Speaker 1: Check it down man Now down Now. Monday morning, October fourteen, nineteen.
Speaker 1: It's the Beating the Book Podcast, Kill Alexander. Week seven
Speaker 1: Guessing Lines, National Football League. You know how we do this.
Speaker 1: Chris Andrews standing by from Los Angeles. I will guess
Speaker 1: what I think the line will be. He will tell
Speaker 1: me what he's about to put up at the South
Speaker 1: Point Hotel Casino. And in that process and hopefully an
Speaker 1: interactive one where you're guessing along with me, we will
Speaker 1: try to reveal some value in upcoming weeks. NFL Action Now,
Speaker 1: as far as last week is concerned, meeting this past weekend.
Speaker 1: Week six will go through all the refereeing shenanigans, how
Speaker 1: historic the Cowboys loss was. Put all of this in context,
Speaker 1: how the good teams might not be as good as
Speaker 1: we think they are. Then there are the halves and
Speaker 1: the have nots in the ever growing chasm between them
Speaker 1: in a soft middle. Will do it all in detail.
Speaker 1: Guessing Lines Week seven weekly tradition right here at Beating
Speaker 1: the Book Podcast. Enjoy It's a numbers game. Kil Alexander
Speaker 1: wants to believe in the ANAS Monday morning, it is
Speaker 1: guessing lines right here on a numbers game at Visa
Speaker 1: Vega Stats and Information Network, Serious XM, Channel two four,
Speaker 1: Visa dot Com, and the Visa app food boastling game bloss. However,
Speaker 1: you're taking us in. Jeff Parls is here as well,
Speaker 1: producing number five. Good morning to Jeffrey. How was your
Speaker 1: weekend of football wagering? Let's try that again. How was
Speaker 1: your weekend going back to Missouri and bragging to your
Speaker 1: to all your form. I was humble. I was humble.
Speaker 1: I had a great weekend. No, it was. It was
Speaker 1: good to be back, good to be back in Columbia,
Speaker 1: Mo for for a few days, but even better to
Speaker 1: be back with you. Gil Oh, stop it, um. Let's
Speaker 1: put it this way from me. This week in the
Speaker 1: National Football League, two games in which I was up
Speaker 1: seventeen to three, didn't get home on either of those.
Speaker 1: There were four games on guessing lines last week where
Speaker 1: I picked the UH, the wrong team being favored two
Speaker 1: of those one two of those didn't get switched ones
Speaker 1: I picked. That's the kind of frustrating sunday. It was
Speaker 1: for me a great day for the books. I'm sure.
Speaker 1: Let's bring in the UH, the star of guessing lines
Speaker 1: for those who are just landing on this show for
Speaker 1: the first time. This is a tribute to the old
Speaker 1: Stardust show back of the day with Roxy Roxborough, where
Speaker 1: I don't know what the lines are, I guess them.
Speaker 1: And as we're finding out this year, with the ever
Speaker 1: increasing chasm between the halves and the have nots of
Speaker 1: the NFL and the matchups, my guesses are getting more
Speaker 1: and more wildly horrific week after week. Uh. Willing to
Speaker 1: be the butt of that joke, but hopefully in the
Speaker 1: process we find some betting value. Let's bring in the star.
Speaker 1: He's the South Point Hotel casino sports book director from
Speaker 1: Los Angeles. Today, it's our friend Chris Andrews. Good morning, Chris,
Speaker 1: ay and well, um, I'm sure it was a good
Speaker 1: weekend for you. Let's start there. How did it go? Uh?
Speaker 1: And well, we didn't have such a great Saturday, I
Speaker 1: tell you that. But Sunday the pros were very very good.
Speaker 1: Morning didn't start out great. A lot of steam on
Speaker 1: Houston and you know, I'm sure we'll be talking about
Speaker 1: those two teams. A lot of scheme on Minnesota, so
Speaker 1: those two teams get there. But we had some a
Speaker 1: couple other games in the morning to save this Miami
Speaker 1: and Washington. A lot of steam on Washington of course,
Speaker 1: can get there, have a feeling you're gonna have something
Speaker 1: to say about that, and uh, as long as the
Speaker 1: other game, I was like, oh yeah, I can't remember.
Speaker 1: We had another really good game in the morning. Um,
Speaker 1: but that's kind of saved our morning. And then the
Speaker 1: afternoon there really was kind of a clean sweet you know,
Speaker 1: we won all the afternoon games and even the game
Speaker 1: last night, so we wanted over a really really good
Speaker 1: Sunday a laugher last night, which we'll get to. We'll
Speaker 1: get to all of them, so the process of guessing
Speaker 1: these will talk about all the games that went down yesterday.
Speaker 1: Before we start, though, let's go to Dave Tooley's tweet
Speaker 1: vicent Zone Dave Tili, this is that view from Vegas. Uh,
Speaker 1: Dave sort of as he does each and every day,
Speaker 1: giving us a synopsis, uh, the headline if you will,
Speaker 1: in National Football League betting, and that there's a lot
Speaker 1: of numbers there, but let me just focus in on
Speaker 1: the middle and the bottom here. This is now in
Speaker 1: terms of dogs underdogs this year. And first of all,
Speaker 1: there were nine and four, uh, make it ten and
Speaker 1: four after last night in uh or nine and four
Speaker 1: after last night, and week six of the NFL with
Speaker 1: seven upsets. But here's under dogs for the year fifty three,
Speaker 1: thirty five and two against the spread sixty two percent
Speaker 1: on the season, and then road teams fifty four thirty
Speaker 1: three or two against the spread sixty two point one percent.
Speaker 1: That's the kind of year it has been through six
Speaker 1: weeks of the NFL. And Jeff, I don't expect I
Speaker 1: don't expect it to change. I really don't. Just that
Speaker 1: volatile couldn't change, of course a good but I guess
Speaker 1: what I'm saying, the randomness of it all, I don't
Speaker 1: expect to change. Christy, shall we start with Thursday night game?
Speaker 1: Let's do it? Yeah, before you get into that there,
Speaker 1: let me just say I don't think the home field
Speaker 1: advantage means nearly what it did even just a few
Speaker 1: short years ago. Travel is much easier for these players,
Speaker 1: and you've got private planes and all that stuff, and
Speaker 1: the way that you know, if you look at the
Speaker 1: Charger Steeler game last night, do you think you're you're
Speaker 1: at you know, at Hines Field, you know, and I
Speaker 1: think you have that in a lot of different situations
Speaker 1: where the home field and the fans. So we're gonna
Speaker 1: always argue like what exactly causes the home field advantage?
Speaker 1: You know, But part of it is the fans, and
Speaker 1: I think they affect the referees more than they affect
Speaker 1: the players, you know. But we're just not seeing that
Speaker 1: nearly as much anymore in the NFL on so I
Speaker 1: would always be careful with that home field advantage. It's
Speaker 1: an automatic three points. I'm not sure that's so automatic. Well,
Speaker 1: James let anyway, James, Yeah, James Leaders who won the
Speaker 1: Super Contest a few years back, was third place the
Speaker 1: year after twenty six. Two years after that he was
Speaker 1: on the show. He was on a Numbers game on Friday,
Speaker 1: and that was the one of them. I think the
Speaker 1: perhaps the most interesting point that we seized on we is, yeah,
Speaker 1: it's one thing we know about that with the Chargers
Speaker 1: home field and say the Redskins home field, right, extreme
Speaker 1: situations where the crowd is now overrun by opposing fans.
Speaker 1: Overrun is not an understatement. Like you said, you could
Speaker 1: see it last night with all the terrible towels. But
Speaker 1: just generally speaking, um, you know, we used to talk
Speaker 1: about arrowhead right. Well, all of a sudden, when the
Speaker 1: Colts go in there and beat him and the Texans
Speaker 1: go in there and beat him, no one ever talks
Speaker 1: about the home field that arrow anymore. Right, It's just
Speaker 1: it doesn't exist in so many places. Maybe it will
Speaker 1: in the postseason. I have no doubt that it will, um,
Speaker 1: but it certainly has never meant less. I think that's
Speaker 1: the main theme as well. I think you're right to
Speaker 1: seize all for sure. For sure, and that's a difference
Speaker 1: in him. All right, let's do Thursday. Okay, we have
Speaker 1: Kansas City, speaking of staggering in Kansas City at Denver,
Speaker 1: the difference that two weeks make. UM, two weeks ago
Speaker 1: you have an undefeated Chiefs and a winless Broncos. Now
Speaker 1: here we are two weeks later, Chiefs are four and two.
Speaker 1: They're going to Denver who's two and four. And this
Speaker 1: is this is also the theme where you can say, here,
Speaker 1: after six weeks, think about your perception of teams what
Speaker 1: you had right the one And I'll just go around
Speaker 1: the lead before we get back to this game. Take
Speaker 1: the NFC East, right, Like the Cowboys and Eagles, you
Speaker 1: know they play each other this week. One of them
Speaker 1: is going to have a losing record. Barring a tie,
Speaker 1: one of them is gonna having is gonna have a
Speaker 1: losing record. The Giants are one out, the Redskins are
Speaker 1: two out. Uh. The Browns, who got all that preseason love,
Speaker 1: are no better than the Broncos or the Giants in
Speaker 1: terms of the record. Uh. The Raiders are better than
Speaker 1: those teams. Like, it's just it's amazing how you have
Speaker 1: to completely rejigger everything you think about these teams. So
Speaker 1: the Chiefs come in on a two game losing streaks,
Speaker 1: the Broncos two game winning streak. If the Broncos win this,
Speaker 1: they're one behind the Chiefs. That's how ridiculous all this is. Yesterday,
Speaker 1: the Chiefs lose to the Texans. Uh, and they do
Speaker 1: so by the score of I just want to get
Speaker 1: the final score. This is one of the games that
Speaker 1: I had yesterday, right, Chiefs were up seventeen to three.
Speaker 1: They end up losing thirty one to twenty four. Patrick
Speaker 1: Mahomes nineteen thirty five for two seventy three, which is
Speaker 1: really stifling him, three touchdowns, one pick, his first pick
Speaker 1: of the season. Tyreek Hill did come back five catches
Speaker 1: eighty yards, two touchdowns returned for the first time is
Speaker 1: breaking his collar bone in Week one in Jacksonville, but
Speaker 1: eleven penalties for the Chiefs seventy nine yards In fact,
Speaker 1: that game another theme in the NFL Crizzy. That game
Speaker 1: combined twenty one penalties totally excuse me, totally nearly a
Speaker 1: hundred fifty yards. That didn't include close to a dozen
Speaker 1: flags that were off setting, overruled, or declined. Cheez Chiefs
Speaker 1: led seventeen to three. As I said, I had them
Speaker 1: turning point if you can pinpoint one spot. The Texans
Speaker 1: took the lead into the locker room, and this was
Speaker 1: I was screaming at the TV. Kansas City's Wan thorn
Speaker 1: Hill picks off a Deshaun Watson pass lay in the
Speaker 1: first half. He should have knocked it down instead. It's
Speaker 1: like a twenty yard uh difference. Mahomes, of course, then
Speaker 1: gets strip sacked with twenty seconds left deep in their
Speaker 1: own territory. Houston recovers Deshaun waltz Is into the end
Speaker 1: zone on the very next play. Casey was held at
Speaker 1: three hundred nine total yards. They gave up four hundred
Speaker 1: and seventy two their defense Kansas Cities. That is is
Speaker 1: a sieve. It is atrocious. Guys are wide open all
Speaker 1: over the field. Forget the receivers. Running backs are going
Speaker 1: through four lane highways making eight lane high was it ridiculous? Denver,
Speaker 1: on the other hand, and I got this game wrong.
Speaker 1: I had Tennessee favorite Tennessee just atrocious Denver on offense
Speaker 1: two of fourteen on first on third downs, but they
Speaker 1: held Tennessee to the same to a fourteen on third downs,
Speaker 1: held Tennessee to two d four total yards, held him
Speaker 1: the thirty nine on the ground. Denver's d had seven sacks,
Speaker 1: three picks, sent Mariota to the bench. Then Ryan Tannehill
Speaker 1: stifled him sixteen and nothing. First shutout in two years
Speaker 1: for the Broncos. They haven't allowed to touchdown in nine quarters,
Speaker 1: and the chance to get back into the a f
Speaker 1: C West Race after starting the Fangio Era. Oh when
Speaker 1: four um Chiefs on the road, God chiefs minus four
Speaker 1: and a half, It was four and a half. I
Speaker 1: was like to look aheadline, it's now three and a half,
Speaker 1: and I gotta tell you, wow, Uh, just looking at
Speaker 1: the pinnacle line looks like some money showing on Denver. Uh.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna start with three and a half and see,
Speaker 1: but you know, I am a feeling this game might
Speaker 1: go to three. I'll tell you two things that about
Speaker 1: this game last week. You didn't touch on Uh, Denver
Speaker 1: sacked the Tennessee quarterback seven times, you know, between Mariotta
Speaker 1: and Tannehill. And you know what really bugged me about
Speaker 1: Kansas City because we needed Kansas City. So I was
Speaker 1: watching that game pretty good. They ran the ball eleven times,
Speaker 1: you know, I mean Mahomes had you know, we knew
Speaker 1: he had that ankle problem. I mean he looked, he
Speaker 1: looked Okay, he wasn't terrible by any means. It wasn't
Speaker 1: his fault they lost. It was really the defense. But
Speaker 1: part of it is this team never ran the ball.
Speaker 1: They ran the ball a total of eleven times. You're
Speaker 1: in a closed game. I mean, come on, I know
Speaker 1: Andy Reid really has a strong belief in the in
Speaker 1: the passing game, but how can you only run the
Speaker 1: ball eleven times in a game like that? I think
Speaker 1: that's crazy. So those things really bugged me. And uh,
Speaker 1: you know, Denver, I'm still not on the fan Guido bandwagon,
Speaker 1: but maybe starting to figure out this head coaching stuff
Speaker 1: a little bit. Because they didn't what they had to
Speaker 1: do to win the game. That's obviously the most important thing.
