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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: President Asad has left Syria, bringing an end to more

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Speaker 2: than half a century of his family's rule.

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Speaker 3: The collapse of the Acid regime, the tyranny in Damascus

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Speaker 3: offers great opportunity but also is fraught with significant danger.

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Speaker 4: We have to see this is an opportunity for the

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Speaker 4: future of Syria.

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Speaker 2: That's a future without the terrorism and violence that we've

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Speaker 2: seen far too much of in this brutal regime.

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Speaker 4: It's a moment of historic opportunity belong suffering people of

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Speaker 4: Syria to build a better future for the proud country.

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Speaker 1: It's also a moment of risk and uncertainty.

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Speaker 2: But with Asad gone, Russia has lost a key ally

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Speaker 2: and potentially key air and naval bases crucial for its

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Speaker 2: operations in Africa.

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Speaker 4: The absolute priority for US is the safety of all

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Speaker 4: Russian citizens located on the territory of the Syrian state,

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Speaker 4: as well as the in vilability of Russian facilities and

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Speaker 4: missions diplomatic, military, and others.

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Speaker 2: On today's episode of The Next Africa podcast, we'll ask

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Speaker 2: whether Russia still has the ability to project influence on

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Speaker 2: Africa and how regimes dependent on Russia for support are

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Speaker 2: planning for the future. I'm Jennifer's Abasaja and this is

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Speaker 2: the Next Africa podcast, bringing you one story each week

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Speaker 2: from the continent, driving the future of global growth with

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Speaker 2: the context only Bloomberg can provide. So joining us to

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Speaker 2: discuss how Russia's operations in Africa could be under threat

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Speaker 2: are our Bloomberg reporters, Simon Marx who is in Nairobi,

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Speaker 2: and Katerina Hooye in Dakar.

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Speaker 1: Hi both, Hi to you, both, Thank you for joining.

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Speaker 1: How's it going, Hi Jen, thanks for having us.

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Speaker 2: Let's just start on you know essentially what we do

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Speaker 2: know when it comes to the situation in Syria. The

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Speaker 2: world is still trying to work out the nones and

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Speaker 2: the unknowns. But why is losing the Middle Eastern ally

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Speaker 2: so important to Russia when it comes to its relations

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Speaker 2: and its connections to the African continent.

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Speaker 1: Make that connection for us if you can, Simon.

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Speaker 5: Syria is a real lynchpin in Russia's ability to send

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Speaker 5: supplies including weapons and fuel and other exports to countries

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Speaker 5: where it has a presence. In Africa, in recent years,

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Speaker 5: we've obviously seen Russia through the use of the mercenary

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Speaker 5: outfit Wagner, and then since its leader died in a

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Speaker 5: plane crash last year, the Russian Defense Ministry have been

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Speaker 5: really making moves to spread their geopolitical influence in Africa,

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Speaker 5: particularly in the Sahel, but also in the Central African

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Speaker 5: Republic and Sudan. And they need an air base and

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Speaker 5: a port in Syria as an air bridge to these countries.

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Speaker 5: Should these locations be unavailable to them, that air bridge

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Speaker 5: just falls to pieces, and so does their ability to

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Speaker 5: have influence. Quite simply in Africa.

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Speaker 2: What sort of influence though, are we talking about? Is

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Speaker 2: it physical bodies, getting people on the ground, is it supplies?

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Speaker 2: I mean, what exactly was the key point and the

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Speaker 2: importance for this region?

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Speaker 5: So it's all of the above. Both the Hamaimim air

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Speaker 5: Base as well as a port in Tatus have been

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Speaker 5: used to bring in fuel primarily and weapons, but then

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Speaker 5: also to send soldiers and mercenaries to the countries where

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Speaker 5: Russia has a role in supporting the government there. The

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Speaker 5: issue is is that Syria is close enough for Russian

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Speaker 5: cargo planes to make a stop, refuel on board whatever

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Speaker 5: it might be, soldiers or supplies, military supplies, and then

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Speaker 5: send them onwards to places such as bon Ghee or

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Speaker 5: wagadougu In Bokina Fessa, and.

