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Speaker 1: KS gambling help dot com. In Kansas one eight seven

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Speaker 1: Gambling Help dot org in Maryland one eight seven seven

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Speaker 1: eight Hope and Why, or text Hope and Why four

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Speaker 1: six seven three in New York, one five to two

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Speaker 1: four seven zero zero in Wyoming, or visit one eight

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Speaker 1: hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to The Favorites,

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Speaker 1: the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Millman,

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Speaker 1: chief Content Officer of the Action Network. We are heading

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Speaker 1: into conference championship weekend. The Bengals are visiting the Chiefs,

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Speaker 1: the Niners are visiting the Eagles. Lines have been moving.

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Speaker 1: There was crazy injury analysis to do and to consider.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna do it all. Me and my co host,

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Speaker 1: my bff, my companion, my compadre, professional Better, Simon Hunter,

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Speaker 1: hellos sim In, Hello Chad. Are we doing brother, dude?

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Speaker 1: I mean we fucking crushed last week? Yeah? Good, good

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Speaker 1: week to be an under better. We really did amazingly well.

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Speaker 1: I'm super proud of us, um and this week is

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Speaker 1: shaping up to be super super interesting. Of course. Um

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Speaker 1: last week now, I can't find anything that I think

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Speaker 1: I think I can do it. I think um the

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Speaker 1: Foxhole bet I believe was the Bills minus four and

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Speaker 1: a half. That's only loss. That was our only loss. Um,

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Speaker 1: you were all over the Eagles, Simon says, was all

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Speaker 1: over the Eagles. That was smart moved by them never

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Speaker 1: touching the seven because I would have unloaded on that number.

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Speaker 1: So but that ended up being our big balls, not

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Speaker 1: our Simon says. Simon says, I told everyone take the

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Speaker 1: under early on the Cowboys, and the actually didn't work out.

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Speaker 1: They went to forty seven and then and then dropped

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Speaker 1: back down. So it's all right. I wanted anyways. And

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Speaker 1: the exact decision was the under. I had given it

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Speaker 1: out at fifty one and a half and then it

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Speaker 1: bumped up to fifty three. Also worked against us, didn't matter,

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Speaker 1: didn't matter. That was the line, and that achieves Jags.

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Speaker 1: I mean, look that game. Let's just talk about that

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Speaker 1: for a second. Um, Like we gotta unpack some of this.

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Speaker 1: We also we also were pretty heavy on the Jacks

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Speaker 1: plus eight and a half. Jack's plus nine and a half.

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Speaker 1: We bet at at fifty one and a half under.

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Speaker 1: We bettered at fifty three under, and like we threaded

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Speaker 1: that fucking needle. And I gotta tell you, I knew

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Speaker 1: they were going to kick a field goal. Like that's

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Speaker 1: the right move. I felt so confident they were going

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Speaker 1: to cover that, and I wasn't even that nervous about it.

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Speaker 1: I mean, like a lile was pretty nervous. Doug Dougs

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Speaker 1: are good man. Doug Peterson is that good man. But

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Speaker 1: it honestly played out perfectly in the sense of they

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Speaker 1: got the third down completion that put him into field

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Speaker 1: goal range, and it was fourth down, in like fourth

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Speaker 1: and eight whatever it was. It was like, Okay, the

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Speaker 1: math literally says you're to kick a field goal even

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Speaker 1: if you've got even if you're piste off like Doug

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Speaker 1: clearly was, it's still clear enough. And it said, we're, okay,

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Speaker 1: this is the right move. You can you kick the three,

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Speaker 1: then you go for the onsider um. A simple fact

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Speaker 1: of Again, we we try to make it not as complicated.

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Speaker 1: We'll talk about these other games obviously, but just this

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Speaker 1: game was the classic. Don't ever think it. Keep it simple, stupid.

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Speaker 1: What do we talk all year? Anytime the homes was

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Speaker 1: catching a large amount of points over at a field goal,

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Speaker 1: we talked, his numbers are bad. He does not cover

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Speaker 1: these big spreads. So we took the big number. Andy

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Speaker 1: Reid at home in the playoffs. We gave out the

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Speaker 1: stat in his career and the spread was seven or larger.

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Speaker 1: It's to the under, Like, we're not rewriting the wheel here,

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Speaker 1: We're simply betting where the value was and where the

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Speaker 1: trends actually backed it. So um. We talked about the time.

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Speaker 1: We don't always just blindly bet trends, but it's nice

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Speaker 1: when they line up with your idea of the perfect situation.

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Speaker 1: So that game, I know people are like, well, you

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Speaker 1: got lucky. All these things plat out. It literally played

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Speaker 1: out the exact way we envisioned it. It just all

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Speaker 1: the little bounces, even with my homes going out, It

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Speaker 1: didn't matter their backup TV came and drive yards to

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Speaker 1: score a touchdown. It was just it's just a classic

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Speaker 1: Vegas number. They just knew they had to move the

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Speaker 1: number up because the teasers we talked all the time,

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Speaker 1: we were getting two three points. Number should probably been seven,

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Speaker 1: seven and a half. They closed almost had ten, had

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Speaker 1: a lot of books, like a lot of books. Was

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Speaker 1: literally letting you buy the point to ten for no

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Speaker 1: real juice. So um. Yeah, great great read by us

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Speaker 1: um that that Saturday. Just in general. Yeah, we're about

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Speaker 1: to talk about the Eagles. Yeah, we'll get to the

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Speaker 1: Eagles those by the way, hold on, we're not talking

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Speaker 1: about the Eagles yet. Okay, do you have more you

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Speaker 1: want to say on the Jacks Chiefs because we got

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Speaker 1: unpacked this a little bit more. Um, yeah, jack. What

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Speaker 1: I was just gonna say was, it's the perfect scenario

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Speaker 1: if you're a fan of the show. Where we gave

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Speaker 1: out the Jaguars at a hundred fifty two hundred one

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Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl. We gave out the Chiefs

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Speaker 1: at all having a one tender one. That's the dream scenario.

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Speaker 1: Like people are asking me what I was doing with

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Speaker 1: the moneyline, It's like nothing, I'm literally sitting on two

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Speaker 1: huge futures, um, just playing the Jackson spread. So that's

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Speaker 1: why I treated out the bit like say no and

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Speaker 1: then saying funk on Twitter because it's like, well, there

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Speaker 1: goes my Chiefs futures. As soon as Mahomes got rolled

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Speaker 1: up on where we talked at the time. It's the

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Speaker 1: worst part of football. This is why I'm all for

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Speaker 1: protecting these qbs in every every way, um, because you

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Speaker 1: just want to see the best football in the best competition.

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Speaker 1: That's what Mahomes is he's the best competition. H it's

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Speaker 1: rewriting the rule book, reinventing the wheel. That's that's what

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Speaker 1: we don't want to do. We don't need to know

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Speaker 1: what I'm saying. I blacked out. I know you're listen. Listen.

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Speaker 1: I'm here to help. Okay, now you guys Texas, that

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Speaker 1: where my phone's blowing up there. Yes, can't get you

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Speaker 1: can't you can't get cliches. I Matt Mitchell. He will

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Speaker 1: be on you like a schoolmarm correcting your grammar. Okay,

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Speaker 1: like you can all these chat GPTs, artificial intelligence grammarly,

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Speaker 1: they're all brilliant. At the end of the day, Matt Mitchell,

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Speaker 1: he could do it all just for the entire world.

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Speaker 1: I've never never proclaimed on the sharpest knife in the drawer.

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Speaker 1: There you go, There you go, buddy. Um that Jack's game,

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Speaker 1: that that drive was so frustrating. It was playing out

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Speaker 1: perfectly for us. Like as a Jags team, that's your

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Speaker 1: moment to see you the deal. That is your moment

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Speaker 1: to define yourself as the dominant team. In that game.

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Speaker 1: You had a guy who's played eighteen snaps none meaningful

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Speaker 1: come off the bench from yards like longness drive in

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Speaker 1: Chiefs postseason history at ten point lead. Come on, man,

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Speaker 1: you don't deserved to win that game after that? And Uh, Jags,

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Speaker 1: it's so simple. They already know what they gotta do.

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Speaker 1: Just draft defense. That's all you gotta do. Now. You

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Speaker 1: got the offense, you got the weapons. Maybe you throw

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Speaker 1: an old alignment in there right now and then, But

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Speaker 1: to me, it's Doug Peterson had to be go to

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Speaker 1: sleep with a smile on his face. I mean, this

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Speaker 1: is the dream right now. They got they got the offense,

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Speaker 1: they just need the defense. Yeah, No, it was great.

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Speaker 1: It was great. Uh that Eagles game. Shout out to

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Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson, who UH had commented in analysis during the

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Speaker 1: week on Action Network take the Eagles online minus twenty

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Speaker 1: and a half at plus three fifty and it became

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Speaker 1: something that a lot of people at Action ended up playing.

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Speaker 1: Um and that was super fun too, because Simon, kudos

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Speaker 1: to you, Ku does to you, and kudos to me,

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Speaker 1: but mostly kudos to you because we recorded the pod

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Speaker 1: last week Tuesday in our new studio in the office. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you kept leaning on the Eagles and you're you're sneaky

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Speaker 1: because you know a lot of ship and you kept

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Speaker 1: leaning on the Eagles, and you kept talking about Jalen Hurts.

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Speaker 1: And I've listened to you often enough to know there

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Speaker 1: are certain things when you're saying them, you can't say

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Speaker 1: them out loud, but you're saying enough to let people know,

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Speaker 1: don't be an idiot. Do what I'm saying. And I

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Speaker 1: mentioned on the podcast like, oh, I hear it, I'm

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Speaker 1: reading between the lines. You fucking nail that game. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I think that's the tough part of the Tuesday's show

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Speaker 1: where it's like I want to come in really hard,

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Speaker 1: but I also know how big our show is, and

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Speaker 1: if I tell everyone the Eagles gonna be my biggest

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Speaker 1: bet of the week, I'm never gonna see that seven.

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Speaker 1: It didn't matter. We never saw the seven anyway. So

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Speaker 1: that was one of those my time. Thursday came right now,

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Speaker 1: just like we gotta we just gotta bite the bullet.

