WEBVTT - Trump Tariffs, Executive Actions 0:00:02.720 --> 0:00:10.520 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 0:00:10.560 --> 0:00:14.480 Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 0:00:14.560 --> 0:00:17.800 Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg 0:00:17.880 --> 0:00:21.000 Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, 0:00:21.320 --> 0:00:23.480 or watch us live on YouTube. 0:00:24.640 --> 0:00:27.920 Obviously, the question is how do you factor in any 0:00:28.000 --> 0:00:30.280 Trump policies? Right? Was a JP Morgan that said they're 0:00:30.280 --> 0:00:32.760 going to have like a tariff trade desk now working 0:00:32.840 --> 0:00:34.880 like twenty four hours a day, try to do on 0:00:34.920 --> 0:00:36.839 top of it, right, just try and like understand what 0:00:36.880 --> 0:00:38.680 the input means for their models. So we wanted to 0:00:38.680 --> 0:00:41.520 get more on that with Branda Murray, Bloomberg Global Trade Editor, 0:00:41.920 --> 0:00:43.919 on all these tariffs, Let's just start with what we 0:00:43.960 --> 0:00:46.440 know in terms of Mexico and Canada and what we 0:00:46.479 --> 0:00:48.160 could expect come February first. 0:00:49.479 --> 0:00:52.440 Yeah, so, so Trump in an Oval Office press briefing 0:00:52.840 --> 0:00:56.040 late yesterday said that he was going to put twenty 0:00:56.120 --> 0:00:59.959 five percent tariff on Mexico and Canada starting February five. 0:01:00.280 --> 0:01:02.800 So you know, less than two weeks from now, thirty 0:01:02.800 --> 0:01:07.120 percent of all US trade imports would have would have 0:01:07.160 --> 0:01:11.119 a what would be you know, a quoter more expensive. Uh. Now, 0:01:11.160 --> 0:01:15.039 whether those are threats that are aimed at driving those 0:01:15.040 --> 0:01:18.720 two countries to the negotiating table or I promise that 0:01:18.760 --> 0:01:22.240 he'll actually follow through on is We don't know. But 0:01:22.440 --> 0:01:26.119 he has the authority to do so. And uh and 0:01:26.120 --> 0:01:28.640 and and the currency markets at least are taking him 0:01:28.640 --> 0:01:29.360 at as word. 0:01:29.840 --> 0:01:33.440 Brendan, would these be enacted via an executive orders at 0:01:33.480 --> 0:01:37.080 simply signing a pen uh and they're put in place? 0:01:37.840 --> 0:01:40.720 Yeah, there's there's a there's some legal mumbo jumbo that 0:01:40.840 --> 0:01:43.320 he would have to go through and and declare quote 0:01:43.360 --> 0:01:47.640 unquote a national emergency. Uh and and and and you 0:01:47.680 --> 0:01:50.680 know that could be the fentanyl uh you know problem, 0:01:51.040 --> 0:01:55.920 or the migration illegal migration problem from from both countries, 0:01:55.960 --> 0:01:58.320 although Canada there's that's a lot that's a lot less 0:01:58.320 --> 0:02:03.600 acute from the northern border. He there is executive authority 0:02:03.600 --> 0:02:07.480 that the president has to put tariffs at least temporarily 0:02:07.880 --> 0:02:12.160 on countries that are causing you know, a big trade 0:02:12.160 --> 0:02:15.559 and balance or some kind of economic emergency. 0:02:15.840 --> 0:02:16.000 Right. 0:02:16.080 --> 0:02:18.640 That's what's really confusing, because if we look at tariff 0:02:18.680 --> 0:02:21.680 policy as a negotiating tool, and you could look at 0:02:21.680 --> 0:02:24.880 what wasn't said about China as a window into that. 0:02:25.600 --> 0:02:28.079 What is the US trying to negotiate with Canada? 0:02:30.200 --> 0:02:34.560 Yeah, I mean it's a good question. Trump basically looks 0:02:34.639 --> 0:02:39.080 at bilateral trade relationships and says, if you have a 0:02:39.080 --> 0:02:41.880 surplus for US, we're losing and we're going to fix those. 