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Speaker 1: This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. What is up, everybody,

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Speaker 1: It's me Jason McIntyre here Straight Fire, Friday, October twenty three.

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Speaker 1: The end of the work week is here, and the

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Speaker 1: weekend is upon us, folks. We've got three best bets

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Speaker 1: at the end of the podcast. You'll have to wait

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Speaker 1: for all the fun. Before that, we got a great

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Speaker 1: interview coming up with Aaron Shots of football Outsiders. Really

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Speaker 1: sharp mind intelligent individual. I learned during the podcast he

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Speaker 1: went to Brown University and was an ECON major. Fun fact,

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Speaker 1: my wife is an ECON major. I'm very proud of her.

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Speaker 1: She's smarter than me. You always got to marry up.

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Speaker 1: Let's get to Thursday Night football, shall we? And what

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Speaker 1: a train wreck of a game that was. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I have a lot of thoughts. I could go deep

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Speaker 1: on this, but it just made me too angry, so

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna kind of raining in a little bit. Uh.

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Speaker 1: Big picture, the Giants are leading the Eagles twenty one

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Speaker 1: to ten with four forty five left in the game.

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Speaker 1: They're leading by eleven with a little over four minutes

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Speaker 1: left in the game, and they lose. That was the

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Speaker 1: game that the New York Jets. Yes, the New York

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Speaker 1: Jets needed the Giants to get that, so the Giants

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Speaker 1: would have two wins on the Jets and the Jets

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Speaker 1: could breathe easy in the chase for Trevor Lawrence. Of course,

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Speaker 1: the Giants gagged away. You look at the Giant schedule,

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Speaker 1: it's brutal. They're not winning five games. They're gonna be

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Speaker 1: in the mix for the number one pick, and I

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Speaker 1: don't listen. I don't really know if you can blame

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Speaker 1: anyone other than Danny Dimes and Evan Ingram. I mean,

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Speaker 1: Danny Dimes is he is what we thought he was.

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Speaker 1: He's a turnover machine. And you know, Rob G's got

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Speaker 1: an interesting take on Danny Dimes that he'll get too shortly.

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Speaker 1: But this is a guy who once again interception okay,

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Speaker 1: losers a fumble at the end of the game. That's

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Speaker 1: what he does. I mean, he had one of the

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Speaker 1: funniest moments of the year. He breaks off an eighty

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Speaker 1: yard run. He's streaking to the end zone ten yards

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Speaker 1: ahead of any defender and he trips at about the

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Speaker 1: twenty eight yard line and falls intide the ten yard life.

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Speaker 1: It's like a stumbling, bumbling comedy of errors. I thought

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Speaker 1: it was funnier than the butt fumble. Now I'm a

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Speaker 1: Jets fan, so a lot of people are going to disagree,

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Speaker 1: but I was just I could not stop laughing. I mean,

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Speaker 1: he's in the open field. My kids are watching, and

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Speaker 1: they felt bad. Oh dad, Oh no, what happened. Tripped

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Speaker 1: on a blade of grass? Guys, it happens. I mean,

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Speaker 1: Danny dines. But listen, the guy really want to go

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Speaker 1: after his Evan Ingram. Okay, so they draft this kid

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Speaker 1: out of Old miss and he was I mean, awesome prospect.

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Speaker 1: Looks the part six three, two forties. Guys rocked up.

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Speaker 1: They no, no tight end in the history of football

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Speaker 1: has carried the football more times than Evan Ingram. I mean,

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Speaker 1: they love a good end around to Evan Ingram and

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Speaker 1: he's got a pass. They're up by five and six.

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Speaker 1: Evan Ingram shakes the living daylights out of Will Parks.

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Speaker 1: The Eagles dB at the line of scrimmage beats this

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Speaker 1: guy on a great release, sticks his hands out. Danny dives,

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Speaker 1: puts it on his hands, and he drops the ball.

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Speaker 1: Evan was right off his stone hands. It's like, dude,

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Speaker 1: I mean, I didn't even see much of an effort.

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Speaker 1: I don't want to say the alligator armed it, because

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Speaker 1: if you look at the replay, his arms are like out.

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Speaker 1: He doesn't totally bring him back, but it's a drop

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Speaker 1: and you know, you could see at that moment, oh boy,

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Speaker 1: this is gonna get dicey. They punted, and on the

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Speaker 1: punt to Sean Jackson, who is straight up stealing money

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Speaker 1: from the Eagles. He signed a three year deal worth

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Speaker 1: somewhere in the neighborhood of seven point nine mill, so

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Speaker 1: basically three years, twenty eight million. Okay, he is now

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Speaker 1: made because it looks like a season is over. On

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Speaker 1: that punt return, he gets bent back. I couldn't tell

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Speaker 1: if it was an ankle or inn, but he got

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Speaker 1: messed up. He's hurt. It was a dirty hit too,

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Speaker 1: and they got fifteen yards. We'll get to that in

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Speaker 1: a sect. But I looked at up, folks, Deshan Jackson,

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Speaker 1: who played a game and a half to start the

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Speaker 1: season then got hurt. This is his first game back

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Speaker 1: in two seasons. Since signing that contract, he has played

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Speaker 1: a handful of games. He has nineteen catches, and he

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Speaker 1: has made seventeen million dollars just wrap your mind around that.

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Speaker 1: DeShawn Jackson, by the way, turns thirty four in December.

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Speaker 1: The Eagles have an out after this year, and there

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Speaker 1: is zero chance he's coming back. I can tell you

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Speaker 1: that right now. Anyways, So Jackson gets hurt on the

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Speaker 1: late hit fifteen yards and away we go. And this

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Speaker 1: is where I probably should bring up Carson Wentz, who listen,

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Speaker 1: I mean, we wouldn't want to do like. Carson Wentz

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Speaker 1: is not a good quarterback, but he once again delivers

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Speaker 1: late in the fourth quarter. Carson Wentz came back against

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Speaker 1: the Ravens and nearly stole the game in the fourth

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Speaker 1: quarter gainst the Giants. He needed some help from Evan Ingram.

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Speaker 1: Carson Wentz delivered. He needed that drive. He made the plays,

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Speaker 1: um you know game when he touchdown passed to Boston

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Speaker 1: Scott and I know he's playing with backups. You look

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Speaker 1: on that final drive he hits somebody named Rogers, Ricardo

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Speaker 1: Rodgers filling in for uh Or Arths the tight end.

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Speaker 1: He had a bomb to John high Tower, who all

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Speaker 1: he does is drop passes. He's terrible. Greg Ward, the

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Speaker 1: converted quarterback who was a quarterback at Houston in college

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Speaker 1: and my guy, Travis Fulham full Ham, I think I

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Speaker 1: gotta say his name, right. I got a text from

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Speaker 1: or I got a d M from I think one

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Speaker 1: of his family members like yo Jay, it's full Ham.

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Speaker 1: Travis full Ham eleven targets only five catches. He's their

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Speaker 1: best receiver. And Carson Wentz moves the ball down, they score,

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Speaker 1: they don't get the two pointer. Danny Dimes fumbles. That's

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Speaker 1: a rap. The one thing I have to say, my

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Speaker 1: big takeaway from this game, besides losing the bet on

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Speaker 1: the Eagles, they they should have covered this game, folks.

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Speaker 1: I'm sorry. The Philadelphia Eagles had more first sounds than

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Speaker 1: the Giants seventeen. They had more total yards, they had

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Speaker 1: more yards per play, and this is what gets me,

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Speaker 1: they wouldn't a turnover margin. Eagles had one turnover. Giants

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Speaker 1: had three in the red zone. The Eagles the record

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Speaker 1: says three and eight, but the last one doesn't count.

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Speaker 1: It was after Danny Dimes fumbled. The Eagles took a knee.

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Speaker 1: Take that one out. They were three for seven in

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Speaker 1: the red zone. They went in there twice and got

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Speaker 1: no points. They had a miss chip shot field goal

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Speaker 1: and the one play that really got me Okay, fourth

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Speaker 1: and goal from I think it was like the two

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Speaker 1: Doug Peterson, who is lost without Frank Reich. I think

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Speaker 1: we can all admit that Frank Reich was his offensive coordinator.

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Speaker 1: He left after the Super Bowl to coach of Colts. Okay,

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Speaker 1: Frank Reich is dialing it up with Rivers. Doug Peterson

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Speaker 1: looks absolutely lost. He calls, are you ready for this?

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Speaker 1: A jump ball to Hakim Butler who Hakim Butler, who

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Speaker 1: was a star at Iowa State two years ago, gets

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Speaker 1: drafted by Arizona, hurt in the preseason, doesn't play. They

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Speaker 1: cut him, the Eagles sign him folks. Doug Peterson through

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Speaker 1: a jump ball on fourth and goal to a guy

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Speaker 1: who has never been targeted in his NFL career zero

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Speaker 1: career NFL catches in a tight divisional game at the

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Speaker 1: goal line, you're losing to the Giants, you need points,

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Speaker 1: and you throw a jump ball to a guy who's

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Speaker 1: never been targeted in his career. At that point, I'm

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Speaker 1: off Doug Peterson. I cannot respect the guy. They're comeback

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Speaker 1: was thanks to Carson Wentz. I'm done with Doug Peterson.

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Speaker 1: That play call alone has to be finished with him,

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Speaker 1: I know you want a Super Bowl. That's great, he

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Speaker 1: and he said, what is he an Andy Reid guy?

