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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern

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Speaker 1: on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: This is an honor actually with a service to the

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Speaker 2: International Monetary Fund.

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Speaker 3: And now at Berenberg Bank.

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Speaker 2: Holger Schmieting, a truly expert on continental Europe, on the

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Speaker 2: core of Germany, the Netherlands of France, all the challenges

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Speaker 2: of Eastern Europe, over to Ireland, maybe a booming Ireland,

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Speaker 2: the challenges of the United Kingdom and across the Atlantic.

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Speaker 2: Doctor Schmiding, thank you so much for joining on this

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Speaker 2: moment to stay for Germany. There is a point and

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Speaker 2: I clearly remember this in my ute of an America

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Speaker 2: after the war, in absolute awe of Conrad at no

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Speaker 2: hour is the gentleman who dragged Germany out of the

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Speaker 2: Marshall Plan and out of the rebuild into something approximating

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Speaker 2: a modern parliamentary system with all the distraction of the

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Speaker 2: Berlin Wall. Would Conrad add an hour and know the

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Speaker 2: Germany of this Monday morning.

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Speaker 4: Well, he would probably be quite disappointed because we now

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Speaker 4: have right wing fringe parties and left wing fringe parties

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Speaker 4: in the sense of being at the somewhat extreme ends

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Speaker 4: of the political spectrum. We have these parties with more

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Speaker 4: than one third of the seats in German Parliament. That

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Speaker 4: was clearly clearly not the case under our law or

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Speaker 4: anywhere over the last last decades. Germany is facing significant problems.

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Speaker 4: The key is that the next government tackles the issues

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Speaker 4: that people are worried about. This includes migration, this includes

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Speaker 4: very much the lack of growth. If these issues are

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Speaker 4: now not tackled forcefully, then the result of the next

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Speaker 4: election in four years time could be even.

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Speaker 2: Us The solution for Germany in this goes from a

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Speaker 2: share of Germany of the forties and fifties to particularly

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Speaker 2: the collapse of the wall and all the reunification of

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Speaker 2: eighty nine ninety ninety one.

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Speaker 3: Holger Schmiding.

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Speaker 2: The speed of parliamentary process has always been slow motion

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Speaker 2: by United Kingdom standards and of course by the fractious

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Speaker 2: American standard. Can Germany speed up their parliamentary process?

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Speaker 3: Given the challenges right.

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Speaker 4: Now, well, given the challenges that we have to build

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Speaker 4: a coalition first before mister Mattz, the leader of the

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Speaker 4: center right, will be chancellor.

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Speaker 5: This is not easy to speed it up.

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Speaker 4: The chancellor to be Mister Matz aims to have the

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Speaker 4: coalition talks over by Easter, which is about eight weeks

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Speaker 4: from now. That by continental European standards for building a

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Speaker 4: coalition would actually be fairly fast. But at a time

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Speaker 4: when we get almost every day news from Donald Trump

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Speaker 4: out of the US, that is of course a problem.

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Speaker 5: We have a bid over well, vacuum is too much

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Speaker 5: over world.

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Speaker 4: But we have a bit of a period right now

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Speaker 4: where Germany and Europe cannot really act fully and that

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Speaker 4: is of course a quite unfortunate thing.

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Speaker 5: At the moment Holgar, it's.

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Speaker 6: Being reported that the far right alternative for Germany, the

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Speaker 6: AfD party, doubled its support to become the second strongest

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Speaker 6: party with twenty point eight percent of the vote. Is

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Speaker 6: the expectation that that momentum in terms of growth for

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Speaker 6: this party will continue going forward.

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Speaker 4: Well. First of all, the AfD fortunately did not do

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Speaker 4: significantly better than opinion polls had projected beforehand, and it

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Speaker 4: will now depend on the new government by maths whether

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Speaker 4: it can tackle the issues the AfD really feeds on discontent,

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Speaker 4: especially discontent about controlled migration, where quite likely the new

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Speaker 4: government will take a harsher approach, but it also needs

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Speaker 4: the return to economic growth to dent the appeal of

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Speaker 4: these parties at the left wing or the right wing

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Speaker 4: part of the political spectrum.

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Speaker 6: The economic challenges Holger talk to us about really kind

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Speaker 6: of what they are and in reality what can be

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Speaker 6: done to address them.

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Speaker 4: The economic challenges are that the core of the German economy,

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Speaker 4: the middle stand these small and medium sized companies which

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Speaker 4: often have their dominant position in global markets in a

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Speaker 4: tiny meach. That these companies are no longer investing as

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Speaker 4: much at home as they should. They are unhappy about bureaucracy,

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Speaker 4: They are unhappy about the political uncertainty that we had

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Speaker 4: in the last fifteen months during the demise of the

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Speaker 4: old government. They complained about regulations, excessive business type is

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Speaker 4: excessive payroad taxes.

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Speaker 5: So we need to do.

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Speaker 4: Quite a bit in this country to strengthen our pare.

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Speaker 4: It is less about physical space. Yes we need physical

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Speaker 4: space for the military, but it's mostly about the more

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Speaker 4: difficult outward supply side. Crow growth reforms, which include pruning

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Speaker 4: of welfare benefits so that people seem more reason to

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Speaker 4: work rather than on beyond welfare, which includes a few

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Speaker 4: other things deregulation. If we get back to that, and

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Speaker 4: there's a bit of a chance that we do get

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Speaker 4: back to that under the new government, then the German

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Speaker 4: economy can do well as long as Donald Trump, with

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Speaker 4: trade war threats and is Ukraine policy does not get

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Speaker 4: in the way.

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Speaker 3: If it's just joining us around the world.

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Speaker 2: Holger schmating a Behreenberg Bank with this was some very

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Speaker 2: good answers, a learning process and the German elections. What

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Speaker 2: it means for Europe, what it means of course for Germany,

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Speaker 2: and a curse across Atlantic what it means for America

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Speaker 2: again with Behrenberg Bank, Paul, I.

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Speaker 6: Think I speak for a lot of Americans when I

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Speaker 6: looked at the map of the voting in Germany and

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Speaker 6: it really just surprised me the strength of the far

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Speaker 6: right alternative for Germany in the eastern part of the country,

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Speaker 6: the geographic differences in political support here. Can you give

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Speaker 6: assist a little history there and how the various parties

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Speaker 6: and a coalition might try to deal with that.

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Speaker 4: Well, the map really looks stop if you look at

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Speaker 4: it in a sort of first half the post which

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Speaker 4: party came number one, Well, then we really have pretty

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Speaker 4: much a clear East West divide.

