1 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,360 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch us 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,560 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 3 00:00:07,680 --> 00:00:10,760 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business app, or listening on 4 00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:12,800 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 5 00:00:13,320 --> 00:00:17,279 Speaker 2: We thank you and welcome you to the Wednesday edition 6 00:00:17,360 --> 00:00:20,120 Speaker 2: of Bloomberg Sound On. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. It's 7 00:00:20,120 --> 00:00:22,360 Speaker 2: good to see it on the radio, on the satellite, 8 00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:24,440 Speaker 2: and on YouTube. You can find us there right now 9 00:00:24,480 --> 00:00:30,080 Speaker 2: search Bloomberg Global News because I'm confused. And if you 10 00:00:30,160 --> 00:00:32,159 Speaker 2: listen to this broadcast from time to time, you know 11 00:00:32,240 --> 00:00:37,440 Speaker 2: that's not unusual as we talk about new deals on 12 00:00:37,960 --> 00:00:41,320 Speaker 2: top line spending levels that are identical to the deals 13 00:00:41,360 --> 00:00:45,960 Speaker 2: we saw back in June. When we have contempt hearings, 14 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:49,960 Speaker 2: in this case for the son of a president and 15 00:00:50,000 --> 00:00:53,720 Speaker 2: he actually shows up. That happened today. We were going 16 00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:55,720 Speaker 2: to talk to Michael Zeldon about Donald Trump, and we're 17 00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:57,720 Speaker 2: going to do that in a moment. But who would 18 00:00:57,720 --> 00:00:59,720 Speaker 2: have thought this would take place? Maybe you saw it 19 00:00:59,720 --> 00:01:07,440 Speaker 2: coming Oversight Committee hearing holding Hunter Biden in contempt for 20 00:01:07,560 --> 00:01:10,839 Speaker 2: not showing up to a deposition that he actually showed 21 00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:13,080 Speaker 2: up for. They wanted to do it behind closed doors. 22 00:01:13,080 --> 00:01:18,320 Speaker 2: This starts to get very complicated. Nancy Mace couldn't believe 23 00:01:18,360 --> 00:01:23,039 Speaker 2: it when he walked in. The representative on the Republican 24 00:01:23,120 --> 00:01:25,920 Speaker 2: side of the dais here had it out with Jared Moscowitz, 25 00:01:25,959 --> 00:01:27,679 Speaker 2: the Democrat. This is just a taste of what. 26 00:01:27,560 --> 00:01:27,920 Speaker 1: It was like. 27 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:32,000 Speaker 3: You're the epitome of white privilege, coming into the Oversight Committee, 28 00:01:32,000 --> 00:01:36,280 Speaker 3: spitting in our face, ignoring a congressional subpoena to be deposed. 29 00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:37,680 Speaker 4: What are you afraid of? 30 00:01:37,760 --> 00:01:41,240 Speaker 2: You have no balls to come up here, mister chairman, 31 00:01:41,280 --> 00:01:46,360 Speaker 2: point of inquiry, Mister Chairman, if the General, if the 32 00:01:46,400 --> 00:01:48,360 Speaker 2: General lady wants to hear from Hunter Biden, we can 33 00:01:48,400 --> 00:01:49,160 Speaker 2: hear from him right now. 34 00:01:49,440 --> 00:01:50,280 Speaker 5: Chairman, Let's take. 35 00:01:50,160 --> 00:01:54,920 Speaker 2: A vote and hear from utter Biden. What are you afraid? 36 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:55,360 Speaker 1: Order? 37 00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:06,400 Speaker 2: And that's just how it started. I'm still not sure though, 38 00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:08,960 Speaker 2: if you show up, how that means he didn't show up. 39 00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:11,639 Speaker 2: But maybe Michael Zelden can help us. I've got a 40 00:02:11,680 --> 00:02:14,919 Speaker 2: lot of questions for Michael. Of course, former federal prosecutor, 41 00:02:15,160 --> 00:02:19,440 Speaker 2: former special counselor Robert Muller while at the DOJ. Michael, 42 00:02:19,440 --> 00:02:20,920 Speaker 2: you've been on my mind and it's great to see you. 43 00:02:20,919 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 2: I'm glad that you could come back to join us 44 00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:24,840 Speaker 2: here early in twenty twenty four, because, boy, this is 45 00:02:24,880 --> 00:02:28,200 Speaker 2: going to be a year, and not the least of 46 00:02:28,240 --> 00:02:31,440 Speaker 2: which is because of this Hunter Biden case. I want 47 00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:33,200 Speaker 2: to ask you about Donald Trump, but can you make 48 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:35,359 Speaker 2: sense out of this? Can you hold someone in contempt 49 00:02:36,080 --> 00:02:37,680 Speaker 2: for a deposition they showed up for? 50 00:02:39,000 --> 00:02:43,000 Speaker 5: Yeah, you can. You shouldn't, but you can. The proposition 51 00:02:43,040 --> 00:02:46,480 Speaker 5: here is they gave him a subpoena to appear behind 52 00:02:46,480 --> 00:02:50,760 Speaker 5: closed doors for a deposition. He says, I'm not showing 53 00:02:50,800 --> 00:02:53,400 Speaker 5: up behind closed doors. I'm only showing up in public 54 00:02:53,440 --> 00:02:57,360 Speaker 5: because I don't trust you. Well. People who receive subpoenas 55 00:02:57,360 --> 00:03:01,840 Speaker 5: don't get determine the proto calls by which the testimony 56 00:03:01,960 --> 00:03:06,320 Speaker 5: is taken. So that's sort of the pissing match, if 57 00:03:06,360 --> 00:03:09,320 Speaker 5: you will, between the two sides. The question is, really, 58 00:03:10,880 --> 00:03:14,360 Speaker 5: why are they even bothering to subpoena him in the 59 00:03:14,400 --> 00:03:18,800 Speaker 5: first place? What value do they see? When if I 60 00:03:18,919 --> 00:03:22,400 Speaker 5: were his lawyer and he's represented ably by Abby Lowell, 61 00:03:22,600 --> 00:03:24,760 Speaker 5: I would just say I'm taking the Fifth Amendment with 62 00:03:24,960 --> 00:03:26,920 Speaker 5: any question that you have to ask me in private, 63 00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:30,160 Speaker 5: because I don't trust you guys, and I've been indicted 64 00:03:30,160 --> 00:03:34,120 Speaker 5: in California, and I'm not about to jeopardize my legal 65 00:03:34,160 --> 00:03:37,000 Speaker 5: case there by answering any questions that you guys have here. 66 00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:40,440 Speaker 5: So it's really political theater. This is not really about 67 00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:44,560 Speaker 5: truth gathering or fact finding. It's just about show. 68 00:03:47,280 --> 00:03:49,680 Speaker 2: Well, that's a pretty clear answer, I suspect, but it 69 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 2: won't stop the process to your point. In terms of 70 00:03:52,480 --> 00:03:57,200 Speaker 2: that indictment. Though, in California, he's heading for la next. Apparently, 71 00:03:57,240 --> 00:03:59,520 Speaker 2: what's in store for Hunter Biden when he gets. 72 00:03:59,280 --> 00:04:04,720 Speaker 5: There ultimately a trial unless they work out a plea deal. 73 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:08,720 Speaker 5: He's facing tax charges out there that are serious. He 74 00:04:09,280 --> 00:04:13,520 Speaker 5: failed to report income and failed to file timely his 75 00:04:13,680 --> 00:04:19,479 Speaker 5: tax returns worth over a million dollars in lost tax revenue. 76 00:04:19,600 --> 00:04:22,599 Speaker 5: He did ultimately pay it back, but you know, the 77 00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:24,599 Speaker 5: fact that you sort of returned the money that you 78 00:04:24,640 --> 00:04:27,640 Speaker 5: stole from the bank doesn't get you necessarily off the 79 00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:30,840 Speaker 5: hook for bank robbery. It may get you a plea 80 00:04:30,920 --> 00:04:35,000 Speaker 5: bargain to something less than bank robbery, but nonetheless, these 81 00:04:35,000 --> 00:04:37,960 Speaker 5: are serious charges and he has to account for it. 82 00:04:38,080 --> 00:04:41,320 Speaker 5: He has said that it was because of his drug addiction, 83 00:04:41,440 --> 00:04:46,280 Speaker 5: and I understand, well, the problems of drug addiction in 84 00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:50,960 Speaker 5: family members, and it's complicated stuff, but that's not a 85 00:04:51,040 --> 00:04:55,719 Speaker 5: defense unless you're pleading some sort of diminished mental capacity. 