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Speaker 1: Welcome back to the show, fellow conspiracy realist, our classic tonight,

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Speaker 1: and actually we're having several this weekend in celebration of

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Speaker 1: the end of the year. We thought, what better time

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Speaker 1: to what better time to re examine our conversation with

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Speaker 1: one of our very good friends mentor of sorts. Although

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Speaker 1: he hates when we say that, Josh Clark.

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Speaker 2: It's a lot of pressure, no no, but it's accurate.

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Speaker 2: Josh is a cool guy and a super sharp cookie.

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Speaker 2: Can you be a sharp cookie?

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Speaker 3: Sure?

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Speaker 2: Crazon whatever. He's smart, okay, and he is super interested

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Speaker 2: in a lot of the same topics that we are,

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Speaker 2: not the least of which is the idea of this world,

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Speaker 2: this little pale blue dot that we occupy, coming to

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Speaker 2: an end, whether with a bang or with the whimper.

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Speaker 2: And there's a lot of different ways that that could

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Speaker 2: potentially happen. And that's what Josh covers on his podcast

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Speaker 2: at the End of the World.

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Speaker 4: All the little ways that this whole thing that we

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Speaker 4: call reality and experience could just go boom. That was it,

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Speaker 4: great job, but you don't even you don't even get

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Speaker 4: that it's just over.

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Speaker 2: But it's also not a massive bummer. The show is

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Speaker 2: handled with a thoughtful commentary, some interviews with some experts

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Speaker 2: in the field, and Josh's of course kind of you know,

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Speaker 2: trademark wit and lightheartedness, like it's it's heavy, but you'll

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Speaker 2: get through it, and it's you'll feel learned something and

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Speaker 2: you might you know, get some laughs and feel some

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Speaker 2: feels along the way.

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Speaker 1: So check out our conversation with our with our Ride

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Speaker 1: or Die Josh c himself, and then tune into the

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Speaker 1: show End of the World with Josh Clark, available now

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Speaker 1: in its entirety.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, well, and listen to how many things have come

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Speaker 3: to have or at least we're on the precipice of now.

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Speaker 3: Right since we made this in twelve twenty one, twenty

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Speaker 3: eighteen is when this came out. So many of the

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Speaker 3: things we discussed in this show feel like they've kind

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Speaker 3: of happened. The pandemic happened right after this. This is

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Speaker 3: December twenty twenty eighteen, and we're talking about gain of

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Speaker 3: function research in specific labs that are doing dangerous stuff.

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Speaker 4: I don't know, guys.

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Speaker 2: Let's see what Josh has to say about all this.

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Speaker 5: From UFOs to psychic powers and government conspiracies, history is

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Speaker 5: riddled with unexplained events. You can turn back now or

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Speaker 5: learn this stuff they don't want you to know.

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Speaker 4: Hello, welcome back to the show. My name is MaTx.

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Speaker 2: My name is Noa.

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Speaker 1: They called me Ben. We are joined with our super producer,

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Speaker 1: Paul Mission Control Decatt. Most importantly, you are you. You

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Speaker 1: are here that makes this stuff they don't want you

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Speaker 1: to know. Gentlemen, we are at the end of the year,

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Speaker 1: and today we are talking about the end of the world.

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Speaker 4: Yes, how humanity shall perhaps perish.

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Speaker 6: Yes, we you know, do a better job and fix things.

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Speaker 7: Yeah.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, sure we're gonna be able to fix it now.

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Speaker 1: We are not confronting these existential threats alone. Today we

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Speaker 1: are joined with an expert and a friend of the show,

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Speaker 1: longtime friend of ours both on and off the air.

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Speaker 4: He's kind of like our big brother in a way.

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Speaker 7: Friends and neighbors.

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Speaker 1: Josh Clark, Hey, guys, hey man.

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Speaker 6: Thank you for having me on.

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Speaker 2: I've always thought of you as a bit of a

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Speaker 2: big brother figure. I feel like you're always watching.

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Speaker 6: Like that's a little more my style for sure. The

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Speaker 6: hug like hey, you can do it kind of.

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Speaker 4: Well in my mind, it's more of a watching you

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Speaker 4: walk and then trying to find a way to fit

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Speaker 4: in those footsteps, at least in some small.

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Speaker 2: Way like matches gate like kind of like yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 2: really just trying.

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Speaker 7: That explains so much.

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Speaker 6: My gate is more of like a it's kind of

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Speaker 6: like a speedwalk, slash jazz or size cross things. So

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Speaker 6: it's tough to replicate. Man, I've seen you try, and

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Speaker 6: I think it's adorable.

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Speaker 1: Thanks, So hopefully, hopefully, Matt, you will have some time

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Speaker 1: to perfect that gate. And that leads us to the

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Speaker 1: big question, Josh. You recently created a podcast called The

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Speaker 1: End of the World, and one of the questions that

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Speaker 1: a lot of people have when we talk about the

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Speaker 1: end of the world is really a question of timeline.

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Speaker 1: You know, how much time does Matt Frederick have to

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Speaker 1: practice his gate?

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Speaker 6: Matt, I would give you one to two centuries tops, whoa,

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Speaker 6: which sounds like a lot of time. It does. You're like, well,

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Speaker 6: I'll be long in the grave most likely, although I

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Speaker 6: don't know you might live to a substantial portion of that.

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Speaker 6: But if you step back and think, what about the children,

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Speaker 6: what about the grandchildren, what about the future humans who

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Speaker 6: will will come down the line over the next one

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Speaker 6: hundred two hundred years, and then if you look beyond

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Speaker 6: that and really take a step back and look at

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Speaker 6: how long some people expect humanity to continue on into

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Speaker 6: the billions of years, all of a sudden, the idea

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Speaker 6: of going extinct in the next one hundred to two

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Speaker 6: hundred years suddenly becomes really terrifying and scary. If you

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Speaker 6: can kind of step outside of yourself.

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Speaker 4: Well quickly, let's just get kind of an idea of

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Speaker 4: what happens if humanity just does great, we don't we

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Speaker 4: don't kill ourselves off, some giant external thing doesn't wipe

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Speaker 4: humanity out. That billion years that you talked about for

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Speaker 4: humanity is that cut off date when the Sun essentially

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Speaker 4: creates death everywhere in our solar system.

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Speaker 6: Right, Yeah, Yeah, that's a thing for sure. A lot

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Speaker 6: of people say, if humanity didn't do anything, just kept

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Speaker 6: plotting along and rather than doing everything right, we just

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Speaker 6: kind of got lucky at every possible break. Okay, a

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Speaker 6: billion years is about how long we would last, because

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Speaker 6: that's about how long the Earth will last in its

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Speaker 6: place in the solar system. The Sun's going to grow, row,

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Speaker 6: and it will eventually basically swallow the Earth.

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Speaker 2: Just totally subsume it.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, everything, Yes, it's gonna it'll be bad news for

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Speaker 6: the Earth, but we've got a good billion years and

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Speaker 6: we can have a lot of fun and do a

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Speaker 6: lot of cool stuff in a billion years. That's the

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Speaker 6: low end, right, that's if we do nothing but just

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Speaker 6: hang around on Earth.

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Speaker 7: But alast people are kind of dumb.

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Speaker 6: You could make that case. It's true, but but there's

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Speaker 6: also a lot of hope to future ingenuity. And then

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Speaker 6: also I think as far as dumbness goes contemporarily, it's

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Speaker 6: more complacency than being dumb, you know what I'm saying.

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Speaker 6: It's almost like there's some weird death cult mentality among

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Speaker 6: a lot of people on Earth where it's just like,

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Speaker 6: if humanity goes extinct, that's just what happens. Is maybe

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Speaker 6: we deserve it, which drives me bananas that sentiment, that

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Speaker 6: idea that maybe humanity deserves to go extinct. We've screwed

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Speaker 6: it up for so long. Maybe this is what we

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Speaker 6: have coming. And I disagree with that tremendously. But some

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Speaker 6: experts say, Okay, if we continue on like being humans

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Speaker 6: and the kind of humans that we are at this point,

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Speaker 6: we're probably going to do some pretty interesting things like

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Speaker 6: get off of Earth in the near future. Actually maybe

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Speaker 6: one hundred years, maybe two hundred years, maybe five hundre years,

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Speaker 6: even if it's a thousand years, that's plenty of time

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Speaker 6: for us to just basically be like Audios Earth, that

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Speaker 6: was nice. Or if you're starting to look into like

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Speaker 6: the millions of years and all the things we could

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Speaker 6: possibly do, maybe we can move Earth, or maybe we

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Speaker 6: can prevent the Sun from growing, because actually what it's

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Speaker 6: doing is burning the last of its fuel. There's plenty

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Speaker 6: of ways we could make the Sun burn more efficiently

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Speaker 6: and extend its life by billions of years and then

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Speaker 6: save Earth in the process. There's a lot of stuff

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Speaker 6: we could be doing. So when you start to look

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Speaker 6: into that, then you begin to run into the top

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Speaker 6: limit for humanity's lifetime lifespan into the billions and billions

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Speaker 6: and billions of years, possibly to the heat death of

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Speaker 6: the universe, which is untold billions of years away into

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Speaker 6: the future.

