WEBVTT - Biden’s ‘Organic’ Strategy for US-China Diplomacy 0:00:00.520 --> 0:00:03.120 It's been quite a week for UK politics. 0:00:03.000 --> 0:00:06.360 Indeed with a reshuffle that I don't think people really 0:00:06.440 --> 0:00:08.720 they knew the reshuffle was coming at some point, but 0:00:09.119 --> 0:00:10.520 the timing to lots of people by. 0:00:10.440 --> 0:00:13.880 Saying that were interesting. I mean this one, there was 0:00:13.920 --> 0:00:15.200 like this collect in the news and there was a 0:00:15.280 --> 0:00:18.560 sort of collective I mean, you don't get the moment 0:00:19.040 --> 0:00:20.520 what well. 0:00:20.400 --> 0:00:23.759 There was, but David Cameron appeared out of his ranger 0:00:24.079 --> 0:00:27.160 in Downing Street and it seemed from Twitter that everyone 0:00:27.160 --> 0:00:31.280 had a collective kind of second check like rubbing their eyes. 0:00:31.280 --> 0:00:32.879 Am I seeing things correct? Correctly? 0:00:33.200 --> 0:00:37.760 And it's really pertinent David Cameron's appointment, isn't it for 0:00:38.040 --> 0:00:41.199 the summit that took place between g and Biden last night. 0:00:42.000 --> 0:00:45.639 He's the epitome in the United Kingdom of that attempt 0:00:46.360 --> 0:00:50.560 in the twenty ten onwards period of trying to economically 0:00:50.560 --> 0:00:56.760 engage more point was that famous pub visit. And now 0:00:56.800 --> 0:00:58.640 here we are in twenty twenty three when so much 0:00:58.640 --> 0:00:59.280 has changed. 0:00:59.520 --> 0:01:02.760 But what was the appointment about. Is it about just 0:01:02.840 --> 0:01:05.560 getting a heavyweight in the cabinet or is it really 0:01:05.600 --> 0:01:08.160 about foreign but OBSSI I'm trying to get closer to China. 0:01:08.240 --> 0:01:11.520 I don't think it's the latter about China. But I 0:01:11.560 --> 0:01:16.680 think my understanding is that in the time recently, in 0:01:16.680 --> 0:01:18.880 the last month is it now five weeks since Israel 0:01:19.240 --> 0:01:24.919 and her mass have been in conflict, Richie Sunac has 0:01:25.040 --> 0:01:26.920 very often. What happens with prime ministers is they do 0:01:26.959 --> 0:01:28.800 get former prime ministers on the phone quite a lot. 0:01:28.840 --> 0:01:31.000 It's quite interesting quite how much, and it doesn't really 0:01:31.000 --> 0:01:33.720 matter which party they are they'll get people. I remember 0:01:33.760 --> 0:01:36.279 Boris Johnson would get Tony Blair on the phone during 0:01:36.480 --> 0:01:39.119 COVID and so on, so it's quite it's quite habitual 0:01:39.200 --> 0:01:42.600 for former leaders to want to help. And my understanding 0:01:42.680 --> 0:01:45.280 is that Richie Sunak was talking a lot to David 0:01:45.280 --> 0:01:48.200 Cameron because he does have insight both into the Israeli 0:01:48.200 --> 0:01:51.240 side of politics, but also to the Gulf and the 0:01:51.280 --> 0:01:53.760 Arab side of things. It does have the advantage. Lots 0:01:53.760 --> 0:01:55.280 of people have written this. I think it's true. It 0:01:55.320 --> 0:01:58.200 does have the advantage that going into an election twelve 0:01:58.240 --> 0:02:03.320 fourteen months, seeing that can do more concentration on domestic politics. 0:02:03.680 --> 0:02:06.240 Yes, the dangerous as long as he can keep David 0:02:06.280 --> 0:02:10.079 Cameron under control is another podcast. 0:02:10.160 --> 0:02:10.720 Isn't it. 0:02:19.040 --> 0:02:21.840 Welcome to in the City, Bloomberg's podcast, connecting you to 0:02:21.880 --> 0:02:24.760 the conversations and the stories shaping the world of finance. 0:02:24.960 --> 0:02:27.720 I'm Francine Lakwa in our London studio with David Merritt 0:02:27.760 --> 0:02:28.720 and elect Gross Stratton. 0:02:28.960 --> 0:02:31.920 And so this week after the Biden She meeting, we 0:02:31.960 --> 0:02:34.040 want to find out where things stand between the world's 0:02:34.560 --> 0:02:36.880 biggest economies. Also connect the dots a little bit with 0:02:36.960 --> 0:02:41.040 events here in the UK, the surprise appointment of David Cameron. 