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Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to What Goes Up, a weekly markets podcast.

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Speaker 1: My name is Mike Reagan. I'm a senior editor at Bloomberg,

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Speaker 1: and I'm Danna Higher across Acid reporter at Bloomberg. And

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Speaker 1: this week on the show, well did you ever get

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Speaker 1: to New Year's Eve and wish you could go back

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Speaker 1: in time and place all the trades that turned out

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Speaker 1: to be the winners that year? We'll talk to a

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg columnist who moonlights as the manager of a hedge fund. Well,

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Speaker 1: and I lusory hedge fund is what we'll call it.

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Speaker 1: It's called Hindsight Capital, and his strategy is exactly that,

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Speaker 1: and we'll talk about all the trades, all the wonderful

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Speaker 1: trades that he made this year. But first of all, Donna,

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Speaker 1: I gotta tell you, I was a columnist for a

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Speaker 1: long time at Bloomberg, and I think every columnist dreams

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Speaker 1: of one day being a hedge fund manager as well.

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Speaker 1: And I actually wrote a column one time about an

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Speaker 1: imaginary edge fund that I made up to try to

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Speaker 1: explain all the goings on in the markets. And I

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Speaker 1: gotta say, my bosses looked at me like they thought

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Speaker 1: I needed a psychiatric evaluation. It didn't go over so well, yeah,

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Speaker 1: are you sure that's the only reason they thought that? Well, yeah,

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Speaker 1: it might, There might be others. It's a thick file.

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Speaker 1: It's a thick file. A couple others. But our guest

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Speaker 1: this week gets away with it somehow. So why don't

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Speaker 1: you tell us who's joining us this week? He does so.

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Speaker 1: Our guest is John Author's he's the senior editor with

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Markets and he's the chief investment officer of Hindsight Capital. John,

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the show. It's sitting sitting in London at

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Speaker 1: this moment, which is very very pleasantive now rather a

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Speaker 1: bit of a ghostly place with the pandemic again, Jed,

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Speaker 1: I was going through Hindsights Capitals trades of the Are

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Speaker 1: you guys knocked it out of the park once again?

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Speaker 1: What can I say? Hindsight is a very powerful investment strategy,

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Speaker 1: but I think my favorite is used cars. You got

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Speaker 1: into the used cars business. Tell us about that a

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Speaker 1: little bit, right, But this is this is obviously I

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Speaker 1: only have practical data on the on the trades that

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Speaker 1: have been placed in public markets. But in the run

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Speaker 1: up to the the New year was buy up every

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Speaker 1: fleet of rental cars, it could possibly lay its hands

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Speaker 1: on cornered whole lots of used cars. Uh. And as

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Speaker 1: we know, the great boom in inflation this year was

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Speaker 1: quite something most you know, the prices of rental cars

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Speaker 1: and of used cars went up far more than for

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Speaker 1: much of the year. That was one heck of an investment.

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Speaker 1: So I forgot to mention we also there was also

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Speaker 1: the chartering some Chinese container ships during the Pacific route.

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Speaker 1: There there there their rates at one point quadrupled. Really

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Speaker 1: thinking out outside the box there, John, You know, I

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Speaker 1: I gotta say, I've met a lot of hedge fund

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Speaker 1: managers who remind me of used car salesman. But this

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Speaker 1: has taken it to another level. Yeah, this is this

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Speaker 1: is but this is the kind of innovative way that

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Speaker 1: that you need to think these days because private markets

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Speaker 1: in general are so efficient these days, it's hard to

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Speaker 1: beat them, hard to make real money unless you're armed

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Speaker 1: with hindsight. Well, John, speaking of China, you just mentioned

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Speaker 1: some of the shipping boxes that we've seen basically all year.

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Speaker 1: Can you talk about what we saw with China? Because

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Speaker 1: I was working on a story about some of the

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Speaker 1: things that people would like to leave behind from and

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Speaker 1: one of them was just Chinese equities. One portfolio manager's

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Speaker 1: book with said I really wish to leave that behind.

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Speaker 1: So can you tell us what you what you found

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Speaker 1: with China. You could see for a number of years

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Speaker 1: that there there was a confluence of factors coming together.