Speaker 1: Eleven carries for the Cheese. I did mention the Broncos
Speaker 1: seven sacks, by the way, seven sacks and three picks
Speaker 1: against Mariota Taylor. You know the other thing about the Broncos,
Speaker 1: by the way in this game, I don't know if
Speaker 1: people are paying attention and fantasy people will notice this
Speaker 1: um inside linebacker Alexander Johnson as soon as they've put
Speaker 1: him into the starting lineup. And again, coincidence or or correlation,
Speaker 1: you'd you'd be the judge. But last week he made
Speaker 1: his first start since uh, November two thousand four for
Speaker 1: Tennessee versus Kentucky. Hasn't started a game since that day.
Speaker 1: In college, he got nine tackles and a pick against
Speaker 1: the Chargers than yesterday, nine tackles, two quarterback hits, one
Speaker 1: and a half sacks, tackle for a loss. He has
Speaker 1: helped tremendously. So I say four and a half and
Speaker 1: you say you're starting at three and a half. Yeah, okay,
Speaker 1: all right, let's do Let's go to sun. I have
Speaker 1: a feeling this game is going to three. No evidence
Speaker 1: of it yet, but I just have imagine that though
Speaker 1: the difference of two weeks, right, the two weeks ago,
Speaker 1: if we had said here, he guess what, the Chiefs
Speaker 1: might might end up being a three point favorite on
Speaker 1: the road against the Broncos, we'd we'd laughed, that's the
Speaker 1: NFL today. Seven. Yeah, it would have been seven. Recency,
Speaker 1: recency bias, or maybe what we were watching before wasn't
Speaker 1: the cause. Listen, when you have a bad defense like
Speaker 1: Kansas City does, it doesn't matter what the rest of
Speaker 1: your two like. It is just so hard to watch
Speaker 1: and they are terrible. It's worse than that defense. That
Speaker 1: defense was not setting records last year either, but this
Speaker 1: defense is markedly worse. And of course with a couple
Speaker 1: of big losses with Ford in Houston. Yeah, go ahead,
Speaker 1: I'm sorry. I was gonna mention. You know, one of
Speaker 1: the things Bill Walster, I remember him talking about the
Speaker 1: way to protect the lead in the NFL because you're
Speaker 1: running the football and you rushed the pass, or well,
Speaker 1: Kansas City can't do either one of those. Yeah, I
Speaker 1: don't know. Deshaun Watson was sitting back there having lunch.
Speaker 1: He was never pressured. It's unbelievable, all right, let's go
Speaker 1: to Sunday, Chrissy Okay. Next up Arizona at the New
Speaker 1: York Giants. I would assume this has to be three.
Speaker 1: Arizona gets the win. They get a win against the
Speaker 1: Falcons when Matt Bryant shanks or hooks of an extra
Speaker 1: point attempt late in the game and Arizona ends up
Speaker 1: winning it UH thirty four to thirty three. Against the
Speaker 1: Atlanta Falcons, we'll get to them. Kyler Murray thirty seven,
Speaker 1: three forty three touchdowns note picks first NFL quarterback to
Speaker 1: have at least twenty completions in his first six career games.
Speaker 1: That The Cardinals were seven of thirteen on third downs.
Speaker 1: Um they got a couple of breaks. There was a
Speaker 1: play where DeMier Bird looked like he might have fumbled
Speaker 1: after fifty eight yard catch, call upheld. Murray ran for
Speaker 1: first down of the game's final drive to seal it,
Speaker 1: and they reviewed it and they gave it to him.
Speaker 1: But where the ball was situated, I'm not sure he
Speaker 1: got the first down. Atlanta might have had another opportunity,
Speaker 1: but instead that went their way too. And the Giants
Speaker 1: here are an extra rest. Giants are coming off of bye,
Speaker 1: so Giants minus three right at home to three and
Speaker 1: one versus two and four. Yeah, I see. You know
Speaker 1: we're in the famous two and a three zone. Two
Speaker 1: and a juice on the favorite three juice on the dock.
Speaker 1: I think I'm gonna open at three though. You know
Speaker 1: I knocked this Kyler Murray as much as Anne Buddy.
Speaker 1: You know, Jil I might be wrong. I mean he
Speaker 1: looked pretty good yesterday. I don't think he had any sacks. Uh,
Speaker 1: you know his QBR let me find it, Let me
Speaker 1: find it. His QBR was ninety point three. So Sammy
Speaker 1: had three touchdowns, no interceptions. He really looked pretty good.
Speaker 1: They didn't run the ball very well. But Johnson had
Speaker 1: twelve carries thirty four yards. But you know they got
Speaker 1: fortunate on the on the call, fortunate on the mixed
Speaker 1: extra point by Brian. But Gil, let me say one thing,
Speaker 1: Why can't you have an onside kick like the old days?
Speaker 1: Why do you currently have five guys on that side
Speaker 1: of that's like, you know, that's one of the most
Speaker 1: exciting plays in football, and the only time you do
Speaker 1: it is desperation times and they completely eliminated that from
Speaker 1: the game. They Why did they do that that's that's one. Listen,
Speaker 1: there's a bunch of rules I've got to change. That's one.
Speaker 1: You know why they did it, right, They wanted to.
Speaker 1: It's sort of like the kickoff return thing. They want
Speaker 1: to minimize collisions. Um, but yes, I would I would
Speaker 1: say that you're right that this in a perhaps in
Speaker 1: an unanticipated way, maybe that you know, maybe they didn't
Speaker 1: think it through. Maybe they did, but it does take
Speaker 1: away the you know that possibility right that quote unquote
Speaker 1: hail Mary of of a final play where possession you know,
Speaker 1: uh stays with the team that just scored, and it
Speaker 1: it should change the way teams strategize when they're coming
Speaker 1: back to right. It should change their calculus on whether
Speaker 1: they're just kicking extra points are going for two, like,
Speaker 1: everything should now change because you have to assume you'll
Speaker 1: never recover an on sidekick again. Um so anyway, that's
Speaker 1: not a very excited I hate that rule. You know,
Speaker 1: there's a couple of rules. How about if some of
Speaker 1: these five yard penalties automatic first down? Oh I don't
Speaker 1: I don't get that. Why isn't it when it's offensive
Speaker 1: pass interferers? Why is an automatic fourth down? How about
Speaker 1: that on everything, you know, favoring the offense. You know,
Speaker 1: I don't know, I just I don't like that. You know,
Speaker 1: there's some of these calls are just too egregious. And
Speaker 1: you know you, I know what you're saying about avoiding
Speaker 1: the collegiance. We'll stay home on Sunday. They don't avoid
Speaker 1: all collises, right, I hate that. I hate that little
Speaker 1: I'm just telling you what they're thinking. That what I'm thinking. Um, Yeah, look,
Speaker 1: there's so many of these. We've talked about them so
Speaker 1: many times. On offense. Right, if a defensive player puts
Speaker 1: their hand on a on a face mask anywhere near
Speaker 1: the head, instant penalty. But if a but if a
Speaker 1: ball carrier just takes his hand and absolutely destroys the
Speaker 1: defender's face, awful times, it doesn't get called at all,
Speaker 1: you know. So there's there's a whole bunch of the
Speaker 1: it's the beautiful play, yeah, what a play? Um, And
Speaker 1: don't get me started on the fumble. Fumble through the
Speaker 1: end zone, to me is the most illogical one of
Speaker 1: them all, um, Which go which changes pos? Yeah? All right,
Speaker 1: let's do one more because I don't want to end
Speaker 1: the segment on that unsexy game between the Cardinals of
Speaker 1: the Giants. What's one O. Yeah. By the way, I
Speaker 1: am gonna open three in that okay, uh okay. Hugh
Speaker 1: to spin at Indianapolis. Houston and Indianapolis. The Texans we
Speaker 1: talked about briefly beat the Chiefs. Deshaun Watson thirty of
Speaker 1: forty two for two eighty one touchdown, two picks. The
Speaker 1: main thing with the Texans, and you can just if
Speaker 1: you review box scores, if you had the hindsight of
Speaker 1: box scores, just look at how many times times the
Speaker 1: Shawn gets sacked. If he gets sacked a mess of times,
Speaker 1: they're in trouble. If he's clean, they win pretty much
Speaker 1: every time. Carlos Hide in his return to Kansas City,
Speaker 1: remember they traded him to Houston in the preseason when
Speaker 1: the Chiefs decided, uh, yeah, you're you're from we don't
Speaker 1: need you. Twenty six carries a hundred sixteen yards. That
Speaker 1: must have been good for him, felt good for him.
Speaker 1: But as I mentioned, four d seventy two yards for
Speaker 1: the Texans three oh nine to the Chargers in total yards.
Speaker 1: They outgained him on the ground one to fifty three.
Speaker 1: Time of possession thirty ninety eight to nineteen twelve. Uh,
Speaker 1: Texans too had a whole bunch of penalties ten for
Speaker 1: seventy um Indianapolis coming off a by I'll say Indianapolis
Speaker 1: minus two and a half. This is a game in
Speaker 1: the a f C South early season. Houston four and two,
Speaker 1: the Colts three and two. You're you're a little high.
Speaker 1: I see one and one and a half. I like
Speaker 1: the higher number. I'm gonna open one and a half,
Speaker 1: but I could see where you're going with this. I'm
Speaker 1: not saying I don't like your number better. I might,
Speaker 1: but I think Indianapolis, like he said, with the extra rest,
Speaker 1: you know a team. Listen, they got shocked and rocked
Speaker 1: early in the season when they lost the Andrew Luck.
Speaker 1: But Jacoby presents not bad, and there's a team like
Speaker 1: That's why I feel bad for me Andrew Luck. This
Speaker 1: is finally a good team that they've built in Indianapolis.
Speaker 1: But I think this team was way underrated. I think
Speaker 1: people are starting to realize how good they are. I
Speaker 1: like the higher number. I like the one and a
Speaker 1: half here a little bit better. Houston is very good,
Speaker 1: probably a little better than I thought there too, But uh,
Speaker 1: you know, I don't think he's gonna have that clean
Speaker 1: pocket all day against the Colts like he did against
Speaker 1: Kansas City. Watson and talking about so I kind of like,
Speaker 1: I like Indianapolis in this spot. So I'm gonna open
Speaker 1: the higher number one APP. But there's a lot of
Speaker 1: ones around two alright, one and a half. I'm okay
Speaker 1: with that. I had two and app, but I'm okay
Speaker 1: with that. We'll come back, We'll do more of these.
Speaker 1: I have a feeling by although those guests seem to
Speaker 1: be pretty much in pocket, and I know some of
Speaker 1: the matchups, so I have have a bad feeling about
Speaker 1: some of these. It's all brought to you by the
Speaker 1: bet mgm app. By the way, football season of course
Speaker 1: in full swing and for first time app users, well,
Speaker 1: you can make your first bet completely risk free up
Speaker 1: to five hundred dollars. Same guys that bring you Atlantic
Speaker 1: City's premier hotel and casino, Borgata be with the all
Speaker 1: season long, with a wide variety of betting options, an
Speaker 1: easy deposit withdrawal methods. Just download the bet mgm app
Speaker 1: use bonus code v SEN five hundred. It's signed up
Speaker 1: to get your five hundred dollar risk free bet. That's
Speaker 1: bonus code v s I N five hundred to place
Speaker 1: your first bet MGM wager risk free. You can sign
Speaker 1: up benywhere, but you gotta be in the state of
Speaker 1: New Jersey specifically to place a bet bet MGM. It's
Speaker 1: how you play the game. Download the app today. Gotta
Speaker 1: be twenty one years of age year older. New Jersey
Speaker 1: only restrictions apply the bet MGM app. Coming Back More
Speaker 1: guessing lines Week seven in the NFL with Chris Andrews.
Speaker 1: Coming back on Visa Welcome back to a Numbers game
Speaker 1: with Kill Alexander. We, of course, are nearing the halfway
Speaker 1: point of the NFL season. Already gotten there in college
Speaker 1: football regular season? Do you know where your bank roll is?
Speaker 1: Your guys in the Desert are here to help with
Speaker 1: the special offer. Get Visas All Access subscription. Let me
Speaker 1: try that again. All Access subscription Jeff Parls for just
Speaker 1: dollars through the Super Bowl. Packed includes seventeen issues of
Speaker 1: Points Spread Weekly, Visa's digital magazine on sports betting, designed
Speaker 1: to make you a better handicap or not just this week,
Speaker 1: but for months to come. Our special betting guides previewing
Speaker 1: the NBA College Basketball and College Football Bowls seasons the NBA.
Speaker 1: Right around the corner seven, live video stream of Visa
Speaker 1: programs was replays afternoon email with any recommended plays from
Speaker 1: hosts and their guests, and proprietary power ratings and trends
Speaker 1: on Visa dot com updated constantly, along with exclusive subscriber
Speaker 1: only stories. Learn more at Visa dot com slash subscribe.
Speaker 1: That's Visa dot com slash subscribe, and if you're not
Speaker 1: sure yet, there's even an option for a free trial
Speaker 1: all of it at Visa dot com slash subscribe alright.
Speaker 1: Guessing lines Week seven National Football League already mentioned frustrating
Speaker 1: Sunday from me and that two of the teams I
Speaker 1: had Chiefs and Redskins up seventeen to three and neither cover.
Speaker 1: I would say, the Chiefs, even up seventeen to three,
Speaker 1: we're not even close to being the right side. Even
Speaker 1: when they were up, you knew it wasn't the case.
Speaker 1: Redskins probably had no business not covering. And then of
Speaker 1: the four games that I picked, the uh the wrong
Speaker 1: side favored, two came home. Two didn't Guess which ones
Speaker 1: I ended up picking the ones that didn't. Sal It
Speaker 1: goes sometimes Tennessee and the Buccaneers, whereas the h the
Speaker 1: Saints and the Seahawks did come through in those So
Speaker 1: just frustrating. That's how it goes sometimes by miss book.