0:02:41.320 --> 0:02:45.119 He of the Golden Age between Britain and China. What 0:02:45.160 --> 0:02:49.680 that means in terms of the relationship with Britain and 0:02:49.680 --> 0:02:51.000 the world's second biggest economy. 0:02:51.600 --> 0:02:55.079 So with us from DC. Jennifer Welsh, chief economic analyst 0:02:55.120 --> 0:02:58.760 that Bloomberg Economics. Before Bloomberg, she spent nearly eight years 0:02:58.800 --> 0:03:01.639 as analyst for the government, including on the National Security 0:03:01.639 --> 0:03:04.880 Council as a director for China and Taiwan. To Jennifer, 0:03:04.960 --> 0:03:08.280 you understand this, and you've also come back fresh off 0:03:08.320 --> 0:03:10.680 a plane because you were at the meeting where President 0:03:10.720 --> 0:03:12.520 She ended at President Biden. 0:03:12.440 --> 0:03:15.480 Meeting fresh off the plane from San Francisco is still 0:03:15.520 --> 0:03:18.760 in the airport lounge, and I think both leaders can 0:03:18.840 --> 0:03:21.760 leave this meeting saying it was a success for them. 0:03:21.960 --> 0:03:26.359 I think from President Biden's perspective, he achieved a consensus 0:03:26.360 --> 0:03:29.920 on many of his main items going into it, in 0:03:29.960 --> 0:03:33.760 particular agreement to cooperate on steming fentanyl flows to the US, 0:03:34.040 --> 0:03:37.880 reopening military and military channels, establishing a working group to 0:03:37.920 --> 0:03:42.320 discuss artificial intelligence, and, as he reiterated multiple times throughout 0:03:42.400 --> 0:03:45.240 his press conference last night, a commitment to pick up 0:03:45.280 --> 0:03:48.280 the phone if the other leader needed to talk. I 0:03:48.280 --> 0:03:51.080 think from She's perspective, his main goal going in the 0:03:51.120 --> 0:03:55.320 meeting was to project stability in US China ties as 0:03:55.440 --> 0:03:58.880 part of a broader effort to reassure investors and in 0:03:59.000 --> 0:04:03.240 particular foreign and cerin businesses, that China is open for business. 0:04:03.240 --> 0:04:06.040 It's a good business environment for them still, and that 0:04:06.120 --> 0:04:08.400 seemed to be a message he was projecting not only 0:04:08.440 --> 0:04:11.080 throughout the meeting, but also at the dinner he attended 0:04:11.120 --> 0:04:14.440 last night with a number of American CEOs and investors. 0:04:15.000 --> 0:04:17.160 So, Jennifer, you know you as you know you're you're 0:04:17.240 --> 0:04:19.039 used to how these things work, and obviously they're they're 0:04:19.160 --> 0:04:22.400 very finely choreographed every sort of moment, the messages. So 0:04:22.440 --> 0:04:25.480 when you say it's a success. Does that mean it 0:04:25.560 --> 0:04:28.320 was just you know, the script that everyone came armed 0:04:28.360 --> 0:04:32.640 with was delivered, or were there any breakthroughs that perhaps 0:04:32.680 --> 0:04:36.240 surprised people in terms of you know, thawing of relations. 0:04:36.279 --> 0:04:38.240 I mean, the only sort of unscripted moment seems to 0:04:38.360 --> 0:04:41.400 be this moment when Joe Biden said he still thinks 0:04:41.400 --> 0:04:44.640 she is a dictator I mean, which is obviously hopefully 0:04:44.680 --> 0:04:46.760 not or potentially not planned. Was there anything that was 0:04:46.839 --> 0:04:49.280 kind of off script that could be counted as as 0:04:49.320 --> 0:04:49.839 a win here? 0:04:50.960 --> 0:04:54.400 I think so largely speaking, just to take a step back, Yeah, 0:04:54.520 --> 0:04:58.359 most of these agreements were probably reached in advance of 0:04:58.400 --> 0:05:01.240 the meeting to ensure that they could walk out with 0:05:01.320 --> 0:05:05.320 an agreement on what specifically they had discussed and what 0:05:05.440 --> 0:05:08.120 specifically they had agreed to. So all of that was 0:05:08.160 --> 0:05:12.479 probably negotiated in advance. The other items that they discussed 0:05:12.480 --> 0:05:14.719 but didn't