WEBVTT - The FOMO Drought

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<v Speaker 1>Welcome to trillions.

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<v Speaker 2>I'm Joel Weber and I'm Eric Alchernas.

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<v Speaker 1>Eric, there's some strange forces in the world of flows

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<v Speaker 1>right now.

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<v Speaker 2>What's going on there definitely is it is an unusual

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<v Speaker 2>year because if you look at the equity markets, they're

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<v Speaker 2>doing great.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah. I thought we were supposed to be in like

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<v Speaker 1>a recession and everything was going to fall apart totally.

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<v Speaker 2>The returns of the cues is upwards of twenty twenty

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<v Speaker 2>five percent s and ps of a lot. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>these are numbers that are double tripled or annual average, right,

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<v Speaker 2>So think about it, You're not even happened in the year.

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<v Speaker 2>You're getting multiple of your the annual return you're supposed

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<v Speaker 2>to get normally. That attracts all the people. People like

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<v Speaker 2>to performance chase. Oh it's going up, I'll buy it, right,

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<v Speaker 2>Get none of that. It's like, as we call it,

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<v Speaker 2>a fomo drought. Nobody is buying into this rally and

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<v Speaker 2>it's very interesting and we have a bunch of interesting

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<v Speaker 2>charts and aftonasio. So my team put most of this

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<v Speaker 2>together that sort of show this short bias in the

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<v Speaker 2>market that existed last year, which is understandable because everything

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<v Speaker 2>was down but it exists this year too, with stuff

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<v Speaker 2>going up, and you know, we'll do our best to

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<v Speaker 2>explain it. But it is a different phenomenon. There's it's

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<v Speaker 2>almost like strange weather.

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<v Speaker 1>To walk us through this phenomenon, We're going to be

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<v Speaker 1>joined by Athanasio Sera Fagus of Bloomberg Intelligence, this time

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<v Speaker 1>on Trillions, the Fomo Drought. Athanasius, welcome back to trillions.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, glad to be back.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, so this is a little bit of a weird year.

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<v Speaker 1>What's the number one thing when you look at the

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<v Speaker 1>flows that jumps out to you.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I mean there's they're not that strong. That's like

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<v Speaker 3>the foamodraw. We actually were saying we were gonna make

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<v Speaker 3>t shirts that we survived the foam.

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<v Speaker 1>Modraw of when have we survived it?

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<v Speaker 2>Though?

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, we're going through it. Yeah we No, that's the

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<v Speaker 1>only thing. Might you know, might change the appetite in

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<v Speaker 1>the moods for sure.

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<v Speaker 3>I'd say probably the biggest difference is money market rates

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<v Speaker 3>being so high. Right, so now you can earn four

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<v Speaker 3>four and a half percent on the money market fund.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, just give me that cash. Yeah, and it's safe.

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<v Speaker 3>You don't need to go into the market and so

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<v Speaker 3>that's definitely a big driver as to why people aren't

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<v Speaker 3>piling into the market. But the performance in the market's

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<v Speaker 3>actually been pretty good. Like when you look at it,

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<v Speaker 3>considering what we've gone through Credit Swiss, how many banks

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<v Speaker 3>have failed, you know, higher rates, the market's been performing okay,

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<v Speaker 3>So I think all that considering, I would expect the

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<v Speaker 3>flows to be a little bit higher, but they're not

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<v Speaker 3>really biting.

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<v Speaker 2>The money market effect should not be understated here. This

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<v Speaker 2>is a big deal. Five percent yield just about on

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<v Speaker 2>a toll pretty much a risk free asset class. That's

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<v Speaker 2>pretty good, right, So that those money market mutual funds

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<v Speaker 2>have grown by about half a trillion this year five

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<v Speaker 2>hundred billion dollars is almost what ETS took in at

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<v Speaker 2>like last year in total. That is a ton of money.