Speaker 1: Christie Andrews is here the south Point Sports Book director
Speaker 1: at Andrew's Sports by the Ways, where you can follow
Speaker 1: him on Twitter. And again the book from Chrissy. Then
Speaker 1: one day all those story times from the Beating the
Speaker 1: Book podcast and from a numbers game all culled together
Speaker 1: in written form where he gets to actually expect owned
Speaker 1: on them. Um, that's the book and it's available everywhere still, yes, Chrissie,
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, oh yeah, Amazon, They tell me it's the
Speaker 1: easiest place to get it, and that, you know. I
Speaker 1: talked to uh Lynn Ravens Craft, who I think you know,
Speaker 1: she's a head of marketing for the South Point. For
Speaker 1: some reason, it hasn't been in the gift shop and
Speaker 1: I thought it would have been taken care of, but
Speaker 1: I've been gone for almost four months now, so I'm
Speaker 1: hoping to get that in the gift shop at the
Speaker 1: south Point, so that might be one more place to
Speaker 1: get it, but as yet not not not available yet
Speaker 1: south Point gift Shop. Let's get that going all right, Chris, Uh,
Speaker 1: what's what's the next game here? And by the way,
Speaker 1: how many what's the afternoon? What's the early game? Afternoon
Speaker 1: breakdown yesterday? Much more civilized with four afternoon games, three
Speaker 1: afternoon games this coming week. And uh, there's a couple.
Speaker 1: There's there's two I would call pretty darn good, one
Speaker 1: not so good. Three afternoon games. Let's continue with the
Speaker 1: morning games to midnight game. I think it's very good.
Speaker 1: So we're still on the morning here, Okay. Miami at Buffalo,
Speaker 1: Miama at Buffalo. Miami loses to the Redskins seventeen to sixteen.
Speaker 1: Redskins were up seventeen to three the previously owen five
Speaker 1: Redskins against the previously owen four Dolphins. Skins up seventeen
Speaker 1: to three. Fourth quarter and Josh Rosen, who was fifteen
Speaker 1: of twenty five eighty five yards fifteen eighty five, no touchdowns,
Speaker 1: two picks sacked five times, a passer rating which is
Speaker 1: scored out a one fifty eight point three of thirty
Speaker 1: two point nine. Brian Flores and the Dolphins decide we're
Speaker 1: gonna bench Josh Rosen and incomes Fits Magic and the
Speaker 1: Dolphins storm back to seventeen to sixteen, and they decide,
Speaker 1: you know what, let's put everybody out of their misery here,
Speaker 1: let's go for two. Let's not pushing over time. We
Speaker 1: either win this or we lose this. And that might
Speaker 1: have been the worst two point conversion I've ever seen
Speaker 1: in my life here, So how every first of all,
Speaker 1: as a Redskin better, I'm like, as a Redskins better,
Speaker 1: I was like, oh god, they're going for two. I'm screwed.
Speaker 1: As a guy who wanted to see the Redskins win,
Speaker 1: and as Redskins fans will tell you this is the emotion,
Speaker 1: was this, Oh my god, we could lose this, Oh
Speaker 1: we won? Like it was just that bat of a play.
Speaker 1: Running Back Kenyan Drake couldn't handle a quick throw from
Speaker 1: Fitzpatrick in the flat on a two point conversion try
Speaker 1: with six seconds left. By the way, even if he
Speaker 1: catches that, there's four Redskins ready to maul him. So
Speaker 1: the Redskins escape seventeen and sixty. The Dolphins remain windless there,
Speaker 1: oh in five. Either that was a great tank two
Speaker 1: point conversion or they were really trying, you'd be the judge.
Speaker 1: Miami still has never they never led. Yesterday by the way.
Speaker 1: They've been ahead in games for a grand total of
Speaker 1: three minutes and forty nine seconds thus far this year.
Speaker 1: Um they remain on pace for the lowest scoring sixteen
Speaker 1: game season in NFL history. Josh Rosen will remain the
Speaker 1: starter per Brian flora Is in this game at Buffalo
Speaker 1: Buffaloes four and one. They're coming off a bye, and
Speaker 1: here comes the guest, Chrissie. Let me just brace you
Speaker 1: for this. Do we do we live in the world?
Speaker 1: Do we live in a world now where the Buffalo
Speaker 1: Bills are fourteen point home favorites against the Miami Dolphins.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna say fourteen. Uh no, we don't, because there
Speaker 1: are seventeen points. You have got to be Wow, the
Speaker 1: Buffalo sixteen to seventeen. I'm opening seventeen. And by the way,
Speaker 1: Josh Rosen, you mentioned fellow tribesmen to two point eight
Speaker 1: qb R zero and a hundred. Yeah, but by the way,
Speaker 1: there's one quarterback worse than that, and I'm sure we'll
Speaker 1: get there. But two point eight you got sacked five times.
Speaker 1: I mean, he was atrocious. And and this Buffalo defense,
Speaker 1: I mean that I'm not sure they're not the best
Speaker 1: defense in the NFL. I mean, the torture this poor
Speaker 1: young man. And I'm opening seventeen. Uh, totals only, like
Speaker 1: totals only thirty nine. I know that's a lot of
Speaker 1: wood to carry for a thirty nine point total, But
Speaker 1: I'm gonna open seventeen. You know, wive guys will probably
Speaker 1: take it. I'm sure the public will overpower them comes Sunday.
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna open seventeen and see where they want
Speaker 1: to go with that, because I you know, you're right
Speaker 1: there when you're opening statement, talked about the halves and
Speaker 1: they have not well I'm not even sure Buffalo is
Speaker 1: a half, but Miami is most certainly I have not
Speaker 1: that I can tell you. So here here's my emotions
Speaker 1: of that one. Again, getting back to mercy. We live
Speaker 1: in a world where this is the case now right.
Speaker 1: We live in an NFL world where we just like,
Speaker 1: you know, Buffalo is a seventeen point favorite at home
Speaker 1: against Miami. And by the way, when I said fourteen,
Speaker 1: I was like, wow, I'm I'm really getting frisky. And
Speaker 1: then when you say seventeen, I sort of think about it.
Speaker 1: I'm like, yeah, I mean, I guess like I don't
Speaker 1: really have a problem with it. I don't think it's outlandish,
Speaker 1: it's crazy, and I think that's why I like guessing lines.
Speaker 1: This year, these guesses will get worse and worse the
Speaker 1: way this is going. That's crazy. Buffalo is seventeen points
Speaker 1: at home against the Dolphins. Good lord, well, I think
Speaker 1: that if Fitzpatrick was starting, I don't think you'd see
Speaker 1: seventeens listen. I mean, there's a guys that have said it,
Speaker 1: so there is no way an original statement on my part.
Speaker 1: But they the NFL ruins more quarterbacks and they developed
Speaker 1: and there it looks like they're trying to ruin this
Speaker 1: poor kid, you know. I mean, you know, they announced
Speaker 1: him as a starter for the rest of the season.
Speaker 1: Why why. I mean, I'm not sure that they're they're
Speaker 1: doing the best thing to developed this kid long term,
Speaker 1: I don't think so. I said that to Parlay before
Speaker 1: the show. I said to him, my go I said,
Speaker 1: why why are they doing that to this kid? And
Speaker 1: then the counter to that is, you know what I've
Speaker 1: said this before, like, okay, well if there's a kid,
Speaker 1: and you you know I said it with the Giants,
Speaker 1: I like, why are we playing Eli Manning? We should
Speaker 1: have Daniel Jones play all the time? What why are
Speaker 1: we messing around? But I do think there are certain
Speaker 1: quarterbacks Dwayne Haskins comes to mind with the Redskins, where yeah,
Speaker 1: maybe not so fast, right, like let's just let's just
Speaker 1: sit him on the side, and no good is gonna
Speaker 1: come with this. But the Josh Rosen thing is a
Speaker 1: different thing. Right, they traded for him, he's played a
Speaker 1: year and if he's not ready to go, Chris good lord, right,
Speaker 1: I mean that's a different thing. But seventeen points you
Speaker 1: look at the team around him, and we talked about
Speaker 1: them tanking. I mean, are they tanking? I mean, I
Speaker 1: guess that's debatable. The guys on the field are not tanking.
Speaker 1: But the upper management is not that much to give
Speaker 1: this guy, first of all, any protection in the offensive line.
Speaker 1: No running game defense is and horrible, I guess, you know,
Speaker 1: but you know, this kid is not being groomed for
Speaker 1: success at this point that I kind of feel for
Speaker 1: him that Fitzpatrick. Listen, he is what he is at
Speaker 1: this point. You know, it's not like he's gonna win
Speaker 1: you anything great, but you know, so it's the thirty five,
Speaker 1: thirty six years old, he's made a fortune in this league,
Speaker 1: and uh, you know, I hate to throw anybody to
Speaker 1: the wolves, but really they're throwing the whole team to
Speaker 1: the wolves. And I don't know. I feel sorry for
Speaker 1: Rosen and I think he's not gonna have a good career.
Speaker 1: And I think you're looking at part of it right here.
Speaker 1: Why they traded for him, I don't know. But but
Speaker 1: you know, again, that's a question for upper management because
Speaker 1: here looks like they're certainly playing for a first round
Speaker 1: quarterback this coming draft. It's an interesting it's an interesting
Speaker 1: way you phrase that the league ruins more quarterbacks, uh
Speaker 1: than it makes. We're going through this list last night.
Speaker 1: How many quarterbacks are there in the National Football League
Speaker 1: that strike fear in you if you're backing the opposing team,
Speaker 1: And literally the list is six people on Brady Brees, Rogers, Mahomes,
Speaker 1: Wentson Wilson. Six six. That's the list. You can then
Speaker 1: sort of argue underneath that group, there's the Rivers Stafford,
Speaker 1: Jimmy g Deshaun Watson either guys that are serviceably good,
Speaker 1: older players, are guys on their way up and you're
Speaker 1: still not sure about them group, And then there's that
Speaker 1: other group of like you're sure, not sure, And it's
Speaker 1: maybe a tier below, which is the Kirk Cousins of
Speaker 1: the world and the Matt Ryan's and the Lamar Jackson's
Speaker 1: and the Dak Prescott's. But really there's six that are
Speaker 1: just great. That's it, six, you know, and I don't
Speaker 1: And now with you know, I don't think that's a
Speaker 1: debatable list really at this point with Big Ben out,
Speaker 1: I think it's sixty. So it's just to think about it.
Speaker 1: Thirty two jobs and uh, you know, I can't even
Speaker 1: get of them filled with greatness. So all right, let's
Speaker 1: do one more here, Chris, Well, they've damage they've damaged
Speaker 1: it from NFL network because there's seven billion people on Earth.
Speaker 1: We can't find thirty two guys to play quarterbacks. Right,
Speaker 1: It's so true. It's a great way to put it.
Speaker 1: All right, let's do one more Minnesota. Alright, Detroit has
Speaker 1: not played Detroit three and a half point dogs, now,
Speaker 1: is it? Jeff Tonight against Green Bay um should be
Speaker 1: a good Monday night game in the NFC North tonight.
Speaker 1: This is another NFC North matchup. Minnesota coming off a
Speaker 1: a very good win over the Eagles yesterday. Thirty eight
Speaker 1: to twenty. Kirk Cousins stand up twenty two of thirty
Speaker 1: three yards. That's a season high for him. Four touchdown passes,
Speaker 1: one pick. Stefon Diggs was on the receiving end, and
Speaker 1: most of that seven catches for one sixty seven He scored.
Speaker 1: Three touchdowns, scored on first half passes of fifty one
Speaker 1: and sixty two yards and maybe the biggest catch late
Speaker 1: in the third quarter, double toe tap back of the
Speaker 1: end zone from eleven yards out that pushed the lead
Speaker 1: to eleven points. It was twenty four to twenty. The
Speaker 1: Eagles had climbed back in it. Twenty at that point
Speaker 1: was seventeen straight points. It was three, got to within
Speaker 1: two twenty and then the Vikings put down the hammer.
Speaker 1: Eagles didn't have their starting quarter backs again. Ronald Darby,
Speaker 1: Avante Maddox Cousins took full advantage four forty seven total
Speaker 1: yards of the Vikings, their most emphatic win of the year.
Speaker 1: Um that said, without having seen Detroit, I'll say Vikings
Speaker 1: site unseen minus one and a half. This could be
Speaker 1: right up towards a pick. I don't know. I'd say
Speaker 1: minus one and a half road Vikings, I see a
Speaker 1: pick or the Vikings one. I'm gonna go with one
Speaker 1: here Vikings one. Uh, you know, Kirk Cousins another guy
Speaker 1: that I'm knocked. Does he turn it into a quarterback
Speaker 1: all of a sudden you talked about Yeah, but he
Speaker 1: looked pretty good now, I mean, maybe he's figuring out
Speaker 1: Stefon Diggs wanted traded? Didn't you want traded? He had
Speaker 1: a huge game yesterday. You know, the team is pretty good.
Speaker 1: They've got a pretty good three man roster, and probably
Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins is the beneficiary of that. Uh where has
Speaker 1: having note here somewhere then? You know, but you know,
Speaker 1: maybe they are kind of coming in into their own
Speaker 1: Cousins being a part of that. But I think part
Speaker 1: of it is the fact that they have such a
Speaker 1: good roster up and down the line up there. You know,
Speaker 1: all the steam neesterday was on Minnesota over over Philadelphia,
Speaker 1: which I was kind of surprised, to tell you the truth.
