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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named best betting podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go, throwing out job spector.

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Speaker 3: We're setting it to cash touchdo.

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Speaker 4: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, but

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Speaker 4: they go to wind.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible. Big bank, small bank.

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Speaker 4: I like to make money. All right, this is the

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Speaker 4: ultimate kabine you want to pull, and we are underway.

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Speaker 4: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. I'm your host, Chris

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Speaker 4: RAYBN and this is your week seven betting preview. Stucky

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Speaker 4: and I are going to go through our top six

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Speaker 4: favorite bets for this week in the Sunday six pack

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Speaker 4: will start off previewing Thursday night football. We'll give you

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Speaker 4: our favorite teaser, our favorite total, all that good stuff. Stucky,

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Speaker 4: what's going on? We were just talking off air. I mean,

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Speaker 4: how brutal was that Texans beat where they were up

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Speaker 4: and they go for to and miss it and then

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Speaker 4: the Titans just ram page down the field twice.

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Speaker 3: That kept me from a sweep last weekend. I know

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Speaker 3: it kept you from going eighth or eight on sides

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Speaker 3: last week as well. I mean it was my number

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Speaker 3: one overall pick because you took the forty nine er,

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Speaker 3: which would have been my number one overall pick. But yeah,

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Speaker 3: the amount of things that had happened to get to

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Speaker 3: overtime in coolanding a brilliant fake penalty where I guess

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Speaker 3: intentional penalty by Mike Vrabel. The Texans, if they wereware,

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Speaker 3: should have declined that, which enabled the Titans to get

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Speaker 3: the ball back and all the way down the field

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Speaker 3: and scored four seconds up on a questionable touchdown. I

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Speaker 3: probably agreed with it standing, but it was close.

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Speaker 4: I thought that was a bad call, but they couldn't

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Speaker 4: reverse it like it was Well.

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Speaker 3: That's what I mean. I don't think it was a touchdown,

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Speaker 3: but I see why you would say it stands. But

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Speaker 3: like the Texans missed an extra point earlier in the game,

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Speaker 3: and then that then the Titans went for two and

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Speaker 3: got it. Then obviously the Texans, which I agreed with

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Speaker 3: going for two with your defense, don't get it. And

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Speaker 3: then after the game I hear the Titans had two

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Speaker 3: hundred more yards. Dude, that is irrelevant. They got the

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Speaker 3: ball back going eighty yards in the final minute against

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Speaker 3: the prevent defense, and then in overtime, they got the ball,

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Speaker 3: whichever team got the ball was going down and scoring,

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Speaker 3: So there was your one hundred and eighty yards. It

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Speaker 3: was a completely dead even game, and once the Titans

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Speaker 3: won the toss, then it comes out to a coin flip.

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Speaker 3: He just had a figure that they were going down

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Speaker 3: and scoring against Houston's defense, and then they run a wildcat,

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Speaker 3: which is like the easiest play in the NFL. LIS

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Speaker 3: story to stop, like they're gonna do one thing there,

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Speaker 3: and I guess they were gonna go for it on

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Speaker 3: fourth down. But yeah, that was miserable. What are you

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Speaker 3: gonna do? These overtime beats got to stop. But we

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Speaker 3: move on.

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Speaker 4: The Titans keep finding a way to get it done.

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Speaker 4: We will talk about them more later in the show,

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Speaker 4: I am sure. Before we kick things off, here to

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Speaker 4: very quick reminders. Number one, if you planned about the

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Speaker 4: in the episode description. All right, let's get into it, stuck.

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Speaker 4: We're gonna talk some Thursday Night football.

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Speaker 2: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 2: Let's bet Thursday Night football.

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Speaker 4: So here we go. We got the Giants, we got

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Speaker 4: the Eagles. Is it a battle for first place? Is

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Speaker 4: it a battle for last place?

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Speaker 2: I don't know.

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Speaker 4: You had an interesting point about the Eagles when we

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Speaker 4: spoke before the Action Network Live show which comes on

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Speaker 4: every Sunday at eleven am Eastern, And you were fascinated

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Speaker 4: by the Eagles holding out a bunch of guys in

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Speaker 4: that Ravens game, and you know, kind of gearing up

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Speaker 4: for this Thursday night game. Now it looks like Alshon

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Speaker 4: Jeffrey is going to miss again. He's been practicing, does

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Speaker 4: not look like he's going to return this week, so

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Speaker 4: he's out. Deshaun Jackson, though, will be back. With Miles

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Speaker 4: Sanders out for the Eagles, Zach Ertz out for the Eagles.

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Speaker 4: What do you make of this game? With the Eagles

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Speaker 4: kind of shuffling some pieces here on offense. Every time

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Speaker 4: they get one guy back, it's like one step forward,

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Speaker 4: two steps back.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, maybe they should have sat Sanders and ERTs for

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Speaker 3: that game, but I think from there and Deshaun Jackson

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Speaker 3: still limited, so who knows how many snaps he's gonna

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Speaker 3: get and how long it takes before he's limping to

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Speaker 3: the sideline. But the you know, from the initial depth

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Speaker 3: chart the Eagles had going into the season, there's two

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Speaker 3: guys left. Ifj Sehaun Jackson can't go the whole game,

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Speaker 3: that's Jason Kelcey and Carson Wentz for this game. That's it.

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Speaker 3: So you know, it's it's a tough game to cap.

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Speaker 3: It's what I think it's gonna come down to, is

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Speaker 3: I mean, Carson Wentz is gonna have to play hero

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Speaker 3: ball with some of his backup receivers and that's either

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Speaker 3: gonna lead to a couple of big plays or a

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Speaker 3: couple turnovers, and that's probably gonna swing this game one

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Speaker 3: way or the other. In addition, what does Danny Dimes

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Speaker 3: do against a good Eagles defensive line that should be

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Speaker 3: able to generate pressure against the Giants weakness, which is

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Speaker 3: their offensive line.

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Speaker 2: Let's hear it for Danny Dimes.

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Speaker 3: So I think it's going to come down to like

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Speaker 3: one or two turnovers. I make the line four ish.

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Speaker 3: The over under is about fair. I see a tad

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Speaker 3: bit of value in the under. But the Eagles have

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Speaker 3: been playing a little faster. And one of the things

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Speaker 3: that I wanted to note is the Giants have played

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Speaker 3: the Steelers number two OVERALLBODA defense that bears number five,

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Speaker 3: the Rams number thirteen, the Cowboys way down they put

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Speaker 3: up thirty four Washington number seven. So like they've played

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Speaker 3: outside of the Cowboys game, which they actually did score.

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Speaker 3: They've played a number of really good defenses, and they've

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Speaker 3: hung around in these games. They've been competitive. So will

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Speaker 3: the offense look a lot better against an Eagles defense

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Speaker 3: which is nowhere near the caliber of a top rated defense. Well,

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Speaker 3: they actually throw to Evan Ingram. I mean you, that's

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Speaker 3: where you can exploit this Eagles defense up the seam.

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Speaker 3: I don't know, but I did want to point out

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Speaker 3: that if you, if you are thinking about backing this under,

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Speaker 3: you know, it's amazing how quick the NFL market catches up.

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Speaker 3: All this talk was about overs. Overs on the year

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Speaker 3: now are forty six, forty four and one. If you

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Speaker 3: go by month, they were twenty nine and nineteen in

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Speaker 3: September seventeen, and twenty five so far in October. Now,

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Speaker 3: small sample size, there's a lot of noise in there.

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Speaker 3: So I went and looked at what are the things

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Speaker 3: that have been driving these totals going up. We talked

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Speaker 3: about another thing, so we talked about penalties. Will holding

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Speaker 3: calls on the year are still at about one point

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Speaker 3: nine six per week. They ticked up a bit over

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Speaker 3: the past three weeks, but they're still under two. They've

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Speaker 3: been about you know, there were two seven last year

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Speaker 3: two eight, So holding calls are still down. If you

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Speaker 3: look at PI, PI for the year is about one

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Speaker 3: one point four to five past defensive passing inferance calls

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Speaker 3: per game historic clut's around one. Last year's are a

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Speaker 3: one to two, So penalties are still helping the offense

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Speaker 3: in general. It will be something that I continue to monitor.

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Speaker 3: If you look at points per game, week one, forty

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Speaker 3: seven and a half, Week two to fifty three point three,

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Speaker 3: Week three to fifty two point two, Week four to

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Speaker 3: fifty two point five, Week five, fifty one point eight,

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Speaker 3: Week six forty seven point four. So for the season

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Speaker 3: we're at about fifty one, which is still about three

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Speaker 3: or four points higher than last year. But we're starting

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Speaker 3: to see pace is now normalized, so pace has come

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Speaker 3: back down. You also see you're starting to see worse weather.

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Speaker 3: You're starting to see more backup quarterbacks. Quarterback injuries now happen.

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Speaker 3: But yards per point actually down, And what that means

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Speaker 3: is efficiency overall from an offensive standpoint is up. And

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Speaker 3: what I think that speaks to directly is fourth down decisions.

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Speaker 3: So you're seeing many, many more teams go for in

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Speaker 3: a fourth down of prolonged drives. Instead of kicking a

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Speaker 3: field goal, they'll go for it on fourth and one,

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Speaker 3: and then instead of punning, you know, or kicking a

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Speaker 3: field goal, they're able to convert the fourth and one

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Speaker 3: and then score a touchdown. Seeing that a lot more so,

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Speaker 3: I still think that you know, and there's still no fans,

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Speaker 3: so the communication is conducive to offenses. I still think

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Speaker 3: it's a overall over friendly environment with the penalties, with

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Speaker 3: the coaching decisions. Teams are also getting smart about throwing

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Speaker 3: on first down, but the market has adjusted. The market

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Speaker 3: is certainly adjusted, so don't be afraid. I think we

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Speaker 3: can just treat these over runders now as how we

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Speaker 3: see them playing out. Don't be afraid to get in

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Speaker 3: on unders. But it's something I'll continue to monitor and

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Speaker 3: update the podcast. But for this game, I probably won't

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Speaker 3: have anything. The market looks about fair, and I think

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Speaker 3: it'll just come down to a couple of key turnovers

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Speaker 3: and went to shown'll throw them. Danny Dimes has shown

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Speaker 3: that holds cough it up when he's gets pressured, so

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Speaker 3: it's probably a stay away for me. As I always say,

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Speaker 3: if I could find a reason to stay away through

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Speaker 3: Thursday night, I will and I have plenty of reasons

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Speaker 3: to stay away here.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and when you talk about going forward on fourth down,

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Speaker 4: the Giants and the Eagles are actually both top six

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Speaker 4: in a fourth down attempts. The Eagles are three of nine,

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Speaker 4: the Giants are six of eight. Both of these teams

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Speaker 4: are kind of middling to bad on on third downs,

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Speaker 4: and it's you know, it's I think the under does

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Speaker 4: have a little bit of value, but it's come down

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Speaker 4: some You really don't know about this Eagles offense. It's

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Speaker 4: so banged up. But you look at the Eagles, they've

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Speaker 4: been struggling all year and their pace when in a

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Speaker 4: situation like this game script will likely or is more

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Speaker 4: likely to play out than it has been another weeks

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Speaker 4: for the Eagles, they are number twenty three, and seconds

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Speaker 4: per play with a seven point lead or more, we

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Speaker 4: now you know total seconds per play in terms of

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Speaker 4: you know, total pace, Eagles are number five. In the

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Speaker 4: second half, they're number three. They're usually down. When the

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Speaker 4: game is close within six, they're they're number nine. When

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Speaker 4: they trail by seven or more, they're number three. So

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Speaker 4: if the Eagles can jump out to a wed you're

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Speaker 4: kind of saying, Okay, maybe this game will be a

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Speaker 4: little higher score, but I think if the Eagles jump

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Speaker 4: out to weed, it actually might be a good live

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Speaker 4: underspot because I think they'll slow it down and the

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Speaker 4: giants of I don't even know. I agree with you.

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Speaker 4: I don't know how they're going to get it going

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Speaker 4: on offense against still a solid d line for the Eagles,

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Speaker 4: but I do think Evan Ingram has to get involved.

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Speaker 4: I mean, Philly's number thirty one in DVA against the

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Speaker 4: tight end position, and this is like the offense needs

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Speaker 4: Evan Ingrim. It's not just like, Okay, you know there's

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Speaker 4: other guys maybe you know Slayton, and it's not like

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Speaker 4: Shepherd's there and Tate's not doing much, so you need Ingram.

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Speaker 4: So I wouldn't be surprised if he were to go off.

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Speaker 4: But overall, I think this game does win to to under,

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Speaker 4: and I'd look out for that if if the Eagles

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Speaker 4: get up, because that's really the only time they've kind

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Speaker 4: of slowed it down a bit. And if this Thursday

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Speaker 4: go right in too. Our Sunday six Pack.

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Speaker 1: Thursday for action, Let's crack open the Sunday six Pack.

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Speaker 4: We draft our top three favorite sides each week. Our

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Speaker 4: top picks worth two. Our other two picks are worth

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Speaker 4: one point, and then our favorite total, which we talk

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Speaker 4: about in the next segment, that's also worth a point.

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Speaker 4: So where are you going to start this week?

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Speaker 3: I have some ugly teams coming up this week, just

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Speaker 3: be warned. But let's start with the Detroit Lions at

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Speaker 3: the Atlanta Falcons to plus two and a half bet

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Speaker 3: MGM right now the official arts rider of the Action

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Speaker 3: of Work podcast. So these two teams are fairly similar.

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Speaker 3: You know, they have really good offenses and questionable defenses.

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Speaker 3: I fancy the Lions defense a little bit more, which

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Speaker 3: is why I think, you know, I make this closer

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Speaker 3: to a point of which is I think what will

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Speaker 3: be the difference here. I also think that they'll be

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Speaker 3: able to better execute in the red zone, where we've

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Speaker 3: seen the Falcons have issues. And here's one of the

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Speaker 3: reasons why I really like the Lions this week, and

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Speaker 3: they're a great teaser piece of especially two and a half.

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Speaker 3: I've been begging for them to change things on offense

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Speaker 3: right and defense. I talked about this last week on

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Speaker 3: the podcast. I want to see them change up their

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Speaker 3: looks on defense. I want to see them throw more

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Speaker 3: on first down. I want to see them stop handing

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Speaker 3: it to Adrian Peterson. Maybe they listened to the podcast.

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Speaker 3: They did all of those things. Last week, they blitzed

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Speaker 3: a ton and they got a thirty four percent pressure rate.

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Speaker 3: They were sixteen percent before last week. They played zone

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Speaker 3: sixty one percent of the time. They were averaging thirty

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Speaker 3: percent over the previous four games. They took more deep shots,

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Speaker 3: they started throwing more on first downs, and guess what,

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Speaker 3: they kept Adrian Peterson. But I think if you look

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Speaker 3: like pro football focus is the least efficient back. Obviously

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Speaker 3: they kept them on the silence for the most part,

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Speaker 3: and they let Deanderry Swift run the ball and they

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Speaker 3: had their first hundred yard rusher in over a year.

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Speaker 3: So they're taking more deep shots s Gallade's back, they're

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Speaker 3: handing the ball to Swift now instead of Peterson. And

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Speaker 3: on defense, they're changing up their looks and they're bringing pressure.

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Speaker 3: So I think all those things bode well for the

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Speaker 3: defense moving forward instead of just sitting in this base

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Speaker 3: predictable cover one all the time. So I like the

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Speaker 3: way that this Lions team is trending. Maybe they'll revert back,

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Speaker 3: but you know, at the end, of the day. I'll

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Speaker 3: also take the two and a half look to see

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Speaker 3: if you can get a three or tease it in

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Speaker 3: a game that should be close, there should be points,

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Speaker 3: and it'll probably come down to a red zone possession

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Speaker 3: or two. And I trust the Lions defense, and they're

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Speaker 3: often all lines. Offensive line, by the way, is playing

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Speaker 3: really well. I trust the Lions defense to get a

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Speaker 3: couple more stops or force a couple more field goals.

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Speaker 3: So give me the Lions plus two and a half year,

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Speaker 3: and I hope they continued switching up the looks on defense,

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Speaker 3: taking those deep shots, keeping swift in the game, and

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Speaker 3: then throwing more on first down. I like what I

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Speaker 3: saw last week. Hopefully the Lions do as well. So

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Speaker 3: give me the lines.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I like it. I think you know it was

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Speaker 4: an obvious spot. I guess to back the the Falcons

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Speaker 4: last week with the coaching change, but now you know,

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Speaker 4: now you're a week removed from that, this is kind

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Speaker 4: of a letdown spot. I don't think this is really

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Speaker 4: a mismatch, and the Falcons really haven't had much of

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Speaker 4: a home field advantage either. And even though the Lions

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Speaker 4: didn't have a bye last week, I mean they almost

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Speaker 4: had a buy because they kind of cruised to victory

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Speaker 4: against the Jags. That game was never in doubt, So

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Speaker 4: I think the Lions well rested, getting healthier, and like

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Speaker 4: you said, mixing up some looks. So I like them

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Speaker 4: as a teaser too, and I may have taken them

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Speaker 4: if you hadn't.

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Speaker 3: Hello Detroit.

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Speaker 4: For my number one pick. I'm actually going back to

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Speaker 4: the well of the same situational spot that I bet

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Speaker 4: the Lions last week against the Jaguars, and that's the

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Speaker 4: Seattle Seahawks off of bye playing Arizona here on short rest,

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Speaker 4: not on a short week, no less, And I mean

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Speaker 4: Arizona one thirty eight to ten was it and it

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Speaker 4: was not really that impressive of a victory and I

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Speaker 4: was back in Arizona, but I mean they get the late,

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Speaker 4: you know, breakaway run from Kenyan Drake. They're playing a

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Speaker 4: Cowboys team in a in a letdown spot that's you know,

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Speaker 4: it's obvious because they get this one's for Dak win

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Speaker 4: the week before against the Giants, so you could kind

337
00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:28,159
Speaker 4: of see the letdown coming a little bit with the

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Speaker 4: Cowboys and Andy Dalton can't handle pressure. And even though

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Speaker 4: the Cards didn't have Chandeler Jones. In that game, they

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Speaker 4: were able to dive up some pressures and Dalton could

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Speaker 4: not make them pay. I think he just dumped it

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Speaker 4: down to Zeke. This is going to be a totally

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Speaker 4: different beast, you know. To then come on a short

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Speaker 4: week and prepare for arrested Seahawks team with Russell Wilson

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Speaker 4: playing out of his mind. The Seahawks are, you know,

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Speaker 4: near the top of the league in every passing category

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Speaker 4: or at the top of the league. So you know,

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Speaker 4: I'm going with the Seahawks. Here for my number one

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Speaker 4: pick in the Sunday sixth pack, now sixty three twenty

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Speaker 4: nine and two against the spreads, sixty nine percent are

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Speaker 4: road favorites coming off a bye since two thousand and three.

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Speaker 3: Well, I disagree with you just because of my number.

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Speaker 3: And to throw a trend out there, it's the curious trend.

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Speaker 3: But teams off a Monday night game playing a team

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Speaker 3: off a bye are twenty four to nine and one

356
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Speaker 3: against the spread, covering by over a touchdown the game

357
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Speaker 3: on average since two thousand and three, twenty four nine

358
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Speaker 3: to one. Since nineteen eighty nine, thirty three and fifteen.

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Speaker 3: My hypothesis that maybe this spot with the bye, and

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Speaker 3: then a team coming off Monday night gets over valued

361
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Speaker 3: in the market. I don't see why else it would

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Speaker 3: be beneficial to play on a short week versus a

363
00:18:45,760 --> 00:18:48,359
Speaker 3: team coming off of a bye. But you know, it

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Speaker 3: looks like the Arizona defense. They lost Chander Jones, which

365
00:18:52,160 --> 00:18:55,280
Speaker 3: is a big loss for his edge pressure. But the

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Speaker 3: defense overall is playing a lot better. I like their

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Speaker 3: play calling. I think it's going to make them more aggressive.

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Speaker 3: You saw in Dallas they were bringing Bud to Baker

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Speaker 3: a lot. This Seahawks defense is just a trash can

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Speaker 3: I mean, I can't get over how bad they are.

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Speaker 3: Like every week I see more performances. I'm like, wow,

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Speaker 3: how bad must that Seattle defense must have been. We

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Speaker 3: saw the Patriots. They can't get a first down against

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Speaker 3: Denver's backups the whole game until the end. I mean

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Speaker 3: it was but they this is a New England team

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Speaker 3: that just went up and down the field. Cam Newton

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Speaker 3: looked like he was running back in his prime. The

378
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Speaker 3: Panthers when they went to the Super Bowl, they they

379
00:19:29,520 --> 00:19:31,200
Speaker 3: was just throwing down field. I mean it was all.

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Speaker 3: Then you can see the Vikings. The Vikings put a

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Speaker 3: five hundred yards of offense against Seattle and then they

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Speaker 3: can't do anything against Atlanta. To Seattle defense is really

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Speaker 3: batter than Jabal Adams. Doesn't look it's gonna pay. They

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Speaker 3: don't get any pressure, they're confused in the secondary. Their

385
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Speaker 3: best players are at linebacker. It's like, yeah, pretty meaningless

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Speaker 3: against Arizona is gonna spread you out. So I make

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Speaker 3: this line closer to two. Even adjusting I adjusted. I

388
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Speaker 3: gave a half a point bump to Seattle for the

389
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Speaker 3: situational spot, but I make it under three. The Arizona

390
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Speaker 3: defense is grading out fairly well. The one thing I

391
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Speaker 3: will say is that that could be misleading because the

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Speaker 3: quarterbacks they've played are Bridgewater, h Flacco, Dalton. You know,

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Speaker 3: they played Jimmy g week one, and they played Washington

394
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Speaker 3: and Detroit they lost to at home. So they haven't

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Speaker 3: played the best lineup of quarterbacks, which is one thing

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Speaker 3: that gives me a little bit of hesitation. But you know,

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Speaker 3: I hate the Seattle team, so I'll probably against you.

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Speaker 4: I mean, listen, I I get what you're saying about

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Speaker 4: the defense. This is no secret. Seattle's defense is terrible,

400
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Speaker 4: but their quarterbacks is playing good enough to outweigh that defense.

401
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Speaker 4: And this is not like a Seattle spot where you

402
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Speaker 4: have to kind of gauge whether you want to take

403
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Speaker 4: the plunge at you know, six, six and a half seven.

404
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Speaker 4: This is them as a three and a half point favorite.

405
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Speaker 4: You know this, they win games by one possession. Yeah,

406
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Speaker 4: but this is this could be a smash spot for them,

407
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Speaker 4: because I really have concerns about this Arizona team. I mean,

408
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Speaker 4: as much like we know what Seattle's issues are, they're

409
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Speaker 4: playing to see and they can get through it because

410
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Speaker 4: they're just playing so well offensively. But I mean Arizona,

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Speaker 4: you talk about a terrible thirty eight to ten win.

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Speaker 4: Kyler Murray was the eight of twenty and nearly half

413
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Speaker 4: of his yards or more than half of his yards

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Speaker 4: came on one eighty yard played at Christian Kirk Arizona.

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Speaker 4: And I've said this since last year. They have a

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Speaker 4: tendency as good as Kyler Murray is, and he's great,

417
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Speaker 4: you know, he's probably gonna get at least one rushing

418
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Speaker 4: touchdown or make up at least like two big plays

419
00:21:36,200 --> 00:21:39,159
Speaker 4: every game on the ground, but the passing offense, it

420
00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:41,840
Speaker 4: looks like it's going sideways half the time. They can't

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Speaker 4: they can't run block like that. You know, they get

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Speaker 4: the they get sprung for the big run at the

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Speaker 4: end of the at the end of the game, and

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Speaker 4: that that inflates their numbers. But this Arizona team is

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Speaker 4: worrisome and that's why I think. You saw them lost

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Speaker 4: lose to a team like Carolina, you saw them lose

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Speaker 4: to a team like Detroit. Yeah, they've got some wins

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Speaker 4: again Joe Flacco and Andy Dalton, but I think the

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Speaker 4: public was overrating Dallas heading into that Cardinals game, to

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Speaker 4: be honest. So you know, now it's a spot where

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Speaker 4: you know, maybe it was it looked impressive to some

432
00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:12,359
Speaker 4: people for Arizona to get a bow out win. But

433
00:22:12,400 --> 00:22:14,720
Speaker 4: I'm not buying I'm not buying it at all. I think,

434
00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:17,320
Speaker 4: you know, Seattle is ever going to you know, mitigate

435
00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:20,040
Speaker 4: whatever's going on on defense. It's going to come on

436
00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:23,800
Speaker 4: this short h on this you know, two week buy.

437
00:22:24,560 --> 00:22:26,800
Speaker 4: And I mean that trend is pretty crazy though, but

438
00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:29,240
Speaker 4: the the road favorites off a by trend has like

439
00:22:29,320 --> 00:22:31,240
Speaker 4: I think double or more of the sample size, So

440
00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:33,720
Speaker 4: I'm still going with that. I still like Seattle. I

441
00:22:33,720 --> 00:22:35,960
Speaker 4: wouldn't be surprised if Seattle, wile them out.

442
00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:39,280
Speaker 3: Of rare Ca. Well that they actually did beat the

443
00:22:39,320 --> 00:22:41,920
Speaker 3: Cardinals in Arizona by double digits lat year, then lost

444
00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:45,280
Speaker 3: at home spot seventeen to the last nineteen by one possessions.

445
00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:49,120
Speaker 3: You better hope they went between four and eight. All Right,

446
00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:55,000
Speaker 3: For my second pick of the Sunday six pack, I'm

447
00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:58,840
Speaker 3: going back on my word and let's go with the

448
00:22:59,000 --> 00:23:03,840
Speaker 3: New York Football Jets plus thirteen and a half. Look,

449
00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:06,200
Speaker 3: I know that I'm trying to catch a falling knife here,

450
00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:10,719
Speaker 3: and I've led the bandwagon saying do not bet on

451
00:23:10,760 --> 00:23:12,840
Speaker 3: the New York Jets this year. I've set it for

452
00:23:12,880 --> 00:23:16,159
Speaker 3: six straight weeks. They didn't cover for six straight weeks.

453
00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:19,080
Speaker 3: Them and the Cowboys became the first team since twenty

454
00:23:19,200 --> 00:23:21,720
Speaker 3: thirteen to start off the season zero and six against

455
00:23:21,720 --> 00:23:25,480
Speaker 3: the spread. So while these while all these people have

456
00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:29,359
Speaker 3: been betting, you know, the Jets, they haven't been covered,

457
00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:32,159
Speaker 3: I've been saying, don't bet them. Now I'm seeing all

458
00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:34,880
Speaker 3: this stuff on Twitter. Will they go own sixteen? There

459
00:23:34,880 --> 00:23:38,200
Speaker 3: was an article on ESPN today, don't bet the Jets.

460
00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:40,879
Speaker 3: Everyone's saying now, don't bet the Jets. It's usually a

461
00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:43,959
Speaker 3: signal that it's time. Let's look back at and by

462
00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:45,439
Speaker 3: the way, I make those line ten and a half,

463
00:23:45,520 --> 00:23:49,360
Speaker 3: I've had the Jets eight to ten points worse than

464
00:23:49,920 --> 00:23:52,919
Speaker 3: they've been following They're about ten points worse than an

465
00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:55,200
Speaker 3: average team on a neutral field right now. The Bills

466
00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:56,800
Speaker 3: have problems, by the way, the Bills have problems with

467
00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:59,760
Speaker 3: their offensive line. They have injuries. They cut Swain the

468
00:24:00,119 --> 00:24:02,040
Speaker 3: defensive line. I don't know what is going on with

469
00:24:02,040 --> 00:24:04,439
Speaker 3: the Bills defensive line. They just decided to healthy Scratch

470
00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:06,840
Speaker 3: Murphy of Phillips last week. So the Chiefs just handed

471
00:24:06,880 --> 00:24:09,159
Speaker 3: it off one hundred times at the middle because the

472
00:24:09,280 --> 00:24:12,919
Speaker 3: Bill's a no defensive line. Milano is banged up. And

473
00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:14,399
Speaker 3: the Bills, by the way, are coming off of a

474
00:24:14,480 --> 00:24:17,320
Speaker 3: short week, two short weeks. They played Tuesday night and

475
00:24:17,359 --> 00:24:20,439
Speaker 3: then Monday night, and now another short week on the

476
00:24:20,520 --> 00:24:23,800
Speaker 3: road in division to a New York team that has

477
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:26,240
Speaker 3: to have some pride here. But more so than that,

478
00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:29,399
Speaker 3: Buffalo plays New England next week and then about seven

479
00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:32,520
Speaker 3: straight playoff teams. Like their schedule gets really tough. I

480
00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:34,399
Speaker 3: doubt they're gonna show much here. They're gonna try to

481
00:24:34,400 --> 00:24:36,520
Speaker 3: get healthy, They're gonna just try to escape out here

482
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:39,000
Speaker 3: with an ugly win. I mean, just catching thirteen and

483
00:24:39,000 --> 00:24:41,080
Speaker 3: a half and the totals forty five and which should

484
00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:43,199
Speaker 3: be a lower scoring game is too much for me

485
00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:45,240
Speaker 3: to pass up. And it seems like teams have figured

486
00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:47,119
Speaker 3: out how to play the Bills. The Ravens kind of

487
00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:50,320
Speaker 3: showed the script last year. They just blitzed, and Josh

488
00:24:50,359 --> 00:24:52,240
Speaker 3: Allen can't. All you have to do is blitz the

489
00:24:52,240 --> 00:24:55,359
Speaker 3: Bills because Allen is so inaccurate underneath. Well, what's the

490
00:24:55,359 --> 00:24:57,240
Speaker 3: one thing that Jets will do. They'll blitz as much

491
00:24:57,240 --> 00:24:59,719
Speaker 3: as any team not named the Ravens. So they are

492
00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:03,080
Speaker 3: gonna lets Allen force him into some mistakes underneath and

493
00:25:03,119 --> 00:25:06,840
Speaker 3: some inaccuracy underneath, which will cause some punts. But I

494
00:25:06,920 --> 00:25:08,560
Speaker 3: just think the Bills aren't going to show much here.

495
00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:12,639
Speaker 3: I think the market is finally has finally oversold the Jets.

496
00:25:12,720 --> 00:25:14,880
Speaker 3: Let's look back at the teams. The last three teams

497
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:17,159
Speaker 3: are only three teams in the past decade that have

498
00:25:17,240 --> 00:25:19,479
Speaker 3: gone oh and six against the spread. The two and

499
00:25:19,560 --> 00:25:23,600
Speaker 3: fourteen Texans in twenty thirteen, they were plus seven at

500
00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:26,359
Speaker 3: the Chiefs with case Keenum at quarterback. They lost by one.

501
00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:30,480
Speaker 3: The twenty eleven Dolphins they started out o and six

502
00:25:30,520 --> 00:25:32,760
Speaker 3: against the spread ow and six straight up. They were

503
00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:34,800
Speaker 3: plus nine and a half. At the Giants with Matt

504
00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:37,560
Speaker 3: Moore as their quarterback, they lost by three, and the

505
00:25:37,560 --> 00:25:40,960
Speaker 3: two and fourteen Rams the twenty eleven two and fourteen Rams,

506
00:25:40,960 --> 00:25:43,000
Speaker 3: who also started out and six straight up and against

507
00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:45,040
Speaker 3: the spread, they were plus thirteen and a half. At

508
00:25:45,040 --> 00:25:47,879
Speaker 3: the Saints they won by ten with AJ Pheely as

509
00:25:47,920 --> 00:25:51,840
Speaker 3: their quarterback. So if you need some level of comfort

510
00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:53,879
Speaker 3: to back the Jets here, those were three hard teams

511
00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:56,800
Speaker 3: with case Keenum, Matt Moore, and AJ Pheeley as their quarterbacks,

512
00:25:56,840 --> 00:25:58,919
Speaker 3: all oh and six against the spread. Two of them

513
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:02,480
Speaker 3: are owing six straight up. The market completely backed off

514
00:26:02,680 --> 00:26:05,120
Speaker 3: all of them and all three covered. This is still

515
00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:08,040
Speaker 3: the NFL. These guys are still playing for jobs. So

516
00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:11,080
Speaker 3: there's been nothing pretty about the Jets. I've hated them

517
00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:13,600
Speaker 3: all year. I've had them lower than everyone all year

518
00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:17,400
Speaker 3: to start the year. Now I've haven't like way over

519
00:26:17,400 --> 00:26:19,199
Speaker 3: adjusted them. They kind of are who I thought they were,

520
00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:21,719
Speaker 3: a shitty ass team, But now I think the market's

521
00:26:21,720 --> 00:26:23,880
Speaker 3: over sold in a good spot. Bills off a short week,

522
00:26:23,920 --> 00:26:26,680
Speaker 3: two short weeks in a row, Patriots on deck, some

523
00:26:27,080 --> 00:26:30,800
Speaker 3: issues in the trenches. That run defense is really poor.

524
00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:32,439
Speaker 3: So with the Jets, of what they're doing is just

525
00:26:32,480 --> 00:26:35,480
Speaker 3: handing it off running dives. I might work against the

526
00:26:35,480 --> 00:26:38,040
Speaker 3: Bills to get a couple drives here. So give me

527
00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:41,080
Speaker 3: the New York Football oh and six straight up and

528
00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:44,359
Speaker 3: Owen six against the spread. Adam Gays led, Joe Flacco

529
00:26:44,480 --> 00:26:48,040
Speaker 3: probably led, although Darnold practice today. New York Jets.

530
00:26:48,359 --> 00:26:51,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, I think this line is way off. I have

531
00:26:51,440 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 4: it at ten as well, and I do think it's

532
00:26:53,520 --> 00:26:56,359
Speaker 4: a tough situational spot for the Mills. I'm not gonna

533
00:26:56,440 --> 00:26:59,040
Speaker 4: bet on Adam Gaze just because I just refuse. But

534
00:26:59,400 --> 00:27:01,880
Speaker 4: the Jets to the right play and this this line

535
00:27:01,920 --> 00:27:04,160
Speaker 4: is off by I would say two to three points.

536
00:27:04,200 --> 00:27:07,960
Speaker 4: So it's a great value. And I give you props

537
00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:10,880
Speaker 4: for you much. Yeah, I give you props for taking

538
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:26,200
Speaker 4: the plunge there. For my second pick, I am going

539
00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:29,960
Speaker 4: to go with one that I'm surprised that the market

540
00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:31,359
Speaker 4: shifted on this one. I thought I was going to

541
00:27:31,440 --> 00:27:34,720
Speaker 4: kind of be on an island with the Tennessee Titans,

542
00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:38,480
Speaker 4: especially after they lost Caro wu Wan to a torn

543
00:27:38,560 --> 00:27:41,359
Speaker 4: a c l But with the number four pick in

544
00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:45,399
Speaker 4: the Week seven, Sunday six pack. I am taking the

545
00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:51,600
Speaker 4: Tennessee Titans, no left tackling all at home against the

546
00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:56,120
Speaker 4: Pittsburgh Steelers, who, by the way, played four straight home

547
00:27:56,160 --> 00:27:59,520
Speaker 4: games because of all this COVID madness. So Titans are

548
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:02,119
Speaker 4: one and a half point favorites. I actually got this

549
00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:05,800
Speaker 4: at plus two and a half, so it got steamed

550
00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:10,320
Speaker 4: like crazy. I think probably a few hours before we're

551
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:12,960
Speaker 4: recording this. I was all ready to take them as

552
00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:15,600
Speaker 4: a dog. There's a lot a lot of bet, a

553
00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:17,520
Speaker 4: lot of value bet out of this line. But I

554
00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:19,919
Speaker 4: still like the Titans in this spot. I think you

555
00:28:19,960 --> 00:28:22,640
Speaker 4: look at what Pittsburgh does well. They get pressure. That's

556
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:25,680
Speaker 4: why I was betting them against Baker Mayfield. And you

557
00:28:25,720 --> 00:28:30,240
Speaker 4: would think that Tennessee no left tackle against the defense

558
00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 4: against pressure, big issues, right, Well, Ryan Tannehill, after starting

559
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:38,800
Speaker 4: his career very shaky against pressure. Last year he was

560
00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:41,080
Speaker 4: near the top of the league in passer rating under pressure,

561
00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:43,800
Speaker 4: and this year he's number one according to Pro Football

562
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 4: Focused in passer rating under pressure. His other bugaboo was

563
00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:49,479
Speaker 4: he would take a ton of sacks and so his

564
00:28:49,600 --> 00:28:52,520
Speaker 4: you know, his passing numbers would look good because you

565
00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:55,000
Speaker 4: know he would either make a good play or he

566
00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:57,800
Speaker 4: would take a sack. Well, that's not happening anymore. He's

567
00:28:57,800 --> 00:29:01,040
Speaker 4: getting the ball out quicker and sack rate is way

568
00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:05,160
Speaker 4: down to under to single digits in terms of percentages

569
00:29:05,480 --> 00:29:07,320
Speaker 4: when he's under pressure. So he's playing a lot better

570
00:29:07,400 --> 00:29:10,080
Speaker 4: under pressure. And I'm just this is time to sell

571
00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:13,200
Speaker 4: on the Steeler team after they play four straight home games,

572
00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:16,560
Speaker 4: don't really impress in any of them, get a ton

573
00:29:16,600 --> 00:29:19,959
Speaker 4: of big plays that kind of booy their their final

574
00:29:20,400 --> 00:29:22,920
Speaker 4: point totals. And you look at the Steelers their bottom

575
00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:27,000
Speaker 4: five on offense in early down success rate, both with

576
00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:29,680
Speaker 4: the run game and the pass game, and that's that

577
00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:33,280
Speaker 4: maybe a surprising to people considering, you know, Chase Claypool's

578
00:29:33,320 --> 00:29:35,640
Speaker 4: broken out and the Steelers are, you know, getting to

579
00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:38,080
Speaker 4: the high twenties every week. But this is a team

580
00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:41,040
Speaker 4: that has not been consistent on a down to down basis,

581
00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:43,440
Speaker 4: and I don't really think that this defense. I think

582
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:45,720
Speaker 4: this is a tough matchup for their defense as well,

583
00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 4: going against this Titans team that's near the top of

584
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:51,760
Speaker 4: the league in both run and pass early down success rates.

585
00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:55,880
Speaker 4: So the Titans haven't been all that impressive either. But

586
00:29:56,960 --> 00:29:59,640
Speaker 4: I think that this team is just a you know,

587
00:29:59,720 --> 00:30:01,920
Speaker 4: in the spot, the Titans third straight home game, the

588
00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:04,560
Speaker 4: Steelers finally going on the road again. I just think

589
00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:08,400
Speaker 4: we don't know enough about the Steelers to trust them

590
00:30:08,560 --> 00:30:11,880
Speaker 4: as road favorites or even short road dogs in this spot.

591
00:30:12,440 --> 00:30:14,560
Speaker 4: I like Tennessee here, and I wouldn't be surprised if

592
00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:17,640
Speaker 4: Tennessee actually blew the Steelers out. And this was a big,

593
00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:21,760
Speaker 4: wet down game for Pittsburgh, who's just been playing way

594
00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:23,680
Speaker 4: above their heads offensively.

595
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:27,120
Speaker 3: Wow, I kind of disagree this Titan see. I feel

596
00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:28,760
Speaker 3: like I'm lower on the Titans in most of the market.

597
00:30:28,800 --> 00:30:31,960
Speaker 3: I mean, they keep escaping with these wins over not

598
00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:34,560
Speaker 3: great teams, by the way, and I mean, even if

599
00:30:34,560 --> 00:30:37,560
Speaker 3: you look at the Bills game, it was pretty misleading

600
00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:39,960
Speaker 3: that possible. But who are the other teams they beat?

601
00:30:40,000 --> 00:30:41,600
Speaker 3: I mean, their first three wins came by a total

602
00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:44,520
Speaker 3: six points. They could have too. There were two point

603
00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:46,840
Speaker 3: conversion away from losing to the Texans at home. The

604
00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:50,360
Speaker 3: defense is terrible. They get no pressure, none, and then

605
00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:53,640
Speaker 3: their secondaries banged up. I don't like the defense at all,

606
00:30:53,720 --> 00:30:56,880
Speaker 3: So you know that's that would be big once they

607
00:30:56,880 --> 00:30:59,400
Speaker 3: get him back healthy. But you know, the big worry

608
00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:03,040
Speaker 3: for me is the Steelers run defense is really solid

609
00:31:03,280 --> 00:31:07,000
Speaker 3: and although Bush, they did lose Bush, and what will

610
00:31:07,040 --> 00:31:09,920
Speaker 3: happen without Lawan and some of their backups are banged

611
00:31:09,960 --> 00:31:12,479
Speaker 3: up as well, because I know that Tannel has been

612
00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:15,000
Speaker 3: good under pressure, but they run a lot of play action.

613
00:31:15,240 --> 00:31:17,040
Speaker 3: What you saw last week is when when the one

614
00:31:17,080 --> 00:31:19,520
Speaker 3: went out, the Titans had two turnovers, one of which

615
00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:24,080
Speaker 3: was JJ Watt firing off the edge where Lawan normally

616
00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:26,960
Speaker 3: is and hitting Tannehal and he fumbled it. The other

617
00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:29,000
Speaker 3: one was pressure and he threw a pick, So they

618
00:31:29,000 --> 00:31:30,360
Speaker 3: were trying to hit a big play. I don't know

619
00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:32,880
Speaker 3: if that was necessarily pressure generated, but can will the

620
00:31:32,920 --> 00:31:35,200
Speaker 3: Steelers get one or two? You know, will they force

621
00:31:35,280 --> 00:31:38,200
Speaker 3: a turnover that wouldn't have happened here. I just trust

622
00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:41,640
Speaker 3: the Steelers defense to get a few more stops over

623
00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:44,200
Speaker 3: than the Titans, and the Steeers offense hasn't been good.

624
00:31:44,240 --> 00:31:46,320
Speaker 3: Their offensive line isn't as good this year, and I'm

625
00:31:46,400 --> 00:31:49,080
Speaker 3: saying that since the beginning of the year. I think

626
00:31:49,120 --> 00:31:51,280
Speaker 3: this line is about right to me, something I love

627
00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:54,840
Speaker 3: the Steelers. Although this normally is a Tomlin smash spot,

628
00:31:55,200 --> 00:31:58,800
Speaker 3: he's playing a team that's five to zero. This is

629
00:31:58,920 --> 00:32:00,920
Speaker 3: he's a raw rock coach. His team up for these

630
00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:03,000
Speaker 3: road games. He's twenty one to ten against the spread

631
00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:05,959
Speaker 3: in his career on the road against teams that are

632
00:32:06,000 --> 00:32:09,000
Speaker 3: over five hundred, so he should have his team fired

633
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:13,120
Speaker 3: up here. Even with the Ravens on DAK. These are

634
00:32:13,120 --> 00:32:15,120
Speaker 3: two undefeated teams in the FC, so I expect the

635
00:32:15,120 --> 00:32:18,280
Speaker 3: Steelers to be fired up here. I all I want

636
00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:20,040
Speaker 3: in this game. I think it should be close is

637
00:32:20,240 --> 00:32:22,440
Speaker 3: but now I'm waiting for the Steelers to get to

638
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:23,800
Speaker 3: see if they get the two two and a half.

639
00:32:23,840 --> 00:32:25,080
Speaker 3: If not at one and a half, I'll tease the

640
00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:26,800
Speaker 3: Steelers up over seven. I think this is the one

641
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:27,480
Speaker 3: possession game.

642
00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:30,200
Speaker 4: I mean, you talk about and I agree to Titans.

643
00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:33,760
Speaker 4: Yeah they haven't beat anybody crazy, but you talk about

644
00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:41,400
Speaker 4: strength to schedule. These are the Steelers wins, Giants, Broncos, Texans, Eagles, Browns.

645
00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:46,600
Speaker 4: I was on the Steelers in against the Giants. The

646
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:50,800
Speaker 4: Texans tease them against the Eagles and bet them against

647
00:32:50,800 --> 00:32:53,760
Speaker 4: the Browns. Like so I'm It's not like I don't

648
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:55,600
Speaker 4: like the Steelers or I'm not on to them. I

649
00:32:55,600 --> 00:32:57,120
Speaker 4: think they have a great defense, but I mean, I

650
00:32:57,200 --> 00:33:00,680
Speaker 4: think I think I've been getting lucky with them covering

651
00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:02,840
Speaker 4: in a lot of these spots because and I think

652
00:33:03,280 --> 00:33:06,160
Speaker 4: the thing people don't realize about Tennessee is it's a

653
00:33:06,200 --> 00:33:10,000
Speaker 4: little bit seattle, like they're well coached and they just

654
00:33:10,080 --> 00:33:14,040
Speaker 4: have this offensive formula that it almost is it doesn't

655
00:33:14,120 --> 00:33:16,240
Speaker 4: matter what's going on with the old one, it doesn't.

656
00:33:16,600 --> 00:33:20,040
Speaker 4: Derrick Henry is just such a unique beast. And then

657
00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:22,560
Speaker 4: that combined with Ryan Tanner, who, by the way, you know,

658
00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 4: all the starts at the Titans so far, he's only

659
00:33:24,280 --> 00:33:27,760
Speaker 4: thrown for he's only failed to throw multiple touchdowns twice

660
00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:32,760
Speaker 4: as a Tennessee Titan. Like this, this offense can score

661
00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:35,520
Speaker 4: the best of them. This is why we lost this bet,

662
00:33:35,600 --> 00:33:38,160
Speaker 4: you know, with Houston, because this team goes down the

663
00:33:38,200 --> 00:33:40,920
Speaker 4: field twice and just you know, wins the game. And

664
00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:43,720
Speaker 4: I just don't think it. It may sound crazy, and

665
00:33:43,760 --> 00:33:45,520
Speaker 4: I maybe I could be Obviously I could be wrong.

666
00:33:45,520 --> 00:33:47,960
Speaker 4: It's probably at least of you know, like a forty seven,

667
00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:51,120
Speaker 4: forty six percent chance I'm wrong, But I don't think

668
00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:54,560
Speaker 4: Pittsburgh can hang with the Titans offensively. And that's just

669
00:33:54,560 --> 00:33:55,840
Speaker 4: a bottom line.

670
00:33:55,560 --> 00:33:58,920
Speaker 3: Where I think this game could be decided is in

671
00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 3: the red zone, Like, are the Titans ever gonna have

672
00:34:01,120 --> 00:34:04,240
Speaker 3: any regression in the red zone? They score every by

673
00:34:04,280 --> 00:34:06,239
Speaker 3: the way red zone scoring touchdown for something his way

674
00:34:06,280 --> 00:34:08,480
Speaker 3: up this year too across the board. I think that's

675
00:34:08,520 --> 00:34:11,680
Speaker 3: because teams are able to communicate more. There's not noise,

676
00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:13,239
Speaker 3: you know, right, that's where noise gets the largest and

677
00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:15,640
Speaker 3: teams are going for it on fourth down. But the

678
00:34:15,680 --> 00:34:18,120
Speaker 3: Titans are just so elite and last year that the

679
00:34:18,160 --> 00:34:20,360
Speaker 3: Steelers were historically bad in the red zone. Obviously that

680
00:34:20,560 --> 00:34:23,920
Speaker 3: historically bad quarterback play. But if they're settling for field goals,

681
00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:26,600
Speaker 3: it's tough because that Titans offense is so good in

682
00:34:26,600 --> 00:34:27,360
Speaker 3: the red zone.

683
00:34:27,120 --> 00:34:31,400
Speaker 4: Bottom five stuck bottom five and offensive early down success

684
00:34:31,480 --> 00:34:34,239
Speaker 4: rate like that's that's just a super Like that's a

685
00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:36,279
Speaker 4: huge red flag. Like you could you could have a

686
00:34:36,280 --> 00:34:38,799
Speaker 4: great defense all you want, but if you can't move,

687
00:34:38,960 --> 00:34:40,960
Speaker 4: the Titans are going to score points. Like the Titans

688
00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:43,040
Speaker 4: don't not score points. I think the overs what like

689
00:34:43,400 --> 00:34:46,640
Speaker 4: thirteen and three or something in Tannehill starts, you know,

690
00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:49,000
Speaker 4: since it's taken over, like, the Titans are going to score.

691
00:34:49,120 --> 00:34:51,000
Speaker 4: So that Steelers defense, I mean they get a twenty

692
00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:54,520
Speaker 4: nine and the Eagles Browns was a predictable wetbown spot

693
00:34:54,520 --> 00:34:57,120
Speaker 4: for the Browns with Baker hurt. But I'm just not

694
00:34:57,160 --> 00:35:01,160
Speaker 4: impressed with with Pittsburgh, so I'm selling them fair enough.

695
00:35:02,400 --> 00:35:04,719
Speaker 5: Hope you're enjoying this great action network podcast. I want

696
00:35:04,760 --> 00:35:07,320
Speaker 5: to make sure you know about the locked On podcast network.

697
00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:10,320
Speaker 5: Locked On has a daily podcast on your favorite team.

698
00:35:10,440 --> 00:35:12,680
Speaker 3: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers. You are locked

699
00:35:12,680 --> 00:35:14,840
Speaker 3: down of the Dallas marriage home. Everybody to the Lockdown

700
00:35:14,880 --> 00:35:16,480
Speaker 3: Lakers podcast. Let's Go.

701
00:35:16,760 --> 00:35:19,680
Speaker 5: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

702
00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:21,960
Speaker 5: know your team better than anyone and give you the

703
00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:24,760
Speaker 5: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

704
00:35:24,960 --> 00:35:29,279
Speaker 5: locked On your favorite team. Subscribe to your locked On podcast.

705
00:35:32,840 --> 00:35:33,200
Speaker 4: All right.

706
00:35:33,239 --> 00:35:36,680
Speaker 3: For my third pick in the fifth overall of the

707
00:35:36,760 --> 00:35:41,200
Speaker 3: Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Cleveland Browns or

708
00:35:41,320 --> 00:35:45,640
Speaker 3: minus three minus one twenty at bet MGM against the

709
00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:49,920
Speaker 3: Cincinnati Bengals. Look, we figured out pretty much. I make

710
00:35:49,960 --> 00:35:52,120
Speaker 3: this line close for four and a half. Look the

711
00:35:52,160 --> 00:35:56,520
Speaker 3: first matchup, the Browns dominated. It took miracles miracles for

712
00:35:56,840 --> 00:35:58,719
Speaker 3: the Bengals to lose by five. For me to lose

713
00:35:58,760 --> 00:36:00,839
Speaker 3: that five minus five and hour bet on a bet

714
00:36:00,880 --> 00:36:03,640
Speaker 3: like multiple backdoors five or five on fourth down, the

715
00:36:03,680 --> 00:36:05,960
Speaker 3: Begals were out gained by three yards per play, just

716
00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:08,840
Speaker 3: a complete mismatch. The Browns could do whatever they wanted

717
00:36:08,960 --> 00:36:11,400
Speaker 3: in the run game and through the air. And the

718
00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:14,359
Speaker 3: reason for that is we've pretty much figured out who

719
00:36:14,400 --> 00:36:17,480
Speaker 3: the Browns are and it's because of who Baker Mayfield is.

