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Speaker 1: Brandon Godola is a senior analyst for Late Round Fantasy

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Speaker 1: Football who previously worked at Number Fire and Fandel. He's

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Speaker 1: a multi time FSWA Award winner. He's a data nerd,

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Speaker 1: a golf analyst, a cat lover, a hooper, and a

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Speaker 1: big wrestling fan. These are his Late Round perspectives.

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Speaker 2: I had to dust off all the equipment, the microphone,

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Speaker 2: the camera.

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Speaker 3: I looked up.

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Speaker 2: I guess it's been well over six months since I

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Speaker 2: did a podcast.

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Speaker 4: So how long be since you did a show?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm like, where's all my stuff? Is it even

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Speaker 2: connected to my new computer?

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Speaker 3: But yeah, here we Are?

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Speaker 4: Was the last one that you did with with Jim?

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Speaker 3: Of course? Yeah?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, we love Jim.

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Speaker 3: Here love Jim Jim Thomas.

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Speaker 5: But Jim also I got a lot of questions about

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Speaker 5: him when I did the quarterback episode this year.

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Speaker 4: Prospect the episode and people were like, are you bringing

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Speaker 4: Jim on? And you're bringing Jim on.

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Speaker 5: But his job now does not allow him to do

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Speaker 5: shows and such, so we had Alfredo step in and

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Speaker 5: Alfredo's obviously awesome and it was a great show. And

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Speaker 5: now Alfredo's doing work quarterback work with reception perception, so

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Speaker 5: Alfredo will probably be the replacement of Jim, but I

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Speaker 5: don't know from from Jim's perspective.

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Speaker 4: He also this is.

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Speaker 5: Jim SNAs for the record, yes, but from Jim's perspective,

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Speaker 5: he went out on top because two years ago he

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Speaker 5: called Jade Daniels. Last year he called Jackson Dart and

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Speaker 5: you know Darts the top quarterback from that class now

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Speaker 5: in Dynasty.

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Speaker 4: So way to go, Jim, good job. But this is

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Speaker 4: about you. This is about you.

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Speaker 3: But you can make about Jim. That's fine.

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Speaker 4: No, we're not going it's about Jim.

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Speaker 5: You've been with you've been with Late Round Fantasy Football

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Speaker 5: for like five months now, over almost six months, and

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Speaker 5: you haven't done a show in the feed, and so

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Speaker 5: you know, we thought might as well do this because

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Speaker 5: you've been doing a lot of work on you know,

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Speaker 5: the for the folks who read the Prospect Guide. You know,

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Speaker 5: your name was thrown out there a lot because you

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Speaker 5: did the all the tight end work.

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Speaker 4: We've been doing a lot for.

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Speaker 5: Prepping and Slash getting started with the Draft Guide stuff,

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Speaker 5: new metrics coming out. There's just a bunch of stuff

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Speaker 5: that you've been doing. And so I thought this is

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Speaker 5: a really good time to sort of like throw you

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Speaker 5: out there, introduce you to the late round fantasy football

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Speaker 5: world in a more intimate way as opposed to the newsletter.

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Speaker 5: I should have mentioned the newsletters. So that's really what

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Speaker 5: you've been doing a ton of every week. But introduce

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Speaker 5: you to the late round world. But first in doing that,

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Speaker 5: talk about yourself a little bit, something that you.

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Speaker 4: Don't love doing.

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Speaker 5: I understand, I know, I know you well, but talk

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Speaker 5: about like what got you into this, how you started

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Speaker 5: in the space, all that, all that good stuff.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, this is going to be an interesting one. But

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Speaker 2: I can talk. I can go back farther a bit.

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Speaker 2: I mean, I was kind of always daydreaming about fantasy

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Speaker 2: football and middle school, high school. I was on the

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Speaker 2: message boards, you know, probably at that rate, talking some smack,

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Speaker 2: I'm sure, but I wouldn't do that now.

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Speaker 3: But looking at.

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Speaker 2: Things like schedule luck, like what if I played this

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Speaker 2: other person's schedule. I was looking into that stuff, and

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Speaker 2: because I was, you know, I felt like I got unlucky,

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Speaker 2: which you know always happens to everybody. But sure, all

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Speaker 2: that kind of stuff. You know, we're talking I guess

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Speaker 2: twenty years ago now at this point. But my brother

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Speaker 2: My older brother was kind of on the forefront. I

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Speaker 2: guess listening to some some podcasts and it's now defunct podcast.

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Speaker 2: I think it was called The Fantasy Fumble. They're like, hey,

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Speaker 2: we're launching a website. If you want to write content.

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Speaker 2: I this, yeah, this is yeah, it goes right into

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Speaker 2: the next step.

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Speaker 3: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, So this is crazy.

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Speaker 2: So my brother's like, you should do this like you

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Speaker 2: do this time, and I'm like all right, so I

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Speaker 2: did it. It was like some sort of base level

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Speaker 2: here's why you should not take a tight end or

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Speaker 2: a quarterback early, and you should get your flex like

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Speaker 2: figure it out, take a running back that kind of

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Speaker 2: like early. Yeah, you know, before we knew what we

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Speaker 2: know now about a lot of things and before the

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Speaker 2: game changed. But you know, it got published and whatever,

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Speaker 2: so you know, then probably like a year or two

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Speaker 2: go by, if I had to guess, the site has

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Speaker 2: long been erased from from the internet. So I'm scrolling

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Speaker 2: through Twitter before night class one night, I see a

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Speaker 2: tweet from you looking for writers for Number Fire, and

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Speaker 2: I'm like, well, I mean yeah, I read Number Fire,

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Speaker 2: so like of course, and I remember I was trying

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Speaker 2: to like dig up these old links my professor walks in.

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Speaker 2: I'm like, no, I'm leaving. I ain't missing this chance.

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Speaker 2: I don't know how quickly this.

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Speaker 3: Is going to go.

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Speaker 2: So I go in the stairwell, hide down the stairwell,

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Speaker 2: typing out on like this.

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Speaker 3: I mean old, like old old, you know now art phone.

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Speaker 2: I'm sure everything was loud and real slow, but I

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Speaker 2: got an email off to you. You liked enough of

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Speaker 2: what you saw, and uh then we chatted and you know,

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Speaker 2: I came on, wrote articles for Number five, started editing,

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Speaker 2: and then since then, you know, Number five got bought

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Speaker 2: by FanDuel and we worked together there till you left

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Speaker 2: and started late round Fantasy Football. And let's just say

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Speaker 2: I'm here now.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, yeah, I didn't know. So so the Fantasy FuMB?

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Speaker 4: Did you hear?

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Speaker 5: You know that Fantasy The Fantasy Fumble was the first

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Speaker 5: ever podcast that I did, really, no joke.

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Speaker 4: That's why I was freaking out when you said.

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Speaker 2: It with I think it was Scott or George George George, Yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 2: it was.

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Speaker 4: It was the first. It was the first show I

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Speaker 4: ever did.

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Speaker 5: I've told this story I think before, but like I

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Speaker 5: was such a nervous wreck, you know, I'm like twenty

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Speaker 5: three years old or something like that, such a nervous wreck.

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Speaker 5: I did it in I had like a couple of

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Speaker 5: beers before doing it, which is just very not my

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Speaker 5: style or MO and I went and I had like

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Speaker 5: I was living in Cincinnati. I had a closet that

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Speaker 5: was really big that it had good like sound, you know,

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Speaker 5: from a sound an acoustic perspective, and I recorded the

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Speaker 5: show from the closet of that of that room. And

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Speaker 5: I remember at that time, I had no idea how to,

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Speaker 5: like cause like when you first, especially back then, because

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Speaker 5: this was like twenty eleven twenty twelve timeframe, and back

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Speaker 5: then maybe twenty twelve. Back then, like this industry was

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Speaker 5: not nearly what it is now, where you've seen so

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Speaker 5: many like hundreds and hundreds of people come up and

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Speaker 5: then leave the industry, and you know, you kind of know,

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Speaker 5: even if you're newer in the industry that you're going

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Speaker 5: to be taking criticism all the time, like it's just

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Speaker 5: what it is with the fantasy football space. And I

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Speaker 5: remember I had no idea that it was going to

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Speaker 5: be like that because we didn't really know back then

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Speaker 5: what what it was like to be an analyst or

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Speaker 5: a thought leader or an influencer on the internet. We

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Speaker 5: I mean, it sounds crazy because it was only like

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Speaker 5: fourteen years ago, fifteen years.

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Speaker 4: Ago, but that's seriously how it was back then.

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Speaker 5: And I remember getting so tilted after doing that show

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Speaker 5: because I got off air and they were talking about

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Speaker 5: me afterwards, like on the show, and they were saying

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Speaker 5: things that were not even really criticism. It was me

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Speaker 5: taking it a certain way, and then I had to

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Speaker 5: go to Twitter and defend myself and defend my honor

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Speaker 5: and be very very overly aggressive about it.

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Speaker 4: And it's just funny.

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Speaker 5: That that all that all got brought back to me

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Speaker 5: with you bringing up the Fantasy Fumble, because they they

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Speaker 5: seriously were like some of the first people that I

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Speaker 5: had interacted with in the fantasy space. And now I'm

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Speaker 5: thinking about it. What if they would have just kept

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Speaker 5: going with that, they could be doing this thing full time.

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Speaker 3: Probably there are a lot of people who, like you said,

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Speaker 3: a lot of people.

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Speaker 2: Who have who were around and aren't really But there

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Speaker 2: are a lot of people who've just are kind of

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Speaker 2: around because they've been around and they had an audience,

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Speaker 2: and you know, it's not like that's not to comment on.

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Speaker 2: Like they never evolved or anything, but like getting in early,

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Speaker 2: like a lot of people did. I kind of think

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Speaker 2: about that too for that podcast and just kind of like, man,

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Speaker 2: I remember I don't even remember all of the things

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Speaker 2: that I read, all the people who were doing fantasy

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Speaker 2: like analysis and like when targets were kind of a

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Speaker 2: thing that people were like had some access didn't like

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Speaker 2: data on it. Yeah, and like I just think about

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Speaker 2: if those people. I think about this all the time

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Speaker 2: too for me, Like man if I just like learned

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Speaker 2: about some of this stuff early on, you know, because

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Speaker 2: my path is basically I'm an English major and now

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Speaker 2: I'm a senior analyst dealing with spreadsheets all day. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: I just think about like what what would be different

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Speaker 2: if I was had access to like targets or just

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Speaker 2: you know, were kind of in this a different way

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Speaker 2: early on. But I'm glad I came through it, uh

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Speaker 2: with from the content perspective, that's that's my strong suit.

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Speaker 2: But I think my background, like overall of just being

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Speaker 2: able to dig in and kind of feel it's that

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Speaker 2: I'd say, like an English lit you know degree, A

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Speaker 2: lot of people think it's worthless, but if you apply yourself,

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Speaker 2: like you're tasked with reading things, thinking about like you know,

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Speaker 2: you got to filter the information, take it different ways,

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Speaker 2: like create you know, I don't want to say create

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Speaker 2: a narrative, but actually find the narrative. One of the

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Speaker 2: things that I love to do. One of one of

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Speaker 2: the few things that I take away from school all

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Speaker 2: my many years of school, one of the most important

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Speaker 2: things was in an English class at Penn State at

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Speaker 2: a TA he's like, hey, you know, don't write a

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Speaker 2: thesis statement, like you're going to back yourself into a corner.

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Speaker 2: As you do more research, you might realize that that's wrong.

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Speaker 2: And yet you kind of finish your paper and you're like, well,

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Speaker 2: I'm just going to leave it like this. If you

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Speaker 2: ask questions, you get to explore things. Maybe you end

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Speaker 2: up with a strong takeaway, maybe you don't. But I'd

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Speaker 2: say that kind of is like my A lot of

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Speaker 2: my day to day now doing stuff with late round

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Speaker 2: is like, let's ask some questions, let's dig in and

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Speaker 2: like let's see what's there and if there's not, don't

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Speaker 2: force anything. But yeah, it's it's been a that's been

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Speaker 2: my journey. But I do think about those people who

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Speaker 2: kind of started early and who aren't really around anymore.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean there's definitely, like, you know, I do

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Speaker 4: not envy folks who are trying to make it in

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Speaker 4: the space right now. It was easier when we were

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Speaker 4: like because there's just what it wasn't as competitive now.

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Speaker 4: I also think from that perspective, you know, you bring

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Speaker 4: up like some of your work and you having this

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Speaker 4: feeling that what you're doing now is so much more

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Speaker 4: in depth of what it was back then, which one

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Speaker 4: hundred percent of course it is. But I also think

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Speaker 4: that that's important to be able to evolve and get

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Speaker 4: better and not just stick with the same process and

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Speaker 4: you know, do the same thing over and over again.