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Speaker 1: Everybody loves Doug Peterson. I'm done with him, all right, Rob,

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Speaker 1: hit me with your fun fact about Carson Wentz because

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Speaker 1: we disagree here. The Carson Wentz is still an upper

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Speaker 1: echelon quarterback. I don't know if he's elite, but he's

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Speaker 1: definitely in a top out of thirty two. Yes, he's

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Speaker 1: in the top fifteen. He's in the top fifteen. And

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Speaker 1: at one point Carson Wentz was sixteen excuse me, fifteen

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Speaker 1: of thirty one passing, so he was terrible. I mean

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Speaker 1: the last two drives he's five of seven for a

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Speaker 1: buck twenty one and two teams. Yes, And and the

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Speaker 1: one thing I'll say about Carson Wentz is ever since

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Speaker 1: he got hurt and then it wasn't. The thing about

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Speaker 1: this is that's not just him that's been hurt. You know,

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Speaker 1: he had the injuries every season, he had the torn knee,

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Speaker 1: everything like that. The Eagles since their Super Bowl run

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Speaker 1: and even including that season, have been one of the

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Speaker 1: worst luck injury teams in all of football. And I

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Speaker 1: think Carson wentz Is problem is that he's putting too

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Speaker 1: much pressure on himself. He's trying to win the game

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Speaker 1: with every throw. He's holding the ball too long because

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Speaker 1: he's always looking for the big play. And I think

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Speaker 1: that the problem is that Doug Peterson, who you just trashed,

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Speaker 1: is not doing a good job of scheming him out

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Speaker 1: of that, of saying, you know what, rather than designing

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Speaker 1: these sevenths that drops and always been in the shotgun,

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Speaker 1: maybe we'll get you a five yard out. Maybe we'll

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Speaker 1: get you a three yard pass over the middle and

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Speaker 1: get some yack yardage. And I think Carson Wentz, because

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Speaker 1: he knows his team is so beat up, he knows

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Speaker 1: that he's gonna have to put everything on his shoulders

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Speaker 1: to win, he tries to play superman ball a little

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Speaker 1: too much. And there's times like in the middle two

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Speaker 1: quarters of the game where it looks terrible. But the

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Speaker 1: other times and those little glimmers that you've see now

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Speaker 1: the last three games, especially late, where it just clicks

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Speaker 1: and you watch him, you're like, yeah, there's not too

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Speaker 1: many guys who can do what he can do. That

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Speaker 1: that fifty nine yard throw that he threw to a

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Speaker 1: guy never he's heard of the High Tower down the

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Speaker 1: right sideline, dropped it right in the bucket that the

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Speaker 1: touchdown past to my guy Boston Scott holding it down

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Speaker 1: for all the short d represent shout out to Boston

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Speaker 1: Scott to win the game. Even Troy Aigman said in

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Speaker 1: the broadcast, you can't even see the receiver where he's

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Speaker 1: throwing it because uh Peppers was all over it, so

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Speaker 1: you couldn't even see the short. Boston Scott's going down

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Speaker 1: to the pylon and he dropped it where only his

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Speaker 1: guy could get it. Carson Wentz. If you're going to

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Speaker 1: jump off the Wentz wagon, go ahead. But I'm still

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Speaker 1: righting this bad boy. Once they get healthy, I think

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Speaker 1: that they're going to be a real problem. I will

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Speaker 1: give you some of that. Okay. When you look at

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Speaker 1: the offensive line, it's decimated. He's got his center Kelsey Lane. Johnson,

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Speaker 1: by the way, got hurt again early in the game.

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Speaker 1: Might have been first or second drive left. I don't

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Speaker 1: know if he came back, and you know he's down

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Speaker 1: his best guard, Brooks Dillard got hurt there. It's it's

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Speaker 1: brutal upfront, and I get that. But the stats Football

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Speaker 1: Outsiders guy Aaron chats on later in the podcast. If

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Speaker 1: you look at the numbers heading into this week, according

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Speaker 1: to the d v o A metric, Carson Wentz ranked

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Speaker 1: thirty second among all quarterbacks in the league. If you

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Speaker 1: go to qb R Carson Rentz, Carson Wentz ranked twenty seven.

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Speaker 1: Now that's shockingly ahead of Joe Burrow and Cam Newton. Um.

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Speaker 1: We're not going to talk about where Sam Donald renks

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Speaker 1: because he's down there. Um. But I between the taking,

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Speaker 1: the sacks, the interceptions, I don't know, it's tough to

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Speaker 1: measure a man. It's really tough for me to respect

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Speaker 1: the guy when you watch how poorly he's playing. But

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Speaker 1: as you said, the injuries are a big factor. I

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Speaker 1: don't know what do we have to just reserve judgment?

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Speaker 1: And Carson Wentz like not judge him on this season

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Speaker 1: because he has no offensive line and no weapons, I

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Speaker 1: would hope. So, I mean, the guy is doing the

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Speaker 1: equivalent of Lebron James going against the Warriors that first

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Speaker 1: season with Matthew della Vedova as his second best player.

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Speaker 1: I mean, their best offensive weapon is the guy you've

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Speaker 1: been saying his name wrong for a month half. Their

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Speaker 1: second best offensive weapon is my height. And I'm five

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Speaker 1: seven with shoes on. So I mean, you gotta give

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Speaker 1: him some kind of leeway. He he really is a

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Speaker 1: one man band. For everything we said about Dak Prescott

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Speaker 1: I think that they still got they got a decent

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Speaker 1: enough offensive line. You know, the San Francisco forty Niners.

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Speaker 1: Everyone's talking about how injured they are. They still have

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Speaker 1: a lot of their weapons too. They still have their

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Speaker 1: left tackle. I mean, Carson Wentz is doing this with

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Speaker 1: duct tape and rubber bands, and he's been in every

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Speaker 1: I mean, they're they're the tallest midget in the NFC least.

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Speaker 1: But according to Pro Football Focus, Carson Wentz eight out

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Speaker 1: of thirty six graded quarterbacks, a notch above Jimmy g

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Speaker 1: My guy Donald, Oh my gosh, Baker Mayfield a thirty one. Yikes, Uh,

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Speaker 1: your boy, Derek carr Um, wha, Derrick Carter, he's not

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Speaker 1: playing that poorly, Asky, and you're a Raiders guy. You're

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Speaker 1: a Raiders guys. He's good man. We'll see Tampa Bay

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Speaker 1: Bucks this weekend. Alright, so with without his offensive line.

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Speaker 1: To let me ask, Rob, g um, did you switch

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Speaker 1: over from the game to the debate at all? Um?

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Speaker 1: I had them both on. I was had a good

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Speaker 1: set up where I had two TV's going. Um, I

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Speaker 1: was mostly watching the football game. But I will say,

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Speaker 1: just rolling through my Twitter, I was pleasantly surprised to

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Speaker 1: hear that this one, I guess was better than the

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Speaker 1: last one. You know, that it was more civil. I

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Speaker 1: mean the bar was so low, so anything could have

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Speaker 1: been better than that. So I guess that gives me

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Speaker 1: some hope for the future of the country that we

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Speaker 1: can at least have an actual even though I lost

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Speaker 1: money on the Eagles. You'll like this, Rob, you one

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Speaker 1: of my cousins, UM bet me, I don't know, like

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Speaker 1: six weeks ago, I bet you Biden doesn't even show

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Speaker 1: up for one of the debates or he's going to

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Speaker 1: get COVID or something, and I was like, yeah, I'll

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Speaker 1: take that bet. So I just I mean, it's fifty

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Speaker 1: bucks whatever, But um, I won that bet. So I

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Speaker 1: didn't come out Thursday night only with the loss of

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Speaker 1: the Eagles, and that one did hurt. So we'll say

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Speaker 1: the best bet for the end of the podcast, but

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Speaker 1: coming up right now an interview with Aaron Shafts of

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Speaker 1: Football Outsiders. Jason likes to think he knows everything when

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Speaker 1: it comes to sports. I know what sports fans want,

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Speaker 1: but for everything he doesn't. He knows a guy who does.

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Speaker 1: Let's just say, I know a guy who knows a

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Speaker 1: guy who knows another guy. All right, let's welcome into

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Speaker 1: straight fire. A guy who has you know. I don't

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Speaker 1: want to give him too much credit, but I feel

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Speaker 1: like he's helped my gambling in the last three years

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Speaker 1: because of the Football Outsiders brand and the numbers. Aaron chats, Aaron,

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Speaker 1: how are you, man? I'm good. I'm good. I'm doing well.

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Speaker 1: I just need to help my own gambling more. Listen,

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Speaker 1: I got a Football Outsiders. I mean, I'm incorporating so

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Speaker 1: many more things to the NFL gambling Football Outsiders. I

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Speaker 1: do some pro football focus. I got a buddy who

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Speaker 1: built a model. Um, the model loves the Detroit Lions

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Speaker 1: this weekend, for whatever that's worth. Um, it's just fun, man,

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Speaker 1: I'm having fun. How about yourself? Are you? How are

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Speaker 1: you holding up during the quarantine. I'm holding up pretty well.

