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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast podcast. If you are even remotely

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Speaker 1: a savage, you'll run these people over for a second.

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Speaker 2: Hello, Welcome to the Action Network podcast. UFC Betting Preview.

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Speaker 2: I'm Sean Zerulo joint to I have a billy word

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Speaker 2: to help you break down a thirteen fight card for

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Speaker 2: UFC London going down on Saturday at one pm Eastern

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Speaker 2: four pm Eastern four the main card six fight main card.

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Speaker 2: The main event Leon Edwards about plus one point thirty

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Speaker 2: against Sean Brady.

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Speaker 3: Minus one fifty five.

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Speaker 2: Fight goes to decision about minus one ninety fight to

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Speaker 2: end inside the distance roughly plus one fifty about forty

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Speaker 2: percent implied. And if you like to tail some of

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Speaker 2: the bets that we discussed both for the main event

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Speaker 2: and on today's show, make sure to find the quick

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Speaker 2: slip links in the podcast and video description or go

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Speaker 2: to Action network dot com slash bet now Billy. I'll

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Speaker 2: have a main event preview up for this fight on

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Speaker 2: Action Network dot Com. I believe we are leaning to

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Speaker 2: opposite sides of this contest. I actually just entered a

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Speaker 2: vet in the Action Network ap on Leon Edwards at

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Speaker 2: plus one For the rest of the market was trending

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Speaker 2: closer to plus one thirty. Seemed like plus one forty

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Speaker 2: was the peak the market had sort of trending up

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Speaker 2: in his direction. I think it hit its peak at

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Speaker 2: one and after Wayans is starting to come back down.

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Speaker 2: So if you like Leon, I think you can jump

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Speaker 2: in at the current price point. I don't think it's

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Speaker 2: going to improve much. If you like Sean Brady, you

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Speaker 2: might be able to wait a little bit closer to

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Speaker 2: fight time to pick off a better number. Are you

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Speaker 2: planning on finding a number on Brady that you like

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Speaker 2: Billy or are you just leaning his direction in terms

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Speaker 2: of the fight and you're happy to watch this one?

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Speaker 4: Yeah? Mostly the second one. I've had a bad run lately.

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Speaker 4: Every main event fighter I bet on just gets poke

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Speaker 4: in the eye a bunch of times. And I don't

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Speaker 4: want to put I don't want to put that evil

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Speaker 4: on Sean Brady because I'm a big fan of his.

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Speaker 4: But no, I'm truly torn on this one. Sean Brady,

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Speaker 4: in theory, can execute the exact same game plan that

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Speaker 4: bal Muhammad did against Leon Edwards. Right, He's got all

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Speaker 4: the same skill set, even same physical build, big strong

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Speaker 4: guy like that all should work. Leon Edwards is claiming

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Speaker 4: that he wasn't you know, his full strength at that one,

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Speaker 4: because the fight was at five am, And that actually

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Speaker 4: makes a ton of sense. Normally fighters say that and

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Speaker 4: you go, yeah, no, one's one hundred percent. I actually

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Speaker 4: kind of believe that one more than I usually do.

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Speaker 4: And then I also worry about that grappling in pace

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Speaker 4: over five rounds. For Brady, obviously he's you know, he

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Speaker 4: got knocked out by Mohammad, so you could argue the

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Speaker 4: striking differential is a little bit bigger there for Edwards

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Speaker 4: this time around. I don't have strong feelings. I'm considering

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Speaker 4: a live bet on Leon Edwards if it blows up early,

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Speaker 4: because if Brady can get a takedown but not really

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Speaker 4: do much with it and we get plus two fifty

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Speaker 4: or something on Edwards, that's probably where I jump in.

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Speaker 4: Other than that, I'm probably just gonna stay out of it.

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Speaker 4: Hopefully nobody gets poked in the eye, which is no

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Speaker 4: guarantee in the Leon Edwards fight because he likes to

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Speaker 4: do some of that too. So just hoping for a

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Speaker 4: clean fight and possibly some live betting entries. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Leon first fight against bal Mohammed, I poked them. He

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Speaker 2: was looking great. In that fight in the Apex, I

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Speaker 2: poked them. They ended up rematching for the title and

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Speaker 2: Balal took the belt off of him and Leon looked

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Speaker 2: flat throughout that fight, look kind of disinterested at points

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Speaker 2: did out grapple Balall in the later.

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Speaker 3: Rounds, third and fifth round.

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Speaker 2: Argument for winning the fifth round third round he clearly won,

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Speaker 2: but took Balaal's back at one point. And as you said,

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Speaker 2: I think this is a similar matchup for Sean Brady

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Speaker 2: as it was for bal Mohammed in terms of being

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Speaker 2: able to impose as well stylistically the strength with the takedowns.

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Speaker 2: But can he consolidate the takedowns for long enough? Can

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Speaker 2: he submit Leon before Leon is able to scramble back

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Speaker 2: to his feet and land more damage Because in England, Leon,

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Speaker 2: every strike that he lands the crowds going to be popping,

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Speaker 2: but also the damage optics are going to be in

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Speaker 2: his favor. I really do think Sean Brady probably needs

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Speaker 2: a submission or round to pound finish in order to

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Speaker 2: win this fight. Otherwise I think he's really going to

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Speaker 2: be up against it with the judges and also severe

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Speaker 2: durability edge for Leon Edwards here too, seeing the way

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Speaker 2: Bala Mohammad put away Sean Brady wants. Brady wasn't able

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Speaker 2: to get takedowns in that fight. He went over five

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Speaker 2: in that fight. I think the more resistance Edwards shows

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Speaker 2: to takedowns here, the better he's going to look throughout

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Speaker 2: the fight. I trust his cardio in the later rounds,

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Speaker 2: and I trust his ability to put on damage on

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Speaker 2: Sean Brady in the later rounds. So Brady, as you said,

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Speaker 2: can have early success. Maybe lands a takedown of the

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Speaker 2: opening round, maybe the line blows out just a little bit.

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Speaker 2: More happy to jump in on a live bet on

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Speaker 2: Leon Edwards anytime. Live after round one, maybe live after

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Speaker 2: round two is the best inflection point, because in a

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Speaker 2: three round fight, I think this price is kind of fine.

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Speaker 2: I'm fine with Brady around minus one to fifty five

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Speaker 2: at a three round five, but not in a five

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Speaker 2: round fight. I do not trust him to be able

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Speaker 2: to impose his style for three out of the five

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Speaker 2: rounds two out of the three rounds. I could see

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Speaker 2: it not in three out of five, given Leon's lky

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Speaker 2: cardio edge and also the damage that Leon's going to

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Speaker 2: be putting on him in the clinch. Leon one of

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Speaker 2: the best clinch fighters in this sport. You really saw

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Speaker 2: him deter kamorro Usman from entering the clinch just because

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Speaker 2: of all the knees and elbows and stuff he fires.

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Speaker 2: When Usman tried to get it on the hips to

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Speaker 2: get into a takedown, Leon made him pay for it,

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Speaker 2: and I think he's going to do the same with

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Speaker 2: Sean Brady here, so Brady better finish him on the mat. Otherwise,

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Speaker 2: I think Leon eventually recovers, works his way back up

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Speaker 2: and lansmore damage, especially over the final fifteen minutes of

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Speaker 2: the fight. So I'm fine with Leon on the money

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Speaker 2: line down about plus one twenty five, and I also

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Speaker 2: like his knockout odds at seven to one, all the

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Speaker 2: way down to six to one or better, Philly, any

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Speaker 2: other prop thoughts on this fight, any thoughts on the total?

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Speaker 3: Interested in plus money on.

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Speaker 2: The fight ends inside the distance before we move on

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Speaker 2: to our fight of the night.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I was about to jump in and say on

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Speaker 4: the ends inside the distance. It kind of makes sense

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Speaker 4: to me. It's a weird mix because basically all of

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Speaker 4: Sean Brady's fights and inside the distance and none of

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Speaker 4: Leon Edwards do. But both guy has what should be

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Speaker 4: a fairly clear path to a finish, and it feels

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Speaker 4: like if Brady's getting takedowns, he does a very good

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Speaker 4: job of scoring both the strikes and submissions when he

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Speaker 4: does get takedowns. And at the same time, if he's

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Speaker 4: forced to stand with Leon Edwards for ten fifteen minutes

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Speaker 4: of a twenty five minute fight, you kind of expect

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Speaker 4: Leon to finish him there. So I would lean that

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Speaker 4: way as well, might throw something on that depending on

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Speaker 4: how the night is go and form me up until

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Speaker 4: that point. Last thing to add the one I guess pushback.

