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Speaker 1: net in West Virginia. All right, welcome to hoops To Night,
Speaker 1: presented by FanDuel here at the volume. Happy Monday, everybody.
Speaker 1: We are live on AMP. I hope all of you
Speaker 1: guys enjoy your holiday weekend, that you've got some time
Speaker 1: to relax and enjoy some good food and some time
Speaker 1: with friends and family. I was joking with my wife
Speaker 1: this morning. I love the holidays mainly because I value
Speaker 1: quality time with people more than just about anything else
Speaker 1: in my life. And so when you get to slow
Speaker 1: down and spend some time with friends and family, especially
Speaker 1: friends and family that are out of town, that come
Speaker 1: back to town for the holidays. That's just time that
Speaker 1: I value a great deal. But it's funny how as
Speaker 1: you get older it gets to be so much work.
Speaker 1: Because when you're younger, it's just like you and your
Speaker 1: immediate family. But then like you get into a relationship,
Speaker 1: and now it's your family and her family, and then
Speaker 1: the two of you become part of a group of friends,
Speaker 1: and now you have friends giving and friends Christmas and
Speaker 1: all these kinds of things. And then her parents are
Speaker 1: also separated, so like we have events with her mom's
Speaker 1: side of the family and events with her dad's side
Speaker 1: of the family. We even her family has really close siblings,
Speaker 1: so we'll spend like a sibling's Christmas and his siblings Thanksgiving,
Speaker 1: And next thing you know, you've got like a half
Speaker 1: dozen events surrounding each of these holidays. And here I
Speaker 1: am on Monday morning, after five consecutive days off, and
Speaker 1: I'm strangely exhausted. And you know how it goes. You're
Speaker 1: always having to bring food, like you're prepping dishes, you're
Speaker 1: if you're hosting, you're prepping multiple dishes. There's clean up,
Speaker 1: you're cleaning up when you go to events. You're cleaning
Speaker 1: up when you're hosting events, it's just a lot of work. Again,
Speaker 1: totally worth it, and I enjoyed a great deal, but man,
Speaker 1: I am strangely exhausted for a Monday morning. I am
Speaker 1: excited to be back to talking about basketball, though, something
Speaker 1: we haven't done since last week. On Tuesday, we're gonna
Speaker 1: be here's the schedule for today and for the rest
Speaker 1: of the week. So today we're gonna hit on four teams.
Speaker 1: Are two biggest fan bases for the show, which is
Speaker 1: Lakers and Warriors, who are both on winning streaks, so
Speaker 1: we're gonna dive into them a little bit. And then
Speaker 1: we're gonna hit two additional Western Conference teams that we
Speaker 1: haven't talked about in a little while, the Denver Nuggets
Speaker 1: and the Dallas Mavericks, who have lost four games in
Speaker 1: a row and earn a little bit of a tail spence.
Speaker 1: So we're gonna be focusing on those four teams today
Speaker 1: and then tomorrow we're going live on YouTube after the
Speaker 1: final buzzer of the Warriors and the Mavericks. Wednesday Double
Speaker 1: Live will be live after heat Celtics on AMP for
Speaker 1: the early slate, and then we'll be live I think
Speaker 1: the Lakers play I can't. I think it's the Blazers.
Speaker 1: The Lakers play the Blazers on Wednesday night. We'll be
Speaker 1: live on YouTube after that game. Then Thursday live on
Speaker 1: AMP at six pm Easter, we'll have our bi weekly
Speaker 1: Power Ranker player rankings. We didn't do one last week
Speaker 1: because the holiday, but we're technically three weeks removed from
Speaker 1: our last player rankings list, so we'll be doing that,
Speaker 1: and then on Saturday morning, we'll have a YouTube video,
Speaker 1: So Friday's off. Saturday morning, we'll have a YouTube video
Speaker 1: that's breaking down Friday Nights Slate, which is absolutely insane.
Speaker 1: Tons of good games to talk about on Friday night
Speaker 1: that we will get to on Saturday. And you guys
Speaker 1: know the joke before we get started. If you guys
Speaker 1: are watching this on YouTube or on the podcast feed,
Speaker 1: don't forget that AMP is the very first place that
Speaker 1: you guys can get these breakdowns. Also, I'm gonna be
Speaker 1: referencing two videos today, some footage that I put together
Speaker 1: and put on my Twitter feed, so you're gonna want
Speaker 1: to follow me on Twitter at Underscore Jason Lts. You
Speaker 1: guys can see those videos that we reference. Again, we
Speaker 1: have some limitations on the footage that we can use
Speaker 1: on YouTube, so I've got to send you guys to
Speaker 1: Twitter for that. But on that note, let's talk some basketball.
Speaker 1: So let's start with the Warriors. They're back on track
Speaker 1: since the five game losing streak. They are eight and
Speaker 1: three in their last eleven games. Over that span, their
Speaker 1: sixth in offense, eighth in defense, and fourth and net rating.
Speaker 1: Steph Curry looks like a bona fide m v P candidate,
Speaker 1: averaging thirty seven and seven over this span on fifty
Speaker 1: shooting forty seven percent from three and seven percent from
Speaker 1: the line. Andrew Wiggins is playing like an all star.
Speaker 1: Twenty one points and five rebounds on fifty three percent
Speaker 1: from the floor at percent from three. Clay Thompson, whatever
Speaker 1: you slump you're worried about to start the year, that's
Speaker 1: over this eleven game stretch, he's averaging twenty on from
Speaker 1: three on ten three point attempts. Clay is fine. And
Speaker 1: then Draymond Green over this span has been amazing on
Speaker 1: the defensive end, but also on the offensive and creating
Speaker 1: stuff in their offense. We're gonna get to it because
Speaker 1: if I'm in a reference of video that I put
Speaker 1: together of their offense in the first quarter against Minnesota,
Speaker 1: and Draymond was incredible in that sequence. During this eleven
Speaker 1: game span, he's averaging nine assists to just two turnovers.
Speaker 1: In Jordan Pool has been fine as well. He's averaging
Speaker 1: sixteen points per game on from the field. The offense
Speaker 1: was clicking at an insanely high level against Minnesota. In
Speaker 1: that first quarter they had a one sixty eight offensive rating. Now,
Speaker 1: with Minnesota's defense in particular, this is a bad matchup.
