1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:06,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 3 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:18,680 Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day 4 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 5 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:24,920 Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 6 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 7 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or 8 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 9 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:37,800 Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business App. John Stoffers of Oppenheimer 10 00:00:37,840 --> 00:00:41,639 Speaker 2: saying this resilience is what's likely underpinning the economy's trajectory 11 00:00:41,680 --> 00:00:45,360 Speaker 2: towards normalization. We believe the US economy is likely mid 12 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:49,360 Speaker 2: cycle rather than late cycle as some suggest. Jonas with 13 00:00:49,440 --> 00:00:52,280 Speaker 2: us for more, Juhnk and Monits Sir, Good morning, another 14 00:00:52,400 --> 00:00:54,280 Speaker 2: all time home in the equity market. And I just 15 00:00:54,280 --> 00:00:56,520 Speaker 2: want to frame your views coming into twenty four because 16 00:00:56,520 --> 00:00:58,800 Speaker 2: I think it's important to sing your praises because you 17 00:00:58,840 --> 00:01:00,880 Speaker 2: are a modest man and won't do it yourself. You 18 00:01:00,920 --> 00:01:03,240 Speaker 2: came into this year and you said, I'm constructive risk, 19 00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:05,440 Speaker 2: I'm long the equity market, but it's not dependent on 20 00:01:05,480 --> 00:01:07,800 Speaker 2: this federal SEV kind of interest rates. I don't think 21 00:01:07,800 --> 00:01:11,080 Speaker 2: they will anytime soon. What did you see there was 22 00:01:11,120 --> 00:01:13,440 Speaker 2: like your guiding light around the story so far this year. 23 00:01:14,240 --> 00:01:16,280 Speaker 1: I think what it really was when we look back 24 00:01:16,319 --> 00:01:20,039 Speaker 1: at it, John, is the thought that Jerome Powell does 25 00:01:20,080 --> 00:01:25,120 Speaker 1: not want to be remembered for blowing it on inflation 26 00:01:25,360 --> 00:01:29,680 Speaker 1: and letting inflation come back in after cutting. And I 27 00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:33,120 Speaker 1: think the FED mostly feels that way when you hear 28 00:01:33,160 --> 00:01:37,120 Speaker 1: the differences and the FED speak the mix were some 29 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:41,399 Speaker 1: not expecting any cuts, others expecting one two, whatever it be. 30 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:45,720 Speaker 1: Those of us who lived through the seventies inflation never 31 00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:49,360 Speaker 1: forgot it and the failure of Arthur Burns and what 32 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:54,640 Speaker 1: necessitated draconian measures by Paul Volker then and then a 33 00:01:54,720 --> 00:01:59,600 Speaker 1: fifteen year period as I recall of Alan green Span 34 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:02,800 Speaker 1: and the Science Project, learning what the modern FED would 35 00:02:02,840 --> 00:02:05,520 Speaker 1: be like in terms of where rates would go. I 36 00:02:05,600 --> 00:02:10,760 Speaker 1: think that memory is very much in a Jerome Powell's mind. 37 00:02:11,200 --> 00:02:13,560 Speaker 2: Calling what the FED would do is tough, calling how 38 00:02:13,600 --> 00:02:16,239 Speaker 2: the market will respond to it, sometimes even harder. You 39 00:02:16,320 --> 00:02:18,840 Speaker 2: got step one rate, you got step two right as well. 40 00:02:18,960 --> 00:02:21,800 Speaker 2: Let's talk about step two. Why did you believe that 41 00:02:21,840 --> 00:02:24,280 Speaker 2: wouldn't be negative for equity markets. 42 00:02:24,440 --> 00:02:30,079 Speaker 1: Well, I very much remember when the tenure was around 43 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:35,040 Speaker 1: nine percent, and I remember a FED Funds rate that 44 00:02:35,160 --> 00:02:39,480 Speaker 1: was significantly higher, and I remember equities moving up. It 45 00:02:39,520 --> 00:02:42,320 Speaker 1: was after I came into the market in nineteen eighty three, 46 00:02:42,440 --> 00:02:46,760 Speaker 1: so that was Volker's second term. I might have made 47 00:02:46,760 --> 00:02:49,680 Speaker 1: a mistake maybe that the Fed funds rate was nine percent. 48 00:02:49,720 --> 00:02:52,919 Speaker 1: I don't quite recall. It's published in our pieces every week, 49 00:02:52,960 --> 00:02:55,840 Speaker 1: but I can't remember everything. But what I will say 50 00:02:56,400 --> 00:03:00,600 Speaker 1: is this is it depends if business can still grow revenues, 51 00:03:01,120 --> 00:03:04,280 Speaker 1: if they can still grow earnings, and if there's enough 52 00:03:04,320 --> 00:03:09,040 Speaker 1: innovation around things are changing for the positive. Business people 53 00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:11,280 Speaker 1: will move on that and the market will get a 54 00:03:11,320 --> 00:03:15,120 Speaker 1: sense as a discout mechanism that stocks can move higher. 55 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:18,560 Speaker 1: I remember speaking with clients when they were enamored by 56 00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:23,240 Speaker 1: twelve percent coupons on fixed income and I was pitching equities. Okay, 57 00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:26,680 Speaker 1: for diversification purposes, we could have a little bit of both, 58 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:30,360 Speaker 1: but it was the equities were just screaming out that 59 00:03:30,400 --> 00:03:34,040 Speaker 1: they were undervalued relative to where we were headed. 60 00:03:34,480 --> 00:03:36,320 Speaker 3: Are they still screaming that out? I mean we're pretty 61 00:03:36,320 --> 00:03:37,480 Speaker 3: close to your year end target. 