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Speaker 5: This says many reasons.

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Speaker 4: Part is that in East Germany fear of economic transformation

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Speaker 4: is more prevalent in the west. After all, the East

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Speaker 4: had after the collapse of communism in nineteen ninety a

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Speaker 4: very very painful transition. Part of that is also that

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Speaker 4: in East Germany there is more of an inclination in

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Speaker 4: the sense of let's rather do a deal with poutine

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Speaker 4: with the Russians than give money to Ukraine. The East

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Speaker 4: Germans have been occupied by the Soviet Union the Russians

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Speaker 4: of course for a long long time, so that's a

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Speaker 4: bit different. There is alls in East Germany there are

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Speaker 4: a bit of a feeling of being left behind.

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Speaker 5: As for demographic.

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Speaker 4: Means, quite a few people from the more rural regions

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Speaker 4: of East Germany have left for the cities, partly in

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Speaker 4: the West, and so this left behind feeding is more

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Speaker 4: prevalent over there. Again, the government needs to tagle deep

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Speaker 4: seated fears about migration, uncontrolled migration, and get economy going

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Speaker 4: in order to address that.

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Speaker 2: Part of the work of Bloomberg surveillance over the years folks,

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Speaker 2: and I think of American experts like Richard Clarita expert

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Speaker 2: and Germany at Columbia University here Adam Posen at the

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Speaker 2: Peterson Institute are delicate questions.

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Speaker 3: We do that now with Holger speeding Holgar the Great Fear.

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Speaker 2: Not so much in America, where I think it's distant.

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Speaker 2: But what I see in the European press is is

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Speaker 2: any sort of analogue not back to World War Two,

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Speaker 2: but back to nineteen eighteen to nineteen twenty three and

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Speaker 2: the invention of something called the National Socialist German Workers Party?

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Speaker 3: Is it overdone? Is a media ploy?

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Speaker 2: Give us a measurement, doctor Schmieting of the analogue back

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Speaker 2: to another time of the far right in Germany.

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Speaker 5: I think this is far overdone. The far right is

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Speaker 5: not like that.

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Speaker 4: We had a bit of a party, or we have

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Speaker 4: a bit of a party called bs W which tried

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Speaker 4: to combine a kind of national tinge art on migration

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Speaker 4: with a social tinge a lot more welfare. And this

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Speaker 4: bs W did not do that well. They only got

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Speaker 4: just below five percent of the votes. It is much

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Speaker 4: more a feeling of left behind. And what I said

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Speaker 4: about the remembering the pains of transition that is behind

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Speaker 4: the strength of.

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Speaker 5: The AfD in the East.

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Speaker 4: And the AfD is a nasty party and they do

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Speaker 4: have some neo aasis, but it's an exaggeration to say

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Speaker 4: we are back to day where we were in the

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Speaker 4: early nineteen thirties. I think an analogy for the political

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Speaker 4: situation in Europe is much more like the one before

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Speaker 4: World War One, you could say, where we had a

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Speaker 4: lot of nations competing with each other, rather than a

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Speaker 4: European union. What we now see is a bit of

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Speaker 4: a rise of return to nation rather than focusing on

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Speaker 4: European issues.

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Speaker 2: Doctor Schmiding, well, thank you for that. There was a

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Speaker 2: very elegant answer to a very delicate question, doctor Schmiding.

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Speaker 2: If we have an isolationist America is posited by the

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Speaker 2: President of the United States, how does that affect all

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Speaker 2: of continental Europe and particularly your Germany.

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Speaker 5: It of course affects us a lot.

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Speaker 4: First of all, we are relatively open to global trade.

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Speaker 4: We depend on global trade, and isolationist America, the protectionist

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Speaker 4: America is bad for American consumers with higher prices and

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Speaker 4: bad for our companies which can.

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Speaker 5: Deliver and do deliver great goods.

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Speaker 4: Even more importantly, an isolationist America that does no longer

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Speaker 4: have a protective umbrella over its European allies means, of

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Speaker 4: course that we a have to do much more on

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Speaker 4: our own to defend against Putin, and we really.

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Speaker 5: Should do that. But it also by putting.

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Speaker 4: Into doubt the basic premise of NATO we defend each

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Speaker 4: other against any potential aggressor. That is an encouragement to

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Speaker 4: potential aggressives, that is an encouragement to the nationalists, and

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Speaker 4: that of course is something we would not like to

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Speaker 4: see all in all. To some extent, the Trump policy

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Speaker 4: seems to boil down to I don't like the European Union.

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Speaker 4: I would rather have without the European Union, the ability

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Speaker 4: to deal with all these middle or small states in Europe,

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Speaker 4: or an individual basis, because then the American advantage would

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Speaker 4: be big in each case.

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Speaker 5: So getting rid of this kind.

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Speaker 4: Of joint market f one hundred and fifty million consumers

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Speaker 4: in Europe seems to be one of the things that's

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Speaker 4: underpinning the Trump approach to Europe, which of course is

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Speaker 4: a challenge to us, as the European Union, our common

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Speaker 4: market is the basis of our prosperity and to some

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Speaker 4: extent of our peace.

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Speaker 6: Hobert on immigration here in the US. Here in the US,

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Speaker 6: it's relatively straightforward dealing with immigration. We know who's coming

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Speaker 6: into this country, we know where they're coming in. It's

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Speaker 6: just a political will to limit that if we choose

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Speaker 6: to do so. How is it in Germany.

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Speaker 4: Well, we could close our borders much more than we

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Speaker 4: have done. Of course, that would have repercussions on our

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Speaker 4: immediate europe neighbors. Yeah, who might then be stuck with

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Speaker 4: more of those migrants who actually want to get into

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Speaker 4: the richer Germany. So there are European repercussions upon taking

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Speaker 4: a halter approach at the German borders. The ultimate solution is,

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Speaker 4: of course, a to be tougher on the German borders,

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Speaker 4: to send the message to people far away, don't even

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Speaker 4: try to come to us, because even if you make

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Speaker 4: it to our neighboring countries, you may not make.

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Speaker 5: It to Germany.

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Speaker 4: And second, to better protect the common external borders of

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Speaker 4: the European Union so that the uninvited migrants do not

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Speaker 4: even get into any of the EU member states. It

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Speaker 4: is a process that is on its way European migration

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Speaker 4: policy is being toughened and the numbers are coming down,

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Speaker 4: But of course it is this is Europe, a process

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Speaker 4: that takes time, and the populace feed off on what

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Speaker 4: they think were past mistakes rather than on what is

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Speaker 4: the current Stars.

