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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast and I'm Tom Keane

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Speaker 1: jay Ley. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg. Joyce

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Speaker 1: cheg with us now a head of research at JP Morgan.

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Speaker 1: Joyce has wonderful mathematical abilities out of Berkeley. We're thrilled

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Speaker 1: that she could join us. That's one of Joyce. We

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Speaker 1: had the honors talking to John Leoy's recently. It was

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Speaker 1: my research paper the summer, not on a forecast, but

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Speaker 1: on a model about the US tenure yield with migrate

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Speaker 1: lower and lower and dare I say JP Morgan alluded

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Speaker 1: to us UH negative interest rates as a possibility. Can

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Speaker 1: can the United States culturally, socially, financially handle negative interest rates?

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Speaker 1: Are we prepared to be like Germany and Switzerland? I

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Speaker 1: think in the US, I mean you could see negative

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Speaker 1: yields happen because we're just so close to that edge.

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Speaker 1: But as a matter of policy, negative deposit rates, I

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Speaker 1: do not see the Feds going there at all. Now

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Speaker 1: they're gonna have to stay with DROO rates. You know,

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Speaker 1: the forward guidance increasing the purchases is I think the

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Speaker 1: routes that are going to go and even yield curve control.

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Speaker 1: But I think the seed's going to go through a

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Speaker 1: lot more of the tool kit before they think that

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Speaker 1: would be the right option to take. And I think

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Speaker 1: pl comments would mean not very clear Joyce. There's an

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Speaker 1: interesting distinction here between market determined negative rates as we're

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Speaker 1: seeing in the United Kingdom and frankly as we have

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Speaker 1: seen in the US, perhaps not at sale but certainly

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Speaker 1: in post sale trading, and the actual policy rate. How

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Speaker 1: long can this continue where the market is pricing in

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Speaker 1: negative yields while the policy were at rate remains positive.

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Speaker 1: Everybody's going to just have to take a look at

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Speaker 1: what kind of recovery lies ahead. Now we're looking at

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Speaker 1: a third quarter rebound um that we think could be

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Speaker 1: around thirty seven percent annual live After going down so

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Speaker 1: hard in the first app now you're starting to see

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Speaker 1: the recovery take place. So you're gonna have a discussion

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Speaker 1: on just the path of the recovery. You know, we're

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Speaker 1: still a long ways from talking about inflation as being

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Speaker 1: a problem. There's a whole discussion on you know, deflationary risk.

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Speaker 1: You know that's really heating up in Japan in particular,

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Speaker 1: and so I think that, you know, this is something

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Speaker 1: that is going to take time. You could have negative

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Speaker 1: yields and flirting with those negative fields there for quite

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Speaker 1: some scient time, and we saw that happened after the

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Speaker 1: global financial crisis, and it's enduring now. So I don't

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Speaker 1: think that we're going to go away from this topic

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Speaker 1: anytime soon. Yeah, this is a question I've raised on

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Speaker 1: this program a couple of times. In Europe, we saw

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Speaker 1: that in twelve the front end of a lot of

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Speaker 1: core European sovereign debt markets was negative, several years before

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Speaker 1: negative rights actually became a reality at the policy levels.

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Speaker 1: What I think is quite interesting going forward is we

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Speaker 1: do face the very real prospect of the UK joining

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Speaker 1: the club. We've had two policymakers in the last few

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Speaker 1: days alone start to talk up negative interest rates. So

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Speaker 1: let's game this out a little bit. You can have

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Speaker 1: a negative policy rate the e c B, a negative

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Speaker 1: policy rate at the BOJ potentially, and at the Bank

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Speaker 1: of England all three, and then look at the Federal Reserve.

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Speaker 1: I see no willingness whatsoever to go there. We all

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Speaker 1: hope they don't. But let's talk about what they could

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Speaker 1: mean for the treasury market. If we have several big

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Speaker 1: and important central banks in the world with negative interest rates,

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Speaker 1: how that shapes the front end of the treasury market. Yeah, yeah, Look,

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Speaker 1: I think what you've seen that the Treasury do is

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Speaker 1: they announced for this quarter just record issuance. I mean

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Speaker 1: three trillion dollars. We haven't ever seen anything like that.

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Speaker 1: That I think is going to be very hard to

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Speaker 1: absorb you on the long end of it. But I

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Speaker 1: think you're right on the front end. Everybody is looking

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Speaker 1: at this global dynamic right now and the fact that

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Speaker 1: you have even emerging market central banks from learning the

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Speaker 1: qv right now, and still that you yields are coming

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Speaker 1: down there, so you know that you're going to move

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Speaker 1: into negative yields even if it's not the liberate policy,

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Speaker 1: I think it's just a reality that's with us right now.

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Speaker 1: Can you flip the reciprocal Joyce chain? Can you take

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Speaker 1: all this bond talk. I mean, that's all Pharaoll wants

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Speaker 1: to do, folks as bond talk, because look, for the

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Speaker 1: real dull this conversation, the real yield under discussion to

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Speaker 1: return Joyce chain. Can you flip the reciprocal and get

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Speaker 1: yourself to huge valuations for equities? I mean, I don't

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Speaker 1: even know what you do with a negative rate and

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Speaker 1: a flip reciprocal to get to a multiple of thirty

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Speaker 1: forty for a utility. But can you can you just

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Speaker 1: keep the linkage with bonds and equities intact? Well, I

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Speaker 1: think you're still going to see a winner takes all

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Speaker 1: UM strategy play out in equity. So the texaster has

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Speaker 1: moved away from the rest of the market that was

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Speaker 1: in place even before the pandemics, and now you're seeing

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Speaker 1: that even more exaggerated. So you know, on the equity

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Speaker 1: market there's going to be a focus on your earning dividends.

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Speaker 1: We've seen dividends being suspended in thirty three companies. We've

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Speaker 1: seen them being cut in um more companies as well.

