WEBVTT - Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend - March 21st, 2025 0:00:00.280 --> 0:00:07.240 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 0:00:08.760 --> 0:00:12.800 This is Bloomberg Business Week Insight from the reporters and 0:00:12.960 --> 0:00:16.960 editors that bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus 0:00:17.160 --> 0:00:20.959 global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week 0:00:20.960 --> 0:00:25.880 Podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenoveek on Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:26.760 --> 0:00:29.720 Hi, everyone, Welcome to the Bloomberg Business Week Weekend Podcast. 0:00:30.360 --> 0:00:33.240 This past week, big macro issues certainly on the minds 0:00:33.280 --> 0:00:34.040 of investors. 0:00:34.320 --> 0:00:35.280 This is Fedhair J. 0:00:35.520 --> 0:00:39.640 Powell, in the latest FOMC meeting and decision downplayed growth 0:00:39.680 --> 0:00:42.959 concerns in the impact of President Trump's trade war on prices, 0:00:43.080 --> 0:00:48.000 even calling the inflationary effect transitory. The President responded by 0:00:48.040 --> 0:00:51.560 suggesting the FED should cut interest rates. Still, the US 0:00:51.600 --> 0:00:54.200 Central Bank said that two rate cuts are on the table. 0:00:54.240 --> 0:00:56.760 This year, the war in Ukraine entered a new chapter 0:00:56.960 --> 0:01:00.000 after Donald Trump's calls with both Russian and Ukrainian president 0:01:00.000 --> 0:01:02.880 cidents led to a thirty day truce preventing strikes on 0:01:02.920 --> 0:01:06.640 each other's power infrastructure. So this hour we tackled nearly 0:01:06.720 --> 0:01:09.760 three year war with the two leading experts on Russia 0:01:10.000 --> 0:01:11.800 and whether these talks have any. 0:01:11.600 --> 0:01:15.480 Merit, Plus all things Elon from SpaceX to Tesla to 0:01:15.640 --> 0:01:18.120 Doje and x. It's been quite a week for the 0:01:18.120 --> 0:01:21.080 world's richest person. And in our next hour, a read 0:01:21.160 --> 0:01:24.880 on the consumer with Carnival CEO Josh Weinstein, plus the 0:01:24.880 --> 0:01:27.880 affordability crisis at US colleges and how some of the 0:01:27.959 --> 0:01:31.240 nation's top schools are addressing it. Also we do it 0:01:31.280 --> 0:01:33.280 all by the way, in case you haven't noticed, we're 0:01:33.319 --> 0:01:35.800 going to talk about protein packed, low carb meals with 0:01:36.040 --> 0:01:39.640 Mediterranean flair from a self taught cook who you probably 0:01:39.680 --> 0:01:40.720 know from Instagram. 0:01:40.959 --> 0:01:43.000 All that to come. We begin, though, with the latest 0:01:43.000 --> 0:01:45.560 in the Russia Ukraine conflict. A voice that we've turned 0:01:45.600 --> 0:01:48.080 to often is doctor Angela Sten, a senior fellow at 0:01:48.120 --> 0:01:51.640 the Brookings Institution at a former National Intelligence officer for 0:01:51.720 --> 0:01:55.160 Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council who also 0:01:55.240 --> 0:01:57.440 served in the Office of Policy Planning at the US 0:01:57.520 --> 0:02:00.200 Department of State. She's the author of the twenty nineteen 0:02:00.200 --> 0:02:04.760 book Putin's World, Russia Against the West and with the Rest. 0:02:04.640 --> 0:02:07.120 And the way we got here is right. The President 0:02:07.120 --> 0:02:09.640 Trump said during the campaign that he was going to 0:02:09.720 --> 0:02:12.560 end this war in twenty four hours. It would never 0:02:12.600 --> 0:02:15.680 have started had he been president at the time. It 0:02:15.720 --> 0:02:18.480 took a little more than twenty four hours to get 0:02:18.520 --> 0:02:21.960 this particular phone call with Putin, although we know that 0:02:22.000 --> 0:02:27.359 he had previous ones after his election. And so he 0:02:27.400 --> 0:02:30.480 got the Ukrainians by putting pressure on them to agree 0:02:30.480 --> 0:02:33.280 to a thirty day total cease fire, and that's what 0:02:33.320 --> 0:02:35.839 he said he wants from the Russians. I've just been 0:02:35.840 --> 0:02:39.480 reading the Russian readout, the Kremlins readout of the talks. 0:02:39.639 --> 0:02:42.880 It's a little different from the one that we got 0:02:42.919 --> 0:02:47.520 from the US side, and it mentions that Trump asked 0:02:47.639 --> 0:02:53.200 Putin for a cease fire on hitting energy and infrastructure targets, 0:02:53.440 --> 0:02:56.880 and it said that, you know, Putin was favorably inclined 0:02:56.919 --> 0:02:59.959 to it, It didn't actually necessarily say that he agreed 0:03:00.080 --> 0:03:01.560 with it. And a lot of it had to do 0:03:01.680 --> 0:03:05.320 with the restoration of US Russian relations, and apparently they're 0:03:05.360 --> 0:03:09.720 going to organize hockey games between Russia and the United States. 0:03:10.080 --> 0:03:13.200 But the thing that's most notable in the Russian one, 0:03:13.320 --> 0:03:16.360 and I think your correspondent already alluded to it, is 0:03:16.400 --> 0:03:19.720 that Putin's saying that they have to get to the 0:03:19.760 --> 0:03:23.920 fundamental causes, the root causes of why this war broke out, 0:03:24.080 --> 0:03:28.320 and that's going to go right back to NATO to 0:03:28.680 --> 0:03:32.360 Ukraine wanting to be part of the West and to 0:03:32.440 --> 0:03:36.480 putin essentially saying that can happen. So I will be 0:03:36.920 --> 0:03:39.640 curious to see how this works out. I'd also like 0:03:39.720 --> 0:03:42.880 to know how they're going to enforce this very limited 0:03:43.040 --> 0:03:47.840 but still important ceasefire. Don't forget Russia has destroyed seventy 0:03:47.880 --> 0:03:52.200 percent of Ukraine's electricity production during this war. How are 0:03:52.200 --> 0:03:54.560 they going to monitor this and then what comes after it? 0:03:55.120 --> 0:03:57.000 But Angela doesn't seem like to you that it is 0:03:57.040 --> 0:03:59.200 indeed the beginning of the end of this war. 0:04:00.200 --> 0:04:04.280 Maybe I think what it's certainly the beginning of the 0:04:04.400 --> 0:04:08.480 US and Russia established, re establishing relations, and we've heard 0:04:08.520 --> 0:04:12.240 that from President Trump. Is it the beginning of the 0:04:12.360 --> 0:04:15.200 end of this war? I'm still I think the jury's 0:04:15.240 --> 0:04:17.279 out on that. I think we have to see how 0:04:17.320 --> 0:04:21.800 long Houghton drags out the negotiations before he agrees to 0:04:22.200 --> 0:04:26.719 a total cease fire. And again, he hasn't really shown 0:04:26.839 --> 0:04:30.039 that he's interested in ending this war anytime soon. He's 0:04:30.120 --> 0:04:33.720 much more interested in restoring these relations with the US 0:04:34.040 --> 0:04:35.320 and ending his isolation. 0:04:35.760 --> 0:04:36.560 That's interesting. 0:04:36.960 --> 0:04:39.480 The other thing, I wonder Angelain something that we've talked 0:04:39.480 --> 0:04:42.200 about with you before. I mean, are there ever really 0:04:42.240 --> 0:04:45.880 any guarantees that President Pulton won't try to invade Ukraine 0:04:45.920 --> 0:04:48.279 or another country again? And how does the outcome of 0:04:48.400 --> 0:04:51.960 this negotiate negotiation for an end to the war kind 0:04:51.960 --> 0:04:54.440 of determine the likelihood of that happening again. 0:04:55.000 --> 0:04:59.520 So, as President Zelenski, unfortunately for him, pointed out in 0:04:59.560 --> 0:05:02.600 the overval Office when he then got the president, the 0:05:02.680 --> 0:05:05.960 vice president very angry with him, Russia has violated every 0:05:06.000 --> 0:05:09.919 cease fire it's signed with Ukraine, certainly since the annexation 0:05:10.000 --> 0:05:13.440 of Primeiere in twenty fourteen. And Russia has also violated 0:05:13.560 --> 0:05:18.000 every treaty it's signed with Ukraine since its independence. So 0:05:18.480 --> 0:05:21.040 I think one has to be very skeptical. And this 0:05:21.080 --> 0:05:25.120 is of course why President Zelenski, again unfortunately for him, 0:05:25.400 --> 0:05:29.840 in the Oval Office, wanted to talk about security guarantees, 0:05:30.080 --> 0:05:35.240 because without very robust security guarantees, there's absolutely no reason 0:05:35.360 --> 0:05:39.680 to believe that Russia wouldn't try and invade Ukraine again. 0:05:40.640 --> 0:05:44.400 The best security guarantee we know would be Ukraine joining NATO. 0:05:44.760 --> 0:05:48.320 That's been taken off the cards now by the Trump administration, 0:05:49.240 --> 0:05:53.760 but it needs these guarantees. And the Europeans, the French, 0:05:54.040 --> 0:05:57.040 the British, and other European countries have said they're willing 0:05:57.120 --> 0:06:02.120 to provide security guarantees, boots on the ground to be 0:06:02.200 --> 0:06:06.320 a stabilizing force, stabilization force once the war ends, but 0:06:06.360 --> 0:06:10.360 they say they need American backup for this, and that's 0:06:10.360 --> 0:06:13.640 something which the Trump administration has not committed itself to. 0:06:14.520 --> 0:06:14.919 Angela. 0:06:15.000 --> 0:06:16.720 Let's say this is the beginning of the end of 0:06:16.760 --> 0:06:21.719 the war and it does end, what does Russia look 0:06:21.839 --> 0:06:25.279 like on the other side of this. Is it stronger 0:06:25.480 --> 0:06:27.120 or weaker than it was? 0:06:27.200 --> 0:06:27.640 Is it more? 0:06:27.800 --> 0:06:31.440 Is Putin more emboldened than he was pre invasion? 0:06:32.240 --> 0:06:34.039 Yeah, so what it looks like is, I mean, the 0:06:34.120 --> 0:06:36.320 economy is not in good shape and it's going to 0:06:36.400 --> 0:06:39.599 get worse the longer this war goes on for Putin. 0:06:39.920 --> 0:06:43.120 So if the war ends, that would and obviously if 0:06:43.120 --> 0:06:46.120 the sanctions are removed, which they would be if the 0:06:46.160 --> 0:06:49.360 war ends at some point, then that would be very 0:06:49.400 --> 0:06:52.039 beneficial for Putin. But yes, he comes out of this 0:06:52.120 --> 0:06:59.480 looking stronger. He invaded another country and provoked and presumably, 0:06:59.640 --> 0:07:01.600 I mean, we have to see if Ukraine has to 0:07:01.640 --> 0:07:05.080 make territorial concessions to Russia. He will then, you know, 0:07:05.400 --> 0:07:09.880 have taken twenty percent of Ukraine. And unless there are 0:07:09.960 --> 0:07:15.040 these very robust security guarantees, he could invade again. And 0:07:15.080 --> 0:07:17.880 now he'll be in you know, he'll be invited back 0:07:17.880 --> 0:07:20.920 to the United States. Maybe the Europeans won't want to 0:07:20.920 --> 0:07:25.120 deal with him for any time soon. But Russia's actually 0:07:25.640 --> 0:07:29.400 strengthened its international position in many ways while it's been 0:07:29.440 --> 0:07:30.280 fighting this war. 0:07:30.480 --> 0:07:36.280 But is there some credibility Angela in President Trump trying 0:07:36.320 --> 0:07:40.400 to create some kind of economic cooperation or more economic 0:07:40.400 --> 0:07:43.280 cooperation between the US and Russia to create a different 0:07:43.360 --> 0:07:48.080 future and relationship with Russia going forwoting and is there 0:07:48.080 --> 0:07:48.800 some good to that. 0:07:49.560 --> 0:07:52.080 Well, in the nineteen nineties, there were a lot of 0:07:52.280 --> 0:07:55.440 American firms that were very active in Russia, energy companies, 0:07:56.120 --> 0:07:59.520 large firms, small firms. They were making money and they 0:07:59.520 --> 0:08:03.800 were doing quite well. And yet the political relationship between 0:08:04.000 --> 0:08:07.080 the US and Russia was very difficult. There were a 0:08:07.080 --> 0:08:09.520 couple of high points after nine to eleven when the 0:08:09.600 --> 0:08:13.080 US and Russia with Putin, you know, worked together in 0:08:13.200 --> 0:08:17.960 terms of the beginning of the US campaign in Afghanistan. Also, 0:08:18.000 --> 0:08:21.000 I should point out that there were thousands of American 0:08:21.080 --> 0:08:25.240 business people in Ukraine when Russia invaded. That didn't stop 0:08:25.320 --> 0:08:29.520 Russia from invading. So of course there are arguments to 0:08:29.560 --> 0:08:33.520 build up economic ties with Russia. But I think history 0:08:33.600 --> 0:08:36.480 shows us and even the experience of the last thirty years. 0:08:36.720 --> 0:08:40.320 Putin always likes to separate economics from politics, and you 0:08:40.400 --> 0:08:43.680 can have a good or a strong economic relationship with 0:08:43.760 --> 0:08:46.480 Russia and it doesn't seem to have that much impact 0:08:46.720 --> 0:08:51.200 on what Russia does politically or militarily, particularly under Putin. 0:08:51.559 --> 0:08:53.760 You know, I asked what Russia would look like after this, 0:08:53.960 --> 0:08:56.680 but what about Ukraine? Because this is the country that 0:08:57.080 --> 0:08:59.600 three years ago we were talking to you and so 0:08:59.640 --> 0:09:02.520 many other people thought this war would be over just 0:09:02.559 --> 0:09:04.800 in a matter of hours, a matter of days, a 0:09:04.800 --> 0:09:07.480 matter of weeks. But look what Ukraine has been able 0:09:07.480 --> 0:09:09.680 to do to defend itself. What does Ukraine look like 0:09:09.800 --> 0:09:11.600 on the other side, You know, on. 0:09:11.520 --> 0:09:15.240 The good side, Ukraine now has the strongest and largest 0:09:15.360 --> 0:09:22.839 army in Europe. It's developed very sophisticated technical technological capabilities. 0:09:23.320 --> 0:09:27.560 It's been using electronic warfare. It's much more sophisticated than that. 0:09:27.880 --> 0:09:30.960 On the other hand, of course, its economy has suffered greatly, 0:09:33.000 --> 0:09:37.040 and you know, it's had cities and villages obliterated by 0:09:37.040 --> 0:09:40.079 the Russians, so it's going to need an enormous amount 0:09:40.400 --> 0:09:44.360 of economic assistance and investment if it is to recover. 0:09:45.000 --> 0:09:48.440 It's also lost a large number of soldiers. We don't 0:09:48.720 --> 0:09:51.480 quite know, but I think for both Ukraine and Russia 0:09:51.520 --> 0:09:55.679 it's in the hundreds of thousands. And it also has 0:09:56.600 --> 0:09:59.880 millions of Ukrainians are now living abroad because of the war. 0:10:00.240 --> 0:10:02.040 They need to come back and they need to help 0:10:02.080 --> 0:10:07.080 rebuild the country. So economically it's it's you know, in 0:10:07.280 --> 0:10:11.320 very poor shape, even though other aspects militarily it's better off, 0:10:11.360 --> 0:10:13.840 but it will still be in a very fragile state 0:10:14.280 --> 0:10:15.240 at the end of the war. 0:10:15.679 --> 0:10:17.839 Angela, you know, I was thinking about this a lot, 0:10:17.880 --> 0:10:21.720 like what is the relationship between President Putin and President Trump? 0:10:21.760 --> 0:10:23.800 And I know what we've talked with you about this before, 0:10:23.840 --> 0:10:26.640 And is Russia a great power? Is it a great economy? 0:10:26.640 --> 0:10:30.280 You already referenced that it wasn't. They're businesses, their alliances, 0:10:30.400 --> 0:10:31.239 their leadership. 0:10:31.360 --> 0:10:32.520 I mean, is. 0:10:32.480 --> 0:10:35.719 It an economic and political model to emulate? 0:10:36.280 --> 0:10:39.520 Well, it's not an economic model to emulate because it's 0:10:39.600 --> 0:10:44.679 essentially a hydrocarbon exporter. It doesn't have a very modern economy. 0:10:45.120 --> 0:10:47.520 You know, I always when I teach my students, I say, 0:10:47.760 --> 0:10:49.640 tell me how many products in your home are from 0:10:49.760 --> 0:10:52.720 China and how many from Russia. Well, you know the 0:10:52.760 --> 0:10:55.280 answers to that there many of them from China, then 0:10:55.320 --> 0:10:59.080 on from Russia. So it earns a lot of money 0:10:59.120 --> 0:11:02.000 by selling hydro carbons, but it doesn't have really a 0:11:02.040 --> 0:11:05.520 modern economy. It has a shrinking population. It has a 0:11:05.600 --> 0:11:09.800 major demographic problem, and it's had that ever since the 0:11:09.880 --> 0:11:12.560 fall of the Soviet Union and even before then. But 0:11:12.840 --> 0:11:17.640 militarily it is a superpower, and that's in history. Russia 0:11:17.679 --> 0:11:20.360 has always been a great power because of its military, 0:11:20.640 --> 0:11:24.320 not because of its economy. And so it is you know, 0:11:24.480 --> 0:11:27.280 I think the largest nuclear power, the US and Russia, 0:11:27.360 --> 0:11:30.520 the two nuclear superpowers. The Russians have more warheads than 0:11:30.559 --> 0:11:33.240 we do, and so in that sense, it's a great power. 