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Speaker 7: The final end of the franchise.

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Speaker 6: Not necessarily, not necessarily, because one thing I came across

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Speaker 6: and it kind of comes in at the end of

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Speaker 6: the Physics episode is we are starting to figure out

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Speaker 6: how we could theoretically create lab grown universes, so who

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Speaker 6: knows why, Maybe we can learn to grow universes and

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Speaker 6: when this one's starting to wind down, we can be like, oh, well,

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Speaker 6: we're gonna move over here into this fresh new universe.

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Speaker 6: And then that extends it indefinitely, humanity's lifespan indefinitely. So

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Speaker 6: when you take all this into account, all of the

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Speaker 6: possibility that we have laying out ahead of us, it's

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Speaker 6: really unnerving to think that those of us, allie today

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Speaker 6: have the weight of all that on our shoulders. It's

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Speaker 6: up to us to save that future for the rest

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Speaker 6: of humanity to come. And that's the stakes right now.

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Speaker 1: Wow, So let's put we've got the context in terms

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Speaker 1: of timeline here, let's look at the basic, the bare

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Speaker 1: bones definitions. The end of the world deals with the

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Speaker 1: phrase that we mentioned earlier in this show, existential risk.

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Speaker 1: What for audience, what is an existential risk? And are

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Speaker 1: some more let's see, more imminent than others.

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Speaker 6: So great question. Existential risks are something that have been

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Speaker 6: around for a very long time. We've lived under like

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Speaker 6: natural existential risks like the sun growing and overwhelming Earth

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Speaker 6: and burning it to a crisp. That's a natural existential risk.

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Speaker 6: An existential risk is anything that can wipe out humanity forever,

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Speaker 6: like we're just gone, there's no more humans left, or

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Speaker 6: the humans that are left can never get back to

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Speaker 6: whatever place in history that we fell from. That's an

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Speaker 6: existential risk. And there's this guy over in Oxford, the

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Speaker 6: Oxford University, who spends his time thinking about these things

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Speaker 6: and has assembled this basically like super team of thinkers

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Speaker 6: who are all thinking about what to do about existential risks,

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Speaker 6: what existential risks we're not thinking about, and then what

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Speaker 6: to do if we do manage to pass these existential

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Speaker 6: risks that are coming our way and live into the

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Speaker 6: billions of years, all the amazing things we could do.

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Speaker 6: So the guy's name is Nick Bostrom, and the center

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Speaker 6: that he founded is called the Future of Humanity Institute.

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Speaker 6: And they're not the only group thinking about this, but

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Speaker 6: they're kind of like the og group who started thinking

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Speaker 6: about these things. And Nick Bostrom is kind of widely

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Speaker 6: viewed as basically the father of the field of existential

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Speaker 6: risk mitigation, and he really kind of took some disparate

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Speaker 6: thoughts that guys like Derek Parfitt and Carl Sagan had

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Speaker 6: back in about the eighties and put him together into

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Speaker 6: like a genuine, refined philosophy that's basically based on we

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Speaker 6: need to do something pretty soon or we were, we

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Speaker 6: probably aren't going to make it.

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Speaker 7: TikTok, TikTok, TikTok.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, that's true.

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Speaker 2: That's my question though, is our existential risks inherently something

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Speaker 2: that's external to our actions as humans on the planet

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Speaker 2: of things that we do that could potentially, you know,

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Speaker 2: cause us to not exist as a species, like you know,

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Speaker 2: climate change and things like that, the impacts that we

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Speaker 2: have on the planet, or is it all about like

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Speaker 2: things that are beyond our control, that are bigger than

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Speaker 2: us that we don't have control.

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Speaker 6: It's both, for sure, And so there's there's natural existential

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Speaker 6: risks like the sun growing and asteroid like the kind

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Speaker 6: that took out the dinosaurs, wiping it out, wiping us out.

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Speaker 6: Those we can't do a whole lot about now. We

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Speaker 6: can all imagine a time like maybe a few decades

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Speaker 6: from now, where we can direct redirect the course of

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Speaker 6: like an asteroid that could be colliding with Earth. Right

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Speaker 6: but right now we can't do anything about the natural risks.

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Speaker 6: The ones we can do something about are anthropogenic existential risks,

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Speaker 6: which are human made existential risks, and we have a

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Speaker 6: few of those coming down the pike coming our way.

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Speaker 6: There is Artificial intelligence is a big one. Another one

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Speaker 6: is physics. Surprisingly high energy physics experiments may or may

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Speaker 6: not pose an existential risk. But if some of the

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Speaker 6: some of the theories of quantum gravity that seek to

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Speaker 6: move marry the standard model with relativity, if some of

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Speaker 6: those are right, then actually, yes, these physics experiments are

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Speaker 6: quite dangerous that we're doing right now. And then biotechnology

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Speaker 6: is another big one, and there's some other ones too,

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Speaker 6: like nanotech could conceivably be an existential risk to us,

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Speaker 6: and all of these things. As we're starting to wake

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Speaker 6: up to the concept of existential risks, as our field

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Speaker 6: of vision is kind of coming into focus, we're suddenly

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Speaker 6: recognizing like, oh, there's one. Oh, there's another one. Oh

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Speaker 6: there's one.

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Speaker 7: Oh.

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Speaker 6: Oh geez, there's another one right there, and they're starting

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Speaker 6: to come our way, and very few people are paying

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Speaker 6: attention to them. That's really the alarming part of the

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Speaker 6: whole thing.

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Speaker 1: Isn't It also mentioned earlier that it's a situation rooted

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Speaker 1: in apathy for a lot of people. But one of

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Speaker 1: the questions people will have when they hear this is

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Speaker 1: if we're talking about a global existential risk, if we're

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Speaker 1: talking about not just a risk, a threat that's bigger

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Speaker 1: than an individual's action, how would people mitigate something global?

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Speaker 1: Like how Let's say my name is Dave Everyman and

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Speaker 1: I'm listening here in Manitoba for some reason, and I say, man,

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Speaker 1: the wild animals are dying at this incredibly cartoonish rate,

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Speaker 1: which will topple the ecosystem.

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Speaker 7: Right in the food chain. But what can I do?

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Speaker 7: I'm just Dave Everyman.

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Speaker 6: So first of all, I was wondering when it was

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Speaker 6: going to get crazy, And now that Dave Everyman has

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Speaker 6: made an appearance, it's quite obvious it just happened. So

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Speaker 6: that kind of ties into something you said earlier, knowl

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Speaker 6: that you were asking about, was like climate change is

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Speaker 6: you know, climate change actually doesn't necessarily count as an

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Speaker 6: existential risk. As bad as it would be now, it

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Speaker 6: would for plenty of species that will be affected and

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Speaker 6: wiped out, Like it's starting to look like coral climate

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Speaker 6: change is going to be an existential threat to coral

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Speaker 6: or it is already, but to humans. And that's the thing,

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Speaker 6: like we I really want to focus this in, like

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Speaker 6: I'm talking about humans when I'm talking about existential risks.

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Speaker 6: In the entire series, it's all about things that can

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Speaker 6: wipe out humanity, but existential risks exist for basically any

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Speaker 6: living thing on Earth. And it turns out from what

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Speaker 6: I saw something kind of came up as humans are

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Speaker 6: actually an existential threat to just about everything else on Earth, right,

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Speaker 6: And I think kind of part and parcel to us

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Speaker 6: saving ourselves and saving the world right is at the

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Speaker 6: same time simultaneously learning that kind of being at the

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Speaker 6: top of the food chain, being Dave, everyman who has

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Speaker 6: the ability to think and act about this kind of

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Speaker 6: stuff that makes us stewards for or the rest of

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Speaker 6: the planet. So even if climate change is not an

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Speaker 6: existential threat to humans, which it seems like it's not,

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Speaker 6: from taking on existential risks, from taking on existential threats,

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Speaker 6: we should, in my opinion, kind of change our mentality,

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Speaker 6: whether we like it or not, whether we're trying to

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Speaker 6: or not, though our outlook would change, and I think

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Speaker 6: that things like climate change would be mitigated. And this

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Speaker 6: idea that Dave Everyman can't do anything to help that

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Speaker 6: sense of hopelessness that just kind of presses all of us,

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Speaker 6: you know, down into our couches and into this funk.