Speaker 1: You know. One of the things I talked about a
Speaker 1: lot when they made the Gobert trade is that when
Speaker 1: they could functionally run drop coverage, they'll be tough to beat.
Speaker 1: So there will be matchups where they have success when
Speaker 1: they can really pack the paint. But teams that have
Speaker 1: good pull up shooting and teams that are really good
Speaker 1: at spacing you out and driving and kicking are going
Speaker 1: to give the Timberwolves problems all season long. Why because
Speaker 1: Rudy Gobert's defensive value is somewhat limited if he's taken
Speaker 1: away from the basket, because he can't cover for his
Speaker 1: teammates when he's away from the rim. And then on
Speaker 1: the perimeter. They lost a good chunk of perimeter defense,
Speaker 1: so they don't quite have the mobility to hang with
Speaker 1: really good driving kick teams. Now the Warriors aren't really
Speaker 1: a driving kick team, but they functionally do a lot
Speaker 1: of similar things in the sense that they are spacing
Speaker 1: you five out with most of their sets, and the
Speaker 1: paint is usually unoccupied. You're forcing these guys to guard
Speaker 1: in space. And you know, Gobert actually wasn't that bad
Speaker 1: against the Warriors yesterday, but man Carl Town's was absolutely
Speaker 1: in the blender in that first quarter. And that was
Speaker 1: a big part of how Golden State had so much
Speaker 1: success in the first quarter. And you know what was
Speaker 1: interesting too, is it wasn't it wasn't like they were
Speaker 1: spamming in action. There was so much variety to the
Speaker 1: way the Warriors were cutting Minnesota to pieces with all
Speaker 1: of their with their sets. So there was a the
Speaker 1: you know, you had your typical Warriors split cut stuff
Speaker 1: where you know, post entry to Draymond on the left
Speaker 1: post and then Clay Thompson goes to screen for Steff,
Speaker 1: but instead Steph just cuts back door and he gets
Speaker 1: a wide open floater and makes it. They ran a
Speaker 1: version of Spain pick and roll where they had Clay
Speaker 1: Thompson and Draymond set two high screens at the three
Speaker 1: point line and as step was coming over the top,
Speaker 1: Clay relocated to the left side wing as Draymond was rolling,
Speaker 1: they kicked it to Clay. Clay pump faked shooter defender
Speaker 1: UH pursued past him and he drove to the basket
Speaker 1: and got a wide open look at a floater. There
Speaker 1: was your classic high pick and roll with Stephan Draymond
Speaker 1: where he hits Draymond on the short roll, quick drop
Speaker 1: off passage and Michael Green for verse layup. Then there
Speaker 1: was a play where Draymond Green did a fake drible
Speaker 1: handoff with Steph, got to the rim, bounced past to
Speaker 1: Jamichael Green dunk. There was the you know even later
Speaker 1: in the quarter as Minnesota started to adjust and send
Speaker 1: a defender over during that UH, during those Draymond Green
Speaker 1: short rolls, they just started kicking the shooters. There was
Speaker 1: a really nice play where Jordan Pool came over the
Speaker 1: over the screen and on the role Minnesota helped out
Speaker 1: of the corner. He just threw a rifle baseball pass
Speaker 1: that hit Dante DiVincenzo right in the shooting pocket in
Speaker 1: the right corner, and he made it three. Draymond was
Speaker 1: doing stuff in transition where he just pushed the ball
Speaker 1: off the floor and then like Clay Thompson would just
Speaker 1: cut back door and he hit him for a layup.
Speaker 1: It was vintage Warriors basketball. It was an offensive clinic
Speaker 1: and everything that we've grown accustomed to seeing from them
Speaker 1: over the course of the last couple of years. Now,
Speaker 1: the bench is still an issue. You know, they're getting
Speaker 1: outscored by eighteen point four points per one Hunter possessions
Speaker 1: the season when Steph is off the floor, But when
Speaker 1: they're starting lineup is that good? When they're absolutely obliterating
Speaker 1: teams with that lineup. They built themselves enough margin for
Speaker 1: error where that they can live through those bench issues.
Speaker 1: Like we saw what happened last night. They went to
Speaker 1: the bench. You know, Minnesota got it back to fourteen,
Speaker 1: you know got you know, they've made it look a
Speaker 1: little bit more competitive, but there was such a big
Speaker 1: gap there that it changes the tenor and tone of
Speaker 1: the game. Now it feels like a blowout and as
Speaker 1: a result, you know, Minnesota it doesn't defend quite as hard.
Speaker 1: They jack up some bad shots and things just kind
Speaker 1: of stay at arms distance. That was an arms distance
Speaker 1: game where Golden State was never truly threatened. And that's
Speaker 1: what happens when you have the best starting lineup in
Speaker 1: basketball and forget out starting line up. That lineup is
Speaker 1: the best lineup in basketball with uh, without any competition. UH.
Speaker 1: Their defense is getting better. I talked about how the
Speaker 1: starting lineup wasn't defending well enough during that losing streak. Well,
Speaker 1: their defensive rating is one of six point six with Curry, Clay, Draymond, Wiggins,
Speaker 1: and Luney on the floor over this um over this
Speaker 1: eleven game stretch, and they're outscoring teams. This is insane.
Speaker 1: That lineup Curry, Clay, Draymond, Wiggins, and Looney is outscoring
Speaker 1: teams during this eight and three stretch by thirty one
Speaker 1: points per one possessions. They're building leads so big that
Speaker 1: their benchy shoes are just irrelevant. This is how crazy
Speaker 1: this is. There are twenty two five man lineups in
Speaker 1: the NBA this year that I have have played at least
Speaker 1: one hundred minutes, and the Warriors starters are best by
Speaker 1: a mile. They have a plus twenty eight net rating
Speaker 1: for the season. There's only one other one of those lineups.
