1 00:00:02,720 --> 00:00:07,200 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:08,240 --> 00:00:09,320 Speaker 2: Hi David, Hey Sarah. 3 00:00:09,400 --> 00:00:10,399 Speaker 3: Nice to see you in the studio. 4 00:00:10,440 --> 00:00:11,360 Speaker 2: And it's good to be here with you. 5 00:00:11,760 --> 00:00:12,600 Speaker 3: And we're never here. 6 00:00:12,720 --> 00:00:14,440 Speaker 2: We're never here. At the same time, we're like ships 7 00:00:14,440 --> 00:00:14,960 Speaker 2: in the night. 8 00:00:14,920 --> 00:00:17,800 Speaker 3: And so rarely are okay, But now we're not ships 9 00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:21,239 Speaker 3: in the night anymore. We've made it into the studio together. Yes, so, David. 10 00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:24,480 Speaker 3: Ever since the US launched a major military operation in 11 00:00:24,560 --> 00:00:27,640 Speaker 3: Venezuela in January, and even before that, we've been talking 12 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:29,040 Speaker 3: a lot about it on the show. 13 00:00:29,160 --> 00:00:31,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, I am fascinated by this story, in part because 14 00:00:31,800 --> 00:00:33,640 Speaker 2: I used to live in South America. I lived in 15 00:00:33,680 --> 00:00:36,199 Speaker 2: Bolivia when that country was going through a political transition. 16 00:00:36,479 --> 00:00:38,600 Speaker 2: I'm very eager to see sort of what will come 17 00:00:38,800 --> 00:00:42,000 Speaker 2: of this effort the US made to shake things up 18 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:44,200 Speaker 2: change the circumstances of Venezuela. 19 00:00:44,280 --> 00:00:46,680 Speaker 3: And today we're going to hear a brand new conversation 20 00:00:46,880 --> 00:00:50,680 Speaker 3: you had this week about the state of play in Venezuela. 21 00:00:50,760 --> 00:00:52,640 Speaker 3: And it's also airing on this new show that you're 22 00:00:52,680 --> 00:00:54,800 Speaker 3: about to launch at Bloomberg. Yes. 23 00:00:54,880 --> 00:00:57,480 Speaker 2: So that new show is called Bloomberg this weekend, and 24 00:00:57,520 --> 00:01:00,360 Speaker 2: it's going to debut on Bloomberg TV and Bloomberg Radio 25 00:01:00,400 --> 00:01:02,760 Speaker 2: on Saturday. You can also stream it online. I'm going 26 00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:05,039 Speaker 2: to host it with Christina Raffini and Lisa Matteo. 27 00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:07,560 Speaker 3: Kivigir, You're doing a show during the week and during 28 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:08,760 Speaker 3: the weekend. When do you sleep. 29 00:01:08,880 --> 00:01:12,080 Speaker 2: I'm trying to figure this out, but rest assured I'm 30 00:01:12,080 --> 00:01:14,119 Speaker 2: not going anywhere. I will be here on the big tag. 31 00:01:14,640 --> 00:01:17,600 Speaker 3: Well, your first get was a great get. Tell us 32 00:01:17,680 --> 00:01:19,600 Speaker 3: about this guest who's coming on the show. 33 00:01:19,640 --> 00:01:22,240 Speaker 2: Yeah. I sat down with Phil Gunsen, who is a 34 00:01:22,280 --> 00:01:25,039 Speaker 2: bit of a rarity. He's covered Latin America for the 35 00:01:25,040 --> 00:01:27,720 Speaker 2: better part of four decades, and he's focused on one 36 00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:28,880 Speaker 2: country in particular. 37 00:01:29,160 --> 00:01:30,959 Speaker 1: What it says on my business card is that I'm 38 00:01:31,080 --> 00:01:34,440 Speaker 1: Crisis Group's senior Analyst for the Andes Region. But in 39 00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:37,600 Speaker 1: practice that means that I focus on Venezuela. Venezuela keeps 40 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:40,800 Speaker 1: me busy. I've lived in Caracas for nearly twenty seven 41 00:01:40,880 --> 00:01:41,240 Speaker 1: years now. 42 00:01:41,319 --> 00:01:43,640 Speaker 2: Phil moved there in nineteen ninety nine, so he was 43 00:01:43,680 --> 00:01:45,520 Speaker 2: there when ugu Chavas came to power. He was there 44 00:01:45,520 --> 00:01:47,559 Speaker 2: when uguchav Has died, he was there when Nicholas Mudua 45 00:01:47,600 --> 00:01:48,920 Speaker 2: became the president of Venezuela. 46 00:01:49,080 --> 00:01:51,520 Speaker 3: Was he there when the US went in and captured Nicholas. 