Speaker 1: Just to repressure everybody's memory. Last week we opened Minnesota
Speaker 1: and Philly. Minnesota three first wave of bets from the
Speaker 1: Shark guys came in on Philadelphia, so we went down
Speaker 1: to two and a half and since then, after that
Speaker 1: it was all Minnesota money. Now, I know we had
Speaker 1: some public money at the end to a lot of
Speaker 1: sharp money on Minnesota, lots of it. There is a huge,
Speaker 1: huge game for As a matter of fact, the Minnesota
Speaker 1: Philly game I think might have been the biggest handle
Speaker 1: game but we've ever had, barring the playoffs or super Bowl. Obvious,
Speaker 1: there was a huge handle on that game. Yeah, absolutely.
Speaker 1: Now part of that, part of that to the number,
Speaker 1: the three two and a half, three three and a half,
Speaker 1: so we were yeah, the I think the biggest handle
Speaker 1: of any games since I've been at the south Point.
Speaker 1: I've been the playoffs, on any regular season football games.
Speaker 1: It was monstrous and a great game, I mean, a great,
Speaker 1: great match of going in and you know Minnesota was
Speaker 1: clearly the better side distress. That's incredible. Wow, Um, biggest
Speaker 1: handled game at south Point, barring playoffs, barring any postseason game. Uh,
Speaker 1: since you've been at the south Point, that's uh, that's
Speaker 1: pretty amazing. There may be something else, but i'd have
Speaker 1: to go look at There's nothing that I remember being
Speaker 1: quite that big, but it was. It was huge. It
Speaker 1: was huge. All Right, We'll get some more lines week seven.
Speaker 1: I'm not sure what I like. Yet maybe that's a
Speaker 1: good sign because of the last week, as I said,
Speaker 1: I liked way too many. You know what that means,
Speaker 1: We'll come back. It's Chris Andrews right here on a
Speaker 1: Numbers game at Feasting. Welcome back to a Numbers game
Speaker 1: with Jill Alexander back on the Numbers game. I just
Speaker 1: want to react to a couple of things we talked
Speaker 1: about last set. One was that Chrissie just said the
Speaker 1: Minnesota Philadelphia handle here at the South Point was the
Speaker 1: greatest non postseason handle of any NFL game in his
Speaker 1: tenure here at the South Point Hotel Casino, which is
Speaker 1: kind of mind boggling to me because on the megapod
Speaker 1: that was the game I wanted the least part of.
Speaker 1: So that's one thing. The other thing is with the Redskins,
Speaker 1: or excuse me, with the Dolphins and the Bills. We
Speaker 1: said the Bills are favored by seventeen points. We live
Speaker 1: in a world where the Bills are seventeen point favorites
Speaker 1: against the Dolphins, and my guest was fourteen. And then
Speaker 1: when I heard the seventeen and I'm like, yeah, that
Speaker 1: sounds about right. But the totals thirty nine. If you
Speaker 1: do the point spread total conflation, that comes out to
Speaker 1: about eight to eleven kind of game, right exactly eleven.
Speaker 1: You think the Dolphins figure out a way to score
Speaker 1: eleven points. Team total's gotta be around ten and a half.
Speaker 1: I would imagine, I don't see how against that bills
Speaker 1: the and and then then it sparks to mind, well,
Speaker 1: if they started Josh Rosen against the Redskins and it
Speaker 1: was going so bad and they decided to put Ryan
Speaker 1: Fitzpatrick in, If they start Josh Rosen again and it
Speaker 1: goes even worse, are they gonna put Ryan Fitzpatrick back in? Like?
Speaker 1: What are they doing? And at two point conversion? Just
Speaker 1: to make one last comment about how suspect that two
Speaker 1: point conversion was, because again as a Redskin backer, I
Speaker 1: knew I was toast because they were gonna either win
Speaker 1: or lose, and the Redskins mindus, the point wasn't gonna
Speaker 1: come through. But as a Redskin fan, it just ended
Speaker 1: where it's like, oh they could lose, Oh look they won.
Speaker 1: Kenyan Drake said after the game, they asked him and
Speaker 1: they're like, have you this? Have you practiced this? And
Speaker 1: Kenyan Drake said Oh yeah, we we practice it, just
Speaker 1: not with me. So there's that. That's great, Oh what
Speaker 1: the Dolphins are doing, but it shouldn't feel like winning football,
Speaker 1: if you know what I mean, Chris, All of that
Speaker 1: just reactions that Minnesota Philadelphia game. Would you have ever
Speaker 1: been a would you have ever anticipated that would be
Speaker 1: the biggest handler? These is kind of thing that just
Speaker 1: happened organically. Now they happen organically, but I mean, really
Speaker 1: looks looks. I mean, let's call it for what it is.
Speaker 1: It's because of the three. And we went from three
Speaker 1: to two and a half to three to three and
Speaker 1: a half. So I mean that always stimulates the kind
Speaker 1: of action. And I know we've talked about this on
Speaker 1: the show. Well, I know the old number was sevent
Speaker 1: of the games where the point spread has any influence
Speaker 1: on the outcome. But move the game from two and
Speaker 1: a half to three and see what kind of action
Speaker 1: you can't you know, I mean, you get it off
Speaker 1: a lot. This is one of those games. I talked
Speaker 1: to Michael Gone before the day. Michael, we got to
Speaker 1: avoid the three of the Minnesota game. I mean, that's
Speaker 1: that we've got some big decisions. That's one of the
Speaker 1: biggest right there, because we've been back and forth between
Speaker 1: those three numbers two and half three, three and alps.
Speaker 1: We've got to avoid the three in this one, trust
Speaker 1: But of course she's well aware of it that. Of course,
Speaker 1: you've had thousands of games that I've been no, I'm sorry,
Speaker 1: but you've you've had hundreds of hundreds, if not thousands
Speaker 1: of games that have been threes before. Right, It's sort
Speaker 1: of like, what was it about this matchup that stimulated
Speaker 1: that much action? You know? I think the fact that
Speaker 1: it's two of the best thing is in the NFL,
Speaker 1: you know, And uh said we did. Usually it's like
Speaker 1: three or three and a half three, three, two and
Speaker 1: a half three, two and f three. Well here was
Speaker 1: two and a half all the way to three and
Speaker 1: a half m you know, so there's both sides of
Speaker 1: that three, you know, so you know and everything. And
Speaker 1: of course the first time listeners who don't notice, we
Speaker 1: do everything at the South Point at eleven at ten.
Speaker 1: We don't use juice, no juice on favorites or dogs.
Speaker 1: Everything is eleven at ten. And uh, you know, like
Speaker 1: I said, when you come to the South Point, you
Speaker 1: know you're gonna lay eleven at ten period. You might
Speaker 1: not add the number one, but you are going to
Speaker 1: lay eleven at ten. Yeah, policy policy or at the
Speaker 1: south point from the top down. All right, let's let's
Speaker 1: do one more here, Let's do one more. Uh. Oakland
Speaker 1: at green Bay, green Bay, Oakland coming off the by.
Speaker 1: They were in London when last we saw them. They
Speaker 1: were beating the Bears in London, um snatching, snatching a
Speaker 1: victory from a lead blown but making it happen at
Speaker 1: the end of the green Bay hasn't played yet. They
Speaker 1: played tonight, So you have again we talked about this
Speaker 1: Las as well. You have this weird circumstance where you
Speaker 1: have a team on extra rest playing a team on
Speaker 1: what that's gonna be on short rest? Um, and so
Speaker 1: sight unseen on the Packers tonight, I would imagine green
Speaker 1: Bay would be somewhere just shy of a touchdown favorite
Speaker 1: again barring you know, the unforeseen tonight. So I'll say
Speaker 1: green Bay minus six and a half. Yeah, that's exactly
Speaker 1: what it is. But I do see some sevens around.
Speaker 1: I like the six and a half better. You know
Speaker 1: you you mentioned it and it came. I think I
Speaker 1: really was part of the the uh, the Seattle Cleveland
Speaker 1: game yesterday, Cleveland on short rest, Seattle on extended rest.
Speaker 1: They played the Thursday before and here again open, which
Speaker 1: you know they did have a tough travel coming home
Speaker 1: from England, but still, you know, a week off. Now
Speaker 1: Green Bay is going to be on short rest, you know.
Speaker 1: And it is a new coaching staff in green Bay,
Speaker 1: although that you know, it's kind of a veteran team. Um.
Speaker 1: I think there's a good spot for the Raiders myself.
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna open six and a half. Um, you know,
Speaker 1: I think seven would be an automatic take was off there. Bet.
Speaker 1: You know there's no way it's going to above the seven.
Speaker 1: I can tell you that. I don't think anyway. Let's
Speaker 1: green Bay wins by like forty tonight, you know, but
Speaker 1: I think six and a half's the right number here. Yep,
Speaker 1: that's what I had. Let's do one more. Jacksonville at Cincinnati,
Speaker 1: Jacksonville Cincinnata, UM Jacksonville losing to New Orleans yesterday. New
Speaker 1: Orleans wins at thirteen to six in a slug fest.
Speaker 1: Gardner Minshoe comes back down to Earth fourteen of twenty
Speaker 1: nine for one sixty three no touchdowns, one pick uh
Speaker 1: and Saints limited the Jaguars to a season low two
Speaker 1: hundred twenty six yards um. When you factor in all
Speaker 1: the sacks and stuff, it's one hundred fifty one total yards,
Speaker 1: is what I have here. Marshawn Lattimore shadowed DJ Shark
Speaker 1: got safety help. Chark manages three receptions for forty three
Speaker 1: yards against that coverage. Jalen Ramsey was inactive for the
Speaker 1: third consecutive week because of the quote unquote back injury.
Speaker 1: He was ruled out three days after owner who shot
Speaker 1: khan Uh said he expected Ramsey to play against the Saints.
Speaker 1: And then there's Cincinnati. Cincinnati is oh and six. Case
Speaker 1: you missed that, they got spotted a touchdown yesterday when
Speaker 1: Brandon Wilson took the opening kickoff ninety two yards for
Speaker 1: a score against Baltimore. So with seven nothing, Bengals out
Speaker 1: of the shoot the rest of the way, Ravens got
Speaker 1: him by the score of twenty three to ten for
Speaker 1: twenty three to seventeen final. Bengals remained in search of
Speaker 1: their first win under Zach Taylor. Andy Dalton thirty five.
Speaker 1: He did score on a two yard run with one left,
Speaker 1: but Cincinnati failed to produce an offensive touchdown. Listen to
Speaker 1: this now. They failed to produce an offensive touchdown over
Speaker 1: the first three quarters in a third consecutive game. So
Speaker 1: no touchdowns for the Bengals the first three quarters the
Speaker 1: last three games. That is not good. I'm told. Baltimore
Speaker 1: with a two hundred and twelve to six advantage in
Speaker 1: yardage and an eleven oh margin in first downs during
Speaker 1: the first quarter, oh my god, to twelve to six
Speaker 1: and eleven and nothing in first downs. That's the first
Speaker 1: quarter yesterday. So don't let the smooth taste fool you
Speaker 1: about that. That score that was a bit cosmetic. Uh
Speaker 1: So Jacksonville's at Cincinnati, you said, is that since yes,
Speaker 1: Jacksonville minus, it's gonna be more than three and less
Speaker 1: than seven. I'll say minus five and a half. Jacksonville
Speaker 1: on the road, you're a bit high. It's three with
Speaker 1: juice on the favorite. I do see one three and
Speaker 1: a half. How is that only three? Yeah? You know,
Speaker 1: I mean listen Jacksonville and I know we've got the
Speaker 1: Gardner minshew. Uh you know fan club out there. You
Speaker 1: know he's coming back to earth a little bit, you know. Um,
Speaker 1: I don't know. I don't have a lot of faith
Speaker 1: in Jacksonville and Cincinnati of course is horrible. And you
Speaker 1: talked about a coach who's just the way out of
Speaker 1: his league at some point. This Zack Taylor, he look real,
Speaker 1: does Yeah? I think that. I think the Brown family
Speaker 1: just tried to get it was the cheapest guy we
Speaker 1: could get on here that fall in the grenade for us.
Speaker 1: So I think they got Zack there, and that's really
Speaker 1: what I believe. I honestly do believe that he's one
Speaker 1: of the cheapest owners in the league. Um, and I'm
Speaker 1: tempted to open this three, but I think I'm gonna
Speaker 1: go with three and a half. Wise guys will probably
Speaker 1: jump in and take it, you know, But I just
Speaker 1: don't see anybody if we were at three, I don't
Speaker 1: see anybody taking Cincinnati plus the three. Listen. Yes, I'm
Speaker 1: in a couple of contests around town, so I'm not
Speaker 1: betting out of my pocket. But I did have Cincinnati
Speaker 1: and almost all of them, and I know it was
Speaker 1: very lucky to win that. You know, I took eleven
Speaker 1: half to all whatever it was. It was very lucky
Speaker 1: to win it. I understand that. But you can't kind
Speaker 1: of luck all the time, Certainly not with only like
Speaker 1: a three point margin. So I think I'm gonna open
Speaker 1: three and a half here. And like I said, if
Speaker 1: I opened three, I know they're gonna flood me on Cincinnati.
Speaker 1: They want to take the three and a half. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna let him do it and we'll see where we
Speaker 1: go from that. So they're probably take it. Sincinnati, I
Speaker 1: believes won three games against the spread on the road.
Speaker 1: I am shocked that this is only I'm shocked and
Speaker 1: this is only three. This is the first time I
Speaker 1: really love because I'm not I haven't been a gardener
Speaker 1: Minshew guy, but I think they're far better football team
Speaker 1: than the Bengals are interesting. All right, we'll come back.
Speaker 1: I have a baseball pick on today's uh NLCS Game three.
Speaker 1: We'll see if Parls has a pick as well. We'll
Speaker 1: come back and we'll resume guessing lines Week seven in
Speaker 1: the NFL right here on Visa. Support for today's show
Speaker 1: has always comes from book maker dot eu and industry
Speaker 1: leader for close to thirty years now, where pro players
Speaker 1: consider them a must because their first to post odds,
Speaker 1: take the highest limits and pride themselves on never having
Speaker 1: kicked out a winning player. I must sound like a
Speaker 1: broken record. By now I understand, but that is the
Speaker 1: truth all of especially that last part, so key never
Speaker 1: having kicked out a winning player the rarest of commodities.
