1 00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:06,800 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along 3 00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:18,680 Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern join us each day 4 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:22,280 Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics 5 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:24,920 Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are 6 00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,680 Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine 7 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or 8 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:33,960 Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg 9 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:36,879 Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. We begin with our 10 00:00:36,880 --> 00:00:39,519 Speaker 2: top story, stocks on track for a fifth straight day 11 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:43,040 Speaker 2: of gains following a week of softer than expected inflation data. 12 00:00:43,200 --> 00:00:46,000 Speaker 2: Darrel Cronk of Wells Fargo saying the following, as the 13 00:00:46,080 --> 00:00:48,800 Speaker 2: S and P five hundred makes news highs, it's important 14 00:00:48,840 --> 00:00:52,920 Speaker 2: for investors to rebalance to avoid portfolio equity concentration risk, 15 00:00:53,240 --> 00:00:56,680 Speaker 2: trim tech and communications services to neutral waitings. 16 00:00:56,760 --> 00:00:58,560 Speaker 1: Darrell joined us for more. Darren, good morning to you. 17 00:00:58,680 --> 00:01:01,960 Speaker 2: Good morning, jar What did you can opening exchange with us? 18 00:01:02,120 --> 00:01:04,320 Speaker 1: I'm with you one hundred percent. I mean, so everybody 19 00:01:04,400 --> 00:01:07,360 Speaker 1: knows the concentrated returns. I just ran the numbers yesterday. 20 00:01:07,400 --> 00:01:09,280 Speaker 1: If you look at just the top five names, right, 21 00:01:09,280 --> 00:01:13,080 Speaker 1: not the top ten, top five, they're driving about eighty 22 00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:16,560 Speaker 1: two percent of the index thirteen to fourteen percent year 23 00:01:16,560 --> 00:01:19,400 Speaker 1: to date return. So strip that out, you're you're up 24 00:01:19,440 --> 00:01:23,399 Speaker 1: maybe two three percent you're to date on the broad level. 25 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:27,800 Speaker 1: But maybe what's more important is when you look at 26 00:01:27,800 --> 00:01:31,120 Speaker 1: those names, the top five ten names, the correlations are 27 00:01:31,120 --> 00:01:34,640 Speaker 1: as high as they've been since August of nineteen ninety seven, right, 28 00:01:35,080 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 1: So what's that tell you? It tells you that people 29 00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:40,160 Speaker 1: are chasing, right, they're chasing those winners and continuing to 30 00:01:40,200 --> 00:01:43,440 Speaker 1: feed into it. And to Lisa's very good point, if 31 00:01:43,440 --> 00:01:45,919 Speaker 1: you take the Nasdaq one hundred against the Russell two thousand, 32 00:01:46,040 --> 00:01:49,880 Speaker 1: so tech against small cap five year wides, right, I 33 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:52,640 Speaker 1: mean we're at the widest level we've been. So you know, 34 00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:56,280 Speaker 1: small cap continues to underperform. Not surprisingly. I keep getting 35 00:01:56,320 --> 00:01:59,040 Speaker 1: asked every conference room I go into every meeting, when's 36 00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:00,880 Speaker 1: the time to buy small wins? It time to buy 37 00:02:00,920 --> 00:02:02,840 Speaker 1: a small cap? And I keep saying, not yet, not yet, 38 00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:06,680 Speaker 1: not yet? Right, when is the sun? I the rustle too, 39 00:02:06,680 --> 00:02:09,519 Speaker 1: probably needs to be somewhere in the eighteen hundreds, maybe 40 00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:12,200 Speaker 1: even seventeen hundreds before. I think you get a compelling 41 00:02:12,320 --> 00:02:15,680 Speaker 1: risk reward to flip there. That makes sense, but nowhere 42 00:02:15,680 --> 00:02:16,680 Speaker 1: here above two thousand. 43 00:02:16,880 --> 00:02:19,320 Speaker 3: So why do you have this argument that you should 44 00:02:19,320 --> 00:02:22,920 Speaker 3: be more concerned about concentration since that's one, and more 45 00:02:22,960 --> 00:02:25,680 Speaker 3: interested in some of the others that keep lagging behind. 46 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:30,320 Speaker 1: I think because eventually you end up with this kind 47 00:02:30,360 --> 00:02:32,160 Speaker 1: of think of it almost like a you know, it's 48 00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:34,680 Speaker 1: a teflon market, right. Nothing seems to stick to it. 49 00:02:34,720 --> 00:02:37,280 Speaker 1: Every risk that we roll at it, right, whether it's 50 00:02:37,560 --> 00:02:40,840 Speaker 1: you know, the France risks this morning and the tails 51 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:44,000 Speaker 1: or anything like that, just seems to bounce off of it. 52 00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:48,040 Speaker 1: And the same theme plays through AI wins, tech wins. Right, 53 00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:51,720 Speaker 1: it's seven months into that. You you know, if you 54 00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:54,360 Speaker 1: run a marathon or a race and you sprint for 55 00:02:54,400 --> 00:02:57,480 Speaker 1: seven months, which we have sprinted, Let's be honest about it, 56 00:02:57,680 --> 00:02:59,639 Speaker 1: you're going to be tired. And I think the market 57 00:02:59,680 --> 00:03:01,600 Speaker 1: is tied here. It's you know, when you look at 58 00:03:01,600 --> 00:03:05,919 Speaker 1: those top concentrated names to the point, they're doing extraordinarily well, right, 59 00:03:06,000 --> 00:03:08,680 Speaker 1: And I'll take it, but I get under the surface, right, 60 00:03:08,720 --> 00:03:11,680 Speaker 1: whether your point equal weighted small cap, I look at 61 00:03:11,680 --> 00:03:13,880 Speaker 1: some of the other sectors, they're just not participating at 62 00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:14,480 Speaker 1: the same level. 