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<v Speaker 2>Some of that money probably would have gone to the

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<v Speaker 2>US equity market or elsewhere. So the money market funds

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<v Speaker 2>in a way have acted like a vampire. They've sucked

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<v Speaker 2>flows that would have gone to equities, and they've also

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<v Speaker 2>sucked volume. US equity volume and equity ETF volume is

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<v Speaker 2>down low, and so there's this sort of sucking effect

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<v Speaker 2>from the money market funds that is also a very

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<v Speaker 2>big component of the pomo drop. Athan, you did a

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<v Speaker 2>great You've dissected this in multiple ways. It's not just that, oh,

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<v Speaker 2>there's limited money going into US equities. I mean, by

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<v Speaker 2>the way, when I say limited, I mean barely anything.

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<v Speaker 2>If you look at US equity ETFs, they took in

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<v Speaker 2>just about a trillion dollars roll over the last two years.

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<v Speaker 2>This year it's like ten or fifteen billion. I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>it's really it's child's play for US equity ETFs and

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<v Speaker 2>fixed income is taken in like sixty or seventy. That

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<v Speaker 2>is a massive, unheard of kind of gap between the two.

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<v Speaker 2>But what makes that interesting is typically that gap you'll

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<v Speaker 2>only see when people are scared. Right, But this is

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<v Speaker 2>more of a competition for your money now because the

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<v Speaker 2>fixed income is yielding a ton.

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<v Speaker 1>But people could be scared still, right, That could be

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<v Speaker 1>r That's totally part of it.

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<v Speaker 2>It could be part of it. Very great. There's some

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<v Speaker 2>factor that there's a recession or even the debt ceiling,

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<v Speaker 2>I get it, or just layover from last year. But Athan,

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<v Speaker 2>take us through. There's a couple interesting little areas of

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<v Speaker 2>the ETF world that show this. Give us one.

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<v Speaker 3>Example, Yeah, We'll start with international. And what's really interesting

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<v Speaker 3>is I looked at all all the countries ranked as

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<v Speaker 3>he's like thirtieth on the list, which is pretty low

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<v Speaker 3>considering it's always been one of the better performing markets.

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<v Speaker 3>But when you look at how we invest here, we're

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<v Speaker 3>very US centric. So most of your portfolio is going

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<v Speaker 3>to be in the US the SMP fund. You might

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<v Speaker 3>have a little bit in international, So even if international

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<v Speaker 3>does really well, you're not all of a sudden going

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<v Speaker 3>to move your whole portfolio into International. So even though

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<v Speaker 3>it's doing really well, it's not enough to entice a

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<v Speaker 3>bunch of money to keep flowing into it, because you're

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<v Speaker 3>still gonna want to stay in the US. So that's

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<v Speaker 3>part of the reason why the US flows are really low.

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<v Speaker 3>And we tend to be very US centric here though,

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<v Speaker 3>so it's not really moving the needle all that much

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<v Speaker 3>on the equity side.

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<v Speaker 2>Like what Eric said, Yeah, look international, eh, I get it,

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<v Speaker 2>I get it, But I just something about international that

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<v Speaker 2>I don't buy. I don't know if I hung around

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<v Speaker 2>with Bogel too much when I did the research in

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<v Speaker 2>the book, because he wasn't a fan of international. He said,

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<v Speaker 2>you don't need it but I don't know. I think

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<v Speaker 2>it's just maybe I'm just too US centric. But so

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<v Speaker 2>many of the juggernaut innovators are in the US, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft,

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<v Speaker 2>these companies are awesome, right, and I don't know how

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<v Speaker 2>many of those you get overseas, And so what you

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<v Speaker 2>tend to have happen is people go to international for

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<v Speaker 2>a minute, but they end up reverting back. So there's

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<v Speaker 2>been like a couple head fakes. So I would need

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<v Speaker 2>international and these other countries to go over two years

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<v Speaker 2>without performing the US before I sort of surrendered or

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<v Speaker 2>bought into the fact that it's real.

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<v Speaker 1>Thirty seems pretty low.

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<v Speaker 3>It it is?

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<v Speaker 1>Where is it?

