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Speaker 1: What's up, guys?

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Speaker 2: How are you welcome into a Friday morning edition of

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Speaker 2: the Dale Juice Podcast. My name is Matt Parolt. You

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Speaker 2: guys can follow me on Twitter at Sports Talk Matt.

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Speaker 2: Every morning here for the Early Juice, always being brought

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Speaker 2: to you by Bett MGM wherever you get your audio

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Speaker 2: podcast in YouTube for the video. So if you're watching

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Speaker 2: on YouTube, I can show you we are. We are

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Speaker 2: one hundred percent drinking at the moment. Because that game

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Speaker 2: got over about thirty minutes ago. I'm about as mad

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Speaker 2: as I've been in a really long time. And it's

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Speaker 2: only you know, one point one units went two and

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Speaker 2: two on the prop bets. That Donald Parham situation, Parnhum

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Speaker 2: Parham situation was scary as hell.

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Speaker 1: I mean that hopefully, guys.

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Speaker 2: Okay, So that was, you know, for the first drive

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Speaker 2: of the game, kind of a precursor for the whole night. Unfortunately,

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Speaker 2: but Kelsey gets there for us. We get over by

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Speaker 2: half a yard on Justin Herbert over fifteen and a half.

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Speaker 2: He had sixteen. So we just got that Kelsey easy.

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Speaker 2: But Clyde Edwards Hilaire does not go for fifty six

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Speaker 2: and a half and then Donald par haam situation obviously,

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Speaker 2: so two and two on the props, So down a

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Speaker 2: little juice there, and then down one unit because the

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Speaker 2: Chargers head coach is a bleeping moron. And I hate

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Speaker 2: that I'm this mad, and I hate that I'm resorting

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Speaker 2: into name calling for people because I hate that. I

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Speaker 2: hate that I'm doing this.

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Speaker 1: I hate that. I hate that I'm this mad.

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Speaker 2: But there's just certain things in football that you're just

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Speaker 2: the analytical community. I've been talking about this for the

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Speaker 2: last couple of weeks. You guys are doing to football

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Speaker 2: what baseball had happened to it. You're just you're screwing

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Speaker 2: the game up. You're just growing the game up. And

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Speaker 2: I gotta say it, you're driving me crazy. And I'm

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Speaker 2: really if I hear one more time about what the

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Speaker 2: analytics say you should do in a football game. I'm

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Speaker 2: mad that I punched the bag and went to the

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Speaker 2: gym today because I need to go back. And I'm

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Speaker 2: that angry at the moment as to you leave so

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Speaker 2: many points on the field.

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Speaker 1: Like what are you doing?

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Speaker 2: The game should have been twenty three thirteen, the lead

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Speaker 2: should have been seven at the half. I mean, there's

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Speaker 2: just so many things where you're like, take the damn points, guy,

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Speaker 2: Just take the damn points. Stop being an idiot. Stop

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Speaker 2: trying to look like the smartest guy in the room.

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Speaker 2: What the hell is it with head coaches with the

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Speaker 2: Chargers who just won't do the smart thing. I don't

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Speaker 2: care what the book or the sheet tells you. You're

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Speaker 2: supposed to do, all right, that game was for the division.

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Speaker 2: That was for the division. You can't just screw that

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Speaker 2: up at that point. This is the NFL, this is

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Speaker 2: the highest level. You can't screw this up. You can't

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Speaker 2: be that stupid over and over and over again.

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Speaker 1: It just doesn't Your locker has to look at you

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Speaker 1: and go like, man, you're a clown. What are you doing.

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Speaker 2: We're trying to win against the two time defending AFC

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Speaker 2: champs at home.

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Speaker 1: We beat them already. We win this game and we're tied.

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Speaker 1: We have the tiebreaker against the Chiefs. We're in first place.

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Speaker 2: Going down the stretch, the defense was gassed, absolutely gassed.

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Speaker 2: Look I saw it, everyone saw it coming from a

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Speaker 2: mile away that the defense was exhausted. They have nothing left.

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Speaker 2: It was an impressive run by Kelsey, but it was

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Speaker 2: just like they couldn't do anything. They were exhausted. They'd

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Speaker 2: been on the field for so long that they just

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Speaker 2: got tired. And I don't blame the defense for give

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Speaker 2: up a touchdown there. That's just the rules in the NFL,

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Speaker 2: which suck. I mean, the overtime rules suck. Okay, let's

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Speaker 2: just be honest. This idea of like both teams don't

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Speaker 2: get to touch the football is so dumb and has

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Speaker 2: to change. It really is stupid. Third time in NFL

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Speaker 2: history that three games have been decided on touchdowns in

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Speaker 2: overtime to end the game.