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Speaker 5: It also though brings up like for me, there's a

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Speaker 5: lot of people that have these like established takes that

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Speaker 5: they think that I still believe that I wrote about

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Speaker 5: six years ago when I just don't you know, and

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Speaker 5: sure like the late round QB. Moniker doesn't help. But

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Speaker 5: at the same time, it's like make sure you're always

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Speaker 5: consuming and asking questions aside from just assuming that an

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Speaker 5: analyst is feeling a certain way, but you brought up

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Speaker 5: your background and stuff like I think that that example

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Speaker 5: of the thesis thing was. It makes a ton of

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Speaker 5: sense because and why we clicked when you started at

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Speaker 5: Number Fire. So for background, Brandon was a managing editor

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Speaker 5: at Number Fire and fandle for a really long time

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Speaker 5: under me. You were basically the first like full time

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Speaker 5: employee that I was able to hire and bring on

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Speaker 5: to work for me, and you were such a big

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Speaker 5: help with running the Number Fire editorial and the business

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Speaker 5: and stuff. But we both had the same mindset of that, Like,

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Speaker 5: that was the mindset that we went in with all

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Speaker 5: of our content and that you know, you could talk

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Speaker 5: to the Scott Barretts of the world, and the Grand

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Speaker 5: bar Fields and the Chris Raybonds and all these people

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Speaker 5: who started at Number Fire and you know amazingly or

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Speaker 5: flourishing and doing great work outside of you know, within

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Speaker 5: the space. But one of the things that I think

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Speaker 5: that they would agree on is that, you know, we

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Speaker 5: were very strict with the way that we would say,

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Speaker 5: let the data do the talking, Like, don't have these

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Speaker 5: preconceived notions of what you want to prove, because you

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Speaker 5: will just force the data to say a certain thing. Instead,

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Speaker 5: sometimes you're going to research stuff and it's not going

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Speaker 5: to come out the way that you wanted to come

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Speaker 5: out and you're gonna be frustrated, but you got to

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Speaker 5: kind of trash that you might not be able to

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Speaker 5: write content around that. So I guess my general question

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Speaker 5: is like, how would you just describe yourself as an analyst?

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Speaker 5: I think that people are getting an idea right now,

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Speaker 5: but if you were to sort of sum it up,

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Speaker 5: how would you describe yourself as an analyst? Like what

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Speaker 5: does your filmed analytics ratio look like?

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Speaker 2: Like?

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Speaker 4: How are you looking at this game of fantasy football?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean like a film to analytics ratio probably

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Speaker 2: is if I had to guess, like eighty twenty in

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Speaker 2: terms of the data, and it's probably closer to ninety ten.

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Speaker 2: And I would also even say that ten is maybe

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Speaker 2: not even film. But it's just knowing what I don't know,

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Speaker 2: and like what limitations are with data? And look, I

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Speaker 2: think another reason that we click is like we know

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Speaker 2: that we look at this from a data ens, but

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Speaker 2: we also know that data doesn't capture everything.

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Speaker 3: There's nuance that you.

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Speaker 2: Have to be able to apply and it doesn't always

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Speaker 2: get applied. And I think that's also kind of like

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Speaker 2: I'm not going to fight the fight of like film

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Speaker 2: versus analytics, Like that's not I don't like fights and everything,

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Speaker 2: but I do think that analytics sometimes gets a bad

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Speaker 2: rap because people don't always grasp what good data is

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Speaker 2: and they'll see like the small it's like the joke

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Speaker 2: of on Monday night when it's like forty seven degrees

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Speaker 2: like that, you know, the Steelers do that. It's like

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Speaker 2: that's not yeah, like those are numbers, but like that's

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Speaker 2: not data, and that's not the way that we look

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Speaker 2: at things. Like I just think that there's so much

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Speaker 2: to data that you have to know you don't know,

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Speaker 2: and then you have to be able to look at

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Speaker 2: the right types of data. And the right types of

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Speaker 2: data only emerge when you kind of test things, or

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Speaker 2: at the very least you step back and say, there's

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Speaker 2: a two game sample of a player, you know, playing

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Speaker 2: without the team's wide receiver one. Right, like just let's

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Speaker 2: say simplified, say start the season in week three, when

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Speaker 2: that star receiver comes back. You can't just copy.

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Speaker 3: And paste that, right.

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Speaker 2: You can't look at yards like you have to look

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Speaker 2: at different things. So one of the things speaking to Jim,

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Speaker 2: I'll probably shout him out a couple of times just

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Speaker 2: because he and I have. You know, we did a

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Speaker 2: podcast for a decade together, so we have a lot

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Speaker 2: of the same thoughts on things. I took a lot

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Speaker 2: from him, But one of the things that he always

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Speaker 2: like talks about is the most relevant sample. And that's

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Speaker 2: one of the things that I really took from Jim.

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Speaker 3: Where it's really easy just to.

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Speaker 2: Kind of grab the last five games or the last

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Speaker 2: three games, or the full season. But now in twenty

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Speaker 2: twenty six, I feel like there's a level of maybe

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Speaker 2: that's not the best sample. There's a sample with Jacoby

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Speaker 2: Brissett last year for the Cardinals. That's a different sample

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Speaker 2: than with different quarterbacks. But there's also a sample Jacoby

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Speaker 2: Brissett with Marvin Harrison junior, healthy and active. That's a

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Speaker 2: different sample than looking at the full twenty twenty five

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Speaker 2: Arizona Cardinals season. So for me, yes, I look at data,

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Speaker 2: but there are certain things that I do with data

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Speaker 2: that I think are really important and I don't always

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Speaker 2: see applied. And again I'm like saying that everybody else

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Speaker 2: is wrong. That's not what I'm saying. Where I think,

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Speaker 2: like my my brain goes to is let other people

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Speaker 2: give me information, Like there are literal coach speak trackers,

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Speaker 2: because I don't need to sift through, like I don't

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Speaker 2: need to sift through every interview. I can just let that,

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Speaker 2: do you know that part of things? For me sportsbook data,

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Speaker 2: I can let that do so much heavy lifting. Where

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Speaker 2: do I fit in? It's looking at things that I

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Speaker 2: don't see talked about enough, and for me, it's a

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Speaker 2: lot about regression, expected fantasy points, expected touchdowns, looking at

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Speaker 2: like a you know, I have a model that looks

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Speaker 2: at that stuff on a play level basis. That's where

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Speaker 2: I'm like, I don't see that enough. I see yards,

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Speaker 2: I see market shares, I see yards per route run,

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Speaker 2: I don't see enough usage of like and like it's

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Speaker 2: not super widely available. I get that, and not every

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Speaker 2: expected fantasy points model is the same or expected touchdown

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Speaker 2: model is the same. But that's the type of thing

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Speaker 2: where I'm like, I'm not going to learn more about

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Speaker 2: a team than sportsbooks most likely, Like let me let

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Speaker 2: me take that from them, let me take the coach

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Speaker 2: speak from other people, like where can I fit in?

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Speaker 2: And so I'm always trying to ask questions figure out

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Speaker 2: like where I can go. So, yes, it's about eighty

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Speaker 2: to ninety percent film or sorry, analytics over film, and

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Speaker 2: I don't like I'll watch film a little bit to

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Speaker 2: see if things are get supported. But I think like

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Speaker 2: that other is more knowing what we can't really fully

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Speaker 2: capture and knowing that the data itself is not one

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Speaker 2: hundred percent indicative of what has happened or what's going

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Speaker 2: to happen.

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Speaker 5: I think it's a really important thing to bring up

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Speaker 5: because people who listen to this show, people who log

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Speaker 5: onto Twitter.

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Speaker 4: You know, I've gone on other shows.

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Speaker 5: I tweeted about this a couple weeks ago, or I'll

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Speaker 5: go on another show and I'll talk about I'll get

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Speaker 5: asked about the zapp model or something, and I'll start

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Speaker 5: talking about it, and then the comments on that show

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Speaker 5: are like, why does this guy only talk about his

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Speaker 5: model and analytics?

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Speaker 4: Well, number one, I'm being asked about it.

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Speaker 5: But number two, that's my approach with this stuff, right, Like,

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Speaker 5: that's what I'm trying to bring to the table that

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Speaker 5: isn't out there from other people, right. And I think

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Speaker 5: that part of the problem that we run into when

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Speaker 5: there is disagreement with the way that people are approaching

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Speaker 5: data is that the loudest, most obnoxious people on social

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Speaker 5: media are often not doing the best data analysis. You know,

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Speaker 5: there are so many good data analysts and scientists out

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Speaker 5: there that unfortunately Number one aren't loud enough. But then

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Speaker 5: number two don't know how to market what they're doing

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Speaker 5: well enough, right, And so it's an issue from that

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Speaker 5: perspective where like, there's some really good stuff out there,

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Speaker 5: but then people who oppose it are only seeing like

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Speaker 5: the for lack of better term, idiots out there who

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Speaker 5: are just spewing things because they want to get clicks,

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Speaker 5: you know, when there's so much more nuance to what

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Speaker 5: we're trying to do. And that's why I did want

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Speaker 5: to have this conversation on perspectives. I think this is

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Speaker 5: a good time to do it because we've done now,

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Speaker 5: you know, five six months worth of data work and stuff.

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Speaker 4: I mean, there's a little bit.

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Speaker 5: Of an onboarding period and whatnot, but we have done

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Speaker 5: a lot of that work, and I'm hoping that people

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Speaker 5: can now see that the work that we are doing

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Speaker 5: is thought out and nuanced, and it's not just something

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Speaker 5: that we're throwing out there and saying, hey, we want

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Speaker 5: to make a buck. This is really you know, this

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Speaker 5: is the best metric you've ever seen in your life

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Speaker 5: and this is why you need to use it. That's

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Speaker 5: not what it is about. This is about us literally

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Speaker 5: wanting to create the things that we think are missing

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Speaker 5: in the fantasy space that can help us win in

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Speaker 5: fantasy football. And while understanding that there is nuance to this,

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Speaker 5: that there is this like attention to detail and this

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Speaker 5: context that's needed and stuff like that that often gets

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Speaker 5: missed unfortunately, and that's what gives analysis and analytical analysis

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Speaker 5: a bad name.

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Speaker 4: In the end, I.

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Speaker 3: Gave credit to Jim.

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Speaker 2: I'll give credit to you one thing that you always

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Speaker 2: and this is not because you're you know, my boss again,

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Speaker 2: but one thing I learned from you is it doesn't

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Speaker 2: really matter if you have a model if that model

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Speaker 2: is not better than what exists and in whatever way

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Speaker 2: you're measuring it. And like you can throw out any

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Speaker 2: types of data, but like let's just say, you know,

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Speaker 2: air yards per route run might sound cool, but is

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Speaker 2: better than anything else. I'm sorry if there's like an

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Speaker 2: air yards per route run guy out there.

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Speaker 5: Like no, I mean, like I think I think a

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Speaker 5: great example of that is, like we've seen a lot

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Speaker 5: of and it's interesting data and there could be signal

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Speaker 5: to it, and there could, but I've tested some of it.

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Speaker 4: But like yards per route run.

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Speaker 5: Minus screens for instance, Right, Like, that kind of stuff

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Speaker 5: is not as predictive as you might think because it

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Speaker 5: is intuitive.

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Speaker 4: It makes sense in our brains.

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Speaker 5: But at the same time, you can look at that

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Speaker 5: from the opposite angle and say, well, screens are actually

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Speaker 5: not bad for a player because that's intent and it

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Speaker 5: shows that they're probably good at football and that's still scoring.

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Speaker 5: Like it's like the takeaway their biggest play kind of analysis. Well,

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Speaker 5: that play happened and it's important.

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Speaker 3: And they can make big plays.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, right exactly, it's like part of the allure of

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Speaker 5: that player, right Like, there's just that context that's seen it.

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Speaker 4: But I appreciate the love because I do.

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Speaker 5: Think it's important that if if you're gonna work on

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Speaker 5: something and you're gonna publish something, it be helpful.

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Speaker 4: It's that simple. It shouldn't It shouldn't lead an audience

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Speaker 4: astray where they're now.

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Speaker 5: And look, I've been guilty of publishing things a little

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Speaker 5: bit too early I think, you know, like ideas and

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Speaker 5: theories and I and all that, because I'm kind of

439
00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:17,640
Speaker 5: taking the audience on a journey with me. But then

440
00:21:17,680 --> 00:21:20,000
Speaker 5: I regret that to a degree. Like I remember doing

441
00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:22,840
Speaker 5: the ambiguous RB one theory or something like that. It

442
00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:27,399
Speaker 5: was called where I thought that in ambiguous backfields, the

443
00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:29,680
Speaker 5: the RB one that was drafted was typically the best

444
00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:32,359
Speaker 5: player and the one that exceeded expectation. But I realized

445
00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:34,680
Speaker 5: the sample sizes were too small. It was just not

446
00:21:34,920 --> 00:21:37,560
Speaker 5: the right way to really look at that analysis, and

447
00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:40,000
Speaker 5: so I pivoted off of it. But then again, going

448
00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:42,000
Speaker 5: back to what we were talking about earlier, people stick

449
00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:42,679
Speaker 5: with it and they're like.

450
00:21:42,720 --> 00:21:44,600
Speaker 4: Well, no, we should be drafting the first running back

451
00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:46,600
Speaker 4: and ambiguous backfield and that's not really the case.