63 00:03:14,560 --> 00:03:16,600 Speaker 3: So I guess the question is do you sell your 64 00:03:16,600 --> 00:03:19,960 Speaker 3: big tech exposure or do you buy everything else. It's 65 00:03:20,000 --> 00:03:22,720 Speaker 3: a big distinction. Are you bullish on the other sectors 66 00:03:23,240 --> 00:03:25,640 Speaker 3: or are you just simply getting a little bit more 67 00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:27,600 Speaker 3: skeptical of how much further tech can run. 68 00:03:28,919 --> 00:03:31,639 Speaker 1: So yes to the former, right, which is so I 69 00:03:31,680 --> 00:03:33,440 Speaker 1: think when you get underneath. We just released our mid 70 00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:34,520 Speaker 1: year outlook this week. 71 00:03:34,720 --> 00:03:34,880 Speaker 2: Right. 72 00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:36,720 Speaker 1: One of the things we did in the midia outlook 73 00:03:36,800 --> 00:03:40,200 Speaker 1: was took energy to the most favorable we could possibly 74 00:03:40,240 --> 00:03:42,840 Speaker 1: take it too, right in the portfolios. Basically, we ran 75 00:03:42,880 --> 00:03:46,960 Speaker 1: it up to the highest big pullback obviously in oil prices. 76 00:03:47,040 --> 00:03:49,720 Speaker 1: We've taken all the political risk premium out of oil prices, 77 00:03:49,760 --> 00:03:51,920 Speaker 1: which kind of shocks me. Given the global landscape and 78 00:03:51,960 --> 00:03:54,560 Speaker 1: where we are. I'm getting a lot of big whether 79 00:03:54,600 --> 00:03:56,960 Speaker 1: it's you know, the integrated energy names or even some 80 00:03:57,000 --> 00:04:00,000 Speaker 1: of the expiration companies. At twelve thirteen fourteen times pace 81 00:04:00,120 --> 00:04:02,240 Speaker 1: ease with a three and a half percent dividend, I 82 00:04:02,320 --> 00:04:05,080 Speaker 1: will take that all day long. We also like materials. 83 00:04:05,200 --> 00:04:08,560 Speaker 1: We think healthcare is a good value play here, and 84 00:04:08,960 --> 00:04:12,720 Speaker 1: we would fade places like you know, the consumer obviously 85 00:04:12,800 --> 00:04:15,880 Speaker 1: reads and even financials look a little bit over. 86 00:04:15,760 --> 00:04:18,280 Speaker 3: Brought to us here, wait, consumers reads and financials. This 87 00:04:18,320 --> 00:04:20,599 Speaker 3: is very interesting at a time where the fed estensiply 88 00:04:20,680 --> 00:04:22,920 Speaker 3: is going to be cutting rates pretty soon. And at 89 00:04:22,920 --> 00:04:25,320 Speaker 3: one point this was supposed to fuel the next consumer 90 00:04:25,360 --> 00:04:27,960 Speaker 3: spending wave in the sense of consumer strength and ability 91 00:04:28,000 --> 00:04:30,719 Speaker 3: to borrow in a new way. Why is it not 92 00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:32,400 Speaker 3: playing out that way? 93 00:04:32,560 --> 00:04:34,840 Speaker 1: Because I'm not sure the consumer is as strong as 94 00:04:34,920 --> 00:04:36,920 Speaker 1: people want to give it credit for, right, I mean, 95 00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:40,159 Speaker 1: if you everybody does the including us, you know, the 96 00:04:40,200 --> 00:04:42,839 Speaker 1: top five quintiles of income, right, we know that the 97 00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:45,760 Speaker 1: bifurcation of the high end is doing well, the low 98 00:04:45,839 --> 00:04:48,880 Speaker 1: end is not. But what people are missing is kind 99 00:04:48,880 --> 00:04:52,159 Speaker 1: of the creep up into the middle income levels of 100 00:04:52,160 --> 00:04:54,840 Speaker 1: where people are trading down for value. They're not spending 101 00:04:54,839 --> 00:04:57,520 Speaker 1: as robustly as they want to. You see. You know, 102 00:04:57,560 --> 00:05:00,000 Speaker 1: consumer confidence numbers are still on a downtrend. Small bit 103 00:05:00,000 --> 00:05:03,720 Speaker 1: business numbers are still you know, pretty ugly right when 104 00:05:03,760 --> 00:05:06,120 Speaker 1: you get below the surface. So there's just not a 105 00:05:06,120 --> 00:05:08,800 Speaker 1: lot of reason to believe, you know, to us, it 106 00:05:08,800 --> 00:05:11,440 Speaker 1: looks like the consumers kind of running that last mile 107 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:15,280 Speaker 1: here right, they've they've been able to stay durable and 108 00:05:15,279 --> 00:05:17,479 Speaker 1: spend I'm just not sure how much gas is left 109 00:05:17,480 --> 00:05:17,960 Speaker 1: in the tank. 110 00:05:18,279 --> 00:05:20,120 Speaker 2: So this time last week, when we read out the 111 00:05:20,120 --> 00:05:22,799 Speaker 2: payrolls number two hundred and seventy two thousand, you didn't 112 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:24,599 Speaker 2: hear two hundred and seventy two thousand. 113 00:05:24,680 --> 00:05:30,039 Speaker 1: You had something else. So I think payrolls and the 114 00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:33,680 Speaker 1: labor market in general are getting skewed heavily by some 115 00:05:33,760 --> 00:05:37,039 Speaker 1: of the lag effects of what's happening with immigration in 116 00:05:37,040 --> 00:05:39,400 Speaker 1: this country and everything else. So we ran the numbers again. 