62 00:03:38,000 --> 00:03:40,520 Speaker 1: I don't think they're quite screaming it out. I think 63 00:03:41,040 --> 00:03:45,440 Speaker 1: equities are closer near term to being fully valued. But 64 00:03:45,600 --> 00:03:48,320 Speaker 1: I think that our fifty five hundred target is likely 65 00:03:48,360 --> 00:03:51,240 Speaker 1: to be exceeded, probably in the next few days, if 66 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:53,480 Speaker 1: we don't get some catalyst for the bears to move 67 00:03:53,520 --> 00:03:56,800 Speaker 1: in and take us down five or six percent, as 68 00:03:56,840 --> 00:03:58,440 Speaker 1: they've done so frequently this year. 69 00:03:58,640 --> 00:04:01,520 Speaker 3: Some people have argued that this is fragile rally. This 70 00:04:01,640 --> 00:04:03,680 Speaker 3: is the twenty eighth record high as of yesterday, we're 71 00:04:03,680 --> 00:04:07,480 Speaker 3: still counting. But it wasn't led by small caps. It 72 00:04:07,520 --> 00:04:10,040 Speaker 3: wasn't led by sort of a broadening out at all. 73 00:04:10,080 --> 00:04:12,200 Speaker 3: It was led by big tech. In particular, it was 74 00:04:12,280 --> 00:04:16,760 Speaker 3: led by Nvidia, by Apple, which became the most valuable 75 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:20,920 Speaker 3: US company out there, surpassing Microsoft once more. So, do 76 00:04:20,960 --> 00:04:24,440 Speaker 3: you view this as potentially a negative sign that equal 77 00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:28,480 Speaker 3: weight just keeps underperforming even though the tailwind ostensibly was 78 00:04:28,520 --> 00:04:29,760 Speaker 3: the potential for eight cuts. 79 00:04:29,920 --> 00:04:32,400 Speaker 1: Well, I got to say, the thing about the big 80 00:04:32,440 --> 00:04:36,240 Speaker 1: tech companies is that they're profitable, they've got a positive 81 00:04:36,279 --> 00:04:39,640 Speaker 1: cash flow, and they're deeply embedded in our lives. Oppen 82 00:04:39,680 --> 00:04:42,960 Speaker 1: Hybrid doesn't allow me to talk about individual companies because 83 00:04:43,000 --> 00:04:45,400 Speaker 1: I manage money. But I can say, well, I can 84 00:04:45,400 --> 00:04:51,640 Speaker 1: say sure, AI chips are essential to where we're headed, 85 00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:55,360 Speaker 1: and businesses are looking to invest in AI because they 86 00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:58,000 Speaker 1: want to remain competitive, they want to be more efficient, 87 00:04:58,400 --> 00:05:01,520 Speaker 1: and they want to be able to navigate tougher environments. 88 00:05:01,560 --> 00:05:05,839 Speaker 1: If anything, today, people of the last fifteen sixteen years 89 00:05:05,920 --> 00:05:07,640 Speaker 1: have been some of the toughest times. You have the 90 00:05:07,680 --> 00:05:11,520 Speaker 1: Great Financial Crisis, the pandemic, the whole mess with the 91 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:15,279 Speaker 1: global supply chain, a move towards diversifying away from one 92 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:19,560 Speaker 1: country's centricity, dependency on the global supply chain, all this stuff, 93 00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:24,440 Speaker 1: and it requires advanced logistics, all kinds of technology to 94 00:05:24,600 --> 00:05:27,640 Speaker 1: navigate this. So you know the other side of it is. 95 00:05:27,680 --> 00:05:29,800 Speaker 1: But I can say there's one company that we all 96 00:05:29,839 --> 00:05:32,000 Speaker 1: know very well. If we brought out our cell phones, 97 00:05:32,040 --> 00:05:35,080 Speaker 1: probably all the cell phones would be by that company. 98 00:05:35,320 --> 00:05:37,760 Speaker 1: What did they do? They set it up So if 99 00:05:37,760 --> 00:05:40,839 Speaker 1: you want the latest in AI, you have, if you 100 00:05:40,880 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 1: don't have the phone that came out this year, the 101 00:05:44,800 --> 00:05:48,400 Speaker 1: phone you got to. We're all tied to an upgrade cycle, 102 00:05:48,520 --> 00:05:52,679 Speaker 1: whether we like it or not. Irregardless of what who's 103 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:56,680 Speaker 1: supplying our technology, and that makes tech very important, and 104 00:05:56,720 --> 00:06:00,560 Speaker 1: not in an artificial sense, because it's both business and 105 00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:03,240 Speaker 1: and the consumer find it deeply embedded in their lives. 106 00:06:03,360 --> 00:06:05,640 Speaker 2: So you're bullish Jensen and bullish Tim. I'll say that 107 00:06:05,720 --> 00:06:09,040 Speaker 2: for you. Your overall constructive on the sancuity market. Now 108 00:06:09,040 --> 00:06:11,520 Speaker 2: I understand why it's Fairny convincing. We had an upside 109 00:06:11,520 --> 00:06:14,479 Speaker 2: surprise on payrolls, we had a downside surprise on CEPI, 110 00:06:14,520 --> 00:06:16,320 Speaker 2: and effed wanting to cut interest rates at a first 111 00:06:16,360 --> 00:06:19,440 Speaker 2: sign of weakness sounds pretty constructive. My favorite question for 112 00:06:19,480 --> 00:06:22,240 Speaker 2: you what would change your mind? What would you need 113 00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:23,960 Speaker 2: to see that would lead you to come on this 114 00:06:24,000 --> 00:06:26,560 Speaker 2: program and say, jump, change my mind. Don't see it 115 00:06:26,560 --> 00:06:28,080 Speaker 2: the same way, trim some risk. 116 00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:32,200 Speaker 1: It's what Barton Biggs would have called the bolt from 117 00:06:32,200 --> 00:06:34,880 Speaker 1: the blue, the sock to the jaw, you know, the 118 00:06:36,400 --> 00:06:41,000 Speaker 1: unexpected problem that emerges that would cause people, like in 119 00:06:41,080 --> 00:06:45,480 Speaker 1: twenty two when everybody just projecting negatively overnight, not us, 120 00:06:46,240 --> 00:06:51,040 Speaker 1: but it was it's that good sour sentiment near term 121 00:06:51,160 --> 00:06:54,880 Speaker 1: or something really dramatically awful. But otherwise where we're headed 122 00:06:55,400 --> 00:06:58,720 Speaker 1: just looks like there are more positives to offset the 123 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:00,920 Speaker 1: challenges and the gatives that appear. 124 00:07:01,960 --> 00:07:04,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, well we're not even halfway through the year and 125 00:07:04,400 --> 00:07:07,000 Speaker 3: we're you know, basically a stone's throw from your year 126 00:07:07,080 --> 00:07:10,760 Speaker 3: end target. So, barring some sort of cataclysmic event, how 127 00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:12,520 Speaker 3: close are you upgrading your year end target? 