0:02:42.080 --> 0:02:46.840 So he would want, you know, Canada to to buy 0:02:46.840 --> 0:02:51.000 more US products or subsidize less of its own products 0:02:51.400 --> 0:02:55.880 at the expense of American producers. So it would be 0:02:56.080 --> 0:03:01.600 to drive you know, concessions the US MCA. This is 0:03:01.960 --> 0:03:05.680 the successor to the NAFTA agreement that was renegotiated in 0:03:05.720 --> 0:03:09.040 Trump's first term, is up for review in about a 0:03:09.120 --> 0:03:11.560 year and a half. So perhaps this is a tactic 0:03:11.639 --> 0:03:14.680 to you know, to kind of put put the US 0:03:14.720 --> 0:03:18.799 on the front foot in those talks that will undoubtedly 0:03:18.880 --> 0:03:19.600 start this year. 0:03:20.160 --> 0:03:22.079 It's only been a very short time for this administration, 0:03:22.200 --> 0:03:25.720 but we've not heard much as relates to China and Tarish. 0:03:25.760 --> 0:03:28.160 Where do you think that the policy wins are blowing there? 0:03:29.320 --> 0:03:32.080 Yeah, So lost in all all of the you know, 0:03:32.160 --> 0:03:37.640 Mexico Canada headlines yesterday was the actual executive action that 0:03:37.680 --> 0:03:41.000 the President put out on trade policy, and there were 0:03:41.040 --> 0:03:44.360 a number of things in that that he asked his 0:03:44.440 --> 0:03:48.800 departments heads, his cabinet secretaries to investigate or assess. And 0:03:48.880 --> 0:03:55.840 one of those is oversized trade imbalances, currency misalignments, and 0:03:55.880 --> 0:03:58.320 those kinds of things that you know, the code word 0:03:58.680 --> 0:04:01.160 you know, that's just code for for China there. So 0:04:01.680 --> 0:04:04.680 those will go through a more uh, you know, a 0:04:04.760 --> 0:04:10.760 longer department led review. The deadline is April first, so 0:04:11.520 --> 0:04:13.560 that's not too far out. That's you know, just a 0:04:13.560 --> 0:04:16.120 couple of months. And you know, and and those could 0:04:16.160 --> 0:04:21.360 be the legal justifications for a tougher tariff stance with China. 0:04:22.240 --> 0:04:25.520 What's so interesting is when we're starting to get company 0:04:25.560 --> 0:04:27.520 calls or even in the fourth quarter, when we were 0:04:27.520 --> 0:04:30.400 getting third quarter earnings out CEO is talking about tariffs, 0:04:30.600 --> 0:04:32.720 they all seem to say, like, we can handle it. 0:04:32.839 --> 0:04:36.480 We're monitoring it very closely. We've already diversified maybe our 0:04:36.520 --> 0:04:41.240 supply base after the last Trump administration. What are do 0:04:41.480 --> 0:04:44.159 you feel like companies are prepared this time around? Because 0:04:44.160 --> 0:04:46.039 I'm trying to see where the equity impact is going 0:04:46.120 --> 0:04:46.279 to be. 0:04:47.480 --> 0:04:49.600 Yeah, they would be, and I agree with you the 0:04:49.920 --> 0:04:53.000 lots of those reaped through those transcripts myself and and 0:04:53.000 --> 0:04:55.360 and try to see where the winds are blowing in 0:04:55.880 --> 0:04:59.960 the C suite, but they would be more more diversified 0:05:00.080 --> 0:05:03.200 in there in their supplier or supply chains. You know, 0:05:03.240 --> 0:05:05.360 a lot of a lot of companies started doing that 0:05:05.400 --> 0:05:08.839 well before Trump, uh, the move move outside China. That's 0:05:08.880 --> 0:05:11.679 sort of so called China plus plus one or plus 0:05:11.720 --> 0:05:14.720 two strategies. So there would be you know, a bit 0:05:14.760 --> 0:05:19.279 of a you know, a shock absorber built in since 0:05:19.320 --> 0:05:23.360 the first Trump administration. But still there's no there's no 0:05:23.640 --> 0:05:26.279 getting around the fact that if if you know, a 0:05:26.480 --> 0:05:30.800 universal tax that Trump has floated even yesterday, uh, you know, 0:05:30.880 --> 0:05:35.960 on on all US imports, would start chipping away at 0:05:36.000 --> 0:05:38.960 earnings outlooks, you know, quarter by quarter as we go 0:05:39.040 --> 0:05:39.560 through the year. 0:05:40.480 --> 0:05:41.120 Brennan, if we. 0:05:41.080 --> 0:05:44.480 Heard anything from Mexico and Canada about what they would 0:05:44.480 --> 0:05:47.479 do if, in fact, these twenty five percent tariffs do 0:05:47.520 --> 0:05:49.920 start on February first, maybe. 