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Speaker 2: Of Holger, thank you so much, greatly, greatly appreciate it

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Speaker 2: this morning, Holger schmading delicate questions there in Germany.

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Speaker 3: I hope that was informative. I learned a lot there.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live

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Speaker 1: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern. Listen on

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Speaker 1: Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or

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Speaker 1: watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 3: Joining us now Michael Wilson.

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Speaker 2: He's chief US equity strategist at Morgan Stanley and exceptionally

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Speaker 2: well timed here with a really smart Sunday note A

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Speaker 2: bit ago on alpha over beta. Explain the Greek letters,

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Speaker 2: Mike Wilson to us, What is alpha?

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Speaker 3: What is beta? And why does alpha win?

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Speaker 2: Hey?

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Speaker 7: Good morning, Tom.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, I think most of your listeners understand this. Beta

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Speaker 8: is sort of your market level risk, where you just

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Speaker 8: own the index and an alpha would be your stock picking.

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Speaker 7: It's that simple.

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Speaker 8: And you know what's happened in the last three months

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Speaker 8: is that the the index itself has gone sideways and

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Speaker 8: and but there's been great opportunity under the surface. And

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Speaker 8: that's really the job of most investors is to pick

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Speaker 8: stocks and try to beat people. So it's it's a

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Speaker 8: good it's a good outcome if it can sustain for

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Speaker 8: active managers.

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Speaker 7: And by the way, people say, oh.

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Speaker 8: Stock picking market, it doesn't mean it's easy, but I

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Speaker 8: mean it does feel like what we're dealing with.

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Speaker 3: Kids kills me.

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Speaker 2: He puts at the end of his notepall enjoy your Sunday.

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Speaker 2: Come on, Mike, that's a Sunday, Mike. I'm looking at

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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg launch pad and I got a one ninety

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Speaker 2: nine on the ten year real yield. My idiot ambiguity

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Speaker 2: meter is that's a slowing economy. When you look at

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Speaker 2: Seth Carpenter and companies work, do you model in a

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Speaker 2: slowing or level economy where we walk away from double

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Speaker 2: digit earnings growth?

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Speaker 7: Yeah?

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Speaker 8: Well, I mean, remember the economy is not always the

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Speaker 8: market or earnings. And what we've seen in the last

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Speaker 8: I would say a really three years is an economy

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Speaker 8: that looks fairly robust at the you know, at the

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Speaker 8: aggregate level you can talk about at the consumer level

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Speaker 8: or just in terms of GDP, but then when you

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Speaker 8: look at earnings grow for the last several years, it's

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Speaker 8: been pretty lousy for most companies until recently, recently we've

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Speaker 8: seen a pickup.

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Speaker 7: More companies are starting to grow again, and I.

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Speaker 8: Attribute this to essentially the government being you know, crowding

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Speaker 8: out if you will, much of the economy. That is

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Speaker 8: the reason we have inflation. For the main the main

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Speaker 8: reason we have inflation, too much government spending. Also it

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Speaker 8: has it has kept interest rates higher than they would

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Speaker 8: be normally. So real interest rates at two percent is

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Speaker 8: actually quite high tom as you know, for in the

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Speaker 8: last fifteen years, and we're such a financialized economy that

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Speaker 8: you know, that has had a sort of a breaking

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Speaker 8: effect on you know, businesses that don't have easy access

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Speaker 8: to capital. So I think the FED right now is

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Speaker 8: sort of in a you know, a tighter place than

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Speaker 8: they probably want to be. They would like to cut rais,

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Speaker 8: but they can't because inflation now is picking its head

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Speaker 8: up again, so they're on hold.

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Speaker 7: They're not going to raise rais in our view, but.

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Speaker 8: We're trying to find that equilibrium now, like how big

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Speaker 8: should the government be? How how can we liberate the

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Speaker 8: private economy in a way where we have better velocity

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Speaker 8: kind of in the in the real private economy than

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Speaker 8: just government.

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Speaker 6: Mike, I'm looking also your chart book where you guys

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Speaker 6: track what companies are actually saying on their conference calls,

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Speaker 6: what's top of mind for corporate America, And I guess,

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Speaker 6: not surprisingly, one of those key issues is tariffs. How

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Speaker 6: did teriffs kind of factor into kind of your view

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Speaker 6: of inflation and maybe how the FED will proceed and

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Speaker 6: how that might impact stocks.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, well, I think the FED has told you, you know,

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Speaker 8: pretty straightforward since December that the uncertainty around terrace is

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Speaker 8: another reason why they're probably going to take a pause

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Speaker 8: on the rate cutting campaign.

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Speaker 7: Now, remember, they have another lever.

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Speaker 8: They can use, which I think they will, which is

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Speaker 8: to basically end QT finally, which is you know, a

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Speaker 8: decent amount of repurchases then across the curve. They can

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Speaker 8: probably start doing that in May or June. And that's

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Speaker 8: another lever that they can sort of pull on. As

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Speaker 8: far as companies go, I mean, companies are always you know,

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Speaker 8: trying to incorporate these changes into their their business models

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Speaker 8: and how they're running their own companies. And tariffs are

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Speaker 8: front and center right now because not only is that

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Speaker 8: a potential heament, but it's also uncertainty because you know,

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Speaker 8: one day we have them, on the next day they're

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Speaker 8: being delayed, and look, that's what companies have to manage

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Speaker 8: that process. The good news is, I think in the

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Speaker 8: last round of teriffs back in eighteen a lot of

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Speaker 8: companies did relocate some manufacturing, some final assembly at the

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Speaker 8: areas like Mexico. I think that may be one of

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Speaker 8: the reasons why the President is going after Mexico because

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Speaker 8: that was kind of backdoor way of avoiding pariffs on China.

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Speaker 8: So it's just going to be, you know, six months

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Speaker 8: of uncertainty, and that's why companies are mentioning it because

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Speaker 8: you know, they don't want to get caught, you know,

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Speaker 8: in a way where they're riding too high and then

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Speaker 8: tariffs end up being a headwind for their growth expectations

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Speaker 8: and equity.

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Speaker 2: Marcus, we have Mike Wilson with us, with Morgan Stanley,

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Speaker 2: Bob Doll to join later.

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Speaker 3: We welcome all of you on your commute.

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Speaker 2: Accrastination on all over different radio platforms and on Bloomberg podcasts.