128 00:07:12,880 --> 00:07:16,600 Speaker 1: I would say very close. But it's our discipline happens 129 00:07:16,640 --> 00:07:19,640 Speaker 1: to be that unless the S and P closes at 130 00:07:19,760 --> 00:07:23,280 Speaker 1: or above our target, we don't raise it because we 131 00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:25,680 Speaker 1: don't want to jerk the clients around. You know, there's 132 00:07:26,400 --> 00:07:29,680 Speaker 1: a lot of people will just oh, they'll upgrade and downgrade, 133 00:07:29,720 --> 00:07:33,280 Speaker 1: and they'll give two different targets and everything. We're pretty 134 00:07:33,280 --> 00:07:36,720 Speaker 1: disciplined on our targets and fortunate that we've been. We've 135 00:07:36,760 --> 00:07:39,280 Speaker 1: been fairly successful with them over the years. 136 00:07:39,360 --> 00:07:41,720 Speaker 2: You stay disciplined. Johnny's great to see you. I think 137 00:07:41,720 --> 00:07:43,520 Speaker 2: you've had a fantastic yess. I find you've been working 138 00:07:43,640 --> 00:07:44,760 Speaker 2: very hard. We appreciate it. 139 00:07:45,040 --> 00:07:47,720 Speaker 1: Knocking on whatever this substance, at least it's. 140 00:07:47,560 --> 00:07:49,360 Speaker 4: A little bit of wooded knocking. 141 00:07:49,440 --> 00:07:53,800 Speaker 2: Only the risk John stuff is uppenheim it, John, thank you. 142 00:08:01,960 --> 00:08:06,160 Speaker 2: Let's introduced Savantra Champrass Sockgen alongside Jonathan Pinko of UPS. 143 00:08:06,240 --> 00:08:09,240 Speaker 2: So we have team no cuts in twenty four alongside 144 00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:11,080 Speaker 2: Team December app because we had a change over at 145 00:08:11,120 --> 00:08:13,760 Speaker 2: UPS just yesterday when it come to sockgen first, Avantra, 146 00:08:13,920 --> 00:08:16,240 Speaker 2: let's talk about this data. What does this data ta you? 147 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:17,760 Speaker 2: And put it together with what you heard from the 148 00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:20,200 Speaker 2: Federal Reserve chairman yesterday and sort of square that circle 149 00:08:20,240 --> 00:08:20,640 Speaker 2: for us. 150 00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:23,960 Speaker 5: This is of course one data point. The fact that 151 00:08:23,960 --> 00:08:27,360 Speaker 5: the claims number went up is something to keep an 152 00:08:27,440 --> 00:08:29,880 Speaker 5: eye on because typically when you tend to see a 153 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:35,400 Speaker 5: deterioration in the employment picture, you tend to see that 154 00:08:35,559 --> 00:08:37,319 Speaker 5: led by initial jobless claims. It tends to be a 155 00:08:37,360 --> 00:08:40,480 Speaker 5: leading indicator. But that's it again, one data point doesn't 156 00:08:40,520 --> 00:08:42,920 Speaker 5: make a trend. We'll be looking to see what happens. 157 00:08:42,960 --> 00:08:46,199 Speaker 5: What was interesting to me in yesterday summary of economic 158 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:48,480 Speaker 5: projections is the fact that the Fed kept core PCE 159 00:08:48,760 --> 00:08:51,360 Speaker 5: at two point eight percent for this year, so they're 160 00:08:51,400 --> 00:08:54,160 Speaker 5: expecting about roughly point two increases a month or a 161 00:08:54,200 --> 00:08:56,800 Speaker 5: month for the remainder of the year in core pc. 162 00:08:56,880 --> 00:08:59,600 Speaker 5: So in that sort of context where inflation is still 163 00:08:59,720 --> 00:09:03,160 Speaker 5: ralph to the sticky and the job market is quite strong, 164 00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:05,240 Speaker 5: and growth is in the context of two to two 165 00:09:05,240 --> 00:09:07,640 Speaker 5: and a half percent. I don't see any need for 166 00:09:07,679 --> 00:09:09,360 Speaker 5: the Fed to Russian to cut rates. 167 00:09:09,360 --> 00:09:11,440 Speaker 2: So want a company your inflation outlook with their outlook 168 00:09:11,440 --> 00:09:14,040 Speaker 2: for unemployment, they see it stank exactly where it is 169 00:09:14,360 --> 00:09:17,720 Speaker 2: right now, four percent year end twenty twenty four. Jonathan, 170 00:09:17,760 --> 00:09:20,320 Speaker 2: how are you thinking about the incoming information snaked up 171 00:09:20,320 --> 00:09:22,840 Speaker 2: against what they're predicting projecting for the rest of this year. 172 00:09:23,480 --> 00:09:26,520 Speaker 6: Well, that was actually a big reason we went from 173 00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:29,640 Speaker 6: team September to team December. I mean, we were actually 174 00:09:29,679 --> 00:09:33,120 Speaker 6: forecasting an increase in initial jobless claims today to two 175 00:09:33,160 --> 00:09:36,920 Speaker 6: thirty five. We were expecting an increase in continuing claims, 176 00:09:36,920 --> 00:09:39,520 Speaker 6: and we were expecting a downside surprise and PPI, and 177 00:09:39,520 --> 00:09:41,280 Speaker 6: we were actually one of the few shops expecting a 178 00:09:41,320 --> 00:09:46,000 Speaker 6: point two on core CPI yesterday. We've been watching the 179 00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:48,680 Speaker 6: data slow and think there's a slowdown underway. But we 180 00:09:48,760 --> 00:09:53,000 Speaker 6: got an FOMC that really just seems to think growths fine, 181 00:09:53,120 --> 00:09:54,880 Speaker 6: and not just fine, but great. I mean they didn't 182 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:58,280 Speaker 6: even mark down their assessments of the pace of the 183 00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:01,360 Speaker 6: expansion in the first paragraph of their statement, which is 184 00:10:01,400 --> 00:10:06,319 Speaker 6: typically where an FOMC would acknowledge some moderation. But they 185 00:10:06,320 --> 00:10:09,240 Speaker 6: seem extremely comfortable with the current stance of policy. They 186 00:10:09,280 --> 00:10:11,760 Speaker 6: feel like, you know, the labor market is still healthy. 187 00:10:12,080 --> 00:10:13,920 Speaker 6: I mean, I will agree that is one place where 188 00:10:13,960 --> 00:10:16,440 Speaker 6: if it does roll over rather quickly, they might respond. 189 00:10:17,160 --> 00:10:19,600 Speaker 6: But it really looked to us like an FOMC that 190 00:10:19,880 --> 00:10:24,439 Speaker 6: seems very comfortable waiting and without a lot of urgency 191 00:10:24,520 --> 00:10:26,080 Speaker 6: you start dialing back restrictiveness. 