1 00:00:05,800 --> 00:00:08,720 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg p m L Podcast. I'm pim Fox. 2 00:00:08,760 --> 00:00:11,440 Speaker 1: Along with my co host Lisa A. Bramowitz. Each day 3 00:00:11,480 --> 00:00:15,000 Speaker 1: we bring you the most important, noteworthy, and useful interviews 4 00:00:15,040 --> 00:00:17,520 Speaker 1: for you and your money, whether you're at the grocery 5 00:00:17,560 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: store or the trading floor. Find the Bloomberg p m 6 00:00:20,680 --> 00:00:32,000 Speaker 1: L Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and Bloomberg dot com. 7 00:00:32,080 --> 00:00:35,360 Speaker 1: We are broadcasting from with Ham's fifth Annual Global Summit 8 00:00:35,400 --> 00:00:39,040 Speaker 1: in New York City and the Keno It speaker how 9 00:00:39,080 --> 00:00:41,320 Speaker 1: to Focus That really hit home with me how to 10 00:00:41,360 --> 00:00:43,800 Speaker 1: fail less? He joins us, Now tell me how I 11 00:00:43,800 --> 00:00:47,240 Speaker 1: can fail less? Simon at nineans is chief executive officer 12 00:00:47,280 --> 00:00:51,080 Speaker 1: and chairman of Wayside Technology Group in Eatontown, New Jersey. 13 00:00:51,200 --> 00:00:54,640 Speaker 1: He joins us here at the Renaissance Hotel Street in 14 00:00:54,680 --> 00:00:58,520 Speaker 1: New York City. Simon, how can I fail us? Pleasure 15 00:00:58,560 --> 00:01:01,760 Speaker 1: to be here? How we feel less? Preferably by failing 16 00:01:01,760 --> 00:01:03,840 Speaker 1: a lot early on in life? And you fail a lot, 17 00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:06,200 Speaker 1: but when it doesn't matter, when it doesn't matter, so 18 00:01:06,240 --> 00:01:08,840 Speaker 1: you should practice a lot, fail a lot and get 19 00:01:08,880 --> 00:01:11,520 Speaker 1: better every single time. Usually when you have a first activity, 20 00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:13,520 Speaker 1: you're not that good at it. So tell me the 21 00:01:13,520 --> 00:01:16,399 Speaker 1: time that you failed early, that you think is a 22 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:19,319 Speaker 1: sort of a lynch pin for your success. Well, we 23 00:01:19,360 --> 00:01:21,440 Speaker 1: looked at it. I came to this acquisition. I worked 24 00:01:21,440 --> 00:01:25,319 Speaker 1: for an auditing firm and they hired me Ernstain. I 25 00:01:25,440 --> 00:01:27,480 Speaker 1: used to work for Instain Young and they bought this 26 00:01:27,520 --> 00:01:29,440 Speaker 1: company and said, you don't have a treasury company, you 27 00:01:29,440 --> 00:01:33,240 Speaker 1: don't have a holding company. UM, so why would you 28 00:01:33,240 --> 00:01:34,760 Speaker 1: you know you need that? And they said, well, if 29 00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:36,200 Speaker 1: you know everything, why did you come do it? For? 30 00:01:36,319 --> 00:01:38,960 Speaker 1: As I was from Amsterdam, the Americans came in and 31 00:01:38,959 --> 00:01:40,920 Speaker 1: I said, sure, I'll come join you, and they sent 32 00:01:40,959 --> 00:01:43,880 Speaker 1: me to Paris and the numbers looked really good. But 33 00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:45,880 Speaker 1: when I joined them in Paris that it was apparent 34 00:01:46,000 --> 00:01:49,360 Speaker 1: that it was a big mess. So there you go. Failed. 35 00:01:49,800 --> 00:01:53,840 Speaker 1: Didn't do my homework before I joined UM, but we did, 36 00:01:53,880 --> 00:01:56,800 Speaker 1: and I went with a lot of youthful enthusiasm and 37 00:01:56,840 --> 00:01:58,800 Speaker 1: tried to fix it and did that. And then they 38 00:01:58,800 --> 00:02:01,160 Speaker 1: got me to the US here and it became apparent 39 00:02:01,200 --> 00:02:03,560 Speaker 1: when I came here that we really have to sell 40 00:02:03,600 --> 00:02:05,760 Speaker 1: the European operations. So I went back to try to 41 00:02:05,800 --> 00:02:09,519 Speaker 1: sell the European operations. UM failed a lot there too. 42 00:02:09,560 --> 00:02:11,520 Speaker 1: You gets a lot of frogs and then finally you 43 00:02:11,560 --> 00:02:14,280 Speaker 1: get to do that success. There's a difference between failing 44 00:02:14,280 --> 00:02:16,680 Speaker 1: and taking risk. Though it sounds like he took risks 45 00:02:16,960 --> 00:02:20,640 Speaker 1: and perhaps you know, went into it without doing as 46 00:02:20,720 --> 00:02:23,600 Speaker 1: much homework, but can you. I mean, it seems like 47 00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:26,080 Speaker 1: it is part of the issue that to be a 48 00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:29,640 Speaker 1: good leader, especially early on, you have to take risks 49 00:02:29,720 --> 00:02:32,400 Speaker 1: and you have to try to do the impossible. Is 50 00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:34,600 Speaker 1: that what you're really going after here? Yeah, it's all 51 00:02:34,680 --> 00:02:37,399 Speaker 1: calculated risks, right, But there are three ways to lead. 52 00:02:37,480 --> 00:02:39,399 Speaker 1: One is with a fist. Right when we were living 53 00:02:39,440 --> 00:02:41,160 Speaker 1: in the cave and you didn't do what I said, 54 00:02:41,200 --> 00:02:43,560 Speaker 1: I smack you. You gotta do it like it's parenting, right, 55 00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:45,800 Speaker 1: you you and my child do what I say. And 56 00:02:45,800 --> 00:02:49,160 Speaker 1: then there's the third. The second one is um money, 57 00:02:49,720 --> 00:02:53,640 Speaker 1: I pay you money. You're management tensill over think people 58 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:56,400 Speaker 1: are corn operated machines. And then the third one is 59 00:02:56,400 --> 00:02:59,480 Speaker 1: really motivation. What really makes you take Why are you 60 