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Speaker 4: While I broadly believe Leon about his performance being thrown

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Speaker 4: off by the time change and all that stuff, he

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Speaker 4: didn't look great against Colby Covington in the fight before

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Speaker 4: that either. He won, but it was eh, And so

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Speaker 4: you could almost poke holes in all of his recent

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Speaker 4: wins because Usman was getting up there in years and

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Speaker 4: it's probably fallen off a little bit. God Dominum dominated

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Speaker 4: him in the first fight until Edward's got the knockout.

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Speaker 4: Second fight, Edwards won, but it wasn't like a super thrilling,

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Speaker 4: high output performance, So there's there's some risk here that

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Speaker 4: Edwards is maybe kind of lucked into winning the title

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Speaker 4: when he did you know, long win streak. I don't

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Speaker 4: want to take anything away from him. I'm not saying

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Speaker 4: that's the likeliest hotcome, but it's it's a possibility.

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Speaker 2: Last thing I want to throw at you the decision

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Speaker 2: only and the finish only market is Leon is plus

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Speaker 2: money in both, He's plus one ten, Brady is minus

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Speaker 2: one fifty in decision only. Leon is plus one fifty

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Speaker 2: Brady minus two ten in finish only.

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Speaker 3: One of those or both of those is off. I

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Speaker 3: can't tell which one is more off. What are your

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Speaker 3: thoughts on those?

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Speaker 4: That's the problem though, right is it's we know one

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Speaker 4: of them has to be one of all. I would

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Speaker 4: my thought would be decision only. But the more I

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Speaker 4: think about it, if it goes to a decision, I

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Speaker 4: think it's going to be really clear for one guy,

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Speaker 4: like either Brady is getting takedowns every round he is

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Speaker 4: not a stall from the top kind of takedown guy.

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Speaker 4: He's always doing stuff, or he can't get takedowns and

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Speaker 4: he's just getting picked apart and like nearly finished. So

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Speaker 4: I guess I mean finish only for Edwards would probably

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Speaker 4: be the one of those two.

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Speaker 3: That's what I thought.

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Speaker 4: I think, because has Edwards ever been submitted No, No,

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Speaker 4: I don't believe so. So like if we trust his

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Speaker 4: submission defense, you don't think Brady's going to knock m out. Yeah,

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Speaker 4: I would say the finish only would probably be the

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Speaker 4: one I'm playing.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, plus one fifty on Edwards finish only, I think

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Speaker 2: I would have expected those to be flipped. I think

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Speaker 2: I would have expected at best like plus one ten

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Speaker 2: on Edwards finish only. But yeah, I'm I'm a little

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Speaker 2: interested in that finish only market. I need to see

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Speaker 2: where I project out they're finish odds relative to one another.

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Speaker 2: Let me pull that up really quick, because that is

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Speaker 2: that just stands out as interesting to me.

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Speaker 4: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, it's not a huge discrepancy. Like I would make

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Speaker 2: it plus one ten. I wouldn't make it plus one fifty,

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Speaker 2: as I make Edwards a slight underdog, but I give

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Speaker 2: him about five to six percent more chance of his

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Speaker 2: own win condition of finishing relative to Brady. So I

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Speaker 2: think plus one ten is fine. Plus one fifty seems

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Speaker 2: a little bit off. Edwards finished only plus one twenty

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Speaker 2: five or better. I think I'm comfortable playing plus one

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Speaker 2: fifty seems like it's a bit too long. Let's get

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Speaker 2: our attention to our fight at the night. Carlos Olberg

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Speaker 2: about minus three hundred Australian kickboxer against Jan Blakovich at

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Speaker 2: plus two forty. This fight is minus one tend to

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Speaker 2: go to a decision, minus one twenty to end inside

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Speaker 2: the distance. Yeahon the former champion coming back though at

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Speaker 2: forty two years old, one and a half nearly two

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Speaker 2: year layoff, I think like a twenty month layoff. He's

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Speaker 2: returning from has had injuries in the past, coming back

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Speaker 2: from shoulder surgery. He pulled out of a fight from

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Speaker 2: also has had the neck injuries in the past. If

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Speaker 2: you remember, he submitted very very quickly to a rear

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Speaker 2: naked choke that wasn't even locked in. Billy, I believe

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Speaker 2: we are technical on opposite sides of this fight. I'm

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Speaker 2: not really sure if I'm betting Yon, you would bet

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Speaker 2: Olberg or pass. I like your approach taking the spread

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Speaker 2: at minus three and a half because there's a chance

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Speaker 2: that Yan just physically could be completely shot here or

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Speaker 2: it just might be super duper slow coming back at

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Speaker 2: age forty two, So how do you see this fight

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Speaker 2: playing out? And then I'll go ahead and get my

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Speaker 2: leans after.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, at best, the case for Jan is

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Speaker 4: he can kind of just control them against the fence

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Speaker 4: and get takedowns. It is hard to do that against

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Speaker 4: Alberg he was. Even if Jan is at his best,

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Speaker 4: Olberg is a considerably better athlete. I think here got

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Speaker 4: more power. We talk about the Polish power for Yan,

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Speaker 4: but he has like a below divisional average knockdown right,

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Speaker 4: that's not real. And he's also, as you pointed out,

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Speaker 4: just turn forty two, had surgery on both shoulders. I

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Speaker 4: don't know if like people listening know anyone forty and

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Speaker 4: up who's had a shoulder surgery or dealing with shoulders.

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Speaker 4: I've never once heard him say and now I feel great,

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Speaker 4: or now they're better, or like I got surgery and

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Speaker 4: now everything's fine. Like I know tons of dudes around

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Speaker 4: that a to lift a ton of weights and get

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Speaker 4: shoulder surgery and it never works. And he got him

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Speaker 4: on both shoulders. So there's just massive downside risk that Yon,

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Speaker 4: you know, can barely keep his hands up to defend himself,

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Speaker 4: blocks one high kick and his shoulder goes out, et cetera,

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Speaker 4: et cetera. I'm actually just laying the juice on Olberg

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Speaker 4: at minus two ninety because Yan is durable. But yeah,

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Speaker 4: the minus three and a half at minus one forty

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Speaker 4: or even Oldberg inside the distance at plus one fifty,

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Speaker 4: Yan has been durable. I don't know that at this age,

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Speaker 4: with this layoff, with all the injuries. I believe he

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Speaker 4: even had an ACL surgery in there and his UFC

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Speaker 4: run two way before the neck could be wrong on

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Speaker 4: that one, but I just don't. I'm not betting on

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Speaker 4: a forty two year old guy coming off multiple shoulder

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Speaker 4: surgeries and a twenty month layoff. It just doesn't Nothing

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Speaker 4: about that feels right.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Olberg is not a young guy himself. I mean

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Speaker 2: he's already thirty five, I believe. But in terms of

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Speaker 2: fight damage, you know, athleticism, as he said, speed at

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Speaker 2: this point there is a massive difference between these two,

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Speaker 2: and we don't know how much slower he's going to

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Speaker 2: look coming back after that layoff after another injury at

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Speaker 2: age forty two. So definitely downside physically for Yan here,

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Speaker 2: as you mentioned, has the grappling upside, could potentially land

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Speaker 2: takedowns beat Oberg like he beat Israel Outasnia, though Olberg

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Speaker 2: a little bit bigger than ant of Sonya, but could

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Speaker 2: see the path to Yan top timing him pressing him

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Speaker 2: up against the cage. I just don't know what the

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Speaker 2: likelihood of him executing that game plan is, especially in

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Speaker 2: the bigger octagon. Maybe in the apex you could see

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Speaker 2: it happening a little bit more frequently, just because the

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Speaker 2: bodies are going to be pushed closer together in the

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Speaker 2: bigger cage. I think Olberg should be able to matdure

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Speaker 2: him a little bit, stick and move get out of

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Speaker 2: the way. And as you said, I think Yan's power

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Speaker 2: in general overrated too. We have seen Olberg get clipped

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Speaker 2: get hurt in the past. I don't know if Yan

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Speaker 2: is going to be the guy to put him away.

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Speaker 2: I think from top position absolutely could pound him out.