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Speaker 1: And I'm one and two. Okay.

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Speaker 2: I got burned with the Cowboys and the Patriots. I

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Speaker 2: was on plus three and a half for the Patriots

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Speaker 2: Cowboys touchdown.

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Speaker 1: And they cover. I got it with the butt with

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Speaker 1: the Bills.

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Speaker 2: Last week we got that win with the Bucks scoring

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Speaker 2: a touchdown that made it one and one, and now

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Speaker 2: I'm one and two. On those overtime touchdowns, you knew

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Speaker 2: a field goal was coming, but they had to find

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Speaker 2: a way to stop them, and a coin flip just

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Speaker 2: it just sucks. I mean, there's no way around it

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Speaker 2: like that, the fact that one team does not touch

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Speaker 2: the football and it's just a tire defense in overtime

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Speaker 2: in a big game and the offenses don't both get

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Speaker 2: a chance.

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Speaker 1: It really is stupid. It's typical of the NFL. Really.

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Speaker 2: I mean, it's just it's a stupid rule. Everyone knows

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Speaker 2: it's a stupid rule, but they just leave it alone

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Speaker 2: for whatever reason, because it's like they're trying to have this,

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Speaker 2: like we're concerned about player safety, Like no, you're not,

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Speaker 2: Like what are you doing? No you're not, Like it's

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Speaker 2: I don't know, I'm so angry. I'm just yeah, just

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Speaker 2: I cracked open the Scotch and I'm just yeah, I'm here,

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Speaker 2: I'm I'm I don't know. I'm just beside myself at

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Speaker 2: the moment. And it's only a one unit loss. It

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Speaker 2: just shouldn't we were on the right side. And it

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Speaker 2: just infuriates me. I shouldn't bother me, but it infuriates

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Speaker 2: me when people pound their chest to be like chiefs

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Speaker 2: all the way man.

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Speaker 1: Like like what do you like? What? No?

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Speaker 2: Like, Okay, I'm happy for you you cash, that's great,

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Speaker 2: but you shouldn't have like.

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Speaker 1: If you had the under I'm sorry.

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Speaker 2: The play was to tease it, right, That was the

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Speaker 2: play tease it up to nine and I thought about

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Speaker 2: doing that, I really did, but I don't. Like I'm

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Speaker 2: trying to stay away in totals. And for that reason,

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Speaker 2: why tonight? You know the game was under under under?

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Speaker 2: How many turnovers did they have inside the red zone

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Speaker 2: stopping on fourth down? Like, I mean, that game should

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Speaker 2: have flown over, but it was trending under under, and

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Speaker 2: then what was like thirty five points in the fourth

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Speaker 2: quarter in overtime got scored. Like that's just stupid, dumb game.

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Speaker 2: So here's where I am today. I've already given you

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Speaker 2: the plays for both bowl games. I've already given you

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Speaker 2: Toledo minus ten and Northern Illinois plus ten and a half.

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Speaker 2: I'm taking both MAC teams here plus the points and

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Speaker 2: laying the points for.

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Speaker 1: Their bowl games tonight.

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Speaker 2: So I give that last week when I was brain

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Speaker 2: dead and I thought I was betting last week. Now

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Speaker 2: I'm betting this week because bowl season now is here,

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Speaker 2: so that's already in play. So what I'm gonna do

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Speaker 2: here is I'm gonna give you my first NFL play

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Speaker 2: for the weekend. And this may be a little bit

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Speaker 2: of a controversial pick here. Okay, let's talk Titans Pittsburgh Steelers.

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Speaker 2: Line is one and a half. It's pretty readily available

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Speaker 2: everywhere right now. Okay, Titans on the year, eight and

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Speaker 2: five against the number. Obviously they're really banged up. No

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Speaker 2: AJ Brown and no Derrick Henry. Pittsburgh five and eight

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Speaker 2: against the number. Pittsburgh at home, two and five against

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Speaker 2: the number. Tennessee is four and two on the road

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Speaker 2: against the number.

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Speaker 1: Let's just quickly look at this.