192 00:10:26,160 --> 00:10:28,640 Speaker 3: Sevadra is sitting here thinking, all right, everybody just keep 193 00:10:28,679 --> 00:10:30,280 Speaker 3: coming to my way, because I've been saying this for 194 00:10:30,400 --> 00:10:31,839 Speaker 3: quite a while or no, no cuts it. 195 00:10:31,800 --> 00:10:33,079 Speaker 2: All this year? 196 00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:36,000 Speaker 3: Are we asking the wrong question? Are basically asking what 197 00:10:36,080 --> 00:10:37,680 Speaker 3: are they going to start the rate cutting cycle, and 198 00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:39,360 Speaker 3: not what the rate cutting cycle is going to look 199 00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:41,959 Speaker 3: like if they wait longer. In other words, if they 200 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:44,200 Speaker 3: do not cut this year, Sevadra, are they going to 201 00:10:44,200 --> 00:10:46,640 Speaker 3: have to cut much more deeply next year in the 202 00:10:46,640 --> 00:10:48,719 Speaker 3: face of that weakness that Jonathan was talking about and 203 00:10:48,760 --> 00:10:49,920 Speaker 3: a lot of people are projecting. 204 00:10:50,559 --> 00:10:52,800 Speaker 5: I think I would prefer that then being in the 205 00:10:52,800 --> 00:10:55,959 Speaker 5: situation that the ECB is and where they've said the 206 00:10:56,640 --> 00:10:59,679 Speaker 5: cut rates, and then now it's uncertain if they're going 207 00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:02,559 Speaker 5: to cut in July, it doesn't look likely that they're cutting. 208 00:11:03,040 --> 00:11:05,800 Speaker 5: They might cut in September. But then after that they're 209 00:11:05,800 --> 00:11:08,640 Speaker 5: looking at unit labor costs going up, They're looking at 210 00:11:08,679 --> 00:11:11,360 Speaker 5: other factors that's going to keep them on hold. I 211 00:11:11,440 --> 00:11:14,079 Speaker 5: just I don't see the need for the FED to cut. 212 00:11:14,200 --> 00:11:17,400 Speaker 5: I don't see the need for any sort of insurance cuts. 213 00:11:17,800 --> 00:11:19,800 Speaker 5: Why should they cut and then wait for six months 214 00:11:19,800 --> 00:11:21,760 Speaker 5: to deliver the next cut. Why not just wait for 215 00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:24,560 Speaker 5: the data to corroborate the need for cuts and then 216 00:11:24,600 --> 00:11:26,840 Speaker 5: go on some sort of a methodical fashion or maybe 217 00:11:27,040 --> 00:11:31,920 Speaker 5: once a meeting or once a quarter when to ease policy. 218 00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:34,040 Speaker 5: I just don't see kind of the rush for that 219 00:11:34,120 --> 00:11:34,800 Speaker 5: first rate cut. 220 00:11:34,920 --> 00:11:35,960 Speaker 3: Jonathan, would you agree with that? 221 00:11:36,000 --> 00:11:38,319 Speaker 7: Are you sympathetic to the view that some have espoused, 222 00:11:38,679 --> 00:11:42,520 Speaker 7: including Neil Tata over renmac talking about how this is 223 00:11:42,600 --> 00:11:45,800 Speaker 7: a rapidly weakening economy and if the FED doesn't get 224 00:11:45,800 --> 00:11:47,559 Speaker 7: ahead of it, that the declines are going to be 225 00:11:47,559 --> 00:11:48,800 Speaker 7: harder to counter in the future. 226 00:11:51,160 --> 00:11:54,080 Speaker 6: I mean, I if I were a monetary policy maker, 227 00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:57,560 Speaker 6: I would probably thinking about some calibration might be needed 228 00:11:57,559 --> 00:11:59,679 Speaker 6: to ward off worst case outcomes. I think one of 229 00:11:59,679 --> 00:12:01,560 Speaker 6: the problem is that we're seeing slowing in growth, but 230 00:12:01,600 --> 00:12:05,559 Speaker 6: we're not really seeing such severe slowing that monetary policy 231 00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:08,480 Speaker 6: makers seem like they really need to act urgently, But 232 00:12:09,200 --> 00:12:12,720 Speaker 6: we have that a's Our expectation is that growth is 233 00:12:12,760 --> 00:12:15,360 Speaker 6: going to slow. It's going to take the FOMC time 234 00:12:15,400 --> 00:12:17,800 Speaker 6: to digest, but next year they're probably going to want 235 00:12:17,800 --> 00:12:19,560 Speaker 6: to pick up the pace a little bit, right. I mean, 236 00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:23,360 Speaker 6: so we have them after they see payroll slow, after 237 00:12:23,360 --> 00:12:25,560 Speaker 6: they see GDP growth slow, we've got a little bit 238 00:12:25,600 --> 00:12:28,720 Speaker 6: lower inflation forecast than they do, that they're going to 239 00:12:28,720 --> 00:12:32,840 Speaker 6: start to feel like, look, maybe policy really is restrictive. 240 00:12:32,920 --> 00:12:35,559 Speaker 6: Something they've been debating a little bit. Maybe we need 241 00:12:35,600 --> 00:12:37,520 Speaker 6: to get out of this restrictive stance of policy a 242 00:12:37,559 --> 00:12:39,840 Speaker 6: little bit more quickly than we expect. So we expect 243 00:12:39,840 --> 00:12:41,439 Speaker 6: them to have the same terminal rate that they have 244 00:12:41,480 --> 00:12:44,320 Speaker 6: in the SEP, but get there a lot faster next 245 00:12:44,360 --> 00:12:46,800 Speaker 6: year and into twenty twenty six than their current projections. 246 00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:48,679 Speaker 2: John, I don't want to turn into a therapy session 247 00:12:48,720 --> 00:12:50,600 Speaker 2: for Wall Street, but I just imagine it must be 248 00:12:50,640 --> 00:12:53,200 Speaker 2: incredibly frustrating for you to have absolutely now the data 249 00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:55,800 Speaker 2: of the last twenty four hours and then been surprised 250 00:12:55,840 --> 00:12:57,839 Speaker 2: with the way they've responded to it. What are you 251 00:12:57,840 --> 00:13:01,080 Speaker 2: struggling with right now that reaction function or just the 252 00:13:01,080 --> 00:13:03,319 Speaker 2: way they're seeing the data that you've been forecasting. 253 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:07,440 Speaker 6: What is it. I've been a little surprised at their 254 00:13:07,440 --> 00:13:12,400 Speaker 6: sort of lack of acknowledgment over the degree of cooling. 255 00:13:12,440 --> 00:13:15,439 Speaker 6: I think that's underway. I mean they you know, non 256 00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:17,840 Speaker 6: far and peril employment looks good. Is certainly a headline, 257 00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:20,360 Speaker 6: and they've sort of walked away with that as sort 258 00:13:20,400 --> 00:13:23,000 Speaker 6: of a summary statistic for the strength. But even if 259 00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:24,840 Speaker 6: we look at non far and peril employment, I mean, 260 00:13:25,120 --> 00:13:27,480 Speaker 6: private employment over the last twelve months are slow to 261 00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:28,600 Speaker 6: sort of one seventy years. 