117 00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:44,520 Speaker 1: If you take just immigration from pre COVID levels, we're 118 00:05:44,520 --> 00:05:47,839 Speaker 1: three point three million people higher today in the labor 119 00:05:47,880 --> 00:05:51,920 Speaker 1: force than we were coming into twenty twenty, if you will. 120 00:05:52,160 --> 00:05:55,080 Speaker 1: That's having real impacts on the labor force, right, And 121 00:05:54,760 --> 00:05:58,120 Speaker 1: those numbers, so the labor market is still strong. We'll 122 00:05:58,120 --> 00:06:00,960 Speaker 1: take a four percent unemployment rate all day long, but 123 00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:03,719 Speaker 1: I'm not sure that it's as strong as maybe the 124 00:06:03,800 --> 00:06:06,520 Speaker 1: numbers might be. Sending a little false outquos there to us. 125 00:06:06,640 --> 00:06:09,120 Speaker 2: This is what Chairman Pound basically said in the news conference. 126 00:06:09,680 --> 00:06:12,560 Speaker 2: One of my sort of biggest takeaways from the polls 127 00:06:12,680 --> 00:06:14,760 Speaker 2: over the last year is this poll right here from 128 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:17,440 Speaker 2: Guardian Harris Pole that came out in the last month 129 00:06:17,560 --> 00:06:20,080 Speaker 2: or so, and Aretus follows. I'll give you some headlines 130 00:06:20,120 --> 00:06:24,159 Speaker 2: a stonic fifty five percent believe the economy shrinking, fifty 131 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:27,440 Speaker 2: six percent think the US is experiencing a recession. Forty 132 00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:31,680 Speaker 2: nine percent. Forty nine percent believe that unemployment is at 133 00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:36,200 Speaker 2: a fifty year high. Wow, forty nine percent. That's the 134 00:06:36,200 --> 00:06:38,080 Speaker 2: poll that came from Guardian Harris in the last month 135 00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:38,320 Speaker 2: or so. 136 00:06:38,440 --> 00:06:40,920 Speaker 3: It's the reason why consumer sentiment has been so low. 137 00:06:41,160 --> 00:06:44,360 Speaker 3: People don't feel good? Is that wrong? Can you say 138 00:06:44,360 --> 00:06:46,640 Speaker 3: that people's feelings are wrong or are they feeling something? 139 00:06:46,760 --> 00:06:49,320 Speaker 3: The numbers aren't showing in quite the same level and 140 00:06:49,360 --> 00:06:52,400 Speaker 3: people explained by the K shaped recovery. Stay tuned for 141 00:06:52,400 --> 00:06:55,240 Speaker 3: the University of Michigan Sentiments survey. We out in approximately 142 00:06:55,560 --> 00:06:57,160 Speaker 3: one hour and forty nine minutes. 143 00:06:57,160 --> 00:06:59,320 Speaker 2: Well, maybe we're just not measuring things properly. Correct in 144 00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:02,240 Speaker 2: a households versus establishment survey, allows sway was the big 145 00:07:02,279 --> 00:07:02,920 Speaker 2: stand doown down? 146 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:05,640 Speaker 1: I think that's I think you're spot on right. I mean, 147 00:07:05,920 --> 00:07:08,360 Speaker 1: I think you've got to really you can't just take 148 00:07:08,400 --> 00:07:10,720 Speaker 1: those headline numbers as they stand, right, You've got to 149 00:07:10,800 --> 00:07:13,240 Speaker 1: dig in under the surface and kind of take the 150 00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:16,080 Speaker 1: second derivative, third derivative and understand what those numbers are 151 00:07:16,080 --> 00:07:20,080 Speaker 1: telling you. I am a big firm believer that liquidity 152 00:07:20,160 --> 00:07:23,720 Speaker 1: is masking so many things around the economic element. I mean, 153 00:07:23,720 --> 00:07:26,240 Speaker 1: if we just went back and around the numbers from 154 00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:28,800 Speaker 1: just the twenty twenties, where now twenty twenty four, obviously, 155 00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:32,880 Speaker 1: financial markets are up about forty six trillion dollars in 156 00:07:33,280 --> 00:07:37,400 Speaker 1: am right, government debt is up twelve trillion dollars. Right. 157 00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:41,360 Speaker 1: Think of just the liquidity that that pushes into the engine, right, 158 00:07:41,520 --> 00:07:45,360 Speaker 1: and the ability for consumers to stay longer, right, for 159 00:07:45,440 --> 00:07:48,600 Speaker 1: businesses to feel better. Right. All of that has had 160 00:07:48,640 --> 00:07:52,120 Speaker 1: this kind of long lasting use. It called the marathon effect. 161 00:07:52,200 --> 00:07:52,280 Speaker 4: Right. 162 00:07:52,320 --> 00:07:55,720 Speaker 1: We run hard seven months. But Wall Street isn't Main Street, right, 163 00:07:55,760 --> 00:07:58,960 Speaker 1: and so the S and P isn't what people are feeling. 164 00:07:59,240 --> 00:08:01,080 Speaker 1: If you walk up and down Main Street to the 165 00:08:01,080 --> 00:08:02,400 Speaker 1: point of the survey, right. 166 00:08:02,680 --> 00:08:04,560 Speaker 2: Forty percent belief the S and P is down for 167 00:08:04,560 --> 00:08:04,880 Speaker 2: the year. 168 00:08:05,640 --> 00:08:07,120 Speaker 1: This is quite a pole, isn't it. 169 00:08:08,080 --> 00:08:09,800 Speaker 3: A lot of a lot of the companies are down. 170 00:08:10,000 --> 00:08:13,080 Speaker 3: So it also speaks to the non AI and members. 