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Speaker 2: Subscribed to YouTube Working for us each and every day.

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Speaker 2: Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts on YouTube.

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Speaker 6: Paul Mike, We're gonna get We're gonna hear from Nvidia

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Speaker 6: Wednesday after the close. That's one of the last big,

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Speaker 6: big companies reporting earnings in this in this cycle. Here,

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Speaker 6: what did you take away from this quarterly's earnings cycle?

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Speaker 6: And you know, more importantly, maybe the guidance you've been

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Speaker 6: paying attention to.

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Speaker 7: Well, first of all, it shows that fourth quarter was

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Speaker 7: boon times. Now.

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Speaker 8: Some of that, once again was government fiscal deficit was

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Speaker 8: up forty percent year every year. But also there was

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Speaker 8: some excitement around you know, just a clean election, maybe

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Speaker 8: have more pro growth, you know, administration, and so there

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Speaker 8: was more activity in the fourth quarter. And so what

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Speaker 8: we're seeing now is kind of just that holling off

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Speaker 8: a bit. Then maybe we get a little ahead of ourselves.

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Speaker 8: Higher rates and hire.

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Speaker 7: A strong dollar was weighing on some of the guidance

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Speaker 7: for twenty five.

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Speaker 8: You know, companies tend to do that seasonally anyways, they

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Speaker 8: want to lower the bar a bit at the beginning

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Speaker 8: of the year. But then the other things that have

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Speaker 8: been we've been focused on really in no particular order,

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Speaker 8: terrorists as you already mentioned. Number two, we have immigration enforcement,

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Speaker 8: which has been a huge fiscal boost and also a

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Speaker 8: labor supply boost. And then we have dose, right, the

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Speaker 8: Department Government efficiency. They they're off to an aggressive start.

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Speaker 8: I'm optimistic that probably more optimistic than the most that

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Speaker 8: they can make some headway there. But remember, the more

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Speaker 8: successful they are in the short term, the more growth

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Speaker 8: negative that is in the near term before you get

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Speaker 8: to the good stuff. And then of course the positive

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Speaker 8: effects of policy like deregulation, maybe extending the tax cuts,

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Speaker 8: those come later in the year.

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Speaker 7: Those those require congressional approval, and.

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Speaker 8: So that's just not you know, that's going to take

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Speaker 8: six to twelve months, and so the bad stuff first

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Speaker 8: and good stuff comes later.

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Speaker 2: Mike will So to get back to your idea that

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Speaker 2: ELFA is the way this works, and let's just generalize

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Speaker 2: that as individual stock selection. What is the Mike Wilson process?

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Speaker 2: There is it securities research, Graham, Dot and coddlet bottom up.

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Speaker 2: Is it a cell side concept of looking at what's

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Speaker 2: going to win or is it more factor based where

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Speaker 2: you're looking at different items and trying to figure out

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Speaker 2: like say, well we'll momentum or something else win.

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Speaker 8: That's a great question, Tom, and it has changed over

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Speaker 8: over time. I think the main thing that's changed in

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Speaker 8: the institutional world anyways is the time horizon. So you know,

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Speaker 8: twenty years ago, you know, I would say institutional investors

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Speaker 8: were kind of in the six to twelve month time horizon.

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Speaker 8: It's now, you know, one to three months and in

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Speaker 8: some cases one to three days.

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Speaker 7: So that's what's.

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Speaker 8: Changed, and that means you just got to be really

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Speaker 8: laser focused on kind of news at the margin, whether

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Speaker 8: it's fundamental news around a specific company, whether it's a

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Speaker 8: macro changing event that can affect certain companies differently, so

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Speaker 8: all the things we look at. I would say that

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Speaker 8: quantitative analysis and factor analysis has probably picked up the

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Speaker 8: most most institutional investors now putting ourselves as advising them

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Speaker 8: use that tool, and it's quite helpful. As you mentioned,

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Speaker 8: price momentum is probably the most important factor variably because

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Speaker 8: everybody likes to perform, and I would say, you know,

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Speaker 8: that can also get you in trouble because what ends

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Speaker 8: up happening is you end up is I like to say,

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Speaker 8: using price as your analysts as opposed to doing the

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Speaker 8: analysis and then letting price follow. And I think that's

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Speaker 8: just the where we live in now. Everybody's short termism.

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Speaker 8: I don't think that's going to change anytime soon.

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Speaker 2: Bottle that for all of you worldwide, whatever your sophistication.

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Speaker 2: What Mike Wilson just said there and Paul Sweene and

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Speaker 2: I lived this of where three years became eighteen months

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Speaker 2: and twelve months became three months. And what are we

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Speaker 2: doing the window dress at the end of the quarter.

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Speaker 2: The short term ism now? And how can you prosper

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Speaker 2: by pushing against that? Is Mike Wilson alluded to there.

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Speaker 2: That was extraordinary.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, a lot of it. I think coincident with the

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Speaker 6: growth of hedge funds as well. Mike, what screens well

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Speaker 6: for you guys these days?

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Speaker 8: Well, getting back to the stock picking, I mean, you know,

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Speaker 8: now this particular factor always screens well, but it's extremely

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Speaker 8: important now is earning your vision breath. So companies that

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Speaker 8: are showing are showing the ability to kind of you know,

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Speaker 8: continue to raise numbers.

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Speaker 7: You're getting paid for that more now that you normally do.

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Speaker 8: You always get paid for that, but now you're getting

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Speaker 8: paid for it more and you're getting punished for it.

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Speaker 7: On the other side. The other factor that's really working

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Speaker 7: is quality.

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Speaker 8: Quality has been working really well the last two or

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Speaker 8: three years because of that sort of crowding out feature.

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Speaker 3: But in the.

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Speaker 8: Fall we saw a movement towards low quality, and then

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Speaker 8: now we're giving that back. So large cap, quality, earning

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Speaker 8: division breath. Those are the three most important factors. And

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Speaker 8: of course pricealmnum still you know, is important as well.

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Speaker 6: How About on the industry side, what stands out to

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Speaker 6: you guys these days.

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Speaker 7: So it's been consistent really since November.

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Speaker 8: Financials mainly the banks as opposed to other financials and

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Speaker 8: capital markets companies. Software particularly relative to say semi connectors

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Speaker 8: and hardware, they're less affected by tariffs, and there's some

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Speaker 8: reinvestment now as we go from the enabler to the

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Speaker 8: adoption layer for AI. That should benefit media entertainment, you know,

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Speaker 8: not just the media and entertainment and a traditional media

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Speaker 8: entertainment names are doing well.