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Speaker 1: I'm having as much fun. Listen, the way I've answered

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Speaker 1: that question all summer long is I'm doing about as

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Speaker 1: well as anybody else. I mean, it's not a perfect

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Speaker 1: life right now, but it isn't for anybody. So I

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Speaker 1: have no complaints compared to your average person. And I'm

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Speaker 1: happy that the football season is happening. Obviously, there is

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Speaker 1: weirdness and games getting moved around, and questions about whether

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Speaker 1: we're gonna do this in seventeen weeks, We're gonna have

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Speaker 1: to add a week to the end of the season

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Speaker 1: or whatever. But what's important is we're having a football season,

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Speaker 1: which means we're having football. Let me let's back up

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Speaker 1: and give the listeners a chance to understand how how

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Speaker 1: Football Outsiders came about. I'm assuming you went to college.

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Speaker 1: Something involving numbers was your major. I guess. Take us

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Speaker 1: through that, and then how you started the business. Well,

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Speaker 1: I was an economics major at Brown University, but I

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Speaker 1: actually went into the radio business. That's the first thing

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Speaker 1: that I did after college was I was a radio

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Speaker 1: disc jockey and music director. Wow. And then I bummed

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Speaker 1: around a few different jobs, and then I was working

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Speaker 1: in the internet industry. When I started football Outsiders as

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Speaker 1: a side project. So I'm not really a trained statistician

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Speaker 1: per se, just whatever statistics I learned as part of

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Speaker 1: my economics degree. It was more about just thinking about

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Speaker 1: things differently, and trying to think about football differently than

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Speaker 1: most of the commentators were at the time, asking questions

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Speaker 1: like Bill James right like I. You know, Bill James

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Speaker 1: is one of my idols, and he basically just had

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Speaker 1: questions about baseball that nobody was really answering, so he

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Speaker 1: just went to the box scores and added it all

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Speaker 1: up to find out what was true. And I basically

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Speaker 1: did the same thing with football. When I started in

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Speaker 1: two thousand and two, there was no database of play

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Speaker 1: by play. I had to create one from scratch and

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Speaker 1: use that to answer questions about whether establishing the run

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Speaker 1: meant anything, or passing is being efficient as opposed to running,

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Speaker 1: and all the things that analytics has studied over the

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Speaker 1: last seventeen years. Like I had to kind of create

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Speaker 1: the database from scratch that allowed us to learn those things.

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Speaker 1: That's pretty awesome. Before we get even further, I'm curious,

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Speaker 1: how do you end up at Brown University? Very good school.

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Speaker 1: My wife, by the way, was an econ Major. I'm

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Speaker 1: sure she's, you know, impressed that I'm I'm bragging about her,

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Speaker 1: But um, how do you end up at Brown? I

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Speaker 1: grew up in Sharon, Massachusetts, which is next to Foxboro,

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Speaker 1: in about half an hour away from Brown. So I

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Speaker 1: actually grew up listening to the Brown Radio station, which

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Speaker 1: was a commercial radio station that broadcasts throughout Rhode Island

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Speaker 1: and southern Massachusetts. And so I wanted to go to

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Speaker 1: Brown to work at that radio station. Wow, and he

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Speaker 1: ends up being a huge factor in football numbers and gambling.

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Speaker 1: So I before we get to the games for Week seven,

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Speaker 1: let me ask the more I watched telecast this year

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Speaker 1: and I don't have numbers to back it up. Maybe

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Speaker 1: you do. I feel like the coaches have gotten the

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Speaker 1: memo rain on being aggressive and going for it on

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Speaker 1: fourth down and passing on earlier downs. It almost seems

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Speaker 1: like we're not quite at the NBA where everybody's shooting

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Speaker 1: threes all the time. It's either lay ups or threes.

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Speaker 1: But in the NFL, I feel like it's a lot

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Speaker 1: more passing on early downs and a lot more fourth

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Speaker 1: down aggressiveness. Are you seeing the same or do numbers

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Speaker 1: back that up? I agree with you. Also, more play

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Speaker 1: action and more use of motion before the snap, which

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Speaker 1: are other things that analytics suggests that you do. There's

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Speaker 1: no question that Philadelphia winning the Super Bowl a couple

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Speaker 1: of years ago really changed the way people think about

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Speaker 1: fourth downs because they were very aggressive. And I do

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Speaker 1: have to throw in a plug because they worked with

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Speaker 1: Edge Sports, which is the company that owns football outsiders,

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Speaker 1: to work on their aggression when they won the Super Bowl,

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Speaker 1: and since then other teams have sort of taken up

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Speaker 1: the idea of Baltimore has really taken it to another

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Speaker 1: level as far as being aggressive. And so yeah, aggressiveness

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Speaker 1: around the league is up on fourth downs much more

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Speaker 1: than what it was just three or four years ago.

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Speaker 1: Teams are passing more. It's funny now anytime a coach

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Speaker 1: makes a controversial decision, it gets framed as an analytics decision,

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Speaker 1: even though, like when Romeo Crenell decided to go for

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Speaker 1: two to try to be up nine against the last week,

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Speaker 1: a lot of analytics people who did research on that

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Speaker 1: said that either it showed that he did the wrong

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Speaker 1: thing or more likely that it was it was an

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Speaker 1: either or right. It was kind of a go with

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Speaker 1: your gut decision, like it didn't matter which you did. Uh,

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Speaker 1: And yet people are blaming it on analytics even though

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Speaker 1: it's not analytics didn't tell them to do that. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I actually had the Texans in that one, and I

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Speaker 1: was fine with it because you win the game. If

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Speaker 1: Deshaun Watson can throw a two point conversion. It got

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Speaker 1: batted down and you know that's the end of that.

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Speaker 1: I'm curious and I don't know if you can reveal this,

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Speaker 1: but how what was the process like when the Eagles

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Speaker 1: came to EDGE sports and said we want to get

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Speaker 1: in business with you guys, were you involve than any

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Speaker 1: of that? Or No, I wasn't because we weren't with

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Speaker 1: EDG Sports yet. But ed sports does consulting with NFL

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Speaker 1: teams and so they put together you know, examples of

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Speaker 1: of of when teams should go for it and show, uh,

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Speaker 1: you know, when the win the game winning chance you

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Speaker 1: know also known as win probability at it, like when

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Speaker 1: that demonstrates that going for it is the right decision.

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Speaker 1: And they try to teach coaches because you can't put

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Speaker 1: together a book that tells coaches what to do because

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Speaker 1: the coaches can't refer to it during games. They're not

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Speaker 1: allowed to. So what you have to do is teach

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Speaker 1: the basic idea of when going forward is good and

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Speaker 1: then coaches make the decisions on their own. Well, you

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Speaker 1: say coaches can't, but I swear I read a story

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Speaker 1: last year that John Harbaugh had like some astrophysicist or

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Speaker 1: whatever on the sideline telling him, yeah, we gotta go

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Speaker 1: for it upot down. Yeah. But even then, like the

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Speaker 1: guy who's in his ear and I don't remember that

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Speaker 1: guy's name, unfortunately, but he can't have like a computer

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Speaker 1: in front of him running models, Like you're not around

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Speaker 1: to have a computer during the game. Like I just

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Speaker 1: have to know basically, you know, during these situations is

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Speaker 1: when we go for it, And this is when I

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Speaker 1: need to tell the coach to go Huh. Interesting, I

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Speaker 1: didn't know you couldn't have a computer punching it up.

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Speaker 1: How would they? How would they? You know, make sure

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Speaker 1: nobody's doing that. I don't know how. Bill Belichick obviously

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Speaker 1: breaking the rules. All right, let's go to Week seven

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Speaker 1: air and uh not not just a shot at Belichick

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Speaker 1: as a Jets fan. I'm allowed one per podcast. Um,

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Speaker 1: all right, you know, let's start with the COVID situation. Okay,

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Speaker 1: so Trent Brown are the Raiders. Their left tackle test

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Speaker 1: positive for COVID and he apparently may have had exposure

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Speaker 1: to the rest of the offensive line. So they're all

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Speaker 1: out of practice Wednesday and Thursday, and now, all of

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Speaker 1: a sudden, I guess the NFL said, Hey, Sunday night

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Speaker 1: football a little in jeopardy. Uh, let's move that game

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Speaker 1: to now the afternoon, and let's slide in Seahawks Cardinals.

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Speaker 1: I'm just curious, how do you factor in all that

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Speaker 1: stuff when you're looking at the numbers. Oh, it's tought.

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Speaker 1: I mean, look, we're running d v o A numbers.

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Speaker 1: That's our main metric. For those who don't know. Uh,

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Speaker 1: we run those numbers based on what actually happens in

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Speaker 1: the games. So they're not adjusted at all for uh,

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Speaker 1: what injuries were taking place, or what illnesses were taking place,

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Speaker 1: or whether Tennessee had time to practice because of COVID

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Speaker 1: or whatever. It's just this is what happened in the game.

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Speaker 1: When we take those numbers and we apply them to

425
00:22:29,840 --> 00:22:33,600
Speaker 1: try to make picks in our our FO plus picks

426
00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:36,040
Speaker 1: against the spread, which is, you know, our premium product

427
00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:39,359
Speaker 1: of football Outsiders like I do have to try to

428
00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:43,800
Speaker 1: account for some of these COVID illnesses and lack of practice.

429
00:22:44,320 --> 00:22:47,399
Speaker 1: But I'm gonna be honest, it's it's just completely subjective.

