WEBVTT - US-Iran Peace Prospects Dim as Trump Rejects Truce Extension 0:00:02.480 --> 0:00:10.480 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. This is Bloomberg business 0:00:10.480 --> 0:00:14.400 Week Daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders 0:00:14.400 --> 0:00:18.320 stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends 0:00:18.360 --> 0:00:23.360 shaping today's complex economy. Plus global business finance and tech 0:00:23.440 --> 0:00:27.320 news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast 0:00:27.640 --> 0:00:31.680 with Carol Masser and Tim Stenebeck on Bloomberg Radio. 0:00:32.000 --> 0:00:34.040 Hey, President Trump for poorly said he is in no 0:00:34.120 --> 0:00:35.959 hurry to end the war with Iran, and a US 0:00:36.040 --> 0:00:39.000 naval blockade on Iranian ports is putting pressure, at no 0:00:39.040 --> 0:00:41.800 doubt about it, on the country. President also warning that 0:00:41.840 --> 0:00:44.559 if Alman gets in the way, we will bomb the 0:00:44.880 --> 0:00:47.519 expletive out of them. Fill in the blank. I'm sure 0:00:47.520 --> 0:00:50.000 you can figure it out. Also said back channels with 0:00:50.040 --> 0:00:53.840 officials from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard remained open, which was 0:00:53.920 --> 0:00:57.680 later denied. And then you know, we've just got kind 0:00:57.680 --> 0:01:02.320 of back and forth. There's new in Lebanon. We've got 0:01:02.360 --> 0:01:05.760 to remember Israel and their role in all of this. 0:01:05.880 --> 0:01:08.479 It's a full plate and a reminder that this war, 0:01:08.840 --> 0:01:11.080 which I think some Joe I think early on might 0:01:11.080 --> 0:01:13.880 have thought it would have ended quickly, we are now 0:01:13.920 --> 0:01:14.920 almost six months in. 0:01:15.520 --> 0:01:17.920 Yes, six months, I mean that's crazy to think about. 0:01:18.160 --> 0:01:20.759 Yeah, and some talk about this as a forever war. 0:01:21.080 --> 0:01:23.160 Let's get to our Washington round up a lot out 0:01:23.240 --> 0:01:25.800 of the nation's capital. We head to our Bloomberg News 0:01:25.840 --> 0:01:28.480 Washington DC News. You're into Bloomberg White House and Politics 0:01:28.560 --> 0:01:32.119 team leader Jordan Fabian Jordan, as always, there's a lot 0:01:32.120 --> 0:01:35.399 coming at you, guys. They are in DC. Iran in 0:01:35.440 --> 0:01:39.119 the United States, where to begin feels like we're not 0:01:39.160 --> 0:01:42.480 necessarily moving closer to an end. And yet some say 0:01:42.520 --> 0:01:45.440 it's always darkest before the dawn. How does the White 0:01:45.440 --> 0:01:47.000 House see it? What are you guys hearing? 0:01:48.840 --> 0:01:51.680 Well, we should take stock of what's happening today, which 0:01:51.720 --> 0:01:55.200 is that sixty days ago the President sat in Versy 0:01:55.320 --> 0:01:59.920 Palace and signed that Memorantium Understanding, essentially saying this is over, 0:02:00.480 --> 0:02:02.360 We're going to move toward an agreement to reopen the 0:02:02.360 --> 0:02:05.560 straight of horror moves and we're moving on. And now 0:02:05.560 --> 0:02:09.080 we're sitting here and their US is still stuck in 0:02:09.160 --> 0:02:12.280 the quagmire there. The Strait is still close to a 0:02:12.280 --> 0:02:15.680 lot of maritime traffic, restricting oil supplies, and the President 0:02:15.760 --> 0:02:18.600 has no real way out of this with Iran digging 0:02:18.600 --> 0:02:21.200 in its heels, and so the White House is saying 0:02:21.200 --> 0:02:24.600 they're going to continue with economic pressure. Scott Bessent tease 0:02:24.680 --> 0:02:29.080 some developments this week, perhaps, but it's important to remember 0:02:29.120 --> 0:02:32.000 that Iran has been under sanctions for years and it 0:02:32.040 --> 0:02:34.760 hasn't changed their behavior. So it's hard to see how 0:02:34.840 --> 0:02:38.320 this new approach quote unquote by the President is going 0:02:38.400 --> 0:02:39.760 to yield any new results. 