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Speaker 1: So I think on the equity market, the focus is

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Speaker 1: once again going to be winner takes all. A lot

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Speaker 1: of the tech sector, you know, at the farm sector

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Speaker 1: has sort of moved away from where the rest of

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Speaker 1: the market is, and I think the debate will you

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Speaker 1: actually look at what's the what's the impact UM that

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Speaker 1: this is going to have as far as the duration

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Speaker 1: um and as you said with Europe, this went on

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Speaker 1: for you know, years, and is something that became Is

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Speaker 1: it exceptional? Is this like a fast um You'll fall

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Speaker 1: down in the in the GDP numbers and we're gonna

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Speaker 1: have a quick backup and we're normalizing to something or

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Speaker 1: are we really stuck in something that's much more in

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Speaker 1: the ways that could go on for a longer period

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Speaker 1: of time. Tom, I'm really glad you brought this up.

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Speaker 1: I've actually been giving a lot of thought to this,

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Speaker 1: and I was looking at sort of the fed bottle,

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Speaker 1: at the dividend yield, the earnings yield on the SMP

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Speaker 1: for example, versus treasuries and the problem that I have,

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Speaker 1: and Tom, maybe you've done more research on this than I.

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Speaker 1: The problem I have is how much is that dividend

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Speaker 1: yield forward looking? And how much have stock investors already

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Speaker 1: priced in some of the cuts that we're seeing Haliburton,

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Speaker 1: for example, today reducing its dividend by scent. You know,

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Speaker 1: how much is the bond market pricing in well more

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Speaker 1: than the dividend yield currently is. But this is brilliant

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Speaker 1: Joyce because what This comes down to your point, Joyce

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Speaker 1: Chang and winner takes all. Is the idea that we're

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Speaker 1: gonna have these few companies with persistent cash flows that

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Speaker 1: can lead to that dividend growth belief that Lisa is

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Speaker 1: talking about to get to a higher valuation. Joyce. Michael

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Speaker 1: Mabusian years ago at Credit Swiezen, like Mason, was brilliant

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Speaker 1: on this is that where we're heading, Joyce? And is

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Speaker 1: it just fewer winners? I mean, is that all this

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Speaker 1: is coming. It's not gonna be SMP five hundred, John,

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Speaker 1: It's gonna be SMP. Well, I think that's what we're seeing,

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Speaker 1: is that there's just more consolidation that's going on as

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Speaker 1: a result of this crisis. And you know, I think

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Speaker 1: a lot of people still look at the equity market

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Speaker 1: and say, look, this doesn't really reflect the growth expectations.

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Speaker 1: It's in line with the credit spread tightening. So this

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Speaker 1: still it goes back to the policy support that we're

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Speaker 1: seeing the said facilities, the fact that you've got you know,

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Speaker 1: high grade bond issue in this year hitting a record

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Speaker 1: one point six trillion, So is it about the growth

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Speaker 1: or is it about the credit spread tightening? The said

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Speaker 1: facilities um and um. Is this something where we're just

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Speaker 1: going to see greater concentration, which happens after a lot

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Speaker 1: of crisis. It's the survival of the fittest joyce fun

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Speaker 1: sense to catch the joyce of global research right now

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Speaker 1: out of physics at Yale in case Western is Matthew

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Speaker 1: Harrison and Morgan Stanley, who has an acuity on biotech

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Speaker 1: like no one out there. Matthew, what's the biggest hot

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Speaker 1: air you see right now? To John's point, and I

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Speaker 1: don't mean to pick on moderna, but what's the hot

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Speaker 1: arab biotechnology right now that you dismissed the most? Um?

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Speaker 1: I mean you're asking specifically related to COVID tom or

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Speaker 1: or something just to COVID. I mean COVID what we're

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Speaker 1: focused on. Matthew, Let's stay with that. What's the thing

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Speaker 1: that well, I don't think there's something that upsets me

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Speaker 1: the most. I mean I think I think the thing

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Speaker 1: for everybody to remember here is is twofold one. There's

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Speaker 1: a lot of early data and everybody is very focused

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Speaker 1: on looking for treatments, and I think companies are doing

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Speaker 1: the best job they can, but we should be careful

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Speaker 1: in understanding that data is early in data is subject

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Speaker 1: to change, and just being realistic about that. I think,

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Speaker 1: you know, you've got a lot of generalists and people

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Speaker 1: who don't typically look at these stocks, and so understanding

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Speaker 1: what we know and what we don't know, um, I

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Speaker 1: think is important. And I think it's a skill that

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Speaker 1: people are maybe getting used to because they didn't always

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Speaker 1: have to look at early data sets like this. So, Matt,

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Speaker 1: help us build their skill because I think it's absolutely critical.

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Speaker 1: It's a blind spot for so many of us. It's

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Speaker 1: your world, and I think at the moment, subconsciously people

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Speaker 1: are biased because they really want these potential vaccines to work.

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Speaker 1: We all want to believe they'll work. I also think

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Speaker 1: it's an obvious social stigma attached to journalists and analysts

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Speaker 1: and people more broadly. You aren't familiar with these names

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Speaker 1: to ask necessary questions to be skeptical. So can you

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Speaker 1: help establish some guard rails for us as for when

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Speaker 1: this news comes out again, this kind of news, how

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Speaker 1: we can look at it a little bit more critically. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think it's I think that the biggest understanding is

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Speaker 1: to know what we know and we know and so

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Speaker 1: I would say the core of the debate right now

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Speaker 1: is that we don't we still don't know what level

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Speaker 1: of antibodies are protective for people with COVID, and so

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Speaker 1: comparing results from vaccine studies or other clinical studies against

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Speaker 1: surrogate endpoints, right because what's been reported so far as

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Speaker 1: a surrogate end point, usually in a large scale study,

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Speaker 1: you're going to just test people who didn't get a

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Speaker 1: vaccine and people who got a vaccine and find out

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Speaker 1: if less people got infected with the disease who got

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Speaker 1: the vaccine. That's the that's the truth, the true sort

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Speaker 1: of market. But right now we're relying on surrogate endpoints,

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Speaker 1: and because we're so early in the stages of of

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Speaker 1: the outbreak, all of the work has not been done

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Speaker 1: to establish exactly what level of antibodies are protected. People

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Speaker 1: have guesses, we have ideas, we know what we should

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Speaker 1: focus on in terms of that, but I don't think

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Speaker 1: scientifically that debate has been settled, and so therefore, in

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Speaker 1: trying to understand um how to interpret results, that scientific

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Speaker 1: debate I think spills out into the media. I love

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Speaker 1: this line and a Drew Armstrong story of Bloomberg News.