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Speaker 1: You just gotta take the seven and a half, because

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Speaker 1: that was not your classic overreaction game, but it really

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Speaker 1: was of like the Eagles hadn't played well in a month,

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Speaker 1: and you know, the Giants, you can't get any more

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Speaker 1: smoked up their ass. I mean, people are literally talking

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Speaker 1: about Brian Dable as the coach of the year, a

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Speaker 1: man that came third in his division. It was a

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Speaker 1: weird time we were living and it was like, I

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Speaker 1: can't be the assholete being like you want the guy

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Speaker 1: who won third in his division to be coach of

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Speaker 1: the year. It's like, I completely understand he turned around

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Speaker 1: the Giants franchise, but turn around to what get blowing

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Speaker 1: the hell out in the divisional around? It was just

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Speaker 1: your classic during the season overreaction. I mean, even if

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Speaker 1: you look at his last ten games, ship, he's got

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Speaker 1: a tie in there, so I think he was three

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Speaker 1: six and one in his last ten so crazy season.

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Speaker 1: I mean, he literally got every ounce he could out

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Speaker 1: of Daniel Jones. Like, that's why we're gonna talk about

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Speaker 1: the Bills coming up. This is a simple reason why

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Speaker 1: I thought last year was best Bills team. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: get like his coaching. You see how incredible. It's like

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Speaker 1: that what he got at that Giant's team was incredible

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Speaker 1: and you saw come crashing down in that Eagles game

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Speaker 1: where we talked all the time, I got that Bills

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Speaker 1: one dead wrong because I was overvaluing the defensive and

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Speaker 1: offensive line too much. This Eagles one is what I

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Speaker 1: dream of. It's like you're getting the best OH line

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Speaker 1: and the best D line and a huge mismatch. And

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Speaker 1: we talk all the time, like I give people in

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Speaker 1: my secrets all the time. That's stuff I look for.

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Speaker 1: If there's a huge mitch match on both the defensive

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Speaker 1: an offensive line, you slam those numbers. You just throughout

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Speaker 1: the rest of it. The rest is just noisome bullshit.

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Speaker 1: You slam that stuff when there's a big mismatch. What

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Speaker 1: do you see in the Eagles that Eagles game? A

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Speaker 1: hundred fifty yards before contact to the running backs, huge deal.

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Speaker 1: What do you see on the defensive line? They were

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Speaker 1: all over Daniel Jones But end of the first quarter,

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Speaker 1: the kid was shook because he was just getting laid

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Speaker 1: out every time he dropped back. So um pissed. I

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Speaker 1: didn't bet more. Piston never got to the seven. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: I loved, loved that sign. It felt good. Where you know,

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Speaker 1: a lot noise from the fans just about me being

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Speaker 1: an Eagles fan. I tell the people of the time,

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Speaker 1: I literally don't care like I bet a number. It's

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Speaker 1: irrelevant that I'm a fan. Um one of those where

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Speaker 1: as a fan It made me more timid because I

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Speaker 1: was like with them in the sense of maybe I

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Speaker 1: am undervelling this Giants team, and I think everyone can agree,

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Speaker 1: just like in that Bills a game, you knew within

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Speaker 1: the first quarter which side was gonna win and cover

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Speaker 1: that game. So um, it felt felt good. I didn't

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Speaker 1: get sucked in because a lot of pros they fucking

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Speaker 1: loved the Giants, and I let them talk to me

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Speaker 1: off one game last week. But luckily it wasn't the

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Speaker 1: egos one because the Giants betting from the pros is

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Speaker 1: real like that there was a large amount of big

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Speaker 1: bets coming in the Giants, So um, big split game

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Speaker 1: and once again it's it's the playoffs. Guys are just

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Speaker 1: split on both sides. Yeah, they talked us off the

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Speaker 1: Niners and off U. You know what. I was watching

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Speaker 1: that game, and uh, I don't feel badly about the

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Speaker 1: side that we played. I mean, obviously I feel badly

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Speaker 1: because we didn't win, but going out, like as soon

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Speaker 1: as Poler went out, we both kind of, like anyone

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Speaker 1: to bet the Cowboys kind of knew your fucked. Yeah

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Speaker 1: you knew you were fucked, and like I just sort

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Speaker 1: of I believe that Poler stays in and the Cowboys

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Speaker 1: probably gone that game or cover right, It's just a

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Speaker 1: different game. So I didn't feel I didn't feel badly

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Speaker 1: about that. UM. We also as you as you mentioned, uh,

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Speaker 1: we loved the Cowboys under um and that was never

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Speaker 1: like damn, You've taught me. You know a lot of

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Speaker 1: a lot of smart things on this podcast. But one

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Speaker 1: thing that I did this weekend to an extreme more

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Speaker 1: than I've done in the past. When I liked the

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Speaker 1: number and I wasn't getting the best of it earlier

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Speaker 1: in the week and it moved against us, I just

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Speaker 1: kept betting it. Jack's long term. I'll tell your time,

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Speaker 1: the long term. That's how you build a nice bank

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Speaker 1: roll where you just have to keep because it's not

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Speaker 1: always gonna work out. We're not always gonna thread the

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Speaker 1: need on that Jags game. Chat could have easily gone

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Speaker 1: for four. UM. But that's why you trust the numbers.

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Speaker 1: You keep back in the number when it moves against you.

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Speaker 1: All right, So, UM, you know this weekend, I'll let's

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Speaker 1: say we got I know you gave Matt Mitchell your

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Speaker 1: word you wouldn't talk about the bills. UM. I did

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Speaker 1: not give no said word I would not talk about

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Speaker 1: the Bills. The Bills fans gotta fucking eat it. They

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Speaker 1: gotta eat it bad too. Holy sh it, did we

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Speaker 1: hear so much all summer about this team being bet

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Speaker 1: everyone's betting, even pros are betting them. In what fucking world?

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Speaker 1: Where that should? They have been the most beat team

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Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl, a team that not only

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Speaker 1: Josh Allen never been to a super Bowl, this franchise

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Speaker 1: never won, never won one, at least in my lifetime.

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Speaker 1: I don't know about Man Mitchell's lifetime's lifetime. It's a joke,

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Speaker 1: but it's just it's a lesson for everyone. Listen to

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Speaker 1: this show where I don't hate the Bills at all.

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Speaker 1: I like the Bills. I'm a fan of the Bills.

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Speaker 1: Who doesn't want a team that's never won a Super

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Speaker 1: Bowl to win one. My whole argument agains some all

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Speaker 1: summer was they had zero value. There literally was a

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Speaker 1: public perception team of well, they were just a literally

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Speaker 1: nine seconds away from being in the a f C

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Speaker 1: Championship game. If that thing, they go in the homes.

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Speaker 1: So that's why they're the odds on favorite to win

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Speaker 1: the super Bowl. Going into last season, it was bizarre.

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Speaker 1: So I talked about going to the playoffs. The only

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Speaker 1: two teams that could really fuck me if they win

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Speaker 1: it this year will be the Bills and the forty

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Speaker 1: nine Ers. The Bills are gone, no surprise though, Like

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Speaker 1: I literally backed them this week. I was gonna fade

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Speaker 1: them no matter what going into Kansas City. Um, just

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Speaker 1: because Josh is oh and two against my homes. So

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Speaker 1: for me, if you're a Bills fan, the silver lining

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Speaker 1: is that elbow issue has to be something. Like I

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Speaker 1: know they played it all all season. You can just

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Speaker 1: look at the numbers. Ever since he banged up that elbow,

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Speaker 1: Josh just wasn't the same quarterback accuracy, everything was different. Um.

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Speaker 1: The big question now if you're a Bills fan is

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Speaker 1: what do you do with the head coach position? Um,

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Speaker 1: we've seen the whole lead shift. So uh, I don't

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Speaker 1: know what they're gonna do the Bills because they're kind

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Speaker 1: of stuck now, Like they got this team that's built

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Speaker 1: for indoors and they're an outdoor team. Um, it's gonna

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Speaker 1: be really interesting where I I do think last year

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Speaker 1: is their best best team they're gonna have so um

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Speaker 1: payingful obviously for Bills fans, but you have Josh Allen,

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Speaker 1: so it's like you're getting no fucking pity from me.

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Speaker 1: I don't think anything, especially chat sitting here with the Bears.

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Speaker 1: They haven't had a Josh Allen of his life, so um, no,

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Speaker 1: no pity from any fan base. But just one of those.

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Speaker 1: If they open as again the favorite to win the

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Speaker 1: Super Bowl, untouchable. Now if you give me them fifteen

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Speaker 1: to one, fourteen to one, me and Chad will love

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Speaker 1: the Bills next year. So that's just how it is.

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Speaker 1: Like that was all season. People are like, you're so

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Speaker 1: down the Bills. It was never about that, simply a

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Speaker 1: value beat business. Um. I just want people understand that

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Speaker 1: where it's like it's literally nothing personal. I just talked

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Speaker 1: all summer that the Chiefs should have been the one seed.

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Speaker 1: They end up being the one seed. The Bills were

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Speaker 1: a great team. I never thought they should have been

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Speaker 1: the odds on Super Bowl favorite. Matt Mitchell didn't feel

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Speaker 1: that way either. He slacked us. It's the last thing

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Speaker 1: I want to say about looking back, because I want

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Speaker 1: us to get to these two games. They're really interesting.

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Speaker 1: I think that the contrast and Matt Mitchell can weigh

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Speaker 1: in on this U through slack or verbally, I know

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Speaker 1: what the people on IM can't hear. But at the

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Speaker 1: end of the day, I think these teams are a

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Speaker 1: reflection of their quarterbacks. And the Bengals are and infinitely calm,

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Speaker 1: cocky without with reason to be confident team. Yeah, and

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Speaker 1: I think the Bills are a bit whiny and dramatic.

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Speaker 1: But I know people are giving dig ship though, but

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Speaker 1: I get it as a compacive digs like, like I thought,

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Speaker 1: his response is great, you want me to be happy

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Speaker 1: with losing. I don't. I'm really thinking about Josh Allen,

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Speaker 1: who seems to be like he plays in peaks and

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Speaker 1: valleys right. When things are going great, he's great, He's unstoppable.

339
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Speaker 1: But when things are not going well, he's very reactive.

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Speaker 1: He gets whiny, he gets frustrated. He's looking at rafts

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Speaker 1: like it's just you can see, and so I'm curious

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Speaker 1: to see they don't seem to have a real The

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Speaker 1: Bengals have developed a personality, right. They are a team

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Speaker 1: that is that will whether it's Jamaar Chase, Joe Mixon,

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Speaker 1: they'll punch you in the mouth, right, And I don't

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Speaker 1: get that sense from the Bills. It could have been

347
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Speaker 1: more wrong in that game when I think he started

348
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Speaker 1: nine for nine Burrow, it was. It was terrible. It

349
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Speaker 1: were cooked. I mean, the dude, he's a fucking killer.