0:11:33.480 --> 0:11:37.480 And because of the hydrocarbons, and of course its location. 0:11:37.640 --> 0:11:41.400 It's the largest country in the world sitting astride Europe 0:11:41.400 --> 0:11:47.640 and Asia, so it has many strong endowments. But it economically, 0:11:47.720 --> 0:11:49.480 it really does need to modernize. 0:11:50.000 --> 0:11:52.720 Hey, just thirty seconds left, doctor sten. It does raise 0:11:52.760 --> 0:11:55.960 the question, though, how the rest of the world keeps 0:11:56.000 --> 0:12:00.200 putin in check, given the strength of its military and 0:12:00.400 --> 0:12:02.200 given his ambitions, how does that happen? 0:12:02.840 --> 0:12:04.160 Well, we know that he. 0:12:04.200 --> 0:12:06.880 Has ambitions that go beyond Ukraine, and that's why the 0:12:06.920 --> 0:12:10.560 Europeans are very worried about it. And now you see 0:12:10.760 --> 0:12:14.760 France offering you a nuclear umbrella to the rest of Europe. 0:12:14.800 --> 0:12:18.199 You see some European countries, even Poland, talking about should 0:12:18.240 --> 0:12:21.200 they acquire nuclear weapons. So this is one of the 0:12:21.240 --> 0:12:25.520 impacts of this brutal war is at least country countries 0:12:25.559 --> 0:12:29.360 in Europe reminding themselves that they're still vulnerable to a 0:12:29.400 --> 0:12:32.160 potential Russian invasion, and some of them are talking about 0:12:32.320 --> 0:12:34.840 the possibility of a war with Russia within the next 0:12:34.880 --> 0:12:35.560 five years. 0:12:35.840 --> 0:12:38.800 Bottom line ten seconds. This is a good this is 0:12:38.840 --> 0:12:43.000 a good move. This is some progress on the call. 0:12:43.280 --> 0:12:46.000 Yes it is, I mean hopefully if they implement this 0:12:46.400 --> 0:12:48.280 for a cease file, of course it's a good move. 0:12:48.480 --> 0:12:50.120 All right. My guess is we're going to be coming 0:12:50.160 --> 0:12:52.520 back to you a lot more still on this and 0:12:52.520 --> 0:12:55.600 we so appreciate that we can. Angela, thank you so much, 0:12:55.640 --> 0:12:58.160 doctor Angela stant Senior, fellow at the Brookings Institution, a 0:12:58.200 --> 0:13:00.839 member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and her book 0:13:00.920 --> 0:13:03.280 author of Putin's World. 0:13:03.320 --> 0:13:04.319 Be sure to check it out. 0:13:04.720 --> 0:13:08.280 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us 0:13:08.320 --> 0:13:11.800 live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern Listen 0:13:11.800 --> 0:13:15.360 on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, 0:13:15.520 --> 0:13:17.720 or watch us Live on YouTube. 0:13:18.880 --> 0:13:21.280 A new book out notes when the hammer and sickle 0:13:21.360 --> 0:13:24.680 came down in late nineteen ninety one, Russia's new market 0:13:24.760 --> 0:13:28.360 opened for business. From banking to brewery, sectors emerged out 0:13:28.400 --> 0:13:31.000 of nowhere, and for the next three decades this proto 0:13:31.120 --> 0:13:35.520 capitalism transformed Russian society. But as this book also notes 0:13:35.600 --> 0:13:39.040 in its own words, everything changed once Russia launched the 0:13:39.080 --> 0:13:41.840 full scale invasion of Ukraine in twenty twenty two. 0:13:42.480 --> 0:13:46.160 Someone with distinct knowledge in the dynamics between Russia and 0:13:46.240 --> 0:13:49.319 the companies that do business there is Charles Hecker. Charles 0:13:49.440 --> 0:13:52.280 is a journalist and risk management consultant. He's also the 0:13:52.360 --> 0:13:54.920 author of the new book Zero Sum, The Arc of 0:13:54.960 --> 0:13:58.360 International Business in Russia. Charles has spent forty years working 0:13:58.400 --> 0:14:01.040 in the Soviet Union and in RUSSA I think. 0:14:00.960 --> 0:14:03.120 Right now somewhere we're between sort of two steps forward, 0:14:03.120 --> 0:14:05.480 one step back, or maybe even one step forward two 0:14:05.520 --> 0:14:08.040 steps back, I mean from President Trump from President Zelenski. 0:14:08.080 --> 0:14:10.960 We can at least draw the conclusion that the two 0:14:11.000 --> 0:14:14.680 presidents are once again sort of speaking regularly, speaking normally, 0:14:15.040 --> 0:14:17.520 and without the anger and the hostility that we saw 0:14:17.800 --> 0:14:20.080 of a couple of weeks ago that really set this 0:14:20.200 --> 0:14:23.680 process back dramatically. So we have a bit of a 0:14:23.760 --> 0:14:27.640 victory there in that the two presidents are communicating. As 0:14:27.640 --> 0:14:30.920 far as the actual peace agreement or the cease fire 0:14:31.400 --> 0:14:34.920 between Russia and Ukraine, both sides are already accusing each 0:14:34.920 --> 0:14:37.840 other of violating that. So there were attacks allegedly from 0:14:37.920 --> 0:14:41.120 Russia on Ukrainian energy installations, and Russia says that Ukraine 0:14:41.120 --> 0:14:42.480 is doing the exact same thing back. 0:14:43.200 --> 0:14:46.720 So when Steve Woodkoff says he believes that I think 0:14:46.720 --> 0:14:48.440 he said to some extent, well, some of these attacks 0:14:48.480 --> 0:14:50.600 were already happening, or I don't know. I guess the 0:14:50.640 --> 0:14:52.920 devil and timing is always in the detail, or the 0:14:52.960 --> 0:14:57.520 devil's in the details. He believes that President Putin is 0:14:57.560 --> 0:15:02.280 acting in good faith. Your knowledge of President Putin and 0:15:02.840 --> 0:15:06.480 how he does things, do you think he is. 0:15:06.840 --> 0:15:07.080 Well. 0:15:07.120 --> 0:15:09.840 One of President Trump's predecessors in the White House when 0:15:09.880 --> 0:15:13.960 talking about Russia, always said trust, but verify, And you know, 0:15:14.040 --> 0:15:16.560 there hasn't been a whole lot of verification going on lately. 0:15:16.920 --> 0:15:19.040 And what we do know is that President Putin has 0:15:19.080 --> 0:15:21.640 in the past gone back on his word when it 0:15:21.680 --> 0:15:25.640 comes to holding off on attacking Ukraine. And so with 0:15:25.680 --> 0:15:28.000 the fact that the timing, as you suggest, is still 0:15:28.040 --> 0:15:30.600 incredibly vague on when this is all going to start 0:15:30.840 --> 0:15:33.880 and when the ceasefire will kick off, we still don't 0:15:33.920 --> 0:15:37.960 know first of all, what Putin's word is and when 0:15:38.040 --> 0:15:39.320 or if he'll start to obey it. 0:15:39.920 --> 0:15:42.680 So I just want to get your thoughts about where 0:15:42.680 --> 0:15:45.920 we are in your view, if this actually is the 0:15:45.920 --> 0:15:48.240 beginning of the end of the war. You mentioned that 0:15:48.320 --> 0:15:51.600 both sides are already not agreeing to what had been 0:15:51.800 --> 0:15:55.080 agreed upon, but you also said that it's good news 0:15:55.120 --> 0:15:58.520 that the US is speaking to both of these parties. 0:15:58.640 --> 0:16:00.360 Do you actually think this is the beginning the end 0:16:00.360 --> 0:16:00.680 of the war. 0:16:01.760 --> 0:16:02.400 It might be. 0:16:02.560 --> 0:16:03.920 I mean, I think if this is the beginning of 0:16:03.960 --> 0:16:05.360 the end of the war, it's going to take a 0:16:05.400 --> 0:16:08.360 lot longer than any of us anticipate. And a lot 0:16:08.440 --> 0:16:12.200 longer than any of the actors in these negotiations are 0:16:12.280 --> 0:16:14.520 telling us. I mean, we know, look that the strategic 0:16:14.720 --> 0:16:18.560 driver for Putin behind all of this is to keep fighting. 0:16:18.760 --> 0:16:22.280 So when he says that he's engaged in ceasefire negotiations, 0:16:22.280 --> 0:16:25.400 when he says this he's interested in a ceasefire, he's 0:16:25.440 --> 0:16:29.000 really not being entirely genuine with his counterparties, because really 0:16:29.040 --> 0:16:31.400 what Putin wants to do is to continue to press on. 0:16:31.720 --> 0:16:34.200 He thinks he's winning on the ground in Ukraine. His 0:16:34.320 --> 0:16:37.520 progress has been a little bit better than previously, and 0:16:37.640 --> 0:16:39.760 right now there's very little incentive for him to stop. 0:16:40.680 --> 0:16:42.840 So that's the perfect place to sort of transition to 0:16:42.920 --> 0:16:47.520 business in Russia over the last few decades, something that 0:16:47.800 --> 0:16:50.640 you've been writing about and that you know a lot about. 0:16:50.880 --> 0:16:53.040 If we were talking to you three years ago, we'd 0:16:53.040 --> 0:16:55.000 be talking to you about all the American businesses that 0:16:55.240 --> 0:16:58.120 have announced that they've stopped doing business in Russia as 0:16:58.120 --> 0:17:01.000 a result of Russia's invasion of you. I think a 0:17:01.000 --> 0:17:03.360 lot of people then would have thought this is going 0:17:03.400 --> 0:17:06.960 to have huge economic consequences and effects on the country 0:17:07.000 --> 0:17:10.600 and might cause Russia to think twice about what it's 0:17:10.600 --> 0:17:14.160 doing militarily that obviously didn't happen, right. 0:17:14.280 --> 0:17:15.000 Well, exactly right. 0:17:15.040 --> 0:17:17.360 I mean, if we were talking about this precisely three 0:17:17.440 --> 0:17:20.919 years ago, what we would be talking about is absolute 0:17:21.000 --> 0:17:26.480 sort of streams of Western executives stampeding towards Moscow's airports, 0:17:26.480 --> 0:17:29.680 among other places, trying to get out of the country. 0:17:30.200 --> 0:17:33.600 And this was exactly three years ago, a time when 0:17:34.160 --> 0:17:39.280 international offices, European and American offices were physically emptying out 0:17:39.359 --> 0:17:42.600 of expats and of Russian employees who were desperate to 0:17:42.680 --> 0:17:45.800 leave the country because the full scale engage invasion was 0:17:45.880 --> 0:17:48.879 kicking off. And so if we look at it now, 0:17:49.400 --> 0:17:54.000 you know, the US business community is looking at the 0:17:54.040 --> 0:17:59.240 negotiations between Trump and Putin and they sense that sanctions 0:17:59.359 --> 0:18:04.160 relief is in the air. And there are active conversations 0:18:04.240 --> 0:18:07.600 now in the companies that left Russia three years ago 0:18:07.920 --> 0:18:11.399 about going back. Not everyone will do it, but everyone 0:18:11.480 --> 0:18:12.360 is talking about it. 0:18:12.520 --> 0:18:14.680 Yet you know, you're right, or you note that in 0:18:14.720 --> 0:18:17.840 like one generation, we saw Russia open its doors and 0:18:17.880 --> 0:18:22.919 then close them again. So I mean what ultimately rules 0:18:22.960 --> 0:18:26.800 in Russia? Is it money, is it business? Is it politics? 0:18:27.160 --> 0:18:29.639 Well, you're right, I mean the last generation in Russia 0:18:29.760 --> 0:18:33.480 was one of the biggest experiments in global capitalism ever. 0:18:33.800 --> 0:18:37.120 You had this emerging market opening up during a time 0:18:37.160 --> 0:18:41.800 when companies were globalizing rapidly, and everyone rushed in to 0:18:41.960 --> 0:18:45.879 Russia following the collapse of the Soviet Union. You know, 0:18:45.960 --> 0:18:49.840 for companies to go back, it is partially all about money, 0:18:49.840 --> 0:18:52.280 but it's about that and a lot more. It's about 0:18:52.560 --> 0:18:56.960 a change to the risk reward equation. And in the 0:18:57.040 --> 0:19:00.600 nineteen nineties, just about anything that you'd did in Russia, 0:19:00.600 --> 0:19:04.960 almost any kind of Western business activity made money. It 0:19:05.000 --> 0:19:06.600 was really like, you know, plant any seed and. 0:19:06.520 --> 0:19:07.480 It would grow right. 0:19:08.040 --> 0:19:10.359 That is no longer the case. Companies that want to 0:19:10.400 --> 0:19:13.399 go back to Russia or are thinking about going back, 0:19:13.640 --> 0:19:15.760 are not going back to the Russia of the nineteen nineties, 0:19:16.040 --> 0:19:18.080 not going back to the real go go days of 0:19:18.080 --> 0:19:20.360 the two thousands. It's very different now. 0:19:20.480 --> 0:19:22.160 Well talk to us about this, and this is something 0:19:22.200 --> 0:19:25.920 Tim and I talked about with Angela Stent, who has 0:19:26.160 --> 0:19:29.119 understands Putin, understands Russia too, And I said, you know, 0:19:29.200 --> 0:19:31.920 what is today's Russia? What is Putin's Russia? Is it 0:19:31.960 --> 0:19:34.399 a great power? Is it a great economy? You know, 0:19:34.480 --> 0:19:36.639 what are their businesses, their alliances, like what do we 0:19:36.720 --> 0:19:38.680 need to know? And some of it I asked facetiously 0:19:39.200 --> 0:19:40.720 when I said, is it a great economy? 0:19:40.920 --> 0:19:42.600 But I mean, what is it today? 0:19:42.920 --> 0:19:44.399 Well, you know, there were a lot of people, not 0:19:44.480 --> 0:19:46.280 Angelus Stentt, who's one of my idols in the field 0:19:46.320 --> 0:19:48.880 of Soviet and Russian studies, from way back in the day. 0:19:49.240 --> 0:19:51.080 You know, there were people that said that Russia was 0:19:51.160 --> 0:19:53.760 a gas station with nukes, and you know, that is 0:19:53.800 --> 0:19:58.360 a vast underestimation of Russia's role in the global economy. 0:19:58.400 --> 0:20:02.040 And we understood that Russia and gas and oil and 0:20:02.119 --> 0:20:05.200 all of that came under sanctions, or oil came under sanctions, 0:20:05.200 --> 0:20:07.720 and when the Europeans tried to chase gas out of 0:20:07.760 --> 0:20:10.680 their pipelines, we understood what happened to prices. We also 0:20:10.760 --> 0:20:14.200 understood what happened on global grain markets after the start 0:20:14.400 --> 0:20:17.080 of the full scale invasion. So Russia is a lot 0:20:17.119 --> 0:20:21.359 more plugged into the global economy than we ever thought, 0:20:21.440 --> 0:20:24.359 and perhaps even more than we think, particularly an area 0:20:24.480 --> 0:20:28.280 of precious metals, rare earth metals, critical minerals. These are 0:20:28.280 --> 0:20:32.399 places where Russia has significant strategic deposits that are useful 0:20:32.440 --> 0:20:35.399 not just to Russia, but to everybody else around the world, 0:20:35.480 --> 0:20:38.199 So you know there is reason to go back in 0:20:38.240 --> 0:20:41.000 There are companies that are thinking about it. But but 0:20:41.119 --> 0:20:44.800 the war lasted a lot longer and is lasting a 0:20:44.800 --> 0:20:48.919 lot longer than anybody ever thought, and enormous changes have 0:20:48.960 --> 0:20:52.520 taken place on the ground politically and economically in Russia. 0:20:52.560 --> 0:20:54.800 And if you're thinking of going about going back, you 0:20:54.920 --> 0:20:56.800 have to be thinking, well, what kind of Russia is 0:20:56.840 --> 0:20:57.600 waiting for us? 0:20:57.960 --> 0:21:01.159 Well, what kind of what did Russia businesses, Charles do 0:21:01.920 --> 0:21:05.280 to replace American businesses and Western businesses that left. We 0:21:05.320 --> 0:21:08.919 all saw stories of McDonald's, for example, pulling out. That 0:21:08.960 --> 0:21:11.480 was such a prominent example because of what happened when 0:21:11.480 --> 0:21:13.680 the fall of the Soviet Union happened, and that first 0:21:13.720 --> 0:21:16.960 McDonald's opened up in Russia. But we saw this sort 0:21:17.000 --> 0:21:21.920 of Russian version of McDonald's come in. What has been 0:21:22.040 --> 0:21:24.080 what has happened on the ground since American and Western 0:21:24.119 --> 0:21:24.920 businesses have left. 0:21:25.000 --> 0:21:26.960 Yeah, a lot of different things have happened since since 0:21:27.040 --> 0:21:30.320 Western and American companies left, and that is that you're 0:21:30.320 --> 0:21:33.680 absolutely right to point out that a number of significant 0:21:34.040 --> 0:21:37.280 Western brands, including McDonald's, which everybody loves to look at 0:21:37.400 --> 0:21:40.640 when we're talking about Russia. But other companies like Starbucks, 0:21:40.640 --> 0:21:43.560 for example, had a massive presence in Russia and they're 0:21:43.600 --> 0:21:47.879 gone too. They've been taken over by local Russian owners. 