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<v Speaker 3>Usually it's much much higher A top five, top ten, Yeah,

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<v Speaker 3>top ten at least, But when you look at the

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<v Speaker 3>countries that are on the top of the list, you're like,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, there's some unique standouts, but not enough that

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<v Speaker 3>you're going to move your whole portfolio into it.

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<v Speaker 1>Well that takes a lot of work too. Yeah, so

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<v Speaker 1>that's okay. So after international, where do you go?

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<v Speaker 3>I think one phenomenon that really encompasses it is on

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<v Speaker 3>the closure side. There's this Vanek crypto minors ETF that's

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<v Speaker 3>about the close or might have actually closed. Dam was

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<v Speaker 3>the ticker. It's up like over one hundred percent this year, right,

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<v Speaker 3>So there, it's like, can you imagine if this was

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<v Speaker 3>in twenty nineteen or twenty twenty, you have an ETF

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<v Speaker 3>that's up one hundred percent and it's going to close. No,

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<v Speaker 3>it'd been the opposite flows have been going into it.

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<v Speaker 3>So I think that really sums up nicely this fomo

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<v Speaker 3>d route that you you know, you have this product

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<v Speaker 3>that's up, and it's not just this one. There's a

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<v Speaker 3>lot of crypto ones that are doing really well, but

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<v Speaker 3>people are just not following into it. Either they've been burned,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, in twenty one or so. So I think

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<v Speaker 3>that really comes is very nice over it, just over it.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, what other crypto related funds are similar or maybe

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<v Speaker 1>not imminent in the same way, but just up and

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<v Speaker 1>people don't care. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 3>I think a lot the stuff that was really bad

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<v Speaker 3>last year has done really well this year. It's almost

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<v Speaker 3>completely flipped, Like energy tech, those positions are completely flipped.

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<v Speaker 3>So I sort of caught like a junk rally, like,

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<v Speaker 3>you know, you see this stuff doing really well, is

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<v Speaker 3>it enough that do I want to get start chasing

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<v Speaker 3>crypto again. I got burned already. Am I like ready

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<v Speaker 3>to love again and start doing this again? People just

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<v Speaker 3>are not.

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<v Speaker 1>It's the breakup. It's like we're in the breakup phase.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, am I ready to love again? So it's like

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<v Speaker 2>an air supply lyric.

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<v Speaker 1>Oh man, this is some deep stuff. If you need

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<v Speaker 1>to lay down on the couch to continue to just

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<v Speaker 1>let us know.

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<v Speaker 2>No. But you know, I think it's true. Crypto in

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<v Speaker 2>particular has this other angle of the whole SBF. I

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<v Speaker 2>couldn't get my money out. There's like a big stain

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<v Speaker 2>on the whole industry. But I agree there's other stuff

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<v Speaker 2>that his rally that hasn't gotten bites either. So junk

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<v Speaker 2>might be a harsh word for it. I would just

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<v Speaker 2>call it really high beta like supergrowth. ARC even is

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<v Speaker 2>up big now. It hasn't really seen outflows, but it

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<v Speaker 2>hasn't really seen like everybody come back in in some

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<v Speaker 2>big rush. So across the board, there's just many examples

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<v Speaker 2>of like again a Fomo drought. It's it's like it's gone.

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<v Speaker 2>The FED I think probably is what killed it. You know,

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<v Speaker 2>between always threatening a recession and making the rates so high,

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<v Speaker 2>you can get great yields elsewhere. The FED. In my opinion,

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<v Speaker 2>the FED has done so much to derail things like

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<v Speaker 2>themes ESG crypto. All of these things were sort of

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<v Speaker 2>high beta things like bull market playthings that people got into.

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<v Speaker 2>The FED raises rates. It sort of like sobers everybody

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<v Speaker 2>up instantly, and so it will take a lot more

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<v Speaker 2>enthusiasm and big returns and time, I think to get

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<v Speaker 2>people back to this because of the FED has completely

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<v Speaker 2>change the way they are approaching the market right now.