0:02:40.360 --> 0:02:42.480 And once again we do know that we hear from 0:02:42.480 --> 0:02:47.920 the President Jordan talking about the Strait of Hormuz a territory, 0:02:48.040 --> 0:02:49.880 not the first time, right, and he chuckled. I think 0:02:49.919 --> 0:02:52.320 the first time he said it. I don't know the 0:02:52.320 --> 0:02:55.200 more time you hear it. I don't know that they think. 0:02:55.240 --> 0:02:57.120 The Iranians think it's too funny. 0:02:58.520 --> 0:03:01.800 No, he could very well do some thing reckless, do 0:03:01.919 --> 0:03:04.480 something along those lines. It's unclear to me how that 0:03:04.520 --> 0:03:07.480 would change the reality on the ground, which is that, yes, 0:03:07.520 --> 0:03:12.120 the US has opened a maritime channel south near Oman, 0:03:12.360 --> 0:03:15.960 but Iran controls the middle and the upper passages. There's 0:03:15.960 --> 0:03:18.960 still concerns about sea mines, and if the US wanted 0:03:19.000 --> 0:03:21.200 to really take control of the Straight, they would need 0:03:21.240 --> 0:03:24.800 to occupy land on the Iranian side of that waterway, 0:03:25.120 --> 0:03:28.959 and that now we're talking about a land invasion of 0:03:29.800 --> 0:03:32.600 Iran by US forces, and that would certainly mark a 0:03:32.680 --> 0:03:36.520 huge escalation of this conflict in one that the President 0:03:36.520 --> 0:03:39.520 hasn't wanted to take before. So I still think that 0:03:39.680 --> 0:03:42.240 he's essentially saying this is a tongue in cheek thing 0:03:42.520 --> 0:03:46.440 that he's labeling it the US territory, but it's not 0:03:46.480 --> 0:03:48.400 really going to mean much if there's not an increased 0:03:48.400 --> 0:03:49.960 oil flow out of that waterway. 0:03:50.040 --> 0:03:52.280 Sometimes I think he says something Joe just kind of 0:03:52.280 --> 0:03:54.720 get a feel of how people in the markets read it, 0:03:54.760 --> 0:03:55.680 But who knows. 0:03:56.000 --> 0:03:58.600 Yeah, I mean that certainly has been the case with 0:03:58.680 --> 0:04:02.400 him many times. You know, Jordan, you're in this every day. 0:04:03.760 --> 0:04:06.000 You've done this a long time, You've covered both of 0:04:06.040 --> 0:04:09.600 these his administrations. I think for people in the markets 0:04:09.640 --> 0:04:14.800 and generalists who are not necessarily you know, trading every day, right, 0:04:14.840 --> 0:04:17.320 they might just feel like this is just another headline, 0:04:17.520 --> 0:04:21.440 another part of the slog. But how can you parse 0:04:21.839 --> 0:04:24.760 what we're seeing right now as to how this is 0:04:24.800 --> 0:04:27.039 not just part of the slog, this is something new 0:04:27.120 --> 0:04:29.320 and what direction we're headed into right now? 0:04:31.160 --> 0:04:33.200 Well, Joe, it's an interesting question, and I do have 0:04:33.360 --> 0:04:38.119 a question about Trump's credibility with markets moving forward, given 0:04:38.880 --> 0:04:42.160 all the pronouncements he's made throughout this conflict about how 0:04:42.200 --> 0:04:45.600 close the deal is, and even the MoU didn't really 0:04:46.080 --> 0:04:48.200 pan out to be much. It was pretty much dead 0:04:48.240 --> 0:04:52.839 within three weeks. And even the other week he announced 0:04:52.880 --> 0:04:56.159 that he had an agreement with Hamas in Israel to 0:04:56.800 --> 0:04:59.400 disarm the militant group there, and that turned out to 0:04:59.440 --> 0:05:04.440 be nonsense. Also, it was essentially a fake deal. Hamas 0:05:04.440 --> 0:05:06.719 said that we're not going to do anything until Israel withdraws. 0:05:06.760 --> 0:05:09.600 Israel said we're not going to withdraw until hamostis arms, 0:05:09.600 --> 0:05:14.400 and we're still at square one. So it's increasingly harder 0:05:14.480 --> 0:05:16.760 to take his pronouncement seriously. 