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Speaker 1: One was that China, obviously last year really had a

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Speaker 1: very nice boomlet in equities because for a while China

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Speaker 1: was doing better than anybody else coming out of the pandemic,

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Speaker 1: appeared to exit the pandemic before any announce You also

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Speaker 1: had the fact that we have all been all been

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Speaker 1: very well aware of the credit problems built up or

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Speaker 1: China by the way it had over expanded to to

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Speaker 1: deal with the GFC back in two nine. There was

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Speaker 1: plainly a come upance coming for that. And by the

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Speaker 1: by the beginning of this year it was really clear

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Speaker 1: who c Jing Ping was, what his attitude to the

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Speaker 1: private sector was. This was the year when he finally

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Speaker 1: really clamped down on that the what is he saw

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Speaker 1: as the overmighty private sector. So there are a couple

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Speaker 1: of trades that hindsight put on First, obviously, there's no

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Speaker 1: money to be made in China on the on the

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Speaker 1: long side. But if you went along in the market

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Speaker 1: that is doing best out of the decline of China

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Speaker 1: as a big exporter, which is Vietnam, which that's what

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Speaker 1: I still think is the world's best named index, the

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Speaker 1: ho Chi Minh Index, very unsporting of the Chinese, not

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Speaker 1: to rename the Shanghai composite, the mout say Tongue Index.

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Speaker 1: But there you go, so long hotel in index. And

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Speaker 1: then the best way to really get bank in the

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Speaker 1: bucket of shorting China was through a d R s.

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Speaker 1: There was American investors who really got fed up with

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Speaker 1: Chinese equities. So if you short the Bank of New

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Speaker 1: York Chinese a d R index, put those two traces

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Speaker 1: together and you make a hundred and that's not bad.

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Speaker 1: Hundred thirty will take that as future investors of Hindsight Capital. John,

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Speaker 1: that's not bad. Yeah, I'm curious about China, John, Um,

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Speaker 1: you know, and maybe we'll have to wait till New

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Speaker 1: Year's Eve of next year to find out how Hindsight

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Speaker 1: played this. But yeah, there's this, Yes, there's the sense

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Speaker 1: that you know, she Jun Pink kind of ripped the

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Speaker 1: band aid off all at once. When it comes to regulation.

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Speaker 1: That got it all over with that the worst is

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Speaker 1: behind us, and now you can kind of it's maybe

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Speaker 1: safe to go back into the water in China a

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Speaker 1: little bit that you know, they're sort of turning the

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Speaker 1: other way and we'll sort of stabilize prop up the economy.

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Speaker 1: Is it. What do you think is a two yearly

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Speaker 1: to sort of reverse that trade? Well, it's too early

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Speaker 1: for hindsight to let you know about. I think. I

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Speaker 1: think what's most what's most concerning there is is what

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Speaker 1: happens with the property market. China has decided whatever happens,

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Speaker 1: China is not going to have its own GFC, its

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Speaker 1: own Lehman crisis, and so there is a determination to

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Speaker 1: mop up the real estate center, which has obviously been

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Speaker 1: very badly over extended. If necessary, China is going to

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Speaker 1: you know that that's going to involve losing some money,

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Speaker 1: some more money next year. It's involved losing a lots

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Speaker 1: of money this year, which was actually another hindsight trade.

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Speaker 1: In fact, if you this this is a classic of

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Speaker 1: seeing what is cheap, remembering that the biggest determinant of

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Speaker 1: how how any investment is going to do is how

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Speaker 1: cheaply you buy it. So they went along the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: US Office Reat Index, which was seriously bombed out at

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Speaker 1: the end of last year, and shorten the Footsie Abbas

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Speaker 1: Chinese High Yield real Estate Index. And that made you

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Speaker 1: exactly which isn't bad in a year hindsight only deals

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Speaker 1: in triple digit returns that it seems like, well, unless

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Speaker 1: unless it's army is really twisted. It's it just it

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Speaker 1: prefers not to bother with anything that's that's only in

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Speaker 1: double digits. Just to stick with international markets. I know

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Speaker 1: you were looking at Turkey and the collapse of the