0:05:50.160 --> 0:05:53.839 Well Canada has Canada has said, you know, we'll retaliate 0:05:53.920 --> 0:05:55.920 in kind. And if you if you come at if 0:05:55.920 --> 0:05:58.600 you come at US with you know, a twenty five 0:05:58.600 --> 0:06:00.680 percent tariffs, then we have a list of US products 0:06:00.680 --> 0:06:04.600 that will that will do the same thing too. Mexico 0:06:04.800 --> 0:06:10.080 has I'm not sure, Mexico has threatened in kind retaliation, 0:06:10.240 --> 0:06:12.120 but Mexico has said, look, you're just going to hurt 0:06:12.120 --> 0:06:15.360 yourself because a lot of a lot of the imports 0:06:15.400 --> 0:06:17.440 at a lot of a lot of American companies are 0:06:17.440 --> 0:06:20.760 in Mexico. And if you start, if you start, you know, 0:06:20.800 --> 0:06:24.800 putting tariffs on those on those, on those companies, those 0:06:24.839 --> 0:06:27.720 companies products, then then you're just going to hurt you know, 0:06:28.200 --> 0:06:30.440 the business back in the US. 0:06:30.680 --> 0:06:32.160 Right, all right, we'll have to see how that plays out. 0:06:32.200 --> 0:06:35.600 Will follow it closely, of course. Brendan Murray, global trade editor, 0:06:35.600 --> 0:06:37.640 who's going to be busy going forward, that's for sure, 0:06:37.720 --> 0:06:41.120 Global Trade editor for Bloomberg News. He is based in London. 0:06:42.839 --> 0:06:46.719 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch the program 0:06:46.839 --> 0:06:50.239 live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android 0:06:50.279 --> 0:06:53.279 Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 0:06:53.360 --> 0:06:56.640 live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. 0:06:57.160 --> 0:06:59.839 Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:07:00.640 --> 0:07:02.080 All right, now we want to go to the broader 0:07:02.080 --> 0:07:04.279 look on the market. Right, I'm getting all the notes 0:07:04.320 --> 0:07:06.800 of like Trump Day one had a position, what does 0:07:06.880 --> 0:07:09.120 it mean? The whiplash we've seen in the market, So 0:07:09.520 --> 0:07:11.800 how do you position if you're actually putting together an 0:07:11.800 --> 0:07:15.600 equity portfolio or an investment portfolio. Christopher Smart is managing 0:07:15.640 --> 0:07:20.360 partner at Abroth Group. He is joining us now. I 0:07:20.400 --> 0:07:24.800 guess the question really becomes, Chris, how do you model 0:07:25.320 --> 0:07:30.280 things we don't know but think are coming well? 0:07:30.600 --> 0:07:32.920 Good to be with you, Alex, I think the answer 0:07:32.960 --> 0:07:36.640 is very carefully and very slowly. And you know, we're 0:07:36.680 --> 0:07:40.800 not quite twenty four hours into this new administration. We've 0:07:40.840 --> 0:07:44.520 had a slew of decisions and executive orders and comments 0:07:44.560 --> 0:07:47.520 by the new president, but I think we're many of 0:07:47.600 --> 0:07:49.960 us still scratching our heads as to what this might 0:07:50.040 --> 0:07:53.760 mean for any given portfolio. You have a series of 0:07:54.200 --> 0:07:57.480 macro decisions that are looming, whether that's around the budget 0:07:57.680 --> 0:08:02.720 or taxes or FED policy that we're still not clear about. 