Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carl Masser. Every day
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Speaker 1: Global News. Well, as we deal with this pandemic, there
Speaker 1: are so many things to talk about as it relates
Speaker 1: to the healthcare aspect of it. Lots of things are changing.
Speaker 1: We're not going into offices, we are telemedicine is taking
Speaker 1: a big source of growth for the healthcare business. To
Speaker 1: chat about all of the changes, plus the virus, plus
Speaker 1: any potential vaccines, we are very pleased to welcome Dr
Speaker 1: Caleb Alexander, Professor of eponymology from Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School
Speaker 1: of Public Health. He joins us on the phone from
Speaker 1: Charms City, Baltimore, Maryland. Dr Alexander, thanks so much for
Speaker 1: joining us here. Let's start with the latest on the numbers.
Speaker 1: Carol and I were just uh talking about the really
Speaker 1: negative trends we're seeing coming out of Europe, uh and
Speaker 1: even in certain parts of the United States. What's your
Speaker 1: take on what we're seeing right now. Well, there's thank
Speaker 1: you for having me, Carol and Paul. It's a real privilege.
Speaker 1: And I should say that there's a lot of concern
Speaker 1: about the way the trends are going. And you know,
Speaker 1: we've been talking for some time about the potential for
Speaker 1: a third waves, if you will, as the weather cools,
Speaker 1: as people start start spending more time in verse as
Speaker 1: some of us are starting to feel a little bit
Speaker 1: more pandemic fatigue. And indeed, the numbers are are not
Speaker 1: looking good. In other words, we're seeing rising rates of
Speaker 1: infections and in some parts of the country corresponding increases
Speaker 1: in numbers of hospitations or deaths. And it's um it's
Speaker 1: keeping a lot of people awake at night. I can
Speaker 1: tell you that well. And I do wonder we didn't
Speaker 1: have the playbook right the first time around. We were
Speaker 1: all kind of learning as we go and in many
Speaker 1: cases scrambling just to keep up. I do under Dr Alexander,
Speaker 1: What have we learned from the past six or seven months,
Speaker 1: certainly when it comes to treatment and certainly when it
Speaker 1: comes to keeping things under control or in check if
Speaker 1: we can, well, we know an enormous amount more about
Speaker 1: the virus itself. We understand a lot more about how
Speaker 1: it how it does damage to the human body, and
Speaker 1: we certainly have made headway and identifying uh some potential
Speaker 1: treatments that do have an important role to play. So
Speaker 1: we do have a lot, a lot more options than
Speaker 1: we did in in January or February. And I think
Speaker 1: we've also had plenty of time to understand how the
Speaker 1: virus is transmitted and what sort of public health pleasures
Speaker 1: can be used to prevent such transmission. And I suppose
Speaker 1: is one of the most remarkable things is that despite
Speaker 1: amount of time we've had, and despite the amount that
Speaker 1: we know, and despite the amount of scientific consensus about
Speaker 1: things such as mask wearing, that we still had uh
Speaker 1: such a debate about that and and in some cases
Speaker 1: um lose sight of the science and lose sight of
Speaker 1: of what we know about how this virus infects people
Speaker 1: and kills people. Can I just ask you, do you
Speaker 1: think that sending everybody back to school, kids back to
Speaker 1: school has been a mistake. Well, I mean, it's taken
Speaker 1: place differently in parts of the country, and I think
Speaker 1: that that's what should be happening. In other words, Uh,
Speaker 1: you know, there's a lot of variation county to county,
Speaker 1: city to city, school district to school district in the
Speaker 1: extent of community spread of the virus. And frankly, I
Speaker 1: think schools differ in how well equipped they are to
Speaker 1: manage that. So there are certainly some districts where I
Speaker 1: don't think that it's a great idea for children to
Speaker 1: be in in classrooms face to face, and there are
Speaker 1: other districts that I think are are managing it with
Speaker 1: a large number of accommodations. And so it's it's it's
Speaker 1: really an area where we can set consistent, evidence based
Speaker 1: guidelines for how schools and school systems should manage this,
Speaker 1: but the application of those guidelines really has to be
Speaker 1: fit for purpose within individual communities. Doctor. On the vaccine front,
Speaker 1: what is your understanding of how this might play out?
Speaker 1: There are so many companies pursuing so many different vaccines
Speaker 1: and therapeutics for that matter. Um, and I'm sure that
Speaker 1: the folks at Johns Hopkins are right in the middle
Speaker 1: of all of that. How do you think this is
Speaker 1: going to plan over the next three six months? Yeah,
Speaker 1: well it's it's gonna be a good problem to have
Speaker 1: if and when we have multiple vaccines on the market.
Speaker 1: And you're right that there are many, many in different
Speaker 1: stages of development. Uh, several that are in late stage development.
Speaker 1: And the best estimates that I've heard, the most credible
Speaker 1: estimates are that by late this year or early next year,
Speaker 1: we may have one or more that have what's called
Speaker 1: emergency use authorization. That's a designation by the Food and
Speaker 1: Drug Administration that's not it falls short of full approval,
Speaker 1: but it allows for a product to be used on
Speaker 1: the market. And if and when that happens, you know,
Speaker 1: not everybody needs to be vaccinated in one self swoop.