0:05:16.800 --> 0:05:17.359 You still have to. 0:05:17.400 --> 0:05:20.000 He's still the president of the United States, he still 0:05:20.080 --> 0:05:24.159 commands the world's most powerful military. But he's made a 0:05:24.160 --> 0:05:26.599 lot of pronouncements about things are going to happen that 0:05:26.680 --> 0:05:27.640 haven't really panned out. 0:05:28.200 --> 0:05:30.960 Your point on taking him seriously, I mean, how do 0:05:31.040 --> 0:05:35.160 you think right now the shijin Ping and Chinese officials 0:05:35.160 --> 0:05:35.800 are viewing this. 0:05:38.000 --> 0:05:40.880 I mean, the problem for them and for markets and 0:05:40.920 --> 0:05:43.160 people in general is that Trump has followed through on 0:05:43.320 --> 0:05:46.160 enough of his threats that you do have to take it, 0:05:46.920 --> 0:05:49.320 you know, seriously, And then the question is, like you 0:05:49.600 --> 0:05:52.880 there's always this debate about seriously versus literally is he 0:05:52.960 --> 0:05:55.560 going to follow through this time? That's a hard gamble 0:05:55.600 --> 0:05:59.320 to make. But it does appear that he's promising these 0:05:59.360 --> 0:05:59.760 things that. 0:05:59.680 --> 0:06:00.440 He can deliver. 0:06:00.520 --> 0:06:04.200 And I think that's every foreign leader that's dealing with them, 0:06:04.240 --> 0:06:08.200 whether it's Jijinping or the leaders of Iran, or even 0:06:08.240 --> 0:06:11.480 Kim Jong un. Giving this new threat on South Korea, 0:06:11.800 --> 0:06:14.200 you have to be wondering, like, what is this guy about, 0:06:14.240 --> 0:06:16.640 Like is he just gonna, you know, tear this up 0:06:17.279 --> 0:06:19.960 the minute he finds it inconvenient if you sign an 0:06:20.000 --> 0:06:21.960 agreement with him. I mean you've seen this with the 0:06:21.960 --> 0:06:25.039 trade deals he struck with US allies last year. So 0:06:25.400 --> 0:06:31.440 it's just an increasingly reckless, you know, administration, and it 0:06:31.440 --> 0:06:33.440 makes it very difficult to deal with if you're across 0:06:33.480 --> 0:06:34.080 the table from them. 0:06:34.120 --> 0:06:36.400 Yeah, it certainly keeps everybody on edge, and certainly global 0:06:36.440 --> 0:06:39.920 leaders or at least uncertain about what's next or what's real. Hey, 0:06:40.040 --> 0:06:41.640 on South Korea, let's go there. 0:06:42.000 --> 0:06:42.320 Jordan. 0:06:42.720 --> 0:06:46.920 President Trump telling the Pentagon to quote substantially reduce joint 0:06:47.000 --> 0:06:49.560 military exercises with South Korea, signing the cost of the 0:06:49.600 --> 0:06:53.000 drills and his quote very good relationship with North Korea's 0:06:53.040 --> 0:06:56.120 leader at Kim Jong un. What's the read on this? 0:06:56.160 --> 0:06:58.000 And I mean, Shana's going to be watching. We keep 0:06:58.000 --> 0:07:03.760 thinking about China, watching dwindling military and defense supplies here 0:07:03.760 --> 0:07:06.520 in the US as we continue to fight wars, the 0:07:06.560 --> 0:07:10.080 war in Iran and moving stuff around. So help us 0:07:10.120 --> 0:07:11.320 understand what we need to know here. 0:07:13.400 --> 0:07:15.560 Well, we've been hearing for a decade now about this 0:07:15.960 --> 0:07:18.160 supposed pivot to Asia that was going to happen for 0:07:18.200 --> 0:07:20.880 the United States, where the US is going to focus 0:07:20.920 --> 0:07:24.880 its power more in that region to counter China and 0:07:24.920 --> 0:07:28.920 its advances there and away from traditional hotspots like the 0:07:28.920 --> 0:07:31.840 Middle East. And this is an exhibit a of how 0:07:31.880 --> 0:07:35.240 that has failed, where you have the president bogged down 0:07:35.240 --> 0:07:38.720 in another Middle Eastern conflict that there's no end in sight, 0:07:38.840 --> 0:07:43.000 and his reason for pulling back support for South Korea 0:07:43.200 --> 0:07:47.280 is that they didn't offer him the military aid in Iran. 0:07:47.480 --> 0:07:50.360 So it's all coming back to this conflict that you know, 0:07:50.400 --> 0:07:54.080 we need to remind people he started in February and 0:07:54.800 --> 0:07:57.680 I really had no exit strategy to get out of 0:07:57.840 --> 0:08:00.520 and so you're seeing this reverb rate. Now now to 0:08:00.600 --> 0:08:03.760 South Korea, which is one of the key US allies 0:08:03.760 --> 0:08:06.800 in the region. It's a country that this administration is 0:08:06.840 --> 0:08:10.040 said they're looking to to help revive the US shipbuilding industry. 