come to an agreement on the many other 0:05:14.800 --> 0:05:18.239 bilateral and global issues, they probably also agreed in advance, 0:05:18.320 --> 0:05:20.680 we're going to discuss these things. They probably realized they 0:05:20.680 --> 0:05:22.960 weren't going to come to a consensus on it. I 0:05:23.000 --> 0:05:26.640 think some of the things that from my perspective, were 0:05:26.640 --> 0:05:30.360 probably more organic to the moment were the interactions between 0:05:30.440 --> 0:05:34.240 the two leaders, in particular when President Biden came out 0:05:34.279 --> 0:05:38.720 to greet President She and then at the it sounds 0:05:38.760 --> 0:05:41.919 like at some point during the meeting, President Biden handed 0:05:42.080 --> 0:05:45.480 President She a photo of she when he had visited 0:05:45.520 --> 0:05:48.560 San Francisco back in the eighties, and that was something 0:05:48.640 --> 0:05:51.640 that she apparently found very touching. He talked about this 0:05:51.720 --> 0:05:55.000 at the CEO dinner last night. And then the other 0:05:55.080 --> 0:05:58.919 piece that again she seemed to really find to be 0:05:59.000 --> 0:06:03.000 an important signaled towards him of respect was when President 0:06:03.120 --> 0:06:06.080 Biden walked him out and they took a few minutes 0:06:06.120 --> 0:06:10.040 and were chatting by She Jimping's car about the car 0:06:10.120 --> 0:06:12.920 and I think, more broadly, just trying to establish more 0:06:12.920 --> 0:06:17.240 of a rapport. Those moments were probably not scripted, and 0:06:17.560 --> 0:06:19.640 it seemed like She Jinping might have even been slightly 0:06:19.680 --> 0:06:20.599 surprised by them. 0:06:20.640 --> 0:06:22.760 So it's a little bit warmer then you reckon, like, 0:06:22.800 --> 0:06:24.560 do you think a takeaway is actually they sort of 0:06:24.560 --> 0:06:27.719 get on a bit better than leaders of two countries 0:06:27.760 --> 0:06:29.680 that have been singing so much mother around the last 0:06:29.760 --> 0:06:30.680 year should be getting on. 0:06:31.720 --> 0:06:36.159 My sense of this is that President Biden has I 0:06:36.160 --> 0:06:39.200 mean to say he has deep foreign policy expertise would 0:06:39.240 --> 0:06:42.960 be an understatement he is. He is decades of experience 0:06:43.000 --> 0:06:46.600 in this realm, and he is really a very skilled diplomat. 0:06:47.160 --> 0:06:49.240 I think a lot of that with this was his 0:06:49.279 --> 0:06:53.080 initiative thinking through how to establish a rapport with this 0:06:53.120 --> 0:06:58.240 other leader, even though the Biden administration views China as 0:06:58.279 --> 0:07:00.840 a chief rival. I think President Biden has put an 0:07:00.839 --> 0:07:04.760 emphasis on still having a relationship with She that allows 0:07:04.800 --> 0:07:07.600 them to be able to work together when necessary, and 0:07:07.920 --> 0:07:11.040 I see a lot of President Biden's sort of fingerprints 0:07:11.080 --> 0:07:14.000 on this and his thinking through of how to establish 0:07:14.000 --> 0:07:17.880 that rapport. Candidly, I don't think it's and this goes 0:07:17.920 --> 0:07:20.720 back to the question earlier about his comments about She 0:07:20.840 --> 0:07:24.760 being a digitator. I wouldn't think of this as necessarily 0:07:25.880 --> 0:07:28.960 he has necessarily warmed feelings towards teaching being so much 0:07:28.960 --> 0:07:31.720 as this is a someone he has to have a 0:07:31.720 --> 0:07:34.520 working relationship with for the sake of both of their countries. 0:07:34.920 --> 0:07:36.560 I think there are a lot of things that he 0:07:36.640 --> 0:07:39.920 disagrees with She about, and you know, obviously they have 0:07:40.040 --> 0:07:43.560 very different approaches to leadership, and President Biden is a 0:07:43.600 --> 0:07:47.400 strong believer in democracy and democratic values, so I wouldn't 0:07:47.480 --> 0:07:49.920 see this necessarily as him trying to court she out 0:07:49.920 --> 0:07:54.160 of admiration for him, so much as his feeling that 0:07:54.200 --> 0:07:56.800 it's important that they'd be able to work together for 0:07:56.880 --> 0:07:58.480 the sake of both their countries. 