171 00:08:13,360 --> 00:08:15,120 Speaker 2: Darren, this was great it's going to see us, sir, 172 00:08:15,280 --> 00:08:17,720 Speaker 2: thanks for sharing your thoughts. Darren Pronk there of wel Faco, 173 00:08:27,640 --> 00:08:30,320 Speaker 2: Poosha Shreenramp and the team over at Barclays maintaining their 174 00:08:30,320 --> 00:08:33,160 Speaker 2: call for one cut this year, writing quote, we continue 175 00:08:33,160 --> 00:08:35,800 Speaker 2: to think the cut to take place at the earliest 176 00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:39,800 Speaker 2: in September. Our baseline is predicated on inflation gradually moderating 177 00:08:39,800 --> 00:08:42,520 Speaker 2: in the coming months on a sequential basis and the 178 00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:46,320 Speaker 2: economy gradually slowing. Foosua joins us now for more POSA. 179 00:08:46,400 --> 00:08:47,720 Speaker 2: Great to have you with us on a program. I 180 00:08:47,760 --> 00:08:49,719 Speaker 2: just want to summarize the data we've had so far 181 00:08:49,800 --> 00:08:54,440 Speaker 2: this week. CPI cooler than expected, PPI downside surprise, then 182 00:08:54,520 --> 00:08:58,199 Speaker 2: jobless claims happened wrong kind of upside surprise. What did 183 00:08:58,200 --> 00:09:00,920 Speaker 2: you make of the claims print yesterday? And how concerned 184 00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:01,520 Speaker 2: should we all be? 185 00:09:03,240 --> 00:09:06,680 Speaker 5: So I thank the good morning. I think, you know, 186 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:10,920 Speaker 5: we really did take too much signal from the claims data, 187 00:09:11,640 --> 00:09:13,839 Speaker 5: you know the fact that it did tick up for 188 00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:18,640 Speaker 5: the week. I think if that trend continues, it would 189 00:09:18,640 --> 00:09:22,120 Speaker 5: be in line with you know, some continued moderation in 190 00:09:22,520 --> 00:09:26,760 Speaker 5: labor market conditions, which you know really is a welcome 191 00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:29,959 Speaker 5: sign I think we should all remember labor market conditions 192 00:09:29,960 --> 00:09:33,160 Speaker 5: are very strong, whether you look at you know, the 193 00:09:33,200 --> 00:09:36,000 Speaker 5: three month moving average of payroll gains or even the 194 00:09:36,080 --> 00:09:41,320 Speaker 5: latest payroll report. I think some moderation is welcomed, particularly 195 00:09:41,360 --> 00:09:42,679 Speaker 5: from an inflation standpoint. 196 00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:46,240 Speaker 3: Jeff You earlier this morning from PNY said the market 197 00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:48,680 Speaker 3: is more dubbish than the Fed. It certainly seems that 198 00:09:48,679 --> 00:09:50,959 Speaker 3: way based on the bond market rally that John was 199 00:09:51,040 --> 00:09:53,720 Speaker 3: just talking about. You could see that into some of 200 00:09:53,760 --> 00:09:56,480 Speaker 3: the implied cuts. Do you think the market is wrong 201 00:09:56,520 --> 00:09:58,360 Speaker 3: to be so or do you see that the Fed 202 00:09:58,400 --> 00:10:00,800 Speaker 3: basically is trying to have a hackish health just so 203 00:10:00,880 --> 00:10:03,080 Speaker 3: they don't get it wrong to reversal of what happened 204 00:10:03,120 --> 00:10:04,760 Speaker 3: at the end of last year when they indicated that 205 00:10:04,800 --> 00:10:06,160 Speaker 3: they would be cutting rates. 206 00:10:07,200 --> 00:10:11,720 Speaker 5: I think, look, I think the markets don't necessarily price 207 00:10:11,920 --> 00:10:14,360 Speaker 5: just the baseline. They've got to price, you know, risks 208 00:10:14,400 --> 00:10:17,920 Speaker 5: around that, so you know the pricing is what it is. 209 00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:21,120 Speaker 5: And as faw it, you know what the Fed signaled 210 00:10:21,160 --> 00:10:24,599 Speaker 5: I think with a very balanced sort of a message. 211 00:10:25,320 --> 00:10:28,400 Speaker 5: You're right, you know they have been burnt once the 212 00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:30,959 Speaker 5: end of last year when there was a dubblesh stilt 213 00:10:31,240 --> 00:10:33,840 Speaker 5: in December after a run of you know, weak inflation 214 00:10:33,920 --> 00:10:36,199 Speaker 5: prints and then look what happened in the first quarter. 215 00:10:35,960 --> 00:10:36,440 Speaker 1: Of this year. 216 00:10:36,960 --> 00:10:39,439 Speaker 5: So I think just you know, they don't want to 217 00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:42,360 Speaker 5: make too much of one data point, and the totality 218 00:10:42,400 --> 00:10:44,640 Speaker 5: of the data that they keep talking about, whether it's 219 00:10:44,679 --> 00:10:49,000 Speaker 5: activity or labor markets, those haven't really shown a material easing. 220 00:10:49,640 --> 00:10:53,640 Speaker 5: And so you know, what they signaled in their SEP 221 00:10:54,440 --> 00:10:58,480 Speaker 5: on Wednesday was very much a tone of patients of caution, 222 00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:02,360 Speaker 5: of course, being cautious, and they want to gain confidence 223 00:11:02,400 --> 00:11:04,040 Speaker 5: that things are moving in the right direction. 224 00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:05,840 Speaker 3: What do you make then, of people who say, well, 225 00:11:05,840 --> 00:11:08,200 Speaker 3: if you put it all together, core PCE, which is 226 00:11:08,200 --> 00:11:11,160 Speaker 3: one of the key inflation metrics to the Federalserve looks at, 227 00:11:11,520 --> 00:11:13,440 Speaker 3: is something that is very predictable. If you have the 228 00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:16,000 Speaker 3: inputs of PPI and CPI and some of the other 229 00:11:16,080 --> 00:11:19,120 Speaker 3: data that's already come out. People are now mapping out 230 00:11:19,280 --> 00:11:22,000 Speaker 3: something akin to a zero point one percent increase in 231 00:11:22,400 --> 00:11:25,640 Speaker 3: core PCE, which would be very much in line with 232 00:11:25,720 --> 00:11:28,320 Speaker 3: the Fed's goals bringing a year over year inflation to 233 00:11:28,360 --> 00:11:29,800 Speaker 3: something like two point six percent. 234 00:11:30,160 --> 00:11:31,040 Speaker 2: How much do. 235 00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:33,360 Speaker 3: You see that as actually giving a green light to 236 00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:36,080 Speaker 3: the FED as early as September, even though that's not 237 00:11:36,120 --> 00:11:36,839 Speaker 3: your base case. 238 00:11:38,720 --> 00:11:42,880 Speaker 5: So look, I think we we agree with that translation. 239 00:11:43,080 --> 00:11:45,520 Speaker 5: Our own forecast for core PC in ME is a 240 00:11:45,600 --> 00:11:49,200 Speaker 5: point one three percent, so to your point, a very benign, 241 00:11:50,000 --> 00:11:54,600 Speaker 5: very soft looking core PC inflation print that said, you know, 242 00:11:55,040 --> 00:11:57,319 Speaker 5: we like to say that the FED is not data 243 00:11:57,440 --> 00:12:02,320 Speaker 5: point dependent, and it came across quite clearly in check 244 00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:05,000 Speaker 5: ours press conference as well, that they didn't want to 245 00:12:05,040 --> 00:12:08,280 Speaker 5: meet too much of one data point. He did say that, 246 00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:13,120 Speaker 5: you know, he welcomed the ME inflation outcome and that's 247 00:12:13,160 --> 00:12:16,040 Speaker 5: the step in the right direction. So, you know, like 248 00:12:16,640 --> 00:12:21,000 Speaker 5: we've written, should inflation outcomes continue to you know, move 249 00:12:21,040 --> 00:12:23,920 Speaker 5: in the right direction, i e. Come and soft. I 250 00:12:23,920 --> 00:12:27,000 Speaker 5: think that will open the door to a rate cut. 251 00:12:27,040 --> 00:12:30,720 Speaker 5: But is the may PCEE alone enough clearly not. 252 00:12:31,280 --> 00:12:33,079 Speaker 2: Pose sure some personal bass here, I have to say, 253 00:12:33,120 --> 00:12:35,280 Speaker 2: I wonder how many people agree with me. I'm far 254 00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:37,840 Speaker 2: more interested in how we end the year on unemployment 255 00:12:38,160 --> 00:12:41,079 Speaker 2: than i am on inflation. I sense from a lot 256 00:12:41,080 --> 00:12:42,839 Speaker 2: of people that come on this program they have far 257 00:12:42,960 --> 00:12:45,320 Speaker 2: less confidence about where this labor market will be by 258 00:12:45,360 --> 00:12:47,880 Speaker 2: year end than they do want how inflation's going to attrack. 259 00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:50,000 Speaker 2: And the reason I asked this question is because the 260 00:12:50,000 --> 00:12:52,120 Speaker 2: federal reservers come out and said, basically, we will end 261 00:12:52,120 --> 00:12:55,200 Speaker 2: the year with unemployment where it is right now, and 262 00:12:55,280 --> 00:12:57,200 Speaker 2: I'm trying to work out how much confidence you have 263 00:12:57,240 --> 00:13:00,280 Speaker 2: the unemployment does actually stabilize at these levels the next 264 00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:01,439 Speaker 2: twelve months plus. 265 00:13:03,600 --> 00:13:07,280 Speaker 5: You know, it's that that's a hard one to forecast. 266 00:13:07,840 --> 00:13:09,840 Speaker 5: You know, we work with the indicators that we have, 267 00:13:10,080 --> 00:13:13,440 Speaker 5: and clearly we haven't seen much by the way of 268 00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:16,200 Speaker 5: move up in the unemployment rate. Of course, you know, 269 00:13:16,240 --> 00:13:18,920 Speaker 5: we were at three four at some point in time. 270 00:13:19,120 --> 00:13:21,439 Speaker 5: You know, we've definitely ticked higher, but a four to 271 00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:25,480 Speaker 5: four point one percent is clearly not something that is 272 00:13:26,240 --> 00:13:29,360 Speaker 5: you know, weak by any standards, and I think this 273 00:13:29,480 --> 00:13:33,080 Speaker 5: is a labor market that is still running strong. You know, 274 00:13:33,559 --> 00:13:35,800 Speaker 5: we we look at the data as SOS we as 275 00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:38,960 Speaker 5: we can. Of course, you know, we're cognizant. A lot 276 00:13:39,040 --> 00:13:43,240 Speaker 5: of the games are concentrated in the private sector, particularly services, 277 00:13:43,360 --> 00:13:49,400 Speaker 5: particularly you know, education and healthcare, some from leision, hospitality. 278 00:13:49,520 --> 00:13:52,280 Speaker 5: So we've we've heard those arguments that the games are 279 00:13:52,320 --> 00:13:56,360 Speaker 5: all pretty narrow, but the fact that they continue, you know, 280 00:13:56,559 --> 00:14:01,040 Speaker 5: month on month is one thing. And second is you know, 281 00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:04,800 Speaker 5: we're looking at the Joel Stata job opening is sure, 282 00:14:04,920 --> 00:14:07,360 Speaker 5: you know, come down a bit, but still quite elevated. 283 00:14:08,520 --> 00:14:11,440 Speaker 5: And you know, if anything, it looks like you know, 284 00:14:11,480 --> 00:14:14,679 Speaker 5: that momentum is still there. So you know, we've we 285 00:14:14,840 --> 00:14:18,120 Speaker 5: we're looking for any signs of cracks. We haven't seen 286 00:14:18,280 --> 00:14:22,000 Speaker 5: so much. So you know, we're we're sort of with 287 00:14:22,080 --> 00:14:24,800 Speaker 5: the ft that we don't see a big spike in 288 00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:26,560 Speaker 5: the unemployment rate by the end of the earl. 289 00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:37,920 Speaker 2: Push you appreciate it. Push your stream ramp of Barclays. 290 00:14:41,400 --> 00:14:44,760 Speaker 2: Tesla shareholder's foken to approval on must fifty six billion 291 00:14:44,800 --> 00:14:47,800 Speaker 2: dollar pip package and green light. The company has moved 292 00:14:47,800 --> 00:14:50,880 Speaker 2: to Texas to stock having a pretty decent twenty four hours, 293 00:14:50,920 --> 00:14:53,360 Speaker 2: Tasha Kni of our constructive on the name right in 294 00:14:53,400 --> 00:14:57,040 Speaker 2: this our confidence in test usibility to launch a robotaxi 295 00:14:57,120 --> 00:15:01,120 Speaker 2: network within the next five years has increased considerably. A 296 00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:02,680 Speaker 2: place to say that we can catch up the Tesla. 297 00:15:02,680 --> 00:15:04,880 Speaker 2: But right now, Tasha, great to catch up with you. 298 00:15:04,960 --> 00:15:06,800 Speaker 2: I just want to start with the shareholder votes of 299 00:15:06,840 --> 00:15:08,560 Speaker 2: the last day or so. Of course they've been going 300 00:15:08,600 --> 00:15:10,160 Speaker 2: on for a number of days. Do you think we 301 00:15:10,200 --> 00:15:12,400 Speaker 2: can leave this issue in the past now and move on. 302 00:15:14,720 --> 00:15:17,640 Speaker 4: Well, you know, I'm not a legal expert, so of course, 303 00:15:17,680 --> 00:15:19,920 Speaker 4: you know, we know what investors want, and now it 304 00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:22,600 Speaker 4: could be up to the courts again. But what I'll 305 00:15:22,640 --> 00:15:24,680 Speaker 4: say is that I think it's positive that you know, 306 00:15:24,680 --> 00:15:29,000 Speaker 4: we saw investors considering the proxy and putting their own 307 00:15:29,080 --> 00:15:32,120 Speaker 4: votes in voting for themselves. You know, when we look 308 00:15:32,160 --> 00:15:34,520 Speaker 4: at Tesla, where we certainly want Elon Musk to be 309 00:15:34,560 --> 00:15:38,480 Speaker 4: at the helm, especially when you can consider the transition 310 00:15:38,720 --> 00:15:42,080 Speaker 4: to fully autonomous driving, which is what we think will 311 00:15:42,160 --> 00:15:44,920 Speaker 4: drive the majority of the value of the company over 312 00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:45,760 Speaker 4: the next five years. 313 00:15:45,960 --> 00:15:47,920 Speaker 2: Can you walk us through why and why you think 314 00:15:47,920 --> 00:15:50,080 Speaker 2: that's the real deal and we'll see it that quickly 315 00:15:50,360 --> 00:15:51,440 Speaker 2: over the next five years. 316 00:15:53,480 --> 00:15:58,360 Speaker 4: Yes. Well, so we already have robotaxis right Waimo, which 317 00:15:58,400 --> 00:16:02,840 Speaker 4: is Alphabet's autonomous driving project, is driving around Phoenix. They're 318 00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:05,520 Speaker 4: you know, starting an effort in La. They're in San Francisco, 319 00:16:06,520 --> 00:16:09,720 Speaker 4: but we don't have them at scale yet. Tesla could 320 00:16:09,760 --> 00:16:12,360 Speaker 4: be one of the first companies to offer a service 321 00:16:12,440 --> 00:16:15,480 Speaker 4: like this at scale, and it's because they have a 322 00:16:15,520 --> 00:16:19,520 Speaker 4: massive data advantage. They're collecting information from customer cars that 323 00:16:19,600 --> 00:16:22,120 Speaker 4: helps them train their models. You know, and they have 324 00:16:22,160 --> 00:16:25,520 Speaker 4: more cars on the road than any other autonomous effort 325 00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:28,680 Speaker 4: that I know of in the US, And you know, 326 00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:33,000 Speaker 4: this is their plan. They're layering on software updates incrementally. 327 00:16:33,920 --> 00:16:36,840 Speaker 4: Right now, it's the full self driving software that's available 328 00:16:36,880 --> 00:16:39,680 Speaker 4: to customers. Eventually customers will be able to take their 329 00:16:39,680 --> 00:16:42,600 Speaker 4: hands off the wheel. And then last night, you know, 330 00:16:42,640 --> 00:16:46,360 Speaker 4: we heard Elon Musk talk about extensively the robotaxi effort, 331 00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:48,760 Speaker 4: where you, as a customer, could sign your car up 332 00:16:48,800 --> 00:16:50,920 Speaker 4: when you're not using it, you know. But more likely, 333 00:16:50,960 --> 00:16:53,880 Speaker 4: I think it'll be a fleet model, so you'll have 334 00:16:54,240 --> 00:16:57,480 Speaker 4: perhaps another company that owns and maintains the fleet. Tesla 335 00:16:57,560 --> 00:17:02,760 Speaker 4: collicks a take rate off of the mile revenue, and 336 00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:05,879 Speaker 4: you know, I think this could have very attractive margins, 337 00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:09,159 Speaker 4: higher margins than the current business model today, which is 338 00:17:09,200 --> 00:17:13,640 Speaker 4: mainly selling vehicles, right, and this will be a recurring revenue. 