446
00:23:26,240 --> 00:23:29,879
Speaker 7: Remember those are mostly domestic businesses, yeah, mostly domestic. Yeah.

447
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:34,119
Speaker 8: And then of course services, consumer services, which is the

448
00:23:34,160 --> 00:23:36,080
Speaker 8: one part of the private economy which is still doing

449
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:36,960
Speaker 8: quite well.

450
00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:39,200
Speaker 7: Services is doing much better than goods.

451
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:40,120
Speaker 3: Mike.

452
00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:43,200
Speaker 6: I'm guessing from your clients you get an evaluation question

453
00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:47,320
Speaker 6: or two every day. Boy, this market seems expensive. How

454
00:23:47,320 --> 00:23:48,359
Speaker 6: do you respond generally?

455
00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:53,160
Speaker 8: You know, we don't get many questions on evaluation anymore.

456
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:57,600
Speaker 8: I think people have given up on that metric. That

457
00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:02,000
Speaker 8: metric is faded, and it's importance in the short term, okay,

458
00:24:02,200 --> 00:24:04,200
Speaker 8: And as I like to say, you know, in the

459
00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:07,480
Speaker 8: short term, valuation doesn't matter at all. In the long term,

460
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:11,199
Speaker 8: it's the only thing that matters. So we've seen, you know,

461
00:24:11,240 --> 00:24:13,080
Speaker 8: as race went back through four and a half percent

462
00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:15,600
Speaker 8: of the upside, we identified that as an.

463
00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:18,480
Speaker 7: Area where valuation would matter. It has mattered, but not

464
00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:20,679
Speaker 7: to the degree that it has historically.

465
00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:22,959
Speaker 8: So I'm not sure what's going to get us, you know,

466
00:24:23,000 --> 00:24:24,919
Speaker 8: for that to become in vogue again.

467
00:24:25,720 --> 00:24:28,520
Speaker 7: But it's it's not an important factor at the moment.

468
00:24:29,280 --> 00:24:32,120
Speaker 6: Told us about breath of the market, Mike. A lot

469
00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:34,199
Speaker 6: of folks in a tors and slot today was just

470
00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:37,520
Speaker 6: out with the note from Apollo, just talking about the

471
00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:42,080
Speaker 6: concentration within this equity market, particularly in big cap US

472
00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 6: technology names, and how that's really relative to the rest

473
00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:49,000
Speaker 6: of the world just getting more and more pronounced. How

474
00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:51,080
Speaker 6: do you think about breath or lack of breath in

475
00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:51,960
Speaker 6: this market.

476
00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:54,200
Speaker 7: Well, it gets back to quality.

477
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:57,080
Speaker 8: So and I would say the as bad as the

478
00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:59,720
Speaker 8: concentration is in the US, you know, we have like

479
00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:03,520
Speaker 8: five stocks are thirty percent, it's even worse in places

480
00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:06,240
Speaker 8: like Germany where we have three stocks or thirty five percent,

481
00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:09,399
Speaker 8: or in parts of eight. And what's going on is

482
00:25:09,400 --> 00:25:12,040
Speaker 8: the same thing that's going on here, which is that

483
00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:16,520
Speaker 8: people are crowding into kind of these large camp quality stocks.

484
00:25:16,880 --> 00:25:19,800
Speaker 8: It just so happens that the US has more of them, so,

485
00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:22,520
Speaker 8: you know, but in other places of the world there's

486
00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:25,439
Speaker 8: fewer them, while the crowding is even more so, so

487
00:25:25,480 --> 00:25:26,440
Speaker 8: it's just more of the same.

488
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:27,199
Speaker 7: You know.

489
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:30,800
Speaker 8: Basically people, you know, the markets are smart. They've crowded

490
00:25:30,800 --> 00:25:34,560
Speaker 8: into what's working. What's working is large camp quality, particularly

491
00:25:34,640 --> 00:25:37,680
Speaker 8: quality growth, because they have scale and they can operate

492
00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:41,720
Speaker 8: in this world where perhaps rates are high, the government

493
00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:43,639
Speaker 8: is a big part of the economy, you have a

494
00:25:43,680 --> 00:25:47,560
Speaker 8: lot of uncertainty. Multipolar world, geopolitics is you know, kind

495
00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:51,399
Speaker 8: of putting pressure on certain regions, and you know, I

496
00:25:51,440 --> 00:25:54,439
Speaker 8: think that continues for the foreseeable future. The thing they

497
00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:57,000
Speaker 8: could change that which I'm getting a little excited about

498
00:25:57,040 --> 00:25:59,600
Speaker 8: it is if we can shrink the government. So imagine

499
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:02,920
Speaker 8: this of a recession in government. I'm not sure that

500
00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:06,120
Speaker 8: that would be that bad for the private economy. I'm

501
00:26:06,119 --> 00:26:07,840
Speaker 8: not sure we're going to get that, but if we did,

502
00:26:08,560 --> 00:26:11,040
Speaker 8: that would potentially change that dynamic.

503
00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:15,520
Speaker 2: Mike Wilson very quickly here talk about enthusiasm. I mean

504
00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:19,240
Speaker 2: Michigan State taking up Michigan and basketball. That was like

505
00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:21,080
Speaker 2: Big Ten Classic, wasn't it.

506
00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:25,000
Speaker 8: Well, there's a classic for if you're not a Michigan fan.

507
00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:29,679
Speaker 8: But we can still come back. The Big Ten is

508
00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:32,080
Speaker 8: always competitive time, as I like to say, in both

509
00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:34,160
Speaker 8: basketball and football and other sports as well.

510
00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:37,600
Speaker 7: So and Big Blue has had a good run.

511
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:41,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean they're in second place. I mean they

512
00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:43,840
Speaker 2: have the two teams up top of Big Ten. Is important?

513
00:26:43,880 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 2: Why is USC in the Big Ten? Does Michael Wilson understand?

514
00:26:49,200 --> 00:26:50,440
Speaker 3: Please tell the kids from.

515
00:26:50,320 --> 00:26:52,479
Speaker 6: Los Angeles to come all the way to Piscataway, New

516
00:26:52,560 --> 00:26:54,000
Speaker 6: Jersey to play basketball.

517
00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:57,800
Speaker 3: Oregon, it's in the Big Ten. Mike Wilson, this is Unamerican.