47 00:01:51,560 --> 00:01:54,120 Speaker 2: He was there, and he told me his house is 48 00:01:54,400 --> 00:01:56,760 Speaker 2: pretty close to the military base for Maduro was taken 49 00:01:56,760 --> 00:01:57,560 Speaker 2: by US forces. 50 00:01:57,760 --> 00:01:59,760 Speaker 1: This is the point where I embarrassingly have to admit 51 00:01:59,800 --> 00:02:02,200 Speaker 1: that I slept all the way you did, I mean 52 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:07,360 Speaker 1: the attack Venezuelan time the bombs and rockets started falling 53 00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:09,799 Speaker 1: about two in the morning, I was fast asleep. 54 00:02:10,040 --> 00:02:10,359 Speaker 3: Wow. 55 00:02:10,639 --> 00:02:13,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, that chaos didn't wake him up, but his phone 56 00:02:13,480 --> 00:02:16,400 Speaker 2: eventually did. And since then Phil has been really focused 57 00:02:16,400 --> 00:02:19,560 Speaker 2: on how the US is engaging with Venezuela. Today, he 58 00:02:19,600 --> 00:02:21,119 Speaker 2: and I talked a lot about that, and we dug 59 00:02:21,160 --> 00:02:24,040 Speaker 2: into really how uncertain the country's future is. 60 00:02:24,240 --> 00:02:27,239 Speaker 1: As we like to say in Crisis Group, a transition 61 00:02:27,280 --> 00:02:28,360 Speaker 1: is a process, not an event. 62 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:31,680 Speaker 3: Well, I'm really excited to hear more. So here's my 63 00:02:31,720 --> 00:02:34,760 Speaker 3: co host, David Gura with Phil Gunson. Don't forget to 64 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:37,880 Speaker 3: catch this and more on Bloomberg this weekend from seven 65 00:02:37,960 --> 00:02:41,880 Speaker 3: to ten am Eastern Time every Saturday and Sunday. I'll 66 00:02:41,880 --> 00:02:48,760 Speaker 3: be setting my alarm. 67 00:02:48,919 --> 00:02:50,720 Speaker 2: I'm David Gerra, and this is the big take from 68 00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:54,160 Speaker 2: Bloomberg News Today. On the show, my conversation with International 69 00:02:54,200 --> 00:02:58,000 Speaker 2: Crisis Group senior analyst Phil Gunson. We discussed how Venezuela 70 00:02:58,040 --> 00:03:00,760 Speaker 2: has changed and how it hasn't since the US captured 71 00:03:00,760 --> 00:03:08,960 Speaker 2: Diglas Maduro, and what could come next. Let's spend some 72 00:03:09,000 --> 00:03:11,880 Speaker 2: time talking about the events of January the third with 73 00:03:11,960 --> 00:03:16,040 Speaker 2: the US's Operation Absolute Resolve. Remind us what the run 74 00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:18,400 Speaker 2: up to that was like, with the weeks and months 75 00:03:18,480 --> 00:03:20,760 Speaker 2: leading up to that date were like and felt like 76 00:03:21,000 --> 00:03:21,840 Speaker 2: in Venezuela. 77 00:03:22,200 --> 00:03:26,040 Speaker 1: You know, it was very startling, I suppose because when 78 00:03:26,480 --> 00:03:30,840 Speaker 1: Trump came back to power in January of last year, 79 00:03:32,360 --> 00:03:33,960 Speaker 1: we and I think a lot of other analysts had 80 00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:36,600 Speaker 1: concluded that Trump's approach to Venezuela was going to be 81 00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:40,080 Speaker 1: rather less I fact. I mean, it was going to 82 00:03:40,120 --> 00:03:44,800 Speaker 1: be a pragmatic approach, not regime change, not maximum pressure 83 00:03:44,800 --> 00:03:46,840 Speaker 1: as we saw under Trump won and that was the 84 00:03:46,840 --> 00:03:50,280 Speaker 1: way he started out. And then August of last year 85 00:03:51,040 --> 00:03:53,440 Speaker 1: we began to see this immense military build up which 86 00:03:53,600 --> 00:03:58,600 Speaker 1: was framed as a counter narcotics operation, and to be honest, 87 00:03:58,640 --> 00:04:02,360 Speaker 1: I think you know, in in Crisis Group and elsewhere, 88 00:04:02,400 --> 00:04:06,000 Speaker 1: it was largely interpreted as a bluff. On the one hand, 89 00:04:06,360 --> 00:04:09,560 Speaker 1: it's saber rattling in order to persuade Maduda to leave, 90 00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:13,000 Speaker 1: because the consequences of not doing so would be severe. 