Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane. Along
Speaker 1: with Jonathan Ferrell and Lisa Brownwitz. Daily we bring you
Speaker 1: insight from the best and economics, finance, investment, and international relations.
Speaker 1: To find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple podcast, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot
Speaker 1: Com and of course on the Bloomberg terminal Squeezing. Stephen
Speaker 1: Stanley here with Amer's Pierpont as we wait for the
Speaker 1: President United States in Madrid. Steve Stanley just doing fabulous
Speaker 1: work on the makeup of the American economy with Aaron
Speaker 1: Amer's Pierpont. What's your biggest mystery? Into Q three? Steve
Speaker 1: Stanley on the classic equation, consumption, investment, government or trade dynamics.
Speaker 1: Which one is the great Stanley mystery? Well, I think
Speaker 1: you gotta watch the consumer and you gotta watch housing
Speaker 1: because the markets are starting to smell us economic slowdown,
Speaker 1: which I think is a little premature, but certainly that
Speaker 1: is the issue of the day, and if we're going
Speaker 1: to get a slowdown, that's where you're gonna see it.
Speaker 1: So we've been focused very keenly, I think, over the
Speaker 1: last couple of months on housing, and it does seem
Speaker 1: to be cooling off, but it's cooling from a very
Speaker 1: hot temperature. Uh. And these numbers today on the consumer
Speaker 1: are a little disappointing. So um, I do think that
Speaker 1: the consumer is going to have a big summer, people
Speaker 1: getting out and uh, doing all the things they haven't
Speaker 1: been able to do for the last couple of years.
Speaker 1: But the data this morning or not, uh, not all
Speaker 1: that encouraging. And Steven, that's exactly where I wanted to go,
Speaker 1: especially because real spending declined for the first time going
Speaker 1: back to December, and more than people have previously expected.
Speaker 1: This as inflation adjusted actual spending. How quickly is the
Speaker 1: consumer based on this data and other incremental points that
Speaker 1: we're looking at, how quickly is the consumer rolling over
Speaker 1: in terms of their ability to really accept some of
Speaker 1: the price increases. So well, there's ability and willingness, right,
Speaker 1: and I think the ability is unusually strong because consumers
Speaker 1: are sitting on a huge pile of cash that accumulated
Speaker 1: during the pandemic. Um, you know, all the fiscal largesse
Speaker 1: in particular, so consumers have the wherewithal at least send
Speaker 1: the aggregate to spend. I mean, obviously inflation is going
Speaker 1: to create stress for certain households. But uh, there is
Speaker 1: a question about willingness, and I think given the consumer
Speaker 1: confidence dada, you have to wonder a little bit about, um,
Speaker 1: how eager consumers are going to gonna be to continue
Speaker 1: to spend. My sense is that there's still very enthusiastic. Certainly,
Speaker 1: any any field trip to the airport would suggest that
Speaker 1: that people are are still looking to get out to
Speaker 1: the airport tomorrow and it's going to be a nightmare.
Speaker 1: Already prepared for this. Flights are getting canceled. How much, though,
Speaker 1: is this part of the story that it is a blip.
Speaker 1: It is revenge travel. It is people who are reprising
Speaker 1: the past that they were not able to live during
Speaker 1: the pandemic. That ends, it ends with the miserable experiences
Speaker 1: that people have in the airport. It ends with the
Speaker 1: fact that people have gone out, they've traveled, they're now exhausted,
Speaker 1: already to start whatever it is that is the post
Speaker 1: pandemic reality. How much is this the last hurrah when
Speaker 1: it comes to travel and some of these inputs that
Speaker 1: leads to the next phase that begins at Labor day, right, Well,
Speaker 1: there's definitely it seems like there's gonna be some catch up.
Speaker 1: So that's the short run burst, if you will, in
Speaker 1: the economy, and I think that does certainly protect any
Speaker 1: threat of the down of a downturn in the near term.
Speaker 1: But but as you say, I mean, once you get
Speaker 1: past that, then it becomes it gets back to the
Speaker 1: usual fundamentals. I mean, certainly, one thing that is on
Speaker 1: the positive side is the labor market. And you know,
Speaker 1: the unemployment rate around three and a half percent, so
Speaker 1: people have jobs and um incomes are not necessarily keeping
Speaker 1: up with inflation the way we might like. But but
Speaker 1: income growth has been pretty strong and I think sufficient
Speaker 1: to support ongoing growth and consumption. So um, I do.