86 00:04:56,160 --> 00:04:59,440 Speaker 5: I think that he has to figure out what is 87 00:04:59,480 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 5: the best thing for him to do. I think the 88 00:05:01,440 --> 00:05:04,039 Speaker 5: best thing for him to do is probably work out 89 00:05:04,040 --> 00:05:06,479 Speaker 5: some sort of plea like they tried to do when 90 00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:10,719 Speaker 5: he was facing charges in Delaware, misdemeanor charges. But we'll 91 00:05:10,720 --> 00:05:15,039 Speaker 5: see now whether they prosecutors out in California or as 92 00:05:15,520 --> 00:05:19,279 Speaker 5: willing to compromise with him as Delaware special counsel laws. 93 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:23,720 Speaker 2: Well, Hudter Biden was the big moment today. Donald Trump's 94 00:05:23,720 --> 00:05:27,600 Speaker 2: moment came yesterday. Michael Zelden, this is really something as 95 00:05:27,600 --> 00:05:31,560 Speaker 2: he tests this idea of presidential immunity, and his legal 96 00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:36,480 Speaker 2: team got a fairly chillier reception from this three judge 97 00:05:37,080 --> 00:05:40,960 Speaker 2: appellate panel. This is what Axios is now calling Trump's 98 00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:45,760 Speaker 2: new Fifth Avenue moment. As his lawyer John Sower was 99 00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:49,240 Speaker 2: asked by one of the judges about this idea of well, 100 00:05:49,400 --> 00:05:50,200 Speaker 2: we'll let you listen. 101 00:05:50,360 --> 00:05:53,640 Speaker 3: Could a president who ordered seale team sets to assassinate 102 00:05:53,640 --> 00:05:55,320 Speaker 3: a political rival who was. 103 00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:58,760 Speaker 5: Not impeached, would he be subject to criminal prosecution. 104 00:06:00,080 --> 00:06:01,160 Speaker 6: Were impeached and convicted? 105 00:06:01,279 --> 00:06:04,120 Speaker 5: First, say, your answer is is. 106 00:06:04,040 --> 00:06:07,040 Speaker 6: That My answer is qualified. Yes, there's a political process 107 00:06:07,040 --> 00:06:09,320 Speaker 6: that have to occur under ours, the structure our constitution, 108 00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:11,920 Speaker 6: which will require impeachment and conviction by the Senate. 109 00:06:13,720 --> 00:06:17,320 Speaker 2: Imagine Seal Team six being used to assassinate a political rival. 110 00:06:17,360 --> 00:06:20,440 Speaker 2: Maybe you can imagine that. The idea here, though, Michael, 111 00:06:20,520 --> 00:06:24,200 Speaker 2: is that if not impeached and convicted, then you cannot 112 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:29,440 Speaker 2: in fact criminally prosecute a former president or a sitting president. 113 00:06:29,520 --> 00:06:31,360 Speaker 2: Is that how you understand this argument? Does it hold 114 00:06:31,400 --> 00:06:31,840 Speaker 2: any water? 115 00:06:33,240 --> 00:06:35,320 Speaker 5: That's how I understand the argument. I don't think it 116 00:06:35,360 --> 00:06:38,799 Speaker 5: holds any water. And in fact, in preparation for our conversation, 117 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:41,520 Speaker 5: I went back and read the Office of Legal Counsel 118 00:06:41,839 --> 00:06:46,120 Speaker 5: memoranda on these issues. Remember this sort of came up 119 00:06:46,160 --> 00:06:49,719 Speaker 5: in the Mueller investigation. Muller said he might have but 120 00:06:49,920 --> 00:06:54,159 Speaker 5: couldn't indict Trump or the stuff that he investigated, because 121 00:06:54,200 --> 00:06:57,000 Speaker 5: there is a memo that says you can't indict a 122 00:06:57,080 --> 00:07:00,240 Speaker 5: sitting president. But that memo goes on to say, of 123 00:07:00,279 --> 00:07:06,120 Speaker 5: course you can indict a former president, and the case 124 00:07:06,200 --> 00:07:09,120 Speaker 5: law is pretty clear on that. And so it's pretty 125 00:07:09,240 --> 00:07:14,000 Speaker 5: settled that the proposition that Trump is proposing is an 126 00:07:14,080 --> 00:07:18,120 Speaker 5: outlier and probably will not be sustained by the Court 127 00:07:18,120 --> 00:07:21,960 Speaker 5: of Appeals or even I think the Supreme Court. 128 00:07:23,080 --> 00:07:25,440 Speaker 2: Well, talk to me more about that, because a lot 129 00:07:25,480 --> 00:07:28,600 Speaker 2: of folks seem to think that's where this will be decided. Well, 130 00:07:28,680 --> 00:07:31,080 Speaker 2: will the Supreme Court take this up if it goes 131 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:31,400 Speaker 2: that far. 132 00:07:32,200 --> 00:07:34,600 Speaker 5: Yeah, So that's a great question. And I think the 133 00:07:34,640 --> 00:07:38,760 Speaker 5: answer to the question is it depends on the nature 134 00:07:39,360 --> 00:07:43,840 Speaker 5: of the order that the appellate Court issues. So if 135 00:07:43,840 --> 00:07:49,480 Speaker 5: this appellate Court gives a three to zero unanimous decision 136 00:07:50,120 --> 00:07:54,760 Speaker 5: forcefully suggesting that the notion of immunity for a former 137 00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:58,960 Speaker 5: president in criminal matters is absurd, then the Supreme Court 138 00:07:59,040 --> 00:08:01,760 Speaker 5: might say, you know what, we don't have to decide 139 00:08:01,800 --> 00:08:06,280 Speaker 5: this issue. We'll wait to a more complicated issue that 140 00:08:06,520 --> 00:08:10,600 Speaker 5: raises this question. But in this case, the proposition that 141 00:08:10,760 --> 00:08:16,400 Speaker 5: you're entitled to qualified immunity for inciting an insurrection is so, 142 00:08:16,880 --> 00:08:19,320 Speaker 5: you know, sort of much a no brainer that we're 143 00:08:19,320 --> 00:08:21,240 Speaker 5: going to just rely on the Court of Appeals and 144 00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:25,760 Speaker 5: leave it there. And remember they ask Special Council Smith 145 00:08:25,960 --> 00:08:28,640 Speaker 5: asked the Supreme Court to take this straight away to 146 00:08:28,720 --> 00:08:31,400 Speaker 5: skip this middle ground and the court said no, no, no, 147 00:08:31,520 --> 00:08:33,920 Speaker 5: we want to hear from this middle ground court. And 148 00:08:33,920 --> 00:08:37,160 Speaker 5: so if this middle ground court gives them a very strong, 149 00:08:37,640 --> 00:08:40,240 Speaker 5: analyzed decision, they might say, we don't need to do it. 150 00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:42,840 Speaker 5: They got it right. Let's get this case to trial 151 00:08:43,400 --> 00:08:45,440 Speaker 5: and then we'll have a trial in March. 152 00:08:46,679 --> 00:08:49,160 Speaker 2: So it sounds like that's what you see happening, the 153 00:08:49,160 --> 00:08:51,440 Speaker 2: skepticism on this three judge panel. If this goes all 154 00:08:51,480 --> 00:08:54,319 Speaker 2: the way up to the full blown DC Appeals Court, 155 00:08:54,640 --> 00:08:56,800 Speaker 2: do you assume those judges will feel the same way. 156 00:08:56,840 --> 00:08:59,600 Speaker 2: I think that's what you're suggesting, and that means the 157 00:08:59,640 --> 00:09:02,120 Speaker 2: trial does begin long before the election. 158 00:09:03,200 --> 00:09:03,440 Speaker 1: Yeah. 159 00:09:03,640 --> 00:09:09,360 Speaker 5: So the rights that Trump has are to one. Let's 160 00:09:09,400 --> 00:09:11,480 Speaker 5: say he loses three to nothing in this court, or 161 00:09:11,520 --> 00:09:13,800 Speaker 5: even two to one in this court. He can then 162 00:09:13,920 --> 00:09:17,880 Speaker 5: go he can seek a review of that decision by 163 00:09:18,160 --> 00:09:21,840 Speaker 5: the full members of that same court. I think they're eleven, 164 00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:27,040 Speaker 5: and that's called en banc review total review, and that's discretionated. 165 00:09:27,040 --> 00:09:29,000 Speaker 5: Those eleven judges can say you, no, no, we don't 166 00:09:29,040 --> 00:09:32,200 Speaker 5: need to hear this. The three judge panel got it right. 167 00:09:32,679 --> 00:09:35,480 Speaker 5: Then that will closed as that. Then he can file 168 00:09:35,559 --> 00:09:38,400 Speaker 5: what's called a writ of Circiori or a quest by 169 00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:41,319 Speaker 5: the Supreme Court to hear it, and the Supreme Court 170 00:09:41,360 --> 00:09:44,040 Speaker 5: can say yes or no to that. If they say yes, 171 00:09:44,920 --> 00:09:47,040 Speaker 5: and let's say that makes it to them sometime in 172 00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:52,200 Speaker 5: early February, then I think the March trial date is unlikely, 173 00:09:52,640 --> 00:09:55,440 Speaker 5: but it doesn't mean that it can't happen in May 174 00:09:55,559 --> 00:09:59,280 Speaker 5: or June. If the Supreme Court acts quickly as they 175 00:09:59,280 --> 00:10:01,920 Speaker 5: did in the Nixon Watergate tapes, and they have that 176 00:10:02,120 --> 00:10:02,640 Speaker 5: power to. 177 00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:06,560 Speaker 2: Do that, wow, that would be the one trial though 178 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:08,280 Speaker 2: you see happening before the election, right. 