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Speaker 1: Like I don't want talk too much about because we're

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Speaker 1: about to talk about them the next two episodes of Nausea.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, Joe Burrow is a certified killer. Well let's

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Speaker 1: talk about it. So the Chiefs are playing the Bengals,

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Speaker 1: and you know, this is the second game on on

355
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Speaker 1: Sunday AFC title game. The game opened it Bengals plus three,

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Speaker 1: and it opened it fifty two and a half. I

357
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Speaker 1: bet it at Bengals plus three, fifty one and a half.

358
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Speaker 1: The fifty two and a half I think was available

359
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Speaker 1: maybe four thirty five seconds. I don't know if you

360
00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:31,000
Speaker 1: got a fifty two and a half. But this line

361
00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:34,760
Speaker 1: has been just now it's two and a half of

362
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Speaker 1: the Bengals, I think, and the line is and the

363
00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:40,680
Speaker 1: totals at seven. I mean, obviously it's all around Patrick Mahomes,

364
00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:43,520
Speaker 1: but funk, what an interesting match up here? Yeah, two

365
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Speaker 1: and a half. Kansas City is now a two and

366
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Speaker 1: a half point favorite, I mean two half point under dog.

367
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Speaker 1: So yeah, that's we joke all the time. But those

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Speaker 1: are fire able lines that they hung up there like

369
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Speaker 1: people that hung those lines. I don't want to make

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Speaker 1: like this is something we're talking the off season about

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Speaker 1: where the lines come from. But this kind of shows

372
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Speaker 1: you that all lines are critically equally a lot of

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Speaker 1: these books, when they try to go off on their

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Speaker 1: own and make their own lines, they get I mean destroyed.

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Speaker 1: So classic couple of books opened just to get feelers.

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Speaker 1: So that's why I like, I wanted to go off

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Speaker 1: the early lines just because I couldn't even get that

378
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Speaker 1: much money down. Um, we already talked about to me.

379
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Speaker 1: The biggest thing was they hung out one and a

380
00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:26,920
Speaker 1: half all of Monday on Sincy, and I tweeted out

381
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Speaker 1: maybe it was Sunday night that a lot of the

382
00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:32,800
Speaker 1: early big money was just coming in heavy on Sincy.

383
00:20:32,920 --> 00:20:34,399
Speaker 1: To just let people know where I was at, in

384
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Speaker 1: the sense of if you had a future on the Chiefs,

385
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Speaker 1: um you got them at tender eleven one. It's an

386
00:20:42,080 --> 00:20:44,760
Speaker 1: easy spot to take a position on Cincinnati. So already

387
00:20:44,800 --> 00:20:46,439
Speaker 1: talked to chat about this. Say I had fifty K

388
00:20:46,680 --> 00:20:49,480
Speaker 1: me and my group on the Chiefs at ten to one,

389
00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:53,639
Speaker 1: that's the chance of winning five thousand dollars. Obviously being

390
00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:56,199
Speaker 1: idiots not to put at least a hundred fifty k

391
00:20:56,400 --> 00:20:59,200
Speaker 1: on since at a money line or plus one and

392
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Speaker 1: a half whenever we whatever we wanted to do, just

393
00:21:01,640 --> 00:21:03,960
Speaker 1: in a sense that my home's had a serious injury.

394
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Speaker 1: Like we saw how different that game was once he

395
00:21:06,400 --> 00:21:08,880
Speaker 1: had that injury. Now he just wasn't running or moving

396
00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:12,480
Speaker 1: outside the pocket. Now do I think it's worth five

397
00:21:12,600 --> 00:21:15,000
Speaker 1: or six points, No, but I think it's moved this much.

398
00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:16,880
Speaker 1: I think Chad are alluded to a little bit of

399
00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:20,919
Speaker 1: the early money has just been so heavy Bengals, and

400
00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:24,600
Speaker 1: nothing's touched. Chiefs like pros like me are just gonna wait,

401
00:21:24,640 --> 00:21:26,760
Speaker 1: like give give us plus three and then we'll come

402
00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:29,240
Speaker 1: back on the other side. But the books put themselves

403
00:21:29,240 --> 00:21:31,600
Speaker 1: in a horrible position. They opened a line that was

404
00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:34,359
Speaker 1: bad that I think every Joe Schmoll in the world

405
00:21:34,359 --> 00:21:36,720
Speaker 1: tease the Chiefs, I mean chiefs the Bengals up the

406
00:21:36,760 --> 00:21:38,800
Speaker 1: seven and a half. Maybe they tease the four nineers

407
00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:41,240
Speaker 1: with him or the Eagles with him, and now they'll

408
00:21:41,280 --> 00:21:43,520
Speaker 1: do the other side with the Chiefs. They'll just tease

409
00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:44,960
Speaker 1: the Chiefs up this seven and a half eight and

410
00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:49,520
Speaker 1: a half now and do stuff like that. So, um,

411
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Speaker 1: I don't know what the book was thinking. Cheat, this

412
00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:54,960
Speaker 1: is an interesting line. So early bet me and Chat

413
00:21:54,960 --> 00:21:57,159
Speaker 1: would have been all over since in the under, I

414
00:21:57,200 --> 00:21:59,959
Speaker 1: still liked the under. UM still would take a position,

415
00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:01,960
Speaker 1: but obviously we wish it was still at forty seven.

416
00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:04,600
Speaker 1: That's such a key number six and a half right now.

417
00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:07,440
Speaker 1: I'm not ideal, um, but this is one of those

418
00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:10,879
Speaker 1: where we'll really have a pick for on Thursday. Like

419
00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:12,159
Speaker 1: right now, I mean, Chat, if you want to make

420
00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:14,000
Speaker 1: a bet with us, we're betting the under. Like already

421
00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:16,520
Speaker 1: on the under, I would only throw a little bit though.

422
00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:18,479
Speaker 1: I just hopes that maybe it does get back up

423
00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:20,520
Speaker 1: to forty seven. Maybe some report come out. My homes

424
00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:23,360
Speaker 1: looks unfazed in practice whatever bs they're being be thrown

425
00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:26,680
Speaker 1: out there all week. Um, the chiefs, media, Whoever's gonna

426
00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:28,959
Speaker 1: be doing stuff. So it's I don't want to come

427
00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:30,440
Speaker 1: in here and be like, oh we'll meet Chatter, he

428
00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:32,840
Speaker 1: got the best, Remember no bet this week. It's just

429
00:22:33,040 --> 00:22:36,040
Speaker 1: we'll never be that show. So to me, we'll have

430
00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:39,040
Speaker 1: more something official. But I think people already can tell

431
00:22:39,119 --> 00:22:41,880
Speaker 1: like we we want to take the Chiefs. We want

432
00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:44,320
Speaker 1: to take the Chiefs up plus three at home. We

433
00:22:44,400 --> 00:22:49,440
Speaker 1: want to have the public all over this since team, Um,

434
00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:52,159
Speaker 1: this is a good spot to being mahomes with no

435
00:22:52,200 --> 00:22:54,760
Speaker 1: one on them. That's a nice position to be in.

436
00:22:54,960 --> 00:22:58,480
Speaker 1: And if you look at the historical data, and I

437
00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:00,840
Speaker 1: know it's it's it's not a big example, but it's

438
00:23:00,880 --> 00:23:04,360
Speaker 1: just what the playoffs have been these last couple of years. Um,

439
00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:07,679
Speaker 1: it's just not I'm not saying it's not smart to

440
00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:10,720
Speaker 1: take the dog on the road in the playoffs, but

441
00:23:10,800 --> 00:23:14,399
Speaker 1: we've seen in these games it's three and it's so

442
00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:16,840
Speaker 1: if you're taking the favorite on the road, you're hitting

443
00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:21,639
Speaker 1: out clip in these playoffs. So, UM, I don't know.

444
00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:23,960
Speaker 1: It's like looking at this number now, I'm trying to

445
00:23:23,960 --> 00:23:25,600
Speaker 1: find us the best number chat. It keeps some moving

446
00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:27,639
Speaker 1: up and down. So that's what I'm saying. So the

447
00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:31,640
Speaker 1: last ten post seasons, it's a small sample, but it's

448
00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:34,639
Speaker 1: real the favorites have gone three, eight and two on

449
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:38,040
Speaker 1: the road. So we already have trends backing us to

450
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:39,920
Speaker 1: want to take my homes and we already knew we

451
00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:43,239
Speaker 1: kind of wanted to do it. So, um, it's one

452
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:45,159
Speaker 1: of those if you wont since I would grab it

453
00:23:45,200 --> 00:23:46,720
Speaker 1: now because I do think it will get to the three,

454
00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:50,080
Speaker 1: which is a key number. But I'm having a hard

455
00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:51,680
Speaker 1: time with this one this week, Chack, because we already

456
00:23:51,680 --> 00:23:55,240
Speaker 1: talked about Joe. Joe is a damn killer. Like the

457
00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:57,800
Speaker 1: way I feel about my homes, I feel about Burrow.

458
00:23:58,040 --> 00:24:00,600
Speaker 1: It's just even if my home has the lead, I'm

459
00:24:00,640 --> 00:24:03,080
Speaker 1: just never gonna feel comfortable, never gonna count out Burrow.

460
00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 1: So um, between the two matchups, obviously, this is the

461
00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:09,960
Speaker 1: best quarterback matchup Mahomes and Burrow. I mean, it's hard

462
00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:13,600
Speaker 1: to say Allan still number one or two when Burrow

463
00:24:13,680 --> 00:24:16,400
Speaker 1: just beat him in his own home park. But um,

464
00:24:16,560 --> 00:24:19,119
Speaker 1: Burrow is just he breaks sold the rules man, like

465
00:24:19,200 --> 00:24:21,600
Speaker 1: he's cost me a decent penny. Like we joked about

466
00:24:21,600 --> 00:24:23,199
Speaker 1: it in the action app we had bet them that

467
00:24:23,280 --> 00:24:26,680
Speaker 1: was our most winning team for both of us. Um,

468
00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:29,600
Speaker 1: I I'm slowly gonna start giving it back here because

469
00:24:30,320 --> 00:24:32,520
Speaker 1: I hate that. I hate that. I mean Fade and Joe.