Speaker 1: We won't have enough product to do so. And frankly,
Speaker 1: there are some people that are much greater risk, either
Speaker 1: because of their occupations or because of their their comorbid conditions,
Speaker 1: that diseases they have, how old they are, So they're
Speaker 1: going to be different tiers of people that really needed
Speaker 1: early and people that can wait eight and and and
Speaker 1: don't have such a pressing need. But we really need
Speaker 1: to do everything we can to ensure that that science
Speaker 1: that the scientists and public health professions are are are
Speaker 1: are to do their jobs. And we're fortunate to have
Speaker 1: uh such a good drug administration, and they really need
Speaker 1: to be to be uh regulating these products and governing
Speaker 1: their access market. So Dr Alexander, I do wonder though
Speaker 1: about the upcoming array of vaccines that we will get
Speaker 1: and do we as patients consumers ultimately will we be
Speaker 1: taking multiple vaccines? Are are we going to at some
Speaker 1: point have some medical guidance that says this is the
Speaker 1: kind of vaccine you should be taking versus somebody else
Speaker 1: takes a different vaccine. Help me understand this, well, it's
Speaker 1: a great question. And if and when we get to
Speaker 1: a point where we have multiple vaccines that are on
Speaker 1: the market, and again I would say that that's going
Speaker 1: to be a good problem to have. If that happens,
Speaker 1: uh it, they will no doubt have some differences. They
Speaker 1: may have differences and how effective they are, They have
Speaker 1: slightly different side effect profiles, they may differ in terms
Speaker 1: of how well tolerated they are. And I think that
Speaker 1: it's it's plausible when they first come out. We're not
Speaker 1: necessarily going to know if one vaccine is better than
Speaker 1: another in a particular instance, but we certainly will as
Speaker 1: as time goes on, have information regarding the relative importance
Speaker 1: of the different vaccines, and rest assured, the Centers for
Speaker 1: Disease Control and Prevention and other professional governmental organizations will
Speaker 1: be looking carefully to develop and disseminate guidance for people
Speaker 1: regarding which vaccine is right. Doctor. It's interesting and just
Speaker 1: as we were talking here, Sam Fazeli, who is our
Speaker 1: senior pharmaceutical and health care analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. He's
Speaker 1: based in London, he just message me and he said,
Speaker 1: if you have a vaccine with maybe six effectiveness and
Speaker 1: only the people take it, is it even worth it
Speaker 1: to go down the vaccine route. Well, there's a huge push.
Speaker 1: I mean, it's it's very very very important that when
Speaker 1: vaccines hit them that they uh that they're that they're
Speaker 1: used and and rest as short, there will be uh
Speaker 1: huge push to try to encourage people to use them
Speaker 1: because we're not going to achieve what is called herd immunity,
Speaker 1: in other words, having enough people vaccinated so that essentially
Speaker 1: society is protected and the COVID virus does transmit easily
Speaker 1: within communities unless there's widespread vaccine adoption. And so you know,
Speaker 1: if there are multiple different products on the market, if
Speaker 1: they're multiple different vaccines, another benefit of that is that
Speaker 1: there's going to be uh demand that will far outstrips supply,
Speaker 1: even if there's some some subet of the population that
Speaker 1: that doesn't want the vaccine for one reason or another.
Speaker 1: And by having multiple manufacturers that are producing the vaccines
Speaker 1: will have a better chance of achieving that that that
Speaker 1: target of of what's called herd immunity, in other words,
Speaker 1: enough people getting vaccinated that the virus can no longer
Speaker 1: simply jump person to person within communities. So okay, and
Speaker 1: I have to say, Dr Alexander, I do think about
Speaker 1: is this our world now and we're going to have
Speaker 1: similar type viruses that are really tough and very contagious
Speaker 1: and very lethal. Um, is this our future? Well, we're
Speaker 1: going to get through this. I mean, I the the
Speaker 1: you know, I think that the general scientific insensus is that,
Speaker 1: you know, we're not going to be with this in February.
Speaker 1: So don't get your hopes up whether or not there's
Speaker 1: one or more vaccines on the market. And it may
Speaker 1: be that there's some uh, some lingering COVID years down
Speaker 1: the line, just as we have what's called seasonal influenza
Speaker 1: seasonal flu But we will get through this. We we
Speaker 1: will not rest as short in a few years. We
Speaker 1: will not all be uh you know, wearing masks to
Speaker 1: the supermarket and conducting as much engagement as we can
Speaker 1: by by computing telephone. So there's not going to be
Speaker 1: a COVID like two. That's a whole new variation. No, no,
Speaker 1: I mean it seriously, just got about twenty seconds. Yeah, well,
Speaker 1: I think you know, we look back, the last major
Speaker 1: pandemic worldwide was nineteen eighteen, nineteen nineteen, and I think
Speaker 1: the the the best estimates and expectations are that, uh,
Speaker 1: within twelve to eighteen months, that will be in a
Speaker 1: significantly better place than we are right now. All right,
Speaker 1: that's some optimism I can certainly use on this Thursday.