430
00:22:47,480 --> 00:22:49,960
Speaker 1: There's no history to go like, we've never had a

431
00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:54,320
Speaker 1: season like this before where anything like this has happened,

432
00:22:54,400 --> 00:22:57,959
Speaker 1: So you have to kind of guess, like what the

433
00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:01,960
Speaker 1: effect of not having practices or what the effect of

434
00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:06,320
Speaker 1: certain injuries uh and almost uh player absences. I mean,

435
00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:08,840
Speaker 1: we were wrong about what the effect of not having

436
00:23:08,840 --> 00:23:11,119
Speaker 1: practice was. When it came to the Tennessee Titans against

437
00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:13,760
Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bills. Yeah, I was. I was with you.

438
00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:16,000
Speaker 1: I had the Buffalo Bills there. I said, wait, Tennessee's

439
00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:18,440
Speaker 1: practiced twice in sixteen days, They're not gonna be ready.

440
00:23:18,760 --> 00:23:21,320
Speaker 1: And it was the opposite. Uh, you know, they were

441
00:23:21,359 --> 00:23:23,440
Speaker 1: fresh and they destroyed the Bills. But the other one

442
00:23:23,480 --> 00:23:26,720
Speaker 1: that really got me was Broncos Patriots. Yeah, because the

443
00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:29,439
Speaker 1: Patriots came out and you were like, okay, well it

444
00:23:29,480 --> 00:23:34,640
Speaker 1: didn't affect the Titans. Yeah, it completely affected the Patriots.

445
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:37,000
Speaker 1: They looked like they hadn't practiced the week and a half. Yeah.

446
00:23:37,040 --> 00:23:38,879
Speaker 1: And and that one, I guess was a little different

447
00:23:38,880 --> 00:23:41,520
Speaker 1: because Cam Newton was in COVID. Uh, you know, he

448
00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:43,880
Speaker 1: was out and and he could not practice at all.

449
00:23:43,920 --> 00:23:47,640
Speaker 1: But that one rattled me. I don't know what, if anything,

450
00:23:47,720 --> 00:23:51,000
Speaker 1: what do you read into Uh, you know the Raiders

451
00:23:51,040 --> 00:23:53,080
Speaker 1: Bucks game. And again it's tough because I don't know,

452
00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:56,320
Speaker 1: you know, later today we could have another guy ruled out.

453
00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:02,040
Speaker 1: How HOWE get I'm guessing that game is gonna get

454
00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:04,720
Speaker 1: moved off Sunday because the way the reserve list is,

455
00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:07,280
Speaker 1: those players would have to have would have to have

456
00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:10,479
Speaker 1: negative tests on Sunday to play Sunday, and therefore they

457
00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:13,320
Speaker 1: would play without any practice. And it probably would be

458
00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:15,520
Speaker 1: better to move that game to Monday or Tuesday, because

459
00:24:15,520 --> 00:24:19,520
Speaker 1: otherwise the Raiders don't have eight offensive linemen. To actually

460
00:24:19,560 --> 00:24:22,159
Speaker 1: field a team like you have to have eight active

461
00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:26,280
Speaker 1: offensive linemen. Um. I mean, I would guess I would

462
00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:30,040
Speaker 1: move things a little bit towards Tampa Bay, but it's

463
00:24:30,080 --> 00:24:33,440
Speaker 1: tough to know how much. After the example of Tennessee,

464
00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:36,959
Speaker 1: it's tough to know just how much to move lines

465
00:24:37,119 --> 00:24:40,760
Speaker 1: based on players missing practice to the code, and you're

466
00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:43,280
Speaker 1: buying tennis Tampa at the top of the market after

467
00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:48,440
Speaker 1: destroying the Packers and everybody, they're number one in that game.

468
00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:51,879
Speaker 1: I like Tampa. The line currently being three and a half,

469
00:24:52,400 --> 00:24:54,840
Speaker 1: I like Tampa. But if the COVID thing moves the

470
00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:56,840
Speaker 1: line a little bit more, I don't know what I'm

471
00:24:56,840 --> 00:24:59,439
Speaker 1: gonna do. Yeah, it makes it difficult. Um, all right,

472
00:24:59,480 --> 00:25:02,720
Speaker 1: let's go to the game that's now become Sunday night football, uh,

473
00:25:02,880 --> 00:25:07,480
Speaker 1: Seattle and Arizona, and Seattle's coming off the by and

474
00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:11,480
Speaker 1: Arizona played Monday night. Arizona of course looked amazing. So Eric,

475
00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:13,680
Speaker 1: you know, obviously you see all these trends that I'm

476
00:25:13,720 --> 00:25:16,520
Speaker 1: calling up one, and I gotta ask you specifically, like

477
00:25:16,800 --> 00:25:19,200
Speaker 1: do you care about trends as a factor in because

478
00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:22,080
Speaker 1: this one jumped out of you. So teams off a

479
00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:24,760
Speaker 1: Monday night football game, right, playing a team that's coming

480
00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:28,400
Speaker 1: off of by since two thousand three, twenty four, nine

481
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:31,000
Speaker 1: and one. That's a small sample size, that's what thirty

482
00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:35,119
Speaker 1: four games, but that's pretty significant. Now. I don't know

483
00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:36,920
Speaker 1: what that says. I don't know who the teams were.

484
00:25:37,800 --> 00:25:40,200
Speaker 1: When you get a trend like that, does it mean

485
00:25:40,240 --> 00:25:43,359
Speaker 1: anything to you? Do you just laugh it off? Next thing? Yeah,

486
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:46,040
Speaker 1: I try to look for the trend in the numbers,

487
00:25:46,080 --> 00:25:48,879
Speaker 1: like I try to look in the formula that we

488
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:51,120
Speaker 1: used to pick games. I try to look for those

489
00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:54,959
Speaker 1: trends being significant. And the fact is usually those trends

490
00:25:55,040 --> 00:25:59,080
Speaker 1: don't come out as significant, right, but I look for them.

491
00:25:59,200 --> 00:26:01,000
Speaker 1: Is it that the team team that's coming off the

492
00:26:01,040 --> 00:26:03,840
Speaker 1: by is nine and one, or the team that can

493
00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:06,400
Speaker 1: coming off Monday? Yeah, the team coming off the Monday game,

494
00:26:06,440 --> 00:26:08,359
Speaker 1: I guess that the thought and again I don't know,

495
00:26:08,440 --> 00:26:11,560
Speaker 1: I'm the thought would be, oh, they're more fresh, they

496
00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:15,119
Speaker 1: just played Monday. And the team coming off the bys,

497
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:17,560
Speaker 1: you know, a little slower out of the gate, baby.

498
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:20,280
Speaker 1: And it's funny because often the narrative is the other

499
00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:22,720
Speaker 1: way around. The team coming off the bye had rest,

500
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:25,200
Speaker 1: so they should be fresher. So in the last two

501
00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:28,280
Speaker 1: years it's one in seven. Uh, the team coming off

502
00:26:28,280 --> 00:26:30,520
Speaker 1: the by just getting off to the slow start. And

503
00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:32,600
Speaker 1: again I looked at this last week and there were

504
00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:35,639
Speaker 1: two teams coming off the by, the Detroit Lions and

505
00:26:35,680 --> 00:26:40,200
Speaker 1: the Packers and road teams coming off of by their favorite.

506
00:26:40,240 --> 00:26:42,720
Speaker 1: Is it's like or something? And the Lions said easily,

507
00:26:42,760 --> 00:26:45,560
Speaker 1: and again it's Lions Jags. I didn't just pick the

508
00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:47,520
Speaker 1: game because of that. But then the Packers were the

509
00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:50,200
Speaker 1: other one and they got destroyed. So, you know, it's

510
00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:52,360
Speaker 1: just I don't know. I'm not a trend guy. I'm

511
00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:53,840
Speaker 1: just putting that out there because a lot of the

512
00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:57,560
Speaker 1: casual gamblers here that on TV or podcast or read it.

513
00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:01,280
Speaker 1: And if you have a statement on trends, is there

514
00:27:01,320 --> 00:27:03,280
Speaker 1: anything that's easy like take it with a grain assault

515
00:27:03,359 --> 00:27:05,840
Speaker 1: It's the fifteen thing I look at or I don't

516
00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:08,520
Speaker 1: look at them. I mean, I just I find that

517
00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:13,920
Speaker 1: those trends tend to involved so few games that when

518
00:27:13,920 --> 00:27:17,879
Speaker 1: you look at them in terms of the larger trying

519
00:27:17,920 --> 00:27:21,360
Speaker 1: to project two and fifty six games a year over

520
00:27:21,480 --> 00:27:26,200
Speaker 1: ten years, that they end up just being not significant statistics.