00:02:59,560 --> 00:03:02,160 Speaker 1: choosing a professional? Really drives you in your life? And 61 00:03:02,160 --> 00:03:04,040 Speaker 1: I've noticed that as soon as you focus on the 62 00:03:04,120 --> 00:03:07,440 Speaker 1: third one, yes, you can fail their calculate risks, but 63 00:03:07,600 --> 00:03:08,960 Speaker 1: you love what you do and you do for the 64 00:03:09,040 --> 00:03:12,240 Speaker 1: right reason. So, um, that's basically what I want to 65 00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:14,840 Speaker 1: talk about. How do you implement that in your business 66 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:18,960 Speaker 1: and wayside? So in our company, I grew up under fear. 67 00:03:19,160 --> 00:03:21,360 Speaker 1: And well, it's funny when I do these talks and 68 00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:23,400 Speaker 1: I asked people, do you have a bad leader, The 69 00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:25,200 Speaker 1: first thing that comes to mind is always that one 70 00:03:25,240 --> 00:03:27,720 Speaker 1: bad leader who stood out, and usually it's the violence person. 71 00:03:27,760 --> 00:03:31,800 Speaker 1: And it's not just physical violence, it's also psychological warfare. 72 00:03:31,919 --> 00:03:33,720 Speaker 1: Right when you walk into that office, you've got to 73 00:03:33,760 --> 00:03:36,680 Speaker 1: come all guarded. You're like, oh my god, I'm gonna 74 00:03:36,680 --> 00:03:39,280 Speaker 1: go in, I'm gonna get yelled at. I hated it. 75 00:03:39,400 --> 00:03:42,120 Speaker 1: I hated it, this public humiliation when you did something 76 00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:44,400 Speaker 1: wrong and that leader came in and it's your fault 77 00:03:44,440 --> 00:03:47,680 Speaker 1: and look showing off. I call it PEAKR behavior, like 78 00:03:48,040 --> 00:03:50,200 Speaker 1: you know, you're my victim and I show the rest 79 00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:52,800 Speaker 1: of how strong I am. Um. So I hated that, 80 00:03:52,880 --> 00:03:55,400 Speaker 1: and I said, there's only there's only two ways, um, 81 00:03:56,320 --> 00:03:58,800 Speaker 1: you can lead. It is by motivation or by fear. 82 00:03:58,840 --> 00:04:01,360 Speaker 1: So I chose motivation. And so in our office, I 83 00:04:01,400 --> 00:04:03,680 Speaker 1: asked people what really drives you? And they said, it 84 00:04:03,680 --> 00:04:05,560 Speaker 1: would be great if we can work from home normally 85 00:04:05,600 --> 00:04:08,480 Speaker 1: people work only from home. We've done senior positions. I 86 00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:10,720 Speaker 1: turned that around and I said, everybody can work from home. 87 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:12,920 Speaker 1: We started with one day, we're now up to three days. 88 00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:15,240 Speaker 1: You can come in if you want to for the 89 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:18,240 Speaker 1: camaraderie and and and talk. And our office are beautiful. 90 00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:21,279 Speaker 1: Um people like in silence, people like to be loud. 91 00:04:21,680 --> 00:04:23,960 Speaker 1: We had them next to each other. Didn't work out well. 92 00:04:24,160 --> 00:04:25,960 Speaker 1: So now we have half her office. Nobody has a 93 00:04:26,000 --> 00:04:28,400 Speaker 1: desk anymore. I don't have a desk. Half two people 94 00:04:28,440 --> 00:04:30,560 Speaker 1: can work in outside. Half two people work in what 95 00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:33,400 Speaker 1: we call the cockpit. It's a quiet zone and you 96 00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:36,359 Speaker 1: don't talk. People like to work at cubicles. People like 97 00:04:36,440 --> 00:04:38,640 Speaker 1: to work in private offices. People like to work in 98 00:04:38,680 --> 00:04:41,920 Speaker 1: a collaboration room. So build all of it. Don't force 99 00:04:41,960 --> 00:04:43,960 Speaker 1: people in cubicles, but also don't force him in this 100 00:04:44,120 --> 00:04:47,520 Speaker 1: open room or in private offices. Do what they want. 101 00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:51,080 Speaker 1: And some people like to work in the Starbucks cafe setting, 102 00:04:51,240 --> 00:04:54,000 Speaker 1: so we build a We build a cafe Starbucks kind 103 00:04:54,000 --> 00:04:56,320 Speaker 1: of like we have a outdoor deck. You can work. 104 00:04:56,680 --> 00:04:59,440 Speaker 1: But the point of the matter is what really matters 105 00:04:59,440 --> 00:05:05,200 Speaker 1: interviews is that we sell software. It doesn't matter that 106 00:05:05,480 --> 00:05:07,279 Speaker 1: you know, I had a manager coming in. She came 107 00:05:07,320 --> 00:05:09,640 Speaker 1: in late today and it was horrible. So I made 108 00:05:09,640 --> 00:05:12,120 Speaker 1: her state in our extra so what do we in kindergarten? Is? 109 00:05:12,160 --> 00:05:15,240 Speaker 1: This is this high school? What are you doing? Well? 110 00:05:15,320 --> 00:05:16,960 Speaker 1: She came in late, so I said, why don't we 111 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:19,520 Speaker 1: have a conversation with her? You know, underpinning all of 112 00:05:19,560 --> 00:05:23,320 Speaker 1: this is this feeling that it isn't that easy to 113 00:05:23,520 --> 00:05:26,720 Speaker 1: recruit and retain quality workers right now? Have you found 114 00:05:27,320 --> 00:05:29,280 Speaker 1: have you found that has it been difficult for you? 115 00:05:29,440 --> 00:05:31,839 Speaker 1: Not with the retention necessarily because it sounds like people 116 00:05:31,880 --> 00:05:33,640 Speaker 1: are very happy with this, but as far as when 117 00:05:33,680 --> 00:05:35,719 Speaker 1: you go out and look to replace somebody, is it 118 00:05:35,720 --> 00:05:38,000 Speaker 1: difficult for you? Yeah? I mean we're in Eaton Town, 119 00:05:38,040 --> 00:05:40,680 Speaker 1: New Jersey, right, We're not in New York. Uh, So 120 00:05:40,839 --> 00:05:42,560 Speaker 1: what do we do out there? You know, you really 121 00:05:42,600 --> 00:05:44,960 Speaker 1: create a family atmosphere. People want to work with us. 122 00:05:44,960 --> 00:05:48,279 Speaker 1: Our average tenure is much longer than our competition, and 123 00:05:48,360 --> 00:05:50,960 Speaker 1: I believe in that. I believe paying a fair wage 124 00:05:51,320 --> 00:05:53,800 Speaker 1: and really involving people. But more than that, we have 125 00:05:53,839 --> 00:05:56,559 Speaker 1: a banner above the door that says did today really matter? 