0:08:10.440 --> 0:08:14.720 How does that all affect the administration's ambitions with South 0:08:14.760 --> 0:08:18.880 Korea given this latest outburst by the president, Just. 0:08:18.840 --> 0:08:21.600 Real quickly, Jordan on the South Korea point, I mean, 0:08:21.920 --> 0:08:25.040 when we read between the lines, how should we interpret 0:08:25.600 --> 0:08:27.960 what the President is saying there? 0:08:28.760 --> 0:08:31.240 Well, he's put it pretty clearly, which is that he 0:08:31.560 --> 0:08:36.319 has value his relationship with Kim Jong un, the leader 0:08:36.360 --> 0:08:39.560 of North Korea, more than the US's his traditional alliance 0:08:39.559 --> 0:08:42.640 with South Korea. And you know this could change tomorrow 0:08:42.880 --> 0:08:45.199 the South Korean's good offer him a concession and he 0:08:45.240 --> 0:08:47.200 could say, well, I've always been friends with South Korea. 0:08:47.240 --> 0:08:50.760 Now we're going to increase the military jeels again. But 0:08:50.800 --> 0:08:52.520 it again goes to the point we were talking about 0:08:52.520 --> 0:08:56.600 earlier of reliability and if you make a deal with 0:08:56.600 --> 0:08:58.800 this administration, is the President going to keep it or 0:08:58.880 --> 0:09:01.160 is he just going to change his mind on a whim. 0:09:01.240 --> 0:09:05.440 And again it points to the increasing unreliability of the 0:09:05.480 --> 0:09:09.640 President's public statements, and it arose to those alliances. 0:09:09.200 --> 0:09:11.240 Right in the past. Doesn't necessarily indicate what might be 0:09:11.240 --> 0:09:13.040 done in the future, which makes it a little tricky 0:09:13.600 --> 0:09:16.720 for the world, so appreciate it. Jordan Fabian, White House 0:09:17.040 --> 0:09:19.960 and Politics team leader for Bloomberg News. He's there in 0:09:20.000 --> 0:09:21.760 our DC News bureau. When we come back, we're going 0:09:21.800 --> 0:09:23.880 to kind of stay on this topic more in geopolitics. 0:09:23.920 --> 0:09:26.880 Everything we discuss what it means for those all important 0:09:26.880 --> 0:09:29.839 global relationships. That's next. 0:09:30.760 --> 0:09:33.640 Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Business Week Daily coming 0:09:33.720 --> 0:09:34.680 up after this. 0:09:38.880 --> 0:09:42.760 You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Daily Podcast. Catch 0:09:42.840 --> 0:09:45.520 us live weekday afternoons from two to five East during 0:09:45.720 --> 0:09:49.640 listen on Applecarplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, 0:09:49.800 --> 0:09:51.760 or watch US Live on YouTube. 0:09:52.360 --> 0:09:54.200 But to headlines, Joe and I've been talking about them. 0:09:54.240 --> 0:09:55.840 I feel like we just went over a lot of 0:09:55.840 --> 0:09:59.800 stuff with Jordan Fabian, our White House and Political team leader. 0:10:00.120 --> 0:10:02.440 Just to remind you if you're just joining us, US 0:10:02.440 --> 0:10:04.920 are on peace prospects dimming with President Trump and no 0:10:05.000 --> 0:10:07.880 hurry for a deal. He's also threatened to bomb mom 0:10:07.920 --> 0:10:09.360 On if he gets in the way of the US 0:10:09.400 --> 0:10:13.679 This is coming from Fox News. President Trump reducing US 0:10:13.760 --> 0:10:17.240 South Korea drill citing a lack of help on Iran, 0:10:18.600 --> 0:10:20.880 and then we've got just some different stories going on. 0:10:20.960 --> 0:10:23.960 It just thinks, you know, national security. I keep thinking, Joe, 0:10:23.960 --> 0:10:26.079 are we a more secure world here in the US 0:10:26.440 --> 0:10:29.000 or just globally? Are not necessarily? 