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Speaker 1: Welcome into the Monday morning edition of the Daily Juice Podcast.

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Speaker 1: My name is Matt Perarolz. You can follow me on

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Speaker 1: Twitter at sports Talk Matt. We're here on bettingpros dot com.

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Speaker 1: We're here wherever you get your audio podcasts, and on

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Speaker 1: YouTube as well. Always being brought to you by bet MGM.

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Speaker 1: Bet twenty bucks to win one hundred dollars on any

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Speaker 1: event using that promo code Juice one hundred at bet

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Speaker 1: MGM on the bet MGM application Juice one hundred the

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Speaker 1: promo code. All Right, so I need to do a

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Speaker 1: little explaining here, and this might get a little boring,

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Speaker 1: but I just need to get this off my chest. Okay,

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Speaker 1: as to what just happened, we just finished up watching

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Speaker 1: the Woodley and Paul fight. Paul wins by split decision.

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Speaker 1: The fight goes the distance. I thought it might go

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Speaker 1: the distance. It did go the distance. Probably should have

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Speaker 1: made that play and left it alone, but instead I

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Speaker 1: took Widley with a bet at plus twenty eighty five

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Speaker 1: on the value now on the Discord channel on Twitter.

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Speaker 1: I told you I punted out of this bet. Okay,

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Speaker 1: it is not a play. It wasn't official. I punted

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Speaker 1: out of it. I bet the other side got my

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Speaker 1: money back, and I was flat zero on the play

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Speaker 1: no play on the Woodley Paul fight, and I might go,

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Speaker 1: wait what, Matt, Well, Look, this is why being in

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Speaker 1: the Discord channel is one important and two following me

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Speaker 1: on Twitter also is important if you are gonna trail

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Speaker 1: my bets. I thought the distance might happen, but I

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Speaker 1: also said, look, I thought Widley could win it on

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Speaker 1: the cards, but decision one judge agreed, the other two

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Speaker 1: is did not. I don't really think that on the cards. Personally,

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Speaker 1: I think that was probably a five to three win

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Speaker 1: for Jake Paul. But regardless, it was a bad fight. Okay,

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Speaker 1: Jake Paul is not a pro boxer. Can we all

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Speaker 1: just say this out loud? He is not a professional boxer.

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Speaker 1: If he fights a professional boxer, he's going to lose,

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Speaker 1: and lose quickly. If he fights a legitimate boxer in

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Speaker 1: his weight class, he's going to lose quickly. The stamina

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Speaker 1: he doesn't have it. The output he doesn't have it.

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Speaker 1: The footwork he doesn't have it. Okay, he has eyeballs.

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Speaker 1: What he has, he has people's attention. That's what he has.

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Speaker 1: So he gets to fight on showtime on pay per

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Speaker 1: view and hand picks opponents aging MMA fighters who do

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Speaker 1: not throw punches, who are not productive, who do not

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Speaker 1: have high output, their motors are nothing. Okay, Tyron Woodley

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Speaker 1: being involved in a boring fight is par for the course.

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Speaker 1: That's how the majority of his fights went in the

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Speaker 1: MMA world. Okay, low output, not productive. He's not someone

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Speaker 1: who wants to get hit all that much anymore. Okay,

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Speaker 1: he had Jake Paul hurt, didn't jump on him. Different

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Speaker 1: fighter may have jumped on him, may have pushed the pace,

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Speaker 1: may have really tried to clean him out and get

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Speaker 1: him out of there. Didn't happen. Some people are saying

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Speaker 1: that it was fixed. I'm not saying that. I'm saying

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Speaker 1: that Woodley was a hand picked opponent. And well, the

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Speaker 1: reason why I punted is the following. I have connections

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Speaker 1: in people like interview on my radio show. I have

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Speaker 1: bookmakers who I listened to and talked to, and at

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Speaker 1: one particular book I asked on Friday on fight night,

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Speaker 1: who are you going to need? And they told me

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Speaker 1: that on fight night they were going to need Tyron

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Speaker 1: Woodley because the pro money and the money from the

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Speaker 1: public had come in on Jake Paul and had driven

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Speaker 1: their price up to minus two fifteen. So I said, okay,

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Speaker 1: let's do a value play. I respect this book a lot.