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Speaker 6: That kind of thing will go away. And the reason

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Speaker 6: why it will go away, the reason why we can

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Speaker 6: do anything, why Dave every Man can do anything at all,

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Speaker 6: is because it turns out no one at the top

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Speaker 6: is doing anything. I talked to this philosopher named Toby

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Speaker 6: ort who's one of the guys at the Future of

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Speaker 6: Humanity Institute, and he has spoken to people in the

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Speaker 6: highest echelons of government about this. One of the things

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Speaker 6: they do is is try to like warn people and

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Speaker 6: government and say, hey, you're a policy maker. They're not

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Speaker 6: designing AI very well right now, and one of them

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Speaker 6: could get out of control and take over the world.

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Speaker 6: What do you think about that? What are you guys

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Speaker 6: doing about that? Oh, well, you know, that's really kind

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Speaker 6: of above my pay grade. I'm sure someone else is

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Speaker 6: handling this. And Toby Oorver's like, there's nobody above your

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Speaker 6: pay grade, Like, it's up to you guys. If you're

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Speaker 6: not doing anything, then that means no one's doing anything.

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Speaker 4: Well, yeah, they're stuck in like a cycle of elections, right,

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Speaker 4: that's all those things for sure.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, that's a big part of the problems as far

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Speaker 6: as like leadership goes is you know, not just with

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Speaker 6: existential risks, but basically any large project, any long term thing.

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Speaker 6: That's one of the things that climate change is run

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Speaker 6: up into.

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Speaker 2: Well, but it's politicized too, so it's like literally you're

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Speaker 2: appealing to a particular base by choosing to say something's

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Speaker 2: not really a problem or ignoring it.

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Speaker 7: Sure, that's almost.

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Speaker 2: Like a power move to say this isn't really happening,

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Speaker 2: I know, because I'm in charge or I'm the smartest

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Speaker 2: guy in the room, right and I ignore all these

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Speaker 2: other people that are saying that it is, you know

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Speaker 2: what I mean, Like, it's not it's not it's almost

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Speaker 2: ignorance as a like a move kind of you know.

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Speaker 6: Like willful.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, exactly.

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Speaker 6: And it's a disdain for expertise too. I think that's

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Speaker 6: a really popular thing right now. And that kind of

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Speaker 6: ties into that whole death cult thing that bothers me

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Speaker 6: so much. You know, it's it's like, you're a scientist,

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Speaker 6: I don't care, you know, get out of my face, egghead,

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Speaker 6: I don't care about the climate. And that's just kind

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Speaker 6: of a sentiment, just a feeling. That's not the entire zeitgeist,

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Speaker 6: but it's definitely a part of the zeitgeist right now

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Speaker 6: for sure.

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Speaker 2: It's almost like we don't have that much time anyway,

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Speaker 2: so let's just get the most out of it that

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Speaker 2: we can in the short time we have, not really

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Speaker 2: worry about the next part.

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Speaker 6: You know what I mean. It's basically like the disco

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Speaker 6: era took over the entire world. You know, That's kind

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Speaker 6: of what it feels like.

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Speaker 1: So we'll pause here and continue after a word from

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Speaker 1: our sponsor. Here's the question.

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Speaker 7: Here's the turn for our show, because now.

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Speaker 1: We're talking about will foil ignorance or anti intellectualism and

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Speaker 1: and all these other all these other flavors of governance

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Speaker 1: and society, right or the problematic flavors. Is there, to

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Speaker 1: your knowledge, any sort of cover up or conspiratorial events

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Speaker 1: surrounding any of these existential risks?

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Speaker 7: You knew you knew we were gonna ask this.

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Speaker 6: I was hoping. I think I prematurely caught the where

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Speaker 6: it got crazy with the Dave Everyman thing.

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Speaker 1: Okay, but I really appreciate you doubling down on Dave

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Speaker 1: every shure, Well.

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Speaker 6: I think I quadrupled down on Dave everyman, and it's

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Speaker 6: pronounced every man the British pronounces of the Manitoba every Okay, gotcha. Now,

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Speaker 6: now I know exactly who you're talking about, So uh I,

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Speaker 6: I'm quite sure that there have been. I don't think

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Speaker 6: that there are, in necessarily in fields like AI. I

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Speaker 6: I know that the physics community is actually quite the

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Speaker 6: opposite of that. They the people at CERN in particular,

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Speaker 6: have been working over time while also simultaneously bending over

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Speaker 6: backwards to show that the large Hadron Collider is safe.

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Speaker 6: But the thing that made that episode, the physics episode,

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Speaker 6: the most interesting to me is a lot of the

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Speaker 6: suggestions that it might not be safe are coming from physicists.

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Speaker 6: It's not from just external you know, guys who who

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Speaker 6: you know declared their own patch of land in Nevada

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Speaker 6: Country or anything like that. It's like actual physicists who

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Speaker 6: work with particle colliders, who work in theory. And also

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Speaker 6: I didn't mean to denigrate a lot of their demographics,

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Speaker 6: just now that they they are the They are the

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Speaker 6: people who are kind of raising the alarm on particle

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Speaker 6: colliders possibly creating microscopic bike holes and that kind of thing.

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Speaker 6: So if I had to zero in on one group

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Speaker 6: where there was, if not necessarily like conspiratorial cover ups,

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Speaker 6: at the very least a lot of kind of brushing

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Speaker 6: stuff under the rug, it would be the biotech field

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Speaker 6: for sure. For sure, the level of recklessness and accident proneness,

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Speaker 6: I guess is a terrible way to put it, that

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Speaker 6: comes out of the biotech field, and certainly not the

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Speaker 6: entire biotech field. There's plenty of people in the biotech field,

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Speaker 6: and I would say the vast majority of the biotech

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Speaker 6: field is very, very careful. But the problem with biotech

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Speaker 6: is that even if you are careful, accidents still happen.

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Speaker 6: And if you go back and you look at the statistics,

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Speaker 6: not even statistics, like actual numbers of like accidental releases

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Speaker 6: of deadly, deadly pathogens from labs into the great wide world,

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Speaker 6: just over a very short time. We're talking hundreds and

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Speaker 6: hundreds of them. And the thing that bothers me the

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Speaker 6: most about biotech when I researched this, I started to

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Speaker 6: get like kind of mad. I'm like, this angers me

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Speaker 6: that there's this field and no one. I can't say

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Speaker 6: no one, but very few people and certainly not enough

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Speaker 6: people are paying attention to and regulating the biotech field.

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Speaker 6: There are some really reckless experiments that are being carried out,

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Speaker 6: and there are just a small fraction of labs in

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Speaker 6: the world are required to report accidents even let alone

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Speaker 6: what they're doing or what kind of experiments sec carrying

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Speaker 6: out accidents like meaning a deadly pathogen made it out

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Speaker 6: in the skin of a lab worker who didn't realize

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Speaker 6: it and it started to kind of spread or whatever.

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Speaker 6: You don't like if you were a private corporate lab

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Speaker 6: working in the biotech field and an accident happens, you

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Speaker 6: don't have to tell anybody about it. You don't have

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Speaker 6: to tell a single soul. You have to be funded

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Speaker 6: by the National Institutes of Health in the United States

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Speaker 6: or be affiliated with a lab in the United States

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Speaker 6: funded by the National Institutes of Health to be required

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Speaker 6: to poor accidents. So of the like six hundred and

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Speaker 6: fifty accidental releases between I think two thousand and four

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Speaker 6: and twenty ten, maybe those were specifically accidents reported by

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Speaker 6: labs that are funded by the NIH. That's it. Wow,

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Speaker 6: there are so many more labs BSL three and four

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Speaker 6: labs those are the most the most secure labs, but

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Speaker 6: that means that they're also the ones who are working

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Speaker 6: with the deadliest pathogens. There are so many of those

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Speaker 6: in the world, and it's become such a like a

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Speaker 6: cool thing to be a corporation or like a university,

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Speaker 6: or to have a BSL three or four lab. No

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Speaker 6: one has any idea how many there are in the world.

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Speaker 6: Not a single person on planet Earth knows exactly how

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Speaker 6: many BSL three and four labs there are on Earth

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Speaker 6: right now.

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Speaker 2: So where is the oversight coming from for those labs?

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Speaker 6: I mean basically nowhere. I think the USDA has some jurisdiction.

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Speaker 2: Like OSHA or something they don't have like work site

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Speaker 2: hazard you know, inspections and things like that.

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Speaker 6: So as far as I'm sure that they do as

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Speaker 6: far as like OSHA goes, yeah, I think that that

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Speaker 6: would that would be extended to everything, including those labs.

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Speaker 6: But as far as like reporting it to like the

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Speaker 6: CDC or the NIH, there's no requirements unless you are

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Speaker 6: NIH funded.