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<v Speaker 2>Instead of helping the market and giving the market tailwind,

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<v Speaker 2>they're just constantly giving it headwind.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, and if you're a little bit scared or timid

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<v Speaker 1>and to the competition point you raised earlier, there's cash

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<v Speaker 1>over there and you can get the good, healthy return

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<v Speaker 1>in that money market fund that you wouldn't have been

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<v Speaker 1>able to in years past, like take the easy money.

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<v Speaker 1>I guess right, Okay, So what else.

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<v Speaker 3>Leverage ETF trading, This one is pretty interesting. So market's

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<v Speaker 3>been up for a long time. If you look at

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<v Speaker 3>through the trend of flows and trading on the leverage side,

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<v Speaker 3>it's always been very favorite towards the bulls the longside.

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<v Speaker 3>So even if the market went down, people started buying

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<v Speaker 3>leverage long ETFs. That's completely flipped on its side now.

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<v Speaker 3>So now when the market goes up, you start seeing

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<v Speaker 3>a pick up in the short side, meaning that seems

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<v Speaker 3>like people are selling in to the strength versus buying

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<v Speaker 3>the dip, which is what we were doing the last

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<v Speaker 3>couple of years. So that dynamic has completely shifted, and

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<v Speaker 3>you could if you sort of track it over time,

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<v Speaker 3>you could see that there's definitely a short bias still

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<v Speaker 3>in the market even though it's going up. It's maybe

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<v Speaker 3>just tiptoeing into maybe some lever long stuff, but it's

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<v Speaker 3>still very favorite on the short side.

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<v Speaker 1>So that makes me think of though, is that this

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<v Speaker 1>is a market that the professionals might have a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit of a heavier hand than the retail that we've

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<v Speaker 1>witnessed over the past year or two.

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I think that's true. I think Probabe macro has

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<v Speaker 3>become more of a bigger focus now, so I think

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<v Speaker 3>that might just skew the more to the advantage of

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<v Speaker 3>more the institutional side.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, but if you're thinking about remember it was all

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<v Speaker 2>by the dip BTFB and people would especially retail, would

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<v Speaker 2>use TQQQ. So anytime TQQQ which is the triple leverage.

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<v Speaker 2>NASTAC went down a little, they would buy that that

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<v Speaker 2>was the best way to get the most juice out

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<v Speaker 2>of a dip rally. Right now, they're buying sqqq on

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<v Speaker 2>the dip, which effectively is selling the rip. So anytime

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<v Speaker 2>the market goes up a little, they're going right down

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<v Speaker 2>to the short side, so they're buying the dip. Still,

0:11:08.320 --> 0:11:12.280
<v Speaker 2>it's just inverted. So I do think I don't know

0:11:12.320 --> 0:11:14.640
<v Speaker 2>if that's fomo, but that's sort of the fomo crowd.

0:11:14.800 --> 0:11:17.800
<v Speaker 2>And if the fomo crowd keeps buying sqqq on the dips,

0:11:18.200 --> 0:11:21.360
<v Speaker 2>that I guess speaks to are again the larger issue,

0:11:21.360 --> 0:11:25.360
<v Speaker 2>which is that the mass I guess group mind share

0:11:25.440 --> 0:11:28.280
<v Speaker 2>of the market is just generally not really feeling the

0:11:28.360 --> 0:11:32.360
<v Speaker 2>equity rallies. So sqqq used to be like fiftieth most traded.

0:11:32.840 --> 0:11:36.760
<v Speaker 2>Now it's upwards of fourth or fifth. Whoa right, And

0:11:36.800 --> 0:11:40.120
<v Speaker 2>it's above tqq somedays, and so that thing. What you know,

0:11:40.160 --> 0:11:42.200
<v Speaker 2>if you look at the if you did a chart

0:11:42.240 --> 0:11:44.800
<v Speaker 2>of like the most increased volume of ETFs of the

0:11:44.840 --> 0:11:47.960
<v Speaker 2>big ones, right not the small ones, you know sqqq

0:11:48.080 --> 0:11:49.400
<v Speaker 2>is going to be right at the top of the list.