0:21:47.920 --> 0:21:51.160 They were sold when those two companies decided that they 0:21:51.200 --> 0:21:54.399 wanted out. And so what those companies have been doing 0:21:54.680 --> 0:21:59.119 has been winning, growing and maintaining market share and trying 0:21:59.160 --> 0:22:02.160 to sort of run businesses. And right now it's very 0:22:02.200 --> 0:22:06.359 difficult to understand whether the current owners of McDonald's or 0:22:06.400 --> 0:22:09.160 Starbucks or any of the other companies that left, you know, 0:22:09.200 --> 0:22:12.080 how keen they are to sell those back to the 0:22:12.080 --> 0:22:14.200 people that they bought them for just a couple of 0:22:14.280 --> 0:22:16.679 years ago. The other thing that's happened on the market 0:22:16.800 --> 0:22:21.280 is that companies from non sanctioning countries have moved in, 0:22:21.280 --> 0:22:24.760 and that includes countries like Turkey and China. They've taken 0:22:24.800 --> 0:22:28.080 over market share, they've moved in, and it's going to 0:22:28.080 --> 0:22:31.480 be difficult for returning companies to dislodge them. 0:22:31.600 --> 0:22:35.639 So it raises the question about initially why the companies 0:22:35.960 --> 0:22:39.160 left during the invasion. In your view, was it because 0:22:39.600 --> 0:22:43.520 it was seen as not ethical to do business and 0:22:43.560 --> 0:22:46.359 support a country that had this invasion? Was it because 0:22:46.400 --> 0:22:51.840 of American regulations or was it an actual business decision. 0:22:52.119 --> 0:22:55.120 There were a few different decisions. In some cases, sanctions 0:22:55.119 --> 0:22:57.639 made it illegal to do business in Russia, and there 0:22:57.640 --> 0:23:00.840 were companies that just had to get out because there 0:23:00.880 --> 0:23:03.720 was no way that they could transact in Russia at 0:23:03.720 --> 0:23:07.680 all without violating sanctions. Other companies looked at the reputational 0:23:07.760 --> 0:23:11.080 risk of doing business in Russia, and you had significant 0:23:11.160 --> 0:23:14.400 external pressure on these companies saying, why are you still 0:23:14.440 --> 0:23:17.280 in Russia. You're paying taxes to the Russian government. The 0:23:17.359 --> 0:23:19.879 Russian government is using that money to buy weapons to 0:23:19.960 --> 0:23:23.240 kill Ukrainians, So what are you doing there? Companies felt 0:23:23.240 --> 0:23:25.840 that reputational pressure and they left. 0:23:26.440 --> 0:23:27.760 And then there were companies that. 0:23:27.960 --> 0:23:30.560 For whom it was easier to leave because maybe Russia 0:23:30.600 --> 0:23:33.320 wasn't that big a market, maybe they weren't doing all 0:23:33.359 --> 0:23:36.320 that well there anyway, and why bother with all of 0:23:36.359 --> 0:23:38.600 the difficulty of doing business in this kind of environment, 0:23:38.760 --> 0:23:40.399 and so they also packed up and left. 0:23:40.880 --> 0:23:46.080 You know, I think we think that introduce capitalism, introduce 0:23:46.320 --> 0:23:51.120 Western businesses, whether it's China, whether it's Russia, that these countries, 0:23:51.160 --> 0:23:54.920 these places will become liberal democracies. And here we are 0:23:54.960 --> 0:23:58.479 again seeing that it really doesn't work. So is it 0:23:58.560 --> 0:24:00.960 not going to work? If we can continue to get 0:24:01.119 --> 0:24:04.679 what's what's wrong with our thinking or why is it 0:24:04.720 --> 0:24:05.360 not working. 0:24:05.960 --> 0:24:08.680 One of the lessons that we have to have learned 0:24:09.160 --> 0:24:13.119 on exiting Russia is that the assumption we made, just 0:24:13.160 --> 0:24:15.159 as you said, Carol, the assumption that we made on 0:24:15.200 --> 0:24:19.560 the way in that engaging with Russia economically and commercially 0:24:19.960 --> 0:24:24.000 and sending Big Max to Russia would transform the country 0:24:24.080 --> 0:24:27.160 somehow into a mirror image of the West, or into 0:24:27.320 --> 0:24:30.720 at least a sort of liberal democracy that we could 0:24:30.720 --> 0:24:33.560 get along with. And you know, I think we've learned 0:24:33.600 --> 0:24:35.800 over the years, whether we're talking about Russia or we're 0:24:35.800 --> 0:24:39.399 talking about China for example, or other countries, that you know, 0:24:39.440 --> 0:24:42.240 eating Big Max doesn't make you a democrat, you know, 0:24:42.320 --> 0:24:46.960 little d democrat. And so you know, if companies once 0:24:47.000 --> 0:24:49.919 again go back to Russia and think, look, you know, 0:24:49.920 --> 0:24:51.280 we're going to be on the ground and we're going 0:24:51.359 --> 0:24:53.399 to give this a chance, and we think that Russia 0:24:53.520 --> 0:24:57.280 may reform, that's a mistaken assumption. And you know, we 0:24:57.400 --> 0:25:00.200 realize that perhaps a little bit too slowly. I don't 0:25:00.240 --> 0:25:02.359 want to be too judgmental about our experience in Russia 0:25:02.359 --> 0:25:05.640 over the past generation, but it was a flawed assumption. 0:25:06.200 --> 0:25:09.200 So President Trump seems to want to create economic ties 0:25:09.240 --> 0:25:12.199 between the US and Russia. Some say, you know, the 0:25:12.520 --> 0:25:14.879 diplomacy or lack thereof, or whatever you want to call 0:25:14.920 --> 0:25:17.680 it that we've had between the US and Russia and 0:25:18.280 --> 0:25:22.360 President Putin so far has not created a better relationship. 0:25:22.840 --> 0:25:25.080 So maybe this. 0:25:25.000 --> 0:25:29.959 Could Is that even possible with your knowledge of President Putin, 0:25:30.200 --> 0:25:33.680 how he runs the country, his type of leadership, I mean, 0:25:34.040 --> 0:25:35.760 is there some good that could come out of this? 0:25:36.400 --> 0:25:40.119 I think President Putin is going to remain resolutely hostile 0:25:40.160 --> 0:25:41.639 to the West going through. 0:25:41.520 --> 0:25:42.840 The United States included. 0:25:42.640 --> 0:25:47.760 Yes, absolutely, capitol W boldface letters. He is going to 0:25:47.800 --> 0:25:50.399 remain hostile to the West and the United States, and 0:25:50.440 --> 0:25:53.440 he will see them as enemy nations, and he will 0:25:53.440 --> 0:25:57.440 take a very skeptical view towards companies that come from 0:25:57.440 --> 0:25:58.200 those countries. 0:25:58.440 --> 0:25:59.000 And so he. 0:25:59.000 --> 0:26:03.280 Certainly doesn't believe eve that allowing Western companies into Russia 0:26:03.320 --> 0:26:08.600 or American companies into Russia is an overwhelming good for 0:26:08.720 --> 0:26:11.920 the Russian economy or certainly for the Russian political system. 0:26:12.200 --> 0:26:13.879 And that's something that companies are going to have to 0:26:13.960 --> 0:26:18.840 manage and overcome and be extremely acutely aware of if 0:26:18.960 --> 0:26:21.720 or when they go back in to mine. 0:26:21.800 --> 0:26:23.240 You get a quick one last question. 0:26:23.680 --> 0:26:28.480 Y, Yeah, Charles, would you recommend that companies just don't 0:26:28.480 --> 0:26:29.680 go back to Russia. 0:26:32.000 --> 0:26:33.520 Companies are going to make up their minds about this 0:26:33.560 --> 0:26:35.800 based on how they view their risk reward decision. And look, 0:26:35.840 --> 0:26:39.840 there are companies out there in for example, the energy sector, 0:26:39.880 --> 0:26:43.159 in natural resources, in metals and minerals and mining that 0:26:43.359 --> 0:26:48.639 have really robust appetites for risk and cast iron stomachs 0:26:48.640 --> 0:26:52.640 for managing it. They will probably go back, and they're 0:26:52.680 --> 0:26:54.920 going to do it carefully. They've done this before. They're 0:26:54.920 --> 0:26:57.680 doing business in places like ire Rock right now. So 0:26:57.960 --> 0:27:00.960 they'll go back to Russia and we'll see how they listen. 0:27:01.119 --> 0:27:01.679 So love this. 0:27:01.760 --> 0:27:03.280 Hope you can get you back real soon because we 0:27:03.280 --> 0:27:05.120 know that this is going to be certainly an ongoing 0:27:05.240 --> 0:27:06.560 and kind of story. 0:27:06.280 --> 0:27:09.439 That will probably go on for a while. Charles, thank 0:27:09.480 --> 0:27:10.480 you so much. Collect with the book. 0:27:10.480 --> 0:27:11.000 It's a pleasure. 0:27:11.040 --> 0:27:11.320 Thank you. 0:27:11.520 --> 0:27:14.680 Pleasure is ours as well. Charles Hecker, journalist, risk management consultant. 0:27:14.720 --> 0:27:17.000 Book just out It is called Zero Sum The Arch 0:27:17.000 --> 0:27:23.880 of International Business in Russia. 0:27:24.040 --> 0:27:27.800 This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Listen live each 0:27:27.840 --> 0:27:30.840 weekday starting at two pm Eastern on Apple car Play 0:27:30.920 --> 0:27:33.560 and the Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You 0:27:33.600 --> 0:27:36.800 can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 0:27:36.840 --> 0:27:40.960 New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:27:42.040 --> 0:27:44.480 And Splashdown Crew nine Back on Earth. 0:27:47.440 --> 0:27:50.920 Yes, indeed, everybody, Yes, those two NASA astronauts whose planned 0:27:50.920 --> 0:27:52.720 short trip to space became one that left them in 0:27:52.840 --> 0:27:55.360 orbit for nine months. Yes, you know, they are back 0:27:55.400 --> 0:27:59.440 on planet Earth. But Wilmore and Sonny Williams coming home 0:27:59.480 --> 0:28:01.480 to a the United States, though, that is a bit 0:28:01.480 --> 0:28:04.320 differently are different, I should say, It's got a new president, 0:28:04.400 --> 0:28:06.879 a new Republican controlled Congress, and a world that some 0:28:06.960 --> 0:28:11.320 would say is being turned upside down by new US policies. Now, 0:28:11.320 --> 0:28:14.480 those two NASA astronauts also returned to Earth in a 0:28:14.640 --> 0:28:17.919 SpaceX craft, which is, of course, you know, SpaceX a 0:28:18.000 --> 0:28:21.160 part of the Elon Musk Empire. So too is DOGE, 0:28:21.240 --> 0:28:23.480 the entity that is tasked with an ever widening mission 0:28:23.520 --> 0:28:26.680 to seemingly remake the US government, and that includes cuts 0:28:26.680 --> 0:28:29.600 and spending and in the federal workforce. So we thought 0:28:29.600 --> 0:28:31.680 it was time to do kind of a checkout all 0:28:31.680 --> 0:28:34.800 things Elon and Tesla and SpaceX and Doge and more 0:28:35.240 --> 0:28:37.080 to do that we have back with us Bloomberg Business 0:28:37.119 --> 0:28:39.760 Week columnist Max Chafkin. He is co host of the 0:28:39.800 --> 0:28:42.920 elon Ing podcast, author of The Contrarian Peter Thiel and 0:28:42.960 --> 0:28:45.920 Silicon Valley's Pursuit of Power. Max is here in our 0:28:45.920 --> 0:28:48.600 Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. Of course Tim out there in 0:28:48.640 --> 0:28:52.400 our San Francisco bureau. Max, good to have you here. 0:28:52.520 --> 0:28:55.760 We were talking going on, well, you know, we find 0:28:55.880 --> 0:28:57.760 we were thinking about Elon today and like he's in 0:28:57.760 --> 0:29:00.200 this kind of funny spot. He finally brings these two 0:29:00.280 --> 0:29:02.840 astronauts that I know NASA doesn't want us to use 0:29:02.840 --> 0:29:05.000 the word stranded, but we're stranded up in space. 0:29:05.360 --> 0:29:08.240 They were safe, but SpaceX brings him home. 0:29:08.320 --> 0:29:10.480 At the same time, you've got a judge, a federal 0:29:10.560 --> 0:29:15.480 judge ruling that must likely exercise unconstitutional power in the 0:29:15.480 --> 0:29:19.440 Trump administration's efforts to shutter the US agency that manages 0:29:19.480 --> 0:29:22.120 for an AID. I mean, there's so much going on, 0:29:22.720 --> 0:29:25.280 the highs and lows that seem to be Elon. How 0:29:25.280 --> 0:29:27.800 do you because you continually have to kind of put 0:29:27.840 --> 0:29:29.160 it all together, makes sense. 0:29:29.520 --> 0:29:30.640 How do you put it all together? 0:29:30.800 --> 0:29:35.400 Well, I think, of course, this SpaceX mission is a 0:29:36.040 --> 0:29:40.120 demonstration of all that that company has achieved. They are 0:29:40.240 --> 0:29:44.760 the main way that America gets its astronauts to and 0:29:44.800 --> 0:29:47.080 from and cargo to and from the International Space Station. 0:29:47.360 --> 0:29:51.880 There was this there is this competing effort that the 0:29:51.920 --> 0:29:55.840 Boeing craft that is going slower and Elon Musk, as 0:29:55.840 --> 0:29:59.160 you said, stepping in now. I think the problem here 0:29:59.240 --> 0:30:02.280 is Musk think in his mind and when you look 0:30:02.320 --> 0:30:04.320 at like some of the things he said about what 0:30:04.640 --> 0:30:07.320 he wants out of the Trump administration, he just sort 0:30:07.360 --> 0:30:11.000 of expects Trump to essentially give a bunch more contracts 0:30:11.240 --> 0:30:14.880 to SpaceX. I think in these court rulings and in 0:30:14.920 --> 0:30:18.080 some of the pushback, we're seeing political pushback as well 0:30:18.120 --> 0:30:20.640 as pushback from consumers, like some of this these d 0:30:21.280 --> 0:30:24.160 you know, vandalistic acts on Tesla stores and so on. 0:30:24.400 --> 0:30:26.800 We're seeing that that may prove to be more difficult 0:30:27.480 --> 0:30:30.640 than I think maybe the Elon Musk uh, you know, 0:30:30.840 --> 0:30:32.200 super fans would have believed. 0:30:32.640 --> 0:30:34.120 What do you mean by that, Max, How is that 0:30:34.160 --> 0:30:34.880 more difficult? 0:30:35.160 --> 0:30:37.600 Well, I think there's political Well sort of we're a 0:30:37.680 --> 0:30:40.680 couple of things. One is we're starting to see sustained 0:30:40.840 --> 0:30:44.280 political opposition, not just to Donald Trump, right, whose poll 0:30:44.360 --> 0:30:47.360 numbers have have dipped a little bit in most polls 0:30:47.400 --> 0:30:50.080 since he took office, but also, but even more so, 0:30:50.160 --> 0:30:53.040 to Elon Musk. Elon Musk's has gone from being a 0:30:53.160 --> 0:30:57.880 very popular, uh public figure to being an unpopular public figure, 0:30:57.920 --> 0:31:00.720 even even more unpopular than Donald Trump were like a 0:31:00.720 --> 0:31:04.240 typical Republican politician. And so so that is going to 0:31:04.240 --> 0:31:07.720 be a challenge. That's a challenge because you know, Democrats 0:31:07.760 --> 0:31:11.560 and Republicans are consumers, and if people are generally mad 0:31:11.600 --> 0:31:13.600 at Elon Musk, they may not buy Tesla's. We're seeing 0:31:13.600 --> 0:31:15.680 that show up in some of the Tesla's sales data. 0:31:15.760 --> 0:31:18.880 I think it's also a challenge if we're talking about 0:31:18.880 --> 0:31:22.840 some sort of effort to hand SpaceX another contract. Now, 0:31:22.840 --> 0:31:26.840 of course NASA did use SpaceX to bring these astronauts back, 0:31:27.000 --> 0:31:29.040 but as he said, Carol, they didn't really have an option. 0:31:29.480 --> 0:31:31.960 And and what Elon Musk is going to be talking 0:31:32.000 --> 0:31:34.640 about and is talking about to some extent, are are 0:31:35.120 --> 0:31:39.320 contracts where there are other options. So this rural broadband program, 0:31:39.400 --> 0:31:42.160 where Musk and his supporters would very much like the 0:31:42.200 --> 0:31:46.320 emphasis to go away from fiber optic to satellite. That 0:31:46.440 --> 0:31:49.080 is going to have political opposition. We're seeing opposition in 0:31:49.160 --> 0:31:52.160 Italy where Georgia Maloney, who's of course a Musk ally 0:31:53.160 --> 0:31:57.920 there's been talk of giving SpaceX a starlink, the satellite 0:31:57.920 --> 0:32:01.640 division of SpaceX a big contract opposition there, and then 0:32:01.680 --> 0:32:04.320 I think you're even starting to see little hints of 0:32:04.360 --> 0:32:08.440 opposition to know what you might see as a more 0:32:08.440 --> 0:32:11.720 transactional thing in the US, where if Elon Musk were 0:32:11.760 --> 0:32:13.040 to get what he wants, he would get like a 0:32:13.120 --> 0:32:15.400 giant Mars contract. Now, I think that is going to 0:32:15.400 --> 0:32:17.160 be as I said, it's going to be difficult. They're 0:32:17.160 --> 0:32:20.440 going to be senators, congressmen who are who are in 0:32:20.480 --> 0:32:24.000 the States where these other legacy aerospace contractors are, who 0:32:24.000 --> 0:32:25.000 are not going to be happy about that. 0:32:25.640 --> 0:32:28.440 There's also business challenges too, Max, and I'm curious about 0:32:28.440 --> 0:32:30.760 your thoughts on this. We got news this week that 0:32:31.160 --> 0:32:33.720 Shalmi is actually raising its target for a number of 0:32:33.760 --> 0:32:37.200 vehicles that it plans to deliver this year. Byd comes 0:32:37.240 --> 0:32:40.880 out with this five minute charging essentially equivalent of going 0:32:40.880 --> 0:32:44.360 into a gas station filling up your gas tank. Tesla 0:32:44.400 --> 0:32:47.680 doesn't have that technology. In the US, you can't get 0:32:47.720 --> 0:32:50.200 these Chinese autos, but around the world you certainly can. 0:32:50.600 --> 0:32:51.560 It seems like there are some. 0:32:51.480 --> 0:32:54.360 Real business realities that the Tesla empire is running into. 0:32:54.600 --> 0:32:57.600 Yes, I mean we would be talking about these challenges 0:32:57.680 --> 0:33:00.680 even if the politics were working perfectly for Elon Musk 0:33:00.880 --> 0:33:05.800 you talked about China. We've seen Chinese automakers make huge strides. 