91 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:15,400 Speaker 1: On the assumption that that would be enough that there 92 00:04:15,400 --> 00:04:17,320 Speaker 1: wouldn't be any need to put, as they say, boots 93 00:04:17,320 --> 00:04:20,000 Speaker 1: on the ground, because clearly Trump was not willing to 94 00:04:20,040 --> 00:04:23,120 Speaker 1: do that, and so I think we, I think President 95 00:04:23,200 --> 00:04:27,080 Speaker 1: Maduda himself concluded, well, this is not going to really 96 00:04:27,080 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 1: come to anything. But the build up went on and 97 00:04:28,920 --> 00:04:30,880 Speaker 1: on and on, and you had the aircraft carrier, you know, 98 00:04:30,920 --> 00:04:34,280 Speaker 1: the General r Ford deployed to the Caribbean, this massive, 99 00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:37,479 Speaker 1: massive build up to the point where we began to say, well, 100 00:04:38,080 --> 00:04:40,760 Speaker 1: you know, they just can't just sail away, and Maduro 101 00:04:40,880 --> 00:04:43,520 Speaker 1: showed no signs of leaving. It became very hard to 102 00:04:43,600 --> 00:04:46,640 Speaker 1: understand how this was going to end. When it did 103 00:04:46,720 --> 00:04:49,839 Speaker 1: conclude with January the third, it wasn't any of the 104 00:04:49,839 --> 00:04:52,039 Speaker 1: scenarios that we had really anticipated. 105 00:04:52,480 --> 00:04:56,280 Speaker 2: Could you describe the uncertainty of those hours that followed 106 00:04:56,320 --> 00:04:59,200 Speaker 2: for you and for others who live in Venezuela, just 107 00:04:59,200 --> 00:05:02,080 Speaker 2: wondering what would happen next? And did it feel like 108 00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:04,360 Speaker 2: a vacuum was opening up? 109 00:05:04,920 --> 00:05:08,200 Speaker 1: It was all really very quick, actually, I mean it 110 00:05:08,279 --> 00:05:12,920 Speaker 1: almost was too quick for us to properly work out 111 00:05:13,000 --> 00:05:17,680 Speaker 1: what we were feeling about. I mean, the first sensation is, well, okay, 112 00:05:18,600 --> 00:05:23,040 Speaker 1: it's obviously a US attack. It's not a complete surprise 113 00:05:23,120 --> 00:05:26,599 Speaker 1: because Trump had been threatening this repeatedly, pretty much every 114 00:05:26,600 --> 00:05:30,000 Speaker 1: weekend for weeks before that. We'd been expecting some kind 115 00:05:30,000 --> 00:05:33,400 Speaker 1: of attack, So in that sense, it wasn't totally shocking. 116 00:05:33,440 --> 00:05:37,400 Speaker 1: What was really shocking was suddenly to realize Maduro was 117 00:05:37,720 --> 00:05:40,919 Speaker 1: snatched along with his wife. What did that mean. But 118 00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:42,880 Speaker 1: by the time we got around to trying to work 119 00:05:42,920 --> 00:05:45,920 Speaker 1: out what that might mean, you know, there was already 120 00:05:46,200 --> 00:05:50,040 Speaker 1: press conference in Washington with Trump saying, you know, announcing 121 00:05:50,040 --> 00:05:53,960 Speaker 1: the operation, and that was in a way the biggest 122 00:05:54,000 --> 00:05:56,839 Speaker 1: surprise of the whole morning, which was Trump saying, well, 123 00:05:57,200 --> 00:05:59,919 Speaker 1: Mario Corina Machaala was a great lady, but unfortunately she 124 00:06:00,120 --> 00:06:02,000 Speaker 1: doesn't have the support in ven as weulla to be 125 00:06:02,520 --> 00:06:06,360 Speaker 1: installed as the government. So we're going to be dealing 126 00:06:06,400 --> 00:06:09,800 Speaker 1: with Delcia Rodriguez, who's Medua's vice president. That was probably 127 00:06:09,800 --> 00:06:12,440 Speaker 1: the most surprising thing in those few hours. 128 00:06:12,680 --> 00:06:16,080 Speaker 2: What is the state of political power in Venezuela today? 