0:11:49.400 --> 0:11:53.719
<v Speaker 2>Because it really had multiple increases of volume over the

0:11:53.760 --> 0:11:57.439
<v Speaker 2>past year because of this phenomenon, and TQQQ kind of

0:11:57.679 --> 0:11:59.280
<v Speaker 2>held the same and came down a little bit. So

0:11:59.280 --> 0:12:02.440
<v Speaker 2>it's the relative of those two that is noteworthy that

0:12:02.480 --> 0:12:03.040
<v Speaker 2>Tom found.

0:12:03.120 --> 0:12:06.240
<v Speaker 1>And you think that's a retail phenomenon or a more

0:12:06.280 --> 0:12:08.040
<v Speaker 1>of a professional institutional one.

0:12:08.520 --> 0:12:10.839
<v Speaker 2>So I'm going to lean retail here, because on the

0:12:10.880 --> 0:12:14.040
<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Terminal HDS shows, you like all the holders from

0:12:14.040 --> 0:12:17.520
<v Speaker 2>like like which big institutions own an ETF And the

0:12:17.640 --> 0:12:22.320
<v Speaker 2>percentage of holders that report owning sqqq is only three percent,

0:12:23.000 --> 0:12:26.400
<v Speaker 2>So that tells me it's ninety eight ninety seven percent

0:12:26.440 --> 0:12:30.920
<v Speaker 2>small investors. That number would be like fifty percent with spy, right,

0:12:31.000 --> 0:12:34.920
<v Speaker 2>So institutions and big advisors are not reporting owning this,

0:12:35.520 --> 0:12:38.600
<v Speaker 2>and so my guess is it's a lot like millions

0:12:38.640 --> 0:12:40.600
<v Speaker 2>of small investors. And remember with that guy we had

0:12:40.600 --> 0:12:43.000
<v Speaker 2>on the show when the Robin Hood thing was going crazy.

0:12:43.080 --> 0:12:45.199
<v Speaker 2>We had that nineteen year old hit on the show,

0:12:45.240 --> 0:12:49.800
<v Speaker 2>and he just loved TQQQ. He was like an sqqq

0:12:49.960 --> 0:12:51.480
<v Speaker 2>He was like, I just want to trade these all

0:12:51.520 --> 0:12:54.360
<v Speaker 2>day every day. They like he became addicted to the

0:12:54.400 --> 0:12:58.040
<v Speaker 2>adrenaline hit of these that these two kickout and Joel

0:12:58.080 --> 0:13:03.160
<v Speaker 2>beyond the volume of inverse ets The flows into inverse

0:13:03.160 --> 0:13:05.880
<v Speaker 2>ETFs are six billion this year. What are they into

0:13:05.920 --> 0:13:10.120
<v Speaker 2>the leverage alongside? Almost nothing? And that six billion represents

0:13:10.120 --> 0:13:13.040
<v Speaker 2>a twenty five percent increase in assets. And again that's

0:13:13.160 --> 0:13:16.160
<v Speaker 2>weird considering how much the market is up right.

0:13:16.280 --> 0:13:18.200
<v Speaker 1>Yeah, people just don't trust the rally.

0:13:18.440 --> 0:13:21.400
<v Speaker 2>They don't trust it. Like I said, they what was

0:13:21.440 --> 0:13:24.760
<v Speaker 2>your line? The air supply? They've fallen in love and again,

0:13:24.880 --> 0:13:27.520
<v Speaker 2>been in love once bit and twice shy, that's a

0:13:27.800 --> 0:13:28.840
<v Speaker 2>that's a great white song.

0:13:30.080 --> 0:13:32.520
<v Speaker 1>Eric quitelse jumps out at you about the flows.

0:13:33.280 --> 0:13:35.640
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so let's look at individual ETFs, right, So we

0:13:35.679 --> 0:13:38.880
<v Speaker 2>look the top ten most inflows and the top ten outflows.

0:13:39.040 --> 0:13:41.360
<v Speaker 2>To me, this speaks also FOMO drop. What's number one?

