WEBVTT - "Crazy Rich" Asians Prefer Singapore or Hong Kong?

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<v Speaker 1>You're listening to Asia Centric from Bloomberg Intelligence, the podcast

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<v Speaker 1>that pulls back the curtain on global business so you

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<v Speaker 1>can invest better across the Pacific rim. I'm Tom M. Corbett,

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<v Speaker 1>editor for Bloomberg Intelligence in Hong Kong, and I'm John Lee,

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<v Speaker 1>marketing analysts with Bloomberg Intelligence. In this episode, we'll look

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<v Speaker 1>at the tug of war between Hong Kong and Singapore

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<v Speaker 1>to become the wealth capital of Asia. Hong Kong has

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<v Speaker 1>typically being the hotspot for the reach with its proximity

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<v Speaker 1>to mainland China, but now that picture is changing as

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<v Speaker 1>pandemic woes, political conflict and of Boulder Beijing makes Singapore

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<v Speaker 1>a rising star while Hong Kong gets the dimmer switch.

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<v Speaker 1>What does this mean for Asia's two biggest wealth contenders

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<v Speaker 1>and the investors they want to attract. I think the

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<v Speaker 1>picture ten years from now is that both cities will

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<v Speaker 1>continue to do well. Let's bring in Sharnie Wong and

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<v Speaker 1>senior analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence. Charnie, Welcome, Hi, Tom, Hi John,

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks for having me. Shanni, Hong Kong was Singapore? Which

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<v Speaker 1>city is the wealth capital of Asia? Right now? At

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<v Speaker 1>the moment, it's Hong Kong. When we look at household wealth,

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<v Speaker 1>Hong Kong has about three point five trillion dollars, whereas

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<v Speaker 1>Singapore only has about one point eight trillions, So it's

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<v Speaker 1>close to double Singapore. Shanni. Isn't Singapore catching up to

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<v Speaker 1>Hong Kong. There are lots of press reports talking about

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<v Speaker 1>how rich Chinese man lands are piling money into Singapore. Yes,

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<v Speaker 1>so when we look at the growth rate over the

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<v Speaker 1>last couple of years, Singapore has definitely been catching up.

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<v Speaker 1>It's growing at a much faster pace than Hong Kong.

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<v Speaker 1>And also that the same case for cross border wealth

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<v Speaker 1>as well. When we looked at the non resident assets

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<v Speaker 1>that are booked in Hong Kong and Singapore, that also

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<v Speaker 1>is growing faster in Singapore versus Hong Kong. But when

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<v Speaker 1>we take all that into account in terms of the

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<v Speaker 1>growth rate, I think it could well take over seventeen

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<v Speaker 1>years before Singapore could even come close to Hong Kong,

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<v Speaker 1>simply from the smallest starting point. So Hong Kong has

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<v Speaker 1>a head start. But we have this image Charny of

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<v Speaker 1>Singapore with this new spring in its step, while Hong

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<v Speaker 1>Kong has hunched shoulders. Has Hong Kong permanently lost its

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<v Speaker 1>edge as a wealth hub. I don't think so clearly.

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<v Speaker 1>There are a lot of factors that play. The biggest

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<v Speaker 1>one would be COVID and the virus curbs. And when

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<v Speaker 1>we break it down, say for the international investors, I

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<v Speaker 1>guess it does make sense for some of them to

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<v Speaker 1>be based out of Singapore given the travel curbs here.

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<v Speaker 1>But when we look at the mainland wealth, clearly Hong

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<v Speaker 1>Kong has an edge right now. That edge again is

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<v Speaker 1>affected by the virus curbs because just geographically it's much

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<v Speaker 1>closer for people to travel. It's just so convenient prior

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<v Speaker 1>to COVID. But then now with the restriction, So I

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<v Speaker 1>guess it does make a lot of sense for Singapore

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<v Speaker 1>to grow faster. But ultimately, at some stage, which we

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<v Speaker 1>don't currently know when, but at some stage, the borders

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<v Speaker 1>will reopen, and at that point I think Hong Kong

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<v Speaker 1>has a clear edge to win back that market share.