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Speaker 1: By the standards of medical studies, such early partial data

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Speaker 1: are considered the territory of specialists and day traders. I

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Speaker 1: want to talk about the share sale that Moderna completed

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Speaker 1: late Monday, one point three billion dollars of stock sold,

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Speaker 1: arguably perhaps at the highs at of the recent moment,

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Speaker 1: and I'm wondering it, can you give us a pathway

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Speaker 1: from a vaccine, Matthew, to profits and how investors can

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Speaker 1: really value a first mover kind of advantage here. Sure,

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Speaker 1: we we've tried to think about what the market may

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Speaker 1: look like, and I described the market in two ways. Right,

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Speaker 1: there's in our view, there's going to be the pandemic market,

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Speaker 1: which probably lasts through two and then the endemic market.

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Speaker 1: And what I mean the difference there is, once you

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Speaker 1: get through the pandemic period and you have to vaccinate everybody,

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Speaker 1: try to vaccinate everybody, there's likely to be portions of

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Speaker 1: the population that haven't been vaccinated. These might mutate. Children

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Speaker 1: who are born need to be vaccinated, So that's going

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Speaker 1: to be smaller, but that might be a longer tail.

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Speaker 1: And so we've tried to price the vaccine, you know,

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Speaker 1: at least theoretically around the pricing of flu vaccines, which

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Speaker 1: are among the lowest of vaccines available, and so the

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Speaker 1: numbers we put the pandemic period is like between ten

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Speaker 1: and thirty billion dollars and the endemic period of somewhere

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Speaker 1: between two and twenty five. The reason for that wide range,

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Speaker 1: especially in the endemic period, is because we don't really

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Speaker 1: know how much of the population needs to be revaccinated,

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Speaker 1: either on an annual or or some other basis. Matthew,

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Speaker 1: what will the big companies do? I mean, there's the

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Speaker 1: idea of traditional pharmacology and then your esoteric world of biotech,

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Speaker 1: and everybody gets all leathered up and they go to lunch,

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Speaker 1: just to society which biotech company to buy? Is that?

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Speaker 1: What's the future of feeding frenzy of the bigger companies,

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Speaker 1: A bigger pharmacology companies buying up the biotechs. I think

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Speaker 1: that's a I think that's a theme right that that

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Speaker 1: we've we've observed for a while. UM. Biotech companies tend

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Speaker 1: to be more entrepreneurial, tend to take more risk, tend

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Speaker 1: to use new technologies and once they're proven and you know,

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Speaker 1: they might be a new a new way to move

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Speaker 1: quicker or move faster. Large companies tend to look at them,

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Speaker 1: and I think that the biggest differences. Sometimes smaller companies

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Speaker 1: have resources to focus on one small area where their

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Speaker 1: technology could work. But once you prove that, a big

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Speaker 1: company can say, well I can apply that for ten

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Speaker 1: or twenty ways, and they have the massive amount of

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Speaker 1: ability to push that forward. Matthew Harrison, thank you so much.

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Speaker 1: With Morgan Stanley today, I'm Ada and all of biotech.

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Speaker 1: Megan Dreen has had a wonderful set of academics and

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Speaker 1: then work in market economics, and now she has her

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Speaker 1: parchment out at the Harvard Kennedy School where she is

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Speaker 1: a senior fellow. Megan, are we still in the United

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Speaker 1: States where all this policy is stimulus? Are we finally

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Speaker 1: getting to the point where we're going to admit it's

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Speaker 1: about three million javas claims in its income substitution, wage substitution,

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Speaker 1: and and indeed demand assistance. So I think we are

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Speaker 1: getting to the ladder actually um and you can see

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Speaker 1: it in terms of you know who Joe Biden has

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Speaker 1: been bringing on to advise him, for example, So there

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Speaker 1: are signs that there might be a shift further towards

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Speaker 1: the last bringing people on like Stephanie Keelton, right, who's

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Speaker 1: a big MMT proponent. There. It's just the beginning of

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Speaker 1: a kernel of a hint that actually the Democratic Party

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Speaker 1: is starting to think maybe kind of a right to

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Speaker 1: point isn't gonna do it. We're gonna need to rethink

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Speaker 1: how we approached the economy because a lot of people,

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Speaker 1: you know, we're outraged that you know, half of Americans

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Speaker 1: made more now on this unemployment insurance and they did

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Speaker 1: in their regular jobs and thought that meant there was

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Speaker 1: a problem with the unemployment insurance. But that's not the problem.

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Speaker 1: The problem is that we've been paying people so little

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Speaker 1: to begin with, and now lots of them don't even

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Speaker 1: have jobs, so that we're looking at demand boosting, Megan brilliant.

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Speaker 1: But if if, if Mr Biden swings to a policy

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Speaker 1: prescription much like Europe, is the rest of America gonna

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Speaker 1: go with him? Or is he gonna hey the presidency

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Speaker 1: to a conservative America that flat out doesn't agree with

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Speaker 1: that prescription. Well that's a great question, and I think

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Speaker 1: anyone would be crazy to try to handicap the election

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Speaker 1: at this point. But sure, at Harvard, so you can

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Speaker 1: do that. I am at Harvard, But I think it's

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Speaker 1: honestly too too difficult to tell. Um. I do think

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Speaker 1: that people are realizing with this crisis that they weren't

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Speaker 1: before that you know, a lot about our economy is broken, right,

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Speaker 1: our healthcare is broken, our education is broken, We protect

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Speaker 1: the most vulnerable is broken. And so I do think,

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Speaker 1: you know, whether it's from the left side or maybe

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Speaker 1: even the right side, we're all going to have a