126 00:05:57,400 --> 00:05:59,599 Speaker 1: And I actively when in the beginning, when I took 127 00:05:59,640 --> 00:06:01,719 Speaker 1: over and worked my way up and two thousand and 128 00:06:01,720 --> 00:06:04,960 Speaker 1: six I started as European controller, then became worldwide controller 129 00:06:04,960 --> 00:06:08,520 Speaker 1: and a CFO and executive vice president. And when I 130 00:06:08,600 --> 00:06:10,960 Speaker 1: became CEO, the first thing I told people is like, 131 00:06:11,000 --> 00:06:12,919 Speaker 1: if you're unhappy, you got to come to me. And 132 00:06:12,920 --> 00:06:15,960 Speaker 1: they said, yeah, here's the European guy that that's going 133 00:06:16,000 --> 00:06:18,080 Speaker 1: to be helping me finding a new job. If I'm 134 00:06:18,120 --> 00:06:20,240 Speaker 1: happy in my job, I said absolutely well, and but 135 00:06:20,279 --> 00:06:22,440 Speaker 1: don't tell your manager. If you feel uncomfortable about it, 136 00:06:22,480 --> 00:06:25,280 Speaker 1: come to me. Now, why would I do that? I 137 00:06:25,320 --> 00:06:29,360 Speaker 1: did that because unhappy people effect on average like eight 138 00:06:29,400 --> 00:06:31,360 Speaker 1: people around him. And we all know that you all 139 00:06:31,400 --> 00:06:33,720 Speaker 1: have that unhappy person at work, and it's like, oh, 140 00:06:33,760 --> 00:06:35,440 Speaker 1: we had a great speech, and then after us, oh, 141 00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:39,040 Speaker 1: it's all bus with that is bad. I don't believe them. 142 00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:44,280 Speaker 1: We're gonna go. It's terrible. Um. So I helped a 143 00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:46,159 Speaker 1: couple of people find that other job. And you know 144 00:06:46,200 --> 00:06:48,320 Speaker 1: what they did. They went to that other company. They 145 00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:50,719 Speaker 1: were happy and they said this guy was crazy, but 146 00:06:51,279 --> 00:06:54,360 Speaker 1: buy your software there. That's a win win. Simon Ninans, 147 00:06:54,400 --> 00:06:56,520 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. Simon Ninans is 148 00:06:56,600 --> 00:07:00,240 Speaker 1: chief executive officer and chairman of the Wayside Technology Group 149 00:07:00,440 --> 00:07:03,920 Speaker 1: based in Eaton Town, New Jersey, with treadmills for the desks. 150 00:07:04,000 --> 00:07:18,920 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg. Right now, we are going to take 151 00:07:18,960 --> 00:07:22,800 Speaker 1: a look at the October jobs report. Ward McCarthy joins 152 00:07:22,880 --> 00:07:27,280 Speaker 1: US now. Ward McCarthy is the chief financial economist for Jeffreyes. 153 00:07:27,680 --> 00:07:31,040 Speaker 1: The numbers came out, they were slightly disappointing, and US 154 00:07:31,120 --> 00:07:34,720 Speaker 1: added two hundred and sixty one jobs, lesson people expected. 155 00:07:34,760 --> 00:07:37,120 Speaker 1: But really it's the wages that they didn't grow at all, 156 00:07:37,240 --> 00:07:41,080 Speaker 1: and they had been expected to grow. Word, what was 157 00:07:41,080 --> 00:07:45,239 Speaker 1: your first take of this report? Well, the the labor 158 00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:49,720 Speaker 1: blanket data continues to reflect some of the consequences of 159 00:07:49,760 --> 00:07:53,520 Speaker 1: the hurricane. Last months, the payerial numbers were really weak 160 00:07:54,240 --> 00:07:57,240 Speaker 1: because of the hurricane, while the household survey was strong 161 00:07:57,720 --> 00:08:01,320 Speaker 1: and this month that clip plopped. And as you pointed out, 162 00:08:01,440 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 1: the weakest aspect really of all of this data was 163 00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:09,360 Speaker 1: the fact that average hourly earnings were unchanged and they've 164 00:08:09,400 --> 00:08:12,240 Speaker 1: been just very volatile in recent months. And to the 165 00:08:12,520 --> 00:08:16,640 Speaker 1: prior three months, average hourly earnings had risen five tenths 166 00:08:16,680 --> 00:08:19,760 Speaker 1: of one per cent. And I think that in September 167 00:08:19,760 --> 00:08:24,240 Speaker 1: and October some compositional issues played a big factor. For example, 168 00:08:24,640 --> 00:08:28,119 Speaker 1: the low paying food service and drinking establishment pay rolls 169 00:08:28,160 --> 00:08:31,600 Speaker 1: fell ninety eight thousand in September and they also popped 170 00:08:31,680 --> 00:08:35,280 Speaker 1: eighty nine thousand in October. So uh, the decline in 171 00:08:35,320 --> 00:08:39,319 Speaker 1: September boosted wage measures, while their rise this month UH 172 00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:42,440 Speaker 1: suppressed wage measures. So I think we really have to 173 00:08:42,480 --> 00:08:45,080 Speaker 1: see the November data and maybe even wait to see 174 00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:49,680 