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Speaker 1: The armstrong and getting so Democrats by nature a nervous

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Speaker 1: they they're so traumatized by two thousand and sixteen. They

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Speaker 1: have to get over it, all right, And I get

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Speaker 1: this all the time. I'll change. Please don't say that,

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Speaker 1: because if people think we're gonna win and not to

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Speaker 1: combine Vook, that's the idiotic We're going to win. What

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Speaker 1: do you want me to do? Biden campaign has actually

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Speaker 1: been pretty good. He gets pretty good in the debates,

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Speaker 1: and of course he's gonna make gas between nine election

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Speaker 1: day and it just sends the the Democratic Party into

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Speaker 1: some kind of state of depression. Get over it, tough enough, people,

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Speaker 1: I'm sorry, that's just the truth. Deal with a Democrats.

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Speaker 1: You're gonna worry. James Carville saying, look, we're gonna win. Well,

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Speaker 1: there are a lot of polls out there that are

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Speaker 1: not favorable to Donald Trump right now. And I thought

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Speaker 1: we'd talked to somebody who knows a lot about being

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Speaker 1: involved in presidential campaigns. And you know where we are now.

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Speaker 1: We haven't talked about about this sort of stuff because god,

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Speaker 1: we're four months out and well and and well, I

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Speaker 1: tell you what, let's bring long he in and and

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Speaker 1: include him in the conversation lot and he j Chen

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Speaker 1: David and Diane Stephie fellow in American Public Policy Studies

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Speaker 1: at the Hoover Institution. Uh joins us. Now on here,

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Speaker 1: how are you, sir? It's good to be with you

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Speaker 1: this morning. Think I got your title right? I forget

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Speaker 1: to put on my glasses, so I'm squinting like a fiend.

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Speaker 1: And you and you you have been involved in a

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Speaker 1: couple of big time, major presidential campaigns, correct, four of them,

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Speaker 1: including as a as a senior aide to romney in

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Speaker 1: and a senior aide to Marco Rubio. And you're and

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Speaker 1: you're a student of history and teach all this stuff.

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Speaker 1: So um, good person to ask some of these questions. One,

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Speaker 1: do numbers move very dramatically from this point to election day?

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Speaker 1: I mean is that common they? You know? Can can

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Speaker 1: you make up ground? Did they tend to say you're

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Speaker 1: eight points down in a pivotal swing? Stated? Sure? Did

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Speaker 1: do numbers like that change in the last four months?

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Speaker 1: Does that happen regularly? Yeah? The numbers definitely will bounce

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Speaker 1: all over the place. Trends will change based on events.

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Speaker 1: You know, if you look at the campaign as an example,

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Speaker 1: you had you had a race that was not close

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Speaker 1: for a large part of the of the summer months

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Speaker 1: and then closed quite rapidly after the first presidential debate,

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Speaker 1: which was in early October in Denver. So yeah, that

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Speaker 1: the numbers can absolutely change. The margins are are big now,

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Speaker 1: don't get me wrong. I think Joe Biden has a

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Speaker 1: very healthy lead nationally. Some of the swing state polling,

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Speaker 1: which has been notoriously inaccurate in the past, the sort

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Speaker 1: of throw weight of that swing state polling suggest that

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Speaker 1: Trump is also in trouble. So, I mean, those numbers

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Speaker 1: I think reflect where we are today, but they are

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Speaker 1: not necessarily a reflection of where the race will be

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Speaker 1: in September or October. Well, not necessarily. But has anybody

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Speaker 1: ever come back in one who is this far down

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Speaker 1: four months out? That's a good question. So um, I

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Speaker 1: believe Buchanan was down thirteen points Jack and fairly fairly

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Speaker 1: modern phenomenon. But I just don't remember anybody being this

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Speaker 1: far down and coming back and winning. Yeah, I mean,

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Speaker 1: there are certainly people who held onto leads, obviously, but

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Speaker 1: I don't I don't know about coming back, And I'm

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Speaker 1: just trying to rack in my brain thinking about people

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Speaker 1: that have come back to win. Uh, and and it's

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Speaker 1: been rare. Clinton wasn't doing particularly well um against George H. W. Bush,

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Speaker 1: and then things kind of turned around for him late

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Speaker 1: in the race. So that might be one race to

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Speaker 1: look at where I would say Clinton was probably down

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Speaker 1: at this point came back to winning and not down

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Speaker 1: by a small number either. So um. You know, part

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Speaker 1: of a challenge for for Donald Trump as I see

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Speaker 1: it now, is that there's two things. One is the

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Speaker 1: self sort of self made errors I think has finally

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Speaker 1: begun to accumulate. I think people are beginning to see that,

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Speaker 1: and the set things they I would just saying there's

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Speaker 1: some you know, recent news about this is that it's

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Speaker 1: not really clear what his second term agenda will look like.

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Speaker 1: And I think he and his campaign probably need to

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Speaker 1: get out there and to find that a little better.

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Speaker 1: Uh if if, if he wants to close this gap, right,

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Speaker 1: I mean, even Trump fans who are friends, relatives of

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Speaker 1: mine and ours will admit to some Trump fatigue, um,

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Speaker 1: and he absolutely needs to balance that with a powerful

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Speaker 1: as he would probably put it, a positive message for

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Speaker 1: the second term. So listen, Lon he j J And

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Speaker 1: I am, I'm a sport that did you? Are you

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Speaker 1: a sports fan at all? Have we ever talked about this? Yes? Yes, right, okay,

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Speaker 1: I am, I'm I'm I'm a big sports fan. What's

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Speaker 1: your favorite sport? I would say it's baseball? Okay, all right, fine,

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Speaker 1: I'm a I'm a Dodger fan. Well, oh my god,

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Speaker 1: we can't be friends anymore. Sorry, Uh no, I can't.