0:13:41.400 --> 0:13:45.880
<v Speaker 2>TLT boring treasuries right, Number two is qual So if

0:13:45.880 --> 0:13:47.760
<v Speaker 2>they are going to equities, this is the black rock

0:13:47.800 --> 0:13:52.360
<v Speaker 2>trade mostly but qualities thocks right. Voo is third, but

0:13:52.600 --> 0:13:56.560
<v Speaker 2>Vanguard that's like a different laws of physics over there.

0:13:56.559 --> 0:13:58.760
<v Speaker 2>They're going to buy no matter what. And then you

0:13:58.840 --> 0:14:01.480
<v Speaker 2>got aag in there. That's the fixed on the agri

0:14:01.640 --> 0:14:05.640
<v Speaker 2>bonding TFBND right behind it BBU is Europe total market.

0:14:05.679 --> 0:14:09.040
<v Speaker 2>Vanguard doesn't count Schwab five to ten year corporate bond

0:14:09.080 --> 0:14:12.920
<v Speaker 2>and if so, it's all bonds and quality. So that's

0:14:12.960 --> 0:14:18.360
<v Speaker 2>again that's weird considering the double digit returns in both

0:14:18.400 --> 0:14:20.840
<v Speaker 2>the market and the CUES. And then we look at

0:14:20.840 --> 0:14:25.240
<v Speaker 2>the outflows side JEL the cues has seen two point

0:14:25.240 --> 0:14:28.800
<v Speaker 2>five billion of outflows. It's up twenty five percent. Wow,

0:14:29.320 --> 0:14:32.760
<v Speaker 2>that's weird. Now some people are gonna argue there's a

0:14:32.760 --> 0:14:35.080
<v Speaker 2>couple there could be a couple nerds listening who are

0:14:35.120 --> 0:14:38.320
<v Speaker 2>gonna actually me on this and say, well, QQQM, which

0:14:38.360 --> 0:14:41.920
<v Speaker 2>is the new Invesco knockoff, has taken in some money,

0:14:41.960 --> 0:14:45.200
<v Speaker 2>but it hasn't taken it enough to offset that. But

0:14:45.280 --> 0:14:47.640
<v Speaker 2>even if it took in a little, again we're normally

0:14:47.720 --> 0:14:49.840
<v Speaker 2>it's up twenty five percent. We're seeing six to ten

0:14:49.880 --> 0:14:51.920
<v Speaker 2>billion dollars in cloths. Now that's where it should be

0:14:52.240 --> 0:14:56.200
<v Speaker 2>and it's negative. Again weird. And the CUES is largely

0:14:56.280 --> 0:14:57.280
<v Speaker 2>used by the trading crowd.

0:14:57.760 --> 0:14:59.920
<v Speaker 1>Is that AI enthusiasm? You think.

0:15:01.600 --> 0:15:04.040
<v Speaker 2>No, I think? You know? AI is a topic that

0:15:04.160 --> 0:15:06.080
<v Speaker 2>it gets a lot of press. It reminds me of ESG.

0:15:06.800 --> 0:15:09.080
<v Speaker 2>The press and the media and the debate is so

0:15:09.440 --> 0:15:13.200
<v Speaker 2>far out running the actual assets or investor interest. Maybe

0:15:13.200 --> 0:15:15.320
<v Speaker 2>the assets will catch up, but I think AI right

0:15:15.320 --> 0:15:19.040
<v Speaker 2>now is just a you know, very interesting thing to

0:15:19.040 --> 0:15:21.560
<v Speaker 2>talk about the media. We're seeing more names with AI

0:15:21.680 --> 0:15:23.640
<v Speaker 2>in it, but they have no assets yet. It's not

0:15:23.680 --> 0:15:27.480
<v Speaker 2>really a viable category, so I would say no. Also

0:15:27.480 --> 0:15:30.720
<v Speaker 2>in the outflow list, Joel is XLK the tech ETF

0:15:31.600 --> 0:15:34.000
<v Speaker 2>and then number one on the outflows, as I've probably

0:15:34.040 --> 0:15:37.040
<v Speaker 2>mentioned a couple of times this year, is ESGU. Remember