Speaker 1: I take your point, but I think that the the
Speaker 1: underlying fundamentals are still pretty good. I think what we
Speaker 1: really have to see is how sensitive is the economy
Speaker 1: too higher interest rates. We haven't had higher interest rates
Speaker 1: for a very long time, certainly going back before the
Speaker 1: financial crisis, and it remains to be seen how sensitive
Speaker 1: the economy is uh as interest rich rise. And I
Speaker 1: think housing is going to be the test case there.
Speaker 1: So that again is why I'm keeping it. When this
Speaker 1: conversation often comes up. Often here economists described the aggregate story,
Speaker 1: the headline stuff. Can you break it down a little
Speaker 1: bit more for us, what the low income groups, middle
Speaker 1: income groups, high income groups, what do you expect from
Speaker 1: them this year? Because from an ex re market perspective,
Speaker 1: that's gonna have different consequences, different outcomes, ramifications for different companies. Sure. Yeah, Well,
Speaker 1: if you if you go through the pandemic period and
Speaker 1: think about that accumulation in household balance sheets, there were
Speaker 1: really two stories. Um. For the wealthier households, they weren't
Speaker 1: getting a lot of the fiscal largees, but they were
Speaker 1: benefiting from the markets, in particular the equity market but
Speaker 1: also housing UM. And then the people with more modest
Speaker 1: incomes were the ones that for the most part who
Speaker 1: were receiving the rebate checks and the unemployment UH supplement
Speaker 1: on employment benefits and things like that. So even the
Speaker 1: folks at the lower end of the spectrum UM came
Speaker 1: out of the pandemic, perhaps a lot of them at
Speaker 1: least in better shape than they might have been otherwise.
Speaker 1: Of Course, you know over time that that cushion will
Speaker 1: get spent UH and and in particular in this environment,
Speaker 1: inflation will erode of purchasing power to a degree. So uh,
Speaker 1: it's going to be important for the labor market to
Speaker 1: stay strong. Those folks at the lower end of the
Speaker 1: wage spectrum have been doing particularly well in terms of
Speaker 1: wage gains, and um, you know you'd like to see
Speaker 1: that continue, you would, Stephen. Thank you, Stephen standing there
Speaker 1: of Amherst popon the challenge to the consumer issues we've
Speaker 1: all got to think about when it comes to markets
Speaker 1: and this economy. Closing out June and looking ahead to
Speaker 1: July to like thirte CPN Americans, you like fourteenth JP
Speaker 1: more can kicking off things for the banks in corporate America,
Speaker 1: looking ahead to warnings, looking ahead to what they spawn
Speaker 1: market is going to provide for this Federal Reserve and
Speaker 1: it's next mazing. My shoemak At joins the snap Global
Speaker 1: head of Macris Strategy at Wells Faco and Mike, Lisa,
Speaker 1: Tom and I trying to work out where the bike
Speaker 1: point is in this credit market for this FED to
Speaker 1: have a rethink. It's not where we are now, where
Speaker 1: is it? Mike? Yeah, it's interesting trying. I feeok at
Speaker 1: high ELD typically it peaks at about ten percent in
Speaker 1: the cycle. Right now, it's heights, so I would say
Speaker 1: that's tennish, maybe somewhere around there, but nowhere near current levels.
Speaker 1: The FEDS looking right now at the tight end conditions
Speaker 1: and saying yeah it hurts, Yeah, it's painful. But this
Speaker 1: is a feature, it's not a book. We're going to
Speaker 1: see more of it, Michael. The clear theme here and
Speaker 1: particularly off the important panel yesterday, is the FED and
Speaker 1: other central banks are resolute by reading a meltzer, Anna Schwartz,
Speaker 1: Friedman Richard Timberlake of the Georgia School is simple, that's bologny.
Speaker 1: They always succumb to the political zeitgeist, the political pressure.
Speaker 1: Is it going to be the same way this time?
Speaker 1: I respect the FED and the other central banks will
Speaker 1: feel a ton of pressure from the politicians time. It's
Speaker 1: almost inevitable. But the question is how quickly they I
Speaker 1: wouldn't say cave, but had the impact or decision making.