Speaker 1: Bookmaker remains a hig volume sports book best suited for
Speaker 1: the sophisticated player who understands sports betting, but also caters
Speaker 1: to large recreational players. Perhaps that fits your bill and
Speaker 1: their motto as always remains where the lines originate, because
Speaker 1: chances are the sports book at which you've been betting
Speaker 1: follows their lines, almost a guarantee on that. Right now,
Speaker 1: the offer remains if you visit Bookmaker dot eu slash
Speaker 1: gill that's Bookmakers dot E slash g I l L,
Speaker 1: you can claim an exclusive welcome bonus of up to
Speaker 1: three hundred dollars. That's Bookmaker dot eu s slash gill.
Speaker 1: To join and claim your welcome bonus of up to
Speaker 1: three hundred dollars right now. It's the place to be.
Speaker 1: I wouldn't bet without it, Bookmaker dot eu slash gill.
Speaker 1: It's a numbers game with your host kill Alexander. Want
Speaker 1: to believe in analytics. It is our t of a
Speaker 1: numbers game right here. Visa the Vegas stats that Information
Speaker 1: Network Serious except Channel to a four Visa dot Com,
Speaker 1: the v SEN app, Phobos Laying Game plus Get Alexander.
Speaker 1: It's all brought you by the bet MGM app, where
Speaker 1: first time players can make the first bet completely risk
Speaker 1: free up to five hundred United States dollars and the
Speaker 1: same guys to bring you Atlantic City's premier hotel and
Speaker 1: casino borg Gotta We'll be with you all season long
Speaker 1: with a wide variety of betting options, an easy deposit
Speaker 1: and withdrawal methods. Just download the app, use bonus code
Speaker 1: VISA in five hundred. It's sign up to get your
Speaker 1: five hundred dollar risk free bet. That's bonus code vs
Speaker 1: I N five hundred. To place your first bet MGM
Speaker 1: wager risk free. You can sign of benywhere, but you
Speaker 1: gotta be in the state of New Jersey to place
Speaker 1: a bet. Bet en uh bet MGM. It's how you
Speaker 1: play the game. Download the app today. Gotta be twenty
Speaker 1: one or older. New Jersey only. Restrictions supply gambling problem
Speaker 1: called one gambler. That's the bet m g M app.
Speaker 1: Um so much wackiness. Also yesterday in the NFL, did
Speaker 1: you Jeff, did you buy any chance? Were you watching
Speaker 1: the Chiefs Texans game yesterday. Second quarter Pro football talk
Speaker 1: is just in a whole just did a whole piece
Speaker 1: about this, but we're talking about squirrelly officiating. Yesterday, the
Speaker 1: Chiefs are playing the Texans of the second quarter, and
Speaker 1: do you remember there was the play where Mahomes threw
Speaker 1: it into the end zone. There's an incomplete, incomplete pass,
Speaker 1: but a flag was thrown indicating um defensive p I.
Speaker 1: And then all of a sudden, so then the ball
Speaker 1: gets advanced. The Chiefs are about to run their play
Speaker 1: where it's properly spotted if in fact it was a
Speaker 1: p I. All of a sudden, whistles blow. All of
Speaker 1: the referees get together. It appears that one of the
Speaker 1: referees is holding his finger on his ear, meaning or
Speaker 1: at least indicating that he's trying to hear somebody talking
Speaker 1: to him better, whether that was in New York City,
Speaker 1: someone in a booth somewhere, whatever, And the net result
Speaker 1: of it is that the referees end up picking up
Speaker 1: the flag. Now, the explanation was clunky, but the explanation
Speaker 1: was that the call was on the receiver away from
Speaker 1: the ball. Travis Kelsey and so therefore, because the ball
Speaker 1: would have been uncatchable to him, there was no flag
Speaker 1: or there shouldn't have been a flag, But in fact,
Speaker 1: replay shows that it should have been a defensive hold
Speaker 1: in that situation, that Mahomes still had the ball, and
Speaker 1: that the chief should have still been the beneficiary of that.
Speaker 1: The real squirreliness of that is, no one should be
Speaker 1: talking to anybody per NFL rules, right, That's a judgment
Speaker 1: called by referees on the field. The problem is it
Speaker 1: looks like they were getting advice from somebody else and
Speaker 1: that was a huge game changing call in that game.
Speaker 1: So that was just one of many very sort of
Speaker 1: uh interesting things that went on in the league. And
Speaker 1: you know, for those you may have some people in
Speaker 1: your family or whatever saying so the NFL isis so
Speaker 1: hard to uh so to watch. And number one reason
Speaker 1: they give is the the very strange flag fest that
Speaker 1: all of these games seemed to degenerate into. And that
Speaker 1: was just another weird one yesterday. But um uh Todd
Speaker 1: Wishneppers on the show Wednesdays he believes he said, he said,
Speaker 1: he believes he saw the worst call in the history
Speaker 1: of the NFL yesterday. If you were watching the Falcons
Speaker 1: Cardinals game. There was a kick catch interference called in
Speaker 1: the Falcons game. The Falcons punted, it was a twenty
Speaker 1: seven seven game, and they called interference on the catch
Speaker 1: and there was no one from the kicking team even
Speaker 1: close to the returner. The ball hits the returner's leg
Speaker 1: should have been a live ball. I believe Atlanta recovered
Speaker 1: and they called interference and there was no one around,
Speaker 1: Like there's so many of these weird things where you're like,
Speaker 1: what has happened? And the end the end of the
Speaker 1: Cleveland Seattle game was odd. With the flag fest. For
Speaker 1: goodness sake, your Jets Cowboys game, Jeff with a six
Speaker 1: consecutive plays with penalties, some of which were like phantom
Speaker 1: calls that didn't even exist. Just a bizarre day with
Speaker 1: with refereeing in the NFL. So again in a while,
Speaker 1: from the betting perspective, as we're betting these, it's hard enough,
Speaker 1: it's hard enough to get these right. Then you have
Speaker 1: to go through the layer of of this, of this
Speaker 1: or or deal that is flags now, some of which
Speaker 1: doesn't make any sense whatsoever. Let's before we get back
Speaker 1: to Christy, let's put up these two tweets if we could.
Speaker 1: This is from rich Eisen yesterday. Again, these are just
Speaker 1: putting things in perspective in the National Football Leage, all
Speaker 1: under the guise of let's just give this context from
Speaker 1: rich Eisen, just to let you know how our perception
Speaker 1: changes so very quickly. Uh, The once upon a time
Speaker 1: four and O chiefs and three and O rams and
Speaker 1: three and oh cowboys are all a combined o and eight.
Speaker 1: Since then, Chiefs, rams and cowboys four and oh three
Speaker 1: and oh three and oh oh and eight since then?
Speaker 1: And then this one right here, which will just warm
Speaker 1: cowboys fans hearts or cowboys betters hearts. This is from
Speaker 1: Bobby Belt at Bobby Belt t X. NFL teams are
Speaker 1: ninety and one since when they win time of possession,
Speaker 1: total yards, turnovers, pick up twenty five first downs, and
Speaker 1: convert at least ten or more third down attempts. Dallas
Speaker 1: has lost to the Jets on Sundays, the one loss
Speaker 1: ninety and one since Good Lord, And with all that said,
Speaker 1: let's guess some more lines and see if we can't
Speaker 1: extract some value. Let's bring back in my mission book
Speaker 1: Chrisie Andrews that he like that Chris all of that. Wow, Wow,
Speaker 1: I have a lot of digest right there. But you know,
Speaker 1: we were watching that. I was, you know, like I said,
Speaker 1: I have one TV in my apartment here. Uh started
Speaker 1: watching Red Zone and they were featuring quite a bit
Speaker 1: of the Dallas Jets game, and that was really unwatchable
Speaker 1: with you know, six straight penalties. It was just you know, ridiculous.
Speaker 1: You know, there's one play in a row with no flag.
Speaker 1: I mean, they're all like this, it's unreal. But now
Speaker 1: that's the NFL anymore, and it really has come unwatchable
Speaker 1: in a lot of ways. It's some horrible calls non calls,
Speaker 1: and you know, they've better fixed this problem. I think
Speaker 1: there's there's there's just too many rules, just too many,
Speaker 1: too many rules that we didn't even get it. We
Speaker 1: didn't even get into the challenges of plays and non plays.
Speaker 1: That's a whole another thing, which is just no one.
Speaker 1: You know, I said it, Uh, I was gonna ask
Speaker 1: Lombardi last week, I think I asked. I said the
Speaker 1: next day, what was I going to ask Lombardi? Which
Speaker 1: is with these replay challenges, you're you almost no, You're
Speaker 1: never gonna have it go your way. It's almost like
Speaker 1: someone taking a coach in the NBA taking a tech
Speaker 1: just to you know, make a statement to a referee
Speaker 1: so hopefully you get a subsequent call. It's like it's
Speaker 1: just a whole different thing. Now, all right, we'll move on.
Speaker 1: What's next. We got the Rams at the Fountons. All right.
Speaker 1: We have touched on these two teams a little bit,
Speaker 1: maybe not the Rams. The Rams game against the Niners
Speaker 1: is probably my favorite game to watch. Yesterday, the Rams
Speaker 1: on their very first possession, they ran the ball in
Speaker 1: their first seven consecutive of plays, they went sixty five yards,
Speaker 1: went right through the Niners defense, touchdown Rams. After that drive,
Speaker 1: the next seven Rams drives combined for forty eight net yards.
Speaker 1: That's how much the Niners said, you know what, that's it.
Speaker 1: They're not getting a damn thing after this. In fact,
Speaker 1: the Rams uh probably the moment of the game. Rams
Speaker 1: reached the San Francisco one yard line on third down
Speaker 1: shortly before halftime. Niner smothered two straight running plays up
Speaker 1: the middle. Um. Rams are now three and three, the
Speaker 1: Niners remain undefeated. A changing of the guard perhaps in
Speaker 1: the NFC West I already told people, I said, look,
Speaker 1: I have before the season pre flop NFC West futures
Speaker 1: on the Niners at plus three. I may add NFC
Speaker 1: in Super Bowl futures on the Niners. That's how good
Speaker 1: I think they are. The Rams are on their first
Speaker 1: three game losing streak of Sean mcveigh's two and a
Speaker 1: half year tenure. And Jared Goff, who I have been
Speaker 1: saying now for a couple of years. I thought the
Speaker 1: Rams would make him the first example of the NFL
Speaker 1: of a quarterback that led a team to a Super
Speaker 1: Bowl who was just going to recycle him after his
Speaker 1: rookie contract. Instead, the Rams decided, Nope, We're gonna give
Speaker 1: him a hundred thirty four million dollars, a hundred ten
Speaker 1: of which is guaranteed. Yesterday, Golf and the offensive line
Speaker 1: did him no favors. Let me state that, but Jared
Speaker 1: Goff was thirteen of twenty four for seventy eight yards,
Speaker 1: a career low seventy eight yards, no touchdowns, no picks.
Speaker 1: He was sacked four times. The Rams did not manage
Speaker 1: a completion longer than twelve yards the entire game. The
Speaker 1: they were out first down if you will, twenty two
Speaker 1: to ten. They were over for nine on third downs.
Speaker 1: They were over four on fourth downs, hundred sixty five
Speaker 1: total yards of of offense. They were out possessed thirty
Speaker 1: eight minutes and fifty two secondsight. Todd Gurley sat out
Speaker 1: with the bruise thigh mrs first game of the season.
Speaker 1: By the way, CLAYT Matthews their sacked leader a keep
Speaker 1: to lead. Both of them sat out on defense as well.
Speaker 1: UM but over nine on third, over four on fourth.
Speaker 1: I in gamed the Niners yesterday when they were up
Speaker 1: seventeen to seven. I in game them at minus six
Speaker 1: and a half, and when they went up twenty to seven,
Speaker 1: they only got the field goal, not the touchdown. I
Speaker 1: was like, oh, I can get back doored here. And
Speaker 1: the Rams had multiple opportunities and they just could not
Speaker 1: matriculate down the field. The Niners just had him smothered.
Speaker 1: Every time Atlanta, we talked about UM against the Cardinal
Speaker 1: excuse me against the Cardinals, yes, losing that game. UM
Speaker 1: on a Matt Bryant extra point attempt near the end
Speaker 1: of the fourth quarter, in fact, one fifty three left,
Speaker 1: he hooked it. He had missed. Matt Bryant just three
Speaker 1: extra points over the past eleven seasons before. He missed
Speaker 1: that one. Uh. Falcons erased the seventeen point deficit in
Speaker 1: the second half, but lose on that. They've lost four
Speaker 1: straight games. By the way, for those who you know,
Speaker 1: we talked about teams that stay on the road, the
Speaker 1: Falcons had stayed on the road. They went straight to
Speaker 1: Phoenix UM after their game last week, so they ever
Speaker 1: went back to Atlanta didn't end up helping in the end.
Speaker 1: Matt Ryan filling up the statue thirty of thirty six,
Speaker 1: three fifty six, four touchdowns, no picks Hooper, the Cardinals
Speaker 1: still getting crushed by tight ends. Hooper was the big
Speaker 1: target eight for one seventeen a touchdown. Julio Jones eight
Speaker 1: for one oh eight. Rams will be favored. UM, this
Speaker 1: is sort of like a Chiefs Broncos situation is some degree,
Speaker 1: although the Falcons aren't really winning, so maybe not quite
Speaker 1: like that. I'll say the Rams minus four and a
Speaker 1: half on the road at Atlanta, you are high. It's three.