521
00:27:26,800 --> 00:27:30,520
Speaker 1: So this Arizona Seattle game, I mean, aaron Football Outsiders

522
00:27:30,560 --> 00:27:34,800
Speaker 1: has the Arizona Cardinals as the number two rushing offense

523
00:27:34,960 --> 00:27:37,680
Speaker 1: in the NFL. We know Seattle's defense sticks they are

524
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:42,280
Speaker 1: decent against the run, right. Uh, you know, I would

525
00:27:42,400 --> 00:27:44,880
Speaker 1: lean towards Seattle here, but I'm curious as to your

526
00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:49,520
Speaker 1: thoughts on on Arizona Seattle. Well, the first thought I

527
00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:53,840
Speaker 1: have is, from what I can tell, home field advantage

528
00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:58,199
Speaker 1: still means something this year, probably a little bit less

529
00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:01,080
Speaker 1: than it has in general over the last few years,

530
00:28:01,080 --> 00:28:03,679
Speaker 1: but I think it still means something. And Arizona is

531
00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:06,840
Speaker 1: the home team here, their home dogs three and a

532
00:28:06,880 --> 00:28:10,320
Speaker 1: half as far as I know, So, I mean, we

533
00:28:10,480 --> 00:28:13,199
Speaker 1: love Seattle. This year there are number one offense, but

534
00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:16,399
Speaker 1: they are our number twenty six defense. So we have

535
00:28:16,480 --> 00:28:20,880
Speaker 1: Seattle fifth overall in Arizona ten. So I I mean,

536
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:23,520
Speaker 1: I don't know how much we're overstating the importance of

537
00:28:23,520 --> 00:28:26,600
Speaker 1: that Dallas game because Arizona shot up our rankings after

538
00:28:26,640 --> 00:28:29,439
Speaker 1: that game. But I actually kind of like Arizona to

539
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:33,480
Speaker 1: cover now. Arizona shot up the rankings. Uh Dallas handed

540
00:28:33,520 --> 00:28:37,800
Speaker 1: them for turnovers. Gallup had the drop touchdown pass. I'm

541
00:28:37,880 --> 00:28:41,680
Speaker 1: Dalton looked totally out of sorts. Um. But their offense,

542
00:28:41,840 --> 00:28:43,600
Speaker 1: like Aaron, you watch that game, and I know you

543
00:28:43,680 --> 00:28:46,920
Speaker 1: gotta trust the numbers, but Kyla Murray completed nine passes,

544
00:28:47,200 --> 00:28:51,360
Speaker 1: you know, very average this year. It's their running game

545
00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:55,600
Speaker 1: that's fabulous. Kyler Murray in our rushing value stats is

546
00:28:55,680 --> 00:28:59,360
Speaker 1: triple the rushing value of any other quarterback and that

547
00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:03,400
Speaker 1: includes them Jackson, and that includes Lamar Jackson, and Seattle

548
00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:07,760
Speaker 1: has actually allowed a very high rating two quarterback running

549
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:11,040
Speaker 1: this year, including Cam Newton, but also Ryan Fitzpatrick and

550
00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:15,520
Speaker 1: Dak Prescott. Random huh that I mean, like I'm seeing,

551
00:29:15,560 --> 00:29:18,800
Speaker 1: Seattle is the number nine rushing defense, So if they

552
00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:20,920
Speaker 1: were able to slow Arizona, then Kyler Murray has to

553
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:22,920
Speaker 1: win the game through the air. My thought is he

554
00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:25,680
Speaker 1: hasn't been winning through the year this season, but maybe

555
00:29:25,680 --> 00:29:27,760
Speaker 1: he can against Seattle. That's why this game has me

556
00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:30,640
Speaker 1: all twisted. It's probably a stay away, right. Seattle gives

557
00:29:30,720 --> 00:29:34,320
Speaker 1: up so many receiving yards two ninety six per game

558
00:29:34,400 --> 00:29:38,000
Speaker 1: to opposing wide receivers. That is like eighty yards a

559
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:40,680
Speaker 1: game more than any other defense this year. And they

560
00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:42,760
Speaker 1: have some good wide receivers in Arizona. I don't know

561
00:29:42,760 --> 00:29:44,760
Speaker 1: if you've heard of the DeAndre Hopkins. Yeah, that guy

562
00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:47,520
Speaker 1: is pretty good. Um. All right, so I'm looking at

563
00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:49,920
Speaker 1: the picks that I'm putting in. I already bet the

564
00:29:49,920 --> 00:29:52,640
Speaker 1: Steelers earlier this week. Now. I don't know how much

565
00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:55,600
Speaker 1: you watch the line movement, Aaron, but yeah, what did

566
00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 1: you bet the Steelers? Act? Because I know I got

567
00:29:58,640 --> 00:30:01,640
Speaker 1: them favored by two. Now they're a dog and a

568
00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:04,840
Speaker 1: half point and a half dogs. I don't totally understand

569
00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:07,640
Speaker 1: why the line moved. I saw Dori Jackson. Um, their

570
00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:10,440
Speaker 1: best cornerback is finally healthy asn't played in I think

571
00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:13,960
Speaker 1: since week one. UM, But Dori Jackson's not moving the

572
00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:17,680
Speaker 1: line a point or two. Like, I don't know, I

573
00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:20,120
Speaker 1: don't know. I don't understand this. I don't know either.

574
00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:22,240
Speaker 1: I don't know. Dori Jackson is not a three point

575
00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:25,600
Speaker 1: line movie. So I'm very confused as to why that

576
00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:29,360
Speaker 1: line moved so much. But it's actually like that game

577
00:30:29,440 --> 00:30:34,840
Speaker 1: is close enough that our picks system pick Tennessee when

578
00:30:34,840 --> 00:30:38,920
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh was the favorite, and now picks Pittsburgh the favorite.

579
00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:41,440
Speaker 1: That is funny. What do you make of Pittsburgh? Strip

580
00:30:41,480 --> 00:30:44,160
Speaker 1: forget the numbers for a second, just as as an

581
00:30:44,200 --> 00:30:48,840
Speaker 1: observer of football, what do you make of this Pittsburgh team?

582
00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:51,880
Speaker 1: They have a really good defense, especially the front. Now

583
00:30:51,880 --> 00:30:54,160
Speaker 1: we'll see what happens without Devin Bush, the guy who

584
00:30:54,160 --> 00:30:59,640
Speaker 1: tours a cel linebacker. But it's like the edge rushers

585
00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:02,160
Speaker 1: are really good and the defensive line is really good,

586
00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:07,360
Speaker 1: and you know Cam Hayward and Stephen Tewitt and UM,

587
00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:10,840
Speaker 1: they have been phenomenal up front and their defense. The

588
00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:14,080
Speaker 1: offense is you know a little bit more just mediocre.

589
00:31:14,200 --> 00:31:16,840
Speaker 1: And I do think that Ben Roethlisberger is not quite

590
00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:19,240
Speaker 1: what he used to be, but he's a lot better

591
00:31:19,280 --> 00:31:20,840
Speaker 1: than what they had last year. Like they were the

592
00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:22,920
Speaker 1: worst offense in the league last year and they're a

593
00:31:22,920 --> 00:31:26,040
Speaker 1: lot better than that now. Uh, you're big on sample

594
00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:29,320
Speaker 1: size as anybody who gambles is Ryan Tannehill now has

595
00:31:29,360 --> 00:31:32,760
Speaker 1: I believe sixteen starts in Tennessee under his belt, or

596
00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:36,040
Speaker 1: maybe it's fifteen and this is sixteen coming up. Somebody compared.

597
00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:38,840
Speaker 1: Somebody told me, like, he's like the Dow Jones index

598
00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:41,440
Speaker 1: right now. It's very very high. I mean it's incredible,

599
00:31:41,480 --> 00:31:44,200
Speaker 1: but man, it's overpriced. It's gonna be coming down. It's

600
00:31:44,200 --> 00:31:47,440
Speaker 1: gonna be crashing. What do you make of this Tannehill thing?

601
00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:48,840
Speaker 1: Like I thought he was the guy we saw in

602
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:51,840
Speaker 1: Miami for six years and he was mediocre at best.

603
00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:54,080
Speaker 1: But some of those years with Adam Gays, who we know,

604
00:31:54,440 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 1: it just ruins it for everyone. What do you make

605
00:31:56,480 --> 00:31:59,680
Speaker 1: a Tannehill in the Titans? A year of evidence is

606
00:31:59,720 --> 00:32:02,280
Speaker 1: a lot out of evidence. Now it's not perfect, right case,

607
00:32:02,360 --> 00:32:07,920
Speaker 1: Keenum had an incredible year. But even if what Tannehill

608
00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:11,120
Speaker 1: is doing is in part not because of him, but

609
00:32:11,200 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 1: because of the scheme he's in and the amount of

610
00:32:13,280 --> 00:32:17,360
Speaker 1: play action that they run. Um, he's gonna continue being

611
00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:20,640
Speaker 1: in that scheme like, that's not going to change. So

612
00:32:20,760 --> 00:32:24,320
Speaker 1: I think at this point we can safely say that

613
00:32:24,480 --> 00:32:27,920
Speaker 1: Tannehill is probably close to this good, Like, maybe not

614
00:32:28,040 --> 00:32:29,800
Speaker 1: quite this good. It may come back to earth a

615
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:34,040
Speaker 1: little bit still, but he's probably close to this good

616
00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:37,480
Speaker 1: in that offensive scheme, and that that second part is

617
00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:40,880
Speaker 1: important in this offensive scheme. But they have no defense.

618
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:42,880
Speaker 1: That's the problem with Tennessee is their defense has not

619
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:46,040
Speaker 1: been good this year. So, um, when you look at

620
00:32:46,080 --> 00:32:49,560
Speaker 1: this game, one side, you have a match of strength

621
00:32:49,600 --> 00:32:53,240
Speaker 1: against strength with the Tennessee offense and the Pittsburgh defense.

622
00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:57,760
Speaker 1: But on the other hand, the Pittsburgh offense is kind

623
00:32:57,760 --> 00:33:01,800
Speaker 1: of average and the Tennessee defense bad. So I think

624
00:33:01,840 --> 00:33:05,320
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh has the advantage because on that other side of

625
00:33:05,360 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 1: the ball that isn't strength against strength, they're the better team. Um.