0:33:05.840 --> 0:33:09.520 And you're right, Tesla is protected to some extent because 0:33:09.800 --> 0:33:12.120 these Chinese companies are not in the US, But Tesla 0:33:12.120 --> 0:33:14.960 gets about forty percent of its sales from China, so 0:33:15.360 --> 0:33:17.880 this is like a direct threat to its business. Also, 0:33:18.120 --> 0:33:21.320 these companies are operating in other regions where Tesla, you know, 0:33:21.400 --> 0:33:25.040 collects a percentage of its sales, so even today this 0:33:25.120 --> 0:33:27.600 is a problem. And then the other thing you're seeing 0:33:27.720 --> 0:33:31.800 is a lot of these Chinese automakers are offering basically 0:33:31.880 --> 0:33:34.560 their own versions of what Tesla calls full self driving. 0:33:34.600 --> 0:33:37.880 This is an advanced driver assistance software suite, and they're 0:33:37.920 --> 0:33:42.200 effectively giving this software away. The Tesla bulls had been 0:33:42.200 --> 0:33:45.160 expecting that they would be able to charge huge sums 0:33:45.160 --> 0:33:47.840 of money for Tesla Full self driving. Right now coast 0:33:47.880 --> 0:33:50.560 about one hundred bucks a month now, and when Musk 0:33:50.600 --> 0:33:51.920 has talked about he said, it's going to get even 0:33:52.000 --> 0:33:54.720 more expensive because if you could, you know, take a 0:33:54.800 --> 0:33:56.520 nap in your car, that would be worth even more 0:33:57.080 --> 0:33:59.160 what we're now. I think there are reasons to be skeptical. 0:33:59.600 --> 0:34:01.840 I would, you know, if you're driving down the highway 0:34:01.920 --> 0:34:04.560 right now, wouldn't take any sleeping pills and trust the Tesla. 0:34:04.600 --> 0:34:08.359 But that said, even if that technology were to pan out, 0:34:08.360 --> 0:34:11.000 even if it were to do exactly what Elon Musk 0:34:11.000 --> 0:34:14.200 says it's going to do, there are potentially other companies 0:34:14.400 --> 0:34:17.040 doing the same thing for less money, and that's a challenge. 0:34:17.080 --> 0:34:20.240 I feel like the million, billion, trillion dollar question though, Max, 0:34:20.520 --> 0:34:24.800 is is there information that Elon Musk is getting working 0:34:24.840 --> 0:34:26.800 within the government that is going to give him this 0:34:26.920 --> 0:34:30.440 incredible advantage or access to data? I think about you know, 0:34:30.480 --> 0:34:33.319 the AI you know startup that he's involved in, and 0:34:33.640 --> 0:34:36.000 like all this stuff, is there stuff or do we 0:34:36.080 --> 0:34:38.880 not even know that he is getting access that even 0:34:39.280 --> 0:34:42.279 if he leaves tomorrow, that he has an advantage in 0:34:42.320 --> 0:34:43.320 some way, I mean. 0:34:43.239 --> 0:34:46.960 He has I think that in theory, yes, you know, 0:34:47.120 --> 0:34:49.840 AI systems rely on huge sums of data. If Elon 0:34:49.920 --> 0:34:53.200 Musk were able to like funnel a bunch of if 0:34:53.280 --> 0:34:57.200 data were to leak from the federal government into Grock, 0:34:57.360 --> 0:35:00.880 you know, Elon Musk's large language model that in theory 0:35:01.239 --> 0:35:04.840 helped Grock. But I think there are a number of reasons, 0:35:05.160 --> 0:35:07.399 not that I don't know that that's the most likely 0:35:07.440 --> 0:35:10.680 scenario or the most concerning scenario. There would be ethical issues, 0:35:10.760 --> 0:35:15.480 legal issues, uh, issues of personal privacy, and also I 0:35:16.040 --> 0:35:19.959 just think that the political advantages he has by being 0:35:19.960 --> 0:35:24.880 close to Trump probably vastly outweigh whatever. You know, you know, 0:35:24.960 --> 0:35:27.360 incremental data. There are a lot of data sets, a 0:35:27.400 --> 0:35:30.040 lot of financial data sets out there. I do think 0:35:30.400 --> 0:35:34.040 some of these agencies that are being you know, as 0:35:34.160 --> 0:35:36.640 you know the Trump administration and supporter see it reformed, 0:35:36.640 --> 0:35:40.319 as its critics would say, gutted, were agencies that were 0:35:40.320 --> 0:35:44.080 investigating Elon Musk. We're holding Elon Musk companies backs, you know, 0:35:44.440 --> 0:35:48.080 x Elon Musk's you know, the new name for Twitter 0:35:48.280 --> 0:35:52.640 has been trying to launch these payment services, effectively mobile 0:35:52.640 --> 0:35:55.120 banking through you know, the company that you use to 0:35:55.160 --> 0:35:59.680 send memes and and and the CFPB has been one 0:35:59.719 --> 0:36:03.759 of the there like CFPB, you know, is it has 0:36:03.800 --> 0:36:06.200 been you know, it's it's in the courts now, but 0:36:06.680 --> 0:36:10.000 the Trump administration is essentially attempting to shut it down. NITSA, 0:36:10.080 --> 0:36:13.359 the Highway regulators, they have been investigating Tesla. There are 0:36:13.400 --> 0:36:16.600 ways in which must could sort of clear a path 0:36:16.680 --> 0:36:19.799 in terms of from a regulatory perspective. But again, all 0:36:19.840 --> 0:36:24.120 these things are going to create political consequences downstream, political consequences, 0:36:24.400 --> 0:36:28.120 and that those it's going to be primarily Democrats, that's 0:36:28.120 --> 0:36:30.680 who we're seeing protesting in front of Tesla stores, but 0:36:30.840 --> 0:36:33.080 I would not be surprised if you also see some 0:36:33.280 --> 0:36:35.600 Republicans with concerns about this stuff as well. 0:36:35.920 --> 0:36:38.640 Well, it seems like now Max, the courts are really, 0:36:38.760 --> 0:36:42.799 as Carol mentioned, not rained in, but they've certainly said 0:36:42.800 --> 0:36:46.240 that some of what Elon Musk has done is not allowed, 0:36:46.880 --> 0:36:50.360 especially with regard to us AI D. You know, there 0:36:50.400 --> 0:36:53.560 are questions whether or not these employees can actually go 0:36:53.640 --> 0:36:56.440 back to work and if they're going to be reinstated 0:36:56.440 --> 0:36:58.479 full time. We don't know the answer to that yet, 0:36:59.480 --> 0:37:01.799 But do are the courts that raining him in? 0:37:02.760 --> 0:37:06.920 Yes, the courts are reigning in Doge and or at 0:37:07.000 --> 0:37:12.360 least maybe creating a situation where the what Musk is 0:37:12.400 --> 0:37:14.400 doing is not going to have a huge long term 0:37:14.440 --> 0:37:17.160 effect or even that it may end up costing more money, 0:37:17.160 --> 0:37:18.759 because of course, if you have to if you lay 0:37:18.760 --> 0:37:20.399 a bunch of people off, you spend a bunch of people, 0:37:20.560 --> 0:37:22.319 spend a bunch of money laying people off, and then 0:37:22.360 --> 0:37:24.200 you have to spend a bunch of money bringing them 0:37:24.239 --> 0:37:26.839 back online. That ends up costing more money. So there 0:37:26.920 --> 0:37:29.840 is a situation, there's a way in which some of 0:37:29.400 --> 0:37:31.400 the some of this stuff that's working its way through 0:37:31.480 --> 0:37:35.600 the courts ends up sort of blunting the impact of DOGE. 0:37:35.800 --> 0:37:38.080 I mean, it's important to remember Musk is not the 0:37:38.120 --> 0:37:41.360 only actor within the Trump administration who's or within the 0:37:41.360 --> 0:37:43.960 Republican Party who is trying to rein in parts of 0:37:44.000 --> 0:37:46.520 the federal government. And so so Trump is trying to 0:37:46.520 --> 0:37:50.040 do this as well. Congress will certainly, I think, at 0:37:50.160 --> 0:37:53.759 least attempt to put some of this into law. So 0:37:53.800 --> 0:37:56.080 there will be you know, the Musk will have some support. 0:37:56.120 --> 0:37:57.920 It's not just going to be Musk versus the courts. 0:37:58.680 --> 0:38:03.520 Should we assume that as long as Elon's deep pockets 0:38:03.600 --> 0:38:08.320 are around to support the Republicans and Trump's doings. 0:38:07.960 --> 0:38:09.240 That he's going to stick around. 0:38:09.400 --> 0:38:10.960 I think there's a lot of discussion about, you know, 0:38:11.000 --> 0:38:12.880 when does the president get tired of Elon? 0:38:13.040 --> 0:38:16.720 Right, Yes, that's the conventional wisdom is at some point 0:38:16.880 --> 0:38:19.800 Trump will get tired of seeing Elon Musk's you know face, 0:38:20.120 --> 0:38:23.759 you know, on TV or newspapers, hearing people talk about 0:38:23.800 --> 0:38:25.440 it when when they should be talking about all the 0:38:25.480 --> 0:38:27.960 great things he's done, get frustrated, and he'll get sort 0:38:27.960 --> 0:38:31.960 of iced out. I think that is not very likely, 0:38:32.040 --> 0:38:34.360 and it's for the exact reason you just said, Carol. 0:38:35.080 --> 0:38:39.239 Musk is a major donor to Republican campaigns. He will 0:38:39.239 --> 0:38:41.840 be a major force by his own account anyway, in 0:38:41.880 --> 0:38:46.000 the midterm elections. And really he is is a very 0:38:46.040 --> 0:38:49.160 important ally for President Trump because if Trump is trying 0:38:49.160 --> 0:38:51.839 to do something and there's opposition from Congress, he has 0:38:51.880 --> 0:38:54.600 this very very very very wealthy friend, Elon Musk, who 0:38:54.680 --> 0:38:57.400 can fund a primary challenge. The other thing is we 0:38:57.480 --> 0:39:00.960 saw this infomercial you know at the House where Trump 0:39:01.239 --> 0:39:03.120 you know, talked about all the wonderful things about Tesla 0:39:03.160 --> 0:39:05.440 and in fact bought a Tesla you know, on the 0:39:05.480 --> 0:39:08.640 south lawn of the White House, you know, potentially very 0:39:08.640 --> 0:39:11.879 helpful to Tesla. You know, that seemed to be the goal. 0:39:12.560 --> 0:39:15.440 Around the same time, New York Times reported that Musk 0:39:15.520 --> 0:39:18.840 had promised to put one hundred million dollars into Trump's 0:39:18.880 --> 0:39:22.799 own packs. So Musk is still donating money on top 0:39:22.840 --> 0:39:25.720 of the roughly three hundred million he put into the 0:39:25.760 --> 0:39:28.040 twenty twenty four cycle. He said he's going to put 0:39:28.080 --> 0:39:30.320 more into his own packs. He in fact is funding 0:39:30.640 --> 0:39:34.040 this Wisconsin State Supreme Court race. Right there are going 0:39:34.080 --> 0:39:36.600 to be more races, and he's giving Trump money. I mean, 0:39:36.640 --> 0:39:38.920 he is a very, very important la. I think the 0:39:39.320 --> 0:39:42.239 real question is does Musk get tired of this? Does 0:39:42.360 --> 0:39:44.719 Musk start to wonder do I really want to have 0:39:44.760 --> 0:39:46.600 a day to day role? And how much is that 0:39:46.680 --> 0:39:48.839 day to day role hurting my companies? Because you look 0:39:48.880 --> 0:39:51.279 at a stock price, investors are not super. 0:39:51.040 --> 0:39:53.840 Happy, all right, Always a lot going on and so 0:39:53.960 --> 0:39:55.680 appreciate it keeps us busy. 0:39:55.680 --> 0:39:56.440 I'm always confused. 0:39:56.440 --> 0:39:58.840 How many more headlines is it Trump versus Zylla? Like 0:39:58.920 --> 0:40:01.640 we get in any Max Chafkin, thank you so much. 0:40:01.719 --> 0:40:04.440 Calmness with Bloomberg Business be co host of the Elon Inc. Podcast, 0:40:04.480 --> 0:40:07.480 which you can find wherever you get your podcast. Also 0:40:07.640 --> 0:40:10.520 on the Bloomberg and at Bloomberg dot com and Max 0:40:10.560 --> 0:40:13.360 also the author of the contrarian Peter Teel and Silicon 0:40:13.440 --> 0:40:14.919 Valley's Pursuit of Power. Max. 0:40:14.920 --> 0:40:19.120 Thank you you're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. 0:40:19.320 --> 0:40:22.840 Catch us live weekday afternoons from two to five pm Eastern. 0:40:23.000 --> 0:40:26.840 Listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, 0:40:27.000 --> 0:40:29.640 or watch us live on YouTube. 0:40:30.160 --> 0:40:32.959 Well, Carnival reported earnings, and the stock at one point 0:40:33.000 --> 0:40:35.000 sold off more than six percent on the news. This 0:40:35.040 --> 0:40:38.520 after our key quarterly earnings forecast trailed estimates, adding to 0:40:38.600 --> 0:40:41.160 worries that a travel slowdown has spread to even the 0:40:41.160 --> 0:40:45.120 most robust corner of the market. However, Carnival did boost 0:40:45.200 --> 0:40:49.080 full year profit expectations, beating Wall Streets view, suggesting any 0:40:49.239 --> 0:40:52.279 slow down may prove transitory. Do you want to point 0:40:52.280 --> 0:40:54.520 out too? The stock is down about fifteen percent so 0:40:54.640 --> 0:40:56.200 far here in twenty twenty five. 0:40:56.560 --> 0:40:59.680 Let's get some context and more detail around the company's 0:40:59.719 --> 0:41:02.800 quarterly update. Great to have back with us. Josh Weinstein. 0:41:02.840 --> 0:41:05.920 He's president, CEO, and Chief Climate Officer of Carnival Corporation, 0:41:06.280 --> 0:41:09.200 and he joins us from Carnival's headquarters in Miami. 0:41:09.560 --> 0:41:11.239 Josh great to be talking with you. 0:41:11.320 --> 0:41:13.720 How are you very well? 0:41:13.760 --> 0:41:14.120 Thank you? 0:41:14.280 --> 0:41:15.760 How are you doing doing okay? 0:41:15.800 --> 0:41:18.479 Trying to keep up with everything that's coming at us 0:41:18.760 --> 0:41:21.040 on a daily basis, And I kind of want to 0:41:21.080 --> 0:41:23.720 start there, because there is a lot coming at anyone 0:41:23.760 --> 0:41:27.000 who's running a big company like yours today, whether it's 0:41:27.040 --> 0:41:29.000 out of Washington, whether it's out of. 0:41:29.120 --> 0:41:30.560 How the consumer is feeling. 0:41:30.880 --> 0:41:33.160 How would you describe the crew's business and how it 0:41:33.160 --> 0:41:35.160 compares from your last quarterly update? 0:41:35.480 --> 0:41:36.640 What has changed at all? 0:41:36.680 --> 0:41:39.120 Because I know you have been very optimistic, and it 0:41:39.120 --> 0:41:41.640 seems like you're still optimistic about the business based on 0:41:41.680 --> 0:41:42.280 the releases. 0:41:43.239 --> 0:41:46.800 Yeah, yeah, absolutely. So the thing that's changed from December 0:41:46.840 --> 0:41:49.400 to today is, well, we just completed our first quarter 0:41:49.880 --> 0:41:52.720 and instead of yields being up four point seven percent, 0:41:52.760 --> 0:41:54.600 which is what we guided to, they were up seven 0:41:54.600 --> 0:41:59.160 point three percent. And so clearly things went very very 0:41:59.200 --> 0:42:03.040 well in the first order. Consumers love to cruise, and 0:42:03.080 --> 0:42:07.160 we've got eight brands that are purposely tied to particular demographics, 0:42:07.200 --> 0:42:10.280 particular national markets, and it serves us very very well. 0:42:11.000 --> 0:42:14.120 And so what we see is enough strength in that 0:42:14.160 --> 0:42:17.920 first quarter that we can raise our yields for the 0:42:18.000 --> 0:42:21.880 year for our full year guidance, and that's basically saying 0:42:22.360 --> 0:42:26.600 that we're content to keep four percent plus. 0:42:26.320 --> 0:42:28.640 Yields for the remaining three. 0:42:28.480 --> 0:42:31.359 Quarters of the year, despite the fact that there is 0:42:31.560 --> 0:42:36.000 you know, geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty which certainly wasn't on 0:42:36.040 --> 0:42:38.080 the radar when we came up with our guidance to 0:42:38.080 --> 0:42:38.960 begin with in December. 