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Speaker 2: You both make the point in your story about the

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Speaker 2: mileage and really how far it is getting supplies all

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Speaker 2: the way from Russia to Africa, Katerina. If that air base,

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Speaker 2: if that area is not an option for them, what

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Speaker 2: else potentially is a way around that?

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Speaker 1: If there is anything else?

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Speaker 3: Well, I mean, one option that's being mentioned by Russian

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Speaker 3: partners in Africa is using Turkey as a base. Another

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Speaker 3: one is Libya, but then I mean it's still you

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Speaker 3: don't have that, which would be an option. If Turkey

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Speaker 3: allowed Russian military cargo flights through its airspace, then they

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Speaker 3: could reach Libya fully loaded. This has happened on rare

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Speaker 3: occasions in the past, but it's still something that Russia

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Speaker 3: would have to negotiate. Other options that has been mentioned

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Speaker 3: is using Algeria or even Egypt as as sort of

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Speaker 3: a transit point into the countries where they keep troops,

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Speaker 3: which is basically IMALI what have about the thousand Kremlin

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Speaker 3: linked Wagner forces underground, but also no Nesia, Bookina, Faso

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Speaker 3: and Central Africa and republics. As Simon mentioned, another way

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Speaker 3: would be a land option. But that would not really

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Speaker 3: work when it comes to two quotations and getting supplies

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Speaker 3: into the ground. Another option is Sudan Port Sudan, where

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Speaker 3: Russia has been negotiating for access.

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Speaker 5: Russia has been lobbying the army in Sudan for many

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Speaker 5: years now, actually to build a military base on the

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Speaker 5: Red Sea, but it has proved quite arduous for them

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Speaker 5: to succeed. Iran is also pushing but there's a lot

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Speaker 5: of opposition to this from the likes of the US,

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Speaker 5: who clearly do not want to see Moscow have a

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Speaker 5: substantial military base on the Red Sea and gain even

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Speaker 5: more influence in Africa than they already have. Sudan so

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Speaker 5: far has taken somewhat of a backstep not made that

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Speaker 5: deal with Russia. They're quite aware of the geopolitics and

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Speaker 5: don't want to cause too much controversy at the moment.

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Speaker 2: And is it safe to say that we've seen Russia's

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Speaker 2: influence on the continent waning a bit? I mean, I

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Speaker 2: wonder how this situation if we try to piece together

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Speaker 2: where Russia is in terms of its influence on the

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Speaker 2: continent and how this could affect that. Simon, what would

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Speaker 2: you say, how would you describe it.

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Speaker 5: I think in the last five to ten years, Russia

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Speaker 5: has really stepped up its attempt to gain relevance geopolitically

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Speaker 5: and also economically throughout Africa, and we've seen them put

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Speaker 5: a lot of pressure through disinformation campaigns but also through

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Speaker 5: cutting bilateral deals with governments where a whole host of

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Speaker 5: military cups have taken place in recent years. And as

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Speaker 5: a result of that, we've seen a waning in the

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Speaker 5: ability of of more sort of legacy partners, colonial era

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Speaker 5: partners like France, you know, to keep their troops and

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Speaker 5: keep their business operations flowing in the same way. And likewise,

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Speaker 5: the US have also scaled back the number of troops

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Speaker 5: fighting Islamist groups on the continents. So it's it's looking

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Speaker 5: pretty good really for Russia, I would say in Africa.

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Speaker 5: But I think Katerina for sure can elaborate on this help.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, speaking to leaders here, they seem convinced that,

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Speaker 3: you know, the partnership with Russia is going to be sustained,

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Speaker 3: even those events, the recent events in Syria, and that

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Speaker 3: Russia would try to find out a military basis elsewhere

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Speaker 3: if it loses access to Syria. I mean that said

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Speaker 3: the questions has been raised their own social media and

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Speaker 3: also among populations in the Three to Hell States Mali, Bukina, Faso,

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Speaker 3: Ni year as in, what if the same scenario reproduces here?

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Speaker 3: What if there's a maybe not an attack on the

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Speaker 3: capital or rebels taking the country, but we have seen

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Speaker 3: a text in Mali's capital recently, there's been big a

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Speaker 3: text in Guagadougo. What if that happens in Russia doesn't

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Speaker 3: have this axis, would it actually step in and help

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Speaker 3: these leaders? I mean, we just saw them sort of

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Speaker 3: dropping a side in Syria. What would actually be their

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Speaker 3: reaction to a similar scenario in Africa.

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Speaker 2: Stick with us, Simon and Katerina. When we come back,

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Speaker 2: we're going to talk more about how the country is

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Speaker 2: dependent on Russia, have reacted and what could potentially come next.

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Speaker 2: We'll be right back. Welcome back today on the podcast,

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Speaker 2: we're digging into Russia's relationship with Africa as it loses

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Speaker 2: a key ally and potentially a key air bridge with

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Speaker 2: the fall of Asad in Syria. We have Bloomberg, Simon Marks,

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Speaker 2: and Katerina Hooyhei with us. Now, Katerina, you were just

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Speaker 2: speaking about the reaction that you're getting from people and

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Speaker 2: leaders in the Sahal, I mean generally is their concern

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Speaker 2: amongst most of the region about what this could potentially mean.

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Speaker 3: I mean, I think the majority still feels that, you know,

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Speaker 3: that Russia is a reliable partner, especially after having cut

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Speaker 3: ties with their Western allies and going towards severeignity product

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Speaker 3: that these states are on. That said, I mean again,

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Speaker 3: recent events in Mali and Bukina Faso where Russia hasn't

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Speaker 3: stepped in, and also most recently now in Syria, does

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Speaker 3: have people questioning the efficiency of their presence underground in

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Speaker 3: actually fighting fighting the limits insurgents or the rebels that

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Speaker 3: have been threatening these three countries. I think also seeing

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Speaker 3: it in the level of the states where all of

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Speaker 3: these three countries have sought other partnerships. I mean Mali

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Speaker 3: actually has a Turkish private company training the soldiers underground,

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Speaker 3: Nidia and Bukkina fas Or using drones from Turkey and China,

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Speaker 3: and in Central Africaan the public they have turned to

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Speaker 3: US private military company Bancroft. So there's definitely some sort

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Speaker 3: of of trying to diversify their relations to not fully

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Speaker 3: rely on Russia. It still remains a very very trusted partner.

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Speaker 3: The main partner is securityations, operations from outside the continent.

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Speaker 2: Is there one of these countries that perhaps needs Russia

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Speaker 2: more than the others? And I think about some of

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Speaker 2: them that are are landlocked, I mean, are they more

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Speaker 2: reliant on a partner like Russia being there on the ground.

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Speaker 5: Simon, Well, you mentioned obviously landlocked countries, and the Central

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Speaker 5: the Central African Republic fits that bill exactly. You know,

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Speaker 5: it's a it's a it's an isolated country which in

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Speaker 5: order for the president to hold onto power there and

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Speaker 5: resist armed groups a coalition of rebel groups in the country,

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Speaker 5: they have been very dependent on Wagner Group, but also

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Speaker 5: they have a military deal with with the Kremlin, which

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Speaker 5: also plays a role in the country. And in Libya,

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Speaker 5: they use one of four air bases there, it's called

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Speaker 5: the Black Alshati Air Base, where they send personnel and

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Speaker 5: military supplies in from and in order to get stuff

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Speaker 5: to this air base, they need Syria. Quite simply, this

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Speaker 5: airbase is too far from Russia from anywhere in Russia

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Speaker 5: to reach in one cargo flight, So losing these Syrian

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Speaker 5: operations they would be forced to reroute quite simply, and

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Speaker 5: Katerina mentioned earlier one way that they could potentially do

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Speaker 5: that is via the UAE, but that's it's far from

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Speaker 5: clear if indeed they could do that.

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Speaker 2: Is it too early to tell really how the fallout

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Speaker 2: will be across the region Based on the sources that

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Speaker 2: you both were speaking to for this story, do they have.

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Speaker 1: A clear indication of where things are headed to next?

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Speaker 3: If Russia is not able to sort of keep up

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Speaker 3: the link with Syria needs to find another option. I mean,

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Speaker 3: it could definitely impact you know, two quotations, the abilities

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Speaker 3: to get supplies into into the forces in these countries,

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Speaker 3: and obviously then you can't you can't maintain troops for

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Speaker 3: that long. The people were speaking too, don't think them

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Speaker 3: and it's not going to be an immediate pullout, but

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Speaker 3: obviously they have to rethink their operations becomes because they

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Speaker 3: become more costly or take more time. Maybe they would

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Speaker 3: cut countries like Nigeer or Bukina Faso, but they already

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Speaker 3: have a live into the presence in terms of the

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Speaker 3: impact on the countries and especially in the a health states,

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Speaker 3: I mean Mali, who does rely on the assistant of

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Speaker 3: Wagner to fight islamits insurgencies and the rebel groups that

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Speaker 3: they've been trying to push back in the north there

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Speaker 3: would definitely have an impact less so in Bukina, Faso

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Speaker 3: and Niger.

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Speaker 5: All these countries where Russia's present are inherently extremely fragile states.

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Speaker 5: And while on the on on the outset, on looking

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Speaker 5: at it frontally, it seems like, you know, there are

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Speaker 5: entrenched military hunters in a lot of these countries. Now

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Speaker 5: they are nonetheless very run ruble to to outside uprisings

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Speaker 5: both from the public and also from from well equipped

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Speaker 5: rebel armies and an instability from neighboring countries as as

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Speaker 5: Chad and Sudan are a fine example for the case

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Speaker 5: of Central African Republic. So it's very possible that you

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Speaker 5: could that you could see, you know, some shifts in

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Speaker 5: in who controls were in the coming twelve months.

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Speaker 2: And you can read all of our coverage on the

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Speaker 2: rapidly evolving situation in Syria across Bloomberg platforms. Now here's

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Speaker 2: some other stories we've been following across the region. This week,

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Speaker 2: Ethiopia and Somalia agreed to lower tensions over a deal

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Speaker 2: that would allow Addis Ababah to build a military base

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Speaker 2: on the coast of the breakaway region of Somaliland in

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Speaker 2: exchange for a stake in its national airline. The two

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Speaker 2: countries have agreed to forego and leave behind differences and

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Speaker 2: contentious issues and forge ahead and start technical negotiations to

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Speaker 2: resolve disputes with Turkey's help no later than the end

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Speaker 2: of February of twenty twenty five. A joint declaration said. Also,

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Speaker 2: Ghana's economic growth accelerated in the third quarter to the

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Speaker 2: fastest pace in almost five years after solid gains in

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Speaker 2: the industrial sector.

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Speaker 1: The data follows the election.

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Speaker 2: Victory of John Mohamma, who ran a campaign focused on

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Speaker 2: economic stability and debt relief. And on debt relief, the

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Speaker 2: IMF says it's open to renegotiating Ghana's financing program, something

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Speaker 2: Mohammad campaigned on if the economic objectives of.

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Speaker 1: The reform plans are realized.

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Speaker 2: You can follow these stories across Bloomberg, including the Next

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Speaker 2: African Newsletter. Will put a link to that in the

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Speaker 2: show notes. This program was produced by Adrian Bradley. Don't

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Speaker 2: forget to follow and review this show wherever you usually

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Speaker 2: get your podcasts.

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Speaker 1: I'm Jennifer's ob Asaga. Thanks for listening,