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Speaker 2: I think Yon submission odds long odds. It'd be worth

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Speaker 2: an interesting poke too, just because that's where he's going

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Speaker 2: to win the fight. If Yan is winning the fight,

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Speaker 2: it's likely he gets this fight to the ground and

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Speaker 2: he's able to threaten submissions. And I don't trust Oberg

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Speaker 2: submission defense nearly as much as I would a guy

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Speaker 2: like Adasa on you who's been training Jiu jitsu for

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Speaker 2: much longer. Olberg still relatively new.

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Speaker 3: To the sport. He's only been training MMA for about

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Speaker 3: five years.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, it's it's Yanner passed for me on the

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Speaker 2: money line, but very likely a pass just because pure

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Speaker 2: kickboxing fight, it's tough for Olberg to cover a big

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Speaker 2: price deck. I actually prefer Billy laying the spread as

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Speaker 2: opposed to laying the money line. But I kind of

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Speaker 2: lean to the fight to go to a decision as well.

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Speaker 2: My only concern is Yan's age, just that he's going

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Speaker 2: to look like decrepit coming back off of this layoff,

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Speaker 2: or you know, the injuries crop up again, like he

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Speaker 2: gets hurt at some point in the fight and the

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Speaker 2: fight ends. It's all a possibility that you kind of

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Speaker 2: have to backor in here. But I still projected this

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Speaker 2: fight to go to a decision closer to minus one

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Speaker 2: thirty minus one forty. I'm interesting in the ghost to

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Speaker 2: decision at about minus one ten. Billy, any other thoughts

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Speaker 2: for this fight before we move on to our top underdocks.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, one quick thing on the grappling. I just found

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Speaker 4: this to be interesting. He has eight UC Olberg has

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Speaker 4: eight UFC fights. He has only faced seven takedown attempts

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Speaker 4: from his opponents despite everyone knowing that he's a former

301
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Speaker 4: high level kickboxer, and that's not a coincidence. That's a credit.

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Speaker 4: I mean, partially it's a credit to the UFC matching

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Speaker 4: him up with some favorable matchups early, but also he

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Speaker 4: manages range really well. He's been almost exclusively in the

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Speaker 4: big cage in his UFC run because they're trying to

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Speaker 4: promote him, and if I don't let you close to me,

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Speaker 4: you can't really even attempt to take down. So I'm

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Speaker 4: not confident in his takedown defense or grappling ability on

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Speaker 4: the ground so much. I'm confident in his ability to

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Speaker 4: just not be in a situation where that matters. And

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Speaker 4: Yon wasn't fast afoot to begin with, so I don't

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Speaker 4: know how he corners him against the fence and limits that.

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Speaker 4: So that's where I'm less worried about the takedown, even

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Speaker 4: against a guy like Atasignia, who you know, more skilled

315
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Speaker 4: overall than Olberg I think, But I would say Olberg

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Speaker 4: is probably the better athlete, faster and more explosive all

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Speaker 4: that stuff, and can kind of just run out of

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Speaker 4: those situations and not face the attempt to begin with.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, good stuff, And you know, because of that distance management,

320
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Speaker 2: the fact that he's going to be forcing the fight

321
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Speaker 2: to more of an outside distance striking match.

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Speaker 3: That is partially the reason I like to gost to decisions.

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Speaker 2: While I don't see a ton of pocket exchanges between

324
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Speaker 2: these two, I'm just worried about the speed differential, you know,

325
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Speaker 2: the fact that Yon may realize he's trailing, push forward,

326
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Speaker 2: trying to land something, and then get counter big by

327
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Speaker 2: Olberg and that's the end of the fight. We've seen

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Speaker 2: Yon be super durable, but if there's a massive speed

329
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Speaker 2: discrepancy between these two, that could lead to a finish.

330
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Speaker 2: So that has me slightly concerned. But at minus one ten,

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Speaker 2: I think of okay, still betting into that. We'll see

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Speaker 2: how significant I size that bet. Number of underdogs, a

333
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Speaker 2: lot of plus money that we like on this card,

334
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Speaker 2: a bunch of props we'll get through as well. And

335
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Speaker 2: then we've each got a couple of money lines in

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Speaker 2: our best bets section, so I'm curious if those are

337
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Speaker 2: best bets or final bets for Billy. Let's talk about

338
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Speaker 2: our favorite underdogs, though one in particular we're aligned on.

339
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Speaker 2: It's the first fight of the night. Again, don't know

340
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Speaker 2: how significant of a bet this will be for me,

341
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Speaker 2: but I do think Kiwie Fernandez is the value side

342
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Speaker 2: at plus three forty against Garam to putatalads. Garam came

343
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Speaker 2: into the UFC one an upset victory over Mitays Gamrot.

344
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Speaker 2: It was a split decision, but as a result of

345
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Speaker 2: that win, the fact that he trains with Hamjat Chimayev,

346
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Speaker 2: I think this guy got a lot of hype and

347
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Speaker 2: he's basically disappointed in every single fight since. So, Billy,

348
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Speaker 2: I want you to break down this fight. I view

349
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Speaker 2: these guys both as pretty good kicking game, but like

350
00:16:41,560 --> 00:16:45,160
Speaker 2: not a ton else in terms of their overall skill set.

351
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Speaker 2: I think Karama is the grappling upside. But tell me

352
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Speaker 2: why you like Fernandez.

353
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Speaker 4: Yeah, Fernandez might actually be my best bet here. I'm

354
00:16:52,120 --> 00:16:55,080
Speaker 4: kind of sprinkling on all the big underdogs here, much

355
00:16:55,120 --> 00:16:58,040
Speaker 4: like last week where we got Carlos Vera across the line.

356
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Speaker 4: But Kutel i'de just isn't as good as we all

357
00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:04,359
Speaker 4: want him to be. For lack of a better term,

358
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Speaker 4: he probably didn't win the split decision against Matasha Caamer

359
00:17:07,400 --> 00:17:09,360
Speaker 4: like it was close I'm not definitely not a robbery.

360
00:17:09,400 --> 00:17:12,920
Speaker 4: But and then in his last fight against Jordan Vusanich

361
00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:16,040
Speaker 4: got dropped early against the guy coming in on short

362
00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:18,880
Speaker 4: notice and was lucky to rally back and survive that fight.

363
00:17:18,960 --> 00:17:21,720
Speaker 4: If Vucinich had even a few weeks to prepare and

364
00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:25,439
Speaker 4: build some cardio, he almost certainly would have lost. Durham

365
00:17:25,440 --> 00:17:28,280
Speaker 4: almost certainly would have lost that fight. The other big

366
00:17:28,280 --> 00:17:31,280
Speaker 4: difference I agree with you skill wise, I don't trust

367
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Speaker 4: Gurham's durability at this point because he got knocked out

368
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Speaker 4: by Elvis Brenner and then dropped immediately in the next fight,

369
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Speaker 4: so he's been knocked down in each of his last

370
00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:42,919
Speaker 4: two fights. He should have a grappling advantage, but he

371
00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:45,560
Speaker 4: doesn't use it, which is part of why he makes

372
00:17:45,640 --> 00:17:48,480
Speaker 4: all his fights closer than they need to be. And

373
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Speaker 4: if we're going to play that game for fifteen minutes

374
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Speaker 4: against the guy like Fernandez who's won most of his

375
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Speaker 4: fights by knockout, something bad is probably gonna happen at

376
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Speaker 4: some point there. So it's plus three forty. I think

377
00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:01,919
Speaker 4: I'm doing a quarter unit three underdogs that are all

378
00:18:01,920 --> 00:18:04,719
Speaker 4: plus three hundred or better. This is actually my favorite

379
00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:06,600
Speaker 4: and I might sprinkle a little bit more on this

380
00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:07,720
Speaker 4: knockout prop as well.

381
00:18:08,680 --> 00:18:11,399
Speaker 2: I've got one underdog, not quite plus three hundred, but

382
00:18:11,400 --> 00:18:15,639
Speaker 2: plus two to sixty on Felipe dos Santos against loner Cavanaugh.