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Speaker 1: bigger role for the government in our lives. And that's

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Speaker 1: generally a pernicious thing. We don't like that. I mean,

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Speaker 1: higher taxes and maybe surveillance, contact tracing, all kinds of

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Speaker 1: negative things, but there could be a positive implications and

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Speaker 1: that maybe we start to rethink our economy and figure

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Speaker 1: out how to protect those most vulnerable, and perhaps we

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Speaker 1: should be doing that. But there is this terrible habit

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Speaker 1: and not saying you're doing it, Megan, because I know

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Speaker 1: you're not. There's just a terrible habit at the moment

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Speaker 1: of looking down your nose at people who are taking entitlement,

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Speaker 1: spending if it's benefits, whatever it is, welfare, if its

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Speaker 1: employment benefits, and believing that somehow people would rather be

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Speaker 1: on that than have a job. I don't know anyone

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Speaker 1: that would prefer to have a handout over having a

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Speaker 1: job and having that empowering moment of going to work.

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Speaker 1: And for me, Megan, the story going into November is

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Speaker 1: who's got the message to say that we're going to

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Speaker 1: create the most jobs, They're going to be well paid jobs,

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Speaker 1: and this is how we're going to do it. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and this time really is different in that you can

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Speaker 1: easily look and say, actually, all these people out of work,

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Speaker 1: it is not their fault, right, the virus is nobody's fault.

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Speaker 1: And so that doesn't mean there is opportunity for kind

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Speaker 1: of social mobilization here in a way that there hasn't

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Speaker 1: been in the past. Um So I do. I do

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Speaker 1: think there could be hoped for some kind of change

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Speaker 1: on that front. And if you look at history, right,

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Speaker 1: to be any guests and Council's Last of the UK

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Speaker 1: came out of World Wars, Social security came out of

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Speaker 1: the Great Depression. So stranger things have happened. I will

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Speaker 1: say that, Megan. The conversation in Washington seems to be shifting,

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Speaker 1: at least among Republicans to tying the next phase of

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Speaker 1: rescue financing to employment with a payroll tax cut. Or

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Speaker 1: other types of sort of employment contingent benefits. How do

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Speaker 1: you see that factoring into the next phase of recovery,

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Speaker 1: if at all, given that the previous rounds were really

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Speaker 1: focused on the unemployed, the people who are furloughed or

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Speaker 1: lost their jobs as a result of the pandemic. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think you point out a weakness and the approach

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Speaker 1: going forward, and there's also an inherent reticence among Republicans

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Speaker 1: it seems to actually spend much more money. We saw

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Speaker 1: this in two thousand and eight, two thousand nine as well,

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Speaker 1: where you've got a few rounds of funding past and

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Speaker 1: everyone figured we would just do the rest and perfect

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Speaker 1: this UM in future rounds, and then quickly discovered the

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Speaker 1: political capital wasn't really there to pass more ouns. And

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Speaker 1: I think we'll have more rounds of this still stimulus here,

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Speaker 1: but I think that the conversation is increasingly shifting, UM

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Speaker 1: towards the skeptical side on spending more money on this

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Speaker 1: in the way it's being directed, as you point out,

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Speaker 1: as towards you know, tax tweaks that aren't really going

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Speaker 1: to help people who don't have jobs or pensioners for example. Um,

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Speaker 1: that's worrisome. I think no one should be actually worried

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Speaker 1: about how to pay for this war right now. That's

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Speaker 1: a totally inappropriate question to be asking at this point.

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Speaker 1: Defin financing is the answer for the US. Megan Green,

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Speaker 1: what's the Green Genie coefficient look like for America? I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's a it's a complex math and it's a complex geometry,

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Speaker 1: but it's real simple. Inequalities are gonna widen. James Diamond

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Speaker 1: is talking about it and others. Is it just simple

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Speaker 1: you would believe out of this pandemic inequality widens yep.

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Speaker 1: I think unfortunately, inequality gets worse. Um, the people who

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Speaker 1: lost their jobs were the hourly service workers who's never

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Speaker 1: got wage games in the past recoveries, so they hadn't

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Speaker 1: even gotten back on their feet since the last crisis

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Speaker 1: and now they've been n sut down again. Market concentration

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Speaker 1: should increase significantly, which undermines workers ability to negotiate their

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Speaker 1: wages with big companies with access to capital markets take

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Speaker 1: over for the small independent shops that are getting wiped

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Speaker 1: out by this. Unfortunately, I think there will be greater inequality,

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Speaker 1: will have higher taxes off the back of this, So

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Speaker 1: maybe there will be some distribution to off set a

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Speaker 1: bit of that, But generally I think the US has

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Speaker 1: had a problem with income inequality going into this. The

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Speaker 1: Genie coefficient is just under point five percent in the US,

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Speaker 1: which is pretty high and rising, and it's just gonna

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Speaker 1: go higher. Is the FED exacerbating that? I mean, the

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Speaker 1: focus really very much on the Federal Reserve and its actions,

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Speaker 1: especially given the disagreements in Congress. But a lot of

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Speaker 1: the FED stimulus has really gone toward corporations, and I'm

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Speaker 1: wondering how much that's factoring in here to the wealth gap.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, every action by the FED has distributed effects, UM,

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Speaker 1: and it ad exacerbating that. Although the FED is also

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Speaker 1: providing funding the small businesses UM and so that feeds

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Speaker 1: through into those who are more vulnerable. UM. That being said,

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Speaker 1: you know, the set half stepped in, So I actually

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Speaker 1: think we can't blame the FET on this one. UM.