0:42:39.239 --> 0:42:42.480 And yet investors seem to be at least initially disappointed 0:42:42.520 --> 0:42:46.560 over your second quarter even a forecast. Your forecast was 0:42:46.680 --> 0:42:48.919 one point three to two billion in the second quarter 0:42:48.960 --> 0:42:51.080 and as it expected one point three to five billion, 0:42:51.520 --> 0:42:53.000 should they be disappointed? 0:42:54.800 --> 0:42:57.399 You know what, I guess I'll answer by saying our 0:42:57.520 --> 0:43:01.360 December guidance was basically saying we're going to be about 0:43:02.239 --> 0:43:04.000 was it a buck seventy give or take for the 0:43:04.040 --> 0:43:06.839 year on EPs we just came out with guidance. 0:43:06.600 --> 0:43:07.680 Said buck eighty three. 0:43:07.920 --> 0:43:11.600 We all performed on revenue yields on board. On board 0:43:11.600 --> 0:43:14.280 trends are really really healthy with our with our consumers. 0:43:14.360 --> 0:43:17.359 So I would argue that we should be higher than 0:43:17.400 --> 0:43:20.040 where we were in December since our results are better 0:43:20.200 --> 0:43:22.120 than where we were in December, But that's really up 0:43:22.120 --> 0:43:24.880 to up to the Street. Our job is to deliver 0:43:25.360 --> 0:43:27.239 and hopefully over deliver, which is what we did in 0:43:27.280 --> 0:43:27.839 the first quarter. 0:43:28.680 --> 0:43:30.319 So Josh, let's talk a little bit more about that 0:43:30.320 --> 0:43:32.800 consumer because in the press release you noted that Carnival's 0:43:32.840 --> 0:43:37.319 not completely immune from heightened macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility, and 0:43:37.360 --> 0:43:40.160 you're still taking up earnings expectations for the year. You 0:43:40.239 --> 0:43:42.440 remain on track to have another stellar year across the 0:43:42.600 --> 0:43:46.800 entire brand of cruises. Why are we hearing then from 0:43:46.960 --> 0:43:51.279 airlines that consumers are pulling back? Why are we not 0:43:51.400 --> 0:43:52.880 seeing that in your business? 0:43:54.120 --> 0:43:57.359 Well, I think there's a couple of things to differentiate. 0:43:57.440 --> 0:44:01.480 First of all, airlines aren't just for or holidays. Airlines 0:44:01.480 --> 0:44:06.520 are business travel. It is holidays, it's conferences, it's government travel. 0:44:07.120 --> 0:44:11.040 We are really holidays, we are vacations. So we're in 0:44:11.120 --> 0:44:14.080 a different bucket than where than where airlines are. You know, 0:44:14.120 --> 0:44:17.680 we came in to twenty twenty five the best book 0:44:17.719 --> 0:44:20.959 position we've ever been in at higher prices. We came 0:44:21.040 --> 0:44:24.040 out at the end of the first quarter still being 0:44:24.120 --> 0:44:28.799 in line with record occupancy percentage and price is still 0:44:28.880 --> 0:44:33.000 nicely higher. We're eighty percent book for the year, and 0:44:33.040 --> 0:44:36.719 so we have relatively limited inventory to sell when it 0:44:36.719 --> 0:44:39.520 comes to twenty twenty five. At the same time, our 0:44:39.640 --> 0:44:42.160 guests and our brands aren't just focused on in year. 0:44:42.520 --> 0:44:44.040 You know, we just came out of the first quart 0:44:44.080 --> 0:44:46.439 of the wave period, which is considered the traditional big 0:44:46.480 --> 0:44:49.839 push for selling, and we set a record for the 0:44:49.840 --> 0:44:51.880 most volume we've ever done during. 0:44:51.719 --> 0:44:53.640 Wave for future years out. 0:44:53.920 --> 0:44:55.960 So people aren't just thinking about the short term, they're 0:44:55.960 --> 0:44:58.000 thinking about the long term, which is exactly what we're 0:44:58.040 --> 0:44:58.800 doing as a company. 0:44:59.400 --> 0:45:01.239 But are you noticed any change in the tone of 0:45:01.280 --> 0:45:03.760 the bookings, the pace of the bookings, or perhaps even 0:45:03.880 --> 0:45:06.879 people canceling because of their own uncertainty. I understand there's 0:45:06.880 --> 0:45:10.200 this difference between discretionary spend and business spend, but after all, 0:45:10.239 --> 0:45:13.160 discretionary is discretionary, and that's often the first thing to 0:45:13.200 --> 0:45:14.600 go if people are feeling uncertain. 0:45:15.760 --> 0:45:18.719 Yeah, you know, we haven't seen any noticeable change in 0:45:18.760 --> 0:45:22.719 trends on cancelations, certainly, as we mentioned on the call, 0:45:22.880 --> 0:45:25.520 you know, there were ups and downs over the first quarter. 0:45:25.520 --> 0:45:28.879 There's ups and downs all the time, but we got 0:45:28.920 --> 0:45:32.359 through our period exactly at pretty much the highest point 0:45:32.360 --> 0:45:33.719 that you can get at at least for us in 0:45:33.760 --> 0:45:36.960 our history, and we feel good about the position that 0:45:37.320 --> 0:45:40.680 puts us in. Like I said, onboard spending, you know, 0:45:40.719 --> 0:45:43.000 it's up about ten percent year over year in the 0:45:43.040 --> 0:45:46.480 first quarter. That's an acceleration of year over year performance 0:45:46.560 --> 0:45:49.080 versus where we were in the fourth quarter, and at 0:45:49.160 --> 0:45:50.920 least into the first couple of weeks of March. With 0:45:51.000 --> 0:45:54.120 cruises that have ended, we really haven't seen a slowdown 0:45:54.160 --> 0:45:57.400 in that consumer behavior that onboard spending. And so you know, 0:45:57.400 --> 0:46:00.160 at the end of the day, people in good time 0:46:00.239 --> 0:46:02.640 and bad times, they take holiday, they. 0:46:02.480 --> 0:46:03.800 Take a break. They need a break. 0:46:03.960 --> 0:46:07.080 You could argue in bad times they need that break 0:46:07.160 --> 0:46:08.840 even more than they do in the good times. 0:46:09.719 --> 0:46:11.480 And that's what cruising is. It's a break. 0:46:11.520 --> 0:46:13.680 It's a way to relax, to get away from things, 0:46:13.760 --> 0:46:15.080 enjoy time with friends and family. 0:46:15.080 --> 0:46:16.439 That's what people pay for now. 0:46:16.880 --> 0:46:21.479 And when you line up cruise versus other vacation alternatives, 0:46:21.520 --> 0:46:23.520 frustrating as it is for me as a CEO of 0:46:23.560 --> 0:46:26.640 a cruise company, we're a great value. And the fact 0:46:26.760 --> 0:46:29.960 is if people are getting concerned, if there's uncertainty, if 0:46:30.000 --> 0:46:32.480 there's noise in the background, people are searching for more 0:46:32.719 --> 0:46:35.839 value for their money. And that's exactly what we do, 0:46:36.520 --> 0:46:38.360 so it plays very well into our strength. 0:46:38.680 --> 0:46:41.360 So just for the record, I could go on a 0:46:41.400 --> 0:46:43.040 cruise for about a month right now because I need 0:46:43.040 --> 0:46:43.680 a break. 0:46:43.440 --> 0:46:45.919 But we'd love to have you. We'd love to have you. 0:46:46.120 --> 0:46:48.560 Having said that, what about in terms of pricing, are 0:46:48.600 --> 0:46:51.960 you guys able to maintain pricing? Nothing changing in that 0:46:52.000 --> 0:46:56.160 regard either for the first quarter or even for the 0:46:56.160 --> 0:46:57.400 outlook for the second quarter. 0:46:58.719 --> 0:47:01.160 Yeah, you know, so, like I said, the first quarter, 0:47:01.400 --> 0:47:03.319 you know, our yields year over year, we're up over 0:47:03.360 --> 0:47:06.280 seven percent and over a two year period, we're talking 0:47:06.320 --> 0:47:08.480 about twenty four percent higher yields. 0:47:08.600 --> 0:47:10.040 Yeah, for the first quarter. 0:47:10.719 --> 0:47:12.840 When we look at the rest of the year Ques 0:47:12.880 --> 0:47:15.759 two through four, we're projecting a little bit over four 0:47:15.840 --> 0:47:19.680 percent yield improvement year over year for that nine month 0:47:19.719 --> 0:47:23.120 period remainder of the year. So you know, look, it's 0:47:23.200 --> 0:47:25.560 hard going right, It's not like anything is easy, and 0:47:25.600 --> 0:47:26.520 we got to work hard. 0:47:26.520 --> 0:47:29.000 Our brands work hard to make that become a reality. 0:47:29.000 --> 0:47:32.279 And they do it through good revenue management techniques, through 0:47:32.320 --> 0:47:35.360 the great advertising that they're doing, and then ultimately delivering 0:47:35.440 --> 0:47:38.480 onboard experiences that people want to pay for. And then 0:47:38.480 --> 0:47:40.600 they get off of our ships and they tell their 0:47:40.600 --> 0:47:43.399 friends and family how amazing it is, and we get more. 0:47:44.280 --> 0:47:45.920 Hey, one of the things we wanted to ask you 0:47:46.320 --> 0:47:50.000 is something that in late February, the US Commerce Secretary 0:47:50.000 --> 0:47:52.439 of Howard Lutnik, he made some comments about how US 0:47:52.480 --> 0:47:55.839 based cruise companies Josh should be paying taxes even on 0:47:55.880 --> 0:47:58.720 ships that are registered abroad. We saw your stock, along 0:47:58.719 --> 0:48:02.160 with everybody in the major crew space sell off on 0:48:02.239 --> 0:48:05.160 his words. Even though analysts indicated the worry may be overblown. 0:48:05.200 --> 0:48:07.719 They said, we've heard this before over the years. Is 0:48:07.760 --> 0:48:10.920 it overblown? Are you talking with a Trump administration about this? 0:48:10.960 --> 0:48:14.120 And if there was a US registration change, what would 0:48:14.160 --> 0:48:15.120 that mean for you guys. 0:48:16.800 --> 0:48:20.480 So clearly we're operating in the confines of US laws 0:48:20.560 --> 0:48:24.080 as well we should shipping. International shipping is based on 0:48:24.520 --> 0:48:26.920 very specific tax regimes that are set up in the 0:48:27.000 --> 0:48:29.240 US and all over the world, and effectively it's based 0:48:29.280 --> 0:48:32.479 on reciprocity. So we feel like we're in a good place. 0:48:32.520 --> 0:48:34.759 We're doing what we should be doing. Having said that, 0:48:35.320 --> 0:48:39.040 anything out of the administration, including Secretary Lutnik, we certainly 0:48:39.080 --> 0:48:42.520 take seriously and we're working hard to understand what the 0:48:42.560 --> 0:48:45.560 concerns are and how we can address them if any 0:48:45.800 --> 0:48:49.040 there's really nothing, there's nothing to report on from my 0:48:49.120 --> 0:48:51.880 perspective as far as you know what that. 0:48:51.760 --> 0:48:53.520 Means or where things could be going. 0:48:53.840 --> 0:48:57.640 But we'll stay on our guard and do whatever we 0:48:57.680 --> 0:48:59.719 need to do to make sure we're staying on the 0:48:59.760 --> 0:49:02.160 right side of of policy. 0:49:03.000 --> 0:49:06.239 Josh, why don't you register in the US? Is it 0:49:06.719 --> 0:49:10.880 regulatory reasons? Is it tax reasons? Is it labor reasons? 0:49:11.000 --> 0:49:13.080 Is it all of the above? Why don't you register 0:49:13.120 --> 0:49:13.640 in the US. 0:49:14.000 --> 0:49:16.160 Yeah, it's just not that simple. 0:49:16.200 --> 0:49:17.400 You don't just take a ship and all of a 0:49:17.440 --> 0:49:20.200 sudden ship you can't just switch to US registry. 0:49:20.200 --> 0:49:21.600 It's it's just not that simple. 0:49:21.800 --> 0:49:25.000 And and really it's a it's a it's a people 0:49:25.040 --> 0:49:27.200 to go to school for classes for this right about 0:49:27.239 --> 0:49:30.240 international shipping and what what it means, how it works. 0:49:30.360 --> 0:49:30.560 Uh. 0:49:30.600 --> 0:49:33.839 And it's been in place for much longer than I've 0:49:33.880 --> 0:49:34.320 been alive. 0:49:34.600 --> 0:49:34.799 Uh. 0:49:34.880 --> 0:49:36.960 And and so you know, we could we can do 0:49:37.000 --> 0:49:39.560 a separate session on that, but but suffice it to say, 0:49:40.960 --> 0:49:44.080 it's a regime that is that is well founded and 0:49:44.080 --> 0:49:45.680 and it's where we are right now. 0:49:45.880 --> 0:49:48.600 All right, So it's not something that we should think about. 0:49:48.760 --> 0:49:50.520 I mean, it can be done, though. 0:49:50.400 --> 0:49:54.880 Right, what what is the it. 0:49:54.560 --> 0:49:56.600 In terms of registering in the United States? 0:49:57.600 --> 0:50:00.920 It's honestly not that simple based on how you law works. 0:50:00.960 --> 0:50:02.160 It's just not that simple. 0:50:02.400 --> 0:50:02.760 Okay. 0:50:03.120 --> 0:50:05.120 Would that be a conversation though, then to have with 0:50:05.160 --> 0:50:07.520 the Trump administration Josh and say, listen, guys, if it 0:50:07.600 --> 0:50:10.760 was simpler, I mean, they're all about making things simpler, 0:50:10.920 --> 0:50:12.000 right efficient? 0:50:12.520 --> 0:50:14.160 Is there a conversation to be had? 0:50:15.120 --> 0:50:17.280 Oh, We're happy to talk to the administration truly. 0:50:17.440 --> 0:50:19.200 Okay, Okay, Hey, listen. 0:50:19.280 --> 0:50:20.480 One of the things we wanted to talk to you 0:50:20.480 --> 0:50:22.920 about in a big way, and I've seen it firsthand, 0:50:23.160 --> 0:50:25.640 is the island destinations that you guys have and it 0:50:25.640 --> 0:50:28.440 seems to be a continued, you know, move for you 0:50:28.520 --> 0:50:32.120 guys and expansion. You open Celebration Key this July. This 0:50:32.200 --> 0:50:36.280 is in Grand Bahama Island. How do these island destinations? 0:50:36.280 --> 0:50:37.960 We've talked to you about it, but it continues to 0:50:37.960 --> 0:50:40.319 be something we find really interesting. How does it fit 0:50:40.400 --> 0:50:42.960 into the North American crew strategy and how important it 0:50:43.040 --> 0:50:44.840 is I always think about to the top line of 0:50:44.840 --> 0:50:46.320 the profitability picture. 0:50:47.680 --> 0:50:50.560 Yeah, So for us, what we're doing with Celebration Key, 0:50:50.600 --> 0:50:53.520 which opens in July, it's a bit of a first 0:50:53.520 --> 0:50:55.960 for us. Even though we have a wonderful footprint around 0:50:55.960 --> 0:51:00.279 the Caribbean, we've really, we've we've built and created these 0:51:00.320 --> 0:51:03.440 destinations really as a service to our brands and something 0:51:03.480 --> 0:51:07.520 that's supportive of and really supplemental to what brands are 0:51:07.520 --> 0:51:10.000 doing and leading with with a cruise experience that makes 0:51:10.000 --> 0:51:14.080 them so loved. What we're doing with Celebration Key, which 0:51:14.200 --> 0:51:18.080 doesn't even exist yet and yet it's captivated the audience 0:51:18.120 --> 0:51:22.560 and captivated the imagination of Carnival cruisers and others, is 0:51:22.760 --> 0:51:26.560 we want to also lead with destination as a driver 0:51:26.680 --> 0:51:29.600 of consideration, of a driver for people saying I need 0:51:29.680 --> 0:51:32.440 to go on Carnival Cruise Line because I'll get to 0:51:32.440 --> 0:51:35.440 go to Celebration Key or because I'll get to go 0:51:35.560 --> 0:51:38.160 to relax Away Half Moon Key, because it's the only 0:51:38.200 --> 0:51:38.959 way to get there. 0:51:39.640 --> 0:51:40.719 And so we believe that. 0:51:40.719 --> 0:51:45.240 There's a tremendous amount of untapped value there in revenue generation, 0:51:45.600 --> 0:51:48.120 as well as the fact that these destinations are built 0:51:48.120 --> 0:51:51.400 close to the United States, hence we consume less fuel 0:51:51.440 --> 0:51:53.240 in order to get there, which saves money is obviously 0:51:53.320 --> 0:51:54.000 good for the planet. 0:51:54.320 --> 0:51:56.640 Hey listen, twenty seconds left here what is your most 0:51:56.680 --> 0:51:57.560 popular destination? 0:51:57.680 --> 0:52:00.120 Where do most people want to go and what it? 0:52:01.000 --> 0:52:03.319 Wow, we carry thirteen million people last year. They want 0:52:03.400 --> 0:52:05.680 they want to go to a lot of places. I'd say, 0:52:05.680 --> 0:52:07.480 if you're going to ask me, what's my top that 0:52:07.520 --> 0:52:09.239 I've ever been to, I got to say, you got 0:52:09.239 --> 0:52:11.319 to go on a cruise to Alaska, and you gotta 0:52:11.360 --> 0:52:13.799 go with Princess Hall in America or Carnival because they 0:52:13.800 --> 0:52:15.839 do it in an amazing way and QNR for those 0:52:15.880 --> 0:52:17.880 who are looking for the for the luxury end. 0:52:18.320 --> 0:52:19.319 But if you want to see the. 0:52:19.239 --> 0:52:21.160 Great State, the only way to do it is with 0:52:21.200 --> 0:52:23.080 a great brand that can take you on both c 0:52:23.640 --> 0:52:26.319 and with our land experiences. Because we've got hotels and 0:52:26.360 --> 0:52:29.719 motor coaches and Glasstone railcars and you name it, we 0:52:29.760 --> 0:52:30.880 got it up in Alaska. 