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Speaker 1: Turkish lira. I love reading stories about the lira because

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Speaker 1: there's always the clause that Turkey's president ur Twan has

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Speaker 1: this sort of counter to what you what regular economists

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Speaker 1: believe about interest rates, and what how cutting or raising

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Speaker 1: interest rates ties in with the economy. So can you

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Speaker 1: tell us what you found about the Turkish lira? Well,

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Speaker 1: he is indeed, in my day job of writing about

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Speaker 1: macro and cross assets and stuff, he is God's gift

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Speaker 1: to columnists because everybody else is having an argument about

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Speaker 1: when and how much to raise rates, and he is

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Speaker 1: the only person on the planet who actually seriously thinks

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Speaker 1: it's a good idea to cut them at this moment.

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Speaker 1: The currency market definitely doesn't agree. So you had a

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Speaker 1: series of four rate cuts by Turkey for a while. Amazingly,

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Speaker 1: Turkish real rates, if you subtracted the rate of inflation

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Speaker 1: from there from the bank rut, were actually not as

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Speaker 1: as they were in the States. American rates are stunning

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Speaker 1: lee accommodative, stunning lee easy at present. But by the

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Speaker 1: end of the year they had managed to cut even

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Speaker 1: lower in real terms. And what Hindsight does every year

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Speaker 1: is that it moves its office. One of the greatest

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Speaker 1: deliverers of returns in markets is money illusion. To denominate

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Speaker 1: yourself in a weak currency, you're going to make yourself

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Speaker 1: look much better. So they moved to a standbol which

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Speaker 1: is I've only been there once. It's a wonderful city.

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Speaker 1: The S and P was up twenty four in dollar terms,

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Speaker 1: but in lera terms it was up two when I

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Speaker 1: last checked. Another brilliant trade. And I know you're dabbling

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Speaker 1: in your You're dabbling in the h the digital asset markets.

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Speaker 1: John Long Ethereum shortsilver. Is this as simple as it seems,

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Speaker 1: is crypto of the new precious metal for those worried

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Speaker 1: about inflation and money supply and everything else. Given the

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Speaker 1: kind of desperation, you could see that the you know,

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Speaker 1: the the techno bros, of the crypto bros, the excitement

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Speaker 1: that was brewing over meme stocks at the beginning of

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Speaker 1: the year, whether you know, the Hindsight's macro people haven't,

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Speaker 1: unfortunately told me whether whether the crypto crazy is here

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Speaker 1: to here to stay, But it was obvious that there

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Speaker 1: was a lot more juice to squeeze out of crypto.

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Speaker 1: And that's a lot of people really do see it

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Speaker 1: as a substitute for precious metals. You you can't actually

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Speaker 1: wear the necklace made out of ethereum or bitcoin, or

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Speaker 1: you have a wedding ring made out of it. Still

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Speaker 1: people see it as some kind of a of a substitute.

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Speaker 1: So just to juice up the kind of money you

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Speaker 1: made in ethereum a little bit more, Hindsight financed it

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Speaker 1: by shorting silver, which is the world's which actually fell

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Speaker 1: quite a bit while the etherorum went up fifold. So

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Speaker 1: that the latest figure I have in front of me,

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Speaker 1: which may well be out of date by the time

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Speaker 1: we broadcast this, is that that that trade made six

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Speaker 1: shorting silver and putting it into a theory. Six. Hindsight

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Speaker 1: is a powerful investing strategy. It really the growth value

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Speaker 1: you know, you name it risk parity. None of these

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Speaker 1: strategies are going to do as well as hindsight period guaranteed.