Speaker 1: Of those twenty two lineups, only one of them has
Speaker 1: a net rating over twenty. That's not the Warriors, and
Speaker 1: that's the Bucks. They're starters are plus twenty three, so
Speaker 1: they're five points better than the next best lineup. And
Speaker 1: then there's nobody else that's nearly as dominant as those
Speaker 1: two lineups. Don't look now, but the Warriors are five
Speaker 1: over five hundred and they're only three games back from
Speaker 1: first place in the West. This is what happens when
Speaker 1: the West is as wide open as it is. And
Speaker 1: you know what I what I kept talking about is
Speaker 1: like they're there are still conversations to have about young
Speaker 1: players and who you want to keep, who you want
Speaker 1: to trade, whether or not they need to target a
Speaker 1: specific type of player to bolster their bench, you know,
Speaker 1: different lineup configurations, who you play with. Who you know is,
Speaker 1: should James Wiseman have to play in the G League
Speaker 1: as a number two overall pick ers? That kind of
Speaker 1: unfair to him. There's a lot of like ancillary conversations
Speaker 1: to have about the Warriors, but their actual struggles, the
Speaker 1: struggles that had them three and seven at one point
Speaker 1: this season, those were solvable just by the starters playing better.
Speaker 1: They played great to start the season. They had a
Speaker 1: bad stretch and they went ohing five and they played
Speaker 1: great again, and all of a sudden, they started winning again.
Speaker 1: That group is so dominant that they can solve a
Speaker 1: lot of their problems, and by the Warriors time to
Speaker 1: figure out what they want to do with their bench.
Speaker 1: That lineup is why I have the Warriors as my
Speaker 1: championship favorite. That line up is why I never got
Speaker 1: scared for the Warriors as they were struggling, and that
Speaker 1: lineup is gonna be what carries them with their best
Speaker 1: chance of repeating this year. Also, Warriors fans, I forgot
Speaker 1: to mention this earlier, that whole first quarter offensive stretch
Speaker 1: that I was talking about. I broke down a bunch
Speaker 1: of plays from that sequence on my Twitter feed with
Speaker 1: actual footage. You can find out on my Twitter feed
Speaker 1: at underscore Jason lt. Don't forget to go check that out.
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about the Nuggets. So we haven't
Speaker 1: talked about them in a while. On the surface, things
Speaker 1: look somewhat underwhelming, right Like, they're twelve and seven, They're
Speaker 1: only six and four in their last ten. They're back
Speaker 1: at twenty fourth on defense, which is nowhere near good
Speaker 1: enough for a team that legitimately wants to contend. So
Speaker 1: you can be pessimistic about them, and that's a big
Speaker 1: part of why the Nuggets haven't really gotten a lot
Speaker 1: of talk this year. But guess what twelve and seven
Speaker 1: works as in today's NBA twelve and seven is the
Speaker 1: fifth best record in basketball. That's how wide opened the
Speaker 1: league is. When you get past the Celtics and Bucks,
Speaker 1: there's such a big drop off to everybody else, and
Speaker 1: everyone else is just kind of clustered up in there
Speaker 1: that you know. I mean, even the Lakers are three
Speaker 1: games back from sixth in the West or whatever it is.
Speaker 1: I can't that was what it was as of yesterday.
Speaker 1: I'm not sure after last night's games, but they were
Speaker 1: kind of like right back up in the mix of things.
Speaker 1: And here you go, the Denver Nuggets. You're working Michael
Speaker 1: Porter Junior back from injury, You're working Jamal Murray back
Speaker 1: from injury, Nikola Yokich is stepping back into a smaller role.
Speaker 1: All this stuff is happening, and you're still the fifth
Speaker 1: best record in the league. That's how that's the glass
Speaker 1: half full way of looking at it, and even gets
Speaker 1: better because they're eleven and five when Yoket's plays. They
Speaker 1: dropped a couple of games recently when Yokis was out
Speaker 1: of the lineup with COVID, And you know, we were
Speaker 1: just talking about those dominant lineups, right. So I've got
Speaker 1: the Warriors that are plus twenty eight per one hundred possessions.
Speaker 1: I've got the buck Starters that are plus twenty three
Speaker 1: point hunter possessions. Well, guess who the third best lineup
Speaker 1: in basketball is. It's Nikkela Yogets, Jamal Murray k CP,
Speaker 1: Michael Porter Jr. And Aaron Gordon. Their plus seventeen point
Speaker 1: four net in a hundred and seventy two minutes this year,
Speaker 1: which is the third best in the league among lineups
Speaker 1: that have played at least a hundred minutes together. They're
Speaker 1: also dominating and crunch time. They're six and two in
Speaker 1: games where the score has been within five points with
Speaker 1: less than five minutes remaining, and uh in those crunch
Speaker 1: time situations, they have a plus twenty one net rating,
Speaker 1: which is the third best in the league and the
Speaker 1: best defense in the league and clutch situations, which is
Speaker 1: encouraging because what has been my theory all along. You know,
Speaker 1: the Nuggets are they're not defending as well as they can.
Speaker 1: Are they a top five defense? No, but they should
Speaker 1: be closer to fifteen. They're definitely capable of defending better
Speaker 1: than they have. They've added enough a talent on the wing,
Speaker 1: you know, over the course of the last couple of
Speaker 1: years with Aaron Gordon, I really like the Bruce Brown signing.