0:08:02.800 --> 0:08:05.160 In terms of the president giving signals about what he 0:08:05.200 --> 0:08:07.880 has in store for what his preferences are for the 0:08:08.000 --> 0:08:12.520 upcoming budget. We have a lot of announcements on tax 0:08:12.720 --> 0:08:14.840 and tariff policy, which sort of takes you down to 0:08:14.920 --> 0:08:16.920 the corporate level. You know a lot of CFOs, as 0:08:16.920 --> 0:08:19.360 you were talking about earlier on your program, trying to 0:08:19.360 --> 0:08:22.120 figure out what this means for them, and then oh, 0:08:22.120 --> 0:08:24.880 by the way, this is earnings week, so there's just 0:08:24.920 --> 0:08:27.120 a whole lot for investors to digest. And as I 0:08:27.160 --> 0:08:29.520 talked to my clients, I know they're working very hard 0:08:29.560 --> 0:08:32.800 and feeling that flashback to four or five, six, seven 0:08:32.880 --> 0:08:35.079 years ago in the first Trump administration, where if you 0:08:35.200 --> 0:08:39.040 haven't checked your news feed in the last couple of hours, 0:08:39.040 --> 0:08:40.320 you feel like you may be out of date. 0:08:41.040 --> 0:08:43.520 So, Christopher, what do you think is some of the 0:08:43.559 --> 0:08:47.280 most important things for President Biden and his administration to 0:08:47.400 --> 0:08:49.319 achieve in the first one hundred days. 0:08:51.120 --> 0:08:52.640 I think you meant President Trump Trump. 0:08:52.760 --> 0:08:54.720 Yes, we're all going to get used to that. 0:08:56.640 --> 0:09:00.760 I think it's really the thing that investors, I think 0:09:00.760 --> 0:09:02.840 are going to want to really get clarity on is 0:09:03.320 --> 0:09:06.480 the tariff's issue. And I think we have maybe less 0:09:06.520 --> 0:09:08.320 clarity on it today than we did a couple of 0:09:08.360 --> 0:09:11.800 days ago. To my mind, the tariffs that are linked 0:09:11.880 --> 0:09:15.400 to non economic issues, whether it's ventanyl, or it's immigration 0:09:16.120 --> 0:09:22.880 Canada and Mexico, whether it's tariffs that were promised to China, 0:09:22.960 --> 0:09:27.400 you know, related to the byte dance, TikTok divestiture, those 0:09:27.440 --> 0:09:32.000 feel a lot like negotiating moves to kind of apply 0:09:32.200 --> 0:09:35.840 leverage to a non economic issue that will get resolved 0:09:35.920 --> 0:09:39.280 before big tariffs are applied. I think the real thing 0:09:39.320 --> 0:09:41.840 that investors need to keep their eyes on are these 0:09:42.200 --> 0:09:44.439 these studies that he's now commissioned from the Department of 0:09:44.480 --> 0:09:48.120 Commerce and others to look at currency manipulation, to look 0:09:48.160 --> 0:09:50.079 at market protection, to look at all of these other 0:09:50.160 --> 0:09:52.760 things that is likely to bring on the wave of 0:09:52.840 --> 0:09:56.880 tariffs again, maybe you know, not at the sixty or 0:09:56.880 --> 0:09:59.920 one hundred percent level that were talked about during the campaign, 0:10:00.600 --> 0:10:05.640 but really focused on countries where there is a trade imbalance, 0:10:05.679 --> 0:10:08.080 a bilateral deficit. Of the President is clearly focused on, 0:10:08.160 --> 0:10:12.360 even the most economists are not so much, and that 0:10:12.440 --> 0:10:13.960 those are the ones that I think we're gonna have 0:10:13.960 --> 0:10:14.720 to watch over time. 0:10:15.360 --> 0:10:17.960 I should point out that Scott Bessant has won a 0:10:18.000 --> 0:10:20.480 Senate Finance Committee backing for Treasury. 0:10:20.760 --> 0:10:22.440 A secretary job will of course. 0:10:22.360 --> 0:10:24.800 Keep you updated in any one of those headlines as 0:10:24.840 --> 0:10:27.880 they continue to come across. Chris Stang on that clearly 0:10:27.960 --> 0:10:31.400 what happens to Treasury and issuance will have very dramatic 0:10:31.440 --> 0:10:35.280 effects on the Treasury curve particularly. Also, many factor in 0:10:35.720 --> 0:10:38.880 the debt ceiling. What are you telling your clients about that? 0:10:40.520 --> 0:10:43.120 Well, we've of course got no word on any of 0:10:43.120 --> 0:10:45.959 that from the from the new president in the last 0:10:46.000 --> 0:10:48.120 in last twenty four hours in terms of what he 0:10:48.160 --> 0:10:52.600 may have in mind for debt's deficits and debt limits. 