129 00:06:16,120 --> 00:06:18,800 Speaker 2: So Maduro is gone, he's in a jail, cell and 130 00:06:18,920 --> 00:06:22,320 Speaker 2: Brooklyn DLCI. Rodriguez is in power on an interim basis, 131 00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:26,920 Speaker 2: Maria Kramachado is somewhere. We don't know exactly where. Who 132 00:06:26,960 --> 00:06:28,760 Speaker 2: is in control? And how would you assess the longevity 133 00:06:28,760 --> 00:06:30,560 Speaker 2: of the kind of political moment that we're in. 134 00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:34,960 Speaker 1: I think that's probably the key issue. Obviously, we heard 135 00:06:35,040 --> 00:06:38,680 Speaker 1: from President Trump very soon after January third. I can't 136 00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:40,120 Speaker 1: remember it was on the same day, but within a 137 00:06:40,160 --> 00:06:42,039 Speaker 1: couple of days at least, he was saying, you know, 138 00:06:42,080 --> 00:06:44,680 Speaker 1: the US is going to be running ven Azulla. We're 139 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:47,919 Speaker 1: looking around and going where are they, you know, because 140 00:06:48,040 --> 00:06:50,720 Speaker 1: there's nobody here on the ground. There's not been an embassy. 141 00:06:51,320 --> 00:06:53,360 Speaker 1: There is now they're in the reopened the embassy and 142 00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:57,240 Speaker 1: they're starting to establish a US diplomatic presence in Caracas. 143 00:06:57,240 --> 00:06:59,680 Speaker 1: But since twenty nineteen, there was no There were no 144 00:06:59,760 --> 00:07:03,640 Speaker 1: US diplomats in Venezuela. There certainly weren't boots on the ground, 145 00:07:03,880 --> 00:07:07,400 Speaker 1: there's no military occupation in Venezuela. So in what sense 146 00:07:07,440 --> 00:07:11,240 Speaker 1: is the US running Venezuela? And my immediate thought was 147 00:07:12,200 --> 00:07:14,800 Speaker 1: it seems to me the Venezuelan government is running Venea. 148 00:07:15,000 --> 00:07:17,600 Speaker 1: But of course then it becomes more complicated. Then you 149 00:07:17,680 --> 00:07:20,200 Speaker 1: have to work out, well, Okay, the US says that 150 00:07:20,200 --> 00:07:22,920 Speaker 1: they're going to be running Venezuela because if the Delcea 151 00:07:22,960 --> 00:07:27,320 Speaker 1: government doesn't do what they say, then there will be consequences. 152 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:30,480 Speaker 1: And therefore, you know, this is kind of a neo 153 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:34,200 Speaker 1: colonial sort of operation. But to try to run, especially 154 00:07:34,240 --> 00:07:36,920 Speaker 1: a country the size of Venezuela, country twice the size 155 00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:39,520 Speaker 1: of California, twice the size of Iraq, nearly thirty million 156 00:07:39,560 --> 00:07:45,240 Speaker 1: people topographically very difficult, politically, very difficult, full of guns 157 00:07:45,960 --> 00:07:50,320 Speaker 1: in one among the security forces and outside, How you're 158 00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:52,400 Speaker 1: going to do that? How are you going to run Venezuela. 159 00:07:52,560 --> 00:07:55,320 Speaker 1: So we're still working it out. As the honest answer 160 00:07:55,320 --> 00:07:56,680 Speaker 1: to that question, I think. 161 00:07:56,880 --> 00:07:59,080 Speaker 2: How do you think about the role that Delcia Rodriguez 162 00:07:59,200 --> 00:08:03,280 Speaker 2: is playing, the apparent closeness she has with the Trump administration, 163 00:08:04,200 --> 00:08:06,960 Speaker 2: the closeness that she had with Nicholas Maduro, the political 164 00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:09,000 Speaker 2: power that she's amassed as a result of her career 165 00:08:09,080 --> 00:08:12,200 Speaker 2: in Venezuela and politics, How she is navigating those those 166 00:08:12,200 --> 00:08:12,800 Speaker 2: two things. 167 00:08:13,240 --> 00:08:16,360 Speaker 1: De Elsie Rodriguez and her brother Jorge, who's the guy 168 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:18,680 Speaker 1: who runs the National Assembly and is a key figure 169 00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:21,520 Speaker 1: in all of this. He was Maduro's key negotiator for 170 00:08:21,560 --> 00:08:25,400 Speaker 1: a very long time with the opposition and with the US. 171 00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:31,120 Speaker 1: These two, the Rodriguez siblings, are smart people. They're very adaptable, 172 00:08:31,160 --> 00:08:33,920 Speaker 1: They're very pragmatic. They're also very ideological. I mean they 173 00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:39,240 Speaker 1: know ideologically they come from the same segment, if you like, 174 00:08:39,960 --> 00:08:43,240 Speaker 1: of the ideological spectrum as President