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Speaker 1: Maybe further down the line we'll figure I need to

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Speaker 1: figure out how to tweak this. But the FED right

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Speaker 1: now had to step into get rid of market dislocations,

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Speaker 1: without which we would have had UM an even bigger

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Speaker 1: crisis that would have hit the most vulnerable. Evening you

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Speaker 1: know better than that. We will find a way of

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Speaker 1: blaming the Federal Reserve. And they've been at Harvard for

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Speaker 1: a little while. But that's not how this works. You

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Speaker 1: know that we find ways to blame the feed. That's

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Speaker 1: what we do on shows like this. She had her

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Speaker 1: choice of like six schools, and she just took the

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Speaker 1: one closest to Fenway Park. I know exactly the reasoning

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Speaker 1: of it, but I just you know, you know, being

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Speaker 1: around academia just a month too long. That's what we

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Speaker 1: do here. We blame the feed for stuff. Megan, We

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Speaker 1: love thank you for joining us. Megan Green. Of Harvard

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Speaker 1: away from the Bloomberg School of Public Health is their

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Speaker 1: huge medical establishment. Lawrence is expert at j h U

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Speaker 1: in emergency medicine, and I asked her not about the death,

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Speaker 1: but about the case dynamics right now here is Lawrence soer.

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Speaker 1: We're seeing a lot of cases of um middle aged

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Speaker 1: Americans who have these co morbidities, but we're also seeing

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Speaker 1: younger people as well. UM. So, I think the early

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Speaker 1: data that that we saw that this is all affecting

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Speaker 1: the elderly with the co morbid populations is not necessarily true.

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Speaker 1: We have a wide age range UM in our population,

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Speaker 1: we have a lot of essential workers who have been

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Speaker 1: working this whole time. We have a very large Hispanic

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Speaker 1: population that we're serving at Hopkins right now, and I

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Speaker 1: think that's true in many cities across the country. It's

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Speaker 1: fascinating in the cd IDA know that in certain geographies

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Speaker 1: we're going back and yet the younger people going back

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Speaker 1: and all that. When you see younger people trying to

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Speaker 1: get back to what we knew, do you feel like

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Speaker 1: they're at a greater risk because they think the only

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Speaker 1: one that gets the virus is seventy five and over.

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Speaker 1: I think that early messaging about it only being the

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Speaker 1: elderly didn't help. I think we saw young people resistant

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Speaker 1: to social distancing, resistant to some of the other public

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Speaker 1: health approaches that we use UM. And you know, they

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Speaker 1: were exactly like you're saying, we're still going out. They

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Speaker 1: were still interacting socially and and I think we're seeing

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Speaker 1: the effects of that, that resistance to adopting these measures.

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Speaker 1: I think that's what we're seeing right now. I also

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Speaker 1: think that these people are UM. They are part of

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Speaker 1: the essential workforce, so we're seeing healthcare workers were across

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Speaker 1: the country we're seeing people from these meat packing plants,

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Speaker 1: from farms, from food processing centers UM and, and they

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Speaker 1: are younger UM folks as well. Laurens talk to me

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Speaker 1: a little bit about this modernal vaccine that then we

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Speaker 1: had reports yesterday that it just didn't give us enough

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Speaker 1: information to knew whether it was going in the right direction.

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Speaker 1: Are we going to have news flows like that more regularly.

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Speaker 1: It's not uncommon for these companies to put out press releases,

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Speaker 1: but usually they have data attached to them. UM. This

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Speaker 1: report showed that the UM, the people in the study,

431
00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:30,879
Speaker 1: eight people that they had UM conducted the full review

432
00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:35,200
Speaker 1: of had neutralizing antibodies, which is good. So UM they

433
00:23:35,200 --> 00:23:38,040
Speaker 1: basically saw that people in four of the different arms

434
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:42,480
Speaker 1: that they built UM developed neutralizing antibodies. The challenge with

435
00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:45,640
Speaker 1: it only being eight people is partially because it takes

436
00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:49,120
Speaker 1: a long time to do the neutralizing antibody research. UM

437
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:50,960
Speaker 1: and we didn't hear from the other I think it

438
00:23:51,000 --> 00:23:55,040
Speaker 1: was thirty thirty five or thirty six trial participants as

439
00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:59,560
Speaker 1: to how they did or why they didn't develop neutralizing antibodies,

440
00:23:59,640 --> 00:24:02,440
Speaker 1: or even if they didn't develop them. UM we need

441
00:24:02,480 --> 00:24:06,159
Speaker 1: more time to understand those data and so there's no

442
00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:10,560
Speaker 1: there's no way to know what these data mean. UM.

443
00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:12,800
Speaker 1: And so I think that's what we're all waiting for.

444
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:15,560
Speaker 1: We're waiting for that resulting data set to do that

445
00:24:15,640 --> 00:24:18,359
Speaker 1: analysis to know if the response is going to be durable,

446
00:24:18,720 --> 00:24:21,280
Speaker 1: to know, um, you know what the rest of that

447
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:24,080
Speaker 1: vaccine population looks like. So I think we still have

448
00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:28,320
Speaker 1: a ways to go. UM. It was a surprisingly upbeat

449
00:24:29,080 --> 00:24:33,520
Speaker 1: uh result, but I think it is definitely a positive finding.

450
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:35,119
Speaker 1: We just we just have to wait and see what

451
00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:37,480
Speaker 1: happens next. What do you make of what we've heard

452
00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:39,800
Speaker 1: from the World Health Organization overall? So we had the

453
00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:44,439
Speaker 1: Health Assembly, who's in charge of briefing governments in this

454
00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:47,480
Speaker 1: Do you rely on the World Health Organization or is

455
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:49,800
Speaker 1: it each country for their own Yeah? I think the

456
00:24:49,840 --> 00:24:54,640
Speaker 1: World Health Organization is still our number one leading international body, UM,

457
00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:58,120
Speaker 1: serving all of these member states and UM, they are

458
00:24:58,200 --> 00:25:02,160
Speaker 1: putting in place the structure which this entire international response

459
00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:05,439
Speaker 1: is happening. UM. We did here. You know, it's a

460
00:25:05,480 --> 00:25:08,639
Speaker 1: digital World Health Assembly. It's just a couple of days,

461
00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:10,680
Speaker 1: so I think it's not going to be the same

462
00:25:10,720 --> 00:25:13,560
Speaker 1: as it normally is. We did hear calls from the

463
00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:16,520
Speaker 1: EU and Australia for an inquiry into the origins of

464
00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:19,760
Speaker 1: the COVID nineteen outbreak, which UM clearly seems to be

465
00:25:19,840 --> 00:25:24,119
Speaker 1: directed at China, even though China wasn't specifically named UM,

466
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:27,760
Speaker 1: and I think that there is some there remains some

467
00:25:27,800 --> 00:25:33,920
Speaker 1: political politicization around UM China's role in this outbreak response.