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Speaker 7: That's terrifying.

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Speaker 6: It is extremely terrible.

438
00:23:20,920 --> 00:23:24,720
Speaker 1: And we're just talking about the United States right exactly.

439
00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:26,920
Speaker 6: So if you are, you know, working in a lab

440
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:30,520
Speaker 6: in Korea, Korea. South Korea, I'm sure has like legislation

441
00:23:30,760 --> 00:23:32,720
Speaker 6: or laws that say, you know, you have to do this,

442
00:23:32,880 --> 00:23:34,639
Speaker 6: or you have to follow these rules or whatever, but

443
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:39,359
Speaker 6: there's there's no there's certainly no universal oversight agency. The

444
00:23:39,480 --> 00:23:43,880
Speaker 6: UN has is toothless in this respect, in almost every respect,

445
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:49,000
Speaker 6: but certainly in this respect right like toothless. The World

446
00:23:49,000 --> 00:23:52,439
Speaker 6: Health Organization has like zero say in this. It's just

447
00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:58,240
Speaker 6: it's just the wild West. And unfortunately, there are microbiologists

448
00:23:58,240 --> 00:24:02,080
Speaker 6: and plenty of them in field who are like, whoaha, whoa,

449
00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:05,040
Speaker 6: whoa what what experiment did you just run? Like you

450
00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:11,719
Speaker 6: just escalated the contagiousness of this deadly flu virus so

451
00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:14,440
Speaker 6: that it can be passed more easily among mammals. Why

452
00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:16,919
Speaker 6: did you just do that? We should have a two

453
00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:20,679
Speaker 6: or three or four year moratorium on those kind of experiments.

454
00:24:20,720 --> 00:24:24,520
Speaker 6: And that kind of thing does get observed in the field,

455
00:24:24,800 --> 00:24:28,560
Speaker 6: but it takes people in the field to do that

456
00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:31,320
Speaker 6: to raise the alarm, and they don't always do it,

457
00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:34,920
Speaker 6: and it's not necessarily having this sweeping effect. And then

458
00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:37,240
Speaker 6: after they raised the alarm and study the problem, there's

459
00:24:37,280 --> 00:24:40,440
Speaker 6: nobody stepping in and saying, yeah, don't do that. Anymore

460
00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:41,840
Speaker 6: really quickly.

461
00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:45,719
Speaker 4: I just want to stay in here because something that

462
00:24:45,760 --> 00:24:47,360
Speaker 4: I kind of knew about, but I learned a lot

463
00:24:47,400 --> 00:24:49,680
Speaker 4: more about through listening to your podcast was gain a

464
00:24:49,760 --> 00:24:52,639
Speaker 4: function research, right, And what exactly that is? Can you

465
00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:54,680
Speaker 4: just tell us about that and why it's so dangerous?

466
00:24:54,760 --> 00:24:55,000
Speaker 7: Sure?

467
00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:58,080
Speaker 6: So I talked to a few experts, like legitimate experts

468
00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:02,439
Speaker 6: on this, and gainunction research is where you take a

469
00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:07,119
Speaker 6: wild virus, I guess, a natural virus, and you force

470
00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:10,560
Speaker 6: a mutation in it so that it becomes deadlier or

471
00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:14,320
Speaker 6: it becomes more contagious, or it becomes less susceptible to

472
00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:17,639
Speaker 6: treatments or drugs or something like that. And when when

473
00:25:17,720 --> 00:25:22,080
Speaker 6: you force mutations in this virus or a pathogen of

474
00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:26,080
Speaker 6: any sort and it becomes deadlier or more contagious or

475
00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:29,639
Speaker 6: less susceptible, it has gained function, is what they call it.

476
00:25:29,680 --> 00:25:32,879
Speaker 6: So gain a function research is basically taking evolution and

477
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:36,080
Speaker 6: speeding it up. And they'll do things like they'll force

478
00:25:36,080 --> 00:25:38,520
Speaker 6: a bunch of mutations and kind of selectively breed a

479
00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:41,399
Speaker 6: virus until they think it has the kind of the

480
00:25:41,520 --> 00:25:44,920
Speaker 6: kind of like maybe contagiousness they're looking for, and then

481
00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:49,280
Speaker 6: they'll introduce it into like a ferret's nose, and they'll

482
00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:51,600
Speaker 6: take that and introduce it to another ferret's nose, and

483
00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:55,600
Speaker 6: they'll just basically speed up the process of an infection

484
00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:59,439
Speaker 6: a pandemic among you know, lab animals. And this was

485
00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:03,760
Speaker 6: done with I think H five N one in a

486
00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:07,240
Speaker 6: couple of different labs simultaneously but independently. It's really weird.

487
00:26:07,600 --> 00:26:11,760
Speaker 6: They took this really really deadly virus and they basically

488
00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:17,600
Speaker 6: taught it to be transferred from one ferret to another

489
00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:22,800
Speaker 6: through like sneezes and coughs. The saving grace, the thing

490
00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:25,400
Speaker 6: that's kept us all alive as far as H five

491
00:26:25,560 --> 00:26:28,240
Speaker 6: N one goes, except for a handful of unlucky people,

492
00:26:28,960 --> 00:26:32,159
Speaker 6: is that it's really tough to spread. It's really really deadly.

493
00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:34,399
Speaker 6: I think it has like a seventy or eighty percent

494
00:26:34,440 --> 00:26:37,640
Speaker 6: mortality rate, but it's really hard to catch. Well, these

495
00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:41,040
Speaker 6: guys were forcing gain a function to make that virus

496
00:26:41,160 --> 00:26:45,240
Speaker 6: much easier to catch. And when they started publishing these

497
00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:48,960
Speaker 6: these studies, the field just went nuts. They were not

498
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:51,800
Speaker 6: having it. They were very upset about this. They said,

499
00:26:51,800 --> 00:26:54,240
Speaker 6: this was very reckless. Why are you doing this in

500
00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:56,920
Speaker 6: the first place. And then some people have even said,

501
00:26:57,800 --> 00:27:00,480
Speaker 6: these experiments did not need to take place at all.

502
00:27:00,720 --> 00:27:03,399
Speaker 6: You can actually study the same kind of stuff just

503
00:27:03,440 --> 00:27:06,560
Speaker 6: by studying proteins. You don't have to have a wild

504
00:27:06,960 --> 00:27:11,399
Speaker 6: or live, active, deadly virus that you're creating this in.

505
00:27:11,720 --> 00:27:14,040
Speaker 6: You can just study the proteins. So if you kind

506
00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:15,640
Speaker 6: of step back, or I should say, if you dig

507
00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:17,480
Speaker 6: a little deeper into it, you start to get the

508
00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:20,440
Speaker 6: impression that there's a lot of ego that are driving

509
00:27:20,520 --> 00:27:23,280
Speaker 6: experiments like this just to kind of show that it

510
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:28,080
Speaker 6: can be done. And the field has a really extensive

511
00:27:28,200 --> 00:27:31,800
Speaker 6: history of that kind of like gun slinging recklessness, like

512
00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:33,880
Speaker 6: look what I did. And the problem is is when

513
00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:36,560
Speaker 6: you create a virus like that, it's alive. It lives

514
00:27:36,560 --> 00:27:38,760
Speaker 6: on Earth with us, and that means that it is

515
00:27:38,800 --> 00:27:41,560
Speaker 6: your responsibility for the rest of time to either one

516
00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:44,440
Speaker 6: hundred percent eradicate it from Earth or you have to

517
00:27:44,520 --> 00:27:46,280
Speaker 6: keep up with it make sure it doesn't get out.

518
00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:49,000
Speaker 6: And if it does get out, well that's a big

519
00:27:49,040 --> 00:27:51,520
Speaker 6: problem because now you have an H five N one

520
00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:56,240
Speaker 6: virus that's extremely deadly and also extremely contagious, and that's

521
00:27:56,320 --> 00:28:00,360
Speaker 6: the existential threat posed in the biotech field. There are

522
00:28:00,400 --> 00:28:04,439
Speaker 6: really risky experiments being carried out, and they also have

523
00:28:04,600 --> 00:28:09,880
Speaker 6: a long history of being accident prone as well. That's

524
00:28:09,920 --> 00:28:12,560
Speaker 6: the one that gets my blood raised the most.

525
00:28:13,400 --> 00:28:15,479
Speaker 4: I don't know if you could tell it's scary.

526
00:28:16,119 --> 00:28:20,440
Speaker 1: I mean it's a terrifying proposition, because we hear in

527
00:28:20,800 --> 00:28:23,960
Speaker 1: the news cycle, right, we hear about maybe once every

528
00:28:24,119 --> 00:28:27,879
Speaker 1: year and a half a report of a virulent strain

529
00:28:28,000 --> 00:28:31,000
Speaker 1: of something breaking out in a specific part of the world,

530
00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:34,160
Speaker 1: and the question is always how far will it get

531
00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:34,840
Speaker 1: this time?

532
00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:35,520
Speaker 7: Right?

533
00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:39,560
Speaker 1: So are you saying that there is a real and

534
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:46,640
Speaker 1: substantial possibility that some sort of aggressively modified virus or

535
00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:50,360
Speaker 1: contagion really could just through the slip of someone's hand,

536
00:28:50,520 --> 00:28:51,720
Speaker 1: spread across the planet.

537
00:28:52,000 --> 00:28:56,720
Speaker 6: I mean, it's not one of those things where one

538
00:28:57,000 --> 00:29:00,920
Speaker 6: virus being experimented on and one lab poses a significant

539
00:29:02,400 --> 00:29:05,520
Speaker 6: risk to humanity. But it is a risk just that

540
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:08,040
Speaker 6: one virus in that one lab does pose a risk

541
00:29:08,320 --> 00:29:10,400
Speaker 6: just by the very fact that it exists. And there

542
00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 6: are such things as humans who are accident prone experimenting

543
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:19,920
Speaker 6: on them. Right. So the problem comes when you have many,

544
00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:23,800
Speaker 6: many people running the same or similar experiments with the

545
00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:27,760
Speaker 6: same or similar viruses all over the world in an

546
00:29:27,880 --> 00:29:32,719
Speaker 6: unknown number of labs, then that one that one remote

547
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:35,320
Speaker 6: risk starts to compound and get a little a little

548
00:29:35,400 --> 00:29:38,720
Speaker 6: more dangerous than a little more dicey. I don't think

549
00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:43,800
Speaker 6: that there's any virus right now that could conceivably wipe

550
00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:47,440
Speaker 6: out one hundred percent of humanity or so many humans

551
00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:51,680
Speaker 6: that we would we could never possibly rebuild civilization ten

552
00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:54,360
Speaker 6: thousand years down the road. I don't think so. I

553
00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:57,240
Speaker 6: don't know. I'm not in the biotech field, but from

554
00:29:57,880 --> 00:30:02,120
Speaker 6: the outside looking in to the the progression of the

555
00:30:02,520 --> 00:30:07,000
Speaker 6: field over the last few decades in particular, it does

556
00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:12,240
Speaker 6: seem like that's the direction it's going. From my view,

557
00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:15,760
Speaker 6: just mine, and I'm not an expert, but from my view,

558
00:30:16,640 --> 00:30:20,800
Speaker 6: the sentiment, or the sentiment that I've kind of tapped into, is,

559
00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:25,040
Speaker 6: if you are a microbiologist of the kind of cowboy ilk,

560
00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:29,720
Speaker 6: coming up with a contagious virus with one hundred percent

561
00:30:29,760 --> 00:30:34,320
Speaker 6: mortality would be like your crowning achievement, basically, And the

562
00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:36,800
Speaker 6: whole premise of this is to study it so we

563
00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:39,200
Speaker 6: can figure out how to treat them. And that is

564
00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 6: like a that's a legitimate avenue of research, that's the

565
00:30:42,840 --> 00:30:46,960
Speaker 6: main avenue of research for virology. That's the point largely.

566
00:30:47,760 --> 00:30:51,160
Speaker 6: But do we need to force gain of function in

567
00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:54,680
Speaker 6: viruses that don't exist like that in order to treat it?

568
00:30:54,760 --> 00:30:57,760
Speaker 6: That's the question that I have, and to me, the

569
00:30:57,840 --> 00:31:00,600
Speaker 6: answer is no. I think there are definitely ways to

570
00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:03,080
Speaker 6: do it, and we should be focusing our research and

571
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:06,600
Speaker 6: figuring out how to treat viruses that could conceivably get

572
00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 6: like that without creating them first.

573
00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:14,160
Speaker 1: So, assuming that the world doesn't end, we'll be right

574
00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:24,080
Speaker 1: back after a word from our sponsor. I'd like to

575
00:31:24,120 --> 00:31:27,280
Speaker 1: take a slight pivot here and ask a couple of

576
00:31:27,280 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 1: biographical questions we probably.

577
00:31:28,920 --> 00:31:30,160
Speaker 7: Should have asked in the beginning.

578
00:31:31,160 --> 00:31:34,200
Speaker 1: This is This entire interview has made me very conscious

579
00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:37,320
Speaker 1: of time as well. Okay, I hope we have enough

580
00:31:37,360 --> 00:31:41,240
Speaker 1: time to finish. One thing a lot of people would

581
00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:45,600
Speaker 1: want to know is whether there was some specific moment

582
00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:49,960
Speaker 1: in your life that inspired the End of the World series.

583
00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:52,920
Speaker 7: Was it?

584
00:31:53,000 --> 00:31:55,640
Speaker 1: Was it something related to biotech? Did you like get

585
00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:59,000
Speaker 1: a nasty cold and the doctor said, boy, uh, this

586
00:31:59,080 --> 00:32:01,360
Speaker 1: is weird job to sit down.

587
00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:02,360
Speaker 7: You're what happens?

588
00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:06,480
Speaker 6: Have you been hanging out with Ferretts lately? I actually

589
00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:10,080
Speaker 6: was sick while I wrote the Biotech episode but yeah,

590
00:32:10,200 --> 00:32:14,120
Speaker 6: which just really drove everything home that much more. The

591
00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:17,840
Speaker 6: thing that inspired me to do the series, which and

592
00:32:17,920 --> 00:32:20,280
Speaker 6: also I want to just take this time right now,

593
00:32:20,400 --> 00:32:23,120
Speaker 6: is to thank all three of you for your roles

594
00:32:23,200 --> 00:32:25,680
Speaker 6: in helping me with the series. Like overtime, all three

595
00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:27,320
Speaker 6: of you had a hand in it, and I appreciate

596
00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:30,120
Speaker 6: it big time. So thank you. That's off to all

597
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:30,920
Speaker 6: three of you as well.

598
00:32:32,000 --> 00:32:33,640
Speaker 4: We were excited to hear it.

599
00:32:34,200 --> 00:32:37,760
Speaker 6: I was too. It finally came out. But the whole

600
00:32:37,760 --> 00:32:41,800
Speaker 6: thing started, as you probably know, just from this kind

601
00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 6: of intellectual curiosity about it, Like I ran across Nick

602
00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:47,640
Speaker 6: Bostro many years ago and read some of his papers

603
00:32:48,080 --> 00:32:51,720
Speaker 6: and I just found it fascinating and I still find

604
00:32:51,720 --> 00:32:54,360
Speaker 6: it fascinating. So the original point of the series was

605
00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:57,040
Speaker 6: to say, hey, everybody, check this out, and that's the

606
00:32:57,040 --> 00:32:59,840
Speaker 6: coolest thing you've ever heard in your life. And as

607
00:32:59,880 --> 00:33:01,920
Speaker 6: I dug into it more and more and started to

608
00:33:01,960 --> 00:33:05,320
Speaker 6: actually interview the people involved, like Nick Bostrom and Toby

609
00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:07,760
Speaker 6: or and other people at the Future of Humanity Institute,

610
00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:10,920
Speaker 6: I realized, oh wait, this isn't this isn't just an

611
00:33:10,920 --> 00:33:14,240
Speaker 6: intellectual pursuit. These people are doing like they're actually trying

612
00:33:14,280 --> 00:33:17,320
Speaker 6: to warn the world like this is real, Like wait, wait, wait,

613
00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:22,360
Speaker 6: wait what this is real? And the the I underwent

614
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:24,880
Speaker 6: a conversion, and then so too did the series because

615
00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:26,760
Speaker 6: I was still working on the series at the time,

616
00:33:27,160 --> 00:33:30,880
Speaker 6: and there was a huge tone shift in the series.

617
00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:37,000
Speaker 6: It went from straight basically like a very dry book

618
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:40,280
Speaker 6: report to Okay, we need to do something, everybody, and

619
00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:43,400
Speaker 6: this kind of thread of we need to form a movement,

620
00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:47,120
Speaker 6: we need to start doing something emerged in the series

621
00:33:47,160 --> 00:33:50,320
Speaker 6: and took on almost became like a character in the series,

622
00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:54,000
Speaker 6: or certainly a theme, a major theme. So it was

623
00:33:54,040 --> 00:33:57,720
Speaker 6: originally intellectual interest that brought me to it, and then

624
00:33:58,320 --> 00:34:00,800
Speaker 6: I kind of got struck by life on the way

625
00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:03,360
Speaker 6: to finishing and it changed the tone big time.

626
00:34:03,880 --> 00:34:06,320
Speaker 4: I'll tell you what made me want to put my

627
00:34:06,520 --> 00:34:09,920
Speaker 4: phone down and join up the movement. And it was

628
00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:11,920
Speaker 4: in one of the episodes where you talk about a

629
00:34:11,920 --> 00:34:15,640
Speaker 4: certain three and a million chants that occurred in the

630
00:34:15,719 --> 00:34:16,480
Speaker 4: nineteen forties.

631
00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:17,320
Speaker 6: Isn't that fascinating?

632
00:34:17,360 --> 00:34:18,960
Speaker 4: Can you tell us a little bit of that story.

633
00:34:19,200 --> 00:34:24,279
Speaker 6: Yeah, So, what's widely seen as the first human made

634
00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:27,520
Speaker 6: existential risk that we've ever faced was the first detonation

635
00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:30,760
Speaker 6: of an atomic bomb at the Trinity Test on July sixteenth,

636
00:34:30,840 --> 00:34:37,680
Speaker 6: nineteen forty five, in Almagordo, New Mexico, USA. And it

637
00:34:37,760 --> 00:34:40,480
Speaker 6: wasn't that they were saying, yes, this think's going to

638
00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:43,319
Speaker 6: be a deadly weapon, this is an existential risk. A

639
00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:45,120
Speaker 6: lot of people make the case and I kind of

640
00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:48,319
Speaker 6: subscribe to it too, that the nuclear bomb has never

641
00:34:48,360 --> 00:34:52,800
Speaker 6: been an existential threat to humanity like nuclear war, I

642
00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:55,920
Speaker 6: should say, has never actually been because we can't we

643
00:34:56,239 --> 00:34:59,919
Speaker 6: probably couldn't wipe all of humanity out. And again, that's

644
00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:03,759
Speaker 6: the thing that separates existential risks from all other types

645
00:35:03,800 --> 00:35:06,560
Speaker 6: of risk. Everything else, we have a chance to rebuild,

646
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:08,920
Speaker 6: we have a chance to learn from that mistake. With

647
00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:12,520
Speaker 6: existential risks, there's no second chances, there's no do over.

648
00:35:12,880 --> 00:35:17,600
Speaker 6: One thing. One thing goes wrong, that's it for everybody, right, and.

649
00:35:17,560 --> 00:35:19,560
Speaker 4: The first t Yeah, So the nuclear bomb, just to

650
00:35:19,680 --> 00:35:22,960
Speaker 4: say this, the nuclear bomb was not the existential risk. Again,

651
00:35:23,280 --> 00:35:27,720
Speaker 4: was not officially that part wasn't the existential risk, right.

652
00:35:27,880 --> 00:35:31,399
Speaker 6: It was the detonation that conceivably posed an existential risk.

653
00:35:31,600 --> 00:35:33,960
Speaker 6: I should say it was the first possible human made

654
00:35:33,960 --> 00:35:37,680
Speaker 6: existential risk. And the reason it was is they were

655
00:35:37,680 --> 00:35:40,840
Speaker 6: sitting around the dudes at the Manhattan Project, and I

656
00:35:40,840 --> 00:35:43,200
Speaker 6: think it was Edward Teller. This is like the first

657
00:35:43,200 --> 00:35:45,319
Speaker 6: time they all formally met, and Edward Teller was like, hey,

658
00:35:45,400 --> 00:35:49,440
Speaker 6: has anybody thought might we accidentally ignite the atmosphere with

659
00:35:49,480 --> 00:35:51,360
Speaker 6: this thing? You know, we're about to dump a massive

660
00:35:51,400 --> 00:35:54,080
Speaker 6: amount of energy into the atmosphere. It could set off

661
00:35:54,120 --> 00:35:57,880
Speaker 6: a chain reaction, don't you're thinking. I've read different accounts

662
00:35:57,920 --> 00:36:02,680
Speaker 6: of it. Some people say that it was immediately shouted

663
00:36:02,719 --> 00:36:04,880
Speaker 6: down and they all realized, no, it's fine, it's fine, whatever,

664
00:36:05,120 --> 00:36:07,879
Speaker 6: and then somebody ended up telling Arthur Compton, and Arthur

665
00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:10,000
Speaker 6: Compton was like, oh, fiddlesticks, like, we need to do

666
00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:12,719
Speaker 6: some of them about this, and he assigned Teller and

667
00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:14,680
Speaker 6: a couple of other guys to go figure out whether

668
00:36:14,719 --> 00:36:19,000
Speaker 6: it was possible. So, depending on what story you hear,

669
00:36:19,120 --> 00:36:21,520
Speaker 6: either it was like this great, like, guys, we got

670
00:36:21,520 --> 00:36:23,200
Speaker 6: to get to the bottom of this, or it was

671
00:36:23,280 --> 00:36:26,399
Speaker 6: kind of like a side project. But either way, they

672
00:36:26,480 --> 00:36:30,640
Speaker 6: definitely assigned Teller and a small group to go figure out,

673
00:36:30,880 --> 00:36:33,680
Speaker 6: you know, mathematically, if that was possible.

674
00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:36,879
Speaker 4: And just to be clear, we're talking about the entire atmosphere,

675
00:36:36,880 --> 00:36:41,120
Speaker 4: not just a section of atmosphere, the Earth's entire atmosphere.

676
00:36:40,760 --> 00:36:41,960
Speaker 7: Chain reaction, essentially.

677
00:36:42,120 --> 00:36:45,839
Speaker 6: That was the fear that when they set off this

678
00:36:45,880 --> 00:36:47,759
Speaker 6: first atomic bomb, because no one had ever set off

679
00:36:47,800 --> 00:36:49,840
Speaker 6: an atomic bomb before, it wasn't even at the time

680
00:36:50,800 --> 00:36:53,279
Speaker 6: known whether it was possible. There was still a chance

681
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:56,280
Speaker 6: that it was going to be an impossibility to create

682
00:36:56,560 --> 00:37:00,600
Speaker 6: a nuclear explosion. But they were saying, if we do

683
00:37:00,600 --> 00:37:02,440
Speaker 6: do this, I mean like, if we started a chain

684
00:37:02,480 --> 00:37:05,120
Speaker 6: reaction in the atmosphere, it could spread and burn off

685
00:37:05,160 --> 00:37:07,719
Speaker 6: the entire atmosphere on Earth, and then life would just

686
00:37:07,760 --> 00:37:10,840
Speaker 6: cease to exist in very short order. So they started

687
00:37:10,840 --> 00:37:15,279
Speaker 6: to study this, and they came back and said, there

688
00:37:15,320 --> 00:37:17,840
Speaker 6: is a almost no chance that this is going to happen,

689
00:37:18,360 --> 00:37:22,560
Speaker 6: even even accounting for energy way beyond what we're going

690
00:37:22,600 --> 00:37:26,360
Speaker 6: to be doing with the bomb, where it's not going

691
00:37:26,440 --> 00:37:31,160
Speaker 6: to happen. But these guys are physicists, and physicists don't

692
00:37:31,239 --> 00:37:35,919
Speaker 6: deal in certainty, they deal in probability, and so there

693
00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:41,600
Speaker 6: was still that small, small chance that they could accidentally

694
00:37:41,640 --> 00:37:45,600
Speaker 6: ignite the atmosphere with this. So later on years later,

695
00:37:46,440 --> 00:37:48,480
Speaker 6: they went ahead with the test. They decided that the

696
00:37:48,520 --> 00:37:51,320
Speaker 6: possibility was small enough that it was worth taking the

697
00:37:51,440 --> 00:37:55,160
Speaker 6: risk because at the time, the Nazis were still going strong,

698
00:37:55,239 --> 00:37:57,920
Speaker 6: and they were like, this is this is worth you know,

699
00:37:58,239 --> 00:38:01,080
Speaker 6: the small chance that we're going to nite the atmosphere

700
00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:05,239
Speaker 6: is worth, you know, taking over the Nazis with this

701
00:38:05,280 --> 00:38:07,680
Speaker 6: bomb that we're going to produce from this test eventually.

702
00:38:09,600 --> 00:38:12,600
Speaker 6: But the years later, the guy who was running the

703
00:38:12,640 --> 00:38:15,200
Speaker 6: Manhattan Project at the time, his name was Arthur Compton.

704
00:38:15,800 --> 00:38:18,799
Speaker 6: He told the writer Pearl Buck about this story and

705
00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:21,080
Speaker 6: he said, I drew a line in the sand. I

706
00:38:21,120 --> 00:38:22,880
Speaker 6: said that if there was a three and a million

707
00:38:23,000 --> 00:38:26,319
Speaker 6: chants of igniting the atmosphere, we wouldn't go through with

708
00:38:26,360 --> 00:38:29,200
Speaker 6: the test. And so over the years some people have

709
00:38:29,280 --> 00:38:32,080
Speaker 6: been like, was it one in a million? Did he misspeak?