0:10:29.280 --> 0:10:31.200 Wow? It really depends on who you talk to. 0:10:32.040 --> 0:10:33.920 Yeah, I don't know. Maybe if you're in a bunker far, 0:10:34.000 --> 0:10:34.959 far away, well. 0:10:34.800 --> 0:10:37.679 I mean even internally in this administration, right there are 0:10:37.679 --> 0:10:39.800 people who feel like we are not. Yeah, there are 0:10:39.800 --> 0:10:43.559 people who think we definitely are. So the divide is stark. 0:10:43.440 --> 0:10:45.640 Yeah, exactly, which is kind of what we want to 0:10:45.679 --> 0:10:48.680 tackle with our next roundtable. And lucky for us, we 0:10:48.760 --> 0:10:51.440 have with us our own Nick Wadhams, his national security 0:10:51.440 --> 0:10:54.319 reporter for Bloomberg News. He's out there in our Washington, 0:10:54.400 --> 0:10:57.200 d C. Bureau also with US and in the DC area. 0:10:57.520 --> 0:11:00.480 Mark Hansei and He's Senior Advisor Defense and Security Apartment 0:11:00.520 --> 0:11:04.360 at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He spent 0:11:04.440 --> 0:11:06.800 time at the Office of Management and Budget, spent more 0:11:06.840 --> 0:11:08.880 than seven years as chief of the Force Structured and 0:11:08.880 --> 0:11:13.040 Investment Division. He worked on Department of events, budget strategies, 0:11:13.080 --> 0:11:16.240 and different issues. It's a great roundtable. Nick, I want 0:11:16.240 --> 0:11:18.040 to kick it off with you. I'm going to start 0:11:18.080 --> 0:11:21.240 big and broad. Are we a more secure world? Or 0:11:21.360 --> 0:11:22.360 are we less secure? 0:11:22.559 --> 0:11:23.120 Or tbd? 0:11:23.240 --> 0:11:26.040 I never give you easy questions. Do I figure it 0:11:26.080 --> 0:11:26.480 out well? 0:11:26.520 --> 0:11:31.560 Listen. I mean, if you look at the pure metrics. 0:11:31.440 --> 0:11:33.839 Of the Iran war and the Strait of Horror moves, 0:11:33.920 --> 0:11:36.839 you would have to argue that we are not. Of 0:11:36.880 --> 0:11:39.440 course President Trump would argue differently, but you had a 0:11:39.520 --> 0:11:43.679 sort of status quo prior to the US attacks. 0:11:43.240 --> 0:11:46.720 On Iran where oil was flowing through freely through the Strait, 0:11:47.200 --> 0:11:48.200 and now it's not. 0:11:48.760 --> 0:11:50.640 And this has been really one of the problems that 0:11:50.679 --> 0:11:53.800 has bedeviled the president. Of course, his administration continues to 0:11:53.840 --> 0:11:57.320 claim that it's Iran that wants a deal, that he's 0:11:57.360 --> 0:12:00.920 in no rush, but there are some suggestions. 0:12:00.160 --> 0:12:02.400 That really indicate he's growing weary of this. 0:12:02.559 --> 0:12:05.240 You also have the strain that I'm sure Mark will 0:12:05.280 --> 0:12:07.560 be able to talk about as well, on the US 0:12:07.600 --> 0:12:10.400 troops and the US assets that are in the region. 0:12:11.320 --> 0:12:14.000 And there's a lot of broad concern from US allies 0:12:14.040 --> 0:12:17.600 in Asia. You mentioned South Korea. If President Trump is 0:12:17.679 --> 0:12:20.720 now going to try to exert leverage over a country 0:12:20.800 --> 0:12:23.000 like South Korea over on, Well, what does that mean 0:12:23.040 --> 0:12:26.120 for the US A commitment to South Korea in a 0:12:26.200 --> 0:12:29.920 region where China is still looking to make its own moves. 0:12:29.960 --> 0:12:33.920 So a lot of uneasiness from US allies. Spin it 0:12:33.960 --> 0:12:37.199 back to the Western hemisphere though you have Nicholas Maduro 0:12:37.240 --> 0:12:40.920 who's been removed. The President argues that's a win. But 0:12:41.160 --> 0:12:43.880 you know, a lot of instability, a lot of concerns. So, 0:12:45.120 --> 0:12:48.680 you know, but certainly looking at Hormoz, I would say 0:12:48.679 --> 0:12:51.720 we are not as secure as we were before February. 