WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2024 Week 4 NFL MegaPod Betting Preview 0:00:03.520 --> 0:00:04.520 Check it in Man. 0:00:06.600 --> 0:00:09.479 Thursday morning, September twenty sixth, twenty twenty fours. The Beating 0:00:09.480 --> 0:00:14.080 the Book Podcast, week number four in the NFL. It's 0:00:14.080 --> 0:00:19.439 skill Alexander. Yeah, not a good first three weeks for me. 0:00:20.079 --> 0:00:22.880 Not a good first threeks, first three weeks for Willie 0:00:23.320 --> 0:00:25.440 will Hill, one of the staples of this show. Of course, 0:00:25.480 --> 0:00:27.080 you can follow him on Twitter at not the will 0:00:27.120 --> 0:00:30.200 Hill should have been more podcasts. But Todd Wishna is 0:00:30.240 --> 0:00:31.720 doing pretty good, even though you had a one and 0:00:31.720 --> 0:00:34.720 two last week as well. Todd Wishnav from the Showtime 0:00:34.760 --> 0:00:41.519 docu series Action at t wish Now, Toddy, you are 0:00:41.600 --> 0:00:45.440 just oring waring everybody. Todd is not eaten and he 0:00:45.479 --> 0:00:49.120 went to Starbucks, so you could be Michugan on this show, right, 0:00:49.240 --> 0:00:50.440 is what you're saying in advance. 0:00:50.560 --> 0:00:53.520 Basically, most people will be thinking, I just railed three 0:00:53.600 --> 0:00:56.680 lines of cocaine because caffeine has a certain effect on me, 0:00:57.200 --> 0:00:59.600 and you're gonna think that I'm on coke. I'm not. 0:00:59.720 --> 0:01:01.560 It's because I've had no calories and I've had a 0:01:01.600 --> 0:01:05.000 lot of caffeine. But you've all been warned, so whatever. 0:01:05.160 --> 0:01:08.560 Okay, there we are. There's our warning on the show today. 0:01:08.959 --> 0:01:11.120 One of our favorite guests. He's kind enough to come 0:01:11.120 --> 0:01:13.440 on the Megapod. Well, he's on a numbers game every week, 0:01:13.680 --> 0:01:15.760 that's the first thing for not one but two segments. 0:01:15.840 --> 0:01:17.720 But he's kind enough to come on the Megapod twice 0:01:17.720 --> 0:01:20.120 a year, once during the regular season. Once we usually 0:01:20.200 --> 0:01:22.480 have him when he can accommodate during the playoffs, and 0:01:22.480 --> 0:01:25.800 obviously we do tennis podcasts together as well. He's the 0:01:25.840 --> 0:01:28.440 co host of not one but two podcasts, NBC Sports 0:01:28.480 --> 0:01:31.800 at the Edge with Jay Croucher and also of course 0:01:31.880 --> 0:01:36.000 Densic Classic The Deep Dive with Andy Molitor. It's Drew Dinsig, 0:01:36.000 --> 0:01:38.520 Everybody at Whale, Underscore, capp Or What's Happening, and Drew 0:01:38.560 --> 0:01:40.240 Ski as always. 0:01:40.240 --> 0:01:42.640 It's an honor to be invited and participate in the Megapod. 0:01:42.680 --> 0:01:45.560 And you guys are looking great. Hopefully I can help 0:01:46.240 --> 0:01:50.680 turn the season around. I'll the Bengals this week, probably 0:01:50.720 --> 0:01:54.160 turning their season round, hopefully. So it is funny though, 0:01:54.200 --> 0:01:57.440 watching with the video quality we're getting from Todd right now, 0:01:58.120 --> 0:02:00.680 his eyes do look like perfectly like one hundred per 0:02:00.960 --> 0:02:04.560 dilated like pupils, just going like all wow, So yeah, 0:02:04.720 --> 0:02:06.520 I was wondering what was going on there, but I 0:02:06.520 --> 0:02:08.240 guess it's the cafine. 0:02:08.840 --> 0:02:11.079 Drew is very kind also because Drew just came back 0:02:11.120 --> 0:02:14.480 from a Greek vacation where he looks beautiful, and I 0:02:14.639 --> 0:02:16.440 was just saying before he got here, I said, I've 0:02:16.480 --> 0:02:19.640 never looked worse. Look at me. I'm exhausted. What's happening 0:02:19.680 --> 0:02:21.360 to me? I'm dying? 0:02:23.160 --> 0:02:25.440 Is a grid man? Three weeks in it, you're already 0:02:25.440 --> 0:02:25.880 feeling it. 0:02:26.680 --> 0:02:29.040 Oh that's awful, all right? So we we usually do 0:02:29.120 --> 0:02:32.840 this a little earlier on Thursday, but Drew couldn't get 0:02:32.880 --> 0:02:34.600 off a call. Drew has another life that he does, 0:02:34.680 --> 0:02:36.280 and I just before I know the people are like, oh, 0:02:36.240 --> 0:02:37.920 I just give the picks. I just want to have 0:02:37.960 --> 0:02:40.359 this one conversation with Drew because I think it's fascinating. 0:02:41.080 --> 0:02:43.280 Drew is, I hope you don't mind me saying it 0:02:43.360 --> 0:02:45.000 like this. You'll correct me if I'm saying it wrong. 0:02:45.280 --> 0:02:50.079 Drew is a seismologist, and we were sort of texting 0:02:50.120 --> 0:02:51.720 back and forth. He couldn't get out of a meeting, 0:02:51.800 --> 0:02:53.359 so we had to do this a little later. Today. 0:02:55.040 --> 0:02:59.960 You have seen something that, even though it's not football prognostic, 0:03:00.440 --> 0:03:02.800 I find fascinating. I wish we could bet on this. 0:03:02.840 --> 0:03:06.079 Can you explain what you are seeing these days? Sir? 0:03:06.200 --> 0:03:09.000 Yeah, yeah, yeah, earthquakes hot hot in the streets in 0:03:09.080 --> 0:03:12.840 LA right now. You mentioned I was traveling international recently. 0:03:12.880 --> 0:03:16.120 I was at Lax Thursday morning, the week before last, 0:03:16.400 --> 0:03:19.840 and I'm a consulting engineer, so basically my job is 0:03:19.880 --> 0:03:22.560 to you know, kind of help the help the structural 0:03:22.600 --> 0:03:25.680 engineers design the buildings so that there's you know, safe 0:03:25.680 --> 0:03:28.840 performance during the earthquake. And we were at LAX and 0:03:29.680 --> 0:03:33.000 ground starts shaking, and I'm like, oh, wow, this is cool. 0:03:33.160 --> 0:03:35.720 Like I get to see like how the structure performs, 0:03:35.760 --> 0:03:37.880 like sitting there in the terminal, like, oh this is great. 0:03:38.160 --> 0:03:41.040 And then every single cell phone in the entire terminal 0:03:41.240 --> 0:03:44.600 gets the warning at the same time, like you know, 0:03:44.680 --> 0:03:48.240 like ground shaking, earthquake is happening. See cover. And I'm like, Okay, 0:03:48.280 --> 0:03:50.760 maybe this isn't as cool as I thought, because number one, 0:03:50.840 --> 0:03:52.520 I don't love being in the public space for this, 0:03:52.600 --> 0:03:54.440 and number two, I hope this doesn't ruin Our trip. 0:03:55.000 --> 0:03:56.760 Ended up only being in a magnet, you know, just 0:03:56.840 --> 0:03:59.480 under a magnitude five happened in Malibu, but it was 0:03:59.680 --> 0:04:03.120 it was notable, and you kind of look at a pattern. Recently, 0:04:03.160 --> 0:04:06.520 we've had three of these now this summer, and they've 0:04:06.560 --> 0:04:10.360 all been relatively close to populated areas on different faults. 0:04:10.360 --> 0:04:14.000 And yeah, we're coming up around sort of the time 0:04:14.080 --> 0:04:17.760 when you would expect another earthquake in the La Basin. 0:04:18.040 --> 0:04:19.880 They happen about every thirty years, and the last one 0:04:19.920 --> 0:04:22.480 do occur was nineteen ninety four and earthwridche at least 0:04:22.520 --> 0:04:26.680 in terms of real, big, consequential earthquakes. So yeah, everybody 0:04:26.760 --> 0:04:30.160 is very key on earthquake safety right now. And I think, 0:04:30.800 --> 0:04:33.240 you know, it's good when you have the small ones 0:04:33.240 --> 0:04:35.880 because it gives everybody the opportunity to think, like, Okay, 0:04:35.880 --> 0:04:38.920 what's my plan? You know, what do I have enough water? 0:04:39.040 --> 0:04:42.080 Like how am I gonna get my kids from school? 0:04:42.160 --> 0:04:44.240 Or whatever? You know, Like, yeah, it's good to just 0:04:44.279 --> 0:04:46.599 sort of have everybody go through the mental exercise of 0:04:46.640 --> 0:04:49.039 being prepared for this sort of thing because you never know. 0:04:50.160 --> 0:04:51.640 So you are and I just want I don't want 0:04:51.640 --> 0:04:53.320 to hold you to a prediction here, but you are 0:04:53.360 --> 0:04:55.880 basically saying so for those of us who lived at 0:04:55.880 --> 0:04:58.640 any amount of time in California, and also for those 0:04:58.920 --> 0:05:02.400 who haven't aware of this, I think nineteen eighty nine 0:05:02.480 --> 0:05:06.200 San Francisco. Obviously the Bay Bridge collapsing during the World 0:05:06.240 --> 0:05:09.240 Series between the A's and the Giants. That got all 0:05:09.320 --> 0:05:12.599 the headlines, and rightfully so. By the way, the marina 0:05:12.760 --> 0:05:16.159 was on fire, people lost their lives on the Bay Bridge. 0:05:16.200 --> 0:05:18.599 It was chaos during the game al Michael's with the 0:05:18.600 --> 0:05:21.320 famous audio. But for those who were both in the 0:05:21.360 --> 0:05:25.440 eighty nine that's called the Loma Prieta earthquake, as you know, 0:05:25.560 --> 0:05:28.000 Drew and then ninety three the Northridge I guess these 0:05:28.000 --> 0:05:29.800 are named after the fault line, is that what they're 0:05:29.839 --> 0:05:31.280 named after, or just for the epicenter. 0:05:31.760 --> 0:05:34.599 They tend to name them after the community that's the 0:05:34.600 --> 0:05:38.920 most directly impacted, and that's usually either the most populated 0:05:38.960 --> 0:05:44.039 community right over the fault or yeah, or near the epicenter. Yeah, 0:05:44.080 --> 0:05:46.320 so Northridge it was. It ended up being the north 0:05:46.400 --> 0:05:48.080 Ridge fault. They didn't know a fault was there until 0:05:48.080 --> 0:05:50.680 it happened, and they named it the north Ridge fault. 0:05:50.880 --> 0:05:52.960 So yeah, that's kind of how it goes. 0:05:53.040 --> 0:05:56.920 So people who I know were in both, and again 0:05:56.960 --> 0:05:59.840 this depends on where you were, obviously, but anecdotally they 0:05:59.839 --> 0:06:02.560 were like, oh, the north Ridge one was way worse, 0:06:02.839 --> 0:06:05.560 Like they were like this is it was. Stuff was 0:06:05.600 --> 0:06:08.760 coming off the walls, you know, in their apartments, and 0:06:08.800 --> 0:06:11.880 it was just it's terrifying. Now you sort of said 0:06:11.920 --> 0:06:14.880 it casually, but again, if you've lived in California anything 0:06:14.960 --> 0:06:18.240 in the fours and you know, low fives on the 0:06:18.320 --> 0:06:21.280 Richter scale, we kind of don't blink anymore if you've 0:06:21.320 --> 0:06:23.640 been through enough of them. But once you start like 0:06:24.160 --> 0:06:27.000 six what you were just talking about, I think if 0:06:27.000 --> 0:06:30.200 that is to happen thirty years from Northridge, like, that's 0:06:30.200 --> 0:06:33.040 some serious shit, and that's I don't want to say 0:06:33.040 --> 0:06:36.039 you're predicting it, but the technic with. 0:06:36.120 --> 0:06:39.040 Your story that comes, Yeah, Philly, I have a bedding 0:06:39.080 --> 0:06:41.640 story that comes with one of my earth quakes. I 0:06:41.680 --> 0:06:45.080 was living in LA two thousand and one to twenty fifteen, 0:06:45.120 --> 0:06:48.400 and I remember on a college football Saturday, I'm at 0:06:48.440 --> 0:06:50.680 the same place I was for the old Kipper massacre story. 0:06:50.720 --> 0:06:53.960 I'm watching the game and the place was shaking. I 0:06:53.960 --> 0:06:56.480 think it was only like a four point seven or something, 0:06:56.600 --> 0:06:59.440 but it was shaking serious and it wasn't the first 0:06:59.440 --> 0:07:02.160 earthquake been in LA. But I was like, can this 0:07:02.279 --> 0:07:04.400 stop shaking. There's two minutes left in this game. What 0:07:04.440 --> 0:07:06.320 a is going on here? I'm going, you can't have 0:07:06.400 --> 0:07:07.360 an earthquake now. 0:07:07.240 --> 0:07:10.560 I'm about this, Bet Todd, you had you have two 0:07:10.560 --> 0:07:12.960 earthquake stories. You remember the second one? 0:07:13.440 --> 0:07:16.160 Oh, the other earthquake. Of course that was a special. 0:07:16.400 --> 0:07:19.960 And in Las Vegas we went to the game Mystics 0:07:20.080 --> 0:07:22.680 Vegas Aces a couple of years ago. We had the 0:07:22.800 --> 0:07:26.760 Mystics pick them at halftime. They're up like fifteen points, 0:07:27.000 --> 0:07:29.880 and there was an earthquake in the desert in California 0:07:30.120 --> 0:07:33.760 that affected La that affected the Vegas a tiny bit. 0:07:34.000 --> 0:07:36.040 It wasn't even that bad. We're in the MGM Grand 0:07:36.040 --> 0:07:38.280 Arena and I'm like, they're not gonna end this game? 0:07:38.320 --> 0:07:42.440 Are they been screwing Summer League Mystics and and they're 0:07:42.480 --> 0:07:45.480 all these little girls are like, oh, like they're worried 0:07:45.520 --> 0:07:49.360 the scoreboard is gonna fall. I'm like, get another ten girls. 0:07:48.600 --> 0:07:52.840 The bench, Tod, I go, you know the scoreboard could 0:07:52.840 --> 0:07:54.560 fall on these girls. 0:07:56.080 --> 0:07:58.200 Get another ten girls. We got tons of girls on 0:07:58.280 --> 0:08:02.160 the bench. It's Mystics and I'm up fifteen and a half. 0:08:02.160 --> 0:08:04.760 It was ridiculous. And I'm watching They've got guys in 0:08:04.840 --> 0:08:07.360 suits coming out there looking at the floor they're doing. 0:08:07.400 --> 0:08:08.760 This is going on for like a half an hour. 0:08:08.760 --> 0:08:10.800 I'm like, oh my god, this is unbelievable if I 0:08:10.840 --> 0:08:13.720 lose this bet. So finally they decide after they could 0:08:13.720 --> 0:08:15.520 have played the whole second half in the amount of 0:08:15.520 --> 0:08:17.800 time that they did to inspect, and then they call 0:08:17.920 --> 0:08:21.840 the game, and I am literally absolutely because I have 0:08:21.920 --> 0:08:24.400 an easy winner and I and I get And on 0:08:24.440 --> 0:08:27.120 top of that, I didn't even get refunded for my tickets. 