383
00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:19,280
Speaker 2: Dos Santos is a really good striker, and Cavanaugh, like

384
00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:22,600
Speaker 2: you said, with utata loads, not reliable to grapples. So

385
00:18:22,600 --> 00:18:25,760
Speaker 2: if these two end up striking it out for fifteen minutes,

386
00:18:25,880 --> 00:18:29,480
Speaker 2: I think Santo's absolutely covers his plus two to sixty

387
00:18:29,520 --> 00:18:32,080
Speaker 2: price tag and makes it more competitive than those odds

388
00:18:32,080 --> 00:18:35,320
Speaker 2: suggests three inches taller three inch each advantage a very

389
00:18:35,359 --> 00:18:39,000
Speaker 2: competitive striking fight with menel cop I think Cavanaugh, as

390
00:18:39,000 --> 00:18:41,960
Speaker 2: I said, needs to grapple proactively in order to cover

391
00:18:42,040 --> 00:18:45,439
Speaker 2: this price tag. I don't necessarily trust him to do that,

392
00:18:45,560 --> 00:18:48,040
Speaker 2: So based on the stylistic nature of that fight, I

393
00:18:48,040 --> 00:18:50,960
Speaker 2: think Felipe dos Santos could be more competitive than plus

394
00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:53,399
Speaker 2: two sixty. He is bad takedown defense. I'm just not

395
00:18:53,480 --> 00:18:56,800
Speaker 2: sure if Kavanaugh is actually going to try to actively

396
00:18:56,840 --> 00:19:00,720
Speaker 2: expose it. Billie, You've got a couple under bigger couple

397
00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:03,359
Speaker 2: of other bigger underdogs that you mentioned you want to

398
00:19:03,400 --> 00:19:06,879
Speaker 2: give out. We also have one consensus underdog that we're

399
00:19:06,920 --> 00:19:09,600
Speaker 2: gonna save for the best bets section, So go ahead

400
00:19:09,640 --> 00:19:11,600
Speaker 2: and give out your final two dogs and then we'll

401
00:19:11,640 --> 00:19:14,400
Speaker 2: talk about one of the WMMA fights where we both

402
00:19:14,400 --> 00:19:15,119
Speaker 2: have plus money.

403
00:19:15,359 --> 00:19:19,000
Speaker 4: Yeah. So I'm looking at Andre Puoliev against Christian Leroy Duncan.

404
00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:21,679
Speaker 4: I don't think Duncan is great. I think the UFC

405
00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:24,119
Speaker 4: has done a good job of giving him favorable matchups.

406
00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:27,159
Speaker 4: Puliev is like a black box. I wrote him up

407
00:19:27,160 --> 00:19:29,320
Speaker 4: before his Contender Series fight. I don't think I could

408
00:19:29,320 --> 00:19:32,960
Speaker 4: find a single full fight of his anywhere, but he

409
00:19:32,960 --> 00:19:35,320
Speaker 4: looked really good on the Contender Series. I'm not sure

410
00:19:35,320 --> 00:19:39,119
Speaker 4: that Christian Leroy Duncan is that skilled. He's just that athletic,

411
00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:41,320
Speaker 4: and he's got outstruck by guys with any kind of

412
00:19:41,359 --> 00:19:44,400
Speaker 4: striking skill. So he got outstruck by g Rod and Petrosian.

413
00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:47,639
Speaker 4: Can Puliev do that? I actually have no idea. But

414
00:19:47,720 --> 00:19:50,159
Speaker 4: he's got a lifelong martial arts background. He wasn't a

415
00:19:50,160 --> 00:19:52,879
Speaker 4: basketball player at plus four and eighty. That is a

416
00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:55,520
Speaker 4: quarter unit sprinkle for me. And then the other one

417
00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:58,199
Speaker 4: is the other Chris Duncan, which makes this confusing to

418
00:19:58,200 --> 00:20:02,119
Speaker 4: talk about. But lightweights Scottish Chris Duncan. I'm betting on

419
00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:07,400
Speaker 4: against the aforementioned Jordan Bucinich, basically Vucinich. You talk about

420
00:20:07,400 --> 00:20:09,720
Speaker 4: this all the time. A guy comes in, overperforms in

421
00:20:09,760 --> 00:20:13,040
Speaker 4: a short notice debut, but loses the market, flips out

422
00:20:13,080 --> 00:20:16,119
Speaker 4: like he's the next Habide, and then it turns out

423
00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:18,720
Speaker 4: he just got like a good punch in there. Plus

424
00:20:18,720 --> 00:20:21,639
Speaker 4: three fifty on Chris Duncan, who's approven UFC prospect. I

425
00:20:21,640 --> 00:20:25,000
Speaker 4: believe three and one in the promotion didn't not beating

426
00:20:25,040 --> 00:20:27,639
Speaker 4: world beaters or whatever, but to get plus three fifty

427
00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:30,800
Speaker 4: on that, I'm pretty confident that he looks better than

428
00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:32,720
Speaker 4: that line. We just need to get one of these

429
00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:36,119
Speaker 4: three to make a profit. I'm kind of comfortable just

430
00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:37,560
Speaker 4: sprinkling across all of them.

431
00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:40,520
Speaker 2: Duncan a good live bet after round one as well,

432
00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:44,000
Speaker 2: just because, as you mentioned, with the fight against Kutad

433
00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:46,640
Speaker 2: Alouds fading after roun one, I still have concerns about

434
00:20:46,640 --> 00:20:49,760
Speaker 2: the cardio across fifteen minutes. I think Duncan is a

435
00:20:49,880 --> 00:20:53,240
Speaker 2: lesser athlete, but if he doesn't die immediately, I think

436
00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:55,639
Speaker 2: he covers that price and makes it more competitive than

437
00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:57,879
Speaker 2: the odd suggests. May get a better live price on Duncan.

438
00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:01,480
Speaker 2: After round one, we have one more underdog. We're going

439
00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:03,320
Speaker 2: to talk about Billy also as a prop on that

440
00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:05,720
Speaker 2: fight too. But first, March is the best month of

441
00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:07,600
Speaker 2: the year. We're in the midst of the NCAA tournament,

442
00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:10,240
Speaker 2: and not just for sports, but also forgetting the best

443
00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:12,200
Speaker 2: deals on Action Pro. Right now, you can get Action

444
00:21:12,280 --> 00:21:15,159
Speaker 2: Pro for just over five dollars a month for the

445
00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:17,879
Speaker 2: entire year. And since it's March that means the UNSAA

446
00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:20,120
Speaker 2: tournament is in full swing. It's an Action Pro gown.

447
00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:24,399
Speaker 2: You'll get Sean Kerner's bracket simulations, access to Nick Gibbons

448
00:21:24,440 --> 00:21:28,000
Speaker 2: player prop stuckies picks thirty minutes earlier than they go

449
00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:31,600
Speaker 2: out to everybody else, and more. Plus, since it's an

450
00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:33,960
Speaker 2: entire year of Action Pro, you'll get access to next

451
00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:38,200
Speaker 2: year's college football and NFL seasons two plus Major League Baseball,

452
00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:42,320
Speaker 2: UFC this summer, and everything else that'll come up over

453
00:21:42,359 --> 00:21:44,199
Speaker 2: the next year. So go to Action Network dot com

454
00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:46,520
Speaker 2: slash March to get on board.

455
00:21:46,640 --> 00:21:47,919
Speaker 3: Now, Billy.

456
00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:51,480
Speaker 2: Before we get into our props, fully, I do want

457
00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:54,160
Speaker 2: to touch on Pooja tomorrow at plus one point fifty

458
00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:59,520
Speaker 2: against Sean Obannen Tomorrow, I think is the better fighter.

459
00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:02,639
Speaker 2: I'm concerned about where this fight is taking place and

460
00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:05,639
Speaker 2: the scoring that may occur, because this fight is minus

461
00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:08,000
Speaker 2: five hundred to go to a decision. I think Tomorrow

462
00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:09,920
Speaker 2: may win the fight. I'm just not sure if the

463
00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:12,880
Speaker 2: judges are actively going to score it for her now.

464
00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:15,560
Speaker 2: Seanna Bannon does have ai or six inch reach advantage,

465
00:22:15,960 --> 00:22:18,400
Speaker 2: and she's going to be coming forward more. Tomor likes

466
00:22:18,400 --> 00:22:20,840
Speaker 2: the counter strike. She's very good at it, and this

467
00:22:20,920 --> 00:22:23,640
Speaker 2: is a very good matchup for her to do it.

468
00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:26,639
Speaker 2: I'm just worried about the fact that Bannon has that

469
00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:30,320
Speaker 2: reach advantage, probably lands more volume across fifteen minutes, or

470
00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:33,639
Speaker 2: at least attempts more volume across fifteen minutes, just pumping

471
00:22:33,680 --> 00:22:37,680
Speaker 2: them strikes out there, and the forward pressure, optics and

472
00:22:37,720 --> 00:22:40,359
Speaker 2: the crowd are going to sway the judges, whereas Tomorrow,

473
00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:42,480
Speaker 2: I think is going to be landing the more damaging,

474
00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:45,560
Speaker 2: more impactful shots. I think she carries more power and

475
00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:49,719
Speaker 2: I prefer her kicking game. So Phusha Tomorrow I think

476
00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:52,720
Speaker 2: is a good bet at plus one fifty maybe anywhere,

477
00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:56,760
Speaker 2: but in England against Shana Ban. I believe ban It's Irish,

478
00:22:56,800 --> 00:22:58,720
Speaker 2: but still going to be getting you know, the hometown

479
00:22:59,400 --> 00:23:02,640
Speaker 2: judging and the boost and all that. So I would

480
00:23:02,680 --> 00:23:04,640
Speaker 2: have bit sketched out by this one just because of

481
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,560
Speaker 2: the nature of words taking place, the likelihood that is

482
00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:10,959
Speaker 2: a very close and competitive split decision. But as a result,

483
00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:13,680
Speaker 2: Tomorrow at plus one fifty a good bet. If you're

484
00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:16,640
Speaker 2: assuming it's going to be close and competitive and going

485
00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:19,880
Speaker 2: to a split Billy, you're thinking along the same lines here,

486
00:23:20,160 --> 00:23:23,720
Speaker 2: you're giving out tomorrow to win by split urberjority decision

487
00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:26,320
Speaker 2: at plus seven hundred. Go ahead and tell me why.

488
00:23:26,800 --> 00:23:28,440
Speaker 2: Aside from the fact that I just laid it.

489
00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:30,840
Speaker 4: Out, Yeah, yeah, I mean you told me why. So

490
00:23:31,160 --> 00:23:33,720
Speaker 4: the bigger why here is that I bet on Tomorro's

491
00:23:33,800 --> 00:23:36,159
Speaker 4: money line at plus one fifty as you did, but

492
00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:38,520
Speaker 4: just didn't have any props this fight. I went through

493
00:23:38,520 --> 00:23:41,640
Speaker 4: and looked through my card, and here's the thought process

494
00:23:41,680 --> 00:23:43,200
Speaker 4: I went to that fight. I said, this one has

495
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:45,840
Speaker 4: split decision written all over it. Neither of them have

496
00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:48,520
Speaker 4: great power. Kind of agree with you that Tomorrow's is better,

497
00:23:48,560 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 4: but like it's not by a long shot. Neither of

498
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:54,600
Speaker 4: them are going to grapple it all, which makes it

499
00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:56,359
Speaker 4: hard for a round to look clear. So I was like,

500
00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:58,119
Speaker 4: let's go and see what the odds are that this

501
00:23:58,200 --> 00:24:01,720
Speaker 4: goes to a split decision. A plus two twenty five

502
00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:04,600
Speaker 4: to be a split decision, which is just absurdly low

503
00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:08,320
Speaker 4: for any fight. Like you're betting on judges to disagree,

504
00:24:08,359 --> 00:24:11,040
Speaker 4: which is a hard thing to even predict to an extent.

505
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:13,240
Speaker 4: So I thought, all right, I'm betting on tomorrow. I

506
00:24:13,240 --> 00:24:14,920
Speaker 4: think it's going to go to a split decision. Put

507
00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:17,680
Speaker 4: those two together. Plus seven hundred odds not a big

508
00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:19,760
Speaker 4: bet for me. I'll probably throw like ten bucks on

509
00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:22,000
Speaker 4: that on top of my plus one fifty ticket, but

510
00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:25,800
Speaker 4: that is how I got there. I think the opposite

511
00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:28,320
Speaker 4: side of that, which is plus four hundred on Bannon

512
00:24:28,320 --> 00:24:31,840
Speaker 4: to win by a split decision, also fine. Right, Like

513
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:35,479
Speaker 4: that wouldn't shock me either, that she probably deserves to lose.

514
00:24:36,080 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 4: One judge refuses to give in to peer pressure and

515
00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:42,199
Speaker 4: the other two do that seems pretty likely to have

516
00:24:42,280 --> 00:24:43,680
Speaker 4: fun with that one, Like, this is not going to

517
00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:45,560
Speaker 4: be a great fight, it's not going to be an

518
00:24:45,560 --> 00:24:49,120
Speaker 4: impactful fight for the division, but these are some ways

519
00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:50,800
Speaker 4: to try to have a little bit of fun with it.

520
00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:54,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would love to do some some analysis going

521
00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:58,840
Speaker 2: back through fights, especially WWMMA fights that are like north

522
00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:01,080
Speaker 2: of minus four hundred to to decision and see what

523
00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 2: percentage of them actually go to splits, because I would

524
00:25:04,119 --> 00:25:06,640
Speaker 2: imagine in these fights, and you know, to filter by

525
00:25:06,680 --> 00:25:09,439
Speaker 2: moneyline range as well, like anything maybe less than minus

526
00:25:09,480 --> 00:25:12,000
Speaker 2: two hundred something like that. I feel like when you

527
00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:15,480
Speaker 2: have these fights that are you know, south of sixty

528
00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:19,520
Speaker 2: five percent implied and higher than eighty percent.

529
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 3: To go to a decision, that's where the splits are

530
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:21,800
Speaker 3: going to occur.

531
00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:24,960
Speaker 2: So could be worth looking into some research just on

532
00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:29,199
Speaker 2: combining the money line ranges and the total ranges and

533
00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:32,199
Speaker 2: trying to figure out, you know, logically where the splits

534
00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:34,160
Speaker 2: may occur, because this one seems to have split written

535
00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:37,200
Speaker 2: all over it. Another fight that could go to a

536
00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:41,080
Speaker 2: split just because of the fight. IQ of Taynara against

537
00:25:41,160 --> 00:25:45,080
Speaker 2: Molly mccantina are making or UFCITW. She's very physical, five

538
00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:48,800
Speaker 2: inch reach advantage, looks all the parts of a future

539
00:25:48,880 --> 00:25:51,040
Speaker 2: champion out one hundred and fifteen pounds if she can

540
00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:54,560
Speaker 2: continue making the weight. She's an elite athlete on Data

541
00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:58,640
Speaker 2: White Contender Series, she out wrestled a Brazilian national wrestling

542
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:02,719
Speaker 2: champion and she is a strike, so Tynara, like skill wise,

543
00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 2: seems to have all the abilities. Molly McCann previously moved

544
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:09,200
Speaker 2: down from one twenty five to one fifteen, as I said,

545
00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:13,920
Speaker 2: still has that reach discrepancy here. Tanara is also on

546
00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 2: the supplements, and I don't think she's gonna slow down

547
00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:20,960
Speaker 2: ever across fifteen minutes, maybe not even across twenty five.

548
00:26:21,200 --> 00:26:25,199
Speaker 2: The concerns there cardio wise formally still exist. At one

549
00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:28,520
Speaker 2: hundred and fifteen pounds. I think Tainara pre fight goes

550
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:31,440
Speaker 2: or wins by decision, and I think live after round

551
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:34,239
Speaker 2: one you could better money line in the event that

552
00:26:34,320 --> 00:26:41,520
Speaker 2: Molly slows down. Morgan Charier against Nathaniel Wood, Charier about

553
00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:44,640
Speaker 2: plus three hundred to win inside the distance I saw

554
00:26:44,680 --> 00:26:47,280
Speaker 2: as low as minus one twenty five minus one thirty

555
00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:49,640
Speaker 2: on the money line. Today, I make his money line

556
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:51,680
Speaker 2: closer to minus one forty five BILLI We'll get into

557
00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:53,679
Speaker 2: that fight a little bit more in a bit, but

558
00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:57,919
Speaker 2: big discrepancy and durability between these two. Wood Is, the

559
00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:01,439
Speaker 2: more technical fighter, should put out more output across a

560
00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:05,200
Speaker 2: fifteen minute fight, but Charier, vastly more finishing upside made

561
00:27:05,240 --> 00:27:07,880
Speaker 2: his finish line about plus two seventy five. I saw

562
00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:11,040
Speaker 2: plus three hundred. I also made his knockout prop around

563
00:27:11,040 --> 00:27:14,160
Speaker 2: plus three seventy five and saw plus four twenty five.

564
00:27:14,200 --> 00:27:17,360
Speaker 2: So Morgan Cherier to win inside the distance, Wood keeps

565
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:19,719
Speaker 2: going to a decision. I think that is likely to

566
00:27:19,880 --> 00:27:21,800
Speaker 2: end at some point soon in that streak. And then

567
00:27:21,840 --> 00:27:25,840
Speaker 2: finally the heavyweight fight between are Scene Tybura and Mick

568
00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:28,120
Speaker 2: Parkin to go to a decision at minus one twenty five.

569
00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:32,800
Speaker 2: I think Parkin has enough defensive grappling to be able

570
00:27:32,800 --> 00:27:35,640
Speaker 2: to neutralize Tybura here, but I don't think he has

571
00:27:35,680 --> 00:27:38,040
Speaker 2: the power to be able to hurt Tybera or the

572
00:27:38,040 --> 00:27:40,920
Speaker 2: athleticism to be able to hurt Tibura like the other

573
00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:44,720
Speaker 2: opponents who have hurt Tebera recently or finished tiber recently.

574
00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:47,360
Speaker 2: Parkin is ten years younger, He's quicker, but I don't

575
00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:49,800
Speaker 2: view him as a particularly good athlete.

576
00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:50,920
Speaker 3: I made this fight about.

577
00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:54,000
Speaker 2: Minus one sixty to reach a decision, Happy to bet

578
00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:56,919
Speaker 2: it at minus one twenty five, Billy, I know we

579
00:27:56,920 --> 00:27:58,960
Speaker 2: were going to get to the Cherier fight in a minute.

580
00:27:59,000 --> 00:28:01,360
Speaker 2: Put first, any thoughts in the ten Ara McCann fight.

581
00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:03,240
Speaker 2: We're on the Perkin Temboro fight.

582
00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:07,120
Speaker 4: Yeah, only slight pushback on the decision line is Tanara

583
00:28:07,200 --> 00:28:09,919
Speaker 4: is coming in on short notice. Molly McCann was supposed

584
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:12,280
Speaker 4: to have a much easier match up here for the

585
00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:14,919
Speaker 4: fight in London as they like to give her, and

586
00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:18,119
Speaker 4: then the other point I broke her down for the

587
00:28:18,119 --> 00:28:21,800
Speaker 4: Contender Series, Tanar's fight against the Brazilian national wrestling champion.

588
00:28:22,440 --> 00:28:25,840
Speaker 4: I don't know how much women's wrestling happens in Brazil.

589
00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:28,040
Speaker 4: I don't mean to say that, like, you know, they

590
00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:30,720
Speaker 4: don't have good grapplers there, but with jiu jitsu being

591
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:32,800
Speaker 4: as popular as it is, I don't know that like

592
00:28:33,160 --> 00:28:35,080
Speaker 4: that's even a thing, you know. So if you're the

593
00:28:35,080 --> 00:28:38,280
Speaker 4: women's national wrestling champion but there's only three women in

594
00:28:38,320 --> 00:28:40,960
Speaker 4: the country and your weight class actually trying, I don't

595
00:28:40,960 --> 00:28:43,080
Speaker 4: know how much that means. I'm not saying her opponent

596
00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:46,560
Speaker 4: wasn't a good wrestler, but don't draw too many conclusions

597
00:28:46,560 --> 00:28:49,520
Speaker 4: from that. And yeah, I love your the classic heavyweight

598
00:28:49,560 --> 00:28:53,320
Speaker 4: over to not super explosive guys. Sure, I mean I don't.

599
00:28:53,640 --> 00:28:55,960
Speaker 4: I don't want to watch that fight necessarily, so rooting

600
00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:57,720
Speaker 4: for it to go the distance is kind of like

601
00:28:57,760 --> 00:28:59,880
Speaker 4: a weird, weird fun way to go.

602
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:03,080
Speaker 2: Gonna be a lot of hugging on the ground, hopefully.

603
00:29:03,640 --> 00:29:06,920
Speaker 2: The only Brazilian National wrestling champion I can remember in

604
00:29:06,960 --> 00:29:10,720
Speaker 2: the UFC is how many Barcellos and Barcello's was really

605
00:29:10,800 --> 00:29:15,680
Speaker 2: well rounded, phenomenal skill set striking and grappling, and you

606
00:29:15,880 --> 00:29:19,120
Speaker 2: rarely see the guys who can mix the two together.

607
00:29:19,160 --> 00:29:22,280
Speaker 2: He just upset Peyton Talbot is a humongous underdog. County

608
00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:26,320
Speaker 2: Barcello is still doing it at age forty thirty seven,

609
00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:29,320
Speaker 2: Hounty Barcells He looks like he's forty, but you know

610
00:29:29,360 --> 00:29:32,240
Speaker 2: it's it's kind of that being able to combine the

611
00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:35,760
Speaker 2: jiu jitsu with the wrestling gives you a very high floor.

612
00:29:35,760 --> 00:29:39,000
Speaker 2: Even hodolfha Viira like a better wrestler than you typically

613
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:41,480
Speaker 2: see from these jiu jitsu guys. When you have that

614
00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:43,640
Speaker 2: skill set and you can also wrestle, it gives you

615
00:29:43,640 --> 00:29:46,080
Speaker 2: a big advantage. I don't know if Tainara has the

616
00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:48,080
Speaker 2: jiu jitsu skill set, though I think I think she

617
00:29:48,200 --> 00:29:50,640
Speaker 2: has the wrestling. I actually don't think she has the

618
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:53,000
Speaker 2: other half of it, which is the jiu jitsu. Like,

619
00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:55,080
Speaker 2: did you kind of notice that too? She seems to

620
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:57,760
Speaker 2: have trouble passing. She was letting her opponent up. It

621
00:29:57,800 --> 00:30:00,320
Speaker 2: was almost like she wasn't interested in being on the

622
00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:02,160
Speaker 2: ground when she actually got the fight there. But she

623
00:30:02,280 --> 00:30:04,880
Speaker 2: is the power to put the fight wherever she wants it.

624
00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:06,320
Speaker 2: Did you kind of notice that too, Like her jiu

625
00:30:06,360 --> 00:30:07,360
Speaker 2: jitsu wasn't confident.

626
00:30:08,680 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 4: Yes, And like to add to that, I don't even

627
00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:13,640
Speaker 4: know if her wrestling is technically that solid or she's

628
00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:16,960
Speaker 4: just so much stronger and more explosive than everyone, because like,

629
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:19,680
Speaker 4: if neither of us can wrestle, but I'm ways stronger

630
00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:22,600
Speaker 4: than you, I'm probably gonna get the takedown. But to

631
00:30:22,600 --> 00:30:25,200
Speaker 4: add to that, I would imagine that women's wrestling is

632
00:30:25,240 --> 00:30:27,920
Speaker 4: even smaller than men's wrestling in Brazil, Like we just

633
00:30:28,000 --> 00:30:30,800
Speaker 4: got women's wrestling in a lot of states here as

634
00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:34,360
Speaker 4: its own sport. So yeah, I just doubt how much

635
00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:37,840
Speaker 4: those credentials actually matter. Leinard didn't do anything super like,

636
00:30:37,880 --> 00:30:40,640
Speaker 4: she wasn't chained wrestling and hitting switches or anything like that.

637
00:30:40,720 --> 00:30:42,840
Speaker 4: She kind of just I'm stronger than you and I

638
00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:45,600
Speaker 4: put you down. That'll work against Molly mccannono though, so

639
00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:48,440
Speaker 4: doesn't have too much impact on this fight.

640
00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:51,840
Speaker 2: Four more fights we're going to talk about very briefly

641
00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:53,320
Speaker 2: before we get out of here. I do want to

642
00:30:53,360 --> 00:30:56,800
Speaker 2: backtrack to that Morgan Cherrier Nathaniel would fight? Is Billy

643
00:30:56,920 --> 00:30:59,480
Speaker 2: one of your best bets for this week? Morgan Cherrier

644
00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:02,120
Speaker 2: on the money line at minus one forty two? What

645
00:31:02,160 --> 00:31:02,920
Speaker 2: did you see in this one?

646
00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:05,600
Speaker 4: Yeah? I mean similar to what you did. He has

647
00:31:05,640 --> 00:31:08,959
Speaker 4: all the finishing upside. I looked at the finish only market,

648
00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:12,360
Speaker 4: but it's like minus two twenty or something. I would

649
00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:15,760
Speaker 4: rather just play his money line much better, Striker. His

650
00:31:15,840 --> 00:31:19,080
Speaker 4: takedown defense has been solid. What really sold me though,

651
00:31:19,160 --> 00:31:22,120
Speaker 4: is he like maybe won that split decision against Chepe

652
00:31:22,240 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 4: Marskal and Marscall is pretty much dominated everybody else and

653
00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:29,280
Speaker 4: would It's weird to say that he's a tweener between

654
00:31:29,280 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 4: thirty five and forty five because it's only a ten

655
00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:34,360
Speaker 4: pound gap, but he is just not physical enough at

656
00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:38,400
Speaker 4: forty five to really separate from anyone. Consistently. He's been

657
00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:41,200
Speaker 4: good and he's gotten it done a weird, weird amount

658
00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:43,320
Speaker 4: of power against guys who wouldn't expect him to have.

659
00:31:44,360 --> 00:31:46,520
Speaker 4: I don't see that working against the much bigger, stronger,

660
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:50,360
Speaker 4: more athletic Sharrier. So the floor for Charier, he is

661
00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:53,360
Speaker 4: like a close decision lost because would sneaks and takedowns

662
00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:56,360
Speaker 4: in anything other than that, I think he wins pretty easily,

663
00:31:57,160 --> 00:31:59,960
Speaker 4: and they're both European, and you would imagine the judges

664
00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:02,800
Speaker 4: aren't too swayed either way. I know what is obviously

665
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:05,000
Speaker 4: closer as line. I don't know how many French people

666
00:32:05,000 --> 00:32:07,120
Speaker 4: come to the fight or whatever, so I won't dig

667
00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:09,600
Speaker 4: into that too much, but I think Cherry Are looks

668
00:32:09,640 --> 00:32:10,720
Speaker 4: like a heavier favorite here.

669
00:32:11,840 --> 00:32:15,040
Speaker 2: The underdog that I mentioned before that we had consensus

670
00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:18,280
Speaker 2: agreement on just the slight underdog, but Kevin Holland at

671
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:22,120
Speaker 2: plus one ten plus one oh five against Gunner Nelson,

672
00:32:22,600 --> 00:32:25,240
Speaker 2: big reach advantage, nine inch reach advantage here at Nelson

673
00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:29,520
Speaker 2: also coming back from a two year layoff, thirty seven

674
00:32:29,600 --> 00:32:31,719
Speaker 2: years old, not sure what he's going to look like physically,

675
00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:34,400
Speaker 2: and Holland has also looked much better anytime he goes

676
00:32:34,440 --> 00:32:36,440
Speaker 2: to one to seventy than when he's been fighting at

677
00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:38,920
Speaker 2: one eighty five. His takedown defense is typically better, he

678
00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:43,880
Speaker 2: looks much stronger, had no issue on the scales on Friday,

679
00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:46,000
Speaker 2: So we're in alignment here on Kevin Holland at plus

680
00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:49,560
Speaker 2: one ten to get the damage done against Guttar Nelson.

681
00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:50,720
Speaker 2: Billy break that one down.

682
00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:54,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean we almost need to talk about Kevin

683
00:32:54,320 --> 00:32:56,320
Speaker 4: Holland as if they're two different people. Like the show

684
00:32:56,320 --> 00:33:00,360
Speaker 4: Aotani better show Heyo tany pitcher in fantasy baseball. It's

685
00:33:00,440 --> 00:33:04,440
Speaker 4: Kevin Holland welterweight and Kevin Holland middleweight our separate entities.

686
00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:06,400
Speaker 4: Because if he was fighting one hundred and eighty five

687
00:33:06,400 --> 00:33:08,960
Speaker 4: pound version of Gunnar Nelson, I'd make him like plus

688
00:33:08,960 --> 00:33:11,160
Speaker 4: two fifty or something in this fight to just get

689
00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:14,640
Speaker 4: dominated by the grappling people. Don't grapple him at one

690
00:33:14,720 --> 00:33:17,400
Speaker 4: seventy Like he's got the reach in the distance management

691
00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:19,720
Speaker 4: the way I talked about with Olberg. And he also

692
00:33:19,760 --> 00:33:23,040
Speaker 4: seems like a very strong and explosive welterweight and can

693
00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:25,880
Speaker 4: kind of just body people on the ground. So yeah,

694
00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:29,760
Speaker 4: welterweight Kevin Holland should be a significant favorite here. Middleweight

695
00:33:29,840 --> 00:33:32,400
Speaker 4: Kevin Holland would be a big underdog. Fortunately it is

696
00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:35,000
Speaker 4: welterweight Kevin Holland who's fighting, So I'm all over that.

697
00:33:35,520 --> 00:33:37,760
Speaker 2: What is there like a sixty pound weight difference between

698
00:33:37,760 --> 00:33:40,880
Speaker 2: Gunnard Nelson and Reiner de Ritter? I mean, it's like

699
00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:43,320
Speaker 2: a third of a person, right, It's like a third

700
00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:47,640
Speaker 2: of Gunnar Nelson's size less. Yeah, that's a big difference.

701
00:33:47,640 --> 00:33:50,480
Speaker 4: Holland, Say, who he fought before that is a big

702
00:33:50,600 --> 00:33:54,320
Speaker 4: dude or hamzat Chremaiah who he fought it kind of middleweight,

703
00:33:54,400 --> 00:33:55,520
Speaker 4: but you know, like all those.

704
00:33:55,440 --> 00:33:56,400
Speaker 3: Dudes, yep.

705
00:33:56,440 --> 00:33:58,600
Speaker 2: And anytime he goes back down to one seventy, he's

706
00:33:58,600 --> 00:34:00,920
Speaker 2: just very easily able to easily.

707
00:34:00,560 --> 00:34:02,640
Speaker 3: Able to deny the takedowns. But he doesn't even go

708
00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:03,360
Speaker 3: to the ground.

709
00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 2: He seems to stay up in the clinch, fights the

710
00:34:05,920 --> 00:34:08,960
Speaker 2: hands and escapes. I do think Gunnar Nelson will get

711
00:34:09,000 --> 00:34:11,040
Speaker 2: him down here at points, maybe even win a round,

712
00:34:11,080 --> 00:34:15,600
Speaker 2: get back control, etc. But Gunner doesn't land any damage.

713
00:34:15,760 --> 00:34:18,560
Speaker 2: He probably needs a submission in order to win the

714
00:34:18,560 --> 00:34:22,480
Speaker 2: fight clean. Otherwise he's gonna need extended control ten plus

715
00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 2: minutes of control in order to win the fight without

716
00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:28,160
Speaker 2: taking damage. So yeah, Holland likely to land damage, likely

717
00:34:28,360 --> 00:34:32,080
Speaker 2: to land strikes if he's interested in actually fighting. You know,

718
00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:35,080
Speaker 2: sometimes he gets taken down and he starts like trash

719
00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:37,520
Speaker 2: talking his opponent. He knows he's in the body triangle

720
00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:38,920
Speaker 2: and can't get out of it. You're just like you

721
00:34:38,920 --> 00:34:40,960
Speaker 2: can at least try to like scramble up, but he doesn't.

722
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:42,960
Speaker 2: He's just gonna lay there and joke with the guy

723
00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:44,120
Speaker 2: until the end of the round. So he could be

724
00:34:44,120 --> 00:34:46,600
Speaker 2: a little frustrating to bet on, But I do think

725
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:49,839
Speaker 2: he has the skills at this weight class against this

726
00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:52,680
Speaker 2: style of fighter. This guy who's not cutting weight right.

727
00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:54,640
Speaker 2: Gunner is small for the weight class. It's not like

728
00:34:54,680 --> 00:34:57,839
Speaker 2: he's even a full welterweight. I think Gutter is on

729
00:34:57,920 --> 00:35:01,000
Speaker 2: the lightweight side of wealter weights. Big size advantage for

730
00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:04,120
Speaker 2: Kevin Holland here a couple of money ones I want

731
00:35:04,160 --> 00:35:06,960
Speaker 2: to give out before we jump off for this evening.

732
00:35:07,520 --> 00:35:11,520
Speaker 2: Kaylan lafferin at about minus one oh five against Nathan

733
00:35:11,520 --> 00:35:15,160
Speaker 2: Fletcher talked about Nathan Fletcher when we interviewed Patty pimblet.

734
00:35:15,239 --> 00:35:18,200
Speaker 2: We saw him imposed his style in his first UFC fight.

735
00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:21,879
Speaker 2: Did get dropped cut open in that first fight, ended

736
00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:24,800
Speaker 2: up finding the back though getting the rear naked choke submission.

737
00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:28,319
Speaker 2: And he has an amateur win over Kayln Laufern as

738
00:35:28,360 --> 00:35:31,400
Speaker 2: well from twenty eighteen where he mostly just controlled that

739
00:35:31,440 --> 00:35:34,680
Speaker 2: fight on the map. But in terms of physicality improvement,

740
00:35:34,719 --> 00:35:39,319
Speaker 2: athleticism improvement. I think Lauferin is much bigger, much stronger

741
00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:42,479
Speaker 2: than they he was the first time they fought. He's

742
00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 2: two inch reach advantage, two years younger. I think the

743
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:50,360
Speaker 2: striking is so clear in his favor that Fletcher almost

744
00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:52,920
Speaker 2: needs the win via submission or again, as I said

745
00:35:53,320 --> 00:35:55,520
Speaker 2: with the last fight, I think he needs like ten

746
00:35:55,520 --> 00:35:58,440
Speaker 2: plus minutes of control in order to win a decision

747
00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:00,919
Speaker 2: here because the striking is going to be one way

748
00:36:00,960 --> 00:36:05,040
Speaker 2: traffic in favor of Lawfern projected him close to minus

749
00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:08,280
Speaker 2: one sixteen, happy to bet killing Laufern up to minus

750
00:36:08,280 --> 00:36:12,160
Speaker 2: one ten. And then Jai Herbert against Taco Padilla. Jai

751
00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:15,080
Speaker 2: as a four treach advantage. He's four ins taller. He's

752
00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:18,200
Speaker 2: a three inchreach advantage. Uses his length really well. All

753
00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:20,279
Speaker 2: of his losses in the UFC are at a high

754
00:36:20,400 --> 00:36:25,520
Speaker 2: level competition. He almost finished Iliotaporia. He's very powerful, but

755
00:36:25,560 --> 00:36:28,840
Speaker 2: Patia's basically just high rolled the couple of wins against

756
00:36:28,880 --> 00:36:31,320
Speaker 2: guys who I think if they were in extended fights,

757
00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:35,080
Speaker 2: you would have seen the skill set disparity play out

758
00:36:35,280 --> 00:36:40,360
Speaker 2: where quick finishes not necessarily repeatable. Jai Herbert is a

759
00:36:40,360 --> 00:36:43,080
Speaker 2: little bit questionable in terms of the durability. Could absolutely

760
00:36:43,120 --> 00:36:45,920
Speaker 2: see Padilla clipping him or getting him down to the ground.

761
00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:50,560
Speaker 2: But I do think a lot of Padilla's line being

762
00:36:50,600 --> 00:36:53,480
Speaker 2: here around to pick them price is baking in grappling

763
00:36:53,560 --> 00:36:56,439
Speaker 2: upside and the fact where the factor that he could

764
00:36:56,520 --> 00:37:00,560
Speaker 2: potentially outgrapple Jai and win this fight via grappling. I

765
00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:03,360
Speaker 2: don't really think Padilla is a better grappler than Ludovic

766
00:37:03,440 --> 00:37:07,360
Speaker 2: Kleinji Herbert probably wins that fight without a point getting

767
00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:09,879
Speaker 2: taken away. You've also seen from Gi and we've talked

768
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:13,120
Speaker 2: about this in recent weeks. You've seen Jai offensively grappling

769
00:37:13,239 --> 00:37:14,880
Speaker 2: a little bit more in recent fights. I think his

770
00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:16,280
Speaker 2: defensive grappling has improved.

771
00:37:16,280 --> 00:37:17,080
Speaker 3: But once you see.

772
00:37:16,920 --> 00:37:20,080
Speaker 2: Guys mixing in offensive takedowns of their own, it really

773
00:37:20,160 --> 00:37:23,000
Speaker 2: shows their confidence in the grappling side of their game.

774
00:37:23,080 --> 00:37:25,719
Speaker 2: So this guy's a really good kickboxer. I think the grappling,

775
00:37:25,719 --> 00:37:29,200
Speaker 2: the defensive grappling is leveled up to a point where

776
00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:31,600
Speaker 2: he should be a favorite in this fight. Just Padilla

777
00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:35,200
Speaker 2: younger has that grappling upside. I see the arguments. I

778
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:37,759
Speaker 2: just don't think his wins his first two wins in

779
00:37:37,800 --> 00:37:42,560
Speaker 2: the UFC or Uber repeatable, Billy Kayling Lawferin against Nathan Fletcher,

780
00:37:43,000 --> 00:37:45,839
Speaker 2: Jai Herbert against Takobadilla. Any thoughts on either of those

781
00:37:45,840 --> 00:37:46,960
Speaker 2: two fights before we get out of.

782
00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:49,880
Speaker 4: Here, not strong thoughts, but I will note they are

783
00:37:50,560 --> 00:37:53,080
Speaker 4: right next to each other in price on DFS, and

784
00:37:53,160 --> 00:37:56,880
Speaker 4: I needed one of I'm sorry, Padilla and Lafren all

785
00:37:56,960 --> 00:37:59,440
Speaker 4: right next to each other in price in DFS, and

786
00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:01,800
Speaker 4: I needed one of those guys surround out my cash lineup.

787
00:38:01,920 --> 00:38:04,520
Speaker 4: So I am by all means you have tipped me

788
00:38:04,560 --> 00:38:06,360
Speaker 4: over to the Laffern side. I think it was a

789
00:38:06,400 --> 00:38:10,520
Speaker 4: slight lean there anyway. Arguably I projected them within likeero

790
00:38:10,520 --> 00:38:12,680
Speaker 4: point two points of each other when I did the projection,

791
00:38:12,880 --> 00:38:15,480
Speaker 4: so you know it was close. But you have tipped

792
00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:17,440
Speaker 4: the hand for me, So that will hopefully pay off

793
00:38:17,440 --> 00:38:19,200
Speaker 4: for me in my cash lineups this weekend.

794
00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:24,040
Speaker 2: I was gonna say cash I would go Laffering. For tournaments,

795
00:38:24,040 --> 00:38:25,960
Speaker 2: I would go Padia because I think Padilla has more

796
00:38:26,000 --> 00:38:30,120
Speaker 2: finishing up siding Lafferin. Not that I trust Nathan Fletcher's

797
00:38:30,120 --> 00:38:32,759
Speaker 2: striking defense, and you know Wafferd could absolutely finish him.

798
00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:36,000
Speaker 2: I just think Padilla has more finishing upsideing Lawfern. So yeah,

799
00:38:36,040 --> 00:38:38,880
Speaker 2: between the two, I think that would be the point

800
00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:42,080
Speaker 2: of demarcation, is tournament versus cash game? Any other thoughts

801
00:38:42,120 --> 00:38:43,680
Speaker 2: billion any of these fights?

802
00:38:44,640 --> 00:38:46,279
Speaker 4: I think did we hit all of them this time?

803
00:38:46,320 --> 00:38:48,960
Speaker 2: I know you touched me, came very close to thirteen

804
00:38:49,000 --> 00:38:53,479
Speaker 2: fight card, and I think we might have hit every

805
00:38:53,480 --> 00:38:56,680
Speaker 2: single fight. We got to re card, and so that'll

806
00:38:56,719 --> 00:38:58,480
Speaker 2: do it for us for this UFC betting preview. You

807
00:38:58,480 --> 00:39:00,839
Speaker 2: can find more UFC betting con ten for both Billy

808
00:39:00,920 --> 00:39:03,680
Speaker 2: and myself both on actionework dot com and in the

809
00:39:03,680 --> 00:39:05,560
Speaker 2: Action Network Gap. And if you'd like to instantly tail

810
00:39:05,600 --> 00:39:07,799
Speaker 2: some of the bets so we've discussed on today's show,

811
00:39:07,800 --> 00:39:10,279
Speaker 2: look for the flips and links in the podcast and

812
00:39:10,360 --> 00:39:14,359
Speaker 2: the video description, or visit actionnetwork dot com slash bet now.

813
00:39:14,400 --> 00:39:17,040
Speaker 2: Don't forget to download the free award winning Action Network

814
00:39:17,040 --> 00:39:19,760
Speaker 2: Gap and sign up for Action Pro for immediate access

815
00:39:19,800 --> 00:39:22,520
Speaker 2: to expert picks and analysis. Best of luck with all

816
00:39:22,520 --> 00:39:25,320
Speaker 2: your bets this weekend, enjoy the violence, Thank you for listening.

817
00:39:25,480 --> 00:39:26,080
Speaker 3: See you next time.

818
00:39:35,080 --> 00:39:38,560
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819
00:39:38,960 --> 00:39:41,880
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820
00:39:42,080 --> 00:39:44,719
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821
00:39:44,760 --> 00:39:45,600
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