0:10:53.120 --> 0:10:55.160 I think again, this is going to be something that 0:10:55.280 --> 0:10:58.400 causes a lot of near term anxiety, but ultimately at 0:10:58.400 --> 0:11:02.560 the at the eleventh, twelfth or maybe thirteenth hour gets 0:11:02.600 --> 0:11:07.040 resolved in terms of both the debt limit and you know, 0:11:07.840 --> 0:11:11.559 keeping the government funded. I think we're all expecting there 0:11:11.600 --> 0:11:15.600 to be some kinds of tax cuts, probably, you know, 0:11:16.040 --> 0:11:20.200 not much to close the deficit, just because no matter 0:11:20.240 --> 0:11:21.880 what the president wants, there just a whole lot of 0:11:21.920 --> 0:11:25.000 people in Congress who have, you know, an interest in 0:11:25.040 --> 0:11:27.480 some sort of spending program and those are very hard 0:11:27.480 --> 0:11:29.920 to close. You know, it's very narrow majority of the 0:11:29.960 --> 0:11:34.120 Speaker Johnson has there. So I think not a lot 0:11:34.160 --> 0:11:36.480 of change, not a lot of change there in the 0:11:36.800 --> 0:11:37.640 budget trajectory. 0:11:38.520 --> 0:11:40.880 Chris, what do you think the president's policy will likely 0:11:40.880 --> 0:11:46.160 be as it relates to illegal immigrants, maybe returning some 0:11:46.800 --> 0:11:49.400 people back to their country of origin. How do you 0:11:49.440 --> 0:11:52.080 think that might play out, because that was certainly, if 0:11:52.080 --> 0:11:55.600 not the biggest, one of the biggest topics in the campaigns. 0:11:57.120 --> 0:11:58.920 I think it was, and I think we'll see some 0:11:59.080 --> 0:12:02.040 very high profile while moves on that front. You're already 0:12:02.040 --> 0:12:04.880 seeing some of it in terms of the executive orders, 0:12:05.600 --> 0:12:08.280 the emergency declared on the border, the return to Mexico 0:12:08.320 --> 0:12:12.040 policy being put back into place. I wonder, though, how 0:12:12.320 --> 0:12:17.800 much tolerance voters and Americans will have for a lot 0:12:17.840 --> 0:12:23.480 of disruption to law abiding citis, law abiding immigrants in 0:12:23.520 --> 0:12:27.000 this country, whether they are documented or undodocumented, how much 0:12:27.320 --> 0:12:30.800 disruption they will they will tolerate. You know, there are 0:12:30.880 --> 0:12:34.800 estimates of about eight to ten million undocumented Americans, some 0:12:34.880 --> 0:12:38.280 even higher estimates than that. It's really hard to see, 0:12:38.400 --> 0:12:42.160 you know, that number of people being removed from the 0:12:42.200 --> 0:12:45.599 country physically. So I think you're going to see a 0:12:45.640 --> 0:12:50.559 lot of drama around it and in the next few months, 0:12:50.640 --> 0:12:53.679 but maybe not so much to move the at least 0:12:53.720 --> 0:12:55.200 the economic needle in terms. 0:12:55.080 --> 0:12:55.760 Of the labor force. 0:12:56.679 --> 0:12:58.520 Is there any sector, Chris, before you let you go 0:12:59.080 --> 0:13:02.200 that feels really, really really not in a good place. 0:13:02.280 --> 0:13:03.839 And I'm just kind of setting you up to say 0:13:03.880 --> 0:13:05.520 offshore win, but doesn't have to be that. 0:13:05.559 --> 0:13:06.880 It can pretty much be anything. 0:13:07.920 --> 0:13:09.800 Well, you can start with offshore win you can start 0:13:09.800 --> 0:13:14.160 with anything that's related to renewables. You can go on 0:13:14.320 --> 0:13:17.480 to sort of, you know, anything that relies heavily on 0:13:17.600 --> 0:13:22.319 a single source of imports from China, and then you know, 0:13:22.800 --> 0:13:25.360 a lot of costs are going to go up. Whether 0:13:25.480 --> 0:13:28.480 you either have a customer living across the border or 0:13:28.480 --> 0:13:31.200 a supplier living across the border. You know it's going 0:13:31.280 --> 0:13:33.640 to be more and more difficult to operate in an 0:13:33.640 --> 0:13:37.240 international footprint than it was before. So there are some 0:13:37.360 --> 0:13:39.920 key pain points initially, as you point out, but I 0:13:39.920 --> 0:13:42.640 think more broadly speaking, you know these costs are going 0:13:42.679 --> 0:13:43.080 to rise. 0:13:43.880 --> 0:13:45.680 Chris, thanks so much for joining us. Really appreciated. 