452
00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:49,359
Speaker 5: But with all that being said, you built out and

453
00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:52,280
Speaker 5: help build out the ZAP model for tight ends this year,

454
00:21:52,800 --> 00:21:56,560
Speaker 5: and that was a huge ad. You know, we worked

455
00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:59,000
Speaker 5: on that a lot in January and in February, and

456
00:21:59,040 --> 00:22:03,760
Speaker 5: it was a huge ad for the Prospect Guide, Late Round,

457
00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:07,000
Speaker 5: Fantasy Football, all that stuff. And you have a way

458
00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:11,040
Speaker 5: more intimate, you know, understanding of the tight end class

459
00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:13,680
Speaker 5: than I do, because you wrote up all of the prospects.

460
00:22:13,840 --> 00:22:16,080
Speaker 5: I mean, I obviously you know know it, but you

461
00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:19,560
Speaker 5: know it on a very very deep level. And my

462
00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:23,720
Speaker 5: question to start this with the tight ends is Kenyan Sidik.

463
00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:27,040
Speaker 5: Sadiq has a lot of haters out there, like more

464
00:22:27,840 --> 00:22:30,640
Speaker 5: than I anticipated there being. I think more than because

465
00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:33,159
Speaker 5: like I'm more online than you are with some of

466
00:22:33,200 --> 00:22:34,960
Speaker 5: this stuff and like seeing what's going on, what people

467
00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:36,960
Speaker 5: are talking about in the fantasy space and whatnot. And

468
00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:39,280
Speaker 5: I remember like hitting you up and being like, yeah,

469
00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:41,760
Speaker 5: they're saying all and you were like pretty surprised by

470
00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:45,159
Speaker 5: the reaction with Sadik. But what would you say to

471
00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:48,040
Speaker 5: people who may be drafted Sidik in their rookie drafts

472
00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:50,399
Speaker 5: or thinking about drafting them in Best Ball or whatever

473
00:22:50,400 --> 00:22:52,440
Speaker 5: the case may be, to give more of the bowl

474
00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:55,600
Speaker 5: case for Sadik and why the model seems to not

475
00:22:55,720 --> 00:22:56,160
Speaker 5: hate them.

476
00:22:56,520 --> 00:22:56,760
Speaker 3: Yeah.

477
00:22:56,960 --> 00:23:00,760
Speaker 2: It's funny because I was digging in tight ends and

478
00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:03,199
Speaker 2: I was like, Okay, there's there's one guy. He's the

479
00:23:03,280 --> 00:23:07,919
Speaker 2: number one first rounder, Kenyon Sadik. I'm like, yeah, but

480
00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:10,520
Speaker 2: there's some stuff here I'm gonna like be a little

481
00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:12,679
Speaker 2: bit contrary. And I was like, Nope, people hate him

482
00:23:12,680 --> 00:23:15,720
Speaker 2: way more than I do. So now I feel like

483
00:23:15,760 --> 00:23:22,040
Speaker 2: I'm strangely defending a top sixteen, very young, super athletic

484
00:23:22,160 --> 00:23:25,760
Speaker 2: tight end, and it just feels like we maybe lost

485
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:31,439
Speaker 2: the plot with what a fantasy football tight end generally is. Andah,

486
00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:35,240
Speaker 2: I think some of that applies to to Sadik, So

487
00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:36,919
Speaker 2: I'll get into some stuff, but I mean, like the

488
00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:39,879
Speaker 2: case for Sidik is pretty and I mean especially with

489
00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:43,119
Speaker 2: the landing spots like Jets like no thanks, He's total.

490
00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:46,919
Speaker 2: It's like, so it's like there's a lot to like

491
00:23:47,000 --> 00:23:50,240
Speaker 2: about Sidiq if you want to see it that way,

492
00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:52,520
Speaker 2: like if you're really like bearish and you want to

493
00:23:52,560 --> 00:23:55,440
Speaker 2: see it that way, I guess, but I think there's

494
00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:58,800
Speaker 2: a lot more good than bad. Again, if you're calibrated

495
00:23:58,920 --> 00:24:03,440
Speaker 2: with what a fantasy football tight end generally is and

496
00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:06,919
Speaker 2: can be. And I'm about to argue for like Noah

497
00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:10,560
Speaker 2: Fan and Evan Ingram that people probably just don't understand

498
00:24:10,560 --> 00:24:14,359
Speaker 2: about them. But for side, Yeah, like so Sidi top

499
00:24:14,400 --> 00:24:18,280
Speaker 2: sixteen pick that matters. We've had since twenty sixteen, we've

500
00:24:18,280 --> 00:24:21,600
Speaker 2: had eleven first round tight ends in their rookie seasons.

501
00:24:21,920 --> 00:24:22,680
Speaker 3: They've had an.

502
00:24:22,640 --> 00:24:25,440
Speaker 2: Average target share of fifteen point eight percent. So I'm

503
00:24:25,440 --> 00:24:28,480
Speaker 2: a sixteen percent that would be the tight end twenty

504
00:24:28,560 --> 00:24:32,080
Speaker 2: one last year based on the relevant or the games

505
00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:34,879
Speaker 2: that guy's actually played in for contexts like that's not

506
00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:37,159
Speaker 2: going to blow you away. If you look at the

507
00:24:37,200 --> 00:24:42,639
Speaker 2: top sixteen tight ends their target share on average a

508
00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:46,800
Speaker 2: nineteen point six percent since twenty sixteen as a rookie,

509
00:24:46,840 --> 00:24:49,920
Speaker 2: that would be like a tight end ten by target

510
00:24:49,960 --> 00:24:51,639
Speaker 2: share as a rookie.

511
00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:52,360
Speaker 3: Now.

512
00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:54,560
Speaker 2: I talked about this in the Prospect Guide too, but

513
00:24:55,600 --> 00:25:00,399
Speaker 2: Frank Reich historically has been friendly to the position across

514
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:03,600
Speaker 2: ten seasons where he was the team's coordinator or head coach.

515
00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:07,560
Speaker 2: His squad's just just once ranked outside the top twenty

516
00:25:07,760 --> 00:25:10,240
Speaker 2: and tight end target share they were top five four

517
00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:15,120
Speaker 2: different times. And like, you don't draft Kenyon Sadiq sixteenth

518
00:25:15,200 --> 00:25:21,080
Speaker 2: overall to treat him like a eight percent target share guy.

519
00:25:21,320 --> 00:25:26,000
Speaker 2: If they do okay, then sure, but even the like

520
00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:28,000
Speaker 2: on the low end, like that's like the low end

521
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:32,439
Speaker 2: for like the late round one picks about a borderline

522
00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:35,000
Speaker 2: like ten percent target share as a rookie. I just

523
00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:38,200
Speaker 2: don't see that being the case for Sadik. It just

524
00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:41,920
Speaker 2: seems like people also are holding his competition against him,

525
00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:47,359
Speaker 2: or maybe don't fully like look into his competition, but

526
00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:49,480
Speaker 2: you know, there are a lot of guys have competition.

527
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:53,320
Speaker 2: I get it, But he played with Terence Ferguson, who's

528
00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:57,439
Speaker 2: probably a very good tight end as we'll learn, maybe not,

529
00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:01,640
Speaker 2: but on paper he should be very good. Tees Johnson,

530
00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:06,080
Speaker 2: Troy Franklin, Bucky Irving, Jamari Johnson is projected to be

531
00:26:06,160 --> 00:26:08,240
Speaker 2: a first rounder next year, and he's a tight end.

532
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:12,840
Speaker 2: Like Sadik, had a lot of competition and whenever the

533
00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:17,680
Speaker 2: Ducks just lost a lot of that competition. From twenty

534
00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:20,560
Speaker 2: twenty three to twenty twenty four, Sadik got more involved,

535
00:26:20,560 --> 00:26:23,240
Speaker 2: but he played behind Ferguson. There were three receivers with

536
00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:28,520
Speaker 2: over six hundred yards and then lost more gave him

537
00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:31,800
Speaker 2: more opportunity, and then he set Oregon's single season tight

538
00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:35,359
Speaker 2: end record in receptions. He played with his third quarterback

539
00:26:35,400 --> 00:26:37,959
Speaker 2: in his many seasons, and like we're in this new

540
00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:42,040
Speaker 2: NFL landscape where we saw Marlon Klein go fifty ninth

541
00:26:42,080 --> 00:26:47,000
Speaker 2: overall to the Texans. And for anybody who doesn't know,

542
00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:51,040
Speaker 2: he played behind Holston Loveland, who's like a probably a

543
00:26:51,080 --> 00:26:55,439
Speaker 2: generational tight end prospect and a J Barner Luke spoon maker.

544
00:26:56,800 --> 00:26:58,600
Speaker 2: He had thirty eight career catches in a touchdown.

545
00:26:58,600 --> 00:26:59,840
Speaker 3: I think we're like entering.

546
00:26:59,600 --> 00:27:06,720
Speaker 2: This territory where NFL coaches and staffs are like, tight

547
00:27:06,800 --> 00:27:11,160
Speaker 2: end is this new, fun, interesting position, but it's also

548
00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:14,639
Speaker 2: multiple positions in one and like they might look at

549
00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:17,120
Speaker 2: a player and be like, why was this guy blocking?

550
00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:20,280
Speaker 2: Why didn't they get him more involved a running back

551
00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:23,080
Speaker 2: and receiver, Like you're generally like, if you're not getting

552
00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:28,000
Speaker 2: the ball, there's probably a reason. Yes, some running backs

553
00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:32,960
Speaker 2: are phenomenal pass blockers, some receivers are great run blockers.

554
00:27:33,560 --> 00:27:37,760
Speaker 2: But like, tight end is this weird hybrid position where

555
00:27:37,920 --> 00:27:42,159
Speaker 2: one coaching staff in college might view it differently, and

556
00:27:42,200 --> 00:27:45,000
Speaker 2: then we see like Houston, they probably think that Marlon

557
00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:47,840
Speaker 2: Klein has a lot of potential to be used in

558
00:27:47,880 --> 00:27:52,560
Speaker 2: a way that he wasn't in college. And it's not

559
00:27:52,680 --> 00:27:56,280
Speaker 2: even like I'm making the case for Marlin Klein so

560
00:27:56,320 --> 00:28:00,359
Speaker 2: that I can say Kenyan Sadik was productive. It's not

561
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:03,520
Speaker 2: like he didn't have production. It just took him three

562
00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:07,080
Speaker 2: years and now he got drafted just after turning twenty one,

563
00:28:08,119 --> 00:28:11,399
Speaker 2: and like all of this is a positive. In the

564
00:28:11,480 --> 00:28:14,240
Speaker 2: Zapp Model database, there have been six first round tight

565
00:28:14,359 --> 00:28:16,640
Speaker 2: ends younger than twenty one and a half at draft time.

566
00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:21,640
Speaker 2: Brock Bauers, Kyle Pitts, Poston Loveland, Eric Ebron, Noah Fan,

567
00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:24,320
Speaker 2: and David and Joku. All of them had a peak

568
00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:27,120
Speaker 2: year within their first three NFL seasons with at least

569
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:29,159
Speaker 2: nine PPR points per game. And I think this is

570
00:28:29,200 --> 00:28:33,919
Speaker 2: where this all lands. It's like, what is a good

571
00:28:34,359 --> 00:28:35,919
Speaker 2: tight end outcome for people?

572
00:28:36,359 --> 00:28:37,240
Speaker 3: If it's just.

573
00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:43,160
Speaker 2: Cherry picking George Kittle and Rob Gronkowski and like Peak

574
00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:47,120
Speaker 2: more and like Morgan Andrews his like Peak wasn't even sustained,

575
00:28:48,080 --> 00:28:52,840
Speaker 2: is theirs? Like if you're looking for fifteen plus, you

576
00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:55,640
Speaker 2: know PPR points per game for tight ends, you just

577
00:28:55,640 --> 00:29:00,200
Speaker 2: don't see it very often. You're basically cherry picking the best.

578
00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 2: So Sidiq in the in the model, the Zapp model

579
00:29:03,800 --> 00:29:06,840
Speaker 2: gets comped to Noah Fant. Noah Fan was a top

580
00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:09,200
Speaker 2: ten tight end in two of his first three seasons.

581
00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:12,320
Speaker 2: He gets comped to Evan Ingram. Ingram was a top

582
00:29:12,400 --> 00:29:15,080
Speaker 2: seven tight end in all three of his first three years.

583
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:17,760
Speaker 2: They just didn't score a lot of touchdowns as well,

584
00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:19,800
Speaker 2: but both were top nine. If you go back to

585
00:29:19,840 --> 00:29:23,040
Speaker 2: twenty eleven and look at a player's first three years,

586
00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:26,080
Speaker 2: they were both top nine among tight ends drafted in

587
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:29,880
Speaker 2: that span in yardage. It's just like, there they're the

588
00:29:30,000 --> 00:29:34,480
Speaker 2: tier below Kittle, McBride Andrews. It's like, that is a

589
00:29:34,520 --> 00:29:40,160
Speaker 2: good outcome. It's not the elite like outlier outcome. This

590
00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:43,080
Speaker 2: is all good production. I think people just like are like,

591
00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:45,680
Speaker 2: if you're not brock Bauers, you're just the guy. That's

592
00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:46,720
Speaker 2: kind of what it feels like.

