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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us prow

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Speaker 1: read enough? No, we're running again, so smooth, so sweet,

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Speaker 1: slipid sixteen just glorious extortution. Guys, all I'm looking for

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Speaker 1: is sixty percent effort, four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 1: How shot with that? Shop with mind?

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Speaker 2: Good buddy, and.

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Speaker 1: That's why you see your beautiful tiers. Look at his movements,

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Speaker 1: the most dangerous.

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Speaker 2: Amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 2: Shut up, I'm trying the one. It's left to.

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Speaker 1: One, the wide eyed, drilled bibus. How old earth pick

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Speaker 1: that happens?

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Speaker 2: Hello everyone, and welcome back to Wondergood, the soccer betting

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Speaker 2: podcast from the Action Network. My name is Michael Leeboff

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Speaker 2: and joining me for this episode is BJ Hunningham. Anthony's

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Speaker 2: off this week, but BJ and.

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Speaker 1: I will have you covered.

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Speaker 2: We'll go through all ten matches coming up in the

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Speaker 2: Premier League this weekend. B Jail run through the Bundesliga

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Speaker 2: Syria a La Liga Legal, will give out a underdog

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Speaker 2: parlay and then our best bets for the upcoming Premier

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Speaker 2: League slate. But before we get to that, just a

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Speaker 2: reminder that Wonder Goal is presented by bet three six

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Speaker 2: their biggest and best odds with the incredible super boosts.

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Speaker 2: one or older and president Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,

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Speaker 2: New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia. We're eighteen and older in Kentucky.

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Speaker 2: If you have a gambling problem, or you know someone

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Speaker 2: who does and needs help, please call Wyn Hunt Gambler

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Speaker 2: or one eight hundred bets off and Iowa Terms, conditions

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Speaker 2: and restrictions apply. Okay, Bjay. I will start with a

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Speaker 2: the headliner for this weekend, which is a Sunday kickoff

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Speaker 2: between Manchester City and Manchester United. The Manchester Derby City

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Speaker 2: is laying minus three p fifty here prohibited favorite coming

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Speaker 2: off of a crazy win over in the FA Cup

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Speaker 2: on Tuesday over Lootontown, which Kevin de Bruyna and Hurling

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Speaker 2: Holland linked up for four goals United nine to one.

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Speaker 2: The draw here is plus four seventy five. You this,

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Speaker 2: this has gotta be tough for you, Like it seems

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Speaker 2: like this this price is is outrageous. It feels outrageous

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Speaker 2: when you look at the two teams and all that.

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Speaker 2: But you would still rather bet Manchester City at this

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Speaker 2: kind of price than man United. Huh.

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Speaker 1: Yeah it Honestly it has more to do with who

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Speaker 1: is actually available for Manchester United, because if they had

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Speaker 1: a full strength squad, I would probably sit here and

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Speaker 1: saying like whoa, this pribace is kind of crazy, probably passing,

56
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Speaker 1: you know, rarely. Maybe you know what, I've made like

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Speaker 1: one bet on United over the last two years, but

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Speaker 1: I just don't know what they're going to do out

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Speaker 1: of possession or how they can actually stop cities. So

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Speaker 1: as of right now, we're recording this before they play

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Speaker 1: Nottingham Forrest in the FA Cup. Hoylan's out, Sandra Martinez

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Speaker 1: is out, Luke Shaw is out, Harry Maguire's out for

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Speaker 1: that match, and also Rafael Vron and Bruno Fernandz are

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Speaker 1: also questionable to play in the FA Cup, So who

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Speaker 1: knows if those guys are actually going to play in

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Speaker 1: the weekend. But in either case, it's going to be

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Speaker 1: a second choice back line for Manchester United trying to

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Speaker 1: defend City and what we've seen from United, especially in

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Speaker 1: these big type of games because we haven't seen them play,

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Speaker 1: you know, a big opponent. They've been facing a lot

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Speaker 1: of teams in the bottom half the table and going

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Speaker 1: on a run against them. But you know, this kind

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Speaker 1: of takes me back to the match against Liverpool when

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Speaker 1: they played the mit Anfield, drew them zero zero, gave

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Speaker 1: up what thirty two shots or something like that got

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Speaker 1: it to zero zero. In that match, they didn't even

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Speaker 1: try to press Liverpool. They just kind of sat deep

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Speaker 1: and they just said, hey, like this is all we

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Speaker 1: can do, Like there's really not much else that uh like,

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Speaker 1: we can't press them because if we do, we're gonna

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Speaker 1: give our backline exposed. Like so that is really the

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Speaker 1: only scenario that I think, out of possession that they

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Speaker 1: can do in this match. And just hope Onana stands

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Speaker 1: on his head. Even in the previous match, you know

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Speaker 1: City won that three nothing City created over four expected goals. No,

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Speaker 1: Nana actually still on his head for pretty much the

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Speaker 1: entire match to keep them actually in it and give

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Speaker 1: them a chance. So you know, you see obviously the

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Speaker 1: difference that Kevin de Bruyna makes when he comes back

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Speaker 1: in the lineup for City. You know, against Bournemouth they

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Speaker 1: struggled for chance creation because they were trying to dominate

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Speaker 1: the middle of the pitch. They started Kovacic and Mattheas

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Speaker 1: Nunis uh Is the two advanced midfielders in a four

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Speaker 1: to one four to one. You may see something like

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Speaker 1: that again with the ruin end the lineup. You know,

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Speaker 1: he obviously from chance creation, he's the best one in

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Speaker 1: the Premier League. So I don't see a scenario how

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Speaker 1: United keeps City out here. And given the fact that

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Speaker 1: Hoylan's out as well, who is their best transition threat,

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Speaker 1: and the fact that even Marcial is out as well,

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Speaker 1: they don't really have a true striker. So they're either

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Speaker 1: gonna have to start Rashford up top where he's uncomfortable,

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Speaker 1: Garnacho something like that, but either in either case, it's

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Speaker 1: just a really bad scenario here for United. So I

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Speaker 1: don't really like laying in a city. I don't really

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Speaker 1: do that that often, but in this case, given how

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Speaker 1: bad United also penned against the Big Six away from

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Speaker 1: home last nine matches, minus nine point five expected gold

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Speaker 1: differential only three points. So I'm taking City minus one

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Speaker 1: and a half. I'm just laying it, and I feel

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Speaker 1: even if they don't cover, I feel like we're gonna

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Speaker 1: walk away from this match being like either man Onana

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Speaker 1: stood on his head. City just couldn't finish at the end,

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Speaker 1: and it'll come out as you know, probably should have

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Speaker 1: won based on expecting. So that's just kind of how

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Speaker 1: I see this match going. So I'm just I'm just

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Speaker 1: laying it with City.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I think one.

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Speaker 1: I'm happy you brought up the Liverpool match. I was

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Speaker 1: going to do that.

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Speaker 2: I think that United will go into this game knowing

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Speaker 2: that the only way they get out of this match

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Speaker 2: with a result is if they shut down shop completely.

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Speaker 2: And so I think you could look at like a

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Speaker 2: first half under a first half nil nil is like

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Speaker 2: plus three thirty three at bet three six five. I

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Speaker 2: think those are interesting bets. But other than that, I

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Speaker 2: don't have much because it's it's it's one thing I

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Speaker 2: think with Liverpool, it's it's that strategy can work a

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Speaker 2: little bit better there. They want a frenetic pace to games,

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Speaker 2: they want the ball to be on the carpet, pinging around,

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Speaker 2: and cities just not really like that. They want to

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Speaker 2: be much more pragmatic with their build up and such,

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Speaker 2: and that makes it a little bit more difficult too.

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Speaker 2: They're like an anaconda that's just going to like suffocate

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Speaker 2: the life out of you defensively. So I just I

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Speaker 2: don't think that the strategy can work over full ninety minutes,

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Speaker 2: but for forty five minutes.

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Speaker 1: And yeah, and even if United decided to press, like

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Speaker 1: even if they decided to do what they've been doing

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Speaker 1: these last five or six matches, it's just like press

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Speaker 1: from their front line and just not move their back

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Speaker 1: line up or their center, their central midfielders up in

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Speaker 1: eight in the press like City will exploit that like

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Speaker 1: in an instant and just destroy them. So they really

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Speaker 1: can't do that even if they want to try it.

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Speaker 1: So I don't, like you said, like, yeah, maybe they

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Speaker 1: can keep them out for for forty five minutes, but

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Speaker 1: it seems like one way traffic. But of course we'll

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Speaker 1: probably be sitting here, you know, on Monday, morning and

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Speaker 1: being like, man, could you believe United just won two?

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Speaker 1: Nothing there with those two transitions, all.

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Speaker 2: Right, we'll move on from there to Saturday morning ten

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Speaker 2: am kickoff between Brentford and Chelsea. The Bees are plus

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Speaker 2: two ten at home. Chelsea is plus one fifteen in

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Speaker 2: the draw here plus two seventy five. Brentford coming off

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Speaker 2: of a disappointing loss to another one, yeah, another one

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Speaker 2: on I guess west Ham and Monday night football.

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Speaker 1: Chelsea.

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Speaker 2: Meanwhile, they've just held their their last well, they played

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Speaker 2: the League Cup final in their last Premier League action

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Speaker 2: was that one one draw against City. They are two wins,

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Speaker 2: a draw and two losses in their last five Chelsea,

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Speaker 2: and those two losses were to Wolves in Liverpool, and

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Speaker 2: I think that actually kind of tells you who Chelsea

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Speaker 2: is this season. We said it all along.

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Speaker 1: They can put up a.