0:07:58.760 --> 0:08:01.400 Jennifer, can I just ask you when you talked, is 0:08:01.600 --> 0:08:05.280 really interesting to hear you say he had deep diplomatic skills, 0:08:05.520 --> 0:08:08.360 which I completely agree with from here in London. But 0:08:09.440 --> 0:08:11.760 when you look at the comments he makes at the 0:08:11.880 --> 0:08:15.880 end of that press conference about about China being a dictatorship, 0:08:16.400 --> 0:08:19.760 and then you see the cutaway of Blincoln rolling his 0:08:19.840 --> 0:08:20.920 eyes and kind. 0:08:20.680 --> 0:08:23.120 Of looking heaven worse. 0:08:23.720 --> 0:08:26.640 But the sort of the observation the obbos of the 0:08:26.680 --> 0:08:30.400 other face palm, Yeah, the observation I have. And I 0:08:30.440 --> 0:08:33.120 wonder what you think is it didn't seem to me 0:08:33.200 --> 0:08:36.200 like Biden misspoke. And we have a saying in the 0:08:36.280 --> 0:08:39.560 UK that a gaff is often a moment of honesty 0:08:39.679 --> 0:08:43.240 that people aren't supposed to say, rather than necessarily saying 0:08:43.240 --> 0:08:46.959 they're completely the wrong thing. So I just wonder what 0:08:47.000 --> 0:08:49.880 your take is on Biden and where they actually in 0:08:49.880 --> 0:08:53.920 that moment he was courting, you know, the bits of 0:08:54.520 --> 0:08:57.640 America that are really concerned and worried about China and 0:08:57.800 --> 0:09:00.120 was trying to have it both ways, or whether it 0:09:00.320 --> 0:09:04.000 was deeply unfortunate and blink and kind of looking in 0:09:04.080 --> 0:09:07.000 despair was actually nearer the truth of it. 0:09:07.920 --> 0:09:12.480 No, I think your first hypothesis is probably right. I 0:09:12.480 --> 0:09:15.479 think this is a genuine reflection in President Biden's worldview. 0:09:15.640 --> 0:09:18.839 And you know, at the beginning of his administration he 0:09:19.000 --> 0:09:23.160 was especially very clear about the global challenges facing democracies, 0:09:23.240 --> 0:09:25.720 and that's really kind of carried through and you see 0:09:25.760 --> 0:09:28.280 it and how he talks about Russia and China. You 0:09:28.280 --> 0:09:31.440 see it, and how he talks about Ukraine and other 0:09:31.520 --> 0:09:34.600 conflicts around the world. And it's not the first time 0:09:34.640 --> 0:09:37.280 he's referred to she as this. I think you know, 0:09:37.360 --> 0:09:40.280 he did take the question, even though his press conference 0:09:40.320 --> 0:09:44.040 was technically over, he did still take a moment to 0:09:44.440 --> 0:09:48.600 answer the question. And yes, part of the calculus might 0:09:48.640 --> 0:09:51.000 have been one. This is his genuine world view, and 0:09:51.240 --> 0:09:53.720 in case people are confused, he wants to make that clear. 0:09:54.120 --> 0:09:58.240 And then too, to your point, there is often a 0:09:58.360 --> 0:10:02.400 danger that people will over interpret these sorts of meetings 0:10:02.520 --> 0:10:07.320 and think that the United States is courting China or 0:10:07.520 --> 0:10:09.880 is looking the other way when it comes to China's 0:10:10.160 --> 0:10:14.000 human rights abuses, and this might have been him taking 0:10:14.040 --> 0:10:17.000 the opportunity to clarify where he is on those things, 0:10:17.000 --> 0:10:20.680 because again I do think having heard him talk about this, 0:10:21.040 --> 0:10:23.280 and having heard him talk about it, especially when it 0:10:23.280 --> 0:10:27.920 comes to these rivals, I think it's something that means 0:10:28.320 --> 0:10:30.840 genuinely quite a lot to him and is a really 0:10:30.920 --> 0:10:35.840 important part of how he views the World's. 0:10:34.120 --> 0:10:36.880 Surprising Jennifer that China didn't react more to that. And again, 0:10:36.960 --> 0:10:39.760 I can't imagine really being like a sexuary shape, but 0:10:39.840 --> 0:10:42.280 you know, having gone through I guess briefing with your 0:10:42.280 --> 0:10:44.040 boss and then here or something like that. 0:10:43.880 --> 0:10:46.400 Well, I mean I was used to work for Boris, right, 0:10:46.720 --> 0:10:49.240 feels a bit like that. You get your like ninety 0:10:49.320 --> 0:10:50.160 five percent. 