470
00:24:32,600 --> 00:24:34,040
Speaker 1: So that's what I mean. Like, I'll probably be on

471
00:24:34,440 --> 00:24:36,200
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. But if you're asking what my biggest bet

472
00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:37,800
Speaker 1: in this game will most likely be, it's gonna be

473
00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:41,560
Speaker 1: the under with chat. Yeah, I do want to ask

474
00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:46,120
Speaker 1: you right now. The only book that's offering below two

475
00:24:47,160 --> 00:24:50,880
Speaker 1: Cincinnati minus one and a half, Kansas City plus one

476
00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:55,639
Speaker 1: and a half. Every other book as at two and

477
00:24:55,720 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 1: a half, So solictener to the show should terrify you.

478
00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:02,400
Speaker 1: Van Duel is the most public book. It's the biggest

479
00:25:02,400 --> 00:25:07,760
Speaker 1: book in America. So there they of all the books

480
00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:11,159
Speaker 1: we talked about getting slammed with Bangals money, they have

481
00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:14,840
Speaker 1: the biggest percentage bar none of every sports book. So

482
00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:17,760
Speaker 1: fuck man, that would actually terrify me if I was

483
00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:20,480
Speaker 1: on the Bengals side. That's really interesting. They are only

484
00:25:20,520 --> 00:25:22,480
Speaker 1: ones left under two, and we talk all the time

485
00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:25,199
Speaker 1: that is such a key number. So ship Chaff, we

486
00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:27,439
Speaker 1: we come into your Thursday and it's still at that

487
00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:29,680
Speaker 1: one and a half. Everyone that's listened to the show,

488
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:31,440
Speaker 1: that should be setting off alarms in your head because

489
00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:34,560
Speaker 1: that that is a funky, funky number. They're just the

490
00:25:34,600 --> 00:25:36,160
Speaker 1: fact they have hit two. To me, this number should

491
00:25:36,160 --> 00:25:38,399
Speaker 1: be two and every book at this point, So, um,

492
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:41,080
Speaker 1: that's interesting. Vandals still one and a half. Yep, one

493
00:25:41,119 --> 00:25:44,080
Speaker 1: and a half. It's moving though. It literally the juice

494
00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:47,320
Speaker 1: on it, it's just a second ago moved. It might

495
00:25:47,359 --> 00:25:50,800
Speaker 1: be because people are listening to the show. Yeah, which again,

496
00:25:50,800 --> 00:25:53,240
Speaker 1: if you want to grab SENSEI I mean, that's that's

497
00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:54,840
Speaker 1: that's the book you want to go to right now,

498
00:25:54,880 --> 00:25:57,560
Speaker 1: because that's that's why they're stolen here too. Yeah, it's

499
00:25:57,600 --> 00:26:01,000
Speaker 1: fascinating to me. Also, look, we were lucky enough to

500
00:26:01,080 --> 00:26:03,440
Speaker 1: bet the bang was plus three to bet the under

501
00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:06,159
Speaker 1: fifty one and a half. Like again, I got it

502
00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:07,960
Speaker 1: for such a penny. I'm not even account like my

503
00:26:07,960 --> 00:26:10,080
Speaker 1: my bigger bet what you talked about the under hit

504
00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:15,800
Speaker 1: a fifty seven still taking a forty six and a half. Well,

505
00:26:15,840 --> 00:26:19,480
Speaker 1: at some point, let's say I only bet it at

506
00:26:19,520 --> 00:26:21,400
Speaker 1: the fifty one and a half and I didn't bet

507
00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:24,919
Speaker 1: it at the like, I didn't even see it. Like

508
00:26:25,080 --> 00:26:27,520
Speaker 1: to me, I'm not looking at it the way you are.

509
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:31,360
Speaker 1: I'm like everybody else. I saw it at fifty one

510
00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:34,680
Speaker 1: and a half. I bet it, no joke. I think

511
00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:36,600
Speaker 1: by the time I got back into the Action Network app,

512
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:41,480
Speaker 1: it was an that's what that's what happened on the

513
00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:45,280
Speaker 1: Eagles line to it skipped all these other movements. So

514
00:26:45,359 --> 00:26:48,040
Speaker 1: at what point do we start to think, oh, maybe

515
00:26:48,080 --> 00:26:52,040
Speaker 1: we bet the over and we try to middle this thing. Um,

516
00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:54,560
Speaker 1: it all depends your betting style, Like, if you want

517
00:26:54,600 --> 00:26:57,520
Speaker 1: to do that, it's a really small amount. You could

518
00:26:57,520 --> 00:26:59,320
Speaker 1: do it, or we could do the rebel. The rebel

519
00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:01,320
Speaker 1: move is you just wait until you do it live,

520
00:27:01,359 --> 00:27:03,720
Speaker 1: and you do it way too much where Darren will better, like,

521
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:08,000
Speaker 1: cannot we cannot give credible betting advice on this show

522
00:27:08,480 --> 00:27:12,920
Speaker 1: by naming something after Dann Revel Christ. Oh my god,

523
00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:16,640
Speaker 1: it's just very Dann revel He like, well, will bet

524
00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:18,600
Speaker 1: a good number and then I'll see him ago live

525
00:27:18,720 --> 00:27:21,359
Speaker 1: and bet like ten ten overs live where it's like,

526
00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:24,120
Speaker 1: why don't you just keep your under you already one?

527
00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:27,200
Speaker 1: Now you're chasing these over so, I don't know, it's

528
00:27:27,280 --> 00:27:29,200
Speaker 1: it's tough to make a choice on those. You're trying

529
00:27:29,240 --> 00:27:32,399
Speaker 1: to hit these medals where the true middle play, I

530
00:27:32,400 --> 00:27:35,920
Speaker 1: mean obviously it's the easiest bet ever is if you're

531
00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:38,679
Speaker 1: like chatting and you've got since he plus three for

532
00:27:38,720 --> 00:27:41,119
Speaker 1: one unit, you throw a point to point two point

533
00:27:41,119 --> 00:27:44,639
Speaker 1: three units on uh the Chiefs once I get the

534
00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:49,040
Speaker 1: plus three I mean six middle. Yeah, that's insane. Now

535
00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:52,399
Speaker 1: when you're talking about totals, I don't want people to

536
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:54,280
Speaker 1: do it because I had people ask me about that

537
00:27:54,320 --> 00:27:58,359
Speaker 1: with that Chiefs and Jaguars game. They're like, well, already

538
00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:04,560
Speaker 1: got the under or so um the uh, what the

539
00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:07,240
Speaker 1: hell was it? Not? It might have been that Bucks game.

540
00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:09,919
Speaker 1: It was Bucks Cowboys, so I think the Bucks Cowboys opened,

541
00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:12,040
Speaker 1: it might have been forty seven. It went all the

542
00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:15,040
Speaker 1: way down to forty four and a half. Um. People

543
00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:16,640
Speaker 1: are asking if they should play that in middle line said,

544
00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:18,119
Speaker 1: I just wouldn't do it because the books are so

545
00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:20,120
Speaker 1: sharp at this time of the year. They know exactly

546
00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:21,600
Speaker 1: what they're doing. When they hold a position on the

547
00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:24,560
Speaker 1: line usually means it's sharp money coming on the other side.

548
00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:28,119
Speaker 1: I'm almost positive that Bucks Cowboys game landed on that number,

549
00:28:28,200 --> 00:28:33,880
Speaker 1: like landed. Well, we know it landed at with Matt

550
00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:36,040
Speaker 1: Mitchell who had the under forty five and a half

551
00:28:36,640 --> 00:28:42,400
Speaker 1: and nearly lost his mind. So that's why I don't

552
00:28:42,400 --> 00:28:44,120
Speaker 1: want to be telling people to screw around with those

553
00:28:44,160 --> 00:28:47,640
Speaker 1: because the books are so smart. But they've clearly made

554
00:28:47,640 --> 00:28:50,040
Speaker 1: a mistake here with this since the number. So yes,

555
00:28:50,120 --> 00:28:53,080
Speaker 1: if you've got the plus three, you almost have to

556
00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:55,480
Speaker 1: play a little small amountain the Chief side once it

557
00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:57,720
Speaker 1: comes back to their way. It's just too much value

558
00:28:57,720 --> 00:29:00,520
Speaker 1: not to in a game that e's a have a blowout.

559
00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:02,600
Speaker 1: And we've seen these playoffs compared to last year, we've

560
00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:04,160
Speaker 1: had a bunch of blowouts this year. We didn't really

561
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:06,040
Speaker 1: have that last year. That's kind of the way it

562
00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:09,000
Speaker 1: is in the playoffs. Like these teams are so good,

563
00:29:09,280 --> 00:29:11,360
Speaker 1: like we saw since once they get wrong or like

564
00:29:11,440 --> 00:29:14,080
Speaker 1: the Eagles last week, you can't really stop it. It's

565
00:29:14,120 --> 00:29:15,880
Speaker 1: just they're these teams are too good to let these

566
00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:19,360
Speaker 1: teams back in. So um, to me, I'd go very small.

567
00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:20,920
Speaker 1: I'm playing to play in the middle here. If you've

568
00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:23,440
Speaker 1: got the best of a number, I would just enjoy it.

569
00:29:23,480 --> 00:29:26,360
Speaker 1: Like unless you're a big, big, better, what are you chasing,

570
00:29:26,480 --> 00:29:28,480
Speaker 1: Like you already got a great number. Just sit back

571
00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:33,840
Speaker 1: and enjoy the game, especially if you have futures. Um,

572
00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:36,880
Speaker 1: I do wonder. So we're talking about this game to

573
00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:40,000
Speaker 1: two and a half in a lot of places, hoping it.

574
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:42,160
Speaker 1: Guess the three if we do want to play the middle,

575
00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:47,840
Speaker 1: be a six point you know, difference there. Tomorrow is

576
00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:50,640
Speaker 1: such a key day. It's Tuesday. And by the way, reminder,

577
00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:54,560
Speaker 1: you want to get this podcast at five thirty in

578
00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:57,480
Speaker 1: the afternoon instead of eleven thirty it comes out in

579
00:29:57,520 --> 00:30:01,280
Speaker 1: the vault in the volume feed. The herd fee comes

580
00:30:01,280 --> 00:30:03,440
Speaker 1: out on the Favorite feed if you subscribe to the

581
00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:07,800
Speaker 1: Favorites five thirty in the afternoon. Subscribe directly to the Favorites.

582
00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:15,800
Speaker 1: Um is Mahomes will practice tomorrow or he won't. That

583
00:30:15,840 --> 00:30:17,840
Speaker 1: will have a massive impact. I think on the line.

584
00:30:19,160 --> 00:30:22,920
Speaker 1: Give you my Simon guarantee Mahomes doesn't play this week,

585
00:30:23,520 --> 00:30:26,160
Speaker 1: I will retire. I will have a new host for

586
00:30:26,320 --> 00:30:29,560
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. Uh, that's my guarantee. I don't know.