626
00:33:09,320 --> 00:33:12,840
Speaker 1: Speaking of strength on strength, Cleveland Browns a team I

627
00:33:12,920 --> 00:33:16,200
Speaker 1: thought was playoff bound this year. Um, and they look

628
00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:18,680
Speaker 1: pretty good in four wins, but in two losses Aaron

629
00:33:18,800 --> 00:33:21,280
Speaker 1: I mean, Steelers beat him by a million and the

630
00:33:21,320 --> 00:33:23,040
Speaker 1: Ravens beat him by a million, but in the other

631
00:33:23,080 --> 00:33:26,040
Speaker 1: games it looked good. How are what are we supposed

632
00:33:26,040 --> 00:33:27,800
Speaker 1: to take away from the Browns at this point, who

633
00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:29,680
Speaker 1: are matched up with the Bengals. They already beat him.

634
00:33:30,040 --> 00:33:32,080
Speaker 1: Uh they ran for like out of the two yards

635
00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:34,880
Speaker 1: against him in the opener or in their first meeting.

636
00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:37,760
Speaker 1: And now there's no Chubb, but Hunt can still he

637
00:33:37,800 --> 00:33:40,240
Speaker 1: can go over Buck fifty easily. What do you make

638
00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:42,680
Speaker 1: of the Browns team? I know some Cleveland fans are like,

639
00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:45,280
Speaker 1: Baker stinks, I'm over it. He can't, He's not the guy,

640
00:33:46,760 --> 00:33:49,760
Speaker 1: and he pushed back on that. Yeah. Football Outsiders Film

641
00:33:49,840 --> 00:33:53,720
Speaker 1: Room this week we have an analysis of Baker Mayfield

642
00:33:53,800 --> 00:33:59,800
Speaker 1: missing defensive coverages, like misreading defensive coverages. So um, he's

643
00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:03,760
Speaker 1: clearly It's interesting. It's a very rare that a player

644
00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:07,400
Speaker 1: plays well as a rookie and then drops off. There's

645
00:34:07,400 --> 00:34:10,359
Speaker 1: really only three good examples of it. Dak Prescott who

646
00:34:10,360 --> 00:34:14,280
Speaker 1: then turns things around, Robert Griffin the third who was injured,

647
00:34:14,800 --> 00:34:18,799
Speaker 1: and Baker Mayfield but he's not playing very well. It's

648
00:34:18,800 --> 00:34:22,719
Speaker 1: everything around him that's going well, not Baker himself. So um,

649
00:34:22,760 --> 00:34:25,040
Speaker 1: I think the way that we do analysis is we

650
00:34:25,080 --> 00:34:27,520
Speaker 1: put every play together, and the two bad games and

651
00:34:27,560 --> 00:34:30,160
Speaker 1: the good games all get smashed together. And when you

652
00:34:30,200 --> 00:34:33,200
Speaker 1: put it all together, Cleveland has been a below average

653
00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:35,400
Speaker 1: team this year because of those two games where they

654
00:34:35,440 --> 00:34:39,880
Speaker 1: just got killed. So Cincinnati, they're they're better than Cincinnati,

655
00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:43,919
Speaker 1: but they are far behind. They may not be far

656
00:34:44,080 --> 00:34:47,600
Speaker 1: behind Baltimore and Pittsburgh in the standings, but they are

657
00:34:47,719 --> 00:34:50,359
Speaker 1: far behind Baltimore and Pittsburgh in the actual play by

658
00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:52,719
Speaker 1: play breakdown. And how good did now? How much of

659
00:34:52,719 --> 00:34:54,680
Speaker 1: that do you think has to do with continuity? Right?

660
00:34:54,680 --> 00:34:57,960
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh and Baltimore have had their coaches forever. Big Ben's

661
00:34:57,960 --> 00:35:01,360
Speaker 1: been around forever. I know Lamar was third year for him. Meanwhile,

662
00:35:01,400 --> 00:35:04,920
Speaker 1: the Browns are going into Baker's third season with a

663
00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:07,920
Speaker 1: new head coach, a new offense. Obviously they got a

664
00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:11,000
Speaker 1: new offensive coordinator. How much does that matter? And again,

665
00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:14,360
Speaker 1: we're only in October here. Could that turn around by say,

666
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:18,920
Speaker 1: November December? Um? I don't know whether it turns around

667
00:35:18,920 --> 00:35:20,839
Speaker 1: in the middle of the year, but I do know

668
00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:24,279
Speaker 1: when we do our projections before the season starts that

669
00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:28,160
Speaker 1: all other things being equal, having new system on offense

670
00:35:28,280 --> 00:35:31,239
Speaker 1: or defense does mean you take a step back. M hmm.

671
00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:34,560
Speaker 1: Interesting all right? So uh and not a lot of

672
00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:36,759
Speaker 1: love for the Browns. Is there a game you love

673
00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:40,160
Speaker 1: out there this week? In Week seven? Yeah, one where

674
00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:43,759
Speaker 1: I think we're going to disagree. I really like the

675
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:46,279
Speaker 1: New Orleans Saints to cover the seven and a half

676
00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:53,360
Speaker 1: line against Carolina. Interesting what These Saints are number seven

677
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:55,319
Speaker 1: in our numbers for this year, even though there are

678
00:35:55,360 --> 00:35:58,279
Speaker 1: only three and two. The underlying performance has been better

679
00:35:58,280 --> 00:36:02,480
Speaker 1: than the win loss record, And the research that I

680
00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:05,920
Speaker 1: did this last offseason suggests that even at this point

681
00:36:05,920 --> 00:36:10,000
Speaker 1: of the year, we should still be using preseason information

682
00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:12,840
Speaker 1: at about the same level as what we've seen in

683
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:16,920
Speaker 1: twenty so far. And New Orleans had our best preseason

684
00:36:16,960 --> 00:36:20,319
Speaker 1: projection and Carolina had our worst preseason projection because we

685
00:36:20,360 --> 00:36:23,160
Speaker 1: thought their defense, we thought their offense would be better,

686
00:36:23,160 --> 00:36:25,040
Speaker 1: and it has been. We thought their defense was going

687
00:36:25,080 --> 00:36:27,960
Speaker 1: to collapse, and it hasn't quite collapsed as much as

688
00:36:28,000 --> 00:36:33,000
Speaker 1: we expect. But that preseason information is still important to know,

689
00:36:33,280 --> 00:36:36,640
Speaker 1: so that the gap between these teams is larger than

690
00:36:36,680 --> 00:36:41,000
Speaker 1: their performance would suggest. Now I know that Michael Thomas

691
00:36:41,080 --> 00:36:43,360
Speaker 1: now apparently has a hamstring issue, so he may not

692
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:46,439
Speaker 1: be back for this game, but New Orleans has gotten

693
00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:49,000
Speaker 1: the seventh this year in our numbers, even without Thomas

694
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:51,719
Speaker 1: for most of the season. So I really like New

695
00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:54,239
Speaker 1: Orleans to cover this game at home. And I don't

696
00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:56,799
Speaker 1: understand the Saints defense. They were, I don't know, if

697
00:36:56,800 --> 00:36:59,080
Speaker 1: a great unit last year, but really good this year.

698
00:36:59,120 --> 00:37:01,120
Speaker 1: They gave up thirty four of the Raiders, thirty seven

699
00:37:01,120 --> 00:37:04,200
Speaker 1: to the Packers, twenty nine of the Lions, twenty seven

700
00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:06,759
Speaker 1: to a rookie quarterback and Justin Herbert. I know there's

701
00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:09,520
Speaker 1: been some injuries at cornerback, but any idea is why

702
00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:13,839
Speaker 1: the Saints defense is just not delivering this year. Penalties. Ah,

703
00:37:14,840 --> 00:37:17,120
Speaker 1: it is so much about penalties. They have like a

704
00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:20,440
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty more yards of defensive past interference than

705
00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:24,520
Speaker 1: any other defense something like that. It's like crazy, Um,

706
00:37:24,560 --> 00:37:27,040
Speaker 1: we actually have them as a top ten defense when

707
00:37:27,080 --> 00:37:30,239
Speaker 1: you adjust to the quality of their opponents and you

708
00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:32,520
Speaker 1: look at the play by play breakdown, they were put

709
00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:35,959
Speaker 1: in some bad situations by turnovers, a lot of bad

710
00:37:35,960 --> 00:37:40,360
Speaker 1: situations by penalties that aren't necessarily predictive. The d p

711
00:37:40,520 --> 00:37:42,000
Speaker 1: I s are predictive, but a lot of the other

712
00:37:42,000 --> 00:37:45,759
Speaker 1: penalties aren't. Um And so yeah, we have to say

713
00:37:45,800 --> 00:37:48,000
Speaker 1: it's a lot better than their record would show, and

714
00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:50,360
Speaker 1: their defense better than people thinking it. All right, I

715
00:37:50,719 --> 00:37:54,400
Speaker 1: will My last question has to center around my New

716
00:37:54,440 --> 00:37:57,759
Speaker 1: York Jets. Um, it's it's a tough year. Are in

717
00:37:57,880 --> 00:38:01,760
Speaker 1: ohen six oh six against the spread? Then against Buffalo thirteen?