Madula himself. They come 175 00:08:43,240 --> 00:08:46,520 Speaker 1: from the far left. But they are adaptable, and I 176 00:08:46,559 --> 00:08:49,960 Speaker 1: think that's the key to what ELSEI is able to 177 00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:54,080 Speaker 1: do right now, because she turned on a dime, I mean, 178 00:08:54,160 --> 00:08:57,520 Speaker 1: you know, and of course she has maintained the discourse, 179 00:08:57,600 --> 00:09:01,120 Speaker 1: the narrative for internal purposes about this being a socialist revolution, 180 00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:04,440 Speaker 1: anti imperialist and all the rest of it, whilst doing 181 00:09:04,480 --> 00:09:06,920 Speaker 1: her best to comply with what Trump needs. That's not 182 00:09:06,960 --> 00:09:09,319 Speaker 1: an easy thing to do. I think if anybody can 183 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:12,520 Speaker 1: do it, she can, and she's demonstrated that so far. 184 00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:15,920 Speaker 1: This is a power game. It's about staying in power, 185 00:09:16,600 --> 00:09:20,439 Speaker 1: and in particular, I think what divides so called moderates 186 00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:24,240 Speaker 1: from so called hardliners is whether or not they perceive 187 00:09:24,800 --> 00:09:28,120 Speaker 1: a future for themselves under some form of political transition. 188 00:09:28,520 --> 00:09:32,480 Speaker 1: I think the Rodriguez siblings can imagine. I don't think 189 00:09:32,480 --> 00:09:34,840 Speaker 1: they want it, but I think they can imagine surviving 190 00:09:34,880 --> 00:09:37,760 Speaker 1: a transition. But a lot of the people with guns 191 00:09:38,600 --> 00:09:41,640 Speaker 1: cannot imagine that, and for them it's an existential issue. 192 00:09:41,720 --> 00:09:45,440 Speaker 1: And so it's a case of day by day figuring 193 00:09:45,480 --> 00:09:48,440 Speaker 1: out where the boundaries are. But then, of course, apart 194 00:09:48,520 --> 00:09:51,080 Speaker 1: from that, the opposition is divided, and that I think 195 00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:54,200 Speaker 1: is one of the key obstacles that might lie in 196 00:09:54,240 --> 00:09:58,280 Speaker 1: the path of some form of political settlement, some form 197 00:09:58,320 --> 00:09:58,920 Speaker 1: of transition. 198 00:10:03,720 --> 00:10:06,680 Speaker 2: So what could us involvement in Venezuela tell us about 199 00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:10,000 Speaker 2: Trump's approach to other countries? And is the president's endgame 200 00:10:10,120 --> 00:10:21,560 Speaker 2: really just about oil? That's after the break After the 201 00:10:21,679 --> 00:10:24,959 Speaker 2: US captured Nicholas Maduro, President Trump said the US would 202 00:10:25,040 --> 00:10:29,120 Speaker 2: run Venezuela, which raised a bunch of questions. I asked 203 00:10:29,160 --> 00:10:32,800 Speaker 2: Phil Gunson of the International Crisis Group what Maduro's expatriation 204 00:10:33,000 --> 00:10:35,720 Speaker 2: has meant in real terms. I'd hope you and I 205 00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:38,120 Speaker 2: could talk about political transition. And I guess what's sort 206 00:10:38,160 --> 00:10:41,560 Speaker 2: of peculiar about this moment is you have Madurea being 207 00:10:41,559 --> 00:10:43,720 Speaker 2: removed from power, yet it seems like there hasn't been 208 00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:47,440 Speaker 2: much of a political transition yet I imagine the key 209 00:10:47,480 --> 00:10:52,120 Speaker 2: to that is elections. At some point are they being 210 00:10:52,160 --> 00:10:54,520 Speaker 2: talked about what would they need to look like to 211 00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:56,680 Speaker 2: remove for what imagine is a huge hurdle here for 212 00:10:56,720 --> 00:10:58,560 Speaker 2: there being any kind of viable political change. 