Speaker 1: And for Chairman Powell in particular, it's really a challenge
Speaker 1: because he's got to look at that wall down of
Speaker 1: the FED and say, you know what, Arthur Burns worst
Speaker 1: chairman ever, William Miller probably a close number two. I
Speaker 1: don't want to be number three. I've got to fight
Speaker 1: inflation and I think that that personal legacy is going
Speaker 1: outwigh to politics for him quite some time. Michael Schumacher
Speaker 1: harsh today. Well, Mike, given that harsh review and given
Speaker 1: some of the barishness that you have currently looking at
Speaker 1: this market, how do we get to four percent on
Speaker 1: a tenure treasury yelled, given that we are looking at
Speaker 1: such a pessimistic scenario that usually sends people back in
Speaker 1: the bonds at least, it's really interesting. I think you've
Speaker 1: got to break it down into where does inflation and
Speaker 1: the cycle and what sort of real rate is going
Speaker 1: to be implied or expected at that point in time.
Speaker 1: So we think core probably a core inflation that is,
Speaker 1: and the cycle maybe two fifty, perhaps a bit higher
Speaker 1: and really olds at least an our Va Wells Fargo
Speaker 1: have to be one fifty plus, So that gets you
Speaker 1: to four percent. You might say, well, wow, one fifty
Speaker 1: with a recession, how can that happen? Think about the
Speaker 1: last cycle, granted fairly mild, but still at the end
Speaker 1: of that cycle you have the real tenure rate about one,
Speaker 1: so one fifty with incredible inflation and really the FED
Speaker 1: one and to take out insurance against that inflation, Genie
Speaker 1: coming back out of the bottle. That seems pretty reasonable
Speaker 1: to us. That's how we get before. What is four
Speaker 1: percent on a treasure yield for a tenure treasure yield
Speaker 1: to do US equities, that's a really rough ride. So
Speaker 1: I think if you do get four on tens, certainly
Speaker 1: speed manners. Let's say it happens sometime around the end
Speaker 1: of this year. It takes stocks down quite a bit.
Speaker 1: I'm not sure if they get down towards three thousand.
Speaker 1: I'll leave that to Chris Harvey, but it's going to
Speaker 1: be a pretty painful journey. We'll catch up with Chris
Speaker 1: Likes and ask him that. Mike, I just want to
Speaker 1: finish up with deal reflections on yesterday. What was the
Speaker 1: big standard thing for you? Listening to President of God,
Speaker 1: listening to Chamman Pou, listening to Governor Bady too. When
Speaker 1: I listened to those three central bankers, John, it strikes
Speaker 1: me the e c B has got the toughest job.
Speaker 1: Certainly it's most closely impacted by the situation in Russia
Speaker 1: and Ukraine. And I listened to Christine Legard and say, well, okay,
Speaker 1: so the e c b s history of ray hikes
Speaker 1: is not particularly great, And on top of that you've
Speaker 1: got the question of gas floats. I would circle, I
Speaker 1: mean circle in bold red July one on the calendar.
Speaker 1: It's the ECB meeting and also, perhaps more importantly, that's
Speaker 1: the day of the nord Stream pipeline comes off. Me
Speaker 1: its will the gas go back on? How much that's
Speaker 1: going to drive policy through the CP. So they're all
Speaker 1: uncomfortable that. I think that's a central bank. It's got
Speaker 1: the biggest challenge ahead. Fascinating stuff. Mike my Shoemak of
Speaker 1: that of Wolds FAKA for Global Wall Street, get out
Speaker 1: the pad of paper and take notes. Jane Foley is
Speaker 1: a student of foreign exchange. Yes, dollar centric, but with
Speaker 1: Robbo Bank far more looking at the linkages between foreign exchange.
Speaker 1: What I noticed irrefutable, and I know the President Trump
Speaker 1: was way out front on this, Jane is strong strong dollar.