0:52:30.960 --> 0:52:32.640 I just want to go somewherehere I get a cocktail 0:52:32.680 --> 0:52:34.120 with like a little umbrella in it. 0:52:34.200 --> 0:52:37.279 I just I'm that we also serve cocktails with to 0:52:37.320 --> 0:52:38.000 go to Alaska. 0:52:38.880 --> 0:52:41.560 Josh, thank you so much. I always appreciate the time 0:52:41.560 --> 0:52:42.000 you give us. 0:52:42.080 --> 0:52:42.399 Be well. 0:52:42.480 --> 0:52:45.160 Be well, Josh Weinstein, President, CEO and Chief Climate Office 0:52:45.160 --> 0:52:48.880 of Carnival Corporation, joining us from Carnival's headquarters in Miami. 0:52:55.080 --> 0:52:58.640 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us 0:52:58.719 --> 0:53:02.160 live weekday afternoon from two to five pm Eastern. Listen 0:53:02.200 --> 0:53:05.760 on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, 0:53:05.920 --> 0:53:08.719 or watch us live on YouTube. 0:53:09.080 --> 0:53:12.480 Harvard University this past week announced that students whose families 0:53:12.480 --> 0:53:15.440 earned two hundred thousand dollars or less annually will be 0:53:15.440 --> 0:53:18.680 able to attend the college tuition free, while at the 0:53:18.719 --> 0:53:22.240 same time, some of America's most prestigious colleges are issuing 0:53:22.360 --> 0:53:23.880 bonds at a record pace. 0:53:24.239 --> 0:53:27.400 As public opinion on higher education continues to sour and 0:53:27.440 --> 0:53:31.359 the Trump administration threatens huge spending cuts, American universities are 0:53:31.400 --> 0:53:33.040 facing some serious challenges. 0:53:33.239 --> 0:53:37.239 Bloomberg BusinessWeek editor Bradstone sat down with some university presidents 0:53:37.520 --> 0:53:40.680 to hear how they are navigating a potential funding crisis 0:53:40.680 --> 0:53:43.719 while also selling the value of a degree. He talked 0:53:43.719 --> 0:53:45.720 with Tim and Bloomberg's Emily Graffeo. 0:53:46.000 --> 0:53:47.600 We actually interviewed five. 0:53:47.880 --> 0:53:51.200 We brought together five university presidents at the end of February, 0:53:51.520 --> 0:53:54.279 and that was one week before the federal government, before 0:53:54.320 --> 0:53:57.320 the Trump administration threatened to withdraw four hundred million dollars 0:53:57.360 --> 0:53:59.759 in funding from Columbia University. 0:54:00.040 --> 0:54:02.440 So yes, in some ways the timing was. 0:54:02.400 --> 0:54:05.880 Great because there was these these clouds were on the horizon. 0:54:06.719 --> 0:54:10.720 In other ways, this publishing this package on higher education 0:54:11.600 --> 0:54:13.520 is like trying to jump onto a moving horse, and 0:54:13.560 --> 0:54:14.640 things are moving very quickly. 0:54:14.800 --> 0:54:19.480 Yeah, I mean, the news is happening very quick. Decision 0:54:19.480 --> 0:54:22.000 makers you spoke to at these top universities, they were 0:54:22.040 --> 0:54:25.960 public and private schools, they were large schools and small schools. 0:54:26.239 --> 0:54:28.920 They were liberal arts schools and state schools. It really 0:54:29.000 --> 0:54:29.720 runs the gamut. 0:54:29.840 --> 0:54:30.680 Who were these people? 0:54:30.760 --> 0:54:32.000 And they're the brave few. 0:54:32.080 --> 0:54:35.080 We put out the core far in line, and look, 0:54:35.120 --> 0:54:37.640 I mean, this is a tough time for university presidents, 0:54:37.800 --> 0:54:40.719 maybe the hardest job in America right now, not only 0:54:40.800 --> 0:54:45.880 the pre Trump factors of rising tuition costs, dropping mail enrollment, 0:54:46.000 --> 0:54:49.480 the ambiguity around test scores, protests in twenty three and 0:54:49.520 --> 0:54:52.400 twenty four, and then the kind of post Trump factors, 0:54:53.600 --> 0:54:58.200 the specter of an endowment tax NIH cutting funding, and 0:54:58.239 --> 0:55:01.560 now the threats around the EI and anti Semitism. But 0:55:01.640 --> 0:55:05.319 really it's the administration viewing universities as a source of 0:55:05.760 --> 0:55:09.120 elitism and something of the enemy. So yes, we got 0:55:09.120 --> 0:55:13.200 the presidents of New York University, Marist University, Grinnell College, 0:55:13.360 --> 0:55:16.239 the University of Colorado A Boulder, and the University of 0:55:16.600 --> 0:55:19.239 Rhode Island all together in a room in New York 0:55:19.239 --> 0:55:20.800 City to hash out these issues. 0:55:21.200 --> 0:55:24.839 Rad I found it interesting that this word crisis came 0:55:24.960 --> 0:55:29.560 up multiple times in your article. I mean, how much 0:55:30.000 --> 0:55:33.080 of the job of being a college president is now 0:55:33.719 --> 0:55:35.680 a job of crisis management? 0:55:37.080 --> 0:55:39.640 I don't think historically it was one. 0:55:39.680 --> 0:55:41.560 I mean I think this was, you know, this used 0:55:41.560 --> 0:55:44.719 to be the statesman role. I don't know if we 0:55:44.719 --> 0:55:47.359 could say it was ever particularly easy. But the thing 0:55:47.360 --> 0:55:50.800 that has really happened, I think, probably starting with October seventh, 0:55:50.800 --> 0:55:55.120 twenty twenty three, and the attack on Israel from Hamas, 0:55:55.960 --> 0:55:59.360 there have been a set of constituencies at universities that 0:55:59.400 --> 0:56:03.080 are all whose interests are all diametrically kind of opposed. 0:56:03.120 --> 0:56:07.360 You have students, particularly at some of these elite universities, 0:56:07.360 --> 0:56:11.040 particularly of my alma mater, Columbia, inheriting the mantle of 0:56:11.120 --> 0:56:16.680 student activism and protest, and then you have alumni that 0:56:16.760 --> 0:56:19.600 are very much against us on campus activism, that feel 0:56:19.680 --> 0:56:21.920 like the college community. 0:56:21.400 --> 0:56:22.960 Experience has been co opted. 0:56:23.320 --> 0:56:26.040 You've got the federal government now with its agenda saying 0:56:26.120 --> 0:56:30.640 that the campus has moved too far left. These are 0:56:30.680 --> 0:56:34.880 places of liberal thought and anti conservative thought. You know, 0:56:34.920 --> 0:56:37.000 take those arguments or leave them. But if you're a 0:56:37.120 --> 0:56:40.440 university president right now, you're kind of buffeted by all 0:56:40.480 --> 0:56:42.800 these different wins. And I think it was on display 0:56:42.920 --> 0:56:46.560 when the presidents of Harvard and Yale and eventually Columbia 0:56:46.880 --> 0:56:50.360 were asked to testify in twenty twenty four and basically 0:56:50.400 --> 0:56:52.799 ended up all losing their jobs because there's really not 0:56:53.000 --> 0:56:55.440 an easy way out of all this conflict. 0:56:55.560 --> 0:56:58.160 Yeah, it's been pretty remarkable to watch, and I guess 0:56:58.160 --> 0:57:00.160 when you explain it that way, it makes sense to 0:57:00.200 --> 0:57:03.400 why university presidents were a little reticent to get in 0:57:03.400 --> 0:57:05.920 a room and speak with the editor of Bloomberg BusinessWeek. 0:57:07.200 --> 0:57:10.480 It goes beyond though protests, Brad, because there are questions 0:57:10.520 --> 0:57:12.920 you raise and hear about shifting demographics, things that have 0:57:12.960 --> 0:57:17.160 been playing out over the long term, but also recently 0:57:17.600 --> 0:57:21.880 of funding losses for these schools and the importance of 0:57:22.520 --> 0:57:26.880 these universities providing employees and leaders for the next generation 0:57:26.920 --> 0:57:29.960 of American businesses. And there seems to be this tension 0:57:30.040 --> 0:57:33.520 right now that's playing out with maybe a lack of 0:57:33.600 --> 0:57:38.040 understanding of the importance of that federal funding going into 0:57:39.040 --> 0:57:41.080 training those people who make the next innovations. 0:57:41.160 --> 0:57:43.800 And that's where I think the roundtable really really was 0:57:44.080 --> 0:57:47.440 an excellent exercise. I mean, they came together and they 0:57:47.560 --> 0:57:51.360 really made the argument that universities matter, that these are 0:57:51.480 --> 0:57:55.320 drivers of scientific and medical research, that this is a 0:57:55.360 --> 0:57:58.120 magnet bringing the best and brightest from around the world 0:57:58.120 --> 0:58:02.240 to the United States in the case for knowledge for research, 0:58:02.600 --> 0:58:05.400 and saying this strengthens the United. 0:58:05.080 --> 0:58:08.960 States and why would you ever kneecap it? And you 0:58:09.000 --> 0:58:10.040 know so yes. 0:58:11.320 --> 0:58:14.920 There was also the private industry argument, Justin Schwartz, the 0:58:15.000 --> 0:58:18.800 chancellor of University of Colorado a Boulder, saying that business 0:58:18.840 --> 0:58:22.320 needs a human capital supply chain and that is the 0:58:22.400 --> 0:58:25.400 role of universities. And then if you undermine that, talent 0:58:25.480 --> 0:58:28.880 gets cut and you handicap the US in its direct 0:58:28.880 --> 0:58:31.640 competition with China and other countries. They also made the 0:58:31.640 --> 0:58:33.840 point that, you know, the US is already kind of 0:58:34.320 --> 0:58:37.080 lagging a little bit. We used to lead in patents 0:58:37.120 --> 0:58:39.760 in the number of research papers published, We're not number 0:58:39.760 --> 0:58:42.840 one anymore. So they're making the argument this should be 0:58:42.880 --> 0:58:47.040 a time of reinvestment and not curtailing for political reasons. 0:58:47.200 --> 0:58:49.880 The financial foundation of these universities. 0:58:50.960 --> 0:58:55.240 You asked a very short and pointed question, is college 0:58:55.240 --> 0:58:58.240 too expensive? What did the presidents have to say to 0:58:58.280 --> 0:58:58.760 that question. 0:58:58.920 --> 0:59:01.440 I think they all agreed, you know, that there are 0:59:01.560 --> 0:59:04.280 investments that they have had to make to keep up 0:59:04.360 --> 0:59:08.600 with rising expenses and the quality of life for students. 0:59:08.920 --> 0:59:12.040 They also make the point, maybe somewhat cheapishly, that this 0:59:12.200 --> 0:59:15.480 is still a great ROI that college is one of 0:59:15.520 --> 0:59:18.320 the best investments a young person can make. But they 0:59:18.320 --> 0:59:22.560 talked about alternative things are trying to do, like no 0:59:22.760 --> 0:59:26.760 loan financing for students and making sure their students aren't 0:59:26.800 --> 0:59:29.439 graduating with a load of debt that weighs them down 0:59:30.200 --> 0:59:33.280 in their careers. But I think it's sort of an 0:59:33.320 --> 0:59:36.640 unsolved problem, and it's you know, interesting to me that 0:59:36.680 --> 0:59:40.200 these are the best minds in the country and the 0:59:40.800 --> 0:59:43.080 challenge of rising tuition is one that has yet to 0:59:43.120 --> 0:59:43.560 be solved. 0:59:43.640 --> 0:59:46.040 Linda Mills, when asked about the increasing number of people 0:59:46.120 --> 0:59:49.600 questioning the value of college, she referred to the college 0:59:49.600 --> 0:59:52.120 as a whole in universities as a whole, as an 0:59:52.120 --> 0:59:55.880 industry and I'm wondering how you view that word is 0:59:55.960 --> 0:59:57.240 higher education and industry. 0:59:57.800 --> 1:00:02.640 So, yes, Linna Mills is the president NYU, it is 1:00:02.680 --> 1:00:06.120 an industry, right. I mean, these are massive, massive institutions 1:00:06.160 --> 1:00:10.160 with incredible endowments and investment arms, and particularly in New 1:00:10.200 --> 1:00:14.000 York City, great real estate holdings, and they are corporations 1:00:14.040 --> 1:00:18.400 under themselves. They operate with a very unusual set of circumstances. 1:00:18.440 --> 1:00:23.000 They're generally nonprofit institutions, and as we've been really finding out, 1:00:23.120 --> 1:00:26.400 they get an enormous amount of their income from the 1:00:26.440 --> 1:00:28.840 federal government, and I think in some cases it's almost 1:00:28.920 --> 1:00:32.880 like one one third. And so they're also they serve 1:00:33.480 --> 1:00:37.680 a high profile public purpose, and they're quite politically vulnerable 1:00:37.720 --> 1:00:40.200 in this in this environment, and so I think what 1:00:40.240 --> 1:00:42.840 we're seeing now is a lot of these universities really 1:00:42.880 --> 1:00:47.960 try to get on the right side of the Trump administration, 1:00:48.320 --> 1:00:50.960 as many companies are doing. Perhaps that's the best evidence 1:00:50.960 --> 1:00:53.440 that it is in industry. Just like many companies are 1:00:53.480 --> 1:00:57.080 scrubbing their websites and they're all their public communication of 1:00:57.120 --> 1:01:01.080 the phrase DEI, you know a lot of universities are 1:01:01.120 --> 1:01:01.760 doing that as well. 1:01:01.920 --> 1:01:05.080 Brad, what were the presidents hopeful about they are obviously 1:01:05.120 --> 1:01:08.640 working with, you know, the future generations of America. What 1:01:09.040 --> 1:01:11.320 jumped out to you in their responses, Yeah. 1:01:11.160 --> 1:01:14.400 We did, We did ask that. But look, I'm not 1:01:14.440 --> 1:01:17.200 going to pull any punches here. I think that you know, 1:01:17.280 --> 1:01:19.480 this is a tough time for them. You know, there 1:01:19.520 --> 1:01:22.520 were things that we talked to them about, like declining 1:01:22.600 --> 1:01:25.520 mail enrollment that they you know, it's sixty forty on 1:01:25.560 --> 1:01:27.920 some college campuses, that they just don't have an answer 1:01:28.000 --> 1:01:30.560 to right now. They say, you know, these problems are 1:01:30.560 --> 1:01:35.920 starting in early education, that men lack role models right now, 1:01:36.680 --> 1:01:40.439 you know, the political situation is becoming increasingly difficult for them. 1:01:40.640 --> 1:01:42.440 You know, we did ask them what they were hopeful 1:01:42.520 --> 1:01:46.080 about the fact that you know, they still have you know, 1:01:46.280 --> 1:01:49.960 dynamic campuses and tens of thousands of students engaged in 1:01:51.280 --> 1:01:54.480 you know, cancer research and finding the next drug and 1:01:55.480 --> 1:01:59.920 understanding you know, maternal health and all those topics that 1:02:00.160 --> 1:02:03.400 so important that that keeps him going. But you know, 1:02:03.840 --> 1:02:07.200 by and large, their attention has had to be diverted 1:02:07.440 --> 1:02:09.160 to some of these much more difficult issues. 1:02:09.240 --> 1:02:12.280 Bradstone he's the editor of Bloomberg a BusinessWeek. Check out 1:02:12.320 --> 1:02:14.840 everything in at Bloomberg Business Week at Bloomberg dot com, 1:02:14.880 --> 1:02:18.200 slash BusinessWeek, and of course, on the Bloomberg terminal. You're 1:02:18.200 --> 1:02:20.280 listening to and watching Bloomberg BusinessWeek. 1:02:22.280 --> 1:02:26.040 This is the Bloomberg Business Week Podcast. Listen live each 1:02:26.080 --> 1:02:29.400 weekday starting at two pm Eastern on Applecarplay and the 1:02:29.440 --> 1:02:32.280 Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also 1:02:32.440 --> 1:02:35.760 listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, 1:02:36.240 --> 1:02:38.880 Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 1:02:39.960 --> 1:02:42.840 As we just heard, university presidents are finding college degrees 1:02:42.880 --> 1:02:45.240 a bit of a tough sell through. On top of 1:02:45.240 --> 1:02:49.080 that skyrocketing tuition costs and artificial intelligence in the classroom, 1:02:49.080 --> 1:02:52.040 and college will likely not be the same in the 1:02:52.160 --> 1:02:52.800 years to come. 1:02:53.120 --> 1:02:56.120 Kathleen Alaski has thoughts on the future of college. She's 1:02:56.200 --> 1:02:59.320 founder of the nonprofit Education Design Lab. She's also the 1:02:59.360 --> 1:03:02.360 author of the book Who Needs College Anymore? Imagining a 1:03:02.400 --> 1:03:04.000 future where degrees won't matter. 