213 00:10:59,040 --> 00:11:01,960 Speaker 1: Well, as we like to say in Crisis Group, a 214 00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:04,560 Speaker 1: transition is a process, not an event. And one of 215 00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:07,319 Speaker 1: the things I think that is problematic about the way 216 00:11:07,400 --> 00:11:10,959 Speaker 1: some people in the opposition regard the term transition and 217 00:11:11,559 --> 00:11:14,960 Speaker 1: the idea the concept of transition is that they don't 218 00:11:15,040 --> 00:11:18,360 Speaker 1: distinguish between transition and regime change. In other words, transition 219 00:11:18,400 --> 00:11:21,120 Speaker 1: for them is you leave power, we take power. That's 220 00:11:21,120 --> 00:11:24,960 Speaker 1: a transition. A transition for us is a process whereby 221 00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:30,160 Speaker 1: the government that is still in power concedes certain things 222 00:11:30,400 --> 00:11:34,079 Speaker 1: over a period of time. The opposition also concedes certain things, 223 00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:36,920 Speaker 1: and they come to an agreement about where this process 224 00:11:36,960 --> 00:11:41,240 Speaker 1: is going, what the end results should be. Elections, at 225 00:11:41,320 --> 00:11:46,319 Speaker 1: least a presidential election, to my mind, should be closer 226 00:11:46,360 --> 00:11:48,600 Speaker 1: towards the end of that process than the beginning. 227 00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:52,319 Speaker 2: What is the US getting from this leadership change? I 228 00:11:52,400 --> 00:11:55,560 Speaker 2: suppose it's somebody who will return their phone calls. But 229 00:11:55,640 --> 00:11:58,800 Speaker 2: what makes Delsier Drigez more palatable to the US, and 230 00:11:58,800 --> 00:12:01,120 Speaker 2: I should say US leadership the Trump administration than the 231 00:12:01,200 --> 00:12:02,120 Speaker 2: Nicholas Madruau was. 232 00:12:02,960 --> 00:12:06,280 Speaker 1: If you ask some people, they would say, oh, it's oil, right, 233 00:12:06,320 --> 00:12:09,120 Speaker 1: I mean Trump wants the oil, Dolsy is giving in 234 00:12:09,160 --> 00:12:11,920 Speaker 1: the oil, and therefore you know, that's the beginning in 235 00:12:11,960 --> 00:12:13,480 Speaker 1: the end of the story. I think it's a lot 236 00:12:13,480 --> 00:12:16,720 Speaker 1: more complicated that and I don't actually think that oil 237 00:12:17,520 --> 00:12:23,320 Speaker 1: in the purely material sense is necessarily even most of 238 00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:29,080 Speaker 1: what it's about. I think the US wants a stable, 239 00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:36,320 Speaker 1: friendly Venezuela, open to US capital, that excludes forces seen 240 00:12:36,360 --> 00:12:38,600 Speaker 1: by the US as hostile to US interests. 241 00:12:38,400 --> 00:12:40,840 Speaker 2: So part of this grander plan for the continent, and 242 00:12:40,880 --> 00:12:41,400 Speaker 2: even beyond. 243 00:12:41,440 --> 00:12:44,120 Speaker 1: I mean, it's a geopolitical issue. And you know that 244 00:12:44,200 --> 00:12:47,040 Speaker 1: the fact of what happened in January the third in Venezuela, 245 00:12:47,960 --> 00:12:50,640 Speaker 1: that the very facts of that, the way it happened, 246 00:12:50,640 --> 00:12:55,840 Speaker 1: what happened, then the implications of that are particularly significant 247 00:12:55,840 --> 00:12:58,040 Speaker 1: for the region and the way the US relates to 248 00:12:58,080 --> 00:13:02,079 Speaker 1: the region and vice versa. But they're also have implications beyond. 249 00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:04,240 Speaker 1: I mean, I think, for example, that what we're now 250 00:13:04,280 --> 00:13:09,640 Speaker 1: seeing around Iran is partly Trump saying, well, look, at 251 00:13:09,640 --> 00:13:11,960 Speaker 1: what really well in Venezuela. I mean, you know, let's 252 00:13:12,080 --> 00:13:13,960 Speaker 1: try and do the same in Iran. There's a sense 253 00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:18,559 Speaker 1: in which the US was emboldened by that event to say, oh, well, look, 254 00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:20,320 Speaker 1: we don't even need to put boots on the ground. 