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<v Speaker 1>Isn't Hong Kong impacted by rising to political risks between

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<v Speaker 1>the US and China. Isn't this benefiting neutral Singapore? Yeah?

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<v Speaker 1>I think it depends on who you're talking about. Like,

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<v Speaker 1>for example, there are those people that are concerned in

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<v Speaker 1>Hong Kong and some of them have chosen to move overseas,

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<v Speaker 1>and we've definitely seen that trend where there is migration,

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<v Speaker 1>say to Australia, the UK, etcetera. So there is clearly

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<v Speaker 1>wealth that's moving out of the city. But at the

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<v Speaker 1>same time, keep in mind that the mainland China that

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<v Speaker 1>has historically been a huge wealth tap for Hong Kong

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<v Speaker 1>and that is currently closed. It's quite hard for people

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<v Speaker 1>to move their money offshore right now, not just physically

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<v Speaker 1>right like it's hard for them to physically leave because

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<v Speaker 1>of the virus curbs, but also moving their money like

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<v Speaker 1>with capital controls, it is quite tight. Our guests is

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<v Speaker 1>Sharnie Wong, senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. Sharnie put on

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<v Speaker 1>your investors camp. Let's extend that thought just a bit.

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<v Speaker 1>You're a wealthy investor, you live in mainland China, You've

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<v Speaker 1>got between five and ten million US dollars that you

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<v Speaker 1>want to push off shore. Do you go to Singapore

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<v Speaker 1>or do you go to Hong Kong. Yes, so that

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<v Speaker 1>is a quite loaded question. But if you think about it,

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<v Speaker 1>you really need to know who you're talking about. So

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<v Speaker 1>are you talking about the ultra high net worth. Are

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<v Speaker 1>you talking about the lower tier of the high net

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<v Speaker 1>worth or are you talking about mass affluent. So if

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<v Speaker 1>you're the ultra higher net worth, say with over thirty

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<v Speaker 1>million U S dollars already, it's likely you already have

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<v Speaker 1>assets globally, and then you've got the high net worths,

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<v Speaker 1>so those with over one million dollars. And historically, and

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<v Speaker 1>I think this will continue to be the case, is

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<v Speaker 1>that Hong Kong has always been the starting point for them.

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<v Speaker 1>But right now with mainland China, with the economic worries,

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<v Speaker 1>when we look at the flows in terms of the

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<v Speaker 1>wealth connect for example, that's all come to a stop

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<v Speaker 1>pretty much like quite slow. The sales have been pretty poor.

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<v Speaker 1>So when we look at the mass affluent segment, which

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<v Speaker 1>are the people with over one hundred thousand U S dollars,

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<v Speaker 1>Now I think that it's the key really because when

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<v Speaker 1>you look at the whole population of China, there is

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<v Speaker 1>this huge rise in the mass affluent segment driven by

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<v Speaker 1>the rising wealth in Asia overall. So right now again

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<v Speaker 1>that tap has pretty much been turned off, but there

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<v Speaker 1>is clearly a huge demand because when I look at

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<v Speaker 1>the onshore numbers out of the AMC, which is China's

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<v Speaker 1>Asset Management Association. The mutual fund numbers in terms of

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<v Speaker 1>influence that's continued to go up, and if you think

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<v Speaker 1>about it, that's really amazing because the stock markets down,

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<v Speaker 1>the property market is facing so many issues. But at

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<v Speaker 1>the same time, mutual fund a u M rise which

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<v Speaker 1>means influence more than compensate the drop in investment performance.