593
00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:51,280
Speaker 5: Yes, yes, I agree. And part of the problem is

594
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:54,640
Speaker 5: exactly that. And it's like when I published the rank

595
00:29:54,760 --> 00:29:57,719
Speaker 5: like rookie rankings and Kenyan sidek has a really good

596
00:29:57,800 --> 00:29:59,560
Speaker 5: ZAP score, and then people are like, well, why is

597
00:29:59,560 --> 00:30:03,000
Speaker 5: he ranked low Casey Concepcione for instance. Well, the reason

598
00:30:03,040 --> 00:30:04,960
Speaker 5: for that is because the position, like you just said,

599
00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:08,280
Speaker 5: is not giving you as much value in fantasy football

600
00:30:08,280 --> 00:30:09,520
Speaker 5: as wide receiver will give you.

601
00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:11,360
Speaker 4: It doesn't mean, though that.

602
00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 5: The score within the position, because it's in the context

603
00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:17,600
Speaker 5: of other tight ends, is what that ZAP score says.

604
00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:20,600
Speaker 5: That doesn't mean that he's bad within the position. He's

605
00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:23,520
Speaker 5: actually very good within the position. It's just that when

606
00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:26,560
Speaker 5: we look back and because obviously we rebuilt the tight

607
00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 5: end ZAP model, and we can look back and see

608
00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:34,240
Speaker 5: who has perfect scores, and it's brock Bowers, it's Kyle Pitts,

609
00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:36,640
Speaker 5: Colson Lovelin I think had a score of one hundred

610
00:30:36,720 --> 00:30:39,520
Speaker 5: in the newest one. Are those the three that had

611
00:30:39,680 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 5: I think, yeah, yeah, And it's like all three of them.

612
00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:45,440
Speaker 5: You know, Kyle Pitts has hit bumps in the road,

613
00:30:45,480 --> 00:30:48,080
Speaker 5: but like even his output is way better than what

614
00:30:48,160 --> 00:30:52,360
Speaker 5: anyone should realistically like from an expectation standpoint, He's still

615
00:30:52,760 --> 00:30:55,880
Speaker 5: done very very well in fantasy football. It's just that

616
00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:58,960
Speaker 5: I think tight end has had this really weird perception

617
00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:03,600
Speaker 5: problem because understandably in season long, I mean in fantasy

618
00:31:03,600 --> 00:31:06,840
Speaker 5: in general, we really should be chasing high end tight

619
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:09,400
Speaker 5: ends like that's because those are the difference makers, those

620
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:11,800
Speaker 5: are the ones that truly do matter. But I think

621
00:31:11,840 --> 00:31:13,560
Speaker 5: that if you're looking at this class and you're saying,

622
00:31:13,760 --> 00:31:17,840
Speaker 5: who has an opportunity at some chance to be that guy,

623
00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:20,680
Speaker 5: it's him, and then it's Eli Stowers probably is the

624
00:31:20,680 --> 00:31:24,480
Speaker 5: other one. But you know, Eli Stowers has generally been

625
00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 5: that tight end two in this class. The real question,

626
00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 5: I think starts a tight end three. Do you have

627
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:34,080
Speaker 5: a tight end three? Now the ZAP model. Here's the

628
00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:36,000
Speaker 5: other thing too, is that when we do our rankings,

629
00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:37,440
Speaker 5: it's not going to be one to one of the

630
00:31:37,480 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 5: ZAP model, especially for lower tiered players, like the higher

631
00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:46,000
Speaker 5: tiered ones will generally align with because those guys have

632
00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:49,000
Speaker 5: separated themselves enough to say, Okay, we do feel pretty

633
00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:50,600
Speaker 5: confident that they're better than the rep.

634
00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:52,480
Speaker 4: But when it comes to like a ZAP.

635
00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:55,280
Speaker 5: Score of fifty or forty or whatever the case may be,

636
00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:58,520
Speaker 5: we're talking about lower tiered players that are more flex

637
00:31:58,560 --> 00:32:01,280
Speaker 5: plays at best in fantasy football, and so we're gonna

638
00:32:01,360 --> 00:32:03,920
Speaker 5: let situation and stuff and some of the stuff that

639
00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:07,680
Speaker 5: we more subjectively like dictate where we might rank these guys. So,

640
00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:11,960
Speaker 5: as someone yourself, having written and analyzed all these tight

641
00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:15,040
Speaker 5: end prospects, I know that Stours is the two for you,

642
00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:16,800
Speaker 5: But who is the three?

643
00:32:16,840 --> 00:32:18,520
Speaker 4: Who's the third best tight end of this class? Do

644
00:32:18,520 --> 00:32:19,520
Speaker 4: you think this.

645
00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:23,360
Speaker 2: Is a really difficult one, not because there aren't options,

646
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:29,200
Speaker 2: but because of where Max Claire went. I still think,

647
00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:32,640
Speaker 2: like Chips down, I'm looking at at a rookie draft,

648
00:32:33,080 --> 00:32:35,800
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go Max Claire as tight end three.

649
00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:38,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, he led this. He leads this.

650
00:32:38,640 --> 00:32:42,560
Speaker 2: Class in breakout score, super predictive at receiver, still pretty

651
00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:47,520
Speaker 2: predictive at tight end, and whenever you lead again, sort

652
00:32:47,520 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 2: of a generational top of the first half. You know,

653
00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:56,400
Speaker 2: talent in Kenyon sidek. Everybody's favorite Eli Stowers fantasy football.

654
00:32:56,560 --> 00:32:58,520
Speaker 2: Just like, no, no, he's the tight end one. It's

655
00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:02,120
Speaker 2: like the NFL doesn't see it that way. Max Claire

656
00:33:02,400 --> 00:33:05,160
Speaker 2: still has draft capital, and like, yes, he's got a

657
00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:07,960
Speaker 2: bit of a crowded tight end room right now. But

658
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:10,000
Speaker 2: I think that if I had to sort of just

659
00:33:10,440 --> 00:33:13,720
Speaker 2: bet on one of these other guys, the safest bet

660
00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:16,280
Speaker 2: with a path to like, no, this guy had like

661
00:33:16,400 --> 00:33:20,560
Speaker 2: multiple top six tight end seasons would be Max Claire.

662
00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:25,160
Speaker 2: He was very productive at Purdue, then he transferred to

663
00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:27,560
Speaker 2: Ohio State, was a little bit less productive, but he

664
00:33:27,600 --> 00:33:32,719
Speaker 2: played alongside Jeremi Smith, Cardel Tate. Obviously Will Kasmerk another

665
00:33:32,760 --> 00:33:35,360
Speaker 2: tight end who was drafted eighty seventh overall.

666
00:33:35,440 --> 00:33:36,320
Speaker 3: He was more of a run.

667
00:33:36,200 --> 00:33:39,640
Speaker 2: Blocker, but like a lot of competition at Ohio State

668
00:33:40,120 --> 00:33:42,760
Speaker 2: was he was third in receptions behind Smith and Tate,

669
00:33:42,880 --> 00:33:45,479
Speaker 2: and like, yeah, he didn't have as good of a

670
00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:49,680
Speaker 2: market share, you know, just sort of high end output

671
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:52,120
Speaker 2: as he did at Purdue, but like he was still

672
00:33:52,160 --> 00:33:55,600
Speaker 2: relevant at Ohio State, and so now I think you

673
00:33:55,640 --> 00:33:59,600
Speaker 2: put him on a RAMS team. It's a very good system.

674
00:34:00,560 --> 00:34:03,320
Speaker 2: Hopefully like matth you know, they got their quarterback in

675
00:34:03,320 --> 00:34:05,680
Speaker 2: the future too, I guess, so this should be a

676
00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:09,320
Speaker 2: good infrastructure for Claire, who I think could very easily

677
00:34:09,360 --> 00:34:12,920
Speaker 2: turn into the tight end three like by a good margin.

678
00:34:13,000 --> 00:34:15,839
Speaker 2: Because there's there's a lot to like about all these

679
00:34:15,840 --> 00:34:18,880
Speaker 2: other tight ends, but there are kind of reasons why

680
00:34:18,920 --> 00:34:22,799
Speaker 2: they didn't stand out like Claire did. Claire kind of

681
00:34:22,840 --> 00:34:25,759
Speaker 2: has that like he's got some Mark Andrews to him

682
00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:30,560
Speaker 2: and like again, just like you go back, most most

683
00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:35,000
Speaker 2: of the high end performers weren't first rounders. Like it

684
00:34:35,080 --> 00:34:39,279
Speaker 2: takes the right situation, the right the right scheme to me,

685
00:34:39,400 --> 00:34:42,480
Speaker 2: I think Max Claire long term has the highest sort

686
00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:47,680
Speaker 2: of probability of hitting and giving us multiple like producible

687
00:34:48,120 --> 00:34:51,280
Speaker 2: tight end like top six seasons among this class outside

688
00:34:51,320 --> 00:34:51,919
Speaker 2: of the top two.

689
00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:54,080
Speaker 5: We also have to be open minded about, like we

690
00:34:54,160 --> 00:34:57,040
Speaker 5: both like Terrence Ferguson, but there's also definitely an out

691
00:34:57,040 --> 00:34:58,839
Speaker 5: where he just doesn't hit, like he has to get

692
00:34:58,840 --> 00:35:00,880
Speaker 5: better as a blocker, he to do more like he

693
00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:03,640
Speaker 5: there's improvement that needs to be done with Terrence Ferguson

694
00:35:03,719 --> 00:35:06,480
Speaker 5: that I think when you look at his profile.

695
00:35:06,120 --> 00:35:09,759
Speaker 4: Versus Max Claire's. For instance, Claire.

696
00:35:09,960 --> 00:35:14,160
Speaker 5: Looks like a more well rounded tight end, whereas Ferguson

697
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:18,000
Speaker 5: looks like the Darren Waller ceiling play, you know, like

698
00:35:18,120 --> 00:35:21,840
Speaker 5: the like could actually break fantasy football potentially, whereas Claire,

699
00:35:21,920 --> 00:35:24,760
Speaker 5: like you said, is like the Andrews, like like maybe

700
00:35:24,760 --> 00:35:27,000
Speaker 5: not the Kittle outcome or something like that, but like

701
00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:30,920
Speaker 5: a very very you know, solid, way above average type outcome.

702
00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:35,200
Speaker 2: And there are so many names and profiles in the

703
00:35:35,280 --> 00:35:38,200
Speaker 2: Zapp model at tight end built on man, if this

704
00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:41,959
Speaker 2: guy hits, lookout and it's like they don't always hit. Yeah,

705
00:35:42,000 --> 00:35:45,360
Speaker 2: And that's that's not to put anybody in that particular bucket,

706
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:49,080
Speaker 2: like Ferguson in that bucket, But tight end's this weird combination.

707
00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:52,719
Speaker 2: Like some teams want you to block more or make

708
00:35:52,760 --> 00:35:53,960
Speaker 2: sure you can block before.

709
00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:55,399
Speaker 3: You get on the field. Some teams are like, we're

710
00:35:55,400 --> 00:35:56,960
Speaker 3: just gonna make you big slot receiver.

711
00:35:57,360 --> 00:35:57,600
Speaker 4: Yeah.

712
00:35:57,600 --> 00:36:00,920
Speaker 2: And I think that Max Claire brings enough, just like

713
00:36:01,160 --> 00:36:03,920
Speaker 2: safety to an offense that he could be like a

714
00:36:04,280 --> 00:36:07,160
Speaker 2: low like a high floor kind of play and in

715
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:09,560
Speaker 2: a good scoring season, he's like a you know, top

716
00:36:09,560 --> 00:36:10,200
Speaker 2: three tight end.

717
00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:10,520
Speaker 3: Yeah.

718
00:36:10,560 --> 00:36:13,200
Speaker 5: Down the line, any sleeper tight ends from the class,

719
00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:15,520
Speaker 5: because that's something that because basically you get to like

720
00:36:15,520 --> 00:36:17,920
Speaker 5: the round five, round six, and rookie drafts right now,

721
00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:19,839
Speaker 5: and you're only looking at tight ends for the most

722
00:36:19,840 --> 00:36:22,040
Speaker 5: part because the running back and wide receiver classes are

723
00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:22,479
Speaker 5: so weak.

724
00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:24,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it kind of depends. I see a

725
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:28,839
Speaker 2: lot of like there's still generally a big three at

726
00:36:28,840 --> 00:36:31,560
Speaker 2: tight end, with Claire usually being the tight end three

727
00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:34,880
Speaker 2: in most rankings, and then it's like, what's truly a sleeper,

728
00:36:35,760 --> 00:36:38,040
Speaker 2: So I'll give some like shallower ones, but then also

729
00:36:38,080 --> 00:36:40,680
Speaker 2: two deeper cuts. I do want to shout out Oscar Delp.