255 00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:25,199 Speaker 1: We can do these really you know, very sophisticated military operations, 256 00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:26,760 Speaker 1: and we can make people do what we want. 257 00:13:26,920 --> 00:13:29,959 Speaker 2: You mentioned oil, and the President talks an awful lot 258 00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:32,960 Speaker 2: about the potential for that to be good for Venezuela 259 00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:35,559 Speaker 2: and good for the US if US energy companies were 260 00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:39,559 Speaker 2: to go into Venezuela, build new infrastructure, repair old infrastructure, 261 00:13:40,320 --> 00:13:43,480 Speaker 2: that could benefit both countries. First of all, I'm wondering, 262 00:13:43,600 --> 00:13:46,760 Speaker 2: just does the prospect of that has that improved the 263 00:13:46,760 --> 00:13:49,120 Speaker 2: economy in Venezuela at all? Just the fact that the 264 00:13:49,240 --> 00:13:52,520 Speaker 2: US is showing more interest in improving the economic situation 265 00:13:52,559 --> 00:13:53,400 Speaker 2: in Venezuela. 266 00:13:53,559 --> 00:13:56,959 Speaker 1: Yes, and no. The most immediate impact of that is, Okay, 267 00:13:57,040 --> 00:14:00,000 Speaker 1: the US took something like fifty million bounds of oil, 268 00:14:00,640 --> 00:14:03,520 Speaker 1: sold it more or less at market prices, and via 269 00:14:03,640 --> 00:14:08,560 Speaker 1: complicated financial arrangement, sent hundreds of millions of dollars into Venezuela, 270 00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:11,600 Speaker 1: which were then sold by a set of private banks 271 00:14:11,679 --> 00:14:14,760 Speaker 1: on the open market for more or less rates. So 272 00:14:14,960 --> 00:14:17,360 Speaker 1: that helped to bring down the exchange rate, but it's 273 00:14:17,440 --> 00:14:20,960 Speaker 1: not yet filtered through or trickled down if you like, 274 00:14:21,040 --> 00:14:24,480 Speaker 1: to the extent that ordinary Venezuelan's doing their weekly shopping 275 00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:28,120 Speaker 1: can see a benefit. One of the huge problems that 276 00:14:28,120 --> 00:14:30,560 Speaker 1: we have in Venezuela is that this is a country 277 00:14:30,760 --> 00:14:32,920 Speaker 1: which ought to be rich, and it ought to be 278 00:14:33,400 --> 00:14:35,360 Speaker 1: you know, you ought to have you know, a per 279 00:14:35,400 --> 00:14:38,800 Speaker 1: capita income among the highest in the region, used to 280 00:14:38,840 --> 00:14:42,320 Speaker 1: be among the highest in the world, and yet more 281 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:44,840 Speaker 1: than eighty percent of the population lives in poverty. And 282 00:14:44,880 --> 00:14:47,240 Speaker 1: it's also worth mentioning that one of the first things 283 00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:50,000 Speaker 1: Trump did when he came back to power last year 284 00:14:50,120 --> 00:14:53,680 Speaker 1: was to slash Overseas aid and that had an immediate 285 00:14:53,680 --> 00:14:57,840 Speaker 1: impact on malnutrition in Venezuela because the World Food Program 286 00:14:57,920 --> 00:15:04,000 Speaker 1: immediately found its budgets. So right now Venezuelans have hopes 287 00:15:04,240 --> 00:15:06,920 Speaker 1: that this will improve, but what economists says, it's going 288 00:15:06,920 --> 00:15:09,600 Speaker 1: to say probably six to eight months before the real 289 00:15:09,640 --> 00:15:13,920 Speaker 1: benefits they if they do filter down eventually do do that. 290 00:15:15,280 --> 00:15:17,280 Speaker 2: There is this trip a couple of weeks ago Chris Wright, 291 00:15:17,360 --> 00:15:20,680 Speaker 2: the Energy Secretary traveled to Caracas, and my colleague and 292 00:15:20,760 --> 00:15:23,480 Speaker 2: Rehorder and was on that trip with him, and there 293 00:15:23,560 --> 00:15:26,480 Speaker 2: is just something extorted about that image of seeing a 294 00:15:26,600 --> 00:15:29,560 Speaker 2: US Energy sectory, a cabinet member on the ground in Venezuela. 295 00:15:30,160 --> 00:15:32,240 Speaker 2: What did that trip signal to you? And here I'm 296 00:15:32,240 --> 00:15:34,280 Speaker 2: getting into the kind of longer term prospects of US 297 00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:35,840 Speaker 2: engagement in the energy sector. 298 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:38,200 Speaker 1: I mean, one of the striking things about that was 299 00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:42,240 Speaker 1: just reading the body language and the fact that you know, 300 00:15:43,040 --> 00:15:46,120 Speaker 1: the Energy Secretary and the interim President were, you know, 301 00:15:46,240 --> 00:15:48,840 Speaker 1: chatting away happily to each other and touring oil installations. 