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Speaker 2: Great effort against Liverpool like they did in the first

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Speaker 2: match week of the season, or the two draws against City,

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Speaker 2: but they can also lose to anybody. Brentford is I

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Speaker 2: think still to play for me here. They've got two

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Speaker 2: wins and eight losses in their last ten matches and

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Speaker 2: the numbers look ugly, but I think if you take

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Speaker 2: a little bit of a deeper look, it's part of

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Speaker 2: that is just because of the schedule, and I do

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Speaker 2: not excuse the performance against west Ham at all, but

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Speaker 2: when you go beyond that, it's the schedule has been rough, right,

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Speaker 2: like their last five Premier League matches, So if you

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Speaker 2: go their last six Premier League matches, it's been Spurs, City, Wolves,

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Speaker 2: Liverpool City, West Ham. Uh, they've had a weird schedule

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Speaker 2: where they've played Wolves four times. They played Wolves four

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Speaker 2: times in like the span of six weeks too. There's

183
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Speaker 2: there is some weird miss in there their overall schedule,

184
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Speaker 2: and it's you have to go back a little while.

185
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Speaker 2: I think the win over the two nil winover Wolves

186
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Speaker 2: was was a decent showing for them on the road

187
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Speaker 2: against the team that was in good form.

188
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Speaker 1: But this isn't the same.

189
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Speaker 2: We say it all the time that like Brentford, they

190
00:09:45,200 --> 00:09:48,000
Speaker 2: punch up better than anybody. This hasn't been really the

191
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Speaker 2: case this season. They have a drug against Spurs, but

192
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Speaker 2: if you look at their one kind of signature win

193
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Speaker 2: this season, they'd come against a Chelsea team back in

194
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Speaker 2: at the end of October. So I do think at

195
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Speaker 2: home with a Chelsea team that's really not playing for

196
00:10:02,040 --> 00:10:08,320
Speaker 2: much besides trying to avoid embarrassing. Yeah, another embarrassing finish. Like,

197
00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:12,320
Speaker 2: I do think that Brentford has everything to play for

198
00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:17,680
Speaker 2: here and that the expected goals numbers, like the under

199
00:10:17,960 --> 00:10:22,320
Speaker 2: the hood numbers, really aren't all that wide here between

200
00:10:22,320 --> 00:10:27,080
Speaker 2: these two clubs. So yeah, I guess I'll This is

201
00:10:27,120 --> 00:10:28,800
Speaker 2: my long winded way of saying, I'm gonna be on

202
00:10:28,840 --> 00:10:32,320
Speaker 2: Brentford once again on Saturday.

203
00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:37,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna take a break from betting Brentford. My

204
00:10:37,360 --> 00:10:39,240
Speaker 1: numbers are obviously showing value on them as they do

205
00:10:39,280 --> 00:10:43,920
Speaker 1: every single week, but I'm instead going to take a

206
00:10:43,960 --> 00:10:46,120
Speaker 1: little both teams to score in over two and a half,

207
00:10:46,160 --> 00:10:48,080
Speaker 1: which the best price you can find is minus one

208
00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:51,520
Speaker 1: thirty eight at that three six five. I just don't

209
00:10:51,559 --> 00:10:56,400
Speaker 1: really recognize this Brentford defense right now. Last eight matches

210
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Speaker 1: you mentioned, the schedule has been very very tough. You know,

211
00:10:58,720 --> 00:11:02,440
Speaker 1: last eight they've played you know, Wolves, you know twice

212
00:11:02,440 --> 00:11:04,960
Speaker 1: in the Premier League, you know, as you mentioned, Liverpool

213
00:11:05,040 --> 00:11:09,600
Speaker 1: City twice and Tottenham. Over those eight matches, they have

214
00:11:09,679 --> 00:11:13,480
Speaker 1: conceded eleven big scoring chances and are only two point

215
00:11:13,520 --> 00:11:15,679
Speaker 1: one to five spectacles for ninety minutes. Like why we

216
00:11:15,760 --> 00:11:18,040
Speaker 1: loved betting on Brentford for so long is because they're

217
00:11:18,040 --> 00:11:21,160
Speaker 1: so good at preventing those big scoring chances because they're

218
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Speaker 1: not going to pressure you when you get the ball

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Speaker 1: inside the final third, like they are going to stay

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Speaker 1: very passive, and they've been doing doing a great job

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Speaker 1: at staying compact in that little block and preventing those

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Speaker 1: high quality chances. Well now they're not doing that. They're

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Speaker 1: making honestly, what it is, they're just making uncharacteristic, dumb

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Speaker 1: mistakes that we have never seen from Brentford. So who

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Speaker 1: knows if those continue. Mark Fleckin has been getting better

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Speaker 1: as of late, but he's still bad. Like it's you know,

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Speaker 1: he went from like like a minus seven post shot

228
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Speaker 1: XG to like a minus six point five, so I

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Speaker 1: mean a little bit of improvement. But but the Brentford

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Speaker 1: offense has been really good. You know, through this difficult

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Speaker 1: stretch of eight matches, they're still averaging over one and

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Speaker 1: a half expect goals for ninety minutes. And Ivan Tony

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Speaker 1: being back in the lineup, who I will be betting

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Speaker 1: once again for any time goals scorer has been a

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Speaker 1: breath of fresh air for Brentford, especially going forward in attack,

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Speaker 1: because he's honestly the perfect striker for their system because

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Speaker 1: he's very good at hold up play, he's very good

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Speaker 1: at running in behind, he's an aerial threat. He's averaging

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Speaker 1: three and three point three shots per ninety so he's

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Speaker 1: getting great production for them. And if you look at

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Speaker 1: this match and you look at what Chelsea struggles with,

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Speaker 1: they're actually a pretty good team out of possession. They're

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Speaker 1: very flawed in possession because in a match like this

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Speaker 1: where Brentford's going to sit in a low defensive block,

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Speaker 1: Chelsea is going to be tempted and they're going to

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Speaker 1: do it. They're going to push Gallagher and they're going

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Speaker 1: to push Enzo Fernandez high up the pitch, try and

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Speaker 1: overload the last line of defense to try and get

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Speaker 1: the ball in the middle somewhere between this Brentford defensive block. Well,

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Speaker 1: we just watched a team that plays very very similarly

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Speaker 1: to Brentford torch Chelsea repeatedly in transition. That was Wolves.

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Speaker 1: They scored four goals on the road at Stanford Bridge.

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Speaker 1: Brentford's gonna set up in the exact same defensive block

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Speaker 1: that Wolves did they're going to sit just as deep

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Speaker 1: as Wolves did, and they're going to attack from deep

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Speaker 1: just like Wolves did. So given how good Brentford has

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Speaker 1: been in transition, who's I mean, they can definitely put

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Speaker 1: the ball in the back of the net and maybe

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Speaker 1: even score twice here against Chelsea, who's bad in transition

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Speaker 1: defense because they leave Moys' casedo isolated and he hasn't

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Speaker 1: been at the form that he was at Brighton. So

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Speaker 1: both teams a score in over two and a half

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Speaker 1: again is minus one thirty eight. Really, honestly, just a

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Speaker 1: bet against both defenses who are are very very flawed

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Speaker 1: right now in terms of Brentford making mistakes and Chelsea

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Speaker 1: defending and transition. So that's where I'm going with this one.

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Speaker 2: All right, on to Everdon, Yes, huge news.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, let's talk relegation, all right, how doout we do this?

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Speaker 2: Let's kind of couple together Everton and west Ham topies

270
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Speaker 2: plus one oh five at home, west Ham plus two

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Speaker 2: fifty and the draw is to sixty in this one.

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Speaker 2: And we'll also do Lutontown and Villa. Yeah, at the

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Speaker 2: same time. Luton Town plus three twenty at home, Villa

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Speaker 2: minus won thirty four on the road and the draw

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Speaker 2: is plus three twenty for that one, and we can

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Speaker 2: talk relegation around this too. Everdon handed back four points.

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Speaker 2: Now there is a caveat here, there is another in

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Speaker 2: quest open Everton. I think a lot of folks, including myself,

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Speaker 2: like Everdon fans are were fatalistic by nature and for

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Speaker 2: good reason. And I think a lot of people were

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Speaker 2: just skeptical that they handed those four points back because

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Speaker 2: the other deduction was going to come and it will

283
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Speaker 2: be like, you know, another six or something.

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Speaker 1: We will see.

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Speaker 2: Though that said, like obviously that it's been a fascinating

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Speaker 2: relegation market to bet because a lot of it is

287
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Speaker 2: just do you believe that Everdon was gonna win their

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Speaker 2: their case, their appeal nothing.

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Speaker 1: I'm saying, Michael, I'm gonna tell everybody this right now,

290
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Speaker 1: and I message this to somebody, But betting on these

291
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Speaker 1: these court cases, it's been one of the most electric

292
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Speaker 1: things to bet on this entire Premary League season. And

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Speaker 1: you know, I was doing some reading. So essentially what

294
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Speaker 1: happened was is that Everton was handed a ten point

295
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Speaker 1: deduction because there was obviously they broke you know, financial

296
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Speaker 1: fair play rules, but there's also this extra charge of

297
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Speaker 1: they didn't act in good faith, like they tried to

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Speaker 1: cover it up. Through the appeals process, Everton proved that

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Speaker 1: they did act in good faith, so they got four

300
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Speaker 1: points back for that. And now what we have is

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Speaker 1: a benchmark which is six points. Right, So if Nottingham

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Speaker 1: Forest and Everton come through these second you know, set

303
00:15:47,200 --> 00:15:49,880
Speaker 1: of charges or whatever it is, and they at least

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Speaker 1: act in good faith, six points is that benchmark. So

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Speaker 1: it looks like we're not going to go above that.