0:12:51.800 --> 0:12:54.200 Mark Nick, as he always does, laying it also while 0:12:54.240 --> 0:12:56.160 come on in on it. I am curious too. We've 0:12:56.160 --> 0:12:59.880 talked a lot about the USS Abraham Lincoln. We've heard 0:13:00.160 --> 0:13:03.400 the President saying the deployment not nearly long enough. There's 0:13:03.440 --> 0:13:05.280 a lot of things that we could hit on. But 0:13:05.400 --> 0:13:08.120 take it away from your vantage point in terms of 0:13:08.400 --> 0:13:11.480 global national security, US national security. 0:13:12.960 --> 0:13:16.079 Well, one of the problems is how do you define 0:13:16.679 --> 0:13:20.319 US interests? Now, I agree with what we've just heard that, 0:13:21.240 --> 0:13:24.840 you know, there have been some very concerning events, straight 0:13:24.880 --> 0:13:27.960 form moves being right up there Trump administration. You know, 0:13:27.960 --> 0:13:34.360 they're much more skeptical about defending Europe. They are skeptical 0:13:34.480 --> 0:13:39.000 about even the Western Pacific and believe that countries there 0:13:39.000 --> 0:13:41.480 should do more that the United States has been taken 0:13:41.480 --> 0:13:45.760 advantage of. So from the perspective of many in the administration, 0:13:45.840 --> 0:13:49.200 we're better off because if the Europeans are threatened by Russia, 0:13:49.240 --> 0:13:52.000 that's not our problem. You know, we will be able 0:13:52.000 --> 0:13:58.000 to keep more of our forces and resources at home. Now, 0:13:58.480 --> 0:14:02.080 the concern is that we've tried that strategy twice in 0:14:02.120 --> 0:14:04.080 the past that failed both times. You know, there's no 0:14:04.120 --> 0:14:07.040 need to try it a third time. But many of 0:14:07.080 --> 0:14:12.000 the administration focused on America first, and one of the 0:14:12.000 --> 0:14:15.240 problems that I think they're realizing is that even if 0:14:15.240 --> 0:14:18.320 you have a strategy that says America first, we're going 0:14:18.360 --> 0:14:21.600 to focus on the hemisphere and the home land, we 0:14:21.640 --> 0:14:27.560 still get dragged into these foreign events like the Middle East, 0:14:28.480 --> 0:14:33.640 like Europe, like the Western Pacific. So if we're a 0:14:33.680 --> 0:14:38.960 global superpower, you know, we need to maintain those global capabilities. 0:14:39.520 --> 0:14:42.840 And right now we're seeing that the Navy is stretched 0:14:42.840 --> 0:14:47.520 and our ammunitions inventories are much lower than the war 0:14:47.560 --> 0:14:48.240 planners would like. 0:14:48.920 --> 0:14:52.120 Yeah, Mark, I mean you're really moving towards. In my estimation, 0:14:52.200 --> 0:14:55.480 here is this ongoing discussion of the US weapons stockpile. 0:14:55.920 --> 0:14:59.160 You know, I've talked about this with Nick plenty of times, 0:14:59.200 --> 0:15:02.560 but it seems like right now the administration is a 0:15:02.640 --> 0:15:06.680 bit sensitive to this discussion. And I'm just curious what 0:15:06.760 --> 0:15:09.120 you think you know and telling our viewers who maybe 0:15:09.120 --> 0:15:12.360 aren't paying as much attention to the weapons aspect. Is 0:15:12.400 --> 0:15:15.920 it a dire situation, is it a troubling situation? Where 0:15:15.960 --> 0:15:17.080 do you benchmark this at? 0:15:19.240 --> 0:15:23.040 I would put it at troubling, But you have to 0:15:23.120 --> 0:15:27.280 keep in mind that munitions covers a lot of territory, 0:15:27.320 --> 0:15:30.520 and there are some munitions where we have good stockpiles. 0:15:30.560 --> 0:15:38.800 For example, we're rebuilding stockpiles for ground munitions for and 0:15:38.840 --> 0:15:44.320 there are some short range ground attack munitions that we 0:15:44.360 --> 0:15:46.920 have pretty good stockpiles on. But there are other areas 0:15:47.000 --> 0:15:50.560 where we are short. The one place where we're really 0:15:50.640 --> 0:15:56.440 desperately short is defenses against ballistic missiles. And these are 0:15:56.480 --> 0:16:00.400 systems like Patriot, which many people have heard of AD 0:16:00.680 --> 0:16:04.960 and the Navy's SM three. We've used about half of 0:16:05.000 --> 0:16:09.080 those Patriot little more SM three a little less, and 0:16:09.120 --> 0:16:11.240 there are no good alternatives. 