339 00:17:14,280 --> 00:17:17,280 Speaker 4: So so again we think very attractive from an economic 340 00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:20,720 Speaker 4: perspective to Tesla. But more importantly, it'll change all of 341 00:17:20,760 --> 00:17:23,000 Speaker 4: our lives. You know, I think this is one of 342 00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:26,959 Speaker 4: the greatest AI projects in our time, and we are 343 00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:28,320 Speaker 4: so lucky that we get to witness it. 344 00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:31,800 Speaker 3: Tasha, there are some real questions about Elon Musk's leadership 345 00:17:32,119 --> 00:17:36,200 Speaker 3: and whether he is focused enough on Tesla and diverting 346 00:17:36,240 --> 00:17:39,240 Speaker 3: some of the chips that have honestly reportedly have gone 347 00:17:39,280 --> 00:17:41,439 Speaker 3: to some of his other companies to really get some 348 00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:45,520 Speaker 3: of the ROBOTAXI efforts fully underway. Why do you think 349 00:17:45,600 --> 00:17:46,640 Speaker 3: that's not a concern. 350 00:17:48,760 --> 00:17:50,560 Speaker 4: You know, I actually think it's a positive that Elon 351 00:17:50,680 --> 00:17:54,080 Speaker 4: Musk runs a number of companies. One we've heard and 352 00:17:54,119 --> 00:17:56,920 Speaker 4: we've heard them talk about this. It's great for talent acquisition. 353 00:17:57,280 --> 00:18:00,399 Speaker 4: We've seen employees move in between his companies. You know, 354 00:18:00,440 --> 00:18:03,560 Speaker 4: if you're the top a AI engineer in the world, 355 00:18:03,760 --> 00:18:06,119 Speaker 4: you're not going to get bored working for Elon Musk. 356 00:18:07,040 --> 00:18:07,280 Speaker 4: You know. 357 00:18:07,359 --> 00:18:08,240 Speaker 1: The chip story. 358 00:18:08,400 --> 00:18:10,760 Speaker 4: What I point out is, you know, automakers actually often 359 00:18:10,760 --> 00:18:13,119 Speaker 4: negotiate on behalf of their suppliers, and they do so 360 00:18:13,680 --> 00:18:17,080 Speaker 4: because of economies of scale, they have better negotiating leverage. 361 00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:19,560 Speaker 4: So I think having you know, all of these companies 362 00:18:19,600 --> 00:18:22,680 Speaker 4: that you know, many of which might use in video products, 363 00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:26,320 Speaker 4: is again actually a positive here. And we've also seen 364 00:18:26,880 --> 00:18:32,320 Speaker 4: manufacturing innovations come from SpaceX that bleed into Tesla, So 365 00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:33,960 Speaker 4: you know, and I think you have to look at 366 00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:36,440 Speaker 4: the Tesla results here, right, I mean when you're talking 367 00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:38,720 Speaker 4: about the pay package that the stock has risen over 368 00:18:38,760 --> 00:18:41,960 Speaker 4: one thousand percent over that time period, So he's really 369 00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:45,320 Speaker 4: delivered shareholder value. And I'm again so excited for the 370 00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:48,959 Speaker 4: future because we're really on the cusp of autonomous driving today. 371 00:18:49,359 --> 00:18:52,320 Speaker 3: Tasha, is there absolutely anything that could happen that is 372 00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:56,560 Speaker 3: a potential event in the next year that could shake 373 00:18:56,600 --> 00:19:00,119 Speaker 3: your confidence right now in Tesla? 374 00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:02,000 Speaker 4: Well, you know, really, what I'm looking for is for 375 00:19:02,040 --> 00:19:06,120 Speaker 4: Tesla to cross that threshold into fully autonomous driving. We've 376 00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:10,040 Speaker 4: seen them tease this robotaxi service or a ride hill service, 377 00:19:10,760 --> 00:19:12,800 Speaker 4: both on the past Earning's call and at the event 378 00:19:12,880 --> 00:19:15,240 Speaker 4: last night, so I'm looking for that launch. So we 379 00:19:15,280 --> 00:19:18,400 Speaker 4: have an event coming up in August from Tesla that's 380 00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:21,880 Speaker 4: going to look at the purpose built robotaxi, the next 381 00:19:21,920 --> 00:19:24,399 Speaker 4: generation car. I don't think they need that car to 382 00:19:24,480 --> 00:19:27,680 Speaker 4: necessarily launch the service because the current fleet is capable 383 00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:30,119 Speaker 4: of it. But I am looking for details at that 384 00:19:30,200 --> 00:19:32,080 Speaker 4: event about what this business. 385 00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:32,479 Speaker 3: Model will look like. 386 00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:34,639 Speaker 4: We heard some of that last night, so we know 387 00:19:34,680 --> 00:19:36,880 Speaker 4: that they're thinking through the back end logistics of how 388 00:19:36,920 --> 00:19:39,199 Speaker 4: this will work. So I think that you know, they 389 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:42,120 Speaker 4: could cross this threshold within the next year or two, 390 00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:45,120 Speaker 4: and that is the catalyst that you know, I'm most 391 00:19:45,160 --> 00:19:45,800 Speaker 4: looking forward to. 392 00:19:45,840 --> 00:19:48,399 Speaker 2: It's Tesla twenty six hundred dollars price target, which is 393 00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:51,280 Speaker 2: pretty punchy, as you know, and certainly gets attention, that's 394 00:19:51,280 --> 00:19:53,359 Speaker 2: for sure. Can you tell me the biggest risk factor 395 00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:56,280 Speaker 2: associated with your cal what would change your mind? 396 00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:02,840 Speaker 4: Well, you know, certainly, I think that solving autonomous driving 397 00:20:02,920 --> 00:20:06,760 Speaker 4: is a very difficult problem and so and you know 398 00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:09,720 Speaker 4: it's hard to time that exactly. But I again, as 399 00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:12,560 Speaker 4: you mentioned, you know in our blog which is on 400 00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:14,600 Speaker 4: the Ark and Best website, we think that this could 401 00:20:14,640 --> 00:20:17,640 Speaker 4: happen in the next five years, and our confidence has 402 00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:21,520 Speaker 4: increased with all the advances in AI and Tesla's you know, 403 00:20:21,560 --> 00:20:24,120 Speaker 4: improvements that they rolled out to customers that actually own 404 00:20:24,200 --> 00:20:25,160 Speaker 4: the vehicles. 