Speaker 1: the Deceamberge data before we can really get our hands around, 175 00:08:49,920 --> 00:08:54,080 Speaker 1: uh whether or not the labor market has changed. So uh, 176 00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:56,079 Speaker 1: you know, I know we have a sense of what 177 00:08:56,200 --> 00:08:59,319 Speaker 1: the Janet yell and Photo Reserve would look would look 178 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:02,719 Speaker 1: at in these jobs supports. What's Jerome Powell going to 179 00:09:02,760 --> 00:09:05,720 Speaker 1: be looking at next year, because we granted the data 180 00:09:05,800 --> 00:09:07,600 Speaker 1: right now is pretty muddy, is still kind of being 181 00:09:07,600 --> 00:09:11,200 Speaker 1: influenced by the hurricanes. But next year, what's he going 182 00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:13,959 Speaker 1: to be looking for in order to determine whether the 183 00:09:14,000 --> 00:09:17,440 Speaker 1: high rates three times two times or not at all? Oh, 184 00:09:17,480 --> 00:09:19,240 Speaker 1: I think he'll be looking at the same thing that 185 00:09:19,320 --> 00:09:21,840 Speaker 1: Jenny Ellen has been looking at and that other members 186 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:23,760 Speaker 1: of the f O m C have been focused on, 187 00:09:24,320 --> 00:09:27,600 Speaker 1: and that is, you know, what is really happening with 188 00:09:27,720 --> 00:09:32,800 Speaker 1: the underlying inflation measures in the US. Uh, inflation has been, 189 00:09:33,000 --> 00:09:35,719 Speaker 1: you know, a gone through a series of stops and 190 00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:38,839 Speaker 1: starts over the course of this cycle. And this year, 191 00:09:38,880 --> 00:09:42,880 Speaker 1: of course, inflation measures have been somewhat on the soft side. 192 00:09:42,960 --> 00:09:46,360 Speaker 1: So I don't think that's going to change with with 193 00:09:46,720 --> 00:09:50,080 Speaker 1: Powell being at the HELM. I think that uh, you know, 194 00:09:50,120 --> 00:09:53,120 Speaker 1: they're the Fed is pretty happy with what's been happening 195 00:09:53,120 --> 00:09:56,400 Speaker 1: in the labor market. Uh, They're still pretty confused and 196 00:09:56,480 --> 00:10:00,000 Speaker 1: not completely comfortable with what's happening on the inflation side. 197 00:10:01,200 --> 00:10:04,680 Speaker 1: I'm struck by the tax reform bill that we got yesterday. 198 00:10:04,760 --> 00:10:06,560 Speaker 1: A lot of people were waiting for this to sort 199 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:09,480 Speaker 1: of ignite growth, some sort of fiscal stimulus. We haven't 200 00:10:09,520 --> 00:10:14,079 Speaker 1: hearned anything about infrastructure spending. But yesterday the GOP released 201 00:10:14,360 --> 00:10:20,120 Speaker 1: their tax bill and yields fell upon prices rose, Expectations 202 00:10:20,160 --> 00:10:22,640 Speaker 1: for growth seemed to diminish if you look at the 203 00:10:22,760 --> 00:10:26,880 Speaker 1: narrowing yield curve. Why is that? Well? I think this 204 00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:29,880 Speaker 1: was another one of those by the rumors sell the 205 00:10:29,920 --> 00:10:33,760 Speaker 1: news types of stories. Uh, And quite frankly, with a 206 00:10:33,800 --> 00:10:37,040 Speaker 1: lot of the information that came out on tax reform 207 00:10:37,160 --> 00:10:42,640 Speaker 1: yesterday was a little bit um, I think conflicted and 208 00:10:42,640 --> 00:10:46,079 Speaker 1: and confusing. On the corporate side, I think they pretty 209 00:10:46,120 --> 00:10:49,800 Speaker 1: much nailed it, uh. And the corporate tax reform is 210 00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:52,880 Speaker 1: much needed and will help make the US economy UH 211 00:10:53,040 --> 00:10:56,600 Speaker 1: much more competitive in the globalized world. So that was 212 00:10:57,080 --> 00:10:59,400 Speaker 1: for the most proud, I think pretty good news on 213 00:10:59,520 --> 00:11:04,080 Speaker 1: the end of visual tax size and the changes UM 214 00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:09,400 Speaker 1: make it really difficult to assess, UM because the consequences 215 00:11:09,400 --> 00:11:13,320 Speaker 1: are very different UH for different types of people. UH. 216 00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:17,080 Speaker 1: If indeed, and this appears to be the case, that 217 00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:19,600 Speaker 1: there is going to be a meaningful tax cut for 218 00:11:20,360 --> 00:11:24,440 Speaker 1: uh most middle class individuals, then that should help growth 219 00:11:24,559 --> 00:11:27,680 Speaker 1: because it gives UH the people who are most likely 220 00:11:27,720 --> 00:11:30,960 Speaker 1: to spend it more income to spend. But it also 221 00:11:31,559 --> 00:11:36,199 Speaker 1: causes some problems in areas where already have problems, specifically 222 00:11:36,280 --> 00:11:41,240 Speaker 1: with the handling of mortgage deductions and also state local taxes. 223 00:11:41,760 --> 00:11:47,160 Speaker 1: Because of demographics, some of the higher UM priced existing 224 00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:53,400 Speaker 1: homes having a difficult time selling and um uh these 225 00:11:53,520 --> 00:11:56,240 Speaker 1: and and that's especially true in some of the high 226 00:11:56,280 --> 00:12:00,160 Speaker 1: tax states, and yesterday's tax reform is really only going 227 00:12:00,240 --> 00:12:04,120 Speaker 1: to exacerbate that problem. It also will increase the federal 228 00:12:04,160 --> 00:12:06,440 Speaker 1: deficit by one and a half trillion dollars. At least 229 00:12:06,440 --> 00:12:11,520 Speaker 1: that's the estimate, not including any extra income from faster growth. 