1:03:04.320 --> 1:03:07.120 The problem even for eighteen year olds right now, is 1:03:07.160 --> 1:03:10.280 that they really see still a kind of college or 1:03:10.320 --> 1:03:14.480 bust narrative going on in the country. We have we 1:03:14.520 --> 1:03:17.640 say college is too expensive, it's maybe not worth it, 1:03:17.760 --> 1:03:19.520 and so we have a lot of people, you know, 1:03:19.600 --> 1:03:24.200 enrollment is down in the degree form and it's to 1:03:24.280 --> 1:03:28.160 drop pretty quite a lot since twenty ten. It's starting 1:03:28.160 --> 1:03:29.920 to it's starting to shift up a little bit. But 1:03:29.960 --> 1:03:34.320 what's interesting is the way that enrollment is improving right 1:03:34.360 --> 1:03:38.680 now is because of short term certificates and other forms 1:03:38.800 --> 1:03:42.640 of enrollment that colleges are starting to offer. You know, 1:03:42.640 --> 1:03:46.080 they're competing with like the boot camps and apprenticeships that 1:03:46.200 --> 1:03:49.920 are that are having trouble getting to scale, and colleges 1:03:49.920 --> 1:03:53.160 themselves are starting to offer alternatives. And so wrote I 1:03:53.200 --> 1:03:58.040 wrote the book really to raise the argument that we 1:03:58.080 --> 1:04:02.200 need a better fund and remove the stigmas from alternatives 1:04:02.240 --> 1:04:06.640 to college, because only thirty eight percent of Americans have 1:04:06.680 --> 1:04:09.160 a four year degree, and yet we tell all of 1:04:09.200 --> 1:04:11.560 our kids, you know, that they have to either go 1:04:11.640 --> 1:04:14.640 into debt or figure out how to get that four 1:04:14.720 --> 1:04:17.840 year degree. That's starting to change. It hasn't changed yet, 1:04:17.920 --> 1:04:19.720 So I still, you know, I think you have to 1:04:19.720 --> 1:04:22.080 give a lot of caveats when you're giving advice today. 1:04:22.320 --> 1:04:24.840 So can you speak a bit more to those alternatives 1:04:24.880 --> 1:04:27.000 in terms of we think about a traditional four year 1:04:27.080 --> 1:04:29.360 university or maybe a two year community college. Can you 1:04:29.400 --> 1:04:31.720 just dive a bit deeper into what those alternatives could 1:04:31.760 --> 1:04:33.360 look like and what that could mean like for could 1:04:33.400 --> 1:04:34.120 mean for the future. 1:04:34.640 --> 1:04:37.520 Absolutely, and I describe in the book that probably the 1:04:37.600 --> 1:04:42.080 two most successful alternatives right now, I mean, if you're 1:04:42.120 --> 1:04:46.640 looking to go for a professional pathway career, would be 1:04:46.720 --> 1:04:52.360 apprenticeships and industry certifications. And the problem with these two 1:04:53.240 --> 1:04:56.800 wonderful alternatives to a four year degree is that they 1:04:56.840 --> 1:05:00.520 are not evenly available, Like you can find them in 1:05:00.560 --> 1:05:04.720 some cities and states and some professions, but not not widely. 1:05:05.080 --> 1:05:08.200 But they are being looked to as the models that 1:05:08.280 --> 1:05:10.360 we need to create, that we need to create more of, 1:05:10.560 --> 1:05:13.480 and either colleges can develop and offer them or you know, 1:05:13.560 --> 1:05:17.160 independent organizations. A lot of entrepreneurs have been you know, 1:05:17.160 --> 1:05:20.120 looking in these spaces too. But we have to we 1:05:20.240 --> 1:05:23.000 have to get off this idea that that that the 1:05:23.040 --> 1:05:27.080 government should only fund the degree programs for people who 1:05:27.080 --> 1:05:30.000 are going, you know, at least half time into a 1:05:30.040 --> 1:05:32.360 degree program. That's how the funding follows. 1:05:32.400 --> 1:05:32.480 You. 1:05:32.560 --> 1:05:35.400 Now, how disruptive do you think AI is going to be? 1:05:35.880 --> 1:05:39.360 That's a great question. There's already reports coming out that 1:05:39.400 --> 1:05:43.800 AI is starting to impinge on and shrink the number 1:05:43.880 --> 1:05:48.600 of entry level white collar jobs right because expertise that 1:05:48.960 --> 1:05:51.880 you can you know, use chat, GBT or other other 1:05:52.400 --> 1:05:55.600 options to to try to get answers to questions that 1:05:55.680 --> 1:05:58.640 may not be within your realm of expertise, those that 1:05:58.840 --> 1:06:03.640 it tends to why about an entry level white collar job? 1:06:03.760 --> 1:06:06.960 You know that doesn't that doesn't require a physical interaction, 1:06:07.720 --> 1:06:11.200 And so we're already seeing some of that new reports 1:06:11.240 --> 1:06:14.520 are coming out. But on the flip side, for a 1:06:15.480 --> 1:06:17.760 college student or a learner or a job app again 1:06:17.880 --> 1:06:21.120 there's also they're also able to use AI to to 1:06:22.120 --> 1:06:24.480 find out about more jobs, to help them write their 1:06:24.520 --> 1:06:29.600 resume to potentially uh learn learn the bits of expertise 1:06:29.640 --> 1:06:31.680 that they need to even you know, sound good in 1:06:31.720 --> 1:06:34.480 their job interview. So you know, it's a there's a 1:06:34.560 --> 1:06:37.080 there's a positive and negative side to AI from the 1:06:37.120 --> 1:06:40.520 standpoint of of of the future of work. But you know, 1:06:40.640 --> 1:06:43.360 probably the nature of jobs and the speed at which 1:06:43.360 --> 1:06:45.840 they'll change will continue to accelerate. 1:06:46.080 --> 1:06:48.160 I really want to just keep an eye on There's 1:06:48.400 --> 1:06:53.160 been this conversation about AI picking up plagiarism. What is 1:06:53.200 --> 1:06:55.680 your standpoint as a teacher as to how to actually 1:06:55.680 --> 1:06:58.479 figure out if students are plagiarizing using AI? But there's 1:06:58.480 --> 1:07:02.600 also been some situations where AI fossely to texts plagiarism 1:07:02.600 --> 1:07:04.600 from students. 1:07:03.680 --> 1:07:04.439 Falsely to text. 1:07:04.760 --> 1:07:06.479 I have heard a little bit, a little bit about 1:07:06.480 --> 1:07:09.800 that there are apps that that you know, usually most 1:07:10.000 --> 1:07:12.640 colleges and schools are you are you know where you 1:07:12.720 --> 1:07:16.240 can you know, run you run the kids papers through these, uh, 1:07:16.240 --> 1:07:19.800 these applications. Yes, I mean I think that's happening maybe 1:07:19.920 --> 1:07:20.480 a little bit. 1:07:20.560 --> 1:07:22.080 But I mean you can. 1:07:22.000 --> 1:07:26.920 Usually tell without the without the apps, uh, whether whether 1:07:26.960 --> 1:07:30.320 the students came up with the argument right not necessarily 1:07:30.480 --> 1:07:33.600 supporting facts. I mean I don't I don't hear my 1:07:33.680 --> 1:07:37.680 colleagues having much trouble in that regard. But but yeah, 1:07:37.720 --> 1:07:39.800 I mean you can you can go back to the 1:07:39.840 --> 1:07:43.800 student and use prompts prompts to figure that out. 1:07:43.920 --> 1:07:45.520 We have a lot of students who are sitting here, 1:07:45.520 --> 1:07:47.880 you know, everyone's looking at chat GPT. But it's also 1:07:47.920 --> 1:07:50.840 a really good tool for teachers and people in the 1:07:50.920 --> 1:07:54.720 education field to utilize AI to better uh you know, educate. 1:07:55.080 --> 1:07:57.920 What has been your take on AI and just what 1:07:57.960 --> 1:08:01.080 the implications can be from uh teaching perspective. 1:08:01.360 --> 1:08:03.840 Yeah, I teach at the college level at George Mason 1:08:03.960 --> 1:08:07.000 University here in Virginia, and I, you know, I've tried 1:08:07.040 --> 1:08:09.360 to It's interesting, we haven't been given a lot of 1:08:09.720 --> 1:08:12.560 you know, policies about how we're supposed to, uh, you know, 1:08:12.600 --> 1:08:15.040 whether whether we're supposed to allow students to use it 1:08:15.080 --> 1:08:17.519 to write their papers, for example, And so a lot 1:08:17.560 --> 1:08:18.840 of us are just kind of you know, we're just 1:08:18.920 --> 1:08:21.479 kind of forging into our own territory. 1:08:20.960 --> 1:08:21.960 And deciding how to use it. 1:08:22.000 --> 1:08:25.479 And I've I have been treating it as my friend 1:08:25.600 --> 1:08:30.200 right to say, to have students use it to basically 1:08:30.360 --> 1:08:33.040 like pressure test the ideas that we might come up 1:08:33.040 --> 1:08:36.200 with the in the classroom. I teach design thinking, and 1:08:36.280 --> 1:08:38.920 so I have the students use it to pressure test 1:08:38.960 --> 1:08:41.040 the ideas that we do live in the classroom. And 1:08:41.080 --> 1:08:44.160 then they're supposed to, you know, go and and see, well, 1:08:44.160 --> 1:08:45.640 you know what, what is what does the rest of 1:08:45.680 --> 1:08:48.519 the landscape say about this? About this point that that's 1:08:48.520 --> 1:08:51.400 one example, But it does mean that we can't really 1:08:51.439 --> 1:08:54.000 assign papers in the way that we used to. You know, 1:08:54.040 --> 1:08:56.680 we have to figure out how to projectize things that 1:08:56.760 --> 1:09:00.920 are that that create unique responses from the students or 1:09:00.920 --> 1:09:04.160 require unique responses from the students. And that's been that's 1:09:04.160 --> 1:09:06.920 been really difficult, but kind of exhilarating. 1:09:06.960 --> 1:09:08.000 Really Yeah. 1:09:08.040 --> 1:09:11.720 I mean I just I might be old or a 1:09:11.840 --> 1:09:14.320 lud Eite or I don't know. 1:09:14.800 --> 1:09:15.360 I don't know. 1:09:15.439 --> 1:09:20.000 I just I worry about what this does to critical thinking. 1:09:20.720 --> 1:09:23.040 I mean I remember when I was in college and 1:09:23.400 --> 1:09:24.960 I would be working on a paper and I would 1:09:25.000 --> 1:09:28.280 have some sort of breakthrough with the thesis, and it 1:09:28.320 --> 1:09:30.320 would have required me to sort of go through all 1:09:30.360 --> 1:09:32.479 the notes and really come to a conclusion and distill 1:09:32.520 --> 1:09:36.040 an argument, and I don't And I learned so much 1:09:36.080 --> 1:09:39.000 by doing that, and it required me exercising a part 1:09:39.040 --> 1:09:41.920 of my brain that I don't know would need to 1:09:41.960 --> 1:09:45.479 be exercised if I had chat GPT, right. 1:09:45.360 --> 1:09:47.080 I mean, it's the same. I mean, I'm old enough 1:09:47.080 --> 1:09:49.200 to remember when the calculator came out and we were 1:09:49.200 --> 1:09:51.840 worried about, you know that doing the math problem and 1:09:51.880 --> 1:09:54.240 if you're not doing yourself, like do you learn? Do 1:09:54.280 --> 1:09:56.400 you learn enough? And I think the you know, the 1:09:56.560 --> 1:09:59.599 argument now is okay the calculator, Like, yes, we don't 1:09:59.640 --> 1:10:03.240 have to know long division anymore, but you still, you know, 1:10:03.280 --> 1:10:05.160 so you have to use math in different you know, 1:10:05.200 --> 1:10:08.320 you have to learn it in different ways or learn 1:10:08.680 --> 1:10:11.280 the applied version of it. So what I try and 1:10:11.320 --> 1:10:15.000 do in my classroom is force those aha moments that 1:10:15.080 --> 1:10:17.680 you had writing your paper. I forced them in a 1:10:17.720 --> 1:10:21.160 live setting, in a you know where we're where, we're 1:10:21.200 --> 1:10:24.599 creatively problem solving together, and that that does help. I mean, 1:10:24.640 --> 1:10:26.679 it doesn't work for a history paper, but it works 1:10:26.720 --> 1:10:29.880 if you take the history lesson and try to apply 1:10:29.960 --> 1:10:32.360 it to a real world situation that you have your 1:10:32.360 --> 1:10:35.639 students work on together. Because they want, you know this today, 1:10:35.680 --> 1:10:38.760 they want they want school or college to be an 1:10:38.760 --> 1:10:42.960 engaging experience, not a you know, not if it's something 1:10:43.000 --> 1:10:46.120 they can read and learn or even write a paper about. 1:10:46.240 --> 1:10:47.880 They they want to be able to get that at 1:10:47.920 --> 1:10:50.639 the you know, drop of a hat. So learning has 1:10:50.680 --> 1:10:54.640 to become a whole lot more of an engagement practice 1:10:55.000 --> 1:10:59.240 experience for students to even care or stay engaged. That's 1:10:59.320 --> 1:11:02.160 what I'm seeing my classroom and many of my colleagues too. 1:11:02.840 --> 1:11:04.880 Kathleen, we got to get you back, We got to 1:11:04.880 --> 1:11:06.960 go everywhere with you at the end of our program, 1:11:06.960 --> 1:11:09.160 and we do really appreciate it. Kathleen Alaski, she's the 1:11:09.200 --> 1:11:10.679 founder of the Education Design Lab. 1:11:16.479 --> 1:11:20.280 This is the Bloomberg Business Week Podcast. Listen live each 1:11:20.280 --> 1:11:23.280 weekday starting at two pm Eastern on Apple car Play 1:11:23.360 --> 1:11:26.040 and the Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You 1:11:26.040 --> 1:11:29.240 can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 1:11:29.280 --> 1:11:33.080 New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 1:11:35.040 --> 1:11:35.200 Well. 1:11:35.200 --> 1:11:37.360 Our next guest is a self talkt cook who you 1:11:37.600 --> 1:11:40.720 may know from Instagram Shred Happens, where he has more 1:11:40.760 --> 1:11:44.000 than four million followers. It's there that he's documented his 1:11:44.120 --> 1:11:46.519 journey from being out of shape and unhealthy to losing 1:11:46.560 --> 1:11:49.240 over one hundred pounds, which he attributes to cooking and 1:11:49.280 --> 1:11:52.120 eating healthy foods. Now he's got a food company and 1:11:52.160 --> 1:11:55.839 a cookbook. Arashtashemi is a creator and the co founder 1:11:55.880 --> 1:11:58.720 of Kazan Food Company, which makes look hard about high 1:11:58.720 --> 1:12:02.200 protein rice and pasta Pasta pasta. It's like I'm from 1:12:02.280 --> 1:12:04.360 New Jersey or something, which I am. 1:12:04.400 --> 1:12:05.120 Pasta. 1:12:05.840 --> 1:12:07.920 Is also the author of the new cookbooks she read Happened, 1:12:07.960 --> 1:12:08.840 So Easy, So Goodie. 1:12:08.880 --> 1:12:12.280 Joins us here in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers Studio, A 1:12:12.320 --> 1:12:13.040 beautiful book. 1:12:13.240 --> 1:12:14.879 Did I say your food company correctly? 1:12:15.000 --> 1:12:15.320 Kaisen? 1:12:15.400 --> 1:12:18.599 Yeah, Kaisen? I had a feeling not how are you. 1:12:18.680 --> 1:12:19.600 I'm doing great. How are you? 1:12:19.800 --> 1:12:20.439 I'm good good. 1:12:21.360 --> 1:12:23.479 Everybody always has a journey, I feel like to get 1:12:23.479 --> 1:12:24.040 to something. 1:12:24.880 --> 1:12:26.920 This is your first cookbook, your first book. Tell us 1:12:26.920 --> 1:12:29.679 a little bit about the journey and how you did 1:12:29.720 --> 1:12:30.280 get to this. 1:12:30.880 --> 1:12:34.000 Yeah, well, I mean the story starts from a young age. 1:12:34.479 --> 1:12:38.240 My parents immigranted to this country. And you know, I 1:12:38.280 --> 1:12:42.360 was always focused on success, in chasing a better life 1:12:42.439 --> 1:12:45.760 and making them proud. And so the majority of my 1:12:45.800 --> 1:12:49.880 life I was really professionally driven, and I was doing really, 1:12:49.920 --> 1:12:52.639 really great in the corporate world. But in like twenty seventeen, 1:12:52.720 --> 1:12:54.360 I just kind of looked at my wife Madeline. I'd 1:12:54.360 --> 1:12:58.479 always struggled with my weight, and at one point I 1:12:58.520 --> 1:13:01.599 was over three hundred and thirty pounds. I was pre diabetic, 1:13:02.160 --> 1:13:05.120 I had high cholesterol triglystrides. 1:13:04.400 --> 1:13:06.280 And so you're the stay in radio. You're in like, 1:13:06.360 --> 1:13:08.160 you don't look like somebody who was three hundred pounds. 1:13:08.160 --> 1:13:09.480 Oh, thank you, but anyway. 1:13:09.200 --> 1:13:10.040 Go ahead, go ahead. 