0:08:27.200 --> 0:08:31.280 The Aces didn't refunded. I was so mad. I was like, 0:08:31.480 --> 0:08:33.920 only this could happen to me in earthquake two hundred 0:08:33.960 --> 0:08:34.560 miles away. 0:08:35.040 --> 0:08:38.720 To put them on this, uh yeah, this is this 0:08:38.800 --> 0:08:40.480 is just to go to go to say you know 0:08:40.559 --> 0:08:43.600 that all of your points are Fairgillroich was ten times 0:08:43.600 --> 0:08:46.840 worse than than Loma Creator for lots of reasons, and 0:08:47.200 --> 0:08:51.720 Southern California much like the Megapod, we are due, we are. 0:08:51.720 --> 0:08:56.960 Too much like the Megapod. Nicely done, good segue. And 0:08:57.000 --> 0:08:59.440 by the way, this drews Drew sort of letting me 0:08:59.520 --> 0:09:02.880 know this. Major League Baseball completely has botched their last 0:09:02.920 --> 0:09:05.920 week of the season with the final two wild card 0:09:05.960 --> 0:09:09.200 spots in the National League with Hurricane Helene, which the 0:09:09.240 --> 0:09:13.520 difference between earthquakes and hurricanes is we know the hurricanes 0:09:13.520 --> 0:09:15.960 are coming, but Major League Baseball apparently did not get 0:09:15.960 --> 0:09:20.360 the memo. So let's let's turn it around. We are due. 0:09:20.400 --> 0:09:24.959 As Drew said Todd, the records are what, Well, the. 0:09:24.960 --> 0:09:28.080 Records seem to be very similar to last week, with 0:09:28.160 --> 0:09:33.280 a gigantic lead by one big tea. That's me. Gilly 0:09:33.360 --> 0:09:35.480 came into the week at one, four and one. We 0:09:35.559 --> 0:09:38.880 all called for the aggression after his amazing season. We 0:09:38.920 --> 0:09:41.520 all knew it wasn't for real. We all knew there 0:09:41.559 --> 0:09:44.520 was no way Gil could keep up this towards streak 0:09:44.520 --> 0:09:48.160 that he had last year. And guess what vote reality 0:09:48.200 --> 0:09:50.600 has set in. He is now two six and one 0:09:51.000 --> 0:09:54.320 and a whopping zero to three on his teasers. And 0:09:54.360 --> 0:09:57.320 that is surprising because we've all been outstanding on teasers 0:09:57.600 --> 0:10:01.440 as of the last couple of years. Willie, say, Willie 0:10:01.480 --> 0:10:03.360 gets a one and two to go to four and 0:10:03.400 --> 0:10:06.560 five oh and three also on his teasers, so this 0:10:06.640 --> 0:10:09.719 is shocking. Wow. And then I am at six and 0:10:09.760 --> 0:10:11.880 three after my one and two week, and I am 0:10:11.920 --> 0:10:14.920 one and two on teasers also not very good, and 0:10:14.960 --> 0:10:17.880 then the guest. The guest had a good week. Adam 0:10:17.960 --> 0:10:21.120 Chernoff held up his side of the bargain, going two 0:10:21.200 --> 0:10:24.679 and one with some nice picks, including the Commanders plus 0:10:24.720 --> 0:10:27.439 seven and a half. That's Gilly's former team used to 0:10:27.480 --> 0:10:29.800 be called the Redskins. For those of you that didn't know, 0:10:30.200 --> 0:10:33.960 the guest is now four four and one and two 0:10:34.000 --> 0:10:36.160 and one on the teasers. So we've got to turn 0:10:36.160 --> 0:10:38.960 it around. Everybody else needs to turn it around except 0:10:38.960 --> 0:10:41.080 for me. Thank you. 0:10:41.080 --> 0:10:42.640 You need to turn it around so we can catch 0:10:42.640 --> 0:10:47.040 you Dumbo of the Week. We have two candidates for 0:10:47.160 --> 0:10:48.040 Dumbo of the Week. 0:10:48.760 --> 0:10:51.480 Yes, I want to you do your first one and 0:10:51.720 --> 0:10:53.480 key save Raheem Moores for me. 0:10:54.160 --> 0:10:56.720 I'm just gonna set it up. It is a it 0:10:56.800 --> 0:11:00.160 is a Nick Sirianni versus Raheem Morris duel to the 0:11:00.280 --> 0:11:04.160 end for Dumbo of the Week. I'll do Okay, you 0:11:04.200 --> 0:11:05.640 want you want to do the Royeye Morris, I'll do 0:11:05.640 --> 0:11:09.520 the Nick Sirianni. The Nick Sirianni was simply a body 0:11:09.520 --> 0:11:12.360 of work in what ended up being philadelphia Is fifteen 0:11:12.360 --> 0:11:15.720 to twelve win over the Saints, but probably could have 0:11:15.800 --> 0:11:19.080 been way bigger. Than that. By the way, Philadelphia outgained 0:11:19.679 --> 0:11:22.600 the fouc They excuse me, the Saints in that game 0:11:23.440 --> 0:11:25.720 four hundred and sixty to two hundred and nineteen in 0:11:25.760 --> 0:11:28.520 total yards. But there was any number of situations in 0:11:28.559 --> 0:11:31.920 that game where first of all, you know, Hurts got 0:11:31.960 --> 0:11:34.559 picked by Tehran Matthew earlier in that game. But just 0:11:34.600 --> 0:11:37.600 in terms of coaching decisions, fourth and one for Philly 0:11:38.720 --> 0:11:42.120 down three to excuse me, this is this is a 0:11:42.800 --> 0:11:44.800 scoreless game, fourth and one for Philly at the New 0:11:44.880 --> 0:11:47.960 Orleans forty six. They opt not to do the Tukus bush, 0:11:48.000 --> 0:11:50.839 which they invented and perfected. Hurts to Goddard for six. 0:11:50.880 --> 0:11:55.360 They converted it and then two plays later Hurts ended 0:11:55.440 --> 0:11:57.880 up fumbling, But that was the first sort of indication like, wow, 0:11:57.920 --> 0:11:59.720 that was an interesting call. They didn't took his bush. 0:12:00.040 --> 0:12:02.280 So then it's fourth and one at the New Orleans fifteen. 0:12:02.320 --> 0:12:04.200 This is a three to nothing game. Fourth and one 0:12:04.280 --> 0:12:07.360 at the fifteen. This is late first half. You're down three, 0:12:07.480 --> 0:12:10.560 three to nothing. They showed took this push, but instead 0:12:10.600 --> 0:12:13.200 they hand off to Saquon little east west thing the 0:12:13.240 --> 0:12:15.600 poortent of things to come in the Raheem Morris discussion, 0:12:15.840 --> 0:12:19.319 tackled for no game. So again they eschew the field 0:12:19.360 --> 0:12:20.760 goal there, and you're like, what are you doing, Nick 0:12:20.760 --> 0:12:22.360 Sirianni like probably at some point. 0:12:22.320 --> 0:12:25.320 Nothing like showing push. I like, I like what you said. 0:12:25.320 --> 0:12:28.520 They showed tulas push. Great call by Yanky. 0:12:28.600 --> 0:12:31.000 I love it, Thank you, thank you. Third quarter, fourth 0:12:31.000 --> 0:12:33.080 and three from the New Orleans thirty four, also three 0:12:33.120 --> 0:12:36.679 to nothing, hurts, they go for it, hurts, sacked by 0:12:36.720 --> 0:12:41.040 Brian Borsey, so that fourth didn't work out. Then fourth 0:12:41.080 --> 0:12:43.719 quarter New Orleans. New Orleans finally tries a fourth and 0:12:43.760 --> 0:12:46.640 one and they miss it. By the way, Philadelphia, they 0:12:46.640 --> 0:12:49.040 made them pay for it. Four plays later, Saquon Scamperdon 0:12:49.080 --> 0:12:51.440 from sixty five out and it was seven to three Philly. 0:12:51.520 --> 0:12:53.719 So then New Orleans does take a field goal to 0:12:53.760 --> 0:12:57.840 cut it to seven to six. Then Philadelphia decides, after 0:12:57.880 --> 0:13:00.360 all these fourths where they went for it, they're like, hey, 0:13:00.520 --> 0:13:02.400 Jake Elliott, why don't you go out there and kick 0:13:02.440 --> 0:13:05.280 a sixty yarder? See if we can't extends. Of course, 0:13:05.280 --> 0:13:07.839 he misses it. New Orleans takes over at midfield and 0:13:07.840 --> 0:13:09.760 they end up New Orleans does taking the lead twelve 0:13:09.760 --> 0:13:13.000 to seven. Philadelphia ends up. They should have won this game. 0:13:13.040 --> 0:13:14.880 In the end, they get lucky because on a third 0:13:14.880 --> 0:13:18.360 and sixteen with one sixteen to go, Hurtz to Goddard 0:13:18.400 --> 0:13:21.440 for sixty one completely bailed him out. Saque scored after that, 0:13:21.520 --> 0:13:24.520 and Philly held on to win the game, but again 0:13:24.559 --> 0:13:28.400 a series at least three questionable fourth down decisions, both 0:13:28.440 --> 0:13:30.760 to go for it and then to kick a sixty 0:13:30.840 --> 0:13:34.080 yarder from Nick Siriani. He is candidate number one. Raheem 0:13:34.120 --> 0:13:35.280 Morris candidate number two. 0:13:35.320 --> 0:13:39.760 Go ahead, Dodd, Okay, I'm putting this in with one 0:13:39.760 --> 0:13:44.040 of my really good end gamers because it's all related. 0:13:45.040 --> 0:13:47.200 I think one of my best in game plays of 0:13:47.240 --> 0:13:52.520 the week was Minnesota is trailing twenty two seventeen in 0:13:52.600 --> 0:13:55.560 the Sunday night matchup against the Chiefs. They're down five, 0:13:56.200 --> 0:13:59.360 they have some linemen injured already. They're having some struggle 0:13:59.400 --> 0:14:04.280 struggle movie the ball, but they now have the ball. Atlanta. 0:14:04.320 --> 0:14:07.400 I'm sorry, Atlanta. I always call Minnesota's Kirk Cousins, but 0:14:07.480 --> 0:14:10.679 it's first inten at the Atlanta eleven, and I'm looking 0:14:10.720 --> 0:14:13.079 at the Kansas City team total at twenty five and 0:14:13.120 --> 0:14:14.880 a half or twenty six and a half it's essentially 0:14:14.880 --> 0:14:17.000 the same number because they have twenty two points. Three 0:14:17.000 --> 0:14:18.120 and a half or four and a half at this 0:14:18.160 --> 0:14:21.680 point doesn't really make a difference. As soon as Atlanta 0:14:21.720 --> 0:14:23.760 gets the first down to go to first inten at 0:14:23.760 --> 0:14:26.200 the Atlanta twenty eight with about ten minutes to go, 0:14:26.560 --> 0:14:29.360 I'm saying to myself, I've got to play Kansas City 0:14:29.440 --> 0:14:33.280 under here. Why because even if Atlanta goes three and out, 0:14:33.360 --> 0:14:35.720 they'll probably be about at eight or nine minutes left, 0:14:35.920 --> 0:14:37.760 and there's a good chance if the Chiefs will just 0:14:37.760 --> 0:14:39.640 try to run out the clock and at worst case 0:14:39.680 --> 0:14:42.880 scenario get in Minnesota field area and kick a field 0:14:42.880 --> 0:14:45.360 goal to have twenty five points. That's what I'm thinking, 0:14:45.400 --> 0:14:47.760 worst case scenario is. So I say, I've got to 0:14:47.760 --> 0:14:49.680 play the under twenty six and a half under twenty 0:14:49.720 --> 0:14:51.440 five and a half. They were both about minus one 0:14:51.480 --> 0:14:53.840 twenty five at the time, so I immediately play it. 0:14:54.040 --> 0:14:56.480 And now we get all the way down because the 0:14:56.600 --> 0:14:59.960 Atlanta Falcons had a fifteen play drive, they get all 0:15:00.040 --> 0:15:02.360 all the way down with four minutes and twelve seconds 0:15:02.400 --> 0:15:05.080 to go. It's fourth and five at the Kansas City eight, 0:15:05.280 --> 0:15:07.320 and I text the guys and I say, okay, he's 0:15:07.360 --> 0:15:08.960 going to kick a field goal here right to go 0:15:09.000 --> 0:15:11.560 to twenty to twenty, because then if he gets the 0:15:11.560 --> 0:15:13.120 ball back, he's got his time out. If he gets 0:15:13.120 --> 0:15:14.480 the ball back, he just has to get a field 0:15:14.480 --> 0:15:17.680 goal twenty three twenty two. At the same time, you're thinking, well, 0:15:17.800 --> 0:15:20.320 can you give the ball back to Mahomes with four minutes? 0:15:20.480 --> 0:15:22.840 But we all agreed he's going to kick the field goal. 0:15:22.960 --> 0:15:24.600 Is that true? Will do we all agree that he 0:15:24.640 --> 0:15:25.640 was going to kick the field goal. 0:15:26.560 --> 0:15:29.320 I thought like sixty forty seventy thirty he'd kick it 0:15:29.320 --> 0:15:31.720 because I remember texting you guys before the third down 0:15:31.760 --> 0:15:33.720 player was like third and goal from the six or seven. 0:15:33.920 --> 0:15:35.640 I said, if he doesn't get another yard, he kicks 0:15:35.640 --> 0:15:37.080 the field goal, right and Gil said yes, And I 0:15:37.120 --> 0:15:38.520 was like, I kind of agree, and. 0:15:38.520 --> 0:15:39.960 Then he didn't. 0:15:40.000 --> 0:15:42.320 But I thought it was like, not like ninety ten, 0:15:42.360 --> 0:15:43.760 but more sixty seventy percent. 0:15:43.800 --> 0:15:46.440 Is that fair? Give I'm hoping he can. I'm hoping. 0:15:46.880 --> 0:15:48.600 I'm hoping he kicks the field goal to go to 0:15:48.640 --> 0:15:51.280 twenty two twenty and then Kansas City just tries to 0:15:51.360 --> 0:15:54.520 run out the clock and there's almost no chance of overtime. 0:15:54.560 --> 0:15:56.800 There's no chance of any trouble. I don't want him 0:15:56.840 --> 0:15:58.560 going for it because if he goes for it and 0:15:58.640 --> 0:16:01.120 gets it, now they thyar it. I could get a touchdown, 0:16:01.280 --> 0:16:03.120 get a two point conversion, go up twenty five to 0:16:03.120 --> 0:16:05.280 twenty two, then Kansas City could come back and tie 0:16:05.360 --> 0:16:07.160 twenty five all and then all of a sudden, my 0:16:07.160 --> 0:16:09.800 team total is in danger. So of course to torture me, 0:16:10.120 --> 0:16:12.200 the guy goes for it fourth and five. Now, that 0:16:12.280 --> 0:16:16.360 wasn't the worst scenario yet by Raheem Morris. I thought 0:16:16.360 --> 0:16:18.680 that was questionable, but okay, I'll give it to him. 0:16:18.840 --> 0:16:19.040 Now. 0:16:19.120 --> 0:16:22.040 By the ways, let me just let me just interrupt 0:16:22.080 --> 0:16:24.000 your second That was a fourth Just to give the detail. 0:16:24.000 --> 0:16:26.280 That was fourth and five at the Kansas City six 0:16:26.800 --> 0:16:29.400 with four to h eight to go, where Raheem decided 0:16:29.440 --> 0:16:31.360 to go for it. It was it was the incomplete pass 0:16:31.400 --> 0:16:33.280 intended for London and in the end zone where the 0:16:33.320 --> 0:16:34.640 PI was not called. 0:16:35.600 --> 0:16:37.720 Right And by the way, I know everyone says the 0:16:37.760 --> 0:16:40.160 Chiefs get every call. Yeah, in the first half, Chris 0:16:40.240 --> 0:16:42.320 Jones got called for roughing the passer when he couldn't 0:16:42.320 --> 0:16:44.640 even see the quarterback. So you know, I agree, do 0:16:44.720 --> 0:16:47.320 me a favorite calm down with your Chiefs. Nonsense. Okay, 0:16:47.360 --> 0:16:49.720 So the Chiefs go out three and out right away, 0:16:50.080 --> 0:16:53.360 and now at Lana's got the ball again to twenty 0:16:53.400 --> 0:16:56.000 six to go, and the whole time we're going down, 0:16:56.040 --> 0:17:01.160 I'm texting the guys, don't score too early, Raheem, because 0:17:01.200 --> 0:17:02.640 if you get a touchdown to go to twenty three 0:17:02.720 --> 0:17:04.320 twenty two and you miss the two, or even if 0:17:04.320 --> 0:17:07.440 you make the two, you don't want to give Mahomes 0:17:07.440 --> 0:17:09.120 a chance to get an easy field goal to tie 0:17:09.160 --> 0:17:13.240 or win the game. So slow the hell down. Of course, Raheem. 0:17:13.240 --> 0:17:15.480 Mors can't hear me, even though I'm screaming it to 0:17:15.520 --> 0:17:18.439 him through the television because they're already at the Kansas 0:17:18.480 --> 0:17:21.119 City twenty twenty two yard line with a one forty 0:17:21.119 --> 0:17:24.159 four to go. How about running the ball once or twice, Raheem, 0:17:24.520 --> 0:17:28.199 slow it down. There's no need to get the score 0:17:28.280 --> 0:17:30.080 and let Mahomes go right down and get a field 0:17:30.080 --> 0:17:31.600 going to beat you. What are you doing? 0:17:32.680 --> 0:17:35.119 There was a series there was a series of Kansas 0:17:35.160 --> 0:17:37.920 City defensive penalties though that helped him matriculate. So part 0:17:37.920 --> 0:17:39.159 of that's, you know, I get. 0:17:39.000 --> 0:17:42.119 What you're saying, though, Okay, fine, you can mix in 0:17:42.160 --> 0:17:44.679 some runs. He doesn't want to do it. So now 0:17:45.160 --> 0:17:49.080 it's like one of three lefts. He gets a pass 0:17:49.160 --> 0:17:51.440 to London to the eleven yards. It's third and one 0:17:51.560 --> 0:17:53.440 with one oh three to go at the Kansas City 0:17:53.520 --> 0:17:57.680 thirteen he calls time out. Me everybody on the text 0:17:57.760 --> 0:18:02.240 threat goes apoplectic. Why are you calling time out with 0:18:02.440 --> 0:18:04.600 one oh three to go on a third and one 0:18:04.720 --> 0:18:06.960 in that spot? And even if you want to use 0:18:06.960 --> 0:18:10.000 your time out to discuss the play let twenty five 0:18:10.040 --> 0:18:12.400 seconds run down and call the time out with forty seconds, 0:18:12.440 --> 0:18:15.240 there's no need to call time out and save time 0:18:15.320 --> 0:18:19.000 for Atlanta, I mean for Kansas City? What are you doing? Raheim? 0:18:19.520 --> 0:18:22.199 And he's I'm literally gonna jump through the television and 0:18:22.280 --> 0:18:25.440 just like strangle this guy. I can't believe that he's 0:18:25.480 --> 0:18:27.880 not he calls time out. Okay, fine, so it's third 0:18:27.920 --> 0:18:32.320 and one. He goes for no game fifty six seconds left, 0:18:32.400 --> 0:18:34.439 it's gonna be fourth and one. This idiot calls time 0:18:34.480 --> 0:18:36.640 out when Amy Reid was trying to call time out. 0:18:36.960 --> 0:18:40.840 Andy Reid is trying to cald time out to save 0:18:41.119 --> 0:18:44.359 time for the Chiefs, but guess what, raheem beats them 0:18:44.400 --> 0:18:45.480 to him Raheem. 0:18:45.640 --> 0:18:50.359 No no, no, no, no, no, no no. Yeah. 0:18:50.560 --> 0:18:54.000 Andy Reid didn't realize how dumb Raheem was gonna be, 0:18:54.400 --> 0:18:57.439 so he beats him to the time out. Raheem's trying 0:18:57.480 --> 0:19:00.359 to give it to him. You can't make this stuff up. 0:19:00.440 --> 0:19:03.720 And by the way, these people make millions of dollars, okay, 0:19:04.119 --> 0:19:06.439 millions of dollars. And by the way, don't tell me 0:19:06.480 --> 0:19:08.520 there's such genius. And now, Andy Reid, I'll give it 0:19:08.520 --> 0:19:11.600 to you all day, Raheem Morris. I guarantee you any 0:19:11.640 --> 0:19:13.919 of us here watch as much film as Raheem Morris. 0:19:13.960 --> 0:19:16.560 We're not making that mistake. Okay. So now it's fourth 0:19:16.600 --> 0:19:19.639 down and one fifty seconds left, and Gilly, you can 0:19:19.720 --> 0:19:22.959 take it from here with a gorgeous play call on 0:19:23.119 --> 0:19:25.440 fourth and one from the Kansas City thirteen. 0:19:28.280 --> 0:19:30.720 Oh yeah, fourth in inches of the Kansas City thirteen. 0:19:31.200 --> 0:19:33.280 We know that Cousins not in the same way that 0:19:33.280 --> 0:19:36.080 Philip Rivers never ever snuck in his entire career. Like 0:19:36.080 --> 0:19:39.639 there's this apruder film of one time Philip Rivers actually snuck. 0:19:39.880 --> 0:19:42.920 But Cousins is not a sneaker anymore, right, Like we knew, 0:19:42.920 --> 0:19:46.040 so that play was off the table, and instead of 0:19:46.200 --> 0:19:50.280 just going forward, straightforward try to get the inches, they 0:19:50.320 --> 0:19:53.640 do the old hand off east west of bijon three 0:19:53.720 --> 0:19:58.480 yard loss ballgame because Morris had used the time out 0:19:58.520 --> 0:20:00.280 and the math no longer worked out out. 0:20:00.720 --> 0:20:01.720 So that was that. 0:20:01.720 --> 0:20:05.080 That was the ballgame over by the way, Steve, I 0:20:05.119 --> 0:20:09.919 want one PostScript to this, Steve Pheasick, legitimate pace is ridiculous. 0:20:10.119 --> 0:20:14.320 The man is ridiculous. He he legitimately believes that Andy 0:20:14.480 --> 0:20:17.960 Reid should have been smarten. I can't even say it 0:20:17.960 --> 0:20:20.760 without laughing. Should have been smart enough to know that 0:20:20.920 --> 0:20:23.600 Raheem Morris was that dumb that he would have called 0:20:23.640 --> 0:20:24.720 the second time out. 0:20:24.760 --> 0:20:26.679 But the truth is he he was that dumb on 0:20:26.760 --> 0:20:31.400 the first one. So across the way, and this dummy's 0:20:31.440 --> 0:20:33.520 gonna do it to us again, give us a free timeout. 0:20:33.840 --> 0:20:35.240 It's unbelievable. 0:20:35.640 --> 0:20:39.240 By the way, guys, if only we had had some 0:20:39.320 --> 0:20:41.760 indication that Raheem Morris was a better coordinator than a 0:20:41.800 --> 0:20:44.800 head coach, you know, we just had no idea that 0:20:44.840 --> 0:20:47.040 he was. That he didn't have the goods. If only 0:20:47.080 --> 0:20:50.359 we had had some indication that the Falcon's decision making 0:20:50.400 --> 0:20:52.840 this offseason was not great, you know, like that is 0:20:52.920 --> 0:20:55.159 no way to tell. There was no way to tell. 0:20:55.080 --> 0:20:55.800 No way to tell. 0:20:56.280 --> 0:21:00.399 Belichick. I can remember it pretty closely, I don't. I 0:21:00.640 --> 0:21:04.359 just draw a blank with the Raheem Morris first coaching tenure. 0:21:04.400 --> 0:21:05.800 Do you guys remember that well when he was the 0:21:05.800 --> 0:21:07.919 head coach? Was that the Josh Freeman air? I'm just 0:21:08.320 --> 0:21:09.639 to me, that's a blank spot for me. 0:21:10.280 --> 0:21:12.560 Yeah, I remember, well, either he was terribleized. 0:21:12.640 --> 0:21:14.760 I think I think we decided rahe Morris is the 0:21:14.840 --> 0:21:17.359 Dumbo of the week. We don't even need to. 0:21:17.000 --> 0:21:20.240 It's close, though, serious, it's close, but yeah, it's close, 0:21:20.440 --> 0:21:22.840 you know, Okay, ready for best? 0:21:23.119 --> 0:21:25.520 The other quick one, the other quick one, just thirty seconds, 0:21:25.520 --> 0:21:28.080 real quick on the bronch. I've had real success on 0:21:28.119 --> 0:21:29.919 the third quarters. I talk about the third quarters all 0:21:29.960 --> 0:21:32.520 the time on the megapod. But third quarter of the 0:21:32.560 --> 0:21:35.639 Giants game, it's twenty one to seven, Giants, Brown's getting 0:21:35.680 --> 0:21:38.320 the ball start the third quarter. I don't want the 0:21:38.480 --> 0:21:41.440 under until I see what the Browns adjustments are at halftime, 0:21:41.560 --> 0:21:43.920 because the first half they can't block at all, They 0:21:44.000 --> 0:21:47.240 literally cannot block at all, and Deshaun Watson has no time. 0:21:47.400 --> 0:21:50.520 I want to play under anything under seven and a 0:21:50.520 --> 0:21:52.400 half here in the third quarter. If I but I'm 0:21:52.440 --> 0:21:54.679 scared to play it at halftime because the Browns are 0:21:54.680 --> 0:21:56.920 going to come out in the first drive. As soon 0:21:56.960 --> 0:21:58.880 as the Browns went three and out in that third quarter, 0:21:58.880 --> 0:22:01.000 you could still get under seven and a half minus 0:22:01.000 --> 0:22:04.560 one thirty five. I immediately played it. Why because the 0:22:04.600 --> 0:22:06.200 Giants up twenty one to seven, are going to be 0:22:06.240 --> 0:22:08.120 as conservative as gonna be in the third quarter. They're 0:22:08.119 --> 0:22:10.080 gonna run the ball. They're gonna just try to get 0:22:10.119 --> 0:22:12.120 to the end of this game. So I take under 0:22:12.200 --> 0:22:14.840 seven and a half Giants right there. Didn't sweat at 0:22:14.880 --> 0:22:17.280 all because by the time the Browns get the ball 0:22:17.280 --> 0:22:20.000 back number one, they can't block number two. They can't 0:22:20.000 --> 0:22:22.720 score if you can't block, so even if they did, 0:22:22.920 --> 0:22:24.920 it was gonna take them forever to get a touchdown. 0:22:25.080 --> 0:22:27.600 I thought that third quarter, along with the Miami third 0:22:27.680 --> 0:22:30.520 quarter under or two juicy juicy third quarters. 0:22:31.000 --> 0:22:32.879 I also just think that the best, like we just 0:22:32.880 --> 0:22:35.960 give a Macro thing on in game, the Kansas City 0:22:36.040 --> 0:22:38.360 double dip right double dips are still the way to go. 0:22:38.400 --> 0:22:41.040 I think those are those are still if you're to 0:22:41.080 --> 0:22:46.280 ask what is generally the most advantageous moment to bet 0:22:46.320 --> 0:22:49.679 something in an NFL game. Remember, Kansas City had a 0:22:49.720 --> 0:22:52.199 double dip coming and they were they were losing, and 0:22:52.240 --> 0:22:54.720 the money line was very affordable at that point. And 0:22:54.760 --> 0:22:58.160 by the way, as I recall, it can't adjust to Gilly, 0:22:58.200 --> 0:22:58.919 what's that they do? 0:22:58.960 --> 0:23:01.920 It just better us a lot more, they really do. 0:23:02.880 --> 0:23:05.160 And in whatever what ended up happening was that Kansas 0:23:05.200 --> 0:23:08.080 City didn't actually execute the first half. But then your 0:23:08.080 --> 0:23:10.560 boy Curtis Cousins threw a pick right, and so can't 0:23:10.600 --> 0:23:15.000 say yeah. But anyway, I think that's generally speaking, even 0:23:15.040 --> 0:23:16.879 though they are better at it than they used to 0:23:16.880 --> 0:23:20.080 be for sure. All right, Drew, you are the guests, sir, 0:23:20.800 --> 0:23:21.320 Thank you by the. 0:23:21.320 --> 0:23:23.800 Way about Thursday Night, Thursday Night, Oh. 0:23:23.680 --> 0:23:26.680 Thursday Night, Thank you Todd. For God's sake, that's your podcast. 0:23:26.720 --> 0:23:27.520 Thank you bummer. 0:23:27.560 --> 0:23:29.320 I was going to go right into some of Atlanta bashing. 0:23:32.480 --> 0:23:34.280 I actually do have a best bet on the Thursday 0:23:34.320 --> 0:23:39.320 night game. Does anybody else? I do too? 0:23:39.440 --> 0:23:42.160 First, because he hasn't talked, and he's also he's done 0:23:42.200 --> 0:23:47.920 with his ice cream a sprinkles. 0:23:46.040 --> 0:23:47.840 I am going to late here. What do we have 0:23:47.920 --> 0:23:50.360 for the line? Gilly five five? 0:23:52.440 --> 0:23:56.440 It is five oh yeah, I got five and a half. 0:23:56.480 --> 0:23:58.400 Now five and a half and forty five. 0:23:58.440 --> 0:24:01.800 Okay, yeah, this is interesting. It's gone from four to 0:24:01.840 --> 0:24:04.200 six back down to like I saw four this morning, 0:24:04.200 --> 0:24:06.920 where it's all within the same like twenty four hours, 0:24:06.920 --> 0:24:09.280 which is unusual. A lot of dead numbers between four 0:24:09.320 --> 0:24:12.040 and six, but all lay with Dallas. I just think 0:24:12.080 --> 0:24:14.359 this is a spot where, hey, they're good as a favorite, 0:24:14.359 --> 0:24:16.600 they're good as a bully, they desperately need the game. 0:24:17.000 --> 0:24:18.960 I do think there's a little bit of a reaction 0:24:19.040 --> 0:24:21.160 and overreaction to hey, the Giants looked good last week. 0:24:21.200 --> 0:24:23.440 Dallas hasn't played well in a couple of weeks. Dallas 0:24:23.480 --> 0:24:25.760 has absolutely owned the Giants. And the Giants are missing. 0:24:26.240 --> 0:24:27.880 I don't know if they're missing or they're just hurt. 0:24:28.240 --> 0:24:30.080 I haven't gotten the official like we're not going to 0:24:30.119 --> 0:24:32.000 see the actives and actives for a while. I don't 0:24:32.000 --> 0:24:33.920 know if we have clarity. But the Giants secondary is 0:24:34.000 --> 0:24:36.000 all beat up. I think this is a good spot 0:24:36.040 --> 0:24:38.520 for Dallas to get back on track. So I'm okay 0:24:38.600 --> 0:24:40.480 Dallas winning this game by a touchdown plus and. 0:24:40.440 --> 0:24:41.200 Once they get a lead. 0:24:41.240 --> 0:24:43.159 This is the kind of team Daniel Jones where they 0:24:43.160 --> 0:24:46.840 can gamble on defense, make be aggressive for some turnovers, 0:24:46.880 --> 0:24:48.600 for some mistakes. So I'm okay laying in here with 0:24:48.640 --> 0:24:49.600 the Dallas Cowboys. 0:24:50.920 --> 0:24:53.280 I went under. I don't hate yours at all, Will 0:24:53.320 --> 0:24:55.000 I went under on this. By the way, did you 0:24:55.000 --> 0:24:57.520 see the stat This is the first time ever that 0:24:57.600 --> 0:25:00.200 the Dallas Cowboys have played a road game on three 0:25:00.240 --> 0:25:03.200 days rest, and that every other team in the league 0:25:03.280 --> 0:25:06.600 has done it at least six times. Something like that 0:25:08.000 --> 0:25:11.000 one because they get a Thanksgiving home game. That's exactly right. 0:25:11.080 --> 0:25:14.440 Detroit had the same thing. But then Detroit played had 0:25:14.440 --> 0:25:16.600 this exact same situation last year I believe where they 0:25:16.640 --> 0:25:19.960 played on the road in the Week four. Yeah, I'm 0:25:19.960 --> 0:25:21.440 gonna take the under. There's the only thing that worked 0:25:21.480 --> 0:25:23.840 for me last week was the Thursday night under. I'm 0:25:23.840 --> 0:25:26.239 doing it again this week. This one is you know, 0:25:26.760 --> 0:25:29.080 Dak has these weird home road splits. I don't know 0:25:29.119 --> 0:25:30.720 how much to make of that, but he did suck 0:25:30.840 --> 0:25:33.040 epa per dropback last year. He is like thirtieth in 0:25:33.040 --> 0:25:36.600 the league on the road. Not so good this year 0:25:36.640 --> 0:25:38.600 as compared to home. But the big thing with the 0:25:38.640 --> 0:25:41.320 Cowboys is Tyron Smith. The loss of him is like 0:25:41.440 --> 0:25:47.240 a huge deal. He allowed through through nine games. Last 0:25:47.320 --> 0:25:50.240 year took him nine games to allow eight pressures. Tyler Geiton, 0:25:50.280 --> 0:25:52.720 the kid that's replaced him, has already allowed that many 0:25:53.240 --> 0:25:55.240 in three games, and he's got to deal with Brian 0:25:55.320 --> 0:25:59.640 Burns Today. Brian Burns has generated fifteen pressures. That's ninth. 0:25:59.680 --> 0:26:04.920 In the end, NFL ceede Lam still has the ankle injury. Dallas, 0:26:04.960 --> 0:26:08.840 in terms of their EPA per rush attempt allowed is 0:26:08.880 --> 0:26:11.520 really bad. I'm not sure if New York can exploit 0:26:11.560 --> 0:26:13.320 it the same way that the Saints and Ravens can, 0:26:13.680 --> 0:26:16.760 but they could exploit it, perhaps enough to churn the clock. 0:26:19.119 --> 0:26:20.959 Dallas also, and this is the biggest thing also that 0:26:21.040 --> 0:26:23.720 the sort of the eyes don't catch. I love talking 0:26:23.720 --> 0:26:26.200 about red zone offense and red zone defense. Last year 0:26:26.320 --> 0:26:30.960 Cleveland really good defense, worst red zone touchdown percentage in 0:26:31.000 --> 0:26:33.240 the entire league. They gave up touchdowns at seventy one 0:26:33.280 --> 0:26:38.359 percent rate. Those things are generally regression candidates, and the 0:26:38.400 --> 0:26:43.520 Cowboys through three weeks have given up ninety percent touchdowns 0:26:43.560 --> 0:26:47.320 on opponents in the red zone. That should probably regress 0:26:47.440 --> 0:26:50.439 quickly tonight, I'm guessing so. And by the way, the 0:26:50.480 --> 0:26:53.080 general scoring environment in the NFL through three weeks is 0:26:53.119 --> 0:26:55.920 down two point seven points, so short, you know, it's 0:26:55.920 --> 0:26:58.600 a short turnaround for both of these teams. The Giants 0:26:58.640 --> 0:27:00.959 offense is not anything to be scared up to begin with. 0:27:01.000 --> 0:27:03.560 The Dallas defense has been suspect, So I think the 0:27:03.640 --> 0:27:05.760 combination of all those things, the regression in the red zone, 0:27:06.280 --> 0:27:07.959 forty five and a half is not a is not 0:27:08.040 --> 0:27:09.359 that low of a number. So I'm gonna go on 0:27:09.720 --> 0:27:10.320 forty five. 0:27:10.520 --> 0:27:12.520 Is it really forty five? And I think it's forty five? 0:27:12.720 --> 0:27:14.760 Right, it's forty five. You're correct, it's forty five and 0:27:14.800 --> 0:27:15.920 a half this morning, forty five. 0:27:16.320 --> 0:27:18.200 I love this pick by the day, Gilly, I love 0:27:18.240 --> 0:27:20.960 this pic. That's this is a great The Giants can't. 0:27:20.760 --> 0:27:25.639 Score, Yeah, but Willie scenario, that's a game that's a 0:27:25.760 --> 0:27:28.240 game script that scares me though, right Like if Dallas 0:27:28.280 --> 0:27:30.560 does get into this lead mode where they're just like 0:27:30.600 --> 0:27:33.199 and then they then the deep and then Mike and. 0:27:33.760 --> 0:27:37.040 You lose thirty, that's how that's how you lose exactly. 0:27:38.080 --> 0:27:41.280 That's my number one today, Drew, You're. 0:27:41.200 --> 0:27:47.359 On, Okay, I'll go to the aforementioned Falcons Saints game. 0:27:47.920 --> 0:27:51.480 Uh and uh. I'll take the Saints plus the points 0:27:51.920 --> 0:27:55.000 plus two and a half work for everybody. I actually 0:27:55.080 --> 0:27:58.080 bet the money line here. I think the Saints are 0:27:58.080 --> 0:28:01.280 the better team. I don't think, And really I just 0:28:01.280 --> 0:28:03.359 want to kind of key on, like there's a lot 0:28:03.359 --> 0:28:05.840 of people who have made a lot of noise this 0:28:05.920 --> 0:28:10.359 week about the Saints center being out and haven't acknowledged 0:28:10.359 --> 0:28:13.840 the fact that the Falcons center is out, and that 0:28:13.960 --> 0:28:19.360 the Falcons are doing an awful lot of shotgun snapping 0:28:19.640 --> 0:28:23.240 to Kirk Cousins right now, and good luck kind of 0:28:23.280 --> 0:28:26.320 on a in a high pressure week figuring that out, 0:28:26.600 --> 0:28:30.040 you know, entirely smoothly. But even more than that, Like, 0:28:30.080 --> 0:28:32.320 the backup center for the Saints is fine. That he was, 0:28:32.760 --> 0:28:35.640 you know, a serviceable player for the Bears last couple 0:28:35.680 --> 0:28:37.800 of years, and I have no issues with him stepping 0:28:37.840 --> 0:28:40.240 in and being fine. At the backup center for the 0:28:40.240 --> 0:28:44.200 Falcons is a man named Ryan new Zill And I 0:28:44.240 --> 0:28:46.200 think that just in general, if you want to have 0:28:46.280 --> 0:28:48.640 questions about both of these offenses, fine, If you want 0:28:48.680 --> 0:28:51.920 to have questions about the Falcons defense, you are correct. 0:28:52.000 --> 0:28:54.040 But I think there is a standout unit in this game, 0:28:54.080 --> 0:28:56.880 and it is the Saints defense. I'm expecting that to 0:28:57.000 --> 0:28:59.920 Mario Douglas will play. I'm expecting that Alantae Taylor will 0:28:59.960 --> 0:29:02.880 be over his illness, and I think the matchup of 0:29:02.920 --> 0:29:06.920 the coverage unit in particular against this kind of relatively 0:29:07.880 --> 0:29:10.440 group of skill position players for the Falcons is a 0:29:10.520 --> 0:29:14.680 solid positive matchup for Saints defense. And then I think 0:29:14.720 --> 0:29:17.160 that just in general, you can absolutely pray on this 0:29:17.240 --> 0:29:19.840 Falcons defense if you're Clint Kubiak. I like what he's 0:29:19.840 --> 0:29:22.360 doing so far this season with the Saints offense. Huge 0:29:22.360 --> 0:29:24.560 step forward from what we saw last year under Carmichael, 0:29:25.120 --> 0:29:26.920 and I think the Saints get a clean win and 0:29:27.240 --> 0:29:29.880 seized control of the NFC South, at least for the 0:29:29.880 --> 0:29:33.040 time being until we see some Saints Tampa Bay matchups 0:29:33.120 --> 0:29:36.640 later this season. So the fact that you're getting your 0:29:36.720 --> 0:29:39.280 better coach, in my opinion, with Dennis Allen. I know 0:29:39.320 --> 0:29:41.840 that he's not especially popular, but I am not a 0:29:41.960 --> 0:29:45.600 Raheem Morris guy, and you're getting the healthier quarterback is 0:29:45.960 --> 0:29:47.680 a little bit of icing on the kick there. So 0:29:48.240 --> 0:29:49.600 Saints plus the two and a half. 0:29:49.400 --> 0:29:51.720 For me, Saints plus the two and a half one 0:29:51.720 --> 0:29:54.560 of eight early games this week. So this last week 0:29:54.560 --> 0:29:57.880 it was seven and seven in the early window than 0:29:58.040 --> 0:30:00.320 five in the late window with a two month nights. 0:30:00.400 --> 0:30:03.360 This week we have eight in the early window, four 0:30:03.480 --> 0:30:06.080 in the afternoon with the two Monday nights. Do we 0:30:06.120 --> 0:30:08.040 prefer I know, we don't prefer like the ten to 0:30:08.080 --> 0:30:10.200 three or the nine three that we've seen, those are awful. 0:30:10.760 --> 0:30:12.640 Do we like seven to five of the best? I 0:30:12.640 --> 0:30:15.360 think we do, right, Seven and five is the best, 0:30:16.200 --> 0:30:17.160 absolutely the best? 0:30:17.480 --> 0:30:17.840 Yeah? 0:30:17.880 --> 0:30:18.080 Eight. 0:30:19.160 --> 0:30:21.080 Honestly, I just want better Sunday football. 0:30:22.160 --> 0:30:24.400 Oh you know what, Drew. I'm so glad you said this. 0:30:25.080 --> 0:30:26.000 Do you remember, Drew? 0:30:26.040 --> 0:30:27.920 This was you put him in whatever order you want, 0:30:28.080 --> 0:30:29.520 just give us a better football. 0:30:30.520 --> 0:30:32.840 So last year I remember, Drew, you and I saw 0:30:32.920 --> 0:30:35.440 this the same too. I remember last year was the 0:30:35.480 --> 0:30:40.200 first time that I ever said wow. And this was 0:30:40.280 --> 0:30:42.480 right around weeks three and four of last year too, 0:30:42.880 --> 0:30:45.400 where it was like, man, these last two weeks of 0:30:45.480 --> 0:30:49.800 Sunday football have felt like work, and I never feel 0:30:49.840 --> 0:30:52.640 that way on Sunday football. But this last week it 0:30:52.680 --> 0:30:55.160 came back to me again. Is that because of the 0:30:55.200 --> 0:30:58.280 three preseason games. Is that because they shortened preseason. 0:30:58.920 --> 0:31:01.120 It's more of probably just the young you know, the 0:31:01.160 --> 0:31:04.400 age and the experience of the quarterbacks. And the aggressive 0:31:04.400 --> 0:31:07.680 turnover of offensive coordinators. Like I think that it's just 0:31:07.800 --> 0:31:10.400 it's taking longer for teams to kind of find any 0:31:10.400 --> 0:31:14.120 footing on offense, and the old saying of defenses ahead 0:31:14.160 --> 0:31:17.720 offense has probably never been more true, especially early in 0:31:17.760 --> 0:31:20.280 the season. Now, whether this carries through is more of 0:31:20.320 --> 0:31:24.200 a quarterbacks just weren't ready to play, and you know, 0:31:24.240 --> 0:31:26.040 we'll see you with the likes of the Caleb Williams 0:31:26.080 --> 0:31:28.120 and the Will Levice's of the world if that just 0:31:28.160 --> 0:31:31.360 if they just continue to stub their toe. But yeah, 0:31:31.400 --> 0:31:34.080 I mean, I'm at least we have Daniels for now. 0:31:35.080 --> 0:31:37.240 I think, yeah, we got Jayden Daniels, that's for sure. 0:31:37.280 --> 0:31:39.720 I I think it's all of that. And it's also like, 0:31:40.000 --> 0:31:42.680 you know, hey, Bryce Young, you had a terrible rookie year. 0:31:43.120 --> 0:31:46.880 We play you one one set of downs, like one 0:31:47.000 --> 0:31:50.440 drive was one drive in the preseason. Yep, we've seen enough. 0:31:50.480 --> 0:31:56.480 You're good. Come on. Really, So there's that will will 0:31:56.560 --> 0:31:58.040 or Todd who goes who goes first? Ye? 0:32:00.400 --> 0:32:00.600 Yes? 0:32:00.680 --> 0:32:00.920 Yeah. 0:32:01.000 --> 0:32:02.560 By the way, I just want to talk about with 0:32:02.720 --> 0:32:05.680 me and Willie are always looking during the game at 0:32:05.720 --> 0:32:08.840 the pass attempts by the quarterback. Who's going to be trailing, 0:32:09.360 --> 0:32:11.560 and we should probably talk a little bit about that, 0:32:11.640 --> 0:32:14.520 because you know we've Willy jumped on I think it 0:32:14.560 --> 0:32:16.960 was Willy you jumped on it right away with Trevor 0:32:17.040 --> 0:32:20.080 Lawrence early on. You can see that the Jaguars defense 0:32:20.160 --> 0:32:22.239 did not decide to show up. I believe they were 0:32:22.240 --> 0:32:24.520 still on the bus halfway through the second quarter, and 0:32:24.800 --> 0:32:27.400 Willy immediately said, Hey, Lawrence is going to be slinging 0:32:27.400 --> 0:32:30.400 it the whole time, and Willie, your thoughts on that 0:32:30.480 --> 0:32:32.600 is just that. I think we should also talk about 0:32:32.600 --> 0:32:35.440 what's the baseline and halftime. It seems they want twenty 0:32:35.480 --> 0:32:38.040 and a half more passes for the so if a 0:32:38.040 --> 0:32:40.239 guy has fifteen attempts, they're going to put it at 0:32:40.280 --> 0:32:42.080 like thirty five and a half thirty six and a 0:32:42.120 --> 0:32:44.320 half for the second half. And then maybe you should 0:32:44.360 --> 0:32:47.800 talk about what we need to think we can happen, 0:32:47.840 --> 0:32:49.480 like can we move the sticks and stuff like that. 0:32:51.080 --> 0:32:53.360 Yeah, I haven't done the math in terms of like 0:32:53.400 --> 0:32:55.280 this is the pregame number, this is how many has 0:32:55.320 --> 0:32:57.080 now in this how many they're projecting. But I've done it. 0:32:57.080 --> 0:32:58.760 We've done these enough where I can just sort of 0:32:58.800 --> 0:33:01.080 hyge it out when you and I I'll text back like, oh, 0:33:01.120 --> 0:33:01.920 it just looks too high. 0:33:02.320 --> 0:33:03.400 It's one of those things where if. 0:33:03.280 --> 0:33:05.000 He needs twenty five attempts in the second half, that's 0:33:05.040 --> 0:33:07.120 just that's a lot of attempts. But I would phrase 0:33:07.160 --> 0:33:09.480 it this way. It's rarely wrong when you get the 0:33:09.520 --> 0:33:11.600 sense of like a Monday night where it's seven to nothing, 0:33:11.920 --> 0:33:14.080 team is losing, the other team's driving, it's clearly about 0:33:14.080 --> 0:33:15.800 to be fourteen nothing. All right, it's gonna be one 0:33:15.800 --> 0:33:17.640 of these games they're gonna have to play catch up. 0:33:17.680 --> 0:33:19.840 It was Dak a couple week weeks ago against the Saints, 0:33:19.960 --> 0:33:21.720 where you can tell pretty early, right, this team's in 0:33:21.720 --> 0:33:23.960 a hole. You want a pretty good quarterback because you 0:33:23.960 --> 0:33:25.840 don't want a Will Levis or a Brissett where they're 0:33:25.840 --> 0:33:27.640 gonna go three and out. You want enough where you 0:33:27.680 --> 0:33:30.480 can kind of get those garbage yards. Garbage completions leads 0:33:30.480 --> 0:33:32.800 to more attempts. I mean, you always have to worry 0:33:32.800 --> 0:33:34.720 about the guy gets pulled and you get burned. We 0:33:34.760 --> 0:33:37.040 got burned, I think with Stafford a couple of weeks ago, 0:33:37.040 --> 0:33:39.000 where you got taken out and if you played Lawrence late, 0:33:39.000 --> 0:33:40.560 you got burned because he was out for the last 0:33:40.800 --> 0:33:44.560 seven minutes. But just generally, a decent quarterback, their team 0:33:44.600 --> 0:33:46.160 falls behind it and they're gonna have to throw, They're 0:33:46.160 --> 0:33:48.760 gonna have to score, they're gonna have to throw. Catching 0:33:48.800 --> 0:33:51.320 that early usually it's in like the mid to high thirties, 0:33:51.680 --> 0:33:53.600 those are usually pretty good over so in terms of 0:33:53.640 --> 0:33:56.360 the quarterback attempts, and I. 0:33:56.320 --> 0:33:58.200 Think you want to be ahead of twenty and a 0:33:58.240 --> 0:34:00.560 half more going to the second and a half. Of course, 0:34:00.600 --> 0:34:02.640 it also matters who gets the ball first in the 0:34:02.680 --> 0:34:03.280 third quarter. 0:34:03.440 --> 0:34:07.320 If the Jaguars one of those games we tried to bet, 0:34:07.360 --> 0:34:08.520 I think it was the Burrow when I was like, 0:34:08.680 --> 0:34:10.520 he can't. Yeah, he's gonna get the attempts, but his 0:34:10.600 --> 0:34:13.000 defense like he can't get the ball back, which obviously 0:34:13.000 --> 0:34:14.680 that's a factor. So there's a lot of moving parts 0:34:14.680 --> 0:34:16.400 in it. But just in general, if you see a 0:34:16.400 --> 0:34:18.959 decent team, a decent quarterback fall behind, you know, pretty 0:34:19.000 --> 0:34:22.040 early fourteen seventeen, it's you know, you don't want to 0:34:22.040 --> 0:34:24.080 be in a situation where it's like ten to nothing. 0:34:24.160 --> 0:34:26.279 Then it's you can stick to like that run heavy 0:34:26.280 --> 0:34:28.000 script or one score gets him back in the game, 0:34:28.360 --> 0:34:31.479 or our neutral script. But if a good team falls behind, 0:34:31.520 --> 0:34:36.480 pretty big pretty early. Those attempts add up quickly. We 0:34:36.520 --> 0:34:39.040 also got burned on at the end the same game. 0:34:39.080 --> 0:34:40.880 At the end we had under forty one and a 0:34:40.880 --> 0:34:43.680 half rushing yards. He had nine at the half, and 0:34:43.760 --> 0:34:45.879 I was already counting the money because I thought he's 0:34:45.880 --> 0:34:47.719 not even going to get many carries in the second half. 0:34:47.719 --> 0:34:49.640 Down thirty four to three. Of course, we got burned 0:34:49.680 --> 0:34:52.719 because the Jaguars were doing that old stick where they're like, well, 0:34:52.760 --> 0:34:54.640 on first down, we better hand it off otherwise they're 0:34:54.640 --> 0:34:56.840 going to kill our quarterback. And at the Enronley for 0:34:56.880 --> 0:34:58.560 like a thousand, the one. 0:34:58.400 --> 0:35:00.360 That put it over the top, they pulled rant to 0:35:00.360 --> 0:35:02.080 figure out right, they're calling off the dogs. They putting 0:35:02.120 --> 0:35:04.120 Mac Jones first place, a little give up draw to 0:35:04.200 --> 0:35:05.960 a ten. Of course I can't get stopped. Of course 0:35:05.960 --> 0:35:07.960 he has to go for fifteen and beat us. But hey, 0:35:08.200 --> 0:35:09.759 it's it's one of those things good bets. 0:35:10.000 --> 0:35:11.440 I still thought it was a good bet. I thought 0:35:11.480 --> 0:35:13.480 it was a good bet by both of us. Anyway, Okay, 0:35:13.680 --> 0:35:17.400 first pick for me. And by the way, guys, there's 0:35:17.440 --> 0:35:21.360 definitely things that you can get on on these props 0:35:21.400 --> 0:35:23.479 in game. If you're allowed to bet props in game 0:35:23.640 --> 0:35:26.000 that are very advantageous. So that's why I bring it up, 0:35:26.000 --> 0:35:28.799 and me and Will you are always texting about it. Okay, anyways, 0:35:28.840 --> 0:35:33.440 my number one pick, I'm gonna go with your Detroit Lions. 0:35:33.640 --> 0:35:37.560 Okay, that's my number two too. Yeah, I like. 0:35:37.600 --> 0:35:40.200 Detroit minus I believe three and a half. Correct? Is 0:35:40.239 --> 0:35:43.400 that what everyone said? Detroit minus Detroit minus three and a 0:35:43.360 --> 0:35:46.200 half either. Dan Campbell got in the old locker room 0:35:46.239 --> 0:35:48.880 and he said, hey, look, we're gonna run the football. 0:35:49.160 --> 0:35:51.480 You're gonna line up and see if you can beat us. 0:35:51.520 --> 0:35:53.600 But I don't think you can because our big boys 0:35:53.600 --> 0:35:55.760 are bigger than your big boys. We're gonna just push 0:35:55.800 --> 0:35:59.839 you around. And I think that's the identity of this 0:36:00.040 --> 0:36:03.200 Detroit Lions football team. That coach wants to just be 0:36:03.280 --> 0:36:07.080 a bully. He wants to line up and push your guys. Look, 0:36:07.239 --> 0:36:09.680 we're gonna spash you in the math. And if you 0:36:09.760 --> 0:36:12.680 can stop us, you can stop us. If you can't, 0:36:12.880 --> 0:36:15.360 you can't, and Detroit is going to hopefully do it. 0:36:15.360 --> 0:36:15.520 Now. 0:36:15.520 --> 0:36:18.800 Look Seattle, what has Seattle done this year? The first 0:36:18.840 --> 0:36:22.439 game of the year. Who did Seattle play the first 0:36:22.520 --> 0:36:24.760 game of the year. I believe it was Bo Nicks 0:36:24.800 --> 0:36:28.640 at home with their good defensive coach, easy winner. Then 0:36:28.680 --> 0:36:31.680 they go to New England and they win in overtime. Again, 0:36:31.800 --> 0:36:36.080 you wouldn't exactly call it a world beater competition. Then 0:36:36.400 --> 0:36:41.560 they get Skyler Thompson. Now even I knew Skylar Thompson 0:36:41.600 --> 0:36:44.200 wasn't ready for the National Football League, everyone was like, oh, 0:36:44.239 --> 0:36:45.839 he played the playoff game. They only lost thirty four 0:36:45.840 --> 0:36:48.760 through he was eighteen for forty five. It had nothing 0:36:48.760 --> 0:36:51.120 to do with him. He was not ready for prime 0:36:51.239 --> 0:36:56.439 time Skyler Thompson. And again the Seahawks role. Now those 0:36:56.560 --> 0:37:00.000 three teams are not NFL caliber teams. Now the Detroit 0:37:00.120 --> 0:37:02.600 lines are going on the road, and you only you 0:37:02.640 --> 0:37:04.640 only have to lay three and a half against the 0:37:04.680 --> 0:37:07.399 Seahawk team, which may not be as good as this three. 0:37:07.400 --> 0:37:10.439 And oh warrants I have to take the Detroit line 0:37:10.480 --> 0:37:11.959 because we're gonna punch him in the math. 0:37:13.080 --> 0:37:15.560 Well, you and I match on this, Todd and Drew. 0:37:15.600 --> 0:37:17.319 Forgive me if I'm stealing some of your thunder on this, 0:37:17.320 --> 0:37:19.200 because Drew was on Numbers game earlier this week and 0:37:19.280 --> 0:37:22.520 we talked about it. Is exactly what you said about Seattle, right, Todd, 0:37:22.560 --> 0:37:25.040 that there's nothing they've done. And I have Mike McDonald 0:37:25.120 --> 0:37:27.000 Coach of the Year tickets, Drew, I know you do too, 0:37:27.400 --> 0:37:29.839 so only want the best for the Seahawks. My thing 0:37:30.040 --> 0:37:33.600 this offseason was they're gonna warm to Mike McDonald's defense 0:37:33.640 --> 0:37:35.719 over time. They've warmed to it very quickly, by the way, 0:37:35.800 --> 0:37:38.399 but they haven't really The three and oh they're three 0:37:38.440 --> 0:37:41.440 and oh seems a bit fugezy, right, seems a bit 0:37:41.560 --> 0:37:43.319 for all the reasons you stay. The flip side of 0:37:43.320 --> 0:37:46.600 that is Detroit's Detroit is kind of kind of feels 0:37:46.600 --> 0:37:50.480 like they're playing possum also, right, not playing possum on purpose, 0:37:50.760 --> 0:37:53.080 but they have not been as good as they should 0:37:53.120 --> 0:37:58.000 have been. They completely out yarded, if you will, outgained 0:37:58.040 --> 0:38:00.799 Tampa Bay. They doubled them up, if not more, in 0:38:00.840 --> 0:38:03.960 their loss to Tampa Bay. And then last week they 0:38:03.960 --> 0:38:06.359 were kind of listless against the Cardinals. But have their 0:38:06.440 --> 0:38:09.920 chances as well to blow that open, but they just 0:38:09.960 --> 0:38:13.759 never really would. So I think all both you put 0:38:13.800 --> 0:38:16.080 both of those things in right, Detroit sort of playing 0:38:16.120 --> 0:38:19.480 below level, Seattle perhaps outperforming, and you get this three 0:38:19.480 --> 0:38:21.920 and a half point line. I'm with you on Detroit. 0:38:25.160 --> 0:38:30.000 We'll go Willis Willi's willy, don't. 0:38:29.880 --> 0:38:34.120 Get here for I'm gonna just stick with it. I 0:38:34.200 --> 0:38:36.080 don't like it this week as much as in past weeks, 0:38:36.080 --> 0:38:38.600 but I said I'd stick with Steelers unders until they 0:38:38.600 --> 0:38:39.920 beat me, and they haven't beaten me yet, so I'm 0:38:39.920 --> 0:38:41.520 gonna go back to it. What do we have forty here? 0:38:42.840 --> 0:38:46.399 Forty? Forty is good? 0:38:47.440 --> 0:38:49.480 Forty is correct, Yes. 0:38:50.680 --> 0:38:53.399 Same handicap. Tomlin just wants to keep these games close 0:38:53.440 --> 0:38:55.839 and conservative and kick and punt and you know, kick 0:38:55.880 --> 0:38:57.839 his field goals and pot fourth and two or fourth 0:38:57.880 --> 0:39:00.960 and three from midfield. And uh, look, I don't know. 0:39:01.080 --> 0:39:03.040 Richardson's such a boomer bus player. I don't know how 0:39:03.040 --> 0:39:08.040 he factors into his handicap because he's just so daring 0:39:08.080 --> 0:39:10.840 with the ball but so inactate. That was an awful 0:39:10.880 --> 0:39:12.920 game he and Caleb Williams played last week. That was 0:39:12.960 --> 0:39:16.319 just a painful watch. Speaking to Drew and Gilly, your 0:39:16.320 --> 0:39:18.480 point about these games being tough to watch, that that 0:39:18.560 --> 0:39:20.239 led to charge That was a tough one. But I'm 0:39:20.280 --> 0:39:21.879 just gonna stick with it. I mean, these Steeler games 0:39:21.880 --> 0:39:25.560 are twenty to ten, twenty to twelve, thirteen to six. 0:39:25.719 --> 0:39:27.680 I look for another type of these game. It's gonna 0:39:27.680 --> 0:39:28.880 burn me one of these weeks, but I'll stick with 0:39:28.920 --> 0:39:31.640 it till beats me. So Steelers Colts under forty. 0:39:32.800 --> 0:39:36.560 I got a question for Drew dinsik Indians. Oh look 0:39:36.600 --> 0:39:40.680 the Stiller defense, right, it's a ferocious defense. We've got 0:39:40.760 --> 0:39:42.759 the most ferocias. Now, the question that I have for 0:39:42.840 --> 0:39:46.520 Yenza is the Rivers Casinos directly next to Akershuer stadiums 0:39:46.560 --> 0:39:49.799 charging one hundred dollars for self parking? Is that more 0:39:49.920 --> 0:39:53.839 vicious or bess vicious than the Stalwart D. I think 0:39:53.840 --> 0:39:56.600 the Stowart d is very vicious, but it's not at 0:39:56.640 --> 0:39:59.040 the level of one hundred dollars for self park Drew 0:39:59.200 --> 0:40:00.240 your thoughts. 0:40:01.040 --> 0:40:05.040 I'm going to say the parking is more vicious. I 0:40:05.120 --> 0:40:09.600 like the Steelers. I like the defense, but they you know, 0:40:09.680 --> 0:40:11.560 and much in the same way that you can kind 0:40:11.560 --> 0:40:14.320 of poke holes and the Seahawks about strength of opponent 0:40:14.400 --> 0:40:16.560 at this point in the season. Like the Steelers defensive, 0:40:16.840 --> 0:40:20.880 they've gotten to pick on the statue of Kirk Cousins 0:40:21.560 --> 0:40:25.400 bo Nicks, you know, in his second start, and then 0:40:25.480 --> 0:40:29.479 last week kind of the statue of Herbert for a half, 0:40:29.520 --> 0:40:32.000 and then you know, the mess of heinikey, So yeah, 0:40:32.200 --> 0:40:32.960 he was. 0:40:34.239 --> 0:40:36.719 Herbert was moving it on. To be fair, Herbert was 0:40:36.760 --> 0:40:38.240 moving it on them at. 0:40:38.080 --> 0:40:42.799 Half yeah, yeah, yeah, I had the tackles got hurt too. 0:40:43.640 --> 0:40:46.560 Yeah, the typical Tomlin walk of the offensive line gets 0:40:46.600 --> 0:40:48.040 hurt and Herbert, yeah, is. 0:40:48.080 --> 0:40:49.080 Quite strong this year. 0:40:49.320 --> 0:40:51.799 Yeah sure, Now, will would you say what you say? 0:40:51.880 --> 0:40:54.440 Eighty nine cents for the sprinkles at the at the 0:40:54.440 --> 0:40:58.160 Fever game is worse than the eighty dollars dining at 0:40:58.200 --> 0:41:01.440 the River's parking. It's a very close call. 0:41:01.040 --> 0:41:03.200 It is. It's not that there was eighty nine and 0:41:03.280 --> 0:41:04.880 we went to the drew that I went to the 0:41:04.880 --> 0:41:06.640 Fever Sun game last night and they're giving me a 0:41:06.640 --> 0:41:10.200 hard time about paying money because the tickets were too expensive, 0:41:10.239 --> 0:41:12.840 you guys thought for the game, which I didn't have 0:41:12.880 --> 0:41:14.160 a problem with the tickets. But then we went to 0:41:14.160 --> 0:41:16.080 Ben and Jerry's got some ice cream and there's like, 0:41:16.080 --> 0:41:18.080 maybe I don't know, a dozen sprinkles for like a 0:41:18.160 --> 0:41:20.239 dollar sprinkles, And that was that was a point of 0:41:20.239 --> 0:41:21.399 contention to catch you up here. 0:41:23.200 --> 0:41:26.040 Thanks for that recap, Thanks for you get to the 0:41:26.080 --> 0:41:26.840 audience up on it. 0:41:27.360 --> 0:41:27.640 Todd. 0:41:27.880 --> 0:41:31.720 You knew, Todd, you'd have a very likewise audience in Todd. 0:41:31.719 --> 0:41:33.759 He hates that kind of shit. By the way, NiCoT question, 0:41:33.880 --> 0:41:34.560 I expect. 0:41:34.320 --> 0:41:36.080 At least two dozen sprinkles if you're going to make 0:41:36.120 --> 0:41:36.760 me pay a dollar? 0:41:36.920 --> 0:41:41.520 Yeah, more more or ress? What was the word that 0:41:41.560 --> 0:41:44.160 you used there? More or rest or ress? 0:41:44.520 --> 0:41:47.800 Because the question is the defense. We got TJ. 0:41:47.920 --> 0:41:48.280 Watt. 0:41:48.440 --> 0:41:51.040 TJ Wat's worth fifty dollars of parking right there. Then 0:41:51.239 --> 0:41:52.839 EN's gotta think. Okay, now I get an ounther fifty 0:41:52.880 --> 0:41:55.400 dollars with the rest of the store team. Okay, so 0:41:55.480 --> 0:41:58.240 it's real close. It's probably like eighty nine to ninety 0:41:58.320 --> 0:42:01.160 nine for the stores. D and the one hundred. Tigin's 0:42:01.200 --> 0:42:02.920 got to go with the parking a little more vicious. 0:42:03.000 --> 0:42:03.759 I agree with Drew. 0:42:04.960 --> 0:42:07.560 What's your number two? Toddy? Okay? 0:42:07.600 --> 0:42:11.440 Will my number two? No, we'll, We'll just have to. 0:42:12.440 --> 0:42:14.560 I just had a very quick commentary that Todd has 0:42:14.719 --> 0:42:17.399 very little sense. You could tell he's a single guy 0:42:17.440 --> 0:42:19.680 of what things cost, Like, things cost money? How could 0:42:19.680 --> 0:42:21.160 you spend that much on the fever tickets? How can 0:42:21.160 --> 0:42:22.839 you spend that much? Have you been out of your house? 0:42:22.880 --> 0:42:23.080 Todd? 0:42:23.080 --> 0:42:24.520 Everything costs a lot of money. I don't know. 0:42:24.719 --> 0:42:25.480 There's a disconnect. 0:42:25.520 --> 0:42:28.120 Well, no, I do know that he has he has no. 0:42:29.120 --> 0:42:31.720 It's also that he also lives in nineteen eighty five, 0:42:32.120 --> 0:42:33.960 so he applies the same. He's like, I didn't pay 0:42:33.960 --> 0:42:36.640 for parking at three rivers in nineteen eighty five, Why. 0:42:36.520 --> 0:42:39.160 Should I pay parking now? I'm like, dude, it's like. 0:42:39.239 --> 0:42:41.759 Nineteen eighty five. So he's got that going. 0:42:42.440 --> 0:42:45.319 There are certain things on principle that I will not 0:42:45.560 --> 0:42:49.799 pay for. Okay, I'm so sorry. Okay, uh Now it's 0:42:49.840 --> 0:42:51.880 my turn for my number two pick, and then we 0:42:51.920 --> 0:42:55.200 go too for Drew. I am gonna go. I have 0:42:55.239 --> 0:42:57.239 a lot of questions about what I should do here 0:42:57.239 --> 0:42:58.960 with the second one, but I'm just gonna go back 0:42:59.000 --> 0:43:01.440 to the well will. He says, always bet the Steelers 0:43:01.520 --> 0:43:07.000 under I say, always bet the Commanders over the line 0:43:07.280 --> 0:43:10.120 is fifty. I believe with the Commanders. Am I correct? 0:43:10.160 --> 0:43:10.800 Is it fifty? 0:43:12.040 --> 0:43:14.239 It you live fifty? Yep? 0:43:15.239 --> 0:43:17.640 I think we all heard about how the Commanders haven't 0:43:17.640 --> 0:43:20.720 punted in two weeks. They got seven field goals against 0:43:20.760 --> 0:43:23.160 the Giants to go for twenty one to eighteen winner, 0:43:23.400 --> 0:43:26.600 and then they go into Cincinnati a horrible defense again, 0:43:26.920 --> 0:43:29.600 and they don't even punt there either. But by the way, 0:43:29.640 --> 0:43:32.319 they also didn't make the other team punt, so they 0:43:32.360 --> 0:43:36.200 are a gorgeous overteam. This is this Washington team because 0:43:36.239 --> 0:43:39.319 mister Daniels at quarterback is to steal the draft. I 0:43:39.400 --> 0:43:41.840 loved him at LSU. The guy run. Now, is he 0:43:41.880 --> 0:43:43.960 going to stay alive? I don't know, because he takes 0:43:43.960 --> 0:43:46.200 some shots that they're just You're like, is he still alive? 0:43:46.400 --> 0:43:48.080 He looks like he's one hundred and forty five pounds 0:43:48.120 --> 0:43:49.719 compared to these guys. I don't know if he's going 0:43:49.800 --> 0:43:53.160 to stay alive. But however, if he stands upright, he 0:43:53.239 --> 0:43:55.280 is going to score some points for the Washington Commanders. 0:43:55.400 --> 0:44:00.000 The Washington Commanders defense is prendous. It is so bad 0:44:00.680 --> 0:44:03.760 the defense. So they're gonna give up thirty thirty points 0:44:03.760 --> 0:44:06.520 a game. So now you're going to Arizona. Kyler Murray 0:44:06.560 --> 0:44:08.799 is gonna be running around like crazy. Daniels is gonna 0:44:08.800 --> 0:44:11.000 be running around like crazy. It's not like Arizona's defense 0:44:11.080 --> 0:44:12.800 is any good. How are we not going to go 0:44:12.880 --> 0:44:17.640 over fifty? And it's it's disguised because of the fact 0:44:17.680 --> 0:44:19.920 the Giants game only went twenty one to eighteen, and 0:44:19.960 --> 0:44:21.439 that was a game that could have been a thirty 0:44:21.480 --> 0:44:24.279 point score if they went to had seven field goals right, 0:44:24.520 --> 0:44:26.640 And the first game of the week, the Commanders lost 0:44:26.680 --> 0:44:29.160 thirty seven to twenty against Tampa Bay. So I think 0:44:29.160 --> 0:44:31.799 the Commanders are going to be an over machine this year. 0:44:32.200 --> 0:44:36.719 No defense and very good offense spells over. And it's 0:44:36.760 --> 0:44:39.440 not like Arizona isn't an over team too. Give me 0:44:39.560 --> 0:44:42.720 over fifty in the Washington Commanders. 0:44:43.239 --> 0:44:47.160 That all checks out. Man, Jayden, I'm so excited about 0:44:47.200 --> 0:44:49.520 Jayden Daniels as everybody who's a Skins fan is. But 0:44:49.680 --> 0:44:55.160 everybody has the same RG three. You know what's it called? 0:44:55.200 --> 0:45:00.760 The TSD PTSD. Thank you PTSD. Just please stay healthy, 0:45:00.840 --> 0:45:03.000 please for God's sakes. My favorite part of that was, 0:45:03.000 --> 0:45:05.239 well two things. One, he finally found out who Terry 0:45:05.320 --> 0:45:09.640 McLaurin was, which was awesome because Terry McLaurin is just incomparable. 0:45:09.640 --> 0:45:12.279 Have you heard me say that you were? And the 0:45:12.360 --> 0:45:14.279 other thing was after the game. Did you see the 0:45:14.320 --> 0:45:18.400 interview where where Daniels had sort of the presence of 0:45:18.400 --> 0:45:20.600 mind to say because he threw the first touchdown to 0:45:20.640 --> 0:45:22.960 Trent Scott the tackle and he goes, that's going to 0:45:23.040 --> 0:45:26.200 be a great answer to a trivia question years now, 0:45:26.440 --> 0:45:30.480 which I thought was like, oh, I like that. He's like, ah, 0:45:30.560 --> 0:45:32.960 I'm going to be awesome, because I was saying in 0:45:32.960 --> 0:45:35.719 the first couple of weeks, I'm like, he's so comfortable 0:45:36.120 --> 0:45:39.399 that I'm a little worried he's too comfortable. And now 0:45:39.440 --> 0:45:41.200 I can't. You can't even say that anymore. He just 0:45:41.239 --> 0:45:45.239 looks like the game is he's so the stage is 0:45:45.320 --> 0:45:47.880 not too big for him at all. It's been fantastic 0:45:47.920 --> 0:45:50.640 and I love him at ASU too. Todd even before 0:45:50.760 --> 0:45:52.600 LSU loved those latens. 0:45:53.040 --> 0:45:55.560 Where he would you know, her Edwards tried to Herm 0:45:55.719 --> 0:45:58.840 Edwards tried to defend against him. Herm Edwards and his 0:45:59.000 --> 0:46:03.960 nineteen seventies NFL bull crap was trying to to dampen 0:46:04.120 --> 0:46:07.360 Jaden Daniels with the third and five runs to the fullback. 0:46:07.680 --> 0:46:10.720 So he was even better he even though his coach 0:46:10.800 --> 0:46:11.680 was holding him back. 0:46:12.760 --> 0:46:17.640 Yeah, that Terry mccaorn touchdown was top five all players 0:46:17.680 --> 0:46:20.560 this season for sure, and if you're a Commanders fan, 0:46:21.200 --> 0:46:25.600 be sure to check out the the the kind of 0:46:25.680 --> 0:46:30.320 recap of the block that set that up by Jeremy McNichols, 0:46:30.800 --> 0:46:34.360 who was the running back spelling the injured Austin Eckler. 0:46:34.520 --> 0:46:37.600 He takes Jermaine Pratt and just freaking fork lifts him, 0:46:37.880 --> 0:46:41.279 dumps him. It is. It is quite awesome. And you 0:46:41.320 --> 0:46:43.279 can tell he has no idea, like what the what 0:46:43.320 --> 0:46:45.719 the pressure? You know, what is what is responsibilities? He's like, 0:46:45.760 --> 0:46:48.680 They're like, who do I have? Likes? He's like, you know, 0:46:48.760 --> 0:46:51.680 asking Daniels and as they're lined up, it was. It 0:46:51.760 --> 0:46:54.520 was quite cool. So great play U and love the command. 0:46:54.760 --> 0:46:57.040 I just love it. I hope they keep keep giving 0:46:57.120 --> 0:46:59.200 us the show because they're they're very fun to watch. 0:47:00.120 --> 0:47:02.399 The next gen stats I believe it was that said 0:47:02.400 --> 0:47:06.160 it was just over a ten percent success probability on 0:47:06.680 --> 0:47:09.759 that touchdown. Sure because he was about to get blasted. 0:47:09.840 --> 0:47:13.160 And then McLaurin he just know it's like mccluurin was 0:47:13.200 --> 0:47:15.319 at the twenty yard line when he released the ball. 0:47:15.880 --> 0:47:16.520 Unbelievable. 0:47:16.719 --> 0:47:17.960 Yeah, awesome. 0:47:18.320 --> 0:47:20.560 Okay, second play for me. I'm going to go back 0:47:20.560 --> 0:47:22.440 to the NFC South and I'm going to take another dog. 0:47:22.880 --> 0:47:26.160 This time. We're going with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers against 0:47:26.239 --> 0:47:30.640 the injured Philadelphia Eagles. I can get a I don't 0:47:30.680 --> 0:47:32.640 know two one and a half. Two and a half 0:47:32.760 --> 0:47:34.319 doesn't matter to me. I played the money line here 0:47:34.320 --> 0:47:36.880 for the Bucks for record keeping purposes, I want to 0:47:36.880 --> 0:47:43.440 go to so I'll do Bucks plus two. The handicap 0:47:43.480 --> 0:47:45.960 is pretty straightforward. I'm expecting the Bucks offensive line to 0:47:46.000 --> 0:47:49.440 be at full strength here. That matters. I think the 0:47:49.480 --> 0:47:52.480 ability to protect Baker Mayfield brings out the best in 0:47:52.560 --> 0:47:54.400 him in terms of quarterback play, and I think the 0:47:54.440 --> 0:47:57.920 weapons of Godwin and Evans are going to be an 0:47:58.080 --> 0:48:02.000 extremely difficult test for this still figuring it out secondary 0:48:02.000 --> 0:48:04.799 from Philadelphia, So I do think the Buccaneers are going 0:48:04.840 --> 0:48:06.439 to be able to control game. State put a little 0:48:06.440 --> 0:48:08.680 bit of scoreboard pressure on Philadelphia here, and then the 0:48:08.680 --> 0:48:12.960 Philadelphia offense, like it hasn't really been broadly covered, but like, yeah, 0:48:13.120 --> 0:48:15.680 making Philly a favorite on the road of this magnitude 0:48:15.960 --> 0:48:17.799 if they were fully healthy. I'm not going to take 0:48:17.840 --> 0:48:20.200 exception to that. But I do not think there is 0:48:20.239 --> 0:48:23.600 a very strong likelihood at all that DeVante Smith plays. 0:48:23.640 --> 0:48:26.120 I think it is also unlikely that aj Brown is 0:48:26.160 --> 0:48:27.799 ready to go, and I think it is unlikely that 0:48:27.880 --> 0:48:30.200 Lane Johnson is ready to go. If you are keeping track, 0:48:30.239 --> 0:48:34.200 those are probably three of the foremost important Philadelphia Eagles 0:48:34.239 --> 0:48:36.000 on the offensive side of the ball. Maybe they are 0:48:36.000 --> 0:48:39.960 three of their most important players period. And Jalen Hurtz 0:48:40.160 --> 0:48:43.920 had the narrative beating all off season long that he 0:48:43.960 --> 0:48:47.520 did not have the answers in their free fall last year. 0:48:47.560 --> 0:48:49.520 He did not have the answers when he was blitzed, 0:48:49.840 --> 0:48:51.920 and that was no more apparent than when he went 0:48:51.960 --> 0:48:54.239 against Todd Bowles in the playoffs. And Todd Bowles is 0:48:54.239 --> 0:48:57.799 blitzing at an absolutely absurd rate. Still, you combine that 0:48:57.880 --> 0:48:59.960 with now he's going to have to figure out protection 0:49:00.280 --> 0:49:02.960 in the absence of uh, you know, the key key 0:49:03.000 --> 0:49:05.040 blocker and Lane Johnson, and he's gonna have to figure 0:49:05.080 --> 0:49:06.759 out who he's going to with hot reads in the 0:49:06.800 --> 0:49:09.480 absence of his two most important receivers. This to me 0:49:09.560 --> 0:49:11.960 looks like a huge, huge problem for Philadelphia. I think 0:49:11.960 --> 0:49:13.560 the wrong team is favored, and I will take the 0:49:13.600 --> 0:49:16.400 home team Buccaneers. I bet them out right, But I 0:49:16.480 --> 0:49:18.640 like plus two as well, and. 0:49:18.560 --> 0:49:21.160 I think I don't have them at my at my 0:49:21.200 --> 0:49:23.960 disposal right here. Lane Johnson, to your point, I think 0:49:23.960 --> 0:49:26.560 there are stats on him going way back because he's 0:49:26.640 --> 0:49:32.080 oft injured, and there are future statistics when Lane Johnson plays, 0:49:32.160 --> 0:49:37.000 when Lane Johnson doesn't play, how absolutely diametrically opposed. Those 0:49:37.040 --> 0:49:39.279 are like Philly without him is terrible and Philly with 0:49:39.360 --> 0:49:39.879 him is great. 0:49:40.560 --> 0:49:43.160 And also, like you guys brought it up in the 0:49:43.320 --> 0:49:47.600 boneheaded coaching convo, Nick Sirianni, I don't know what in 0:49:47.600 --> 0:49:50.120 the world he's doing, Like it doesn't feel that. I 0:49:50.160 --> 0:49:53.400 know they have a very good analytics department in Philadelphia. 0:49:53.440 --> 0:49:56.080 Those guys must be pulling your hair out. And when 0:49:56.080 --> 0:49:58.920 he because he's just kind of just doing like magic 0:49:58.960 --> 0:50:03.040 gate ball, going forward, kicking the play calls have been terrible, 0:50:03.080 --> 0:50:05.600 Like I really do not understand what is going on 0:50:06.440 --> 0:50:10.040 right now with kind of the decision making. And he's 0:50:10.080 --> 0:50:13.279 he's he's making decisions. You know, he's he's acting like 0:50:13.320 --> 0:50:16.359 a beleaguered coach, which I think he is. And so yeah, 0:50:16.800 --> 0:50:18.719 blackjack player, trying to get it all done. Yeah, there 0:50:18.760 --> 0:50:22.319 you go, crazy, that's exactly great camp. Great camp. And 0:50:22.480 --> 0:50:26.120 uh yeah, I'm not my voto. No confidence is in 0:50:26.160 --> 0:50:26.680 on Syrian. 0:50:28.320 --> 0:50:29.520 All right, what's your final one. 0:50:31.280 --> 0:50:33.040 I'm gonna stick with the dogs. I'm going to take 0:50:33.040 --> 0:50:34.960 the bait. I'm the mouse that's taking the cheese. This 0:50:35.040 --> 0:50:38.480 week Buffalo Bills for me on Sunday and football. This 0:50:38.560 --> 0:50:46.279 team is a truck. I honestly am I know. I'll 0:50:46.320 --> 0:50:49.840 take two. It's like reasonable to me. There's two n 0:50:49.840 --> 0:50:51.880 apps out there, but to two is fine. 0:50:52.600 --> 0:50:54.080 We get to decide what you get. 0:50:54.080 --> 0:50:58.160 Okay, I met the money line. I took the money 0:50:58.160 --> 0:51:00.200 line and all three of these dogs for or. 0:51:00.360 --> 0:51:04.719 For full transperienced Trew doesn't realize he does get to 0:51:04.719 --> 0:51:08.040 be his own uh you know sec here. He thinks 0:51:08.040 --> 0:51:11.959 he's like to happens and bee. No, no, it doesn't 0:51:12.000 --> 0:51:16.640 work like too Okay, so he's getting the Bills plus two. Okay. 0:51:18.080 --> 0:51:22.000 In in the preseason when this line was also expected 0:51:22.040 --> 0:51:24.360 to be in this range, I would not have taken exception. 0:51:25.040 --> 0:51:27.719 I would have said, yes, this Ravens team is unbelievable 0:51:27.719 --> 0:51:29.560 at stopping the run, and the Bills seem to want 0:51:29.600 --> 0:51:31.560 to be a running team without really any proof of 0:51:31.600 --> 0:51:33.399 concept that they have weapons in the passing game who 0:51:33.440 --> 0:51:36.160 can do anything. And yeah, this is a nice matchup 0:51:36.160 --> 0:51:38.520 for a Ravens defense to uh, you know, to keep 0:51:38.520 --> 0:51:42.320 the game in check and Bill's defense missing Milano questions 0:51:42.320 --> 0:51:45.000 about the secondary. Are they going to have a pass rush? 0:51:45.040 --> 0:51:47.200 All of this, you know, really spells trouble I think 0:51:47.239 --> 0:51:48.759 for the Bills in this spot. So I'm fine with 0:51:48.800 --> 0:51:51.600 the Ravens being favorite now. I think with the information 0:51:51.640 --> 0:51:53.560 we have through three weeks, you have to acknowledge the 0:51:53.600 --> 0:51:55.759 fact that Josh Allen is playing the best quarterback in 0:51:55.800 --> 0:51:58.040 the NFL by margin. I think you have to acknowledge 0:51:58.040 --> 0:52:00.719 the fact that the Buffalo Bills offensive line is elite, 0:52:00.800 --> 0:52:02.600 and I think you have to acknowledge the fact that 0:52:02.880 --> 0:52:06.880 the Ravens defense is missing a one Mike McDonald in 0:52:06.960 --> 0:52:09.640 terms of kind of being as conceptually sound, particularly in 0:52:09.719 --> 0:52:12.520 past defense, as they were last year. They're still amazing 0:52:12.520 --> 0:52:14.200 and stopping the run, but this is a team that 0:52:14.320 --> 0:52:16.959 can be beat through the air, and I do think 0:52:17.000 --> 0:52:20.799 that the Buffalo Bills offense can continue their success, and 0:52:21.040 --> 0:52:23.600 it all kind of comes down to Josh Allen continue 0:52:23.640 --> 0:52:26.600 to avoid making the key mistake. In my opinion, anyone 0:52:26.600 --> 0:52:29.879 who is betting the Ravens is basically expecting that this 0:52:29.960 --> 0:52:31.400 is the game There's going to be some sort of 0:52:31.400 --> 0:52:34.560 regression for Allen and turnovers, and I got to tell you, 0:52:34.640 --> 0:52:36.520 I've seen enough like he looks like he is a 0:52:36.600 --> 0:52:38.319 much more mature player than the guy that was out 0:52:38.320 --> 0:52:40.480 there the last handful of years. He still has the 0:52:40.520 --> 0:52:43.200 elite skill set that it makes him a top two 0:52:43.239 --> 0:52:46.480 player in the NFL period, and I think riding him 0:52:46.480 --> 0:52:49.840 while he's on this heater is the obvious correct decision. 0:52:50.200 --> 0:52:52.840 And then when you flip the coin and you tell me, 0:52:52.880 --> 0:52:55.040 how are the Ravens going to deal with the negative 0:52:55.040 --> 0:52:58.439 game stated for the Manifests, This passing pass catching unit 0:52:58.480 --> 0:53:01.719 for the Ravens stinks, and they really have no one 0:53:01.719 --> 0:53:04.640 that can generate significant separation. And now they're going up 0:53:04.680 --> 0:53:08.439 against the secondary that has you know, absolute elite cover 0:53:08.560 --> 0:53:10.879 corner so far out of Christian Benford. If you haven't 0:53:10.920 --> 0:53:12.680 heard that name already, go look at some of the 0:53:12.680 --> 0:53:14.640 advanced sets of the stats about what he's doing in 0:53:14.680 --> 0:53:18.200 terms of preventing separation and his on ball you know, 0:53:18.280 --> 0:53:21.920 his his ability to break up passes. He is playing 0:53:22.239 --> 0:53:25.759 at a probe CB one, Pro Bowl level to this 0:53:25.840 --> 0:53:27.600 point in the season and really going back to the 0:53:27.640 --> 0:53:30.879 end of last season. So I don't know that that 0:53:30.920 --> 0:53:34.240 can be dismissed. And I think Douglas is equally equally 0:53:34.960 --> 0:53:37.759 good and at shutting down wide receiver two or the 0:53:37.800 --> 0:53:40.560 tight end and safeties are playing well. Pass rush is 0:53:40.600 --> 0:53:44.680 excellent against Baltimore O line that has huge question marks 0:53:44.680 --> 0:53:47.880 for me. So I think Buffalo better in both trenches, 0:53:48.160 --> 0:53:53.839 better quarterback, and just in general. You know, the team 0:53:53.880 --> 0:53:55.880 that ought to be small favorite here. So give me 0:53:55.880 --> 0:53:56.360 a plus. 0:53:56.239 --> 0:54:01.280 Two, Toddy, now here was the thing. I was gonna 0:54:01.320 --> 0:54:06.239 take the Ravens against Drew's Bills plus two. You know what, 0:54:06.480 --> 0:54:07.560 So screwed. 0:54:09.080 --> 0:54:09.279 Guy. 0:54:10.840 --> 0:54:14.719 I don't mind going up against this week. 0:54:14.719 --> 0:54:19.000 I acknowledge it comes in all relaxed at the long hair. 0:54:19.080 --> 0:54:22.120 He's probably got like a harem of ladies just outside 0:54:22.120 --> 0:54:26.719 the camera shot and a tremendous calming background in the back. 0:54:26.840 --> 0:54:29.320 I mean, this guy just looks like he's living the life. 0:54:29.880 --> 0:54:32.040 We're gonna have to go against him, that's all, Gilly, 0:54:32.080 --> 0:54:35.640 I'm going against him. Call me crazy. I'm gonna take 0:54:35.960 --> 0:54:42.080 the Baltimore Ravens at minus two. Okay. Now here's by 0:54:42.080 --> 0:54:44.200 the way, I agree with everything that Drew said. The 0:54:44.239 --> 0:54:47.520 Bills have been playing out of their minds. Okay, the 0:54:47.600 --> 0:54:50.520 Bills are playing outstanding football. By the way, that Monday 0:54:50.560 --> 0:54:53.000 night football game, it wasn't even a game. After like 0:54:53.040 --> 0:54:56.520 two seconds, you could tell the game was over and 0:54:56.520 --> 0:54:59.680 and so, I mean, Buffalo has been unbelievable and they 0:54:59.760 --> 0:55:03.279 cry Miami. Now the game before that against Arizona, they 0:55:03.280 --> 0:55:05.560 were a little suspect on the defensive side of the ball. 0:55:05.840 --> 0:55:11.759 But you know, overall, the Bills really look good. However, however, 0:55:12.120 --> 0:55:14.839 it's the National Football League. I've been betting on these 0:55:14.880 --> 0:55:18.239 games for too long to know that when a team 0:55:18.280 --> 0:55:20.200 beats a team thirty one to ten, like they did 0:55:20.200 --> 0:55:22.640 against Miami, then they come out the next week and 0:55:22.719 --> 0:55:27.160 beat Jacksonville eight hundred to nothing like they did. Can 0:55:27.200 --> 0:55:29.840 they cover the spread three weeks in a row like 0:55:29.880 --> 0:55:32.959 that against a team that's a very good team. Now, 0:55:33.000 --> 0:55:36.760 on top of that, Baltimore's giving points. Right, So now 0:55:36.880 --> 0:55:39.640 everybody and their brothers going, wait, I get the Bills, 0:55:39.680 --> 0:55:42.800 the best team almost in football, and I get points. 0:55:43.560 --> 0:55:47.800 That to me sounds like trouble city in the National 0:55:47.800 --> 0:55:51.080 Football League. You got to go against Harbaugh? Is it home? 0:55:51.400 --> 0:55:53.800 They blew the game against the Raiders that they should 0:55:53.800 --> 0:55:56.880 have easily won by a thousand. Right now, you're asking 0:55:57.000 --> 0:56:00.920 Harbaugh to do a little Harbaugh potion. You know Harbaugh 0:56:00.920 --> 0:56:03.680 and these big games, he cooks up some potions. I 0:56:03.680 --> 0:56:06.799 think he's gonna cook up some defensive potions for this 0:56:07.080 --> 0:56:10.719 Bills squad somehow slow them down. And it's not like 0:56:10.760 --> 0:56:12.680 the Ravens aren't good. They just went into Big d 0:56:13.239 --> 0:56:18.360 and just crush Dallas, absolutely crush their hopes, all their hopes, 0:56:18.440 --> 0:56:22.920 all their dreams down, all their hopes down right, So 0:56:23.000 --> 0:56:25.640 the Ravens, to me, that was a little rounds for 0:56:26.560 --> 0:56:30.320 all your hopes down, all your dreams, dout your faith 0:56:30.640 --> 0:56:34.400 sitting over there. Anyways, The point is, I just like 0:56:34.480 --> 0:56:37.600 the spot. I love the spot here Baltimore. If they're 0:56:37.600 --> 0:56:39.840 gonna if they're gonna win one of these big games, 0:56:40.120 --> 0:56:42.600 this is the one. You gotta think. The Bills come 0:56:42.600 --> 0:56:46.399 in a little fat and happy. I like Baltimore minus too. 0:56:46.440 --> 0:56:48.480 If we get the turnovers, we're gonna win the game. 0:56:48.719 --> 0:56:49.839 Baltimore minus two. 0:56:50.520 --> 0:56:52.000 I'll just jump in Will because I know you have 0:56:52.040 --> 0:56:53.960 one more. But I also I hate to have two 0:56:53.960 --> 0:56:56.759 that are exactly like Todd. I feel like the fledgling 0:56:56.840 --> 0:56:59.960 radio station that's trying to get better ratings against the 0:57:00.040 --> 0:57:02.920 big glast, so I just play the same songs. But 0:57:03.200 --> 0:57:06.520 for me, the number three pick was between the Broncos 0:57:06.600 --> 0:57:10.279 catching seven and a half and taking Baltimore minus two, 0:57:10.719 --> 0:57:14.720 and ultimately I can't the bow Nicks versus that Jets 0:57:14.760 --> 0:57:17.920 defense scenario where they just get blasted. I couldn't do it, 0:57:17.960 --> 0:57:19.480 even though I think seven and a half is probably too. 0:57:19.960 --> 0:57:22.480 It's Baltimore, and for me, it's just about having not 0:57:22.720 --> 0:57:27.000 shedding my priors from before the season, right. I just 0:57:27.040 --> 0:57:30.320 think Baltimore is the better football team and as good 0:57:30.320 --> 0:57:32.360 as Buffalo has been. And I agree with everything Drew 0:57:32.400 --> 0:57:35.280 is saying, there's nothing you said that was wrong. They 0:57:35.400 --> 0:57:38.040 have to be able to come up with something that 0:57:38.280 --> 0:57:40.880 stops these Josh Allen, Oh, you know what, I'm just 0:57:40.880 --> 0:57:42.360 gonna run the ball up the middle now on a 0:57:42.400 --> 0:57:44.800 designed run like. There has to be some kind of 0:57:44.800 --> 0:57:48.440 countermeasure to this, and I do think that Baltimore will 0:57:48.440 --> 0:57:49.880 be able to come up with it. I agree with 0:57:49.880 --> 0:57:52.800 the Mike McDonald's stuff. They're clearly not as good on 0:57:53.160 --> 0:57:57.000 defense without him bringing blitzes from every which way where 0:57:57.000 --> 0:58:00.360 the quarterback can't figure it out. And Josh Allen, every 0:58:00.360 --> 0:58:04.040 which way you slice it up, uh total QBR passer 0:58:04.120 --> 0:58:07.120 rating EPA per play, he's number one with a bullet 0:58:07.120 --> 0:58:09.880 and all this, and yet I think the Baltimore Ravens 0:58:10.160 --> 0:58:12.160 are a good football team and that they will not 0:58:12.280 --> 0:58:14.040 fall to one in three and they will win this 0:58:14.080 --> 0:58:17.800 football game. I'm taking Baltimore minus two as well, Willy. 0:58:18.960 --> 0:58:22.400 I guess can tell you guess if if the Rave, 0:58:22.520 --> 0:58:27.040 if the if the Buffalo Bills truck continues, they have 0:58:27.160 --> 0:58:31.080 three games in a row on the road, Ravens, Texans, Jets. 0:58:31.120 --> 0:58:37.920 This is a nightmare stretch. I would say that the 0:58:37.960 --> 0:58:41.440 one of the aspects of overperforming that you can usually capitalize, 0:58:41.480 --> 0:58:43.360 like you guys are kind of making out, is when 0:58:43.360 --> 0:58:47.520 the market overreacts and it's not yet right, like a 0:58:47.560 --> 0:58:50.439 win on Sunday Night Football, a third straight cover that's 0:58:50.480 --> 0:58:52.400 going to cause a flip to where the Texans game. 0:58:52.400 --> 0:58:54.480 Maybe they're favored on the road against the Texans, like 0:58:55.080 --> 0:58:57.680 I think, you you know, don't don't lose hope, and 0:58:57.760 --> 0:59:00.000 don't don't be on the wrong side of this next 0:59:00.080 --> 0:59:02.320 to it if if the Bills take care of business, 0:59:02.360 --> 0:59:05.640 because yeah, there's you know, there are opportunities coming up. 0:59:05.680 --> 0:59:07.640 I think to fade these guys, but I just not 0:59:07.680 --> 0:59:10.560 seen it with this particular Ravens team. So we'll see. 0:59:11.280 --> 0:59:17.760 We have Shmack talking possibilities comes Sunday Monday. All right, Will, 0:59:17.760 --> 0:59:20.120 what's the last one? Because my juice is running out. 0:59:20.480 --> 0:59:22.720 Okay, do we have a Can I get a forty 0:59:22.720 --> 0:59:24.600 three in Tampa Philly? Since you're running out of time, 0:59:24.840 --> 0:59:25.160 you can. 0:59:25.120 --> 0:59:28.240 Just say yes, forty three in Tampa Philly. 0:59:28.760 --> 0:59:30.120 No, it's like that's widely available. 0:59:31.160 --> 0:59:35.520 Yepes. Actually, I'm like you guys, yeah, I'm like you 0:59:35.560 --> 0:59:38.600 guys actually respect Drew's handicapping acumens. So I'm gonna kind 0:59:38.600 --> 0:59:42.080 of borrow from what he's thinking. I just I don't 0:59:42.120 --> 0:59:44.440 like this Philly offense in this spot. Tampa plays at 0:59:44.480 --> 0:59:46.120 a very slow pace. They're at the bottom of the 0:59:46.160 --> 0:59:50.520 league in terms of plays per game. Bowls, as Drew mentioned, 0:59:50.560 --> 0:59:52.040 did a great job against Herts last year in the 0:59:52.040 --> 0:59:54.240 playoff game, held him to nine points. And if you're 0:59:54.240 --> 0:59:57.400 a Philly with no Brown, no Smith, maybe Becton's wearing 0:59:57.520 --> 1:00:01.160 a thing on his finger with a dislocated finger, Lane Johnson. 1:00:01.200 --> 1:00:02.920 All of those reasons to me, this is just more 1:00:02.920 --> 1:00:05.320 of a grinded out game. So I'm gonna play another 1:00:05.400 --> 1:00:07.560 under here. I'll go under forty three. And I don't 1:00:07.560 --> 1:00:08.800 know how you guys feel. I just I don't have 1:00:08.840 --> 1:00:11.080 a great feel for these teams in terms of the 1:00:11.120 --> 1:00:13.120 size of like who to back, who not to I 1:00:13.200 --> 1:00:14.800 just have a hard time getting a sense for any 1:00:14.800 --> 1:00:16.600 of these teams. So hopefully I'll have a better luck 1:00:16.680 --> 1:00:18.840 here with an under well. 1:00:18.880 --> 1:00:20.880 I was saying last week, I was like, I never 1:00:21.000 --> 1:00:24.000 do totals on the megapod, right, never, And the fact 1:00:24.040 --> 1:00:25.640 that I'm doing one a week and now all of 1:00:25.680 --> 1:00:28.440 a sudden is it says exactly what you're saying, will Like, 1:00:28.480 --> 1:00:30.760 I just none of these sides, Like, there's not enough 1:00:30.760 --> 1:00:34.320 of these that I love to play for sure. Teaser 1:00:34.360 --> 1:00:37.720 of the week drew two legs six point teaser. 1:00:37.840 --> 1:00:39.760 Your fake Yeah give me, yeah, give me, give me 1:00:39.800 --> 1:00:43.280 two teams at home in the Wong zone. I'm gonna 1:00:43.320 --> 1:00:45.040 tease the Jet from seven and a half to one 1:00:45.040 --> 1:00:47.479 and a half, and I'm gonna tease the Colts from 1:00:47.520 --> 1:00:50.280 one and a half to seven and a half. I 1:00:50.320 --> 1:00:53.800 think the Colts Steelers game is going to be competitive. 1:00:53.960 --> 1:00:59.840 I think the Steelers just in general, still have the 1:01:00.120 --> 1:01:02.800 lot to prove in terms of being able to run 1:01:02.800 --> 1:01:05.520 an offense, particularly with both running backs being injured now. 1:01:06.440 --> 1:01:09.520 And I think that's a game that's decided by a 1:01:09.520 --> 1:01:12.000 field goal either way, So happy to put me on 1:01:12.040 --> 1:01:15.720 the other side of seven and the Jets. This is 1:01:15.880 --> 1:01:18.560 it's kind of weird. The Broncos defense is being a 1:01:18.600 --> 1:01:21.560 little bit celebrated for their early season performance, but I 1:01:21.560 --> 1:01:24.920 think the absence of Alex Singleton is going to be 1:01:25.560 --> 1:01:29.439 significantly felt here. He was their only good linebacker. And 1:01:29.920 --> 1:01:32.560 I think the Jets might not punt in this contest. 1:01:32.600 --> 1:01:38.400 So give me Jets Colts as home teams. Low totals, 1:01:38.560 --> 1:01:39.160 long zone. 1:01:40.680 --> 1:01:49.000 Speaking of EPA per play, Anthony richardson thirty second below, Bryce. 1:01:48.760 --> 1:01:55.480 Young, this is a huge long week. By the way, it. 1:01:55.520 --> 1:01:58.040 Is a huge longer. You are right about that. 1:01:58.840 --> 1:02:01.640 There's like ten Yeah, there's like six choices here. 1:02:03.120 --> 1:02:05.040 Yeah, I'll keep it prettyf I'll go Bucks and I'll 1:02:05.080 --> 1:02:06.880 go Colts for a lot of the reasons Drew mentioned. 1:02:06.920 --> 1:02:08.120 I think they should be closer games. 1:02:08.120 --> 1:02:11.080 Steelersn't blow anybody out, So Bucks Colts. By the way, 1:02:11.080 --> 1:02:12.920 your Tigers have cut it to three two for anyone 1:02:13.120 --> 1:02:15.440 looking for baseball updates from hours ago or days ago. 1:02:15.440 --> 1:02:16.479 By the time he listened to this. 1:02:18.080 --> 1:02:20.360 I have the Tigers to make it plus four fifty. 1:02:20.360 --> 1:02:23.200 I have the Braves to lose at uh you have 1:02:23.240 --> 1:02:24.800 the Braves lose at fifteen to one. I have it 1:02:24.840 --> 1:02:28.040 at plus seven to fifty. Todd, you're on the Braves 1:02:28.040 --> 1:02:32.560 too to miss the playoffs. Also, yes, all right, what's 1:02:32.560 --> 1:02:33.400 your teaser, Toddy? 1:02:34.560 --> 1:02:36.760 My teaser is going to be the Jets minus one 1:02:36.760 --> 1:02:39.360 and a half. We've talked enough about why we don't 1:02:39.360 --> 1:02:41.960 think the Jets are losing this game. I believe you know, 1:02:42.080 --> 1:02:45.760 come on, Bonux, seriously, Jets minus. Although he did have 1:02:45.800 --> 1:02:48.440 one of the greatest scrambles in NFL history last week. 1:02:48.440 --> 1:02:50.320 Did he's got one scramble where he got out of 1:02:50.400 --> 1:02:52.960 like four ice backing him bad Jet? 1:02:54.200 --> 1:02:54.280 Ye? 1:02:54.360 --> 1:02:56.360 Yeah, it looked okay. But I don't think he's not 1:02:56.400 --> 1:02:58.840 going to beat the Jets. Jets minus the one and 1:02:58.840 --> 1:03:01.760 a half and give me the Bucks plus the eight. 1:03:02.440 --> 1:03:05.000 I believe the Bucks can keep it close here with all. 1:03:05.040 --> 1:03:07.440 The only thing I want to say about the Eagles 1:03:07.480 --> 1:03:09.520 is it sure seems to me when I watch the 1:03:09.600 --> 1:03:12.400 game the Jalen Hurts goes back to pass and hats 1:03:12.440 --> 1:03:15.040 the ball for about one hundred years a lot of 1:03:15.080 --> 1:03:17.080 the plays, and then he just runs out to the 1:03:17.160 --> 1:03:19.479 right and he throws it away or tries to run 1:03:19.480 --> 1:03:22.320 for it. I don't think that downfield passing game looks 1:03:22.400 --> 1:03:24.160 very good for the Eagles. And now you've got all 1:03:24.200 --> 1:03:26.960 those wide receivers out. Give me the Bucks plus the eight. 1:03:28.000 --> 1:03:30.320 I'm taking the Jets like so many here, and I 1:03:30.360 --> 1:03:33.840 am going to take the Saints longing wonging them through 1:03:33.840 --> 1:03:36.320 the three and the seven, because I don't see the 1:03:36.320 --> 1:03:41.680 Falcons blowing them in any scenario. So Saints Jets for 1:03:42.160 --> 1:03:45.400 Young Gil. Final two questions of each and every megapod, 1:03:46.360 --> 1:03:49.120 first one, Which of the big favorites is the most 1:03:49.160 --> 1:03:53.520 likely to lose? Outright? Not that many choices this week? 1:03:55.040 --> 1:03:57.000 The Jets seven and a half point favorites at home 1:03:57.040 --> 1:04:00.439 against the Broncos, the Niners ten and a half point 1:04:00.760 --> 1:04:04.960 favorites at home against the Patriots, Chiefs seven point favorites 1:04:05.000 --> 1:04:09.080 on the road against the Charge. We were limited to 1:04:09.440 --> 1:04:13.440 limited to those three which drew. If one of them loses, 1:04:13.560 --> 1:04:14.400 who's it gonna be? 1:04:15.960 --> 1:04:24.000 Oh man? I just wanted to note that it's fascinating 1:04:24.040 --> 1:04:26.280 that the big money today came in on the Jaguars. 1:04:26.320 --> 1:04:28.680 Moved that off of six and a half bounce down 1:04:28.720 --> 1:04:31.160 to five and a half across six is a big move. 1:04:32.320 --> 1:04:36.000 I'm going to say that the Chiefs are the most 1:04:36.080 --> 1:04:38.680 likely to lose. And this seems insane to say out loud, 1:04:39.440 --> 1:04:43.520 but I just I think it's gone a little bit 1:04:43.560 --> 1:04:46.240 missed in the three games that they've know, the three 1:04:46.240 --> 1:04:51.360 wins so far, that every single high leverage opportunity for 1:04:51.400 --> 1:04:54.479 this offense to put away games they have failed every 1:04:54.520 --> 1:04:58.000 single one. They're getting out to leads, they're playing with leads, 1:04:58.160 --> 1:05:00.960 but they're not doing sort of the classic you know, 1:05:01.160 --> 1:05:04.040 Andy Reid Mahomes put the game away with, you know, 1:05:04.080 --> 1:05:06.720 the drive that sucks five minutes off the clock at 1:05:06.720 --> 1:05:08.800 the end of the fourth quarter to you know, make it, 1:05:09.080 --> 1:05:11.640 make it, make it a clean win. They've been a 1:05:11.680 --> 1:05:13.800 little lucky, and I think it sounds like Herbert is 1:05:13.800 --> 1:05:16.200 going to try to push through this. I know that 1:05:16.240 --> 1:05:22.080 everybody else is hurt here for the Chargers, but yeah, 1:05:22.120 --> 1:05:24.800 this is uh, this is again probably gonna you know, 1:05:24.880 --> 1:05:26.560 I think this is going to be a competitive game, 1:05:26.600 --> 1:05:29.280 and I think of the big favorites, I would be 1:05:29.360 --> 1:05:31.800 the most concerned about the the Chiefs, just based on 1:05:32.680 --> 1:05:35.480 a little bit of inflation in terms of how people 1:05:35.520 --> 1:05:36.880 are rating them. 1:05:37.080 --> 1:05:39.360 Yeah, because the Niners, as banged up as they are, 1:05:39.360 --> 1:05:41.320 they really going to lose to the Patriots, and are 1:05:41.360 --> 1:05:44.600 the Jets that defense really going to lose to Bonnix? 1:05:46.360 --> 1:05:50.320 Is it is the chief the chief for everybody? Well, 1:05:50.360 --> 1:05:54.240 i'm gonna say Chiefs. I'll say chiefs. 1:05:55.320 --> 1:05:55.520 Yees. 1:05:55.640 --> 1:05:58.000 I would actually I'd be surprised if Herbert played. I 1:05:58.040 --> 1:06:00.800 haven't read the latest, but they have a by next week. 1:06:00.840 --> 1:06:03.800 They're beat up on the offensive line, though. Does the 1:06:03.840 --> 1:06:05.880 market think Herbert's playing? Because this line, even with. 1:06:06.360 --> 1:06:10.120 Herbert, Herbert calls. Herbert has called his own number so 1:06:10.200 --> 1:06:14.000 many times to this career that it's crazy. Yeah, like 1:06:14.240 --> 1:06:16.400 how you you know, you know this sort of stuff, 1:06:16.440 --> 1:06:18.600 the kloak and dagger stuff where it's like literally like no, 1:06:18.640 --> 1:06:20.959 he can't you can't play, you can't play, he won't play. 1:06:20.960 --> 1:06:23.920 He's not going, Oh surprise, I'm going, you know, like 1:06:24.120 --> 1:06:28.000 he he is. I don't know that it's smart. It's 1:06:28.000 --> 1:06:31.240 never rational, but it sounds like he's going to push 1:06:31.320 --> 1:06:32.000 himself out there. 1:06:32.920 --> 1:06:37.440 Wore by the way, can yes he did, because we're 1:06:37.480 --> 1:06:40.800 almost done the Chiefs did. I just want to say 1:06:40.840 --> 1:06:43.280 one thing about the Chiefs. I think that Andy Reid 1:06:43.320 --> 1:06:46.400 has made the Chiefs running game. Dinker ball passes to 1:06:46.520 --> 1:06:49.560 Rice What I mean by dinker ball passes is like 1:06:49.840 --> 1:06:53.080 Mahomes goes back two steps, flips it to Rice and 1:06:53.120 --> 1:06:55.120 it's like either behind the line of scrimmage or just 1:06:55.160 --> 1:06:57.360 pass the line of scrimmage and Rice goes for like 1:06:57.400 --> 1:06:59.600 six or seven yards instead of just handing the ball 1:06:59.840 --> 1:07:02.439 to whoever they have back there, Steel or whoever now 1:07:02.680 --> 1:07:06.960 is running. Yeah, they missed. My point is if you 1:07:07.040 --> 1:07:08.880 see that early in the game where Rice is getting 1:07:08.920 --> 1:07:13.240 targeted almost every play play, Rice over catches because it's 1:07:13.360 --> 1:07:15.400 I don't think they can make the number high. You see, 1:07:16.400 --> 1:07:17.120 what'd you say. 1:07:17.000 --> 1:07:19.320 He's the whole You feel like he's the whole offense, 1:07:19.320 --> 1:07:21.640 Like Travis Kelsey looks like he lost a step and 1:07:21.640 --> 1:07:23.880 a half. 1:07:24.120 --> 1:07:28.200 He's had dating issues. He's had dating issues, and that's 1:07:28.240 --> 1:07:30.200 the thing. But I just think, like I said to 1:07:30.240 --> 1:07:33.200 you at halftime, Rice, I believe had like six or 1:07:33.240 --> 1:07:35.240 seven catches at halftime, and they made it like ten 1:07:35.280 --> 1:07:37.400 and a half and it still wasn't high enough because 1:07:37.440 --> 1:07:39.760 they just every time they need four or five yards, 1:07:39.760 --> 1:07:41.840 they just flip it to Rice. You know. But anyways, 1:07:41.840 --> 1:07:44.240 I think Chiefs to lose just because it's harrorball. Maybe 1:07:44.280 --> 1:07:45.880 hardball will cook something. 1:07:45.680 --> 1:07:48.640 Up all right, final question, Drew, we live in a 1:07:48.680 --> 1:07:51.520 bizarre world. You pick a side or you bet a 1:07:51.600 --> 1:07:54.040 side in every single game, but you get one free pass. 1:07:54.080 --> 1:07:54.760 What game do you want? 1:07:54.800 --> 1:07:57.640 No part of the easiest question of the day, Gil, 1:07:57.840 --> 1:07:59.240 It's the Browns, Raiders. 1:08:00.040 --> 1:08:04.240 Rounds, Raiders. Need you even explain that? Yeah? 1:08:04.360 --> 1:08:07.720 I just how do you radio of these teams right now? 1:08:08.640 --> 1:08:12.040 Yeah? Do we know who there's starting a quarterback for 1:08:12.080 --> 1:08:13.120 the Raiders. Doesn't matter. 1:08:14.600 --> 1:08:18.639 I'm guessing it's going to be Gardner Minshew, probably doesn't matter. 1:08:20.240 --> 1:08:25.080 Everybody on the Browns is hurt. Yeah, your two most 1:08:25.120 --> 1:08:28.000 important players in this game are Garrett and Crosby. They're 1:08:28.040 --> 1:08:30.760 both missing time. They both know I no read on 1:08:30.840 --> 1:08:33.479 either if either guy goes or if either guy goes, 1:08:33.520 --> 1:08:37.040 if they're effective. Deshaun Watson might be the bortsch quarterback 1:08:37.040 --> 1:08:42.120 playing right now now that Bryce Young's out of the mix. Yeah, 1:08:42.320 --> 1:08:44.880 I have I you could. You could come from the 1:08:44.880 --> 1:08:46.760 future and tell me that anything happened in this game, 1:08:46.760 --> 1:08:48.679 and I'm just going to shrug and say, yeah, okay, sure. 1:08:49.120 --> 1:08:54.000 Thirty seven three Browns, all right? Uh, twenty five twenty 1:08:54.000 --> 1:08:57.040 five to two Raiders one. Oh wow, that's a weird score. Yeah, 1:08:57.360 --> 1:08:58.840 I would believe anything. 1:09:00.600 --> 1:09:04.439 That comment about Watson being the worst now that Bryce 1:09:04.479 --> 1:09:06.840 Young is out. That's pretty strong. That's pretty strong. 1:09:06.920 --> 1:09:10.920 Take more sure, what would you take? I would take 1:09:11.000 --> 1:09:14.400 Lawrence over Watson in a heartbeat right now, in a heartbeat. 1:09:15.520 --> 1:09:18.280 The thing is there's nobody blalking Drew. The other thing 1:09:18.320 --> 1:09:20.280 is he doesn't get any blocking. If you watch that 1:09:20.360 --> 1:09:23.760 Giants game carefully, he doesn't even get a minute. 1:09:24.920 --> 1:09:27.200 It looks like whatever happened to his shoulder is still 1:09:27.400 --> 1:09:30.720 impacting his ability to make down till pass this he 1:09:30.800 --> 1:09:34.200 only has like four frows past ten yards in his 1:09:34.320 --> 1:09:36.680 arm at any given week. He put has to put his 1:09:36.720 --> 1:09:38.720 whole body into it, which means he needs to have 1:09:38.760 --> 1:09:42.280 a perfectly clean pocket to do it. And his mechanics. 1:09:42.320 --> 1:09:44.080 If you just watch what's going on with his feet 1:09:44.120 --> 1:09:46.800 as he's trying to hit his intermediate stuff, it's just 1:09:46.840 --> 1:09:50.519 an absolute shit show. Like he is just he's just 1:09:50.720 --> 1:09:54.320 fundamentally broken. It looks like and I don't Yeah, you're 1:09:54.360 --> 1:09:55.200 not winning with that guy. 1:09:56.240 --> 1:09:59.800 It's very reminiscent of RG three after the injuries. It's 1:09:59.840 --> 1:10:02.400 like the sort of like not spoken part about RG three, 1:10:02.479 --> 1:10:04.360 like yeah, he got hurt in his career got ruined, 1:10:04.640 --> 1:10:07.120 but his mechanics after he was out for a long 1:10:07.160 --> 1:10:08.759 time just went out the window. 1:10:09.360 --> 1:10:11.840 And he hasn't gotten any mastage. He has had a 1:10:11.880 --> 1:10:14.240 massage in three years. Give the guy a break. 1:10:15.400 --> 1:10:17.880 There were some funny tweets about Browns fans trying to 1:10:17.920 --> 1:10:20.040 connect Watson too all the Diddy stuff and saying he 1:10:20.080 --> 1:10:21.240 was at the parties to trying to get. 1:10:21.240 --> 1:10:24.320 Yes, yes, please please, Feds figure out a way to 1:10:24.320 --> 1:10:28.720 connect this to Ditty so we can get rid of him. Yeah. Oh, gallows, 1:10:29.160 --> 1:10:33.360 Gallows humor, everybody, I'm with you. I'm gonna take the Browns. 1:10:33.400 --> 1:10:35.360 I'm gonna take the Browns and the Raiders as well. 1:10:35.400 --> 1:10:36.760 I think that of all again, I mean there's a 1:10:36.800 --> 1:10:39.519 lot I could say, but that, more than anything, I 1:10:39.520 --> 1:10:41.120 think would be the one I wouldn't runny part of it. 1:10:41.439 --> 1:10:45.479 Will Saints Falcons. No, you know what, I'm not cutting 1:10:45.479 --> 1:10:48.360 in line to back the uh back anyone in this 1:10:48.439 --> 1:10:51.439 Titans Dolphins Monday Night bonanza. I bet enough Will Levis 1:10:51.479 --> 1:10:54.360 to laugh the lifetime. It's a Tyler Hontley from Miami. 1:10:54.520 --> 1:10:55.240 No, thank you there. 1:10:56.439 --> 1:10:59.120 It is a bonanza the first of two on Monday 1:10:59.200 --> 1:11:00.920 night is not the first? Is that the nightcap? That's 1:11:00.920 --> 1:11:01.280 a first? 1:11:01.360 --> 1:11:01.519 Right? 1:11:01.960 --> 1:11:04.000 Play him like the same time, which pisses me off? 1:11:05.000 --> 1:11:05.800 How quick? 1:11:05.920 --> 1:11:06.320 How like? 1:11:06.360 --> 1:11:08.880 How much longer for the Titans before they say, okay, 1:11:08.880 --> 1:11:10.519 that's enough, Little Levis, we've seen. 1:11:10.320 --> 1:11:12.120 I don't know why it's not now. I don't you 1:11:12.120 --> 1:11:14.080 see what Dalton did for the Panthers. Just put like 1:11:14.120 --> 1:11:16.120 Rudolph was decent for Pittsburgh last year. Why don't just 1:11:16.160 --> 1:11:17.160 go Rudolph. 1:11:17.960 --> 1:11:20.840 Ill advised Billy Levi's todd, what's yours? 1:11:20.840 --> 1:11:21.040 You want? 1:11:21.760 --> 1:11:23.800 For me? It's the Bears and the Rams. I can't 1:11:23.800 --> 1:11:26.920 believe now. Granted, the Bears defense is supposedly this, Oh 1:11:27.360 --> 1:11:29.880 we're so good according to the statistics. You know, the 1:11:29.880 --> 1:11:33.600 Bears or great guard. You're giving three points. You have 1:11:33.720 --> 1:11:38.200 a very very big mismatchup. Coach. I believe Sean McVeigh. 1:11:38.200 --> 1:11:40.639 I'll take him over the other coach. And you're telling 1:11:40.720 --> 1:11:42.720 me the Bears a team that can't even block for 1:11:42.760 --> 1:11:44.880 their number one pick, who can't even throw when he's 1:11:44.920 --> 1:11:47.920 running around like a lunatic, and he's laying three points 1:11:48.000 --> 1:11:50.439 to the Rams with Stafford. But of course I don't 1:11:50.479 --> 1:11:53.160 want Stafford either, because everybody's injured on their team, so 1:11:53.479 --> 1:11:55.120 you know I don't want any part of that one. 1:11:56.160 --> 1:11:58.800 That was the line. I was the furthest off of 1:11:58.880 --> 1:12:02.639 the farthest off on lines. I actually thought the Rams 1:12:02.680 --> 1:12:04.479 would be favored by a tick. And even if I 1:12:04.520 --> 1:12:07.320 was wrong about that, how the Bears are full three 1:12:07.360 --> 1:12:11.040 point favorites. I will not understand despite all the RAM 1:12:11.160 --> 1:12:13.400 because the Bears are like, what are we doing with it? 1:12:13.520 --> 1:12:15.559 But I agree with you about the coaching right, the 1:12:15.600 --> 1:12:19.160 coaching alone should not be a three point spread. In 1:12:19.240 --> 1:12:21.800 terms of the Bears. I think, boys, we've done all 1:12:21.800 --> 1:12:23.519 we can do, because apparently I can't figure out how 1:12:23.520 --> 1:12:29.960 to charge my computer without creating having apologize for that. Drew, 1:12:30.000 --> 1:12:32.599 thank you for the seismology update. If something does happen 1:12:32.600 --> 1:12:38.960 in southern California, this will live an infamy. This. Yeah, 1:12:41.000 --> 1:12:42.599 don't Drew. 1:12:44.000 --> 1:12:47.240 With me, you know, giving you the business there. It's 1:12:47.240 --> 1:12:50.680 all done in total jealousy. I am in complete jealousy. 1:12:51.280 --> 1:12:54.840 More situation. Just so you know, situation. 1:12:55.200 --> 1:12:57.120 I think you means your life, your situation. 1:12:57.400 --> 1:13:01.640 Yes, very jealous in these groups chats with Wish, Nev and. 1:13:01.640 --> 1:13:04.800 All of us, that's what. 1:13:06.280 --> 1:13:09.960 It's a complete joy a complete joy Drew, Drew has enough. 1:13:10.560 --> 1:13:13.479 Both of you guys can be ejected. I'll eject both 1:13:13.479 --> 1:13:16.280 of you right now. You want to go, you're having 1:13:16.320 --> 1:13:16.679 to hear. 1:13:17.760 --> 1:13:20.400 Drew has enough group chats in his life. Believe me, 1:13:21.360 --> 1:13:24.360 different things as well. All right, boys, Thank you Drew 1:13:24.400 --> 1:13:27.919 Dinsik again, Whale Underscore Capper, Deep Dive podcast with Jay Croucher, 1:13:28.240 --> 1:13:31.519 Excuse Me with Andy Molitor and NBC Sports Bet the 1:13:31.560 --> 1:13:33.800 Edge with Jay Croucher. How often do you do deep dive? 1:13:33.840 --> 1:13:36.120 How often do you do Bet the Edge? For everybody? 1:13:36.560 --> 1:13:41.080 Oh, deep Dive is twice a week Mondays and Wednesdays. 1:13:41.200 --> 1:13:44.080 And Bet the Edge we do daily so you can 1:13:44.160 --> 1:13:46.519 check it out and it should be it's updated so 1:13:46.560 --> 1:13:49.479 that Monday Wednesday, Monday, Monday through Friday. It should be 1:13:49.479 --> 1:13:51.680 the first thing that hits your feed as you get 1:13:51.760 --> 1:13:53.439 up and you start thinking about football betting. 1:13:54.200 --> 1:13:56.000 No more Sunday deep dives than you. Guys used to 1:13:56.040 --> 1:13:56.680 do it Sunday night. 1:13:57.320 --> 1:14:00.680 We used to do it Sunday night. But it's that 1:14:01.200 --> 1:14:03.639 we're not actually betting any of the openers just because 1:14:03.680 --> 1:14:09.720 it's not financially so, so waiting until Monday when we 1:14:09.720 --> 1:14:11.680 get a little bit better limits is kind of the 1:14:11.720 --> 1:14:12.679 new strategy this year. 1:14:13.640 --> 1:14:17.320 And are you still doing halftimes of prime time time? 1:14:17.360 --> 1:14:20.599 For the prime times? We'll be going live for uh 1:14:20.840 --> 1:14:23.760 Cowboys Giants tonight and we'll be deciding between back in 1:14:23.760 --> 1:14:26.519 the Cowboys second half or second half over probably we'll see. 1:14:26.600 --> 1:14:28.640 It's a great thing. Me and wish never we're going 1:14:28.680 --> 1:14:30.719 to do it. But Todd's too busy, he's you know. 1:14:30.680 --> 1:14:33.040 It's not that I told you what it is. You 1:14:33.080 --> 1:14:35.519 don't have to be such a jerk about it. Oh 1:14:35.640 --> 1:14:39.480 my god, this is unbelievable, unbelievable. 1:14:40.000 --> 1:14:43.360 It's your podcast, Todd. I apologize. All right, thank you 1:14:43.360 --> 1:14:46.240 for listening. We need to turn it around. I'm trying 1:14:46.800 --> 1:14:48.240 good luck with a tonight. 1:14:48.640 --> 1:14:50.240 Wait wait, wait, you can't. You can't give me a 1:14:50.240 --> 1:14:53.240 little uh at t wishnev on Twitter And and by 1:14:53.240 --> 1:14:55.320 the way, if guys want to be in my oh 1:14:55.360 --> 1:14:57.360 you did, okay? Anyways, if you want to be in 1:14:57.400 --> 1:15:00.360 my what end game? Because my college f Paul has 1:15:00.360 --> 1:15:02.280 been doing pretty good, My pros is not not that 1:15:02.360 --> 1:15:05.559 bad either, but uh, you can always send me a message. 1:15:05.560 --> 1:15:07.439 I can't get everybody in that fast because it takes 1:15:07.479 --> 1:15:10.240 time to type in everybody's information, but I'll add him 1:15:10.240 --> 1:15:12.639 as as they come when I get time to sit down. 1:15:12.680 --> 1:15:14.479 But you know, some people seem to. 1:15:14.400 --> 1:15:17.640 Like it all right, and Will Hill he has the 1:15:17.800 --> 1:15:20.640 uh I wish I had wagered an additional amount of 1:15:20.640 --> 1:15:22.720 money on this sporting event, and now I have deep 1:15:22.760 --> 1:15:25.880 regrets about not having done so podcasts, which I told him. 1:15:25.920 --> 1:15:27.599 I said, that's a stupid title. Just call it shit 1:15:27.640 --> 1:15:31.719 a bit more. And he was like, Okay, how often 1:15:31.720 --> 1:15:33.960 do you do that, Drew? Uh Will? How often? 1:15:34.080 --> 1:15:36.280 Three times a week? You know, as an avid listener? 1:15:36.280 --> 1:15:37.880 Three times a week Monday Wednesday. 1:15:37.520 --> 1:15:41.920 Friday Wednesday? Right, okay, thanks for listening. Good luck with 1:15:41.920 --> 1:15:44.080 all your beads. Week bore and then Ashen Football