518
00:26:57,880 --> 00:27:00,720
Speaker 2: I hope Michigan takes every victory from the way pushes

519
00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:03,000
Speaker 2: those Westerners.

520
00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:02,760
Speaker 3: Out of it.

521
00:27:03,040 --> 00:27:05,960
Speaker 2: Mister Wilson is with Morgan Stanley. Thank you so much,

522
00:27:06,240 --> 00:27:07,000
Speaker 2: Mike Wilson.

523
00:27:07,320 --> 00:27:11,200
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

524
00:27:11,240 --> 00:27:14,240
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android

525
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:17,320
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen

526
00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:20,639
Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.

527
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:23,879
Speaker 1: Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

528
00:27:24,320 --> 00:27:25,240
Speaker 3: So what you got to do.

529
00:27:25,240 --> 00:27:27,960
Speaker 2: For Bob Dahl, particularly having Mike Wilson and then Bob

530
00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:32,000
Speaker 2: Dole's great Bob Dahll with is the Crossmark Global right now?

531
00:27:32,040 --> 00:27:34,399
Speaker 3: Bob, you know what I did. I did all imitson.

532
00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:37,400
Speaker 2: So I go back to what I call the Guadalcanal

533
00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:40,639
Speaker 2: Low of nineteen forty two, and you strap out a

534
00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:45,360
Speaker 2: log Dow Jones Industrial average and we're really not all

535
00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:49,760
Speaker 2: that extended. I mean, we're out one standard deviation. But

536
00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:53,399
Speaker 2: do you see an extension of prices right now? Do

537
00:27:53,520 --> 00:27:56,359
Speaker 2: you see an exuberance right now that I'm missing?

538
00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:00,560
Speaker 9: Well, the way I see the exuberance, if there is

539
00:28:00,600 --> 00:28:03,639
Speaker 9: any I think you're raising a good question is about valuation.

540
00:28:04,400 --> 00:28:04,880
Speaker 10: It's rare.

541
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:07,359
Speaker 9: We see stock selling it twenty two to twenty three

542
00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:10,960
Speaker 9: times earnings unless we're in a recession and have depressed earnings.

543
00:28:11,280 --> 00:28:13,720
Speaker 10: Earnings are far from depressed, of course.

544
00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:17,080
Speaker 9: And it's likely that those earnings are going to fall

545
00:28:17,160 --> 00:28:18,280
Speaker 9: short of expectations.

546
00:28:18,720 --> 00:28:21,880
Speaker 2: I look the total return from that nineteen forty two

547
00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:26,199
Speaker 2: low Paul dow Jones seven point seven percent here, So

548
00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:28,040
Speaker 2: there's that single digital return.

549
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:30,640
Speaker 6: Worth exactly Bob. As Tom mentioned, we were just talking

550
00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:32,679
Speaker 6: to Mike Wilson Morgan Stanley and I asked him, you know,

551
00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:35,399
Speaker 6: how many valuation questions does he get every day? And

552
00:28:35,440 --> 00:28:38,760
Speaker 6: he says not many. Is that in and of itself

553
00:28:38,920 --> 00:28:39,880
Speaker 6: a reason for concern?

554
00:28:41,000 --> 00:28:41,440
Speaker 10: It is?

555
00:28:41,520 --> 00:28:43,760
Speaker 9: I find the same thing went out on the stump

556
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:49,280
Speaker 9: talking to financial advisors. Very few questions about valuation. It's

557
00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:53,400
Speaker 9: more about, you know, the Trump agenda and AI and

558
00:28:53,760 --> 00:28:57,640
Speaker 9: other subjects that generally the looking for a positive answer.

559
00:28:57,880 --> 00:29:00,000
Speaker 10: They don't want to hear the yellow flag of value.

560
00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:03,560
Speaker 6: So how do you try to how do you try

561
00:29:03,560 --> 00:29:07,480
Speaker 6: to frame that valuation discussion as a either a headwind,

562
00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:09,480
Speaker 6: a risk or maybe not so much.

563
00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:14,800
Speaker 9: Yeah, My view is the valuation is a bad short

564
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:17,960
Speaker 9: term indicator. We all know that, but you can look

565
00:29:18,000 --> 00:29:21,160
Speaker 9: at the long term returns one, three, five, ten years

566
00:29:21,640 --> 00:29:25,640
Speaker 9: after certain pe ratios, and it's over the five and

567
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:28,520
Speaker 9: ten year periods. It's a great indicator. So it doesn't

568
00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:31,160
Speaker 9: tell us markets are going to have subpar returns starting

569
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 9: tomorrow for the next three months, but it could mean

570
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:36,040
Speaker 9: for the next three to five years.

571
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:37,520
Speaker 3: What do you do with MAG seven?

572
00:29:37,640 --> 00:29:39,840
Speaker 2: I mean, you know, Bob, you're too young to remember

573
00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:45,240
Speaker 2: nifty to fifty, but I'm sorry. Maybe it's a nifty

574
00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:47,880
Speaker 2: seven is what we ought to call it. Yep, that's

575
00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:49,320
Speaker 2: what people own, right.

576
00:29:50,240 --> 00:29:51,880
Speaker 10: Yeah, there's a lot of ownership.

577
00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:57,920
Speaker 9: My accountant recommendation is own some MAG seven, but be

578
00:29:58,120 --> 00:29:59,600
Speaker 9: underweight those benchmarks.

579
00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:00,400
Speaker 10: It's it's a.

580
00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:04,160
Speaker 9: Big, big, big waiting, as you know. And my fundamental

581
00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:08,240
Speaker 9: backing is to look at quarterly projections of consensus numbers

582
00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:11,680
Speaker 9: for the MAG seven and then the other four ninety three.

583
00:30:12,200 --> 00:30:17,600
Speaker 9: MAG seven growth rates are slowing for ninety three are rising,

584
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:20,320
Speaker 9: and that tells me I want to be underweight the

585
00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:22,280
Speaker 9: MAG seven and overweight the four ninety three.

586
00:30:23,800 --> 00:30:25,720
Speaker 6: All right, we're about eighty eighty five percent of the

587
00:30:25,720 --> 00:30:30,880
Speaker 6: way through this earnings season here, Bob, what's your takeaway here.

588
00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:31,560
Speaker 3: What have you heard?

589
00:30:31,680 --> 00:30:33,400
Speaker 6: What's the guidance kind of suggest to you.