718
00:38:01,840 --> 00:38:03,439
Speaker 1: It seems like it's coming down now? Is it looks

719
00:38:03,440 --> 00:38:06,400
Speaker 1: like Sam Donald may play? You know I read the

720
00:38:06,400 --> 00:38:09,440
Speaker 1: football outside is the Jets are not the worst team

721
00:38:09,480 --> 00:38:13,359
Speaker 1: in NFL history. They're probably not even close. But so

722
00:38:13,400 --> 00:38:18,360
Speaker 1: far they've been largely unwatchable. Um do you and I

723
00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:20,319
Speaker 1: know you can't say a team is tanking, but when

724
00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:23,439
Speaker 1: you watch them and putting Flacco out there and the

725
00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:27,239
Speaker 1: archaic style of offense that Adam Gaye runs, it all

726
00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:30,480
Speaker 1: looks like the front office just saying, hey, play football games,

727
00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:32,600
Speaker 1: we'll see you guys next year. Well, if they were

728
00:38:32,600 --> 00:38:34,839
Speaker 1: going to do that, they should not bring Donald back, right,

729
00:38:34,920 --> 00:38:37,240
Speaker 1: I mean, if they if you really want Trevor Lawrence,

730
00:38:37,280 --> 00:38:40,120
Speaker 1: don't bring Donald back. Um. I don't think they're tanking

731
00:38:40,160 --> 00:38:42,440
Speaker 1: on purpose. I think everything has just gone wrong. And

732
00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:47,040
Speaker 1: as far as being unwatchable, it's um, teams with terrible

733
00:38:47,080 --> 00:38:51,560
Speaker 1: offenses are usually harder to watch than teams with terrible defenses. So,

734
00:38:51,680 --> 00:38:54,080
Speaker 1: I mean, it's their offense that's been really bad. But yeah,

735
00:38:54,120 --> 00:38:56,360
Speaker 1: what I've been writing about on Twitter is the Jets

736
00:38:56,400 --> 00:38:59,040
Speaker 1: are not like the worst team ever or close to it.

737
00:38:59,680 --> 00:39:02,200
Speaker 1: This is what the worst team in the league tends

738
00:39:02,239 --> 00:39:06,399
Speaker 1: to look like, and they just are the worst team

739
00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:09,800
Speaker 1: in the league. But based on our numbers, they're about

740
00:39:10,200 --> 00:39:12,520
Speaker 1: average for what the worst team in the league looks like. Now,

741
00:39:12,560 --> 00:39:15,920
Speaker 1: they may get worse than that because there's no you know,

742
00:39:16,320 --> 00:39:18,719
Speaker 1: there's no analytics for when the team when everyone just

743
00:39:18,760 --> 00:39:22,960
Speaker 1: stops caring listen to the coach anymore, it just throws

744
00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:26,680
Speaker 1: up their hands. But there's also a lot the average

745
00:39:27,400 --> 00:39:30,560
Speaker 1: number of wins. The average number of wins for a

746
00:39:30,600 --> 00:39:34,040
Speaker 1: team that starts oh and six is three mm. So

747
00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:36,120
Speaker 1: I know, you look at the Jets schedule and you're like,

748
00:39:36,239 --> 00:39:40,480
Speaker 1: there's not any wins on this, but based on history,

749
00:39:41,320 --> 00:39:44,759
Speaker 1: you can expect them to probably win three games. Now,

750
00:39:44,840 --> 00:39:47,799
Speaker 1: I remember last year that Dolphins were absolutely terrible. I

751
00:39:47,800 --> 00:39:50,919
Speaker 1: think they lost, They were outscored worse than this, way worse.

752
00:39:50,960 --> 00:39:52,839
Speaker 1: They were way worse than this, no doubt about it.

753
00:39:52,960 --> 00:39:55,680
Speaker 1: So I mean, I guess my question would be, and

754
00:39:55,680 --> 00:39:58,719
Speaker 1: this is forward thinking about the Jets. Um you said

755
00:39:58,760 --> 00:40:04,160
Speaker 1: how much ocean uh is valued in play action. Do

756
00:40:04,239 --> 00:40:07,680
Speaker 1: you guys have anything on coaches who run more of

757
00:40:07,719 --> 00:40:11,719
Speaker 1: that and thus they become more attractive as a head

758
00:40:11,719 --> 00:40:14,400
Speaker 1: coach in the following year. I don't have it in

759
00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:16,560
Speaker 1: front of me right now, but yeah, we get numbers

760
00:40:16,600 --> 00:40:19,240
Speaker 1: on that stuff from Sports Info Solutions, who are staff

761
00:40:19,280 --> 00:40:22,760
Speaker 1: partners to do charting, and we know that. Like, for example,

762
00:40:22,800 --> 00:40:27,160
Speaker 1: I think Arthur Smith, who is the offensive coordinator in Tennessee,

763
00:40:27,520 --> 00:40:29,959
Speaker 1: who's so unknown that I'm not even sure I got

764
00:40:30,000 --> 00:40:35,359
Speaker 1: his name right. You did, you did? But yeah, he's

765
00:40:35,360 --> 00:40:37,320
Speaker 1: gonna be an attractive head coach in Canada because of

766
00:40:37,600 --> 00:40:41,840
Speaker 1: how he schemed up that offense. Absolutely, and Garison's opposite

767
00:40:41,840 --> 00:40:44,680
Speaker 1: offense doesn't do any of this stuff, doesn't do any

768
00:40:44,680 --> 00:40:47,040
Speaker 1: of this stuff that we think is good. But wait,

769
00:40:47,120 --> 00:40:49,399
Speaker 1: let me ask you, though, when when Arthur Smith had

770
00:40:49,480 --> 00:40:52,480
Speaker 1: Marcus Mariotta early last year, they couldn't do anything. They

771
00:40:52,520 --> 00:40:55,600
Speaker 1: were not good. I know. It's the mystery. It's the

772
00:40:55,600 --> 00:40:59,440
Speaker 1: great mystery is did Smith make Tannehill or did Tannehill

773
00:40:59,440 --> 00:41:02,800
Speaker 1: make Smith? Oh? Now, I hadn't given that much thought

774
00:41:02,880 --> 00:41:05,000
Speaker 1: which way would you lean. I guess you'd have to

775
00:41:05,000 --> 00:41:07,360
Speaker 1: look at those games with Mariota because I never forget.

776
00:41:07,400 --> 00:41:10,960
Speaker 1: I was on Tennessee in Denver last year. I thought

777
00:41:11,000 --> 00:41:14,239
Speaker 1: it was a great spot in Denver. Stinks and Mariota

778
00:41:14,280 --> 00:41:16,680
Speaker 1: got pulled I think in the third quarter. And Mariota

779
00:41:16,760 --> 00:41:23,040
Speaker 1: is another how he's not just doesn't know what he's doing. Yeah,

780
00:41:23,080 --> 00:41:25,800
Speaker 1: he's not quite Baker Mayfield because he had a couple

781
00:41:25,800 --> 00:41:28,800
Speaker 1: of good years before he fell apart. But Mariota totally

782
00:41:28,960 --> 00:41:31,360
Speaker 1: fell apart, like he was good at the beginning. He

783
00:41:31,480 --> 00:41:33,000
Speaker 1: is a backup somewhere in the league. All right, Aeron

784
00:41:33,080 --> 00:41:36,239
Speaker 1: chats Football Outsiders, Aaron, if somebody wants to sign up

785
00:41:36,280 --> 00:41:38,600
Speaker 1: for Football Outsiders, they just want go to the website

786
00:41:38,600 --> 00:41:42,160
Speaker 1: and you know, give their info and so forth. Football

787
00:41:42,200 --> 00:41:45,479
Speaker 1: Outsiders dot Com is the website. All the content is there.

788
00:41:45,520 --> 00:41:48,520
Speaker 1: But FO plus is the premium product that has the

789
00:41:48,560 --> 00:41:52,759
Speaker 1: picks against the spread, the weekly fantasy projections, the database

790
00:41:52,840 --> 00:41:54,440
Speaker 1: of our d v O, a scat that goes back

791
00:41:55,480 --> 00:41:57,719
Speaker 1: with all kinds of splits, how teams are good on

792
00:41:57,760 --> 00:42:00,239
Speaker 1: third down, we're in the red zone. You'll find all

793
00:42:00,239 --> 00:42:03,800
Speaker 1: of that is part of FO plus. But the articles

794
00:42:03,840 --> 00:42:06,840
Speaker 1: on Football Outsiders are free. You just need to register

795
00:42:06,880 --> 00:42:09,120
Speaker 1: if you want to comment in our discussions threads. Awesome.

796
00:42:09,120 --> 00:42:11,160
Speaker 1: All right, Aaron Chats, Thanks a lot. Enjoy the games

797
00:42:11,160 --> 00:42:14,000
Speaker 1: this weekend, you too. Hopefully we're going to play them all.

798
00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:18,640
Speaker 1: The only thing better than sitting on your couch watching

799
00:42:18,640 --> 00:42:22,840
Speaker 1: the game, he's making money while you do it. Here's

800
00:42:22,920 --> 00:42:27,800
Speaker 1: your best bat Thursday's lost. Man, Now that one stung.