Speaker 1: So thank you so much. Dr Caleb Alexander, Professor of
Speaker 1: Epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health,
Speaker 1: joining us on the phone from Baltimore, and of course
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg School of Public House supported by Michael R. Bloomberg,
Speaker 1: founder of Bloomberg LP. This is Bloomberg Business Week with
Speaker 1: Carol Messer from Bloomberg Radio. Well, Robin Hood Paul. Definitely
Speaker 1: one of the COVID economy's breakout successes. Right, We've talked
Speaker 1: a lot about it. Um it can take advantage those
Speaker 1: who use it of volatility in the marketplace. It also
Speaker 1: can create volatility, I think in the marketplace. But I
Speaker 1: feel like now it has to figure out what it
Speaker 1: wants to be. Yeah, when it grows up. It is
Speaker 1: this week's cover story the magazine. Let's get more from
Speaker 1: Bloomberg News investing reporter Any Massa. She's on the phone
Speaker 1: in New York City. Also here Bloomberg Business Week editor
Speaker 1: Joel Weber on the phone in Brooklyn. I mean, we know, Joel,
Speaker 1: the millennials, they're pretty addicted to this one. And this
Speaker 1: has been, like you've kind of hinted at there, it's
Speaker 1: been sort of one of the stories of the pandemic.
Speaker 1: It's just how day trading became the thing that has
Speaker 1: been captivating people on their phones for months now, and
Speaker 1: it's made people be doing things that are sometimes a
Speaker 1: little bit crazier than what they would have probably otherwise
Speaker 1: been doing simply because there's nothing else going on that
Speaker 1: looks like an entertainment in the same way, and so
Speaker 1: it basically almost become robin Hood especially has almost become
Speaker 1: sort of part of this like financial entertainment ecosystem during
Speaker 1: the pandemic. And so we've been watching it UM along
Speaker 1: the way and any Maza has been breaking a ton
Speaker 1: of news, and we wanted to kind of put it
Speaker 1: all together and just say, like, look, this is a
Speaker 1: robin It is now officially a pandemic pastime UM. But
Speaker 1: the question becomes, where do they go from here? I think,
Speaker 1: what's the plan? Where? How do you take something that
Speaker 1: you know, they popularize free training, trading, fractional shares of
Speaker 1: ownership now, but where do you go from from there?
Speaker 1: And any what did you find out as you tried
Speaker 1: to ask that question? Yeah, that was a major question
Speaker 1: we were trying to figure out because robin hood has
Speaker 1: proved so amazing. I just get people onto its platform
Speaker 1: like it's spread like wildfire, um signing up three million
Speaker 1: users in the first four months of the year alone,
Speaker 1: and so we were kind of asking, um, what's the
Speaker 1: next act for robin Hood? And when you look at
Speaker 1: it the way that they're pitching themselves to be investors.
Speaker 1: They say, Okay, we get these first time traders in
Speaker 1: the door, and then the next step for us is
Speaker 1: to have them grow with us into all kinds of
Speaker 1: other products that robin Hood doesn't offer yet, but things
Speaker 1: like one day they'll want us for mortgage lending or
Speaker 1: car and rental insurance or life insurance. Even so, they
Speaker 1: have much bigger, much bigger vision for what they want
Speaker 1: all these customers to do on their platform. That's not
Speaker 1: just trading, but the catches um. If you're going to
Speaker 1: offer things like insurance and you know, retirement accounts to people,
Speaker 1: you really need their trust. And that's a place where
Speaker 1: they struggled. So and he talked to us about the
Speaker 1: typical robin hood um trader or account user. What's the
Speaker 1: proof out. I think that there is kind of a
Speaker 1: stock image in everyone's mind of typical robin Hood trader.
Speaker 1: I mean of their assets under management do come from
Speaker 1: millennial users, So it's absolutely a millennial product. But gen
Speaker 1: Z is in the mix as well. And I think, um,
Speaker 1: you know, the typical image that you might get in
Speaker 1: your head of a robin Hood user is maybe a
Speaker 1: cop age or UM you know, kind of twenty something
Speaker 1: uh trader a lot of men. But it's that's not
Speaker 1: the only profile. We We spoke to all kinds of
Speaker 1: people who use this up um, including people who don't
Speaker 1: use it just for gay trading, UM who are trying
Speaker 1: to invest a little bit more long term. And so
Speaker 1: it varies that that millennial group is core for them
Speaker 1: and any um. You mentioned some struggles, let's talk about
Speaker 1: sort of the the pieces of the puzzle that Robin
Speaker 1: hood users have encountered, and you know, some of them
Speaker 1: have become frustrated about what are some of those main grapes.
Speaker 1: Absolutely well, one of the more recent issues was around
Speaker 1: two thousand accounts um we're compromised in um, which they
Speaker 1: found in an internal review and that's UM news we
Speaker 1: broke a couple of weeks ago. And the main frustration
Speaker 1: I think around this issue and others that have come
Speaker 1: up with robin Hood um over this year, they don't
Speaker 1: have a customer service phone number, and a frustration what
Speaker 1: it's like you just stopped right there. It's like what, yeah,
Speaker 1: that's right, so, and I mean it's really like it's
Speaker 1: very Silicon Valley actually, like a lot of companies that
Speaker 1: use all the time. A lot of tech companies don't
Speaker 1: have a real customer service number. But this isn't like,
Speaker 1: this isn't like Uber, you know, I didn't get my car.