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Speaker 1: What's hilarious about this whole situation, Michael, is the court

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Speaker 1: case is for both are going to be at the

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Speaker 1: beginning of April, and I was doing some reading about

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Speaker 1: Nottingham Forst today. Their lawyer has been described as the

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Speaker 1: Lionel Messi of sports law, which is very very very

311
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Speaker 1: very funny title to have. But in any case, you know,

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Speaker 1: there is a chance that Notingam Forst won't be handed

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Speaker 1: a full six points. Same thing with Everton. And honestly,

314
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Speaker 1: if you get the table right now, even if Everton

315
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Speaker 1: are handed a six point deduction, who's to say they

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Speaker 1: can't overcome one point against lat in Town given how

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Speaker 1: bad they've been. But what's even more funny about this

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Speaker 1: is that if both teams appeal the April sentence, the

319
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Speaker 1: appeal needs to be done by May twenty fourth, which

320
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Speaker 1: is I believe three or four days after the season

321
00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:42,520
Speaker 1: is over. So we might not know what team is

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Speaker 1: being relegated until these court cases are finalized. And I

323
00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:50,640
Speaker 1: think the Premier League is kind of hoping that Everton

324
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Speaker 1: and Nottingam for is kind of pull away from the pack.

325
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Speaker 1: Here hand the case points and say here you go whatever,

326
00:16:56,040 --> 00:16:58,520
Speaker 1: like let's move on. It's very very funny they're doing this.

327
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Speaker 1: And then they haven't decided one hundred fifteen charges for

328
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Speaker 1: city yet. But that's a conversation for another day. But

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Speaker 1: if you look at the relegation nods right now, Loutontown

330
00:17:06,720 --> 00:17:09,320
Speaker 1: is minus one seventy five at bet three sixty five

331
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Speaker 1: to be relegated OPTA, you know who does obviously all

332
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Speaker 1: the good projections and everything like that, they have Lutontown

333
00:17:17,600 --> 00:17:20,240
Speaker 1: at about minus two thirty ish minus two thirty five

334
00:17:20,280 --> 00:17:23,760
Speaker 1: to be relegated, barring any obviously you know, additional points

335
00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:27,280
Speaker 1: deductions of what we have right now. So what you

336
00:17:27,280 --> 00:17:29,520
Speaker 1: have to tell yourself is like, Okay, is now the

337
00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:33,320
Speaker 1: time to buy Lutontown to be relegated because we obviously

338
00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:36,399
Speaker 1: won't know what these point deductions are. Given the way

339
00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:38,520
Speaker 1: the Louton Town's playing and given the schedule that they

340
00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:41,680
Speaker 1: have coming up, I believe now is absolutely the time

341
00:17:41,680 --> 00:17:44,560
Speaker 1: to buy it because we'll just talk about Nningham Forest

342
00:17:44,560 --> 00:17:47,560
Speaker 1: here against Liverpool. Nuntiam Forrest has been playing a lot

343
00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:51,200
Speaker 1: better under nun They actually have a positive expected gold

344
00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:54,560
Speaker 1: differential is nine matches in charge, and that's even coupling

345
00:17:54,640 --> 00:17:56,480
Speaker 1: it with the with the fact that there was a

346
00:17:56,560 --> 00:17:59,520
Speaker 1: three or four match stretch where their entire back line

347
00:17:59,600 --> 00:18:01,880
Speaker 1: was a way afcot. So now they have their entire

348
00:18:01,920 --> 00:18:04,160
Speaker 1: backline back. They look great in that match against west

349
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Speaker 1: Ham obviously lost to Aston Villa over the weekend, conceded

350
00:18:06,760 --> 00:18:08,840
Speaker 1: close to four expected goals. But you know, that's a

351
00:18:08,840 --> 00:18:11,680
Speaker 1: tough scenario there on the road against a top four,

352
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Speaker 1: top five team. They're going to get Liverpool here and

353
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Speaker 1: I think this is a good situation for them. You know,

354
00:18:16,520 --> 00:18:19,200
Speaker 1: Liverpool's obviously playing in the FA Cup on Wednesday, They're

355
00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:22,600
Speaker 1: probably gonna play the Academy. Because I don't know what

356
00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:26,879
Speaker 1: Liverpool is going to do, Michael, because if you know

357
00:18:27,000 --> 00:18:31,280
Speaker 1: right now they obviously have catastrophic injuries all over the pitch,

358
00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:34,119
Speaker 1: and you know Sala and Nuoniez might be back for

359
00:18:34,200 --> 00:18:37,560
Speaker 1: this match, and that's obviously a big boost to Liverpool.

360
00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:41,800
Speaker 1: But it doesn't look like Soba Sly Curtis Jones is

361
00:18:41,800 --> 00:18:45,520
Speaker 1: obviously still out or Watarro Endo are going to play

362
00:18:46,160 --> 00:18:48,600
Speaker 1: so and even Gravenburg is out now for an extended

363
00:18:48,600 --> 00:18:52,119
Speaker 1: period of time. So what ball stopper does Liverpool have

364
00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:55,040
Speaker 1: in the middle of their pitch. So what that leads

365
00:18:55,080 --> 00:18:57,320
Speaker 1: me to believe is that Liverpool is going to have

366
00:18:57,359 --> 00:18:58,879
Speaker 1: to go back to what we saw at the beginning

367
00:18:58,920 --> 00:19:00,639
Speaker 1: of the season when they were when they had to

368
00:19:00,640 --> 00:19:03,199
Speaker 1: play very, very passive, where they weren't that good defensively

369
00:19:03,560 --> 00:19:09,199
Speaker 1: because they couldn't enact their devastating counterpress that has gotten

370
00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:13,159
Speaker 1: them all these wins recently because of the induction of

371
00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:16,600
Speaker 1: Endo and Gravenbrooke into the squad, because they actually have

372
00:19:16,680 --> 00:19:19,720
Speaker 1: ball stopping So I don't know what Liverpool is going

373
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Speaker 1: to do, especially in this match. I mean, this price

374
00:19:22,480 --> 00:19:25,320
Speaker 1: is high on Liverpool quite frankly. I like Nottingham Forest

375
00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:27,840
Speaker 1: plus one here at home where they've played better, where

376
00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:30,400
Speaker 1: they can actually hit Liverpool in transition to have pace

377
00:19:30,480 --> 00:19:32,880
Speaker 1: to get in behind. You know, even the last match,

378
00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:35,840
Speaker 1: Liverpool got a couple of big chances. One was off

379
00:19:35,960 --> 00:19:40,840
Speaker 1: just a horrible mistake by Matt Turner, so we'll see.

380
00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:44,120
Speaker 1: But Nottingham Forest has been playing a lot better. Both

381
00:19:44,160 --> 00:19:47,360
Speaker 1: them and Everton are significantly better right now in terms

382
00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:50,359
Speaker 1: of underlying metrics than Lutontown and Lootontown's going for it

383
00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:53,439
Speaker 1: and I love them to death, but they're bad now.

384
00:19:53,480 --> 00:19:57,040
Speaker 1: They're expected gol differential is rivaling that of Burnley and

385
00:19:57,119 --> 00:20:00,440
Speaker 1: Sheffield United. So I think now's the time to buy

386
00:20:00,520 --> 00:20:03,040
Speaker 1: Lowtontown to be relegated a minus one seventy five. I

387
00:20:03,040 --> 00:20:05,639
Speaker 1: think by the time these get handed out in April,

388
00:20:06,080 --> 00:20:08,920
Speaker 1: we could see them be eight nine points adrift from

389
00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:09,840
Speaker 1: Forrest and Everton.

390
00:20:11,240 --> 00:20:13,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think that that's a good way to kind

391
00:20:13,160 --> 00:20:15,760
Speaker 2: of just bring these these matches together. It's like, I

392
00:20:15,760 --> 00:20:17,440
Speaker 2: think Everton's a good bed at plus one oh five

393
00:20:17,440 --> 00:20:20,400
Speaker 2: at home that ye, I think. You know, we've talked

394
00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:22,800
Speaker 2: We've talked about west Ham being a paper tiger all season.

395
00:20:23,119 --> 00:20:25,359
Speaker 2: We've talked about Evertton kind of being the opposite of that,

396
00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:28,760
Speaker 2: a team that is much better than it's its record

397
00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:33,360
Speaker 2: and even golder French will would tell you their actual

398
00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:37,800
Speaker 2: points should it should they should have thirty was it

399
00:20:37,840 --> 00:20:40,600
Speaker 2: thirty one points? Yep, they have twenty five by the

400
00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:44,640
Speaker 2: real table. Their expected points is right, is even higher

401
00:20:44,720 --> 00:20:47,199
Speaker 2: than that. Like this is a team that should be

402
00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:51,000
Speaker 2: sitting like between eighth and twelfth in the table, and

403
00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:53,600
Speaker 2: west Ham should be sitting like fourteenth, between like fourteenth

404
00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:56,600
Speaker 2: and sixteenth in the table if you look at like

405
00:20:56,800 --> 00:21:01,120
Speaker 2: the numbers under the hood. And that's why I think,

406
00:21:01,320 --> 00:21:03,840
Speaker 2: you know, even as a pretty short favorite here at

407
00:21:03,840 --> 00:21:05,280
Speaker 2: home on the three way line plus one of five

408
00:21:05,280 --> 00:21:08,159
Speaker 2: evidence worth a bet. And I also like Force, like

409
00:21:08,200 --> 00:21:11,080
Speaker 2: you said, like this this Liverpool, this is not a

410
00:21:11,080 --> 00:21:14,359
Speaker 2: full strength Liverpool team at all, Like this is a

411
00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:16,800
Speaker 2: this is gonna be a very different looking team against

412
00:21:16,800 --> 00:21:18,440
Speaker 2: a Forest team that I think is a bye team

413
00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:20,840
Speaker 2: right now under Nun I think they've they've kind of

414
00:21:20,840 --> 00:21:23,240
Speaker 2: got just got their act together more than anything, which

415
00:21:23,440 --> 00:21:27,359
Speaker 2: is super important when you're in a relegation battle. So

416
00:21:27,400 --> 00:21:29,960
Speaker 2: I'll probably be on Force at at on the money

417
00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:33,360
Speaker 2: light at five to one for that one. Meanwhile, yeah,

418
00:21:33,480 --> 00:21:39,360
Speaker 2: I've got no interest in Luton against Villa, so this, yeah,

419
00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:42,280
Speaker 2: I do Is it likely the Forest wins this weekend? No,

420
00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:46,040
Speaker 2: but I do think that you're gonna see You're gonna

421
00:21:46,040 --> 00:21:49,320
Speaker 2: see Everden pick up points here, You're gonna see Forest,

422
00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:51,520
Speaker 2: even if it's not this weekend pick up start to

423
00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:54,400
Speaker 2: pick up points, and the GAP's just going to become

424
00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:56,840
Speaker 2: wider and wider and wider for Luton Town. And I

425
00:21:56,880 --> 00:21:59,000
Speaker 2: don't think we're even going to have much of a

426
00:21:59,119 --> 00:22:04,520
Speaker 2: of a relegation right by the time March comes to close. Right,

427
00:22:04,640 --> 00:22:07,359
Speaker 2: So I agree with your notion there. I agree with

428
00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:12,080
Speaker 2: your your thought process. I'm playing forth and I know

429
00:22:12,119 --> 00:22:15,280
Speaker 2: that you're looking at Villa and the over in that one.

430
00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:19,600
Speaker 2: So any thoughts on those three matches that you didn't

431
00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:20,600
Speaker 2: get to before we move on?

432
00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:24,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I do like the over in Luton Aston Villa

433
00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:27,359
Speaker 1: probably one of the one of my favorite plays of

434
00:22:27,400 --> 00:22:31,080
Speaker 1: the entire season. Quite frankly so, Luton Town have established,

435
00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:33,280
Speaker 1: and we've talked about this quite a bit, that playing

436
00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:37,280
Speaker 1: a passive zonal marking low block just doesn't work, and

437
00:22:37,560 --> 00:22:40,520
Speaker 1: it hadn't worked for a long time. So what Rob

438
00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:42,560
Speaker 1: Edwards has done is he said we're gonna man mark

439
00:22:42,600 --> 00:22:45,040
Speaker 1: all over the pitch. We're gonna try to press high,

440
00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:46,919
Speaker 1: We're and try to disrupt build up, and we're just

441
00:22:47,040 --> 00:22:49,399
Speaker 1: you know, like we have physical enough players like we

442
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:52,719
Speaker 1: can make it difficult on a lot of teams. They

443
00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:55,399
Speaker 1: tried that against Manchester City in the FA Cup and

444
00:22:55,520 --> 00:22:57,960
Speaker 1: Holland just kept running in behind over and over and

445
00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:00,879
Speaker 1: over again and ended up scoring five goals and in

446
00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:05,680
Speaker 1: less than an hour. I mean, I know aston Villa

447
00:23:05,920 --> 00:23:07,840
Speaker 1: has gone through a lot of injuries, but a lot

448
00:23:07,840 --> 00:23:09,600
Speaker 1: of those injuries are in the defense. I don't understand

449
00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:11,080
Speaker 1: how their offense is not going to be able to

450
00:23:11,119 --> 00:23:13,280
Speaker 1: do the exact same thing here. You know, Ali Watkins

451
00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:16,120
Speaker 1: anytime goalscorer is probably going to be a very live

452
00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:19,760
Speaker 1: bet here because he's he's so good at just running

453
00:23:19,920 --> 00:23:24,240
Speaker 1: making those runs right off the back line. So, you know,

454
00:23:24,359 --> 00:23:28,360
Speaker 1: Aston Villa they obviously have lost basically their best ball stoppers.

455
00:23:28,359 --> 00:23:31,440
Speaker 1: You know, Consa is out, Kamara is out, Diego Carlos

456
00:23:31,520 --> 00:23:34,480
Speaker 1: is out. What that is a big problem with is

457
00:23:34,520 --> 00:23:36,880
Speaker 1: not only defending in transition, which what Lowtontown is going

458
00:23:36,920 --> 00:23:39,480
Speaker 1: to do, but also defending on set pieces. You know,

459
00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:42,119
Speaker 1: aston Villa is the worst team at defending set pieces

460
00:23:42,119 --> 00:23:44,560
Speaker 1: in the Premier League. And those three guys are their

461
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:47,879
Speaker 1: biggest physical presences that can actually aid in helping them

462
00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:50,600
Speaker 1: defend them. They conceded one against Nottingham Forest over the weekend,

463
00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 1: and who's to say they're not going to concede maybe

464
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 1: one or two here against Luton Town. So I projected

465
00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:57,960
Speaker 1: four point two goals for this match, and I really

466
00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:00,320
Speaker 1: think we need to be starting setting these Luton Towns

467
00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:02,719
Speaker 1: at three and a half, not three, and I believe

468
00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:05,239
Speaker 1: as we go throughout the season they will start at

469
00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:07,360
Speaker 1: three and a half and we'll get closer to maybe

470
00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:10,040
Speaker 1: for the first time at least I've seen in the

471
00:24:10,040 --> 00:24:12,919
Speaker 1: Premier League a total set at four, which would be

472
00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:14,600
Speaker 1: very funny to watch. But I think there is a

473
00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:17,399
Speaker 1: chance that we could get there at some point, because

474
00:24:17,800 --> 00:24:20,639
Speaker 1: I mean, Newton Town's going for it. They've conceived the

475
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:22,479
Speaker 1: most expected goals in the Premier League since the being

476
00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:25,120
Speaker 1: in November by a very large margin, and they're going

477
00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:27,760
Speaker 1: to continue to because they have identified this is their

478
00:24:27,760 --> 00:24:29,200
Speaker 1: best chance to say in the Premier League. It's just

479
00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:31,960
Speaker 1: to go for it. So I like the over all.

480
00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:34,480
Speaker 2: Right, so the over in Newton Town and Villa you

481
00:24:34,640 --> 00:24:36,760
Speaker 2: like Forrest to cover. I like them on the money

482
00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:39,840
Speaker 2: line against Liverpool. We both like Everdon against west Ham

483
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:44,639
Speaker 2: to round up that section. Fulham and Brighton. Neither one

484
00:24:44,640 --> 00:24:46,560
Speaker 2: of us has much here. If you have any thoughts,

485
00:24:47,480 --> 00:24:51,960
Speaker 2: let me know. Following plus the injury situation for sixty

486
00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:53,320
Speaker 2: anything interesting here.

487
00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:55,280
Speaker 1: Just Home is now going to be out for the season,

488
00:24:56,240 --> 00:24:59,639
Speaker 1: which is obviously a huge loss for them, along with

489
00:24:59,680 --> 00:25:01,439
Speaker 1: a bunch of with their attackers that are out right

490
00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:04,000
Speaker 1: now for Brighton. So I mean, listen, if Brighton was

491
00:25:04,040 --> 00:25:07,080
Speaker 1: fully healthy, chance I could say, like, maybe you know

492
00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:09,880
Speaker 1: my numbers barring and the injuries are protecting a little

493
00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:11,480
Speaker 1: bit of value here in Brighton. But Foles and playing

494
00:25:11,480 --> 00:25:13,840
Speaker 1: a lot better like crdit to Fulham. We've propped in

495
00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:15,720
Speaker 1: them a lot. They got the winn against Manchester United,

496
00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:18,200
Speaker 1: They've been decent defending in a low block, Paul and

497
00:25:18,280 --> 00:25:21,200
Speaker 1: you'll be back. So this is pretty much an easy

498
00:25:21,200 --> 00:25:24,920
Speaker 1: pass for me. I'm not really that keen to bet

499
00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:28,320
Speaker 1: Brighton anymore at their current state. I honestly think they're

500
00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:30,400
Speaker 1: just kind of like the eighth or ninth best team

501
00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:32,160
Speaker 1: in the Premier League. That's just kind of where they're sitting.

502
00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:34,879
Speaker 1: Instead of being like you know, as we've as we

503
00:25:34,920 --> 00:25:37,119
Speaker 1: saw last year, given how good they were, they were

504
00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:39,480
Speaker 1: like the fourth or fifth. So it's just kind of

505
00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:42,080
Speaker 1: hard to bet brighton these days. I guess all.

506
00:25:42,080 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 2: Right, Newcastle and Wolverhampton up next. Newcastle odds on minus

507
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:49,480
Speaker 2: one ten. Wolve's traveling plus two sixty draw is plus

508
00:25:49,480 --> 00:25:51,760
Speaker 2: three hundred. I was hoping that we'd get a better

509
00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:54,399
Speaker 2: number here on Wolverhampton. It didn't come, so I'm happy

510
00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:54,879
Speaker 2: to pass.

511
00:25:56,040 --> 00:25:58,960
Speaker 1: Yeah. I actually, you know, I actually do like the

512
00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:02,200
Speaker 1: over here. I think this match kind of sets up

513
00:26:02,200 --> 00:26:05,120
Speaker 1: to be. You know, what Newcastle wants now is to

514
00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:07,679
Speaker 1: play very, very aggressively, and you know, the matchkins arsenal

515
00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:09,760
Speaker 1: is not indicative of what's going to happen here. They

516
00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:11,960
Speaker 1: obviously couldn't string two passes together or even get the

517
00:26:11,960 --> 00:26:14,040
Speaker 1: ball out of their own final third. Wolves is not

518
00:26:14,040 --> 00:26:16,040
Speaker 1: going to do that to them. They're gonna sit much

519
00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:21,120
Speaker 1: more passive in their defensive block, and you know, if

520
00:26:21,119 --> 00:26:23,920
Speaker 1: you look at you know, since you know not, Newcastle

521
00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:26,600
Speaker 1: switched to this more aggressive pressing style where they're pushing

522
00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:28,600
Speaker 1: their back line up and going man marking kind of

523
00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:31,480
Speaker 1: everywhere against aston Villa and they got the win there.

524
00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:34,600
Speaker 1: But you know, Since that point, they have played you know,

525
00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:38,679
Speaker 1: similar transition teams in Lwton, Nottingham, Forrest and Bournemouth, and

526
00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:41,440
Speaker 1: all of those teams have just caused problems getting in

527
00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:44,480
Speaker 1: behind their back line because of how slow Newcastle's back

528
00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:48,880
Speaker 1: line is. So for Wolves, who is an outstanding transition team,

529
00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:51,560
Speaker 1: a team that can cause so many problems, I think

530
00:26:51,560 --> 00:26:54,280
Speaker 1: they are actually very live here. Wolves also, which is

531
00:26:54,280 --> 00:26:57,520
Speaker 1: a staple owner Gary O'Neill, are a very very good

532
00:26:57,600 --> 00:26:59,440
Speaker 1: set piece team, even if it hasn't shown up in

533
00:26:59,480 --> 00:27:02,520
Speaker 1: the data yet. Season, Newcastle has really been struggling to

534
00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:04,480
Speaker 1: defend those eighteenth to next sheep or step piece, so

535
00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:07,520
Speaker 1: Wolve's is definitely live. But I went back and watched

536
00:27:07,560 --> 00:27:10,040
Speaker 1: the previous match between these two and I was shocked.

537
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:11,960
Speaker 1: Newcastle was getting the ball in the middle of the

538
00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:14,560
Speaker 1: pitch just over and over and over again against Wolfe's

539
00:27:14,560 --> 00:27:16,960
Speaker 1: defensive block, which is really concerning here. And if you

540
00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:19,560
Speaker 1: look through Wolves is a very puzzling team because we

541
00:27:19,640 --> 00:27:21,800
Speaker 1: love Gary O'Neal and they pull off all these upsets.

542
00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:24,040
Speaker 1: But if you look at their expected gold offensial, it's

543
00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:26,000
Speaker 1: like the fifth worst in the Premier League. So I

544
00:27:26,040 --> 00:27:28,120
Speaker 1: don't really know what's going on. Like their defensive numbers

545
00:27:28,160 --> 00:27:32,920
Speaker 1: still aren't that great, so you know, we'll see what happens.

546
00:27:32,960 --> 00:27:35,000
Speaker 1: But I think the over is definitely live here in

547
00:27:35,040 --> 00:27:37,560
Speaker 1: a match that is set up to be very, very

548
00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:40,880
Speaker 1: back and forth, the basketball type match. So projected three

549
00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:42,840
Speaker 1: point eight goals. So I do like over three goals

550
00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:43,720
Speaker 1: in Mass one ten.

551
00:27:43,920 --> 00:27:46,080
Speaker 2: Spurs and Palace. That's what I do like. I like

552
00:27:46,119 --> 00:27:48,200
Speaker 2: Crystal Palace here they're plus five fifty on the road.

553
00:27:48,240 --> 00:27:50,840
Speaker 2: Spurs are laying a big number here minus two hundred.

554
00:27:52,000 --> 00:27:55,520
Speaker 2: The draw is plus three thirty three. So I'm happy

555
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:58,360
Speaker 2: to take a shot here on Palace, just not even

556
00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:01,439
Speaker 2: just in this match as generally, because I think we

557
00:28:01,480 --> 00:28:05,800
Speaker 2: all know that the talent level on this team was

558
00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:08,960
Speaker 2: much greater than the results that Roy Hodgson was getting

559
00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 2: from them this season, that the style of soccer they

560
00:28:11,880 --> 00:28:14,399
Speaker 2: were playing was much was a lot more pragmatic than

561
00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:17,680
Speaker 2: I think people wanted to see. When you have the

562
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:20,679
Speaker 2: talent that Palace has in its rank ranks, especially with

563
00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:21,399
Speaker 2: a couple players with.

564
00:28:21,400 --> 00:28:22,160
Speaker 1: The ball at their feet.

565
00:28:22,880 --> 00:28:26,880
Speaker 2: That showed over the weekend with a three zero win,

566
00:28:26,920 --> 00:28:31,560
Speaker 2: a dominant, dominant win over Burnley, and it was one

567
00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:34,240
Speaker 2: match and it was against Burnley. But I do think

568
00:28:34,280 --> 00:28:36,920
Speaker 2: that this Palace team is going to be a bet

569
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:39,320
Speaker 2: on for the rest of the season. They should be

570
00:28:39,320 --> 00:28:41,560
Speaker 2: able to kind of click into gear here. I think

571
00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:43,760
Speaker 2: that it's going to turn into one of those situations

572
00:28:43,760 --> 00:28:46,760
Speaker 2: where when we're doing like a season preview for next year,

573
00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:48,600
Speaker 2: we're like, we'll watch out for this Palace team if

574
00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:52,000
Speaker 2: if they keep things together, which is of course unlikely

575
00:28:52,080 --> 00:28:55,240
Speaker 2: with the way teams will be circling around like as

576
00:28:55,280 --> 00:28:59,400
Speaker 2: a a least, but I'm happy to bet them here.

577
00:28:59,440 --> 00:29:03,040
Speaker 2: I think that even though the results don't show it

578
00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:07,480
Speaker 2: for Spurs in the bigger sample of the whole season,

579
00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:10,920
Speaker 2: they are vulnerable I think to losing to lesser opposition.

580
00:29:11,000 --> 00:29:13,960
Speaker 2: They just did it to Wolves. They've you know that

581
00:29:14,080 --> 00:29:17,760
Speaker 2: the drug. It's evident that they've had some nail biters,

582
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:21,840
Speaker 2: and not just in the Premier League but cup matches

583
00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:24,280
Speaker 2: against like Burnley they lost to a west Ham team.

584
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:29,160
Speaker 2: We don't really find all that inspiring. It's actually what

585
00:29:29,200 --> 00:29:33,120
Speaker 2: to a pair of two to one losses to Wolves

586
00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:35,800
Speaker 2: on the season, So a Spurs team I think that

587
00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:38,200
Speaker 2: can be had. There are always a couple of mistakes

588
00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:39,960
Speaker 2: away from a game, just getting out of hand and

589
00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:43,040
Speaker 2: and they're happy to play that style. They kind of

590
00:29:43,120 --> 00:29:45,400
Speaker 2: put their their the pedal to the metal, play some

591
00:29:45,480 --> 00:29:48,040
Speaker 2: higher risk, high rewards stuff and I think that they

592
00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:52,760
Speaker 2: can be caught here. So with with Palace the rest advantage.

593
00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:54,800
Speaker 2: I know, Spurs because they were off less last weekend,

594
00:29:54,840 --> 00:29:56,840
Speaker 2: you can look into that, but I think that most

595
00:29:56,880 --> 00:29:59,520
Speaker 2: signs here point to Palace being a live underdog.

596
00:30:01,000 --> 00:30:03,080
Speaker 1: I gets Spurs, yeah, I mean they definitely are. I

597
00:30:03,080 --> 00:30:05,479
Speaker 1: mean Spurs is obviously they're always right for an up

598
00:30:05,520 --> 00:30:08,720
Speaker 1: set like this. Yeah, it'll be interesting to see what

599
00:30:08,720 --> 00:30:12,080
Speaker 1: Glasner does. Went to a three four three this post

600
00:30:12,080 --> 00:30:14,080
Speaker 1: and usual you know either what four two three one

601
00:30:14,160 --> 00:30:17,240
Speaker 1: or four four two that Roy Hodgson was playing obviously

602
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:19,240
Speaker 1: got a red card early against you know, Burnley, with

603
00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:21,640
Speaker 1: which you know it does make a difference. But they

604
00:30:21,960 --> 00:30:23,800
Speaker 1: they were dominating the match up to that. Right up

605
00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:25,640
Speaker 1: to that red card. I mean they were out shooting there.

606
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:28,000
Speaker 1: He had four shots to zero, like Burnley wasn't really

607
00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:32,080
Speaker 1: getting inside their final thirds. So, uh, a good performance

608
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:36,000
Speaker 1: at home against the Crystal Palace. It'll be interesting, you know,

609
00:30:36,080 --> 00:30:38,400
Speaker 1: as I is coming back here, uh not this, I

610
00:30:38,440 --> 00:30:42,680
Speaker 1: believe at the next match and same thing with Mark Gahee.

611
00:30:42,800 --> 00:30:46,840
Speaker 1: So and encouraging news is that Check de Corey signed

612
00:30:46,840 --> 00:30:50,960
Speaker 1: a long term contract today, so there could be you know,

613
00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:54,160
Speaker 1: like like you just said, going into next year, Palace

614
00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:56,440
Speaker 1: might be interesting by a team even if Lisa leaves,

615
00:30:56,480 --> 00:30:59,880
Speaker 1: like they might find somebody else. Maybe with Mithais Franca

616
00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:04,360
Speaker 1: could be an encouraging player going forward. So, especially in

617
00:31:04,400 --> 00:31:06,760
Speaker 1: Glasnow's system, I think three fourth three suits this Crystal

618
00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:09,080
Speaker 1: Palace team a lot better than you know, four four

619
00:31:09,160 --> 00:31:14,320
Speaker 1: two low block. So definitely ripe to pick off Spurs here.

620
00:31:14,800 --> 00:31:17,480
Speaker 2: Okay, uh, two more to get two before we joint

621
00:31:17,520 --> 00:31:21,360
Speaker 2: through Europe. Burnley plus two eighty against Bourne with the

622
00:31:21,480 --> 00:31:25,040
Speaker 2: Cherries are a minus one o six road favorite and

623
00:31:25,080 --> 00:31:28,760
Speaker 2: the draw is plus two sixty. This one is a

624
00:31:28,800 --> 00:31:32,880
Speaker 2: pretty I've got a yeah, I've got nothing really to

625
00:31:32,880 --> 00:31:33,800
Speaker 2: go here, so we can.

626
00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:38,120
Speaker 1: I don't. Burnley is just so such an uninteresting team

627
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:40,320
Speaker 1: to me. They're just they're just bad and they're just

628
00:31:40,360 --> 00:31:45,000
Speaker 1: showing no life of actually getting better. So yeah, they've

629
00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:47,360
Speaker 1: I don't know if I've bet at Burnley match in

630
00:31:47,360 --> 00:31:49,760
Speaker 1: a while, and I don't think I might. I will

631
00:31:50,080 --> 00:31:53,120
Speaker 1: going forward, so easy pass for me.

632
00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:56,480
Speaker 2: And we'll wrap up with Sheffield United as a sixteen

633
00:31:57,000 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 2: to one home against your Arsenal hold Oners minus five

634
00:32:02,000 --> 00:32:04,720
Speaker 2: fifty on the road. The drug six to one. It's

635
00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:08,680
Speaker 2: a Monday night football match, three pm, standalone, nothing going on,

636
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:10,840
Speaker 2: so I probably have a little bit of sprinkle on

637
00:32:10,960 --> 00:32:13,880
Speaker 2: like that. The Sheffield United money line. We'll see how

638
00:32:13,960 --> 00:32:16,520
Speaker 2: high it gets and I'll probably maybe even throw a

639
00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:21,280
Speaker 2: little flutter on the reverse puck line, the reverse run

640
00:32:21,320 --> 00:32:24,719
Speaker 2: line Sheffield United minus one and a half. But that

641
00:32:24,880 --> 00:32:28,600
Speaker 2: is not something I would recommend unless you are totally

642
00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:32,120
Speaker 2: okay with losing that and losing it quickly and losing

643
00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:36,560
Speaker 2: it drastically. So outside of that, anything here.

644
00:32:37,920 --> 00:32:40,000
Speaker 1: No, this is an easy pass, you know. I like

645
00:32:40,040 --> 00:32:41,640
Speaker 1: to for these matches. I like to look see like

646
00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:44,360
Speaker 1: what do I have Sheffield United? Well, I have the

647
00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:47,880
Speaker 1: projected I think at around fourteen and a half to one.

648
00:32:48,320 --> 00:32:53,720
Speaker 1: So really just an easy pass for me. I'm not

649
00:32:53,800 --> 00:32:55,760
Speaker 1: laying two goals with Arsenal on the road. I don't

650
00:32:55,800 --> 00:33:01,280
Speaker 1: really care how bad Sheffield United has been. Yeah, even

651
00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:04,680
Speaker 1: both teams to score. No has been priced out of range.

652
00:33:04,800 --> 00:33:08,160
Speaker 1: Arsenal wind Nail has been priced out as well. Interesting

653
00:33:08,160 --> 00:33:12,440
Speaker 1: that cheffild United could be without Ben Diaz and Chris

654
00:33:12,600 --> 00:33:17,640
Speaker 1: Archer for this match, so that is not encouraging if

655
00:33:17,680 --> 00:33:20,000
Speaker 1: you want to actually try to get Arsenal in transition.

656
00:33:20,160 --> 00:33:23,640
Speaker 1: So yeah, just I know it's Monday night football, but

657
00:33:23,720 --> 00:33:27,200
Speaker 1: this is very again a very uninteresting match, and just

658
00:33:27,240 --> 00:33:30,320
Speaker 1: pray to god Arsenal doesn't doesn't trip here.

659
00:33:31,320 --> 00:33:34,640
Speaker 2: Okay, that wraps up the Premier League onto Europe. This

660
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:40,040
Speaker 2: is all you will start with the Bundesliga. Here an

661
00:33:41,200 --> 00:33:42,959
Speaker 2: opportunity for you to bet Stuttgart.

662
00:33:43,640 --> 00:33:47,479
Speaker 1: Yes, I mean I've said it before, but Stutgart are

663
00:33:47,560 --> 00:33:50,160
Speaker 1: legitimately the third best team in the Bundesliga right now,

664
00:33:50,200 --> 00:33:53,320
Speaker 1: putting up rivaling underlying numbers that of Leverkusen right now.

665
00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:56,160
Speaker 1: It's because there's such a difficult team to prepare for.

666
00:33:56,360 --> 00:34:00,360
Speaker 1: They're really really good in possession. They want to threw

667
00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:01,880
Speaker 1: balls through the middle of the pitch. They want to

668
00:34:01,880 --> 00:34:06,320
Speaker 1: dominate it their zone fourteen, which is the zone right

669
00:34:06,400 --> 00:34:08,879
Speaker 1: in front, you know, right outside the eighteen yard box,

670
00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:10,319
Speaker 1: in the center of the pitch where the little half

671
00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:14,680
Speaker 1: circle is. That is like the most key area in

672
00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:18,080
Speaker 1: the football matches, Like who can dominate that area? Stutgart

673
00:34:18,080 --> 00:34:20,520
Speaker 1: have completed the third most passes in that little area

674
00:34:20,600 --> 00:34:23,360
Speaker 1: behind only Leverkusen and Byron Munich, just showing how good

675
00:34:23,440 --> 00:34:26,400
Speaker 1: they aren't playing through the middle. But they've also completed

676
00:34:26,440 --> 00:34:28,680
Speaker 1: the second most crosses of anybody into the penalty or

677
00:34:28,760 --> 00:34:31,200
Speaker 1: in the Bundesliga, so it just shows how difficult they

678
00:34:31,200 --> 00:34:34,319
Speaker 1: are to prepare for. Also, you know, they have two

679
00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:36,800
Speaker 1: unbelievable strikers and Michael, I want you to jot this

680
00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:39,440
Speaker 1: name down for Golden Boot at the Euros Dennis undof

681
00:34:39,840 --> 00:34:45,160
Speaker 1: who who's playing for Stutguard right now on loan from Brighton, Germany.

682
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:48,800
Speaker 1: They've had a striker problem forever, basically since mirasov Closa retired,

683
00:34:48,840 --> 00:34:51,960
Speaker 1: they haven't been able to find a striker. This guy, Michael,

684
00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:55,200
Speaker 1: he's in incredible form right now, point eighty five actually

685
00:34:55,480 --> 00:35:00,040
Speaker 1: ninety fourteen goals already on the season. Him and and

686
00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:03,239
Speaker 1: Jiasi haven't really played alongside each other very much. They've

687
00:35:03,239 --> 00:35:07,160
Speaker 1: played five matches together and you know up top both started.

688
00:35:07,920 --> 00:35:10,960
Speaker 1: In those five matches, two of them came against Byron

689
00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:14,080
Speaker 1: and Leverkusen. In those two matches they actually created three

690
00:35:14,080 --> 00:35:18,000
Speaker 1: expected goals, but the other three matches came against teams

691
00:35:18,000 --> 00:35:19,400
Speaker 1: in the bottom half of the table. With those two

692
00:35:19,560 --> 00:35:22,600
Speaker 1: up top, they created seven point six expected goals. They

693
00:35:22,600 --> 00:35:26,239
Speaker 1: are an absolutely lethal threat. And they're taking on a

694
00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:29,600
Speaker 1: Wolfsburg team that quite frankly, has stunk against good teams.

695
00:35:29,640 --> 00:35:32,080
Speaker 1: Against six matches against the top five in the Bundesliga,

696
00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:35,360
Speaker 1: they have a minus five point three expected gold differential

697
00:35:35,560 --> 00:35:38,520
Speaker 1: and their previous match in Stuttgart they conceded two point

698
00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:41,960
Speaker 1: seven expected goals. But Dennis undav Michael, he'll probably be

699
00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:44,279
Speaker 1: two two hundred and fifty to one, will be my

700
00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:47,719
Speaker 1: guests for Golden Boots, somewhere in that range. You might

701
00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:50,440
Speaker 1: not even start Germany's first matchup top. But if they

702
00:35:50,480 --> 00:35:52,640
Speaker 1: have striker problems and they struggle and they have this

703
00:35:52,680 --> 00:35:55,360
Speaker 1: guy waiting on the bench who is just an incredible

704
00:35:55,400 --> 00:35:58,239
Speaker 1: form for Stuttgart, he could come in match number two,

705
00:35:58,800 --> 00:36:00,480
Speaker 1: put a ball in the back of the net and

706
00:36:00,520 --> 00:36:02,480
Speaker 1: guess what he's up top for the rest of the Euros.

707
00:36:02,760 --> 00:36:05,120
Speaker 1: So just mark that down, just you know, write that

708
00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:07,200
Speaker 1: name down. If you're listening to this. It might he

709
00:36:07,280 --> 00:36:08,879
Speaker 1: might not even make the team. Quite frankly, you got

710
00:36:08,880 --> 00:36:10,360
Speaker 1: a call up. He's gonna get a call up for

711
00:36:10,440 --> 00:36:13,960
Speaker 1: these next couple friendlies for Germany. But if he makes

712
00:36:13,960 --> 00:36:18,480
Speaker 1: the squad, Michael, he's really their only striker that Germany has,

713
00:36:19,360 --> 00:36:20,440
Speaker 1: so at least a true striker.

714
00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:20,680
Speaker 2: Right.

715
00:36:21,200 --> 00:36:24,479
Speaker 1: So if you want a long shot, Dennis suoned off

716
00:36:24,520 --> 00:36:29,239
Speaker 1: Golden boot at the Euros and I'll live on here

717
00:36:29,280 --> 00:36:33,400
Speaker 1: to Italy, to Reno. Johno Bett minus one forty against Fiorentina.

718
00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:36,160
Speaker 1: I mean this is pretty simple. Another fate of Fiorentina

719
00:36:36,239 --> 00:36:38,680
Speaker 1: to Reno is a very difficult team to play, very

720
00:36:38,719 --> 00:36:40,959
Speaker 1: very good defensive team. They man mark all over the pitch.

721
00:36:41,040 --> 00:36:42,600
Speaker 1: They'd like to just they like to sit in a

722
00:36:42,680 --> 00:36:46,919
Speaker 1: mid block. Basically a very mirror image of a good

723
00:36:47,080 --> 00:36:48,800
Speaker 1: you know what they are, Michael, They're a mirror image

724
00:36:48,880 --> 00:36:53,520
Speaker 1: of Marcelo Bielsa's leads combined with Sean Dyches Everton, where

725
00:36:53,600 --> 00:36:56,680
Speaker 1: they are so good once you crossed the halfway point

726
00:36:56,719 --> 00:36:59,600
Speaker 1: in terms of man mark, pressing and how intense they are,

727
00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:02,360
Speaker 1: it's so difficult to play through them. So in a

728
00:37:02,440 --> 00:37:05,120
Speaker 1: league where you know, like Italy, where nobody presses anymore,

729
00:37:05,160 --> 00:37:06,600
Speaker 1: you know, if you're team is number one in field

730
00:37:06,600 --> 00:37:10,120
Speaker 1: till they're they're number one, and all these build up categories.

731
00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:13,600
Speaker 1: The last time they played Tourno, they struggled so badly

732
00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:16,520
Speaker 1: to play through them. Fourteen penalty box touches only half

733
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:19,719
Speaker 1: an expected goal created, So I think to Reno gives

734
00:37:19,760 --> 00:37:21,839
Speaker 1: them a lot of problems here, especially at home. They're

735
00:37:21,920 --> 00:37:24,280
Speaker 1: just quite frankly a better team based on underlying metrics.

736
00:37:24,320 --> 00:37:29,400
Speaker 1: So Torino Dromo bet minus won forty. Moving on to Spain,

737
00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:32,040
Speaker 1: you know, Michael, there's actually been a team in Spain

738
00:37:32,080 --> 00:37:35,480
Speaker 1: that's been more unlucky than Seltabego, and they're playing them

739
00:37:35,480 --> 00:37:38,800
Speaker 1: on Friday's Almiria, who's at the bottom of the table.

740
00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:42,120
Speaker 1: They haven't won a match yet this season, oh for

741
00:37:42,920 --> 00:37:46,360
Speaker 1: twenty six, having a nine draws, just drew Athletic Comingjin

742
00:37:46,400 --> 00:37:50,840
Speaker 1: over the weekend. But if you remove penalties, they have

743
00:37:50,880 --> 00:37:54,480
Speaker 1: a minus twenty three actual goal differential. Their non penalty

744
00:37:54,520 --> 00:37:59,880
Speaker 1: expected goal differential is minus four. They're expected points is

745
00:38:00,239 --> 00:38:02,719
Speaker 1: twenty five and they have nine on the season. Like

746
00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:07,120
Speaker 1: they've been they've only been awarded one penalty and they've

747
00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:12,960
Speaker 1: conceded nine. It's just been a categoric underperformance of epic proportions.

748
00:38:12,960 --> 00:38:15,879
Speaker 1: And I know that Celta Diego has conceded so many

749
00:38:15,880 --> 00:38:19,240
Speaker 1: goals in stoppage time, even in their last match against Cadiz,

750
00:38:19,320 --> 00:38:22,120
Speaker 1: they were winning and they conceded in the one hundredth minute.

751
00:38:22,160 --> 00:38:23,840
Speaker 1: This time, I think that might be the latest that

752
00:38:23,880 --> 00:38:26,600
Speaker 1: they've had this season. But I do believe Celta Vigo

753
00:38:26,719 --> 00:38:28,600
Speaker 1: is a little overvalued here. I mean you're looking at

754
00:38:28,600 --> 00:38:30,799
Speaker 1: them at minus one thirty minus one thirty five here

755
00:38:30,840 --> 00:38:33,200
Speaker 1: at home against a team that really doesn't have that

756
00:38:33,520 --> 00:38:35,880
Speaker 1: work much worse of underlying metrics. And now Maria is

757
00:38:35,880 --> 00:38:38,360
Speaker 1: actually a pretty good offense top seven unexpected goals, so

758
00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:41,839
Speaker 1: al marri A plus a half about plus one ten

759
00:38:42,360 --> 00:38:45,880
Speaker 1: against Cadiz only excuse me, against Selta Vigo only protected

760
00:38:45,920 --> 00:38:48,680
Speaker 1: them at plus one sixteen and when finally in France

761
00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:53,120
Speaker 1: Marseille minus one twenty on the road against Claremont Foot.

762
00:38:53,400 --> 00:38:56,680
Speaker 1: Marseille is in a weird position right now. They are

763
00:38:56,680 --> 00:38:59,560
Speaker 1: on their third manager of the season. Jean luig Essay,

764
00:38:59,680 --> 00:39:02,920
Speaker 1: who got fired from the Ivory Coast in the middle

765
00:39:02,920 --> 00:39:05,480
Speaker 1: of the group stage, now gets the job here at

766
00:39:05,520 --> 00:39:10,239
Speaker 1: Marseille after Gennaro Gatuso got fired, and they've had a

767
00:39:10,239 --> 00:39:12,520
Speaker 1: little bit of new manager bounce. You know, it's going

768
00:39:12,560 --> 00:39:17,160
Speaker 1: like going from that like really strict teacher to some

769
00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:21,040
Speaker 1: older substitute teacher who's just you know, kind of there

770
00:39:21,080 --> 00:39:24,279
Speaker 1: because he's bored, because Guessay is like seventy years old.

771
00:39:24,360 --> 00:39:27,640
Speaker 1: And they've scored you know, seven goals in their last

772
00:39:27,640 --> 00:39:31,759
Speaker 1: three last two matches with him in charge. Little breath

773
00:39:31,840 --> 00:39:34,880
Speaker 1: of fresh air. But Marseille, the unperformance for them has

774
00:39:34,920 --> 00:39:38,200
Speaker 1: been actually quite remarkable. This is kind of funny, Michael, So,

775
00:39:38,280 --> 00:39:41,560
Speaker 1: Marseille has nine draws on the season. In those nine draws,

776
00:39:41,960 --> 00:39:44,480
Speaker 1: they have won the expected goals battle in every single

777
00:39:44,520 --> 00:39:46,440
Speaker 1: match and have a plus eight point two expected gold

778
00:39:46,840 --> 00:39:50,480
Speaker 1: overhaul in nine draws. That's crazy, Like that's almost unheard of.

779
00:39:50,800 --> 00:39:53,200
Speaker 1: They're taking on Claremont Foot, who is the worst team

780
00:39:53,239 --> 00:39:56,080
Speaker 1: in France right now, worst expected gold differential, the team

781
00:39:56,120 --> 00:39:58,440
Speaker 1: that's most likely to be relegated, and before we get

782
00:39:58,440 --> 00:40:00,239
Speaker 1: out of this europe protection, I have a few mature

783
00:40:00,320 --> 00:40:06,719
Speaker 1: for everybody. Lejare to be relegated at eight to one,

784
00:40:07,640 --> 00:40:10,279
Speaker 1: third worst expected gole differential in League UN right now,

785
00:40:10,640 --> 00:40:15,080
Speaker 1: but are being priced above teams like Montpellier and Lorient

786
00:40:15,160 --> 00:40:17,480
Speaker 1: who have better underlying metrics than them. They're in a

787
00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:21,240
Speaker 1: bad run of form. They finish off the season playing

788
00:40:21,760 --> 00:40:25,120
Speaker 1: PSG Nice and Marseille. So if we even get to

789
00:40:25,160 --> 00:40:28,360
Speaker 1: a point, obviously France has gone to eighteen teams and

790
00:40:28,840 --> 00:40:32,520
Speaker 1: the third spot is a relegation playoff spot. But given

791
00:40:32,520 --> 00:40:36,319
Speaker 1: their bad underlying metrics, I think there's a very real

792
00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:38,440
Speaker 1: shot that they could be in that third spot and

793
00:40:38,680 --> 00:40:40,440
Speaker 1: you get an eight to one shot on you know

794
00:40:40,440 --> 00:40:42,520
Speaker 1: whoever's coming up from the second division to play them.

795
00:40:42,600 --> 00:40:47,520
Speaker 1: So a little French future for everybody for the weekend.

796
00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:50,120
Speaker 1: Lejare because they played they played breast this weekend on

797
00:40:50,120 --> 00:40:51,680
Speaker 1: the roads, they're most likely going to lose their so

798
00:40:51,719 --> 00:40:54,040
Speaker 1: their odds probably in a plumbing after that. So le

799
00:40:54,160 --> 00:40:56,719
Speaker 1: have re to be relegated eight to one as well,

800
00:40:56,719 --> 00:40:58,160
Speaker 1: along with Marcee minus one twenty.

801
00:40:58,440 --> 00:41:02,799
Speaker 2: Okay, thank you for that tour through Europe onto our underdogs.

802
00:41:03,600 --> 00:41:04,520
Speaker 1: For today, I'll start.

803
00:41:04,840 --> 00:41:07,680
Speaker 2: I like Palace at plus five to fifty against Spurs.

804
00:41:08,480 --> 00:41:10,759
Speaker 2: Like I said, I think that this Palace team is

805
00:41:10,920 --> 00:41:13,239
Speaker 2: under glassener is going to be a bye as they

806
00:41:13,239 --> 00:41:14,719
Speaker 2: start to play a little bit more on the front

807
00:41:14,719 --> 00:41:17,920
Speaker 2: foot catch teams, and I think that's specially pretty conducive

808
00:41:17,920 --> 00:41:20,319
Speaker 2: to catching a team like Spurs who want to play

809
00:41:20,320 --> 00:41:22,520
Speaker 2: a little bit with more risk in their feet. So

810
00:41:22,680 --> 00:41:25,000
Speaker 2: Palace to pick them off on the road plus five fifty.

811
00:41:25,080 --> 00:41:26,520
Speaker 1: I think that Tottenham.

812
00:41:26,560 --> 00:41:29,160
Speaker 2: Time for Tottenham to finally lose as a as a

813
00:41:29,160 --> 00:41:33,959
Speaker 2: big favorite has come. So I'll take the Eagles. Oliver

814
00:41:34,080 --> 00:41:35,399
Speaker 2: Glassner's Eagles. Here.

815
00:41:35,600 --> 00:41:39,560
Speaker 1: What do you got? I got Majorca on the island

816
00:41:40,160 --> 00:41:45,000
Speaker 1: against Girona plus two twenty. So obviously we've known for

817
00:41:45,080 --> 00:41:47,680
Speaker 1: many years that Majorca has been way per performances have

818
00:41:47,719 --> 00:41:49,960
Speaker 1: been much better on the island than they have been

819
00:41:49,960 --> 00:41:51,719
Speaker 1: on the road. They just had a great performance. They're

820
00:41:51,719 --> 00:41:55,040
Speaker 1: going to the Copa del Ray finals after beating Real

821
00:41:55,080 --> 00:41:58,600
Speaker 1: Asocidad over two legs. So they played Jirona in the

822
00:41:58,600 --> 00:42:02,799
Speaker 1: Copa del Ray finals at home and they pumped three

823
00:42:02,840 --> 00:42:06,040
Speaker 1: goals past them in rapid succession. They're a team that's

824
00:42:06,400 --> 00:42:09,960
Speaker 1: really really good in transition, which is where Corona struggles.

825
00:42:10,400 --> 00:42:13,799
Speaker 1: And it's again, Grona really wasn't that impressive for a

826
00:42:13,960 --> 00:42:17,200
Speaker 1: large stretch against Bacona on Monday. Then they score a goal,

827
00:42:17,480 --> 00:42:19,000
Speaker 1: they get a red card, they score two goals in

828
00:42:19,000 --> 00:42:21,279
Speaker 1: stoppage time and it's like, oh my gosh, three zero win,

829
00:42:21,440 --> 00:42:24,000
Speaker 1: Like great performance from Gerna win. It's like, yeah, they

830
00:42:24,000 --> 00:42:26,520
Speaker 1: were really bad for like the first fifty minutes and

831
00:42:26,520 --> 00:42:30,360
Speaker 1: then suddenly you know, they turned things around. But I

832
00:42:30,440 --> 00:42:33,239
Speaker 1: predicted this match pretty close to a pick them. So

833
00:42:33,480 --> 00:42:35,440
Speaker 1: my Orca on the Island plus two twenty, I think

834
00:42:35,520 --> 00:42:36,520
Speaker 1: is a fantastic price.

835
00:42:36,920 --> 00:42:41,080
Speaker 2: Okay, on to your best bets. I like, I'm gonna

836
00:42:41,080 --> 00:42:42,399
Speaker 2: do it. I'm just gonna go right back to evert

837
00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:44,680
Speaker 2: In here is a money line favorite. They're plus one

838
00:42:44,719 --> 00:42:46,680
Speaker 2: oh five at home against west Ham. I think if

839
00:42:46,680 --> 00:42:49,440
Speaker 2: you look at these two teams, Everyting is fully deserving

840
00:42:49,680 --> 00:42:53,239
Speaker 2: of their favoritism on the three way line here, they're

841
00:42:53,239 --> 00:42:55,680
Speaker 2: a better team than west Ham. The underlying metrics look good.

842
00:42:55,920 --> 00:42:58,840
Speaker 2: Just west Ham has just been catching a ton of breaks.

843
00:42:58,840 --> 00:43:01,840
Speaker 2: They're winning games in the big moments. Full credit to

844
00:43:01,880 --> 00:43:04,120
Speaker 2: them forgetting the results. But this evident team has it

845
00:43:04,280 --> 00:43:07,400
Speaker 2: won in almost two and a half months now, and

846
00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:12,439
Speaker 2: I think that that slide ends here at Goodison Park

847
00:43:12,719 --> 00:43:15,520
Speaker 2: should be a point crowd after the points deduction was

848
00:43:17,080 --> 00:43:19,640
Speaker 2: slashed a bit. So take Everyton plus one oh five.

849
00:43:19,680 --> 00:43:23,840
Speaker 1: I guess west Ham Lutontown aston Villa over three goals

850
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:27,640
Speaker 1: at minus one twenty. Lowtontown have established that their only

851
00:43:27,719 --> 00:43:30,239
Speaker 1: method of actually staying in the Premier League is going

852
00:43:30,280 --> 00:43:32,440
Speaker 1: to have be that they're going to play very aggressive.

853
00:43:32,600 --> 00:43:34,600
Speaker 1: So you saw against Manchester City in the FA Cup

854
00:43:34,680 --> 00:43:37,200
Speaker 1: on Tuesday that they man marked Manchester City all over

855
00:43:37,239 --> 00:43:40,240
Speaker 1: the pitch and what it resulted in is Earln Collin

856
00:43:40,280 --> 00:43:42,879
Speaker 1: getting in behind time and time again on their way

857
00:43:42,920 --> 00:43:45,080
Speaker 1: to scoring six goals. They're going to play the exact

858
00:43:45,120 --> 00:43:47,279
Speaker 1: same way against aston Villa because they have established that

859
00:43:47,280 --> 00:43:49,120
Speaker 1: they're not good enough in a low defensive block where

860
00:43:49,120 --> 00:43:51,680
Speaker 1: they tried to zonal mark. Olie Watkins is so good

861
00:43:51,719 --> 00:43:54,160
Speaker 1: at running and behind defenders and it's going to cause

862
00:43:54,160 --> 00:43:56,520
Speaker 1: a lot of problems for Lootontown. The flip side of it, though,

863
00:43:56,640 --> 00:43:59,000
Speaker 1: is is that aston Villa has kind of struggled and

864
00:43:59,000 --> 00:44:00,600
Speaker 1: build up from time to time, so Luton Town is

865
00:44:00,600 --> 00:44:02,279
Speaker 1: gonna press them high. They could nick a couple high

866
00:44:02,320 --> 00:44:05,000
Speaker 1: turn numbers off them, and aston Villa is also the

867
00:44:05,040 --> 00:44:08,319
Speaker 1: worst team of defending set pieces. They're obviously without all

868
00:44:08,360 --> 00:44:10,680
Speaker 1: of their good ball stoppers right now with Kamara being

869
00:44:10,719 --> 00:44:13,560
Speaker 1: out of the season, Diego Carlos also being out along

870
00:44:13,560 --> 00:44:16,520
Speaker 1: with Concept. What those three guys also are are their

871
00:44:16,640 --> 00:44:20,960
Speaker 1: best defenders on set pieces. So with Lutontown, which is

872
00:44:20,960 --> 00:44:23,920
Speaker 1: a main off of corners, which is a main method

873
00:44:23,920 --> 00:44:25,840
Speaker 1: of how they've actually scored a lot of their goals.

874
00:44:26,040 --> 00:44:27,880
Speaker 1: They're gonna have a big advantage there, so there is

875
00:44:27,920 --> 00:44:30,960
Speaker 1: definitely a path for Lutontown to get aston Villa in

876
00:44:30,960 --> 00:44:34,040
Speaker 1: transition without all his ball stoppers to get on set pieces.

877
00:44:34,080 --> 00:44:37,839
Speaker 1: So this match for me, has the makings of end

878
00:44:37,880 --> 00:44:40,760
Speaker 1: to end basketball style match, which is what Lutontown wants

879
00:44:40,840 --> 00:44:43,799
Speaker 1: right now. So I projected four point two goals. I

880
00:44:43,840 --> 00:44:45,880
Speaker 1: love over three goals at minus one twenty. It's probably

881
00:44:45,880 --> 00:44:48,800
Speaker 1: one of my favorite plays of the entire Premier League season. Today.

882
00:44:49,040 --> 00:44:50,120
Speaker 1: There we go, all right.

883
00:44:50,280 --> 00:44:52,439
Speaker 2: I should have noted that that underdog parbably like pace

884
00:44:52,480 --> 00:44:54,719
Speaker 2: at twenty to one for the two legs, So good

885
00:44:54,760 --> 00:44:58,320
Speaker 2: luck if you placed that. We will be back next week.

886
00:44:58,680 --> 00:45:00,759
Speaker 2: Until then, best of luck with all your bets. Thank

887
00:45:00,760 --> 00:45:03,400
Speaker 2: you for listening to Wonder Goal. Thank you for rating, reviewing,

888
00:45:03,440 --> 00:45:05,680
Speaker 2: and subscribing. If you already have, please do if you haven't.

889
00:45:05,680 --> 00:45:07,839
Speaker 2: Thank you to our producer Noah for the hard work

890
00:45:07,880 --> 00:45:10,160
Speaker 2: on the back end, and we will see you in

891
00:45:10,200 --> 00:45:15,040
Speaker 2: a few days.

892
00:45:15,960 --> 00:45:20,480
Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

893
00:45:20,520 --> 00:45:23,279
Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem. Help is

894
00:45:23,320 --> 00:45:26,480
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