230 00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:14,360 Speaker 1: I do wonder though, what that means for the U. S. 231 00:12:14,400 --> 00:12:16,040 Speaker 1: Treasury Department. Does that mean that they're going to have 232 00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:21,840 Speaker 1: to start issuing longer dated bonds in order to finance themselves. Well, 233 00:12:21,880 --> 00:12:25,239 Speaker 1: I think the answer to that question is yes, um, 234 00:12:25,280 --> 00:12:29,160 Speaker 1: both because, uh, you know, if this tax reform goes through, 235 00:12:29,400 --> 00:12:32,280 Speaker 1: the size of the deficits it's going to increase, as 236 00:12:32,360 --> 00:12:34,000 Speaker 1: you pointed out, by as much as one and a 237 00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:37,040 Speaker 1: half trillion. But in addition, the Fed has started to 238 00:12:37,080 --> 00:12:41,240 Speaker 1: shrink its balance sheet and the Treasury securities that it 239 00:12:41,360 --> 00:12:45,120 Speaker 1: rolls off its balance sheet um does have to be 240 00:12:45,200 --> 00:12:48,640 Speaker 1: financed by the Treasury. So, uh, it may it's not 241 00:12:48,679 --> 00:12:52,760 Speaker 1: going to be a seventeen event, but yes, in eighteen 242 00:12:52,840 --> 00:12:55,720 Speaker 1: and beyond, we are going to see the Treasury issue 243 00:12:55,760 --> 00:12:59,720 Speaker 1: more longer term debt simply because the government seems intent 244 00:12:59,840 --> 00:13:03,439 Speaker 1: to and digging itself into a deeper fiscal hole. Well, 245 00:13:03,559 --> 00:13:05,280 Speaker 1: what's your sense about what that will do to yields? 246 00:13:05,280 --> 00:13:07,600 Speaker 1: I mean, I would guess that as the deficit deepens 247 00:13:07,720 --> 00:13:10,599 Speaker 1: and the US sells moren't debt, that would mean that 248 00:13:10,679 --> 00:13:13,120 Speaker 1: borrowing costs go up. I mean, that's the logic, especially 249 00:13:13,160 --> 00:13:16,640 Speaker 1: if the Federal Service also unwinding its balance sheet. How 250 00:13:16,760 --> 00:13:19,760 Speaker 1: how could that not play out that way? Well, I 251 00:13:21,200 --> 00:13:22,960 Speaker 1: tend to agree with you, and I think that is 252 00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:26,600 Speaker 1: how we'll play out. But it's it's a very slow 253 00:13:26,679 --> 00:13:30,600 Speaker 1: moving process. With the FED beginning to shrink its balance sheet. 254 00:13:30,640 --> 00:13:34,319 Speaker 1: It's the beginning of the end of the control that 255 00:13:34,760 --> 00:13:38,360 Speaker 1: central bank balance sheets have over the bond market. And 256 00:13:38,480 --> 00:13:43,760 Speaker 1: that's the normalization process. And as the normalization process persists, uh, 257 00:13:43,840 --> 00:13:48,280 Speaker 1: that should cause rates to you know, um, move somewhat 258 00:13:48,360 --> 00:13:52,319 Speaker 1: higher over a period of time. Uh. And that's both 259 00:13:52,400 --> 00:13:55,360 Speaker 1: from the balance sheet and the FED and all the 260 00:13:55,480 --> 00:13:58,680 Speaker 1: central banks raising short term rates as well. And all 261 00:13:58,679 --> 00:14:02,120 Speaker 1: of this is a natural process of the US economy 262 00:14:02,400 --> 00:14:07,000 Speaker 1: showing strength and resilience, um, you know, many years now 263 00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:12,080 Speaker 1: since our after the financial crisis. So I'm just curious 264 00:14:12,080 --> 00:14:13,920 Speaker 1: because as I listened to it all makes sense, and 265 00:14:14,040 --> 00:14:16,000 Speaker 1: I'm not in an agreement. I'm thinking, all right, throw 266 00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:18,400 Speaker 1: on wanting their balance sheets. The US is going deeper 267 00:14:18,440 --> 00:14:21,240 Speaker 1: into deficit, it should lead to higher yields. And yet 268 00:14:21,320 --> 00:14:24,640 Speaker 1: the logic that seemed to guide markets in the past 269 00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:26,920 Speaker 1: seems to be missing these days. The FETE is actually 270 00:14:27,000 --> 00:14:31,600 Speaker 1: raising rates. Um, do you think this time is different? Well, 271 00:14:32,760 --> 00:14:36,160 Speaker 1: it's I'm not sure what you mean by this time different. Well, 272 00:14:36,160 --> 00:14:42,000 Speaker 1: the yields will actually rise. Well yeah, I think that. Well, 273 00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:44,600 Speaker 1: this time, I wouldn't say is different. I think that 274 00:14:44,680 --> 00:14:48,440 Speaker 1: what's happening is we're returning to a normal cycle. Has 275 00:14:48,520 --> 00:14:51,720 Speaker 1: been the last nine years that have been different, and 276 00:14:51,760 --> 00:14:55,600 Speaker 1: they've been different because of the youth of central bank 277 00:14:55,640 --> 00:14:59,760 Speaker 1: balance sheets to influence the financial markets. And as this 278 00:15:00,200 --> 00:15:05,720 Speaker 1: a central bank balancing influence over the financial markets, uh 279 00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:10,680 Speaker 1: is a gradually eroded, then the financial markets will return 280 00:15:10,760 --> 00:15:14,440 Speaker 1: towards normal and that will give us more normal cyclical 281 00:15:14,480 --> 00:15:17,520 Speaker 1: behavior both our interest rates in the stock market. How 282 00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:22,440 Speaker 1: high can tenure yields go before they send the US 283 00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:28,520 Speaker 1: economy and to another recession? Well, I think that, Uh, 284 00:15:28,720 --> 00:15:31,480 Speaker 1: you need to see interest rates substantially higher from where 285 00:15:31,520 --> 00:15:34,280 Speaker 1: they are now to cause the US economy to go 286 00:15:34,320 --> 