801
00:42:27,840 --> 00:42:30,360
Speaker 1: If you couldn't tell earlier in the podcast, I was

802
00:42:30,560 --> 00:42:34,960
Speaker 1: not happy with the results the Eagles. Just all right,

803
00:42:35,040 --> 00:42:36,640
Speaker 1: let's put it behind us. That's what you've got to

804
00:42:36,680 --> 00:42:39,560
Speaker 1: do as a gambler. It's no different than being a cornerback. Right.

805
00:42:39,600 --> 00:42:41,359
Speaker 1: You get roasted on one play, you go right back

806
00:42:41,400 --> 00:42:43,719
Speaker 1: out there the next down. Can't let it rattle you.

807
00:42:43,920 --> 00:42:46,120
Speaker 1: You miss a jumper, you go right back down the quick.

808
00:42:46,160 --> 00:42:49,440
Speaker 1: You miss ten jumpers, you still gotta keep firing. Alright,

809
00:42:49,560 --> 00:42:52,640
Speaker 1: three NFL picks I was thinking for But guys, this

810
00:42:52,719 --> 00:42:55,200
Speaker 1: is a tough weekend. Um. You know, I'm in the

811
00:42:55,360 --> 00:42:58,719
Speaker 1: Circle one point four million dollar contest and I went

812
00:42:58,800 --> 00:43:01,000
Speaker 1: three and two and I lost ground a little bit,

813
00:43:01,040 --> 00:43:03,640
Speaker 1: so I'm still top. I think it's top two and

814
00:43:03,760 --> 00:43:07,719
Speaker 1: ten or something. Like that to um, I don't know

815
00:43:07,760 --> 00:43:09,319
Speaker 1: what I'm gonna be doing. I'm gonna have to give

816
00:43:09,320 --> 00:43:11,000
Speaker 1: it a lot of thought and we'll see if there's

817
00:43:11,040 --> 00:43:13,239
Speaker 1: any COVID implications. You have to get your picks in

818
00:43:13,280 --> 00:43:18,080
Speaker 1: by Saturday, uh, like eleven o'clock Eastern or I'm sorry,

819
00:43:18,080 --> 00:43:21,799
Speaker 1: one o'clock Easter. Not that you guys care. Anyways, my

820
00:43:21,880 --> 00:43:24,760
Speaker 1: three NFL picks this weekend number one if you couldn't

821
00:43:24,800 --> 00:43:28,319
Speaker 1: tell in speaking with Aaron Schatz earlier, I'm going with

822
00:43:28,360 --> 00:43:30,640
Speaker 1: the Pittsburgh Steelers. Now, I see I'm getting a point

823
00:43:30,680 --> 00:43:32,920
Speaker 1: and a half here. Earlier in the week they were favored.

824
00:43:32,960 --> 00:43:35,960
Speaker 1: I bet them favored by two. I bet them now

825
00:43:36,040 --> 00:43:38,080
Speaker 1: is underdogs. If I can get to if I somehow

826
00:43:38,080 --> 00:43:40,080
Speaker 1: could get three, I'd take that in a heartbeat. I

827
00:43:40,160 --> 00:43:41,920
Speaker 1: just think the Steelers are the better team. I mean,

828
00:43:41,920 --> 00:43:44,040
Speaker 1: there's there's no doubt about it. In my mind, they

829
00:43:44,040 --> 00:43:47,520
Speaker 1: are the better team. The only problem, I guess is

830
00:43:47,680 --> 00:43:50,440
Speaker 1: if the issue with Bush being out for the season

831
00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:53,279
Speaker 1: at middle linebacker and they can't suddenly can't stop the

832
00:43:53,360 --> 00:43:55,560
Speaker 1: run because he's gone. There isn't a lot of depth there.

833
00:43:56,160 --> 00:44:00,279
Speaker 1: Remember Shazier had that terrible injury had to retire and

834
00:44:00,280 --> 00:44:02,319
Speaker 1: they really could never replace him, and then they get

835
00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:05,879
Speaker 1: Bush in the draft. Last year they trade up Um

836
00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:07,480
Speaker 1: and he had a great rookie year and here he

837
00:44:07,520 --> 00:44:10,200
Speaker 1: is in year number two when he's playing great, and uh,

838
00:44:10,239 --> 00:44:12,600
Speaker 1: he goes down for the season. I don't know how

839
00:44:12,640 --> 00:44:15,239
Speaker 1: they'll replace him, but I do expect a ground and

840
00:44:15,280 --> 00:44:17,960
Speaker 1: pound effort from the Steelers. I think they cover getting

841
00:44:17,960 --> 00:44:21,080
Speaker 1: one and a half. Next up, Tampa Bay favored by four. Listen,

842
00:44:21,480 --> 00:44:24,200
Speaker 1: a road dog is not really something in my wheelhouse.

843
00:44:24,600 --> 00:44:28,200
Speaker 1: But we've seen the issues with the COVID situation on

844
00:44:28,239 --> 00:44:31,840
Speaker 1: the Las Vegas Raiders offensive line. And if you remember,

845
00:44:32,000 --> 00:44:35,080
Speaker 1: the Raiders look pedestrian against the Patriots. They did not

846
00:44:35,120 --> 00:44:37,600
Speaker 1: look great against the Bills. And they get Trent Brown,

847
00:44:37,640 --> 00:44:40,959
Speaker 1: the big left tackle back, and boo yah, how good

848
00:44:41,000 --> 00:44:43,640
Speaker 1: do they look in that game against the Chiefs. A

849
00:44:43,640 --> 00:44:46,400
Speaker 1: lot of time for Derek Carr remove Trent Brown from

850
00:44:46,400 --> 00:44:50,279
Speaker 1: the equation. Is he gonna have time to hit Aglar deep?

851
00:44:50,360 --> 00:44:52,439
Speaker 1: Is he gonna have time to hit Henry Rugs deep?

852
00:44:52,840 --> 00:44:55,839
Speaker 1: And I love the linebackers. I think Tampa maybe has

853
00:44:55,840 --> 00:44:59,160
Speaker 1: the best set of linebackers in the league with White

854
00:44:59,160 --> 00:45:02,000
Speaker 1: and Lavonte David. Those guys are menacing. I think they

855
00:45:02,000 --> 00:45:05,560
Speaker 1: can contain Waller. I don't know that Josh Jacobs is

856
00:45:05,560 --> 00:45:08,000
Speaker 1: a huge factor here. I just think the Bucks winn

857
00:45:08,000 --> 00:45:09,719
Speaker 1: at the line of scrimmage, and I don't trust the

858
00:45:09,760 --> 00:45:12,799
Speaker 1: Raiders defense. So give me the Bucks favored by four

859
00:45:12,920 --> 00:45:16,160
Speaker 1: and finally rounding it out. I can't quit this team.

860
00:45:16,200 --> 00:45:18,320
Speaker 1: I bet on them, I bet against them. I'm obsessed

861
00:45:18,360 --> 00:45:20,640
Speaker 1: with them. The Cleveland Browns. The lines down to three,

862
00:45:20,840 --> 00:45:23,759
Speaker 1: it's going against me. It was four. I like the

863
00:45:23,760 --> 00:45:28,040
Speaker 1: Browns favored by three against the mighty Joe Burrows. Um,

864
00:45:28,719 --> 00:45:30,880
Speaker 1: I've just got to expect the Browns to win this

865
00:45:31,000 --> 00:45:34,240
Speaker 1: on the ground. And remember we saw overs dominating earlier

866
00:45:34,280 --> 00:45:36,800
Speaker 1: in the year. I think as we settle into October,

867
00:45:37,000 --> 00:45:40,680
Speaker 1: teams start to get a better idea of what they got. Um,

868
00:45:40,880 --> 00:45:43,120
Speaker 1: they don't force the issue with the passing. Listen, if

869
00:45:43,160 --> 00:45:47,279
Speaker 1: you can run on the Bengals, whose front four is decimated, Uh,

870
00:45:47,320 --> 00:45:49,399
Speaker 1: you gotta do that. Control the ball, keep it away

871
00:45:49,400 --> 00:45:52,359
Speaker 1: from Joe Burrow. Yes, I actually said that, and win

872
00:45:52,400 --> 00:45:54,359
Speaker 1: the game. I don't want to say I don't trust

873
00:45:54,440 --> 00:45:58,399
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield, but he's had his moments ups and down,

874
00:45:58,440 --> 00:46:00,680
Speaker 1: so those are my three best bet for the weekend.

875
00:46:01,160 --> 00:46:04,000
Speaker 1: UM Tampa Bay favorite by four, Pittsburgh getting one and

876
00:46:04,040 --> 00:46:07,439
Speaker 1: a half, and the Browns three point favorites. It will

877
00:46:07,480 --> 00:46:10,520
Speaker 1: be interesting to see if you teased all of those three,

878
00:46:10,560 --> 00:46:12,520
Speaker 1: if that would hit as well. You tease Tampa up

879
00:46:12,560 --> 00:46:16,520
Speaker 1: to getting ten, you tease the Steelers to getting uh

880
00:46:16,920 --> 00:46:19,719
Speaker 1: seven and a half, and you tease the Browns to

881
00:46:19,920 --> 00:46:25,600
Speaker 1: getting three. Um that that that that's enticing. I don't know,

882
00:46:25,640 --> 00:46:28,040
Speaker 1: I listen. I'm my best bet though, is each of

883
00:46:28,040 --> 00:46:30,520
Speaker 1: those straight up? Everybody, have a great weekend. We'll talk

884
00:46:30,560 --> 00:46:31,120
Speaker 1: to you Monday.