Speaker 1: Trade weighted dollar by any indusicries is back to two
Speaker 1: thousand three, even back to two thousand two. What is
Speaker 1: the significance of a strong dollar back twenty years? Oh well,
Speaker 1: this is, as you say, a pretty strong DOLI. But
Speaker 1: I think what it's reflecting is is the riskiness of
Speaker 1: other assets. I mean there is a pretty strong correlation
Speaker 1: or inverted correlation between the dollar and one hand and
Speaker 1: risky assets. When risky assets are not performing well well,
Speaker 1: the dollar goes up and vice versa. And I think
Speaker 1: if we look at the tone and markets right now,
Speaker 1: people talking about recession, the US recession potentially over over
Speaker 1: the winter in Europe because the gas prices a slett
Speaker 1: with growth worldwide, then then that's an environment which the
Speaker 1: dollar performs well and risky assets do not. And I
Speaker 1: think that's, you know, very much a story that we're
Speaker 1: looking at right now. I don't go short term with
Speaker 1: too much respect for your work, Jane, but I am
Speaker 1: going to do it here in June thirty where is
Speaker 1: euro and Yenne set up against dollar September thirty, Well,
Speaker 1: you know, our forecast for for Dolly Yenne, sorry for
Speaker 1: for euro dollar for a while has been you know,
Speaker 1: one oh three ish, and the reason for that is that,
Speaker 1: you know, we have this massive, big support level and
Speaker 1: one oh three and a half and and you know
Speaker 1: we're staring really closely at that today. If we go
Speaker 1: below that, you know, we could see parity. And I
Speaker 1: think from while we've been able to outline the risk
Speaker 1: of a parity, and this is this is to do
Speaker 1: with Europe. This is to do with gas prices high
Speaker 1: over the winter, This is to do with that creating
Speaker 1: these refreshing recession recondition stackflation, and that of course putting
Speaker 1: a lot of focus on fragmentation in the Eurozone, which
Speaker 1: is a bad story for the euro. So that is
Speaker 1: what we're looking at, I think this week. But with
Speaker 1: respect to the yen, well, you know that is a
Speaker 1: I think a yield story. Now the dollars gone up
Speaker 1: today more than the yen, and it's brought us up
Speaker 1: to you about one thirty six. But actually, if US
Speaker 1: yields do start to come down, then I think that
Speaker 1: gives the Bank of Japan a little bit of room
Speaker 1: to carry on doing their your care of control until
Speaker 1: they want to stop it, which will be one way
Speaker 1: to spegin to go up in Japan. Jane, I want
Speaker 1: to stick on the Euro for a minute. You're really
Speaker 1: saying it's quite bearish for the euro right now, which
Speaker 1: a lot of people see the same, especially given some
Speaker 1: of the gas constraints for Germany. So why haven't we
Speaker 1: seen more weakness already? You know what? I think people
Speaker 1: are only just beginning to come around to the recessionary
Speaker 1: story for for the euro Zone. We've had that as
Speaker 1: a forecast for a while and we've been an outlier.
Speaker 1: But I think more recently, you know, that has become
Speaker 1: or that view that we could see recession over the
Speaker 1: over the winter months has become a little bit more
Speaker 1: commonplace in the market. Now we've got the guard still
Speaker 1: defending the view that she still thinks the easy we
Speaker 1: would still carry on seeing growth in the Eurozone. But
Speaker 1: the fact that she's defending it again this week, the
Speaker 1: fact that she's reiterating it almost sounds like a pushback
Speaker 1: against the fact that she's aware of these weight of
Speaker 1: views coming through from the market about Eurozone growth. Now,
Speaker 1: if look back to last week, we had the German
Speaker 1: Finance Economy minister talking about the possibility, you know, that
Speaker 1: we could have maybe supply cut off to some industries
Speaker 1: in Germany that would relate to Italy too, very difficult
Speaker 1: not to see recession if that happens, Jane. The spiraling
Speaker 1: effect of a weakening currency in an inflationary environment is
Speaker 1: something that is also a bearer case because it will
Speaker 1: only exacerbate inflationary pressures in the euroregion. Prompting the ECB
Speaker 1: potentially to act more aggressively, only furthering the downturn. How
Speaker 1: much are you looking at the incremental weakening in the
Speaker 1: currency as a bear case for the economic trajectory? You know,
Speaker 1: this is really quite interesting, and I think we've seen
Speaker 1: this quite a lot in the last few weeks, certainly
Speaker 1: this month, amongst at central banks. You look, for instance,
Speaker 1: sort of speech by Catherine Mann from the Bank of
Speaker 1: England last week. She was talking about the spiller of
Speaker 1: over effects of the FED hiking by large amounts and
Speaker 1: that coming through into the UK and and perhaps setting
Speaker 1: the scene for a more aggress pace of interestrate hikes
Speaker 1: in the UK just to defend the currency. Now you
Speaker 1: can see that already in in Norway. Norway height interest
Speaker 1: rates recently by fifty basis points, bigger than expected. It
Speaker 1: only served to stop the currency going down. It didn't
Speaker 1: push the currency higher. The ricks bank today fifty basis
Speaker 1: points not an awful a lot of game for the currency, etcetera.