468
00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:37,000
Speaker 1: So UM not even the origins, but but how that

469
00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:40,000
Speaker 1: early response occurred. And so I think we'll continue to

470
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:43,920
Speaker 1: see tensions around the Assembly, but we have to continue

471
00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:46,120
Speaker 1: to support the w h O and their role in

472
00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:50,800
Speaker 1: in global pandemic preparedness and response. Lauren love to talk

473
00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 1: to JOHNS Hopkins University really quite brave an emergency medicine

474
00:25:55,160 --> 00:26:02,280
Speaker 1: down there, that first line that we see at any hospital. Well,

475
00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:05,080
Speaker 1: Sweeten and I wanted to find somebody who could rationalize

476
00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:09,400
Speaker 1: down thousand. That would be Ron Temple of Lazard, head

477
00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:11,960
Speaker 1: of US Equities, and of course one of our most

478
00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:16,640
Speaker 1: astute guests, with his experience on Wall Street about trying

479
00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:21,080
Speaker 1: to push away the noise. Ron, We've never seen the

480
00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:24,639
Speaker 1: noise like this. We've got plus unemployment rate on and on.

481
00:26:24,800 --> 00:26:27,800
Speaker 1: You know, the drill is, well, how do I keep

482
00:26:27,880 --> 00:26:32,600
Speaker 1: my mind focused on thousand. I'm trying to make seven

483
00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:36,080
Speaker 1: percent a year and someday out there it will be

484
00:26:36,160 --> 00:26:41,080
Speaker 1: Dow fifty Tho, how do I maintain that discipline? Well,

485
00:26:41,080 --> 00:26:43,640
Speaker 1: that's that's a really tough challenge obviously, So I think

486
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:46,400
Speaker 1: you know, in the near term, I would caution about

487
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:48,040
Speaker 1: getting too caught up in the day to day and

488
00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:50,080
Speaker 1: really start thinking what to try to keep yourself thinking

489
00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:53,440
Speaker 1: about the long term investment potential of different companies. Um

490
00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 1: when you're making these investments, I would say point number

491
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:57,640
Speaker 1: one is it's really important to be active right now.

492
00:26:57,680 --> 00:27:00,480
Speaker 1: I think you're gonna have a lot of disperse within

493
00:27:00,520 --> 00:27:03,119
Speaker 1: this market over the next day, twelve to eighteen months

494
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:07,520
Speaker 1: as the economic implications unfold. Some companies aren't gonna make it,

495
00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:09,840
Speaker 1: some companies will make it but by the skin of

496
00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:11,920
Speaker 1: their teeth, and some companies actually are going to thrive

497
00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:13,560
Speaker 1: and pick up market share. And so when you're really

498
00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:16,080
Speaker 1: thinking about how you're going to achieve your investment objectives

499
00:27:16,119 --> 00:27:18,640
Speaker 1: over the next day, five to ten years, I think

500
00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:20,720
Speaker 1: it's critical to really focus on the companies with the

501
00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:23,879
Speaker 1: balance sheet strength and the funding and liquidity profiles to

502
00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:26,720
Speaker 1: make it through this downturn, and not only make it through,

503
00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:30,240
Speaker 1: but win some extra competitive advantage market share and grow

504
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:32,919
Speaker 1: their profit potential. So I think that should be the

505
00:27:32,920 --> 00:27:35,800
Speaker 1: eye on the prize is picking those securities and avoiding

506
00:27:35,960 --> 00:27:37,879
Speaker 1: avoiding the losers, which we obviously all try to do

507
00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:40,080
Speaker 1: on a daily basis. Tom, I think one of the

508
00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:42,760
Speaker 1: reasons you like Ron is because he is a Duke

509
00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:49,639
Speaker 1: graduate and we all know there absolutely so, Tom, as

510
00:27:49,720 --> 00:27:52,640
Speaker 1: you think about kind of where we are right now,

511
00:27:53,080 --> 00:27:57,160
Speaker 1: a really solid rebound off of that pull back when

512
00:27:57,160 --> 00:28:00,240
Speaker 1: the you know, the pandemic really gripped the mark get

513
00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:02,960
Speaker 1: back there in early in mid March, do you feel

514
00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 1: comfortable where the market is here or do you think

515
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:06,600
Speaker 1: feel like it's gotten a little bit ahead of itself

516
00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:10,400
Speaker 1: given some of that dire economic data that we're experiencing

517
00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:13,399
Speaker 1: and like it experience in the quarters to come. You know,

518
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:15,560
Speaker 1: it's it's interesting that when we look at the market,

519
00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:18,639
Speaker 1: I mean, the market itself has rebounded a lot, Like

520
00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:21,240
Speaker 1: you say that the market as of yesterday's close was

521
00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:23,000
Speaker 1: down just under ten percent from the peak, but the

522
00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:25,840
Speaker 1: median stock was down se So I think one thing

523
00:28:25,880 --> 00:28:28,680
Speaker 1: to be careful of is the index tells one story,

524
00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:31,120
Speaker 1: but there are a lot of different stories underneath that index.

525
00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:34,600
Speaker 1: That said, I do worry that the market is a

526
00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:37,760
Speaker 1: little ahead of itself in terms of optimism and and

527
00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:42,280
Speaker 1: not necessarily thinking comprehensively enough about the scenarios that might unfold.

528
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:44,960
Speaker 1: For example, I mean, I'm very you know, it was

529
00:28:45,080 --> 00:28:47,440
Speaker 1: very good to see positive news coming out regarding the

530
00:28:47,440 --> 00:28:50,400
Speaker 1: potential for a vaccine on Monday. UM. I do think

531
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:52,959
Speaker 1: that's good news. But our analysis still says at the

532
00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:56,360
Speaker 1: earliest you get a vaccine for COVID nineteen that's available

533
00:28:56,400 --> 00:29:00,400
Speaker 1: for widespread use early next year. Now that based is

534
00:29:00,640 --> 00:29:04,200
Speaker 1: one scenario. UM. What that doesn't take into account is

535
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:07,080
Speaker 1: the risk that you get second or third waves of infections. UM.