0:15:37.400 --> 0:15:41.440
<v Speaker 2>ESG is sort of a bull market play like crypto

0:15:41.600 --> 0:15:44.080
<v Speaker 2>because it tends to favor growth in tech. So you

0:15:44.120 --> 0:15:47.640
<v Speaker 2>have outflows from ESG. So again, the FED has just

0:15:48.000 --> 0:15:51.480
<v Speaker 2>reaped havoc on so much of the market. And you

0:15:51.480 --> 0:15:53.280
<v Speaker 2>know our Remember we were on talking the beginning of

0:15:53.280 --> 0:15:56.320
<v Speaker 2>the year and Athan was talking about fundamentals, and I

0:15:56.320 --> 0:15:58.240
<v Speaker 2>think at the end of the day, if stocks are

0:15:58.320 --> 0:15:59.520
<v Speaker 2>going to get bids, are going to be a very

0:15:59.560 --> 0:16:01.880
<v Speaker 2>fundamental sober bid for a while.

0:16:03.120 --> 0:16:09.240
<v Speaker 1>Okay, So if John Author's great Bloomberg opinion columnist, we're here,

0:16:09.520 --> 0:16:11.120
<v Speaker 1>and it was the end of the year. He does

0:16:11.160 --> 0:16:14.360
<v Speaker 1>a column called hindsight Capital, which is what you should

0:16:14.360 --> 0:16:16.480
<v Speaker 1>have invested in at the beginning of the year. We

0:16:16.520 --> 0:16:18.680
<v Speaker 1>are now halfway through the year. If we were doing

0:16:18.680 --> 0:16:23.360
<v Speaker 1>a hindsight capital episode, what should you have done in

0:16:23.400 --> 0:16:25.960
<v Speaker 1>the ETF world to have crushed it so far this year?

0:16:26.920 --> 0:16:30.560
<v Speaker 2>You should have bought FNGU, that's the micro sectors, Fang

0:16:30.640 --> 0:16:37.520
<v Speaker 2>plus triple leveraged, it's up. You should have bought ultra

0:16:37.560 --> 0:16:41.720
<v Speaker 2>short natural gas. And you should have bought crypto bitcoin minors.

0:16:42.000 --> 0:16:43.880
<v Speaker 3>I just wanted to say Crypto should have bought what

0:16:43.920 --> 0:16:46.280
<v Speaker 3>didn't work, anything that didn't work last year, you.

0:16:46.240 --> 0:16:49.560
<v Speaker 1>Should have bought this year. Yeah, yeah, no, wonder, no

0:16:49.640 --> 0:16:52.880
<v Speaker 1>wonder if the fomo drought is a thing? Okay, so

0:16:52.880 --> 0:16:55.720
<v Speaker 1>so can this drought d because I mean I think

0:16:55.760 --> 0:16:58.320
<v Speaker 1>about this. You just have this risk free place that

0:16:58.360 --> 0:17:02.200
<v Speaker 1>you can put your money called cash and these money macrophones,

0:17:02.720 --> 0:17:05.400
<v Speaker 1>and I'll just sit on the sidelines until it feels

0:17:05.440 --> 0:17:07.840
<v Speaker 1>like there's a buying opportunity that is more of a

0:17:07.880 --> 0:17:10.040
<v Speaker 1>sure thing than whatever this outlook is.

0:17:10.440 --> 0:17:13.040
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, that might eventually cause the end of the drought.

0:17:13.040 --> 0:17:15.560
<v Speaker 3>And again this is just anecdotal. You know, talking to

0:17:15.600 --> 0:17:17.439
<v Speaker 3>my friends who are you know, not in the market

0:17:17.480 --> 0:17:19.880
<v Speaker 3>or anything, and they're always waiting to like keep asking

0:17:19.920 --> 0:17:21.679
<v Speaker 3>me when can I come back into the market, Like

0:17:21.720 --> 0:17:25.080
<v Speaker 3>when can I start buying? So there might be something happening,

0:17:25.600 --> 0:17:27.880
<v Speaker 3>even a further dip, and then you have this massive

0:17:28.000 --> 0:17:30.600
<v Speaker 3>buying opportunity, right and you start seeing a bunch of

0:17:30.640 --> 0:17:32.399
<v Speaker 3>money move in, So that might cause the end of

0:17:32.400 --> 0:17:34.719
<v Speaker 3>the drought. But uh, for now, it seems like everyone's

0:17:34.720 --> 0:17:36.960
<v Speaker 3>pretty content with just earning you know, four four and

0:17:36.960 --> 0:17:37.600
<v Speaker 3>a half percent.