0:16:10.560 --> 0:16:13.600 Because, like I said, like a level those is it 0:16:13.640 --> 0:16:14.960 like a level that keeps you up at night? 0:16:17.920 --> 0:16:21.840 That would keep me up at night? Now you know, 0:16:21.880 --> 0:16:24.600 we have alternatives to some of the other munitions, and 0:16:24.640 --> 0:16:26.800 there are some things that have come out of the 0:16:26.800 --> 0:16:29.600 war that I think do help the torrents against China. 0:16:30.000 --> 0:16:32.640 But this is the this is an area where we 0:16:33.480 --> 0:16:35.480 are short. It's going to take a long time to 0:16:35.520 --> 0:16:37.760 read buildbos and there are no good substitutes. 0:16:37.840 --> 0:16:39.520 So Nick, come on in on here. You know, you 0:16:39.560 --> 0:16:42.000 cover national security from so many different angles, but let's 0:16:42.000 --> 0:16:46.680 go to our military stockpile and what you're hearing because 0:16:47.200 --> 0:16:50.160 the administration and I guess I understand it on some level, 0:16:50.200 --> 0:16:53.840 it's very defensive, no pun intended when it comes to 0:16:54.160 --> 0:16:57.960 any criticism about the size of military stockpiles. What do 0:16:58.000 --> 0:17:00.160 we know for real? And I do understand we have 0:17:00.240 --> 0:17:03.280 to keep some of this quiet because it is a security. 0:17:02.800 --> 0:17:04.360 Issue, right. 0:17:04.440 --> 0:17:08.760 I mean, it's very interesting because having covered US wars 0:17:08.800 --> 0:17:12.160 going back to Iraq in the early two thousands, I mean, 0:17:12.440 --> 0:17:16.320 as a reporter, I was used to constant daily, incessant 0:17:16.320 --> 0:17:20.960 briefings from the administration, certainly putting their spin on the 0:17:21.000 --> 0:17:25.080 state of US forces, number of casualties, territory. 0:17:24.600 --> 0:17:25.960 Stockpiles, things like that. 0:17:26.000 --> 0:17:28.600 And while a lot of this was considered a secret, 0:17:28.680 --> 0:17:31.679 you could get some estimation of where things stood. And 0:17:31.720 --> 0:17:35.120 this administration has taken a much different approach. It's much 0:17:35.160 --> 0:17:37.880 more difficult even to get assessment of damage on US 0:17:38.000 --> 0:17:42.400 bases in the region that have been hit by Iranian attacks. 0:17:42.400 --> 0:17:45.160 So there is so much that we don't know. What 0:17:45.200 --> 0:17:47.520 we can say, though, is that some of our reporting 0:17:47.560 --> 0:17:54.560 does suggest that the administration is making decisions partly because 0:17:54.720 --> 0:17:58.520 of concerns around stockpiles. So when you had the President 0:17:59.119 --> 0:18:03.639 essentially prompt missing to unleash a massive new military campaign 0:18:03.680 --> 0:18:06.439 against Iran a couple of weeks ago, and then the 0:18:06.520 --> 0:18:10.280 reporting suggested that US allies in the region were telling him, listen, 0:18:10.320 --> 0:18:12.520 we do not think this is the best path forward. 0:18:12.880 --> 0:18:15.760 We did have some indication at that time that concerns 0:18:15.800 --> 0:18:21.160 around strikes on US allies in the region Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, 0:18:21.320 --> 0:18:26.440 United Arab Emirates Cutter, for example, that the US understood 0:18:26.520 --> 0:18:29.520 it would not be able to defend them as well 0:18:29.600 --> 0:18:33.280 as it would want to because of concerns around its 0:18:33.320 --> 0:18:36.879 ability to knock down all of those incoming strikes from Iran. 0:18:36.960 --> 0:18:39.960 So it's a very complicated picture. There's a lot at play, 0:18:40.000 --> 0:18:41.960 there's a lot we don't know, but we can at 0:18:42.080 --> 0:18:45.200 least say that the evidence we're getting from the reporting 0:18:45.280 --> 0:18:49.199 does suggest that concerns around those stockpiles are starting to 0:18:49.280 --> 0:18:52.399 influence the way the administration does make decisions in the 0:18:52.440 --> 0:18:53.800 region about what it'll do next. 0:18:53.920 --> 0:18:56.280 And Nick, when you say not be able to defend 0:18:56.320 --> 0:18:58.560 our allies in the region as much as we'd want to, 0:18:58.880 --> 0:19:02.280 can you unpack that for listeners who maybe don't really 0:19:02.400 --> 0:19:04.080 understand the day to day of what you might be 0:19:04.160 --> 0:19:04.760 talking about. 