179 00:10:09,720 --> 00:10:13,800 Speaker 5: I think it's most likely because Eileen Cannon, the judge 180 00:10:13,800 --> 00:10:16,240 Speaker 5: who has the Maro a Lago case, seems to be 181 00:10:16,280 --> 00:10:20,600 Speaker 5: slow walking it a bit. Now if this case gets delayed, 182 00:10:20,960 --> 00:10:24,480 Speaker 5: If there is a long delay in this case, Eileen 183 00:10:25,280 --> 00:10:28,800 Speaker 5: Cannon could set her trial date in May and go 184 00:10:28,840 --> 00:10:30,880 Speaker 5: forward with it. But I expect that Trump will raise 185 00:10:30,960 --> 00:10:34,719 Speaker 5: the same immunity in that case too, So I think 186 00:10:34,880 --> 00:10:37,680 Speaker 5: we need to get an answer on immunity before we 187 00:10:37,760 --> 00:10:41,040 Speaker 5: know what the trial schedules are, both in Mario Lago 188 00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:42,800 Speaker 5: case and in January sixth case. 189 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:47,319 Speaker 2: Well, it's great to talk to you. Good to see you, Michael, Zelden. 190 00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:50,319 Speaker 2: We thank you former federal prosecutor Michael Zelden with us 191 00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:54,120 Speaker 2: once again here on Bloomberg as we assemble our panel 192 00:10:54,400 --> 00:10:56,640 Speaker 2: can't wait to hear what they think. Rick Davis is 193 00:10:56,679 --> 00:10:59,680 Speaker 2: with us, of course, Republican strategist, Bloomberg Politics contributor, joined 194 00:10:59,679 --> 00:11:03,520 Speaker 2: today by Democratic analyst Kaitlyn Lagaki at Four Corners of 195 00:11:03,640 --> 00:11:07,160 Speaker 2: Public Affairs. Rick, We've talked a lot about the idea 196 00:11:07,200 --> 00:11:10,640 Speaker 2: of Donald Trump's spending the bulk of his campaign in 197 00:11:10,720 --> 00:11:13,640 Speaker 2: a courtroom, and it is sounding like, after we talked 198 00:11:13,640 --> 00:11:16,280 Speaker 2: to Michael Zelden, that that's exactly what's going to happen. 199 00:11:16,360 --> 00:11:18,600 Speaker 2: He'll be back in New York tomorrow for the civil trial. 200 00:11:18,960 --> 00:11:20,319 Speaker 2: How do you do both at once? 201 00:11:21,360 --> 00:11:23,960 Speaker 7: Yeah, Well, I mean he's making that decision. I mean, 202 00:11:24,200 --> 00:11:27,200 Speaker 7: yesterday's appearance was totally elective on his part. He didn't 203 00:11:27,240 --> 00:11:30,160 Speaker 7: have to go there, he didn't do anything, and he 204 00:11:30,200 --> 00:11:31,840 Speaker 7: could have been in an Iowa campaign. He could have 205 00:11:31,840 --> 00:11:34,600 Speaker 7: been a New Hampshire campaigning. Look, if he loses New Hampshire, 206 00:11:34,880 --> 00:11:36,240 Speaker 7: his campaign is going to look at him, go, what 207 00:11:36,280 --> 00:11:38,240 Speaker 7: the heck were we doing sitting in a courtroom when 208 00:11:38,240 --> 00:11:41,280 Speaker 7: we could have been in the state campaigning. So I 209 00:11:41,360 --> 00:11:44,200 Speaker 7: feel for those guys. I mean, they're sharing, you know, 210 00:11:44,400 --> 00:11:47,360 Speaker 7: the former president with the legal system, and that that 211 00:11:47,400 --> 00:11:50,200 Speaker 7: can't be a very you know, constructive way to spend 212 00:11:50,240 --> 00:11:53,640 Speaker 7: time in the middle of an election. So it's his 213 00:11:53,800 --> 00:11:56,319 Speaker 7: choice in many of these cases, and he chooses to 214 00:11:56,440 --> 00:12:00,800 Speaker 7: not campaign and to defend his rights as a plaintiff. 215 00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:04,520 Speaker 2: So Caitlin, at what point does that become advantage Biden, 216 00:12:04,600 --> 00:12:07,080 Speaker 2: assuming that these are the nominees, and where I guess 217 00:12:07,080 --> 00:12:09,439 Speaker 2: I shouldn't assume that, but let's say it's a rematch, 218 00:12:09,840 --> 00:12:12,760 Speaker 2: At what point does this start to count against Donald 219 00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:15,240 Speaker 2: Trump when he enters a general election field. 220 00:12:17,000 --> 00:12:21,200 Speaker 4: I mean, it immediately reminds moderate and independent voters of 221 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:24,559 Speaker 4: the chaos that he created while he was president. So, 222 00:12:24,960 --> 00:12:28,240 Speaker 4: you know, while he believes that going to court every 223 00:12:28,320 --> 00:12:33,280 Speaker 4: day and presenting himself as a victim of political persecution 224 00:12:33,640 --> 00:12:37,000 Speaker 4: works to his benefit, I think where it really, you know, 225 00:12:37,120 --> 00:12:40,720 Speaker 4: helps Biden is that it just, you know, time warps 226 00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:44,000 Speaker 4: everyone back four years to what we went through with 227 00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:48,160 Speaker 4: the chaos and the legal issues, and reminds anyone who's 228 00:12:48,200 --> 00:12:53,320 Speaker 4: even remotely open to either candidate what they should expect 229 00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:55,040 Speaker 4: for the next four years out of Donald Trump. 230 00:12:56,280 --> 00:12:58,640 Speaker 2: In the meantime, though, Rick, it seems like it's advantage 231 00:12:58,679 --> 00:13:01,040 Speaker 2: Trump as long as it it's the primary field, the 232 00:13:01,040 --> 00:13:04,000 Speaker 2: Republican primary field that we're talking about. Or do you 233 00:13:04,040 --> 00:13:06,680 Speaker 2: see that start to flip at some point in the 234 00:13:06,679 --> 00:13:07,560 Speaker 2: next couple of months. 235 00:13:08,720 --> 00:13:12,720 Speaker 7: Well, there's no question that Trump's campaign started to improve 236 00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:17,160 Speaker 7: once Bragg in New York indicted him, and you saw 237 00:13:17,320 --> 00:13:20,719 Speaker 7: an increase in fundraising and he became the victim. As 238 00:13:20,920 --> 00:13:24,200 Speaker 7: Caitlin said, this is his entire campaign message. I am 239 00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:27,560 Speaker 7: a victim. You're victims. We're all defending each other here. 240 00:13:27,679 --> 00:13:31,400 Speaker 7: You know, they're really coming after you. And it's all 241 00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:35,800 Speaker 7: very populist and very outsider and very anti government. So 242 00:13:36,679 --> 00:13:38,800 Speaker 7: I don't think that's ever going to change. And the 243 00:13:38,800 --> 00:13:41,360 Speaker 7: fact that he gets a stage to do that, you know, 244 00:13:41,440 --> 00:13:44,079 Speaker 7: in a courtroom where he can walk out and give 245 00:13:44,080 --> 00:13:46,840 Speaker 7: his talking points of the day in front of a 246 00:13:46,880 --> 00:13:50,199 Speaker 7: massive crowd of reporters, you know, that's just as good 247 00:13:50,240 --> 00:13:52,319 Speaker 7: to him as a rally and a lot cheaper. 248 00:13:54,760 --> 00:13:56,480 Speaker 2: Well how about that the king of free media, There 249 00:13:56,520 --> 00:13:59,120 Speaker 2: is something to be said for that, I suppose, Caitlin, 250 00:13:59,160 --> 00:14:01,080 Speaker 2: because he's going to end up leading the newscast every 251 00:14:01,080 --> 00:14:04,679 Speaker 2: time he shows up in a courtroom, he. 252 00:14:04,840 --> 00:14:07,319 Speaker 4: Is, although you know, we've already seen him run into 253 00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:10,760 Speaker 4: issues related to gag orders and you know in some 254 00:14:10,800 --> 00:14:13,920 Speaker 4: of his other trials, and so I wouldn't you know, 255 00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:16,520 Speaker 4: if that is their entire strategy, then I think that 256 00:14:17,040 --> 00:14:18,920 Speaker 4: they should at least have a plan to be in place, 257 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:22,640 Speaker 4: because I can't imagine that, especially judges in the DC 258 00:14:22,760 --> 00:14:26,000 Speaker 4: circuit are going to have a high tolerance for those shenanigans. 259 00:14:26,840 --> 00:14:29,560 Speaker 2: Well, part of the strategy apparently includes a return to 260 00:14:29,840 --> 00:14:34,640 Speaker 2: Fox News tonight, counterprogramming the final GOP debate. We'll talk 261 00:14:34,640 --> 00:14:36,840 Speaker 2: about it next with the panel. This is Bloomberg. 