536
00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:09,880
Speaker 1: So I've been watching, for example, very closely in Germany

537
00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:14,040
Speaker 1: one month ago today they started reopening small small businesses,

538
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:17,600
Speaker 1: say shops. I think the limit was up to square feet. UM.

539
00:29:17,720 --> 00:29:20,360
Speaker 1: We're starting to, you know, really carefully watch the infection

540
00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:22,920
Speaker 1: numbers in the new case numbers to see what happens

541
00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:24,640
Speaker 1: when you start to reopen. So I don't think the

542
00:29:24,680 --> 00:29:27,600
Speaker 1: market is necessarily pricing in the risk of a second

543
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:30,600
Speaker 1: or third wave. UM, the risk that the vaccines might

544
00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:33,280
Speaker 1: not be available as quickly as possible, and how that

545
00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:36,200
Speaker 1: will play out in different parts of the market. Ron,

546
00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:38,800
Speaker 1: there's so many obvious questions Paul and I want to

547
00:29:38,840 --> 00:29:43,000
Speaker 1: talk to you about over the next three hours. But uh, Ron,

548
00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:46,240
Speaker 1: I've I've really got to ask about how you approach

549
00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:50,080
Speaker 1: these wonder stocks that just go up and up and up.

550
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:54,440
Speaker 1: But obviously it's associated with Jim Kramer's wonderful phrase the frames,

551
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:57,400
Speaker 1: and I get all that as well, but the tenors

552
00:29:57,400 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 1: so stocks out there, what do you do? I mean,

553
00:30:01,480 --> 00:30:03,680
Speaker 1: if you own them, what do you do? And do

554
00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:07,920
Speaker 1: you climb on board if you're not well? I think

555
00:30:08,360 --> 00:30:11,560
Speaker 1: the biggest challenge with some of these Part one. This

556
00:30:11,640 --> 00:30:13,520
Speaker 1: kind of goes back to our first question when when

557
00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:15,800
Speaker 1: I'm thinking about these companies, I'm thinking about what does

558
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:18,520
Speaker 1: their balance sheet look like? Um, do they have a

559
00:30:18,520 --> 00:30:21,280
Speaker 1: lot of cash on the balance sheet? What strategic optionality

560
00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:23,560
Speaker 1: is that going to give them over the next few years.

561
00:30:24,000 --> 00:30:25,840
Speaker 1: And by the way, you know, I'm assuming we're talking

562
00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:28,520
Speaker 1: primarily tech stocks. If I think back to twelve months ago,

563
00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:30,640
Speaker 1: a lot of the tech industry seemed to be in

564
00:30:30,680 --> 00:30:34,800
Speaker 1: a kind of regulatory political reputation of bull's eye. If anything,

565
00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:37,600
Speaker 1: They've come through this looking better and have proven in

566
00:30:37,640 --> 00:30:39,920
Speaker 1: many cases that they're more mission critical than people would

567
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:42,920
Speaker 1: have thought of, so their position is improved there in

568
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:46,160
Speaker 1: some cases not all. They've got great balance sheets where

569
00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:49,400
Speaker 1: they can actually pull off buying in even more capabilities,

570
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:52,640
Speaker 1: or basically developing their own where some of their competitors

571
00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:55,600
Speaker 1: who have weak balance sheets are no longer as competitive. Um,

572
00:30:55,680 --> 00:30:58,400
Speaker 1: and then I'm thinking about again, what's their balance sheet potential?

573
00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:00,360
Speaker 1: And I think the key with any of these docks

574
00:31:00,440 --> 00:31:04,160
Speaker 1: is is a real balancing act here of thinking far

575
00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:07,600
Speaker 1: enough into the future that you don't miss the potential,

576
00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:10,440
Speaker 1: but not getting so irrational that you say, well, if

577
00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:12,600
Speaker 1: you think out twenty years, they're going to really be great. Well,

578
00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:15,080
Speaker 1: You're twenty years is pretty far beyond anyone's crystal ball.

579
00:31:15,520 --> 00:31:17,920
Speaker 1: So so trying to kind of balance out how far

580
00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:20,320
Speaker 1: you have to think in the future, recognizing it maybe

581
00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:23,040
Speaker 1: on a short term basis they get overvalued, but you

582
00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:24,479
Speaker 1: know what, they might grow their earnings in the next

583
00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:26,040
Speaker 1: six or twelve months enough to make you think I

584
00:31:26,080 --> 00:31:27,480
Speaker 1: want to buy it back at the same price, so

585
00:31:27,520 --> 00:31:29,560
Speaker 1: then you shouldn't be selling it. I mean, Paul, this

586
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:32,440
Speaker 1: is fascinating because I think so many of our listeners,

587
00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:35,400
Speaker 1: including me. Long term is a three year vision on

588
00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:39,960
Speaker 1: Amazon or Netflix or whatever. Amazon another all time high today,

589
00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:43,080
Speaker 1: so roun You know. One of the things that people

590
00:31:43,120 --> 00:31:45,800
Speaker 1: have been talking about I find fascinating is will this

591
00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:51,080
Speaker 1: pandemic fundamentally alter consumer behavior in any ways? And if so,

592
00:31:51,720 --> 00:31:54,520
Speaker 1: how do you plan for it as from an investment standpoint?

593
00:31:54,600 --> 00:31:56,800
Speaker 1: Or you know, is it just working from home more?