262 00:13:29,360 --> 00:13:31,719 Speaker 2: You say, they they walk away with that, and I 263 00:13:31,840 --> 00:13:33,840 Speaker 2: walked away from the news conference. Yes, and her chairman 264 00:13:33,880 --> 00:13:36,880 Speaker 2: Power say something like maybe two seventy two overstates the 265 00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:39,079 Speaker 2: strength of the labor market. I just wonder who they 266 00:13:39,160 --> 00:13:41,679 Speaker 2: is on the committee right now. I find it really confusing. 267 00:13:42,120 --> 00:13:44,520 Speaker 2: Two seventy two for some seems like it's the real deal. 268 00:13:44,800 --> 00:13:46,679 Speaker 2: Hence the dot plot. It's another part of the dot 269 00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:49,920 Speaker 2: plot that feels like they're in camp pal maybe overstended strength. 270 00:13:49,960 --> 00:13:51,920 Speaker 2: When you say things like they who are even talking 271 00:13:51,920 --> 00:13:53,079 Speaker 2: about in the committee anymore? 272 00:13:54,040 --> 00:13:57,640 Speaker 6: I would I would actually in terms of in terms 273 00:13:57,679 --> 00:14:01,280 Speaker 6: of this narrative. I'd lump in the vast majority of participants. 274 00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:03,600 Speaker 6: I think when I think here here Governor Waller talk 275 00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:07,480 Speaker 6: about the strength, you think about Philip Jefferson's speech before 276 00:14:07,480 --> 00:14:10,160 Speaker 6: the quiet period talking about you know, the strength and 277 00:14:10,200 --> 00:14:13,440 Speaker 6: private domestic final purchases. I mean, they're all pulling out 278 00:14:13,600 --> 00:14:17,160 Speaker 6: relatively strong components and cuts of the data at the moment, 279 00:14:17,520 --> 00:14:19,520 Speaker 6: and I feel like you got an element of that 280 00:14:19,640 --> 00:14:22,200 Speaker 6: in share Pal. Even though he might acknowledge that the 281 00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:25,600 Speaker 6: two seventy two was overstating, he's not acting as though 282 00:14:25,640 --> 00:14:26,440 Speaker 6: it's one ninety. 283 00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:27,680 Speaker 2: What was your take? 284 00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:30,160 Speaker 4: I think that at this point they don't know what 285 00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:33,000 Speaker 4: they're doing, and so they're going to be honest about that. 286 00:14:33,080 --> 00:14:37,400 Speaker 4: The difference between us and John is that you guys 287 00:14:37,400 --> 00:14:40,080 Speaker 4: have a forecast, and you make a forecast, and they 288 00:14:40,080 --> 00:14:44,360 Speaker 4: have nineteen forecasts, and we, for our convenience, pick out 289 00:14:44,360 --> 00:14:47,040 Speaker 4: a median and say that's their forecast. It's not their forecast. 290 00:14:47,120 --> 00:14:49,800 Speaker 4: There's nineteen different forecasts, and the range is pretty wide, 291 00:14:49,840 --> 00:14:51,920 Speaker 4: and especially if you look at twenty twenty five, the 292 00:14:52,000 --> 00:14:54,560 Speaker 4: range is very wide. There's a plurality in the middle, 293 00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:56,640 Speaker 4: but they don't know what's going to be happening by then, 294 00:14:56,840 --> 00:15:01,240 Speaker 4: so and another quarter from now, in Tember, they'll change 295 00:15:01,320 --> 00:15:05,479 Speaker 4: their forecasts and their dot plot again and will all recalibrate. 296 00:15:06,240 --> 00:15:11,160 Speaker 4: I think basically they're in a sort of hold mode, 297 00:15:12,160 --> 00:15:14,960 Speaker 4: risk management mode. I guess at this point we'll see 298 00:15:15,160 --> 00:15:17,720 Speaker 4: where inflation goes and we can move, but we don't 299 00:15:17,760 --> 00:15:18,040 Speaker 4: have to. 300 00:15:18,400 --> 00:15:20,440 Speaker 3: You know, John, you didn't want a therapy session. I 301 00:15:20,440 --> 00:15:20,760 Speaker 3: think that. 302 00:15:20,760 --> 00:15:21,880 Speaker 2: Actually we're about to get one. 303 00:15:21,960 --> 00:15:24,080 Speaker 3: A lot of people are looking for a therapy session 304 00:15:24,120 --> 00:15:25,960 Speaker 3: because there was a lot of uncertainty and it's been 305 00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:29,720 Speaker 3: a very challenging year. So Subadra, I'm curious how you 306 00:15:29,760 --> 00:15:33,280 Speaker 3: come up with a projection of there is enough strength, 307 00:15:33,400 --> 00:15:36,680 Speaker 3: we don't need those sort of cuts to sort of 308 00:15:36,680 --> 00:15:38,760 Speaker 3: be cosmetic or get ahead of that weakness. 309 00:15:39,200 --> 00:15:40,640 Speaker 2: What gives you conviction in that? 310 00:15:40,680 --> 00:15:45,800 Speaker 3: What's your guiding compass at a time of such great uncertainty. 311 00:15:45,920 --> 00:15:47,960 Speaker 5: You can listen to the Fed, for instance, when you 312 00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:53,320 Speaker 5: listen to John Williams from the New York Fed President, 313 00:15:53,800 --> 00:15:56,680 Speaker 5: what he said was his expectation is for growth in 314 00:15:56,680 --> 00:15:59,680 Speaker 5: the context of two and a half percent. He's expecting 315 00:15:59,840 --> 00:16:04,040 Speaker 5: the unemployment rate to be around four percent, and he's expecting, 316 00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:07,840 Speaker 5: you know, core PC above or at or above two 317 00:16:07,840 --> 00:16:11,600 Speaker 5: and a half percent. So even from what they're saying 318 00:16:12,440 --> 00:16:15,760 Speaker 5: just from their own forecasts and the Summary of economic projections, 319 00:16:16,120 --> 00:16:19,160 Speaker 5: leave it on our forecasts and our expectations. There's no 320 00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:23,960 Speaker 5: clear indication that they're going to need to rush into cuts. 321 00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:26,600 Speaker 5: That's why I think that you know, in addition to 322 00:16:26,640 --> 00:16:29,680 Speaker 5: our own forecast from our economists, what we're hearing from 323 00:16:29,720 --> 00:16:32,400 Speaker 5: the FED is also consistent with the FED that needs 324 00:16:32,400 --> 00:16:33,800 Speaker 5: to be on hold for the remainder. 