302 00:15:49,240 --> 00:15:52,080 Speaker 1: This is a really strange thing to see in Venezuela. 303 00:15:52,760 --> 00:15:56,720 Speaker 1: But Dela Rodriguez certainly is not reluctant to see the 304 00:15:56,720 --> 00:15:59,240 Speaker 1: economy open up and more money come in. And in 305 00:15:59,240 --> 00:16:02,840 Speaker 1: that sense, there's an awful lot of common ground. Where, 306 00:16:02,880 --> 00:16:05,480 Speaker 1: of course it may break down is if the US 307 00:16:05,600 --> 00:16:08,520 Speaker 1: starts to insist on a political transition. And so the 308 00:16:08,640 --> 00:16:11,800 Speaker 1: danger that we see, I think, is that this could 309 00:16:11,800 --> 00:16:15,200 Speaker 1: reach a new or we could basically maintain this new 310 00:16:15,200 --> 00:16:20,080 Speaker 1: equilibrium of friendly relations between Washington Carrakas that have absolutely 311 00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:22,720 Speaker 1: nothing to do with what the bulk of Venezuelans ultimately 312 00:16:22,760 --> 00:16:24,720 Speaker 1: want to see because they're not part of the discussion. 313 00:16:24,840 --> 00:16:26,800 Speaker 2: I want to ask you lastly, what you'll be watching 314 00:16:26,880 --> 00:16:30,520 Speaker 2: for in the months ahead, what's most important to pay 315 00:16:30,560 --> 00:16:31,080 Speaker 2: attention to. 316 00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:36,640 Speaker 1: You know, I think what most concerns me and what 317 00:16:36,720 --> 00:16:39,480 Speaker 1: most concerns us in Crisis Group is precisely what I 318 00:16:39,480 --> 00:16:42,120 Speaker 1: said about the fact that this is a dialogue between 319 00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:45,080 Speaker 1: two governments, neither of which we're elected by Venezuelans. Really, 320 00:16:45,160 --> 00:16:49,720 Speaker 1: let's face it, over the heads of the Venezuelan people. 321 00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:52,840 Speaker 1: What I think is going to be one of our 322 00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:56,280 Speaker 1: biggest questions is to what extent is the US prepared 323 00:16:56,320 --> 00:17:00,480 Speaker 1: to push for this, given that moves towards a political 324 00:17:00,480 --> 00:17:03,320 Speaker 1: transition could destabilize the rest of what they're interested in. 325 00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:07,560 Speaker 1: They could create a backlash, for example, on among the 326 00:17:07,560 --> 00:17:09,359 Speaker 1: people who fear they might end up in jail of 327 00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:12,640 Speaker 1: the transition happened. That's the sort of thing that we're 328 00:17:12,640 --> 00:17:13,480 Speaker 1: really looking at. 329 00:17:13,720 --> 00:17:14,640 Speaker 2: Phil. Thank you very much. 330 00:17:14,840 --> 00:17:15,919 Speaker 1: Thank you, it's been a pleasure. 331 00:17:22,960 --> 00:17:25,320 Speaker 2: This is the Big Take from Bloomberg News. I'm David Gera. 332 00:17:25,640 --> 00:17:27,919 Speaker 2: To get more from The Big Take and unlimited access 333 00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:31,040 Speaker 2: to all of Bloomberg dot com, subscribe today at Bloomberg 334 00:17:31,080 --> 00:17:34,640 Speaker 2: dot com slash podcast offer. If you like this episode, 335 00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:36,720 Speaker 2: make sure to follow and review The Big Take wherever 336 00:17:36,760 --> 00:17:39,119 Speaker 2: you listen to podcasts. It helps people find the show. 337 00:17:39,520 --> 00:17:42,720 Speaker 2: Also check out Bloomberg This Weekend, our new live weekend 338 00:17:42,800 --> 00:17:46,280 Speaker 2: morning show. We bring news, analysis, and some fun to 339 00:17:46,320 --> 00:17:49,320 Speaker 2: your Saturdays and Sundays. Starting at seven am Eastern Time, 340 00:17:49,520 --> 00:17:52,800 Speaker 2: Bloomberg This Weekend Live on Bloomberg TV and Bloomberg Radio 341 00:17:53,000 --> 00:17:56,280 Speaker 2: and streaming at bloomberg dot com. Thanks for listening The 342 00:17:56,280 --> 00:18:01,080 Speaker 2: Big Take. We'll be back tomorrow