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Speaker 1: They sponsored my radio show, and I believe them that

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Speaker 1: they're going to tell me things that are on the

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Speaker 1: up and up. They didn't lie to me. What they

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Speaker 1: did was they didn't tell me the entire truth as

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Speaker 1: to what they were pricing the fight. At tonight or

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Speaker 1: last night, I got a tweet from a sportsbook person

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Speaker 1: that stated, we put the price where we put it

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Speaker 1: with anticipation of needing Jake Paul. They wanted money on Woodley.

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Speaker 1: They wanted as much money on Woodley as possible. They

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Speaker 1: were setting a trap. They laid a trap for the public,

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Speaker 1: and they capitalized. A sportsbook's job is to take our money.

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Speaker 1: That's the bottom line. That's their job. Okay. So they're

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Speaker 1: not being all nice and friendly and all nice and warm,

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Speaker 1: but we when I do ask a straight question, I'm

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Speaker 1: asking for a reason because I want to know and

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Speaker 1: I want to be on the side of the book. So,

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Speaker 1: come Saturday night or sun night, brother, what do you

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Speaker 1: anticipate who do you think you're going to need? And

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Speaker 1: The answer was, we will need we anticipate needing Tyron

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Speaker 1: Woodley by the time the fight goes off, leaving out

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Speaker 1: the part that they were going to price it to

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Speaker 1: the point where people would go and bet them and

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Speaker 1: bet Woodley because they laid a trap because they wanted

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Speaker 1: to need Jake Paul. So come fight night, the book

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Speaker 1: needed Jake Paul. So I got out of it. No

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Speaker 1: play on official bet or official bet, dead off the board,

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Speaker 1: no count, nothing. We just pulled it down because the

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Speaker 1: information I'd given you guys saying I want to be

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Speaker 1: I was doing a value play being on the side

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Speaker 1: of the sportsbooks because of what I had been told.

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Speaker 1: So I learned a lesson. It's on me. It's my bad.

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Speaker 1: If you aren't in the Discord channel bettingpros dot COM's

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Speaker 1: last chat to get in. If you're watching this, I'm

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Speaker 1: assuming you've watched this before and you've heard me say that.

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Speaker 1: If you're following me on Twitter, you also saw the

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Speaker 1: tweet where I said, punt out of the bet, cash

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Speaker 1: out bet the other side, whatever you gotta do, get

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Speaker 1: out of it. Because I was no longer confident that

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Speaker 1: the value play was Tyron Woodley. In fact, there probably

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Speaker 1: was value shopping around and fighting Jake Paul somewhere in

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Speaker 1: the neighborhood of like minus one eighty one seventy five.

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Speaker 1: The value was on Paul, not Woodley. So I had

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Speaker 1: to scramble, and so we got out of the bet.

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Speaker 1: If you bet the distance, you cash, that's great. If

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Speaker 1: you bet Jake Paul by decision, you got a plus

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Speaker 1: six hundred, that's great. Fight was bad. End of the day.

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Speaker 1: The fight was bad, and the shine now is off

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Speaker 1: of Jake Paul, Thank goodness. At the end of the day,

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Speaker 1: the conversation about whether or not Jake Paul is a

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Speaker 1: professional fighter, no matter how much Showtime's broadcasters tried to

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Speaker 1: spin it, give al Bernstein a lot of credit. Okay,

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Speaker 1: al Bernstein was not going to shovel blowny down people's throats.

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Speaker 1: He was telling the truth, Okay, just saying, well, you know,

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Speaker 1: listen to what albert Stein wasn't saying when he was

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Speaker 1: being asked questions about the skill level of Jake Paul. Okay,

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Speaker 1: he was being as cordial as he could, knowing his

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Speaker 1: employer is going to be in bed with Jake Paul

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Speaker 1: for a long time. Jake Paul has eyeballs. Remember that

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Speaker 1: skill he's not. He's taking it seriously. Okay, I'll give

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Speaker 1: him the credit's going in there. He's doing the work.

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Speaker 1: But there's hundreds of guys his age are doing the work. Okay.

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Speaker 1: He's just built himself up an audience so he can

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Speaker 1: sell tickets and he can sell pay per views. And

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Speaker 1: for that reason, he is a draw and you can't

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Speaker 1: debate it. He's a draw. He is a heel. He

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Speaker 1: loves playing the heel, and he has been able to

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Speaker 1: create this firestorm around himself without much skill. Okay. And

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Speaker 1: now after he goes eight rounds and shows his productivity,

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Speaker 1: his output, his skill level, his footwork, his handspeed, everything, conditioning,

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Speaker 1: all of it, Okay, it's all done. Okay, gigs up,

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Speaker 1: gigs up. Okay. So the idea of Jake Paul being

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Speaker 1: a professional fighter is over. Jake Paul being a side

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Speaker 1: shoe was still very much there. But who's he fighting next? Now?

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Speaker 1: You know who's he fighting next? If he gets in

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Speaker 1: the ring with the real boxer, he's done. Any one

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Speaker 1: of those pro fighters, by the way, that were on

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Speaker 1: that card would have destroyed Jake Paul, any one of them,

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Speaker 1: name them, even the guys that lost, even the Italian

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Speaker 1: dude that got knocked out in the first round. That

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Speaker 1: dude beats Jake Paul. Okay, all of them beat Jake Paul,

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Speaker 1: so you know, it is what it is. But that

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Speaker 1: was on me. So the official record last night is

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Speaker 1: one and two, and it should have been two and one.

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Speaker 1: And we had a horrendous, horrific beat that. If Saturday

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Speaker 1: didn't go so well, I would have been so angry.

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Speaker 1: But Saturday went pretty well, So it turns into a

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Speaker 1: one and two day. It's a losing day, but yikes,

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Speaker 1: Raiders goes flying over with the forty nine ers. That

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Speaker 1: was great. But the Hail Mary at the end. We've

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Speaker 1: had like four Hail Mary's here in this preseason. It's

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Speaker 1: been kind of crazy. But that one, as far as

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Speaker 1: I know, was the first one that flipped the dog

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Speaker 1: to win down by eight points. I don't know what

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Speaker 1: the Patriots were doing. I shut it off. Patriots had

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Speaker 1: the two minute warning, they had a first down, and

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Speaker 1: then I shut it off because they took a knee

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Speaker 1: and I went, okay, that's good, done deal. I don't

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Speaker 1: know what happened. I don't know why they attempted that

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Speaker 1: field goal. I just don't get it, Like, why in

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Speaker 1: the world would you attempt that field goal? And I

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Speaker 1: know the Patriots are having a field goal competition, but

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Speaker 1: I just that a fifty four yard field goal on

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Speaker 1: that spot almost felt like rubbing it in. I don't know,

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Speaker 1: like you're the game's over, like just run around and

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Speaker 1: kill the clock and be done with it, or just

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Speaker 1: run the football and give it back to the Giants,

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Speaker 1: like attempting the field goal that Belichick's known for doing

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Speaker 1: a bunch of like bleep you stuff. He scored bleep

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Speaker 1: you touchdowns in the past, and I think it was

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Speaker 1: like a bleep you field goal, like Joe Judge, you're

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Speaker 1: still my understudy, I'm gonna rub it in and oh yeah,

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Speaker 1: by the way, I'm going to do it under the

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Speaker 1: guise of a kicking competition. It was weird to me.

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Speaker 1: It was very very strange that that that happened. So

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Speaker 1: they turn the ball over, Hail Mayry, Giants get it.

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Speaker 1: It's always the Giants for me, it's always the Giants.

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Speaker 1: Every decade. Once a decade they get me. Eli Manning

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Speaker 1: goes to Eli Manning somewhere. It's always the Giants with

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Speaker 1: the Patriots. So unfortunately the moneyline parlay Yankees and Dodgers

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Speaker 1: both lose, So I was a kiss of death for

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Speaker 1: both those teams ahead of moneyline parlay A plus one

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Speaker 1: fifty two on both those teams, So that missed. The

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Speaker 1: moneayline parlay experiment ends at ten and six. No more

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Speaker 1: of that. We're done with moneyline parlays, and so we're

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Speaker 1: gonna go into today here with a little bit of

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Speaker 1: a plan. All right, So here's what I'm gonna do today.

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Speaker 1: I on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and maybe even on Thursday,

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Speaker 1: but I'm gonna give you Thursday is a full day

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Speaker 1: of college football betting, and I mean a full day

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Speaker 1: of college football betting. Each night, I'm gonna give you

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Speaker 1: a week one college football bet, Okay, and I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: do it today, I'm gonna do it tomorrow. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: do it Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday. We're gonna do

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Speaker 1: a week one on college football bet every single day

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Speaker 1: this week. I'm gonna give you a play that I like. Okay,

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Speaker 1: So we start the college football year four and one

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Speaker 1: should have been five and oh but I should have

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Speaker 1: just bet utip and that's gonna chat me. But I

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Speaker 1: didn't do that. I bet the over and it didn't hint,

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Speaker 1: and so that makes me angry. So four and one

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Speaker 1: on the podcast. So I'm gonna give you a play

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Speaker 1: today on a game Thursday. I'll give you a play

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Speaker 1: tomorrow on a game on Thursday, and then Wednesday as well,

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Speaker 1: and then I'll probably, depending upon how things go, get

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Speaker 1: into Friday and Saturday, and we'll have a bunch of

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Speaker 1: stuff going here. In college football, there are games where

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Speaker 1: I think the line's going to move, and so that's

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Speaker 1: why I'm going to jump in on some of these plays,

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Speaker 1: just so we get the best of the lines as

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Speaker 1: a line does to move a ton. Lines have already

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Speaker 1: moved a little bit, but I don't want to move

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Speaker 1: a ton, So we'll do that coming up. And then

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Speaker 1: I've got one baseball game to give you, guys for

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Speaker 1: a half a unit, So I only have a half

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Speaker 1: unit going today. I'm not going to be overly committed.

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Speaker 1: I'm just gonna kind of, you know, pick our spots

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Speaker 1: here before we get into the big Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday,

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Speaker 1: Labor Day weekend when there's just football all over the

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Speaker 1: place I can't wait, so I don't want to really

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Speaker 1: get you know, too committed on baseball and on plays

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Speaker 1: that I don't really I mean, I don't like betting baseball.

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Speaker 1: You guys know this, And obviously a bunch of you

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Speaker 1: guys DM me and wrote messages on the Discord channel saying,

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Speaker 1: so that's why you were saying get to football. Yes,

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Speaker 1: this is why I said, let's get to football, because

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Speaker 1: I'm much better at college and pro football betting than

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Speaker 1: I am betting every day on baseball. The grind is

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Speaker 1: just very tough and very difficult in the variants is

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Speaker 1: all over the place, and it's just hard. Okay, so

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Speaker 1: let's start with a football play happening on Thursday. Okay,

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Speaker 1: this game happening Thursday night. It is happening at Central Florida.

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Speaker 1: It is UCF hosting Boise State. Gus Mauson is now

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Speaker 1: the coach of the Golden Knights. This is a guy

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Speaker 1: who I think is going to do very very well

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Speaker 1: at this level. Leaving the Power Five heading to UCF

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Speaker 1: where they went six and four last year. They're returning

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Speaker 1: their quarterback Dylan Gabriel, who is a stud, absolute stud,

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Speaker 1: awesome deep ball thrower. This guy can throw a pretty

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Speaker 1: pass as pretty of a deep ball thrower in college

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Speaker 1: football as there is. They returned seventeen starters for Central

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Speaker 1: Florida and they get three really big Auburn transfers who

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Speaker 1: have come with Gus Mauzan to Central Florida. Phil Steele

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Speaker 1: is projecting that Central Florida is going to score forty

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Speaker 1: three point three points per game this year, and I

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Speaker 1: believe it. You got guys like Marc Anthony Richards who

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Speaker 1: is an Auburn running back transfer. Bentavia's Thompson also back

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Speaker 1: a solid offensive line, bringing back the majority of the

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Speaker 1: offensive line, and Gus Malsan has been very happy with

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Speaker 1: the depth he's got for the offensive line. UCF is

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Speaker 1: twenty three and two at home straight up over the

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Speaker 1: last four years, and Gus Malson is fifty to twelve

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Speaker 1: all time in season openers as a head coach in

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Speaker 1: college football. Now, Boise State lost their head coach Brian

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Speaker 1: Harson to Auburn of all places Okay six and nine

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Speaker 1: wins leaves. Boise was five and two last year. New

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Speaker 1: head coach Andy Vails was the former defensive coordinator at Oregon.

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Speaker 1: He coached and played at Boise State knows it well.

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Speaker 1: Boise returned seventeen starters, so it's not like they're going

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Speaker 1: to be completely shocked about going out there and play

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Speaker 1: on the road. And Boise very much might win the

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Speaker 1: Mountain West Conference. But I'm not sure how much that's

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Speaker 1: saying right now. This Boise State offense not that explosive,

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Speaker 1: not the same level of Boise talent that you've seen

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Speaker 1: in years past. That's why Brian Harson left. Okay, Harson

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Speaker 1: took a look at his old roster and when I

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Speaker 1: got a sophomore quarterback and some unproven wide receivers and

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Speaker 1: an okay running back, yeah, Auburn, I'm leaving. And that's

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Speaker 1: why he took the Auburn job kind of unexpectedly. But

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Speaker 1: going from the Pacific Northwest down to the Deep South.

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Speaker 1: We'll see how he does at Auburn. But boy, oh boy,

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Speaker 1: that was a shocking hire when he went down there.

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Speaker 1: Boise is young at cornerback. It's their number one question

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Speaker 1: mark on that defense going into the year, and that

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Speaker 1: is really bad news against Central Florida. You cannot be

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Speaker 1: weak in the second and derry up against this team

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Speaker 1: with the talent level that they've got boys are gonna

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Speaker 1: look to run the football and keep it away. But

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Speaker 1: I like the defense well enough for Central Florida to

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Speaker 1: really get after it. Boise has not played a ranked

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Speaker 1: team on the road since twenty eighteen, when they lost

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Speaker 1: to Oki State forty four to twenty one. Rocking Atmosphere.

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Speaker 1: I think Central Florida is gonna be a really tough

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Speaker 1: team to face this year, and they could be one

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Speaker 1: of those sneaky teams that when you start looking at

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Speaker 1: them and you're like, how did they like? Wow, what

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Speaker 1: did they do? I like Central Florida. They're not ranked

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Speaker 1: right now, but I think by the end of the

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Speaker 1: year they're gonna be ranked, and I think they're gonna

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Speaker 1: be a tough team to face in a tough out

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Speaker 1: Central Florida rock and Atmosphere laying four and a half points,

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Speaker 1: lay four and a half. Some books are already at

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Speaker 1: five and a half. Okay, find four and a half,

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Speaker 1: look around, search around, find four and a half. I

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Speaker 1: think you can bet this up to six. Don't go

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Speaker 1: over six. You can't find you know, four and a

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Speaker 1: half or five. Five and a half is okay, but

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Speaker 1: six is the absolute limit. I don't really love playing six.

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Speaker 1: That's the absolute limit here that I would go with

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Speaker 1: this game. It's an ESPN game. The bounce outse is

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Speaker 1: going to be rocking. First play Week one college football,

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Speaker 1: Central Florida minus four and a half against Boise State

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Speaker 1: on the road, as I think they're going to be

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Speaker 1: in for a tough, tough road trip here to Central

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Speaker 1: Florida in the heat of Florida in early September. Some

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Speaker 1: guys look at the game, look at having a Yukon

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Speaker 1: when Yukon went out west to take on Fresno State.

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Speaker 1: A different situation, different team, I know, but you know

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Speaker 1: seventeen stars coming back is decent for Boise State. But

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Speaker 1: new head coach, young quarterback, on the road, tough environment,

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Speaker 1: Gus S Miles on, I think it's gonna be a

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Speaker 1: really good job. First bet minus four and a half,

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Speaker 1: Central Florida up against Boise Okay, only one bet going here.

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Speaker 1: I might add in the Discord channel. I may have

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Speaker 1: another game to bet on. As the day unfolds, I

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Speaker 1: may uncover some stuff and I may get involved. But

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Speaker 1: there's only one game that I really like, only one

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Speaker 1: number that I really like, and the Boston Red Sox

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Speaker 1: are going on the road at the Tampa Bay Rays.

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Speaker 1: The Tampa Bay Rays right now are seventy two fifty

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Speaker 1: three and five to the over. That's fifty seven point

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Speaker 1: six percent to the over. Now the Red Sox have

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Speaker 1: been okay, the over is only going Actually, they're sixty

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Speaker 1: sixty nine and three fifty three percent to the under.

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Speaker 1: But going on the road to Tampa, the Rays score

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Speaker 1: a lot of runs at home. And I'm not entirely

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Speaker 1: in love with where the Red Sox are after losing

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Speaker 1: to a Cleveland team yesterday. You've got Nick Pavetta up

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Speaker 1: against Lewis Patino here three and three five point four,

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Speaker 1: four point five to three for Patino, and you've got

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Speaker 1: nine and six four point five seven for Nick Pavetta.

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Speaker 1: Look this, both these pitchers are gonna get hit. Okay.

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Speaker 1: This offense for the Rays can really really score when

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Speaker 1: you give them opportunities when you aren't playing your best

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Speaker 1: base and the Red Sox are so up and down

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Speaker 1: right now, but the Red Sox lineup can score. The

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Speaker 1: totals eight and a half. I was actually kind of

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Speaker 1: surprise by that total being eight and a half here

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Speaker 1: for these two teams, and it might be because of

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Speaker 1: the Red Sox. They don't feel like the Red Sox

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Speaker 1: are gonna score all that much, but I think both

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Speaker 1: teams have the capability of scoring a bunch of runs.

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Speaker 1: The Red Sox was scoring a bunch of runs up

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Speaker 1: against Cleveland. I think the score a bunch of runs

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Speaker 1: coming up here against Tampa. It's a seven to ten game.

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Speaker 1: It's on ESPN, so you got some nationally televised games

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Speaker 1: to get into. Last time these two teams played eight

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Speaker 1: to one. Red Sox scored twenty twenty runs on the Rays.

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Speaker 1: It was twenty to eight the game of excuse me.

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Speaker 1: The game before that, it was eight to four the

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Speaker 1: game before that, so nine runs in the previous game,

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Speaker 1: twenty eight runs before that, twelve runs before that, three

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Speaker 1: to two, nine five seven three eight two nine five

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Speaker 1: nine two six five eleven two. Okay, these teams aren't

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Speaker 1: playing low scoring games. Okay, they're not playing low scoring games.

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Speaker 1: Into a lot of runs. Eight and a half. We're

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Speaker 1: going over eight and a half at minus one ten

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Speaker 1: for Red Sox and the Rays. My guess is that

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Speaker 1: number is gonna climb here. Rays most likely win this game.

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Speaker 1: But you can't sleep on the Red Sox offense. With

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Speaker 1: Rafael Devers and j D. Martinez is heating up in

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Speaker 1: a big, big way. Red Sox can score four, Tampa

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Speaker 1: scores five. We go over it. It's a five to

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Speaker 1: four game and we're good. Okay, over eight and a

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Speaker 1: half for half a unit, Red Sox and the Rays

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Speaker 1: here today ESPN game seven to ten, first pitch, Eastern time. Okay,

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Speaker 1: that is a half a unit. I may come in

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Speaker 1: with another baseball bet. I may have a couple of

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Speaker 1: baseball props. I've been eyeballing strikeout props. I've been trying

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Speaker 1: to do some research and trying to get my arms

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Speaker 1: and hands and legs everything around strikeout props. So I

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Speaker 1: may come back with a couple of strikeout props for

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Speaker 1: you guys today and kind of focus in on that

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Speaker 1: a little bit as the year goes on. I think

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Speaker 1: there's enough data that we really can kind of look

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Speaker 1: at starting pitchers and look at strikeout props. And there's

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Speaker 1: been some very interesting trends strikeout prop wise, in terms

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Speaker 1: of where pitchers have been and how you pitchers who

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Speaker 1: go up against certain lineups or in certain ballparks what

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Speaker 1: have happened. So there's some trends we may jump in here.

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Speaker 1: We may have a couple of baseball props for you

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Speaker 1: guys coming up today in the Discord channel, Bettingpros dot

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Speaker 1: com slast chat, or underneath me here on YouTube to

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Speaker 1: get in okay. First play on Week one is Central

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Speaker 1: Florida minus four and a half against Boise. First play

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Speaker 1: today half a unit on the Red Sox and the

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Speaker 1: Rays over eight and a half for a half a

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Speaker 1: unit at minus one ten minus. Matt PARTI can follow

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Speaker 1: me on Twitter at sports Talc Matt eats every morning.

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Speaker 1: It's the Daily Juice podcast right here on Betting Pros

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Speaker 1: dot Com, always being brought to you by bet I'm

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Speaker 1: Jim