0:19:05.520 --> 0:19:07.879 Well, I mean it's like what Mark said, I mean, 0:19:07.920 --> 0:19:10.080 if there's a ballistic missile that comes in, I mean, 0:19:10.080 --> 0:19:12.359 that's a very powerful weapon, and if it can't be 0:19:12.440 --> 0:19:15.919 defended against because there's a shortage of patriot missiles or 0:19:16.320 --> 0:19:20.840 they're being much more selective about their targeting, those sort 0:19:20.840 --> 0:19:24.600 of targeting decisions are going to be influenced based on 0:19:24.680 --> 0:19:27.240 your stockpiles. I mean, the US is starting to get 0:19:27.240 --> 0:19:31.280 into other forms of defense. They're not effective against ballistic missiles, 0:19:31.320 --> 0:19:35.160 but against against incoming drones. So they do have more 0:19:35.520 --> 0:19:39.720 counter drone defenses, and there are indications that they're ramping 0:19:39.800 --> 0:19:43.080 up production of those Patriot missiles. Of course, of course 0:19:43.119 --> 0:19:46.200 those take months or years to produce, but they are 0:19:46.200 --> 0:19:50.120 bringing in cheaper anti drone defenses. They're working on directed 0:19:50.240 --> 0:19:52.520 energy weapons. There's all sorts of stuff they're trying to 0:19:52.520 --> 0:19:56.919 bring to the region to defend against Iranian attacks. But 0:19:56.960 --> 0:20:00.440 the Uranian attacks are so varied, and the time lag 0:20:00.520 --> 0:20:04.600 between when you expend those munitions and then can resupply them. 0:20:05.040 --> 0:20:07.320 You know, if it's a cheap drone, okay, that's one thing. 0:20:07.359 --> 0:20:10.200 But if it's a pack three you know, Patriot interceptor, 0:20:10.520 --> 0:20:12.920 you know, those take years to produce and they cost, 0:20:13.000 --> 0:20:15.320 you know, millions of dollars, so there's a much longer 0:20:15.359 --> 0:20:18.320 time horizon to get those into the battlefield to be 0:20:18.359 --> 0:20:20.000 able to defend the US forces. 0:20:20.160 --> 0:20:20.360 Yep. 0:20:20.400 --> 0:20:23.240 Can't flip a switch quickly on that one. Hey, Mark, 0:20:23.520 --> 0:20:24.879 I want to go back to you for a moment. 0:20:25.400 --> 0:20:27.160 One of the things I keep thinking about with any 0:20:27.200 --> 0:20:30.000 of this is that I do feel like the cards 0:20:30.000 --> 0:20:33.159 are largely in the hands of the Iranians, and we 0:20:33.200 --> 0:20:35.320 did a President Trump come out on social this morning. 0:20:35.359 --> 0:20:37.359 The number one goal is and always will be that 0:20:37.440 --> 0:20:39.439 Aron cannot have in any way, shape or form a 0:20:39.520 --> 0:20:42.000 nuclear weapon. So we're back to that as the mission, 0:20:42.240 --> 0:20:44.400 which is what we all thought that mission was in 0:20:44.440 --> 0:20:46.920 the beginning, but it's kind of gotten tossed around here. 0:20:47.440 --> 0:20:52.439 From the Iranian perspective, this is existential for them. So 0:20:52.960 --> 0:20:55.080 what do we need to understand about where they are 0:20:55.119 --> 0:20:57.600 coming from and how long they're willing to keep this 0:20:57.720 --> 0:21:00.479 going again, going to what some say will be a 0:21:00.600 --> 0:21:03.600 forever war between the US and Iran. 0:21:05.480 --> 0:21:09.560 Well, I think that's right for the Iranian regime. This 0:21:09.600 --> 0:21:13.440 is an existential threat that the Israelis in the United 0:21:13.480 --> 0:21:17.120 States have threatened to overthrow the regime. Now the focus 0:21:17.200 --> 0:21:21.600 is back on nuclear weapons, but regime change would certainly, 0:21:22.640 --> 0:21:27.240 you know, was certainly discussed early early on, and the 0:21:27.320 --> 0:21:31.840