325 00:16:33,480 --> 00:16:35,880 Speaker 3: Of the year. Honestly, I got to say, John, one 326 00:16:35,880 --> 00:16:38,800 Speaker 3: thing that people Jonathan think, well, one thing that people 327 00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:41,360 Speaker 3: keep saying is all of this out there. It sounds bad, 328 00:16:41,440 --> 00:16:44,440 Speaker 3: it's hard to gauge whatever, but you know, in video 329 00:16:44,480 --> 00:16:46,360 Speaker 3: is going to change the world. We're going to have 330 00:16:46,360 --> 00:16:49,960 Speaker 3: all these technological advancements, We're going to have fiscal impulses 331 00:16:49,960 --> 00:16:52,240 Speaker 3: that come down the pike. How do you factor in 332 00:16:52,720 --> 00:16:56,000 Speaker 3: sort of the nebulous concepts that have driven this market 333 00:16:56,000 --> 00:16:58,720 Speaker 3: this year as opposed to sort of over arching macro 334 00:16:58,840 --> 00:17:00,560 Speaker 3: top down views. 335 00:17:01,600 --> 00:17:05,600 Speaker 6: So we could get at en video boost. I would 336 00:17:05,600 --> 00:17:07,640 Speaker 6: say if that really was a productivity boost, we would 337 00:17:07,640 --> 00:17:09,920 Speaker 6: see lower inflation of the FED probably have lower rates 338 00:17:09,920 --> 00:17:13,200 Speaker 6: as well. And the physcal policy obviously has been huge. 339 00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:15,359 Speaker 6: I mean, it's really done a lot to insulate the 340 00:17:15,440 --> 00:17:18,240 Speaker 6: economy from the rate hikes and the rapid rate hiking 341 00:17:18,240 --> 00:17:20,399 Speaker 6: cycle of FED, and that is an impulse that's fading 342 00:17:20,480 --> 00:17:22,359 Speaker 6: right now. And we're going to head into twenty twenty 343 00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:24,680 Speaker 6: five with a year Congress is probably going to spend 344 00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:27,200 Speaker 6: having to rewrite a substantial amount of the tax code 345 00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:30,160 Speaker 6: to avoid the fiscal drag at the end of the year. 346 00:17:30,280 --> 00:17:32,959 Speaker 6: So these are all meaningful influences. I mean, we all 347 00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:35,119 Speaker 6: just have to sort of do our best look at 348 00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:37,960 Speaker 6: the details, aggregate up. But I mean I would sort 349 00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:42,600 Speaker 6: of echo this point. It's not necessarily that we can 350 00:17:42,680 --> 00:17:45,760 Speaker 6: debate how we're thinking about our growth forecast. But if 351 00:17:45,800 --> 00:17:49,240 Speaker 6: we take the wide swath of FOMC participants, they just 352 00:17:49,240 --> 00:17:52,840 Speaker 6: don't seem to be internalizing any trade off between growth 353 00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:56,159 Speaker 6: and the level of interest rates right now. And that 354 00:17:56,320 --> 00:17:58,600 Speaker 6: just seems to be a group that is willing to wait. 355 00:17:59,200 --> 00:18:00,919 Speaker 6: And the reason the other reason we pushed our call 356 00:18:01,040 --> 00:18:02,520 Speaker 6: is just you know, when they get into the September, 357 00:18:02,560 --> 00:18:05,359 Speaker 6: if they're still not facing a trade off with weaker growth, 358 00:18:06,200 --> 00:18:08,119 Speaker 6: you know, I think the arguments will carry the day 359 00:18:08,280 --> 00:18:08,960 Speaker 6: to wait longer. 360 00:18:09,040 --> 00:18:12,800 Speaker 3: I have to wonder Sabadra August twenty second, August twenty third. 361 00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:14,800 Speaker 3: I think it's August twenty third that Jay Powell is 362 00:18:14,840 --> 00:18:17,280 Speaker 3: going to be in the Titans and he's going to 363 00:18:17,320 --> 00:18:19,720 Speaker 3: be talking to people giving a message. At one point 364 00:18:19,720 --> 00:18:21,919 Speaker 3: it was a very clear message, pain. It's all going 365 00:18:21,920 --> 00:18:23,880 Speaker 3: to be pain. We need to date with this under control. 366 00:18:24,040 --> 00:18:25,080 Speaker 3: What's it going to be this year? 367 00:18:26,760 --> 00:18:29,120 Speaker 5: I think it's stayed the course. I think it's caution. 368 00:18:29,720 --> 00:18:32,679 Speaker 5: For the most part. The Fed is going to strike 369 00:18:32,720 --> 00:18:36,120 Speaker 5: a cautious tone. In my view, at least, I felt 370 00:18:36,160 --> 00:18:41,160 Speaker 5: like they pivoted too soon towards rate cuts late last year, 371 00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:42,560 Speaker 5: and I think that they're going to take a much 372 00:18:42,640 --> 00:18:46,479 Speaker 5: more cautious tone and wait for the data to guide 373 00:18:46,520 --> 00:18:51,520 Speaker 5: them on policy. So our expectations that they'll start cutting 374 00:18:51,520 --> 00:18:54,760 Speaker 5: some time in the first quarter of next year and 375 00:18:54,840 --> 00:18:58,639 Speaker 5: then deliver a steady set of cuts for the remainder 376 00:18:58,640 --> 00:19:01,000 Speaker 5: of the year. But then the trem FED fundstrate is 377 00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:03,239 Speaker 5: probably going to be higher. We think that the our 378 00:19:03,359 --> 00:19:05,760 Speaker 5: star is also higher, and you're seeing that in the 379 00:19:05,840 --> 00:19:10,040 Speaker 5: market pricing for both the FED as well as for 380 00:19:11,880 --> 00:19:15,320 Speaker 5: the tenure yield, which is higher for longer. So the 381 00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:19,680 Speaker 5: market is ever so slowly calibrating to a much higher 382 00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:22,080 Speaker 5: our star, and so I think that the Fed is 383 00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:25,760 Speaker 5: going to be somewhat cautious. This feels like a little 384 00:19:25,760 --> 00:19:28,199 Speaker 5: bit of a paradigm shift, if you will, from the 385 00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:31,479 Speaker 5: period after the Great Financial Crisis, when we were bringing 386 00:19:31,520 --> 00:19:33,639 Speaker 5: down the ur star ever so gradually. Now we're going 387 00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:36,520 Speaker 5: to go the other way and start recalibrating our star higher. 388 00:19:36,640 --> 00:19:39,320 Speaker 2: Just perfectly said, it feels like post GFC in reverse 389 00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:41,040 Speaker 2: at the moment. That's for sure. A special thanks to 390 00:19:41,040 --> 00:19:44,320 Speaker 2: Team twenty twenty five and Team December, so Benjera Zeppa 391 00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:57,560 Speaker 2: and Jonathan Finko. Thank you. Sarry Haynes of Pangaea Policy 392 00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:00,320 Speaker 2: joins us. Now for more, Sarry, let's do this side 393 00:20:00,320 --> 00:20:03,200 Speaker 2: by side the preview. How different are those two addresses 394 00:20:03,480 --> 00:20:03,960 Speaker 2: going to be? 395 00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:08,920 Speaker 8: Well, of course they're pretty different, because one's primarily about 396 00:20:08,920 --> 00:20:12,399 Speaker 8: domestic policy and one's about foreign policy. I mean, Biden 397 00:20:12,440 --> 00:20:17,000 Speaker 8: will be doing what he's doing with the G seven, 398 00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:21,400 Speaker 8: talking about Russian assets has been and how to deploy 399 00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:24,440 Speaker 8: them to help Ukraine, as you and Lisa were talking 400 00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:27,520 Speaker 8: about a few minutes ago, and what Trump's doing in 401 00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:31,840 Speaker 8: Washington today, frankly is really make fundamentally, he is making 402 00:20:31,920 --> 00:20:37,760 Speaker 8: a pitch to business leaders and trying to show unity 403 00:20:36,560 --> 00:20:41,840 Speaker 8: with congressional Republicans to show what a twenty twenty five 404 00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:46,040 Speaker 8: all Republican Washington might look like. Now, I think that's 405 00:20:46,960 --> 00:20:51,080 Speaker 8: only about a thirty percent likelihood at most. The split 406 00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:54,240 Speaker 8: Congress is a split Congress, and with a tiny bind 407 00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:58,680 Speaker 8: advantages might call today. But even if Trump's president, market 408 00:20:58,720 --> 00:21:02,359 Speaker 8: should understand that what brought on the animal spirits in 409 00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:06,320 Speaker 8: twenty sixteen wasn't Trump being president. It was Congress going 410 00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:10,560 Speaker 8: a Republican that allowed the twenty seventeen tax cuts to happen. 411 00:21:10,640 --> 00:21:14,840 Speaker 8: So you know, the Congress, Frankly here, for what markets 412 00:21:14,880 --> 00:21:16,960 Speaker 8: care about, is more important than the president, and that's 413 00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:18,480 Speaker 8: kind of what Trump's trying to show. 414 00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:20,720 Speaker 2: Terry, let's just sit on the business round table. We're 415 00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:23,480 Speaker 2: not talking about any CEO. We're talking about the CEOs 416 00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:26,359 Speaker 2: and the biggest financial institutions on Wall Street, the CEO 417 00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:29,199 Speaker 2: of Apple. There has been a question more recently over 418 00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:31,280 Speaker 2: the last few months, particularly on this program, about how 419 00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:35,680 Speaker 2: business friendly a second Trump presidency would actually be. How 420 00:21:35,680 --> 00:21:37,199 Speaker 2: business friendly do you think it will be? 421 00:21:38,480 --> 00:21:41,840 Speaker 8: They'll try to make it so, and I think it 422 00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:44,520 Speaker 8: probably would be should it come to pass, although as 423 00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:48,920 Speaker 8: I say, it's not my base case with the Republican Congress. 424 00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:50,639 Speaker 8: I think what you get is if you get it 425 00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:54,199 Speaker 8: in all Republican Congress. Just as in twenty seventeen, you 426 00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:58,959 Speaker 8: see the Congress driving things like tax cuts and the 427 00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:02,280 Speaker 8: policies that business cares most about. They were much more 428 00:22:02,280 --> 00:22:04,760 Speaker 8: in the driver's seat than Trump was on that sort 429 00:22:04,760 --> 00:22:07,119 Speaker 8: of thing. I do think that if you see a 430 00:22:07,200 --> 00:22:11,119 Speaker 8: Trump presidency with a split Congress, though, you're going to 431 00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:14,200 Speaker 8: see a lot more of what I've been calling recently 432 00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:21,480 Speaker 8: Mount Trump, where he pushes back against those who don't 433 00:22:21,480 --> 00:22:23,520 Speaker 8: want to do whatever it is that he wants to 434 00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:26,919 Speaker 8: do in the Congress. Now, you know that relates mostly 435 00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:30,560 Speaker 8: to I think fiscal policy and domestic policy. Let's remember 436 00:22:30,680 --> 00:22:34,040 Speaker 8: that in today's Washington, just as in twenty twenty five 437 00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:35,800 Speaker 8: is Washington, you're going to have an awful lot of 438 00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:38,840 Speaker 8: unity on foreign policy, all to the good, and you're 439 00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:41,240 Speaker 8: going to have an awful lot of unity on fiscal 440 00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:45,000 Speaker 8: policy that frankly makes markets feel squarely because it's more 441 00:22:45,320 --> 00:22:47,600 Speaker 8: more fiscal spend, more debt and deficit. 442 00:22:47,880 --> 00:22:49,120 Speaker 3: There's a lot that you said there that I want 443 00:22:49,119 --> 00:22:51,480 Speaker 3: to unpack. But Terry, this idea that we might hear 444 00:22:51,960 --> 00:22:54,760 Speaker 3: what a second term of President Trump might look like. 445 00:22:55,160 --> 00:22:57,359 Speaker 3: What are you listening for, especially when it comes to 446 00:22:57,400 --> 00:22:59,720 Speaker 3: the business world at a time when a lot of 447 00:22:59,760 --> 00:23:01,600 Speaker 3: people people really don't have certainty around that. 448 00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:05,520 Speaker 8: Well, you know, it's a pitch. He's he's here for 449 00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:08,800 Speaker 8: a lot of reasons. And just as any politician, you know, 450 00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:13,200 Speaker 8: you're trying to not only show what you do think, 451 00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:15,359 Speaker 8: but you're trying to show what kind of reality you'd 452 00:23:15,400 --> 00:23:18,159 Speaker 8: like to create. You know, he's in the business of 453 00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:21,320 Speaker 8: showing a couple of things. One that he's business friendly 454 00:23:21,480 --> 00:23:24,199 Speaker 8: and secondly that he's going to be a kind of 455 00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:26,639 Speaker 8: a rational actor on a lot of this stuff. You know, 456 00:23:26,720 --> 00:23:29,800 Speaker 8: and and he was on tax cuts. And one of 457 00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:33,320 Speaker 8: the things that he wants to do is remind people 458 00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:36,920 Speaker 8: that they they'll continue to be a business there he'll 459 00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:40,679 Speaker 8: be a business friendly presidency that he wants them to 460 00:23:41,040 --> 00:23:45,040 Speaker 8: and they should want to support Republican candidates in Congress 461 00:23:45,040 --> 00:23:48,760 Speaker 8: to create that all Republican reality that allows them more 462 00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:53,600 Speaker 8: business freedom, less taxes, less regulation, that sort of thing. 463 00:23:54,440 --> 00:23:57,639 Speaker 8: And you know, he also wants to show frankly that 464 00:23:58,280 --> 00:24:02,880 Speaker 8: he's worthy of being supported financially and rhetorically in every 465 00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:06,719 Speaker 8: other way because the reality again is he doesn't have 466 00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:09,560 Speaker 8: a United Party and he's not attracting independence. One way 467 00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:12,679 Speaker 8: to do it is the show. He's clearly differentiated on economics. 468 00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:14,720 Speaker 3: Terry, you said that there also seems to be some 469 00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:19,040 Speaker 3: unanimity on foreign policy at a time where President Biden 470 00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:22,040 Speaker 3: is at the G seven trying to sort of immunize 471 00:24:22,160 --> 00:24:25,720 Speaker 3: international policy from elections. Given some of the latest moves 472 00:24:25,760 --> 00:24:27,879 Speaker 3: on Ukraine, how do you square that? What does the 473 00:24:27,960 --> 00:24:30,800 Speaker 3: United Front in the US look like when it comes 474 00:24:30,800 --> 00:24:32,800 Speaker 3: to foreign policy, and it's likely to come down the 475 00:24:32,800 --> 00:24:36,320 Speaker 3: pike regardless of who takes office, but maybe with a 476 00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:39,520 Speaker 3: greater emphasis with another president Trump. 477 00:24:40,520 --> 00:24:43,320 Speaker 8: Well, you're going to have a situation where in twenty 478 00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:47,680 Speaker 8: twenty five, regardless of who the president is, where the 479 00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:51,080 Speaker 8: vast majority in Congress, and I think the vast majority 480 00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:55,440 Speaker 8: of the public too, supports current US foreign policy, supports 481 00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:59,159 Speaker 8: helping Ukraine, sports, helping in the Middle East, helping Israel 482 00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:03,880 Speaker 8: and getting getting peace there, helping in the Endo Pacific, 483 00:25:03,960 --> 00:25:07,679 Speaker 8: all the rest. One of the things that took so 484 00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:12,479 Speaker 8: long in getting that aid, though frankly, is that Biden 485 00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:16,160 Speaker 8: was not very good, very forceful, you know, pushing very 486 00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:19,600 Speaker 8: hard to actually get that. You know, It's it said 487 00:25:19,640 --> 00:25:23,320 Speaker 8: everything that Biden announced this emergency in November, and yet 488 00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:26,880 Speaker 8: no one Democrat or Republican on the hill really reacted 489 00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:29,120 Speaker 8: to it, and it took almost six months to clear 490 00:25:29,160 --> 00:25:32,399 Speaker 8: it up. I suspect what you're going to end up 491 00:25:32,400 --> 00:25:36,960 Speaker 8: seeing is a lot more urgency down the line. And 492 00:25:36,960 --> 00:25:41,160 Speaker 8: and I think I think, just as last time, Trump 493 00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:46,399 Speaker 8: largely gets led by Republicans in Congress to create a 494 00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:51,439 Speaker 8: foreign policy and an economic policy that continues along the 495 00:25:51,480 --> 00:25:54,480 Speaker 8: same lines. You know, you may see a little skepticism 496 00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:56,120 Speaker 8: on the margins, but right now, I don't think it's 497 00:25:56,160 --> 00:25:57,159 Speaker 8: going to be that significant. 498 00:25:57,440 --> 00:26:00,160 Speaker 2: Terry go to catch up, Sir Terry Hines of Pangea Policy, 499 00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:03,879 Speaker 2: Dow in Washington, on the Latest. This is the Bloomberg 500 00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:07,680 Speaker 2: Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best in markets, economics, and 501 00:26:07,800 --> 00:26:10,600 Speaker 2: geo politics. 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