Speaker 1: I see some three months twenty, but three is where
Speaker 1: I'm gonna start at. Three couple things, you know. First
Speaker 1: of all, we got steamed yesterday on the s on
Speaker 1: San Francisco. That was one of our worst games, um
Speaker 1: from the wise est the Rams, And as I look
Speaker 1: back on it, I really think it was a bet
Speaker 1: on San Francisco and the bet against their Rams. And
Speaker 1: I know what you're talking about with Jared Goff, and
Speaker 1: you know you want to tell you I kind of
Speaker 1: to hang my head and shame here a little bit.
Speaker 1: I was a little slow to get on that anti
Speaker 1: goof train, but I guess I'm not the only one.
Speaker 1: At least I need to gi him a hundred twenty
Speaker 1: million dollars. And then between Goff and Gurley, and there's
Speaker 1: something wrong with Gurley. How permanent is I don't know
Speaker 1: that they have so much money invested in those two guys.
Speaker 1: I'm not sure what the future portens for the Ramps.
Speaker 1: I don't think it's all that good. Jared Goff. You know,
Speaker 1: as QBR was yesterday one point one one point that
Speaker 1: is absolutely atrocious, you know, going I threw away my
Speaker 1: notes from last week. I think somebody had like a
Speaker 1: zero point something QBR, which I said was the worst
Speaker 1: I've ever seen. So I can't remember who that was
Speaker 1: right now, but at one point one it's pretty darn bad.
Speaker 1: Parley informs me that it was Luke Falk who had
Speaker 1: a zero point nine. Okay, but good old party. He's
Speaker 1: all right anyway. Uh, you know, Atlanta is not that bad,
Speaker 1: you know. I mean they've lost a couple of close
Speaker 1: one that they've thrown in some real clinkers to no
Speaker 1: doubt about it. But uh, you know, I think anything
Speaker 1: over three has to be a take. So you and
Speaker 1: I are going to respectfully disagree here because I think
Speaker 1: the three is playing in this game, and like I said,
Speaker 1: I look like by the way, they sneamed Atlanta pretty
Speaker 1: good yesterday against the Cardinals. That was one of our
Speaker 1: really good games. But that that came from some guys
Speaker 1: I really respect who thought that Atlanta was the right
Speaker 1: side and a lot came in on them. So once again,
Speaker 1: you had money against the Rams, you had money for Atlanta.
Speaker 1: You have to kind of respect that a little bit.
Speaker 1: And listen, Atlanta lost. I know it could have been
Speaker 1: a kind of a fluke. They may have won that
Speaker 1: game at overtime, who knows, But I think I have
Speaker 1: to respect that move and the reasoning behind it, and
Speaker 1: as a result, I'm gonna open his three. I think
Speaker 1: that's plenty. I really do, you know, it's very interesting.
Speaker 1: I'm just trying to sort of articulate my reactions to these,
Speaker 1: because again I've I've focused on the good teams are
Speaker 1: are are way better than the bad teams are. Right,
Speaker 1: the chasm between the halves and the have nots continues
Speaker 1: to widen, and so on many of these guesses where
Speaker 1: I'm off, you would think I would be outraged, and
Speaker 1: I'd be like, oh my god, it's only three, but
Speaker 1: yet I'm not right. So the only one that's sort
Speaker 1: of outraged me was Jacksonville. I think Jacksonville is too low.
Speaker 1: I I would bet Jacksonville uh in their game and
Speaker 1: the one that we uh that we talked about earlier,
Speaker 1: Jacksonville is at Cincinnati. But like for this one, I
Speaker 1: were a four and a half and you have three.
Speaker 1: It's sort of like my reaction to the Buffalo Miami
Speaker 1: thing where you had seventeen and I said fourteen. I'm like, yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not outraged because and Jeff Jeff said
Speaker 1: this on the break too, it's not only the haves
Speaker 1: and the have nots. Do you ever remember a softer
Speaker 1: middle than this end than this NFL? Right, Like, these
Speaker 1: teams are just not good so I don't know, like
Speaker 1: four and a half three, I don't know what Rams
Speaker 1: are showing up. I don't know what Falcons are showing up.
Speaker 1: You know, did the Falcons really lose that game? Based
Speaker 1: on we talked about the calls that went the Cardinals
Speaker 1: way and the calls that went against the Falcons. There
Speaker 1: was a few of them in that game. So it's
Speaker 1: like you don't even know what you're watching. Ultimately, Um,
Speaker 1: so I'm not outraged by it. And three okay, so
Speaker 1: be it. Yeah, I guess Rams minus three at Atlanta
Speaker 1: just a very It's so much harder to assess these teams,
Speaker 1: I think this year than ever before, given all the factors.
Speaker 1: Let's do one more. Okay, another game here is I
Speaker 1: think I found this very interesting. San Francisco at Washington. Well,
Speaker 1: it's a Redskins game. I think I'll be able to
Speaker 1: get this bit closer. Uh. San Francisco's five and oh
Speaker 1: the Redskins are one in five, only undefeated team in
Speaker 1: the NFC. San Francisco forty Niners Jimmy Garoppolo yesterday and
Speaker 1: that went against the Rams, which she just talked about,
Speaker 1: thirty three for two, forty three no touchdowns, one pick.
Speaker 1: Kittle was his favorite target eight for one oh three.
Speaker 1: Niners did not score a touchdown in the final twenty
Speaker 1: seven minutes of this game, but it's their fourth five
Speaker 1: and oh start in franchise history, their first since Garoppolo
Speaker 1: had a fun bull return to the San Francisco thirty
Speaker 1: six with eight forty left. But as I mentioned, the Rams,
Speaker 1: they turned it over on downs and there were so
Speaker 1: many of these occasions where the Rams had they had
Speaker 1: opportunity after opportunity, and the Niners defense wouldn't have in
Speaker 1: any of it. Uh. Kyle Shanahan quote after that the
Speaker 1: Garoppolo fumble in the stop, I had a feeling that
Speaker 1: if we just don't turn it over, we'll win this game.
Speaker 1: I haven't had that feeling very much in my career,
Speaker 1: and the defense definitely gave it to me the whole game.
Speaker 1: That's a big statement from Kyle Shanahan. I think people
Speaker 1: should take note that's a coach who has rarely had
Speaker 1: that feeling of having a good defense. He's an offensive guru,
Speaker 1: but he's never had a great defense along whether he's
Speaker 1: coordinated in d C or Atlanta, any stop along the way.
Speaker 1: But now he feels that he does, and he's right.
Speaker 1: By the way, the Niners played that game without both
Speaker 1: of their starting offensive tackles, Mike McGlinchey and Joe Staley,
Speaker 1: and they still got it done. Skins, as we talked about,
Speaker 1: they beat the Dolphins. UH Adrian Peterson carries a hundred
Speaker 1: eighteen yards. That's something more than double this season rushing total.
Speaker 1: They did find someone in Terry McLaurin from Ohio State
Speaker 1: four catches a hundred yards, two touchdowns, but the Skins
Speaker 1: were two of eleven on third downs and UH Bill Callaghan,
Speaker 1: interim coach, has decided that case Keenum will remain his starter.
Speaker 1: So this will be Case Keenum Niners minus ten at
Speaker 1: d C. Chris, tell me I'm wrong, No, you got it.
Speaker 1: It's had Bingo. That's exactly it. You know. By the way,
Speaker 1: let's let's back up a second. You're talking about Cincinnati
Speaker 1: covering on the road, and one of the things that
Speaker 1: I was gonna interject is you went to these road teams,
Speaker 1: especially like the big Dogs, you're getting a lot more
Speaker 1: points than you really deserved. Because we talked about home
Speaker 1: field advantage of it was there's not much about homefield
Speaker 1: advantage in Washington nothing zero game. Yeah, yeah, I mean,
Speaker 1: I'm not sure hands a little cheaper or not. You know,
Speaker 1: I think I'm a feeling it might be because what
Speaker 1: would in San Francisco doesn't have a great homeport a VANDID,
Speaker 1: you know, but it might be a little better than
Speaker 1: it has been in the past, because I think that crowd.
Speaker 1: There's a lot of San Franciscans that wound up in
Speaker 1: l A yesterday. Um, a lot of nine are fans,
Speaker 1: I should say. You know, so, I don't know. I
Speaker 1: I'm gonna open this tent, but I can see this
Speaker 1: going higher. I gotta tell you, I'm very impressed with
Speaker 1: San Francisco. I just thought my questions about Garoppolo. But
Speaker 1: I think there's a really well coached team, and I
Speaker 1: think their defense is really really good at coming together strongly.
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna open ten. I would not be surprised
Speaker 1: if this one goes up. I at this point, I
Speaker 1: kind of like San Francisco a little bit. I know
Speaker 1: it's really dangerous land points on the road or land
Speaker 1: points almost anywhere in the NFL, but uh, I at
Speaker 1: this point in time, there's no way I have Washington.
Speaker 1: Let me put it that one. What's what's so interesting
Speaker 1: for me is with my plus three on the Niners
Speaker 1: two in the NFC West, I would feel so coasty
Speaker 1: about this if most underrated, criminally underrated player in the
Speaker 1: history of the NFL, Russell Wilson wasn't in the same
Speaker 1: division doing his thing. We'll get to a Seattle game. Uh,
Speaker 1: coming up, We'll come back. We'll do more of these.
Speaker 1: How many more games do we have to have? We
Speaker 1: finished all the morning games? Chris, Uh, yeah, we next game,
Speaker 1: we'll go to the afternoon. Okay, so we have you
Speaker 1: said earlier. We have three afternoon games. We have the
Speaker 1: two primetime games. We will do those next. Right here
Speaker 1: Guessing Lines Week seven with Chris Andrews on a numbers
Speaker 1: game at Visa. Keep it right here for more of
Speaker 1: a numbers game with Jill Alexander. In fact, you don't
Speaker 1: have to keep it right here. You are here, by
Speaker 1: the way, you can wake up with the report on
Speaker 1: all the key line movements and how the pros are
Speaker 1: betting the day's top games. Sign him now for Visa's
Speaker 1: free daily news letter to get an email every morning
Speaker 1: with news and betting resources, plus our programming highlights. It's
Speaker 1: the best way to learn more about sports betting and
Speaker 1: how Visan can help you. Let's go to Visa dot
Speaker 1: com slash newsletter. That is Visa dot com slash newsletter.
Speaker 1: Bet Russell Wilson win the m v P last we
Speaker 1: Jeff five to one over at Caesar's. How is he
Speaker 1: not the favorite? Come on? Had to bet five to
Speaker 1: one thoughts? You're looking right at me? Oh, I I
Speaker 1: like it? Who at this at this point it's in
Speaker 1: a Mahomes anymore. Well, Mahomes is still still a top
Speaker 1: three candidate. I would see Wilson, Mahomes and Gil This
Speaker 1: past week was the time to to buy stock on
Speaker 1: DeShawn Watson because that is about to go through the roof.
Speaker 1: The DeShawn Watson thing is so clear. You keep him upright,
Speaker 1: They they're great as soon as I mean, because their
Speaker 1: sacks come in droves. Right. There was that streak of
Speaker 1: eight straight games where he got sacked four straight times.
Speaker 1: Then I think he got sacked twice or zero. That
Speaker 1: there was another big game we got sacked six times.
Speaker 1: But these last couple of games he's been clean. That
Speaker 1: that does it all. It's amazing how simply can be
Speaker 1: sometimes you know what tickets are pretty much heading towards
Speaker 1: worthless at this point. Gil that the the DAK Prescott
Speaker 1: UH tickets that were way overvalued after we three. How
Speaker 1: do you think the DAK Prescott contract negotiations are going
Speaker 1: right now? Not great for DAK Cowboys. How fraudulent are they? Right? Still? Giants, Redskins, Dolphins?
Speaker 1: Those are the three wins three. Like I said after
Speaker 1: Philadelphia Dallas game, one of those teams gonna be is
Speaker 1: gonna be sub five barring a tie. And the Giants
Speaker 1: are one back and the Skins are two back. Yes, baby,
Speaker 1: let's go. Let's bringing Chrissy Andrews just so I can
Speaker 1: stop my silliness. Chris Andrews, who is the South Point
Speaker 1: Hotel casino sports book director, coming to us from Los Angeles. Chris,
Speaker 1: let's do some afternoon games. Okay, first afternoon game, Chargers
Speaker 1: at Tennessee. What a terrible game? Two and four Chargers
Speaker 1: games two afternoon games are five, but this one's horrible.
Speaker 1: Let me just start with the spread. I would imagine
Speaker 1: this is Tennessee minus three. It's too two and four
Speaker 1: teams playing each other. We talked about Tennessee Mariota bench
Speaker 1: yesterday after going seven of eighteen against Denver for sixty
Speaker 1: three yards. Seven for eighteen for sixty three yards, no touchdowns,
Speaker 1: two picks. He was sacked three times. His passer rating
Speaker 1: out of one fifty eight point three. I'm curious if
Speaker 1: you have his QBR, but his passer rating out of
Speaker 1: one fifty eight point three was nine point five. That's
Speaker 1: not his QBR, that's his passer rating. So he was
Speaker 1: benched after Justin Simmons picked him off early in the
Speaker 1: third quarter, led to the game's only touchdown, two yard
Speaker 1: run by Philip Lindsay that gave it. That gave the
Speaker 1: Broncos a thirteen to nothing lead. By the way, it
Speaker 1: also snapped Mariota's uh streak about two hundred and six
Speaker 1: passes without being picked off, by the way, that was
Speaker 1: my whole handicap in that game was if there was
Speaker 1: ever a characteristic that fits this game, it's Mariota doesn't
Speaker 1: turn the ball over, and then he goes in and
Speaker 1: does that um and then it was Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill
Speaker 1: was thirteen of sixteen, no touchdowns, one pick, but he
Speaker 1: was sacked four times too. So as we talked about
Speaker 1: seven sacks with the Broncos. The Titans were two of
Speaker 1: fourteen on third down total yards thirty nine rushing yards. Um. Yeah,
Speaker 1: there were seventeen punts in that Broncos Titans game. First
Speaker 1: half of that game featured more flags ten and punts
Speaker 1: eleven than points six. So that's fun. And then there's
Speaker 1: the Chargers last night. You know, at the end cosmetically
Speaker 1: seventeen loss for the Chargers at home, but let's be honest.