1:13:10.680 --> 1:13:13.000 Yeah, And so I knew I needed to do something 1:13:13.120 --> 1:13:15.479 to kind of change things up, otherwise this was going 1:13:15.520 --> 1:13:17.200 to get too late. And so I looked at my 1:13:17.200 --> 1:13:20.120 wife Madeline at the time, and we decided that, you know, 1:13:20.120 --> 1:13:22.120 it was going to leave my corporate career. It wasn't 1:13:22.160 --> 1:13:26.280 an easy transition, but we made certain sacrifices. We adjusted 1:13:26.280 --> 1:13:30.320 our lifestyle, and I set out to kind of change 1:13:30.320 --> 1:13:33.599 the direction of my life and refocus my relationship with food. 1:13:34.760 --> 1:13:38.280 How were you able to do it a rash, as 1:13:38.320 --> 1:13:43.519 Carol mentioned, everybody has different stories, but you did it 1:13:43.560 --> 1:13:49.360 through cooking yourself, through eating differently. We talk a lot 1:13:49.400 --> 1:13:52.240 about GLP ones on the program and the business opportunity 1:13:52.240 --> 1:13:54.280 there in the way people are using them, But how 1:13:54.320 --> 1:13:55.880 specifically were you able to do this? 1:13:56.520 --> 1:13:56.720 Yeah? 1:13:56.760 --> 1:13:59.240 Look, I think similar to many Americans, I was eating 1:13:59.240 --> 1:14:01.719 the wrong foods and the wrong quantities, and over time 1:14:01.760 --> 1:14:05.400 that just kind of, you know, I couldn't outrun that. 1:14:06.120 --> 1:14:09.320 I always had a gym membership, I had personal trainers, 1:14:09.360 --> 1:14:12.599 but you know, you can very quickly, you know, eat 1:14:12.640 --> 1:14:14.680 the five hundred calories that you're going to burn with 1:14:14.760 --> 1:14:17.000 an hour at the gym, and so for me, I 1:14:17.040 --> 1:14:20.320 really needed to shape focus on making foods that I 1:14:20.360 --> 1:14:23.200 was actually excited about eating. You know, I tried every 1:14:23.240 --> 1:14:26.040 single diet out there, from Weight Watchers, Jenny Craig, the 1:14:26.160 --> 1:14:27.680 Zone Atkins, you name it. 1:14:27.800 --> 1:14:29.840 I've tried them all, and you know, I. 1:14:29.760 --> 1:14:33.880 Think they're They're great for people, depending on whatever their 1:14:33.880 --> 1:14:37.120 circumstances are. For me, they felt a little bit more restrictive. 1:14:37.439 --> 1:14:38.840 I wasn't really excited about what. 1:14:38.840 --> 1:14:39.960 I don't want to count points. 1:14:40.840 --> 1:14:41.719 Hey, that could be useful. 1:14:41.760 --> 1:14:42.439 I'm not judging. 1:14:42.560 --> 1:14:43.320 I'm not judging. 1:14:43.400 --> 1:14:45.720 But and I did for a while, and actually it 1:14:45.760 --> 1:14:48.360 has worked for some people, right absolutely. And fun fact, 1:14:48.400 --> 1:14:50.160 I was on Weight Watchers for a number of years 1:14:50.200 --> 1:14:51.720 and I always remember, you know that there was a 1:14:51.800 --> 1:14:55.920 four pm weekly weigh ins and so starting Tuesday, I 1:14:55.960 --> 1:14:57.679 was always trying to figure out how do I game 1:14:57.720 --> 1:14:59.360 the system so I can actually you know, show a 1:14:59.360 --> 1:15:03.120 loss for the week. And so but look, I think 1:15:03.160 --> 1:15:05.240 for me it was really you know, all those diets. 1:15:05.280 --> 1:15:07.880 While they didn't work in many respects, they did work 1:15:07.920 --> 1:15:10.200 in the sense that they helped me understand what I needed. 1:15:10.200 --> 1:15:12.679 And for me was I love food and I wanted 1:15:12.680 --> 1:15:15.320 it to be an adventure. I wanted to be mentally 1:15:15.320 --> 1:15:17.799 stimulated as I was eating. I really enjoyed the process 1:15:17.840 --> 1:15:19.840 of food, and so you know, I had to figure 1:15:19.840 --> 1:15:21.360 out how to do that for myself. 1:15:22.720 --> 1:15:24.240 Well, yeah, I think. 1:15:24.120 --> 1:15:27.600 What's interesting too, is your book is so much like 1:15:27.720 --> 1:15:31.680 Mediterranean food. Yeah, And was that because that's what kind 1:15:31.680 --> 1:15:34.120 of got you to a healthier place, a better way, 1:15:34.840 --> 1:15:38.000 just a better kind of relationship and existence with food. 1:15:38.439 --> 1:15:38.599 Yeah. 1:15:38.640 --> 1:15:40.200 I think the big thing for me was, you know, 1:15:40.960 --> 1:15:43.520 I'm Persian and so we use a lot of spices 1:15:43.720 --> 1:15:46.599 in our in our home cooking and our and our culture, 1:15:46.640 --> 1:15:49.879 and so those played a huge part in adding flavor 1:15:50.000 --> 1:15:51.559 to the different types of meals that I was making 1:15:51.560 --> 1:15:54.280 for myself. You know, we use a lot of fresh 1:15:54.280 --> 1:15:56.800 herbs that had just a burst of flavor and every bite, 1:15:56.800 --> 1:16:00.800 you know, whether that's fresh mint, deal parsleygon and so 1:16:01.120 --> 1:16:03.200 you know, I started kind of experimenting with those things. 1:16:03.240 --> 1:16:05.160 And the great thing is they also don't have a 1:16:05.160 --> 1:16:07.679 lot of calories, and so you know, I was adding 1:16:07.720 --> 1:16:09.280 a ton of those to my meals. I was using 1:16:09.320 --> 1:16:12.120 a lot of citrus, and I was able to get 1:16:12.160 --> 1:16:14.679 a lot of flavor out of those very simple changes, 1:16:15.040 --> 1:16:16.920 and that got me excited about eating. It was more 1:16:16.920 --> 1:16:20.360 calorically friendly, and you know kind of started from there. 1:16:21.160 --> 1:16:26.680 Did you have to be really precise about measuring out ingredients, 1:16:27.240 --> 1:16:32.559 counting calories and really or could you be more could 1:16:32.560 --> 1:16:33.240 you be less formal? 1:16:33.240 --> 1:16:34.920 About it. Could you be more relaxed about it? 1:16:35.080 --> 1:16:37.320 I am much more relaxed now, But at the beginning, yeah, 1:16:37.360 --> 1:16:40.080 I absolutely had to take inventory of what I was eating. 1:16:40.120 --> 1:16:41.519 And one of the first things that I did was 1:16:41.560 --> 1:16:44.560 actually I started just documenting what I was eating, just 1:16:44.920 --> 1:16:47.759 on a sheet of paper at the time, because I 1:16:47.800 --> 1:16:49.920 didn't really realize how many times throughout the day I 1:16:49.960 --> 1:16:52.559 was actually reaching for something. And for me, those little nibbles, 1:16:52.960 --> 1:16:56.760 those little bites, licks, the snacking really caught up to me, 1:16:56.840 --> 1:16:59.360 and that was really an opportunity in of itself for me. 1:17:00.120 --> 1:17:02.120 I was cutting out about five hundred calories a day 1:17:02.240 --> 1:17:04.200 just by kind of monitoring that or if I knew 1:17:04.200 --> 1:17:06.559 that I had to actually, you know, write something down, 1:17:06.640 --> 1:17:08.280 it gave me a second to kind of just pause 1:17:08.640 --> 1:17:10.280 and question, do I really want to be. 1:17:10.280 --> 1:17:12.240 Eating this right now? Is this the right choice? 1:17:12.320 --> 1:17:14.639 And that helped me be much more mindful because before 1:17:14.680 --> 1:17:17.120 that I was just eating without really any sort of 1:17:18.800 --> 1:17:22.120 you know, concern for the ramifications or the consequences. 1:17:22.680 --> 1:17:26.120 How does physical activity play a part in your journey? 1:17:27.040 --> 1:17:27.960 For me, it's played a role. 1:17:28.080 --> 1:17:31.200 I'd say the bigger thing for me has been changing 1:17:31.200 --> 1:17:34.320 the dynamic with food and eating foods that keep me satiated, 1:17:34.400 --> 1:17:38.640 keep me full, deliver a ton of protein with the 1:17:38.680 --> 1:17:40.800 right levels of fiber to kind of keep me going 1:17:40.840 --> 1:17:43.720 throughout the day. One of the biggest, bigger things that 1:17:43.760 --> 1:17:45.240 I set out to do at the beginning of my 1:17:46.320 --> 1:17:48.400 journey was, you know, I didn't really know how to 1:17:48.439 --> 1:17:51.080 swim or run really a mile. But you know, I said, hey, 1:17:51.120 --> 1:17:53.639 I'm going to do a half iron Man and train 1:17:53.720 --> 1:17:56.559 for a triathlon, and so you know, that was an 1:17:56.600 --> 1:18:00.640 interesting process, and so I actually ran in two half marathons. 1:18:00.640 --> 1:18:04.479 I completed one I ran and two half marathons, completed 1:18:04.680 --> 1:18:07.600 two half triathlons or half ironman's, and then did a 1:18:07.640 --> 1:18:10.760 full marathon as well. But for me, the bigger opportunity 1:18:10.800 --> 1:18:13.320 was really around food because you know, as they say, 1:18:13.360 --> 1:18:15.960 you know, you really can't outrun a bad diet. 1:18:16.000 --> 1:18:18.000 And that's where I really struggled previously. 1:18:18.160 --> 1:18:20.000 How did you think about I mean, I think there 1:18:20.160 --> 1:18:22.479 are a ton of cookbooks out there, as you know, 1:18:22.800 --> 1:18:26.120 but how do you like the balance of creating something 1:18:26.160 --> 1:18:32.280 that's really tasty and appetizing and kind of attractive looking, 1:18:32.840 --> 1:18:34.960 and then but not making it so complicated that people 1:18:35.040 --> 1:18:37.400 like forget this you know, let me just order in. 1:18:37.680 --> 1:18:39.160 So, like, how did you think about it when you 1:18:39.160 --> 1:18:39.960 put this book together? 1:18:40.320 --> 1:18:43.280 Yeah, I think for me the biggest thing again was I, 1:18:43.360 --> 1:18:45.120 you know, through all the diets that I had done, 1:18:45.360 --> 1:18:47.120 you know, they were either boring and so I knew 1:18:47.120 --> 1:18:49.840 I didn't want to do the typical you know, brown rice, 1:18:49.920 --> 1:18:52.880 boiled chicken and broccoli, because I always that led to 1:18:52.920 --> 1:18:55.920 me kind of falling off because I was always chasing excitement. Yeah, 1:18:55.960 --> 1:18:58.400 and so for me, the biggest thing was finding ways 1:18:58.439 --> 1:19:02.920 to incorporate flavor in simple ways to doing you know, 1:19:02.960 --> 1:19:04.720 to what I'm eating in order to be able to 1:19:04.880 --> 1:19:07.760 kind of be excited about it, be mentally stimulated and 1:19:07.800 --> 1:19:10.240 look forward to eating. And so you know, I achieved 1:19:10.240 --> 1:19:12.439 that through the spices, through the herbs. I also have 1:19:12.439 --> 1:19:14.880 a full chapter of sauces, because that's really what helps 1:19:14.880 --> 1:19:17.960 elevate really any dish. And so as long as you've 1:19:18.000 --> 1:19:21.160 got different flavors and textures going on in colors in 1:19:21.200 --> 1:19:22.920 your meal, because we also eat with our eyes and 1:19:23.000 --> 1:19:25.120 so for me, the biggest thing was taking time to 1:19:25.160 --> 1:19:27.960 really plate things instead of just standing up putting something 1:19:27.960 --> 1:19:30.200 together and eating at the kitchen counter. For me, actually 1:19:30.280 --> 1:19:32.559 taking the time to plate it up in a beautiful 1:19:32.560 --> 1:19:34.000 way really made a difference. 1:19:34.080 --> 1:19:34.240 Rush. 1:19:34.280 --> 1:19:35.599 I just have to tell you if Tim was here 1:19:35.600 --> 1:19:38.320 in studio, this is when he usually breaks out of sandwich, right, 1:19:38.400 --> 1:19:40.160 or it would have been what it would have been, 1:19:40.200 --> 1:19:41.440 probably the break beforehand. 1:19:41.520 --> 1:19:44.040 Tim, Yeah, I got don't worry, I got my banana 1:19:44.040 --> 1:19:44.759 and my carrots. 1:19:44.880 --> 1:19:46.439 All right. 1:19:46.720 --> 1:19:49.240 It's usually though a full on sandwich. 1:19:49.320 --> 1:19:53.320 But anyway, I would Hey, I do want to ask you. 1:19:53.479 --> 1:19:57.240 I'm getting an urgent email from a colleague, Emily Grafeo. 1:19:57.360 --> 1:20:00.280 She anchored with me yesterday when Carol was out. I'm 1:20:00.320 --> 1:20:04.240 so jealous. I misshred happens by one day. OMG. I 1:20:04.320 --> 1:20:07.160 like his content a lot. I've made his recipes. Oh 1:20:07.160 --> 1:20:10.479 that's amazing. Raises it raises the question though about this. 1:20:11.040 --> 1:20:12.880 It's not a side hustle for you anymore. This is 1:20:12.920 --> 1:20:14.560 this is what you're doing now. Yeah, it was a 1:20:14.720 --> 1:20:17.920 more send you an accounting So you said you scaled 1:20:17.960 --> 1:20:21.360 back on your lifestyle back in twenty seventeen as a 1:20:21.360 --> 1:20:24.880 result of your health. You made some adjustments to your lifestyle. 1:20:25.360 --> 1:20:28.280 Have you been able to offset and more the salary 1:20:28.320 --> 1:20:30.120 you earned in the corporate world by doing what you're 1:20:30.120 --> 1:20:30.759 doing now. 1:20:31.200 --> 1:20:33.439 Yeah, I have, and I think, look in the corporate world, 1:20:33.520 --> 1:20:35.760 obviously it's a salary. You don't have overhead, you don't 1:20:35.760 --> 1:20:39.200 have expenses, you're not investing for the future. So you know, 1:20:39.200 --> 1:20:41.360 it took me a while. When I initially set out, 1:20:41.920 --> 1:20:44.200 I was begging companies to send me, you know, a 1:20:44.200 --> 1:20:47.719 free jar of peanut butter and if any of them wooded. 1:20:48.960 --> 1:20:51.320 And you know, it took me almost two three years 1:20:51.320 --> 1:20:54.360 to monetize on the content that it was making. You know, 1:20:54.400 --> 1:20:56.439 and I was in corporate finance before, at a pretty 1:20:56.479 --> 1:20:59.000 large company GE at the time, and so you know, 1:20:59.040 --> 1:21:01.719 when I left, it was aizable gap in our income. 1:21:02.080 --> 1:21:03.960 We put our house on the market, I started renting 1:21:03.960 --> 1:21:07.160 my car out on Touro and app. I started selling 1:21:07.160 --> 1:21:09.519 and flipping things on eBay. So I was trying to 1:21:09.520 --> 1:21:11.240 figure out how to make it work for me. At 1:21:11.280 --> 1:21:13.400 the beginning, it wasn't really about making money. It was 1:21:13.400 --> 1:21:15.200 really about changing my life. 1:21:15.720 --> 1:21:16.800 And a few. 1:21:16.760 --> 1:21:20.679 Years in I was able to completely offset the income 1:21:20.720 --> 1:21:23.200 that I was making. But with my corporate job. Now 1:21:23.640 --> 1:21:25.960 I did create a high protein, low car pasta and 1:21:26.040 --> 1:21:29.200 rice company, Kaisen, and so to develop that, you know, 1:21:29.240 --> 1:21:32.000 that required a lot of capital and so at some 1:21:32.040 --> 1:21:33.599 point I did have to go back to the corporate 1:21:33.600 --> 1:21:35.599 world to kind of fund the R and D of that. 1:21:36.439 --> 1:21:39.040 But yeah, it was tough. But now we've I've been 1:21:39.080 --> 1:21:40.160 able to completely offset it. 1:21:40.280 --> 1:21:41.240 Just got about thirty seconds. 1:21:41.240 --> 1:21:44.320 So what's your focus to build that, Kaisen or what's 1:21:44.320 --> 1:21:45.000 your next step? 1:21:45.240 --> 1:21:45.400 Yeah? 1:21:45.439 --> 1:21:47.559 I think, you know, continue to share content. You know, 1:21:47.600 --> 1:21:50.400 nothing makes me prouder than seeing families around the world 1:21:50.560 --> 1:21:53.240 enjoying my meals and make my recipes. And with Kaisen, 1:21:53.280 --> 1:21:55.759 we're able to deliver people high protein, low car pasta. 1:21:55.800 --> 1:21:57.480 So we're going to continue on that trend. 1:21:57.200 --> 1:22:00.120 And hopefully allow people to eat a healthier version of 1:22:00.120 --> 1:22:02.720 their favorite meal without the calories, without the carbs, with 1:22:02.960 --> 1:22:03.719 much more protein. 1:22:03.800 --> 1:22:05.360 I'm starving. If you're cooking for Timm and me, what 1:22:05.400 --> 1:22:06.080 would you cook tonight? 1:22:06.439 --> 1:22:08.160 Chris chicken and rice bull? No question? 1:22:08.840 --> 1:22:10.960 All right, deal, deal, deal, We get dessert too. 1:22:11.200 --> 1:22:16.160 I'll see you whipped Greek whet, whipped Greek yogurt and berries. 1:22:16.160 --> 1:22:16.799 Its delicious. 1:22:16.800 --> 1:22:19.960 Oh my god, I'm starving. Good luck, stay in touch, 1:22:20.080 --> 1:22:21.160 love to hear how things are going. 1:22:21.720 --> 1:22:24.759 Versa shemy creator and co founder of Cousin Food Company, 1:22:24.800 --> 1:22:27.919 and of course his new book, Shred Happens, So Easy, 1:22:28.160 --> 1:22:31.200 So Good, one hundred plus protein pac Mediterranean favorites. 1:22:30.880 --> 1:22:31.920 With a low carved twist. 1:22:31.960 --> 1:22:32.519 Good luckies. 1:22:32.760 --> 1:22:35.080 All right, you're listening and watching Bloomberg BusinessWeek. 1:22:35.160 --> 1:22:35.839 This is Bloomberg. 1:22:39.520 --> 1:22:44.400 This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, 1:22:44.479 --> 1:22:48.240 and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live weekday 1:22:48.240 --> 1:22:52.280 afternoons from two to five pm Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, 1:22:52.320 --> 1:22:56.200 the iHeartRadio app tune In, and the Bloomberg Business App. 1:22:56.439 --> 1:22:59.360 You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube 1:22:59.439 --> 1:23:01.559 and always on the Bloomberg terminal 1:23:09.200 --> 1:23:09.519 MHM