0:13:45.720 --> 0:13:46.400 Christopher Smart. 0:13:46.520 --> 0:13:49.360 He's a managing partner at our Growth Group, former Special 0:13:49.400 --> 0:13:52.560 Assistant to the President for International economics. Giving us the 0:13:52.679 --> 0:13:55.400 latest on some of these very very early hours of 0:13:55.440 --> 0:13:59.199 the Trump administration. Here day two of his administration, staying 0:13:59.240 --> 0:14:01.960 on top of some of the discussions around terrors and 0:14:02.080 --> 0:14:06.720 other economic policies that may emanate from this new administration. 0:14:08.480 --> 0:14:12.199 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us Live 0:14:12.280 --> 0:14:15.360 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android 0:14:15.360 --> 0:14:18.679 Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 0:14:18.720 --> 0:14:21.840 you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:14:22.880 --> 0:14:25.120 Alex Youl here alongside Paul Sweeney. This is the Bloomberg 0:14:25.160 --> 0:14:27.760 Intelligence Radio, and we are broadcasting to live from our 0:14:27.800 --> 0:14:32.160 interactive Broker studio right here in the very cold midtown Manhattan. 0:14:32.760 --> 0:14:35.320 I did see someone running this morning in fourteen degrees, 0:14:35.360 --> 0:14:37.040 which was a whole bunch of crazy. I don't know 0:14:37.080 --> 0:14:39.440 how you do that, but apparently that's something that we do. 0:14:40.240 --> 0:14:40.520 Fortunate. 0:14:41.200 --> 0:14:41.640 Yeah, in the. 0:14:41.560 --> 0:14:43.040 Studio, it's called Anyway. 0:14:43.040 --> 0:14:46.040 We were just talking about how to understand President Trump's 0:14:46.040 --> 0:14:47.720 policies when it comes to the markets. 0:14:47.760 --> 0:14:49.000 Now, let's kind of pick apart. 0:14:49.320 --> 0:14:52.560 What are those most important policies, what's the noise, what's 0:14:52.600 --> 0:14:55.240 the reality? Joining us now is Jennifer Lawless, Professor at 0:14:55.360 --> 0:14:59.120 University of Virginia. We've had less than twenty four hours 0:14:59.320 --> 0:15:02.320 to dissect President Trump's second term. There was so much 0:15:02.360 --> 0:15:05.400 coming out. What stood out the most. 0:15:05.120 --> 0:15:09.080 To you, Well, yesterday really was a whirlwind. 0:15:09.320 --> 0:15:12.440 What was typical was that when a new president comes in, 0:15:12.800 --> 0:15:16.000 he typically issues executive orders, undoing a lot of what 0:15:16.040 --> 0:15:17.600 the previous administration did. 0:15:18.040 --> 0:15:20.840 So those kinds of things are pretty standard. 0:15:20.880 --> 0:15:24.800 What struck me yesterday was this speed with which Donald 0:15:24.800 --> 0:15:28.320 Trump is willing to follow through on some campaign promises 0:15:28.680 --> 0:15:33.240 that didn't matter that much to most people. So, for example, 0:15:33.320 --> 0:15:35.920 he used both his inauguration address and the power of 0:15:35.960 --> 0:15:39.160 the pen to say that, moving forward, the federal government 0:15:39.240 --> 0:15:43.360 only recognizes two genders. He moved forward saying that the 0:15:43.360 --> 0:15:46.360 federal government is going to require a hiring freeze for 0:15:46.400 --> 0:15:49.480 all open positions and that people working for the federal 0:15:49.480 --> 0:15:52.000 government have to return to work. These are not the 0:15:52.040 --> 0:15:55.360 reasons that people elected Donald Trump, but they're the quick 0:15:55.400 --> 0:15:58.000 things that he can do on day one. 0:15:57.640 --> 0:16:00.840 Jenifer, can he talk to us about presidential It seems 0:16:00.880 --> 0:16:03.040 like the last days of the Biden administration and now 0:16:03.040 --> 0:16:06.880 the first day that Trump administration, these presidents have just 0:16:07.120 --> 0:16:09.720 gone to extraordinary lengths in terms of the number of 0:16:09.760 --> 0:16:12.960 pardons and the severity and the types of pardons. Has 0:16:12.960 --> 0:16:15.200 this always been a part of the American presidency? 