710
00:38:32,239 --> 00:38:35,799
Speaker 6: Like was there any chance whatsoever? But that was supposedly

711
00:38:35,880 --> 00:38:38,879
Speaker 6: the way that we handled the first existential risk, which

712
00:38:38,960 --> 00:38:41,239
Speaker 6: in a lot of ways was like great, you know,

713
00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:43,839
Speaker 6: hats off, Like they took it seriously, they studied it,

714
00:38:44,960 --> 00:38:48,560
Speaker 6: they did the math, they carried the one and all

715
00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:51,200
Speaker 6: that stuff right. But then if you step back and

716
00:38:51,239 --> 00:38:55,600
Speaker 6: look at it another way, that they decided for the

717
00:38:55,640 --> 00:38:57,799
Speaker 6: rest of the people alive on Earth at the time

718
00:38:57,920 --> 00:39:02,800
Speaker 6: that this three and a million chances was worth it.

719
00:39:02,800 --> 00:39:05,879
Speaker 6: It was worth the risk. And I'm sure there's plenty

720
00:39:05,880 --> 00:39:08,160
Speaker 6: of people still alive today and who would have been

721
00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:10,919
Speaker 6: alive back then who would have said, no, no, it's

722
00:39:10,960 --> 00:39:13,120
Speaker 6: actually not worth that risk. Three in a million is

723
00:39:13,160 --> 00:39:15,719
Speaker 6: actually not that remote of a chance. Like you have

724
00:39:15,760 --> 00:39:18,440
Speaker 6: a one in a million chance of being struck by

725
00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:21,000
Speaker 6: lightning if you live in North America. I can't remember

726
00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:23,319
Speaker 6: if it's any given year or your lifetime, but a

727
00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:26,160
Speaker 6: one in million, this is a three times greater chance

728
00:39:26,200 --> 00:39:28,319
Speaker 6: of being struck by lightning that they were going to

729
00:39:28,360 --> 00:39:31,560
Speaker 6: ignite the atmosphere. And so if you kind of look

730
00:39:31,600 --> 00:39:36,279
Speaker 6: at the probability compared to other probabilities, it suddenly made

731
00:39:36,280 --> 00:39:38,600
Speaker 6: it seem like maybe that wasn't such a good idea

732
00:39:38,640 --> 00:39:41,160
Speaker 6: to carry out the test anyway, And so I kind

733
00:39:41,160 --> 00:39:45,839
Speaker 6: of used that in I think episode nine as kind

734
00:39:45,840 --> 00:39:49,040
Speaker 6: of this teaching example, like it gives us a model

735
00:39:49,080 --> 00:39:52,719
Speaker 6: of how to approach existential risks, but it also shows

736
00:39:52,800 --> 00:39:54,759
Speaker 6: us what not to do, and that's not to have

737
00:39:54,880 --> 00:39:59,400
Speaker 6: just a small cadre of people working in secret to

738
00:39:59,440 --> 00:40:02,320
Speaker 6: decide for the the rest of the world without any input,

739
00:40:03,080 --> 00:40:05,799
Speaker 6: whether something's worth the risk or not. And That's one

740
00:40:05,840 --> 00:40:08,080
Speaker 6: of the reasons why we all need to be involved.

741
00:40:08,239 --> 00:40:11,520
Speaker 6: Why Dave, everyman from Manitoba needs to be involved, while

742
00:40:11,560 --> 00:40:13,160
Speaker 6: you guys need to be involved. Why I need to

743
00:40:13,160 --> 00:40:16,360
Speaker 6: be involved, Because again, there's no one at the top

744
00:40:17,560 --> 00:40:19,920
Speaker 6: thinking about this stuff, and it's going to take a

745
00:40:19,960 --> 00:40:22,760
Speaker 6: bottom up process. But for us to do it correctly,

746
00:40:22,840 --> 00:40:24,359
Speaker 6: for us not to just be like I don't think

747
00:40:24,400 --> 00:40:26,680
Speaker 6: it's worth the risk. We all need to understand the

748
00:40:26,719 --> 00:40:29,200
Speaker 6: science behind all this stuff. We need to be informed.

749
00:40:29,840 --> 00:40:31,840
Speaker 6: So we need to if we're going to decide together,

750
00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:34,759
Speaker 6: it has to be a smart decision, you know, And

751
00:40:34,800 --> 00:40:38,120
Speaker 6: we have to convert that death cult into the thinking

752
00:40:38,800 --> 00:40:43,759
Speaker 6: cult to take on existential risks because basically everybody needs

753
00:40:43,800 --> 00:40:45,560
Speaker 6: to be on board, and at the very least the

754
00:40:45,600 --> 00:40:47,120
Speaker 6: people who aren't on board need to get out of

755
00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:49,759
Speaker 6: the way and not work counter to the stuff that

756
00:40:50,160 --> 00:40:51,480
Speaker 6: everyone else is trying to do.

757
00:40:51,960 --> 00:40:55,279
Speaker 1: You know, I got to be honest, that was incredibly

758
00:40:55,320 --> 00:40:58,200
Speaker 1: well said, and I kind of felt music swelling. I

759
00:40:58,200 --> 00:41:00,960
Speaker 1: don't know if Paul's going to put it in when

760
00:41:01,040 --> 00:41:02,560
Speaker 1: we do this in post.

761
00:41:02,920 --> 00:41:05,359
Speaker 7: But it does. It does lead us to.

762
00:41:07,239 --> 00:41:12,160
Speaker 1: Some questions that naturally follow, one of which being we're

763
00:41:12,200 --> 00:41:15,960
Speaker 1: talking about becoming more educated, becoming more aware of a situation,

764
00:41:16,040 --> 00:41:19,480
Speaker 1: becoming less apathetic, realizing that there's no one truly in

765
00:41:19,520 --> 00:41:23,640
Speaker 1: a room at the top. Right, But what do those

766
00:41:23,880 --> 00:41:28,360
Speaker 1: next steps look like? What are the specific concrete things

767
00:41:28,400 --> 00:41:31,120
Speaker 1: other than of course checking out the show?

768
00:41:31,800 --> 00:41:37,520
Speaker 6: Right, Thanks for that, dude. So the first step that

769
00:41:37,600 --> 00:41:40,200
Speaker 6: we have to take those of us alive today is

770
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:43,480
Speaker 6: to start talking about this kind of stuff. Like the

771
00:41:43,560 --> 00:41:46,040
Speaker 6: more people talk about things, and I use the example

772
00:41:46,080 --> 00:41:49,320
Speaker 6: of like the environmental movement, Like the environmental movement today

773
00:41:49,400 --> 00:41:52,600
Speaker 6: has a lot left to do, a lot of work

774
00:41:52,640 --> 00:41:54,520
Speaker 6: left to do, and who knows, maybe this kind of

775
00:41:54,520 --> 00:41:57,480
Speaker 6: twelve year timeline that we've been given recently will we'll

776
00:41:57,480 --> 00:42:00,560
Speaker 6: get people going a lot more seriously on climate change.

777
00:42:00,719 --> 00:42:04,239
Speaker 6: But the fact is there is an environmental movement. There

778
00:42:04,239 --> 00:42:08,000
Speaker 6: didn't used to be. Just in the sixties, the late

779
00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:10,920
Speaker 6: sixties even there was basically no such thing as the

780
00:42:11,000 --> 00:42:14,719
Speaker 6: environmental movement. Now, every eight year old can tell you

781
00:42:15,280 --> 00:42:18,520
Speaker 6: tons of environmental facts, cares about the environment, knows what

782
00:42:18,560 --> 00:42:22,640
Speaker 6: they can do to to make the earth a better place.

783
00:42:24,000 --> 00:42:26,080
Speaker 6: We need to do the same thing with existential risks.

784
00:42:26,080 --> 00:42:29,000
Speaker 6: So step one is for everybody to make this an issue.

785
00:42:29,400 --> 00:42:32,239
Speaker 6: When all of us start talking about things like this,

786
00:42:32,719 --> 00:42:35,279
Speaker 6: the people who we elect start paying attention. It's like, oh,

787
00:42:35,280 --> 00:42:37,240
Speaker 6: this is what these guys want. Okay, I'm on board.