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Speaker 1: So John, I know one big thing with cryptocurrencies this

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Speaker 1: year was their energy use. So I'm hoping you can

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Speaker 1: tell us about the clean energy sector and what you

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Speaker 1: found there. Okay, this this was fascinating. You had a

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Speaker 1: global economy that was still really being hit by all

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Speaker 1: the reverberations from the southern stop in the pandemic, particularly

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Speaker 1: in Europe. You also had the cross currents coming from

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Speaker 1: Vladimir Putin in the way that he was trying to

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Speaker 1: assert his country roll over Europe or assertin his power

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Speaker 1: by air by limiting supplies of natural gas. And there

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Speaker 1: is this discovery that it really was important to have

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Speaker 1: greater supplies of of traditional energy in stock while the

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Speaker 1: transition to newer, alternative, cleaner energy was underway. So the

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Speaker 1: one really successful trade was to go long natural gas features,

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Speaker 1: particularly gas natural gas features for the British and Netherlands markets,

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Speaker 1: while shorting the selective solar power index and index of

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Speaker 1: stocks that invest inlar power, which actually fell quite a

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Speaker 1: bit last year. The last time I checked that trade,

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Speaker 1: long natural gas short solar had made just slightly less

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Speaker 1: than seven for the year, which again is better than

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Speaker 1: a poke in the eye. The other big investment that

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Speaker 1: you could see coming a long way away was that

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Speaker 1: oil was asked officially depressed by all the fallout there

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Speaker 1: had been among OPEC plus last year, and that there

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Speaker 1: were now supply problems as demand was for for oil

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Speaker 1: was beginning to take off. And the way you make

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Speaker 1: a really good geared play on oil is through the

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Speaker 1: expiration section that the drillers. Meanwhile, clean energy as a whole,

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Speaker 1: people were so excited about it entering this year. Again

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Speaker 1: it was just a straightforward Benjamin Graham trade. Really just

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Speaker 1: buy oiled it. There's long oil, expiration stocks, short b SMP,

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Speaker 1: global clean energy, and that trade made about a hundred

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Speaker 1: and thirty not bad, not bad, not one of the best,

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Speaker 1: but that's they they all count John, you know, almost

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Speaker 1: a sucker for a good old man movie reference. So

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Speaker 1: I was I caught my eye. The I'm not dead

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Speaker 1: yet Monty Python trade also notes the at least we

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Speaker 1: reopened a little bit trade talk to us a little

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Speaker 1: bit about that. One another good re trade for the year.

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Speaker 1: This this is one of this, This was one of

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Speaker 1: my one of my favorites. I'm not yet is equote

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Speaker 1: from Monty Placing and the Holy Rail. Yes, and I

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Speaker 1: regarded he is going past yelling bring out your dead

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Speaker 1: and one of the eat Yes that did really badly

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Speaker 1: this year. It was the ticker symbol empty, which was

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Speaker 1: which is the decline of the retail stock trade, a

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Speaker 1: decline of the retail brist and more retail, which was

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Speaker 1: designed to short the companies that you that you go

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Speaker 1: to your mall. But by the end of last year

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Speaker 1: that had been taken to an extreme. People were expecting

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Speaker 1: malls to be going bankrupt, left, right and center. Meanwhile,

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Speaker 1: there was a belief that internet entertainment was here forever

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Speaker 1: and people have got over excited. There was a classic

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Speaker 1: pandemic trade. So all you needed to do was bet

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Speaker 1: that we would at least that that there was at

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Speaker 1: least some life left in the old concept of the

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Speaker 1: retail mall and that we would at least reopen a bit.

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Speaker 1: So if you go along the Bloomberg Regional Mall reat

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Speaker 1: Index and short the s and p five under at

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Speaker 1: home Entertainment Index. When I last check, that had made

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Speaker 1: a hundred and thirty three for the year. And at

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Speaker 1: the same time we had exactly what happening with our

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Speaker 1: US office property reets office property is it's another classic story.

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Speaker 1: Everybody desperately got out of office property reets last year

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Speaker 1: because but we all know why, we thought that everybody

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Speaker 1: was going to be working from home forever in a day.

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Speaker 1: It's still not clear exactly how much we are going

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Speaker 1: to a long term swards working from home, but it's

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Speaker 1: plain certainly we know Bloomberg there are a lot of

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Speaker 1: advantages still too to working in an office. So you know,

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Speaker 1: office routes are still not back to where they were

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Speaker 1: pre pandemic. But if you bought them at the beginning

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Speaker 1: of this year and coupled them with a short in

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Speaker 1: Chinese high yield real estate, which finally had its great

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Speaker 1: moment of destiny this year with the ever grand incident,

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Speaker 1: then that made just under one when I last checked.