587
00:30:29,640 --> 00:30:31,160
Speaker 1: I just can't see it happening. I mean, people are

588
00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:34,120
Speaker 1: asking about Henny what I would make this number so

589
00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:36,080
Speaker 1: fucking hard because I know the public is gonna drive

590
00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:37,920
Speaker 1: it up. So it's like, all right, say I do

591
00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:40,360
Speaker 1: make a four and a half five, it's gonna be

592
00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:42,440
Speaker 1: seven just because the public's gonna bed it up to

593
00:30:42,440 --> 00:30:45,440
Speaker 1: that number. I mean, they're gonna over react so hard

594
00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:48,440
Speaker 1: if it is Henny, especially the way the way the

595
00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:51,560
Speaker 1: numbers moved now, I cannot see it another I can't

596
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:53,640
Speaker 1: see it not moving another four points at this point

597
00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:58,320
Speaker 1: if it is Henny. So um, I'll never understand the

598
00:30:58,360 --> 00:31:00,360
Speaker 1: movement of this line. But it makes more sense in

599
00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:02,240
Speaker 1: the sense of the pros are aligned with the public,

600
00:31:02,280 --> 00:31:05,440
Speaker 1: and they like the Bengals. They like them in this spot.

601
00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:07,320
Speaker 1: They think this is a good matchup for them, especially

602
00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:10,520
Speaker 1: when you have a hobbled my home. So, dude, I agree,

603
00:31:10,680 --> 00:31:16,480
Speaker 1: I think mahomes play. I'm just saying tomorrow, if he practices,

604
00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:18,920
Speaker 1: doesn't practice, how he looks is going to have an

605
00:31:18,960 --> 00:31:22,680
Speaker 1: impact on the line. If you're looking to play the middle,

606
00:31:22,880 --> 00:31:24,720
Speaker 1: if you're looking to get the best of the number,

607
00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:26,640
Speaker 1: if you worry that it's going to get to three

608
00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:29,520
Speaker 1: or not get to three tomorrow, if you practice it,

609
00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 1: mic go back down to two, right If he doesn't practice,

610
00:31:32,120 --> 00:31:34,840
Speaker 1: it could go up to three. So that's all I'm saying.

611
00:31:34,840 --> 00:31:38,320
Speaker 1: I'm probably gonna wait. I'm gonna be patient. I'm gonna wait,

612
00:31:38,600 --> 00:31:40,320
Speaker 1: and like, either I'm going to get it at three

613
00:31:40,440 --> 00:31:42,560
Speaker 1: and play the full middle, or I'm not gonna do

614
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:44,920
Speaker 1: it at all. I'm not gonna feel aunty about playing

615
00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:48,080
Speaker 1: two and a half to get a middle. Yeah, and again,

616
00:31:48,160 --> 00:31:50,480
Speaker 1: that's that's probably right. Like we probably will see movement

617
00:31:50,520 --> 00:31:53,480
Speaker 1: just because of the public's view of my homes right now,

618
00:31:53,560 --> 00:31:56,240
Speaker 1: But I don't know. Chad just feels like it's only

619
00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:59,160
Speaker 1: going to be pros on the Chiefs. I mean, the

620
00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:02,360
Speaker 1: Bengals were so dominant against that Bill's team and the

621
00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:05,480
Speaker 1: Bills were the darling. I mean we saw, yeah, we

622
00:32:05,480 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 1: we like the Bills, but you saw some people loved

623
00:32:08,040 --> 00:32:12,840
Speaker 1: the Bills. That line steamed up last week. So those

624
00:32:12,840 --> 00:32:15,200
Speaker 1: people are guaranteed to be being on the Bengals. And

625
00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:18,400
Speaker 1: now you're taking in all the unknown. People do not

626
00:32:18,520 --> 00:32:20,680
Speaker 1: like betting the unknown, and that's what the Chiefs really

627
00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:23,640
Speaker 1: are right now. So, um, the scary part to me

628
00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:25,240
Speaker 1: is someone that wants to back the Chiefs is there's

629
00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:28,920
Speaker 1: zero resistance, like no pro money has come in there.

630
00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:31,280
Speaker 1: They've really let this number cross a bunch of key numbers.

631
00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:33,520
Speaker 1: Two and a half is a key number. So, um,

632
00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:35,840
Speaker 1: Chad could be right, could see this number drop if

633
00:32:35,880 --> 00:32:38,000
Speaker 1: my homes does show up and he's running and looking

634
00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:40,840
Speaker 1: good in practice. But it's also one of those where

635
00:32:40,840 --> 00:32:42,560
Speaker 1: it's like, I don't think me, You're gonna be shocked

636
00:32:42,560 --> 00:32:44,720
Speaker 1: it off becoming your Thursday this number three, It just

637
00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:49,880
Speaker 1: it just feels like that's where it's said at this point. Um, alright,

638
00:32:49,960 --> 00:32:53,280
Speaker 1: so if you can get the one and a half

639
00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:56,800
Speaker 1: on the Bengals right now, you take it if you're

640
00:32:56,840 --> 00:32:59,560
Speaker 1: feeling antsy. Wait see if you can get the Chiefs

641
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:02,920
Speaker 1: that plus three later in the week. Uh, still take

642
00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:05,880
Speaker 1: the under at forty six and a half. I'm feeling

643
00:33:05,920 --> 00:33:09,840
Speaker 1: less convinced about that, I think than you are. Um, well,

644
00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:11,880
Speaker 1: does it make you feel better? Knowing and Joe Brow's

645
00:33:12,000 --> 00:33:14,800
Speaker 1: entire career and the playoffs, she's never scored more than

646
00:33:14,800 --> 00:33:19,520
Speaker 1: twenty eight points. The defense that's really been this this

647
00:33:19,840 --> 00:33:22,520
Speaker 1: unit that's really shown them these last two years. And

648
00:33:22,840 --> 00:33:27,280
Speaker 1: by the way, the Bengals defense gave up the sixth

649
00:33:27,400 --> 00:33:31,040
Speaker 1: fewest points per play in the NFL this year. The

650
00:33:31,040 --> 00:33:35,600
Speaker 1: Bengals defense was top five in red zone touchdown percentage

651
00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:39,080
Speaker 1: this year. We've said it many times in this podcast.

652
00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:42,160
Speaker 1: When we started riding the Bengals, it wasn't because of

653
00:33:42,240 --> 00:33:45,640
Speaker 1: Joe Burrow. It's because DJ Reader came back and he

654
00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:47,920
Speaker 1: has been dominant in every game that he's played. So

655
00:33:48,840 --> 00:33:50,760
Speaker 1: did particularly Belly there a little bit makes you feel

656
00:33:50,760 --> 00:33:54,440
Speaker 1: a little better. Yeah, that's true, that's true. That's true.

657
00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:57,880
Speaker 1: If you've been watching the NFL playoff from the sidelines,

658
00:33:58,000 --> 00:34:00,080
Speaker 1: there's still time to get in the game. With and

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689
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Speaker 1: dot net in West Virginia. All right, onto the Eagles

690
00:35:52,320 --> 00:35:57,640
Speaker 1: in the forty niners, um game opened about pick, but

691
00:35:57,719 --> 00:36:00,680
Speaker 1: that was available for maybe less than ten seconds. We

692
00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:02,520
Speaker 1: settled to two. Now it's a two and a half

693
00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:06,279
Speaker 1: totals at forty five and a half. Although started taking

694
00:36:06,360 --> 00:36:10,959
Speaker 1: up today. I bet Eagles minus two. I bet over

695
00:36:11,080 --> 00:36:15,680
Speaker 1: forty five and a half. Give me your take, I

696
00:36:15,719 --> 00:36:20,680
Speaker 1: will respond, Oh, Chad, what do I do here? It's

697
00:36:20,680 --> 00:36:24,239
Speaker 1: just so many ways to go? Um do I want

698
00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:28,000
Speaker 1: to be the obnoxious asshole Eagles fans. I've been treating

699
00:36:28,000 --> 00:36:30,560
Speaker 1: who you are who you are. I've been trying so

700
00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:32,600
Speaker 1: hard not to be though all season because I know

701
00:36:32,640 --> 00:36:35,400
Speaker 1: people already hate us as a fan base. We're the

702
00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:39,480
Speaker 1: worst I know we are. Um, Yeah, did it feel

703
00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:42,560
Speaker 1: good beating this ship out of a divisional opponent? Yeah, Chad.

704
00:36:42,640 --> 00:36:44,920
Speaker 1: Don't get much better than beating the ship out of

705
00:36:44,920 --> 00:36:47,520
Speaker 1: the Giants at home, especially where I live in the

706
00:36:47,560 --> 00:36:52,120
Speaker 1: Tri State area. Family members, good friends, they're all Giants fans.

707
00:36:52,320 --> 00:36:55,359
Speaker 1: And I heard all week that Daniel Jones had more

708
00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:59,280
Speaker 1: playoff wins than Jalen Hurts. So thank god they're tied

709
00:36:59,320 --> 00:37:02,120
Speaker 1: now for play off winds because I don't know if

710
00:37:02,120 --> 00:37:03,560
Speaker 1: I would have made at this off season chats and

711
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:05,879
Speaker 1: Eagles fan have been a long off stas Eagles lost

712
00:37:05,880 --> 00:37:10,200
Speaker 1: at home to the Giants. So um, looking at this matchup.

713
00:37:11,600 --> 00:37:16,279
Speaker 1: It's not that it's bizarre that pros are coming in

714
00:37:16,360 --> 00:37:18,080
Speaker 1: on the fourty nine Ears, but I felt like they

715
00:37:18,120 --> 00:37:20,120
Speaker 1: could have just waited, Like if they just would have

716
00:37:20,160 --> 00:37:22,200
Speaker 1: just waited a little longer, we saw a couple of

717
00:37:22,200 --> 00:37:24,960
Speaker 1: books touched the three we would have got three and

718
00:37:25,000 --> 00:37:26,440
Speaker 1: three and a halfs in the fourty nine and mean

719
00:37:26,480 --> 00:37:28,319
Speaker 1: you would be living in heaven because most people, like

720
00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:29,960
Speaker 1: you just said, most people got the egos and either

721
00:37:30,000 --> 00:37:33,160
Speaker 1: a pick or their money online really early and then

722
00:37:33,160 --> 00:37:35,840
Speaker 1: get into a three and this matchup would have been epic,

723
00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:39,520
Speaker 1: Like this number should be three. I make it three,

724
00:37:39,880 --> 00:37:43,240
Speaker 1: and I might be overrating party now at this point,

725
00:37:43,320 --> 00:37:48,000
Speaker 1: like I might have over adjusted, um where I might

726
00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:50,560
Speaker 1: be biting looking like an idiot come next week, where

727
00:37:50,600 --> 00:37:52,600
Speaker 1: I should have just went all in on the Eagles. H.

728
00:37:53,440 --> 00:37:55,279
Speaker 1: I don't know. There's something about this kid man, Like

729
00:37:55,280 --> 00:37:57,960
Speaker 1: I always talk all the time, not that humans have superpowers.

730
00:37:58,200 --> 00:38:01,160
Speaker 1: We do have on its playnable things. And there's some

731
00:38:01,200 --> 00:38:05,040
Speaker 1: people that are just lucky and fucking Brock pretty is lucky, dude.

732
00:38:05,120 --> 00:38:08,719
Speaker 1: Like watching that game as a Cowboys backer, how many

733
00:38:08,800 --> 00:38:10,880
Speaker 1: times are Cowboys guys gonna hitting the chest or have

734
00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:12,560
Speaker 1: a ball fall on their lap and they don't catch it?

735
00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:16,600
Speaker 1: So um, this kid has been extremely lucky. But the

736
00:38:16,600 --> 00:38:19,000
Speaker 1: biggest the biggest thing to me in this matchup is

737
00:38:20,719 --> 00:38:22,879
Speaker 1: this this rookie is now going on the road. I've

738
00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:26,440
Speaker 1: seen him only play two road games. One was against

739
00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:30,600
Speaker 1: Arizona and their backup and the other was against the

740
00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:33,680
Speaker 1: Raiders and their backup and surprisingly both those teams actually

741
00:38:33,719 --> 00:38:37,680
Speaker 1: played played well against his four Niners team. And we're

742
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:39,520
Speaker 1: not gonna talk a nasm about it, but I'm definitely

743
00:38:39,520 --> 00:38:41,200
Speaker 1: gonna bring up a lot of trends that favored of

744
00:38:41,200 --> 00:38:44,520
Speaker 1: the Eagles. The biggest one is at rookie in the

745
00:38:44,600 --> 00:38:46,560
Speaker 1: in the championship game. Chat. Have you heard any of

746
00:38:46,600 --> 00:38:49,680
Speaker 1: these stats about these rookies in this championship game? Okay,

747
00:38:49,800 --> 00:38:52,839
Speaker 1: so we've had four since This is from my good

748
00:38:52,840 --> 00:38:55,640
Speaker 1: friend Evan Abrahams. So they are one in three a

749
00:38:55,800 --> 00:39:00,000
Speaker 1: t s open four straight up. In two thousand nine,

750
00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:03,760
Speaker 1: we had Mark Sanchez, lovely, lovely Mark Sanchez. He actually

751
00:39:03,760 --> 00:39:05,920
Speaker 1: had the best game of all these rookies. He had

752
00:39:05,920 --> 00:39:08,960
Speaker 1: two touchdowns, one interception. They were plus seven and a

753
00:39:09,000 --> 00:39:13,319
Speaker 1: half the Jets. They lost thirty to seventeen. Next up,

754
00:39:13,440 --> 00:39:16,480
Speaker 1: Joe Flacco in two thousand and eight. He had zero touchdowns,

755
00:39:16,640 --> 00:39:20,239
Speaker 1: three interceptions. He was plus six. They lost twenty four.

756
00:39:20,320 --> 00:39:24,479
Speaker 1: Two thousand four, Ben Roethlisberger, he actually had a pretty

757
00:39:24,480 --> 00:39:27,560
Speaker 1: good game, two touchdowns, three interceptions. They were plus three.

758
00:39:27,719 --> 00:39:31,520
Speaker 1: Pretty close right now they lost forty one seven and

759
00:39:32,000 --> 00:39:35,719
Speaker 1: Shaun king are alone cover Shaun King. He covered check

760
00:39:35,719 --> 00:39:39,719
Speaker 1: because he was plus fourteen. He had zero touchdowns, two receptions,

761
00:39:40,080 --> 00:39:43,040
Speaker 1: his team won eleven to six. So what you're taking

762
00:39:43,040 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 1: away from yes, yes, yes, sorry, lost eleven and six,

763
00:39:47,120 --> 00:39:49,799
Speaker 1: but covered the four team. So if you just go

764
00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:52,759
Speaker 1: through those numbers, there's a reason brock Pretty looked like

765
00:39:52,760 --> 00:39:56,719
Speaker 1: ship last week. Right, the competition steps up and he's

766
00:39:56,719 --> 00:40:01,040
Speaker 1: a rook So look looking at this as is shaping out.

767
00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:03,360
Speaker 1: I'm sorry. Yes, brock Pretty did win in Seattle on

768
00:40:03,360 --> 00:40:04,960
Speaker 1: that Thursday night game. I almost have missed that one

769
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:09,400
Speaker 1: was looking through um just looking through it. It's if

770
00:40:09,440 --> 00:40:11,719
Speaker 1: you're backing them. If you are going to back the

771
00:40:11,760 --> 00:40:13,719
Speaker 1: Four Nights, are you sure as hell better be on

772
00:40:13,800 --> 00:40:16,600
Speaker 1: this under because that's your only chance, your only chance.

773
00:40:16,600 --> 00:40:19,000
Speaker 1: What do you reading these numbers out? Is all four

774
00:40:19,000 --> 00:40:22,040
Speaker 1: of these quarterbacks had really good defenses. That's exactly what

775
00:40:22,120 --> 00:40:26,359
Speaker 1: got those young quarterbacks to the championship game. I I

776
00:40:26,400 --> 00:40:28,400
Speaker 1: hate this matchup for the Four Nights. I get what

777
00:40:28,440 --> 00:40:30,600
Speaker 1: they're I get what they're saying is like, okay, we

778
00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:33,719
Speaker 1: can stop to run all these other things and all

779
00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:36,440
Speaker 1: the hate egos haven't played anyone. Even though the NFC

780
00:40:36,480 --> 00:40:39,120
Speaker 1: East had the most wins I believe ever in football

781
00:40:39,160 --> 00:40:42,879
Speaker 1: for a division. But yeah, he goos, I haven't played anyone. Uh.

782
00:40:43,080 --> 00:40:46,040
Speaker 1: It's one of these things where I get the love

783
00:40:46,120 --> 00:40:48,319
Speaker 1: for the pros on his four Knights team. He's been

784
00:40:48,400 --> 00:40:50,960
Speaker 1: very profitable with them back in Pretty They're cashing big

785
00:40:51,040 --> 00:40:53,759
Speaker 1: checks off of it. It's just like the Joe Burrow thing.

786
00:40:53,800 --> 00:40:56,200
Speaker 1: Like a lot of these pros been back in Burrow

787
00:40:56,239 --> 00:40:58,200
Speaker 1: all season. They've been making good money off it. It's

788
00:40:58,200 --> 00:41:01,080
Speaker 1: the same thing here. Of I get it, I get

789
00:41:01,160 --> 00:41:04,440
Speaker 1: the pretty love. It's way too much, way too much

790
00:41:04,480 --> 00:41:06,959
Speaker 1: love at this point. Like this kid has been incredibly lucky.

791
00:41:07,000 --> 00:41:10,440
Speaker 1: Now the big Pauses they played terrible and they still

792
00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:14,799
Speaker 1: dominated Doc and that defense, that offense last week. But

793
00:41:14,840 --> 00:41:17,560
Speaker 1: it's like we talked about it, like without Pollard was

794
00:41:17,600 --> 00:41:19,040
Speaker 1: still in that game, it wouldn't have been as terrible

795
00:41:19,080 --> 00:41:21,560
Speaker 1: for that Cowboys offense. Like once they they turned to Zeke,

796
00:41:22,280 --> 00:41:23,920
Speaker 1: the run game was gone and there's no one your

797
00:41:23,960 --> 00:41:26,120
Speaker 1: fear catching the ball in the backfield. That's how you

798
00:41:26,160 --> 00:41:27,920
Speaker 1: attacked its four in ers team already talking about That's

799
00:41:27,920 --> 00:41:30,239
Speaker 1: how the Chiefs dominated this team and put up over

800
00:41:30,280 --> 00:41:32,920
Speaker 1: forty points against this fourg in hours team. So my

801
00:41:33,080 --> 00:41:35,960
Speaker 1: early bet, I love the over and I love the Eagles.

802
00:41:36,160 --> 00:41:38,239
Speaker 1: I still like the Eagles, and it's one of those

803
00:41:38,239 --> 00:41:40,160
Speaker 1: where I'm I'm not gonna go so hard time people

804
00:41:40,160 --> 00:41:42,360
Speaker 1: to take it here. Some open pros come in and

805
00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:44,680
Speaker 1: bet this back down to two. Like again, two and

806
00:41:44,719 --> 00:41:46,319
Speaker 1: a half is a key number. You'll be shocked, but

807
00:41:46,320 --> 00:41:49,080
Speaker 1: it really is. So I have no doubt I love

808
00:41:49,120 --> 00:41:51,759
Speaker 1: the Eagles here. Um, it's gonna be a surprise of

809
00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:53,200
Speaker 1: no one. I'm probably gonna be all over them for

810
00:41:53,239 --> 00:41:56,520
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl as well, just because there's no there's

811
00:41:56,520 --> 00:41:59,080
Speaker 1: no defenses like our defense in the a f C

812
00:41:59,400 --> 00:42:03,520
Speaker 1: other than Baltimore. Baltimore is basically the best D line

813
00:42:03,600 --> 00:42:05,400
Speaker 1: I could think of in the FC, comparable to the

814
00:42:05,440 --> 00:42:08,200
Speaker 1: Eagles D line, which, if you didn't know, they set

815
00:42:08,200 --> 00:42:10,520
Speaker 1: the all time record for first defense that four guys

816
00:42:10,520 --> 00:42:13,520
Speaker 1: have over ten sex. So, um, if you can get

817
00:42:13,520 --> 00:42:15,279
Speaker 1: a futures on the Eagles line, if you can get

818
00:42:15,280 --> 00:42:17,520
Speaker 1: that three, three and a half right now for them

819
00:42:17,520 --> 00:42:20,480
Speaker 1: against any a f C team, take that line. I

820
00:42:20,520 --> 00:42:23,200
Speaker 1: still I think the Egos are gonna be undervalued head

821
00:42:23,239 --> 00:42:25,440
Speaker 1: into the Super Bowl. That the love is right now

822
00:42:25,480 --> 00:42:27,319
Speaker 1: for Joe Burrow and if my homes can pull up

823
00:42:27,320 --> 00:42:31,120
Speaker 1: that offset upset, that's where everyone's gonna betting. So this

824
00:42:31,200 --> 00:42:34,239
Speaker 1: Egles team will just be undervalid. But the shocking part

825
00:42:34,400 --> 00:42:37,560
Speaker 1: is that this isn't staying at three. So that's my

826
00:42:37,600 --> 00:42:40,600
Speaker 1: big police chad where I might be too close to it.

827
00:42:40,640 --> 00:42:43,319
Speaker 1: I might be discrediting party too much here, but I've

828
00:42:43,360 --> 00:42:45,480
Speaker 1: just seen it time and time again. History repeats itself.

829
00:42:45,560 --> 00:42:49,080
Speaker 1: A rookie going through a championship game. It's too big,

830
00:42:49,200 --> 00:42:51,000
Speaker 1: and now you're putting this kid in Philly, one of

831
00:42:51,000 --> 00:42:54,880
Speaker 1: the most hostile environments and football man, I just I

832
00:42:54,920 --> 00:42:57,200
Speaker 1: just don't see it working out for them. So um,

833
00:42:57,440 --> 00:42:59,240
Speaker 1: it's one of those where the line makes me nervous

834
00:42:59,239 --> 00:43:01,319
Speaker 1: because it's so ten that two and a half it

835
00:43:01,320 --> 00:43:03,400
Speaker 1: feels like too much of a gift. But we already

836
00:43:03,400 --> 00:43:05,480
Speaker 1: talked about all the time. Two is such a key number.

837
00:43:06,040 --> 00:43:08,040
Speaker 1: I will not be shocked to somehow this game lands

838
00:43:08,080 --> 00:43:12,759
Speaker 1: on the two. I can't think of a stadium on

839
00:43:12,840 --> 00:43:19,040
Speaker 1: the West Coast. I guess Seattle at its best. Where

840
00:43:20,920 --> 00:43:23,560
Speaker 1: As a fan, I would be worried about the environment

841
00:43:23,560 --> 00:43:26,000
Speaker 1: in the same way I would be worried about playing

842
00:43:26,040 --> 00:43:29,279
Speaker 1: in Philly or playing in Chicago, the old the old

843
00:43:29,360 --> 00:43:32,520
Speaker 1: Raiders Stadium with the baseball field and playing in Oakland,

844
00:43:32,680 --> 00:43:36,560
Speaker 1: that that would happen have been something. You know. We

845
00:43:36,640 --> 00:43:39,480
Speaker 1: talked about this on Green Dot Daily this morning. You

846
00:43:39,520 --> 00:43:42,200
Speaker 1: said your favorite you love the over in this game,

847
00:43:42,960 --> 00:43:45,440
Speaker 1: and I did too, and I couldn't put my figure

848
00:43:45,480 --> 00:43:47,040
Speaker 1: on it. It was just one of those things where

849
00:43:47,080 --> 00:43:50,520
Speaker 1: I looked at the number it felt really low. Eagles

850
00:43:50,520 --> 00:43:56,319
Speaker 1: are an incredible offense. The the trend is to play

851
00:43:56,320 --> 00:44:00,200
Speaker 1: the under, and I could not figure out why why

852
00:44:00,239 --> 00:44:02,959
Speaker 1: do I like this over? I need like break it down?

853
00:44:03,000 --> 00:44:04,640
Speaker 1: Why do I like this over? You just told me

854
00:44:04,680 --> 00:44:08,080
Speaker 1: a lot about the Niners and pretty like, why is

855
00:44:08,120 --> 00:44:09,920
Speaker 1: it over? The play here? Yeah? Why do I like

856
00:44:09,960 --> 00:44:11,920
Speaker 1: it so much? Two different reasons, But the biggest one

857
00:44:11,920 --> 00:44:15,319
Speaker 1: would just be I think both defenses right now are

858
00:44:16,080 --> 00:44:19,839
Speaker 1: not peek overrated. But it doesn't get more higher than

859
00:44:19,840 --> 00:44:22,840
Speaker 1: this where people are just terrified. Now this Eagle's defense

860
00:44:22,880 --> 00:44:25,239
Speaker 1: are like, well, pretty, he's gonna have no time. He's

861
00:44:25,239 --> 00:44:27,759
Speaker 1: gonna be getting dumped the whole time, where it's like

862
00:44:27,800 --> 00:44:29,800
Speaker 1: this is what Shane Hanna lives for, like him scheming

863
00:44:29,880 --> 00:44:33,040
Speaker 1: up against his Eagles defense. He's gonna find our weaknesses,

864
00:44:33,040 --> 00:44:34,839
Speaker 1: and I promise you if I can spot a couple

865
00:44:34,840 --> 00:44:37,400
Speaker 1: of weaknesses, he can spot them way better than me.

866
00:44:37,600 --> 00:44:40,400
Speaker 1: So to me, the Eagles do have weaknesses on defenses

867
00:44:40,440 --> 00:44:43,680
Speaker 1: that the Giants could not exploit. Pot Nani's offense can.

868
00:44:43,840 --> 00:44:46,400
Speaker 1: Like they have one of the best tight ends of football.

869
00:44:46,600 --> 00:44:49,040
Speaker 1: That's something Eagles struggle against his big, strong tight ends.

870
00:44:49,400 --> 00:44:52,239
Speaker 1: Our linebackers are smaller like that. If each throws it

871
00:44:52,320 --> 00:44:54,759
Speaker 1: up in the air the kittle, that's gonna be a

872
00:44:54,800 --> 00:44:57,120
Speaker 1: free first down every play for them. Another thing we

873
00:44:57,160 --> 00:44:59,400
Speaker 1: struggle struggle with his running backs catching a lot of

874
00:44:59,440 --> 00:45:02,399
Speaker 1: the backfield. Not only did they have McCaffrey. If he's

875
00:45:02,400 --> 00:45:04,600
Speaker 1: banged up, I really don't think that's a big deal

876
00:45:04,640 --> 00:45:07,279
Speaker 1: to them because they had Debo. Like debo, he's like

877
00:45:07,320 --> 00:45:09,600
Speaker 1: the sports card they've just had in the garage all season,

878
00:45:09,760 --> 00:45:11,640
Speaker 1: Like they don't they've never needed to really take it

879
00:45:11,680 --> 00:45:14,320
Speaker 1: out because it's like we got McCaffrey, we need a

880
00:45:14,400 --> 00:45:16,600
Speaker 1: running back to do something, and then we got Youke

881
00:45:16,760 --> 00:45:19,200
Speaker 1: on the outside. Now they make our wide receiver play.

882
00:45:19,320 --> 00:45:22,960
Speaker 1: So to me, the over is to play mainly though, Chad,

883
00:45:23,000 --> 00:45:26,480
Speaker 1: because of the value, Like this number should be forty

884
00:45:26,560 --> 00:45:28,960
Speaker 1: seven it's forty five and a half. Like the public,

885
00:45:30,200 --> 00:45:31,960
Speaker 1: I'm looking at the action app right now, they're all

886
00:45:32,000 --> 00:45:36,719
Speaker 1: over this under any guess what the books just moved

887
00:45:36,719 --> 00:45:39,839
Speaker 1: to the forty six. Brother, So I think the pros

888
00:45:39,840 --> 00:45:43,000
Speaker 1: are in line with us in Yes, these defenses are good,

889
00:45:43,719 --> 00:45:47,200
Speaker 1: incredibly beatable. It's schemed upright. Both defensive have major holes.

890
00:45:47,960 --> 00:45:50,600
Speaker 1: I know for effects, Sanna can copy exactly the West

891
00:45:50,600 --> 00:45:53,520
Speaker 1: Coast system that McDaniel rant with the Raiders, and we

892
00:45:53,560 --> 00:45:55,840
Speaker 1: saw how dominant the Raiders were able to move the

893
00:45:55,840 --> 00:45:59,960
Speaker 1: ball against this fors defense. Same thing with Andy Reid's offense.

894
00:46:00,040 --> 00:46:03,000
Speaker 1: It's literally spread it out. West Coast System Eagles run

895
00:46:03,080 --> 00:46:05,319
Speaker 1: the exact same thing. That's why if you noticed our

896
00:46:05,360 --> 00:46:07,000
Speaker 1: tight ends get involved a lot, it's the same thing

897
00:46:07,000 --> 00:46:10,160
Speaker 1: as Kelseys get involved in the Kansas City system. It's

898
00:46:10,200 --> 00:46:13,120
Speaker 1: one of those offenses that's really based around you spread

899
00:46:13,200 --> 00:46:15,120
Speaker 1: everything out, and that's what we're gonna do against this

900
00:46:15,120 --> 00:46:19,400
Speaker 1: foreignis team where arguably the best defensive player in football,

901
00:46:19,719 --> 00:46:21,960
Speaker 1: well two defensive players. I guess you could say Nick

902
00:46:22,000 --> 00:46:26,000
Speaker 1: Boses obviously, but Fred Warner to me is he's everything

903
00:46:26,040 --> 00:46:30,000
Speaker 1: I love like. He is so incredibly smart, hits so hard,

904
00:46:30,120 --> 00:46:32,000
Speaker 1: and can play coverage like that play he had in

905
00:46:32,040 --> 00:46:34,600
Speaker 1: that game running down the middle get in front of

906
00:46:34,600 --> 00:46:37,960
Speaker 1: Ceedee Lamb was just fucking crazy. Dude. There's like two

907
00:46:37,960 --> 00:46:40,399
Speaker 1: linebackers and football probably can keep up with a guy

908
00:46:40,400 --> 00:46:43,840
Speaker 1: like Ceedee Lamber in the four three. So um, I

909
00:46:43,920 --> 00:46:46,160
Speaker 1: just have so much respect for this Foreignis team. It's

910
00:46:46,200 --> 00:46:48,480
Speaker 1: tough to pick him like pick and talk shit about him,

911
00:46:48,520 --> 00:46:51,480
Speaker 1: but I gotta do it. And that's the that's the

912
00:46:51,520 --> 00:46:54,839
Speaker 1: defensive weakness. Like you spread them out, teams can beat them.

913
00:46:54,880 --> 00:46:57,520
Speaker 1: They have not played in offense like the Eagles. Eagles

914
00:46:57,560 --> 00:47:01,399
Speaker 1: are I don't want to say historically the best run

915
00:47:01,440 --> 00:47:03,359
Speaker 1: team ever, but you can look at the data. There's

916
00:47:03,400 --> 00:47:05,560
Speaker 1: no there's no teams in history that have had more

917
00:47:05,640 --> 00:47:08,759
Speaker 1: hundred fifty yard rushing games a hundred fifty yards before

918
00:47:08,760 --> 00:47:11,759
Speaker 1: contact rushing games than the Eagles in NFL history. Like

919
00:47:12,840 --> 00:47:16,080
Speaker 1: Kelsey all Pro we all know is Hall of Famer

920
00:47:16,200 --> 00:47:19,000
Speaker 1: Lane Johnson didn't give up a single pressure last game

921
00:47:19,040 --> 00:47:22,879
Speaker 1: with a torn row Like It's just it's crazy how

922
00:47:22,880 --> 00:47:25,920
Speaker 1: good this offensive line is. So we talked about last week,

923
00:47:26,000 --> 00:47:28,080
Speaker 1: Nick bos is incredible. Did you see his name pop

924
00:47:28,200 --> 00:47:30,359
Speaker 1: up much in that Cowboys game Chad because you can

925
00:47:30,400 --> 00:47:33,520
Speaker 1: scheme it, So I get the love for it. But

926
00:47:33,560 --> 00:47:35,439
Speaker 1: that's the difference to me is the Eagles have four

927
00:47:35,520 --> 00:47:37,960
Speaker 1: Nick bost not for Nick posts before, guys that can

928
00:47:37,960 --> 00:47:40,879
Speaker 1: get pressure on the old line. Yeah, the four nine

929
00:47:40,960 --> 00:47:44,319
Speaker 1: is probably have two really good pass rushers. So I

930
00:47:44,400 --> 00:47:48,040
Speaker 1: love the fact that both defenses strength can be schemed

931
00:47:48,040 --> 00:47:50,640
Speaker 1: out by both these offenses. So that's just to me

932
00:47:50,680 --> 00:47:52,040
Speaker 1: why I kind of want to be in the over

933
00:47:52,080 --> 00:47:53,960
Speaker 1: here where I know the public is gonna be so

934
00:47:54,000 --> 00:47:57,000
Speaker 1: heavy on this under. It sucks. It's already at forty six. Cheat.

935
00:47:57,040 --> 00:48:00,399
Speaker 1: I was hoping we'd get down at four. The pros

936
00:48:00,400 --> 00:48:02,040
Speaker 1: aren't gonna let it. They're gonna be on this over

937
00:48:02,120 --> 00:48:06,400
Speaker 1: so um the public. If you're just simply trying to

938
00:48:06,400 --> 00:48:09,200
Speaker 1: fade the public this week, it's honestly a pretty boring

939
00:48:09,280 --> 00:48:11,560
Speaker 1: easy week for you. Literally just back the Chiefs, you

940
00:48:11,680 --> 00:48:15,759
Speaker 1: back to four niners, you back the over in that

941
00:48:15,880 --> 00:48:18,080
Speaker 1: since the game, and you back the under in this game.

942
00:48:18,120 --> 00:48:21,400
Speaker 1: It's I mean the over in this game. So um.

943
00:48:21,560 --> 00:48:24,640
Speaker 1: We don't obviously bet that way, but it's it's no

944
00:48:24,680 --> 00:48:27,319
Speaker 1: surprise we're looking at these numbers trying on Tuesday. I

945
00:48:27,360 --> 00:48:29,600
Speaker 1: think the books their needs are gonna stay the exact same.

946
00:48:29,640 --> 00:48:32,480
Speaker 1: I think exactly what we're saying right now, the publics

947
00:48:32,480 --> 00:48:34,440
Speaker 1: already kind of made their stance. We know exactly what

948
00:48:34,440 --> 00:48:36,160
Speaker 1: they're gonna do the rest of the week here. So

949
00:48:36,719 --> 00:48:38,480
Speaker 1: the only thing I might change what Chad touched on

950
00:48:38,760 --> 00:48:42,120
Speaker 1: my homes comes out to practice. He's running looking good.

951
00:48:42,920 --> 00:48:45,239
Speaker 1: Uh this that that Chiefs number could come back down

952
00:48:45,280 --> 00:48:47,719
Speaker 1: and the over could go back up. But everything else

953
00:48:47,760 --> 00:48:51,560
Speaker 1: like this Eagles for Niners game. Only only crazy movement

954
00:48:51,560 --> 00:48:53,200
Speaker 1: I could see is this number come down to two

955
00:48:53,440 --> 00:48:54,880
Speaker 1: one and a half. We're going up to three and

956
00:48:54,920 --> 00:48:58,640
Speaker 1: a half. That would be it. Uh. If we were

957
00:48:58,640 --> 00:49:01,840
Speaker 1: to do a Foxhall sign and foxhol Simon says exact

958
00:49:01,840 --> 00:49:06,360
Speaker 1: decision in big balls right now, I feel like I

959
00:49:06,360 --> 00:49:08,640
Speaker 1: don't think we're prepared to do that right now, to

960
00:49:08,719 --> 00:49:10,680
Speaker 1: be honest, Yeah, I mean, going into my head, I could,

961
00:49:10,680 --> 00:49:12,680
Speaker 1: but I would want to do that. No, I think

962
00:49:12,719 --> 00:49:15,279
Speaker 1: we gotta wait. There's two games. We gotta milk it

963
00:49:15,320 --> 00:49:17,160
Speaker 1: a little bit. Yeah, I gotta milk it a little bit.

964
00:49:18,120 --> 00:49:20,720
Speaker 1: We're wrap though, like our early leads. Like the biggest

965
00:49:20,719 --> 00:49:23,239
Speaker 1: thing we're flipping flopping on is we don't know what

966
00:49:23,280 --> 00:49:24,600
Speaker 1: we want to do we like, since you're going to

967
00:49:24,680 --> 00:49:27,440
Speaker 1: this matchup, but the value shipped into the Chiefs. So

968
00:49:27,840 --> 00:49:30,640
Speaker 1: here's what I would say. I do think the spirit

969
00:49:30,680 --> 00:49:35,239
Speaker 1: of Simon says is better number before it's gone. I

970
00:49:35,280 --> 00:49:42,240
Speaker 1: think Simon says, bet the over in Eagles and um niners.

971
00:49:42,760 --> 00:49:45,520
Speaker 1: That's fair if you get the forty five and a half. Yeah,

972
00:49:48,760 --> 00:49:51,560
Speaker 1: I'll tell the check. I think we'll see what Vandal has.

973
00:49:51,600 --> 00:49:53,840
Speaker 1: I think it's mostly at forty six. To be honest,

974
00:49:55,480 --> 00:50:03,080
Speaker 1: Goddamn Green Dot Daily seriously, right, um, yeah, you're right, Yeah, yeah,

975
00:50:03,160 --> 00:50:05,319
Speaker 1: damn dandel is already up to forty six and a half.

976
00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:06,960
Speaker 1: I was going to say, there's some places that are

977
00:50:07,040 --> 00:50:10,680
Speaker 1: forty and I mean we move lines. That's what we do.

978
00:50:11,239 --> 00:50:13,920
Speaker 1: I don't tell you like I wish we were lying,

979
00:50:14,160 --> 00:50:17,879
Speaker 1: but honest to God, talking about these things. It used

980
00:50:17,920 --> 00:50:19,279
Speaker 1: to be we could talk about these things and I

981
00:50:19,280 --> 00:50:21,800
Speaker 1: can wait until after the show to bet him. Fortunately

982
00:50:21,840 --> 00:50:24,920
Speaker 1: I bet everything earlier today. But you can't even do

983
00:50:24,960 --> 00:50:31,080
Speaker 1: that anymore. Yeah, and obviously you know what, that's not ideal.

984
00:50:31,080 --> 00:50:32,719
Speaker 1: It's up to forty six and a half. I'm not

985
00:50:32,760 --> 00:50:36,719
Speaker 1: even I'm not even you know what we're waiting? Well,

986
00:50:36,800 --> 00:50:39,880
Speaker 1: let's wait until Thursday. We'll go, we'll know more information.

987
00:50:40,040 --> 00:50:42,399
Speaker 1: Things will be settling a little bit more. With two games,

988
00:50:42,440 --> 00:50:44,360
Speaker 1: there's too much attention being paid to him. You need

989
00:50:44,640 --> 00:50:49,040
Speaker 1: you need more time. Um, So I guess that's it

990
00:50:49,200 --> 00:50:50,920
Speaker 1: for now. I mean we'll be back on Thursday and

991
00:50:50,960 --> 00:50:54,080
Speaker 1: we'll know more information about the homes and some of

992
00:50:54,080 --> 00:50:57,480
Speaker 1: these lines will be settling a little bit more. I

993
00:50:57,480 --> 00:50:59,440
Speaker 1: mean doing our show since you moved up the two

994
00:50:59,440 --> 00:51:04,040
Speaker 1: and a half on vandal. Really yeah, that's crazy. Yes,

995
00:51:04,080 --> 00:51:11,680
Speaker 1: who's listening? Big money? Guess who's listening? That's amazing? All right,

996
00:51:12,480 --> 00:51:17,040
Speaker 1: this has been the favorites from the Value and Podcast Network.

997
00:51:17,239 --> 00:51:20,080
Speaker 1: I am Chad Mowman. He is Simon Hunter. Our producers

998
00:51:20,120 --> 00:51:24,040
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell. We will be back on Thursday. We will

999
00:51:24,040 --> 00:51:25,879
Speaker 1: give out our foxhold. We will give out our son

1000
00:51:25,920 --> 00:51:27,680
Speaker 1: and says. We will give out our exact decision. We

1001
00:51:27,680 --> 00:51:30,279
Speaker 1: will give our big balls. We need to get some

1002
00:51:30,280 --> 00:51:33,480
Speaker 1: some settling done here download us an Apple Podcasts and

1003
00:51:33,520 --> 00:51:36,000
Speaker 1: Spotify wherever you get your podcast, rate review, subscribe it

1004
00:51:36,000 --> 00:51:38,680
Speaker 1: was five stars. Say whatever you want until next time.

1005
00:51:39,160 --> 00:51:49,040
Speaker 1: Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If

1006
00:51:49,080 --> 00:51:51,840
Speaker 1: you or someone you care about has a gambling problem.

1007
00:51:51,920 --> 00:51:55,400
Speaker 1: Help is available. Seven gambler