Speaker 1: This was twenty four to nothing Steelers. And the Steelers
Speaker 1: last I check, uh, had had Devlin Hodges as their
Speaker 1: starting quarterback, and um, this game was Philip Verson of
Speaker 1: Philip Rivers three hundred yards, two touchdowns, two picks, But
Speaker 1: let's face it, Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler thirteen combined
Speaker 1: carries for thirty two yards. Um, it was it was seven.
Speaker 1: It was fourteen to nothing with four thirty nine remaining
Speaker 1: in the first quarter, and then it was twenty one
Speaker 1: nothing with six thirty four remaining in the second. Devin
Speaker 1: Bush wreaking havoc, forcing a couple of turnovers there for
Speaker 1: the Steelers. Anyway, um My buddy e who you know,
Speaker 1: Chrissy most successful sports better? I know he asked this question,
Speaker 1: says ve Anthony Lynn got fired by the Chargers, would
Speaker 1: like a random Sun Belt team want to hire him?
Speaker 1: That was his comment about Anthony Lynn. This is bad
Speaker 1: and this game between the Charges in Tennessee is bad.
Speaker 1: I'll just say Tennessee minus three because I don't know
Speaker 1: what else to make it. Well, I think I kind
Speaker 1: of like your number better, but it's a tough one.
Speaker 1: It's Tennessee one. I see a couple of picks, uh,
Speaker 1: but why I think Rabel Rabel inherited a mess of Tennessee.
Speaker 1: Let's let's not pull any bones about it. By the way,
Speaker 1: you talked about the the q b R from Mariota,
Speaker 1: this time it was actually higher. That is, passer rating
Speaker 1: was nine point nine, which is still horrible. And panne
Speaker 1: Hill was even worse. He was seven point nine. So
Speaker 1: combined they were terrible, you know, and that you know,
Speaker 1: a lot mon of kudos to the Denver defense I
Speaker 1: think really forced a lot of that. But still, you know,
Speaker 1: Tennessee is just in a mess right now. But the
Speaker 1: Chargers same thing. I mean, they've been pulling chargery type
Speaker 1: things for a while. And we had a friend of ours,
Speaker 1: the Bear as texted us between the breaks here, I
Speaker 1: mean the Los Angeles Charges, asking anybody buddy about the
Speaker 1: l A, the Los Angeles, the who San Diego? You mean, Okay,
Speaker 1: there's no enthusiasm for this team whatsoever, that they should
Speaker 1: have never left San Diego. And I don't know the
Speaker 1: politics behind the stadium and all that other stuff. And
Speaker 1: you know, all these billionaires want to hand out from
Speaker 1: the city year at the stage or whoever. You know,
Speaker 1: God forbid they ever build anything on their own, you know.
Speaker 1: And but Tennessee right now, I think it's a little
Speaker 1: has a little bit better, has a little bit more
Speaker 1: warm for him, just because it's like the lower expectations.
Speaker 1: And uh, I'm gonna open one just because I see
Speaker 1: some picks around. But if it goes higher, I'm gonna
Speaker 1: go higher on this one. Because as bad as Tennessee is,
Speaker 1: as big a Messadarian the charges, I think even worse. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't want me. Yeah, that's why I
Speaker 1: just put in three. I figured it would be that.
Speaker 1: But you're telling me it's lower than that. Um. Yeah,
Speaker 1: And that stadium, that new stadium in l A. With
Speaker 1: the Chargers, as we just as we just talked about
Speaker 1: in the Rams who are strapped with the golf and
Speaker 1: the girly contracts. Wow, I mean that stadium looks beautiful,
Speaker 1: but what does the future hold. Um doesn't look good
Speaker 1: as we sit here today. Things change, for sure, not
Speaker 1: only from a week to week, but certainly for month
Speaker 1: to month. But right now, as we said, doesn't look
Speaker 1: like a wonderful thing. So Tennessee, you said in the
Speaker 1: end was what are you gonna put it up at?
Speaker 1: I'm gonna open Tennessee one? Okay, Tennessee one. What's the
Speaker 1: next one in the afternoon? Baltimore. Oh, that's a good game.
Speaker 1: There's your marquee matchup of the day. So yeah, Baltimore
Speaker 1: four and two, Seattle five and one. Lamar Jackson yesterday
Speaker 1: and that win against the Bengals twenty one of thirty
Speaker 1: three for two thirty six, no touchdowns, no picks. But
Speaker 1: then he went ahead and added nineteen carries for a
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty two yards and a touchdown on the ground.
Speaker 1: He becomes the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era
Speaker 1: to pass for at least two hundred yards rush for
Speaker 1: one fifty in a single game. And by the way,
Speaker 1: he uh sort of slowed down at the end. Michael
Speaker 1: Vick has the single game record of a hundred and
Speaker 1: seventy three yards rushing by a quarterback and again twenty
Speaker 1: one yard shy of that was Lamar Jackson, but Baltimore
Speaker 1: in that game against Cincinnati nine of fifteen on third downs.
Speaker 1: They won the yardage. I know it's against Cincinnati, but
Speaker 1: four nine seven to two, fifty to sixty nine to
Speaker 1: thirty three on the ground, thirty nine minutes and forty
Speaker 1: two seconds to nine eighteen in time of possession. They
Speaker 1: did have ten penalties for eighty one yards, but they
Speaker 1: retained sole possession of the first place in the a
Speaker 1: f C North. And then there is the Seattle Seahawks
Speaker 1: and the glory that is Russell Wilson. There are five
Speaker 1: and one Russell Wilson yesterday twenty three or thirty three
Speaker 1: for two ninety five two touchdowns note picks he ran
Speaker 1: for another. He has yet to throw an interception this season,
Speaker 1: yet to throw a pick this season. And to this point,
Speaker 1: let's face it, he's the best quarterback in the National
Speaker 1: Football League, top to bottom. I don't think there's any
Speaker 1: disputing that. I really don't Chris Carson touchdown. He had
Speaker 1: a touchdown run with three thirty left, Seahawks rallied for
Speaker 1: a thirty two to twenty eight win over the Browns,
Speaker 1: which is a whole another story. Seahawks at three and
Speaker 1: all on the road, first time they've done that in
Speaker 1: thirty nine years. They gave up touchdowns on Cleveland's first
Speaker 1: three possessions, put themselves in a huge hole in the end.
Speaker 1: Though four fifty four total yards of offense, they too
Speaker 1: had a lot of penalties ten for sixty five. If
Speaker 1: you want to say something bad about them, and they
Speaker 1: did lose, will dis lee. They're tight end in the
Speaker 1: first half with what appears to be an achilles injury,
Speaker 1: so that's not good. But all that said, I'll say
Speaker 1: this game is in Seattle. I'll say it's Seattle minus
Speaker 1: four and a half. Uh here, a little high. I
Speaker 1: see mostly three and a half. I see a couple
Speaker 1: of fours. Really like the three and a half a
Speaker 1: lot better. As much as I love Wilson and like Seattle,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna give this Baltimore team too many points, you know,
Speaker 1: And right now, this total, I think a little surprising
Speaker 1: how high it is. Looking at mostly fifty and a
Speaker 1: half for the total A shade high, But I'm not
Speaker 1: I'm not much of a total guy, really not. But
Speaker 1: I'm gonna open three and a half just because there's
Speaker 1: some fours out there. But UM, telling you the truth,
Speaker 1: this game went the three. I think I go to
Speaker 1: three with it. I think it's gonna be a very good,
Speaker 1: close type game. And right now I I see Baltimore
Speaker 1: as being the side I would like certainly plus the four.
Speaker 1: These are, without question, barring catastrophe injuries, these are playoff
Speaker 1: teams right here. Baltimore at Seattle. Uh this, yeah, this
Speaker 1: should be a good football game at Seattle. So three
Speaker 1: and a half is what you're opening that. But you
Speaker 1: say you go to three if it goes to three. UM,
Speaker 1: A little high on the Seahawks. Last one in the afternoon,
Speaker 1: another good game. New Orleans at Chicago. New Orleans at Chicago.
Speaker 1: New Orleans is five and one. Some people will consider
Speaker 1: New Orleans the cream of the NFC. Teddy Bridgewater, Um,
Speaker 1: what is he four and oh? Now without Drew Brees?
Speaker 1: Teddy Bridgewater four oh twenty four or thirty six for
Speaker 1: two forty one touchdown note picks I found Jared Cook.
Speaker 1: We mentioned this earlier. Four yard touchdown early in the
Speaker 1: fourth quarter was the only touchdown of that game. New
Speaker 1: Orleans beating Jacksonville thirteen to six put the Saints ahead
Speaker 1: for good. And then the Chicago Chicago's got the extra
Speaker 1: rest because they're coming back from London after they got
Speaker 1: beat by the Raiders. So they're three and two. Orleans
Speaker 1: is five and one. Um, let me just compare this
Speaker 1: to what we just saw. New Orleans was at Jacksonville
Speaker 1: and New Orleans ended up as the dog in that game,
Speaker 1: corrector did they end up as the favorite? They were
Speaker 1: the dog the whole time. So, and that was the
Speaker 1: one that I thought New Orleans. Yeah, and I thought
Speaker 1: New Orleans should be favored. So given what I we
Speaker 1: opened pardon me ahead. We had a little delay on
Speaker 1: the phone. I don't mean to be interrupted anyway, we
Speaker 1: opened New Orleans one, and all the money came in
Speaker 1: on Jacksonville. So they did wind up the favorite. That fact.
Speaker 1: Something we went to three on this game. We might have,
Speaker 1: but we closed the game two and a half. That
Speaker 1: was definitely one of the good games for us, you know.
Speaker 1: But you know a lot of people believe in Jacksonville
Speaker 1: and did not believe in New Orleans. Yeah, I was,
Speaker 1: and I was the opposite, and of course I didn't
Speaker 1: play it in circle. Yeah, well well done, Gil. But
Speaker 1: knowing that Chicago's got to be a favorite here too,
Speaker 1: then right, based on that, and it's not like New
Speaker 1: Orleans rolled past Jacksonville, so I would think it would
Speaker 1: be similar. I would say Chicago's gotta be a slight favorite.
Speaker 1: I'll say Chicago minus one and a half. You know,
Speaker 1: you're a little light. It's like three and a half.
Speaker 1: I even see a couple of fours. I like your
Speaker 1: way of thinking. I thought this game should have been
Speaker 1: a three. Uh, and not even that for the fact, yeah,
Speaker 1: that Chicago has the extra rest here, and let's be honest,
Speaker 1: I mean Teddy Bridgewater is four and oh for New Orleans,
Speaker 1: he's been a little lucky. Yeah, you know nothing, you know,
Speaker 1: And maybe maybe when Breeze comes back, they will be
Speaker 1: the best team in the NFC. I think that that's
Speaker 1: very viable, very possible. But uh, he's been a little lucky,
Speaker 1: you know. But Chicago, they're not exactly burning the league.
Speaker 1: And you talked about the uh, how about those people
Speaker 1: with Dak Prescott m VP tickets? How about the people
Speaker 1: with Mitch Robiskie tickets. They could you feeling no good
Speaker 1: right now? Even by the way, Yeah, yeah, there's a
Speaker 1: whole lot of them, it really is. Uh anyway, it's
Speaker 1: it's three and a half and four. I'm gonna open
Speaker 1: three and a half. But that's another one where if
Speaker 1: I saw this one of three, I'm going to go
Speaker 1: to three myself because I make I think New Orleans
Speaker 1: probably the right side you're getting any kind of points,
Speaker 1: and again we have a very low total, thirty and
Speaker 1: a half. Thirty nine is what I'm looking at, so
Speaker 1: I think points will be at a premium and I'd
Speaker 1: like to take them with New Orleans certainly anything over there. Jeff,
Speaker 1: what did you guess on this? I had a Chicago
Speaker 1: minus two? Yeah, right where I was. I hope people
Speaker 1: are playing this interactively, and I wonder if people are
Speaker 1: as incredulous with some of these are if they're just
Speaker 1: laughing at some of these, right. But I think both
Speaker 1: of the case in different circumstances. But this one is
Speaker 1: very interesting that it's that much in favor of the Bears. Again,
Speaker 1: extra rest for the Bears. Saints rolling and we think
Speaker 1: it's Teddy Bridgewater though, yes, that Teddy Bridgewater will be
Speaker 1: the quarterback. Um barring any news, unforeseen news, but we
Speaker 1: believe it's Bridgewater this week again, so it is. I'll
Speaker 1: go minus. It's over the three. What did you say?
Speaker 1: You're opening at minus three and a half? Three and
Speaker 1: a half, minus three and a half. All right, I
Speaker 1: had one and a half through the key number. We'll
Speaker 1: come back. We'll do the primetime games week seven for
Speaker 1: some interesting lines for sure, Jacksonville and New Orleans leaping
Speaker 1: off the page for me so far. We'll review them
Speaker 1: at the end. We'll do the two primetime games. Coming
Speaker 1: up on a Numbers game with Chris Andrews right here
Speaker 1: at Visa. Welcome back to a Numbers game with Gill Alexander.
Speaker 1: We are back on the numbers game right here at
Speaker 1: Visa tribute to the old Start US radio show. It's
Speaker 1: Gill Alexander. Chrissie Andrews is here from l A. That
Speaker 1: is my book from the south Point Hotel casino sports
Speaker 1: book desk, of course, is where he usually uh spends
Speaker 1: his days. He's the director of the south Point Sports
Speaker 1: Book and of course you can follow him on Twitter
Speaker 1: at Andrew's Sports. The name of the book then one day,
Speaker 1: then one day and you told a you told you
Speaker 1: give us a story time a couple of weeks back, Chrissie, H.