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Speaker 1: There was money to be had, even in contrarians really need,

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Speaker 1: really can make a lot of money if you've got

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Speaker 1: the the interestinal fortune, fortitude to do it, or of course,

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Speaker 1: if you know the future that helps to Jed. I

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Speaker 1: was prized when I heard that Hindsight's portfolio managers were

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Speaker 1: not allowed to buy game Stop, I gotta wonder about

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Speaker 1: your chief risk officer. Did I assume you fired that

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Speaker 1: cheap chief risk officer over that? But talk to us

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Speaker 1: about that? Well, then basically this is just a standard

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Speaker 1: rule that if hind State is allowed to invest in

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Speaker 1: single stocks, then forget it that the kind of money

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Speaker 1: they're going to make is just infinite. So you know,

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Speaker 1: the regulator just won't let them play that. However, the

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Speaker 1: c I O DIDs want me to say it, even

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Speaker 1: though as we know, game Stop has come off a

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Speaker 1: lot down by more than from the top. How do

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Speaker 1: you bought James Stop on January one in lira and

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Speaker 1: held one Turkish lira would now be worth seventeen hundred

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Speaker 1: Turkish lira. So you know, there was a lot of

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Speaker 1: real irritation about not being allowed to to dive into

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Speaker 1: game Stop. But there you go. And how happy were

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Speaker 1: you to not own Cathy Woods arc et F Can

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Speaker 1: you talk about that because that one was a big

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Speaker 1: name in but it hasn't done as well. No, not

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Speaker 1: necessarily because there's anything wrong with Cathy Wood strategy. It

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Speaker 1: was just there was something wrong with piling into her

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Speaker 1: her fund in the way that people did. It's a

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Speaker 1: classic issue that has long been there in the mutual

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Speaker 1: fund world as well. If lots of people give you

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Speaker 1: more money, you have to deploy that money somehow, and

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Speaker 1: generally speaking much harder for you to to make the

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Speaker 1: underlying portfolio work really well. There had been so much

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Speaker 1: of a excitement around Kathy Woods. The amount of Kathy

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Speaker 1: would merch that was available at the end of last

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Speaker 1: year was just such an obvious scientist short arc. You

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Speaker 1: don't hindsights. Managers don't quite understand how people didn't didn't

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Speaker 1: get that, so all you needed to do. You know,

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Speaker 1: it's like if the CEO has just opened a brand new,

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Speaker 1: gorgeous new headquarters, you short the stock. If if you

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Speaker 1: can get the c I O S face on a

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Speaker 1: T shirt, you probably don't want to be in that

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Speaker 1: funds just at the moment. So if you go long spy,

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Speaker 1: it's not the greatest trade. But if you go long spy,

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Speaker 1: just boring, straightforward, just go with the market. Short arc

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Speaker 1: sixty when I last checked, which is you know, respectable

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Speaker 1: small potatoes behindside capital. But it's again, it's a lot

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Speaker 1: better than a boken the eye. Yeah. For the mirrormortal

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Speaker 1: uh fund managers who do not employ the power of

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Speaker 1: fine site that that's nothing. I thought when Cathy, when

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Speaker 1: the ARC site offered a backpack a bag, I thought

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Speaker 1: that was a signed to for the bag holders. You

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Speaker 1: know that that you don't want an ARC theme bag.

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Speaker 1: You could almost directly say you are going to be

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Speaker 1: left holding the bag one more. Before we get to

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Speaker 1: the craziest things of the errors. V Donna calls them

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Speaker 1: the weirdest thing, or is Down calls them the madest thing,

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00:20:03,480 --> 00:20:07,880
Speaker 1: which might be my favorite pressures of pandemic life. Long

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Speaker 1: coffee short beer stacks. I usually go long beer post

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Speaker 1: market and then long coffee in the pre market the

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Speaker 1: next morning. But talk to us about this trade. Uh.