594
00:31:56,840 --> 00:31:59,320
Speaker 1: Are people are going to spend less, save more? Are

595
00:31:59,360 --> 00:32:03,400
Speaker 1: you starting to think about some of these bigger macro issues. Yeah,

596
00:32:03,600 --> 00:32:05,840
Speaker 1: we're definitely thinking about that. I do think, by the way,

597
00:32:05,880 --> 00:32:08,640
Speaker 1: there's a propensity to assume during a downturn or a

598
00:32:08,640 --> 00:32:12,520
Speaker 1: crisis that everything's going to change forever. Well, the reality is,

599
00:32:12,560 --> 00:32:14,560
Speaker 1: I think as soon as restaurants and bars are open,

600
00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:16,040
Speaker 1: a lot of people are going to be pretty eager

601
00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:18,760
Speaker 1: to go back, assuming they know they're safe. Right. So,

602
00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:20,840
Speaker 1: so to me, the kind of the milestone I'm really

603
00:32:20,840 --> 00:32:25,000
Speaker 1: watching for is a vaccine that we can use broadly globally. Now,

604
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:27,120
Speaker 1: Once that vaccines available, I think a lot of things

605
00:32:27,120 --> 00:32:28,520
Speaker 1: are going to go back to the way they were.

606
00:32:29,080 --> 00:32:31,000
Speaker 1: Some of the things I think won't. I do think

607
00:32:31,000 --> 00:32:33,320
Speaker 1: working from home will become more common that's been discussed

608
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:35,520
Speaker 1: a lot, but that does have complications for how many

609
00:32:35,560 --> 00:32:38,840
Speaker 1: miles people drive, It has implications for oil consumption, for

610
00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:41,960
Speaker 1: transport us. But when I really step back, I think

611
00:32:41,960 --> 00:32:44,840
Speaker 1: the thing that has not been discussed enough is what's

612
00:32:44,840 --> 00:32:47,680
Speaker 1: going to happen to savings and spending behavior in general,

613
00:32:47,720 --> 00:32:51,040
Speaker 1: because coming out of this countries companies and households are

614
00:32:51,040 --> 00:32:53,120
Speaker 1: gonna have a lot more debt. And by the way,

615
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:55,760
Speaker 1: really importantly, even a year ago, early this year, I

616
00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:59,480
Speaker 1: was talking before COVID about the upcoming crisis we're gonna

617
00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:02,600
Speaker 1: have on the retronment side, half the baby boomers have retired,

618
00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:05,080
Speaker 1: the other half are within a decade of retirement, and

619
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:07,560
Speaker 1: in general, making a broad speaking statement, they don't have

620
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:10,880
Speaker 1: enough savings to retire. Even before that rip up the

621
00:33:10,880 --> 00:33:13,160
Speaker 1: script here, it's like, you know, around you know, Roger

622
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:16,760
Speaker 1: Ferguson is leading this debate. What is the national solution down?

623
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 1: Isn't it just for starters to increase the amount people

624
00:33:21,080 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 1: can put aside? Well, you know, I think what we

625
00:33:24,400 --> 00:33:26,520
Speaker 1: found in our study of the retirement crisis is not

626
00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:28,520
Speaker 1: that people could put need to put more aside if

627
00:33:28,560 --> 00:33:31,120
Speaker 1: they don't have the income to put anything aside. I mean,

628
00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:33,680
Speaker 1: so when we look at the pretrache of household you know,

629
00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:36,120
Speaker 1: if you think about defined benefit programs are largely gone.

630
00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:38,040
Speaker 1: I think it's around thirty percent of the country still

631
00:33:38,080 --> 00:33:41,360
Speaker 1: has access to a dB program. Of the people other

632
00:33:41,560 --> 00:33:44,000
Speaker 1: other than that, sixty of the people have a defined

633
00:33:44,040 --> 00:33:47,520
Speaker 1: contribution program have nothing. You've got a lot of people

634
00:33:47,520 --> 00:33:49,760
Speaker 1: who don't have a dime put away in a retirement account,

635
00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:51,480
Speaker 1: and part of the reason for that is they just

636
00:33:51,520 --> 00:33:53,360
Speaker 1: don't make enough money to pay their bills today, much

637
00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:55,680
Speaker 1: less put away money for retirement. So I think it's

638
00:33:55,720 --> 00:33:58,200
Speaker 1: going to be multifaceted in terms of solution. One is

639
00:33:58,240 --> 00:34:01,400
Speaker 1: there's gonna have to be more generous social Security benefits, which,

640
00:34:01,440 --> 00:34:02,840
Speaker 1: by the way, is the opposite of what a lot

641
00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:04,760
Speaker 1: of the conversation has been for the last twenty years.

642
00:34:05,040 --> 00:34:07,080
Speaker 1: But maybe it just needs to be more progressive where

643
00:34:07,080 --> 00:34:09,360
Speaker 1: you're really focusing those resources on people who need it

644
00:34:09,440 --> 00:34:12,440
Speaker 1: the most. Um, too, is allowing people to put money away.

645
00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:15,680
Speaker 1: Three is making it more accessible. We found is around

646
00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:18,760
Speaker 1: the people who work for small businesses have no access

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Speaker 1: to a defined contribution program at all. The employer doesn't

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Speaker 1: offer it. So let's find a way to offer it,

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Speaker 1: not through the employers, so you always have access to

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Speaker 1: a four oh one K. And so I think there

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Speaker 1: are a number of things we can do around getting

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Speaker 1: access to programs, reinforcing the stability of social security and frankly,

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Speaker 1: reinforcing this financial solvency of defined benefit programs that are

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Speaker 1: still out there because they're really critical to a big

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Speaker 1: part of the population. Run Temple, We're gonna get you

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Speaker 1: back on to do this again. I'd love to do

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Speaker 1: a joint interview with you and uh. Uh Roger Ferguson

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Speaker 1: a t I A craft on this with his leadership

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Speaker 1: on this issue, folks, huge deal and was shout out

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Speaker 1: in Boston to Boston College, which I think is just

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00:34:57,880 --> 00:35:01,879
Speaker 1: the best retirement center. Uh. Going round Temple from Duke

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Speaker 1: University is with Lazari. Thank you so much, Run for

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Speaker 1: joining us today. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast.

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Speaker 1: Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or

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00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:18,399
Speaker 1: whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom

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Speaker 1: Keane before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide.

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Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio