Speaker 1: Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of I Heart Radio.
Speaker 1: Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from I Heart Radio,
Speaker 1: your weekly source for the nation's best fantasy speculation and
Speaker 1: advice Leagues dot Com. Here's your host, Welcome to the show.
Speaker 1: It is episode number four, season number twenty six of
Speaker 1: Fantasy Football Weekly. I am Paul Churchy and my co
Speaker 1: host today are Brian Johnson Guillotine Leagues dot Com and
Speaker 1: Matt Harrison, who has just spun up a brand new
Speaker 1: site called shock Fantasy dot Com. Yes, yes, we will
Speaker 1: get you ready. It's we're hitting drafting season, guys. I'm
Speaker 1: in the middle of four email drafts right now. I
Speaker 1: think it'd be three mail and one auction. It's you know,
Speaker 1: there's I would call it ultimate drafting season. It's kind
Speaker 1: of been drafting season for a while Simus in the industry. Yes,
Speaker 1: most people getting getting into it now. I think that's
Speaker 1: the first the first week where I feel like there's
Speaker 1: really a lot of momentum happening with fantasy drafts. Were
Speaker 1: here to get you ready in a wide variety of ways.
Speaker 1: We're gonna talk through some of the notes from training camps.
Speaker 1: We will take one of the deep dive data points
Speaker 1: that we usually only have at our in person live
Speaker 1: Fantasy football training camp, which this year is not happening.
Speaker 1: That so lucky you guys who didn't come to training camp. Ever,
Speaker 1: has there been a better spot for the sad trombon
Speaker 1: Sky than you know what it really is? It really
Speaker 1: is sad. Where hey keep that sad warm up? Today? Okay,
Speaker 1: good um, we will tell you about the the things
Speaker 1: that happened inside the five yard line that you need
Speaker 1: to know about. This is one of my favorite deep
Speaker 1: analytical dives. We're gonna touch on every single team and
Speaker 1: what they do inside the five and how that can
Speaker 1: benefit your fantasy team. We've got three tough questions. Well,
Speaker 1: identified the player as we like, but we hate their
Speaker 1: average draft position, so we never end up with them.
Speaker 1: And it's not that we just hate these guys, we
Speaker 1: just won't pay their price. It's like love the player,
Speaker 1: hate the game. It is kind of like that. Okay,
Speaker 1: And then at the end of the show, we'll have
Speaker 1: our sleepers and Matt Harrison will tell you how to
Speaker 1: capitalize on the first month of the season. I'm a
Speaker 1: big believer in fast starts. When you start three and one,
Speaker 1: four and oh, four and one, five and oh, you've
Speaker 1: got a lot of roster equity going and life becomes
Speaker 1: a whole lot easier. You can start transitioning even at
Speaker 1: that point already to some advanced thinking. So lots to
Speaker 1: get to over the course of the show. We begin
Speaker 1: with notes from almost every team around the league, and Matt.
Speaker 1: Let's start with the Panthers. Russell o'koung, who we talked
Speaker 1: about last week when we said he's considering retirement due
Speaker 1: to COVID. He's still not playing in camp because he's
Speaker 1: dealing with some back issues as well. So something's lingering
Speaker 1: stuff with o'koung, and it's looking more and more likely
Speaker 1: that he might not be ready for the beginning of
Speaker 1: the season or at all this year. You know, I'm
Speaker 1: so nervous about the Panthers offense in general that I'm
Speaker 1: having an increasingly hard time keeping Christian McCaffrey at pick
Speaker 1: one oh one. I'm going to ruin that for you
Speaker 1: in the schedule analysis part of the show, and I
Speaker 1: hope that's right. Uh, Brian, Let's go to the Las
Speaker 1: Vegas Raiders. Yeah, not going to Oakland out of Raiders camp.
Speaker 1: Brian Edwards looks to be the guy over Henry Ruggs,
Speaker 1: who was the first overall wide receiver taken in the draft.
Speaker 1: We called that a mistake when they made it. So yeah,
Speaker 1: Bryan Edwards, if you're in redraft, if you're targeting a
Speaker 1: rookie wide receiver, it's him, not Rugs and uh worth mentioning.
Speaker 1: The Raiders are one of three teams in the running
Speaker 1: for Jadeveon Clowney, the Titans and the Seahawks or the
Speaker 1: other two. And that's worth mentioning because if I got
Speaker 1: Raiders on my team, I don't want their defense getting
Speaker 1: any better. Well not if you have Josh Jacobs, because
Speaker 1: you don't want the negative game script. So the defense
Speaker 1: helped Josh terre point. Fair point there. But but they're
Speaker 1: they're they might land Clowney. That would be a big
Speaker 1: signing front who gets them in Green Bay? A. J.
Speaker 1: Dillon's the second round running back, drawing strong reviews. General
Speaker 1: manager Brian Gudkuns compared him to Eddie Lacy this week
Speaker 1: in a good way. Uh. Social media blew up with
Speaker 1: photos of his herculean legs. I think that was mostly
Speaker 1: due to the fact he was wearing Hooters shorts. They
Speaker 1: were they're tiny shorts have I think they're just tiny
Speaker 1: on him. Uh. Aaron Rodgers also noted that A. J.
Speaker 1: Dillon's skills are great, but he needs to get caught
Speaker 1: up on the playbook, which is pretty much true for
Speaker 1: Annie rookie and you know what for running backs, getting
Speaker 1: caught up on the playbook is not hard. That will happen.
Speaker 1: Let's go to Washington, Matt Bryce Love is getting reps
Speaker 1: with the first team. So is Dwayne Haskins. By the way,
Speaker 1: while Alex Smith returned to practice this week, he's not
Speaker 1: yet part of eleven on eleven drills Alex Smith as
Speaker 1: of yet, so Haskins still at the one team. But
Speaker 1: Bryce Love is an interesting guy to keep kind of
Speaker 1: on your cheek sheet. Put a little bullet next to him.
Speaker 1: As Adrian Peterson ever taken a first team trading camp,
Speaker 1: trading camp never and it never matters, by the way,
Speaker 1: it was always ready to go. Someone will make any
Speaker 1: difference here either. Let's go to Buffalo. Brian the Athletics
Speaker 1: Bills beat reporter Joe Paglia believes Zack Moss's role as
Speaker 1: being under sold and head coach Sean McDermott's already praising
Speaker 1: the past protection skills of Zack Moss. Now, some of
Speaker 1: you that have been listening to this show and our
Speaker 1: podcast going back months have been hearing me to Zack Moss.
Speaker 1: The rest of the world just now starting to catch up.
Speaker 1: If you want Zack Moss, you can't rely on old
Speaker 1: adp He's going earlier and earlier. In drafts I held
Speaker 1: this past week, he went in pick with picks seven
Speaker 1: and eight in the first round in different draftskie draft.
Speaker 1: You cook him from one of the over cam akers
Speaker 1: and it was, by the way, is the happy trombone
Speaker 1: like the precursor to the peacock? Like you haven't quite
Speaker 1: You don't have the results yet to so you can
Speaker 1: happy trombone. It looks it still looks good. The Texans,
Speaker 1: and updating a story from last week's segment, Kenny Stills
Speaker 1: is now active in practicing. He's still the fourth wide
Speaker 1: receiver in the pecking order, though Deshaun Watson, while we're
Speaker 1: speaking of the receivers, says that Will Fuller is quote
Speaker 1: going to ball out. M hm. That's good. Coach Bill
Speaker 1: O'Brien says, Will Filler quote looks as good as he's
Speaker 1: ever looked. Now, a lot of those words generally don't
Speaker 1: mean anything when they actually get to this point, you know,
Speaker 1: actually start the season. But we, as we've talked about before,
Speaker 1: if you give me sixteen games and Will Fuller, we're
Speaker 1: talking about guy who could easily be a top ten
Speaker 1: ish wide receiver share. That's the kind of upside we get.
Speaker 1: Let's go to Tampa Bay. Matt offensive tackle Tristan Worth's
Speaker 1: has struggled mightily with the first team in practice so far. However,
Speaker 1: the real news, the Tampa Bay Bucks official website is
Speaker 1: saying the standout at camp is Ronald Jones. It's happening.
Speaker 1: I think, uh, I think Ronald Jones. It's I think
Speaker 1: there's no doubt, at least based on we know right now.
Speaker 1: Ronald Jones is the back to half, which we as
Speaker 1: we've discussed before. It all sounds good until his abysmal
Speaker 1: pass block it gets Tom Brady killed, and then they
Speaker 1: got to make a change. Brian. Let's go to Cleveland.
Speaker 1: So Nick Chubb suffered a concussion. I don't recall many
Speaker 1: training campncussions ever, but he's in concussion protocol right now.
Speaker 1: It should be good for a week one and a
Speaker 1: couple quote unquote should be ready for Week one guys
Speaker 1: that are very fantasy relevant or Jarvis hand Uh Landry
Speaker 1: with a hip injury and starting center j C. Trader
Speaker 1: with a knee injury. So the one guy who is
Speaker 1: ready for Week one right now or appears to be
Speaker 1: as O b J who looks pretty good. Classic, but yeah,
Speaker 1: we had a monitor Chub Landry and j C. Tredder.
Speaker 1: Of course you want your starting center healthy for the
Speaker 1: start of Week one. In Kansas City, when Clyde Edwards
Speaker 1: Hlaire had to miss a day practice this week, it
Speaker 1: was Darryl Williams who got the first team reps. It
Speaker 1: was not DeAndre Washington. And this is an evolving battle
Speaker 1: that will will be worth watching throughout the preseason because
Speaker 1: that could be a potentially very valuable handcuff for Clyde Edwards. Lair,
Speaker 1: Let's go to Detroit. Matt I saw a headline on
Speaker 1: ESPN that said, carry on Johnson not dealing with injury. Yeah,
Speaker 1: but he's not getting a ton of work in practice either,
Speaker 1: And Matt Patricia said that was planned, which means he's
Speaker 1: the second team player right now. It's DeAndre Swift DeAndre
Speaker 1: Swift is going too late in draft. That guy, he's
Speaker 1: so much better than carry On Johnson, so much healthier.
Speaker 1: He's going to get the vast majority of the work there,
Speaker 1: I believe, Brian. Let's go to the New York Jets.
Speaker 1: Rookie wide receiver Denzel Mims, who was slated to start
Speaker 1: on the outside opposite of Brashad Perriman, still sideline with
Speaker 1: a hamstring injury. Breshad Perriman pretty much unproven to me
Speaker 1: still and most people, so. I like Jameson Crowder even more.
Speaker 1: I've touted him here multiple times, averaged eight targets. With
Speaker 1: a healthy Sam Donald, He's gonna be a PPR mon
Speaker 1: certain Chris Herndon is lining up as a slot receiver,
Speaker 1: outside receiver and tight end right now. I don't have
Speaker 1: like any Chris Herndon right now in any of my
Speaker 1: league's I'm kind of sad about it because not even
Speaker 1: in your tight end only league, not even in my
Speaker 1: tight end only league. Auction the league by the way,
Speaker 1: with the big boys play. Let's go to the Rams.
Speaker 1: Josh Reynolds wide receivers all but locked up the third
Speaker 1: receiver job over rookie Van Jefferson. The Rams play a
Speaker 1: lot of three receiver sets, and Reynold's gonna get a
Speaker 1: lot of playing time. Currently going off the board as
Speaker 1: wide receiver eighty three, and he's walking into Brandon Cook's role.
Speaker 1: He's gonna run Brandon Cooks routes and he's wide receiver
Speaker 1: receiver eighty three for Josh Reynolds. Let's go to the
Speaker 1: Seattle Seahawks. Matt Um, you remember Philip Dorsett does a Seahawk.
Speaker 1: It's kind of weird, right, Yeah. Pete Carroll just said
Speaker 1: he's the fastest guy they've ever had in camp. Dang,
Speaker 1: and they have Tyler Lockett, who, by the way, is
Speaker 1: very fast like ever had ever Percy Harvin was pretty fast,
Speaker 1: he said, like Philip Dorset's the fastest guy ever. Well,
Speaker 1: it's fine, but if if he could, if you were
Speaker 1: fast and could catch, he'd still be on his original team,
Speaker 1: not his third. T K Metcalf, who like broke all
Speaker 1: the Combine records last year. Brian, Let's go to Denver.
Speaker 1: Broncos coach Vic Fangio said he anticipated both Melvin Gordon
Speaker 1: and Philip Lindsley quote playing enough where we don't really
Speaker 1: have to designate a starter. Great, Yeah, that's what we'll
Speaker 1: talk more about these guys when we go inside the
Speaker 1: five later on Vikings. IRV Smith tight end getting a
Speaker 1: lot of first team playing time and is expected to
Speaker 1: linep in the slot a lot more often. The Vikings
Speaker 1: run a lot of two tight end sets and so
Speaker 1: both he and Kyl Rudolf will be on the field
Speaker 1: together often. So it looks like there's an opportunity for
Speaker 1: Irv Smith to get some extra reps from what we
Speaker 1: saw last year, Matt, Let's go to Philadelphia. Miles Sanders
Speaker 1: considered weak. Too weak, That's not good with an undisclosed
Speaker 1: lower body injury. By the way, Boston Scott not Scott
Speaker 1: Fish at Boston Market. Uh, he's day to day with
Speaker 1: a lower body injury. Day to day is a little
Speaker 1: better than week to week. So Corey Clement opened the
Speaker 1: UH the practice yesterday is the first team runner with
Speaker 1: Elijah holy Field getting some first team reps to I
Speaker 1: didn't even think Elijah holy Field just canna end up
Speaker 1: in the league this year. Real deal holy Field Home,
Speaker 1: it happens for him. Brian Miami, Uh, take her pantsop
Speaker 1: charge stew beer. It appears to be the clear cut
Speaker 1: starter about it. I know that's great. Well, I think
Speaker 1: you should be the starter definitely too. It looks good
Speaker 1: though in camp. Sambiyah Fitzpatrick will start in Pittsburgh. It's
Speaker 1: positive reviews on Ben Roethlisberger's arm and his return. Remember
Speaker 1: he's thirty eight years old. It's coming up a major
Speaker 1: elbow surgery with three torn ligaments in the elbow, but
Speaker 1: people are noting good philosophy. Accuracy has been inconsistent, but
Speaker 1: people are saying that it looks like the old arm
Speaker 1: is there and it makes you wonder if maybe people
Speaker 1: are sleeping on this offense a little bit. And he
Speaker 1: finally conditioned in the off season too. It appears for
Speaker 1: the first time his career. How about that. Congrats, Let's
Speaker 1: go to Dallas. Head coach Mike McCarthy was asked by
Speaker 1: a member of the press, what's Tony Pollard's useage you
Speaker 1: gonna be this year? Mike mccarth he said, I won't
Speaker 1: discuss that because it's gonna be a lot. Yep. I'm
Speaker 1: telling you people, if it was nothing, he would say,
Speaker 1: Zeke's our guy. He didn't want to discuss. Listen, I'm
Speaker 1: telling you this is one of my biggest takes from
Speaker 1: this offseason. Tony Pollode role is going to improve a lot.
Speaker 1: We're going to negotiate an Empire League trade driving break here.
Speaker 1: I'm interested in that. Let's go to the Patriots. Brian
Speaker 1: Beat writer Mike Reese speculated that the team could deploy
Speaker 1: a quarterback rotation early in the season, and Belichick didn't
Speaker 1: rule it out. But Jared Sidama by all nursing bad. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and he's nursing a leg injury. Uh, and I expect
Speaker 1: to practice much on Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Cam's still going
Speaker 1: to get the job. But there's of course, it's New England,
Speaker 1: so they're muscling things up out there in San Francisco.
Speaker 1: Wide receiver Jalen Hurd went on went on I r
Speaker 1: with a torn a c L and of course, as
Speaker 1: you probably remember, Deebo Samuel nursing a foot injury as well,
Speaker 1: so Brandon I was gonna start. Trent Taylor and Dante
Speaker 1: Pettis are also getting first team reps, and that looks
Speaker 1: that might be your starting route for Week one for
Speaker 1: the forty Niners. Let's go to the New York Giants.
Speaker 1: You're in a league with kickers, Graham Gano just got
Speaker 1: signed and they released Chandler Catons. Oh that's it, foul.
Speaker 1: Let's go to the Titans. Uh. Corey Davis, who was
Speaker 1: on the publist, was quitted to practice on Monday. Running
Speaker 1: Back Darrington Evans rookie who should back up Derrick Henry
Speaker 1: has fumbled twice already, So just play Derrick Henry every down.
Speaker 1: And if they did, you b RB one overall in
Speaker 1: my mind, if you got like fifty six targets per year.
Speaker 1: And the tight ends coach loves John H. Smith Church, Yeah, baby, John,
Speaker 1: I can't. I can't quiet yet, but I can, Yeah
Speaker 1: Smith Baby? Oh, why is your hand inside your shirt?
Speaker 1: I need to hand you this roll of paper towels.
Speaker 1: That was quite the look. In Baltimore, the media is
Speaker 1: gushing over Mark Andrews. He's running through the second and
Speaker 1: third levels of a very good Ravens defense, healthier than
Speaker 1: last year, and with Hayden Hurst Atlanta. Everybody expects a
Speaker 1: another leap from Mark Andrews this year. He is my
Speaker 1: tight end number three, but I believe going off the
Speaker 1: board of tighten four or five in most drafts right now, Matt, Matt,
Speaker 1: Let's go to Atlanta. Really nice reports about Brian Hill
Speaker 1: and Cadre Allison. In practice, it seems like the Falcons
Speaker 1: are prepping their fan base for their backups to take
Speaker 1: over in the inevitable case that Todd Gurley is missing
Speaker 1: time now, which is going to happen. And we've got
Speaker 1: Ido Smith who's still in that mix as well. Bengals
Speaker 1: Brian uh starting cornerback Trey Wayne, who you might remember
Speaker 1: of your local Minnesota here, underwent surgery to report report
Speaker 1: repair a torn peck and is expected to miss most
Speaker 1: of so that hurts the defense and kind of helps
Speaker 1: the offense outside of Joe Mixon Matt We go to
Speaker 1: Arizona for the Cardinals. DeAndre Hopkins missed a handful of
Speaker 1: practices with a hamstring tweak, but he returned to the
Speaker 1: field yesterday. And for the Jaguars, Brian rich Hill Armstead
Speaker 1: activated from the COVID list, and he was a fifth
Speaker 1: round rookie last year at a temple and he showed
Speaker 1: some flashes and the this is worth mentioning because he
Speaker 1: could push Leonard four Net. Yes, Jacksonville is on their way.
Speaker 1: They're done with him essentially, so right kill Armstead is
Speaker 1: worth the late round flyer right now, right, Matt, Chicago
Speaker 1: Bears will round out your final team ready for the
Speaker 1: sounder chart. Nick Foles and Mitchell true Bisky are currently
Speaker 1: alternating days as the starter in camp. Cordarrell Patterson, by
Speaker 1: the way, is sitting in on running back meetings. This
Speaker 1: is his name. I'm telling you this is his best
Speaker 1: position is running back. There that with that running backs
Speaker 1: they've got, that's not you could be the best running
Speaker 1: back on roster. Might be Chicago's gonna have the number
Speaker 1: one pick next year, yes they are. The defense defense
Speaker 1: is not good enough? All right, Brian, you know, wrap
Speaker 1: up this lunacy of yours with the Chargers, please sort
Speaker 1: of such. Now that's a team, that's a team that
Speaker 1: could be, that could have the first pick. No not.
Speaker 1: Their defense is pretty good too. Justin Jackson looks locked
Speaker 1: into the back up running back role. We all love
Speaker 1: Austin Nichola, but keep your eye on Joshua Kelly. He's
Speaker 1: gonna usurp Jackson sooner than later. All right, there you go.
Speaker 1: We've gone around almost all thirty two teams. A couple
Speaker 1: of teams didn't have much worth mentioning, and so you
Speaker 1: know we care about your time and what actually matters
Speaker 1: if you want to play the freshest new format and
Speaker 1: fantasy football. It's called the Guillotine League. Seventeen teams start
Speaker 1: the season and each week the low scoring team gets
Speaker 1: eliminated and their entire roster goes to the waiver wire,
Speaker 1: where pandemonium ensues. If you'd like to play along, go
Speaker 1: to Guillotine leagues dot com. When we come back inside
Speaker 1: the five yard line, what's the one thing you need
Speaker 1: to know from every team inside the five yard line?
Speaker 1: And why it's so important for you to know? When
Speaker 1: we come back to Fantasy Football Weekly, Welcome back Fantasy
Speaker 1: Football Weekly. I am Paul Archie and my co host
Speaker 1: or Matt Harrison and Brian Johnson. Every year at our
Speaker 1: Fantasy Football training camp, a live event in Minneapolis, we
Speaker 1: unveil what every team's tendencies are inside the five and
Speaker 1: we should say them. Well, it's been my bit. Now
Speaker 1: you're passing the book. Now now you're making us do
Speaker 1: your word. What the heck? We're dividing up three ways.
Speaker 1: We're gonna talk about every team and what they do
Speaker 1: inside the five and why you should care? Well, why
Speaker 1: should you care? Number one? That's where touchdowns are scored
Speaker 1: and breaking news. Fantasy players like touchdowns. It's easy fantasy
Speaker 1: points from inside the five. This is where great fantasy
Speaker 1: players score, and they do so copiously inside the five. Now,
Speaker 1: if you're thinking to yourself, well, it's what about the
Speaker 1: other yards? Blah blah blah. Here's the thing. I want
Speaker 1: you to think of a number. How many touchdowns do
Speaker 1: you think we're scored from inside the five last year?
Speaker 1: To the infrared zone? You I kind of like infra
Speaker 1: red zone. I like that. How many touchdowns were scored
Speaker 1: inside the five? Put a number in your head? Nice?
Speaker 1: Do you believe it was more than one hundred more
Speaker 1: than two hundred three three hundred touchdowns from inside the
Speaker 1: five last year? No? The answer is five hundred four
Speaker 1: touchdowns were scored from inside the five yard line last
Speaker 1: year in the NFL? Five hundred four. Do you want
Speaker 1: a part of that on your fantasy team? As many
Speaker 1: as possible on your fantasy All of them? Yeah? Well
Speaker 1: all would be ideal. You'd have to a very large
Speaker 1: roster to capture all of them. So a lot of touchdowns.
Speaker 1: I wouldn't expect that many touchdowns. And the whole are
Speaker 1: you are you sure you didn't count all the touchdowns
Speaker 1: from all year five four touchdowns, which is more than Matt.
Speaker 1: Gonna breakdown every team, I want to know, you're gonna
Speaker 1: tell listeners the one thing that people need to know.
Speaker 1: We're gonna do each team. We're gonna start with Carolina
Speaker 1: From inside the five. No team threw more passes inside
Speaker 1: the five yard line than the Panthers last season with
Speaker 1: twenty eight. And you'd think it was Christian mccaffy. I
Speaker 1: would think it was he only had three targets inside
Speaker 1: the five. The infrared zone threat was Curtis Samuel seven targets.
Speaker 1: I don't remember that working out too well. Five reception touchdowns.
Speaker 1: On the year, he had four touchdowns from inside the
Speaker 1: infrared zone, which was tied for the most in the
Speaker 1: league for receptions for for touchdown receptions, yeah, very interesting,
Speaker 1: tied with Julio Jones and Zach ERT's. Nice job. I
Speaker 1: wouldn't have guess Julio Jones either because he scored a
Speaker 1: few times. You wouldn't nicely done, Brian, What do people
Speaker 1: need to know? Inside the five? From the Las Vegas Raiders,
Speaker 1: Josh Jacobs had the eighth most attempts inside the infrared,
Speaker 1: and he turned those into the fourth most yards last
Speaker 1: year and scored five touchdowns on his attempts. Now, if
Speaker 1: he can see attempts like the Big Boys, the mccaffery's,
Speaker 1: and the Mixings of the world, we're talking right up
Speaker 1: there one territory he he was, he was below them
Speaker 1: in his attempts. But if he can see those and
Speaker 1: what will be an improved offense. Most would think Josh
Speaker 1: Jacobs might be a round one pick that's going in
Speaker 1: round two. Raiders are a have one of the best
Speaker 1: offensive lines in football too, so they should be very
Speaker 1: effective there. And I'm glad you brought this up for
Speaker 1: people that aren't familiar with deep inside the five stuff.
Speaker 1: What you want from a good running back is right
Speaker 1: around a fifty percent conversion rate for touchdowns on these
Speaker 1: area's inside the five. You want to see ten carries,
Speaker 1: five touchdowns. That's what you're looking for in a for
Speaker 1: an effective goal line style back. Let's go to the Packers.
Speaker 1: Last year, Aaron Jones had the sixth most carries from
Speaker 1: inside the five, and he converted them for ten touchdowns,
Speaker 1: which was tied for the most in the league. So
Speaker 1: the question is what happens if a j Dillon gets
Speaker 1: half of that that workload, does that does that strip
Speaker 1: him of five touchdowns right there from last year and
Speaker 1: really drop him down maybe a whole round or two
Speaker 1: in production. And get this as a quick side note,
Speaker 1: the Green Bay wide receivers caught one pass all year
Speaker 1: from inside the five last season. Matt, Let's go to
Speaker 1: the Washington football team. Uh, they only scored eleven times
Speaker 1: from inside the five last year. That was bottom four
Speaker 1: in the league. And they only had twelve running back
Speaker 1: carries from inside the five. Adrian Peterson had seven of
Speaker 1: those and the other five went to guys who are
Speaker 1: no longer on the tape, so that's not touched to
Speaker 1: glean there. Peterson is probably gonna get the goal line work,
Speaker 1: probably so, Brian. Let's go to the Buffalo Bills. So
Speaker 1: last year Frank Gore oh was one of twelve Lord
Speaker 1: God mort uh it carries inside the five yard line.
Speaker 1: He's clearly gone sadly for the New Jersey Jets. He's
Speaker 1: a Jet. But all those carries are going to queue
Speaker 1: it up. Charge Zack Moss baby, yes, Zack Man can't wait.
Speaker 1: Devin Singletary needs to be such an afterthought at this point,
Speaker 1: he only had three carries inside the ten yard line
Speaker 1: last year. He's not touching the ball the money zone.
Speaker 1: It's all Zack moss Man and Josh Allen, of course,
Speaker 1: but more Zack moss and Josh. For the Texans, Deshaun
Speaker 1: Watson led the team in touchdowns from inside the five.
Speaker 1: This is rushing, by the way, rushing touchdowns and I
Speaker 1: had the five with five of them. Carlos Hyde had
Speaker 1: just nine carries inside the five last year. So how
Speaker 1: does that maybe translate to David Johnson. Well, last year
Speaker 1: David Johnson got six carries in the five for Arizona
Speaker 1: and converted them to just two touchdowns. But for I'll
Speaker 1: note for this in fairness to David Johnson for his career,
Speaker 1: he's a fifty percent conversion back, and again that's the
Speaker 1: number we're really looking for. So David Johnson will get
Speaker 1: those those Carlos hi to carries and more. Let's go
Speaker 1: to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I got a lot to
Speaker 1: chew on in this one. So Tampa was a top
Speaker 1: five running team from inside the five with twenty seven
Speaker 1: run plays called last year. So was the New England Patriots,
Speaker 1: who had thirty three run plays called inside the five.
Speaker 1: Bring that up because Tom Brady is now the quarterback
Speaker 1: in Tampa. Peyton Barber had ten of their carries, Dagnally
Speaker 1: had seven of those carries, and Ronald Jones only had
Speaker 1: four carries. So worrisome did they trust Roe Joe near
Speaker 1: the stripe? They should? All four of his carries went
Speaker 1: first scores. Okay, well, that's a good sign. Also, Mike
Speaker 1: Evans was second in the league with eight infrared zone targets.
Speaker 1: That seems good until you realize that Tom Brady he
Speaker 1: was an awful thrower from inside the five. He went
Speaker 1: four for twenty with only two touchdowns last year inside
Speaker 1: the five. Let's go to the Cleveland Browns. Brian, Yeah,
Speaker 1: this is glaring. Nick Chubb fifteen attempts inside the five
Speaker 1: for negative fourteen yards last year and just two touchdown. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I don't get it. I just you know the line
Speaker 1: was banged up and it is revamped. I mentioned J. C.
Speaker 1: Treader the starting center might not go week one, he
Speaker 1: should go. But Cream Hunt had one carry inside the
Speaker 1: five convert into a three yard touchdown. Uh. We'll talk
Speaker 1: a little more about Chubb and Hunt later, but it
Speaker 1: seems like hunting needs a little more work inside the five. Yeah, maybe,
Speaker 1: so you know, keep in mind they put a first
Speaker 1: round pick in an early first round pick at left
Speaker 1: tackle of Jack Conklin is a right tackle, so the
Speaker 1: line is improved. The efficacy of that line and inside
Speaker 1: the five should be very good reminder. We're talking about
Speaker 1: the one thing you need to know for each team
Speaker 1: inside the five yard line. For the Colts, head coach
Speaker 1: Frank Wright didn't mind using a lot of runners inside
Speaker 1: the five, which may end up frustrating fantasy owners a end.
Speaker 1: Last year, mac Hines, Williams, and Wilkins all got carries,
Speaker 1: and even Jacoby percented five carries. And Jacoby percent is
Speaker 1: not the most mobile fleet of foot quarterback. Yeah, but
Speaker 1: he didn't have Jonathan Taylor last year. He did not,
Speaker 1: But I still think it goes to show where some
Speaker 1: of his predilections lie. Let's go to the Detroit Lions.
Speaker 1: Man Marvin Jones had two touchdowns from inside the five
Speaker 1: in one game against Minnesota last year, and that was
Speaker 1: the most exciting thing the Lions did from inside the five.
Speaker 1: They're super boring. Carry On had ten carries and scored
Speaker 1: only three times and he was their most utilized player
Speaker 1: inside the five. The second most touches went to Wes
Speaker 1: hillis not Peyton hillis No, Who's west hillis? I don't know, Okay,
Speaker 1: some guy who got five carries from inside the five
Speaker 1: last year for the Lions. Let's move on to the Jets. Uh.
Speaker 1: They were dead last in red zone scoring attempts per
Speaker 1: game at two point one and that's from the twenty
Speaker 1: inn so from the five and end there wasn't a
Speaker 1: lot of action for the Jets. They were dead last
Speaker 1: in Russia attempts sinside the five with nine rushes. That's
Speaker 1: nine times they ran the ball in So Levy on
Speaker 1: Bell just feels like fool's gold to me at this point.
Speaker 1: Kansas City's last. For Kansas City last year, Lashawn McCoy
Speaker 1: and Darryl Williams, not Damien Williams. Darryl Williams led the
Speaker 1: team in rushes inside the five with thirteen of them.
Speaker 1: Those are all up for grabs this year in my mind.
Speaker 1: And oddly, get this, the Chiefs tied for the fewest
Speaker 1: touchdown passes from inside the five, which I guess is
Speaker 1: just because Patrick Mahomes scores from farther away. Than does.
Speaker 1: I imagine that's part of it. But back to the
Speaker 1: running backs just for a minute. This might be another
Speaker 1: indication that Darry Williams got some sneaky value that maybe
Speaker 1: most people don't realize. Let's go to the Seattle Seahawks.
Speaker 1: The Seahawks were very balanced inside the infrared zone. Eight
Speaker 1: rushing touchdowns with Chris Carson getting five of them on
Speaker 1: nine carries. Eight passing touchdowns, with no player having more
Speaker 1: than two. So the combo of Jacob Hollister, will dis
Speaker 1: Lee and linebacker Nick Blore, they combined for half of
Speaker 1: the receiving touchdowns. Those canna all go to Greg Olsen.
Speaker 1: This year for the Denver Broncos, what are they doing
Speaker 1: inside the five? This is probably the most split backfield
Speaker 1: in the NFL right now, the toughest one to peg um.
Speaker 1: Philip Lindsay was great inside the five last year, eight
Speaker 1: carries fourteen yards for five touchdowns, and people think he's
Speaker 1: just this tiny scat back like he's Trek Cohen and
Speaker 1: he's not. And then Melvin Gordon, of course with the
Speaker 1: Chargers last year, who held out for the first four games,
Speaker 1: he ended up with the fifth most carries inside the five.
Speaker 1: With thirteen and his fifteen yards inside the five was
Speaker 1: third most, so he was very effective as well. So
Speaker 1: what it boils down to is you take the cheaper
Speaker 1: guy in Philip Lindsay and ADP. But this is like
Speaker 1: the most split down the middle backfield in the NFL
Speaker 1: going into the season. In my opinion, Philip Lindsay's going
Speaker 1: dirt cheap and a lot cheap. Too cheap. You know,
Speaker 1: two years ago he was sensational, last year he was Matt.
Speaker 1: I think people are I think for where he's where
Speaker 1: he's going. It's too late, all right. Let's go to
Speaker 1: the last Angelist rams who scored the most rushing touchdowns
Speaker 1: from inside the five fifteen of them. Todd Gurley led
Speaker 1: the team by a wide margin, fifteen carries for eight
Speaker 1: touchdowns in this year. All of those carries go to
Speaker 1: my guy, Malcolm Brown. Alcolm Brown had eight carries four
Speaker 1: five touchdowns last year. Malcolm Brown could be your sneaky
Speaker 1: goal line back for the team that had the most
Speaker 1: rushing touchdowns from inside the five last year. Take me
Speaker 1: Town Cantalons another late round sleeper running back, uh Matt
Speaker 1: Our final team of this segment where there's a two
Speaker 1: segment deal inside the five? What does Philadelphia do inside
Speaker 1: the five? The Eagles had twenty five touchdowns from the
Speaker 1: infrared zone, that was the most in the league last year,
Speaker 1: And while Jordan Howard led the team on the ground
Speaker 1: with five touchdowns on ten carries, don't necessarily think that
Speaker 1: all goes to Miles Sanders. This year, Sanders converted six
Speaker 1: carries for only two scores, while five ft six, two
Speaker 1: hundred three pound Boston Scott converted all four series inside
Speaker 1: the five. First time, I guess that he's the goal
Speaker 1: line back Boston Scott. Maybe I don't, man, I'd have
Speaker 1: to believe it. I'd have to see it to believe it. Well,
Speaker 1: we saw it four times last year. It doesn't seem
Speaker 1: likely that that's the case, but maybe so. If you'd
Speaker 1: like to get my cheat sheet with all my player rankings,
Speaker 1: including some of these sleeper players were talking about, go
Speaker 1: to Guillotine league dot com. My cheet available for free
Speaker 1: Guillotine leagues dot com. When we came back the other
Speaker 1: half of the NFL, what do they do inside the five?
Speaker 1: And what are the tendencies and sleeper guys you can identify?
Speaker 1: We all love touchdowns. We'll tell you how to find
Speaker 1: him when we come back. Welcome back Fantasy Football Weekly.
Speaker 1: Paul Charchi and Matt Harrison Bryan Johnson with you, breaking
Speaker 1: down what happens inside the five yard line last year,
Speaker 1: the total number of touchdowns scored inside the five five
Speaker 1: hundred four. It matters to know what teams do inside
Speaker 1: the five yard line. We've already identified about half of
Speaker 1: the team's last segment this segment, let's carry on, beginning
Speaker 1: with the Miami Dolphins. Brian So the Dolphins only totaled
Speaker 1: sixteen rush attempts inside the five last year. Ryan Fitzpatrick
Speaker 1: was second on the that's my guy, Calen Blage. I'm
Speaker 1: not so sure if Bellage is still on the team,
Speaker 1: But of course there are new faces here with Jordan
Speaker 1: Howard and Matt Brita. But if you're looking for running
Speaker 1: back action inside the five yard line, look at other teams.
Speaker 1: Basically well, based on what we've seen so far, Yeah,
Speaker 1: Jordan Howard's tempting. I would lean Howard over Brita if
Speaker 1: I was picking one, just because he seems to be
Speaker 1: the guy inside the five. He's built for it is
Speaker 1: sneaky PPR guy. Though Vikings led the NFL, and handoffs
Speaker 1: inside the five last year led the NFL thirty four
Speaker 1: of them, also, by the way, known as double what
Speaker 1: Miami had for handoffs inside the five. Dalvin Cook lad
Speaker 1: all runners with twenty one carries and his nine touchdowns
Speaker 1: were third most. We do not expect that to change
Speaker 1: in either front. Let's go to the Dallas Cowboys. Zeke
Speaker 1: scored ten times on eighteen carries inside the five. That's
Speaker 1: an excellent production. It is uh no Dallas pass catcher
Speaker 1: had more than one target in the infrared zone except
Speaker 1: Jason Witten, who only had four. Dallas only ran eleven
Speaker 1: pass plays inside the five. Let's go to the Saints.
Speaker 1: Two years ago, selling Sean Payton handed the ball to
Speaker 1: his runners thirty times inside the five. That was two
Speaker 1: years ago. Last year twelve carries inside the five. That's it.
Speaker 1: And Camara got eight carries. Mury Murray got just four.
Speaker 1: And they combined from the five touchdowns and the year
Speaker 1: before that, they run for twenty one times. I think
Speaker 1: at Sean Payton probably views last I think that was
Speaker 1: that was an unusual event last year, and I think
Speaker 1: those carries probably do end up coming back. Brian, Let's
Speaker 1: go to the Patriots. The Patriots were second in running
Speaker 1: back handoffs inside the five last year and ranked first
Speaker 1: and rushes overall over the past three years. But who's
Speaker 1: gonna get him? Sony Michelle, Lamar Miller. Here's it's not
Speaker 1: It's not Lamar Miller. That's what we know for sure
Speaker 1: is it's what what if James White is a cow
Speaker 1: this year? What if James White is a bell cow?
Speaker 1: What if he just carries that team? He's thirty two
Speaker 1: years old. We know what his role is. What if
Speaker 1: he is What's that's absurd? Lamar Miller is the best
Speaker 1: running back on that team right now. Okay, he's still
Speaker 1: hanging on to Lamar Miller like you're hanging on to
Speaker 1: Ryan Matthews. You guys understand how offensive line works. Matt
Speaker 1: Let's go to the Giants. Say Kwan Barkley one a
Speaker 1: bottom eight rushing attempts inside the five last year, one touchdown. Yeah,
Speaker 1: he wasn't right. The prior year eighteen carries only six touchdowns.
Speaker 1: So in two years, twenty seven percent conversion race, it's
Speaker 1: not possible. He's a bad goal line back. Meanwhile, Wayne
Speaker 1: Gallman seven carries for three touchdowns over the last two years.
Speaker 1: Is Wayne Gallman a better running back than say quant No,
Speaker 1: but he might be a better goal line back than
Speaker 1: say Kwan Berkley. God, that would be a kick in
Speaker 1: the shorts. Off it turns out he's just start getting
Speaker 1: goal line carries to Wayne Gahlman. Don't do it. Let's
Speaker 1: go to the Titans, Bryant. The Titans have the second
Speaker 1: fewest pass attempts inside the understandably with Derrick Henry. But
Speaker 1: but but you don't have to. They have weapons like
Speaker 1: A J. Brown and John Smith. John Smith. We'll talk
Speaker 1: about gas a little bit, all right if we must,
Speaker 1: but understandably so. But it's gonna be a fun team
Speaker 1: to watch Tennessee watch out. I hear they were good
Speaker 1: last year. Yeah they had. They beat a pretty good
Speaker 1: Baltimore team, I think, and pretty good Patriots team. The
Speaker 1: Steelers were as bad as any team running inside the
Speaker 1: five last year. No runner had more than five carries
Speaker 1: and none had more than two touchdowns. That's it. Interesting
Speaker 1: note here Benny Snell had every Steelers carry inside the
Speaker 1: five in from in the month of December last year,
Speaker 1: so they by the end of the year, and part
Speaker 1: it was probably due to injury but at the end
Speaker 1: of the year they had gone to Benny Snell inside
Speaker 1: the five. I think that's could be a trend we'll
Speaker 1: find out. Let's go to the Atlanta Falcons. Man. They
Speaker 1: only ran twenty seven total plays from inside the five
Speaker 1: last year. That was fifth fewest in the league. Julio
Speaker 1: Jones had four targets, converted all of them to touchdowns. Hey,
Speaker 1: let's do that some more. Yeah. By the way, Cadrey
Speaker 1: Allison was their goal line back last year. He had
Speaker 1: the most carries six carries, he had four touchdowns. Both
Speaker 1: led the team. So if Todd Gurley, who's a notoriously
Speaker 1: good goal line back, yes, if he goes down, Cadrea
Speaker 1: Allison might be kind of the sneaky running back to
Speaker 1: play of the Falcons running backs. You know, I've tried
Speaker 1: playing this game about which Falcon do you want to
Speaker 1: go get behind Todd Gurley because Gurly's You're never gonna
Speaker 1: have a big workload and the threat of injury is
Speaker 1: very real. I just I don't think there's a clear
Speaker 1: number two. I think I think the scenario is if
Speaker 1: Gurley is out, Cadrey Allison, at least you know he's
Speaker 1: going to get the goal line mark probably probably, but
Speaker 1: you know Smith was out for most of last year too,
Speaker 1: and it had he been there, may would have been him.
Speaker 1: I don't know. Let's go just a throat to Hayden Hurst, Brian.
Speaker 1: Let's go to your team, the Bengals, My team, the
Speaker 1: Bengals Joe Mixon. We will first off, we mentioned the
Speaker 1: conversion rate for touchdowns. Is that the five kind of
Speaker 1: the barometer we'd like to see. Mixon's five touchdowns on
Speaker 1: eight team carries don't quite fit that criteria. He did
Speaker 1: not thrive last year, and I think those opportunities go
Speaker 1: down if a j Green can stay healthy. He was
Speaker 1: in the Tory target hog deep in the red zone
Speaker 1: in his prime, and he's still got some gas in
Speaker 1: the tank. So the little ding on mixing, but not
Speaker 1: not not a lot, a lot. Okay, let's go to
Speaker 1: the forty Niners. Frustrating lead. Kyle Shanahan gave eight different
Speaker 1: players carries from inside the five. Kyle Jesus, Jesus, he
Speaker 1: got one, Kyle check got one. How about shannahanigans? That's
Speaker 1: what that is? Those are. Tevin Coleman led the team
Speaker 1: with nine, but he wasn't very effective with just three
Speaker 1: touchdowns on those carries inside the five. He also average
Speaker 1: point six yards per carry. Tevin Coleman did. I just
Speaker 1: don't think Coleman is very good, so I tend to
Speaker 1: have an anti Coleman bias here. But I'll note that
Speaker 1: Tevin Coleman was given two carries in the playoffs from
Speaker 1: inside the five and he scored twice, so he's probably
Speaker 1: the goal line guy. Yuck. All right, Let's go to
Speaker 1: the Cardinals. Matt the Cards through twenty eight passes inside
Speaker 1: the five. That was tied for most in the league.
Speaker 1: And that's why Larry Fitzgerald led the league infrared zone
Speaker 1: targets with ten. No other Cardinal lot had more than
Speaker 1: one target inside the five. So how did Larry not
Speaker 1: score more? Yeah, I don't know. She Also, Kenyan Drake
Speaker 1: scored six times on eight carries inside the five. He's
Speaker 1: pretty good in the red zone, infrared zone, I should say,
Speaker 1: as we like to say. Let's go to the Jacksonville Jaguars, Bryan.
Speaker 1: I'm sorry Leonard Fournette, but we gotta rag on you
Speaker 1: a little more minutes every every show. Eight carries for
Speaker 1: for net inside the five for negative two yards. Uh.
Speaker 1: He did have three touchdowns almost hit that mark, but
Speaker 1: those eight we're it for Jacksonville as a team. No
Speaker 1: other team had had a WOUN player carry the ball
Speaker 1: inside the five. It's all about the past for Jacksonville.
Speaker 1: It's Gardner, Minshew or bust. That's it. That is it again.
Speaker 1: We're talking about the things you need to know from
Speaker 1: every team when they're inside the five yard line, because
Speaker 1: that's where fantasy points come from. That's where the touchdowns
Speaker 1: are easiest, and the great fantasy players score from inside
Speaker 1: the five. We've got a final handful of team to
Speaker 1: talk through, including the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens ran the
Speaker 1: ball inside the five more than any team thirty five times.
Speaker 1: But I know what you're thinking. Lamar Jackson must have
Speaker 1: been the reason why. Uh, He's only siphoned off seven
Speaker 1: of the thirty five carries. The rest went to running
Speaker 1: backs Ravens. Still, even if you take out Lamar Jackson,
Speaker 1: the Ravens ran the fifth most rushes inside the five,
Speaker 1: even without the seven from Lamar Jackson. Mark Ingram had
Speaker 1: sixteen carries for eight touchdowns. Right at that mark. We
Speaker 1: want to see the guy who's brutal Gus Edwards eight tries,
Speaker 1: zero touchdowns. That tells me J. K. Dobbins will get
Speaker 1: those same eight carries and he'll convert them to more
Speaker 1: than zero touchdowns. Ingram is a must target for me
Speaker 1: and guillotine leagues right now. Soft early schedule and that
Speaker 1: kind of usage early on the season. Yeah, I like
Speaker 1: the way that sounds. Um. I know we're only doing
Speaker 1: one thing for every team, but I'll mention this. We
Speaker 1: have a little spare time here. Do you guys know
Speaker 1: which raven lead the team in targets from inside the five?
Speaker 1: I mean you think it's Mark Andrews since he scored
Speaker 1: a ton, correct, And it is not Mark Andrews, Okay
Speaker 1: aiden Hurst or Nick Boyle, Nick Boyle, Nick freaking boil
Speaker 1: and and he's still there. That's the package they use
Speaker 1: that Nick Boyle actually plays. That's right, that's the boiled package.
Speaker 1: I think I'd rather be boiled. Let's go to our
Speaker 1: final couple of teams. The Chicago Bears man David Montgomery
Speaker 1: had the third most carries in the league from inside
Speaker 1: the five. That's a lot for a guy who's not
Speaker 1: good at it. Yeah, he only converted five of them
Speaker 1: into touchdowns. That's the exact same amount as Joe Mixon
Speaker 1: um but they have no other option. And Mitchell true
Speaker 1: Bisky the sad trombone ski himself. He only completed seven
Speaker 1: passes inside the five last year. That's very sad trombone Ski. Yep,
Speaker 1: that's that sounds really sad. That's our guy right there.
Speaker 1: It's it's not a It's not a real competition, is it.
Speaker 1: It shouldn't been Nick Foles and Sky. It can't be.
Speaker 1: I believe our final team is the Los Angeles Chargers
Speaker 1: Black l a C. So take Melvin Gordon's fifteen attempts
Speaker 1: inside the five last year, add them to Austin Ekelers
Speaker 1: already existing nine nine times for Ekeler inside the five.
Speaker 1: But no, that's that's my fault. I was slow. It's okay.
Speaker 1: I wasn't expecting to pull that off the cuff. But
Speaker 1: that's a lot of usage inside the five yard line.
Speaker 1: And of course, no more Melvin Gordon. So Austin Ekeler,
Speaker 1: We've said it here before, RB his potential, his name
Speaker 1: may come up again later in this show is his
Speaker 1: name will for sure come up in the next segment.
Speaker 1: How did we get through an entire segment? Of inside
Speaker 1: the five talk without vulture, the fantasy vulture. It's been
Speaker 1: so long we have missed you, fantasy vulture. Have I?
Speaker 1: I have I missed the fantasy. Never of the birds
Speaker 1: in the fantasy community, the peacock is it's the preferred
Speaker 1: we do. We have. We prefer the peacock because it's
Speaker 1: usually good things have happened for us. But how about
Speaker 1: a little a J. Dillon. There you go, Dillon Fantasy
Speaker 1: vulture time could very well be the case. Um, while
Speaker 1: we're talking inside the five and refreshed listeners, memory Brian,
Speaker 1: which team has run the ball more than any other
Speaker 1: over the last three years? The New England Patriots, the Pats.
Speaker 1: The highest drafted Patriots running back is James White. We
Speaker 1: don't believe James White's gonna get those carries. After that,
Speaker 1: it falls all the way to Sony Michelle at pick
Speaker 1: one hundred eleven. Now, nobody has been harder on Sony
Speaker 1: Walkman than I have. But oh no, all you have
Speaker 1: to do if you're gonna get that many carries from
Speaker 1: inside the five, all you have to do is fall forward.
Speaker 1: For Pizze, Remember when you could fall forward and get
Speaker 1: three yards? That was your nine tall new Ball have
Speaker 1: a bunch of carries, Sony Michelle. Would you rather have
Speaker 1: Sony Michelle going off the board at one hundred eleven,
Speaker 1: knowing there's all these carries coming for Patriots runners or
Speaker 1: Damien Harris, who many people, many people believe could end
Speaker 1: up winning that job. There's a very notable and maybe
Speaker 1: and Harris is going off the board at one hundred.
Speaker 1: I'll take Lamar Miller. I will Lamar Miller's going off
Speaker 1: the board to pick two twenty four. I'm just gonna
Speaker 1: take James White. You can't take James I'm not gonna
Speaker 1: get gold. I'm not I'm not taking In all fairness,
Speaker 1: in the past, there was Tom Brady, right, and Cam
Speaker 1: Newton kind of been a vulture inside the five for
Speaker 1: his running backs in the past. So now Lashawn McCoy
Speaker 1: over his career switching gears. The Shawn McCoy over his
Speaker 1: career has been a major goal line factor. He was so,
Speaker 1: he was so with the Eagles, he was so with
Speaker 1: the Bills, and then even in Kansas City last year.
Speaker 1: Now is he a potential guy to muck up the
Speaker 1: works in Tampa? Lashawn McCoy, No, only if it's snowing.
Speaker 1: No one plays better than the snow. You know, I
Speaker 1: don't think it snows in Tampa a whole lot or
Speaker 1: anywhere else in the NFC South. If you're Bruce Arians
Speaker 1: and you're looking at Ronald Jones and a rookie and
Speaker 1: Keyshawn Vaughan and here is the veteran hands of Lashawn McCoy,
Speaker 1: I could be that could be a sneaky situation that
Speaker 1: could end up torpedoing some of the value for Ronald Jones.
Speaker 1: This conversation makes me uncomfortable. It's Dario, He's the guy
Speaker 1: to own in Dampa Bay. It might be maybe he's
Speaker 1: the new James White. Maybe that's James White South. We
Speaker 1: come back to Fantasy Football Weekly. Three tough questions you
Speaker 1: can play along see if you can go three and
Speaker 1: oh and if you want to try out a guillotine league,
Speaker 1: go to guillotine leagues dot Com. Play with seventeen other people.
Speaker 1: Try to be the last man standing when we cut
Speaker 1: a team every week of the season and send that
Speaker 1: team's roster the waiver wire, where you get too bid
Speaker 1: on an entire roster of players. Guillotine leagues dot Com.
Speaker 1: Paul Charchy and Brian Johnson Matt Harrison with you back
Speaker 1: in moments. It's three tough questions on Fantasy Football Weekly.
Speaker 1: This is where I Pepper my co host Brian Johnson
Speaker 1: and Matt Harrison with three tough questions. That's the name
Speaker 1: of the segment. You've got a dog name Pepper. Two.
Speaker 1: I also have a dog name. Well, yeah, that's that's
Speaker 1: a long story. So that's that's tricky. We won't get
Speaker 1: into it. Let's probably people probably don't want to hear
Speaker 1: about my dog. Um. Yes, these are three tough questions.
Speaker 1: We encourage you to play along. See if you can
Speaker 1: go three and oh with these tough question Number one
Speaker 1: this year, what is the viability of an auction strategy
Speaker 1: that refuses to bid more than on any player? Brian? Wait,
Speaker 1: you're letting Brian go first. Um, what's envision? We're working
Speaker 1: with a hundred dollar budget. That's the easiest math, at
Speaker 1: least for me. You're not spending any more than nine
Speaker 1: dollars on a player. Sounds about right, Brian. Um, so
Speaker 1: this sounds like a good strategy when it comes to quarterbacks,
Speaker 1: wide receivers and tight ends. This is like the deepest
Speaker 1: pool of players I can remember amongst those dudes. But man,
Speaker 1: there's not a lot of running backs out there, and
Speaker 1: you gotta get at least one stud Bell cow in
Speaker 1: your auction this year. And really I'm getting too and
Speaker 1: then just buying whatever I can because again, quarterbacks, wide
Speaker 1: receivers and tight ends are so deep. So but to
Speaker 1: land Christian McCaffrey even down to a Joe Mixing or
Speaker 1: Josh Jacobs, you're talking thirty bucks in an auction. So no,
Speaker 1: I I can't limit myself to uh cap per player
Speaker 1: in auctions this year. Okay, Matt should auction? Should auction?
Speaker 1: Is it a viable auction strategy to refuse a bit
Speaker 1: more for any player? I feel like I have a
Speaker 1: better chance of getting it right if I just agree
Speaker 1: with my co host who in front of me, because
Speaker 1: that's how it worked last week that week. I was
Speaker 1: not on the show last week. Yeah, okay, thanks um.
Speaker 1: On my Shock Fantasy Redraft cheat sheet, I only have
Speaker 1: thirteen running backs and five wide receivers that nineteen dollars
Speaker 1: or more than a cap. So if you're fine with
Speaker 1: going into are with running backs like Jonathan Taylor, who
Speaker 1: I like, Chris Carson Levy on Bell Leonard Fournett, David Johnson,
Speaker 1: Todd Gurley as your top running back options. Then you're okay,
Speaker 1: But personally, I'm not okay with that. I want at
Speaker 1: least two the running backs that are over that threshold.
Speaker 1: I'm fine going with under ninetent at every other position,
Speaker 1: but not for running back. Oh, there's so many good
Speaker 1: running backs. You guys are wrong. This is a perfect
Speaker 1: vival strategy. There are so many good running backs in
Speaker 1: that range. You identified some of them right there. I'm
Speaker 1: happy to go to war with those guys. I'll go
Speaker 1: to war with Rheem Mostert and James White and Leonard
Speaker 1: Fournette and of course to the opposite. Absolutely we can
Speaker 1: do that, and nineteen dollars goes a long way. At
Speaker 1: the other positions. At n I'm I'm looking at some
Speaker 1: good wide receivers. I'm looking at maybe a Chris Godwin
Speaker 1: or an A J. Brown or a Kenny Golladay. At
Speaker 1: nine percent, I can get star players and all I
Speaker 1: have to do is have second or second and a
Speaker 1: half tier runners. That's an easy trade off to make.
Speaker 1: It's the deepest draft I've ever seen, and you could
Speaker 1: absolutely perform a successful auction strategy that refused a bid
Speaker 1: more tough question Number two. If I told you a
Speaker 1: running back currently outside of the top ten by average
Speaker 1: draft position would finish number one in Fantasy points at
Speaker 1: his position, who would it be, Matt Well, you know,
Speaker 1: it's Austin Ekeler, who's currently the thirteenth running back off
Speaker 1: the board. And I gave you a bunch of stats
Speaker 1: about this over the last two weeks. But here's a
Speaker 1: couple of more that you might not have heard. Tyrod
Speaker 1: Taylor's career average depth of target is in the nines.
Speaker 1: When he was in Buffalo, LA, Shawn McCoy was seventh
Speaker 1: in the league and running back receptions and sixteen he
Speaker 1: was injured for most. Outside of CMCs otherworldly receiving stats,
Speaker 1: Austin Ekeler had the second most targets in the league
Speaker 1: last season among running backs with a hundred and four,
Speaker 1: and Melvin Gordon had fifty two targets and those are
Speaker 1: vacated targets. Ekeler led the running backs in the league
Speaker 1: in forty plus yard receptions with three. He trailed McCaffrey
Speaker 1: by only twelve receiving yards, and he topped CMCs touchdown
Speaker 1: total with eight receiving touchdowns to McCaffrey's four. His average
Speaker 1: depth of target, by the way, was one point to one.
Speaker 1: His average yards per catch was ten point eight. Let
Speaker 1: that sink in for a little bit. That's very impressive.
Speaker 1: Austin Ekeler is your answer, Brian. If there's one running
Speaker 1: back currently outside of the top ten that's going to
Speaker 1: finish number one among all running backs, who is it?
Speaker 1: Ekeler certainly came to mind. Kenyan Drake was another guy.
Speaker 1: Josh Jacobs I like, but I'm just gonna go with
Speaker 1: Jonathan Taylor of the Colts, who who ranked uh seventh
Speaker 1: last year with a hundred and thirty three rushing yards
Speaker 1: per game with a very pedestrian Marlon Mack and then
Speaker 1: even Jonathan Williams late in the season. This is just
Speaker 1: the ideal landing spot for Taylor. If Mac wasn't a thing,
Speaker 1: Taylor would be a first round pick right now. You
Speaker 1: might be going before c e H and uh. Really,
Speaker 1: Taylor is gonna push Mac out of the picture sooner
Speaker 1: than later. And the Colts running backs have the number
Speaker 1: one strength of schedule for fantasy football. I mean the
Speaker 1: two games against the Jaguars alone, Taylor is gonna finished
Speaker 1: like RB on those numbers. So I'm feeling shades of
Speaker 1: Marshall Falk as a rookie as a cult my first
Speaker 1: year playing fantasy football. By the way, Marshall Falk is
Speaker 1: a rookie led me to a title, and that's what
Speaker 1: Jonathan Taylor is gonna do. The correct answer is Austin Neckler.
Speaker 1: Um Matt's already stolen so much thunder on Austin Neckler,
Speaker 1: not just this show, but also prior shows. But let
Speaker 1: me just remind people of his four games last year
Speaker 1: without Melvin Gordon. Week one one hundred sixty five yards,
Speaker 1: three touchdowns, eighteen total touches. We two frost to Neckler
Speaker 1: last year one hundred twenty three yards, a touchdown, twenty
Speaker 1: three touches. Week four, his bad game is eighty yards,
Speaker 1: no touchdowns and only sixteen touches. And then in Week four,
Speaker 1: the last game without Melvin Gordon, one twenty two total yards,
Speaker 1: two touchdowns and twenty three combo touches. If that's week
Speaker 1: got anything like that coming for Austin Ekeler, he will
Speaker 1: be the top scoring running back outside of the top ten.
Speaker 1: Tough question number three. If I told you a wide
Speaker 1: receiver currently outside of the top ten at his position
Speaker 1: would finish number one in fantasy points. It is this season?
Speaker 1: Who would it be? Brian Odell Beckham came to mind.
Speaker 1: Uh I said, there's a lot of competition for targets
Speaker 1: there um with Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper and then the
Speaker 1: two elite running backs also Allan Robinson I like, but
Speaker 1: those quarterbacks in Chicago are absolute trash. So I'm not
Speaker 1: liking a rob I'm going deeper and Matt no one
Speaker 1: can see him. We should take a picture. At least
Speaker 1: he's dressed like a blonde. Gardner minshore. I'll put the
Speaker 1: mustache onto alright, and Art can take I'll take a
Speaker 1: picture of this is this is thrilling radio of the mind.
Speaker 1: And Uh it's DJ. It's DJ Shark, who is going
Speaker 1: to be an absolute target. Hog could push two hundred
Speaker 1: targets if he stays healthy. And when he was healthy
Speaker 1: in weeks one through nine last season, he was wide
Speaker 1: receiver three overall. And again love Gardner mintrew the the
Speaker 1: third rated UH passer on passes of twenty plus yards
Speaker 1: last season. He can play and Jacksonville, is this gonna
Speaker 1: be chasing points all day long? Gonna pass the ball
Speaker 1: seventy at the time. So I'm going deep. DJ char
Speaker 1: all right, d J Chark. That's it's a quality angle
Speaker 1: for a team that's gonna be playing from behind all
Speaker 1: the time. Matt. If I told you a wide receiver
Speaker 1: currently outside the top ten would finish number one in
Speaker 1: Fantasy points at his position, who would it be? Well,
Speaker 1: Brian's not wrong, but he's a little wrong. Um, he's
Speaker 1: not wrong, He's just not right. It's A J. Brown,
Speaker 1: who uh currently the sixteenth wide receiver off the board.
Speaker 1: He finished eight in Fantasy points last year, and he
Speaker 1: only had eighty four targets. The players who finished better
Speaker 1: than him as a wide receiver last year averaged one
Speaker 1: hundred and thirty seven targets. So let's play the extrapolation game.
Speaker 1: I feel like we need some like game show music here,
Speaker 1: like extrapolation game. Yeah, here it is WHOA at the time?
Speaker 1: Machines as close as I've got. So let's give A J.
Speaker 1: Brown a hundred and thirty seven targets. At last year's averages,
Speaker 1: he'd come up with eighty five receptions seventeen hundred yards
Speaker 1: and thirteen touchdowns seventeen hundred yards would be very good.
Speaker 1: Michael Thomas finished with a hundred and forty nine receptions,
Speaker 1: seventy five yards and nine scores. So if you give
Speaker 1: A J. Brown the opportunity, he could definitely do it.
Speaker 1: So here's the thing that almost came out of my mouth.
Speaker 1: A J. Brown's no Michael Thomas, but you know what
Speaker 1: he might be might be Michael Thomas. I mean, you
Speaker 1: know he had an astounding rookie year. He might be
Speaker 1: Michael Thomas for all we know. But it's the wrong answer.
Speaker 1: You got the first one right, which is great. Cooper Cup,
Speaker 1: last year's wide receiver four, who for whatever reason, is
Speaker 1: going off the board as wide receiver fifteen. I'm baffled
Speaker 1: by this. So here he is last year wide receiver
Speaker 1: for in a bad year for Jared Goff. He was
Speaker 1: second last year in touchdowns among wide receivers. He was
Speaker 1: number one last year in red zone targets. So clearly
Speaker 1: they trust him near the stripe. But as we just
Speaker 1: talked about for the prior to segments, we love the
Speaker 1: easy touchdowns near the goal line. That's re replicatable. On
Speaker 1: old of this. For Cooper Cup, last year was his
Speaker 1: first year off a c L surgery. He's got room
Speaker 1: to be even better this year. Rams offensive lines improved
Speaker 1: Jared Off, who, to Matt's credit, he recognized a wobbly
Speaker 1: season as it was happening early in the year with
Speaker 1: Jared Goff. I think Golf without all the pressure of
Speaker 1: the new contract, has a better season, and Cooper cup
Speaker 1: could easily go from wide receiver four last year to
Speaker 1: wide receiver one this year. Or Goff's not good, I
Speaker 1: can't rule that out frankly at this point, but I
Speaker 1: think he's gonna be all right. I think he's gonna
Speaker 1: be okay. If you're starting a franchise right now, do
Speaker 1: you want Jared Goff or Gardner Minshew? The fact that
Speaker 1: you have to pause is not a good side. If
Speaker 1: I if I have to work the contract in to
Speaker 1: mens you for sure, but at the same cost it
Speaker 1: would be it would be Jared Goff. How when we
Speaker 1: come back players whom we like, we like the player
Speaker 1: we hate the average draft position. These are players we
Speaker 1: never end up drafting, but we still like them. Will
Speaker 1: identify one at every position and weekend Back to Fantasy
Speaker 1: Football Weekly. Welcome back to Fantasy Football Weekly. Paul Ciargie
Speaker 1: and from Guillotine leagues dot Com, Brian Johnson Guillotine Leagues
Speaker 1: dot Com, and Matt Harrison tell people what's happening at
Speaker 1: chock Fantasy Shock Fantasy cheat sheets, visuals, dashboards, everything you
Speaker 1: need for your fantasy league and your draft coming up.
Speaker 1: Uh twenty bucks for the full year if you use
Speaker 1: the promo code f f W. That stands for Fantasy
Speaker 1: Football Weekly and this is the last week for that
Speaker 1: promo code, so get in now, all right. These are
Speaker 1: players that we like, players we like, but players we
Speaker 1: never draft because we don't like the average draft position.
Speaker 1: So a little bit different than just wow, I never
Speaker 1: take that guy because he sucks. These are players who
Speaker 1: are good players, but just where they're going in drafts
Speaker 1: means we're not biting there. Matt, I would like I
Speaker 1: would like you to begin, oh thank you. At the
Speaker 1: quarterback position, who is the quarterback that you like but
Speaker 1: hate the adp Kyler Murray in the sixth round. And
Speaker 1: you can really put a bunch of names in this category,
Speaker 1: like Dak Russell, Wilson, Shaun Watson, because this is more
Speaker 1: of a philosophy thing. If you don't get Mahomes or
Speaker 1: you don't get Lamar Jackson, in the early rounds, you
Speaker 1: might as well wait. In ESPN scoring, Lamar Jackson scored
Speaker 1: almost eighty more points last year than the next quarterback,
Speaker 1: and Mahomes basically did the exact same thing in the
Speaker 1: prior year in both cases. After that, there's a large
Speaker 1: group of players in a really big tier together, so
Speaker 1: there's not much of a difference between number two and
Speaker 1: number fifteen on your list. So Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger,
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, and Josh Allen are all being
Speaker 1: drafted outside the top five quarterback acts and the top
Speaker 1: six rounds, but all have finished his top eight quarterbacks
Speaker 1: in just the last two years, so there's consistently really
Speaker 1: good quarterbacks to be had late. While Kyler Murray's trending up,
Speaker 1: he's not the runner that Lamar Jackson is and he
Speaker 1: never will be. And he's not the passer that Mahomes
Speaker 1: is and he never will be. And if you're not
Speaker 1: exceptional one of those two, you're probably not gonna outscore
Speaker 1: the rest of the quarterbacks by eighty points. Brian, who
Speaker 1: is the quarterback you like but hate the A D
Speaker 1: p uh. Those that know me might be shocked here.
Speaker 1: I like Daniel Jones from a fantasy perspective right now
Speaker 1: going off the board at quarterback twelve. But the opening
Speaker 1: four weeks are just absolutely brutal, brutal, brutal for Daniel,
Speaker 1: so I do not want to draft him. I'll trade
Speaker 1: for him later in the year. But he opens with Pittsburgh.
Speaker 1: We only allowed twenty three passing touchdowns last year. Six
Speaker 1: were in the first two games. That was before they
Speaker 1: acquired Minca Minca Fitzpatrick. And then they get the Bears
Speaker 1: only allowed seventeen passing touchdowns, then the forty Niners and
Speaker 1: the Rams Rams obviously acquired Jalen Ramsey uh midpoint of
Speaker 1: last season. That's just just an awful off stretch and
Speaker 1: I want no part of Daniel Jones as my starting
Speaker 1: quarterback for those for us four weeks, so I will
Speaker 1: not draft him, but I will trade for him later.
Speaker 1: I've got the player I like but hate the average
Speaker 1: draft position at quarterback is Dak Prescott, who I like
Speaker 1: very much. He's my number three ranked quarterback. I like him.
Speaker 1: They got weapons everywhere, including the new wide receiver Ceedee Lamb,
Speaker 1: breakout candidate tight end Blake Jarwin, and we talked about
Speaker 1: last week but he just to Matt's point, he doesn't
Speaker 1: have the Jackson Mahomes crazy upside, and I can get
Speaker 1: quarterbacks a lot like Dak Prescott a lot later like
Speaker 1: Matt Ryan, four rounds later. So I'm not taking Dak Prescott,
Speaker 1: even though I like him a lot. Matt. Let's go
Speaker 1: to the running back position. Who is the running back
Speaker 1: you like but hate the average draft position? It's Cam
Speaker 1: Akers in the fifth round and last week, Uh, Malcolm
Speaker 1: Brown is my sleeper the week because two things. Basically,
Speaker 1: the Rams run a ton inside the red zone and
Speaker 1: a ton inside the infrared zone, and Todd Gurley vacated
Speaker 1: a ton of those touches. But Malcolm Brown is really
Speaker 1: good with the touches. He had again eight carries from
Speaker 1: inside the five with five scores. So you're trying to
Speaker 1: trust a rookie running back who's a good player, you
Speaker 1: gotta take him in the fifth round. He's got a
Speaker 1: questionable goal line workload at best, and a backfield that
Speaker 1: is three or four deep. So I'm not taking Cam
Speaker 1: Akers at all. Alright, cam Akers, actually I like the player.
Speaker 1: I think it's just a bad landing spot for him
Speaker 1: right now. Okay, Brian who is the running back that
Speaker 1: you like but hate the average draft position. I really
Speaker 1: don't want to draft Nick Chubb this year, even though
Speaker 1: I love him as a player. Right now going around
Speaker 1: eleventh overall as r B eight. I've already harped on
Speaker 1: the red zone inefficiency from last year. That should improve
Speaker 1: with an improved line and probably some bad luck for
Speaker 1: Chub last year. But I just cannot get past the
Speaker 1: fact that I think Kareem hunt is better than Nick Chubb.
Speaker 1: Nick Chubb's elite, but Kareem Hunts just a little bit
Speaker 1: elite tour and uh, guys like going the same range,
Speaker 1: like Josh Jacobs, Kenyan Drake, Austin Ekeler, There's not that
Speaker 1: threat wooming behind of Kenyan Drake might have a sneaky threat.
Speaker 1: Chase Edmonds is a real threat. You're correct there, I
Speaker 1: retract that one. But that leads me into my guy.
Speaker 1: If I can transition to Kenyon Drake, who is the
Speaker 1: player I like but I hate his average draft position.
Speaker 1: He is going in the second round is running back
Speaker 1: nine good player? But does anybody think Kenyan Drake is
Speaker 1: a great player filled with highlight reel game breaking ability.
Speaker 1: In the mid second round, I can get Lamar Jackson
Speaker 1: or Tyreek Hiller Austin Ekeler, who are just simply better explosive,
Speaker 1: highlights style players. And then the whole Chase Edmonds thing.
Speaker 1: It really worries me. Cliff. This week, head coach Cliff
Speaker 1: Kingsbury said he's got two starting caliber runners. I don't
Speaker 1: want to hear that from about my second round pick.
Speaker 1: You kind of pooh pooed me last week on Chase
Speaker 1: Edmonds just a little bit. I think I was just
Speaker 1: in the mood to poop who you don't take. Okay, yeah,
Speaker 1: that was probably last week. Let's go to the wide
Speaker 1: receiver position, Matt who is the receiver you like but
Speaker 1: hate the average draft position. I'm staying with the same team.
Speaker 1: It's Robert Woods who you have to take in the
Speaker 1: fourth round. While the Rams passed at the seventh highest
Speaker 1: clip in the league last year, they were all very,
Speaker 1: very short, very safe throws. Jared Goff's average depth of
Speaker 1: target was eight point zero yards last year. That was
Speaker 1: twenty six in the league, lower than Mason Rudolph, Mitch Truebisky,
Speaker 1: Jacoby Brissette, Kyle Allen, and David Bloch. What about I
Speaker 1: think Duck's right in there, just has to be right
Speaker 1: in there. I think Duck was, Yeah, probably right in
Speaker 1: that range. Woods only scored three touchdowns last year, two
Speaker 1: through the air, one on the ground, so you'd think
Speaker 1: an uptick is do But the Rams don't throw deep
Speaker 1: and they don't throw the ball in the red zone.
Speaker 1: The Rams have been a top three team in red
Speaker 1: zone carries in each of Sean mcveigh's three seasons. Plus
Speaker 1: Robert Woods was targeted only nine times within the red zone,
Speaker 1: head only one target inside the five. Compare that to
Speaker 1: eighteen red zone targets for Cooper Cup and nineteen red
Speaker 1: zone targets for Tyler Higbee. There's no way you can
Speaker 1: take Bob Woods in the fourth I didn't realize that
Speaker 1: Tyler Higbey had so many targets. He's here, all right,
Speaker 1: that's good to know. I'm kind of you kind of
Speaker 1: sold me on on Woods. I I just figured just
Speaker 1: through just your regression, he'll get back to seven eight touchdowns.
Speaker 1: But maybe you're right, But looking at how many touchdowns
Speaker 1: he's scoring in the past, like six is like the
Speaker 1: high water mark. But that's that's your upside there, all right. Brian,
Speaker 1: who is the wide receiver you like but hate the
Speaker 1: average draft position. How can you not like DeAndre Hopkins
Speaker 1: but at wide receiver five going fourteenth overall, I hate
Speaker 1: the adp um Arizona wide receivers actually finished with the
Speaker 1: third most receptions as a whole last year, more than
Speaker 1: the Texans, So like, volume really isn't a concern there,
Speaker 1: and Hopkins isn't necessarily making the wide receiver room more crowded.
Speaker 1: He's essentially replacing demure Bird, who's now a Patriot. But
Speaker 1: there's just so much more talent around DeAndre Hopkins now
Speaker 1: than when he was in Houston, outside of quarterback of course.
Speaker 1: Um but that doesn't help hopkins case here. He's getting
Speaker 1: down graded quarterback from Murray to Deshaun Watson, and now
Speaker 1: he has an elite ish running back and Kenyan Drake
Speaker 1: and maybe Chase Edmunds behind him. Christian Kirk and Larry
Speaker 1: Fitzgerald will certainly command targets and oh yeah, dan Arnold.
Speaker 1: That's why don't draft any Cardinals except for think Dan
Speaker 1: Arnold is going to factor in end zone targets. You're delirious.
Speaker 1: DeAndre Hopkins is sure to disappoint, even though he is
Speaker 1: an awesome, awesome, football player, but avoid him into fantasy
Speaker 1: all right. Uh my, My receiver that I like but hate.
Speaker 1: The average draft position is Carolina wide receiver d J. Moore.
Speaker 1: Currently going off the board is wide receiver ten. I'm
Speaker 1: with you there. He is a good player with a
Speaker 1: lot of natural athletic ability who made a big jump
Speaker 1: forward last year despite the wobbly quarter backing of Kyle Allen.
Speaker 1: And I've heard this argument many times. If he can
Speaker 1: do with Kyle Allen, he can do with Teddy Bridgewater.
Speaker 1: But Kenny, and I'm really nervous about this Caroline offense,
Speaker 1: new coaches, new schemes, massive offensive line worries, and Teddy
Speaker 1: Bridgewater at the helm. We've repeatedly chronicled on this show.
Speaker 1: Bridgewater's many limitations as a downfield passer. He is a
Speaker 1: dump off passer, averaging the second fewest completed air yards
Speaker 1: last year and the fewest intended air yards. His receivers
Speaker 1: have to turn and they have to turn short catches
Speaker 1: into long touchdowns. That's not easy to do. It's asking
Speaker 1: a lot, and I think there's severe touchdown downside to
Speaker 1: all of the Panthers receivers because of what Teddy Bridgewater
Speaker 1: brings to the table and you look back through Teddy's
Speaker 1: box scores from when he started last season. The hundred
Speaker 1: seventy seventy yard game, the nine three yard game, the
Speaker 1: two hundred forty yard game, the one touch down to
Speaker 1: zero touchdowns. He's not an incapable quarterback, but he limits
Speaker 1: the upside of his receivers enough that I'm not paying
Speaker 1: third round value on d J. Moore. I'm with you.
Speaker 1: Let's go to the tight end position. Who is the
Speaker 1: tight end that that you like but hate the average
Speaker 1: draft position and thus never end up drafting bt Um.
Speaker 1: I like Evan Ingram, I don't like him in the
Speaker 1: seventh round. Evan Ingram has all of the abilities, like
Speaker 1: the ability to get hurt in, the ability to wear
Speaker 1: sweatpants two games, the ability to watch from home and
Speaker 1: the sidelines. What's most concerning is that there are other
Speaker 1: weapons that are better than him in the red zone
Speaker 1: on his own team. Sterling Shepherd, Golden Tate, and Darius
Speaker 1: Slayton all had better red zone numbers across the board,
Speaker 1: and each of them is really good at contested catches.
Speaker 1: Not to say Ingram is bad, but there's competition. He
Speaker 1: gets hurt a Ton. The schedule is not good to
Speaker 1: open the season. I'll highlight that in a bit. Well,
Speaker 1: Brian just did yeah, but yeah no, Evan ingram Um Brian.
Speaker 1: The tight end that you like but hate the average
Speaker 1: draft position, and thus never end up ending up with
Speaker 1: like nay love. Of course I love Darren Waller, yes
Speaker 1: you do. But right now at over pick sixty three
Speaker 1: overall at tight end five, I can't love Waller, who
Speaker 1: was tight end three in PPR leagues last year, led
Speaker 1: the Raiders with a hundred and seventeen targets, ninety catches
Speaker 1: and over eleven hundred yards. But remember Antonio Brown. Just
Speaker 1: remember Antonio Brown from last year. There were no wide
Speaker 1: receivers the Raiders, and now they have like eight, Yes,
Speaker 1: and Foster Moreau was already stealing red zone targets from Waller.
Speaker 1: Now Jason Witten is in toe uh tight end is
Speaker 1: this way too deep to reach for Waller this soon
Speaker 1: in draft? I'm sorry to say it. He is my
Speaker 1: number fifteen wide received our tight end, so obviously I'm
Speaker 1: not taking anywhere near his right now. The tight end
Speaker 1: that I love but hate the average draft position is
Speaker 1: zach Ertz, Who's going at the end of the third
Speaker 1: round beginning of the fourth round. His tight end three
Speaker 1: obviously an elite talent. And but if I'm spending an
Speaker 1: early round pick on tight end, it's not going to
Speaker 1: be the guy who's looking over his shoulder that I
Speaker 1: gotta worry about. George Kettle's one round more expensive and
Speaker 1: I get the focal point of an entire team's offense.
Speaker 1: Or alternately, I can wait one round and get Mark Andrews,
Speaker 1: who I like even better, and I've got rated one
Speaker 1: spot higher than zach Ertz. The last two years, zach
Speaker 1: Ertz has been very productive, in part because all the
Speaker 1: wide receivers have been hurt and they are again, and
Speaker 1: now they put that first rounder into Jalen reagor the
Speaker 1: other four receivers are returning, including Alston Jeffrey. At some point,
Speaker 1: I just for where he's going. He's a great town,
Speaker 1: zach ERT's awesome, but where he's being taken, I'm not.
Speaker 1: I am not biting on zach Ertz. If you'd like
Speaker 1: to try a Guillotine league, we encourage you to do so.
Speaker 1: You may know sixteen other people that want to play.
Speaker 1: You can go to Guillotine leagues dot com and join
Speaker 1: a private league and will run your league Guillotine League style.
Speaker 1: If you don't know sixteen other people and you want
Speaker 1: to just join a guillotine league, we have them for
Speaker 1: every price and prize point at guillotine leagues dot com.
Speaker 1: Again with the Guillotine League, seventeen teams start the season.
Speaker 1: Every week, the low scoring team gets cut and the
Speaker 1: entire roster goes the waiver wire where you get to
Speaker 1: bid on some poor guys entire draft. Super fun Guillotine
Speaker 1: Leagues dot com. More. Fantasy Football Weekly coming up next
Speaker 1: and is the final segment of episode four, season twenty
Speaker 1: six of Fantasy Football Weekly. Paul Charchion on Twitter at
Speaker 1: Paul Charchion, Brian Johnson on Twitter at b t x
Speaker 1: J like the annunciation, and Matt Harrison at Explosive Output
Speaker 1: on Twitter. We encourage you to follow us. Can also
Speaker 1: follow guieting leagues at g L Chop g L Chop
Speaker 1: for your guilleteaing league needs via Twitter as well. This
Speaker 1: final segment. We always release our sleepers near the end
Speaker 1: of the show. I have challenged Matt Harrison to provide
Speaker 1: us with data on the first month's schedule. Now Matt
Speaker 1: and as listeners. Regular listeners know I care so much
Speaker 1: more about the first month of the schedule than any
Speaker 1: other month because I want to get out to the
Speaker 1: fast start, because even if it's turns out, it's only
Speaker 1: for the month of September and my players are gonna
Speaker 1: peter he out eventually. I want to know I've got
Speaker 1: that option, I've got trade value because my players came
Speaker 1: out hot and I can trade away the guys that
Speaker 1: have performed. I want to start the season three and one,
Speaker 1: four and one, five and oh four and O. I
Speaker 1: want to start the season well, and that means I've
Speaker 1: asked you to help me with which teams have got
Speaker 1: the easy and hard starts to the season, both through
Speaker 1: the running game and the passing game. So the first
Speaker 1: thing I did is I use both the Football Outsiders
Speaker 1: d v o A and Fantasy Stats against the position
Speaker 1: to kind of tabulate a more accurate defensive profile of
Speaker 1: these defenses. Thank god, you fantabulated. Absolutely not in front
Speaker 1: of the kids, I hope, Nope, No, never in front
Speaker 1: of the kids. Then I made some really pretty spreadsheets
Speaker 1: with color coded stuff on all of them, and they're
Speaker 1: gonna be available at Chuck Fantasy promo code f f
Speaker 1: W gets you the year for twenty bucks. And um,
Speaker 1: I started with the quarterback and wide receiver and they
Speaker 1: kind of came out very similar this year. Um So
Speaker 1: I just grouped them all together and let's start with
Speaker 1: three easy starts and then I'll give you three tough starts.
Speaker 1: Easy start number one the Jacksonville Jaguars Gardner, Minshew, DJ Shark,
Speaker 1: d D Westbrook, Leavisca Channelt. Here's what they get Indie, Tennessee, Miami, Cincinnati,
Speaker 1: and Houston in the first five weeks. Every one of
Speaker 1: those defenses ranked in the bottom ten according to my metrics.
Speaker 1: Then they get Detroit in week six, who is also
Speaker 1: bottom ten, then a bye, and then their schedule gets
Speaker 1: absolutely insane. So if you can go roll with the
Speaker 1: Jaguars for the first six weeks, you're gonna look like
Speaker 1: a genius. Then trade them all well and I need
Speaker 1: I I will do that. Yeah, to me, that is
Speaker 1: a totally viable strategy. Can I interject real quick? You
Speaker 1: should call your metrics your matrics, thank you? Uh second team,
Speaker 1: You're ready ready for some ready some horn noises because
Speaker 1: it's Chicago horn. Nick Foles and Sad trombone. Ski, you
Speaker 1: know what trombone is a horn? Right? Well, oh that
Speaker 1: kind of horn. Yeah, cow Bell is not a horn charger.
Speaker 1: I was just looking for a car horn. I have
Speaker 1: a car horn here. So Nick Foles, Sad Drombone, Ski,
Speaker 1: Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller. They get Detroit, the Giants, Atlanta, Indie,
Speaker 1: and Tampa. All except Tampa ranked in the bottom ten.
Speaker 1: Tampa was just outside of that. Overall, the Bears have
Speaker 1: the easiest schedule on the season for passing in the
Speaker 1: league this year. It's once you get the full season in,
Speaker 1: it's not that big of a variance. They all kind
Speaker 1: of get close to average, but they have by the
Speaker 1: Matt tricks, they have the easiest get all right, and
Speaker 1: the third team with the easiest start for passers, uh,
Speaker 1: San Francisco. That's Jimmy g Brandon, Aiyuk, maybe Kendrick Borne,
Speaker 1: a guy like maybe Deebo Samuel if he can make
Speaker 1: it back um Arizona, the New York Jets, the New
Speaker 1: York Giants, Philly and Miami. So those are some bad secondaries.
Speaker 1: Last yeah, so Zona. The Giants in Miami were the
Speaker 1: bottom three teams in the league, followed by you know,
Speaker 1: you got the other two teams in there that we're
Speaker 1: at blow average. This doesn't include the tight end position specifically,
Speaker 1: but George Kittle is going to have a few huge
Speaker 1: games in here too, because Arizona is in Week one.
Speaker 1: I've got I've got a strong take, and I firmly
Speaker 1: believe George Kittle is gonna finish as a top five
Speaker 1: wide receiver based on his PPR points. I'm I would
Speaker 1: take him over DeAndre hop anyone other than Davante Adams
Speaker 1: or Michael Thomas. I'd rather of George Kittle. I think.
Speaker 1: All right, let's go over to the tough starts, and
Speaker 1: the toughest start of the season goes to the New
Speaker 1: York Football Giants, including Danny Dimes, Sterling Shepherd, Darius Slayton,
Speaker 1: and Golden Tate. Brian talked about it a little bit before. Pittsburgh, Chicago,
Speaker 1: San Francisco, l A, Rams, Dallas are the first five games,
Speaker 1: although Dallas is secondary is gonna take a big step
Speaker 1: backwards this year, right they may? Yeah, the first three
Speaker 1: weeks are against top six past defenses, then Week four
Speaker 1: against Jalen Ramsey. Their schedule does loosen up after that.
Speaker 1: But if you're investing in the Giants passing game. Wait
Speaker 1: until after week five. Okay, don't forget about Aaron don
Speaker 1: Old either, he might be Uh. The Las Vegas Raiders
Speaker 1: Derek Carr, Henry Ruggs, Tyrelle Williams, Hunter, Renfroll, Brian Edwards,
Speaker 1: UM Carolina, going New Orleans, New England, Buffalo, Kansas City
Speaker 1: are their first five weeks, and outside of that game
Speaker 1: against Carolina in Week one, that's a scary lineup in
Speaker 1: his team. Weeks three through five are against top ten
Speaker 1: past defenses. And notice I mentioned four wide receivers. This
Speaker 1: is a great opportunity for you to sit back watch
Speaker 1: the Raiders group, see who gets the snaps, see who
Speaker 1: gets the targets, and then invest after week five when
Speaker 1: their schedule gets a little bit easier. Uh. Their stretcher
Speaker 1: run by the Way, is very nice the Raiders, so
Speaker 1: keep an eye on them in the second half of
Speaker 1: the season. Finally, Houston Deshaun Watson, Brandon Cooks, will Fuller,
Speaker 1: Randall Cobb, and Kenny Stills. They get Listen to this
Speaker 1: schedule Kansas City, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Jacksonville to start off. Now,
Speaker 1: Jacksonville's not that Jacksonville is really bad and Minnesota secondaries
Speaker 1: without their number one, number two, and number three cornerbacks
Speaker 1: from last year. So Mike Zimmer said, I'd never have
Speaker 1: a bad defense, and he's right. He's pretty much right
Speaker 1: for top ten defenses to start the year. After that stretch,
Speaker 1: the Texans only have three stoppers the rest of the
Speaker 1: way on their schedule, with nine very positive matchups from
Speaker 1: Week five on. Alright, So that's your passing game all
Speaker 1: wrapped up in a nutshell, all right. So those are
Speaker 1: the three easy and the three hardest starts for passing game.
Speaker 1: Let's go to the running game. Who are the three
Speaker 1: easiest running game starts to the season. We alluded to
Speaker 1: this a little bit earlier, and and and Brian kind
Speaker 1: of nailed it here. Um, Baltimore and that's mark Ingram
Speaker 1: and JK. Dobbins. They get Cleveland, Houston, Kansas City, Washington,
Speaker 1: and Cincinnati, all of those teams ranked in the bottom
Speaker 1: ten in Fantasy rush defense last year, yes, even Kansas City.
Speaker 1: After that, they see a very tough stretch with four
Speaker 1: top five rush defenses in their next seven games. So
Speaker 1: they're gonna have a great start. But then it gets
Speaker 1: Rocky uh New England is the second team. That's James White,
Speaker 1: Sony Michelle, Lamar Miller, Damien Harris. They get Miami, Seattle,
Speaker 1: Las Vegas, Kansas City, and Denver Kansas City and the Raiders,
Speaker 1: by the way, both top or sorry, both bottom ten
Speaker 1: in the league and pass receptions allowed to running backs,
Speaker 1: so keep an eye on James White right there. And
Speaker 1: Miami gave up the third most yards to running backs
Speaker 1: last year, while Seattle gave up the second most rushing tds. Finally,
Speaker 1: the last easy start is Atlanta Todd Gurley, Brian Hill,
Speaker 1: Cadrey Allison maybe or some combination of all of them.
Speaker 1: Very frustrating. They get Seattle, Dallas, Chicago, Green Bay Carolina. Dallas,
Speaker 1: Chicago and Green Bay were middle of the road against
Speaker 1: the run. However, Carol Line was the worst run defense
Speaker 1: in the league by a wide margin last year. You
Speaker 1: can stream against the Panthers all year long, especially on
Speaker 1: a defense that lost Luke Keikley. So they're gonna be
Speaker 1: really bad against the run again this year. All right,
Speaker 1: let's go to the tough starts on the running back side.
Speaker 1: First one Denver, Melvin Gordon and Philip Lindsay they get Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Tampa,
Speaker 1: New York Jets, and New England in the first five weeks.
Speaker 1: The Titans are their first week they were middle of
Speaker 1: the pack, but the other four teams were elite top
Speaker 1: six against the run. So invest in the Broncos backs
Speaker 1: for your playoff schedule where they get Carolina, Buffalo and
Speaker 1: the Chargers. That's a lot better. Uh. The New York
Speaker 1: Giants a tough start, Hey Kwon Barkley, I'm giving you
Speaker 1: guys negative stuff on s Kwon um and and of
Speaker 1: course goal line specialist Wayne Gallman. Pittsburgh, Chicago, San Francisco,
Speaker 1: the Rams and Dallas. Those are tough teams. Steelers, Rams,
Speaker 1: Niners are all top ten against the run. Chicago and
Speaker 1: Dallas are better than average. All of Sa Kwan's easy
Speaker 1: weeks coming crunch time, though, he might win you a
Speaker 1: lot of leagues this year, starting in Week twelve against
Speaker 1: since Seattle, Arizona, and Cleveland. But Baltimore in the championship
Speaker 1: week for Kwan, that's messy. That could be tricky, although
Speaker 1: Baltimore Baltimore may have salted away home field by Week sixteen.
Speaker 1: I think if there's one team that's going to run
Speaker 1: away in the cities. Right there, there's a team that's
Speaker 1: going to run away with it. I think it's Baltimore. Okay,
Speaker 1: you should send out calendar invites like week after Week
Speaker 1: five trademark ingram. Maybe I'll put that in the Shock
Speaker 1: Fantasy Slack channel, put reminders time to trade for X.
Speaker 1: All right. I think there's one one more a tough start,
Speaker 1: and that is and this one. I love this one.
Speaker 1: I'm just relishing right here, the Green Bay Packers Aaron Jones,
Speaker 1: A J. Dillon, Jamal Williams. Here's what they get to
Speaker 1: start the year. Minnesota, Detroit, New Orleans, Atlanta bye week.
Speaker 1: That didn't sound all that hard. Vikings defensive line has
Speaker 1: been ravaged with a variety off season losses. Saints and
Speaker 1: Falcons were top ten against the run last year. This
Speaker 1: plays perfectly into our anti Aaron Jones narrative. The week
Speaker 1: five by fits in with A. J. Dillon maybe getting
Speaker 1: a look at more touches after that and getting worked
Speaker 1: into the offense more and more. But they do have
Speaker 1: Tampa in Week six, and Tampa was the top run
Speaker 1: defense last year, so they're bad through Week six. Well done, Matt,
Speaker 1: I challenge you to come up with all this data
Speaker 1: the first month scheduled, easy, the hard, and well well done.
Speaker 1: Thank you for grinding all of that data. Let's go
Speaker 1: to our sleepers. At the end of every show we
Speaker 1: release our sleepers. We begin with Brian Johnson, who have
Speaker 1: you got this week? Kind of on when you start
Speaker 1: with I have some enthusiasm for your sleeper, I'm going
Speaker 1: to I'm getting there. But Corey Davis, well that that
Speaker 1: is requisite of that reaction. In case you've forgotten, I
Speaker 1: forgot the NZ double as career receiving leader going into
Speaker 1: the final year of his rookie contract. Were Western Michigan
Speaker 1: Western Michigan? Were we still playing Western Michigan? Thanks for
Speaker 1: throwing that in there, And uh, you know, reigning on
Speaker 1: my parade. Uh, injured last year to injury fully healthy
Speaker 1: now off the pub list And and really here's my argument,
Speaker 1: see DeVante Parker post hype sleeper paid off last year.
Speaker 1: If anyone's gonna do it, it's six foot three Corey Davis,
Speaker 1: blue chip prospect. We'll have the best quarterback when he's
Speaker 1: been healthy in his career. She said, yeah, Bryan Tann
Speaker 1: health for twelve of the you know whatever, twelve fourteen
Speaker 1: games last year, and he was pretty much thrust into
Speaker 1: an alpha dog role as a rookie. But now he's
Speaker 1: at a J Brown John hu Smith to take off
Speaker 1: and of was Derrick Henry to keep defenses honest. So
Speaker 1: Corey Davis, you basically get him the last pick these
Speaker 1: days could pay off as a wide receiver to wide receiver.
Speaker 1: Three uh certain points. Corey Davis going after board. His
Speaker 1: player number two in draft um my sleeper is Paris Campbell,
Speaker 1: second year wide receiver from Indianapolis. I was really optimistic
Speaker 1: about Paris Campbell last year as a rookie, but he
Speaker 1: suffered a horrific hand injury, just brutal that cost him
Speaker 1: much of the season. I want to remind people at
Speaker 1: the Combine last year, I guess that would have been
Speaker 1: Combine he was a nine percentile Spark player. Four I
Speaker 1: believe percentile Spark player at the Combine. He is a
Speaker 1: Percy Harvin type receiver who is incredibly fast. He ran
Speaker 1: a four three forty at the Combine. But he's also
Speaker 1: strong and powerful and you do a lot of the catch.
Speaker 1: Here is head coach Frank Wright on Paris Campbell last week.
Speaker 1: Do your I don't know his voice and just did happen?
Speaker 1: It happens to be a lot like mine occgtionally very similar.
Speaker 1: He looks strong, fast, explosive, with good hands, and understands
Speaker 1: the offense. And he's very consistent. Oh that sounded just
Speaker 1: like Frank Raig. Notably, I fool his wife on a
Speaker 1: regular basis. With that reminder, you know, Paris Campbell is
Speaker 1: a second rounder last year, so they've got high draft
Speaker 1: pick equity in him, and currently he's the number two
Speaker 1: target behind only t Y Hilton, and on that offense,
Speaker 1: I like Paris Campbell currently going off the board in
Speaker 1: round seventeen of Fantasy Drafts Undrafted. Now, Brian and I
Speaker 1: are both in a we are in a slow auction
Speaker 1: right now, and Brian has got the high bid on
Speaker 1: Paris Campbell and two dollars bawling. Should I bid up? Absolutely?
Speaker 1: He feels like he should be worth at least three? Right?
Speaker 1: Shut up, Matt? What do you think, Matt? I think
Speaker 1: at least put put in the bid of five on
Speaker 1: the slow auction. I don't take Brian out for sure.
Speaker 1: I I acquired Nick Chubb in that auction. The guy. Hey,
Speaker 1: while you're making bids, why don't I give you my yes,
Speaker 1: my sleeper, Nicole Hardman of the Chiefs. It was only
Speaker 1: a year ago that Hardman was looking like the guy
Speaker 1: who had just slot into that offense to replace Tyreek Hill.
Speaker 1: They're similarly built for speed receivers. Hill had the fastest
Speaker 1: clock time in the NFL last year at twenty two
Speaker 1: point eight miles per hour when he chased down Damien
Speaker 1: Williams on a touchdown run. Well, Hartman had the fastest
Speaker 1: speed on a scoring play last year at twenty one
Speaker 1: point seven miles per hour. Hardman tied for the league
Speaker 1: lead in twenty five plus yard touchdown receptions last year
Speaker 1: with five. And he's entering year two in a Patrick
Speaker 1: Mahomes offense and you don't have to draft him till
Speaker 1: round nine. And he finished as the forty nine wide
Speaker 1: receiver in Fantasy last year, but he only had twenty
Speaker 1: six receptions. If you double that this year and give
Speaker 1: him fifty two, which is about what Sammy Watkins had,
Speaker 1: he'll easily go over a thousand yards and probably improve
Speaker 1: on sick touchdowns that he had last year. Yeah, it's
Speaker 1: all about consistency and targets for Nicole Hardman, you know,
Speaker 1: if they give him the targets, he has game breaking
Speaker 1: ability on almost every play. The problem was they just
Speaker 1: didn't target him last year. I think twenty three targets
Speaker 1: on the season. That's it. Well, receptions I hope he
Speaker 1: had all right, thank you very much. Uh, if you
Speaker 1: missed a part of the show, check of the podcast
Speaker 1: one target. That's hard to do. Try all the podcast
Speaker 1: Fantasy Football Weekly. UM, you can get back and hear
Speaker 1: all of the various segments, including are very valuable inside
Speaker 1: the five two segments that we had earlier in this show.
Speaker 1: We highly recommend you do that and also to check
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