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Speaker 1: Um a lot of fabulous Dodger fans listening to the show,

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Speaker 1: and we're as willing to pander to you as dandy.

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Speaker 1: But so if if you took a snapshot of where

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Speaker 1: we are right now in terms of the Trump campaign

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Speaker 1: and the numbers we've been discussing, is he down two

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Speaker 1: runs in the fourth inning or how would you how

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Speaker 1: would you put? How does he stand? How nervous should

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Speaker 1: Trump fans be? I think they should be nervous, but

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Speaker 1: they shouldn't be overwhelmingly so, so I would say he's down,

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Speaker 1: you know, I'd say five or six runs in the

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Speaker 1: second inning. That's how I would That's that. That's how

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Speaker 1: it put. Interesting, it's a pretty it's a pretty big lead,

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Speaker 1: but it's so early, okay, that is, and he's a

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Speaker 1: team that's won a lot, so right, right, I mean

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Speaker 1: you know, if so and all the players on the

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Speaker 1: other team are eighty years old, there, right, they all

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Speaker 1: have to they both torn their A C. L s

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Speaker 1: or at Tommy john Surgs Racing. Look, here's here's here's

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Speaker 1: how I would think about it if I were looking

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Speaker 1: at these polls. And I'm sure you know you've got

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Speaker 1: a very sophisticated listener base. So maybe I'm saying something

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Speaker 1: people already know, but you do not need to worry

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Speaker 1: so much about the national polls. The real worrisome numbers

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Speaker 1: that we're seeing if you're the Trump campaign or a

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Speaker 1: Trump supporter, are in the state five state And if

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Speaker 1: he's losing states like Arizona and Florida and North Carolina

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Speaker 1: that he won in twenty sixteen with decently healthy margins,

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Speaker 1: you've got to be concerned when you see a number like,

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Speaker 1: you know, down seven or eight in Arizona, down seven

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Speaker 1: or eight in Florida. We're looking at him down to

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Speaker 1: eleven in Wisconsin, down to eleven in Wisconsin, down ten

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Speaker 1: in Pennsylvania. Though, that's tough, and I think the numbers

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Speaker 1: even bigger in Michigan. I mean, you know, I think

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Speaker 1: we if you're the Trump campaign, you really do need

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Speaker 1: to focus on Arizona and Florida and North Carolina right now.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the fact that you're down in those states

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Speaker 1: is a is a major trouble sign. Uh. The other states,

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Speaker 1: I mean Michigan, Wisconsin, those those polls never really had

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Speaker 1: him all that close. And I think a few poles

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Speaker 1: at the very in may have had him closing in Michigan,

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Speaker 1: but the mission Michigan within polling, Pennsylvania polling never really

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Speaker 1: was all that friendly to Donald Trump at sixteen anyway.

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Speaker 1: So so that's why I say, if you look at

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Speaker 1: the two thousand twenty state by state polling, it really

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Speaker 1: is those states in the in the seven of the

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Speaker 1: South that are worrisome for Ms. Trump. Lana he Chan

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Speaker 1: is online, Hey, Lana he quickly maybe a minute on this,

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Speaker 1: but I'm looking at some COVID nineteen statistics. Um, when

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Speaker 1: when the book is written, perhaps by you, about the

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Speaker 1: politics of COVID nineteen, what's the headline, what's that title?

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Speaker 1: What what approach would you take? How do you see

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Speaker 1: this whole thing? Because there's been such a big political uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, part of part of this that is political,

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Speaker 1: I should say, I would call the book the Polarized Pandemic,

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Speaker 1: and and you sort of hit on the on the

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Speaker 1: really big dynamic here, which is fascinating is the degree

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Speaker 1: to which we as a society have been polarized over

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Speaker 1: everything when it comes to this pandemic. I mean, there's

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Speaker 1: literally almost no question that is not politically polarized. Where

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Speaker 1: did the pandemic come from? What should we call it?

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Speaker 1: Should people wear masks? How should society respond to it?

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Speaker 1: Who is responsible for the spike in cases? Why is

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Speaker 1: there a spike in cases? All of these questions are

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Speaker 1: politically tinged, politically motivated. People's answers will differ based on

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Speaker 1: how they see their their politics and who they like

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Speaker 1: in political life and who they don't like. And that

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Speaker 1: to me is staggering, because if you look at past pandemics,

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Speaker 1: not just here in the US, but around the world,

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Speaker 1: you will find, i'd submit, a much lower degree of

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Speaker 1: political polarization. And in fact, if you look at the

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Speaker 1: response that other countries have had, it has not been

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Speaker 1: driven as much by politics, and so our situation here

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Speaker 1: around COVID nineteen this will be a story people will

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Speaker 1: write for generations to come how polarized we've become around

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Speaker 1: this pandemic. Well, that sounds like a great quickie book.

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Speaker 1: I proposed the following, you do the work, I put

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Speaker 1: my name on it, and and we put it on

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Speaker 1: the market. I want you to think about that. Since

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Speaker 1: you're offer great, offer a loan. He's a fellow in

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Speaker 1: the American Public Policy Studies at the Hoover Institution and

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Speaker 1: it's always great to talk. Thanks Lonnie Armstrong and Getty