405 00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:25,400 Speaker 1: In the software. 406 00:20:26,160 --> 00:20:28,480 Speaker 4: So you know that that is a risk. Again, we're 407 00:20:28,760 --> 00:20:30,840 Speaker 4: confident that they can do it, but it is a 408 00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:33,800 Speaker 4: difficult problem to solve. I think, Uh, you know what 409 00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:36,159 Speaker 4: gives us confidence from last night is, you know, if 410 00:20:36,200 --> 00:20:39,840 Speaker 4: this pay package gets totally approved, you know, we know 411 00:20:39,880 --> 00:20:41,280 Speaker 4: that Elon Musk is going to be at the helm 412 00:20:41,280 --> 00:20:43,560 Speaker 4: with this company for at least five more years. He 413 00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:46,239 Speaker 4: has limits and when he can exercise his options. So 414 00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:48,480 Speaker 4: I think that that is another key piece that we 415 00:20:48,520 --> 00:20:51,040 Speaker 4: want Elon Musk to stay. We want them to be incentivized. 416 00:20:51,640 --> 00:20:53,720 Speaker 4: So I think that's ultimately a good thing. 417 00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:56,800 Speaker 2: I do you know controls the fight of this call? 418 00:20:56,960 --> 00:20:58,760 Speaker 2: Do you think it is tested on their ability to 419 00:20:58,880 --> 00:21:01,719 Speaker 2: execute or do you think it is the regulator local 420 00:21:01,760 --> 00:21:05,320 Speaker 2: authorities who will ultimately have the decision to make to 421 00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:06,879 Speaker 2: give this the green light or not? 422 00:21:08,480 --> 00:21:11,040 Speaker 4: Great question, you know, it's just going to touch on that. 423 00:21:11,119 --> 00:21:15,160 Speaker 4: So often people are concerned about regulation. I actually think that, 424 00:21:15,280 --> 00:21:18,280 Speaker 4: you know, again, the more difficult problem here is actually 425 00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:21,560 Speaker 4: making the technology work and scaling this type of service. 426 00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:25,479 Speaker 4: The US has actually been surprisingly lenient with autonomous driving 427 00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:27,880 Speaker 4: because it's been up to the States and we've seen 428 00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:30,280 Speaker 4: you know, Tesla right now they have over a billion 429 00:21:30,320 --> 00:21:34,480 Speaker 4: miles cumulatively in the full self driving software suite driven. 430 00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:37,880 Speaker 4: So I think that they'll be able to statistically prove 431 00:21:37,960 --> 00:21:41,119 Speaker 4: to regulators since this is safer than humans. And actually 432 00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:43,280 Speaker 4: we've done some research on this, so if you look 433 00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:45,720 Speaker 4: at their full self driving software suite, the last time 434 00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:47,840 Speaker 4: they give us a statistic which is a little over 435 00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:50,560 Speaker 4: a year ago. Now it looked like it was five 436 00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:54,359 Speaker 4: times safer than human driven tesla's and even safer than 437 00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:56,720 Speaker 4: the average car on the road. So we're already seeing 438 00:21:56,720 --> 00:21:59,160 Speaker 4: those proof points, and I think, you know, it could 439 00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:01,480 Speaker 4: get even better. In fact, Elon Musk has hinted that 440 00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:03,520 Speaker 4: they have line of sight to maybe a four x 441 00:22:03,600 --> 00:22:06,480 Speaker 4: movement of that, and that's what's going to matter to 442 00:22:06,560 --> 00:22:09,399 Speaker 4: regulators here. So we're already seeing those safety points. 443 00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:11,800 Speaker 2: Tuchakny, great to catch up with you. Thank you to 444 00:22:12,040 --> 00:22:16,840 Speaker 2: Kenny There of ARC Investment. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, 445 00:22:16,960 --> 00:22:21,000 Speaker 2: bringing you the best in markets, economics, angiopolitics. You can 446 00:22:21,040 --> 00:22:23,840 Speaker 2: watch the show live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from 447 00:22:23,840 --> 00:22:27,120 Speaker 2: six am to nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast 448 00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:30,360 Speaker 2: on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and as 449 00:22:30,359 --> 00:22:33,280 Speaker 2: always on the Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business opp