788
00:42:37,360 --> 00:42:40,200
Speaker 6: It's not like they're necessarily opposed to what we're doing

789
00:42:40,200 --> 00:42:43,440
Speaker 6: by principle, it's just not enough of us are talking

790
00:42:43,600 --> 00:42:45,480
Speaker 6: about this kind of thing or that kind of thing

791
00:42:45,560 --> 00:42:48,480
Speaker 6: or whatever. So the more of us start start talking

792
00:42:48,480 --> 00:42:51,400
Speaker 6: about this, the more we're going to be able to

793
00:42:51,440 --> 00:42:54,880
Speaker 6: get movement on it. We also need to basically take

794
00:42:55,719 --> 00:42:59,600
Speaker 6: a lot of the scientific mental energy that we have

795
00:42:59,640 --> 00:43:02,600
Speaker 6: avail and a lot of the money that we put

796
00:43:02,640 --> 00:43:05,360
Speaker 6: towards science, and a lot of other stuff to divert

797
00:43:05,440 --> 00:43:11,600
Speaker 6: to thinking about existential risks, identifying existential risks, identifying best practices.

798
00:43:12,000 --> 00:43:13,879
Speaker 6: And then the next step is for those of us

799
00:43:13,880 --> 00:43:17,239
Speaker 6: alive today to say, Okay, what'd you guys come up with?

800
00:43:17,440 --> 00:43:20,560
Speaker 6: And then listen to them, not fight them, not say

801
00:43:20,600 --> 00:43:23,200
Speaker 6: that sounds kind of hard, We can't do it, because

802
00:43:23,719 --> 00:43:25,640
Speaker 6: what they come back to us with will be a

803
00:43:25,760 --> 00:43:29,160
Speaker 6: roadmap for surviving the next one hundred to two hundred

804
00:43:29,239 --> 00:43:33,480
Speaker 6: years as a species. Right, if we can just kind

805
00:43:33,520 --> 00:43:36,600
Speaker 6: of alter our brains just a little bit in those

806
00:43:36,680 --> 00:43:41,719
Speaker 6: relatively small ways, we will lay the groundwork for generations

807
00:43:41,719 --> 00:43:44,960
Speaker 6: to come to build on. But that's the key. Those

808
00:43:44,960 --> 00:43:47,719
Speaker 6: of us live today have to start now, or else

809
00:43:47,800 --> 00:43:50,360
Speaker 6: we're just going to hamstring the ones to come. And

810
00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:52,359
Speaker 6: in that sense, it really kind of bears a strong

811
00:43:52,400 --> 00:43:56,680
Speaker 6: resemblance to environmentalism as well. So it's basically environmentalism for

812
00:43:57,120 --> 00:44:00,680
Speaker 6: the human species is what we need to do. Start that.

813
00:44:01,200 --> 00:44:01,439
Speaker 7: Wow.

814
00:44:02,880 --> 00:44:06,759
Speaker 4: So everyone listening here, I would describe End of the

815
00:44:06,800 --> 00:44:11,120
Speaker 4: World as if Black Mirror and Cosmos had a baby

816
00:44:11,200 --> 00:44:13,880
Speaker 4: and then that baby made a podcast. And maybe that

817
00:44:13,920 --> 00:44:17,839
Speaker 4: can't make it. Yes, oh yes it can. But if

818
00:44:18,280 --> 00:44:20,879
Speaker 4: if that interests you as it did me, go check

819
00:44:20,880 --> 00:44:22,799
Speaker 4: it out right now. You can find the End of

820
00:44:22,840 --> 00:44:26,839
Speaker 4: the World on the iHeartRadio app. Is that the right

821
00:44:26,840 --> 00:44:29,400
Speaker 4: way to say it. I've never done this before. Somebody

822
00:44:29,480 --> 00:44:30,320
Speaker 4: want to do? You want to do it?

823
00:44:30,400 --> 00:44:30,600
Speaker 7: Josh?

824
00:44:30,719 --> 00:44:31,319
Speaker 4: You say where it is?

825
00:44:31,400 --> 00:44:34,520
Speaker 6: You can find it on Apple podcasts, the iHeartRadio app,

826
00:44:34,640 --> 00:44:36,920
Speaker 6: everywhere you listen to podcasts.

827
00:44:36,440 --> 00:44:38,399
Speaker 2: And not to mention, it's all there so you can

828
00:44:38,520 --> 00:44:41,440
Speaker 2: beg the whole thing. It's all there for your listening pleasures.

829
00:44:41,520 --> 00:44:44,560
Speaker 2: So all ten episodes. Yeah, and hats off to Paul too.

830
00:44:44,640 --> 00:44:48,080
Speaker 2: You know, he was the supervising producer on It All job.

831
00:44:48,280 --> 00:44:49,560
Speaker 2: Try to call him mission control.

832
00:44:51,040 --> 00:44:56,080
Speaker 1: Also, also tell us how you feel after checking out

833
00:44:56,120 --> 00:44:59,480
Speaker 1: the show. Tell us what really peaud your interest. Tell

834
00:44:59,560 --> 00:45:03,120
Speaker 1: us if you have responses you can you can write

835
00:45:03,200 --> 00:45:03,719
Speaker 1: to us.

836
00:45:03,800 --> 00:45:04,600
Speaker 7: You could write to endo.

837
00:45:04,680 --> 00:45:07,960
Speaker 1: The world on let's see Instagram, Twitter, all the hits,

838
00:45:08,280 --> 00:45:09,520
Speaker 1: all the internet hits.

839
00:45:09,320 --> 00:45:12,840
Speaker 6: Right mostly I'm on there's a there's a hashtag, yeah,

840
00:45:12,880 --> 00:45:14,759
Speaker 6: hashtag you got to make the too symbol of the

841
00:45:14,880 --> 00:45:18,879
Speaker 6: two fingers simple hashtag eot W Josh Clark is where

842
00:45:18,920 --> 00:45:21,399
Speaker 6: you'll find that all over social And then I'm at

843
00:45:21,480 --> 00:45:26,719
Speaker 6: Josh Clark on like Instagram and Twitter and Facebook. And

844
00:45:26,719 --> 00:45:29,320
Speaker 6: then there's like some EO t W Josh Clark stuff.

845
00:45:29,080 --> 00:45:32,600
Speaker 1: Too, And tell us, uh, tell us how you keep

846
00:45:32,600 --> 00:45:35,600
Speaker 1: your optimism after you listen to the show. I don't

847
00:45:35,600 --> 00:45:38,919
Speaker 1: want to spoil it too much because you should go

848
00:45:39,080 --> 00:45:39,680
Speaker 1: check it out.

849
00:45:40,680 --> 00:45:43,239
Speaker 4: So go ahead and find us again. We are conspiracy

850
00:45:43,320 --> 00:45:46,799
Speaker 4: stuff on most socials, or conspiracy stuff show on Instagram.

851
00:45:46,920 --> 00:45:49,200
Speaker 4: It just just tell us what you think this is.

852
00:45:49,200 --> 00:45:51,520
Speaker 4: This kind of stuff keeps me up at night, honestly,

853
00:45:51,640 --> 00:45:53,879
Speaker 4: and I don't know how you got through creating all

854
00:45:53,880 --> 00:45:57,000
Speaker 4: of this content, Josh, because I mean, just listening to

855
00:45:57,040 --> 00:46:02,080
Speaker 4: it and absorbing it as a listener gives you a

856
00:46:02,080 --> 00:46:04,000
Speaker 4: certain amount of dread and hope. And it's almost this

857
00:46:04,120 --> 00:46:08,840
Speaker 4: simultaneous like scared happy feeling. It's very strange, it's weird.

858
00:46:09,239 --> 00:46:11,640
Speaker 4: It's very strange, and you've just been immersed in it

859
00:46:11,680 --> 00:46:13,400
Speaker 4: and you're still here and you look you look to

860
00:46:13,440 --> 00:46:13,920
Speaker 4: be fine.

861
00:46:14,120 --> 00:46:15,000
Speaker 6: Oh, it's all show.

862
00:46:16,960 --> 00:46:19,960
Speaker 4: And that's the end of this classic episode. If you

863
00:46:20,040 --> 00:46:24,120
Speaker 4: have any thoughts or questions about this episode, you can

864
00:46:24,120 --> 00:46:26,720
Speaker 4: get into contact with us in a number of different ways.

865
00:46:26,920 --> 00:46:28,480
Speaker 4: One of the best is to give us a call.

866
00:46:28,520 --> 00:46:32,680
Speaker 4: Our number is one eight three three st d wy TK.

867
00:46:33,160 --> 00:46:34,960
Speaker 4: If you don't want to do that, you can send

868
00:46:35,000 --> 00:46:36,440
Speaker 4: us a good old fashioned email.

869
00:46:36,680 --> 00:46:40,799
Speaker 5: We are conspiracy at iHeartRadio dot com.

870
00:46:40,960 --> 00:46:43,040
Speaker 4: Stuff they don't want you to know is a production

871
00:46:43,160 --> 00:46:47,680
Speaker 4: of iHeartRadio. For more podcasts from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app,

872
00:46:47,760 --> 00:46:50,640
Speaker 4: Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows.