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Speaker 1: Welcome in friends to betting pros college football early looks

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Speaker 1: a little look ahead. I'm Chris Welsh, joining me as

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Speaker 1: always as Thor and Eystrom. We have got big games,

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Speaker 1: we have got lots of fun stuff for you, and

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Speaker 1: we have got some action. Oh yeah, it's about to

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Speaker 1: all kick off, Thor. We're coming off of week nine,

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Speaker 1: which saw I believe one of the biggest top ten

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Speaker 1: upsets in college football and god knows how long, and

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Speaker 1: some betting lines that really didn't play out for the

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Speaker 1: sharp betting of maybe you know, oh, I don't know,

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Speaker 1: a look ahead for Tennessee with Georgia that didn't happen.

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Speaker 1: So some upset there, anything you got for us coming

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Speaker 1: off of week nine that's standing out as we are

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Speaker 1: going to be doing our look ahead to week ten.

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Speaker 2: I thought it was a really fun weekend, like like

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Speaker 2: you're mentioning and now you move the calendar into November

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Speaker 2: and you get maction and we have some really enormous

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Speaker 2: games as far as playoff implications, no bigger this weekend

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Speaker 2: than Tennessee and Georgia. So it's a really fun time

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Speaker 2: to be a college football fan.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, we've got a ton that we're going to be

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Speaker 1: breaking through, So hold tight and thora is gonna get

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Speaker 1: you guys all set up for any of you guys

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Speaker 1: that want to jump on any early lines or you know,

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Speaker 1: get into Maction, which is total degenerate time, because that

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Speaker 1: means we get to bet on college football on a

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Speaker 1: Tuesday night. On a Wednesday night, we get to sit

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Speaker 1: around be absolutely ridiculous. There's a lot of good stuff

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Speaker 1: that's going on right now, full on, but we get

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Speaker 1: full Maction football and thor we got to mention it.

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Speaker 1: So I'm gonna run through a couple of the lines

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Speaker 1: for Tuesday and Wednesday and then anything that stands out

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Speaker 1: for you, for the true degions that are ready to

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Speaker 1: get down with it, let us know. It's going to

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Speaker 1: kick off with ball State ken State, which ken State

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Speaker 1: is currently six and a half point favorite. This is

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Speaker 1: going to be I mean just it's gorgeous Tuesday at

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Speaker 1: seven pm Eastern. God, you gotta love Maction. You've got

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Speaker 1: Ohio hosting Buffalo Buffalo is a three point favorite on

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Speaker 1: the road, and then Wednesday night, when you really want

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Speaker 1: to get into it, you've got Northern Illinois that's hosting

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Speaker 1: Central Michigan minus four and bowling Green is hosting Western

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Speaker 1: Michigan minus three and a half. And what I love

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Speaker 1: about the Wednesday games is you don't have a you

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Speaker 1: have one team with four wins on the year, and

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Speaker 1: really the Buffalo, Ohio game is the only one with

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Speaker 1: like two teams that are over five hundred for action.

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Speaker 1: So I gave you four games, four lines. What stands

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Speaker 1: out for anyone that's ready to get down with some action.

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Speaker 2: Oh, I'm getting so juiced from Maction. My early lean

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Speaker 2: on the Maction games would be on Ball State. I

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Speaker 2: think that the Kent State line is to inflated. So

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Speaker 2: it's Kent State minus six and a half live right now.

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Speaker 2: My line in that game is Kent State minus four

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Speaker 2: point nine. We've already seen these last like three weeks,

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Speaker 2: Kent State getting inflated in the market. It seems like

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Speaker 2: some heavy hitters believe it Kent State, but they've been

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Speaker 2: you can fade them effectively, or you have been able to,

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Speaker 2: at least to this point. I've done it a couple

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Speaker 2: of different times in one money and this game it

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Speaker 2: feels like again there's like a point and a half

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Speaker 2: or two point tax on the Kent State side. Ken

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Speaker 2: State's run defense is an abomination. It might be the

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Speaker 2: worst in the nation. If it's not, it's one of

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Speaker 2: the five worst for sure. In this game, they have

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Speaker 2: to contend with this kid, Carson Steele from ball State,

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Speaker 2: a super duper tough kid who was very hard to tackle.

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Speaker 2: Kat State's one of the worst Tackle League teams of

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Speaker 2: the dation. So as far as getting six and a

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Speaker 2: half points in that game first game of action, I

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Speaker 2: would definitely lean towards ball State. The Buffalo Ohio game,

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Speaker 2: I'm not sure that I'm gonna bet on that one.

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Speaker 3: That's a fascinating one.

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Speaker 2: Buffalo has looked like maybe the best team in the

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Speaker 2: MAC the past couple of weeks, but Ohio is definitely

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Speaker 2: better than we thought they were going to be coming

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Speaker 2: into the year because they have, at least for the MAC,

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Speaker 2: a dominant offense. They can move the ball on anyone.

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Speaker 2: It's just their defense is so bad. There's gonna be

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Speaker 2: a whole lot of points scored in that game. The

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Speaker 2: Central Michigan Northern Illinois game, you would need to have

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Speaker 2: a good idea about the status updates on one guy

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Speaker 2: from each had Low Nichols on the Central Michigan side,

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Speaker 2: who's been out for a couple of weeks. Now you

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Speaker 2: need to know that he's gonna play if you're gonna

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Speaker 2: invest in Central Michigan, because that team stinks with him

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Speaker 2: on the sideline. And then Northern Illinois with Rocky Lombardi,

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Speaker 2: who's been in in.

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Speaker 3: The lineup, out of the lineup, in the lineup, out

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Speaker 3: of the lineup.

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Speaker 2: Northern Illinois plays way up when Rocky Lombardi is starting

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Speaker 2: and way down when he's not. So you need to

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Speaker 2: know the status updates on those two guys. Hopefully we

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Speaker 2: get them in advance. And then the other one Bowling

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Speaker 2: Green against Western Michigan Western. So my line in that

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Speaker 2: game it's bowling Green minus one point one. The live

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Speaker 2: line is bowling Green minus three point five. But I'm

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Speaker 2: absolutely not going to advocate for a play on Western Michigan.

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Speaker 2: I have not bet on them once they are. One

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Speaker 2: of my biggest bets in the summer was the under

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Speaker 2: on Western Michigan, which is going to get there very easily.

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Speaker 2: But it's a team that I have hated all fall

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Speaker 2: and into the summer, and I'm they've given no indications

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Speaker 2: to change that opinion, So I understand why why the

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Speaker 2: books have dropped sort of like a two point tax

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Speaker 2: on bowling. But like I said, I'm not going to

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Speaker 2: try to take a stake on the underdog and that game.

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Speaker 2: I'll even consider going against my system and playing balling

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Speaker 2: green potentially.

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Speaker 1: I love that you said that, because I was literally

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Speaker 1: gonna say, Hey, we're kind of getting a hook on

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Speaker 1: there for a field goal? Would you do it? You

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Speaker 1: straight up answered it. Obviously, you know this has to

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Speaker 1: be dug into two more. But this won't be something

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Speaker 1: that's going to be tackled later in the week because

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Speaker 1: this happens on Tuesday. But it kind of sounds both

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Speaker 1: those overs in play in the Tuesday games, the kin

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Speaker 1: State ball State with the bad tackling, and you were saying,

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Speaker 1: OHI do you think both the over on the Kin

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Speaker 1: State ball State is sixty two and fifty eight and

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Speaker 1: a half on that Ohio game? Do you think either

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Speaker 1: of the overs are in play?

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Speaker 3: The overs in Matt games are always in play.

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Speaker 2: It's a great American tradition betting the overs, and in

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Speaker 2: particular in those games. Yes, the game script is going

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Speaker 2: to lean heavily in that direction for sure.

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Speaker 1: Oh man, you get you guys ready and get set

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Speaker 1: and get your books, Call your bookie and get on

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Speaker 1: your app because maction is here and it's going to

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Speaker 1: be fun to bet through the rest of the next

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Speaker 1: last couple of weeks here. We've also we've obviously got

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Speaker 1: the big games coming up up here, but we do

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Speaker 1: have one. We have one ranked game coming up prior

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Speaker 1: to Saturday when all the big action is going on.

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Speaker 1: So let's jump into that one. This is going to

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Speaker 1: be on Friday night. It's a PAC twelve game, Oregan

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Speaker 1: State number twenty four. Oregan State now six and two.

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Speaker 1: I believe they are coming off of a bye going

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Speaker 1: up against Washington who's six and two, so it's going

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Speaker 1: to be a big matchup here. The early line is

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Speaker 1: set at four and a half and the over is

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Speaker 1: a sixty. What do you think on this one prior

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Speaker 1: to Saturday? If for getting in on some Friday action,

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Speaker 1: this is.

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Speaker 2: A good line. That's exactly where this line should be.

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Speaker 2: My adjusted line on that game is Washington minus four.

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Speaker 2: You know, I mean that you know the game being

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Speaker 2: in Seattle with a arguably superior team with Washington that

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Speaker 2: you know, maybe that explains the half a point, But

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Speaker 2: like to me, this line is spot on unless it

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Speaker 2: changes one way or the other, I will probably not

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Speaker 2: be bet in that game just because I think that's

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Speaker 2: a sharp line.

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Speaker 1: Big avoid all right, going into Saturday, But we want

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Speaker 1: to tell you guys, friendos, if you want to track

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Speaker 1: all your wagers in one place, and I know you do,

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Speaker 1: because it's literally the big pain for me is going

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Speaker 1: through and trying to manually type in bets to some

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Speaker 1: of those places and really just going from book to book.

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Speaker 1: Betting Pros has got you covered with their picktracker at

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Speaker 1: bettingpros dot com slash Pick dash Tracking. It syncs up

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Speaker 1: Gives you a live look at what the public is doing,

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Speaker 1: so you can use real time tracking to determine which

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Speaker 1: plays to make and which to fade. Get on the

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Speaker 1: leaderboard and quickly become a sharp by using the free

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Speaker 1: Pick dash Tracking. Do it make your life easier? Spend

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Speaker 1: more time betting?

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Speaker 3: We have some good tools, man, we have some really

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Speaker 3: good tools. Like some of that stuff. It's really good.

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Speaker 3: I do have to say, yeah, doubted it.

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Speaker 1: While doing the Baseball podcast this whole year people can

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Speaker 1: find me over. I did it all season with Joe Pezipie.

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Speaker 1: One of my favorite tools on Betting Pros was the

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Speaker 1: prop cheat sheet when it would generate all the props

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Speaker 1: even if you didn't and this is just a plug

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Speaker 1: for them, even if you didn't necessarily loved what the

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Speaker 1: algorithm spit out. What I loved about it is it

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Speaker 1: would put players on my radar immediately that I could

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Speaker 1: go and I could research further instead of doing just

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Speaker 1: a blanket look across the board. And that is just

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Speaker 1: one of the many tools they do obviously for football

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Speaker 1: and baseball. But go and check them out betting Pros

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Speaker 1: and the pick tracking is awesome. Saturday, let's go big, big,

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Speaker 1: biggest game.

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Speaker 3: Of the year.

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Speaker 1: Eight no versus eight, No Number one versus Number two.

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Speaker 1: There was no look ahead situation for Tennessee last week

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Speaker 1: as Tennessee was up against Kentucky. Everyone was kind of

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Speaker 1: playing that card here. Tennessee won forty four to six.

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Speaker 1: That over didn't hit, by the way, which kill me here.

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Speaker 1: That one was brutal. Georgia beat up on Florida forty

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Speaker 1: two to twenty. So this is two powerhouses for where

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Speaker 1: are we going with number one versus number two.

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Speaker 3: I believe the early.

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Speaker 1: Line is set at nine on Georgia right now at home.

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Speaker 2: So what do you got My line on that game

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Speaker 2: is is Georgia minus eight. In my system, I had

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Speaker 2: another good week last week. I've had like four straight

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Speaker 2: good ones. My biggest mistake by far was back in Kentucky,

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Speaker 2: which was one of those those ones where like in

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Speaker 2: the late first quarter, you're already doing a ticket bonfire

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Speaker 2: knowing that that there's no chance that you're gonna cover

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Speaker 2: that game. Tennessee, Man, they have overcome everything and they

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Speaker 2: keep exceeding expectations. It doesn't matter the opponent because they've

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Speaker 2: beaten a variety of different teams of playing a variety

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Speaker 2: of different ways, doesn't seem to matter what the situational

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Speaker 2: spot is either. They overcome all of it, and now

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Speaker 2: they've gotten back to full strength with Cedric Tillman getting back.

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Speaker 2: That's particularly big in this matchup when you're going up

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Speaker 2: against this nasty defense of Georgia's.

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Speaker 3: I think they match up okay with Georgia.

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Speaker 2: Tennessee like the the strength of the Tennessee defense, by far,

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Speaker 2: it's their defensive front. They're really good against the run,

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Speaker 2: and in the last game the weakness of the balls

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Speaker 2: defense is their secondary. But in the last game against Leves,

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Speaker 2: they were sending Tennessee was sending pressure that was getting

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Speaker 2: there and spooking Leves. Can they get pressure on sets

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Speaker 2: and Bennett similarly where sets and Bennet's not just back

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Speaker 2: there and he can fish for plays downfield when that happens.

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Speaker 2: Because if if Tennessee is able to slow down Georgia's

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Speaker 2: running game stetson, Bennett is going to have to make

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Speaker 2: throws in this game for Georgia to win. I would

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Speaker 2: definitely not be laying the points with Georgia here. I

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Speaker 2: would lean Tennessee for sure. Early in the week, and uh,

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Speaker 2: it was funny. I was texting your buddy Bogman on

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Speaker 2: on Saturday about about the Tennessee Kentucky game because we

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Speaker 2: were on opposite sides of that one, and I was

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Speaker 2: I was very wrong. And I told Bogman that it

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Speaker 2: was a cheap lesson learned, you know, trying to fade

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Speaker 2: Tennessee for the last time, because I told him I'm

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Speaker 2: not fading him the rest of the year. Like that's

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Speaker 2: I learned my lesson trying to step on the train tracks.

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Speaker 2: I'd been on Tennessee earlier in the season, you know,

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Speaker 2: like against Alabama stuff like that. But I tried to

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Speaker 2: stick my hand in the cookie jar and it got

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Speaker 2: chopped off. So I'm not gonna be I'm not gonna

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Speaker 2: be playing Tennessee again. Lesson learned on that, and in

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Speaker 2: this game, I would lean the Tennessee direction. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: And one of the worst things about this too, getting

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Speaker 1: back to that over, because that was I know that

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Speaker 1: was a play YouTube both completely agreed on, even though

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Speaker 1: you were on opposite sides. Was all that happened in

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Speaker 1: this one was Kentucky just had nothing. Kentucky couldn't keep

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Speaker 1: up there into the bargain. Tennessee scored forty whatever points.

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Speaker 1: They just couldn't keep up with that over. So it's

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Speaker 1: kind of a big line. Do you think we're gonna

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Speaker 1: come down on the line in the week. Do you

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Speaker 1: think we're gonna get like Georgia closer to a touchdown?

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Speaker 1: Do you think, like what type of movement do you

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Speaker 1: think is gonna happen over the next couple days for

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Speaker 1: this game? Because I think there's gonna be so much

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Speaker 1: massive interest because of number one and number two rank,

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Speaker 1: but finding where you want to bet it's gonna get tricky,

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Speaker 1: especially if that number comes down at all.

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Speaker 2: I think that's really hard to say, and not just

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Speaker 2: for me. With where the Bucks put that line, I

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Speaker 2: don't think they know where the money's coming in. They

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Speaker 2: know they're gonna get an enormous handle on this game,

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Speaker 2: but they put this line in the dead zone where

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Speaker 2: the market will get to dictate, you know, setting it

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Speaker 2: at nine, the market will get to dictate does it

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Speaker 2: get up to ten or is it going to move

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Speaker 2: back down towards seven? But the book was not or

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Speaker 2: the Bucks we're not willing to sort of plant their

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Speaker 2: flag on one side or the other of that. They're

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Speaker 2: leaving this thing in that hazy sort of dead zone

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Speaker 2: and letting the market decide. I honestly don't know, right

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Speaker 2: Like I mean, you know, it doesn't evacuum. You would

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Speaker 2: think that Georgia would be the more public team just

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Speaker 2: from name value going into the past, but Tennessee it's

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Speaker 2: been hard to buy a Tennessee ticket and not cash

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Speaker 2: this year. So like at some point that there's gonna

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Speaker 2: be a critical mass sort of like with the twenty nine,

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Speaker 2: twenty nineteen LGU team where people just started to bet

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Speaker 2: on them, bet on them, bet on them. Towards the

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Speaker 2: end of the year, Tennessee is about to hit that

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Speaker 2: threshold as well. So it's really hard for me to

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Speaker 2: predict exactly where the sharps are going to be in

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Speaker 2: this game and where the public is going to be.

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Speaker 1: Do you think the just one last thing, do you

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Speaker 1: think the line as far as the over sixty five

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Speaker 1: and a half is what it's currently looking like. Do

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Speaker 1: you think that's right on money? You think it's a

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Speaker 1: little high for a number one, number two? You think

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Speaker 1: that's gonna be playing I mean, obviously you're gonna talk

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Speaker 1: about this a little bit later in the week, but

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Speaker 1: just at a first eyes glance, you think that's gonna

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Speaker 1: be playable.

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Speaker 3: It does feel a little bit high to me on

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Speaker 3: first glance.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure, you know, because again, like Tennessee's defense

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Speaker 2: can address what Jordia's offense would prefer to do. And

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Speaker 2: then Jordia's defense is so good. But then again, Tennessee's

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Speaker 2: been lighting up everybody like Kentucky has an awesome defense.

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Speaker 2: Kentucky has a top ten as people as defense, and

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Speaker 2: they can defend both the run.

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Speaker 3: In the past, except for on Saturday when they're playing

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Speaker 3: the Boss.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you wouldn't have known it last week exactly. Gonna

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Speaker 1: be an awesome game to watch. We got another one,

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Speaker 1: number six Alabama seven to one, coming up against number

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Speaker 1: fifteen LSU who's six and two, both teams coming off

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Speaker 1: of a bye. This, I mean this a normal week

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Speaker 1: would probably be a big powerhouse game as a must

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Speaker 1: tune in. Obviously Georgia Tennessee taking that, But what are

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Speaker 1: you thinking about this, bad boy?

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Speaker 2: I'm a little surprised with how with how high that

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00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:14,719
Speaker 2: line opened in Alabama's favor, being a thirteen point favorite

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00:14:14,760 --> 00:14:18,679
Speaker 2: on the road at night in Baton Rouge with an

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00:14:18,800 --> 00:14:21,480
Speaker 2: LSU team that has been playing a lot better in

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Speaker 2: recent weeks.

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Speaker 3: It would that's a bridge too far for me. At

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Speaker 3: the thirteen number.

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Speaker 2: My justin line in that game is Alabama minus ten

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Speaker 2: point seven. I feel like the far line would be

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Speaker 2: closer to ten as opposed to the thirteen.

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Speaker 3: This one will be interesting.

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Speaker 2: You were talking about where's the money gonna go on

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Speaker 2: Tennessee Georgia at this one's really interesting too, guys. I'm

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Speaker 2: I'm I'm gonna be sniffing around LSU hard this week.

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Speaker 3: Do you place.

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Speaker 2: You know, if you're interested at LSU, do you place

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Speaker 2: your bet early and then, you know, like guarding yourself

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Speaker 2: against falling into the twelves, or do you wait on

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Speaker 2: the idea that this thing could get up to thirteen

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Speaker 2: and a half or even fourteen. I'm gonna be looking

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Speaker 2: around at the market early in the week to try

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Speaker 2: to sort of gauge where that where that's going, But

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Speaker 2: I definitely prefer LSU.

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Speaker 1: You think this has to be like them coming off

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Speaker 1: of a buy situation, why they're getting that. I kind

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Speaker 1: of agree with you. I feel like this would be

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Speaker 1: sitting around more like a ten. But maybe this is

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Speaker 1: them coming off of a bye, having a week to

337
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Speaker 1: recoup themselves, obviously having just kind of a re established

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Speaker 1: moment of having a loss this year. And even though

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Speaker 1: it is not a normal elge, not a normal number

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Speaker 1: fifteen LSU team, even though we're going into home, I

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Speaker 1: feel like this is a giving the extra benefit, maybe

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Speaker 1: even two or three points because they're coming off of

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Speaker 1: a bye.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say just name value because you never

345
00:15:38,520 --> 00:15:40,760
Speaker 2: see the Alabama game where that you don't have to

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00:15:40,760 --> 00:15:43,640
Speaker 2: pay the tax on the Alabama side, and that hasn't

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Speaker 2: changed this year, despite you know, for instance, them losing

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Speaker 2: to Tennessee, a loss that looks way better in hindsight, Like,

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Speaker 2: you know, Bryce Young first of all, was compromising that game,

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Speaker 2: and now we know, I mean Tennessee looks like sort

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Speaker 2: of a well by a then, So I mean, you know,

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Speaker 2: with that, the market has not lost any faith in Alabama.

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Speaker 3: That's sort of what I think that is.

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Speaker 2: But your point's well taken as well on the by

355
00:16:06,640 --> 00:16:10,560
Speaker 2: which hopefully gave Bryce Young another week to get healthy,

356
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Speaker 2: and hopefully he's gonna be the healthiest he's been since

357
00:16:13,320 --> 00:16:17,000
Speaker 2: pre injury in this game, and we'll see how he does.

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Speaker 3: But ulis, you can defend the past. So it's gonna

359
00:16:18,760 --> 00:16:19,320
Speaker 3: be interesting.

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00:16:19,400 --> 00:16:22,040
Speaker 1: So how about we go from these two awesome great

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00:16:22,120 --> 00:16:27,120
Speaker 1: matchups one versus two, you know, big great records division battles,

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00:16:27,280 --> 00:16:30,280
Speaker 1: and then we go and we look at number two

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00:16:30,360 --> 00:16:34,560
Speaker 1: Ohio State, who's eight to oh going up against one

364
00:16:34,720 --> 00:16:38,280
Speaker 1: and seven Northwestern. We reason we bring it up, obviously,

365
00:16:38,360 --> 00:16:41,600
Speaker 1: is because Ohio State. I've got a huge line on it.

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00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:45,360
Speaker 1: It's early set, thirty eight points for Ohio State. What

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00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:47,400
Speaker 1: do you think? Where's the bet on this one? Can

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00:16:47,440 --> 00:16:51,240
Speaker 1: you bet? Is Ohio State gonna put up forty plush.

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00:16:51,640 --> 00:16:54,920
Speaker 2: Well yeah, in terms of the margin for sure, maybe,

370
00:16:55,280 --> 00:16:57,120
Speaker 2: but yeah, but yeah, in terms of just road scoring,

371
00:16:57,120 --> 00:17:00,480
Speaker 2: they're gonna put up way more than that. Northwestern defense

372
00:17:00,560 --> 00:17:02,400
Speaker 2: is so bad that last week they gave up havanty

373
00:17:02,440 --> 00:17:04,840
Speaker 2: points to Iowa. It was the first Iowa game I

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00:17:04,880 --> 00:17:06,960
Speaker 2: was watching, was like, Oh, Iowa can move the ball,

375
00:17:07,119 --> 00:17:09,240
Speaker 2: and the announcers the whole game were like, Oh, this

376
00:17:09,359 --> 00:17:12,080
Speaker 2: is sort of a renaissance of Iowa offensive football. If

377
00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:14,000
Speaker 2: they can just keep playing this way the rest of

378
00:17:14,000 --> 00:17:16,919
Speaker 2: the year, Iowa might not lose again. And I was

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00:17:16,960 --> 00:17:20,080
Speaker 2: thinking like, yeah, if only they could play Northwestern every

380
00:17:20,119 --> 00:17:23,560
Speaker 2: game for the rest of the year. And Northwestern's offense

381
00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:26,880
Speaker 2: stinks too, like they just don't have any talent. They

382
00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:30,040
Speaker 2: try to run tempo and get their yardage that way

383
00:17:30,160 --> 00:17:33,200
Speaker 2: by gassing defenders and catching you off guard, stuff like that,

384
00:17:33,440 --> 00:17:35,879
Speaker 2: but it don't work. It's all just smoking merors bs

385
00:17:35,960 --> 00:17:38,440
Speaker 2: at any decent defense could just wipe off the board.

386
00:17:38,760 --> 00:17:42,959
Speaker 2: They pose zero threat to Iowa's defense. Ohio State's defense

387
00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:45,320
Speaker 2: isn't quite as good as Iowa's, but it's pretty close

388
00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:48,440
Speaker 2: now that it's ticked up with Jim Knowles there. I

389
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Speaker 2: definitely would not be taking the points with Northwestern at home,

390
00:17:52,320 --> 00:17:56,000
Speaker 2: even though it is an enormous line. My system would

391
00:17:56,000 --> 00:17:59,520
Speaker 2: suggest it's not as inflated as a lot of these

392
00:17:59,560 --> 00:18:02,760
Speaker 2: games to be my system as Ohio State minus thirty

393
00:18:02,760 --> 00:18:05,520
Speaker 2: six point six. So this feels in line to me.

394
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Speaker 2: I'm not interested in leg thirty eight of the road

395
00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:11,320
Speaker 2: with Ohio State either, I don't think so. It's probably

396
00:18:11,359 --> 00:18:13,080
Speaker 2: gonna be a stay away from me, but yeah, I'm

397
00:18:13,080 --> 00:18:16,400
Speaker 2: not interested in in trying to back Northwestern in the spot.

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Speaker 1: Also, sixty two and a half is the early over under. Again,

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00:18:19,520 --> 00:18:21,720
Speaker 1: that kind of feels like one. Ohio State would probably

400
00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:24,040
Speaker 1: have to carry most of that, so there might be

401
00:18:24,080 --> 00:18:28,920
Speaker 1: a stay away potentially across the board. And want to

402
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Speaker 1: remind everybody that you guys have a chance to win

403
00:18:31,760 --> 00:18:35,760
Speaker 1: a signed T. Higgins Cincinnati Bengals helmet. How much better

404
00:18:35,760 --> 00:18:38,640
Speaker 1: did that get? Unfortunately with Jamar Chase out the number

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Speaker 1: one And this is courtesy of our friends over at

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00:18:40,560 --> 00:18:42,800
Speaker 1: Pristine Auction. All you gotta do is you got to

407
00:18:42,800 --> 00:18:46,239
Speaker 1: subscribe to the Betting Pros YouTube channel right now. If

408
00:18:46,280 --> 00:18:48,320
Speaker 1: you're watching the video, it's like right below us. It's

409
00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:51,119
Speaker 1: really easy. Then go and comment below this video. You

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00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:54,639
Speaker 1: can say how handsome Thor and I are, whatever you

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00:18:54,640 --> 00:18:56,760
Speaker 1: want to say, whatever smart, awesome thing you want to say,

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00:18:56,800 --> 00:18:59,440
Speaker 1: and that's it. We'll be announcing a winner right here

413
00:18:59,440 --> 00:19:01,960
Speaker 1: on the channels. Make sure you turn on those notifications

414
00:19:02,000 --> 00:19:05,040
Speaker 1: so you guys can be alerted when new episodes are

415
00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:08,000
Speaker 1: up and you can claim your price. T Higgins Cincinnati

416
00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:12,800
Speaker 1: Bengals autograph helmet, pretty pretty awesome. We give a focus into.

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Speaker 3: TCU last week.

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Speaker 1: TCU coming off of a forty one thirty one victory

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Speaker 1: to West Virginia, number seventeen, number seven team in the nation.

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Speaker 1: They're going up against Texas Tech. This is a big

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Speaker 1: twelve battle. TCU eight no Texas Tech four and four.

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00:19:26,359 --> 00:19:29,000
Speaker 1: The early line though in this I don't know if

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00:19:29,000 --> 00:19:32,200
Speaker 1: this smells or as fishy at all. TCU by ten

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Speaker 1: at home eight and no verses four and four. Maybe

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00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:36,520
Speaker 1: you would think there'd be a little bit more of

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00:19:36,600 --> 00:19:39,600
Speaker 1: a of a difference between that spread, maybe a little

427
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Speaker 1: bit higher. But what do you think, Thor TCU ten points.

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Speaker 3: I agree it feels a little bit light to me.

429
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Speaker 2: My system has TCU minus eleven point three and coming

430
00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:52,639
Speaker 2: off the kids Texas Tech just hat. I watched that

431
00:19:52,680 --> 00:19:55,960
Speaker 2: game when they were playing Baylor. They looked bad, and

432
00:19:56,040 --> 00:19:58,119
Speaker 2: it was in a spot that was sort of a

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00:19:58,119 --> 00:20:01,840
Speaker 2: spotlight spot for Texas Tech that day that they had

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00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:05,400
Speaker 2: put they'd either retired Mahomes's number or put him into

435
00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:07,840
Speaker 2: their Hall of Fame. But it was like Pat Mahomes

436
00:20:07,960 --> 00:20:12,119
Speaker 2: Day in Lubbock, and Joey McGuire was the longtime Baylor

437
00:20:12,160 --> 00:20:14,720
Speaker 2: assisted that recruited both of the kids on the other roster,

438
00:20:15,119 --> 00:20:18,840
Speaker 2: and they could not help from getting absolutely blasted. And

439
00:20:18,840 --> 00:20:20,760
Speaker 2: then at the end of the game, Texas Tech started

440
00:20:20,800 --> 00:20:23,480
Speaker 2: to making some weird decisions, like they were getting blown out,

441
00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:25,840
Speaker 2: and they decided to put Tyler Shuck into the game,

442
00:20:26,080 --> 00:20:27,919
Speaker 2: the kid who broke his collar bone in September. We

443
00:20:27,960 --> 00:20:31,000
Speaker 2: hadn't seen him since, and now that they're sort of

444
00:20:31,040 --> 00:20:33,600
Speaker 2: on the wrong end of an avalanche, and they decided

445
00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:36,280
Speaker 2: to throw Shuck in, called off the bench when he

446
00:20:36,320 --> 00:20:38,919
Speaker 2: hasn't played in months. His very first throw as a

447
00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:41,840
Speaker 2: pick sex, I think his second play, he got sacked.

448
00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:44,800
Speaker 2: There were several more sacks to come. He looked really bad.

449
00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:48,720
Speaker 2: You're definitely gonna see you know, Baron Morton is going

450
00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:51,199
Speaker 2: to be the guy going forward. They soured on on

451
00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:54,080
Speaker 2: Donovan Smith earlier in the year, and shuck. I don't

452
00:20:54,080 --> 00:20:56,040
Speaker 2: know if he just doesn't have it, or if he's

453
00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:59,119
Speaker 2: just not healthy or what it is. But Baron Morton

454
00:20:59,119 --> 00:21:01,440
Speaker 2: has has a decent arm and certainly they're going to

455
00:21:01,520 --> 00:21:02,600
Speaker 2: try to attack.

456
00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:03,720
Speaker 3: TCU through the air.

457
00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:07,040
Speaker 2: But TCU it's another one of these teams like Tennessee

458
00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:10,280
Speaker 2: that has overcome circumstances over and over and over again

459
00:21:10,600 --> 00:21:15,040
Speaker 2: and continues to cash tickets. I mean, like these last

460
00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:17,880
Speaker 2: three four or five weeks, every single time, there's been

461
00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:20,760
Speaker 2: something sort of fortunate that happened to TCU that allowed

462
00:21:20,760 --> 00:21:24,080
Speaker 2: them to cash the ticket. Last week, my, my, the

463
00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:27,679
Speaker 2: sharp thread that I'm in. People were going nuts with

464
00:21:27,800 --> 00:21:30,600
Speaker 2: the last play from TCU West Virginia. I don't know

465
00:21:30,640 --> 00:21:33,600
Speaker 2: if you saw it. At the very end, tc was

466
00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:35,520
Speaker 2: only leading by three points, so they were at like

467
00:21:35,560 --> 00:21:39,359
Speaker 2: the West Virginia's like thirty yard line, and they decided

468
00:21:39,400 --> 00:21:41,960
Speaker 2: to go for it up fourth down. West Virginia jumps

469
00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:44,560
Speaker 2: off sides and so Max Dugy was like, screw it,

470
00:21:44,600 --> 00:21:46,720
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna chuck it deep and they got a

471
00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:48,840
Speaker 2: touchdown pass on that play to cover with like you know,

472
00:21:48,880 --> 00:21:51,000
Speaker 2: twenty five seconds left or whatever to cover the seven

473
00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:53,400
Speaker 2: and a half. Prior to that, it had been quarterback

474
00:21:53,440 --> 00:21:56,240
Speaker 2: injuries to the opponent in every single game, like going

475
00:21:56,280 --> 00:21:59,159
Speaker 2: back like the last three or four before that. You know,

476
00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:02,680
Speaker 2: you keep expect to TCU's sort of circumstantial luck to

477
00:22:02,760 --> 00:22:05,920
Speaker 2: run out. But in this case, I think the values

478
00:22:05,960 --> 00:22:08,280
Speaker 2: on TCU in the pre game and I think they

479
00:22:08,320 --> 00:22:09,800
Speaker 2: match up decently well here.

480
00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:13,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I saw the two most popular dogs

481
00:22:13,280 --> 00:22:16,520
Speaker 1: I saw for last Saturday, we're Kentucky and West Virginia,

482
00:22:16,600 --> 00:22:19,880
Speaker 1: and I saw a lot of people bemoaning the brutal,

483
00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:23,040
Speaker 1: brutal loss they got to TCU. So that was I

484
00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:25,240
Speaker 1: also want to point out for this week as far

485
00:22:25,240 --> 00:22:27,640
Speaker 1: as rank games go, because there might be something higher

486
00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:30,720
Speaker 1: that I'm not looking at. The highest over under is

487
00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:34,720
Speaker 1: set for this game at seventy one with a ranked opponent.

488
00:22:35,400 --> 00:22:38,400
Speaker 1: Does that feel a little too high? I know, again

489
00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:40,800
Speaker 1: it's early. You probably hit on it later in the week,

490
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:44,280
Speaker 1: but seventy one points for Texas Tech TCU, do you

491
00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:45,840
Speaker 1: think that's at all going to be playable?

492
00:22:46,560 --> 00:22:47,840
Speaker 3: Not this one?

493
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:50,480
Speaker 2: Like I think the book is like how high can

494
00:22:50,520 --> 00:22:53,399
Speaker 2: we set this thing? My just a total on that game.

495
00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:56,640
Speaker 2: My systems, it's the highest of the week. Seventy eight

496
00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:59,399
Speaker 2: points is what my system set for the overunder of

497
00:22:59,400 --> 00:22:59,800
Speaker 2: that game.

498
00:23:00,160 --> 00:23:03,720
Speaker 1: There will be points, there will be more, there will

499
00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:06,359
Speaker 1: be blood, there will be points. All right, let's go

500
00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:09,879
Speaker 1: over to Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State number eighteen, six and

501
00:23:09,920 --> 00:23:13,000
Speaker 1: two going up against Kansas five and three. What do

502
00:23:13,040 --> 00:23:13,960
Speaker 1: we got on this game?

503
00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:17,639
Speaker 2: So my my adjusted line on that game is Oklahoma

504
00:23:17,760 --> 00:23:19,840
Speaker 2: State minus five point eight.

505
00:23:20,880 --> 00:23:23,879
Speaker 3: Adjusted total on the game another very high one. I have.

506
00:23:24,200 --> 00:23:27,160
Speaker 2: My systems adjusted total in that game is seventy five.

507
00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:29,840
Speaker 2: So we we're gonna have some shootouts in the Big

508
00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:34,320
Speaker 2: twelve this week with this line. It's sort of curious,

509
00:23:34,440 --> 00:23:37,520
Speaker 2: right that it's only Oklahoma State minus three and a half.

510
00:23:37,880 --> 00:23:40,600
Speaker 2: It's kind of interesting. Maybe a part of that is

511
00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:44,280
Speaker 2: just sort of the market in the immediate aftermath of

512
00:23:44,320 --> 00:23:49,119
Speaker 2: Oklahoma State getting annihilated by Kansas State and Kansas State's

513
00:23:49,119 --> 00:23:52,320
Speaker 2: backup quarterback and Will Howard, I mean, that was like

514
00:23:52,480 --> 00:23:54,640
Speaker 2: right from the jump, it was it was like that

515
00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:57,240
Speaker 2: that meme of like stop it, he's already dead, you know,

516
00:23:57,359 --> 00:23:59,480
Speaker 2: sort of a thing. They just kept they kept pouring

517
00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:01,639
Speaker 2: it on. So you know, maybe that has something to

518
00:24:01,640 --> 00:24:04,360
Speaker 2: do with it. Kansas was on you know, Oklahoma State

519
00:24:04,400 --> 00:24:07,480
Speaker 2: had the awful week. Kansas was on buy and Kansas

520
00:24:07,520 --> 00:24:11,560
Speaker 2: badly needed it because the last three games consecutively before that,

521
00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:15,040
Speaker 2: Kansas had suffered a major injury in every single one.

522
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:17,640
Speaker 2: One of the things I'm gonna be monitoring for in

523
00:24:17,680 --> 00:24:20,960
Speaker 2: this game is you go back to that one of

524
00:24:21,000 --> 00:24:24,000
Speaker 2: the three major injuries I was just referring to, I

525
00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:26,520
Speaker 2: think the first one Jalen Daniels went when he got

526
00:24:26,600 --> 00:24:30,680
Speaker 2: knocked out against Funny Enough, ironically enough TCU, which started

527
00:24:30,720 --> 00:24:31,639
Speaker 2: the run of TCU.

528
00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:32,840
Speaker 3: Knocking out the opposing quarterbacks.

529
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:35,760
Speaker 2: But what like the week after that, there was the

530
00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:39,240
Speaker 2: report that Jalen Daniels had had suffered this this severe

531
00:24:39,720 --> 00:24:42,000
Speaker 2: shoulder separation and he was going to be out for

532
00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:44,880
Speaker 2: the year. That's what a Lawrence Journal World Beat reporter reported.

533
00:24:45,280 --> 00:24:48,280
Speaker 2: Daniels comes out, quote tweets that guy and was basically like,

534
00:24:48,320 --> 00:24:50,800
Speaker 2: this guy doesn't know what he's talking about. And then

535
00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:55,719
Speaker 2: the next weekend, Pete Thammel of ESPN generally very reliable,

536
00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:59,880
Speaker 2: he reported that Daniels is not out for the season

537
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:03,600
Speaker 2: and that the earliest possible game he could return is

538
00:25:03,640 --> 00:25:06,720
Speaker 2: this one. So I don't know that. There's a lot

539
00:25:06,720 --> 00:25:09,840
Speaker 2: of different smoke as far as the information coming out,

540
00:25:10,040 --> 00:25:13,199
Speaker 2: like you know, where the reporters are saying and then

541
00:25:13,280 --> 00:25:14,199
Speaker 2: Daniel's responding to it.

542
00:25:14,240 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 3: Whatever.

543
00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:17,760
Speaker 2: But if Kansas gets Daniels back in this game, that

544
00:25:17,920 --> 00:25:20,760
Speaker 2: certainly ticks them up. He probably worth a couple points

545
00:25:20,760 --> 00:25:23,960
Speaker 2: on the spread against Jason Bean, so that that's gonna

546
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:26,800
Speaker 2: be something to watch out for. But yeah, it's it's

547
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:28,040
Speaker 2: interesting where this line opened.

548
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:28,840
Speaker 1: It's a little fishy.

549
00:25:28,920 --> 00:25:29,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, a little fishy.

550
00:25:30,119 --> 00:25:32,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, Like you said, like you've got to account for

551
00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:35,439
Speaker 1: the absolute blowout that they took, but still, you know,

552
00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:38,080
Speaker 1: the ranked team like this coming off of that, it

553
00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:40,480
Speaker 1: seems a little fishy with Daniels is back. By the way,

554
00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:43,040
Speaker 1: are you going to jump immediately if they release any

555
00:25:43,119 --> 00:25:45,680
Speaker 1: props rushing yard props on Daniels? Are going to jump

556
00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:46,280
Speaker 1: on it this week?

557
00:25:46,520 --> 00:25:48,400
Speaker 3: I might, yeah for sure.

558
00:25:49,560 --> 00:25:52,800
Speaker 2: And and by the way, I think this is another thing,

559
00:25:52,920 --> 00:25:55,280
Speaker 2: you know, it's not just sort of like the perceptual thing.

560
00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:58,639
Speaker 3: This is also a very good spot for Kansas.

561
00:25:58,720 --> 00:26:01,600
Speaker 2: I would say, you know, both Oklahoma State coming off

562
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:03,720
Speaker 2: of what they came off of, but Oklahoma State also

563
00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:06,320
Speaker 2: took their second loss and not only that their second

564
00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:08,680
Speaker 2: loss in the Big Twelve, and not only that their

565
00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:11,560
Speaker 2: second loss of their last three games. This is a

566
00:26:11,560 --> 00:26:15,600
Speaker 2: big time deflation spot for them. I mean, earlier in October,

567
00:26:15,640 --> 00:26:18,880
Speaker 2: earlier in the month, this was a team that was like, ah,

568
00:26:19,000 --> 00:26:21,080
Speaker 2: may maybe we can run the table, maybe we can

569
00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:23,119
Speaker 2: win the Big Twelve, maybe we can even go to

570
00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:26,040
Speaker 2: the College Football Playoff. That stuff is all off the

571
00:26:26,040 --> 00:26:29,560
Speaker 2: board now. I mean even like the sort of long

572
00:26:29,600 --> 00:26:31,840
Speaker 2: shot of like, you know, maybe we can can can

573
00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:34,480
Speaker 2: be discussed as a one last team that's now gone

574
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:37,880
Speaker 2: as well. So their dreams for this season are now over.

575
00:26:38,040 --> 00:26:40,640
Speaker 2: On the Oklahoma state side. Now you travel to Lawrence

576
00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:43,520
Speaker 2: to this to play Kansas, a team coming off of

577
00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:46,359
Speaker 2: the buy and one interesting thing and this is the

578
00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:48,160
Speaker 2: time of the year where we start to talk about

579
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:51,879
Speaker 2: this stuff. Kansas has been stuck on five wins since

580
00:26:51,920 --> 00:26:55,040
Speaker 2: their fifth game. They started out five and zero. They've

581
00:26:55,080 --> 00:26:57,320
Speaker 2: had some close losses since you know, they lost by

582
00:26:57,359 --> 00:27:00,320
Speaker 2: seven to TCU in the game or Daniel's guy injured,

583
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:03,520
Speaker 2: they lost by ten to Oklahoma in the game where

584
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:06,080
Speaker 2: their cornerback one got injured, and they lost by ten

585
00:27:06,160 --> 00:27:10,760
Speaker 2: to the Baylor, Right, they've been close to getting that

586
00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 2: sixth win.

587
00:27:12,000 --> 00:27:14,760
Speaker 3: They have not quite got pushed that rock all the

588
00:27:14,760 --> 00:27:15,520
Speaker 3: way up the hill.

589
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:19,040
Speaker 2: This program has not been to a bowl game since

590
00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:21,680
Speaker 2: I think the year I was out of undergrad which

591
00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:23,320
Speaker 2: I'm not even gonna say what year that was because

592
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:25,639
Speaker 2: I don't what to day myself like that. But that

593
00:27:25,680 --> 00:27:28,000
Speaker 2: would be for a lot of programs, it don't you know,

594
00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:30,080
Speaker 2: like that's not as big of a deal for the

595
00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:33,000
Speaker 2: Kansas program. That is enormous the idea of getting to

596
00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:35,679
Speaker 2: six wins. There's gonna be a big emphasis on this

597
00:27:35,720 --> 00:27:39,520
Speaker 2: game because Kansas their schedule going forward, it's the hardest

598
00:27:39,560 --> 00:27:42,280
Speaker 2: in the nation, and I mean it basically has been

599
00:27:42,320 --> 00:27:44,919
Speaker 2: since post the fifth game. The schedule after that just

600
00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:47,639
Speaker 2: became an absolute bear. So any game where they have

601
00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:49,919
Speaker 2: a potential to win it is going to get enormous

602
00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:52,800
Speaker 2: emphasis going for this six win. It's a good situational

603
00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:54,760
Speaker 2: spot for Kansas. Maybe that explained some of the line

604
00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:55,240
Speaker 2: stuff too.

605
00:27:55,720 --> 00:27:58,399
Speaker 1: Always love the breakdowns and if you do as well,

606
00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:01,680
Speaker 1: and if you're looking for free player props and breakdowns

607
00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:04,000
Speaker 1: on almost every game that college football has to offer.

608
00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:04,760
Speaker 3: It's not just here.

609
00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:07,000
Speaker 1: Because this is the early look. When you get a

610
00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:10,840
Speaker 1: real look. Join Thorne Eystrom and Mike Ferrell on Game

611
00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:13,639
Speaker 1: Day Live, presented by DraftKings, each and every Saturday, starting

612
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:16,560
Speaker 1: at ten am Eastern. If you've got questions you need answered,

613
00:28:16,920 --> 00:28:19,520
Speaker 1: they got you. A team of experts will be live

614
00:28:19,560 --> 00:28:22,439
Speaker 1: for ninety minutes of NonStop action leading up to kickoff

615
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:24,679
Speaker 1: to answer all those questions. So join the live stream

616
00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:27,400
Speaker 1: and tosh your questions in the chat. Game Day Live

617
00:28:27,440 --> 00:28:31,280
Speaker 1: presented by Draft Kings Saturday, ten am Eastern. Make sure

618
00:28:31,280 --> 00:28:33,680
Speaker 1: to do it friends. A couple more games here, will

619
00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:36,719
Speaker 1: take a look at number five Clemson eight and oh

620
00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:39,280
Speaker 1: he has got Notre Dame, so at least we've got

621
00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:41,760
Speaker 1: a little bit of a matchup here. Currently, the early

622
00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:44,360
Speaker 1: line looks like Clemson three and a half. Again, it's

623
00:28:44,360 --> 00:28:47,200
Speaker 1: fishy three and a half points on the road, sure,

624
00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:48,920
Speaker 1: but it's the number five team in the nation going

625
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:51,760
Speaker 1: up against Notre Dame. Over under is under fifty at

626
00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:54,400
Speaker 1: forty seven and a half. Why is this fishy? Why

627
00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:55,959
Speaker 1: do we have a fishy Clemson line?

628
00:28:56,560 --> 00:28:56,840
Speaker 3: Yeah?

629
00:28:57,360 --> 00:29:00,760
Speaker 2: I agree with you. It is fishy. That is Clemson

630
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:05,160
Speaker 2: minus four point one. It's it's certainly nowherethy and it's

631
00:29:05,200 --> 00:29:09,560
Speaker 2: certainly interesting. I mean where we're sort of kismet where

632
00:29:09,960 --> 00:29:13,640
Speaker 2: Clemson really struggled to beat Syracuse and they needed to

633
00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:15,160
Speaker 2: yank their quarterback in that game to do it, and

634
00:29:15,200 --> 00:29:17,000
Speaker 2: then of course they were on by last week. But

635
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:19,440
Speaker 2: then we saw the opponent this week, Notre Dame play

636
00:29:19,480 --> 00:29:22,320
Speaker 2: Syracuse last week did not have the same kind of problems.

637
00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:24,440
Speaker 2: So maybe like the what do you call it, the

638
00:29:24,480 --> 00:29:27,720
Speaker 2: transference property of like the A plus B B, maybe

639
00:29:27,760 --> 00:29:30,400
Speaker 2: that's informing some of the confidence in Notre Dame, like

640
00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:31,160
Speaker 2: early on in the.

641
00:29:31,080 --> 00:29:32,560
Speaker 3: Week in the marketplace.

642
00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:36,160
Speaker 2: But like you wonder how Notre Dame is going to

643
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:38,800
Speaker 2: do against Notre Dame's offense is going to do against

644
00:29:38,800 --> 00:29:43,600
Speaker 2: his Clemson defense, because Clemson's Clemson's front seven is so nasty,

645
00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:47,200
Speaker 2: and Notre Dame is they have a dearth of playmakers.

646
00:29:47,200 --> 00:29:49,800
Speaker 2: It's basically run the ball and then try to force

647
00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:50,840
Speaker 2: the ball to Michael Mahyer.

648
00:29:51,840 --> 00:29:53,240
Speaker 3: Clemson at least.

649
00:29:52,960 --> 00:29:55,560
Speaker 2: Has the athletes that some of these other teams don't

650
00:29:55,760 --> 00:29:58,479
Speaker 2: in terms of trying to address Michael Mayer and the

651
00:29:58,520 --> 00:30:02,040
Speaker 2: rest of the offense is vanilla on on the Notre

652
00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:05,440
Speaker 2: Dame side, But then on the Clemson side, you also

653
00:30:05,480 --> 00:30:08,800
Speaker 2: have questions about their offense. Last time we saw them,

654
00:30:08,960 --> 00:30:11,960
Speaker 2: that was the game against Syracuse where they benched Dju

655
00:30:12,400 --> 00:30:13,720
Speaker 2: and they brought in Klubnik.

656
00:30:13,960 --> 00:30:14,920
Speaker 3: They won that game.

657
00:30:14,960 --> 00:30:16,720
Speaker 2: After they did that, Klubnik didn't look great, And of

658
00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:18,640
Speaker 2: course right after the game, Dabbo came out and was like,

659
00:30:18,960 --> 00:30:19,200
Speaker 2: you know.

660
00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:20,800
Speaker 3: Dju is going to be our starter.

661
00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:23,960
Speaker 2: But that's something interesting to watch and to think about

662
00:30:24,080 --> 00:30:28,360
Speaker 2: as well, because if nothing else, we now know definitively.

663
00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:31,920
Speaker 3: That Dju's leash is very very short.

664
00:30:31,880 --> 00:30:34,120
Speaker 2: And so if DJU comes into this game and is

665
00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:38,160
Speaker 2: struggling in the first half, notre Dame Paul's ahead, you

666
00:30:38,240 --> 00:30:40,840
Speaker 2: might see the hook in that one. Maybe maybe that

667
00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:43,280
Speaker 2: is some of the pessimism too in the marketplace for

668
00:30:43,360 --> 00:30:47,480
Speaker 2: Clemson right now, where the line is, the margins are

669
00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:50,640
Speaker 2: pretty close for me. But if that line comes down

670
00:30:50,840 --> 00:30:52,840
Speaker 2: and if this thing gets any if it gets you know,

671
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:54,640
Speaker 2: I mean certainly if it got under a field goal,

672
00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:57,720
Speaker 2: I would absolutely be laying on Clemson. That's what I'm

673
00:30:57,720 --> 00:30:59,320
Speaker 2: gonna be crossing my fingers for in the next couple

674
00:30:59,360 --> 00:31:00,880
Speaker 2: of days, as I had cap that game.

675
00:31:01,040 --> 00:31:02,520
Speaker 3: But it'll be interesting to see where it goes.

676
00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:04,760
Speaker 1: So in the world that not all things are created

677
00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:08,160
Speaker 1: equal in that you know number five eight no Clemson

678
00:31:08,240 --> 00:31:11,280
Speaker 1: versus Notre Dame was five and three, or for Michigan,

679
00:31:11,360 --> 00:31:14,880
Speaker 1: who's eight no. Is coming up against Rutgers, and there

680
00:31:15,040 --> 00:31:17,880
Speaker 1: is no fishiness because Michigan is a twenty five and

681
00:31:17,880 --> 00:31:21,320
Speaker 1: a half point favorite, So no questions on offense. Rutgers

682
00:31:21,320 --> 00:31:23,920
Speaker 1: obviously not the same team that Notre Dame is, but

683
00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:25,719
Speaker 1: you think there's going to be a bet here for

684
00:31:25,840 --> 00:31:27,320
Speaker 1: number four Michigan, who's been on a roll.

685
00:31:28,120 --> 00:31:30,560
Speaker 2: So my line in that game is Michigan minus twenty

686
00:31:30,560 --> 00:31:33,960
Speaker 2: five point four. My system's total line is fifty five.

687
00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:38,880
Speaker 2: The question for people considering Rutgers in that thing is,

688
00:31:39,360 --> 00:31:43,000
Speaker 2: can you sort of deduce a way, deduce a path

689
00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:45,680
Speaker 2: for Rutgers to score any points in this game right like,

690
00:31:45,680 --> 00:31:47,800
Speaker 2: because they're going to have to get to what.

691
00:31:49,400 --> 00:31:53,120
Speaker 3: At least ten, certainly maybe to fourteen to cover this thing.

692
00:31:53,960 --> 00:31:56,840
Speaker 2: The I actually like the Rutgers defense, like they they

693
00:31:56,880 --> 00:32:01,400
Speaker 2: play tough, they play assignment, sound, they tall, it's but.

694
00:32:01,320 --> 00:32:04,560
Speaker 3: The offense is just so putrid. It's just so bad.

695
00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:07,080
Speaker 2: Last week they were in Minneapolis, where I'm coming to

696
00:32:07,120 --> 00:32:10,080
Speaker 2: you live for um and they could do absolutely nothing

697
00:32:10,160 --> 00:32:12,680
Speaker 2: against the golphers, a Gopher team that had lost I

698
00:32:12,680 --> 00:32:15,600
Speaker 2: believe three straight games heading into that game. The Gophers

699
00:32:15,680 --> 00:32:18,120
Speaker 2: had no problem shutting the lights out on the Rutgers offense.

700
00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:21,920
Speaker 2: So this handicap entirely comes down to you, can you

701
00:32:22,000 --> 00:32:25,960
Speaker 2: perceive Rutgers scoring like again, getting into the double digits

702
00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:28,640
Speaker 2: against the Michigan team that would make them potentially viable

703
00:32:28,640 --> 00:32:31,120
Speaker 2: against the spread. It's hard for me to trust them

704
00:32:31,520 --> 00:32:34,080
Speaker 2: to do that, especially when I know the quality of

705
00:32:34,080 --> 00:32:35,040
Speaker 2: Michigan's defense.

706
00:32:35,200 --> 00:32:37,080
Speaker 1: Did you say, did you have the over your early

707
00:32:37,120 --> 00:32:40,360
Speaker 1: line of fifty five fifty five? It's forty five and

708
00:32:40,360 --> 00:32:42,800
Speaker 1: a half. Just pointing out that for the public, So

709
00:32:42,880 --> 00:32:45,040
Speaker 1: forty five and a half post this, if you want

710
00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:47,600
Speaker 1: to talk about a value versus thorest line, that's a

711
00:32:47,760 --> 00:32:50,080
Speaker 1: ten point value right there on the over under. Is

712
00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:51,880
Speaker 1: that something you think you're going to feel comfortable playing

713
00:32:51,960 --> 00:32:54,680
Speaker 1: the over under based on what you're seeing the So

714
00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:56,920
Speaker 1: you said, you said it's forty four live, I say

715
00:32:56,960 --> 00:32:57,960
Speaker 1: forty five and a half.

716
00:32:58,080 --> 00:32:58,880
Speaker 3: Forty five and a half.

717
00:32:59,000 --> 00:33:02,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, that would be more interested in that than this

718
00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:05,280
Speaker 2: side because we don't need is.

719
00:33:05,440 --> 00:33:07,520
Speaker 3: We don't need as much help for the Wreckers offense.

720
00:33:07,800 --> 00:33:10,000
Speaker 2: But you know, as far as where that number is,

721
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:13,160
Speaker 2: I'm confident that Michigan is gonna put up points in

722
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:16,080
Speaker 2: this game. You know, maybe not an offensive bonanza, but

723
00:33:16,120 --> 00:33:18,560
Speaker 2: they scored. They've scored on every defense that they played

724
00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:20,960
Speaker 2: this year. I'll take you back to the Penn State game.

725
00:33:21,160 --> 00:33:24,840
Speaker 2: Penn State's got a pretty decent defense. Michigan carved them

726
00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:27,800
Speaker 2: up and a team that other people There's been teams

727
00:33:27,800 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 2: that have really struggled run the ball in Penn State,

728
00:33:29,680 --> 00:33:33,680
Speaker 2: Michigan did not whatsoever. So yes, you know I was

729
00:33:33,720 --> 00:33:36,760
Speaker 2: saying this stuff. I respect Rutgers defense, I absolutely do,

730
00:33:37,200 --> 00:33:39,280
Speaker 2: but Michigan's certainly going to put up points on them.

731
00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:42,959
Speaker 2: And where that line or where that that total is, again,

732
00:33:43,440 --> 00:33:45,960
Speaker 2: we don't need to help from Rutgers's offense that we

733
00:33:46,040 --> 00:33:49,800
Speaker 2: potentially do when considering like the side bet of the game.

734
00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:52,040
Speaker 2: So yeah, I would definitely lean towards the over in

735
00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:53,360
Speaker 2: that two more games.

736
00:33:53,360 --> 00:33:56,320
Speaker 1: Will take a look at number thirteen. Kansas State, who's

737
00:33:56,360 --> 00:33:59,560
Speaker 1: now six and two, is going to be hosting Texas,

738
00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:01,960
Speaker 1: who is five and three, in a Big twelve matchup.

739
00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:06,040
Speaker 1: You've got Texas on the road, is a two and

740
00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:09,600
Speaker 1: a half point favorite versus a top fifteen team at home.

741
00:34:10,160 --> 00:34:12,759
Speaker 1: So again, is this fishy or is this just right?

742
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:14,680
Speaker 3: Did you say it's two and a half?

743
00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:18,600
Speaker 1: Now I see minus two and a half texts early.

744
00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:21,360
Speaker 3: Holy So I just looked at a different site.

745
00:34:21,480 --> 00:34:23,680
Speaker 2: I've now seen it on that side and listen at

746
00:34:23,680 --> 00:34:25,120
Speaker 2: Texas minus one and a half.

747
00:34:25,440 --> 00:34:26,520
Speaker 3: That's fascinating.

748
00:34:26,560 --> 00:34:29,200
Speaker 2: And the reason why is in the openers when those

749
00:34:29,280 --> 00:34:33,520
Speaker 2: drop yesterday afternoon. On Sunday afternoon, Texas dropped if minus

750
00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:36,799
Speaker 2: four or even minus four and a half, that is

751
00:34:36,840 --> 00:34:39,839
Speaker 2: really interesting that the money is coming in on Kansas State.

752
00:34:40,360 --> 00:34:43,640
Speaker 2: It's really interesting. And I'm also super disappointed because I've

753
00:34:43,880 --> 00:34:46,200
Speaker 2: I missed my window to bet on Kansas State at

754
00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:48,439
Speaker 2: over a field goal. I like Kansas State in this game.

755
00:34:49,400 --> 00:34:53,120
Speaker 2: This fascinating early week movement. I think it's right. I

756
00:34:53,120 --> 00:34:56,080
Speaker 2: think Kansas State matches up really well in this game.

757
00:34:56,800 --> 00:35:00,040
Speaker 2: They not only the way that they play, but the

758
00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:02,880
Speaker 2: the way their team is constituted. They slow down the

759
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:06,200
Speaker 2: game like their offense. It allows their defense to get

760
00:35:06,200 --> 00:35:08,560
Speaker 2: some rest, which in a game like this is big.

761
00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:11,279
Speaker 2: And then they have the really solid defense which can

762
00:35:11,360 --> 00:35:14,279
Speaker 2: address both the pass and the run game. And this

763
00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:17,120
Speaker 2: Texas team they can be multiple of course, because they

764
00:35:17,200 --> 00:35:18,920
Speaker 2: now have the quarterback. And then you go along with

765
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:21,880
Speaker 2: bijon whatever a defense that's going to slow.

766
00:35:21,680 --> 00:35:22,040
Speaker 3: Them at all.

767
00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:24,399
Speaker 2: They need to be able to defend the both of them.

768
00:35:24,719 --> 00:35:27,400
Speaker 2: Kansas State can. And then we were talking about some

769
00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:29,960
Speaker 2: of the home field advantages early earlier in the show.

770
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:32,759
Speaker 2: For instance, you know LSU and Baton Rouge at Night

771
00:35:33,120 --> 00:35:35,160
Speaker 2: or a couple of those different ones. Kansas State and

772
00:35:35,160 --> 00:35:38,040
Speaker 2: the Little Apple is an enormous home field advantage. This

773
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:40,560
Speaker 2: is going to be a really tough environment for Texas,

774
00:35:40,680 --> 00:35:43,640
Speaker 2: and in particular their first year starting quarterback Quinn Ewers,

775
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:46,319
Speaker 2: who's now making what is the fifth start of his

776
00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:49,400
Speaker 2: career or you know whatever. Now he's got to go

777
00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:53,240
Speaker 2: into Kansas State. This is a tough one. My line

778
00:35:53,239 --> 00:35:56,279
Speaker 2: on this game in my system is it's basically a

779
00:35:56,320 --> 00:35:59,960
Speaker 2: pick them. I have Texas minus zero point three points,

780
00:36:00,320 --> 00:36:02,920
Speaker 2: so my system says this game is a coin flip.

781
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:07,320
Speaker 2: I actually slightly prefer Kansas State, and I totally agree

782
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:08,960
Speaker 2: with where the line movement has gone early on.

783
00:36:09,320 --> 00:36:12,040
Speaker 1: Final matchup that we're gonna take a preview on is

784
00:36:12,040 --> 00:36:15,000
Speaker 1: in the ACC two ranked teams number twenty versus number

785
00:36:15,000 --> 00:36:17,800
Speaker 1: twenty one, Wake Forest number twenty six and two versus

786
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:20,280
Speaker 1: six and two in C State, who is twenty first

787
00:36:20,280 --> 00:36:23,279
Speaker 1: in the nation. Early line looks like wake minus four,

788
00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:26,160
Speaker 1: you're over is set around fifty four. What do we

789
00:36:26,200 --> 00:36:27,040
Speaker 1: got on this bad boy?

790
00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:31,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think this line is too short.

791
00:36:31,800 --> 00:36:34,040
Speaker 3: So you have two different things going on here.

792
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:36,719
Speaker 2: Where last week, you know, I've been talking about some

793
00:36:36,719 --> 00:36:39,560
Speaker 2: of these teams that looked bad last week, there weren't

794
00:36:39,560 --> 00:36:42,520
Speaker 2: many teams that look worse than Wake Forest. And the

795
00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:46,319
Speaker 2: third quarter that Sam Hartman had in that game was

796
00:36:46,400 --> 00:36:50,120
Speaker 2: one of the worst singular quarters I've ever seen, like

797
00:36:50,160 --> 00:36:52,719
Speaker 2: a college quarterback play. And it was crazy that the

798
00:36:52,840 --> 00:36:56,160
Speaker 2: quarterback was that good. But there was like every time

799
00:36:56,200 --> 00:36:58,839
Speaker 2: you looked up it was a pick six, Like I mean,

800
00:36:58,960 --> 00:37:02,000
Speaker 2: it was just wild how quickly that one got away

801
00:37:02,000 --> 00:37:05,440
Speaker 2: from Wake Forest. But they're awful showing in that game

802
00:37:05,480 --> 00:37:07,919
Speaker 2: where they lose. Was it forty eight to twenty one

803
00:37:08,000 --> 00:37:11,000
Speaker 2: to Louisville? That awful showing. It's gonna give you a

804
00:37:11,000 --> 00:37:13,560
Speaker 2: little bit of line value turning around to this game,

805
00:37:13,880 --> 00:37:16,800
Speaker 2: particularly when you know the context that NC State is

806
00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:18,600
Speaker 2: way down after they lost Devin.

807
00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:20,680
Speaker 3: Leary, their starting quarterback for the rest of the season.

808
00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:23,760
Speaker 2: NC State has not been the same team since Devin

809
00:37:23,840 --> 00:37:27,319
Speaker 2: Leary went out this line. To me, it should be

810
00:37:27,320 --> 00:37:30,200
Speaker 2: a little bit higher, knowing those sorts of things. But

811
00:37:30,280 --> 00:37:34,000
Speaker 2: I also get that the market it just probably doesn't

812
00:37:34,040 --> 00:37:35,880
Speaker 2: want to bet on wake Forest right now after what

813
00:37:35,960 --> 00:37:37,640
Speaker 2: it just saw against Louisville.

814
00:37:37,680 --> 00:37:40,440
Speaker 3: But Sam Harmon ain't gonna play that bad again. Friends.

815
00:37:40,440 --> 00:37:43,200
Speaker 1: You can find him on Twitter at four KU. Make

816
00:37:43,239 --> 00:37:45,239
Speaker 1: sure you guys are subscribed to the YouTube channel right

817
00:37:45,280 --> 00:37:48,040
Speaker 1: here over I'm betting pros and the podcast because it's

818
00:37:48,080 --> 00:37:50,120
Speaker 1: not just about the look ahead. You're going to get

819
00:37:50,160 --> 00:37:52,560
Speaker 1: all the week's action as store has got more content

820
00:37:52,719 --> 00:37:54,880
Speaker 1: coming for you the rest of the week, so you

821
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:56,640
Speaker 1: guys can get set as alweys.

822
00:37:56,880 --> 00:37:57,640
Speaker 3: I'm jacked up.

823
00:37:57,760 --> 00:37:59,719
Speaker 1: I'm ready to bet some action, and i gonna even

824
00:37:59,760 --> 00:38:02,799
Speaker 1: wait Friday or Saturday. I'm already ready for Tuesday. I'm

825
00:38:02,800 --> 00:38:05,120
Speaker 1: ready for some overs. I'm gonna do it. Hopefully you

826
00:38:05,239 --> 00:38:07,600
Speaker 1: will as well. Make sure to tweet at everybody let

827
00:38:07,680 --> 00:38:09,560
Speaker 1: us know what you're betting from action because thor is

828
00:38:09,560 --> 00:38:11,960
Speaker 1: going to be jacked up and as they must follow

829
00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:15,319
Speaker 1: on Twitter, especially when college football is going down. It's

830
00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:17,760
Speaker 1: the early look right here. I'm betting pros that store.

831
00:38:17,960 --> 00:38:21,000
Speaker 1: I'm Welsh. I will talk to you guys next week.

832
00:38:21,080 --> 00:38:22,520
Speaker 1: The Thor will be here later in the week.

833
00:38:22,640 --> 00:38:23,320
Speaker 3: Goodbye friends,