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Speaker 2: Idea that Pittsburgh as a home or road dog under

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Speaker 2: Mike Tomlin is a great bet. Okay, Buffalo, they were

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Speaker 2: six and a half point dogs. Game one, they won

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Speaker 2: by seven. Okay, Tomlin won to zero as a dog

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Speaker 2: against the spread Green Bay on the road, catching six

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Speaker 2: and a half, they lost by ten. Didn't cover against

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Speaker 2: Denver at home, catching plus one and a half, they

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Speaker 2: won by eight. Two and one against the number they

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Speaker 2: were catching five and a half or five against the

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Speaker 2: Cleveland Browns they won the game by five. Okay, three

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Speaker 2: and one against the number. And then we get into

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Speaker 2: the later part of the year where of the last

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Speaker 2: four games they have been a dog in all four

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Speaker 2: of those games, they have lost three of the four

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Speaker 2: games they've been a dog to Straight up, there are

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Speaker 2: two and two against the number six and a half

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Speaker 2: point dog to the Chargers on the road, lost by

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Speaker 2: four three and a half point dogs to the Tizzanay

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Speaker 2: Bengals at home. Ars are on the road lost by

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Speaker 2: thirty one four point dogs at home against Baltimore. That

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Speaker 2: game should have gone to overtime, but it did not.

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Speaker 2: They went for two. They won by one they were

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Speaker 2: very fortunate, and then three and a half points, losing

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Speaker 2: by eight as three and a half point dogs last

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Speaker 2: week on the road at the Minnesota Vikings. On the

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Speaker 2: flip side, the Titans aren't playing great.

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Speaker 1: We know this.

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Speaker 2: They're very banged up, but they still have Ryan Tannehill

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Speaker 2: and they still have Julio Jones to be out there

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Speaker 2: and some guys, some backup players who have come in

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Speaker 2: and played pretty well. I like this Titans defense a lot.

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Speaker 2: They're very hard to run on. More in than the

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Speaker 2: here in a second. But last week they won by

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Speaker 2: laying eight and a half. They won twenty to nothing

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Speaker 2: against Jacksonville. Okay, before that, they're catching seven points on

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Speaker 2: the road against New England. They got punked, lost by

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Speaker 2: twenty three. The week before that that took on Houston

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Speaker 2: lost by nine laing ten points.

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Speaker 1: That was like the what.

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Speaker 2: Then the game before that, they were three point favorites

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Speaker 2: and they won by two against New Orleans. I actually

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Speaker 2: think the Titans got a little right yesterday or last

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Speaker 2: week against Jacksonville. Okay, I think their defense started to

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Speaker 2: come around. I think their offense started to find some identity,

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Speaker 2: trying to find where they're.

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Speaker 1: Going to go.

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Speaker 2: Okay, I think Pittsburgh is a bad team. I've been

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Speaker 2: saying this for a while. I think they're a bad team.

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Speaker 2: And I'm just not believing in this team. It's why

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Speaker 2: I bet the under eight and a half wins for

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Speaker 2: this team. They're six and six on the year, Okay,

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Speaker 2: twelve games in and I just look at the Titans

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Speaker 2: at nine and four and I'm like, hmm. I just

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Speaker 2: think this Titans team defensively is going to be able

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Speaker 2: to make this offense one dimensional for Pittsburgh. The Titans

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Speaker 2: right now, to run on them is not easy.

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Speaker 1: Okay.

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Speaker 2: They are the number two rushing defense per game given

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Speaker 2: up in the NFL ninety point nine yards per game,

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Speaker 2: number two. They're number three in terms of rushes. They're

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Speaker 2: hard to run on and you stop running on them.

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Speaker 2: Four rushes per four yards per rush is eighth best.

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Speaker 2: They're number two in wayed Dvoa against the run right now,

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Speaker 2: Now you can throw on these guys a little bit, okay,

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Speaker 2: And six point six yards per pass play two hundred

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Speaker 2: and fifty yards, it's fifteenth and twenty second in the NFL.

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Speaker 2: But I think if you make Ben Roethlisberger stay in

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Speaker 2: the pocket and you let that defensive pass rush go

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Speaker 2: after it, I think it's going to be a real

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Speaker 2: low scoring, slobber knocker of a football game. I like

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Speaker 2: the under, but I'm not playing totals like you guys

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Speaker 2: know here. I got a short number here, and I

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Speaker 2: think I got the better football team. I don't care

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Speaker 2: the nine wins. That doesn't bother me all that much.