Speaker 1: It's like, I have a question about my investments exactly,
Speaker 1: And like if you're worried that your account was hacked
Speaker 1: or if there's an outage, like they had a major
Speaker 1: day long outage way at the beginning of you know,
Speaker 1: right before the pandemic lockdowns started on March second, that
Speaker 1: lasted all day. So if you're sitting there with your phone,
Speaker 1: like you know, either the app is totally down or
Speaker 1: I'm seeing you know, funds disappear from that account because
Speaker 1: I'm worried it was hacked, Like there's no one to call,
Speaker 1: and that those treaks people out. So it's this question
Speaker 1: of like can we move into a world where people
Speaker 1: are okay with that? And I'm just wondering what the
Speaker 1: competitors are thinking here. I think in the trade Charles
Speaker 1: Schwab tda meror trade, are they saying we need to
Speaker 1: adapt a little bit because these robin hood folks have
Speaker 1: tapped into something. It's a great question and I think
Speaker 1: they have I mean, one thing, robin Hood was really
Speaker 1: an early mover into free commission trading, and at the
Speaker 1: time I think it was kind of a wacky idea.
Speaker 1: And now that's the industry standard. I mean around this
Speaker 1: time last year, Charles Schwab moved to zero commissions and
Speaker 1: all of the other major brokerages did the same, and
Speaker 1: now you know, zero mission trading is the industry standard.
Speaker 1: So I mean, that's one way they offer fractional shares.
Speaker 1: That's something which is the ability to buy just a
Speaker 1: piece of a stock instead of the thing UM. So
Speaker 1: for example, like buying just a five dollar slice of
Speaker 1: Amazon or another big tech stock UM. And that's something
Speaker 1: that you know, Fidelity and Schwab have now, So robin
Speaker 1: Had has in some ways thence the industry to its image.
Speaker 1: It's true. So any what what are the likelihoods that
Speaker 1: a company like robin Hood might go public? So in
Speaker 1: reporting this story, we did hear that it's possible that
Speaker 1: this wild here that they've had could pull the process
Speaker 1: of an I p O public And without commenting on
Speaker 1: the exact timeline, UM, co founder of lad Kena, did
Speaker 1: say that they themselves as a large independent public company
Speaker 1: in the future and so you know, especially if you're
Speaker 1: so capital markets focused with your customers, you can imagine
Speaker 1: that they might want to harness some of at um
Speaker 1: and and some of the real like lightning in a
Speaker 1: bottle that they've captured this year by by trying to
Speaker 1: work towards an I p O that we don't have
Speaker 1: an exact date yet. Well, we're all watching, and I
Speaker 1: have to say, Paul, and I caught up with one
Speaker 1: of the co founders of Wealth Front, Andy Rackliffe, over
Speaker 1: the last week or so, and he had some thoughts,
Speaker 1: certainly on Robin Hood right, you know, Paul, one of
Speaker 1: the kind of early financial disruptors, right, exactly right, and
Speaker 1: that you know this is uh the question is this
Speaker 1: a trend or when we come out of the pandemic,
Speaker 1: are people going to kind of back away? Right? And
Speaker 1: do you have to be more and offer more services?
Speaker 1: I have to say one internally, uh, one internal message
Speaker 1: I'm getting from one of our Bloomberg colleagues who said, basically,
Speaker 1: you know, the customer service or lack thereof, is one
Speaker 1: reason that they switched back to a major brokerage because
Speaker 1: they just were uncomfortable with it. All right, Annie Massa,
Speaker 1: thank you so much. Bloomberg News Investing reporter uh and
Speaker 1: along with of course Blomberg Business WEE get it or
Speaker 1: Joe Weber. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer
Speaker 1: from Bloomberg Radio. So it is eleven days, nine hours,
Speaker 1: fifty seven minutes and fifty four seconds until the November election.
Speaker 1: I know a lot of people have already voted. I know,
Speaker 1: I have this great clock, and everybody says, twelve days. No,
Speaker 1: that's when election day will be over. We may know
Speaker 1: an outcome, but eleven days until we all start voting. UM. Tonight,
Speaker 1: of course, the final presidential debate. A lot going on
Speaker 1: politically today. Bloomberg contributor Rick Davis is back, former Republican strategist,
Speaker 1: former manager of Senator John McCain's presidential campaign partner at
Speaker 1: Stone Court Capital. He's back with us on the phone
Speaker 1: from Virginia. Ricks, so great to have you here with us.
Speaker 1: I don't even know where to start, So let's start
Speaker 1: with the debate. I cannot wait to watch. What are
Speaker 1: you expecting? Will it be vastly different? I mean, certainly
Speaker 1: the topics are supposed to be different, but you think
Speaker 1: it's going to be very different? This time around. Well,
Speaker 1: you know the difference maybe in the the Make Commission.
Speaker 1: They've said they're going to control microphones at least in
Speaker 1: the initial question and answer period, which is at the
Speaker 1: top of each section. Uh ten minutes sections two minutes each.
Speaker 1: The answer A questioned the commission control the mike so
Speaker 1: that Trump can't talk over Joe Biden and vice versa.
Speaker 1: But then it's opened up. And so I do expect
Speaker 1: it to be combative. The Trump campaign has made it
Speaker 1: totally clear that Donald Trump is going to go after
Speaker 1: Joe Biden on his corrupt family and dealings that his
Speaker 1: son had in China and Ukraine. So I would expect
Speaker 1: sparks to fly. Uh. It'll be interesting to see how
Speaker 1: Joe Biden reacts to that aggressive approach that Donald Trump
Speaker 1: seems to like. And uh, and and and I think
Speaker 1: that this is the last chance to make a real
Speaker 1: material change for the campaigns in the election. Uh. We'll
Speaker 1: then have to worry for the next eleven days what
Speaker 1: kind of events will occur around the world that could
Speaker 1: affect the election. But but tonight's the big night for
Speaker 1: the campaigns to make their point. I just want to
Speaker 1: follow it, you know, I think Americans like fighters, and
Speaker 1: I don't know that. Do you think that it hurt
Speaker 1: Biden when he said, you know, shut up, come on man,
Speaker 1: or whatever, you know, or did people feel like Yeah,
Speaker 1: I felt the same way, and I would have done
Speaker 1: the same thing. So I do wonder what's the balance
Speaker 1: that Biden has to have tonight. Yeah, there's no question
Speaker 1: that it's kind of hard to tell out of that
Speaker 1: first debate whether people reacted to Trump's overbearing and you know,
Speaker 1: interruptions and domination of the dialogue or whether they reacted
Speaker 1: positively to Joe Biden's um, you know, sort of pushing
Speaker 1: him back. But it was a good week for Joe Biden.
Speaker 1: I mean, he clearly advanced in some of those polls
Speaker 1: in the battleground states after that debate. It was also
Speaker 1: the time when Donald Trump came down with coronavirus, so
Speaker 1: that was a bit of a distraction from all those things.
Speaker 1: Um and and yet the campaign has sort of settled
Speaker 1: back to where it was before the last debate polling wise.
Speaker 1: And so I would imagine that the Biden people were
Speaker 1: happy with the outcome of the first debate and would
Speaker 1: love to replicate that. So I'll be honest, I'll be
Speaker 1: switching back and forth between the debate and the Giants
Speaker 1: Eagles game, but I think they're probably not the actor.
Speaker 1: I guess on the night off tonight, right, it might
Speaker 1: be more action with the debate, is there you know
Speaker 1: this president has been reported again that he is not
Speaker 1: necessarily taking the time to prepare for this debate. I
Speaker 1: guess we you know, can rely on his gut up.
Speaker 1: Is there anything that you would advise this president to
Speaker 1: do in tonight's debate? Look, I think that he did
Speaker 1: um turn off voters in his last debate because of
Speaker 1: his tone, overly aggressive in his approach, overbearing uh. And
Speaker 1: so I don't think he has to change too much
Speaker 1: about um what he says. I think he has to
Speaker 1: change the way he says it. Tone and demeanor are
Speaker 1: really important. I mean, this is part of what people
Speaker 1: have to live through for the next four years. And
Speaker 1: there is in the polling data a pretty good amount
Speaker 1: of Trump fatigue that's out there with voters. I mean,
Speaker 1: he's just in your mouth's mouth mouth twenty four hours
Speaker 1: a day, seven days a week. You wake up in
Speaker 1: the morning with forty twitters and you go to sleep,
Speaker 1: you know, with him in a rally screaming his head off.
Speaker 1: So like, if he wants to get reelected, I think
Speaker 1: if he just dialed it back, people will say, Wow,
Speaker 1: that's the Trump we want. So conversely, Rick, I mean
Speaker 1: the the pandemic numbers are starting to go in the
Speaker 1: wrong direction again, how should former Vice President Biden portray that?
Speaker 1: And the U S response or lack thereof from a
Speaker 1: federal response tonight? What's the best course of action as
Speaker 1: it relates to the pandemic for Mr Biden? Well, you know,
Speaker 1: the pandemic played a pretty big role in the first debate,
Speaker 1: and I think this is where the Biden people feel
Speaker 1: they really made up ground. Uh. Not only did they
Speaker 1: attack the administration's lackluster approach to it, but they offered
Speaker 1: a very specific plan for the future, a plan which
Speaker 1: in subsequent interviews, Donald Trump says it is basically something
Speaker 1: he agrees to. Um. He hasn't implemented it, but um,
Speaker 1: but he he doesn't disagree with the Biden plan. And
Speaker 1: so I think that they want this election to turn
Speaker 1: on who is the future administration best able to navigate
Speaker 1: the United States and frankly help the world, uh get
Speaker 1: through the coronavirus In a subsequent economic downturn, and I
Speaker 1: think that will be as much of the debate as
Speaker 1: he can possibly push his plan for for coronavirus. What
Speaker 1: do you make of the president releasing the sixty minutes
Speaker 1: interview or a big chunk of it? I have to
Speaker 1: say I'm a little obsessed. I've been trying to squeeze
Speaker 1: and watching it in between prepping for the show and stuff. Um,
Speaker 1: he's pretty agitated. It feels like from the get go,
Speaker 1: before they even started talking. Um, how does that impact anything?
Speaker 1: Or what's the strategy here? Rick? And would you have
Speaker 1: if you were advising him, would you have said, yep,
Speaker 1: release it. Yeah. I think he's Um. I think he's
Speaker 1: trying to basically uh abate the refs. You know. It's uh,
Speaker 1: you go after the referee before the game starts, because
Speaker 1: you want them to feel good for the home team,
Speaker 1: you know. And and uh and I think, uh this
Speaker 1: is sort of a message to the debate moderator Kristen Welker.
Speaker 1: Tonight he's been all over attacking her as being biased.
Speaker 1: I think he's He's always made a pretty good diet
Speaker 1: of attacking the media. Uh and and looking for I
Speaker 1: would think, um, some kind of um, better deal out
Speaker 1: of them by by pushing back hard on them. And
Speaker 1: and and by the way, I think I's worked relatively
Speaker 1: well in his administration. I think there is a little
Speaker 1: bit of uh presence ability to cow the media by
Speaker 1: being so aggressive at them. And this is just another
Speaker 1: example of how he's done that. Um. He is setting
Speaker 1: up a lot of alternatives on election day, and he
Speaker 1: needs the media to be compliant with some of his
Speaker 1: I think more outrageous options and uh, and I think
Speaker 1: this is all a plan to get that ready for that. Rick.
Speaker 1: If you believe the polls, and I know a lot
Speaker 1: of people necessarily don't leave the polls, President Trump is
Speaker 1: behind Joe Biden. What would you advise him to do
Speaker 1: over the next eleven days to try to rally. He's
Speaker 1: got to do is pick his shots. Uh. There are
Speaker 1: arguably a dozen states that are in play, states that
Speaker 1: are within the margin are and the polling states that
Speaker 1: are critical electoral college states that Donald Trump would need
Speaker 1: to be able to put together a strategy around getting
Speaker 1: two seventy electoral votes. And he's just got to pick
Speaker 1: his shots. He's he's not only behind and polling, he's
Speaker 1: behind in money. Uh. And U arguably forty four million
Speaker 1: people have already voted, so he's he's probably behind in
Speaker 1: votes already. And so he's just got to narrow his
Speaker 1: campaign aperture down to something that he's just got to
Speaker 1: be convinced that if he can win in these four
Speaker 1: or five states Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania, you know, maybe Michigan, Wisconsin, UM,
Speaker 1: then then he's got his whole campaign righting on that.
Speaker 1: Right now, he's still running what I would call a
Speaker 1: national campaign where they're spending a lot of time in
Speaker 1: a lot of states that arguably aren't going to matter.
Speaker 1: Uh if if if if he's not going to pick
Speaker 1: a few states to win. So what does Joe Barden
Speaker 1: need to do to win? Well, I think Joe Biden's
Speaker 1: got tons of options, right, I mean, he's he's he's
Speaker 1: got more money, so he can spread the board a
Speaker 1: little bit. Uh, he can look for opportunities in states
Speaker 1: like Arizona that have voted Republican uh in presidential campaign
Speaker 1: since Bill Clinton won in uh his second in his
Speaker 1: re election and um and and try to force the
Speaker 1: Trump campaign to spread center than they are able to.
Speaker 1: And uh and so uh he has he has the
Speaker 1: advantage of if the election were held today, he'd probably
Speaker 1: win in most of these states. That being said, the
Speaker 1: next eleven days are critical. There's no question that the
Speaker 1: two thousand sixteen race, I was able to swing around
Speaker 1: where Hillary Clinton was ahead of Donald Trump at this
Speaker 1: point in the race, albeit less than Joe Biden's doing
Speaker 1: right now, and uh and and wind up losing. So
Speaker 1: there's still time for this change, this race, to change dynamics.
Speaker 1: And yet I would say tonight Joe Biden does a
Speaker 1: good job in the debate. Tonight he will have crossed
Speaker 1: an important bridge to to winning. Is it still really close? Well,
Speaker 1: when you look at at first of all, it's not
Speaker 1: a national election, So forget all these polls that show
Speaker 1: nationally Joe Biden win by ten points, right, I mean,
Speaker 1: we don't we don't vote nationally. Hillary Clinton won the
Speaker 1: popular vote by three million and lost. Uh So, so
Speaker 1: take that off the boards. When you look at states
Speaker 1: like Florida, dead heat, North Carolina, dead heat, Ohio dead heat,
Speaker 1: Arizona dead heat, I mean, these are really important states
Speaker 1: for electoral votes. Whoever wins Florida, Arizona is going to
Speaker 1: be the next president. And and those states are within
Speaker 1: the margin of error in most public polls, and and
Speaker 1: and and when you talk to the Biden campaign, they
Speaker 1: say they're winning those states. And when you talk to
Speaker 1: the Trump campaign, they say they're winning those states. So
Speaker 1: if if if Trump wanted to consolidate his entire campaign
Speaker 1: in the Florida and Arizona, he'd probably be smart to
Speaker 1: do it. Hey, Rick, let's just assume that Biden wins.
Speaker 1: Republican strategists they go back and they think about what
Speaker 1: are we going to do with our party going forward?
Speaker 1: And my question to you is what happened to the
Speaker 1: Republican Party, the party of Reagan, Bush, Dole, McCain. And
Speaker 1: does the Republican Party want to get back there? Yeah? Well, um,
Speaker 1: that's about leadership. The Republican Party is a very hierarchical party, right.
Speaker 1: We we are all about our leadership, and and when
Speaker 1: you're president, you are indistributable the leader of the Republican Party.
Speaker 1: The Democratic Party is much more of a bottom up party, right,
Speaker 1: and power is much more emanated from the bottom that
Speaker 1: that that goes to the leaders at a local level. Um,
Speaker 1: the Republican Party, we like the top of the ticket.
Speaker 1: And and so I would say one thing that people,
Speaker 1: regardless of what happens in this election, need to Burton,
Speaker 1: and that is that four years from now, it's very likely,
Speaker 1: uh that you could have two women running for president,
Speaker 1: which would be historic, Kamala Harris and Nicki Haley. And
Speaker 1: I like our prospects for the Republican Party if that's
Speaker 1: the contest four years from now, so you can see
Speaker 1: how quickly things can change us to who represents the
Speaker 1: party of Lincoln and Reagan and John McCain. Um. Uh,
Speaker 1: you could change that overnight with the nomination of someone
Speaker 1: like Nicky Haley. Rick. I would just say, though, for
Speaker 1: as a woman, it's taken a long time to finally
Speaker 1: see something, you know, actually female candidates, you know, potentially
Speaker 1: running for president. So it's it feels like, even though
Speaker 1: things can change quickly, feels like it's been a long
Speaker 1: time coming. It may be the best possible option for
Speaker 1: electing a woman is to have both parties nominated. I
Speaker 1: love the idea. I love it. Um Blueberg contributor Rick
Speaker 1: Davis always love talking with you. Thank you so much,
Speaker 1: great insight. Former Republican strategist, former manager of Senator John
Speaker 1: mckeys presidential campaign, partner at stone Court Capital on the
Speaker 1: phone from Virginia. Turn on. Yeah, but you let me drive? No, no,
Speaker 1: no's to drive home, honey, please, I'll do the right vel.
Speaker 1: I want to drive, Just drive, baby, question trying. This
Speaker 1: is the drive to the globe. Give me thanks. We'll
Speaker 1: dry up down on Bluebird Radio. And just got about
Speaker 1: eleven minutes left in today's trading session, pretty much hovering on.
Speaker 1: Here's some of our best levels of the session, Charlie
Speaker 1: of course, breaking down those numbers. It is time for
Speaker 1: the drive to the close. Delighted to have back with
Speaker 1: us one of our favorite voices when it comes to
Speaker 1: markets and when it comes to talking Tesla. We're doing
Speaker 1: a lot with him. Ross Gerbert is back, president CEO
Speaker 1: of Gerbert Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management. He is with
Speaker 1: us on the phone from Santa Monica, California. So Ross,
Speaker 1: good to have you here with Paul and myself. How
Speaker 1: are you. I'm good. How are you doing well? Doing well?
Speaker 1: You know, just watching the markets, watching waiting for the
Speaker 1: election outcoming, watching Tesla just continue to go higher and
Speaker 1: higher and higher. Yeah, it's great, isn't it. We should
Speaker 1: be full disclosure. Ross owned shares of Tesla. He has
Speaker 1: a Model three, he knows this and a Model Why
Speaker 1: that's my wife's it's my wife. So what do you
Speaker 1: make of the quarter last night? Ross? You know, it's great.
Speaker 1: I'm really stoked, like they finally have you know, gotten
Speaker 1: out of that stage of like being kind of shiekily
Speaker 1: profitable and sort of like you know, sort of like
Speaker 1: barely getting there to just blowing it out. And and
Speaker 1: now with fourteen billion in cash on the books, they
Speaker 1: they're just fully you know, they have full aquidity to
Speaker 1: achieve their dreams of building all these giga factories all
Speaker 1: over the world and and increasing production by several orders
Speaker 1: of matic magnitude. So I'm very, very excited because boy,
Speaker 1: the last couple of years have been tough for Tesla
Speaker 1: to get to this stage, and now we're getting to
Speaker 1: the fun part. So it makes me wonder we're we're
Speaker 1: all the other automakers they're wanting Tesla, and I feel
Speaker 1: like they're just letting Tesla really kind of own this market. Yeah,
Speaker 1: they are. And I would say the same thing about
Speaker 1: you know, the mall owners or whatever. It's like the
Speaker 1: auto industry in the United States is about to get
Speaker 1: devastated because they simply have failed to understand that the
Speaker 1: technological shifts that are happening that are going to affect
Speaker 1: them is something they need to go all in on
Speaker 1: versus these sort of tiptoeing into the market with products
Speaker 1: that just ultimately sell more ice vehicles for them that
Speaker 1: higher margins. So they're giving up the future to make
Speaker 1: something today and and that's going to be a huge
Speaker 1: mistake longer term for for the big automakers. What do
Speaker 1: you make of General Motors coming out with an eight
Speaker 1: dollar electric pickup truck that seems like a compelling product.
Speaker 1: Maybe not the price tag, but the product. I mean,
Speaker 1: it's not compelling at all. I don't know anybody in
Speaker 1: the pickup side of the world that wants to spend
Speaker 1: a hundred grand on a truck. I think that's exactly
Speaker 1: the point I'm trying to make is, first of all,
Speaker 1: they haven't come out with anything. They showed us a
Speaker 1: video of a truck. Now, the last video of a
Speaker 1: truck I saw was from Nicola and they pushed the
Speaker 1: truck down the hill. So you know, when when GM
Speaker 1: actually shows me a real truck, then we'll talk. But
Speaker 1: I've been in more EV factories and I care to
Speaker 1: talk about and this is a really hard thing to build.
Speaker 1: So just saying we're gonna build these trucks, that doesn't
Speaker 1: mean anything. You prove to me you're gonna build a truck,
Speaker 1: and I'll see the truck, then we'll talk. But the
Speaker 1: second thing is how are they going to sell a
Speaker 1: truck for a hundred twenty thousand when I can buy
Speaker 1: an amazing GM truck for fifty thousand or sixty thousand.
Speaker 1: So it's like, who's going to do that? You know?
Speaker 1: So I until these companies go all in. And I've
Speaker 1: said this many times, you have companies like Ribbean and
Speaker 1: lou Said, which are pure EV companies with good financial
Speaker 1: backing that are are all in EV companies, and these
Speaker 1: are the companies that are going to be successful longer term.
Speaker 1: But Detroit they seem to just you know, put their
Speaker 1: head in the sand, keep selling, keep doing what they're doing,
Speaker 1: and hope that Tesla goes away. Uh, it's not gonna happen. Ross.
Speaker 1: That's what I wanted to ask you. Like you said,
Speaker 1: you're in and out of EV plants, you're checking out.
Speaker 1: You know this industry, you know to understand it much
Speaker 1: more broadly, I mean, who are the other folks beyond Tesla.
Speaker 1: We know you like Tesla, you know that you're keeping
Speaker 1: a close watch on Okay, So here's what I've learned
Speaker 1: recently at Tesla. I was at Autonomy Day. I'm one
Speaker 1: of the few, probably one of thirty people that have
Speaker 1: walked through this new cell factory where they are making
Speaker 1: new batteries with new technology that's nothing like the old.
Speaker 1: And one of the things that came to my attention,
Speaker 1: and this was the fact that even if Tesla is
Speaker 1: successful with everything they do, it's barely a dent in
Speaker 1: the fight for climate. There's so much demand for EVIS,
Speaker 1: and there's so much opportunity in EVIS, yet you know,
Speaker 1: only a few people are playing it. So the way
Speaker 1: we see it is there's huge opportunity in cell manufacturers,
Speaker 1: in the entire supply chain of the e V ecosystem,
Speaker 1: and that's where we're now investing. A lot of money
Speaker 1: is into the e V supply chains, um battery suppliers,
Speaker 1: sell producers. This is the future. And it's like going
Speaker 1: back to one and Intel created a computer ship and
Speaker 1: Tell wasn't the only computer chip maker that was successful,
Speaker 1: but they were the leader. So what we're looking for,
Speaker 1: what are the other companies that are going to be
Speaker 1: successful in in helping supply other companies with e V
Speaker 1: technology as well as building that you know, vertical integration
Speaker 1: to supply an industry that's hopefully we'll be selling you know,
Speaker 1: fifty million cars one day in a decade or so.
Speaker 1: You know, there's a huge opportunity. I'm on the edge
Speaker 1: of my ce. Do feel like a tip in your
Speaker 1: hat as to a couple of names that you're looking
Speaker 1: at or maybe investing in. UM, Well, we are investing
Speaker 1: in the way I'm doing it is through an e
Speaker 1: t F right now because it's very hard to buy
Speaker 1: Korean stocks. It turns out that US investors can't easily
Speaker 1: buy Korea Korean stocks, even institutions like myself. So we
Speaker 1: are buying an e t F in the symbols L
Speaker 1: I T And this is a global X security that
Speaker 1: focuses on battery technology. And the top ten holdings of
Speaker 1: this are exactly what you want to own. It's like
Speaker 1: every battery maker and supplier in Japan, Korea and China,
Speaker 1: and and that's where this technology is going to be
Speaker 1: developed and where it's going to be deployed and where
Speaker 1: there's a huge opportunity. And so that's that's the I
Speaker 1: think the simplest way to play it, in a way
Speaker 1: where you can get exposure to many of the different players,
Speaker 1: and that's what we've been doing. Hey, Ross, Uh, does
Speaker 1: the electric vehicle industry from your perspective have a view
Speaker 1: on you know, Trump versus Biden. We're gonna have an
Speaker 1: election here? Well, yes, because obviously a guy who's pushing
Speaker 1: Cole and doesn't get it isn't as good as a
Speaker 1: guy who totally gets it, who wants to see the
Speaker 1: world not explode into a fireball. So you know, Biden
Speaker 1: is going to spend a ton of money on green
Speaker 1: energy anyway you look at it, and we're seeing it
Speaker 1: in our solar positions. You know, we're very involved with
Speaker 1: green energy as a whole. And that's mostly because I
Speaker 1: see as as having no choice. So even if Trump wins,
Speaker 1: we still have no choice. I mean, the fires and
Speaker 1: the hurricanes aren't going away, but I think Biden. So
Speaker 1: we're actually betting on a Biden victory right now. Um,
Speaker 1: And and we expect our clean energy positions to go
Speaker 1: they have already gone up a ton in anticipation of this,
Speaker 1: and and I expect this trend to continue, though once again,
Speaker 1: these are long term trends. Don't invest around elections or
Speaker 1: presidents because I'm thinking five ten years, it's going to
Speaker 1: be another president after Biden too. You know. Always so
Speaker 1: good to check in with you. Stay safe, Fross Garber,
Speaker 1: Thank you so much. Ross Garber, Presidency of Greber Kawasaki
Speaker 1: Wealth and Investment Management on the phone. Thanks so much
Speaker 1: for listening to Former business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud,
Speaker 1: or at the Inberg dot com, and be sure to
Speaker 1: check out our daily radio show at two pm Eastern
Speaker 1: on Bloomberg Radio, and be sure to watch us to
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