0:10:49.880 --> 0:10:51.800 Of your way through the event and then you're like, 0:10:52.400 --> 0:10:54.960 oh my goodness, me the thing he's not supposed though, 0:10:54.960 --> 0:10:57.840 I think we're all agreeing that actually Providen, you know, 0:10:58.400 --> 0:11:01.000 intentionally spoke Yeah, but you know, you get all the 0:11:01.000 --> 0:11:03.440 way through this event and it's so interesting, you say, Jennifer, 0:11:03.600 --> 0:11:05.520 was that he didn't need to take that question, and 0:11:05.559 --> 0:11:07.800 I remember that feeling as well, of like why. 0:11:07.600 --> 0:11:09.760 Did he just randomly take an extra question? It was 0:11:09.800 --> 0:11:11.400 going so well up at that point. 0:11:11.800 --> 0:11:14.840 What happens afterwards? Do you actually tell the leader like, well. 0:11:14.760 --> 0:11:16.320 No, I mean you were kind of small. 0:11:16.400 --> 0:11:19.880 I mean, it's all kind of gloriously shambalic, certainly in 0:11:19.920 --> 0:11:21.880 the United Kingdom where you have a small kind of 0:11:21.960 --> 0:11:25.600 debrief huddle, and the principle is that they're known inside government. 0:11:25.679 --> 0:11:28.120 You know, in my case it would have been Boris. 0:11:28.360 --> 0:11:31.080 You know, they will just say, oh, well, you know, 0:11:31.120 --> 0:11:33.360 you can tidy that up, right, and they go after 0:11:33.400 --> 0:11:34.600 the next meeting and. 0:11:34.559 --> 0:11:38.000 You probably have like five people on the phone just 0:11:38.040 --> 0:11:40.640 to make sure, you know, how is the other side reacting. 0:11:40.360 --> 0:11:42.680 Doing the tidying up, doing the tidying up. 0:11:42.640 --> 0:11:44.880 And Jennifer and for the moment, like China seems to 0:11:44.920 --> 0:11:47.240 have reacted, Okay, they're largely ignoring it. 0:11:48.240 --> 0:11:51.800 Yeah, we're not seeing anything in terms of the public reaction, certainly, 0:11:51.840 --> 0:11:54.200 and when you can trust it with when he had 0:11:54.200 --> 0:11:57.600 made the comments earlier this summer as well, and there 0:11:57.679 --> 0:12:00.320 was more of a stronger public reaction to it, we 0:12:00.360 --> 0:12:03.040 haven't seen that yet. And in fact, she gmping gave 0:12:03.080 --> 0:12:07.600 a major speech to this business dinner last night and 0:12:07.720 --> 0:12:11.080 still was reflecting very warm feelings coming out of that 0:12:11.200 --> 0:12:14.200 meeting and talking a lot, in particular about his rapport 0:12:14.280 --> 0:12:18.000 with President Biden. My guest would be that there's not 0:12:18.120 --> 0:12:21.760 really an incentive for them to play this up publicly 0:12:21.880 --> 0:12:25.120 because she wants to portray the US channel relationship as 0:12:25.240 --> 0:12:25.880 very stable. 0:12:26.000 --> 0:12:28.600 I mean, it's so interesting, Jennifer, because just in terms 0:12:28.640 --> 0:12:31.480 of who's got the kind of upper hand here in 0:12:31.520 --> 0:12:34.240 this situation. Looking stepping back and looking at the economic 0:12:34.320 --> 0:12:38.280 situation in China right now, there's a lot of headwinds 0:12:38.320 --> 0:12:40.959 that she's doing things facing right and as a result 0:12:41.360 --> 0:12:45.400 his utter dominance of politics in China, it isn't quite 0:12:45.440 --> 0:12:47.400 as secure, was it as it was before. You've got 0:12:47.559 --> 0:12:50.839 plunging growth, You've got a demographic problem. So he comes 0:12:50.840 --> 0:12:55.040 to San Francisco and courts business leaders in a slightly 0:12:55.120 --> 0:12:57.760 less dominant fashion, right than we've seen in the past. 0:12:57.760 --> 0:12:59.080 We all remember the year what do they call it 0:12:59.120 --> 0:13:01.720 when they I think when they came here Golden era, 0:13:01.880 --> 0:13:04.640 the Golden era under Datatman we could talk China, but 0:13:04.679 --> 0:13:08.240 you know, the diplomats called themselves the wolf warriors. Is 0:13:08.240 --> 0:13:10.360 it coming in And even the Queen complained about the 0:13:10.400 --> 0:13:14.880 attitude of them when they came to Britain and now 0:13:14.920 --> 0:13:17.520 there's this feeling of coming in slightly more in supplication. 