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<v Speaker 1>So that's only led by money market funds, also bond funds,

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<v Speaker 1>So that highlights the investor risk aversion right now, and

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<v Speaker 1>that money is basically stuck in China. But again, when

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<v Speaker 1>they start to ease capital controls or when they start

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<v Speaker 1>to ease COVID curbs, and then these people can then

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<v Speaker 1>travel to Hong Kong, it's likely that they will buy

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<v Speaker 1>wealth managment products here. So I think with that Hong

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<v Speaker 1>Kong has a clear edge over Singapore to target the

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<v Speaker 1>mass affluent people in mainland China. A number of high

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<v Speaker 1>profile billionaires have set up family officers in Singapore, including

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<v Speaker 1>India's and Barney family of Reliance Industries, Rate Delhi or

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<v Speaker 1>Bridgewater Capital. So Brain co founder of Google. Why have

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<v Speaker 1>all these billionaires chosen Singapore? It's mainly tax incentives. So

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<v Speaker 1>right now, in Singapore it's a lot more straightforward for

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of the ultra higher net worth to set

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<v Speaker 1>up family offices and for them to be exempt from

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<v Speaker 1>paying income tax. Having said that, Hong Kong it is

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<v Speaker 1>less straightforward, but the government is doing something about it.

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<v Speaker 1>So in March they already announced for public consultation this

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<v Speaker 1>plan to um change the scheme for family offices, which

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<v Speaker 1>would mean that they don't have to pay profits tax.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think with that change coming, it would be

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<v Speaker 1>interesting to see because I think that the dynamics would change,

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<v Speaker 1>and also the other changes. Singapore is actually tightening their

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<v Speaker 1>rules for family offices in April they minimum AUM requirements

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<v Speaker 1>and also you have to allocate ten percent of your

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<v Speaker 1>assets domestically and invested in Singapore. So I think it's

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<v Speaker 1>quite interesting in the contrast because Hong Kong it's loosening

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<v Speaker 1>up in terms of granting those tax exemptions, but then

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<v Speaker 1>Singapore it's moving the other way. Singapore and Hong Kong

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<v Speaker 1>are both vulnerable to external economic conditions. You've got trade conflict,

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<v Speaker 1>you've got inflation, rising interest rates. How much of what

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<v Speaker 1>we're seeing in this dynamic is due to COVID and

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<v Speaker 1>the new political climate in Hong Kong. And how much

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<v Speaker 1>is due to global economic weakness do you think? I

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<v Speaker 1>think both cities are clearly international financial hubs, so they

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<v Speaker 1>are both very exposed to what goes on globally. The

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<v Speaker 1>thing is right now, the global economic picture is already weakening,

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<v Speaker 1>but Singapore continues to do well because they are gaining

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of wealth inflows right now, Shanny, look into

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<v Speaker 1>your analysts crystal ball. What does the picture look like

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<v Speaker 1>ten years from now? I think the picture ten years

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<v Speaker 1>from now is that both cities will continue to do well.

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<v Speaker 1>I think Singapore for the next few years has a

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<v Speaker 1>better growth outlook. Definitely wouldn't rite off Hong Kong. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>Hong Kong ultimately has a backing of Beijing. It has

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of financial infrastructure that Singapore doesn't yet have.

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<v Speaker 1>So say, with the stock connect, the bond connect, the

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<v Speaker 1>wealth connect, there's that potential in the greater area that

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<v Speaker 1>has yet to be tapped. Shanny, what's at stake for

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<v Speaker 1>Hong Kong and Singapore companies In terms of the companies

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<v Speaker 1>that do benefit. I think DBS and O C b

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<v Speaker 1>C benefits from from the perspective where they have a

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<v Speaker 1>huge business in Singapore. Obviously they're quite dominant there, but

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<v Speaker 1>also they have a big presence in Hong Kong as well.

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<v Speaker 1>For O C b C, Greater China accounts for slightly

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<v Speaker 1>less than a quarter of their profit. No matter which

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<v Speaker 1>city does better, Singapore or Hong Kong, they both will benefit. Shane.

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<v Speaker 1>If you take a look at events and shine up

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<v Speaker 1>of late, you look at what's happened to tech over

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<v Speaker 1>the past year, you look at the rhetoric around common prosperity.