720
00:36:17,760 --> 00:36:20,799
Speaker 3: The two of the worst performances this year across the

721
00:36:20,920 --> 00:36:24,800
Speaker 3: NFL have been the Browns against the Steelers and the Ravens.

722
00:36:25,040 --> 00:36:27,640
Speaker 3: Guess what those two teams do really well. They get pressure,

723
00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:29,920
Speaker 3: they blitz, they can get for the Steelers and get

724
00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:34,560
Speaker 3: pressure regardless, and Baker Mayfield under pressure is horrible. Quarter

725
00:36:34,680 --> 00:36:38,720
Speaker 3: Minimum Hunter dropbacks this year been thirty one quarterbacks. Baker

726
00:36:38,760 --> 00:36:43,840
Speaker 3: Mayfield has quarterback rating of twenty two point six. Only

727
00:36:44,040 --> 00:36:47,160
Speaker 3: Teddy Bridgewater is actually worse. In a clean pocket, he's

728
00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:49,920
Speaker 3: been great. Well, guess what against Cincinnati he should have

729
00:36:49,960 --> 00:36:53,839
Speaker 3: a clean pocket. The Cincinnati defensive line is I don't

730
00:36:53,880 --> 00:36:57,000
Speaker 3: even know who's left. You have reader on the on IR,

731
00:36:57,120 --> 00:37:00,080
Speaker 3: you have Hubbard Allen, I are Geno Atkins and my

732
00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:02,160
Speaker 3: leftis are like going to be traded to the Bills.

733
00:37:02,200 --> 00:37:04,480
Speaker 3: Maybe I don't know. They took the Bengals out of

734
00:37:04,520 --> 00:37:07,480
Speaker 3: their Instagram profile. They're not practicing today for some reason,

735
00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:12,160
Speaker 3: so who's left. It's insane And they're thirty first and

736
00:37:12,200 --> 00:37:15,000
Speaker 3: pressure rate regardless, but they're not even playing their best guys.

737
00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:18,000
Speaker 3: And then on top of that, you have William Jackson,

738
00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:20,120
Speaker 3: who has been great that corner this year. He's in

739
00:37:20,200 --> 00:37:23,480
Speaker 3: concussion protocol. He's playing at a top twenty cornerback level

740
00:37:23,560 --> 00:37:26,720
Speaker 3: so far this year. He might not play. Joe Mixon,

741
00:37:26,960 --> 00:37:30,640
Speaker 3: he might not play. So look, I'll bet against this

742
00:37:30,719 --> 00:37:33,120
Speaker 3: Bengals team trying to dink and dunk their way down

743
00:37:33,160 --> 00:37:35,080
Speaker 3: the field and go, and I don't have to worry

744
00:37:35,080 --> 00:37:37,439
Speaker 3: about his back door as much with minus three here,

745
00:37:37,719 --> 00:37:39,600
Speaker 3: and the Browns will be able to move the ball

746
00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:42,280
Speaker 3: just like everyone does in this Bengals defense, but especially

747
00:37:42,280 --> 00:37:45,560
Speaker 3: the Browns. The Bengals just have terrible linebackers. Their offense

748
00:37:45,680 --> 00:37:48,400
Speaker 3: is built to succeed against this Bengals d and the

749
00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:51,360
Speaker 3: Bengals just don't get pressure. And if you don't pressure Mayfield,

750
00:37:51,600 --> 00:37:53,920
Speaker 3: this offense is going to put him into places to

751
00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:55,759
Speaker 3: succeed because they're gonna be able to run the ball.

752
00:37:55,840 --> 00:37:58,560
Speaker 3: Everyone is gonna be the entire defense is going to

753
00:37:58,600 --> 00:38:00,279
Speaker 3: be coming up. The States is gonna be coming up,

754
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:02,399
Speaker 3: and they're gonna hit a few deep shots and they're

755
00:38:02,400 --> 00:38:06,000
Speaker 3: gonna break a few runs, big runs. So I like

756
00:38:06,040 --> 00:38:09,440
Speaker 3: the Browns in a back bounce back spot here because

757
00:38:09,520 --> 00:38:11,600
Speaker 3: these are just the teams that they match up well with.

758
00:38:12,080 --> 00:38:14,480
Speaker 3: When they're gonna play teams, they're gonna pressure them. Baker

759
00:38:14,520 --> 00:38:16,960
Speaker 3: Mayfield is gonna fold. And even if Baker Mayfield doesn't

760
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:19,520
Speaker 3: go and it's case Keenum, fine, you could put case

761
00:38:19,719 --> 00:38:22,920
Speaker 3: Keenum in the same situations that you put Baker Mayfield

762
00:38:22,920 --> 00:38:25,719
Speaker 3: in with this rushing offense, and he'll succeed as well.

763
00:38:25,840 --> 00:38:28,160
Speaker 3: In case Keenum is a very underrated deep ball. So

764
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:31,160
Speaker 3: give me the Browns minus three against the Bengals.

765
00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:34,479
Speaker 4: Love it. This was Seattle, I think was the first

766
00:38:34,480 --> 00:38:36,600
Speaker 4: bet I locked in this week because I figured, you know,

767
00:38:36,640 --> 00:38:39,680
Speaker 4: no matter what happened with with Arizona, the books weren't gonna,

768
00:38:40,160 --> 00:38:43,319
Speaker 4: you know, get make that line any lower, So bet them.

769
00:38:43,360 --> 00:38:45,399
Speaker 4: But this was I believe the second bet I made

770
00:38:45,480 --> 00:38:47,960
Speaker 4: of the week. I would have taken them if you hadn't.

771
00:38:48,360 --> 00:38:51,160
Speaker 4: I think that it's everything you hear on is exactly true.

772
00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:56,160
Speaker 4: You have to bet based on these offensive line matchups

773
00:38:56,160 --> 00:38:58,400
Speaker 4: and what I and I don't mean like you just

774
00:38:59,160 --> 00:39:01,239
Speaker 4: blindly say, okay, team can get pressure or this team

775
00:39:01,239 --> 00:39:04,200
Speaker 4: can't get pressure, because there's situations when certain teams just

776
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:07,000
Speaker 4: aren't affected by pressure, you know, like the Titans. So

777
00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:10,680
Speaker 4: like the Steelers, their advantages that they have against most teams,

778
00:39:10,719 --> 00:39:13,439
Speaker 4: they don't have it against the Titans. But I think

779
00:39:13,480 --> 00:39:16,640
Speaker 4: in this spot, this is a perfect spot to buy

780
00:39:16,680 --> 00:39:19,480
Speaker 4: back in on a Browns team that was such a

781
00:39:19,560 --> 00:39:22,720
Speaker 4: clear fade last week because, as you mentioned, going against

782
00:39:22,760 --> 00:39:26,360
Speaker 4: the Steelers. So love this pick for you, and I

783
00:39:26,400 --> 00:39:27,560
Speaker 4: would have definitely taken it.

784
00:39:27,800 --> 00:39:29,879
Speaker 3: I think Miles Garrett will have a few big plays here.

785
00:39:29,960 --> 00:39:32,480
Speaker 3: By the way, do you know what the number two quarterback.

786
00:39:32,160 --> 00:39:32,680
Speaker 4: Is this year?

787
00:39:32,760 --> 00:39:33,320
Speaker 3: Under pressure?

788
00:39:33,800 --> 00:39:34,120
Speaker 4: With it?

789
00:39:34,320 --> 00:39:35,719
Speaker 3: Your boy Philly Rivers.

790
00:39:36,160 --> 00:39:39,080
Speaker 4: I know, yeah, he's good when he's not terrible, right,

791
00:39:40,600 --> 00:39:43,719
Speaker 4: It's just like it's like that's the thing with Rivers though, Man,

792
00:39:43,719 --> 00:39:45,560
Speaker 4: I guess another dude that I'm probably not gonna be

793
00:39:45,560 --> 00:39:46,759
Speaker 4: better on this here just because like you don't know

794
00:39:46,760 --> 00:39:48,000
Speaker 4: what you're gonna get with them peril.

795
00:39:48,080 --> 00:39:51,680
Speaker 3: Rivers will always be the goat's pieces.

796
00:39:51,040 --> 00:39:53,680
Speaker 4: Right play just good enough to stay in the game

797
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:55,680
Speaker 4: and just bad enough to like not win it. So

798
00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:58,080
Speaker 4: you have to like be driving on that last play

799
00:39:58,200 --> 00:39:58,759
Speaker 4: and end up like.

800
00:39:59,000 --> 00:40:01,359
Speaker 3: He's not gonna cover against bad teams, but he'll find

801
00:40:01,360 --> 00:40:04,200
Speaker 3: a way to win, like last week by like three barely, I.

802
00:40:04,120 --> 00:40:07,440
Speaker 4: Mean, and another thing going in Cleveland's favor to get

803
00:40:07,440 --> 00:40:10,320
Speaker 4: back to them real quick. I think Stefanski's still a

804
00:40:10,400 --> 00:40:13,960
Speaker 4: solid coach, and he's been delta kind of below average.

805
00:40:13,960 --> 00:40:16,400
Speaker 4: Hand in Baker Mayfield, I actually talk about it. Have

806
00:40:16,440 --> 00:40:19,439
Speaker 4: an article up of the Action Network talking about when

807
00:40:19,800 --> 00:40:23,280
Speaker 4: the different quarterback metrics stabilize and what it tells us about.

808
00:40:23,480 --> 00:40:26,000
Speaker 4: You know, where these quarterbacks are over the last three

809
00:40:26,080 --> 00:40:28,680
Speaker 4: draft cluesses before this in terms of being a franchise passer.

810
00:40:28,719 --> 00:40:32,759
Speaker 4: And Mayfield we're over twelve hundred dropbacks now into his

811
00:40:32,880 --> 00:40:36,239
Speaker 4: career and he's below average and adjusted net yards per

812
00:40:36,320 --> 00:40:39,279
Speaker 4: attempt he's around five point nine. You always want to

813
00:40:39,320 --> 00:40:42,520
Speaker 4: crack six these days because the efficiency has been going

814
00:40:42,560 --> 00:40:44,000
Speaker 4: up in the week. A couple of years ago. Week

815
00:40:44,080 --> 00:40:46,680
Speaker 4: average was like five to nine, I think in twenty seventeen,

816
00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:51,279
Speaker 4: but now it's around six point four, and in Mayfield's

817
00:40:51,360 --> 00:40:54,200
Speaker 4: just falling short it's because of the pressure, but since

818
00:40:54,200 --> 00:40:57,280
Speaker 4: he gets none.

819
00:40:56,320 --> 00:40:59,040
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831
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836
00:41:49,400 --> 00:41:50,680
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837
00:41:52,719 --> 00:41:58,200
Speaker 4: All right. For the sixth and final pick of the

838
00:41:58,400 --> 00:42:03,440
Speaker 4: Week seven six pack, I am going with the Tampa

839
00:42:03,440 --> 00:42:08,279
Speaker 4: Bay Buccaneers three point favorites on the road facing the

840
00:42:08,320 --> 00:42:10,799
Speaker 4: Las Vegas Raiders, and I'll be the first to say

841
00:42:11,640 --> 00:42:14,640
Speaker 4: Raiders playing well this year. Uh. I will also be

842
00:42:14,680 --> 00:42:18,680
Speaker 4: the first to say, don't let the loss of Trent

843
00:42:18,760 --> 00:42:23,920
Speaker 4: Brown go understated, because this Raiders offensive line when it's

844
00:42:23,960 --> 00:42:26,280
Speaker 4: when it's on, it's on. But he's a key piece

845
00:42:26,320 --> 00:42:28,880
Speaker 4: there at right tackle. They love to run on the

846
00:42:28,960 --> 00:42:31,320
Speaker 4: right side. And you know, he came back against k

847
00:42:31,480 --> 00:42:34,279
Speaker 4: C and it was you know, everybody talks about, you know,

848
00:42:34,520 --> 00:42:36,640
Speaker 4: the narrative was like, hey, Kannasy offense, we got to

849
00:42:36,680 --> 00:42:38,480
Speaker 4: change the way we play, you know, you kind of

850
00:42:38,520 --> 00:42:41,560
Speaker 4: being reckless there. But the Raiders put up forty points

851
00:42:41,760 --> 00:42:44,320
Speaker 4: in that game, and it was it was no surprise

852
00:42:44,480 --> 00:42:47,960
Speaker 4: that Trent Brown being back, you know, for the really

853
00:42:48,000 --> 00:42:50,960
Speaker 4: his first healthy game all year was you know that

854
00:42:51,080 --> 00:42:53,320
Speaker 4: happened at that at that point and that was impressive.

855
00:42:53,600 --> 00:42:56,399
Speaker 4: But now he goes on the COVID list and you're

856
00:42:56,440 --> 00:42:59,640
Speaker 4: going against the number one defense in in the weege,

857
00:43:00,320 --> 00:43:03,000
Speaker 4: a defense that you know, showed that Aaron Rodgers is

858
00:43:03,040 --> 00:43:04,919
Speaker 4: still who he thought he was, which is a great

859
00:43:04,960 --> 00:43:07,720
Speaker 4: quarterback when he doesn't face pressure, or at least teams

860
00:43:07,719 --> 00:43:10,880
Speaker 4: that can get pressure without always bringing a blitz. So

861
00:43:11,760 --> 00:43:13,640
Speaker 4: I think Derek Carr, he's been playing a lot better

862
00:43:13,680 --> 00:43:16,160
Speaker 4: this year, really grasping that offense. But I think this

863
00:43:16,239 --> 00:43:19,279
Speaker 4: is a tough spot for them, Tampa, you know, even

864
00:43:19,320 --> 00:43:22,719
Speaker 4: coming off the buy, because the trends favor the favorites

865
00:43:22,719 --> 00:43:25,279
Speaker 4: coming off the buy, especially on the road, not as

866
00:43:25,360 --> 00:43:28,680
Speaker 4: much in terms of the when you have an underdog

867
00:43:28,760 --> 00:43:31,839
Speaker 4: in that spot. And I think that the Brown News,

868
00:43:31,840 --> 00:43:34,279
Speaker 4: which broke a little earlier today, were recording this on

869
00:43:34,280 --> 00:43:36,720
Speaker 4: a Wednesday night. I think that was big. I actually

870
00:43:36,719 --> 00:43:39,560
Speaker 4: bet it before that at two and a half. It's

871
00:43:39,600 --> 00:43:42,880
Speaker 4: at three. Now I suspect it will actually probably go

872
00:43:43,000 --> 00:43:46,359
Speaker 4: the other way here because I think that's a big,

873
00:43:46,400 --> 00:43:48,239
Speaker 4: big loss. And Tampa Bay is actually the number one

874
00:43:48,239 --> 00:43:50,600
Speaker 4: team in dv away in the league, like it just

875
00:43:50,640 --> 00:43:57,600
Speaker 4: an overall DVOA Vegas number twenty one, So they have

876
00:43:57,719 --> 00:44:02,239
Speaker 4: some impressive wins on the resume. Warwans Kansas City, they

877
00:44:02,239 --> 00:44:05,840
Speaker 4: were giant killers. So hey, maybe the uh you know,

878
00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:08,640
Speaker 4: the Bucks are next, but I'm not buying it. I think,

879
00:44:09,080 --> 00:44:11,000
Speaker 4: uh if you know, the Raiders are still getting a

880
00:44:11,000 --> 00:44:14,960
Speaker 4: little bit overrated because of the teams that they beat.

881
00:44:15,080 --> 00:44:17,799
Speaker 4: But they go to Buffalo, I mean, Buffalo comes in there,

882
00:44:18,320 --> 00:44:21,000
Speaker 4: and they can't beat Buffalo, and they can't run the

883
00:44:21,000 --> 00:44:23,600
Speaker 4: ball against Buffalo, which was which was kind of surprising.

884
00:44:23,640 --> 00:44:26,000
Speaker 4: And I think Tampa Bay a team that can take

885
00:44:26,040 --> 00:44:28,000
Speaker 4: away your run game, and even without Vidavea, who we

886
00:44:28,040 --> 00:44:30,239
Speaker 4: talked about, it is probably worth like a point to

887
00:44:30,280 --> 00:44:32,719
Speaker 4: that to that defense. But I mean, man, do they

888
00:44:32,719 --> 00:44:35,640
Speaker 4: have guys flying around in his defense? I mean White

889
00:44:35,680 --> 00:44:41,160
Speaker 4: and and h JPP and uh well, Fante David was

890
00:44:41,239 --> 00:44:44,200
Speaker 4: ridiculous against Green Bay. I just think it's it's gonna

891
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:46,319
Speaker 4: be a tough spot for for the Raiders, especially when

892
00:44:46,360 --> 00:44:49,560
Speaker 4: they don't have their O line intact. So I was

893
00:44:49,600 --> 00:44:52,239
Speaker 4: also thinking about betting the Vegas team total under it's

894
00:44:52,239 --> 00:44:53,960
Speaker 4: a pretty high total game. I don't know if it's

895
00:44:54,800 --> 00:44:57,120
Speaker 4: warranted for the Raiders. I think the Bucks will will

896
00:44:57,120 --> 00:45:00,719
Speaker 4: put up some points, but uh, I'm expecting a convincing

897
00:45:01,239 --> 00:45:04,000
Speaker 4: Bucks win here. I think you disagree with me, though,

898
00:45:04,080 --> 00:45:04,919
Speaker 4: so tell me why I'm wrong.

899
00:45:06,160 --> 00:45:09,400
Speaker 3: I mean I did before, but it's it's tough that

900
00:45:09,480 --> 00:45:11,080
Speaker 3: I just gave like a cancel. To be honest, I

901
00:45:11,120 --> 00:45:14,279
Speaker 3: mean they sent all their offensive lineman home today. I

902
00:45:14,320 --> 00:45:17,080
Speaker 3: mean all offensive linemen are near each other all the time,

903
00:45:17,200 --> 00:45:19,400
Speaker 3: so we'll see who test positive. Richie at Incognita is

904
00:45:19,400 --> 00:45:22,200
Speaker 3: also not back to and Froun's not gonna play. Richie

905
00:45:22,320 --> 00:45:26,200
Speaker 3: Incognito would be big against going up against Sue. We

906
00:45:26,200 --> 00:45:28,080
Speaker 3: didn't get to see. I still want to see how

907
00:45:28,160 --> 00:45:31,000
Speaker 3: much of a loss Vidavea is last week. Didn't really

908
00:45:31,040 --> 00:45:33,400
Speaker 3: get to see it because you know, I mean the

909
00:45:33,400 --> 00:45:35,040
Speaker 3: backers went down and scored right away, and then Aaron

910
00:45:35,080 --> 00:45:36,560
Speaker 3: Rodgers just threw a bunch of pick six and then

911
00:45:36,560 --> 00:45:38,440
Speaker 3: they had to throw it, And like, I want to

912
00:45:38,440 --> 00:45:42,399
Speaker 3: see if how elite the bucks Runde still is because

913
00:45:42,440 --> 00:45:44,520
Speaker 3: vidave just is so good and he also con generate

914
00:45:44,560 --> 00:45:46,400
Speaker 3: pressure with the middle, but he just takes up bodies

915
00:45:46,400 --> 00:45:49,399
Speaker 3: to free up those linebackers. And you know, they signed

916
00:45:49,400 --> 00:45:51,200
Speaker 3: Steve McClendon and they have some guys who might be

917
00:45:51,239 --> 00:45:52,879
Speaker 3: able to help. But I still want to see more

918
00:45:52,880 --> 00:45:55,560
Speaker 3: time to see how much of an adjustment down it is.

919
00:45:56,000 --> 00:45:58,080
Speaker 3: But Bade David might be the best linebacker in football

920
00:45:58,480 --> 00:46:03,400
Speaker 3: right now. Dean is elite. Carlton Davis their corners are legit,

921
00:46:03,520 --> 00:46:06,000
Speaker 3: and Winfield's playing well at safety. This might be the

922
00:46:06,000 --> 00:46:07,160
Speaker 3: best defense in the NFL.

923
00:46:07,480 --> 00:46:10,480
Speaker 4: I tell you that secondary, man, watch that secondary. I know,

924
00:46:10,520 --> 00:46:12,319
Speaker 4: I know you had your questions about them.

925
00:46:12,440 --> 00:46:14,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, I wanted to see if there was some regression,

926
00:46:14,120 --> 00:46:18,040
Speaker 3: and the level is not dropping, so I mean, but situationally,

927
00:46:18,040 --> 00:46:21,400
Speaker 3: it's a bad spot for Tampa. They're coming up this

928
00:46:21,520 --> 00:46:23,680
Speaker 3: huge win. The Raiders are coming off of a bye,

929
00:46:23,920 --> 00:46:26,080
Speaker 3: but now you're sending all these guys home. The offensive line,

930
00:46:26,080 --> 00:46:28,440
Speaker 3: which is your strength, isn't there. I mean, car has

931
00:46:28,480 --> 00:46:30,279
Speaker 3: been really good. He's number one in the NFL deep

932
00:46:30,320 --> 00:46:33,279
Speaker 3: passing too, So they're actually taking more shots now, which

933
00:46:33,320 --> 00:46:35,640
Speaker 3: I like, you know, but Edwards still isn't gonna play.

934
00:46:35,719 --> 00:46:39,680
Speaker 3: The defense is still really bad, so I would I

935
00:46:39,760 --> 00:46:43,279
Speaker 3: was gonna look at the Raiders over three, but there's

936
00:46:43,360 --> 00:46:47,520
Speaker 3: so many question marks now with this offensive line and

937
00:46:47,560 --> 00:46:50,520
Speaker 3: the COVID stuff, and they're just not fully healthy. There's

938
00:46:50,560 --> 00:46:52,440
Speaker 3: something that I'm still trying to look into, and it's

939
00:46:52,440 --> 00:46:55,000
Speaker 3: about circadian rhythm. There's been a bunch of articles written

940
00:46:55,040 --> 00:46:57,200
Speaker 3: about East Coast teams traveling to the West Coast to

941
00:46:57,200 --> 00:46:59,759
Speaker 3: play a primetime game from like nineteen seventy to like

942
00:46:59,760 --> 00:47:02,399
Speaker 3: twoenty twelve, which where all the studies are done. These

943
00:47:02,440 --> 00:47:05,400
Speaker 3: East Coast teams have been awful on the West Coast

944
00:47:06,040 --> 00:47:08,239
Speaker 3: at prime time compared to the afternoon, like it was

945
00:47:08,280 --> 00:47:10,080
Speaker 3: just free money to play them. But over the last

946
00:47:10,080 --> 00:47:13,320
Speaker 3: like ten years it's not really mattered so our teams

947
00:47:13,400 --> 00:47:15,600
Speaker 3: and just in general maybe the market has priced to

948
00:47:15,640 --> 00:47:18,200
Speaker 3: price it in. Teams are also getting smarter about travel,

949
00:47:18,840 --> 00:47:21,759
Speaker 3: so you know, over the last ten years, also the

950
00:47:21,800 --> 00:47:24,480
Speaker 3: West Coast team traveling east for that one o'clock kick,

951
00:47:24,520 --> 00:47:26,400
Speaker 3: there's used to be able to fade them, you know,

952
00:47:26,480 --> 00:47:29,080
Speaker 3: twenty years ago and make money. But there's no longer

953
00:47:29,080 --> 00:47:31,640
Speaker 3: an edge there, so I don't think there's anything to it.

954
00:47:31,719 --> 00:47:33,359
Speaker 3: But that used to be a big thing way back

955
00:47:33,440 --> 00:47:37,040
Speaker 3: in the day. Yeah, the Bucks d is legit. Brady

956
00:47:37,040 --> 00:47:39,759
Speaker 3: has his weapons now he should be able to move

957
00:47:39,760 --> 00:47:41,800
Speaker 3: the ball against the Raiders. I don't hate the under

958
00:47:42,040 --> 00:47:43,400
Speaker 3: or the team total under with the Raiders, but these

959
00:47:43,400 --> 00:47:46,560
Speaker 3: teams play on the slower side, and if the Raiders

960
00:47:46,560 --> 00:47:49,480
Speaker 3: on't have a fully healthy offensive line, could be a

961
00:47:49,480 --> 00:47:49,879
Speaker 3: long night.

962
00:47:50,239 --> 00:47:52,040
Speaker 4: I mean, I think this is an interesting week for

963
00:47:52,760 --> 00:47:57,800
Speaker 4: picking your spots with narratives and overreactions It kind of

964
00:47:57,800 --> 00:47:59,839
Speaker 4: feels a little bit like Week two, Week three over

965
00:48:00,120 --> 00:48:03,440
Speaker 4: action week because I find myself in most of the

966
00:48:03,440 --> 00:48:06,680
Speaker 4: spots that I was betting backing teams last week. I'm selling.

967
00:48:06,719 --> 00:48:10,680
Speaker 4: I'm selling Pittsburgh, I am I'm back in Green Bay.

968
00:48:11,160 --> 00:48:14,000
Speaker 4: I'm back in Cleveland, you know, after fading them last week.

969
00:48:14,360 --> 00:48:17,200
Speaker 4: But Tampa Bay is the one team that I'm going

970
00:48:17,280 --> 00:48:19,719
Speaker 4: back to. And I think that it's interesting that like

971
00:48:19,880 --> 00:48:23,880
Speaker 4: Aaron Rodgers reverts to who he always was, which is

972
00:48:24,440 --> 00:48:27,600
Speaker 4: a great quarterback when he's clean. But just at this point,

973
00:48:27,600 --> 00:48:31,560
Speaker 4: they don't have enough weapons to beat good defenses that

974
00:48:31,600 --> 00:48:34,799
Speaker 4: can get pressure. And you know that never changed. They

975
00:48:34,920 --> 00:48:36,640
Speaker 4: just had an easy schedule to start the year. But

976
00:48:37,080 --> 00:48:40,520
Speaker 4: at the same time, it's like Greenma goes up ten

977
00:48:40,600 --> 00:48:42,879
Speaker 4: nothing in this game. Aaron Rodgers has been playing out

978
00:48:42,880 --> 00:48:46,040
Speaker 4: of his mind. He's still Aaron Rodgers. They have DeVante Adams.

979
00:48:46,239 --> 00:48:49,560
Speaker 4: I know their tackle goes down Baktiari and you know

980
00:48:49,640 --> 00:48:52,359
Speaker 4: that little concerning even though I do like Green Bay

981
00:48:52,360 --> 00:48:55,359
Speaker 4: against the Texans, but no one's talking about the fact

982
00:48:55,400 --> 00:48:57,080
Speaker 4: that they held this team scored with for the last

983
00:48:57,120 --> 00:48:58,800
Speaker 4: three quarters. I mean, you get a pick six and

984
00:48:58,840 --> 00:49:00,480
Speaker 4: greena gets the ball back. It's not like when you

985
00:49:00,560 --> 00:49:03,319
Speaker 4: get a pick six, you know, it's not like that

986
00:49:03,360 --> 00:49:06,120
Speaker 4: should make the other team score less. They get the

987
00:49:06,120 --> 00:49:08,880
Speaker 4: ball right back. And you know, Aaron Rodgers says what

988
00:49:08,960 --> 00:49:12,080
Speaker 4: his first you know, multi interception game in forever? He

989
00:49:12,160 --> 00:49:14,560
Speaker 4: never does that, And I don't think people are talking

990
00:49:14,680 --> 00:49:18,080
Speaker 4: enough about that like that, that's impressive when you have

991
00:49:18,120 --> 00:49:20,720
Speaker 4: a team that's you're kind of in your prevent mode.

992
00:49:21,000 --> 00:49:22,839
Speaker 4: You know, you're up big, you're up twenty eight ten

993
00:49:22,880 --> 00:49:24,880
Speaker 4: in the second quarter, and you don't know at a

994
00:49:25,000 --> 00:49:27,680
Speaker 4: point in the second in the second quarter and the

995
00:49:27,719 --> 00:49:31,839
Speaker 4: second half, like this is this is an extremely good team.

996
00:49:31,920 --> 00:49:36,680
Speaker 4: They caught a bad break against against Chicago, but I

997
00:49:37,040 --> 00:49:40,520
Speaker 4: think this defense, you know, I love to get them

998
00:49:40,840 --> 00:49:43,319
Speaker 4: as their short favorite here because I think it's just

999
00:49:43,320 --> 00:49:46,560
Speaker 4: a matter of the Vegas Raiders, you know, getting good

1000
00:49:46,600 --> 00:49:48,759
Speaker 4: wins at the right times. If they had beat let's

1001
00:49:48,760 --> 00:49:52,719
Speaker 4: say Buffalo and well in New England, I guess would

1002
00:49:52,719 --> 00:49:54,600
Speaker 4: have been impressive. But like if they had be Buffalo,

1003
00:49:54,880 --> 00:49:57,319
Speaker 4: which they probably should have or had a better chance to,

1004
00:49:57,960 --> 00:50:00,880
Speaker 4: then you know, instead of Casey or maybe New Orleans,

1005
00:50:01,280 --> 00:50:04,720
Speaker 4: I think this wine is closer to like five and

1006
00:50:05,000 --> 00:50:07,080
Speaker 4: I don't really think there's much difference in this Vegas

1007
00:50:07,080 --> 00:50:10,120
Speaker 4: team either way, and no line struggles on the old line.

1008
00:50:10,160 --> 00:50:11,240
Speaker 4: So yeah, give me Tampa.

1009
00:50:11,800 --> 00:50:14,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, Tampa held green Bay. They had a hunted sixty

1010
00:50:14,400 --> 00:50:19,640
Speaker 3: nine nice interception interception return yards in the second quarter

1011
00:50:20,239 --> 00:50:23,440
Speaker 3: sixty nine interception returnyards, and they held green Bay to

1012
00:50:23,520 --> 00:50:26,080
Speaker 3: five total yards of offense. Five.

1013
00:50:26,400 --> 00:50:30,200
Speaker 4: Remember when I said this Tampa team kind of reminds

1014
00:50:30,239 --> 00:50:33,200
Speaker 4: me of the Niners last year, when it was around

1015
00:50:33,280 --> 00:50:35,839
Speaker 4: this time where I started feeling like, hey, like this

1016
00:50:35,880 --> 00:50:38,000
Speaker 4: team has a Super Bowl defense, And in the Niner

1017
00:50:38,040 --> 00:50:39,719
Speaker 4: it was the same narrative for the Niners. They like

1018
00:50:39,840 --> 00:50:41,799
Speaker 4: they go to play Aaron Rodgers and everyone's kind of

1019
00:50:41,840 --> 00:50:44,040
Speaker 4: like like because like that was a head scratching line.

1020
00:50:44,200 --> 00:50:46,640
Speaker 4: The fact that it closed at three in favor of

1021
00:50:46,640 --> 00:50:48,400
Speaker 4: the Packers. I know we were both on the Bucks,

1022
00:50:48,400 --> 00:50:50,400
Speaker 4: and I think we both had the Bucks favorite if

1023
00:50:50,400 --> 00:50:54,080
Speaker 4: I'm not mistaken in our power in our projected spreads

1024
00:50:54,080 --> 00:50:57,600
Speaker 4: which up on Action network dot com. But that line

1025
00:50:57,640 --> 00:51:02,000
Speaker 4: closes at three in the Packers favor and it just

1026
00:51:02,120 --> 00:51:05,839
Speaker 4: didn't make any sense. But it just kind of has

1027
00:51:05,840 --> 00:51:09,600
Speaker 4: that same feel where people are sweeping on just how

1028
00:51:09,640 --> 00:51:12,120
Speaker 4: are we this Bucks defense is maybe because it's been

1029
00:51:12,360 --> 00:51:15,200
Speaker 4: so long since the Bucks were good on defense, but

1030
00:51:15,320 --> 00:51:18,200
Speaker 4: remember this was a team that was top five in

1031
00:51:18,320 --> 00:51:23,400
Speaker 4: defense DVA last year. Even with Jamis, you know, throwing

1032
00:51:23,480 --> 00:51:25,640
Speaker 4: pick sick picks all around the yard and putting them

1033
00:51:25,680 --> 00:51:28,400
Speaker 4: in tough spots. This defense rose to the challenge. So

1034
00:51:29,120 --> 00:51:32,040
Speaker 4: I'm going to back to Tampa. Yeah, I'm back in Tampa. Well,

1035
00:51:32,040 --> 00:51:33,680
Speaker 4: I still can like we might not be able to

1036
00:51:33,680 --> 00:51:36,600
Speaker 4: get Tampa is like one of these short road favorites

1037
00:51:36,600 --> 00:51:40,360
Speaker 4: against the mediocre, solid team but little banged up. But

1038
00:51:40,600 --> 00:51:41,799
Speaker 4: you know, we might not be able to get this

1039
00:51:41,840 --> 00:51:43,799
Speaker 4: later in the year, So I think it's a good

1040
00:51:44,160 --> 00:51:49,200
Speaker 4: spot for Tampa. Soda recap. Stuck took the plunge with

1041
00:51:49,280 --> 00:51:52,640
Speaker 4: the New York Jets plus thirteen and a half against

1042
00:51:52,680 --> 00:51:56,080
Speaker 4: the Buffalo Bills. His number one pick was the Lions

1043
00:51:56,360 --> 00:51:59,719
Speaker 4: plus two and a half at the Atlanta Falcons. Like

1044
00:51:59,719 --> 00:52:03,000
Speaker 4: that and love the Browns minus three and it's not

1045
00:52:03,040 --> 00:52:09,000
Speaker 4: really a road game against the pressure deficient Cincinnati Bengals.

1046
00:52:10,040 --> 00:52:12,520
Speaker 4: Of course, Stuck disagrees with all my picks, but I

1047
00:52:12,600 --> 00:52:16,720
Speaker 4: went with Seattle minus three and a half road favorites

1048
00:52:16,760 --> 00:52:19,840
Speaker 4: coming off of bye. Just a great spot for Seattle.

1049
00:52:19,840 --> 00:52:22,040
Speaker 4: Not impressed with Arizona. They play a really bad game

1050
00:52:22,040 --> 00:52:26,960
Speaker 4: against Dallas. Don't be fooled Tennessee minus one and a

1051
00:52:27,120 --> 00:52:31,319
Speaker 4: half at bet MGM, the official odds provider of the podcast,

1052
00:52:31,800 --> 00:52:35,239
Speaker 4: and in my final pick was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1053
00:52:35,560 --> 00:52:39,799
Speaker 4: three point favorites in Vegas taking on the Raiders who

1054
00:52:39,840 --> 00:52:43,160
Speaker 4: may have some COVID issues. So be you know, monitor

1055
00:52:43,400 --> 00:52:46,200
Speaker 4: the status of that game. As Duck said, you know,

1056
00:52:46,360 --> 00:52:49,799
Speaker 4: worst case scenario, maybe it gets moved or postponed. So

1057
00:52:50,080 --> 00:52:52,239
Speaker 4: I will have to see. But it's up right now,

1058
00:52:52,239 --> 00:52:55,440
Speaker 4: it's on the board. So going with that, let's get

1059
00:52:55,480 --> 00:53:02,000
Speaker 4: into our favorite over underplays of the week. You had

1060
00:53:02,080 --> 00:53:05,080
Speaker 4: the first pick for the week seven Sunday six pack.

1061
00:53:05,440 --> 00:53:08,440
Speaker 4: I will take the liberty of going first with the total.

1062
00:53:09,200 --> 00:53:11,880
Speaker 4: I must say, this is a tough totals week for me.

1063
00:53:12,160 --> 00:53:14,680
Speaker 4: I like the Bears rams under I bet that, And

1064
00:53:14,760 --> 00:53:16,800
Speaker 4: I really don't want to get to invested in totals

1065
00:53:16,800 --> 00:53:19,160
Speaker 4: because I've been When I went back and looked at

1066
00:53:19,160 --> 00:53:21,920
Speaker 4: my record this year, it's all like it's all sizes

1067
00:53:22,000 --> 00:53:25,400
Speaker 4: and I must be like thirty percent or something on

1068
00:53:25,480 --> 00:53:29,560
Speaker 4: totals this year. It's a nightmare. For totals for me,

1069
00:53:29,640 --> 00:53:32,560
Speaker 4: but so kind of a tough week because the rams

1070
00:53:32,600 --> 00:53:35,000
Speaker 4: are on Monday night, so it doesn't count in the contest.

1071
00:53:35,920 --> 00:53:39,000
Speaker 4: The one I see the most value on and the

1072
00:53:39,040 --> 00:53:44,839
Speaker 4: only other total I bet is the Washington Dallas Cowboys

1073
00:53:45,200 --> 00:53:47,359
Speaker 4: under forty five and a half. I got it at

1074
00:53:47,400 --> 00:53:51,880
Speaker 4: forty six. I make it about forty four. Kyle Allen.

1075
00:53:52,239 --> 00:53:55,280
Speaker 4: I thought maybe he would be kind of an over quarterback.

1076
00:53:55,320 --> 00:53:58,839
Speaker 4: You know, Dwayne Haskins extremely inefficient. I thought maybe you'd

1077
00:53:58,840 --> 00:54:02,920
Speaker 4: get a little jew from Kyle Allen. I was mistaken.

1078
00:54:03,360 --> 00:54:07,320
Speaker 4: Allen's averaging a depth of target of five point four yards,

1079
00:54:07,480 --> 00:54:11,880
Speaker 4: his average completed past this season just three point nine yards.

1080
00:54:11,960 --> 00:54:15,239
Speaker 4: And then on the other side, Washington's been pretty low

1081
00:54:15,280 --> 00:54:18,640
Speaker 4: scoring team, you know, in terms of the combined points

1082
00:54:18,640 --> 00:54:21,440
Speaker 4: and the totals. They had that big game against Cleveland

1083
00:54:21,440 --> 00:54:24,360
Speaker 4: where Cleveland put up a bunch of points, but generally

1084
00:54:24,440 --> 00:54:27,200
Speaker 4: Washington's been on the lower scoring side. They do give

1085
00:54:27,280 --> 00:54:30,279
Speaker 4: up the highest average depth of target on defense ten

1086
00:54:30,320 --> 00:54:32,719
Speaker 4: point eight yards. Now number one. I think that's going

1087
00:54:32,760 --> 00:54:36,960
Speaker 4: to regress. There are obviously some some weaknesses in that secondary.

1088
00:54:37,040 --> 00:54:40,320
Speaker 4: But now we're talking about Andy Dallon and the Cowboys.

1089
00:54:40,360 --> 00:54:41,600
Speaker 4: What's another offensive lineman.

1090
00:54:41,880 --> 00:54:44,759
Speaker 3: Yeah, Brandon Knight. They're left tackle. He had arthurscopic mee surgery,

1091
00:54:44,760 --> 00:54:47,640
Speaker 3: im Zack Martin's concussion, which means they might be down

1092
00:54:47,680 --> 00:54:51,520
Speaker 3: to cam Irving, Connor Williams, a rookie center, Connor McGovern,

1093
00:54:51,640 --> 00:54:54,359
Speaker 3: and Terrence Steele as they're starting off right.

1094
00:54:54,480 --> 00:54:57,200
Speaker 4: And I would say the second most head scratching line

1095
00:54:57,239 --> 00:55:00,480
Speaker 4: of the week for me was the Cowboy Well again,

1096
00:55:00,520 --> 00:55:01,920
Speaker 4: I guess shouldn't say that because the Covers are a

1097
00:55:01,960 --> 00:55:04,560
Speaker 4: big public team, so but I was kind of surprised that,

1098
00:55:04,920 --> 00:55:07,960
Speaker 4: you know, I actually grabbed Arizona earlier in the week

1099
00:55:08,160 --> 00:55:10,320
Speaker 4: at MAUS two and ended up looking like a fish

1100
00:55:10,719 --> 00:55:13,080
Speaker 4: because the line goes all the way in the other way.

1101
00:55:13,160 --> 00:55:16,239
Speaker 4: So I bet it again. But I just thought it

1102
00:55:16,360 --> 00:55:18,600
Speaker 4: was odd that, you know, like people forget that Andy

1103
00:55:18,640 --> 00:55:21,040
Speaker 4: Daalton was just terrible under pressure and what does he do.

1104
00:55:21,280 --> 00:55:23,400
Speaker 4: He comes out and he checks the ball down for

1105
00:55:23,600 --> 00:55:26,480
Speaker 4: like zero yarders to Zekiel Elliott, Like I'm like four

1106
00:55:26,560 --> 00:55:28,800
Speaker 4: of the first like six plays of the game, and

1107
00:55:29,360 --> 00:55:31,879
Speaker 4: his receivers didn't help him at all. Michael Gallup, I don't,

1108
00:55:31,880 --> 00:55:34,799
Speaker 4: I don't know what that was just a really bad

1109
00:55:34,880 --> 00:55:36,960
Speaker 4: spot for Dallas. I think there will be a lot

1110
00:55:37,000 --> 00:55:38,960
Speaker 4: more focused this week. But this is this has got

1111
00:55:39,080 --> 00:55:41,040
Speaker 4: to be a Zeke week. He has to take this

1112
00:55:41,200 --> 00:55:44,200
Speaker 4: team on his shoulders. This is the spot for Zeke

1113
00:55:44,280 --> 00:55:47,759
Speaker 4: to avenge all that went down last week, the two

1114
00:55:47,840 --> 00:55:50,920
Speaker 4: fumbles putting the team in a whole early. I expect

1115
00:55:51,040 --> 00:55:54,640
Speaker 4: them to ride Zeke heavily. I expect him to run

1116
00:55:54,680 --> 00:55:57,520
Speaker 4: the ball a lot. I think that they will try

1117
00:55:57,560 --> 00:55:59,279
Speaker 4: to take a shot or two down the field and

1118
00:56:00,239 --> 00:56:02,600
Speaker 4: you know, hopefully it doesn't hit. It's Andy Dalton, so

1119
00:56:03,239 --> 00:56:05,120
Speaker 4: I think, you know, at least there's kind of the

1120
00:56:05,160 --> 00:56:07,880
Speaker 4: odds are in favor that it's still even with that

1121
00:56:08,920 --> 00:56:14,200
Speaker 4: weak football team secondary, it's not necessarily a situation where

1122
00:56:14,480 --> 00:56:16,840
Speaker 4: Dallas may even want to pick on it after the

1123
00:56:16,880 --> 00:56:19,640
Speaker 4: way they played, you know, throwing the football last week,

1124
00:56:19,640 --> 00:56:22,400
Speaker 4: where they needed you know, fifty some odd passes just

1125
00:56:22,440 --> 00:56:24,760
Speaker 4: to get you know, two hundred and sixty six passing

1126
00:56:24,840 --> 00:56:28,400
Speaker 4: yards and one touchdown that they shouldn't have even tried

1127
00:56:28,440 --> 00:56:29,719
Speaker 4: for at the end. I mean, it was just it

1128
00:56:29,840 --> 00:56:33,040
Speaker 4: was just a shit show. I expect a better performance,

1129
00:56:33,320 --> 00:56:36,440
Speaker 4: but I expect a better performance in the sense of

1130
00:56:37,280 --> 00:56:42,400
Speaker 4: control the game, playball, control run zeke a lot. The

1131
00:56:42,560 --> 00:56:45,280
Speaker 4: football team is not going to really test you downfield.

1132
00:56:45,360 --> 00:56:47,400
Speaker 4: On the other side, maybe you take a couple of

1133
00:56:47,400 --> 00:56:49,279
Speaker 4: shots and you see Dallas hit a shot or two.

1134
00:56:49,320 --> 00:56:51,399
Speaker 4: But even so, I think this game has a tough

1135
00:56:51,480 --> 00:56:54,040
Speaker 4: time getting over the total just because of the way

1136
00:56:54,080 --> 00:56:55,640
Speaker 4: I expect the game script to go. And this is

1137
00:56:55,800 --> 00:56:59,320
Speaker 4: probably and I shouldn't say. You know, Dallas did struggle

1138
00:56:59,360 --> 00:57:02,040
Speaker 4: against the Giants on defense, but there was like two

1139
00:57:03,000 --> 00:57:07,719
Speaker 4: defensive touchdowns in that game. And you mentioned the under

1140
00:57:07,960 --> 00:57:10,279
Speaker 4: starting to come back to the meet a little bit,

1141
00:57:10,760 --> 00:57:13,000
Speaker 4: and you look at the Cowboys, and I think you're

1142
00:57:13,000 --> 00:57:14,920
Speaker 4: going to start to see that happening with Andy Dalton.

1143
00:57:15,560 --> 00:57:17,160
Speaker 4: You're gonna start to see some aggression to the meet.

1144
00:57:17,200 --> 00:57:19,840
Speaker 4: I mean, they were just an over machine earlier in

1145
00:57:19,880 --> 00:57:22,560
Speaker 4: the season. With Dak Prescott bringing him back, I think

1146
00:57:22,640 --> 00:57:25,120
Speaker 4: this may actually be a situation where they don't fall

1147
00:57:25,200 --> 00:57:27,520
Speaker 4: behind early, which I think actually helps the total stay

1148
00:57:27,600 --> 00:57:33,080
Speaker 4: under as well. So like the Cowboys football team under

1149
00:57:33,280 --> 00:57:33,960
Speaker 4: forty five and a.

1150
00:57:33,960 --> 00:57:37,800
Speaker 3: Half, Washington's offense is dreadful and their defensive line should

1151
00:57:37,840 --> 00:57:41,400
Speaker 3: dominate this makeshift Cowboys offensive line. The one thing I

1152
00:57:41,440 --> 00:57:44,400
Speaker 3: wish we would have saw last week is what Dallas

1153
00:57:44,440 --> 00:57:47,040
Speaker 3: will look like under Andy Dalton from a pace perspective.

1154
00:57:47,120 --> 00:57:50,760
Speaker 3: Dallas's speed racer before Dalton took over, I think, and

1155
00:57:50,840 --> 00:57:53,360
Speaker 3: I project them to be a lot slower, a run

1156
00:57:53,480 --> 00:57:56,400
Speaker 3: first team. They want to establish the run and then

1157
00:57:56,560 --> 00:57:59,160
Speaker 3: set up Dalton for some play action with their receivers.

1158
00:57:59,720 --> 00:58:03,040
Speaker 3: But you know, Zeke fumbles the ball twice early in

1159
00:58:03,040 --> 00:58:05,080
Speaker 3: the game and they got down fourteen to nothing. You

1160
00:58:05,240 --> 00:58:06,680
Speaker 3: kind of have to throw more and you kind of

1161
00:58:06,720 --> 00:58:09,000
Speaker 3: have to abandon your game plan. But I do think

1162
00:58:09,040 --> 00:58:11,400
Speaker 3: that that's what we'll see, especially against Washington's defensive line,

1163
00:58:11,440 --> 00:58:14,040
Speaker 3: which should be in the backfield all day. Fuller's playing

1164
00:58:14,120 --> 00:58:16,840
Speaker 3: really well for them, but the rest of the secondary

1165
00:58:16,960 --> 00:58:19,680
Speaker 3: leaves a lot to be desired. But yeah, but Washington

1166
00:58:19,680 --> 00:58:21,520
Speaker 3: plays fast too. That's my only concern here is that

1167
00:58:21,560 --> 00:58:24,520
Speaker 3: both teams are fast from a pace perspective, and they

1168
00:58:24,560 --> 00:58:27,560
Speaker 3: have two quarterbacks potentially could give the ball away for

1169
00:58:27,720 --> 00:58:29,960
Speaker 3: some key turnovers. Then, depending on where they are, it

1170
00:58:30,000 --> 00:58:32,480
Speaker 3: could help or hurt the over under. But I lean

1171
00:58:32,520 --> 00:58:33,800
Speaker 3: that way too. I might end up joining you.

1172
00:58:34,800 --> 00:58:36,440
Speaker 4: I got a crazy stuff for you just before we

1173
00:58:36,560 --> 00:58:39,440
Speaker 4: move on. Okay, so Dallas, right, you mentioned they've been

1174
00:58:39,520 --> 00:58:43,560
Speaker 4: speed racer in pace. Number one in overall seconds per play,

1175
00:58:43,920 --> 00:58:47,480
Speaker 4: number one in first half seconds per play, number one

1176
00:58:47,720 --> 00:58:50,880
Speaker 4: in second half seconds per play, number one when the

1177
00:58:50,920 --> 00:58:53,840
Speaker 4: game is within six points, number one when they trail

1178
00:58:53,920 --> 00:58:58,360
Speaker 4: by seven plus number one in situation neutral. The one

1179
00:58:58,920 --> 00:59:02,160
Speaker 4: spot they're not Noumber one is when weeding by seven

1180
00:59:02,240 --> 00:59:05,160
Speaker 4: or more, they're twenty fifth. And this, even though there

1181
00:59:05,400 --> 00:59:07,320
Speaker 4: is ugly as they were last week, might be the

1182
00:59:07,400 --> 00:59:09,800
Speaker 4: best game for them to actually build the commanding lead

1183
00:59:10,080 --> 00:59:11,760
Speaker 4: that they've had in some time, because of course Dak

1184
00:59:11,760 --> 00:59:13,560
Speaker 4: goes down against the Giants and all that. You know,

1185
00:59:14,080 --> 00:59:16,960
Speaker 4: the Shenanigan's happened with the return before that, So just

1186
00:59:17,040 --> 00:59:19,480
Speaker 4: something to keep in mind. If the regression hits Dallas,

1187
00:59:19,800 --> 00:59:22,800
Speaker 4: it will hit it hard because they're way ahead of

1188
00:59:22,840 --> 00:59:24,520
Speaker 4: the top of the week in every other situation than

1189
00:59:24,560 --> 00:59:27,480
Speaker 4: the one they've actually been in but could be in

1190
00:59:27,760 --> 00:59:28,280
Speaker 4: in this game.

1191
00:59:28,520 --> 00:59:31,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I agree with that total. For mine favorite

1192
00:59:31,400 --> 00:59:34,040
Speaker 3: total of the week, I'm going with the Green Bay

1193
00:59:34,280 --> 00:59:39,880
Speaker 3: Packers in Houston, Texans over fifty six and a half

1194
00:59:40,600 --> 00:59:44,800
Speaker 3: at bet MGM Steven get a fifty six, but I'd

1195
00:59:44,880 --> 00:59:47,800
Speaker 3: make this closer to fifty eight after doing some digging

1196
00:59:47,960 --> 00:59:51,400
Speaker 3: We saw the Green Bay defense last week. Look they played,

1197
00:59:51,800 --> 00:59:53,280
Speaker 3: I mean the great Bay defense. If you look at

1198
00:59:53,280 --> 00:59:55,480
Speaker 3: the lot of the underlying metrics, it's awful. They're bottom

1199
00:59:55,520 --> 00:59:57,760
Speaker 3: five in the NFL. We know they can't stop the

1200
00:59:57,840 --> 01:00:00,600
Speaker 3: run and we know they're not getting pressure. So I

1201
01:00:00,680 --> 01:00:03,640
Speaker 3: think Houston's offense is gonna have success with the air.

1202
01:00:03,720 --> 01:00:06,440
Speaker 3: Deshaun Watson, he's gonna have a clean pocket. When he does,

1203
01:00:06,520 --> 01:00:10,040
Speaker 3: he makes plays and Houston plays faster, which is something

1204
01:00:10,120 --> 01:00:12,959
Speaker 3: to take note of. And it seems like under Romeo

1205
01:00:13,040 --> 01:00:16,240
Speaker 3: Crenell they're gonna play more aggressive and make smarter strategic decisions.

1206
01:00:16,240 --> 01:00:17,760
Speaker 3: Two weeks ago, they went for fourth down to put

1207
01:00:17,800 --> 01:00:19,840
Speaker 3: that game boy instead of kicking the field goal. Last

1208
01:00:19,840 --> 01:00:22,480
Speaker 3: week they went for two, which I agreed with, even

1209
01:00:22,480 --> 01:00:25,080
Speaker 3: though they didn't get it. The Houston defense is just

1210
01:00:25,160 --> 01:00:27,800
Speaker 3: look Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers put up all those gaudy

1211
01:00:27,840 --> 01:00:30,600
Speaker 3: numbers against backup we were saying, and it's not Packers

1212
01:00:30,640 --> 01:00:32,800
Speaker 3: aren't this good. There's a regression coming for Rogers. He

1213
01:00:32,960 --> 01:00:35,000
Speaker 3: was playing a lot better. The offense looked a lot smoother,

1214
01:00:35,160 --> 01:00:39,520
Speaker 3: but they're playing awful defenses. Backup cornerbacks, rookie cornerbacks well

1215
01:00:39,520 --> 01:00:42,200
Speaker 3: guess what. You get a really bad defense here that

1216
01:00:42,240 --> 01:00:45,840
Speaker 3: doesn't get pressure. The front seven is decimated. I mean

1217
01:00:45,920 --> 01:00:48,480
Speaker 3: it's just JJ Watt, that's it. Now. Maybe he could

1218
01:00:48,520 --> 01:00:51,680
Speaker 3: take advantage of Bachtiari's injury, but they're not getting pressure.

1219
01:00:51,760 --> 01:00:54,720
Speaker 3: They can't cover it's there. They can't defend the run.

1220
01:00:55,000 --> 01:00:56,560
Speaker 3: Green Bay should be able to do whatever it once

1221
01:00:56,640 --> 01:00:58,960
Speaker 3: and on third down when Houston goes back and sits

1222
01:00:59,000 --> 01:01:01,720
Speaker 3: in these zones, Rogers is gonna find open receivers all day.

1223
01:01:02,240 --> 01:01:04,000
Speaker 3: Green Bay should move the ball up and down the field.

1224
01:01:04,040 --> 01:01:07,600
Speaker 3: Houston should answer. This should look like the Titans Texans

1225
01:01:07,680 --> 01:01:10,840
Speaker 3: games last week. This Texans defense is atrocious and the

1226
01:01:10,920 --> 01:01:12,880
Speaker 3: offensive line is gonna put up points against the green

1227
01:01:12,960 --> 01:01:15,840
Speaker 3: Bay defense. That isn't that good either. It's amazing. I

1228
01:01:15,880 --> 01:01:18,240
Speaker 3: mean they saw Vernon Hargreve's out there. Ever since the

1229
01:01:18,360 --> 01:01:20,560
Speaker 3: Bucks cut the cut Hargery's, by the way, they became

1230
01:01:20,600 --> 01:01:22,480
Speaker 3: like the best defense in the league, and then Hargary's

1231
01:01:22,480 --> 01:01:26,240
Speaker 3: goes to Texans and then the worst defensive league. It's like, no,

1232
01:01:26,560 --> 01:01:29,680
Speaker 3: everyone just wants to keep playing this guy. I know

1233
01:01:29,760 --> 01:01:31,480
Speaker 3: he had a lot of talent, was highly talented, but

1234
01:01:31,560 --> 01:01:33,320
Speaker 3: it's just not working out. Yeah, give me the over.

1235
01:01:33,320 --> 01:01:35,160
Speaker 3: I think there's a points best both teams gets the thirty?

1236
01:01:35,520 --> 01:01:39,120
Speaker 4: Are you at all concerned about Batiari? Because that's the

1237
01:01:39,160 --> 01:01:41,560
Speaker 4: only thing that gives me pauseive and I bet green Bay. Actually,

1238
01:01:41,600 --> 01:01:43,000
Speaker 4: I think I even I like green Bay even a

1239
01:01:43,040 --> 01:01:45,400
Speaker 4: little more than the total. I know there's a lot

1240
01:01:45,480 --> 01:01:47,040
Speaker 4: of money coming in on the over.

1241
01:01:47,760 --> 01:01:47,920
Speaker 3: Too.

1242
01:01:48,200 --> 01:01:50,840
Speaker 4: Bad defenses that don't get pressure should be a lot

1243
01:01:50,880 --> 01:01:55,480
Speaker 4: of points. All right. This week's coaches pep Talk, we

1244
01:01:55,640 --> 01:01:57,920
Speaker 4: saved it. We usually do it earlier. There was no

1245
01:01:58,040 --> 01:01:59,840
Speaker 4: Thursday Night last week, so I said, hey, you know what,

1246
01:02:00,440 --> 01:02:03,480
Speaker 4: let's save it again because I want to dedicate this

1247
01:02:03,680 --> 01:02:09,040
Speaker 4: one to the Dallas Cowboys. This coach's pep talk is

1248
01:02:09,640 --> 01:02:15,400
Speaker 4: from the nineteen seventy six Classic Film Network and goes

1249
01:02:15,440 --> 01:02:16,240
Speaker 4: out to the Cowboys.

1250
01:02:17,400 --> 01:02:18,880
Speaker 3: I don't have to tell you things are bad.

1251
01:02:19,320 --> 01:02:22,120
Speaker 4: Everybody knows things are bad. There's nobody anywhere seems to

1252
01:02:22,160 --> 01:02:23,440
Speaker 4: know what to do, and there's no end to it.

1253
01:02:24,080 --> 01:02:26,160
Speaker 3: We know things are bad, worse than bad.

1254
01:02:26,520 --> 01:02:28,680
Speaker 4: It's like everything everywhere is going crazy, and all we

1255
01:02:28,760 --> 01:02:30,160
Speaker 4: say is just leave us alone.

1256
01:02:30,280 --> 01:02:32,360
Speaker 3: Well, I'm not good to leave you alone. I want

1257
01:02:32,440 --> 01:02:33,200
Speaker 3: you to get mad.

1258
01:02:33,600 --> 01:02:35,439
Speaker 4: You've got to say I'm a human being.

1259
01:02:35,640 --> 01:02:40,000
Speaker 3: God damn it, my life's value. I want you to

1260
01:02:40,080 --> 01:02:40,720
Speaker 3: get up now.

1261
01:02:41,480 --> 01:02:43,080
Speaker 4: I want all of you to get up out of

1262
01:02:43,120 --> 01:02:47,040
Speaker 4: your chairs and go to the window, open it and

1263
01:02:47,200 --> 01:02:50,800
Speaker 4: stick your head out and yell ahi as bad as hell.

1264
01:02:51,080 --> 01:02:52,960
Speaker 3: I do take this anymore.

1265
01:02:53,720 --> 01:02:57,240
Speaker 4: All right, let's get into our favorite teasers of the week.

1266
01:02:57,920 --> 01:03:01,919
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, point teasers, all.

1267
01:03:01,880 --> 01:03:05,720
Speaker 4: Right, Stuck, For anyone not familiar, teasers are when you

1268
01:03:05,840 --> 01:03:09,560
Speaker 4: combine two or more bets, and each bet that you

1269
01:03:09,720 --> 01:03:12,400
Speaker 4: make you get an extra six points towards the spread,

1270
01:03:12,440 --> 01:03:14,240
Speaker 4: and you can get other numbers, but six points is

1271
01:03:14,320 --> 01:03:17,240
Speaker 4: generally the standard. And here we each pick a two

1272
01:03:17,360 --> 01:03:20,960
Speaker 4: team teaser. So, for example, if you're teasing an eight

1273
01:03:21,040 --> 01:03:23,520
Speaker 4: point favorite, they become a two point favorite, and an

1274
01:03:23,560 --> 01:03:28,800
Speaker 4: eight point underdog teased by six becomes a fourteen point underdog.

1275
01:03:28,880 --> 01:03:31,400
Speaker 4: Stuck has a lot of great content on the Action

1276
01:03:31,520 --> 01:03:34,880
Speaker 4: Network about how to tease and when you have the edge,

1277
01:03:35,520 --> 01:03:38,760
Speaker 4: you know, teasing through those key numbers. Stuck, where you're

1278
01:03:38,800 --> 01:03:41,919
Speaker 4: going for your teasers? For your teaser in week seven?

1279
01:03:42,480 --> 01:03:45,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's four good teaser options out there. You're gonna

1280
01:03:45,440 --> 01:03:47,040
Speaker 3: go the one I also like, so I'll throw out

1281
01:03:47,080 --> 01:03:51,280
Speaker 3: another one. I actually played. I thik yours, But another

1282
01:03:51,320 --> 01:03:53,959
Speaker 3: one that I played is San Fran plus eight plus

1283
01:03:54,040 --> 01:03:56,080
Speaker 3: eight and a half against New England. I can't believe

1284
01:03:56,120 --> 01:03:58,000
Speaker 3: I sucked on this open or plus five and a half.

1285
01:03:58,200 --> 01:04:00,439
Speaker 3: I know it's a bounced back spot for bit Bill,

1286
01:04:00,520 --> 01:04:04,320
Speaker 3: but after two losses, but San Frand's healthier now. On

1287
01:04:04,320 --> 01:04:06,200
Speaker 3: the office side of this New England offense just doesn't

1288
01:04:06,240 --> 01:04:07,680
Speaker 3: have it. The only time they have it is when

1289
01:04:07,680 --> 01:04:10,120
Speaker 3: they play Seattle and the offensive line is a mess

1290
01:04:10,280 --> 01:04:13,120
Speaker 3: right now. I mean, they just can't throw it downfield,

1291
01:04:13,200 --> 01:04:15,280
Speaker 3: and San franc can take away your run, they can

1292
01:04:15,360 --> 01:04:18,680
Speaker 3: take away short passing attack even with their you know,

1293
01:04:18,840 --> 01:04:20,360
Speaker 3: some of the injuries in the secondary, but they're a

1294
01:04:20,400 --> 01:04:23,040
Speaker 3: lot healthier now. This should be a lower scoring game,

1295
01:04:23,120 --> 01:04:25,040
Speaker 3: total down to forty three and a half, so that

1296
01:04:25,280 --> 01:04:28,360
Speaker 3: makes the teasing the dog even more valuable going from

1297
01:04:28,400 --> 01:04:30,439
Speaker 3: two to eight. So give me San France plus eight

1298
01:04:30,640 --> 01:04:33,480
Speaker 3: and then I'll throw the Chargers in there minus one

1299
01:04:33,520 --> 01:04:35,840
Speaker 3: and a half teasing down through seven, six, four and

1300
01:04:35,960 --> 01:04:39,360
Speaker 3: three against the Jags. Jags are just terrible. I mean,

1301
01:04:39,480 --> 01:04:42,720
Speaker 3: this defense is horrendous. They give up thirty to everybody.

1302
01:04:42,960 --> 01:04:44,800
Speaker 3: They let everyone get their first win against them. This

1303
01:04:44,840 --> 01:04:48,320
Speaker 3: team is awful. It's only the Jets are worse. Chargers

1304
01:04:48,600 --> 01:04:51,840
Speaker 3: coming off of a bye as well here at home,

1305
01:04:52,320 --> 01:04:55,960
Speaker 3: and look, Dave, justin Herbert, why aren't we screaming about him?

1306
01:04:56,000 --> 01:04:59,600
Speaker 3: We scream about Joe Burrow like I like Joe Burrow,

1307
01:04:59,640 --> 01:05:01,600
Speaker 3: but all he does to check it down. He's under

1308
01:05:01,680 --> 01:05:03,919
Speaker 3: attack every play. There's not much he can do. Start

1309
01:05:03,960 --> 01:05:07,040
Speaker 3: screaming about Herbert. I mean he's doing very well under

1310
01:05:07,080 --> 01:05:10,400
Speaker 3: pressure too, which Burrow is, and he's making some unbelievable

1311
01:05:10,440 --> 01:05:12,920
Speaker 3: throws down the field. He lost to Brady and the

1312
01:05:12,960 --> 01:05:15,400
Speaker 3: Bucks in a game they could have won. They don't fumble,

1313
01:05:15,520 --> 01:05:17,000
Speaker 3: and look how good the Bucks of Look that was

1314
01:05:17,040 --> 01:05:19,360
Speaker 3: in Tampa. They ended up losing by seven just because

1315
01:05:19,680 --> 01:05:21,880
Speaker 3: awful fumble at the end of the half. Then they

1316
01:05:21,960 --> 01:05:24,080
Speaker 3: lose to Breeze by three in a game they could

1317
01:05:24,080 --> 01:05:26,360
Speaker 3: have won. You know, before that, they lost to Carolina

1318
01:05:26,400 --> 01:05:28,880
Speaker 3: by five in a game that they probably could have won.

1319
01:05:28,960 --> 01:05:32,000
Speaker 3: And he basically did beat Kansas City. If the reps

1320
01:05:32,040 --> 01:05:35,000
Speaker 3: called Tyreek Hill for taking a penalty for taking off

1321
01:05:35,040 --> 01:05:37,000
Speaker 3: his helmet, that didn't allow Kansas City to go for two.

1322
01:05:37,400 --> 01:05:40,880
Speaker 3: So Herbert's been really good. Chargers are getting healthier on defense.

1323
01:05:41,280 --> 01:05:43,120
Speaker 3: I think the Bible served them well. They should beat

1324
01:05:43,120 --> 01:05:47,000
Speaker 3: the Jags here. So Chargers and forty nine ers.

1325
01:05:47,160 --> 01:05:51,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, that's a great call. There's only seven quarterbacks this

1326
01:05:51,440 --> 01:05:55,160
Speaker 4: year better in ad justin netyards per attempt than Justin Herbert, Wilson,

1327
01:05:55,240 --> 01:06:00,560
Speaker 4: Derek Carr playing well, Mahomes, Tannehill, Rogers, Watson, and Josh

1328
01:06:00,640 --> 01:06:03,560
Speaker 4: Allen the usual suspects, and then Justin Herbert is eighth,

1329
01:06:04,200 --> 01:06:08,080
Speaker 4: seven point eighty five adjusted netyards per attempt, is playing

1330
01:06:08,120 --> 01:06:10,440
Speaker 4: extremely well. At first, I was worried because you know,

1331
01:06:10,520 --> 01:06:12,440
Speaker 4: he was kind of making these these big plays to

1332
01:06:12,560 --> 01:06:16,320
Speaker 4: these obscure receivers. But the more I look at it,

1333
01:06:16,440 --> 01:06:19,200
Speaker 4: it's like, Okay, he's just a playmaker if he can

1334
01:06:19,200 --> 01:06:23,000
Speaker 4: get touchdowns out of Donald Parham and Jalen Dighton, and

1335
01:06:23,480 --> 01:06:26,200
Speaker 4: you know, like like every week it seems like some

1336
01:06:26,320 --> 01:06:29,880
Speaker 4: obscure Charger receiver is catching a long touchdown from Justin Herbert.

1337
01:06:29,960 --> 01:06:32,800
Speaker 4: So I like that call a lot. I'm going with

1338
01:06:33,080 --> 01:06:37,640
Speaker 4: the Detroit Lions teasing them up to eight and a

1339
01:06:37,680 --> 01:06:40,880
Speaker 4: half like that spot. I think they could actually went

1340
01:06:40,920 --> 01:06:45,040
Speaker 4: out right in the spot again, Atlanta. The magic of

1341
01:06:45,200 --> 01:06:47,160
Speaker 4: dan Quinn being gone is gonna wear off sooner early.

1342
01:06:47,280 --> 01:06:50,680
Speaker 4: It's not a good team. And teasing the New Orleans

1343
01:06:50,720 --> 01:06:53,600
Speaker 4: Saints down to one and a half. This is the

1344
01:06:53,640 --> 01:06:56,640
Speaker 4: game not really getting talked about much, kind of just

1345
01:06:56,840 --> 01:06:59,880
Speaker 4: one of these divisional matchups that no one's really checking forth.

1346
01:07:00,000 --> 01:07:02,120
Speaker 4: Actually after the Panthers had a wet down against the Bears.

1347
01:07:02,760 --> 01:07:05,480
Speaker 4: I think the Saints will take care of business here Carolina.

1348
01:07:05,720 --> 01:07:08,640
Speaker 4: They might get Samuel back, which will help. But I think,

1349
01:07:08,720 --> 01:07:11,400
Speaker 4: you know, the time to sell on Carolina was after

1350
01:07:11,520 --> 01:07:14,240
Speaker 4: that Falcons game, which was a great spot for them

1351
01:07:14,320 --> 01:07:16,040
Speaker 4: to come in and steal a win and get dan

1352
01:07:16,160 --> 01:07:18,080
Speaker 4: Quin fired. And then I don't think they're going to

1353
01:07:18,120 --> 01:07:20,840
Speaker 4: play as well against teams like Chicago that play well

1354
01:07:20,880 --> 01:07:25,080
Speaker 4: on defense, or a team like the Warwins can who

1355
01:07:25,160 --> 01:07:26,840
Speaker 4: can put up points and run up the score. And

1356
01:07:27,160 --> 01:07:30,000
Speaker 4: Michael Thomas is going to be back for the Warwins,

1357
01:07:30,000 --> 01:07:33,200
Speaker 4: which is a huge help. And Carolina really gets nothing

1358
01:07:33,920 --> 01:07:36,320
Speaker 4: in terms of pressure. They have five sacks on the year,

1359
01:07:36,400 --> 01:07:37,720
Speaker 4: they've played six games.

1360
01:07:38,240 --> 01:07:41,160
Speaker 3: Do the math. Yeah, although Michael Toombs might not be

1361
01:07:41,240 --> 01:07:43,200
Speaker 3: back now he pops up with the hamstring today. So

1362
01:07:43,760 --> 01:07:46,120
Speaker 3: but even so, that's why I like teasing. I mean,

1363
01:07:46,160 --> 01:07:49,080
Speaker 3: Peyton's seventeen to one overall in this past eighteen games

1364
01:07:49,120 --> 01:07:52,400
Speaker 3: in October sixteen one to one against the spread. And

1365
01:07:52,800 --> 01:07:55,080
Speaker 3: there are Saints off of a bye here, so you

1366
01:07:55,080 --> 01:07:56,960
Speaker 3: would think they're going to get a little healthier. I

1367
01:07:57,080 --> 01:07:58,960
Speaker 3: would assume Thomas plays, but he did pop up the

1368
01:07:58,960 --> 01:08:02,600
Speaker 3: injury report now with a hamstring issue. But good coaches

1369
01:08:02,640 --> 01:08:05,040
Speaker 3: off of a bye. This is where I think bides

1370
01:08:05,040 --> 01:08:07,680
Speaker 3: with the most diable read Belichick, Peyton Harball sixty five

1371
01:08:07,720 --> 01:08:10,240
Speaker 3: percent against the spread after buy and Peyton in his

1372
01:08:10,320 --> 01:08:13,600
Speaker 3: career thirty six and sixteen against the spread in October.

1373
01:08:13,960 --> 01:08:16,320
Speaker 3: This is his month. I agree with you there, all right.

1374
01:08:17,000 --> 01:08:20,080
Speaker 4: So teasers just to recap, so start going with the

1375
01:08:20,160 --> 01:08:24,639
Speaker 4: Niners and Chargers. I'm going with the Lions and the Saints.

1376
01:08:25,280 --> 01:08:28,880
Speaker 4: Now let's get into our money line underdog.

1377
01:08:28,560 --> 01:08:36,800
Speaker 2: Parlay, turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for

1378
01:08:37,000 --> 01:08:38,479
Speaker 2: the money line parlay.

1379
01:08:40,000 --> 01:08:44,439
Speaker 4: This segment is where we each take a money line

1380
01:08:44,640 --> 01:08:48,120
Speaker 4: underdog and create a little parways. Hopefully it hits for

1381
01:08:48,200 --> 01:08:50,960
Speaker 4: anyone out there that wants to get a little frisky

1382
01:08:51,040 --> 01:08:55,360
Speaker 4: with their betting action and not play it so straightforward. Stuck,

1383
01:08:55,800 --> 01:08:59,120
Speaker 4: who are you going with for your dog this week.

1384
01:08:59,600 --> 01:09:02,960
Speaker 3: Give me Detroit. I think it's a coin flip game.

1385
01:09:03,240 --> 01:09:04,320
Speaker 3: I'll take the lines.

1386
01:09:05,080 --> 01:09:13,560
Speaker 4: Hell, Hello Detroit, I am going to go with the

1387
01:09:14,800 --> 01:09:18,040
Speaker 4: San Francisco forty nine ers. I think that this Patriots

1388
01:09:18,080 --> 01:09:21,400
Speaker 4: team is usually one that you trust, but this is

1389
01:09:21,479 --> 01:09:25,360
Speaker 4: clearly not the same team. And this Niner defense with

1390
01:09:26,240 --> 01:09:28,599
Speaker 4: you know, healthy cornerbacks and mostly coming back and they

1391
01:09:28,600 --> 01:09:30,880
Speaker 4: don't have to play practice squad Brian Allen who just

1392
01:09:31,040 --> 01:09:34,120
Speaker 4: got picked on all game by Miami. This defense is

1393
01:09:34,120 --> 01:09:35,920
Speaker 4: still a jit. Even though they don't have Bosa. You know,

1394
01:09:36,000 --> 01:09:39,679
Speaker 4: they got Greenwall back. This is not a pushover defense

1395
01:09:39,720 --> 01:09:43,599
Speaker 4: by any means. Number eleven and Dvoa the Patriots apparently

1396
01:09:43,640 --> 01:09:46,320
Speaker 4: they're managing Edelman's reps. He's dealing with a knee injury.

1397
01:09:46,400 --> 01:09:49,400
Speaker 4: They have nothing at receiver. If Edelman's not playing at

1398
01:09:49,400 --> 01:09:51,720
Speaker 4: a high level, I mean Demre Bird. This guy could

1399
01:09:51,720 --> 01:09:54,040
Speaker 4: have been out. Like if the Patriots don't sign Demere Bird,

1400
01:09:54,600 --> 01:09:56,960
Speaker 4: is he in the league? Is he a starter on

1401
01:09:57,040 --> 01:10:00,839
Speaker 4: any other team? Probably not. This team is is struggling

1402
01:10:00,880 --> 01:10:02,800
Speaker 4: on offense. It should be a low scoring game, but

1403
01:10:03,400 --> 01:10:06,439
Speaker 4: I wouldn't be surprised here to see Shanahan even though

1404
01:10:06,600 --> 01:10:09,920
Speaker 4: going across the coast. I wouldn't be surprised here to

1405
01:10:09,960 --> 01:10:13,160
Speaker 4: see that the Niners kind of pick up some ground.

1406
01:10:13,560 --> 01:10:16,120
Speaker 4: I believe they're last in the West or tied for

1407
01:10:16,240 --> 01:10:19,679
Speaker 4: last at this point, so they'll be motivated. Kyle Shanahan

1408
01:10:20,320 --> 01:10:22,960
Speaker 4: twelve and seven small sample, obviously, but twelve and seven

1409
01:10:23,040 --> 01:10:25,559
Speaker 4: his career as a road underdog, nineteen and thirteen against

1410
01:10:25,560 --> 01:10:30,320
Speaker 4: the spread overall as an underdog, So Belichick's not the

1411
01:10:30,400 --> 01:10:32,720
Speaker 4: only one that has some trends working for him in

1412
01:10:32,840 --> 01:10:35,519
Speaker 4: this spot. I just think the Patriots are reeling right

1413
01:10:35,600 --> 01:10:38,479
Speaker 4: now and the Niners are heating up. All right, Let's

1414
01:10:38,520 --> 01:10:41,000
Speaker 4: finish it up with the best of the rest, and

1415
01:10:41,400 --> 01:10:43,800
Speaker 4: then we'll get our survivor pick and get out of here.

1416
01:10:44,240 --> 01:10:47,840
Speaker 4: Let's talk about the Kansas City Chiefs coming off that

1417
01:10:48,960 --> 01:10:53,640
Speaker 4: big rebound win against the Bills on Tuesday night. Now

1418
01:10:53,760 --> 01:10:56,880
Speaker 4: they go to Denver. Nine and a half is the

1419
01:10:57,040 --> 01:10:58,840
Speaker 4: line in favor of the Chiefs.

1420
01:10:58,640 --> 01:11:00,360
Speaker 3: On the road total.

1421
01:11:00,520 --> 01:11:02,960
Speaker 4: When's the last time you've seen a total for a

1422
01:11:03,040 --> 01:11:04,800
Speaker 4: Chiefs game at forty six and a half?

1423
01:11:05,600 --> 01:11:07,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's it is very low for a

1424
01:11:07,720 --> 01:11:10,560
Speaker 3: Chiefs game. That there are things that lead me to

1425
01:11:11,520 --> 01:11:15,320
Speaker 3: think that deunder could hit here one. This Broncos defense,

1426
01:11:15,320 --> 01:11:17,400
Speaker 3: despite all the injuries, playing really well Big Fangio in

1427
01:11:17,439 --> 01:11:20,439
Speaker 3: the second year. You can see that progression. You know,

1428
01:11:20,640 --> 01:11:22,519
Speaker 3: they want to keep everything in front of them. That's

1429
01:11:22,720 --> 01:11:24,800
Speaker 3: give up no big plays, that's really the goal, and

1430
01:11:24,880 --> 01:11:27,080
Speaker 3: they don't really blitz a lot. That's the goal of

1431
01:11:27,600 --> 01:11:29,240
Speaker 3: the Fanjuo defense, which is kind of how you have

1432
01:11:29,360 --> 01:11:32,120
Speaker 3: to play the Chiefs. And there's this, you know, those

1433
01:11:32,160 --> 01:11:33,800
Speaker 3: are the teams that beat the Chiefs, and the Bills

1434
01:11:33,800 --> 01:11:35,200
Speaker 3: did it last week. They just said, look, you can

1435
01:11:35,439 --> 01:11:37,000
Speaker 3: I mean, they didn't have any defense in lineman, but

1436
01:11:37,080 --> 01:11:39,240
Speaker 3: they were just saying, you can run against us. The

1437
01:11:39,360 --> 01:11:41,680
Speaker 3: Chargers always do it, and I think that's the best

1438
01:11:41,680 --> 01:11:43,760
Speaker 3: way to play the Chiefs. I think the Chiefs have

1439
01:11:43,880 --> 01:11:45,680
Speaker 3: are dealing with the Super Bowl hangover that's going to

1440
01:11:45,720 --> 01:11:47,840
Speaker 3: persist throughout the year. And what I mean by that

1441
01:11:48,240 --> 01:11:50,920
Speaker 3: is they know how good they are, so when they

1442
01:11:51,000 --> 01:11:54,280
Speaker 3: play like these really elite teams, you can see the

1443
01:11:54,360 --> 01:11:59,519
Speaker 3: difference in the preparation, the emotion. But you know, they

1444
01:11:59,680 --> 01:12:03,240
Speaker 3: could loss to the Chargers. They could have lost. They

1445
01:12:03,320 --> 01:12:05,760
Speaker 3: did lose to the Raiders at home. They were kind

1446
01:12:05,800 --> 01:12:08,200
Speaker 3: of flat against the Bills. To be honest, So I

1447
01:12:08,280 --> 01:12:10,439
Speaker 3: think that there's just this, you know, it's not like

1448
01:12:10,479 --> 01:12:13,479
Speaker 3: they're going into these loud stadiums or everyone's like I

1449
01:12:13,520 --> 01:12:15,200
Speaker 3: hate the Chiefs. They know how good they are, and

1450
01:12:15,320 --> 01:12:17,760
Speaker 3: it's like against these lesser teams, they kind of just

1451
01:12:17,840 --> 01:12:20,479
Speaker 3: go through the motions a little bit, is what we've seen.

1452
01:12:20,760 --> 01:12:22,960
Speaker 3: So I make the line about right, this is probably

1453
01:12:23,040 --> 01:12:23,680
Speaker 3: stay away from me.

1454
01:12:24,400 --> 01:12:26,360
Speaker 4: I was on the Chiefs against the Bills last week.

1455
01:12:26,479 --> 01:12:30,360
Speaker 4: The defense it's highly impressive. I know Josh Allen had

1456
01:12:30,400 --> 01:12:34,120
Speaker 4: some misses, but this defense can stifle these mobile quarterbacks,

1457
01:12:34,160 --> 01:12:36,080
Speaker 4: which is a big plus when it comes down to,

1458
01:12:36,479 --> 01:12:38,439
Speaker 4: you know, beating some of the elite teams in this league.

1459
01:12:38,760 --> 01:12:40,400
Speaker 4: I think this will be kind of a sweepy spot

1460
01:12:40,439 --> 01:12:44,000
Speaker 4: with the Unders two ot to bet and not back in.

1461
01:12:44,040 --> 01:12:46,560
Speaker 4: The Chiefs is a road favorite coming off, you know,

1462
01:12:46,640 --> 01:12:49,800
Speaker 4: on a short week, So yeah, stay away for me,

1463
01:12:50,400 --> 01:12:52,400
Speaker 4: you know. Get we get the Chiefs minus twenty one

1464
01:12:52,439 --> 01:12:54,519
Speaker 4: against the Jets next week, so that'll be fun. So

1465
01:12:54,600 --> 01:12:56,880
Speaker 4: that does it for the best of the rest. Let's

1466
01:12:57,000 --> 01:12:59,240
Speaker 4: now get into our Survivor pool Pick of the week.

1467
01:12:59,720 --> 01:13:06,720
Speaker 2: One pick, one chance to advance Survivor.

1468
01:13:08,360 --> 01:13:11,200
Speaker 4: All right, so we both got knocked out unfortunately in

1469
01:13:11,280 --> 01:13:14,640
Speaker 4: week five broke a long streak. But we hit with

1470
01:13:14,720 --> 01:13:17,360
Speaker 4: the Dolphins. Wait did you who did you take last?

1471
01:13:17,600 --> 01:13:19,679
Speaker 4: We both hit the Dolphins, right yea, yeah, yeah, yeah,

1472
01:13:19,680 --> 01:13:22,240
Speaker 4: we both hit with the Dolphins. They shut out the Jets.

1473
01:13:22,280 --> 01:13:25,880
Speaker 4: I think Brian Flores coming off to buy next week.

1474
01:13:26,040 --> 01:13:28,639
Speaker 4: This team is an interesting team watch going forward with Tua.

1475
01:13:29,120 --> 01:13:32,720
Speaker 4: But where are you going this week? Looks like you

1476
01:13:32,800 --> 01:13:35,559
Speaker 4: already used the Bills in Week one against the Jets,

1477
01:13:35,640 --> 01:13:36,760
Speaker 4: So where are you going?

1478
01:13:37,040 --> 01:13:39,280
Speaker 3: Don't be shocked if the Jets win this game. People

1479
01:13:39,560 --> 01:13:42,719
Speaker 3: seen crazier things. I'm going with the Chargers. Fade the Jags.

1480
01:13:43,760 --> 01:13:46,240
Speaker 4: You know, the Rams aren't really a lock against the Bear.

1481
01:13:46,360 --> 01:13:48,280
Speaker 4: That could be a low scoring game to go either way.

1482
01:13:49,520 --> 01:13:52,400
Speaker 4: Chief Division spot. So yeah, going with the Chargers. And

1483
01:13:52,640 --> 01:13:53,559
Speaker 4: Herbert's been impressive.

1484
01:13:54,200 --> 01:13:54,519
Speaker 3: All right?

1485
01:13:54,760 --> 01:13:58,760
Speaker 4: That does it? Great stuff Stuck as always for you

1486
01:13:58,880 --> 01:14:02,200
Speaker 4: guys out there. You can follow Stuck on the Action

1487
01:14:02,320 --> 01:14:04,680
Speaker 4: Network app and all his picks at Stucky too. You

1488
01:14:04,720 --> 01:14:07,000
Speaker 4: can also follow him on Twitter. You can follow me

1489
01:14:07,439 --> 01:14:09,880
Speaker 4: at Chris Raybond on the app and on Twitter, and

1490
01:14:09,960 --> 01:14:12,880
Speaker 4: be sure to check out actionnetwork dot com for all

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01:14:12,960 --> 01:14:16,679
Speaker 4: of our betting content as well as fantasy content, world

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01:14:16,760 --> 01:14:21,000
Speaker 4: series content going on. Stuck in Colin Wilson, we'll have

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01:14:21,240 --> 01:14:25,880
Speaker 4: the Friday College Football Podcast, the Monday Football Recap Pod,

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01:14:26,520 --> 01:14:31,280
Speaker 4: and we'll also be back next Wednesday with the Fantasy Flex.

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01:14:31,720 --> 01:14:35,160
Speaker 4: Good Luck in Week seven and let's get this money.

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Speaker 3: The e t us. We're finished talking