0:13:17.679 --> 0:13:19.800 Is it because they need the economic ties and they 0:13:19.840 --> 0:13:22.440 need the technology, and they need to rebuild these bridges 0:13:22.679 --> 0:13:24.640 in order to shore up the economy and therefore his 0:13:24.679 --> 0:13:26.880 domestic position. Do you what was the your sense, Jenni, 0:13:26.920 --> 0:13:29.319 from the ground of those sort of power dynamics in the. 0:13:29.240 --> 0:13:33.560 Summit, I think that that was definitely She's aim going 0:13:33.600 --> 0:13:36.360 in was to try and rebuild a foreign investor in 0:13:36.400 --> 0:13:39.920 foreign business confidence in China because that is still important 0:13:39.920 --> 0:13:42.160 for China's growth model to have the foreign investment, have 0:13:42.240 --> 0:13:45.839 access to foreign technology, as you noted, to have that 0:13:46.200 --> 0:13:48.400 growth path forward to what he eventually wants to get to, 0:13:48.480 --> 0:13:51.400 which is more self sufficiency. But they're not very yet. 0:13:52.120 --> 0:13:55.160 At the same time, from what we were hearing about, 0:13:55.440 --> 0:13:58.280 the ticket price for that dinner last night, and in 0:13:58.320 --> 0:14:01.360 particular the ticket price at the head table, was she 0:14:02.440 --> 0:14:04.800 and based on who turns up at the dinner, it 0:14:04.880 --> 0:14:09.240 seemed like there were plenty of businesses and investors that 0:14:09.280 --> 0:14:12.000 were extremely interested in going and meeting with him. 0:14:12.400 --> 0:14:15.560 So how much we're all looking at each other. 0:14:15.760 --> 0:14:17.560 I didn't had to pay for it. 0:14:18.160 --> 0:14:22.640 Oh, yes, so the reports were that the entrance ticket 0:14:22.680 --> 0:14:25.400 to the dinner itself was about two thousand dollars, and 0:14:25.600 --> 0:14:28.440 it was magnitudes higher if you wanted to the head table. 0:14:28.600 --> 0:14:29.560 Was she jimping. 0:14:30.840 --> 0:14:31.480 The White House? 0:14:32.680 --> 0:14:36.640 Definitely not the White House. I think I would assume 0:14:36.680 --> 0:14:38.840 it went to the dinner hosts, who were the US 0:14:38.920 --> 0:14:43.800 China Business Council, along with a couple of other US based, uh, 0:14:44.360 --> 0:14:47.360 you know, organizations that are involved in kind of facilitating 0:14:47.440 --> 0:14:53.080 US China cultural and other connections. But all that is 0:14:53.080 --> 0:14:55.680 to say, like the paradynamic might have been like slightly 0:14:56.120 --> 0:14:58.040 mixed in the sense that there are all these investors 0:14:58.040 --> 0:15:00.680 and businesses who were clearly really interested and getting close 0:15:00.760 --> 0:15:03.600 to she and talking with him, and who seem by 0:15:04.000 --> 0:15:07.720 all accounts still extremely interested in the China environment. I'm 0:15:07.720 --> 0:15:10.800 thinking about folks like Elon Musk and Tim Cook who 0:15:11.720 --> 0:15:14.640 were seen at the dinner last night and then at 0:15:14.680 --> 0:15:17.480 the meeting itself. Yeah, I think when you look at 0:15:17.560 --> 0:15:20.920 the wrap sheet of what President Biden's agenda was going 0:15:20.960 --> 0:15:23.440 into it, and what She's agenda probably was, and then 0:15:23.480 --> 0:15:25.560 you look at the outcomes from the meeting, I mean 0:15:25.560 --> 0:15:28.280 there are several very specific things that President and Biden 0:15:28.360 --> 0:15:31.080 can point to that he got out of it. It's 0:15:31.120 --> 0:15:35.600 not quite as clear what she dmping got out of 0:15:35.600 --> 0:15:38.640 it in terms of concessions. But we weren't really expecting 0:15:38.720 --> 0:15:41.360 him to. But all that is to say to your point, yeah, 0:15:41.360 --> 0:15:43.040 it seems like the big win for she was just 0:15:43.400 --> 0:15:46.560 you know, portraying stable, US sanitized, which is also what 0:15:46.640 --> 0:15:47.720 President Biden wanted. 0:15:47.800 --> 0:15:48.480 But then some. 0:15:49.600 --> 0:15:54.640 Businesses have legitimate concerns if they do actually operate in China. 0:15:54.680 --> 0:15:57.800 I mean, I think we've seen like local protectionism, you know, 0:15:57.920 --> 0:16:01.440 regulator environment was pretty unpredictable, and then you have crackdowns 0:16:01.560 --> 0:16:05.040 based on national security concerns. Jennifer. Has President She or 0:16:05.160 --> 0:16:07.600 people around him been able to allay some of those 0:16:07.640 --> 0:16:10.840 fears to make sure that foreign direct investment comes back 0:16:10.880 --> 0:16:11.640 into the country. 0:16:12.840 --> 0:16:14.560 I don't think we're there yet, and I think part 0:16:14.560 --> 0:16:17.880 of the challenges that foreign businesses and investors are carrying 0:16:17.920 --> 0:16:21.360 two different messages coming out of Beijing. You know, there's 0:16:21.400 --> 0:16:24.920 the message that is really, as she did last night, 0:16:25.040 --> 0:16:29.080 quite explicitly, China is open for business. China welcomes foreign investors, 0:16:29.880 --> 0:16:32.800 and that's been really consistently over the past few months. 0:16:33.040 --> 0:16:35.200 But at the same time, what they are seeing in 0:16:35.280 --> 0:16:40.760 terms of actual policies is a continued you know, continuation 0:16:40.960 --> 0:16:45.560 of national security concerns trumping economic concerns, and so I 0:16:45.560 --> 0:16:48.560 think from their perspective that still leads to an uncertain 0:16:48.640 --> 0:16:51.240 environment because you're never really sure which message is going 0:16:51.280 --> 0:16:53.800 to take prominence at that moment in time. 0:16:55.240 --> 0:16:56.200 I just state the obvious. 0:16:56.240 --> 0:16:58.400 I mean, the UK has skin in this game, right, 0:16:58.480 --> 0:17:03.080 I mean, America and China are the first and second 0:17:03.600 --> 0:17:06.840 biggest in terms of our bilateral trade, two way trade. 0:17:07.040 --> 0:17:09.720 But you can see it in James Cleverly, who was 0:17:09.760 --> 0:17:12.680 our Foreign secretary and now he's our Home Secretary, but 0:17:12.840 --> 0:17:16.320 he went to China and became the first to get 0:17:16.400 --> 0:17:20.240 to visit China in five years. Partly because this kind 0:17:20.280 --> 0:17:23.199 of double think that loads of countries are trying to do, 0:17:23.240 --> 0:17:25.400 and we've seen it with Biden in the last twenty 0:17:25.400 --> 0:17:29.360 four hours, trying to on the one hand demonstrate they 0:17:29.400 --> 0:17:32.439 know the need for caution domestic for domestic political reasons 0:17:32.440 --> 0:17:35.119 but also national security reasons. On the other hand, it 0:17:35.200 --> 0:17:39.800 is big economic fry and so you have to keep 0:17:39.840 --> 0:17:41.280 that kind of interaction going. 0:17:42.440 --> 0:17:44.119 It is difficult politically in the UK. 0:17:44.040 --> 0:17:45.679 As well as it is in America though, you know, 0:17:45.720 --> 0:17:49.960 you can see already the reaction to David cameron appointment 0:17:50.080 --> 0:17:55.280 as the new Foreign Secretary, that concern and worry about 0:17:56.000 --> 0:17:59.160 his period eight years ago now of a golden age 0:17:59.240 --> 0:18:03.480 in China, U K relationships and people feeling that a 0:18:03.480 --> 0:18:04.520 lot has changed since then. 0:18:04.800 --> 0:18:06.920 But I feel like he's also kept some times right 0:18:06.920 --> 0:18:08.960 with China, and so I wonder whether they were Cameron, Yeah, 0:18:09.040 --> 0:18:11.560 David Cameron, and so I don't know what again I saw. 0:18:11.640 --> 0:18:13.399 I mean, was it the People's Daily or one of 0:18:13.440 --> 0:18:16.040 the one of the Chinese newspapers controlled by the Communist Party, 0:18:16.040 --> 0:18:18.919 like they all are celebrating his returners foreign sectary sort 0:18:18.920 --> 0:18:23.000 of indicating warmer relations to come with Britain teams. With 0:18:23.080 --> 0:18:26.280 this summit in San Francisco, it feels like we're in 0:18:26.320 --> 0:18:29.840 a very different place now than we were under Trump, 0:18:29.880 --> 0:18:31.480 for sure, but in the last or at least for 0:18:31.480 --> 0:18:32.159 the last few. 0:18:32.040 --> 0:18:34.600 Years, well, we are in a different position. But I 0:18:34.600 --> 0:18:38.239 think that probably happened David Cameron regardless. I think we 0:18:38.240 --> 0:18:40.720 were already inching that way with the James Coverly visit, 0:18:40.880 --> 0:18:44.000 and you've obviously we saw the Chinese invited to the 0:18:44.040 --> 0:18:45.840 AI summit in the UK. 0:18:46.560 --> 0:18:48.800 What is it now, two weeks ago? Whatever was? 0:18:49.040 --> 0:18:50.840 But so I think we were going that way anyway, 0:18:50.840 --> 0:18:53.040 and I think if you listen to the UK government 0:18:53.160 --> 0:18:55.640 talking about it now, they're quite robust in. 0:18:55.720 --> 0:18:58.159 Their sort of a third way. Really that's the only 0:18:58.200 --> 0:18:58.560 way you can. 0:18:58.720 --> 0:19:01.280 You know, it's not kind of sort of euphoria and 0:19:01.320 --> 0:19:05.000 pub visits of She's visit to the UK during David 0:19:05.040 --> 0:19:09.960 Cameron's early prime ministership now around twenty ten, which started 0:19:09.960 --> 0:19:12.280 in twenty ten. But so it's not that kind of 0:19:13.400 --> 0:19:16.600 you know, su uplands. But it's also a very pragmatic 0:19:16.640 --> 0:19:19.199 I suppose that's a keyword. Pragmatic sense that you know, 0:19:19.240 --> 0:19:22.000 we need we need to continue trading and interacting, but 0:19:22.080 --> 0:19:25.159 also you know, not just bread and butter and money. 0:19:25.200 --> 0:19:28.919 We need on climate change, on Ukraine and AI and 0:19:28.960 --> 0:19:31.200 a host of issues you need, you need to engage 0:19:31.240 --> 0:19:31.680 with China. 0:19:32.080 --> 0:19:35.520 Jennifer, what is the economic then outcome of all of this? 0:19:35.560 --> 0:19:38.200 And at Bloomberg Economics, do we see the dial moving 0:19:38.240 --> 0:19:41.360 at all with some of the thawings that we've kind 0:19:41.359 --> 0:19:44.720 of talked about and since this week perhaps helped down 0:19:44.760 --> 0:19:47.040 the line with a bit more effort from the UK 0:19:47.280 --> 0:19:50.280 and maybe by down the trap perhaps the Opini Union. 0:19:50.600 --> 0:19:53.840 Are we going to see the global economy benefit from 0:19:53.880 --> 0:19:55.960 these sorts of big geo political moments. 0:19:56.720 --> 0:19:59.520 I think that there will be a certain warming effector 0:19:59.600 --> 0:20:02.480 company its restoring effect, that this meeting will have given 0:20:02.600 --> 0:20:06.200 the positive vibes coming out of it. I think the 0:20:06.280 --> 0:20:09.240 only caution I would urge is that we're not seeing 0:20:09.240 --> 0:20:11.800 any fundamental shift in how these two countries are approaching 0:20:11.840 --> 0:20:15.320 each other, And in particular, it seems pretty clear President 0:20:15.440 --> 0:20:18.280 she went in with a message for President Biden about 0:20:18.840 --> 0:20:23.280 US technological and economic policy towards China that he've used 0:20:23.320 --> 0:20:28.000 this problematic and Biden seemed to reinforce that the administration 0:20:28.160 --> 0:20:29.520 is not going to change its to birch So I 0:20:29.560 --> 0:20:32.119 don't think we're likely to see any major changes in 0:20:32.640 --> 0:20:35.720 how the US actually deals with China economically or China's 0:20:35.760 --> 0:20:40.119 access to key technology. But I do think that again, 0:20:40.560 --> 0:20:43.120