00:15:38,200 Speaker 1: into recession. And I think short term rates would have 287 00:15:38,240 --> 00:15:41,600 Speaker 1: to be as much as three hundred basis points higher 288 00:15:41,600 --> 00:15:46,160 Speaker 1: than this. The tenure yield probably somewhere around two hundred 289 00:15:46,160 --> 00:15:48,840 Speaker 1: basis points higher. So, in other words, of tenure yields 290 00:15:48,840 --> 00:15:51,560 Speaker 1: were about a little over four percent. That would be 291 00:15:51,680 --> 00:15:55,240 Speaker 1: enough to send the US into a session. Well, not necessarily, 292 00:15:55,280 --> 00:16:00,160 Speaker 1: but I would that's the yield levels of of that magnitude, UM, 293 00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:13,200 Speaker 1: I think would be uh, you know, cause yellow flags. Anyway, 294 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:19,640 Speaker 1: here to talk more about the tax plan and some 295 00:16:19,720 --> 00:16:22,320 Speaker 1: of what Gary Khne was talking about as Dave Springsteen, 296 00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:25,400 Speaker 1: partner and head of the tax department at with Them, 297 00:16:25,800 --> 00:16:28,720 Speaker 1: were also joined by Tony Anita, the tax partner for 298 00:16:28,880 --> 00:16:31,720 Speaker 1: with Them in Colorado. Dave, I want to start with you. 299 00:16:31,800 --> 00:16:35,320 Speaker 1: One thing that Gary Cohen said was that people do 300 00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:38,920 Speaker 1: not buy a house based on the deduction that they 301 00:16:38,960 --> 00:16:41,760 Speaker 1: get from their taxes with respect to their interest payments. 302 00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:44,720 Speaker 1: Is that true? I think it's a motivating factor that 303 00:16:44,760 --> 00:16:47,720 Speaker 1: people buy homes invest a little higher than their means 304 00:16:47,760 --> 00:16:51,000 Speaker 1: because they get an interest tax deduction, they get a 305 00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:53,240 Speaker 1: real estate tax deduction. So, you know, I take a 306 00:16:53,240 --> 00:16:58,240 Speaker 1: different view. Maybe there's a level of taxpayers that don't 307 00:16:58,240 --> 00:17:01,720 Speaker 1: need the interest deduction, but more stuffus do. So Tony, 308 00:17:01,840 --> 00:17:04,520 Speaker 1: just have you been I'm sure, spending pretty much every 309 00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:07,560 Speaker 1: waking hour since yesterday morning trying to pass through this 310 00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:11,879 Speaker 1: report the plan? Um, do you think that it will 311 00:17:11,920 --> 00:17:17,720 Speaker 1: materially change the outlook for smaller businesses for the positive. Well, 312 00:17:17,760 --> 00:17:20,160 Speaker 1: I think the answer to that really hinges on how 313 00:17:20,240 --> 00:17:22,800 Speaker 1: you to find small business You know, it's funny when 314 00:17:23,840 --> 00:17:27,080 Speaker 1: this proposal first came out, you know, I I get 315 00:17:27,080 --> 00:17:29,880 Speaker 1: inundated with emails from lobbying groups just because I write 316 00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:33,600 Speaker 1: about tax law for Forbes. And the first two emails 317 00:17:33,600 --> 00:17:36,400 Speaker 1: that came into my box, the first one said, uh, 318 00:17:36,520 --> 00:17:39,879 Speaker 1: Trump tax proposal doesn't House tax proposal does nothing for 319 00:17:39,880 --> 00:17:43,000 Speaker 1: small businesses, and the second one says, House tax proposal 320 00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:45,400 Speaker 1: great for small businesses. Depends on how you find small 321 00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:49,399 Speaker 1: businesses because the idea of a rate for flow throughs 322 00:17:49,480 --> 00:17:53,119 Speaker 1: is all well and good, but the reality is people 323 00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:56,240 Speaker 1: under current law up to two fifty dollars of income 324 00:17:56,280 --> 00:17:59,960 Speaker 1: are already paying tax at rate. So who's really benefit 325 00:18:00,400 --> 00:18:02,320 Speaker 1: tends to be on the higher end of the income scale. 326 00:18:02,320 --> 00:18:03,760 Speaker 1: So it tends to be the people that are paying 327 00:18:04,040 --> 00:18:06,640 Speaker 1: thirty nine point six under current law that suddenly get 328 00:18:06,640 --> 00:18:09,760 Speaker 1: a drop in the rate. And that's where the real 329 00:18:09,800 --> 00:18:14,399 Speaker 1: windfall is. And so small businesses, that depends how you know, 330 00:18:14,480 --> 00:18:16,760 Speaker 1: if you're making three a year from your business, is 331 00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:19,879 Speaker 1: really necessarily a small business for some it maybe for 332 00:18:19,920 --> 00:18:22,600 Speaker 1: others it may not. Well, David, who is getting the windfall? 