0:16:15.200 --> 0:16:15.800 What's happening? 0:16:16.960 --> 0:16:17.400 It has not. 0:16:17.600 --> 0:16:20.960 There have always been examples of pardons being issued. Sometimes 0:16:21.000 --> 0:16:24.720 it's to political friends, sometimes it's to people who were 0:16:24.760 --> 0:16:29.120 serving sentences that are no longer mainstream kinds of sentences 0:16:29.160 --> 0:16:32.280 because policy has evolved over time. What we've seen here 0:16:32.440 --> 0:16:35.200 from both the Biden and the Trump teams in terms 0:16:35.200 --> 0:16:38.120 of these pardons, are really a response to Donald Trump. 0:16:38.680 --> 0:16:40.800 Over the course of the last four years, he's made 0:16:40.840 --> 0:16:44.080 it clear that he thinks he's been politically persecuted and 0:16:44.120 --> 0:16:46.160 that as a result, one of the first things he's 0:16:46.240 --> 0:16:51.080 going to do as president is seek retribution, and we've 0:16:51.160 --> 0:16:53.880 saw him yesterday continue to talk about that. We saw 0:16:53.960 --> 0:16:57.160 him pardon most of the January sixth insurrectionists. 0:16:57.680 --> 0:16:59.680 The Biden pardons are related. 0:16:59.320 --> 0:17:01.800 To all of this two though, because by pardoning members 0:17:01.800 --> 0:17:04.880 of his family and the January sixth committee, for example, 0:17:05.160 --> 0:17:08.240 what Biden was trying to do was inoculate those people 0:17:08.280 --> 0:17:13.240 from Trump's retribution. So it's unusual, but Biden and Trump's 0:17:13.240 --> 0:17:14.960 behavior is related to each other. 0:17:16.080 --> 0:17:18.480 There was also some narratives that came out of the 0:17:18.520 --> 0:17:22.800 last twenty four hours from analysts saying that it's hard 0:17:22.800 --> 0:17:25.040 to know which Trump we are going to see, like 0:17:25.080 --> 0:17:27.720 are we going to see the Trump that spoke amongst 0:17:27.720 --> 0:17:31.040 his peers right after he was inaugurated That seemed a 0:17:31.080 --> 0:17:33.320 much more measured approach to policy and a much more 0:17:33.359 --> 0:17:36.720 politically savvy individual. Or do you see the one that 0:17:36.840 --> 0:17:39.080 was talking to his supporters later that night that seemed 0:17:39.160 --> 0:17:42.760 much more kind of out for blood and retribution, and 0:17:42.800 --> 0:17:46.360 we got executive orders and pardons relating to both. How 0:17:46.400 --> 0:17:49.000 does that evolve you think over the next coming weeks. 0:17:50.200 --> 0:17:52.680 I think we're going to see both Donald Trump's We 0:17:52.720 --> 0:17:55.639 know that he's happiest when he's talking to his supporters, 0:17:55.680 --> 0:17:58.600 when he's in campaign mode and when he's generating and 0:17:58.640 --> 0:18:01.360 getting up that kind of populace sentiment that got him elected. 0:18:01.800 --> 0:18:02.879 But he's also aware of. 0:18:02.880 --> 0:18:05.360 The fact that in order to pass any of his 0:18:05.480 --> 0:18:09.520 legislative initiatives, he needs Congress on board. So I think 0:18:09.560 --> 0:18:12.440 he'll try to thread that needle. But when push comes 0:18:12.440 --> 0:18:17.080 to shove, we've now had nine solid years of evidence 0:18:17.160 --> 0:18:20.840 that he ultimately prefers the campaign trail style. 0:18:21.840 --> 0:18:23.560 Jennifer, what do you think in terms of some of 0:18:23.600 --> 0:18:26.560 these nominations to cabinet positions, which ones you think will 0:18:26.560 --> 0:18:27.280 be problematic? 0:18:28.840 --> 0:18:30.760 Well, let me first say that I think the Marco 0:18:30.880 --> 0:18:35.240 Rubio nomination getting through so quickly with unanimous Senate approval 0:18:35.880 --> 0:18:37.800 was a smart move on the part of the Democrats. 0:18:37.880 --> 0:18:40.679 So that when they do vote against other nominees. I 0:18:40.680 --> 0:18:45.360 think problematic will be people like Pete Hegseth, like Telsea Gabbert, 0:18:45.440 --> 0:18:46.000 like Robert F. 0:18:46.080 --> 0:18:46.760 Kennedy Junior. 