Speaker 1: Does that mean that there will be a second volume
Speaker 1: to this at some point? Well, that might be. I
Speaker 1: don't think I have quite enough story yet, but a
Speaker 1: lot of people reminding me of some of the stories
Speaker 1: that I didn't put in. Like I said, there was
Speaker 1: a reason I didn't put that one in. You and
Speaker 1: I talked about the year. There's a couple of others,
Speaker 1: and uh, you know, I guess I'm debating it whether
Speaker 1: to put out a second one or not. But it's like,
Speaker 1: you know, it's one of those things that listen. I know,
Speaker 1: I'm patting myself onto that. I think the book is
Speaker 1: really good, and it's hard to follow up on something
Speaker 1: that's really good, you know. But uh, you know, Godfather
Speaker 1: Too seemed to pull it off. I'm not sure. Friends
Speaker 1: with port Gopla, you know, but I don't know. Following
Speaker 1: it up might not be in my best interest, but
Speaker 1: we'll see. I'll figure it out at one point, I mean,
Speaker 1: not at this point, but we do have some other
Speaker 1: good stories. Nice and nice of me to make that public.
Speaker 1: By the way, to ask you that question publicly. By
Speaker 1: the way, I'm still waiting for a History of the
Speaker 1: World Part two as well, so you know you would
Speaker 1: You wouldn't be the first went promised. All right, let's
Speaker 1: do primetimes Sunday night. What do we got? Philadelphia had
Speaker 1: doubt there it is. I knew this game was coming
Speaker 1: to three and three teams NFC East. Oh, the NFC
Speaker 1: East Dallas from three and o to three and three. Uh.
Speaker 1: The Giants are one back and the Redskins are two back.
Speaker 1: Everybody's in play. Philadelphia and there lost to the Vikings,
Speaker 1: which you talked about earlier. Carson Wentz forty for three
Speaker 1: or six, two touchdowns, one pick, Miles Sanders three catches
Speaker 1: for ninety six yards and a touchdown Dallas in their
Speaker 1: loss to the Jets. How good do you feel about
Speaker 1: that Jets win there? Jeff, very excited about it. Well, again,
Speaker 1: it's a difference between having an an XFL quarterback playing
Speaker 1: and an NFL quarterback play. Well, you you said it
Speaker 1: very well yesterday when we were texting. You said, what
Speaker 1: this game proves is that the Cowboys are somewhat fraudulent,
Speaker 1: and we talked about that they be in the Giants, Redskins,
Speaker 1: and Dolphins, and that the Jets are perfectly average when
Speaker 1: they have a serviceable quarterback. Right, perfectly average. Uh. Dallas,
Speaker 1: of course, loses to the Jets yesterday by the score
Speaker 1: of twenty four to twenty two. Christie told us as
Speaker 1: a big, big game for the books. Among others, Zeke
Speaker 1: eight of one for one oh five a touchdown, five
Speaker 1: catches for forty seven UH. Late in the game, with
Speaker 1: Dallas marching down the field, officials called six straight penalties.
Speaker 1: We alluded to this earlier, six straight penalties during one stretch,
Speaker 1: including four on the Jets, which put the Cowboys in
Speaker 1: scoring position. So Dak Prescott runs for a four yard
Speaker 1: touchdown with forty three seconds left, making a two point game.
Speaker 1: They go for the tie. Of course, Prescott dropped back
Speaker 1: quickly met by Jamal Adams pass on the conversion falls
Speaker 1: short to Jason Witten, third straight loss for Dallas. Cowboys
Speaker 1: played without Lele Collins UH and Tyrone Smith, their two
Speaker 1: starting tackles, and Mary Cooper got sidelined most of the
Speaker 1: game QUADRACEEPS injury, so he was out early. They did
Speaker 1: have a sixty two yard from Brett Maher at the
Speaker 1: end of the first half. He becomes the first kicker
Speaker 1: in NFL history, according to sport Radar, with two field
Speaker 1: goals of at least sixty two yards. But it's the
Speaker 1: Jets in the end who hold on for dear your life.
Speaker 1: Jets get it done. With Sam Donald back from mono nucleosis,
Speaker 1: Dallas minus two and a half. I don't think it's
Speaker 1: the full three. I'll say minus two and a half. Well,
Speaker 1: this is one of those games Gilly three with juice
Speaker 1: on the dog, who and a half with juice on
Speaker 1: the favorite? Um? You know, I think, I guess I
Speaker 1: got to decide about the next fifteen minutes when I'm
Speaker 1: gonna open it. But I'm not sure yet. I really
Speaker 1: think three is too high. You know, why are we
Speaker 1: giving them the whole theoretical home field advantage in this scheme.
Speaker 1: I don't think they deserve it, and I'm not sure
Speaker 1: they're any better than Philadelphia. I think three is too high,
Speaker 1: you know. But two and a half, I mean, I
Speaker 1: know what what they're gonna do. I know they're gonna
Speaker 1: lay it to me. You know, I want to take
Speaker 1: about at two and a half. I think I probably do.
Speaker 1: I think at this point I reserved the right to
Speaker 1: change in the next fifteen minutes. But I think I'm
Speaker 1: gonna open this game two and a half, take up
Speaker 1: that and then go to three, and you know what,
Speaker 1: they'll probably take the three off me. But it's always
Speaker 1: the half point is where it gives them the advantage,
Speaker 1: not that the lands on the three and you book
Speaker 1: all your action at three. Obviously it's just a push.
Speaker 1: But I just don't see where Dallas deserves to be
Speaker 1: a three point favor in this game. I really just
Speaker 1: don't see it. They're not that good to me, and
Speaker 1: I think Philadelphia and you know they're up and down. Listen,
Speaker 1: they're not a great team, they are pretty good, and
Speaker 1: I just don't I think this is two teams staggering
Speaker 1: into this game. But I give Philadelphia the edge with
Speaker 1: any kind of points. Before the season started, I have
Speaker 1: Philadelphia and New England and the Super Bowl San Francisco
Speaker 1: is starting to get me to think otherwise about that.
Speaker 1: But I think Philadelphia is a better football teaman Dallas.
Speaker 1: More importantly, I think they're a better coached football team
Speaker 1: than Dallas. And for me, the bet comes down in
Speaker 1: this game to coaching, coaching and more coaching I'll take
Speaker 1: Peterson over the Clapper and Kellen Moore here any day
Speaker 1: of the week. And if you're giving me the full three, well,
Speaker 1: I would grab it in a in a heartbeat. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think they'll be able to find it at some point.
Speaker 1: I'm looking at one place right now does have a
Speaker 1: three flat actually two of them. But you know, Gil,
Speaker 1: you kind of touched on it. One of the two
Speaker 1: most important positions on the football team, you know, at
Speaker 1: least on the field to play quarterback and coach, and uh,
Speaker 1: I think Philadelphia has the edge. Maybe not a quarterback,
Speaker 1: I think that's close, but certainly the edge and coaching
Speaker 1: and maybe a slight edge and quarterback into So I
Speaker 1: give it to Philadelphia here. I, like I said, I
Speaker 1: don't see where Dallas is a three point name, but
Speaker 1: that they are. They are? Okay. What's Monday Night, New
Speaker 1: England at Jeff Parlay's Jets, New England. Another barn burner
Speaker 1: of an opponent. Good Lord, New England six and oh
Speaker 1: extra rest for New England here they beat the Giants
Speaker 1: and somehow covered on Thursday night team and Jets we
Speaker 1: just talked about beat the Cowboys. Donald by the way,
Speaker 1: Sam Donald yesterday twenty three thirty two for three thirty
Speaker 1: eight two touchdowns at a pick Robbie Anderson five catches
Speaker 1: including a ninety two yard touchdown, but they were the
Speaker 1: Jets were two of ten on third downs. They built
Speaker 1: that twenty one to three lead and held on for
Speaker 1: dear life, first win for Adam Gaze uh well as
Speaker 1: a Jets coach, and Levian Bell first score on the
Speaker 1: ground for the Jets yesterday for a touchdown. And oh,
Speaker 1: by the way, just some housekeeping when I kept screaming
Speaker 1: fifty four last week. The the streak of fifty four
Speaker 1: consecutive opponent possessions against the Jets scoring inside the Renzo
Speaker 1: uh Is snapped when the Jets stopped the Cowboys on
Speaker 1: downs in this ball game, and then the next past
Speaker 1: Donald went deep to to Anderson for that ninety two
Speaker 1: yard or to make it fourteen to three. So the
Speaker 1: fifth is the streak of fifty four straight opponent possessions done.
Speaker 1: So there's a tw tweet that somebody sent me craft
Speaker 1: four but not fifty five. But there is one other
Speaker 1: streak that the Jets need to be aware of. Twenty
Speaker 1: nine straight games for the Jets where they have failed
Speaker 1: to score a touchdown on their opening possession. That's the
Speaker 1: longest active streak in the NFL. So they're not out
Speaker 1: of the woods yet. By the way, Luke Falk cut immediately. Uh.
Speaker 1: Jets finished with two yards after getting to thirty three
Speaker 1: combined in their last two games with Luke Falk as
Speaker 1: their quarterback. UM Patriots minus ten on the road. It's
Speaker 1: nine and a half and ten. But before we go further,
Speaker 1: going back to the Jets, was it fifty four five? Yes? Okay,
Speaker 1: reminds me Max Kershner, fifty three. Unfortunately, not fifty four.
Speaker 1: You don't know what, Go buy my book. That's right,
Speaker 1: fifty three a different kind of streak. But yes, yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: ten jo, Yeah, I'm like nine and a half a
Speaker 1: little bit better here. Uh. You know, New England talked
Speaker 1: about them, they won and they covered last week. It's
Speaker 1: seven being point favorites. You know, they didn't look all
Speaker 1: that great to me, you know, yeah, listen, they're probably
Speaker 1: going to be the favorite, certainly out of the a
Speaker 1: f C to go to the Super Bowl. You know,
Speaker 1: there's kings in the armor of virtually everybody else on
Speaker 1: that side of the ledger. But I still don't think
Speaker 1: they're they're quite what they have been. But you know, listen,
Speaker 1: I'm seeing Billichick over the years, his teams tend to
Speaker 1: get better. They tend to peak in December and January
Speaker 1: and even in February. You know. So, but what we
Speaker 1: see right now, I don't think they're there. They're where
Speaker 1: they want to be. And maybe it's Billichick is never worried,
Speaker 1: wants to be. But I think ten is a little
Speaker 1: too high. I'm gonna open this game nine and a half.
Speaker 1: I see both numbers, but I think nine and a
Speaker 1: halfs a little bit better number. I really do. I
Speaker 1: think the Jets kind of hang in there. They're not great,
Speaker 1: but I'm mean, this is a big game for them,
Speaker 1: and I do see a little bit of a hometoil
Speaker 1: and advantage here for the Jets, um and that'll be
Speaker 1: a rabid fan base, certainly coming off the first win
Speaker 1: and god knows how long. So uh, I think they
Speaker 1: still be a little bit closer games than than the ten.
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna open this one night and a half.
Speaker 1: I cannot disagree with the sentiment about the Patriots. They
Speaker 1: do not look, uh, certainly at full strength. They may
Speaker 1: get there yet, as they tend to do November December,
Speaker 1: but certainly not uh currently at this moment. Coming back,
Speaker 1: we'll review it all say well, we like best guessing
Speaker 1: lines Week seven in the National Football League. Welcome back
Speaker 1: to a numbers game with Jill Alexander all Right. Two
Speaker 1: weeks ago on guessing lines, I followed everything I react
Speaker 1: to on guessing lines, kept it to my picks, went
Speaker 1: four and one. Last week had four games that I
Speaker 1: thought the wrong team was favorite. I only went with
Speaker 1: two of them. It was the two that didn't come through.
Speaker 1: Of course, that's how it works. So I'm gonna I'm
Speaker 1: gonna stick with my instincts here. Here's what I like
Speaker 1: so far. Jacksonville only giving three and a half on
Speaker 1: the road at the Bengals. I like Jacksonville. New Orleans.
Speaker 1: Um on the next page there New Orleans. Uh, let's see,
Speaker 1: only they're getting three and a half. I think you
Speaker 1: give me the hook there. I'll take New Orleans. San
Speaker 1: Francisco's only quote unquote giving ten against the Redskins. I
Speaker 1: like the Niners, and then Philadelphia. If you're telling me
Speaker 1: that's three. If it gets the three and I think
Speaker 1: that's what it opened at, I'll take the three on Philadelphia.
Speaker 1: The other one is Seattle. On the watch Seattle Seattle
Speaker 1: goes down to three, I'm all over the Seahawks in
Speaker 1: that one right now it's three and a half. I'll
Speaker 1: wait on that, but if that gets the three, I'll
Speaker 1: grab the Seahawks, as I'm sure many others will. So
Speaker 1: those are the Those are the five that leap to mind.
Speaker 1: Thirty seconds here, Chrissy, what do you react to here?
Speaker 1: What were your first instincts? Let me say the Niner
Speaker 1: game is going to nine and a half just about everywhere.
Speaker 1: I am still going to open ten and take up
Speaker 1: bet the games I like. I like the Colts minus
Speaker 1: you know one or pick you could find. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: open one and a half. Uh. I like I like Baltimore.
Speaker 1: You and I are different on the Seattle game. I
Speaker 1: like Baltimore getting the points. I like the Saints as
Speaker 1: well as you do, and I like Philly plus the three. Alright,
Speaker 1: So some spatico there on the last couple there, and
Speaker 1: we're OPO on Baltimore Seattle, Chris on one. Thank you
Speaker 1: as always, man, always a pleasure. Two hours flies by appreciated.
Speaker 1: It certainly does. All right, my friend, we'll talk again
Speaker 1: next week, next week, we'll do it all over again.
Speaker 1: I hope that's the first salvum for you in your
Speaker 1: attempt to handicap Weeks seven lines. Enjoy the football game
Speaker 1: tonight again, Packers by three and a half at home