730
00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:44,120
Speaker 2: He's a tight end seven on keep trade cut, so

731
00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:46,200
Speaker 2: I would assume he counts for this, but great athlete,

732
00:36:46,239 --> 00:36:48,120
Speaker 2: he's gonna get to play half of it. I guess

733
00:36:48,160 --> 00:36:50,480
Speaker 2: over half of his games to play the Falcons indoors

734
00:36:51,160 --> 00:36:54,239
Speaker 2: sub four five second forty yard dashes pro day and

735
00:36:54,280 --> 00:36:56,920
Speaker 2: even adjusting that like he for you know, slow it

736
00:36:56,920 --> 00:36:58,799
Speaker 2: down a little bit. He's got the second best height

737
00:36:58,800 --> 00:37:01,600
Speaker 2: adjusted speed score in the CLA. It's a pretty old

738
00:37:01,640 --> 00:37:03,600
Speaker 2: tight end room in New Orleans, and I think there's

739
00:37:03,719 --> 00:37:06,319
Speaker 2: like a good opening for Delp long term to kind

740
00:37:06,320 --> 00:37:10,080
Speaker 2: of be maybe that like Kittle type where it's like, hey,

741
00:37:10,080 --> 00:37:12,040
Speaker 2: this guy into a ton in college, by the way,

742
00:37:12,080 --> 00:37:15,120
Speaker 2: played behind brock Bauers, and like, you know, had some

743
00:37:15,160 --> 00:37:18,680
Speaker 2: competition there. So I would say delp and then for

744
00:37:18,719 --> 00:37:21,920
Speaker 2: another shallow want to shout out Eli rahadon who I

745
00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:22,399
Speaker 2: think you.

746
00:37:22,280 --> 00:37:23,400
Speaker 3: Have as the tight end three.

747
00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:26,040
Speaker 2: I do, but he's he's outside the top five in

748
00:37:26,040 --> 00:37:29,359
Speaker 2: consensus ranks on Fantasy pros, so maybe people aren't taking

749
00:37:29,400 --> 00:37:33,120
Speaker 2: him that seriously. But productive, like efficient receiver. Didn't score

750
00:37:33,120 --> 00:37:35,759
Speaker 2: a lot of touchdowns though, had some injuries, but I

751
00:37:35,800 --> 00:37:38,000
Speaker 2: think he could morph into like kind of a bit

752
00:37:38,000 --> 00:37:40,240
Speaker 2: of a difference maker. But as far as like true

753
00:37:40,280 --> 00:37:42,319
Speaker 2: sleepers go, I think this is probably more of what

754
00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:46,840
Speaker 2: you're you're looking for. Tanner coziol I would say he

755
00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:49,279
Speaker 2: was the It's like, it's not it's not often that

756
00:37:49,320 --> 00:37:52,400
Speaker 2: you're looking at the second tight end drafted on a team.

757
00:37:53,000 --> 00:37:56,000
Speaker 2: But like Tanner cooziol is more of the fantasy friendly

758
00:37:56,080 --> 00:37:59,480
Speaker 2: tight end drafted by the Jaguars. Compared to Nate Borkicher,

759
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:02,799
Speaker 2: Nate Orchature, he was like a name that I was like,

760
00:38:02,840 --> 00:38:05,759
Speaker 2: this guy's like a third round like mock draft pick

761
00:38:05,840 --> 00:38:09,160
Speaker 2: pretty much everywhere. I'm like, why, Yeah, like the receiving

762
00:38:09,239 --> 00:38:11,239
Speaker 2: data is not there. I'm like, he's just got the

763
00:38:11,280 --> 00:38:14,160
Speaker 2: blockings there. You kind of watch some film. I did

764
00:38:14,200 --> 00:38:17,240
Speaker 2: watch film on these guys like that. That's I wouldn't

765
00:38:17,480 --> 00:38:20,280
Speaker 2: really count that as my my process, my general process

766
00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:22,120
Speaker 2: for fantasy football, but I did watch a lot more

767
00:38:22,160 --> 00:38:26,040
Speaker 2: film for these prospects. It's like, Okay, I get it.

768
00:38:26,080 --> 00:38:28,160
Speaker 2: But Tanner Cozio one of my favorite kind of like

769
00:38:28,520 --> 00:38:31,600
Speaker 2: stats from this class was Tanner Coozio led two different

770
00:38:31,640 --> 00:38:34,120
Speaker 2: offenses and back to back years in receptions at ball

771
00:38:34,200 --> 00:38:37,560
Speaker 2: State and then at Houston, really really good breakout score

772
00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:39,719
Speaker 2: max yards per team attempt, both above the eighty fifth

773
00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:42,799
Speaker 2: percentile within the model. Like I think that there's a

774
00:38:42,880 --> 00:38:47,480
Speaker 2: chance that he just sort of plays like a nice role.

775
00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:50,480
Speaker 2: I know there's Brenton Strange there. I know Borkichure should

776
00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:52,239
Speaker 2: be on the field, like Borchardure is gonna be on

777
00:38:52,320 --> 00:38:54,560
Speaker 2: those guys. I get up my snap grid each week,

778
00:38:54,640 --> 00:38:57,480
Speaker 2: it's like played, you know, seventy percent of the snaps,

779
00:38:57,520 --> 00:38:59,760
Speaker 2: but I didn't see a target. Again, I think Cozy

780
00:39:00,200 --> 00:39:02,880
Speaker 2: has a chance to morph into something. And then the

781
00:39:03,440 --> 00:39:07,880
Speaker 2: real sleeper probably is Michael Trigg, undrafted free agent to

782
00:39:07,920 --> 00:39:12,960
Speaker 2: the Cowboys had off field concerns, but some sources, some

783
00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:15,400
Speaker 2: mock drafters had him as the tight end two. And

784
00:39:15,480 --> 00:39:18,160
Speaker 2: I understand why. Like when you look at the film,

785
00:39:18,200 --> 00:39:21,600
Speaker 2: you're like, oh, yeah, I see the place he's making

786
00:39:21,920 --> 00:39:23,680
Speaker 2: the same place you'd see on red zone or a

787
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:26,799
Speaker 2: highlight reel. It's like he's making catches, run after the

788
00:39:26,840 --> 00:39:30,400
Speaker 2: catch kind of stuff. Offield concerns. Not the most complete blocker,

789
00:39:30,600 --> 00:39:34,920
Speaker 2: but he also had the unfortunate pro day vertical of

790
00:39:35,000 --> 00:39:36,600
Speaker 2: twenty seven and a half inches, but he was dealing

791
00:39:36,600 --> 00:39:39,640
Speaker 2: with the hamstring. Apparently there's a lot for him to

792
00:39:39,680 --> 00:39:44,280
Speaker 2: overcome being an undrafted free agent, but there's a lot

793
00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:46,919
Speaker 2: of potential for Michael Trigg. And I think if you're

794
00:39:46,960 --> 00:39:51,840
Speaker 2: like looking at it just a late round pick in

795
00:39:51,960 --> 00:39:56,000
Speaker 2: a rookie draft or he just kind of floats there,

796
00:39:56,160 --> 00:39:59,759
Speaker 2: I think he's actually he might be the tight end three.

797
00:40:00,040 --> 00:40:03,719
Speaker 2: On where is he on keep trade cut. He's up

798
00:40:03,760 --> 00:40:07,000
Speaker 2: there as far as rookie tight ends go. He's the

799
00:40:07,040 --> 00:40:09,800
Speaker 2: tight end four. So I don't know where he actually

800
00:40:09,840 --> 00:40:12,200
Speaker 2: shape up, But like people probably already had their their

801
00:40:12,320 --> 00:40:14,839
Speaker 2: rookie drafts, like keep an eye on Michael Trigg.

802
00:40:14,880 --> 00:40:17,800
Speaker 5: I'll just say that yeah, yeah, I mean the drafts

803
00:40:17,800 --> 00:40:21,040
Speaker 5: that I've done, he's been you know, bought last round

804
00:40:21,080 --> 00:40:24,480
Speaker 5: type pick, So that's a good call. Like him and

805
00:40:24,680 --> 00:40:27,040
Speaker 5: John Michael Gillenborg have been the two that I've thrown

806
00:40:27,120 --> 00:40:30,319
Speaker 5: darts at at tight end, just because with John Michael

807
00:40:30,320 --> 00:40:33,719
Speaker 5: Gillenborg you got an interesting situation in Kansas City. And

808
00:40:33,760 --> 00:40:37,440
Speaker 5: then obviously the athletic profile is pretty good. Production profile

809
00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:40,080
Speaker 5: even when adjusted is still fine enough, you know, justine

810
00:40:40,120 --> 00:40:42,359
Speaker 5: for program and stuff. So I like the call out

811
00:40:42,400 --> 00:40:44,479
Speaker 5: a lot as a bit of a teaser. You've also

812
00:40:44,520 --> 00:40:47,640
Speaker 5: been doing some research on on offensive coordinators for the

813
00:40:47,920 --> 00:40:50,440
Speaker 5: Late Round newsletter, which, by the way, guys subscribe to

814
00:40:50,480 --> 00:40:52,320
Speaker 5: the newsletter lateround dot com.

815
00:40:52,400 --> 00:40:53,520
Speaker 4: It's absolutely free.

816
00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:57,160
Speaker 5: Brandon's doing basically an article every week in there, all

817
00:40:57,320 --> 00:41:00,799
Speaker 5: very heavily researched, really interesting stuff, so check it out.

818
00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:02,600
Speaker 5: Just go to lateround dot com sign up for free

819
00:41:02,600 --> 00:41:05,560
Speaker 5: for the newsletter. But you're doing some work on offensive coordinators,

820
00:41:05,640 --> 00:41:08,560
Speaker 5: and so my question to you is which coordinator shift

821
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:11,319
Speaker 5: do you think could result in the best turnaround for

822
00:41:11,360 --> 00:41:12,279
Speaker 5: an offensive Yeah.

823
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:15,799
Speaker 2: I'll be pedantic here because like turnarounds the key term.

824
00:41:16,120 --> 00:41:19,279
Speaker 2: I think that honestly, if that wasn't the way you

825
00:41:19,280 --> 00:41:21,719
Speaker 2: phrased it. I might honestly just shout out, like Drew

826
00:41:21,719 --> 00:41:24,239
Speaker 2: pettsing with the Lions and say, maybe this team just

827
00:41:24,239 --> 00:41:25,879
Speaker 2: throws a ton and we get like an all time

828
00:41:25,920 --> 00:41:29,200
Speaker 2: PPR season by Jamior Gibbs. But I think it's really

829
00:41:29,200 --> 00:41:32,239
Speaker 2: hard and I know you'll, you'll, everyone's gonna be on

830
00:41:32,239 --> 00:41:32,680
Speaker 2: board with this.

831
00:41:32,800 --> 00:41:34,840
Speaker 3: But Mike McDaniel with the Chargers.

832
00:41:35,320 --> 00:41:38,640
Speaker 2: It's just it's such like an easy call that I

833
00:41:38,680 --> 00:41:42,160
Speaker 2: still don't know is being fully like sort of applied,

834
00:41:42,800 --> 00:41:47,880
Speaker 2: like in terms of just overall sentiment with the Chargers

835
00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:49,799
Speaker 2: and in best ball drafts that I'm doing, I feel

836
00:41:49,800 --> 00:41:54,080
Speaker 2: like the hype hasn't really been there yet. But and like, yeah, turnaround,

837
00:41:54,200 --> 00:41:56,080
Speaker 2: it's not like the Charger were terrible, but they were

838
00:41:56,120 --> 00:41:59,640
Speaker 2: below average and EPA per play last year. The ceiling

839
00:41:59,719 --> 00:42:02,680
Speaker 2: just as like probably the number one offense, which is

840
00:42:02,680 --> 00:42:05,400
Speaker 2: what McDaniel had in twenty twenty three with the Dolphins.

841
00:42:05,440 --> 00:42:07,880
Speaker 2: He's now got all the weapons in the world, including

842
00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:11,440
Speaker 2: Justin Herbert, and I just want to say, like the Chargers,

843
00:42:11,480 --> 00:42:14,040
Speaker 2: they were middle of the pack and explosive plays last season.

844
00:42:14,640 --> 00:42:17,680
Speaker 2: Herbert was like average in an average depth of target

845
00:42:17,760 --> 00:42:22,000
Speaker 2: so a DOT. But like these these last two seasons

846
00:42:22,239 --> 00:42:24,640
Speaker 2: for Miami, like to a tongo Ba though has just

847
00:42:25,440 --> 00:42:28,279
Speaker 2: not pushed the ball downfield at all. He's been at

848
00:42:28,320 --> 00:42:31,040
Speaker 2: least a yard or more worse than the league average

849
00:42:31,080 --> 00:42:35,480
Speaker 2: in a DOT the last two years. Like it, I

850
00:42:35,520 --> 00:42:39,279
Speaker 2: think that there's still and like Miami kind of was

851
00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:43,680
Speaker 2: still efficient ish despite to me having like a big

852
00:42:43,920 --> 00:42:48,959
Speaker 2: question mark at quarterback. And so it's like I think, yeah,

853
00:42:49,120 --> 00:42:52,359
Speaker 2: it's like I think the luster might be off. It's like, oh,

854
00:42:52,560 --> 00:42:55,160
Speaker 2: you know, teams figured out all the motion all this.