590
00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:38,920
Speaker 9: The numbers have been very, very good, with a few

591
00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:43,320
Speaker 9: notable and visible exceptions. As you know, the banks, the

592
00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:47,280
Speaker 9: financials out of the gates were just amazing numbers. The

593
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:51,200
Speaker 9: problem in my view is revenues are up five percent,

594
00:30:51,320 --> 00:30:54,880
Speaker 9: earnings are up fifteen percent. I can't expect margins to

595
00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:59,200
Speaker 9: expand at that pace going forward. That's almost what's necessary

596
00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:03,360
Speaker 9: to eke the twenty twenty five and now early twenty

597
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:07,800
Speaker 9: twenty six numbers, they're for strong Earnie's gains.

598
00:31:07,880 --> 00:31:08,959
Speaker 10: I think they're overstated.

599
00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:09,520
Speaker 6: Bob.

600
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:10,000
Speaker 3: We've got a.

601
00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:13,240
Speaker 2: Crushing market drawdown from the recent higher down two point

602
00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:16,520
Speaker 2: one percent. I'm absolutely just crushing.

603
00:31:17,200 --> 00:31:19,440
Speaker 3: This came up this weekend, and it's a phrase from

604
00:31:19,640 --> 00:31:22,960
Speaker 3: you know, years ago, Bob dog. If we get like a.

605
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:26,560
Speaker 2: Ten or twelve percent correction, an eight percent correction, dare

606
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:27,840
Speaker 2: I say fourteen percent?

607
00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:33,760
Speaker 3: South? Do shares move from weekends into strong hands? What

608
00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:34,600
Speaker 3: does that mean?

609
00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:38,600
Speaker 9: So generally, as you know, as we go down, more

610
00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:40,680
Speaker 9: and more people want to sell. They don't sell at

611
00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:43,240
Speaker 9: the top, they sell as things are moving down. So

612
00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:45,840
Speaker 9: it would concern me somewhat, but I come back to

613
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:49,520
Speaker 9: not just evaluations, but the fundamentals. Are we in the

614
00:31:49,560 --> 00:31:52,720
Speaker 9: face now of some sort of growth scare. Whether the

615
00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:56,520
Speaker 9: whether the scare leads to actual slowing growth, who knows.

616
00:31:56,560 --> 00:31:59,440
Speaker 9: But when you look at recent housing data and the

617
00:31:59,520 --> 00:32:04,920
Speaker 9: bad tail sales, the consumer sentiment numbers the housing data.

618
00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:06,400
Speaker 9: As I already mentioned.

619
00:32:06,560 --> 00:32:09,240
Speaker 10: You have to wonder somewhat if things are going to

620
00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:11,200
Speaker 10: slow down a bit. My guess is they probably will.

621
00:32:11,360 --> 00:32:12,560
Speaker 3: Bob Doll, thank you so much.

622
00:32:12,640 --> 00:32:15,200
Speaker 2: The cross mark this morning just a wonderful way to

623
00:32:15,200 --> 00:32:16,680
Speaker 2: get Monday started.

624
00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:19,640
Speaker 3: Here.

625
00:32:22,040 --> 00:32:25,920
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday

626
00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:29,000
Speaker 1: starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Corplay and Android

627
00:32:29,000 --> 00:32:32,000
Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch

628
00:32:32,080 --> 00:32:35,040
Speaker 1: us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the

629
00:32:35,040 --> 00:32:36,080
Speaker 1: Bloomberg terminal.

630
00:32:36,240 --> 00:32:39,560
Speaker 3: The daily front page is the Lisa Mantale Hour. She

631
00:32:39,720 --> 00:32:41,680
Speaker 3: was at one am working on this. What do you have?

632
00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:42,080
Speaker 2: Lisa?

633
00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:44,320
Speaker 11: This is starting with the Wall Street Journal. So they're

634
00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:47,240
Speaker 11: saying there's a shift in the housing market. Buyers are

635
00:32:47,400 --> 00:32:50,400
Speaker 11: finally starting to get the upper hand again. Redford is

636
00:32:50,400 --> 00:32:52,320
Speaker 11: saying the average home now changing hands for less than

637
00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:55,360
Speaker 11: two percent less than the price on the listing two percent. Yes,

638
00:32:55,520 --> 00:32:59,840
Speaker 11: So the reason why I know growing lists of supply

639
00:32:59,880 --> 00:33:01,600
Speaker 11: of home on the market, the houses on the market

640
00:33:01,600 --> 00:33:05,040
Speaker 11: are there a bit longer. The most buyer friendly area

641
00:33:05,120 --> 00:33:09,360
Speaker 11: now is actually the Florida market, Miami and Fort Lauderdale. Yes,

642
00:33:10,040 --> 00:33:12,080
Speaker 11: because the things are starting to change here, but it's

643
00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:14,719
Speaker 11: not everywhere. They also point that out. They point out like,

644
00:33:14,760 --> 00:33:17,240
Speaker 11: for example, wike Off, New Jersey, there was this house

645
00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:20,960
Speaker 11: there that sold three hundred thousand dollars over the asking

646
00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:23,680
Speaker 11: price for all cash. So it kind of depends where

647
00:33:23,680 --> 00:33:26,160
Speaker 11: your live. But they're say they're starting to see this shift.

648
00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:28,840
Speaker 11: I'm starting to see it a little bit too. On

649
00:33:28,880 --> 00:33:32,280
Speaker 11: a personal love because I've been actively looking. I've been

650
00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:35,120
Speaker 11: outpriced in New Jersey. But you know what, I went

651
00:33:35,120 --> 00:33:36,480
Speaker 11: to Pennsylvania and I went.

652
00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:38,480
Speaker 6: Under that and I went under it.

653
00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:40,640
Speaker 11: So now you have the extra, you know, side place

654
00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:43,000
Speaker 11: for the family to enjoy on the weekends, and you

655
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:44,960
Speaker 11: still get your place, but you don't have to be

656
00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:47,360
Speaker 11: so competitive and be outpriced and frustrated.

657
00:33:47,600 --> 00:33:49,480
Speaker 3: What do you see on the shore, I mean it's

658
00:33:49,480 --> 00:33:50,240
Speaker 3: just crazy.

659
00:33:51,080 --> 00:33:53,480
Speaker 6: Yeah, and people buy something if it wasn't built in

660
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:55,560
Speaker 6: the last ten or fifteen years. They knock it down

661
00:33:55,600 --> 00:33:58,080
Speaker 6: and build something. Yes, yes, that's amazing.