262 00:14:38,160 --> 00:14:41,560 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the 263 00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:45,480 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 264 00:14:45,520 --> 00:14:48,840 Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 265 00:14:49,000 --> 00:14:51,840 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 266 00:14:51,880 --> 00:14:56,360 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 267 00:14:57,600 --> 00:15:01,760 Speaker 2: Last time Donald Trump appeared live on Fox News was 268 00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:07,520 Speaker 2: back in April of twenty twenty two, almost two years, 269 00:15:07,560 --> 00:15:10,360 Speaker 2: and it hasn't been the smoothest ride since then. He's 270 00:15:10,360 --> 00:15:13,160 Speaker 2: spent a lot of time criticizing the network, and tonight 271 00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:17,120 Speaker 2: will make his big returns ought to be interesting. Of course, 272 00:15:17,160 --> 00:15:20,600 Speaker 2: it's all part of counter programming the actual debate that's 273 00:15:20,640 --> 00:15:24,160 Speaker 2: taking place around the same time on CNN. That'll be 274 00:15:24,160 --> 00:15:26,680 Speaker 2: between Nicky Haley and rond De Santis. This is the 275 00:15:26,800 --> 00:15:32,640 Speaker 2: last throwdown before actual voting takes place, actual caucusing on Monday. 276 00:15:33,520 --> 00:15:36,040 Speaker 2: And look, Donald Trump could be on that stage if 277 00:15:36,120 --> 00:15:39,920 Speaker 2: he wanted to be, but not again. So this is 278 00:15:39,960 --> 00:15:42,600 Speaker 2: going to be an interesting exercise to see the former 279 00:15:42,640 --> 00:15:45,600 Speaker 2: governor of South Carolina and Nicky Haley and now the 280 00:15:45,640 --> 00:15:48,720 Speaker 2: governor of Florida, Ronda Santis, just the two of them 281 00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:50,560 Speaker 2: on stage. They're both going to get a lot of 282 00:15:50,600 --> 00:15:54,760 Speaker 2: time and presumably we'll have a chance to talk about 283 00:15:54,800 --> 00:15:59,600 Speaker 2: actual policy. What a concept. Let's reassemble the panel because 284 00:15:59,640 --> 00:16:00,920 Speaker 2: you know a lot of people are going to be 285 00:16:00,960 --> 00:16:04,280 Speaker 2: watching Trump for the fireworks. Rick Davis is with us, 286 00:16:04,280 --> 00:16:08,360 Speaker 2: of course, Bloomberg Politics contributor, Republican strategist Caitlin Legacki from 287 00:16:08,360 --> 00:16:13,520 Speaker 2: Four Corners Public Affairs is here too, Democratic analyst Rick. 288 00:16:13,560 --> 00:16:15,720 Speaker 2: It's going to be interesting another split screen night here, 289 00:16:15,720 --> 00:16:19,200 Speaker 2: and I wonder for the candidates themselves. The Trump Show 290 00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:21,800 Speaker 2: is its own thing, but for the candidates themselves, if 291 00:16:21,800 --> 00:16:23,920 Speaker 2: there's going to be any real opportunity to move the 292 00:16:23,920 --> 00:16:27,040 Speaker 2: needle here, yeah, I think. 293 00:16:27,000 --> 00:16:30,920 Speaker 7: There'll be an interesting debate between Nicki Haley and Ron 294 00:16:30,920 --> 00:16:32,920 Speaker 7: de Santists. Look, I mean they're running neck and neck 295 00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:36,400 Speaker 7: in Iowa for second place. We've all been talking about 296 00:16:36,520 --> 00:16:39,400 Speaker 7: the second place matter in Iowa this year, and I 297 00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:43,040 Speaker 7: think the conclusion is yes, certainly for Nicki Haley, and 298 00:16:43,360 --> 00:16:45,280 Speaker 7: it may be the only thing that sustains for Ondo 299 00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:49,000 Speaker 7: Santists beyond Iowa. So I think there are real stakes 300 00:16:49,400 --> 00:16:55,320 Speaker 7: tonight's debate. It's unfortunate that the real contest in this 301 00:16:55,400 --> 00:16:58,880 Speaker 7: case Nicki and Ron are going to be on CNN 302 00:16:59,160 --> 00:17:02,280 Speaker 7: and most of the Republican caucus goers, I promise you 303 00:17:02,320 --> 00:17:07,320 Speaker 7: we'll be watching the Fox News interview with Donald Trump 304 00:17:07,800 --> 00:17:10,760 Speaker 7: because that's what they watch every night. It's nothing special. 305 00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:16,240 Speaker 2: Well, then, I guess it's a pretty good strategy, Caitlin. 306 00:17:16,320 --> 00:17:18,800 Speaker 2: He's never had to show up at a debate. He 307 00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:23,280 Speaker 2: has held a commanding lead throughout the process, and we're 308 00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:25,960 Speaker 2: reminded by the New York Times this is his first 309 00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:30,439 Speaker 2: live interview on any major news network since that so 310 00:17:30,560 --> 00:17:34,600 Speaker 2: called town hall last May on CNN that got the 311 00:17:34,640 --> 00:17:38,119 Speaker 2: head of the network fired, and that was because Donald 312 00:17:38,160 --> 00:17:41,000 Speaker 2: Trump just ran all over the whole process. And I 313 00:17:41,040 --> 00:17:43,640 Speaker 2: suspect he will do the same tonight. What are these 314 00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:46,520 Speaker 2: folks going to see when they tune into Fox? Does 315 00:17:46,560 --> 00:17:49,120 Speaker 2: he take the opportunity to insult the network? 316 00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:50,880 Speaker 5: Oh? 317 00:17:50,920 --> 00:17:54,000 Speaker 4: I think he can't help himself. I think that's absolutely 318 00:17:54,040 --> 00:17:56,040 Speaker 4: what he's going to do. But I think he's also 319 00:17:57,000 --> 00:17:59,719 Speaker 4: doing this because he does see the numbers coming out 320 00:17:59,760 --> 00:18:02,320 Speaker 4: of New Hampshire. He does see Nicki Haley closing in 321 00:18:02,359 --> 00:18:06,000 Speaker 4: on him there, and he really needs to re establish 322 00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:09,080 Speaker 4: his leadership there. So what he's doing is actually pretty smart, 323 00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:13,720 Speaker 4: which is that, as Rick said, your average conservative, Caucasco 324 00:18:13,840 --> 00:18:16,040 Speaker 4: or primary voter in New Hampshire is going to be 325 00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:19,479 Speaker 4: watching Fox, and so he is owning all of that 326 00:18:19,560 --> 00:18:24,840 Speaker 4: oxygen while you know, Governor's Haley and DeSantis fight it 327 00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:28,160 Speaker 4: out for second place on a network that your average 328 00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:31,440 Speaker 4: Republican primary or voter or caucas Goo or just is 329 00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:32,280 Speaker 4: it going to be watching. 330 00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:36,000 Speaker 2: Well, it sounds to me like the field is set then, Rick. 331 00:18:36,040 --> 00:18:39,120 Speaker 2: As we head into Iowa, Nikki Haley, Ronda Santis aren't 332 00:18:39,119 --> 00:18:41,720 Speaker 2: going to have a breakout based on what happens tonight, right. 333 00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:45,200 Speaker 7: Yeah, I think tonight's see an end debate is more 334 00:18:45,240 --> 00:18:48,560 Speaker 7: about what ad goes up as a closing argument the 335 00:18:48,600 --> 00:18:53,240 Speaker 7: next morning, right. I mean, if somebody falters, if there's 336 00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:56,119 Speaker 7: a punch well landed on the job of one of 337 00:18:56,160 --> 00:18:59,240 Speaker 7: the other candidates, that could actually make it into the 338 00:18:59,280 --> 00:19:04,160 Speaker 7: weekend close. But otherwise, most Republicans aren' going to see 339 00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:07,360 Speaker 7: what happens on that CNN debate. Lots of Democrats will 340 00:19:07,359 --> 00:19:11,200 Speaker 7: watch it, but because I'm sure it's good theater. But yeah, 341 00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:14,320 Speaker 7: I think we've all agreed that once again, Donald Trump 342 00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:19,040 Speaker 7: gets the lifeline from Fox Media to give him something 343 00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:21,400 Speaker 7: to do. Any otherwise would be left out of the narrative. 344 00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:27,960 Speaker 2: Latest numbers coming from Trafalgar Group on the Iowa Republican 345 00:19:28,119 --> 00:19:33,280 Speaker 2: caucus Donald Trump fifty two and then you've got Nicki 346 00:19:33,320 --> 00:19:37,359 Speaker 2: Haley and Ron DeSantis tied at eighteen. So Donald Trump 347 00:19:37,400 --> 00:19:41,120 Speaker 2: has a thirty four point lead going into the caucus. 348 00:19:41,600 --> 00:19:44,320 Speaker 2: At this stage here, Caitlin an Seltzer and others would 349 00:19:44,359 --> 00:19:47,320 Speaker 2: tell you that that's a done deal. Will he win Iowa? 350 00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:49,280 Speaker 4: Oh of course? 351 00:19:49,400 --> 00:19:49,640 Speaker 1: Yeah. 352 00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:54,120 Speaker 4: I mean, anyone who's ever done. The Iowa caucus has 353 00:19:54,280 --> 00:19:57,000 Speaker 4: dreamed of a scenario where they're at fifty two percent. 354 00:19:57,040 --> 00:20:03,800 Speaker 4: It's unprecedented. So I think that's absolutely locked. The real 355 00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:07,239 Speaker 4: question is, how does this affect New Hampshire. Does this 356 00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:12,080 Speaker 4: kill Nicky Haley's momentum, or does this you know, basically 357 00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:16,520 Speaker 4: put the last nail in Ronda Santras's coffin, which would 358 00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:19,960 Speaker 4: give you know, theoretically Haley a clearer path in New Hampshire. 359 00:20:20,880 --> 00:20:23,280 Speaker 4: And so I agree that that's the whole ballgame for 360 00:20:23,720 --> 00:20:24,879 Speaker 4: what Iowa means. 361 00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:28,880 Speaker 2: Rick, I want you to take us to school on 362 00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:34,959 Speaker 2: something called momentum, which we talk about affectionately around this 363 00:20:35,040 --> 00:20:38,040 Speaker 2: time of the election cycle, but you've actually harnessed it, 364 00:20:38,080 --> 00:20:40,639 Speaker 2: You've actually realized it. When we look at the numbers 365 00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:45,199 Speaker 2: moving beyond Iowa and New Hampshire right now, all of 366 00:20:45,240 --> 00:20:49,080 Speaker 2: that could change immediately based on the performance that we 367 00:20:49,119 --> 00:20:52,440 Speaker 2: see specifically coming out of New Hampshire. I know you've 368 00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:54,600 Speaker 2: got your eyes on Nicki Haley, but talk about that 369 00:20:54,920 --> 00:20:57,240 Speaker 2: just kind of more in general, how she could turn 370 00:20:57,320 --> 00:21:01,560 Speaker 2: this around, how any candidate might based on momentum in 371 00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:02,600 Speaker 2: the first two states. 372 00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:07,400 Speaker 7: Yeah, I think people need to really understand the dynamic politically, right, 373 00:21:07,800 --> 00:21:11,160 Speaker 7: the Iowa caucus is an organizational nightmare. 374 00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:11,440 Speaker 1: Right. 375 00:21:11,480 --> 00:21:13,920 Speaker 7: It is not a primary. It doesn't have a lot 376 00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:17,399 Speaker 7: of people participate. In fact, considering how cold it's going 377 00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:20,200 Speaker 7: to be and how snowy it is in Iowa right now, 378 00:21:20,240 --> 00:21:22,480 Speaker 7: you've got to assume participation is going to be way down. 379 00:21:23,119 --> 00:21:26,000 Speaker 7: But that is usually what upsets the apple cart. In 380 00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:29,000 Speaker 7: other words, it hurts more people than it helps over time. 381 00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:32,640 Speaker 7: In New Hampshire, it is a true primary and everybody 382 00:21:32,640 --> 00:21:36,680 Speaker 7: can vote, right, it's an open primary, independence participate. Sometimes 383 00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:40,520 Speaker 7: as much as forty percent of the turnout on primary 384 00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:44,119 Speaker 7: day is non Republican. And so this is a chance 385 00:21:44,160 --> 00:21:47,200 Speaker 7: for people to really speak the first chance, and that 386 00:21:47,320 --> 00:21:50,760 Speaker 7: usually has a different outcome than Iowa, and that usually 387 00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:54,600 Speaker 7: is a lifeline to challengers, challengers like Nikki Haley in 388 00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:57,160 Speaker 7: this case, because you've got to remember Donald Trump's running 389 00:21:57,160 --> 00:21:59,480 Speaker 7: as an incumbent. None of these people should even be 390 00:21:59,520 --> 00:22:01,920 Speaker 7: close to running against an incumbent. I mean, you know, 391 00:22:02,240 --> 00:22:04,560 Speaker 7: Joe Biden's an incumbent running and he's in the sixty 392 00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:07,680 Speaker 7: percent and he's not even on the ballot. So this 393 00:22:07,880 --> 00:22:10,640 Speaker 7: is this is the chance that everybody has to try 394 00:22:10,680 --> 00:22:13,840 Speaker 7: and play catch up, and then it is all about momentum. 395 00:22:14,119 --> 00:22:16,879 Speaker 7: Every poll you've seen in South Carolina, Florida, the Super 396 00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:21,919 Speaker 7: Tuesday dates, they change overnight depending upon the outcome of 397 00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:23,520 Speaker 7: this race in New Hampshire. 398 00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:28,959 Speaker 2: I hope you heard what Rick said. They change overnight. 399 00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:32,320 Speaker 2: That's why it's comical that we're obsessing over polls nine 400 00:22:32,320 --> 00:22:35,439 Speaker 2: months ago, national polls, but even calls into question what 401 00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:39,119 Speaker 2: we're looking at here in the next month of voting. 402 00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:42,520 Speaker 2: Even Caitlin can Nicki Haley pull that off? 403 00:22:45,000 --> 00:22:47,760 Speaker 4: I mean, anything is possible in politics. I think one 404 00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:51,520 Speaker 4: of the things about the primary calendar that a lot 405 00:22:51,600 --> 00:22:54,840 Speaker 4: of folks don't appreciate is that all of these campaigns 406 00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:58,920 Speaker 4: have been spending the last year really focused on two 407 00:22:59,000 --> 00:23:04,600 Speaker 4: states maybe and where this really tests a campaign's ability 408 00:23:04,840 --> 00:23:09,000 Speaker 4: to function and organize is Let's say Nikki Haley comes 409 00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:12,439 Speaker 4: out of New Hampshire with an upset victory. She's going 410 00:23:12,520 --> 00:23:15,200 Speaker 4: to have a huge influx of money, but she's also 411 00:23:15,240 --> 00:23:17,399 Speaker 4: going to have to carry that momentum forward. Luckily, she 412 00:23:17,440 --> 00:23:20,600 Speaker 4: has South Carolina probably in her pocket. But then there's 413 00:23:20,680 --> 00:23:23,600 Speaker 4: all the Super Tuesday states where if you know your 414 00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:28,280 Speaker 4: campaign has not previously had the opportunity to build up 415 00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:32,600 Speaker 4: that staffing, build up that strategy. You're really playing whack 416 00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:35,120 Speaker 4: a mole and leap frogging from one state to the next, 417 00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:39,800 Speaker 4: and it's it's hard, but that's kind of why this 418 00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:42,359 Speaker 4: is so exciting and interesting, and it really is a 419 00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:44,240 Speaker 4: good test for who is going to be the best 420 00:23:44,280 --> 00:23:45,360 Speaker 4: general election candidate. 421 00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:50,080 Speaker 2: Fascinating what we're about to learn, and great analysis from 422 00:23:50,160 --> 00:23:51,800 Speaker 2: Rick and Caitlin. I'm glad you're both with us. 423 00:23:54,359 --> 00:23:57,880 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us 424 00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:01,880 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one eastern Howkwyburg dot com, the iHeartRadio 425 00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:04,679 Speaker 1: app and the Big Business app, or listen on demand 426 00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:06,280 Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. 427 00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:10,240 Speaker 2: Welcome to our two of sound On. I'm Joe Matthew 428 00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:12,720 Speaker 2: alongside Kaylee Lines. And it looks like we're getting ready 429 00:24:12,720 --> 00:24:15,920 Speaker 2: for the hearings already. Kaylee. It was right around this 430 00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:18,760 Speaker 2: time yesterday we got the statement from Walter Reeds that 431 00:24:18,960 --> 00:24:21,320 Speaker 2: kind of blew our minds about what had happened to 432 00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:24,119 Speaker 2: the Secretary of Defense. Prostate cancer was the answer, but 433 00:24:24,200 --> 00:24:26,480 Speaker 2: there was so much that we still didn't understand, and 434 00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:29,840 Speaker 2: they want answers on Capitol Hill now Mike Rogers House 435 00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:34,119 Speaker 2: Armed Services Committee in a letter says it's unacceptable that 436 00:24:34,200 --> 00:24:36,360 Speaker 2: the Department of Defense, the White House in Congress were 437 00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:40,640 Speaker 2: not informed of the Secretary's position or capacity, and they 438 00:24:40,680 --> 00:24:44,520 Speaker 2: are scheduling a hearing into this. So the inquiries underway. 439 00:24:44,600 --> 00:24:46,919 Speaker 3: Well, and of course the White House is acting as well. 440 00:24:47,280 --> 00:24:49,520 Speaker 3: The chief staff at the White House is now directed 441 00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:52,960 Speaker 3: all not just the Department, but everything in the cabinet essentially. 442 00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:54,400 Speaker 2: The say tolls well. 443 00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:56,399 Speaker 3: That the fact that this system wasn't in place already 444 00:24:56,400 --> 00:24:57,120 Speaker 3: blows my mind. 445 00:24:57,160 --> 00:24:57,560 Speaker 6: I mean, Joe. 446 00:24:57,640 --> 00:25:00,560 Speaker 3: The other thing about yesterday was as we learned the 447 00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:04,800 Speaker 3: news that prostate cancer is the reason for Secretary Austin's hospitalization, 448 00:25:04,960 --> 00:25:07,000 Speaker 3: So too, apparently did the White House, even though they 449 00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:10,240 Speaker 3: knew he was hospitalized days after the fact, Mine, they 450 00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:12,840 Speaker 3: didn't know either that it was prostate cancer he was 451 00:25:13,160 --> 00:25:15,600 Speaker 3: dealing with. And the lack of communication here I think 452 00:25:15,600 --> 00:25:17,280 Speaker 3: has baffled everyone, Congress included. 453 00:25:17,359 --> 00:25:20,320 Speaker 2: Well, that's for sure, he's still hospitalized. 454 00:25:19,720 --> 00:25:23,440 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, to our knowledge, although the prognosis, according 455 00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:24,680 Speaker 3: to Walter Reed, yes. 456 00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:27,200 Speaker 2: Of course we don't know what brought the severe pain 457 00:25:27,240 --> 00:25:30,040 Speaker 2: that sent him back to the hospital or frankly, much 458 00:25:30,080 --> 00:25:33,040 Speaker 2: else after that. Certainly when it comes to the line 459 00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:34,720 Speaker 2: of communication. That's why I wanted to talk to the 460 00:25:34,760 --> 00:25:38,920 Speaker 2: general about this, because I suspect he's got feelings about it. 461 00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:42,639 Speaker 2: General Mark Kimmitt retired Army General. Of course, with us 462 00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:44,639 Speaker 2: back on Bloomberg in general, it's good to see you. 463 00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:48,240 Speaker 2: How did this hit you when you first heard about it? 464 00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:52,159 Speaker 2: Were you surprised that there was not more protocol in place, 465 00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:55,520 Speaker 2: or at least protocol followed in this case. 466 00:25:56,680 --> 00:26:00,280 Speaker 6: Well, I think it's as the latter protocol not followed. Look, 467 00:26:00,280 --> 00:26:03,320 Speaker 6: I know Lloyd Austin, have known him for thirty five years. 468 00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:06,919 Speaker 6: Intensely private man. But in some cases you give up 469 00:26:06,960 --> 00:26:10,480 Speaker 6: that privacy when you take a position like Secretary Defense. 470 00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:13,760 Speaker 6: There are protocols. I remember in two thousand and eight 471 00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:17,240 Speaker 6: when I was at Department of Defense, Secretary Gates had 472 00:26:17,240 --> 00:26:19,679 Speaker 6: broken his arm in a slip at his quarters. The 473 00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:22,879 Speaker 6: next morning, I'm at a meeting with him. In a sling, 474 00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:27,920 Speaker 6: I'm briefing him. Photographer comes in takes a picture of 475 00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:34,200 Speaker 6: the secretary, completely functional, completely operational. It's a Secretary of 476 00:26:34,200 --> 00:26:37,639 Speaker 6: Defense and probably bored by the guy briefing in. But 477 00:26:37,720 --> 00:26:41,560 Speaker 6: that was information that got out quickly, and as a result, 478 00:26:41,960 --> 00:26:44,479 Speaker 6: nobody ever heard of this issue because it was handled 479 00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:48,320 Speaker 6: so well. This, in my mind was just mistakes of 480 00:26:48,440 --> 00:26:49,679 Speaker 6: not a comedy of errors. 481 00:26:51,600 --> 00:26:55,480 Speaker 3: Okay, but what's the consequence of these mistakes general? Is 482 00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:58,480 Speaker 3: this just frankly a bad look the idea that the 483 00:26:58,480 --> 00:27:01,480 Speaker 3: White House and the Pentagon are not communicating that protocol 484 00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:05,520 Speaker 3: wasn't for followed or was there real risk here given 485 00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:08,000 Speaker 3: that during this hospital say according to Walter Reed, he 486 00:27:08,080 --> 00:27:11,480 Speaker 3: hasn't actually been incapacitated, he hasn't gone under anesthesia or 487 00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:12,160 Speaker 3: anything like that. 488 00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:16,480 Speaker 6: I don't think there's any risk at all. There is 489 00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:21,199 Speaker 6: a procedure by which transfer of authority happens in this 490 00:27:21,320 --> 00:27:24,240 Speaker 6: case between the Secretary of Defense and the Deputy Sectary Defense, 491 00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:27,680 Speaker 6: very similar to what happens when the President goes under anesthesia. 492 00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:32,840 Speaker 6: So if there was a problem because that's because of 493 00:27:32,880 --> 00:27:36,720 Speaker 6: that transfer of authority to the deputy, because that's the 494 00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:39,240 Speaker 6: wrong person, well then you picked the wrong deputy. But 495 00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:44,040 Speaker 6: in fact, Secretary Hicks is eminently qualified to stand in 496 00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:45,600 Speaker 6: for the Secretary Defense. 497 00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:48,920 Speaker 2: Should she have been given a heads up. They found 498 00:27:49,000 --> 00:27:51,840 Speaker 2: Kathleen Hicks in Puerto Rico on vacation. I guess it's 499 00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:55,280 Speaker 2: a good thing that there would be US backhaul US 500 00:27:55,320 --> 00:27:57,640 Speaker 2: infrastructure there for her to do her job. But should 501 00:27:57,760 --> 00:28:02,480 Speaker 2: she had been allowed to go on vacation this was scheduled, Well. 502 00:28:02,480 --> 00:28:06,520 Speaker 6: Sure, because again, first of all, the Deputy Secretary travels 503 00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:09,560 Speaker 6: with a pretty extensive comm steam for this very reason 504 00:28:09,680 --> 00:28:13,800 Speaker 6: that if there's a need for her to take over, 505 00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:15,879 Speaker 6: that she's ready to do it on a moment's notice. 