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<v Speaker 1>Do you think there's a perception among investors that China

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<v Speaker 1>has abandoned the pursuit of well for something else, and

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<v Speaker 1>how is that affecting their perceptions of Hong Kong and Singapore. Yes,

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<v Speaker 1>so the crackdown on big tech I think has had

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<v Speaker 1>an impact and the push for common prosperity. But the

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<v Speaker 1>way that I interpret that is mainly they just want

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<v Speaker 1>to close the wealth gap, right, and that wealth gap

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<v Speaker 1>has worsened over the past decade, so now they're trying

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<v Speaker 1>to pull things back and it for wealth managers, I

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<v Speaker 1>think there are still opportunities. So the ultra high net

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<v Speaker 1>worth they may be impacted, life could be harder for them.

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<v Speaker 1>But with the mass affluent segment that's those are the

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<v Speaker 1>people that they want to help in terms of being

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<v Speaker 1>able to fund their own retirement for example. So there

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<v Speaker 1>are clearly a lot of opportunities for fund managers wealth

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<v Speaker 1>managers to continue to do business in mainland China. And

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<v Speaker 1>when we look at the what the global banks are

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<v Speaker 1>doing Credit, Swiss Ubs, Goldman, Sachs, Morgan, Stanley, etcetera. They

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<v Speaker 1>all have stakes there and they're only just at the

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<v Speaker 1>beginning of their growth. They've only just recently started to

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<v Speaker 1>gain control of a lot of these fund management subsidiaries.

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<v Speaker 1>So I think the road maybe long and bumpy, but

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<v Speaker 1>ultimately there is huge potential and none of these firms

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<v Speaker 1>can afford to miss out on such a big market. Shani.

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<v Speaker 1>Is the property market a good indication of where the

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<v Speaker 1>ultra which are putting their money? Yeah, I think um

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<v Speaker 1>as an allocation to property is one indicator. And when

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<v Speaker 1>we look at the government rental index numbers for the

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<v Speaker 1>landed properties in Singapore, that's up over so it is skyrocketing.

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<v Speaker 1>In Hong Kong it's actually down about two so it's

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<v Speaker 1>not too bad, but of course it's softened, but looking

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<v Speaker 1>at that, I think a lot of the overseas expats

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<v Speaker 1>right now, and also a lot of the ultra high

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<v Speaker 1>net worth they have chosen to move to Singapore, at

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<v Speaker 1>least for now, and I think again the biggest consideration

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<v Speaker 1>would be how easy is it for them to travel

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<v Speaker 1>in and out of the city. Hong Kong we are

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<v Speaker 1>partly open, I would say, but still not fully so.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that contrast is very interesting, where Singapore has

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<v Speaker 1>um gone up very fast in terms of rent and

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<v Speaker 1>also property prices. Patrick, he is expecting Singapore to continue

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<v Speaker 1>to do pretty well, and in Hong Kong there is

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<v Speaker 1>still that uncertainty. We don't know when we will be

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<v Speaker 1>fully open for business, so right now we are in

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<v Speaker 1>a slump. But if and when it opens, it could

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<v Speaker 1>again catch up. Ye. There's been a huge amount of

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<v Speaker 1>wealth creation from cryptocurrencies and recently also some wealth destruction.

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<v Speaker 1>But is Singapore more attractive for crypto investments over the

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<v Speaker 1>past few years. I think it has been simply because

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<v Speaker 1>Singapore has that regulatory certainty, especially for retail investors on crypto,

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<v Speaker 1>whereas Hong Kong they've pretty much stayed silent, right but

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<v Speaker 1>I think that is now changing at Fintech Week, the

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<v Speaker 1>Hong Kong government basically said that they want to explore

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<v Speaker 1>how we can let retail investors access digital assets. So

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<v Speaker 1>I think that is definitely a step in the right direction.

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<v Speaker 1>At once companies that do crypto have that regulatary clarity

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<v Speaker 1>in Hong Kong, I think it's likely that a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of them would choose to be based here. Our guest

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<v Speaker 1>has been Sharnie Wong, senior analyst with Bloomberg Intelligence. Sharnie,

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<v Speaker 1>thanks for joining us, Thanks Tom, Thanks John, and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>John Lee. Thank you for listening to the Asia Centric podcast.