662
00:33:58,520 --> 00:34:01,160
Speaker 11: Okay, so something new at Springs Raining they were testing

663
00:34:01,200 --> 00:34:04,600
Speaker 11: out the robot empires. They had it in the miners

664
00:34:04,600 --> 00:34:06,040
Speaker 11: like the past few years.

665
00:34:06,120 --> 00:34:07,760
Speaker 6: Yeah, but I see.

666
00:34:07,800 --> 00:34:09,960
Speaker 11: The thing is is that it's not actually erupt so

667
00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:12,600
Speaker 11: the umpire is there. The only people that can challenge

668
00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:14,040
Speaker 11: it is a picture of the catcher of the batter.

669
00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:16,239
Speaker 11: Those are only three people that can challenge it, and

670
00:34:16,320 --> 00:34:18,400
Speaker 11: when they do, you only get two misses.

671
00:34:18,520 --> 00:34:20,200
Speaker 6: Kind of like football. I guess it's the same thing.

672
00:34:21,120 --> 00:34:23,440
Speaker 11: So that's a difference. But what they're finding is that

673
00:34:23,480 --> 00:34:25,400
Speaker 11: they're not sure if it's going to work or not.

674
00:34:25,480 --> 00:34:27,440
Speaker 11: I mean, it could be in twenty twenty six, but

675
00:34:27,840 --> 00:34:30,520
Speaker 11: do people want this? Do the fans want it?

676
00:34:30,520 --> 00:34:31,800
Speaker 6: Do the players want it?

677
00:34:31,800 --> 00:34:35,520
Speaker 2: It's not as clean as the incredible rule changes of

678
00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:36,279
Speaker 2: two years ago.

679
00:34:36,400 --> 00:34:39,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's all there is Terry.

680
00:34:38,880 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 2: Francona, the smartest guy in the planet. Do you know

681
00:34:41,600 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 2: he's down the Reds. He's out there, you know with

682
00:34:45,040 --> 00:34:46,000
Speaker 2: the Cincinnati Reds.

683
00:34:46,080 --> 00:34:46,520
Speaker 6: A lot of.

684
00:34:48,120 --> 00:34:49,919
Speaker 2: Terry Franconis is we're not going to do it because

685
00:34:49,920 --> 00:34:52,840
Speaker 2: it's not going to be in the majors this year, right, distract.

686
00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:54,080
Speaker 3: So I think it's like a year ahead.

687
00:34:54,600 --> 00:34:55,480
Speaker 6: Yeah, there's maybe.

688
00:34:56,920 --> 00:34:56,960
Speaker 7: Not.

689
00:34:57,200 --> 00:34:58,840
Speaker 11: But but the thing is is if you're a batter,

690
00:34:58,920 --> 00:35:00,560
Speaker 11: you know, and you see it and and you know

691
00:35:00,680 --> 00:35:02,800
Speaker 11: that it's not a strike, but you you're mad and

692
00:35:02,840 --> 00:35:05,040
Speaker 11: you don't want to strike out, and you challenge it, Well,

693
00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:06,960
Speaker 11: you're risking materials.

694
00:35:06,960 --> 00:35:08,520
Speaker 3: You're going to have this or we're going to have

695
00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:09,919
Speaker 3: you know, calling the balls.

696
00:35:10,440 --> 00:35:13,359
Speaker 11: So I don't know, I don't know that's parents will

697
00:35:13,360 --> 00:35:14,000
Speaker 11: take that one.

698
00:35:14,480 --> 00:35:14,840
Speaker 6: Okay.

699
00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:18,360
Speaker 11: The Mark German he was were had in the in

700
00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:20,760
Speaker 11: the in the studio last week. Okay, so his Power

701
00:35:20,760 --> 00:35:24,120
Speaker 11: On newsletter actually asked a question, do you go for

702
00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:27,240
Speaker 11: the cheaper iPhone or do you go for the regular,

703
00:35:27,280 --> 00:35:29,120
Speaker 11: the normal one? And he actually breaks it down. We're

704
00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:31,760
Speaker 11: talking about the iPhone sixteen E. So it's five hundred

705
00:35:31,760 --> 00:35:34,120
Speaker 11: and ninety nine dollars one hundred and seventy more than

706
00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:36,320
Speaker 11: the iPhone se that it's replacing.

707
00:35:36,920 --> 00:35:38,240
Speaker 5: So should you buy it?

708
00:35:38,320 --> 00:35:40,239
Speaker 11: The price difference he said, it amounts so an extra

709
00:35:40,320 --> 00:35:42,120
Speaker 11: eight dollars a month if you have that two year

710
00:35:42,160 --> 00:35:44,839
Speaker 11: installment plan. And he says, oh, you're not missing much

711
00:35:44,880 --> 00:35:47,760
Speaker 11: by buying the sixteen over the regular. He feels confident

712
00:35:47,800 --> 00:35:50,960
Speaker 11: recommending the cheaper option as a good enough phone. So

713
00:35:51,080 --> 00:35:54,120
Speaker 11: his basic advice here it is, if your current iPhone

714
00:35:54,200 --> 00:35:56,840
Speaker 11: is out of date, right you're paying for new devices

715
00:35:56,920 --> 00:35:59,359
Speaker 11: up front, you get the sixteen eight. But if you're

716
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:01,840
Speaker 11: looking to upgrad to the more recent phone with extra

717
00:36:01,880 --> 00:36:04,920
Speaker 11: bells and whistles, paying on an installment plan, you spring

718
00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:07,480
Speaker 11: for the standard iPhone sixteen. So he kind of breaks

719
00:36:07,480 --> 00:36:07,719
Speaker 11: it down.

720
00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:08,120
Speaker 4: I mean.

721
00:36:09,560 --> 00:36:11,960
Speaker 6: Issues he put. He says, Look the various features. I

722
00:36:12,000 --> 00:36:14,759
Speaker 6: didn't even know they were there. It's at like.

723
00:36:14,880 --> 00:36:17,600
Speaker 11: If you camera features, video features, those kind of things,

724
00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:20,319
Speaker 11: phone call with Okay.

725
00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:22,200
Speaker 2: Well, thank you Mark German for being with us and

726
00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:26,600
Speaker 2: profound with his release this morning of job formation in America.

727
00:36:26,680 --> 00:36:29,520
Speaker 3: Lisa Mateo, thank you so much the newspapers.

728
00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:34,759
Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

729
00:36:34,880 --> 00:36:38,680
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730
00:36:38,680 --> 00:36:42,520
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731
00:36:42,680 --> 00:36:46,480
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732
00:36:46,800 --> 00:36:49,880
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733
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:52,200
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