0:17:37.880 --> 0:17:40.560
<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so I pulled. I did a Twitter poll and

0:17:40.600 --> 0:17:42.880
<v Speaker 2>I got three hundred and ten votes so far, and

0:17:42.920 --> 0:17:45.120
<v Speaker 2>I said, you know, when it comes to your personal portfolio,

0:17:45.440 --> 0:17:47.680
<v Speaker 2>have you increased, decreased, or done nothing to your US

0:17:47.680 --> 0:17:53.000
<v Speaker 2>secretary exposure twenty six percent increase, thirty percent, decrease forty

0:17:53.000 --> 0:17:56.040
<v Speaker 2>two percent, no change, So that if you net that out,

0:17:56.040 --> 0:18:00.159
<v Speaker 2>that's more sellers than buyers. So this is again and

0:18:00.280 --> 0:18:02.760
<v Speaker 2>just pulling the people so they match up with you know,

0:18:02.800 --> 0:18:05.960
<v Speaker 2>Athen's friends over there. But in my opinion, you know,

0:18:06.119 --> 0:18:08.440
<v Speaker 2>just as there was a mystery to why people kept

0:18:08.960 --> 0:18:11.879
<v Speaker 2>pouring into the market when evaluations were really high in

0:18:11.920 --> 0:18:15.560
<v Speaker 2>twenty twenty twenty twenty one, people were like, these people

0:18:15.600 --> 0:18:20.280
<v Speaker 2>are crazy that because the FED had our back, and

0:18:20.320 --> 0:18:23.439
<v Speaker 2>so now the FED has to deal with inflation, and

0:18:23.480 --> 0:18:26.639
<v Speaker 2>there's this always this dark cloud hanging above everything that

0:18:26.680 --> 0:18:29.439
<v Speaker 2>they're going to hike again if an inflation print is

0:18:29.480 --> 0:18:32.440
<v Speaker 2>hot and it's going to ruin everything. So it's gone

0:18:32.480 --> 0:18:34.600
<v Speaker 2>from like a sunny sky to a dark cloud, kind

0:18:34.600 --> 0:18:37.600
<v Speaker 2>of like following investors. So to me, the FOMO draft

0:18:37.720 --> 0:18:40.640
<v Speaker 2>ends when the FED just sort of drops his hands

0:18:40.680 --> 0:18:44.640
<v Speaker 2>and says we're done. And I don't know when that happens.

0:18:45.200 --> 0:18:46.920
<v Speaker 1>Athanasios, thanks so much for joining us.

0:18:47.440 --> 0:18:48.400
<v Speaker 3>Yeah, thanks for having me.

0:18:54.320 --> 0:18:57.240
<v Speaker 4>Thanks for listening to Trillions until next time. You can

0:18:57.320 --> 0:19:02.159
<v Speaker 4>find us on the Bloomberg Terminal, Bloomberg dot com, Apple Podcasts, Spotify,

0:19:02.800 --> 0:19:03.640
<v Speaker 4>or wherever else.

0:19:03.480 --> 0:19:05.719
<v Speaker 1>You'd like to listen. We'd love to hear from you.

0:19:06.119 --> 0:19:09.840
<v Speaker 4>We're on Twitter, I'm at Joel Webber Show. He's at

0:19:09.960 --> 0:19:14.680
<v Speaker 4>Eric Balchuna's. This episode of Trillions was produced by Magnus Hendrickson.

0:19:15.560 --> 0:19:17.720
<v Speaker 4>Bye