333 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:26,080 Speaker 1: Because I've also been reading reports that the big conglomerates, 334 00:18:26,080 --> 00:18:29,720 Speaker 1: the international companies like Ge and Apple, will as we've 335 00:18:29,720 --> 00:18:32,919 Speaker 1: been hearing, basically been be taxed more on the cash 336 00:18:32,960 --> 00:18:35,840 Speaker 1: that they hold and will be facing other levees that 337 00:18:35,840 --> 00:18:37,800 Speaker 1: they currently aren't that they could actually end up with 338 00:18:37,840 --> 00:18:40,600 Speaker 1: a higher tax rate after this is implemented than they 339 00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:43,199 Speaker 1: face now. Yeah, I guess the scorecard on winners and 340 00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:46,359 Speaker 1: losers just yet to come. The guys down scoring the 341 00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:49,000 Speaker 1: tax lell change. They only have limited amount of information 342 00:18:49,040 --> 00:18:51,560 Speaker 1: to deal with this. But at the end of the day, 343 00:18:52,720 --> 00:18:56,120 Speaker 1: corporate rates are going down, but we don't know how 344 00:18:56,240 --> 00:18:58,800 Speaker 1: much corporate taxes. Well, but I'll let me push back 345 00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:01,120 Speaker 1: on that a little bit because now people we talk 346 00:19:01,160 --> 00:19:04,399 Speaker 1: about a very high tax rate, No big company pays 347 00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:08,119 Speaker 1: that rate exactly that That was my point absolutely, so 348 00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:10,440 Speaker 1: we had had a discussion about that before that. Even 349 00:19:10,480 --> 00:19:13,439 Speaker 1: though there's a thirty corporate rate, how many companies are 350 00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:15,639 Speaker 1: actually paying at that rate with all the incentives and 351 00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:19,679 Speaker 1: the off shoring. So we'll see, Tony. One thing that 352 00:19:19,800 --> 00:19:24,080 Speaker 1: has loomed large certainly in the credit world is that 353 00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:27,800 Speaker 1: for highly indebted companies, they will not be able to 354 00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:32,280 Speaker 1: deduct all of their interest. This could potentially, frankly, I 355 00:19:32,280 --> 00:19:34,920 Speaker 1: mean life or death for some of the smaller, more 356 00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:36,639 Speaker 1: levered companies. I mean you think about the Toys r 357 00:19:36,720 --> 00:19:39,120 Speaker 1: US for example, they would have probably gone into bankruptcy 358 00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:41,800 Speaker 1: earlier if they couldn't deduct as much of their interest 359 00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:44,359 Speaker 1: as they could. What are you hearing about that? Well, 360 00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:47,200 Speaker 1: the proposal we saw yesterday builds in a safeguard, so 361 00:19:47,320 --> 00:19:50,359 Speaker 1: any company with average re seats in less than twenty 362 00:19:50,359 --> 00:19:52,159 Speaker 1: five million is not going to be subject to the 363 00:19:52,200 --> 00:19:55,840 Speaker 1: interest limitation. But yeah, any anybody beyond that. What they're 364 00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:58,600 Speaker 1: trying to do, um, it's really kind of threefold. I mean, 365 00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:01,040 Speaker 1: number one, that need a way to pay for these 366 00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:04,120 Speaker 1: corporate tax cuts, right, so you raise some additional revenue 367 00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:07,639 Speaker 1: by the denying deduction for interest expense. Uh. Number Two, 368 00:20:08,400 --> 00:20:12,480 Speaker 1: you're trying to shift the dependency on debt away and 369 00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:17,080 Speaker 1: have more infusion of capital rather than loans into corporations. 370 00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:20,160 Speaker 1: And then three you're simplifying the tax law a bit 371 00:20:20,240 --> 00:20:23,720 Speaker 1: because you no longer have incentive to set up a 372 00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:27,040 Speaker 1: foreign affiliate loan money to the US and then strip 373 00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:29,919 Speaker 1: earnings out by paying interest to a tax in different countries. 374 00:20:29,920 --> 00:20:32,040 Speaker 1: And so they're going to move forward with this, at 375 00:20:32,119 --> 00:20:33,840 Speaker 1: least that's what they're saying at this point. It was 376 00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:36,520 Speaker 1: certainly in the proposal yesterday, and again it's it's a 377 00:20:36,600 --> 00:20:40,520 Speaker 1: key part of paying for these huge corporate tax rate reductions, 378 00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:45,040 Speaker 1: because the rate reduction a loan from thirty is at 379 00:20:45,080 --> 00:20:47,640 Speaker 1: one point eight trillion dollar tax cut over ten years, 380 00:20:47,680 --> 00:20:51,200 Speaker 1: and the maximum size of all of these cuts, business, individual, 381 00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:54,280 Speaker 1: foreign what have you can only top out at one 382 00:20:54,280 --> 00:20:56,280 Speaker 1: point five trillions. So you've got to come up with 383 00:20:56,320 --> 00:20:58,800 Speaker 1: pay for us. Dave, our company is going to be 384 00:20:58,840 --> 00:21:04,320 Speaker 1: filing their tax on postcards. I doubt it's what about individuals? 385 00:21:04,560 --> 00:21:07,160 Speaker 1: There may be a few that will go the postcard route, 386 00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:09,159 Speaker 1: but right now we have a lot of those anyway. 