Speaker 1: So we're seeing this this momentum where central banks have
Speaker 1: to go big because all of the big ones are
Speaker 1: going big, and as you say, that can just accentuate
Speaker 1: the downside risks and in terms of demand, and whilst
Speaker 1: that might be that might fit well perhaps for the US,
Speaker 1: maybe for the Europe, and certainly not for the UK,
Speaker 1: will that be necessarily suitable when you have less wage
Speaker 1: inflation and and perhaps more vulnerable demand? There what a
Speaker 1: great point, James Folly there of rather Bank, the head
Speaker 1: of FX Strategy, chief global strategist at Principal Global Investors,
Speaker 1: Echard joins us right now, seeming you wrote a midiar
Speaker 1: report five days ago. What's changed in the last five days?
Speaker 1: What is the new staggering in the Q three? Hi,
Speaker 1: I joined try Tom, thanks for having me on um.
Speaker 1: I don't know what's necessarily changed. I think all that
Speaker 1: we've seen is that central bankers are finally being a
Speaker 1: little bit up from about what that actually having to
Speaker 1: deal with, and they've they've finally emphasized, especially for the feather,
Speaker 1: they finally emphasize that prestability has to be their number
Speaker 1: one priority. And I think the markets has given a
Speaker 1: bit of a wake up call. This is not going
Speaker 1: to be an easy ride. But I don't think that
Speaker 1: excess can rally the back of the year. That makes
Speaker 1: the assumption that the set is going to let go
Speaker 1: of its entire focus and pricetability, and to step back
Speaker 1: from that and we have a very different view. We
Speaker 1: think things are gonna get pretty tough, seem that's another
Speaker 1: way of saying they are not going to tolerate anything
Speaker 1: of financial conditions. They're not going to tolerate a running
Speaker 1: and gets with the market, They're not going to tolerate
Speaker 1: tightening credit spread. So I want to understand from you
Speaker 1: just how much downside do you think there risk. Do
Speaker 1: you think of this as a moment where markets can't
Speaker 1: alley or do you think of this as a moment
Speaker 1: where markets have to sell off more so, it's interesting
Speaker 1: because when we look at technicals, if you look at
Speaker 1: just investor sentiment is getting extremely nervous negative um. You know,
Speaker 1: there's been a fair amount of flows into cash as well,
Speaker 1: which means that I think we could see a bit
Speaker 1: of a technical rally over the next couple of months,
Speaker 1: assuming that there are no negative or actually say positive
Speaker 1: upside prints on the inflation side. But that doesn't mean
Speaker 1: that that is a sustained rally which is going to
Speaker 1: continue into three by any means. We think that as
Speaker 1: soon as you start to see your second leg of
Speaker 1: the downturn, which is essentially when earnies growth starts to
Speaker 1: come down, that is when you get your a further
Speaker 1: drop in the extra market declines. How far we go
Speaker 1: from here is a difficult one to cool. I think
Speaker 1: you could get another tent to fifteen decent dropped from
Speaker 1: this point, but between now and then you can't get
Speaker 1: a bit of a rally. If we were doing a
Speaker 1: full on jargon hour, we would be talking about a
Speaker 1: softer recession, which possibly is the biggest cliche of the
Speaker 1: moment as we talk about how much this contour of
Speaker 1: the contours of this particular recession will be different than
Speaker 1: those of two thousand and eight or two thousand and nine.