506 00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:19,119 Speaker 6: I used to do that when I was an assistant 507 00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:22,640 Speaker 6: to the Supreme Allied Commander in Europe. Huge comms package 508 00:28:23,320 --> 00:28:26,320 Speaker 6: it was formerly done handed over to her. She was ready. 509 00:28:26,600 --> 00:28:29,239 Speaker 6: The fact that she was in Puerto Rico shouldn't make 510 00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:31,359 Speaker 6: a difference. She could have been at fifty thousand feet 511 00:28:31,359 --> 00:28:36,280 Speaker 6: in an airplane. So this continuity of command is something 512 00:28:36,320 --> 00:28:40,400 Speaker 6: that's important, if not almost sacred, to the military. 513 00:28:42,000 --> 00:28:44,200 Speaker 3: Does it strike you as odd, General, that it took 514 00:28:44,320 --> 00:28:47,160 Speaker 3: days for the White House to learn this information, that 515 00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:49,360 Speaker 3: no one at the White House realized there hadn't been 516 00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:52,760 Speaker 3: communication with Austin for days. What is that signal about 517 00:28:52,960 --> 00:28:57,040 Speaker 3: the cooperation between the Pentagon and the other end of 518 00:28:57,080 --> 00:28:58,080 Speaker 3: Pennsylvania Avenue. 519 00:28:59,320 --> 00:29:02,560 Speaker 6: Well, I would say that it is rare that on 520 00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:05,920 Speaker 6: a daily Base, Secretary Defense calls the White House. On 521 00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:10,040 Speaker 6: the other hand, there are dozens of staff officers that 522 00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:12,400 Speaker 6: are talking to the White House, the State Department, and 523 00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:16,240 Speaker 6: other agencies every day. So the real question is did 524 00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:21,360 Speaker 6: that lack of conversation between Austin himself and the White 525 00:29:21,360 --> 00:29:25,520 Speaker 6: House affect the normal continuity of operations? And I would 526 00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:26,440 Speaker 6: say probably not. 527 00:29:28,760 --> 00:29:31,120 Speaker 2: How does this end, General, We've got a few other 528 00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:32,480 Speaker 2: things we want to ask you about, but I just 529 00:29:32,520 --> 00:29:34,480 Speaker 2: wonder what is going to come, for instance, of this 530 00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:37,840 Speaker 2: inquiry on Capitol Hill. Maybe new protocol that we're hearing 531 00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:39,680 Speaker 2: about from the White House. Well, they'll be a full 532 00:29:39,760 --> 00:29:41,920 Speaker 2: readout on what took place here. 533 00:29:43,200 --> 00:29:46,280 Speaker 6: Oh, I'm sure there. Well, that's the purpose of congressional investigations, 534 00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:48,440 Speaker 6: and I hope that there won't be a new protocol 535 00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:52,000 Speaker 6: but just a message of reinforcing the existing protocol that 536 00:29:52,040 --> 00:29:53,680 Speaker 6: has worked so well for years and years. 537 00:29:56,360 --> 00:29:59,040 Speaker 3: General, to switch gears here, you alluded to the idea 538 00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:00,920 Speaker 3: that this is obviously a time in which the US 539 00:30:00,920 --> 00:30:03,920 Speaker 3: hasn't meshed in many different conflicts around the world, including 540 00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:06,440 Speaker 3: of course what's happening in the Middle East. We know 541 00:30:06,800 --> 00:30:09,680 Speaker 3: overnight that the Huthies in the Red Sea have launched 542 00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:12,200 Speaker 3: an attack a scale at which we hadn't seen yet 543 00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:16,200 Speaker 3: at this point. Eighteen drones, three anti ship missiles, all 544 00:30:16,200 --> 00:30:19,280 Speaker 3: of those intercepted by US and UK forces. But we 545 00:30:19,360 --> 00:30:21,760 Speaker 3: understand here at Bloomberg that the US is now considering 546 00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:25,560 Speaker 3: retaliation for that. What would appropriate retaliation look like? 547 00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:29,720 Speaker 6: Well, look, it should be a comprehensive approach. We shouldn't 548 00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:32,560 Speaker 6: rush into this blindly, but candidly, I think we've been 549 00:30:33,200 --> 00:30:38,000 Speaker 6: preparing these options for quite some time. I think the 550 00:30:38,040 --> 00:30:42,240 Speaker 6: real question, and the only question for Central Command and 551 00:30:42,280 --> 00:30:45,400 Speaker 6: the other warfighting headquarters is do we wait until a 552 00:30:45,520 --> 00:30:48,680 Speaker 6: ship gets hit and the crew possibly injured, or do 553 00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:52,640 Speaker 6: we take a preemptive strike knowing that they're going to 554 00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:56,720 Speaker 6: continue to fight, or tell something drastic is done. So 555 00:30:56,800 --> 00:30:59,120 Speaker 6: I think all I would say at this point is 556 00:30:59,240 --> 00:31:02,520 Speaker 6: we get the right in the command positions. Let's wait 557 00:31:02,560 --> 00:31:05,120 Speaker 6: to see what happens. But I have no doubt that 558 00:31:05,200 --> 00:31:08,600 Speaker 6: those radar sites that are directing some of these operations 559 00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:11,080 Speaker 6: will be the first to go. If there is that 560 00:31:11,160 --> 00:31:17,040 Speaker 6: tough decision to send an armed capability into Yemen to 561 00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:18,560 Speaker 6: wipe out their capabilities. 562 00:31:19,720 --> 00:31:22,120 Speaker 2: What capability would that require? 563 00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:22,600 Speaker 1: General? 564 00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:24,680 Speaker 2: What would that look like, I'm assuming we're not talking 565 00:31:24,680 --> 00:31:25,840 Speaker 2: about boots on the ground. 566 00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:29,120 Speaker 6: Oh no, no, you know, we can do this with 567 00:31:29,240 --> 00:31:33,400 Speaker 6: cruise missiles, we can do this with jade M's fired 568 00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:35,520 Speaker 6: from the sky. There are a lot of different capabilities, 569 00:31:35,560 --> 00:31:37,880 Speaker 6: and I'm glad you asked that question, Jo. I don't 570 00:31:37,920 --> 00:31:43,160 Speaker 6: see anything in the offing that would have American boots 571 00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:46,080 Speaker 6: on the ground or anybody's boots on the ground. These 572 00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:49,160 Speaker 6: are static targets for the most part, some mobile, but 573 00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:53,360 Speaker 6: we've got some pretty good intelligence capability that doesn't really 574 00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:56,600 Speaker 6: need eyes on the prize or boots on the ground. 575 00:31:57,960 --> 00:32:00,840 Speaker 3: But isn't the concern that ultimately it could escalate the 576 00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:03,480 Speaker 3: situation to a point where potentially boots on the ground 577 00:32:03,840 --> 00:32:07,080 Speaker 3: may be necessary. Right now, we're talking about Iranian proxies here, 578 00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:09,760 Speaker 3: but upset them too much, don't you risk awakening the 579 00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:12,320 Speaker 3: actual bear and potentially direct confrontation with Iran. 580 00:32:14,000 --> 00:32:16,680 Speaker 6: Well, that's a choice that Iron has to make if 581 00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:19,680 Speaker 6: in fact the bear is actually not the bear but 582 00:32:19,720 --> 00:32:23,880 Speaker 6: the cat's paw that is directing Hazbola, the Huthi's Hashid 583 00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:30,440 Speaker 6: in Iraq Hamas inside of Gaza. It seems like every 584 00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:35,400 Speaker 6: terrorist organization starts with h then eventually there's going to 585 00:32:35,480 --> 00:32:38,920 Speaker 6: have to be some sort of decision about what to 586 00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:43,160 Speaker 6: do next. I wrote an article this morning for Political EU, 587 00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:47,760 Speaker 6: parenthetically in a blatant attempt to do some self promotion, 588 00:32:48,040 --> 00:32:50,200 Speaker 6: talking about what I believe to be the next step, 589 00:32:50,320 --> 00:32:54,320 Speaker 6: which is we sent a pretty clear message with the 590 00:32:54,360 --> 00:33:01,360 Speaker 6: Carter doctrine, and sitting inside that capital when Carter delivered 591 00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:03,760 Speaker 6: that State of the Union speech was a young senator 592 00:33:03,800 --> 00:33:08,400 Speaker 6: named Biden. It's time for us to restate that doctrine, 593 00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:14,959 Speaker 6: which says, if any nation or their proxies attack American 594 00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:18,880 Speaker 6: vital interests, then we need to respond in any way appropriate, 595 00:33:18,920 --> 00:33:23,200 Speaker 6: to include military force. We need to give Iran sort 596 00:33:23,200 --> 00:33:26,440 Speaker 6: of that last chance to do the right thing. 597 00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:32,200 Speaker 2: Well, we talk about last chances. Are you among those 598 00:33:32,240 --> 00:33:35,320 Speaker 2: worried about a wider conflict, General, or can we keep 599 00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:35,920 Speaker 2: this contained? 600 00:33:38,080 --> 00:33:40,560 Speaker 6: That's a question you really asked, how to ask Tehran? 601 00:33:40,840 --> 00:33:43,520 Speaker 6: I mean, they're the ones that are inflaming. We're trying 602 00:33:43,560 --> 00:33:48,520 Speaker 6: to contain. They're trying to inflame. Hopefully they're still at 603 00:33:48,560 --> 00:33:52,320 Speaker 6: a position where they can reel in these terrorist groups, 604 00:33:52,360 --> 00:33:55,360 Speaker 6: because I think Iran probably has woken up to the 605 00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:59,160 Speaker 6: fact that the region doesn't need a regional war, and 606 00:33:59,240 --> 00:34:03,800 Speaker 6: some of that back splies can certainly come into Iran well. 607 00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:06,719 Speaker 3: As of now, the actual war is still contained between 608 00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:09,840 Speaker 3: Israel and Hamas. But the other message, in addition to 609 00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:13,760 Speaker 3: concerns around escalation of this conflict to something more broader regionally, 610 00:34:13,840 --> 00:34:16,120 Speaker 3: that we heard from Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln while 611 00:34:16,120 --> 00:34:18,560 Speaker 3: he was traveling throughout the Middle East, is this idea 612 00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:21,839 Speaker 3: that he presented in Israel yesterday that Israel essentially needs 613 00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:24,719 Speaker 3: to be pulling back its operations in Gaza and part 614 00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:28,879 Speaker 3: because of humanitarian considerations. What phase of the war are 615 00:34:28,920 --> 00:34:30,680 Speaker 3: we now in. Does the phase of the war we 616 00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:32,719 Speaker 3: are in match where the US would like it to be. 617 00:34:34,239 --> 00:34:36,600 Speaker 6: Well, I think the United States is sort of nudging 618 00:34:36,760 --> 00:34:40,160 Speaker 6: Israel to get to that phase. Israel will say that's 619 00:34:40,160 --> 00:34:43,279 Speaker 6: already happening inside of Gaza's city. We're not doing bombing there. 620 00:34:43,760 --> 00:34:46,000 Speaker 6: We still have some problems that we've got to clean 621 00:34:46,080 --> 00:34:49,680 Speaker 6: up down in him Unis. But the United States wants 622 00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:52,920 Speaker 6: them to start focusing not on aggregate targets, but high 623 00:34:53,000 --> 00:34:56,759 Speaker 6: value targets. I think we've seen the attack and the 624 00:34:56,880 --> 00:35:00,319 Speaker 6: strike on both the Hasbola leader and the Hamas leader 625 00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:03,120 Speaker 6: in Lebanon are two good examples that I think where 626 00:35:03,160 --> 00:35:08,279 Speaker 6: the United States is pushing the Israelis, and because as 627 00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:10,960 Speaker 6: Secretary B. Lincoln said yesterday, we've got to focus on 628 00:35:11,960 --> 00:35:16,279 Speaker 6: a ceasefire, resettlement of the internally displaced Gosins back to 629 00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:22,120 Speaker 6: their homes, feeding them, and getting some international reconstruction in there. 630 00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:24,600 Speaker 6: So I think the United States is trying to lead 631 00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:29,640 Speaker 6: rather than push, and try to create incentives for the 632 00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:35,040 Speaker 6: Israelis to wrap this thing up, because in many ways 633 00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:37,120 Speaker 6: that's the only way they're going to get their hostages back, 634 00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:41,040 Speaker 6: the infrastructure Hamas destroyed, and the opportunity to take out 635 00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:44,840 Speaker 6: the Hamas leaders, all of which are the terminal objectives 636 00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:48,080 Speaker 6: announced on October eighth by the government of Israel. 637 00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:51,839 Speaker 2: We have just a minute left, General kimm It, how 638 00:35:51,880 --> 00:35:54,600 Speaker 2: long will the US keep all of these assets in 639 00:35:54,640 --> 00:35:55,120 Speaker 2: the region. 640 00:35:57,560 --> 00:36:02,640 Speaker 6: The nice thing about American capability, and at the benefit end, 641 00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:05,600 Speaker 6: at the behest of the United States taxpayers, is that 642 00:36:05,640 --> 00:36:07,759 Speaker 6: we have a lot of flexibility. We have a lot 643 00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:11,080 Speaker 6: of capability. We'll keep it in as long as it's necessary, 644 00:36:11,320 --> 00:36:14,319 Speaker 6: we'll replace it if necessary, and then we'll pull it 645 00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:16,680 Speaker 6: out when no longer necessary. We can do that for 646 00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:18,680 Speaker 6: an extent period of time. As you saw with the 647 00:36:18,800 --> 00:36:22,279 Speaker 6: USS four being pulled out and the Baton Ready group 648 00:36:22,360 --> 00:36:24,360 Speaker 6: being pulled in, we can do this for an awful 649 00:36:24,360 --> 00:36:24,920 Speaker 6: long time. 650 00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:28,960 Speaker 2: It's good to see you, General Mark kimmittt with US 651 00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:32,440 Speaker 2: retired General Mark Kimmett on Bloomberg with some important insights 652 00:36:32,440 --> 00:36:35,120 Speaker 2: as we try to figure out the way forward here 653 00:36:35,160 --> 00:36:38,520 Speaker 2: in Israel, and Kayley understanding what might happen next with 654 00:36:38,560 --> 00:36:41,759 Speaker 2: the Secretary of Defense still an elusive question, I guess. 655 00:36:44,120 --> 00:36:46,399 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the sound On podcast. Make sure 656 00:36:46,440 --> 00:36:49,279 Speaker 2: to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and 657 00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:51,879 Speaker 2: anywhere else you get your podcasts, and you can find 658 00:36:52,000 --> 00:36:55,080 Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at one pm 659 00:36:55,120 --> 00:36:59,280 Speaker 2: Eastern Time at Bloomberg dot com