387 00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:13,320 Speaker 1: Really okay, Well, I'm just wondering from your perspective, this 388 00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:16,720 Speaker 1: bill gets dropped. It's November. They're looking to pass this 389 00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:18,320 Speaker 1: by the end of the year. They want to implement 390 00:21:18,359 --> 00:21:20,840 Speaker 1: it as quickly as possible because I need delay. Uh, 391 00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:23,600 Speaker 1: sort of pushes back any potential growth that could come 392 00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:25,880 Speaker 1: from this. How do you guys deal with that? Day 393 00:21:26,480 --> 00:21:28,879 Speaker 1: We're gonna be spending a lot of hours dissecting the rules, 394 00:21:28,920 --> 00:21:31,199 Speaker 1: watching the changes. At the end of the day, we 395 00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:33,160 Speaker 1: also need to be aware of the regulations that will 396 00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:37,359 Speaker 1: follow these rules, because it may be beneficial on paper 397 00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:40,040 Speaker 1: in the basic code, but once the legs are done, 398 00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:43,359 Speaker 1: it could look completely different. So being aware and that 399 00:21:43,440 --> 00:21:45,639 Speaker 1: makes those business decisions with our clients is gonna be 400 00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:49,280 Speaker 1: very important, Tony. And just from your experience, how much 401 00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:51,840 Speaker 1: can we read into what we're seeing now? I mean, 402 00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:53,720 Speaker 1: whenever I speak to somebody that they're saying, you know, 403 00:21:53,800 --> 00:21:57,440 Speaker 1: this is an opening salvo. What in this bill sort 404 00:21:57,440 --> 00:22:00,040 Speaker 1: of gets your attention as being a non negotia, a 405 00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:04,359 Speaker 1: bull point that will not change. Well, you know, if 406 00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:06,639 Speaker 1: you believe President Trump, you know that corporate rate is 407 00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:10,480 Speaker 1: not going to budge, you know, one percent higher than UM. 408 00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:14,119 Speaker 1: I think that's a part of his kind of the 409 00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:18,119 Speaker 1: pillar of his presidency, which is just convinced corporations to 410 00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:20,440 Speaker 1: invest in Michigan instead of Mexico. And so I don't 411 00:22:20,520 --> 00:22:22,760 Speaker 1: think you're going to see that change. I think what's 412 00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:25,560 Speaker 1: really gonna be at the center of any negotiations are 413 00:22:25,560 --> 00:22:28,080 Speaker 1: the pay force. You know, I think the rates are 414 00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:30,439 Speaker 1: pretty much set where they're going to be. It's just 415 00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:33,280 Speaker 1: now everyone's going to hash out as you said, you know, 416 00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:35,879 Speaker 1: um special interest groups coming up and say no, we 417 00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:38,120 Speaker 1: need our mortgage interest deduction, we need our full real 418 00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:40,520 Speaker 1: estate tax deduction, we need deductions for state and local 419 00:22:40,520 --> 00:22:43,119 Speaker 1: income taxes, and then the banks are gonna not be 420 00:22:43,240 --> 00:22:46,240 Speaker 1: pleased at business is losing interests, expense deductions, and that's 421 00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:48,080 Speaker 1: where the battle is going to be waged. And the 422 00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:50,679 Speaker 1: pay force when you do tax reform, cutting rates is 423 00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:53,280 Speaker 1: the easy part, right, it's paying for those rate cuts 424 00:22:53,320 --> 00:22:55,399 Speaker 1: that proved problematic. And I don't think this scenario is 425 00:22:55,440 --> 00:22:59,359 Speaker 1: going to be any different. Use assiliation of votes forces, 426 00:22:59,480 --> 00:23:01,640 Speaker 1: tax cuts just coming. Have you guys just been getting 427 00:23:01,640 --> 00:23:05,240 Speaker 1: a flood of calls, look coming in, look coming in frantic. 428 00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:08,760 Speaker 1: Oh my god, this changes my entire business. Thank you 429 00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:11,040 Speaker 1: so much for joining us, as well as for hosting 430 00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:13,880 Speaker 1: as David Springsteen partner ahead of the Tax Department at 431 00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,600 Speaker 1: with him, as well as Tony and Nitty tax partner 432 00:23:16,640 --> 00:23:19,480 Speaker 1: for with them in Colorado. And they both are here 433 00:23:19,560 --> 00:23:22,760 Speaker 1: at wham's fifth Annual Global Summit in New York City. 434 00:23:23,119 --> 00:23:25,439 Speaker 1: They probably had planned to talk about other things, but 435 00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:31,919 Speaker 1: today it is all tax plan, all the time. Thanks 436 00:23:31,920 --> 00:23:34,560 Speaker 1: for listening to the Bloomberg P and L podcast. You 437 00:23:34,600 --> 00:23:38,359 Speaker 1: can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, 438 00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:41,960 Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. I'm pim Fox. I'm 439 00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:45,520 Speaker 1: on Twitter at pim Fox. I'm on Twitter at Lisa 440 00:23:45,600 --> 00:23:48,520 Speaker 1: Abramo wits one. Before the podcast, you can always catch 441 00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:50,320 Speaker 1: us worldwide on Bloomberg Radio