Speaker 1: Kentavius Callbo Pope, I think is a better UH defender
Speaker 1: than Will Barton. They have better defensive players, they just
Speaker 1: have to go out and show that. And what they're
Speaker 1: showing is in crunch time when they really lock in,
Speaker 1: they're getting a lot of stops. But I wanted to
Speaker 1: take some time to go one by one through the
Speaker 1: Denver Nuggets line up to talk about where they're succeeding
Speaker 1: this year. So for Yokis, his numbers are down across
Speaker 1: the board. He's only averaging twenty two points per game
Speaker 1: and ten rebounds this year, which is well below where
Speaker 1: he was last year. That also is going along with
Speaker 1: nine assists, but that's to be expected with the supporting
Speaker 1: cash changing last year. You know, with the type of
Speaker 1: talent he was playing with he had to be a
Speaker 1: lot more aggressive in post ups and isolations, and that's
Speaker 1: just not the case this year. It's a lot more
Speaker 1: in the flow of the offense. But he's still excelling
Speaker 1: in all of the usual ways in post ups one
Speaker 1: point one points per possession, counting passes sixty percentile, which
Speaker 1: is well above average. Right um. The inverted pick and roll,
Speaker 1: which I've always talked about, where basically Yokich runs a
Speaker 1: screen and roll with a guard as the screener as
Speaker 1: opposed to the reverse of that. I put a whole
Speaker 1: video of that together that you can find on my
Speaker 1: Twitter feed that kind of demonstrate the inverted Nicola yoke
Speaker 1: its pick and roll. It's usually Bruce Brown setting the
Speaker 1: screen because he has so much experience as a roll
Speaker 1: man from his time in Brooklyn. But they also do
Speaker 1: it a little bit with KCP. They do it with
Speaker 1: quite a bit with KCP, but they do it a
Speaker 1: little bit with Jamal Murray in a lot with Aaron
Speaker 1: Gordon as well. They always slip the screen. They're not
Speaker 1: really there to linger and make a physical play on
Speaker 1: the screen defender. They're just there too put a presence
Speaker 1: so the defender gets out of position and then they're
Speaker 1: slipping to the basket. Every single time from there, Yokis
Speaker 1: literally will will keep the dribble live and just wait
Speaker 1: for the defense to commit to one of the players,
Speaker 1: and there usually is a wide open player there because
Speaker 1: with Yokich, the screen defender is hedging on him usually
Speaker 1: and then the guy who's guarding him is following him
Speaker 1: in that screen. Now it's a four on three on
Speaker 1: the back line. Most of the time, that guy who's
Speaker 1: slipping to the basket ends up being wide open, and
Speaker 1: you're seeing a ton of easy layups for Bruce Brown
Speaker 1: and KCP at the basket because of what they're getting
Speaker 1: in that in that role situation. But if the screen
Speaker 1: defender stays with the slipping screener, Yokich will just continue
Speaker 1: to go downhill because now he has a driving lane
Speaker 1: because his defender got caught on the fake screen and
Speaker 1: now he's going downhill and no one can stop him
Speaker 1: because of how damn big he is. Inverted Yoki's pick
Speaker 1: and roll this year with him as the ball handler
Speaker 1: including passes, is scoring one point zero seven points per possession,
Speaker 1: which is in the seventy five percentile in the league. Again,
Speaker 1: you're gonna want to check that video out on Twitter.
Speaker 1: And then the Warriors offense stuff that I was talking about. Um,
Speaker 1: he still can't make a jump shot to save his life, really,
Speaker 1: but he's cut way back on attempts, kind of like
Speaker 1: what Anthony Davis did. He's attempting half as many threes
Speaker 1: as he did last year, but he's shooting just on them. Uh.
Speaker 1: Jamal Murray last ten games eighteen point four points per
Speaker 1: game and six assists. He scored twenty plus five times
Speaker 1: each day. He just looks a little bit more like
Speaker 1: himself in this ten game span. He's also shooting fort
Speaker 1: on ten pull up jumpers per game. If you guys
Speaker 1: remember the beginning of the season he was at around
Speaker 1: this last stretch, he's around forty three percent. Like I've
Speaker 1: been saying, I want to see him up around forty
Speaker 1: six percent. That's when you'll know he's really back to
Speaker 1: where he is. But he's clearly trending in that direction
Speaker 1: and that's good to see after his injury, to see
Speaker 1: him kind of getting back to what he was. Michael
Speaker 1: Porter Jr. Hundred one points in seventy seven spot of possessions,
Speaker 1: which ranks in percentile in the league. Aaron Gordon is
Speaker 1: the workhorse of this lineup. He's a monster on the
Speaker 1: offensive glass. He's averaging a career high two and a
Speaker 1: half offensive rebounds per game. He is excellent running the
Speaker 1: floor in transition. Uh he's been outstanding for them in
Speaker 1: the dunker spot in particular, So like he's not he's
Speaker 1: not having a good perimeter shooting season, and so they're
Speaker 1: they're sticking him in the dunker spot a lot, especially
Speaker 1: since Yokich is typically operating out of the top of
Speaker 1: the key, so it's not really causing spacing issues for them.
Speaker 1: And then he just does really he does a really
Speaker 1: nice job of relocating. Now, the way that dunker spot
Speaker 1: relocation works is when the ball is on your side
Speaker 1: of the floor, you have to go to the opposite block.
Speaker 1: You always want to be sitting outside the block on
Speaker 1: the side opposite of the ball handler. It just makes
Speaker 1: it so the defender has to leave you further to
Speaker 1: be in help, which creates an opening for you. Then
Speaker 1: as the ball crosses over the midline of the floor,
Speaker 1: you want to relocate to the other block, or if
Speaker 1: someone drives baseline, you want to relocate to like the
Speaker 1: charge circle, so kind of in front of the rim.
Speaker 1: So there's just some basic concepts of how to relocate
Speaker 1: when you're in that dunker spot. Aaron Gordon's got such
Speaker 1: a natural feel with Yokich already. He just knows how
Speaker 1: to find those openings and Yokis will just hit him
Speaker 1: with these baseball passes and then he's one of the
Speaker 1: best straight vert jumpers that we have in the league,
Speaker 1: so he can just elevate from wherever he catches and
Speaker 1: just dunk the basketball. And he's been extremely effective as
Speaker 1: a cutter out of the dunker spot as a result.
Speaker 1: The k CP was the last guy I wanted to
Speaker 1: talk about. He's one of my favorite players in the
Speaker 1: league from my time covering him with the Lakers. He's
Speaker 1: just a professional two guard. He's great defensive player, deadly
Speaker 1: three point shooter. He's having an outstanding three point shooting season.
Speaker 1: Great attacking close outs, and he's great in transition, whether
Speaker 1: that's running to the corner for threes or running to
Speaker 1: the front of the rim for layups and dunks. He
Speaker 1: scored eighty eight points on sixty three spot up possessions
Speaker 1: this year, which is in the nine percentile, and they
Speaker 1: haven't done it much, but he's been really good as
Speaker 1: a movement shooter this year. They've run nine plays for
Speaker 1: him running off of screens for shots, and he's knocked
Speaker 1: down seven of them. Um, he has a couple of
Speaker 1: the uh For Denver in particular, they have a couple
Speaker 1: of games coming up against Houston, but then their Denver
Speaker 1: or their December schedule schedule gets a lot tougher. And
Speaker 1: Houston in particular just won two games in a row
Speaker 1: against the Thunder, which is not an easy win, and
Speaker 1: against the Hawks, who are legit Eastern Conference playoff teams.
Speaker 1: So Houston's playing some decent basketball right now. So a
Speaker 1: couple of tougher games like what seemed to be easy games,
Speaker 1: but you don't want to sleep walk against Houston. It's
Speaker 1: just such a good physical matchup for Yokich that I
Speaker 1: expect them to win both those games. And then December
Speaker 1: gets a lot tougher, So we're gonna learn a lot
Speaker 1: about doubt Denver in the month of December. Alright, moving
Speaker 1: on to the Lakers. So, um here here's the way
Speaker 1: I want to do this for the Lakers. There's a
Speaker 1: optimistic glass half full way of looking at things. Then
Speaker 1: there's the pessimistic glass half empty way of looking at things,
Speaker 1: and then there's the reality, which is somewhere in the middle.
Speaker 1: And I'm gonna go through each of those. So here's
Speaker 1: the US have full way of looking at things. The
Speaker 1: Lakers are over five hundred since they're oh and five start,
Speaker 1: they are five and one in their last there are
Speaker 1: I've been one of their last six games. They are
Speaker 1: seven and six in their last thirteen games. In that
Speaker 1: thirteen game stretch, their twelfth in offense nineteenth and defense
Speaker 1: seventeenth and net rating. Anthony Davis's last five games thirty
Speaker 1: three and eighteen on sixty four percent shooting, three blocks
Speaker 1: and two steals. That's straight up m v P level production.
Speaker 1: He's also nineteen for forty two outside of the restricted area,
Speaker 1: which is great for two reasons. One, that's way more
Speaker 1: efficient than he had been in the last couple of years,
Speaker 1: and then it's low volume. You want Anthony Davis unless
Speaker 1: he's straight up Kevin Durant like he was in the bubble.
Speaker 1: You don't want him high volume outside the paint. You
Speaker 1: want him low volumes. So for for more than half
Speaker 1: of his shots to be in the restricted area, is
Speaker 1: a good thing. In forty eight of his nineties shots
Speaker 1: in this five game stretch have been in the restricted area.
Speaker 1: Lebron's last four games, remember what I said, starting with
Speaker 1: the Cleveland game. He was sick before that, and then
Speaker 1: he had the foot issue. Before that. I said the
Speaker 1: Cleveland game looked like he was more physically healthy. And
Speaker 1: since that stretch he's played four games. Obviously, got hurt
Speaker 1: somewhere in the middle, but in Lebron's last four games,
Speaker 1: starting with that Cleveland game, he's averaging twenty nine points,
Speaker 1: nine rebounds, and forces on from the field from three
Speaker 1: and seventy from the line. This is kind of one
Speaker 1: of the silver linings that come from injuries. And I
Speaker 1: tweeted this out when he first came back in that
Speaker 1: first game against the Spurs. Did I expect him to
Speaker 1: look in a percent good shape? No, of course, not,
Speaker 1: that takes time. Did I expect him to look a
Speaker 1: hundred percent and rhythm when it comes to his handle
Speaker 1: and just his overall field for the game. No, of course, not.
Speaker 1: That's gonna take time. But Lebron was in a bad
Speaker 1: shooting slump, one of the worst ones of this recent
Speaker 1: phase of his career. And one of the things that's
Speaker 1: nice about an injury like that is you don't want
Speaker 1: to sit on your butt. You want to stay active.
Speaker 1: So you're gonna you're gonna do things like cardio to
Speaker 1: try to keep your blood flowing, and you're gonna do
Speaker 1: some lifting. But you're not gonna play back skid ball
Speaker 1: right until while you're resting that. But you will shoot
Speaker 1: a ton of shots, because even with a growing injury,
Speaker 1: you can shoot stand still jump shots all day long.
Speaker 1: And I was expecting that Lebron would use that downtime
Speaker 1: to really hone in the details of his jump shot
Speaker 1: and get out of that slump. And that appears to
Speaker 1: be what happened. From three made seven of them, which
Speaker 1: is one shy of his career high. Uh in last
Speaker 1: night's game. All right, yeah, I was yesterday in the afternoon.
Speaker 1: So um. He's also having a sneaky great ISO season.
Speaker 1: He scored seventy six points on sixty seven ISOs this year,
Speaker 1: which is four percentile. He did a really nice job
Speaker 1: against the Spurs with like a basic combination and ISO
Speaker 1: of a jab step pull up and a jab and go.
Speaker 1: Now it's funny because you think is so at basketball
Speaker 1: you think a lot of like intense mixing up off
Speaker 1: the dribble and dribble combinations to get to step backs
Speaker 1: or turnarounds or you know, driving all the way to
Speaker 1: the rim and thinks along those lines. You think of
Speaker 1: a ton of variety. But you know what's funny is
Speaker 1: Lebron he has that stuff for the record, and you've
Speaker 1: see that when he's really in his groove. Like if
Speaker 1: if Lebron really gets back into form, you'll see really
Speaker 1: diverse shot making from him over the course of the season.
Speaker 1: But he's been effective in ISO this year with two
Speaker 1: moves a jab step jumper and a jab step to
Speaker 1: the rim driving, uh, just a rip through to the basket.
Speaker 1: And it's funny because that's been like the story of
Speaker 1: Lebron's career, simplicity and effectiveness over some of the aesthetic stuff.
Speaker 1: Although he is a lot more um you know, aesthetically
Speaker 1: polished than a lot of his detractors are willing to admit.
Speaker 1: But you know, the baseline of it is it's move
Speaker 1: counter move. You know, I talked about this with my
Speaker 1: high school kids that I train all the time. You know,
Speaker 1: as long as every move is built on an equally
Speaker 1: effective counter move. Then just those two things are enough
Speaker 1: to build an offensive foundation. So, for instance, I'm in
Speaker 1: a triple threat. You're guarding me if I am a
Speaker 1: legitimate to rip through to the right and go to
Speaker 1: the rim or ripped through to the left and go
Speaker 1: to the rim, and I'm also a legitimate threat to
Speaker 1: just jab and rise up and knock down a jump shot,
Speaker 1: I've put you in no man's land. Now you have
Speaker 1: to make a decision. If you play off of me
Speaker 1: to contain the drive, I'm gonna knock down this jab
Speaker 1: step jump shot. If you press up on me to
Speaker 1: take away the jab step jump shot, I'm two and
Speaker 1: sixty pounds and I'm six ft nine and if I
Speaker 1: ripped through, I'm getting past you. And it's just funny
Speaker 1: to see that kind of effectiveness because he's had a
Speaker 1: down season by almost every measure right, and yes, he's
Speaker 1: got his jumper going recently, but he's run sixty seven
Speaker 1: ISOs this year and he's been one of the best
Speaker 1: is A players in the league just based on two
Speaker 1: moves that have been effective for him and the fact
Speaker 1: that each move is the opposite of the other, forcing
Speaker 1: defenders to have to make a decision one way or another.
Speaker 1: Lonnie Walker has also been a great third option during
Speaker 1: this stretch. In this UM thirteen game stretch, he's averaging
Speaker 1: nineteen points on shooting all in saying is that that's
Speaker 1: like legit, like third star type of production. But here's
Speaker 1: the last half empty way of looking at things. The
Speaker 1: Lakers are five and oh against teams that are below
Speaker 1: five hundred, but there two and eleven against teams that
Speaker 1: are five hundred are better. A D has been beating
Speaker 1: up on pretty weak front lines. That's just a fact.
Speaker 1: He's been unbelievable, but he's beating up on pretty weak
Speaker 1: front lines. Three of their seven wins the season are
Speaker 1: against the Spurs, who are the worst team in the
Speaker 1: NBA in my opinion. Now again I'm being intentionally pessimistic there,
Speaker 1: but those are the two radical sides of it. So
Speaker 1: where's reality. The reality is the Lakers have two of
Speaker 1: the top ten players in the league, and to start
Speaker 1: the season, they both played well below their personal standards.
Speaker 1: Anthony Davis is playing more like a fifteen best player
Speaker 1: in the league. Lebron James was playing more like a
Speaker 1: fifteenth best player in the league. In their defense, A
Speaker 1: D was dealing with back spasms and Lebron was dealing
Speaker 1: with foot stuff and he got sick. But the fact
Speaker 1: remains they didn't play well to start the season. They
Speaker 1: were also playing any incredibly tough schedule to start the season,
Speaker 1: the toughest schedule in the league to start the skis
Speaker 1: this season that you're not gonna beat the best teams
Speaker 1: in the league, the good teams unless Lebron and Anthony
Speaker 1: Davis both played at the top of their ability because
Speaker 1: of the other limitations on the roster. So that was
Speaker 1: why they were struggling so much to start the year.
Speaker 1: Lebron and a D, you weren't good enough. Dominant schedule.
Speaker 1: Yeah they got a couple of wins. Yeah they beat
Speaker 1: the Nets, Yeah they beat the Pelicans, Yeah they beat
Speaker 1: the Nuggets. There's some quality wins in there. But for
Speaker 1: the most part, they struggled against that part of their
Speaker 1: schedule because Lebron and a D weren't good enough. Now
Speaker 1: the schedule is lightened up, Lebron and a D have
Speaker 1: it going. They both are playing really good basketball here
Speaker 1: in this last couple of weeks, and they've racked up
Speaker 1: some wins. But you know, and then also the role
Speaker 1: players are shooting better, although they're not still not shooting well.
Speaker 1: In this third team game stretch, the Lakers are and
Speaker 1: three pointers made per one possessions. But the schedule is
Speaker 1: about to get way tougher again, really starting right away,
Speaker 1: even these next two games and the month in November
Speaker 1: or against the Pacers and Blazers, who are both above
Speaker 1: five hundred, and then they have the toughest schedule in
Speaker 1: the league in December. In December, the Lakers play the Bucks,
Speaker 1: the Celtics, the Sixers, the Raptors, the Calves, the Nuggets,
Speaker 1: the Sons, the Kings, the MAVs, the Heat and the Hawks.
Speaker 1: So like, the reality is is even if Lebron in
Speaker 1: a d maintain this level of play, they'll hang in
Speaker 1: some of the They'll hang in all these games if
Speaker 1: they play like that, but their best case scenarios to
Speaker 1: maybe win half of them because of the talent limitations
Speaker 1: that they have. That's you know, when you are five
Speaker 1: and oh against teams that are below five hundred and
Speaker 1: you are two and eleven against teams that are above
Speaker 1: five hundred or or at five hundred, what that tells
Speaker 1: me is you have a talent issue. Because when you're
Speaker 1: five and oh against teams that are below five hundred.
Speaker 1: That means you're taking care of business. That means you
Speaker 1: are well coached, You bring effort every night, and you're
Speaker 1: making sure you don't lose games you're supposed to win,
Speaker 1: right But then they're bringing that same level of effort,
Speaker 1: although there was a couple the weeks there where they
Speaker 1: let the rope slip, particularly on defense, but for the
Speaker 1: most part in those other thirteen games, they're bringing consistent effort.
Speaker 1: They just don't have the horses to win those games,
Speaker 1: especially when Lebron and a D weren't playing as well
Speaker 1: as they were. But coming into this month of December,
Speaker 1: they'll be lucky to win half the games even if Lebron,
Speaker 1: James and Anthony Davis play really well because of the
Speaker 1: types of opponents that you're playing Bucks and Celtics. Lebron
Speaker 1: and a D could combine for seventy in both of
Speaker 1: those games and they probably will lose both. So there
Speaker 1: you go in two sixers. That's a tough one. Calves
Speaker 1: they're tough to beat right now, Nuggets, that's tough, the Suns.
Speaker 1: You know, these are all games that that the Lakers
Speaker 1: are gonna have a hard time winning even if Lebron
Speaker 1: James and Anthony Davis play well. Now that so it's
Speaker 1: clearly a talent issue. Now what's interesting there is you
Speaker 1: can kind of see the path that I'm starting to draw.
Speaker 1: Russ has not been great as of late, and he
Speaker 1: has not been a huge factor in their recent success.
Speaker 1: So the Lakers have won five of their last six.
Speaker 1: Right in at span, Russell Westbrook is averaging twelve points
Speaker 1: per game on thirty three percent shooting from three and
Speaker 1: from the free throw line. He is averaging nine assis
Speaker 1: per game, although with four turnovers. But the Lakers have
Speaker 1: lost his minutes and four of the six games, including
Speaker 1: games against really weak competition. So all signs continue to
Speaker 1: point towards Russell westbrook salary being the best vehicle with
Speaker 1: which to improve the roster um. So when I look
Speaker 1: at that and I see talent issue, schedule getting tougher,
Speaker 1: Lebron and a d looking great, Lakers won five out
Speaker 1: of six, Russ isn't really a part of that success.
Speaker 1: All signs screamed towards making the trade. But all of
Speaker 1: the intel that we've heard is pointing at the Lakers
Speaker 1: waiting until December to really make that decision. That date
Speaker 1: is the date that when players who signed deals during
Speaker 1: this last offseason become trade eligible, so theoretically they'll have
Speaker 1: some more options. But I haven't really seen anything get
Speaker 1: thrown out that's per picularly interesting to me. Dave mcmenanman
Speaker 1: um Dave mcmeneman excuse me from ESPN reported that the
Speaker 1: Lakers brass doesn't really see Buddy Yield and Miles Turner
Speaker 1: as players that will make their closing lineups, so they
Speaker 1: don't see the Indiana deal is very likely. I I
Speaker 1: tried really hard this morning to kind of see that
Speaker 1: point of view. I could potentially see that being true
Speaker 1: with healed right, Like, if you make that deal, you know,
Speaker 1: Turner a d Lebron, maybe you go with more versatile
Speaker 1: defensive players like Austin Reeves and Lonnie Walker instead of
Speaker 1: Buddy Yield, Like I could see it potentially, But Miles
Speaker 1: Turner would unquestionably be their third best player right now,
Speaker 1: and there's no way he wouldn't close, especially considering the
Speaker 1: way he's shooting the basketball and how good he is defensively.
Speaker 1: He's shooting a career high forty three on four three
Speaker 1: point attempts per game. And then he'ld shooting at the
Speaker 1: very least would give you an option to throw out
Speaker 1: in those situations. He's shooting in the high thirties on
Speaker 1: on over ten attempts per game from three right now. Um,
Speaker 1: he's been one of the best spot up players in
Speaker 1: the league on a per possession basis, and it gives
Speaker 1: you an option when players aren't playing well. So, for instance, yeah,
Speaker 1: like you have these three guys Troy Brown Jr. Ostin Reeves,
Speaker 1: and Lonnie Walker that are playing pretty damn good basketball
Speaker 1: and have been getting a lot of minutes for the Lakers.
Speaker 1: But they're young. And what happens with young basketball players.
Speaker 1: Young basketball players are prone to bad nights, Like there
Speaker 1: are going to be nights where Lonnie Walker just doesn't
Speaker 1: have it. Jumpers not falling, his head's not focused on
Speaker 1: the defensive end of the four, nothing's going. You're not
Speaker 1: gonna stick him in the closing lineup and on that
Speaker 1: type of night because young players have a hard time
Speaker 1: shedding their mistakes and staying focused on the next play.
Speaker 1: That's that's not a Lonnie Walker thing, that's an all
Speaker 1: young players thing. But it'd be nice on a night
Speaker 1: where maybe Lonnie Walker doesn't have it to be like,
Speaker 1: you know, Buddy Yields a better option, or on nights
Speaker 1: where Buddy Yield is defending really well, or the matchups
Speaker 1: with your opponent dictate that Buddy is playable and crunch time,
Speaker 1: now you can have that as an option. A legitimate
Speaker 1: shooter on the offensive end, and who's killing you on
Speaker 1: the defensive end. Right, So I'm getting a Miles Turner
Speaker 1: who would have far and away be the third best
Speaker 1: player on the team, and then a legitimate backcourt threat
Speaker 1: that I could play in crunch time depending on the matchup.
Speaker 1: You know, and like look like, would I prefer a wing? Yeah,
Speaker 1: so would every Lakers fan, So would every reasonable basketball
Speaker 1: mind in the world. If you're looking to bolster your
Speaker 1: team and you can choose between a center which is
Speaker 1: somewhat matchup dependent, and a guard which is somewhat matchup dependent,
Speaker 1: or a versatile wing, all of us, for all of
Speaker 1: our teams are picking a wing. But I haven't seen
Speaker 1: a single wing thrown out in one of these deals,
Speaker 1: these potential deals that is nearly as good as Miles Turner,
Speaker 1: at least not a uh not at least not a
Speaker 1: realistic one. I've heard you know, O g Na Nobi
Speaker 1: get thrown out. Why would the Raptors give O g
Speaker 1: Na Nobi to the Lakers. What could the Lakers offer
Speaker 1: that would legitimately entice them to make a move like that.
Speaker 1: If so, then yeah, by all means, go get O
Speaker 1: g Na Nobi. But I haven't seen a realistic wing
Speaker 1: centered trade that has any player that's nearly as good
Speaker 1: as Miles Turner is right now, and so just by
Speaker 1: the by the sheer talent influx, to me, that still
Speaker 1: looks like the best deal. Like I like Boyan mcdonovitch.
Speaker 1: It was a name that I talked about a lot
Speaker 1: this summer, but I liked it as part of a
Speaker 1: larger jazz package that also would have brought back maybe
Speaker 1: an extra wing like a Rudy Gay or a great
Speaker 1: shooter like a Malik Beasley. I don't necessarily like the
Speaker 1: idea of Boyan Pagdanovitch targeted from the Pistons right now
Speaker 1: and using picks for just him. Right with Miles Turner,
Speaker 1: you get a legitimate backcourt threat and a great center
Speaker 1: that will slot really nicely alongside Lebron James and Anthony
Speaker 1: Davis significantly improve your defense and increase the talent on
Speaker 1: the team, But most importantly, waiting until December fift with
Speaker 1: the type of schedule they have, puts the Lakers at
Speaker 1: significant risk to lose all of this ground that they
Speaker 1: just made up in this recent stretch. Um, So I
Speaker 1: I still I I think that the clear answer from
Speaker 1: the beginning and and currently now as well is call
Speaker 1: up the Pacers, offer him the two picks, get Miles
Speaker 1: Turner and body heal. Hell, I'd do it right now,
Speaker 1: because if you did it right now, then the Pacers
Speaker 1: would be shorthanded tonight and you might be able to
Speaker 1: get yourself a win there right Um, but clearly their
Speaker 1: intent on waiting, and we'll see, it's very possible that
Speaker 1: the Lakers are sitting at like ten and seventeen by
Speaker 1: the time of deal actually gets done. And that's a
Speaker 1: damn shame considering how wide open the league is right
Speaker 1: now and the fact that the Lakers are still right
Speaker 1: there with a chance to make a run because of
Speaker 1: how poorly everyone else has played in the Western Conference.
Speaker 1: One note on the Pacers, They've been playing really good
Speaker 1: ball lately and they deserve a shout out. We will
Speaker 1: get to them in tomorrow's show, We're gonna do a lot.
Speaker 1: I've been watching a ton of film on Tyrese Haliburton
Speaker 1: to prep for this, So we will get to that
Speaker 1: when we cover the Lakers Pacers game in the second
Speaker 1: half of tomorrow's show, after we break down UM the
Speaker 1: Mavericks game. Speaking of the Mavericks, let's get to the Mavericks.
Speaker 1: So after getting roundhouse kicked by Milwaukee last night, UM,
Speaker 1: they've lost four in a row, their three and seven
Speaker 1: in their last ten games. There seven and offense during
Speaker 1: the span eighth and defense. Luca is as good as ever.
Speaker 1: He's averaging thirty points per game, nine rebounds, eight assist,
Speaker 1: fifty seven percent try shooting, which is fine, a little
Speaker 1: low for him and not terrible. They've been a positive
Speaker 1: in this three and seven stretch with him on the floor.
Speaker 1: For the season, the Mavericks are outscoring teams by four
Speaker 1: points per one hundred possessions with Luca on the floor,
Speaker 1: and they're getting outscored by three points per one hundred
Speaker 1: possessions when he's off the floor per cleaning the glass.
Speaker 1: But we kind of expected this to happen after they
Speaker 1: let Jalen Brunson go right like this system depends on
Speaker 1: having a third legitimate ball handler, which brings us to
Speaker 1: Mr Kemba Walker, who the Dallas Mavericks signed today. So
Speaker 1: I wanted to talk a little bit about Kemba and
Speaker 1: how he fits specifically with the Dallas Mavericks. So health
Speaker 1: has been a consistent issue for him over the years,
Speaker 1: but let's proceed as if he's healthy, because obviously Dallas
Speaker 1: would not have signed him otherwise. When Kimba is healthy,
Speaker 1: he is a great pull up shooter who gets to
Speaker 1: the rim more than most guards in the league. I
Speaker 1: wanted to look at his two thousand nineteen season just
Speaker 1: to kind of give you an idea of what peak
Speaker 1: Kemba Walker looks like. So with the Hornets that year,
Speaker 1: he shot over ten pull up jumpers per game, and
Speaker 1: he had over uh he had three point two restricted
Speaker 1: area makes per game. For reference, That's about what you're
Speaker 1: getting from Russell Westbrook right now. That's the level of
Speaker 1: dribble penetration Kemba Walker was getting during that two thousand
Speaker 1: nineteen campaign. And he's doing it and he did it
Speaker 1: on a higher percentage than Russell Westbrook is doing right now.
Speaker 1: And then at his best, he was about a six
Speaker 1: assist per game guy, which is fine for a score
Speaker 1: of the way he was during that season. He was
Speaker 1: in the percentile and picking rolls including passes, and the
Speaker 1: ninety three percentile UH in isolations including passes. So he's
Speaker 1: a guard that can get to the rim, knock down,
Speaker 1: pull up jump shots, and can make plays as a
Speaker 1: scorer and passer in both isolation and pick and roll.
Speaker 1: That is the healthy best version of Kem Walker. So
Speaker 1: in theory, he's the perfect type of guard to slide
Speaker 1: into this Dallas Mavericks system. Is he the same player
Speaker 1: that he was in two thousand nine, Almost certainly not,
Speaker 1: Probably not that close either, But it's a much easier
Speaker 1: role than he had in two thousand. Two thousand nineteen
Speaker 1: he was the top of the scouting report. He won't
Speaker 1: be the top of the scouting report here. Two thousand nineteen,
Speaker 1: he was catching the best perimeter defenders every single night.
Speaker 1: He's going to get the second defender in the bench
Speaker 1: unit on most of his rotation minutes um this year.
Speaker 1: So it's just when you could when you factor in
Speaker 1: the role as a bench creator going against bench lineups
Speaker 1: with the ultimate green light that Dallas gives their ball
Speaker 1: handlers and the Mavericks spacing, which we've talked about a
Speaker 1: ton on the show in the last couple of weeks.
Speaker 1: It could work. They'll have to hide him defensively, but
Speaker 1: they already have some experience in that department, especially off
Speaker 1: the ball. If they can just get him to slide
Speaker 1: his feet on ball so that the drible penetration isn't
Speaker 1: that bad, they there's some any tricks now in the
Speaker 1: league to hide players off ball that they might be
Speaker 1: able to make it work. So the bottom line is,
Speaker 1: if Kemba Walker has anything left in the tank, Dallas
Speaker 1: is the ideal spot for him to show that. Because
Speaker 1: the matchups he'll be attacking are favorable, they'll have a
Speaker 1: green light so he can shoot through his slump whatever
Speaker 1: that is as he gets back into into his into rhythm,
Speaker 1: and then the spacing will have to operate with all
Speaker 1: their pick and pop bigs and the good shooters that
Speaker 1: they stashed in the corner. And then, last, but not least,
Speaker 1: it's a low risk type of move. You're signing him
Speaker 1: at a veteran minimum contract. I haven't seen the details,
Speaker 1: but I wouldn't be surprised if it's non guaranteed so um,
Speaker 1: and even if it is guaranteed, what are you out
Speaker 1: a couple million bucks? So I thought it was a
Speaker 1: smart move for Dallas just to try something, especially with
Speaker 1: how bad they've been offensively. Um in this recent stretch.
Speaker 1: Dallas's schedule does lighten up a little bit in December.
Speaker 1: They still have some tough games, but there's a lot
Speaker 1: of winnable games in there as well, and some good
Speaker 1: matchups for the MAVs specifically. So I think it's a
Speaker 1: good spot to integrate, integrate Keimba, and make up some
Speaker 1: ground in the standings. All right, Yes, that is all
Speaker 1: I have for today. You guys know the drill, Like
Speaker 1: I said, tomorrow will be going live after Maverick's Warriors,
Speaker 1: and then I broke down the rest of the schedule
Speaker 1: earlier this week. Don't forget to go to YouTube excuse
Speaker 1: me to my Twitter page to check out those videos
Speaker 1: that I put together. As always, I sincerely appreciate your
Speaker 1: support and I will see you next time. The volume