855
00:42:55,320 --> 00:42:58,680
Speaker 2: It's like, I don't think that they were really a

856
00:42:58,719 --> 00:43:01,120
Speaker 2: fully complete offense, and I think that they would have

857
00:43:01,120 --> 00:43:04,680
Speaker 2: been a lot worse with somebody else there. And it's

858
00:43:04,680 --> 00:43:07,680
Speaker 2: not like the Chargers didn't use motion or anything last year,

859
00:43:07,760 --> 00:43:10,120
Speaker 2: but they didn't get the most out of it. There

860
00:43:10,120 --> 00:43:13,600
Speaker 2: are EPA numbers when using motion were not where you'd

861
00:43:13,600 --> 00:43:15,520
Speaker 2: want it to be. I just think that from an

862
00:43:15,600 --> 00:43:18,400
Speaker 2: upside case, going from sort of a I mean there

863
00:43:18,400 --> 00:43:20,440
Speaker 2: were twentieth in points per game last year twenty one

864
00:43:20,440 --> 00:43:24,360
Speaker 2: point eight. To turn that around to the top five offense,

865
00:43:24,440 --> 00:43:26,359
Speaker 2: I think that that's like a very simple thing if

866
00:43:26,360 --> 00:43:28,200
Speaker 2: you look at their average imply team total based on

867
00:43:28,280 --> 00:43:31,399
Speaker 2: DraftKings Sportsbook odds, it's twenty three point eight points per game,

868
00:43:31,400 --> 00:43:34,040
Speaker 2: which is eleventh. It's been within a half point of

869
00:43:34,080 --> 00:43:37,160
Speaker 2: being a top eight offense right there. They have some

870
00:43:37,200 --> 00:43:39,160
Speaker 2: schedule issues though, which I think is also part of it.

871
00:43:39,200 --> 00:43:42,000
Speaker 2: They played four teams coming off of a buy, which

872
00:43:42,040 --> 00:43:43,880
Speaker 2: isn't great. That's tied for the most in the league,

873
00:43:44,000 --> 00:43:46,520
Speaker 2: so that could also be kind of factored into that

874
00:43:46,560 --> 00:43:48,360
Speaker 2: a little bit. But I think that they're very close

875
00:43:48,400 --> 00:43:51,080
Speaker 2: here to being a top five offense, and there's a

876
00:43:51,120 --> 00:43:53,680
Speaker 2: lot of ways you can get exposure to this team.

877
00:43:53,719 --> 00:43:56,080
Speaker 2: But I know you like the Chargers as well.

878
00:43:56,560 --> 00:43:57,760
Speaker 4: Oh yeah, super super.

879
00:43:57,800 --> 00:43:59,840
Speaker 5: I feel like I've been talking about the Chargers, you know,

880
00:44:00,360 --> 00:44:02,960
Speaker 5: for weeks on the show and such. But it's important

881
00:44:02,960 --> 00:44:06,160
Speaker 5: to call out this is to hear from someone else's voice,

882
00:44:06,160 --> 00:44:08,640
Speaker 5: in someone else's mind, who's studying this stuff is in

883
00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:13,879
Speaker 5: just as much detail. Which coordinator, though, on the opposite end,

884
00:44:14,560 --> 00:44:15,160
Speaker 5: scares you.

885
00:44:15,440 --> 00:44:17,160
Speaker 2: This one could be a little bit of a cop out,

886
00:44:17,160 --> 00:44:18,440
Speaker 2: but I wanted to look at a team that I

887
00:44:18,480 --> 00:44:23,160
Speaker 2: think we have some good expectations for who they just

888
00:44:23,239 --> 00:44:25,719
Speaker 2: might not be as efficient as maybe we would want

889
00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:28,720
Speaker 2: them to be, but I'm looking for this one specifically

890
00:44:29,040 --> 00:44:33,600
Speaker 2: for the Falcons. Tommy Reese. Obviously we love Bijon, He's

891
00:44:33,600 --> 00:44:36,719
Speaker 2: a consensus top two pick. Drake London, I've always been

892
00:44:36,760 --> 00:44:40,520
Speaker 2: a fan of his. He's firmly a second rounder. And

893
00:44:40,560 --> 00:44:42,960
Speaker 2: then speaking of great tight end prospects, Kyle Piss coming

894
00:44:43,000 --> 00:44:46,919
Speaker 2: off of a career year, and I think some I've

895
00:44:46,920 --> 00:44:50,360
Speaker 2: seen multiple people kind of're not people, but like vibes

896
00:44:50,400 --> 00:44:52,440
Speaker 2: of like he's never really called plays Tommy Reese like

897
00:44:52,640 --> 00:44:55,160
Speaker 2: he did. He called plays in college for four years

898
00:44:55,160 --> 00:44:58,640
Speaker 2: across Notre Dame in Alabama. He took over last year

899
00:44:59,360 --> 00:45:02,480
Speaker 2: with the Brown down the stretch and it's like it

900
00:45:02,680 --> 00:45:06,319
Speaker 2: wasn't great. It was slightly worse than their first half

901
00:45:06,360 --> 00:45:09,359
Speaker 2: of the year. Cleveland was bottom three and epa per

902
00:45:09,400 --> 00:45:12,200
Speaker 2: play from Week ten onward, which again you have to

903
00:45:12,280 --> 00:45:15,480
Speaker 2: kind of account for the context of this team that

904
00:45:15,560 --> 00:45:18,480
Speaker 2: he was, you know, call in place four, but it

905
00:45:18,640 --> 00:45:21,399
Speaker 2: was a downgrade from where it was slight, but still

906
00:45:21,440 --> 00:45:25,120
Speaker 2: a downgrade. Their pass right over expectation dipped from minus

907
00:45:25,160 --> 00:45:28,160
Speaker 2: three point six to minus four point two after the

908
00:45:28,640 --> 00:45:33,200
Speaker 2: play caller change as well, and ultimately, like I'll just

909
00:45:33,360 --> 00:45:36,680
Speaker 2: like I don't love this quarterback room for this team,

910
00:45:36,719 --> 00:45:39,200
Speaker 2: and I think you have to trust that, like an

911
00:45:39,239 --> 00:45:42,560
Speaker 2: offensive play caller is going to get the most out

912
00:45:42,640 --> 00:45:47,439
Speaker 2: of a subpar quarterback situation. That's where things get sort

913
00:45:47,440 --> 00:45:50,319
Speaker 2: of thrown into question. Last year, the Falcons averaged twenty

914
00:45:50,320 --> 00:45:51,279
Speaker 2: point eight points per game.

915
00:45:51,320 --> 00:45:53,160
Speaker 3: I was twenty fourth. If you look at their.

916
00:45:53,040 --> 00:45:56,240
Speaker 2: Imply team total across all their games from DraftKings Sportsbook

917
00:45:56,719 --> 00:45:58,879
Speaker 2: Imply team total on average twenty one point two. That's

918
00:45:58,880 --> 00:46:02,799
Speaker 2: also twenty fourth. It's not just me saying, hey, you know,

919
00:46:03,040 --> 00:46:06,399
Speaker 2: let's back off of the Falcons. It's like, it's kind

920
00:46:06,440 --> 00:46:10,239
Speaker 2: of they were subpar. They have question marks at quarterback.

921
00:46:10,640 --> 00:46:12,719
Speaker 2: And it doesn't mean that I don't like Bijon. I'm

922
00:46:12,760 --> 00:46:14,600
Speaker 2: gonna take them second. If I don't take Jamiir, Like,

923
00:46:14,640 --> 00:46:16,239
Speaker 2: if I can't get Jamior Gibbs first, let's just take

924
00:46:16,280 --> 00:46:18,359
Speaker 2: bj On second. I still like Drake London. I think

925
00:46:18,360 --> 00:46:20,600
Speaker 2: the market shares will be there. What I think is

926
00:46:20,719 --> 00:46:23,920
Speaker 2: probably more likely is these guys have good target shares,

927
00:46:24,000 --> 00:46:27,160
Speaker 2: but the offense thaws out a little bit. Two, we

928
00:46:27,280 --> 00:46:30,120
Speaker 2: can't push the ball downfield, like he can't make plays

929
00:46:30,600 --> 00:46:33,560
Speaker 2: or I'm not the biggest like Michael Pennox fan either,

930
00:46:33,600 --> 00:46:36,080
Speaker 2: So like, I just think it's more of a this

931
00:46:36,160 --> 00:46:40,680
Speaker 2: team could go from like twentieth an offense to like

932
00:46:41,080 --> 00:46:44,640
Speaker 2: twentieth in offense and whenever you can have the market

933
00:46:44,640 --> 00:46:48,240
Speaker 2: shares be elite, that's awesome, But from like a pure

934
00:46:48,400 --> 00:46:52,080
Speaker 2: high end upside standpoint, It's funny because we talked about

935
00:46:52,080 --> 00:46:54,120
Speaker 2: like take away the biggest plays, like Bjon Robinson can

936
00:46:54,160 --> 00:46:57,480
Speaker 2: have an eighty or touchdown any moment, but that's not

937
00:46:57,640 --> 00:47:00,759
Speaker 2: really what Drake London does to starting to do a

938
00:47:00,760 --> 00:47:02,520
Speaker 2: little bit more of that. But I just think that

939
00:47:02,719 --> 00:47:05,440
Speaker 2: maybe the easiest way to sum it up is like

940
00:47:05,520 --> 00:47:08,640
Speaker 2: I've been leaning more toward Jamior Gibbs compared to Bejean Robinson.

941
00:47:08,920 --> 00:47:11,120
Speaker 2: Like maybe I pumped the brakes a little bit on

942
00:47:11,200 --> 00:47:14,759
Speaker 2: Kyle Pitt's following things up, which is probably silly because

943
00:47:14,800 --> 00:47:16,640
Speaker 2: of how Cleveland used their tight ends in the past.

944
00:47:17,120 --> 00:47:20,720
Speaker 2: But I'll just say like they were still a below

945
00:47:20,719 --> 00:47:23,880
Speaker 2: average A DOT team down the stretch with Sugar Sanders

946
00:47:23,920 --> 00:47:26,879
Speaker 2: taken over, I think there are enough question marks worth

947
00:47:26,960 --> 00:47:30,560
Speaker 2: maybe this is just a slower run heavy offense where

948
00:47:30,560 --> 00:47:32,839
Speaker 2: you love the market shares, but the touchdowns the big

949
00:47:32,920 --> 00:47:34,520
Speaker 2: yardage isn't always their week to week.

950
00:47:34,560 --> 00:47:36,719
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think even with Drake London that like it's

951
00:47:36,800 --> 00:47:39,719
Speaker 5: He's one of those cases for me where it's not

952
00:47:39,760 --> 00:47:42,200
Speaker 5: so much that you change his ranking within the position,

953
00:47:42,360 --> 00:47:45,360
Speaker 5: but you change where you draft him versus the running backs,

954
00:47:45,600 --> 00:47:49,000
Speaker 5: right where like I'd rather have Chase Brown than Drake London,

955
00:47:49,120 --> 00:47:51,279
Speaker 5: you know where I'd rather have the upside of that

956
00:47:51,400 --> 00:47:54,840
Speaker 5: running back situation than going with Drake London given the

957
00:47:54,920 --> 00:47:58,640
Speaker 5: question marks surrounding that offense in general. Right, I think

958
00:47:58,680 --> 00:48:02,439
Speaker 5: Drake London's phenomenal. I've been a huge backer Truther. People

959
00:48:02,520 --> 00:48:04,520
Speaker 5: have probably been sick of me talking about Drake London,

960
00:48:04,920 --> 00:48:07,640
Speaker 5: but I do think that there is that that sort

961
00:48:07,680 --> 00:48:11,319
Speaker 5: of like X factor of change within this this team

962
00:48:11,360 --> 00:48:14,560
Speaker 5: and this offense that we have to at least consider.

963
00:48:14,640 --> 00:48:14,799
Speaker 4: Now.

964
00:48:14,800 --> 00:48:16,480
Speaker 5: It could go the other direction, of course, but I

965
00:48:16,480 --> 00:48:18,839
Speaker 5: think that the day that you just presented makes sense

966
00:48:18,880 --> 00:48:20,680
Speaker 5: that we should be at least a little bit nervous.

967
00:48:21,080 --> 00:48:24,960
Speaker 5: Is there a coordinator or play caller and a player

968
00:48:25,080 --> 00:48:27,640
Speaker 5: match that you're really excited about.

969
00:48:27,320 --> 00:48:30,280
Speaker 4: Like like specific player position with a coordinator.

970
00:48:30,880 --> 00:48:35,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've mentioned this on in discord, and I think

971
00:48:35,440 --> 00:48:39,400
Speaker 2: this will make Kitchen pretty happy. But why do Robinson

972
00:48:39,800 --> 00:48:45,399
Speaker 2: with Brian Dabole. Robinson had kind of by necessity last year,

973
00:48:45,440 --> 00:48:48,640
Speaker 2: but he underwent a pretty legitimate role change. Yeah, and

974
00:48:48,680 --> 00:48:52,680
Speaker 2: I don't know that it's fully being thought of as that. Like, yes,

975
00:48:53,120 --> 00:48:56,480
Speaker 2: I'll be the first one to say, you know, you

976
00:48:56,520 --> 00:49:01,760
Speaker 2: got to look at this player with that alpha healthy,

977
00:49:01,800 --> 00:49:03,919
Speaker 2: But I don't know how you just sort of put

978
00:49:03,960 --> 00:49:07,120
Speaker 2: the toothpaste back in the tube. With Windale, he was

979
00:49:07,360 --> 00:49:10,920
Speaker 2: a sub six point two yard a dot guy. It

980
00:49:10,960 --> 00:49:14,400
Speaker 2: actually was a career low in twenty twenty four at

981
00:49:14,440 --> 00:49:17,239
Speaker 2: four point seven yards. That balloon to eight and a

982
00:49:17,320 --> 00:49:20,479
Speaker 2: half last year. We had a step up again without

983
00:49:20,520 --> 00:49:22,440
Speaker 2: my leak neighbors, but he answered the call. He had

984
00:49:22,440 --> 00:49:25,480
Speaker 2: one hundred and forty targets identical twenty twenty four to

985
00:49:25,480 --> 00:49:28,040
Speaker 2: twenty twenty five. He had one fewer catch in twenty

986
00:49:28,080 --> 00:49:32,080
Speaker 2: twenty five than twenty twenty four, but he cleared one

987
00:49:32,080 --> 00:49:35,120
Speaker 2: thousand yards last year was three hundred and fifteen more

988
00:49:35,440 --> 00:49:36,399
Speaker 2: than a twenty twenty four.

989
00:49:36,440 --> 00:49:37,120
Speaker 3: In this new role.

990
00:49:37,360 --> 00:49:39,960
Speaker 2: He wasn't a touchdown dependent guy. Had four touchdowns. He's

991
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:42,120
Speaker 2: probably going to be a huge touchdown scorer, but like,

992
00:49:42,800 --> 00:49:45,400
Speaker 2: I don't know that he's just and first of all

993
00:49:45,440 --> 00:49:47,160
Speaker 2: just being a touchdown score like he's due for a

994
00:49:47,160 --> 00:49:50,240
Speaker 2: two year correction and touchdown luck as well, which doesn't

995
00:49:50,280 --> 00:49:52,360
Speaker 2: just look at like your yard edge your catches for me,

996
00:49:52,440 --> 00:49:54,120
Speaker 2: it actually looks like where you are on the field,

997
00:49:54,520 --> 00:49:56,400
Speaker 2: which is nice because it accounts for the fact that

998
00:49:56,440 --> 00:49:58,239
Speaker 2: he's not going to be getting a ton of end

999
00:49:58,320 --> 00:50:02,840
Speaker 2: zone targets. But Carnel Tate, as you've mentioned, wasn't the

1000
00:50:02,960 --> 00:50:06,640
Speaker 2: highest target share guy, even accounting for like other Ohio

1001
00:50:06,680 --> 00:50:11,200
Speaker 2: state receivers, there's no reason that Wandal can't have like

1002
00:50:11,239 --> 00:50:15,080
Speaker 2: a twenty two percent target share, even if like Tate

1003
00:50:15,239 --> 00:50:16,400
Speaker 2: is at twenty four percent.

1004
00:50:16,719 --> 00:50:17,040
Speaker 4: Yeah.

1005
00:50:17,080 --> 00:50:21,120
Speaker 2: So I think that Robinson is a really interesting piece

1006
00:50:21,320 --> 00:50:25,600
Speaker 2: who it's not it's not fun really to draft them,

1007
00:50:25,800 --> 00:50:28,120
Speaker 2: but I've kind of ended up with a lot of

1008
00:50:28,160 --> 00:50:30,080
Speaker 2: Wandelle so far this season.

1009
00:50:30,320 --> 00:50:31,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, I like that call.

1010
00:50:31,560 --> 00:50:33,879
Speaker 5: All right, early best Ball drafts, give me a couple

1011
00:50:33,880 --> 00:50:36,120
Speaker 5: of players that you are drafting early. I mean, maybe

1012
00:50:36,160 --> 00:50:37,879
Speaker 5: Wandell is one of them, and then and then why

1013
00:50:37,880 --> 00:50:39,600
Speaker 5: you're drafting them.

1014
00:50:39,880 --> 00:50:44,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, so Wandel is one of them, but also Romadunze. Yeah,

1015
00:50:44,880 --> 00:50:48,080
Speaker 2: he's standing out to me too. I love Colson Loveland.

1016
00:50:48,640 --> 00:50:50,800
Speaker 2: You know, contractually I have to love Luther Burden.

1017
00:50:50,920 --> 00:50:53,160
Speaker 4: You do, that is very true. Yes, you would, You

1018
00:50:53,160 --> 00:50:55,000
Speaker 4: would be let go from the company if you didn't.

1019
00:50:55,080 --> 00:50:56,839
Speaker 3: Yes, But but I do.

1020
00:50:57,400 --> 00:51:00,120
Speaker 2: It's just he did a lot of stuff on smaller samples,

1021
00:51:00,160 --> 00:51:02,839
Speaker 2: and I think that's relevant and you get rid of

1022
00:51:03,040 --> 00:51:06,719
Speaker 2: djmore here. But Rome Adunda has been like a tragic

1023
00:51:07,600 --> 00:51:10,840
Speaker 2: underperformer in the touchdown call in the last two years.

1024
00:51:10,640 --> 00:51:14,960
Speaker 2: He's top four in touchdowns under expectation among receivers, but

1025
00:51:15,000 --> 00:51:17,080
Speaker 2: when active last year. So going back to like that

1026
00:51:17,160 --> 00:51:19,920
Speaker 2: bringing a full circle here of looking at like actual

1027
00:51:19,960 --> 00:51:23,719
Speaker 2: relevant shares, Like if you look at this team when

1028
00:51:23,800 --> 00:51:26,239
Speaker 2: Rome was active, he was the number one, had a

1029
00:51:26,239 --> 00:51:29,279
Speaker 2: twenty four percent target share, thirty eight percent aer yard share,

1030
00:51:29,719 --> 00:51:32,319
Speaker 2: was targeted on thirty six percent of the team's place

1031
00:51:32,360 --> 00:51:37,920
Speaker 2: from inside the five. Just he's always being like overthrown

1032
00:51:38,000 --> 00:51:39,680
Speaker 2: or missed in the end zone. I think that has

1033
00:51:39,719 --> 00:51:42,279
Speaker 2: to change eventually. So I've been getting a lot of Rome.

1034
00:51:42,520 --> 00:51:45,279
Speaker 2: I've also been a lot of Marvin Harrison Junior. He's

1035
00:51:45,320 --> 00:51:49,480
Speaker 2: another touchdown regression candidate new coordinator. He cannot be used worse.

1036
00:51:50,080 --> 00:51:53,080
Speaker 2: Marvin Harrison Junior cannot be used worse than he has been.

1037
00:51:53,560 --> 00:51:54,439
Speaker 3: And when fully healthy.

1038
00:51:54,480 --> 00:51:56,319
Speaker 2: Last year, he had a twenty two percent target share,

1039
00:51:56,400 --> 00:51:58,640
Speaker 2: thirty nine percent air yards share. He was averaging over

1040
00:51:58,680 --> 00:52:01,080
Speaker 2: one hundred air yards per game. He's going to get

1041
00:52:01,120 --> 00:52:05,320
Speaker 2: more involved in different ways he has to. But also

1042
00:52:05,640 --> 00:52:09,400
Speaker 2: there's a lot of underlying good information and data in

1043
00:52:09,440 --> 00:52:11,840
Speaker 2: his profile that I think people are kind of not

1044
00:52:12,080 --> 00:52:16,160
Speaker 2: necessarily believing in. And the final one I've been kind

1045
00:52:16,160 --> 00:52:19,759
Speaker 2: of getting in early on is Tyler Warren. He was

1046
00:52:19,800 --> 00:52:23,319
Speaker 2: by far the biggest underperformer in the expected touchdown call

1047
00:52:23,400 --> 00:52:26,040
Speaker 2: him for me among tight ends in twenty twenty five.

1048
00:52:26,360 --> 00:52:28,880
Speaker 2: He gets greative touches. He can, you know, get carries.

1049
00:52:29,600 --> 00:52:33,480
Speaker 2: Daniel Jones probably going to not run as much, and

1050
00:52:33,560 --> 00:52:36,760
Speaker 2: I love like I love Alec Pearce speaking to shout

1051
00:52:36,760 --> 00:52:39,359
Speaker 2: out Jim again, Like we've been kind of og Alec

1052
00:52:39,400 --> 00:52:42,520
Speaker 2: Peerce guys. But when you look at the sample with

1053
00:52:42,640 --> 00:52:46,440
Speaker 2: Daniel Jones and Alec Pearce playing over sixty percent of

1054
00:52:46,480 --> 00:52:49,360
Speaker 2: the snaps, Warren led the team last year with a

1055
00:52:49,360 --> 00:52:52,080
Speaker 2: twenty two percent target share thirty one percent target share

1056
00:52:52,080 --> 00:52:55,000
Speaker 2: inside the five, I just think that, like head, he

1057
00:52:55,040 --> 00:52:57,399
Speaker 2: could very easily lead this team in target share, and

1058
00:52:57,440 --> 00:53:00,560
Speaker 2: he's being drafted as like he's like a tier below

1059
00:53:01,040 --> 00:53:02,680
Speaker 2: the other elite tight ends. So I've been getting a

1060
00:53:02,680 --> 00:53:03,719
Speaker 2: lot of Tyler Warren as well.

1061
00:53:04,200 --> 00:53:07,080
Speaker 5: I'm in full agreement with all of these players Roma Dunza,

1062
00:53:07,239 --> 00:53:09,280
Speaker 5: like I'm drafted like I have a doonsa ranked ahead

1063
00:53:09,280 --> 00:53:12,800
Speaker 5: of Jamo for instance right now, so like that's almost

1064
00:53:12,840 --> 00:53:15,960
Speaker 5: a full round in equity. Rom's like late fifth, uh,

1065
00:53:16,200 --> 00:53:18,840
Speaker 5: you know on DraftKings, and JMO's like four or five.

1066
00:53:18,680 --> 00:53:20,160
Speaker 4: Turn type player.

1067
00:53:20,719 --> 00:53:22,719
Speaker 5: The Marvin Harrison Junior thing I want to touch on

1068
00:53:22,840 --> 00:53:25,480
Speaker 5: is really interesting because you know, I talked about him

1069
00:53:25,480 --> 00:53:25,799
Speaker 5: on the.

1070
00:53:25,760 --> 00:53:26,799
Speaker 4: Show this week.

1071
00:53:26,960 --> 00:53:29,520
Speaker 5: Earlier this week about the stuff that I learned from

1072
00:53:29,560 --> 00:53:32,400
Speaker 5: from Projections, and I talked about Michael Wilson, and I

1073
00:53:32,680 --> 00:53:37,520
Speaker 5: feel like the community is emotionally bolish with Michael Wilson,

1074
00:53:37,920 --> 00:53:41,480
Speaker 5: and they're using the coaching change as almost a reason

1075
00:53:41,600 --> 00:53:44,360
Speaker 5: as to why we should be bullish because it's a

1076
00:53:44,400 --> 00:53:47,200
Speaker 5: clean slate, and so they're just gonna go by talent, right,

1077
00:53:47,239 --> 00:53:51,680
Speaker 5: and they're gonna say Michael Wilson greater than Marvin Harrison Junior,

1078
00:53:52,239 --> 00:53:55,279
Speaker 5: which I think is only happening because we had such

1079
00:53:55,280 --> 00:53:59,960
Speaker 5: absurd expectations for Marvin Harrison Junior, because realistically, They're peripheral

1080
00:54:00,080 --> 00:54:04,520
Speaker 5: roles were almost identical last year. But if we're being honest,

1081
00:54:04,800 --> 00:54:08,160
Speaker 5: those peripherals for Michael Wilson happened when Marvin Harrison Junior

1082
00:54:08,360 --> 00:54:12,560
Speaker 5: was out right. When he's healthy, their peripherals aren't even close.

1083
00:54:12,640 --> 00:54:15,920
Speaker 5: I mean, Marvin Harrison Junior looks way better than Michael

1084
00:54:15,920 --> 00:54:18,520
Speaker 5: Wilson does. So I actually am looking at the coaching

1085
00:54:18,600 --> 00:54:22,760
Speaker 5: change as a positive thing because we saw the talent

1086
00:54:22,840 --> 00:54:26,640
Speaker 5: profiles sitting there for Marvin Harrison Junior coming out, and

1087
00:54:26,719 --> 00:54:29,680
Speaker 5: maybe he needs a change to be able to be

1088
00:54:29,880 --> 00:54:31,080
Speaker 5: unlocked in some way.

1089
00:54:31,320 --> 00:54:33,680
Speaker 4: The different Like last year, I was fading Marvin Harrison Junior.

1090
00:54:33,719 --> 00:54:34,000
Speaker 4: I didn't.

1091
00:54:34,120 --> 00:54:36,080
Speaker 5: I think I had like two or three percent in

1092
00:54:36,160 --> 00:54:39,560
Speaker 5: best Ball. But he was also a late third round pick.

1093
00:54:39,719 --> 00:54:43,520
Speaker 5: Right now he goes like late sixth into the seventh sometimes,

1094
00:54:43,560 --> 00:54:47,200
Speaker 5: and that to me is is a chef's kiss place

1095
00:54:47,640 --> 00:54:51,040
Speaker 5: to get a highly touted prospect entering year three with

1096
00:54:51,160 --> 00:54:52,640
Speaker 5: so many changes around him.

1097
00:54:52,719 --> 00:54:55,319
Speaker 4: So I'm with you on each of those players. Let's

1098
00:54:55,320 --> 00:54:57,400
Speaker 4: look at players to avoid players that you're not getting

1099
00:54:57,440 --> 00:54:57,880
Speaker 4: as much of.

1100
00:54:58,440 --> 00:55:02,080
Speaker 2: I have been pretty scare it off of Devon Achan,

1101
00:55:02,560 --> 00:55:07,759
Speaker 2: which is not like groundbreaking, but I just like find

1102
00:55:07,760 --> 00:55:11,400
Speaker 2: it really hard to click a running back on a

1103
00:55:11,480 --> 00:55:16,080
Speaker 2: team with offensive expectations like they have. Their average implied

1104
00:55:16,080 --> 00:55:20,200
Speaker 2: team total is eighteen point one. It is fourth worst

1105
00:55:20,880 --> 00:55:25,839
Speaker 2: in the league going into the season. It's a two

1106
00:55:25,840 --> 00:55:28,600
Speaker 2: point three point drop from where they were last year.

1107
00:55:28,600 --> 00:55:32,560
Speaker 2: They weren't even that great. Like now, Chan huge overperformer

1108
00:55:32,760 --> 00:55:35,440
Speaker 2: by expected touchdowns because he can break plays and make

1109
00:55:35,480 --> 00:55:37,320
Speaker 2: stuff happen, and like that's probably what he's gonna have

1110
00:55:37,360 --> 00:55:39,279
Speaker 2: to do. It's not really the type of profile that

1111
00:55:39,320 --> 00:55:41,520
Speaker 2: I want to lean on. And I think my biggest

1112
00:55:41,560 --> 00:55:44,360
Speaker 2: thing is like he could have good shares, but he

1113
00:55:44,400 --> 00:55:48,480
Speaker 2: could actually finally have some weaker efficiency because who is

1114
00:55:48,560 --> 00:55:52,120
Speaker 2: taking any attention away from Devon Hien? Like every team

1115
00:55:52,560 --> 00:55:55,680
Speaker 2: is just gonna be like we stop Hian, we win,

1116
00:55:56,080 --> 00:55:58,120
Speaker 2: Like that's probably what it's gonna feel.

1117
00:55:57,880 --> 00:56:01,239
Speaker 5: Like, probably just Malik Willis right, like because he's great

1118
00:56:01,680 --> 00:56:06,279
Speaker 5: like that, That's that's the fear is his efficiency on

1119
00:56:06,320 --> 00:56:09,480
Speaker 5: the ground. If they're running like RPO, they're doing a

1120
00:56:09,520 --> 00:56:11,160
Speaker 5: lot of stuff like cause I mean I think they're

1121
00:56:11,200 --> 00:56:12,600
Speaker 5: like I said in the podcast, I think they're me

1122
00:56:12,719 --> 00:56:16,560
Speaker 5: extremely extremely run heavy. Even if they're bad. Even when

1123
00:56:16,560 --> 00:56:19,080
Speaker 5: they're bad, we should say like they're probably still.

1124
00:56:18,920 --> 00:56:20,000
Speaker 4: Gonna be extremely run heavy.

1125
00:56:20,400 --> 00:56:23,160
Speaker 5: A chan you bring him up, though, is a good

1126
00:56:23,200 --> 00:56:26,360
Speaker 5: call out because I've gone back and forth, like you

1127
00:56:26,400 --> 00:56:28,080
Speaker 5: can see the range of outcomes, but I think there

1128
00:56:28,120 --> 00:56:30,880
Speaker 5: is some fear that like you're kind of banking on

1129
00:56:32,080 --> 00:56:34,200
Speaker 5: I don't know, eighteen to twenty percent target chair for

1130
00:56:34,280 --> 00:56:36,359
Speaker 5: him to really be able to hit in a big way.

1131
00:56:36,400 --> 00:56:38,319
Speaker 5: And there's so many good running backs going around him.

1132
00:56:38,400 --> 00:56:42,000
Speaker 2: So we talk about my process and everything. It kind

1133
00:56:42,000 --> 00:56:44,720
Speaker 2: of goes back like the Chip Kelly like score points,

1134
00:56:44,760 --> 00:56:48,120
Speaker 2: but it's like we need touchdowns, like touchdowns or at

1135
00:56:48,160 --> 00:56:52,759
Speaker 2: the end of the year or like what separate difference makers. Yeah,

1136
00:56:52,920 --> 00:56:56,279
Speaker 2: they're like yardage outliers, sure, but like most of the

1137
00:56:56,480 --> 00:57:00,120
Speaker 2: non top three guys, it's did they score and it's like, well,

1138
00:57:00,840 --> 00:57:04,680
Speaker 2: where their offense is in position to score, that's a

1139
00:57:04,719 --> 00:57:07,480
Speaker 2: big part of it. Otherwise you have to break these

1140
00:57:07,520 --> 00:57:09,600
Speaker 2: long plays, and I know a chance can do it.

1141
00:57:10,160 --> 00:57:13,360
Speaker 2: But you talk about like a Chase Brown, like his

1142
00:57:13,360 --> 00:57:16,680
Speaker 2: his workload when like when healthy and when the team

1143
00:57:16,760 --> 00:57:20,800
Speaker 2: got better, was so good, and his team's gonna score

1144
00:57:20,840 --> 00:57:23,240
Speaker 2: way more points and he's gonna have way more chances.

1145
00:57:23,400 --> 00:57:25,040
Speaker 5: I've gotten to the point where, like with the early

1146
00:57:25,120 --> 00:57:27,080
Speaker 5: round running backs, I'm trying to not overthink it. I

1147
00:57:27,080 --> 00:57:29,760
Speaker 5: think Chase Brown is a don't overthink it kind of player.

1148
00:57:30,040 --> 00:57:32,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's gonna be one of those Like it's it's

1149
00:57:32,200 --> 00:57:34,360
Speaker 2: almost like a James Cook where it's like, yeah, well

1150
00:57:34,360 --> 00:57:37,960
Speaker 2: he doesn't get like it's a different situation, different type

1151
00:57:37,960 --> 00:57:39,840
Speaker 2: of player. But it's like for me, I've always been

1152
00:57:39,840 --> 00:57:42,640
Speaker 2: like James Cook. James, it's like his team's gonna score

1153
00:57:42,640 --> 00:57:46,160
Speaker 2: a lot of points. He's very good. Like that's a

1154
00:57:46,160 --> 00:57:48,680
Speaker 2: different situation than Devon a Chian has to go out

1155
00:57:48,720 --> 00:57:52,800
Speaker 2: and make everything happen for himself and like their team.

1156
00:57:52,880 --> 00:57:55,320
Speaker 2: Their average imply team total this year is twenty four

1157
00:57:55,360 --> 00:57:56,360
Speaker 2: point four points.

1158
00:57:56,520 --> 00:57:57,320
Speaker 3: They're gonna score.

1159
00:57:57,120 --> 00:58:01,000
Speaker 2: Probably an extra touchdown a game compared to my Miami. Yeah,

1160
00:58:01,000 --> 00:58:03,040
Speaker 2: and even I don't know if Miami is going to

1161
00:58:03,120 --> 00:58:05,560
Speaker 2: end up averaging almost, you know, or over eighteen points

1162
00:58:05,560 --> 00:58:05,840
Speaker 2: a game.

1163
00:58:05,880 --> 00:58:06,440
Speaker 3: We'll see.

1164
00:58:07,240 --> 00:58:09,280
Speaker 2: I hope they do. I hope it's a fun experiment.

1165
00:58:09,400 --> 00:58:13,440
Speaker 2: But to me, I'm not really there with Devon a Chen.

1166
00:58:14,000 --> 00:58:15,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, I dig it, I dig it all right.

1167
00:58:15,920 --> 00:58:18,800
Speaker 5: Before I let you go, I need one hot take

1168
00:58:19,600 --> 00:58:20,840
Speaker 5: for the twenty twenty six season.

1169
00:58:21,080 --> 00:58:22,800
Speaker 2: I was not prepared for this and not a big

1170
00:58:22,880 --> 00:58:27,880
Speaker 2: hot take kind of guy. Let me say, can I

1171
00:58:27,880 --> 00:58:30,360
Speaker 2: say George Pickens outscore ceed lamb?

1172
00:58:30,680 --> 00:58:31,360
Speaker 4: That's a hot take?

1173
00:58:31,680 --> 00:58:32,080
Speaker 3: I don't enough.

1174
00:58:32,640 --> 00:58:35,880
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's hot, that's very hot. All right, all right, Brandon,

1175
00:58:36,040 --> 00:58:39,000
Speaker 5: this is great. Let everyone know where they can find you.

1176
00:58:39,000 --> 00:58:41,440
Speaker 5: You're obviously doing stuff for Late Round Fantasy Football, and

1177
00:58:41,840 --> 00:58:44,160
Speaker 5: we will have a lot of announcements coming, as I

1178
00:58:44,200 --> 00:58:46,360
Speaker 5: alluded to on the Late Round show this week, but

1179
00:58:46,880 --> 00:58:49,200
Speaker 5: talk about what you're working on and where people can

1180
00:58:49,240 --> 00:58:49,560
Speaker 5: find you.

1181
00:58:50,120 --> 00:58:52,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've been in the trenches that it was kind

1182
00:58:52,520 --> 00:58:54,720
Speaker 2: of crazy for you to say I've been here almost

1183
00:58:54,720 --> 00:58:57,720
Speaker 2: six months because I'm like, yeah, I've been pretty head down,

1184
00:58:57,880 --> 00:59:00,919
Speaker 2: like working on stuff in the background. I'm just now

1185
00:59:01,000 --> 00:59:04,160
Speaker 2: having my first, uh first show here, and it's like, yeah,

1186
00:59:04,360 --> 00:59:07,160
Speaker 2: but I've been doing a bunch of stuff that they

1187
00:59:07,240 --> 00:59:09,240
Speaker 2: kind of needed done to get ready for the you know,

1188
00:59:09,320 --> 00:59:12,160
Speaker 2: the NFL Draft, but now the season. So I'm working

1189
00:59:12,160 --> 00:59:14,000
Speaker 2: on a lot of stuff off you know, this week,

1190
00:59:14,040 --> 00:59:17,800
Speaker 2: I'll have schedule analysis in the newsletter that will already

1191
00:59:17,800 --> 00:59:20,600
Speaker 2: be out by this point, looking at offensive coordinator deep

1192
00:59:20,720 --> 00:59:24,760
Speaker 2: dives in probably different ways. I did actually do a

1193
00:59:24,800 --> 00:59:27,280
Speaker 2: couple months ago. At this point, kind of a high

1194
00:59:27,320 --> 00:59:29,320
Speaker 2: level look at offensive coordinators. It's a lot of like

1195
00:59:29,640 --> 00:59:32,840
Speaker 2: regression based stuff that yeah, we'll probably see some changes,

1196
00:59:32,840 --> 00:59:34,840
Speaker 2: but it could just kind of regress back. But and

1197
00:59:34,880 --> 00:59:37,640
Speaker 2: then yeah, we got some some fun stuff cooking for

1198
00:59:37,960 --> 00:59:41,680
Speaker 2: the uh the draft guide and and upcoming season, and

1199
00:59:41,840 --> 00:59:44,400
Speaker 2: I guess, I guess we'll shout out my socials. I'm

1200
00:59:44,440 --> 00:59:47,440
Speaker 2: on X at Godula thirteen g d U l A

1201
00:59:47,560 --> 00:59:49,720
Speaker 2: one three, and I'm on Blue Sky at Godula.

1202
00:59:50,400 --> 00:59:54,440
Speaker 4: Very rare, though Brandon's not. Brandon's not getting in the

1203
00:59:54,600 --> 00:59:58,320
Speaker 4: in the twitter streets as much as as I should.

1204
00:59:58,480 --> 01:00:02,520
Speaker 2: I should just become like tweet stats guy. But even

1205
01:00:02,520 --> 01:00:04,920
Speaker 2: then people will be like, you're stupid for saying this.

1206
01:00:04,960 --> 01:00:07,440
Speaker 2: I'm like, I'm just trying to share information, guys. Not

1207
01:00:07,480 --> 01:00:09,160
Speaker 2: worth it, Yeah, it's not worth it.

1208
01:00:09,160 --> 01:00:11,120
Speaker 4: In the end, I feel that. I definitely feel that.

1209
01:00:11,280 --> 01:00:13,800
Speaker 4: But yeah, Brandon, thank you. I appreciate the time.

1210
01:00:14,120 --> 01:00:16,680
Speaker 5: We obviously talk constantly throughout the day, so this is

1211
01:00:16,760 --> 01:00:18,280
Speaker 5: just another avenue in which to do that.

1212
01:00:18,440 --> 01:00:21,960
Speaker 4: But also while you know, learning some takes and learning

1213
01:00:21,960 --> 01:00:24,680
Speaker 4: more about the game. But for anyone not following me,

1214
01:00:24,840 --> 01:00:27,960
Speaker 4: late round QB on Twitter. Make sure you're checking out

1215
01:00:28,000 --> 01:00:31,000
Speaker 4: Lateround dot com. Make sure you are subscribed to that

1216
01:00:31,040 --> 01:00:35,000
Speaker 4: newsletter because, like Brandon said, there's articles and newsletters coming

1217
01:00:35,000 --> 01:00:38,280
Speaker 4: out all the time from there. Otherwise, everyone enjoy your

1218
01:00:38,280 --> 01:00:40,680
Speaker 4: weekend and thanks for tuning in.