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Speaker 2: And their steam coming in here. On Pittsburgh, okay, it

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Speaker 2: was one and a half, went to two has been down.

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Speaker 2: I saw as low as a pick at certain books.

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Speaker 2: It's been pingponging a round. Okay, there's a lot of

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Speaker 2: disagreements on this, but I don't like Pittsburgh and I

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Speaker 2: don't buy this. Mike Tomlin is a dog narrative because

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Speaker 2: you know what Mike Tomlin might close as a pick

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Speaker 2: or a favorite. So right now. Mike Tomlin is a

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Speaker 2: dog here on a Friday. But I don't know if

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Speaker 2: Mike Tomlin's gonna be a dog come Sunday. Okay, So

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Speaker 2: this total being forty three, it's one and a half.

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Speaker 2: I just I mean, I guess I could get burned

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Speaker 2: on that hook, and you may want to wait, and

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Speaker 2: you may find one. I laid the one and a half.

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Speaker 2: I just think I got Mike Vrabel on the road

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Speaker 2: and a chance for the Titans to get ten wins,

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Speaker 2: get a victory. The ten wins will cash our over

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Speaker 2: ten over nine and a half wins for the Titans.

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Speaker 2: So they win this, they cash that ticket, they win this,

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Speaker 2: and we get the cash on the game. And Pittsburgh

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Speaker 2: is now down, and there's a good shot that Pittsburgh

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Speaker 2: winds up, does not getting does not get the over

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Speaker 2: eight and a half wins. I think they're gonna get

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Speaker 2: to eight. I don't think Pittsburgh's gonna get to nine.

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Speaker 2: And that's obviously the number that we're gonna be watching closely,

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Speaker 2: is do get to nine.

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Speaker 1: The Steelers remaining.

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Speaker 2: Schedule, by the way, they play the Titans at home

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Speaker 2: on Sunday. They play at the Chiefs then they play

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Speaker 2: home for the Browns and they play at the Ravens. Okay,

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Speaker 2: they're six six and one currently right now, and I

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Speaker 2: think they're gonna win maybe one more game. Maybe they

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Speaker 2: beat the Browns, maybe they beat the Ravens.

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Speaker 1: But I don't know.

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Speaker 2: This is a game. The Titans win this game. I

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Speaker 2: think there's a real good shot that Pittsburgh wins six

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Speaker 2: games and they lose out and they just fall flat

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Speaker 2: and we cash that under eight and half ticket. I'm

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Speaker 2: going with the Titans here. I know a lot of

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Speaker 2: people that are gonna go and ride the train and

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Speaker 2: ride the trend of Mike Tomlin as a dog. I'm

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Speaker 2: just not buying it personally. I'm just not a believer

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Speaker 2: in it. I'm gonna go ahead and take the mins

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Speaker 2: or lay the one and a half with the Titans

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Speaker 2: for one unit here coming up on Sunday. All right,

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Speaker 2: So we got Toledo minus ten, We've got Northern Illinois

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Speaker 2: plus ten and a half, and now we've got the

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Speaker 2: Titans minus one and a half on the road at Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 2: I'm not going to get over this loss for the

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Speaker 2: Chargers for a bit. Saturday night, we got Patriots, Colts

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Speaker 2: we got a wacko game with the Cleveland Browns.

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Speaker 1: And the Las Vegas Raiders. I mean, what are we

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Speaker 1: up to?

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Speaker 2: Like nineteen players now for Cleveland in the COVID protocols,

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Speaker 2: We've got twenty five players for the Rams in the

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Speaker 2: COVID protocols.

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Speaker 1: I mean, what are we doing.

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Speaker 2: I'm just gonna go have a couple more drinks and

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Speaker 2: go to bed, and then we're gonna come back tomorrow,

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Speaker 2: hopefully be a little happier in a better mood. But

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Speaker 2: just a awful coaching performance, Brandon, Stay, that loss, your

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Speaker 2: team not winning the division, and your team may be

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Speaker 2: missing the postseason is all on you.

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Speaker 1: Awful.

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Speaker 2: My name's Matt Paroltica. Follow me on Twitter at sports

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Speaker 2: Talk Matt. Each and every morning, hopefully a better morning tomorrow.

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Speaker 2: The Juice Podcast here on bettingpros dot com.