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Speaker 1: This this is a trade that is quite something. Basically,

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Speaker 1: coffee is benefiting from supply chain problems. You have to

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Speaker 1: bring it in from all kinds of interesting, faraway places

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Speaker 1: and there is a lot of demand for it. Meanwhile, basically,

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Speaker 1: because drinking together is still not back in full swing,

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Speaker 1: people tend not to drink so much beer. They tend

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Speaker 1: to drink other things if they're not if they're not

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Speaker 1: socializing in big groups. So, given that things were not

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Speaker 1: getting back to normal as many had hope this year,

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Speaker 1: if you went long coffee futures and shorts s and

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Speaker 1: P five hundred brewery sick to that made you an

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Speaker 1: amazing hundred and fifty. It was. It's an extraordinary thing.

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Speaker 1: But we we are all at this moment desperate for

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Speaker 1: caffeine and less desperate for alcohol. Very interesting, very it's

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Speaker 1: it all. It all plays out in the narrative of

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Speaker 1: the year end letter. And if you haven't picked up

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Speaker 1: on it by now, hindsight capital exists basically only in

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Speaker 1: John's imagination and UH and in the year end and

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Speaker 1: the but real, the real thing is the year end

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Speaker 1: Letter to Investors that we all look forward to UH

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Speaker 1: as one of John's final columns columns of the year,

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Speaker 1: and it's just a great way to recap the year.

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Speaker 1: John has been doing it for years, and some way

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Speaker 1: John will figure out to really employ hindsight in the

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Speaker 1: capital markets and then we can finally retire. I think

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Speaker 1: exactly exactly I'm looking forward to that. Tieden up your

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Speaker 1: straight jackets. It's time for the craziest things we saw

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Speaker 1: in markets this week. Well, Dona, let's get to those

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Speaker 1: crazy things. It was a crazy year, a lot of

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Speaker 1: mad things, weird things in the market. What's what's your

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Speaker 1: pick for the craziest thing all year? Well, obviously it

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Speaker 1: has There's just so many things to choose from this.

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Speaker 1: I think the staying power of Game Stop investors, AMC investors,

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Speaker 1: and me still getting text messages from friends asking about

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Speaker 1: game Stop and all these other things, that really is.

359
00:22:27,800 --> 00:22:31,639
Speaker 1: It's amazing. But I'm going to go with Facebook's name change.

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Speaker 1: So if you remember a couple of months ago, Facebook

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Speaker 1: changed its name to Meta. They're also in the process,

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Speaker 1: I believe, of changing their ticker, so there was some confusion,

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Speaker 1: even with investors putting some money towards an e t

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Speaker 1: F that had the metaverse ticker and and theme on it.

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Speaker 1: So I think that's one of the most strangest, weirdest,

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Speaker 1: maddest things that we've seen, just because everything that the

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Speaker 1: company has been going through, and we'll see how well

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Speaker 1: it sticks. I think even still in stories people say

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Speaker 1: Facebook parent Meta Yeah, so it's not really working yet

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Speaker 1: in Google parent alphabet. We we can't give up those

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Speaker 1: all that is a good one. I'm gonna pile onto

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Speaker 1: your meme stock thing a little bit to me, John,

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Speaker 1: It's it's funny how often professional fund managers such as

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Speaker 1: yourself are compared to are compared to monkeys. You know,

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Speaker 1: it goes back to the Grandam Walk on Wall Street.

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Speaker 1: Bert Bert mart Peel, who I believe you correct me

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Speaker 1: if I'm wrong, was the first to say that, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, a monkey throwing darts at a newspaper stock

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Speaker 1: listening page could probably equal the performance of um, your

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Speaker 1: average fund manager. Shure enough. This year, not so much monkeys,

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Speaker 1: but they're Simeon cousins. The apes really took over the markets.

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Speaker 1: You had the word Apiacht Club, you had the amc

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Speaker 1: uh long crowd calling themselves the Ape Army, and that

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Speaker 1: that a bunch of other APE n f T projects.

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Speaker 1: So year of the Ape, I think Planet of the Apes,

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Speaker 1: and I wonder if it goes back to Bird's monkeys

387
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Speaker 1: throwing the darts. Maybe there's a connection there. I don't know.

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Speaker 1: But what's the beddest thing you saw this year? John?

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Speaker 1: I'll give you to one meme related and one non

390
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Speaker 1: meme related, and the meme related one is obviously the

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Speaker 1: greatest meme stock of all is tes La. Obviously has

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Speaker 1: lots of wonderful things about it, but it does behave

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Speaker 1: like a meme stock. I think the fact that Elon

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Speaker 1: Musk has now become the world's richest man, when he

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Speaker 1: spent a lot of time on Twitter advertising that he

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Speaker 1: was going to set up in a new university called

397
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Speaker 1: Texas Institute of Technology and Science, and he was really

398
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Speaker 1: looking forward to selling people the merch with that on

399
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Speaker 1: his shirt. The fact that somebody with a sense of

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00:24:50,800 --> 00:24:54,040
Speaker 1: humor that's still stuck at the age of about twelve

401
00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:58,600
Speaker 1: can become the world's richest man, and that so many

402
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:02,240
Speaker 1: people can follow him in such logical ways, such a

403
00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:08,040
Speaker 1: passionate way is mad, and it's my opinion it's truly mad.

404
00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:10,960
Speaker 1: And not only that, but also to start a Twitter

405
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Speaker 1: we're with you, know, Elizabeth Warren. Imagine if you know,

406
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Speaker 1: if if I told you a few years ago that

407
00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:18,000
Speaker 1: the richest man in the world would be fighting on

408
00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:20,960
Speaker 1: Twitter with one of the most powerful senators in the US,

409
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Speaker 1: I don't think anyone would believe it. I think it

410
00:25:23,440 --> 00:25:26,600
Speaker 1: sounds like something out of hindsight Capital's letter. But let's

411
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Speaker 1: figure out a way to play that trade. My final

412
00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:33,200
Speaker 1: other mad thing, which is instant with the benefit of

413
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Speaker 1: hindsights and does come with it with some frustration, is

414
00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 1: that this year, I please doesn't always happen. But I

415
00:25:41,240 --> 00:25:45,040
Speaker 1: did get one really big macro coal really right, which

416
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Speaker 1: is that if you can see that those right, januine pepparty.

417
00:25:48,240 --> 00:25:50,680
Speaker 1: I did think there was a very serious chance that

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Speaker 1: inflation was going to take off this year. Clever, clever me.

419
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Speaker 1: And therefore, of course, as I could see that inflation

420
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Speaker 1: was likely to take off, I therefore thought that bond

421
00:26:01,880 --> 00:26:05,600
Speaker 1: deals were going to shoot up through the they had

422
00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:08,879
Speaker 1: to do if inflation is gone. So I got the

423
00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:12,240
Speaker 1: macro call right and the market call. Even though I

424
00:26:12,280 --> 00:26:15,720
Speaker 1: got the Macro call right completely wrong. I would like

425
00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:19,800
Speaker 1: to think that was crazy. It's probably more something else.

426
00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:23,639
Speaker 1: But yeah, well I don't think you're the only one

427
00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:26,160
Speaker 1: who got those those one thing right and the other

428
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:29,000
Speaker 1: thing wrong. I was that was a tough one. I

429
00:26:29,080 --> 00:26:31,680
Speaker 1: think that was a pain trade for a lot of people, Yeah,

430
00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:35,960
Speaker 1: including me. But with that, what what a year? John

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Speaker 1: Author's privilege and a pleasure to have you come recap

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Speaker 1: the year for us and can't wait to see all

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Speaker 1: the great trades that hindsight places for two. Of course

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Speaker 1: we'll figure out what those are at the end of

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Speaker 1: the naship. They're not that's not going to be known

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Speaker 1: until the end of next year. That hindsight always really

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Speaker 1: really let's see about not letting it not see anybody

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Speaker 1: know it's trades in real time with it all makes sense.

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Speaker 1: That all makes sense. Thank you John for joining us

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Speaker 1: What Goes Up. We'll be back next week until the

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Speaker 1: You can find us on the Bloomberg Terminal, website and

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Speaker 1: show on Apple Podcasts so more listeners can find us.

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Speaker 1: And you can find us on Twitter, follow me at Reaganonymous.

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Speaker 1: Charlie Pelletta Bloomberg Radio. What Goes Up is produced by

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Speaker 1: Laura Carlson. The head of Bloomberg Podcast is Francesco Levy.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for listening. See you next time. U