0:18:47.400 --> 0:18:49.560 That the Republicans won't be in a position where they 0:18:49.560 --> 0:18:53.080 can simply say that the Democrats are obstructing everybody. But 0:18:53.359 --> 0:18:55.760 you know, Donald Trump knew that he was putting forward 0:18:55.840 --> 0:18:59.200 controversial names. He was doing it as a signal both 0:18:59.240 --> 0:19:02.600 to his base to Republicans in Congress that he is 0:19:02.680 --> 0:19:04.920 going to usher in a new kind of government. 0:19:05.400 --> 0:19:06.640 But I don't think what he. 0:19:06.640 --> 0:19:11.840 Realized is that Senators do take quite seriously the nomination process, 0:19:11.880 --> 0:19:14.760 the confirmation process, and the experience of a lot of 0:19:14.760 --> 0:19:17.040 these people. So you know, I think a lot of 0:19:17.040 --> 0:19:20.080 them will get through, especially the lower profile ones. But Gabert, 0:19:20.080 --> 0:19:23.160 Hegsteth and Kennedy. My bet is we'll face some tough 0:19:23.200 --> 0:19:23.760 times ahead. 0:19:24.320 --> 0:19:26.840 Talk to us about staffing currently in the White House, 0:19:26.840 --> 0:19:29.760 his White House chief of staff really in part, I 0:19:29.760 --> 0:19:32.680 mean drove through that election, that reelection campaign. 0:19:33.359 --> 0:19:34.280 What do we expect there. 0:19:36.080 --> 0:19:38.720 I think we'll see what we have generally seen with 0:19:38.840 --> 0:19:41.199 chiefs of staff early on, and then it'll just be 0:19:41.240 --> 0:19:44.640 a question of how long she can last. You know, 0:19:45.000 --> 0:19:49.160 we've seen this movie before, and people want to sort 0:19:49.200 --> 0:19:52.840 of protect Donald Trump from people that might otherwise want 0:19:52.840 --> 0:19:55.080 to get into the Oval office and influence him, who 0:19:55.160 --> 0:19:58.680 might want to move him away from what the administration's 0:19:58.720 --> 0:20:01.760 agenda is, might want to from away from sort of 0:20:01.760 --> 0:20:04.280 the normal way of dealing with Congress. She has her 0:20:04.320 --> 0:20:06.280 work cut out for her, and at some point Donald 0:20:06.320 --> 0:20:08.400 Trump will probably get frustrated and replace. 0:20:08.119 --> 0:20:09.480 Her, Jennifer. 0:20:09.480 --> 0:20:12.760 How about Ukraine, that seems to be from an international perspective, 0:20:12.760 --> 0:20:14.880 one of the key areas for President Trump to act. 0:20:14.960 --> 0:20:19.560 What do you expect, Well, based on what President Zelenski 0:20:19.600 --> 0:20:23.080 has said, you know, he's hopeful that the United States 0:20:23.080 --> 0:20:27.280 will continue to provide funding and will continue. 0:20:26.640 --> 0:20:29.040 To you know, allow Ukraine to exist. 0:20:29.119 --> 0:20:32.320 But based on Donald Trump's relationship with Putin and his 0:20:32.480 --> 0:20:36.040 general view of you know, world powers right now and 0:20:36.119 --> 0:20:38.879 mentioning things like invading Greenland and taking back the panic 0:20:38.920 --> 0:20:41.760 from the canal, if I were the Ukraine or supporter 0:20:41.880 --> 0:20:46.320 of people in Ukraine, I'd be concerned because the talk 0:20:46.440 --> 0:20:49.240 that's coming out of Donald Trump is more consistent with 0:20:49.240 --> 0:20:50.880 Putin's agenda than Zelensky's. 0:20:52.640 --> 0:20:55.080 What are you watching for next so as we reap 0:20:55.200 --> 0:20:57.600 up the segment, like what's the number one thing on 0:20:57.680 --> 0:21:00.400 your radar right now, Jennifer, I. 0:21:00.320 --> 0:21:02.520 Would say that over the course of the next week, 0:21:02.760 --> 0:21:06.560 the biggest thing will be whether the Senate is willing 0:21:06.600 --> 0:21:10.240 to just accept everything that Donald Trump pushes forward when 0:21:10.240 --> 0:21:13.120 it comes to these nominees. Are they going to provide 0:21:13.160 --> 0:21:15.040