Speaker 1: Do you agree with this assessment that it's going to
Speaker 1: be shallow, that it's not going to be as painful
Speaker 1: as previous down terms. I do, and I think the
Speaker 1: reason is is that when you think about the GFC,
Speaker 1: that was really that was so much imbalance um that
Speaker 1: had to be worked through the economy, and that dragged
Speaker 1: it out for quite a long time and also made
Speaker 1: it pretty deep. I think from our perspective, we can
Speaker 1: see that this is gonna be a shallow recession, but
Speaker 1: almost A more difficult part is that once we start
Speaker 1: to see the FED cut rates in response to your
Speaker 1: recession and inflation fears coming down, how far do they
Speaker 1: really go? Did they go back to the zero present
Speaker 1: level that we've become so accustomed to, or do they
Speaker 1: start to settle it just below the neutral right, which
Speaker 1: is around two percent? So well, I agree that this
Speaker 1: is this is a more inflationary period going forward for
Speaker 1: the next ten twenty years UM and Monterrey policy is
Speaker 1: going to have to follow with up. So Seema, how
Speaker 1: does that reshape your thesis in terms of how to
Speaker 1: arrange some of your assets. I'm thinking particularly of sixty
Speaker 1: forty that just had its worst quarter ever. Yeah, well,
Speaker 1: I think this really plays into the idea that it's
Speaker 1: real assets. Right, We're looking at not just a medium
Speaker 1: or a short term inflationing period. This is the medium
Speaker 1: term inflation outlook where commodities, infrastructure you can really continue
Speaker 1: to outperform. From a bond side, Well, look, I think
Speaker 1: we can still think we think about higher quality and
Speaker 1: moving into slightly longer duration, but unfortunately the longer duration
Speaker 1: doesn't work for too long because we just don't the
Speaker 1: US Treasury yields falling too far if you start to
Speaker 1: think that even in a recession, the FED isn't going
Speaker 1: to cut all the way to zero. And a couple
Speaker 1: of messages this morning from a terminal subscriber, and he
Speaker 1: talked about the consensus that we've gone over a million
Speaker 1: times and how quickly that consensus has changed. This is
Speaker 1: what he said. I think the market call was this.
Speaker 1: The FED won't hike much in twenty three. The Fed
Speaker 1: won't hike fifty. The Fed won't hug seventy five. Inflation
Speaker 1: peaked in March, Fed wal force in September. Inflation will
Speaker 1: come down in the fall. The Fed will pause in
Speaker 1: early twenty three. No recession, no recession, recession risk, fifty
Speaker 1: recession risk. And now seemingly tim the new one. And
Speaker 1: this is not me throwing shade a seema ca semara.
Speaker 1: Give you the chance to respond to this, but the
Speaker 1: new consensus view, it's recept but a shallow one. And
Speaker 1: we've heard that several times this morning. In fact, we've
Speaker 1: heard it a lot of times this week. John, you're
Speaker 1: killing me. Will give me something to magnitude, I would
Speaker 1: look with an all the discussion here of y will
Speaker 1: c plus I plus G plus n X, the international component,
Speaker 1: the trade component. It's about gaming the magnitude of a slowdown.
Speaker 1: John Williams, New York Fed says, there's not going to
Speaker 1: be a recession. We're gonna get that growth. The agony
Speaker 1: of a of a more subdued positive ste to one
Speaker 1: point five is what I think he said, seem I
Speaker 1: wanted to give you the shows to respond to that
Speaker 1: because it started to become this consensus view recession maybe
Speaker 1: but a shallow one. You're comfortable with that that a
Speaker 1: lot of other people just see it the same way.
Speaker 1: But we've had that story a few times this year,
Speaker 1: and it's changed pretty quickly. I think. I think that investors, justice,
Speaker 1: central banks have been caught up many times in terms
Speaker 1: of the inflation view and you know through all the
Speaker 1: bit but energy and food inflation are going to be
Speaker 1: the wild card, and that is going to be difficult
Speaker 1: to predict, I think from the recession perspective because we
Speaker 1: just fundamentally don't have made it imbalances in the system.
Speaker 1: It's difficult to see it getting to the g FD
Speaker 1: perspective unless this is a caveat which is where you
Speaker 1: get come onto continue to drive hitting the hundred fifty
Speaker 1: delivered barrel, and then you're looking at saxationary shock, which
Speaker 1: in that case that's a deeper recession and it's a
Speaker 1: longer recession. But that's the wild card. Sama. Thank you
Speaker 1: for that explanation at the end there to thank you
Speaker 1: very much, Seem Chanda of Principle Global Investors. This is
Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Thanks for listening. Join us live
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Speaker 1: the terminal. I'm Tom Keene and this is Bloomberg