump's approach to other countries? And is the president's endgame

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<v Speaker 2>really just about oil? That's after the break After the

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<v Speaker 2>US captured Nicholas Maduro, President Trump said the US would

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<v Speaker 2>run Venezuela, which raised a bunch of questions. I asked

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<v Speaker 2>Phil Gunson of the International Crisis Group what Maduro's expatriation

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<v Speaker 2>has meant in real terms. I'd hope you and I

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<v Speaker 2>could talk about political transition. And I guess what's sort

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<v Speaker 2>of peculiar about this moment is you have Madurea being

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<v Speaker 2>removed from power, yet it seems like there hasn't been

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<v Speaker 2>much of a political transition yet I imagine the key

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<v Speaker 2>to that is elections. At some point are they being

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<v Speaker 2>talked about what would they need to look like to

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<v Speaker 2>remove for what imagine is a huge hurdle here for

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<v Speaker 2>there being any kind of viable political change.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, as we like to say in Crisis Group, a

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<v Speaker 1>transition is a process, not an event. And one of

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<v Speaker 1>the things I think that is problematic about the way

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<v Speaker 1>some people in the opposition regard the term transition and

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<v Speaker 1>the idea the concept of transition is that they don't

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<v Speaker 1>distinguish between transition and regime change. In other words, transition

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<v Speaker 1>for them is you leave power, we take power. That's

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<v Speaker 1>a transition. A transition for us is a process whereby

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<v Speaker 1>the government that is still in power concedes certain things

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<v Speaker 1>over a period of time. The opposition also concedes certain things,

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<v Speaker 1>and they come to an agreement about where this process

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<v Speaker 1>is going, what the end results should be. Elections, at

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<v Speaker 1>least a presidential election, to my mind, should be closer

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<v Speaker 1>towards the end of that process than the beginning.

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<v Speaker 2>What is the US getting from this leadership change? I

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<v Speaker 2>suppose it's somebody who will return their phone calls. But

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<v Speaker 2>what makes Delsier Drigez more palatable to the US, and

0:11:58.800 --> 0:12:01.120
<v Speaker 2>I should say US leadership the Trump administration than the

0:12:01.200 --> 0:12:02.120
<v Speaker 2>Nicholas Madruau was.

0:12:02.960 --> 0:12:06.280
<v Speaker 1>If you ask some people, they would say, oh, it's oil, right,

0:12:06.320 --> 0:12:09.120
<v Speaker 1>I mean Trump wants the oil, Dolsy is giving in

0:12:09.160 --> 0:12:11.920
<v Speaker 1>the oil, and therefore you know, that's the beginning in

0:12:11.960 --> 0:12:13.480
<v Speaker 1>the end of the story. I think it's a lot

0:12:13.480 --> 0:12:16.720
<v Speaker 1>more complicated that and I don't actually think that oil

0:12:17.520 --> 0:12:23.320
<v Speaker 1>in the purely material sense is necessarily even most of

0:12:23.320 --> 0:12:29.080
<v Speaker 1>what it's about. I think the US wants a stable,

0:12:30.000 --> 0:12:36.320
<v Speaker 1>friendly Venezuela, open to US capital, that excludes forces seen

0:12:36.360 --> 0:12:38.600
<v Speaker 1>by the US as hostile to US interests.

0:12:38.400 --> 0:12:40.840
<v Speaker 2>So part of this grander plan for the continent, and

0:12:40.880 --> 0:12:41.400
<v Speaker 2>even beyond.

0:12:41.440 --> 0:12:44.120
<v Speaker 1>I mean, it's a geopolitical issue. And you know that

0:12:44.200 --> 0:12:47.040
<v Speaker 1>the fact of what happened in January the third in Venezuela,

0:12:47.960 --> 0:12:50.640
<v Speaker 1>that the very facts of that, the way it happened,

0:12:50.640 --> 0:12:55.840
<v Speaker 1>what happened, then the implications of that are particularly significant

0:12:55.840 --> 0:12:58.040
<v Speaker 1>for the region and the way the US relates to

0:12:58.080 --> 0:13:02.079
<v Speaker 1>the region and vice versa. But they're also have implications beyond.

0:13:02.120 --> 0:13:04.240
<v Speaker 1>I mean, I think, for example, that what we're now

0:13:04.280 --> 0:13:09.640
<v Speaker 1>seeing around Iran is partly Trump saying, well, look, at

0:13:09.640 --> 0:13:11.960
<v Speaker 1>what really well in Venezuela. I mean, you know, let's

0:13:12.080 --> 0:13:13.960
<v Speaker 1>try and do the same in Iran. There's a sense

0:13:14.000 --> 0:13:18.559
<v Speaker 1>in which the US was emboldened by that event to say, oh, well, look,

0:13:18.600 --> 0:13:20.320
<v Speaker 1>we don't even need to put boots on the ground.

0:13:20.360 --> 0:13:25.199
<v Speaker 1>We can do these really you know, very sophisticated military operations,

0:13:25.200 --> 0:13:26.760
<v Speaker 1>and we can make people do what we want.

0:13:26.920 --> 0:13:29.959
<v Speaker 2>You mentioned oil, and the President talks an awful lot

0:13:30.000 --> 0:13:32.960
<v Speaker 2>about the potential for that to be good for Venezuela

0:13:33.000 --> 0:13:35.559
<v Speaker 2>and good for the US if US energy companies were

0:13:35.600 --> 0:13:39.559
<v Speaker 2>to go into Venezuela, build new infrastructure, repair old infrastructure,

0:13:40.320 --> 0:13:43.480
<v Speaker 2>that could benefit both countries. First of all, I'm wondering,

0:13:43.600 --> 0:13:46.760
<v Speaker 2>just does the prospect of that has that improved the

0:13:46.760 --> 0:13:49.120
<v Speaker 2>economy in Venezuela at all? Just the fact that the

0:13:49.240 --> 0:13:52.520
<v Speaker 2>US is showing more interest in improving the economic situation

0:13:52.559 --> 0:13:53.400
<v Speaker 2>in Venezuela.

0:13:53.559 --> 0:13:56.959
<v Speaker 1>Yes, and no. The most immediate impact of that is, Okay,

0:13:57.040 --> 0:14:00.000
<v Speaker 1>the US took something like fifty million bounds of oil,

0:14:00.640 --> 0:14:03.520
<v Speaker 1>sold it more or less at market prices, and via

0:14:03.640 --> 0:14:08.560
<v Speaker 1>complicated financial arrangement, sent hundreds of millions of dollars into Venezuela,

0:14:08.880 --> 0:14:11.600
<v Speaker 1>which were then sold by a set of private banks

0:14:11.679 --> 0:14:14.760
<v Speaker 1>on the open market for more or less rates. So

0:14:14.960 --> 0:14:17.360
<v Speaker 1>that helped to bring down the exchange rate, but it's

0:14:17.440 --> 0:14:20.960
<v Speaker 1>not yet filtered through or trickled down if you like,

0:14:21.040 --> 0:14:24.480
<v Speaker 1>to the extent that ordinary Venezuelan's doing their weekly shopping

0:14:24.720 --> 0:14:28.120
<v Speaker 1>can see a benefit. One of the huge problems that

0:14:28.120 --> 0:14:30.560
<v Speaker 1>we have in Venezuela is that this is a country

0:14:30.760 --> 0:14:32.920
<v Speaker 1>which ought to be rich, and it ought to be

0:14:33.400 --> 0:14:35.360
<v Speaker 1>you know, you ought to have you know, a per

0:14:35.400 --> 0:14:38.800
<v Speaker 1>capita income among the highest in the region, used to

0:14:38.840 --> 0:14:42.320
<v Speaker 1>be among the highest in the world, and yet more

0:14:42.360 --> 0:14:44.840
<v Speaker 1>than eighty percent of the population lives in poverty. And

0:14:44.880 --> 0:14:47.240
<v Speaker 1>it's also worth mentioning that one of the first things

0:14:47.480 --> 0:14:50.000
<v Speaker 1>Trump did when he came back to power last year

0:14:50.120 --> 0:14:53.680
<v Speaker 1>was to slash Overseas aid and that had an immediate

0:14:53.680 --> 0:14:57.840
<v Speaker 1>impact on malnutrition in Venezuela because the World Food Program

0:14:57.920 --> 0:15:04.000
<v Speaker 1>immediately found its budgets. So right now Venezuelans have hopes

0:15:04.240 --> 0:15:06.920
<v Speaker 1>that this will improve, but what economists says, it's going

0:15:06.920 --> 0:15:09.600
<v Speaker 1>to say probably six to eight months before the real

0:15:09.640 --> 0:15:13.920
<v Speaker 1>benefits they if they do filter down eventually do do that.

0:15:15.280 --> 0:15:17.280
<v Speaker 2>There is this trip a couple of weeks ago Chris Wright,

0:15:17.360 --> 0:15:20.680
<v Speaker 2>the Energy Secretary traveled to Caracas, and my colleague and

0:15:20.760 --> 0:15:23.480
<v Speaker 2>Rehorder and was on that trip with him, and there

0:15:23.560 --> 0:15:26.480
<v Speaker 2>is just something extorted about that image of seeing a

0:15:26.600 --> 0:15:29.560
<v Speaker 2>US Energy sectory, a cabinet member on the ground in Venezuela.

0:15:30.160 --> 0:15:32.240
<v Speaker 2>What did that trip signal to you? And here I'm

0:15:32.240 --> 0:15:34.280
<v Speaker 2>getting into the kind of longer term prospects of US

0:15:34.320 --> 0:15:35.840
<v Speaker 2>engagement in the energy sector.

0:15:36.280 --> 0:15:38.200
<v Speaker 1>I mean, one of the striking things about that was

0:15:39.200 --> 0:15:42.240
<v Speaker 1>just reading the body language and the fact that you know,

0:15:43.040 --> 0:15:46.120
<v Speaker 1>the Energy Secretary and the interim President were, you know,

0:15:46.240 --> 0:15:48.840
<v Speaker 1>chatting away happily to each other and touring oil installations.

0:15:49.240 --> 0:15:52.080
<v Speaker 1>This is a really strange thing to see in Venezuela.

0:15:52.760 --> 0:15:56.720
<v Speaker 1>But Dela Rodriguez certainly is not reluctant to see the

0:15:56.720 --> 0:15:59.240
<v Speaker 1>economy open up and more money come in. And in

0:15:59.240 --> 0:16:02.840
<v Speaker 1>that sense, there's an awful lot of common ground. Where,

0:16:02.880 --> 0:16:05.480
<v Speaker 1>of course it may break down is if the US

0:16:05.600 --> 0:16:08.520
<v Speaker 1>starts to insist on a political transition. And so the

0:16:08.640 --> 0:16:11.800
<v Speaker 1>danger that we see, I think, is that this could

0:16:11.800 --> 0:16:15.200
<v Speaker 1>reach a new or we could basically maintain this new

0:16:15.200 --> 0:16:20.080
<v Speaker 1>equilibrium of friendly relations between Washington Carrakas that have absolutely

0:16:20.120 --> 0:16:22.720
<v Speaker 1>nothing to do with what the bulk of Venezuelans ultimately

0:16:22.760 --> 0:16:24.720
<v Speaker 1>want to see because they're not part of the discussion.

0:16:24.840 --> 0:16:26.800
<v Speaker 2>I want to ask you lastly, what you'll be watching

0:16:26.880 --> 0:16:30.520
<v Speaker 2>for in the months ahead, what's most important to pay

0:16:30.560 --> 0:16:31.080
<v Speaker 2>attention to.

0:16:31.920 --> 0:16:36.640
<v Speaker 1>You know, I think what most concerns me and what

0:16:36.720 --> 0:16:39.480
<v Speaker 1>most concerns us in Crisis Group is precisely what I

0:16:39.480 --> 0:16:42.120
<v Speaker 1>said about the fact that this is a dialogue between

0:16:42.440 --> 0:16:45.080
<v Speaker 1>two governments, neither of which we're elected by Venezuelans. Really,

0:16:45.160 --> 0:16:49.720
<v Speaker 1>let's face it, over the heads of the Venezuelan people.

0:16:50.000 --> 0:16:52.840
<v Speaker 1>What I think is going to be one of our

0:16:52.840 --> 0:16:56.280
<v Speaker 1>biggest questions is to what extent is the US prepared

0:16:56.320 --> 0:17:00.480
<v Speaker 1>to push for this, given that moves towards a political

0:17:00.480 --> 0:17:03.320
<v Speaker 1>transition could destabilize the rest of what they're interested in.

0:17:04.400 --> 0:17:07.560
<v Speaker 1>They could create a backlash, for example, on among the

0:17:07.560 --> 0:17:09.359
<v Speaker 1>people who fear they might end up in jail of

0:17:09.400 --> 0:17:12.640
<v Speaker 1>the transition happened. That's the sort of thing that we're

0:17:12.640 --> 0:17:13.480
<v Speaker 1>really looking at.

0:17:13.720 --> 0:17:14.640
<v Speaker 2>Phil. Thank you very much.

0:17:14.840 --> 0:17:15.919
<v Speaker 1>Thank you, it's been a pleasure.

0:17:22.960 --> 0:17:25.320
<v Speaker 2>This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gera.

0:17:25.640 --> 0:17:27.919
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